Analyzing 5 Kansas City Royals due for progression or regression in 2018

Will the players who helped shape the 2017 Kansas City Royals season improve or fall off next season? That’s the question this piece will try to answer.

The Kansas City Royals missed out on their goal of making the playoffs in 2018, in part because of some lackluster play by a few key players. At the same time, they were in contention for the American League’s second Wild Card spot due to some outstanding play from others. Should we expect more of these players to progress or regress in 2018, and where will that put the Royals at the end of the season?

Every year, there are players who greatly exceed expectations, and there are others who fail to play up to their potential. This year, the Kansas City Royals roster was full of players that did both. Whit Merrifield emerged as a budding superstar. Alex Gordon was arguably the worst hitter in all of baseball. These are just two examples of players who overachieved or underachieved.

Usually, teams that have more players overachieving than they do underachieving will outperform teams that have the opposite. The Kansas City Royals finished 2017 slightly above-average, suggesting they had a fair number of players either exceed expectations or fail to live up to them.

Let’s break down five key players who either overachieved or underachieved in 2017 and decide whether to expect progression or regression in 2018.

Alex Gordon

The Kansas City Royals gave Gordon the richest contract in team history after winning the World Series in 2015. Since signing that contract, Gordon has been arguably the worst offensive player in all of baseball. He has saved face only by winning another Gold Glove award in left field this season.

Perhaps, the most ironic thing ever happened during the 2017 MLB season. During the year the MLB single-season home run record was broken, Gordon hit nine home runs. In the era of fly balls and juiced baseballs, Gordon managed to hit a career-low home run total. He also hit the home run that broke the record for most in an MLB season.

He has been abysmal at the plate ever since his groin injury in 2015. The Royals rewarded him financially for his play before and during the 2015 World Series. And they desperately need Alex Gordon to return to form if they have any chance of competing before 2020.

The good news for the Kansas City Royals is that he can’t physically get any worse. (OK, so he can but, really?) Gordon has proved that he is still capable of playing defense at an elite level. If the Royals do in fact move him to center field in 2018, as it has been rumored, his value will increase even further by playing a more premium defensive position.

Move to center field?

According to FanGraphs, Gordon’s defensive metrics in 2017 were among the best of his career in left field, and his metrics in center field weren’t too far behind. In 61 innings in center last season, Gordon registered a UZR/150 rating of 8.0. Lorenzo Cain’s season UZR/150 was 2.4, the lowest of his career. Now, this is a ridiculously small sample size that doesn’t fairly grade Gordon and Cain as center fielders. But the point is that Gordon can play center at a more than adequate level, which should increase his overall value.

Even if Gordon doesn’t make the move to center, there is no way that his bat can get any worse. I mean, there’s just no way. He had a career-low walk rate in 2017. This has more to do with pitchers’ willingness to give him fastballs than Gordon’s chase rate, which was actually lower than his career average (30.4 percent compared to 31.6 percent). Assuming his bat improves, even in the slightest, he should return to a walk rate closer to 10 percent in 2018.

His ISO was also a career worst .107, which suggests that he wasn’t driving the ball with any regularity. I wondered early in the season if his previously broken wrist was still bothering him. But you would think the Royals would’ve given him some time on the disabled list if it was that big of an issue. Assuming Gordon can drive the ball into the gaps with even some regularity in 2018, his offensive production should return to “bad” instead of “worst in all of baseball.”

Verdict: PROGRESSION

Kelvin Herrera

There’s at least a decent chance that Kelvin Herrera isn’t even on the Kansas City Royals roster in 2018. Under the assumption he doesn’t get traded, we’re going to evaluate him, because he’s a key cog on this team.

Herrera had what I would consider to be his worst big-league season in 2017. His BB/9 rate returned to the 3’s where it had been for most of his career. Herrera’s BB/9 rate in 2016 was in the 1’s, which probably had something to do with his success. His HR/FB (HR/Fly Ball) rate was the highest it had been in any season since 2013.

I can’t help but wonder how much of Herrera’s decline in 2017 was due to fatigue. Yes, they made him the closer, but Herrera didn’t find much success regardless of his role. Herrera had logged 211 2/3 innings pitched over the previous three seasons, which is a lot for a reliever who makes his living on throwing the baseball hard. That number doesn’t include his 28 2/3 innings pitched in the playoffs in 2014 and 2015.

Herrera is a max-effort guy, and it can be reasonably believed that fatigue had begun to set in this season. Having not made the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, combined with his lowest innings total since 2013, should allow Herrera to rest up a bit this offseason.

How much better will Herrera be?

For that reason, I can’t expect Kelvin Herrera to be as bad in 2018 as he was in 2017. Do I expect him to be as dominant as he was in 2014? No. I don’t even expect him to be as good as he was in 2016. But I do expect him to be better than 2017, for sure.

Herrera had a couple of recurring forearm issues that hampered him throughout 2017, but his velocity didn’t change (97.8 MPH average in 2016 and 2017). And he was actually throwing his off-speed pitches harder than in years past. (Both his changeup and slider velocity were nearly career-highs.) He induced more ground balls than in any season since 2014. He also induced fewer line-drives than in any season since 2012.

In my opinion, the amount of rest Herrera will get this offseason, combined with the motivation he’ll have heading into a contract year, sets things up nicely for his 2018. Herrera will be 28 years old next season, and I expect he’ll pitch his way into a nice payday next winter.

Verdict: PROGRESSION

Scott Alexander

In 2017, Scott Alexander was arguably the Royals’ best reliever. Mike Minor makes a compelling case, but that’s not the point. Alexander was phenomenal for Kansas City this past season. His 2.48 ERA is his best ERA in any full season in his professional career, and it came in his first full big-league season. He produced a massive 73.8 percent ground ball rate and gave up merely three home runs in 69 innings pitched.

Alexander was phenomenal in his first full season with the Kansas City Royals. I have no doubt that he has the ability to be an effective big-league reliever. I’d even go as far to say I think he can achieve some longevity in KC’s bullpen as a high-leverage reliever who Ned Yost can bring in for any situation at any point during the game.

I also have my doubts about Alexander’s sheer dominance in 2017. Again, I believe Scott Alexander can be a good reliever in MLB. I don’t think he can be as consistently dominant going forward. He is already 28 years old, and his best years may very well be behind him.

This is not an indictment on Alexander. I expect him to be a key member of the Royals bullpen in 2018. And if the Kansas City Royals have any hope of competing, they are going to need him to be very good.

The best chance that Alexander has to duplicate his 2017 season is to work on his slider in order to become more effective against lefties. If he can do that, then he may actually have a chance to be better in 2018 than he was in 2017. But until he shows me he can do that, I will reserve my doubts about Alexander’s 2017 campaign.

Verdict: REGRESSION

Whit Merrifield

Merrifield was the 60th most valuable position player in all of baseball in 2017, according to FanGraphs. This is remarkable for a player whose career-high for home runs in a minor league season was nine back in 2012 and who was playing in merely his second MLB season at the age of 28.

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The second baseman became a phenomenal story in 2017. He seemingly saved the season by producing in the leadoff spot and brought much-needed stability to the Kansas City Royals lineup. Merrifield led the American League in stolen bases and found a way to hit 19 home runs. He plays a marvelous second base and fills in nicely in left field when needed.

Merrifield benefitted from the juiced balls in 2017 (quit denying it). I worry about his ability to duplicate his numbers in the future. Merrifield is a player who relies on his speed to a certain extent. And, entering his age 29 season, he’s not going to get any faster.

He does have a couple of things going for him, though. MLB had some success with fans in 2017, and I doubt they’ll stop juicing the balls anytime soon. He also wasn’t propped up by any ridiculous peripheral stats in 2017 (like his .361 BABIP in 2016). Most of the time, one would think that this would project well for a budding player.

One problem is that Merrifield didn’t handle pitches on the outer half of the plate well last season, and this could be a recurring issue if pitchers start refusing to give him fastballs inside. He’s also going to be 29 at the beginning of the season, which means, much like Alexander, the best years of his career may be behind him. His average home run distance was feet shorter than the major league average, and his average launch angle was nearly five degrees higher than the MLB average.

I don’t think anyone should expect Merrifield to produce better numbers than he put up in 2017. That being said, I do think he’s capable of putting up 2-2.5 WAR (compared to 3.1 WAR in 2017).

Verdict: REGRESSION

Next: Early look at 2018 starting rotation

What do you think? Who is due to trend upward in 2018, and who is due to come back down? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.