KC Royals: Dumb Luck Saved Zack Greinke Trade

Apr 8, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

[Editor’s Note: I wrote this story back on July 8. Since then, both Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain won ALCS MVP trophies. They also formed the bedrock of a championship defense]

In December of 2010, KC Royals ace Zack Greinke wasn’t happy. The 27-year-old former Cy Young award winner was sick of losing. And the Royals had just finished a 67-95 season.

Greinke had played seven years in the big leagues, and had yet to play for a team that won more than it lost.

Feeling trapped with two more years remaining on his Kansas City Royals contract, Greinke’s agent showed up at the winter meetings and made sure all of baseball knew his client wasn’t happy.

Greinke left KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore with few alternatives. Greinke had slept-walked his way through the 2010 season to a 10-14 record, with a 4.17 ERA—nearly double his 2.16 ERA during his Cy Young season in 2009. If Moore insisted that Greinke honor his contract, he risked another uninspired performance from Greinke that would do nothing but hurt his trade value.

Moore’s best option was to give Zack Greinke what he wanted.

Kansas City Royals fans know what happened next. Dayton Moore, and the Royals front office, made the best of a bad situation. The KC Royals dealt ace Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers in December of 2010 in return for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress.

The deal worked out better than any KC Royals fan could have hoped. Four years later, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar anchored a defense that carried the franchise to its first World Series appearance in 29 years. If anything, the trade turned out to be a screaming success that ended up better than two more years of Greinke.

Certainly, general manager Dayton Moore, and his front office staff, deserve credit for landing four prospects with major-league futures. Yet, looking at the deals they wanted to make, but could not, shows that the Kansas City Royals enjoyed a lot of good luck.

With the benefit of five years hindsight, we can see that Greinke forced the KC Royals brain trust into what turned out to be the best possible trade they could have made.

Let’s look at the other deals Dayton Moore tried to make, with a nod to yesteryear’s Royals super-blogger Rany Jazayerli—whose thorough analysis of the alternative deals Dayton Moore pursued provided the background for this story:

Next: The Royals Wanted A Guy With Superstar Upside

Jun 14, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners designated hitter

(63) hits a single against the Texas Rangers during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Former Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski blasted the Greinke trade because he thought none of the players the KC Royals acquired in the deal had “star” potential. He believed Dayton Moore had acquired a collection of useful parts, but no true difference maker.

Five years later, Lorenzo Cain’s emergence makes Posnanski’s objections look silly. Yet, JoPo’s reservations were well founded.

More from KC Royals News

• KC Royals Rumors: Is a monster move in the cards?
• KC Royals Free Agent Hunt: 3 Tampa Bay pitchers
• Grading the 2022 KC Royals: The $25 million man
• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Expectations met
• KC Royals Winter Meetings Tracker: Day 3 update

At the time, Escobar looked like he didn’t have the bat to be a star, Cain was 25-years-old (rather long in the tooth for a prospect) and still raw, Odorizzi looked like more like a mid-rotation guy rather than a top end talent, and Jeremy Jeffress was a reliever who threw 100 mph but struggled with substance abuse issues.

In fact, one could speculate that the KC Royals front office might have agreed with Posnanski. Rumor had it that the Kansas City Royals wanted to cut a deal for then-Yankees catching prospect Jesus Montero—whom Baseball America rated as the third best prospect in the game behind two guys named Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.

According to Jazayerli, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal heard the Royals wanted to trade Greinke for Montero and Eduardo Nunez, but the Yankees refused.

That deal would have been a disaster for Kansas City.

Montero, to put it bluntly, has been a bust. At 25-years-old in 2015, Montero has a career .258/.302/.396 line and has not been able to stick at catcher. That .698 OPS simply doesn’t play at either DH or first base—which are the only two positions Montero can fill on a major-league team.

Now with Seattle, after the Yankees dealt him for pitcher Michael Pineda, Jesus Montero is playing at AAA in the Mariners system.

Meanwhile, Eduardo Nunez plays for the Twins as a utility infielder with a perfectly respectable triple slash of .291/.333/.485 this season. However, that line has come in only 112 plate appearances and isn’t consistent with his career slash line of .266/.308/.390.

Even more telling, Nunez is 28-years-old and has never earned more than 336 plate appearances in a season over his six-year career.

Had Dayton Moore managed to convince the Yankees to accept this deal, he probably wouldn’t be the KC Royals general manager today. He’d have been fired.

Next: Another Rumored Deal That Would Have Led To Disaster

Mar 6, 2014; Peoria, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman

(13) hits a grand slam home run against the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees weren’t the only suitors for Zack Greinke’s services. The Kansas City Royals share a spring facility with the Texas Rangers, and their Surprise, Arizona co-residents were among the favorites to land the KC ace.

The 2011 Rangers were an excellent team that ended up coming within one out of winning the World Series before falling to the Cardinals. Greinke could have been the difference maker that put them over the top.

The Rangers also had ample prospects to make a deal, including players with more perceived upside than Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi, and Jeffress. But, they failed to pull the trigger.

Betsided

The most common package rumored to be on the table was a trade that would have sent pitcher Tanner Scheppers, shortstop Jurickson Profar, and centerfielder Engel Beltre to the KC Royals.

This deal would have been another disaster for the Kansas City Royals.

Tanner Scheppers did not become the starter scouts expected. Instead, he’s been nothing more than a rather pedestrian reliever  with 158.0 innings pitched in his career for a mediocre 3.82 ERA and an ERA+ of 109 (9% better than a league-average pitcher).

Both Engel Beltre and Jurickson Profar were thought to have much more upside than Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. In 2013, Baseball America rated the then 20-year-old Profar the no. 1 prospect in all of baseball, while Beltre was 21-years-old in 2011 with much more development time ahead of him than Cain.

However, both Profar and Beltre have produced little in their careers.

Beltre, in particualr, has been a complete bust. At age 25, he’s only earned 42 plate appearances in the major leagues. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in the minors either, with a disappointing .262/.309/.380 triple slash.

Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons. He’s been out of baseball pretty much the last two years, and faces an uncertain road to recovery due to a torn labrum (shoulder).

Had the Kansas City Royals made this trade, pundits across baseball would have had great fun ramming metaphorical clown shoes on Dayton Moore’s feet for the past five years.

Next: Royals Actually Agree To Deal With Nationals, But Greinke Nixed It