There is an expectation for every team in Major League Baseball that when the Oakland A’s come to town you should sweep them. The Miami Marlins did that this weekend taking care of business in that three-game series to get to 32-28. Now, the expectation is the exact same with the 18-41 Kansas City Royals coming into town for three games. The Royals are coming off a 2-0 win yesterday against Colorado.
For Game 1 of this series in South Beach, the Royals will go with Carlos Hernandez against Braxton Garrett for Miami. Hernandez is making his third start of the season and it will be a bullpen day for KC. This is Garrett’s 11th start and so far he has worked to a 1-2 record and 4.22 ERA.
Let’s take a look at the odds for this one:
Royals vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Royals vs. Marlins prediction and pick
Kansas City is going with a bullpen game and that’s not exactly the best idea. Hernandez has made two prior starts this year and has gone two innings in each, both actually ended up being low-scoring games. However, the Royals are 28th in bullpen ERA this season, 4.74 and have issued the second most walks of any bullpen. As a staff they have a 4.99 ERA, but in the last seven days they are 12th in the MLB with a 3.34 ERA and have issued the second fewest number of walks of any team.
Despite the Royals recent successes on the mound, the team could still be in trouble against Miami. The Marlins are third in runs scored over that same week-long stretch with 30 and have a .780 OPS as a team. Luis Arraez is hitting an insane .392 for the season and is hitting .522 in the past week.
On the year, the Royals are one of the worst offensive teams in the sport, 27th in OPS and runs scored, however against lefties, like Garrett, they are slightly better. Their OPS jumps from .661 against righties to .730 against left-handers. Bobby Witt Jr. has a .943 OPS against left-handers to lead the team with half of his 10 homers coming off of lefties.
The Royals have had their games go under the total more than all but three teams in baseball this season, but I like them to hit the over in this one against Miami.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change