Dodgers vs. Royals prediction and odds for Sunday, July 2

A series win for the 24-59 Kansas City Royals is certainly not what I expected heading into this three-gamer with the 46-36 LA Dodgers, but after splitting the first two they Royals have a chance to take the rubber-match today. 

The only problem is that chance is very slim with 4-7 Brady Singer on the mound with his 5.88 ERA in 16 starts this season. Can Kansas City cook up some magic against Tony Gonsolin, who has only made 11 starts, but has a 4-2 record with a 3.30 ERA? Oddsmakers aren't counting on it. \

Here are the odds as we assess this series finale on Sunday.

Dodgers vs. Royals odds, run line and total

Dodgers vs. Royals prediction and pick

While it is possible that the Dodgers drop this series to the Royals it is not at all likely. However, this pitching matchup could be a bit more even than it looks initially. Tony Gonsolin is a pitcher who I often fade because of his elevated FIP that currently sits at 4.45. ERA typically regresses to where FIP is as it is a better predictor of future performance than ERA is. Speaking of FIP, Brady Singer’s is 4.43, somehow lower than Gonsolin’s. 

There is more to that story, like the fact that Singer is in the bottom 1% of pitchers in terms of hard hit rate and has an expected ERA of 5.56, while Gonsolin has an xERA of 4.26. Singer gets hit much harder than Gonsolin, but Singer’s 23rd percentile strikeout rate is only slightly worse than the Dodgers' starter, who is in the 26th percentile K%. 

In my eyes, neither of these pitchers are to be trusted and I’m fading both in this one by taking the over. I still think that the Dodgers win this one and close out the series win, but there is much more value taking the over, especially with the risk of Gonsolin regression. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change