Kansas City Royals: Matt Strahm, Starter Or Reliever?

Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) throws in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during a spring training game at Maryvale Baseball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) throws in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during a spring training game at Maryvale Baseball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
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Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) throws in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during a spring training game at Maryvale Baseball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) throws in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during a spring training game at Maryvale Baseball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /

Kansas City Royals rookie Matt Strahm burst on the scene last season, dominating as a reliever in the last two months of 2016. What can Royals fans look forward to this season, and beyond?

After the KC Royals picked him in the 21st round out of Neosho County Community College in 2012, Matt Strahm has steadily put himself on the prospect radar. In the past couple of years, Strahm has added weight to his frame, velocity to his pitches, and has tweaked his delivery. Strahm found himself in AA to start out 2016, performing pretty admirably. Then because of an innings limit, Strahm was moved to the bullpen to July, preparing for a September call-up. But that call a bit earlier. A Wade Davis DL stint in late July sent Strahm to Kansas City to get his first taste of the bigs at age 24. And all he did was impress.

Since being developed by the Kansas City Royals, Strahm has always had a pretty good arsenal of pitches. A low to mid-90 fastball, great mid to upper-70 curveball, decent changeup, all three pitches with good movement. This led him to excel along the way in developing in the minors. Now he got to work with Dave Eiland. In his time with the Royals last year, Strahm was reaching upper 90s with his fastball and using his curveball a lot more.

He didn’t throw his changeup and slider much last year. How he attacked major league hitters was going up with a great elevating, hard fastball, and then going down with one the lowest elevating curveballs in the majors last year. This led to dominant work out of the bullpen. Strahm was pitching at an historic rate for a first-year pitcher.

  • Among 3,035 rookie pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched since 1980, Strahm had the 10th best FIP and 4th best ERA
  • Among those pitchers, only 2.5% allowed 0 home runs. Strahm allowed 0 home runs last year.
  • Out of 1,169 pitchers with at least 20 innings since 2010, Strahm has the 8th best fastball, curveball value, according to Fangraphs. Higher than star relievers such as Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.
  • Among those 1,169 pitchers, Strahm has the 16th best K/9.
Sep 10, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) delivers a pitch during the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 10, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (64) delivers a pitch during the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

How Strahm Put Up Those Numbers

What Strahm did to achieve this success was pretty impressive too. This year Strahm was in the top 10% among pitchers with at least 20 batted balls in lowest opponent exit velocity. He was also in the fifth of the majors in average distance on BIP, according to Baseball Savant.

And in Strahm’s limited time, he wasn’t pitching mop up innings. After being called up, he quickly settled into a setup man like role, even after the return of Wade Davis. Among 512 pitchers this year with at least 20 innings, Strahm had the 9th best FIP at 2.06. This could come into play this with Strahm being a possible setup man this year.

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This leads me into my next discussion. What will Strahm’s role be going into the future? I think he can be a starter, based of his pitches. I think he would be mid-rotation starter type if he didn’t develop his third pitch (slider), but if he did, his ceiling could be frontline starter type. Something I did find very interesting was of his most effective games with his slider, was his longest outing of the year. He pitched 2.2 innings against a dangerous Boston Red Sox lineup, allowing no hits, one walk, striking out one.

When his slider was working, it was hard to get good contact off. Strahm generated a fair amount of grounders and pop ups in that game. I went to go look why his slider was working so well. According to Brooks Baseball, he generated more spin, a couple more inches in vertical movement, and had a higher release speed with his sider.  It’s a very small sample size, but that pitch is the key to him starting.

Aug 31, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Matt Strahm (64) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the thirteenth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 31, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Matt Strahm (64) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the thirteenth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

As for Strahm in the bullpen, I view him as an Andrew Miller lite. Tall, lanky, lefty. Miller was also a former starter that unleashed some velocity in the pen. As relievers, both Strahm and Miller sit in the mid-90s. The only difference is there second pitchers. Miller relies on a slider, Strahm on a curve. Anyway, I like the role Strahm can play. You can bring him in for one batter, have him setup, or pitch him in long relief. I love the versatility he could provide as a reliever.

Projections

Steamer Projections for Matt Strahm: 3-3, 55 IP, 18 BB, 55 SO, 3.36 ERA, 0.3 WAR

As for projections, Steamer sees Strahm going towards more of a relief role. PECOTA thinks the exact opposite. They project Strahm to split time between the bullpen and rotation this year and then step into a full time starter role by 2018. They give him comps of Scott Elbert, Jae Kull Ryu, and Antonio Bastardo.

Outlook

I think Strahm will be heading for the bullpen to start year. He will probably start out filling different roles, such as long relief, fireman, etc. Then I think later in the year, he will go into a full setup role. I expect him to perform well, so I think his future remains in the Kansas City Royals bullpen. My biggest concern with him starting is tall, lanky frame that could be susceptible to injury. I’d feel better about that with him not trying to good 180 innings every year.

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Either way, as long as he is healthy, I think Strahm sets up nicely for a good career in the future.

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