Kansas City Royals Bold Predictions for 2015

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Mike Moustakas Edition (part one)

We had three different predictions about Mike Moustakas, and all were positive. First, staff writer Carl Stewart:

Not only do I want some Moose Tacos, but also I want to buy a Moose Tacos cart to park beside the outfield fountains. This is the year Mike Moustakas breaks out of his slumping ways and proves himself to the world. Instead of eating crow, all of the majestic Moose’s detractors will be eating Moose Tacos this year while watching the career year he will have.

The powerful and noble Grecian Moose has been much maligned throughout his Big League career: underperforming, frustrating himself and everyone else, and destroying the hope that he would even be a mediocre ballplayer. All the doubts, frustrations, and woes end this year though. Building on his successful postseason display of power, the mighty Moose will unleash the beastly powers of his ancestors to terrorize the league with Herculean feats of defensive and offensive prowess. One of his detractors over at FanGraphs even thinks the Moose could be loose this year with his BB% trending up, his SO% trending down, and his power on the rise.

I am willing to go a step further and be so bold as to say Moose will go into beast mode this year. After an initial slump coming out of Spring Training, Moose will begin to display the power potential he has always been capable of displaying. It will come in streaks, but Moose will power his way to an impressive 29 dingers, a batting average north of .260, and around 75 RBI for the regular season as well as compete for a Gold Glove. The Greek gods of old will gather around the K, watching their mighty champion battle for the forces of good and power the Kansas City Royals to further postseason glory. Moose’s success will also propel Hosmer and Salvy to up their game to compete with the feasting of Moose Tacos.

Next: The famous Chapter Two

Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Moustakas was quite the topic among our writers, and quite the focal point for optimism. Aaron Reese had this prediction:

Bold predictions are the kind of high risk/high reward writing I tend to avoid. I like safe bets, comfortable bets–bets that leave me believing I will probably win. I avoid casinos and I write about baseball the way I make life decisions, based on likelihood and probability (Ethics are in there somewhere too).

I prefer projection to prediction. Projection is probability. It tempers optimism and pessimism with data and trend analysis. It provides nice safe bets, where the over/under is never out of control. Basically, projections are perfect for me. Bold predictions are the antithesis of projections. So, if I’m going to break out and make a bold prediction, I may as well go for broke, right?

Mike Moustakas will hit 26 home runs and have a .430 SLG.

Moustakas has been uninspiring at the major league level. Most analysts have given up on him. He’s twenty-six years old with an ever-dwindling OPS. He has only hit 27 home runs in the past two seasons combined. He’s exposed up-and-in. He pops out too much. He can’t hit the other way. But, he has legitimate power.

However, Moustakas has given some reasons for optimism. He swings out of the strike zone less and less as he plays. In the past three seasons, his O-Swing% has dropped progressively, 37.6%, 35%, 33.8%. Since he’s come to the majors, the average speed of home runs off his bat has also increased from 102.3 mph to 106.2 mph. From 2012, his swing-and-miss rate has dropped from 10.8% to 7.5%. His average flyball distance has improved from 279 ft in 2012 to 283 ft in 2014.

If those incremental improvements take the next step (and we ignore the more troubling trends), we’re looking at a real power hitter.

Next: All Moustakas, all the time

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

We did say that Mike Moustakas was a popular topic. In fact, expectations for what would be a breakout year for Moustakas were pretty similar. Here are Mike Vamosi’s thoughts on Moustakas for the 2015 season:

Bold Prediction for 2015: Mike Moustakas hits 25 home runs – To me this feels pretty bold even with the fact that as recently as 2012 he hit 20 home runs. Now, last season he hit 15 which was a disappointment for most of the fanbase. I’m banking on this prediction based on what happened in the postseason, where he hit five, to have a carryover effect in 2015. The Kansas City Royals drafted Moustakas to be a middle of the line-up hitter and provide a 1-2 punch complimented by Eric Hosmer, which has been hit or miss recently by both. For whatever reason, when Ned Yost put Moose ninth in the line-up, it seemed the pressure dropped for him and his production increased.

Now, I’m not smart enough to put the two things together, however with Yost maintaining for now that his Opening Day line-up will look like the one in October, he will have Moustakas last again. I feel it will trigger a reemergence for the 26 year old.

While Hunter and others dive deeper into analytics (which for the record I like) about players, for me, this is more on just a feeling and it meets the bold criteria we were asked for the purpose of this post. For the Kansas City Royals to meet or improve on last season, they’ll need Moose as well as others to increase their 2014 production,  giving them an opportunity for another magical season.

Next: The Royals new second baseman

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For all the optimism surrounding Mike Moustakas, the same cannot be said about second baseman Omar Infante. In fact, his job security with the Kansas City Royals may be in question, at least according to writers Alan Todd and Ethan Evans. Here are Alan’s expectations:

Christian Colon will be the starting second baseman for the Kansas City Royals by June 1, after Omar Infante injures his shoulder diving for a ground ball and needs season-ending surgery.

Colon goes on to hit .290, with 25 doubles, three triples and six home runs. He adds 15 stolen bases and finishes third in Rookie of the Year voting in the American League. Infante is packaged after the season with one of the Royals big four relievers, yet General Manager Dayton Moore must agree to eat part of Infante’s remaining two years of salary to make the trade.

Ethan gave several predictions, and here is what he had to say on Infante:

I think that Christian Colon will be the Royals starting second-baseman by the end of the season as I believe the breakdown of Omar Infante is (sadly) only beginning.

Next: A possible Silver Slugger

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Before Salvador Perez fell off the map in the second half of 2014, he was on pace for a Silver Slugger caliber season. He went into the All-Star break with a .765 OPS and 11 homers. The eventual winner, Yan Gomes, headed into the break with a .742 OPS and 12 homers. Sal’s career numbers actually side with his strong first half, so it is reasonable to believe that he just ran out of gas in the second half.

The interesting aspect of this matchup is that Gomes and Perez had very similar top layer numbers. Gomes out homered Sal (21) but Sal wasn’t far behind (17). Neither guy is apt at drawing walks, as both garnering below 25 free passes in 2014, but Gomes pedestrian OBP (.313) still left Sal’s in the dirt (.289), which explains the larger gap in OPS. Gomes OPS was nearly 100 points higher than Perez and his OPS+ of 122 blew Sal’s gnarly 90 OPS+ out of the water.

However, we have seen Sal hit and I don’t think it’s crazy to envision, with a few more days off, that hits more like his 2014 first half self rather than his second half self. His biggest issue is his plate discipline, which is a fixable problem. He has very good contact skills and power upside. If he taps back into those, a Silver Slugger isn’t out of the question. It’s easy to forget that just a few years ago, any offense from Sal would have been icing on the cake. However, on a team starved for offense, his output is needed more than we expected back when he debuted. I would look for him to get back to the guy he was before he hit the wall last season, and that could very well put him in the Silver Slugger discussion.

Next: A few quick thoughts

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Here are a couple of quick thoughts. First, two more from Ethan:

The Kansas City Royals will have an even better bullpen than last year with the addition of Luke Hochevar. It almost doesn’t matter who you put out there on the mound to start the game. Almost.

I also think that Alex Gordon will be completely unaffected by all of this “should he have tried for home” nonsense and have his best year as a professional in 2015 maintaining his stellar defensive prowess and regaining his offensive dominance while hitting 25 home runs.

Brian Henry had a quick thought about the Kansas City Royals offense:

Since last year’s prediction on home runs went horribly wrong I might as well double down this spring.  I believe that Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, and Alex Rios are going to propel this offense to a new level by combining for 60+ HRs after only managing 21 together last year.  Both Hosmer and Morales will go over 20 and Rios in the 15 to 20 range.  Both Rios and Morales had rough years last year, but there is no reason to believe they are done as players in my opinion.  Projections are putting Hosmer in the upper teens in HRs so I am not as far out on a limb for him.

Next: A Cy Young candidate

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Co-editor Dave Hill has a prediction for a member of the Kansas City Royals who will appear in the Cy Young balloting this season:

If one was to expect a member of the Kansas City Royals to contend for the Cy Young Award, chances are Edinson Volquez would not be the first name you would think of. Volquez may not even be the third or fourth name to come to mind. Howevr, that does not mean anything.

Brought in to replace James Shields, Volquez actually posted similar numbers in 2014, producing a 3.04 ERA and a 1.230 WHiP. His control had improved considerably, as he began attacking the strike zone and relying more on his sinker. As the Pirates had one of the better infield defenses in baseball, this strategy certainly paid off.

As good as the Pirates defense was, the Kansas City Royals are the best defensive team in baseball. Edinson Volquez will feel even more comfortable pounding the zone, and will ride that new found control and the Royals defense to an even better season, winning twenty games and posting an ERA around 2.80. While he won’t win the Cy Young award, he will finish in the top three on the ballot.

Edinson Volquez won’t just replace James Shields – he will greatly outperform him.

Next: To the minors!

Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, we wrap up our bold predictions with a look at the minor leagues. Co-editor Hunter Samuels had this thought about Miguel Almonte:

I’m not very good at doing bold predictions when it comes to big league players anyway, and with this current Kansas City Royals roster, I don’t see any major breakout stars in waiting. However, I do think Miguel Almonte is going to have a big year in the minors, somewhere along the lines of a 2.95 ERA  with 9 K/9 over 125 innings between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. I’ll take it one step further and say he’ll be a September call-up to pitch out of the bullpen, in a similar role to Brandon Finnegan in 2014.

He’s got a live fastball that can touch the mid-90s, and a plus changeup that can get big league hitters out right now. While his ERA was an unsightly 4.49 last season in Wilmington, Almonte still missed bats (8.3 K/9) and limited his walks (2.6 BB/9). If his curveball continues to progress, the soon-to-be 22-year old will have a good shot at seeing time in the Royals rotation in 2016.

Meanwhile, our minor league expert, Jen Nevius, had this thought about John Lamb:

It has been a long time since people have legitimately talked about the lefty making the big leagues, let alone make an impact. I think 2015 is the year for Lamb.

I had the chance to see him up close during the 2013 season when he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. In Wilmington, he may have gotten knocked around (13 home runs and 109 hits) and his velocity was WAY down, but he fought and was aggressive. He didn’t walk many (just 19 in 92.2 innings). I honestly don’t think he was ready for the season to start, as he was shut down for a month in the middle of the season to build up arm strength. When he came back and right before his promotion to Omaha, he threw seven innings in his final three starts and struck out a total of 13.

In 2014, the velocity was back for Lamb. But the walks were WAY up (68 in 138.1 innings). His strikeouts were also up (131), but he gave up 137 hits (including 19 homers).

I think if Lamb combines the last two seasons: lowers the walks and keeps the strikeouts up, he should be successful. He cannot completely rely on his fastball and his offspeed pitches looked really good in Wilmington.

If Lamb makes an impact for the Kansas City Royals, that means that someone in the rotation either failed or got hurt. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but I think Lamb will be okay if he keeps his emotions in check (which has gotten him into trouble in the past).

Next: Kansas City Royals Top Five Right Fielders