3 KC Royals who will be better in 2025, 2 who will be worse

A year ago at this time, even the closest observers of the Kansas City Royals probably didn't foresee — and certainly weren't openly predicting — the spectacular success the club achieved in 2024. After all, turning around a calamity like the Royals' 106-loss season is next to impossible.

Eight months later, though, the club that was so awful the year before made it into the playoffs and won its American League Wild Card series matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. And although the Royals lost to the New York Yankees in the AL Division Series, their 2024 resurgence was unforgettably good.

Now, only one thing is certain about these Royals, and that's the uncertainty of what lies ahead. Did their offseason roster tinkering, not as extensive as last winter's successful overhaul, improve the Royals? Can KC again steer clear of major injuries? Will the gamble of trading for Kyle Wright pay off?

No one really knows the answers to those and several other major questions surrounding the Royals as they prepare for a new season, but everyone can make predictions, including forecasting which players will be better, and which worse, than they were last season.

KC Royals reliever Hunter Harvey will be better

Looking to shore up a questionable bullpen, general manager J.J. Picollo bit the baseball bullet hard last summer when he traded promising third baseman Cayden Wallace — then the club's second-best prospect per MLB Pipeline — to the Washington Nationals for Harvey.

The deal had some upside — in 95 games and 100 innings spread across the two previous seasons, Harvey had a 2.70 ERA, a 10.1 SO9 and 2.1 BB9, and saved 10 games for the Nationals.

But he was struggling with a 4.20 ERA and 2-4 record in 43 games when he arrived in KC. And if you blinked, you probably missed him pitch for the Royals — just 5.2 innings into his KC tenure, Harvey had already surrendered four runs, eight hits, and four walks, and landed on the IL with a season-ending back injury.

If fully recovered, and if his good Washington past is Kansas City prologue, Harvey can't help but be better this season.

Bobby Witt Jr. will be worse, but it won't matter

It's been only a year since the Royals gave Witt a franchise-record mega-deal that guarantees he'll spend the next several seasons in Kansas City. Witt immediately proved worthy of the club's trust and investment — and the tag "superstar" — when he led the majors with 211 hits and a .332 average, and paced the Royals with 32 homers, 109 RBI, 45 doubles, 11 triples, and a .389 OBP. His 10.4 fWAR trailed only Aaron Judge's 11.2.

So, why think Witt won't be as good in 2025? Because exceeding his 2024 numbers, which were among the best of any Royal in a single season, will be hard to do. Even for Witt, who may someday surpass George Brett as the best Royal ever, expecting such lofty numbers every year just isn't reasonable.

But don't fret — Witt won't crater. His stats may drop a bit, but it won't matter much, if at all. He'll still hit better than .310, belt around 30 homers, drive in close to 100 runs, collect a lot of extra-base hits, and steal at least 30 bases for the fourth time.

MJ Melendez will be better for the KC Royals in 2025

Will this be the season Melendez finally rewards the Royals for their deep commitment to him?

Yes. Melendez won't put up Witt-like numbers, but look for him to improve upon the disturbing .206 he hit last year and his .221/.303/.397 three-season career line.

Improvement for Melendez, a converted catcher still learning the left field ropes, may seem improbable, but the potential is there. This is, after all, the player who homered 41 times in a single minor league season (2021) and, despite his low big league batting average, is still averaging 17 homers a year in the majors.

That the Royals still have faith in him says a lot. And as MLB.com KC beat writer Anne Rogers recently reported, he devoted this offseason to making significant, and promising, adjustments to his swing.

Melendez is due. He won't be Bobby Witt Jr., but he will be better this year than in any of his previous three seasons.

Seth Lugo won't be as good in 2025

Owing much to how big league managers now use starting pitchers, pitching wins don't matter as much as they used to. Skippers don't wait as long to pull struggling starters, pitch counts factor into the equation far more than in the past, and many starters aren't capable of going, or don't like to go, deep into games.

None of that, however, means pitching wins are meaningless. Starters who win, say, 15 games are certainly good, and those who lose 15 rarely are.

So it is that Lugo had a stellar first season in Kansas City last year. He won 16 games — three more than Michael Wacha and five more than Cole Ragans. And perhaps more importantly, his 3.00 ERA bettered both Ragans' 3.14 and Wacha's 3.35.

That kind of season, the best of Lugo's nine-year major league career, will be difficult to repeat. Those 16 wins represent the only time Lugo has reached double-digits as a starter or reliever, and before 2024, he hadn't posted an ERA lower than 3.50 since 2019.

Lugo should find his way to at least a dozen wins in 2025. It may be a stretch, however, to pencil him in for 16.

Maikel Garcia will improve this season for the KC Royals

Hopes were high, and rightfully so, for Garcia after the 2023 season. In his first full big league campaign after playing only nine times the season before, Garcia slashed .272/.323/.358, drove in 50 runs, and stole 23 bases in 123 games. And although he inexplicably wasn't nominated for a Gold Glove, he led AL third basemen in two important categories.

Unfortunately, Garcia's 2024 didn't measure up to his 2023. Yes, he led the Royals with 37 steals and almost doubled his home run production (from four to seven), but he slashed only .231/.281/.332. His defense wasn't as stellar, either.

Look for Garcia to be better this season. Jonathan India is Kansas City's new leadoff man, which should relieve pressure on Garcia, upon whom manager Matt Quatraro stuck with 107 times in that spot last season despite Garcia's .234 average and .280 OBP in the role. At least one major outlet expects Garcia to bat eighth, and Garcia may be more comfortable there.

And if moving him down in the order helps, Garcia's 2025 campaign will end more like his 2023 than his 2024 season.