The Kansas City Royals take on the Minnesota Twins on Independence Day for Game 2 of their three-game set.
Kansas City lost 8-4 – as expected – on Monday night against Twins star right-hander Joe Ryan. The team may have a better shot to compete on Tuesday night facing Kenta Maeda (1-5, 6.23 ERA).
Zack Greinke (1-8, 5.15 ERA) gets the ball for the Royals on July 4. The team is just 4-13 in Greinke’s 17 starts, and he was rocked by the Twins for seven runs the last time he faced them on April 27.
Can the veteran flip the switch on the road on Tuesday afternoon?
Here are the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup:
Royals vs. Twins odds, run line and total
Royals vs. Twins prediction and pick
The Royals have one of the worst offenses in baseball, but I don’t mind taking the OVER in this matchup.
Greinke has been up and down all season for Kansas City, lowering his ERA to 4.19 at the end of May, only to see it jump an entire run during the month of June.
He doesn’t give the team much length (just three starts where he’s completed six innings), and Kansas City’s bullpen is atrocious, ranking 28th in MLB in bullpen ERA.
As for Maeda, his season-long numbers are a bit skewed by one terrible outing where he gave up 10 runs to the New York Yankees. He has a much better Fielding Independent Pitching than his ERA (3.60 FIP), but he ranks in the FIRST percentile in average exit velocity against.
Kansas City was able to put up four runs in a game that Ryan started, so I’ll take a shot on the Royals and Twins going OVER nine runs on Tuesday afternoon.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.