On paper, the Kansas City Royals have a tough weekend series ahead of them, having to take a trip to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees.
But, the Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games and are in danger of falling to .500 on the season.
So, how should we handle betting on the series opener? Well, let's jump into it.
Royals vs. Yankees odds, run line, and total
Royals vs. Yankees prediction and pick
Will the Yankees win tonight? It's probably if not probable. But, the betting game isn't just about betting on who you thinks going to win. It's about wagering on the side that you think has value and I can't pass up on the Royals tonight at +165 odds.
I have no interest betting on this slumping Yankees team and their offensive numbers over the past 30 days aren't that much better than the Royals. For example, the Yankees OPS sits at .689 over the past month, while the Royals are at .642.
Sure, New York's numbers are slightly better, but are they good enough to be -205 favorites? Absolutely not.
Let's not overthink Alec Marsh's early numbers this season. Sure, his 5.40 ERA isn't great, but he has faced some great offenses through his first three starts. The Dodgers and Rays have been two of his first three opponents. I expect a steady start from him tonight against the ice cold Yankees bats.
Let's take a shot on the Royals as road underdogs tonight.