Five Reasons Why the Royals Will Win the Central

4 of 7

Here we are, on August 12th. There are 45 games left in the regular season. And as it stands, the Royals – yes, the Kansas City Royals – are presently a half game in first place in the American League Central.

For a generation of Royals fans, this is virtually uncharted territory. The last time that the Royals led in August was back in 2003, when the Royals had their only winning season between 1994 and 2013. Even that team was not a real threat for the postseason, as the 2003 Royals were winning through a combination of career seasons by journeyman players and smoke and mirrors.

This year, there is a much different feel for the Royals in their pennant chase. It feels as though the Royals belong in the postseason. David Glass stated his expectations of a postseason berth. Dayton Moore has made several under the radar moves that have helped tweak the roster. With the Detroit Tigers essentially imploding, everything seems to be coming up Royals.

At the beginning of the year, even though it seemed possible that the Royals could contend for the American League Central, their best chance at a postseason berth would be as a Wild Card. Now, the Wild Card may be a fallback plan, as the Central is very much within reach.

It may be time to start planning for a Blue October. Here are five reasons why the Royals will win the American League Central.

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

5. The Tigers’ spate of injuries

There was a great deal of consternation after Eric Hosmer was placed on the disabled list just after the non-waiver trade deadline had passed. Yet, that injury to Hosmer seems almost minor compared to the injuries that the Detroit Tigers have had to deal with.

When the Tigers acquired David Price at the trade deadline, it seemed as though they had managed to build a rotation of four aces, giving them not only an inside track at the Central, but perhaps for the World Series as well. However, injuries have quickly mounted. Reigning ERA leader Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a strained pectoral muscle. Joakim Soria, who was acquired to shore up a bullpen that had been slightly less flammable than gasoline, went on the disabled list a day later with a strained abdominal.

Then came last night, when Justin Verlander left his start after one horrendous inning due to a sore shoulder. With the amount of work that he has had over the past few years, and his general ineffectiveness this season, it may be fair to wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Verlander. If he is out for any length of time, the Tigers suddenly find themselves having only two real top starters in the rotation, instead of the four they were banking on.

Max Scherzer and Price seem to be a lot easier to match up with. In fact, if Verlander is out for any length of time, the Royals may even find themselves with the better rotation at this point.

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

4. Veteran leadership

It is easy to mock the Royals for making moves such as picking up Raul Ibanez when his career appears to be on it’s last legs, or signing Scott Downs when no one else wanted them. Yet, despite Ibanez’s lack of production, he has been able to provide the Royals with something that they have truly needed – a veteran presence who knows what it takes to go on a deep run into the postseason.

That veteran leadership is a part of the reason why the Royals made their controversial trade for James Shields. Shields had been through the battles before with the Tampa Bay Rays. He was able to be a mentor for the young rotation, showing them the ropes of how to not only be major league players, but how to win. That intangible effect may be another reason why the Royals brought in Omar Infante, as he has also gone through those battles.

Detroit certainly has veteran leadership as well, and they have been through the wars of the postseason. However, they already knew what it takes to win down the stretch. The Royals, being a young team, have never been in this situation. In fact, aside from Ibanez, no one on the Royals can truly say what it is like to be in a pennant race in Kansas City late in the year. These veterans, who have been through pennant races before, can help to keep the Royals from getting ahead of themselves, and let them take each game as it comes.

With sabermetrics and statistical analysis, such concepts as ‘veteran leadership’ tend to get laughed at. However, for the Royals, that leadership seems to have made a major difference.

Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

3. Overall team depth

For years, the Tigers have attempted to win the World Series by having a collection of stars while filling out the rest of the roster with what have essentially been role players. This year, despite sending Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers, they still brought back Ian Kinsler. Players such as Doug Fister, Jhonny Peralta and Joaquin Benoit were jettisoned to keep the Tigers’ star players. Even the trade that brought David Price over cost the Tigers two solid pieces to the 2014 team in Drew Smyly and Austin Jackson.

Even though the Royals do not have the star power that the Tigers have, they are a deeper lineup. While Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez have been doing the majority of the damage for Detroit. The Royals, despite not having nearly the power that the Tigers have, possess a balanced lineup where everyone makes contact. They have the ability to continually put pressure on a defense, not only through the ability to make consistent contact, but through their speed as well.

Instead of relying upon a collection of role players and rookies to fill out their roster, the Royals brought in pieces to help their overall depth. Jason Vargas slotted in to replace Ervin Santana. Former Tiger Omar Infante has been the second baseman that the Royals have sought for years. Nori Aoki was expected to be the leadoff hitter that the Royals needed, and even though that move had not worked out, Aoki has been heating up as of late.

It may be strange to think of the Royals as having more depth than the Tigers, but it may also be correct. Eric Hosmer had been the Royals best hitter when he was injured, but they were able to replace him without issue. The Tigers, meanwhile, are scrambling to find depth in their rotation and bullpen. The Royals seem to have an advantage here as well.

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

2. Bullpen depth

Even if one takes away the 21 innings that the Tigers bullpen has pitched in the last two days, that is still a relief corps in shambles. Joe Nathan, who was signed to a two year deal to solve the Tigers problems at closer, has imploded, posting a 5.23 ERA and a 1.558 WHiP. The aforementioned Soria, who was brought in to solidify the bullpen, has not performed to expectations, posting a 10.13 ERA before getting injured. As a team, the Tigers bullpen has posted an ERA of 4.45.

Compare that struggling bullpen to the Royals. Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera give the Royals perhaps the most formidable back end of a bullpen in baseball. These three flamethrowers have made it a virtual certainty that if the Royals are leading after six innings, there will be another tally in the wins column.

That does not even include the rest of the bullpen. Jason Frasor, who the Royals acquired prior to the deadline, has not given up a run in his nine appearances. Francisley Bueno and Scott Downs have pitched well since the All-Star Break, posting ERAs of 2.35 and 2.70 respectively. Even with how well they have pitched, none of those three relievers have pitched over 7.2 innings in the second half.

A strong bullpen is considered vital to make a run at the postseason. The Royals certainly have an advantage over the Tigers there.

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

1. Defense

Seemingly every game, Alex Gordon or Alcides Escobar come up with a play that almost no one else in baseball would be able to make. The Royals defensive prowess is such that, even though they lost a Gold Glove first baseman in Eric Hosmer, they have no missed a beat. Billy Butler has filled in quite well, as the Royals have continued to be one of the better defensive teams in baseball.

Even though the Tigers are only two percentage points behind the Royals in fielding percentage, coming in at .983 compared to Kansas City’s .985, the Royals are truly light years ahead of Detroit on defense. For the season, according to FanGraphs.com, the Royals defense has saved 42.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Tigers difficulties on defense have led to them giving up 28.3 additional runs than a normal defense would have.

Despite the Royals recent power surge, they are not the type of team that will be able to consistently win by piling on the runs. They need to play a more defensive oriented game, relying upon their pitching and timely hitting to get a ‘W.’ Having a strong defense plays an important factor in why the Royals have been able to win this season.

The Tigers defensive weakness has been thought to be a possible Achilles Heel for the past few years. Now, with the injuries to their pitching staff, those problems defensively may loom even larger, especially compared to the Royals.

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

For the 2012 season, the Kansas City Royals used the slogan of “Our Time” to express the hopes of the organization. Unfortunately, that year resulted in a 72-90 record, making it easy to wonder if the Royals time would actually come. As it turns out, that slogan may have just been two years too soon.

Schedule