KC Royals: Does remaining schedule help or hurt?

The KC Royals are 8-11 with 41 games left to play in 2020. Does their remaining schedule favor a run at the postseason?

When the game ends and the lights go out at Target Field Friday night, the KC Royals will be 9-11 or 8-12. Whether they beat, or are beaten by, Minnesota, one-third of Kansas City’s season will be in the books with 40 games remaining. What might that mean for a still rebuilding club playing in an unusual season where anything can, and probably will, happen?

First and foremost, of course, is the postseason question–can these Royals, an intriguing mix of veterans, middle-of-the-roaders, and rookies, make a serious run at October baseball? In a normal campaign not shortened by a pandemic, the answer would probably be “No.” But the unique set of circumstances affecting this season make it a “Maybe.”

Schedule specifics aside for the moment, 2020’s expanded playoff system gives this club a better chance than a normal season would afford. Under the new format, six more teams (three in each league) will qualify for the postseason this year–instead of the three division winners and two Wild Card clubs making it from both leagues, this season’s playoff field will consist of those clubs and the second-place teams in each division.

Heading into tonight’s game in Minnesota, the KC Royals were 8-11 after evenly splitting their last 10 games; they were in last place in the American League Central, four games behind the first place Twins, 2.5 games behind second place Detroit, and just three games behind in the Wild Card race. The simple fact they’re only three games out of a playoff spot with 41 left to play gives the club and its fans at least mathematical hope.

The bottom line, of course, is that the Royals have to win, and win frequently, to have a realistic shot to play past the scheduled Sept. 27 end to the regular season. Can they? That, as they say, depends…

The KC Royals recently swept the AL Central-leading Twins. To contend, they’ll need that kind of effort against the rest of the division.

Fairly or unfairly, many consider the AL Central, where the Royals primarily compete, as the weakest of baseball’s six divisions. Whether that reputation is deserved or not isn’t the point here; what’s most important to Kansas City’s 2020 hopes is how the division sets up now, because the Royals face their AL Central rivals in 27 of the remaining 41 games.

Surprising isn’t too strong a word for the Central’s overall success this season. At 41-32, it stands alone as the only MLB subset having just one team with a losing record. The Royals’ are 8-11; heading into tonight’s games the Twins are 12-7, surprising Detroit is 9-7, and the White Sox and Indians are 10-9.

Kansas City has now played the entire division with a so-so 6-7 record, but is 3-0 against the front-running Twins after sweeping a weekend series against them at The K. The Royals are 2-2 against the Tigers, 1-2 against Cleveland and 0-3 against Chicago.

After the current Target Field series, which ends Monday and is the Royals’ last trip to Minnesota this season, KC plays the Twins three times at home, the Sox three times in Chicago and four in Kansas City, the Indians four times in Cleveland and three at Kauffman Stadium, and the Tigers twice at Comerica Park and four times–a season-ending series–in KC.

Fortunately, the club is done with the Twins a week from Sunday, which presumably makes the back end of the slate easier. They’ll have to continue to play well against the Twins, improve vastly against Chicago, keep pace with Cleveland and finish strong against the Tigers.

The KC Royals play 14 more games against teams from the NL Central, none of whom have winning records.

This year’s COVID-19-forced modified schedule limits teams to playing their division opponents and those from the other league’s “corresponding” division, so the only teams outside their division the Royals play are NL Central clubs.

Kansas City played a four-game, home and home series with the Cubs and went 1-3 against the team that so far has lost only three games and leads its division; fortunately, KC won’t see 13-3 Chicago again this season. The Royals split two road games against the Reds, who were without injured former Royal Mike Moustakas, and face them next week at home in the final pair the teams will play this season.

That leaves three games against Pittsburgh in Kansas City, three games in Milwaukee (KC won’t see former Royal Lorenzo Cain, who opted out of playing this season), and six possible games against St. Louis. The six contests against the Brewers and Pirates presently size up as good chances for KC Royals wins–the Brewers are 7-10 after losing to the Cubs Thursday and the Pirates, despite beating Cincinnati Thursday, own baseball’s worst record at 4-13.

The greatest uncertainty lies, of course, with the Cardinals, players of only five games after a hard COVID-19 hit. Including the postponement of Thursday’s scheduled doubleheader against the Tigers–itself a makeup of two postponements–St. Louis hasn’t played at all in August, and not since a July 29 loss to Minnesota.

News came Thursday night, however, that, despite a new positive test of a Cardinal staffer and an “at risk” player being moved to the Injured List, the Cardinals are scheduled to resume playing Saturday. Whether the staffer’s test and any further developments with the player affect that plan remain to be seen; the Royals are scheduled to play three night games in St. Louis starting Monday, and three games against the Cards at home next month. It’s hard to gauge a team’s chances against another team that hasn’t played in almost a month and only five games in all.

But the Royals can’t dislike the opportunity these NL Central teams presents–the Brewers, Cards, Pirates and Reds all have losing records and are a collective 20-35. (KC’s AL Central opponents, on the other hand, are 41-32; postponements involving Miami and St. Louis account for the disparity in games played).