Tigers vs. Royals prediction and odds for Thursday, July 20 (Home Greinke)

Zach Greinke has been a completely different pitcher at home and on the road, so today is a day that the Royals will get good Greinke against Detroit.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke (23)
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke (23) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals have dropped two of their first three in this four-game series with their AL Central rivals, the Detroit Tigers. Kansas City is still looking for their 30th win of the season and come into the series finale at 28-69 against the 43-52 Tigers. 

Today, it will be Detroit’s All-Star on the mound to try and take the series win. Michael Lorenzen will make his 17th start of the year and is 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA for the Tigers. The Royals will counter, as they have for so many years, with Zack Greinke.

Greinke is 1-9 with a 5.44 ERA, but might be the starter to back in this one. 

Let’s get into the odds and see why Kansas City might be a live home underdog today. 

Tigers vs. Royals odds, run line and total

Tigers vs. Royals prediction and pick

For two straight seasons, Zack Greinke has been a completely different pitcher in Kansas City than he has been anywhere else. The Royals should just stop taking him with them on road trips because on the road this year he is 0-6 with a 7.42 ERA and has allowed 12 home runs in nine starts. At home though, Greinke is 1-3 with a 3.67 ERA and has allowed six homers in nine home starts. 

Home Greinke is the pitcher to back in this matchup even though Lorenzen was Detroit’s All-Star representative this season. Lorenzen has had back-to-back scoreless starts, first a 9-0 Detroit win against Oakland and then a 6-0 win against Seattle. However, in those starts he did not go deep into the game, just five innings against the A’s and 6.2 against the Mariners. He also had just four 11 strikeouts to five walks in those 11.2 innings. His expected ERA is 4.25 and I expect some regression to come for him soon. 

This will likely be a low-scoring one with these offenses and two good pitchers, however, I see more value backing Kansas City because of how well Greinke has pitched at home. There aren’t many opportunities to bet on a team that could reach 70 losses before they get to 30 wins, but this is one. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change