Kansas City Royals Eric Hosmer Is The Next….???

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Taking a look at Grace, you can see Hosmer looks like a pretty similar hitter. Grace debuted at age 24 while Hosmer was called up at 21…however, Grace was a guy who moved through the minors quickly. The age difference is due to his playing college ball. Grace spent two years in the minors and was called up in year three of his career after playing 21 games at AAA in 1988. Hosmer spent roughly the same amount of time moving through the Kansas City Royals’ system – Grace played a total of  270 minor league games versus Hosmer’s 291.

Power was never a big part of Grace’s repertoire…he only made it into double digit HR territory 8 times in 16 seasons. Hosmer should have no trouble reaching double digits in just about every season he plays. That alone seems like it would be enough to differentiate Hosmer from Grace. But taking a closer look, comparing the per 162 game averages of their first four seasons (meaning I’m not looking at Hosmer’s 2015)…we see the following numbers:

[table id=17 /]

[table id=18 /]

So the slash lines tilt in Grace’s favor here…although Hosmer slightly outslugs him. And keep in mind that Grace started his career at age 24. Hosmer was just shy of 2,400 plate appearances at the end of his age 24 season. If one of these guys can be considered a “phenom”, it’s going to be Hosmer.

Where Grace always excelled was batting average and his on base skills…and he hit a lot of doubles. As you can see above, the two are close in doubles and triples, Hosmer has a solid advantage in homers, and Grace drew a lot more walks (leading to nearly a 50 point OBP advantage).

To be fair…Hosmer is at his age 25 season in year five of his career…Grace was 25 in year two. Hosmer’s got a lot more potential to develop into something much more over the next decade, and is showing more grace (yeah…I went there) in his plate apperances thus far in 2015. It’s a small sample size, to be sure, but through 120 PA, Hosmer has 13 BB and just 22 K to go along with a .395 OBP. Hosmer is also off to a faster start than usual this year with his slugging, already logging 4 HR, 7 doubles, and 2 triples (good for a .538 SLG).

Next: Is Hosmer more like Will the Thrill?

Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It’s that type of slugging that reminds me of the other guy I mentioned above, Will Clark.

Clark had a more similar path to the majors…debuting at age 22. Like Grace, Will “The Thrill” also played college ball, but broke through with the Giants after only 71 minor league games. Still though…even with the college background, Clark and Hosmer have a more comparable career path by age. Again, let’s look at their first four years in the majors:

[table id=19 /]

Not a fair comparison, right? Clark came out of the gates an MVP candidate with a 155 OPS+ in his first four seasons. After managing just 11 home runs in year one (in which he played 111 games), he then hit 35, 29, and 23 homers over the next three years, respectively, for an average of 29 homers per year. Hosmer has shown nowhere near that power, yet, and he may not.

After 1991, though, Clark didn’t show that kind of power either. From 1992 through the end of his career in 2000, Clark hit 138 homers, which works out to 15 per year on average. His slugging dropped from .524 in his first four years to .483 in his final nine. Still no slouch though, Clark had a slash line of .305/.393/.483 for an .876 OPS. Hosmer would do well to have a run like that.

So…what about Hosmer? What do we make of him at this point? He’s had a couple of really good years (2011 and 2013), a bad year (2012) and an “okay” year in 2014. Hosmer, though, on the grand stage of the MLB postseason, gave the nation a taste of his potential. He became a local legend and made fans in other cities take notice. In his 15 postseason games, Hosmer had a slash of .351/.439/.544 in 66 plate appearances. Talk about small sample size.

However…something may have clicked in that run through the playoffs. Hosmer has picked up in 2015 where he left off versus the Giants, slashing .317/.395/.538, in what could shape up to be a very Clarkesque (I’m not sure anyone has ever used Clarkesque…trademarking it) season.

Next: Actually, now that we think of it....

So I guess we’re finished. Hosmer is the next Will Clark, right? Well…there is one other guy that comes to mind…Keith Hernandez.

Hernandez, like Hosmer, was a high school draftee and played bits of his age 20 and 21 seasons in the big leagues before sticking for good at age 22. Like Grace, Hernandez never had a lot of power, averaging 12 homers per 162 in his first four seasons. Here are his numbers:

[table id=20 /]

In his age 25 season (his fourth full year) Hernandez won the National League MVP playing first base for the Cardinals. He slashed .344/.417/.513 and won his second Gold Glove.

Hosmer probably won’t hit .344 this year…but those other numbers? I don’t know. Maybe. And I’m sure he’s well on his way to Gold Glove number three. Again…it’s only been 27 games, but Hosmer’s .933 OPS and 156 OPS+ are pretty similar to the .930 and 151 Hernandez produced 36 years ago. Plus Hosmer has enough swagger to pull off something like this.

Next: Who is Eric Hosmer?

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

So…1,000 words later…which of these guys does Hosmer compare to, really? Well…maybe none of them. Or maybe all of them. They all got off to much faster and more consistent starts than Hosmer. We still really don’t know what Hosmer is, exactly. But, I’d say he’s an amalgamation of Hernandez and Clark if you forced me to pick one (or I guess two – Eric Clarknandez?). He’s got the defensive prowess of Hernandez and potentially the on-base skills as well. Hosmer’s going to hit for a lot more power than Hernandez, though. Hernandez had 162 career homers and Hosmer already has 63.

That said…will Hosmer have power like Will Clark? I don’t think we’ll  see anything quite like Clark’s early run, but maybe not too far off that mark. In 2015, Hosmer is homering once every 26 at bats. Assuming he racks up 600 at bats this year, that puts him on pace for 25 homers.

Comparing this pace to his other seasons, we see he homered every 27.5 AB in 2011, every 28 AB in 2012, every 36.6 AB in 2013, and every 55.8 AB in 2014. So he’s been on a downward trend since his rookie year, until now. He’s currently homering at the best clip (just barely) of his career. That could translate into even more power as heads into his prime, or 2015 could be an anomaly. Next year, Hosmer could hit 14 homers for all we know.

In the end…if Hosmer’s time with the Kansas City Royals looks at all similar to what any of these guys did when at their best…I think we’d all be pretty happy, right?

Next: Kansas City Royals Options to Fix the Rotation