KC Royals Will Not Collapse Like the 1964 Phillies

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Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Friday , the KC Royals lost to Detroit. Salvador Perez‘ late minute heroics got the Royals to extra innings, but Greg Holland imploded to take the loss. Still, with a recent rough patch for the Royals (and Cueto up and down), some of the fans are getting nervous about whether the Royals can win their division or not. Presently, the Royals have gone 7-12 this month.

The huge (good news) from Friday is that Cueto was not only pretty good, but even more importantly, he was getting more comfortable with Perez. According to Andy McCullough of the Star, Sal also agreed to something Cueto requested: change his positing behind home plate and lower his glove to set for Cueto a better target. If the two get in sync, which is usually required, we may see the old Johnny.

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Ned Yost said, “There’s some things that we’ve done to adjust to help Johnny. I think in terms of Salvy with a lower target, he’s just a big guy. The thing with Johnny is he has a real knack for throwing straight to the target. And fully understanding where he wants his targets.” He also said, “They finally got together this week on the side session. Salvy went down and caught his side sessions and Johnny showed him exactly where he wanted him to set up and how he wanted him to set up. It was good. They both came away from it feeling really, really good.”

“There are some dynamics there,” Yost said. “Getting to know the league, getting to work with a new catcher that at times can be a little difficult until they both get on the exact same wave length.”

Their remaining season looks like this: one left @ Detroit (69-78), their last day off, three home games with the Mariners (72-77), three home games with Cleveland (73-74). They finish with seven on the road with a makeup game at Wrigley (Cubs 87 and 61), then they cross the city for three at White Sox (70-77). The Royals then close with three at Minnesota (75- 73). Four games are with teams with a winning record, and ten with teams with losing records–14 total.

The Twins have one with the Angels Sunday. In their game on Thursday, the Twins blew a first inning five run lead, giving up six runs in the second, eventually using six pitchers in the 11-8 loss. After the rain out On Saturday, the Twins lost a crucial double header: 4 to 3 in 12 and 5 to 2. With the Twins one game out in the wild card and the Halos two out in the wild card, the next three games should be highly competitive. The Twins are battling the Angels

After that they have three with Cleveland, three at Detroit, are at Cleveland for four games, and finally three at home vs. the Royals.

Is the great year going to end in tragedy with the KC Royals not winning the Central? Well, right now, the Royals are 11 games up on the Minnesota Twins. With the final series in Minnesota, the question is whether the Royals will be on top of the division at the end of the regular season?

Is it even a possibility? Will it be glory or will it be a melt-down like the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies? Do the Royals have the same flaws as the Phils?

Next: A trip back in time

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

We will get to comparisons with the KC Royals after a brief trip through history that rocked the baseball world in 1964. Even if you don’t like the Cards, Phils, or Reds, this is just strange stuff. In 1964, my dad moved me (I was a Cardinal fan then; yes, I have confessed it) to Kansas City. After the Cards’s Series victory, longing to fit in, I wilted under pressure of high school friends and left the Cards for to root for KC teams.

Let’s review the Philadelphia year in 1964–later known as the Philadelphia “Phold.” It was so bad that several (sad) books were written about the poor Phillies. With 39 games left, the Phils were 11 games up on the Cards. With 12 games left, the margin was 6 1/2 games. The Phils had the finish line within easy reach. Or so they thought. Then Frank Thomas (different player that the White Sox Frank Thomas) on Sep. 8th, the first baseman, suffered a thumb injury and he was gone.

Dallas Green, then a relief pitcher for the Phils and a later manager, said, “I think everybody in Philadelphia thought we were going to win the pennant.” But near the end of the season the Phils went on a 10 game losing streak with all sort of unusual games and finishes that seem to foretell their doom. A bizarre game was the catalyst.

A play that would forever haunt the Phils team occurred on September 21st. Against the Reds, the light hitting Chico Ruiz singled with one out in the sixth. Vada Pinson advanced Ruiz to third but Pinson was thrown out at second, trying to make it into a double (two out). Then Ruiz on third committed the (apparent) base-running blunder. He bolted for home with no apparent reason. Frank Robinson, a Hall of Fame hitter, was batting. Everyone on both sides looked on in disbelief.

You can see most of the steal and other stuff on the Phil’s collapse in “The Fall of the Phillies 1964” video.

The most surprised person on the field was the Phils’ relief pitcher Art Mahaffey. Mahaffey threw the pitch beyond the reach of Phil’s catcher Clay Dalrymple. Then Ruiz mad dash home completely melted the Phils” will to compete. The Reds won 1-0. Dallas Green later said that the play “shook us to the core.” They were unable to right themselves after the play, according to Green. The steal that looked like it was extremely stupid for the Reds, was a back braker for the Phils. The steal of home was rated among the ten best steals ever in Sports Illustrated.

Two days later Pinson would hit two homers and Ruiz would only get his second home run of the year. The hated Ruiz had gotten to the Phils again. Phillies’ fans called it “the Curse of Chico Ruiz.” Ruiz gained a nickname that can’t be printed here. Guess.

On Sept. 26, relief pitcher Bobby Shantz blew a one run lead in the bottom of the 9th. An error by the Phils helped the Braves to a victory.

All of this unnerved not only the players, but the Phils’ manager Gene Mauch. Their main relief pitcher, Jack Baldschun, upset his manager with a loss. Dallas Green said that Mauch turned to relief pitchers without the ability or experience to close out games. As a result, a lot of late inning losses further unnerved the Phils and their manager. With about a week left, it became a three team race: the Phils, Cards, and Reds.

Another mistake that Gene Mauch made was to pitch Hall of Famer Jim Bunning on short rest. He started an amazing four times in nine games. He did the same with Chris Short. They both would start every other day. It was a disaster. Bunning’s ERA excluding the then day stretch was 2.25. During those 10 games, his ERA shot to 10.95. For Short, the ten day stretch lead to a 5.71 ERA; during the rest of the season, he had a 1.99 ERA. Part of that ten day stretch was a sweep of a three game series by the Cards over the Phils.

It came down to the final day. St. Louis was playing the (disastrous) Mets and the Phillies were playing the Reds. The Reds and Cards were one game up tied over the Phils. The Phils came back to life beating the Reds 10 to nothing. That left it up to the Cards who could clinch with a win. Gaylon Cisco, who would play with the Royals in the future, started for the Mets in place of Tracy Stollard who had just broken wrist in a bar fight. The Cards were trailing 3 to 2 in the top of the fifth.

The Cards then scored three in the fifth and three in the six to take a commanding lead. Bob Gibson was used in short relief effectively. The Cards won the game 11 to 5 and the pennant as Harry Caray screamed famously, “The Cardinals win the pennant, the Cardinals win the pennant.” The Cards would get the World Series ring over the Yankees.

But what is remembered for that year was almost more the collapse of the Phils as the rise of the Cards. Green who would later manage the Phils in the World Series against the George Brett (and his sore …) and the Royals with the Phils winning.

Several players in these sets of games became Royals. Gaylon Cisco, pitcher for the Mets, would move to the expansion 1969 Royals, and Cookie Rojas of the Phils later became the second baseman for the Royals in the Seventies until Frank White.

Next: Will history repeat itself again?

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Another historic collapse was of the 1969 Cubs. On the Sept 2, the Cubs were 84 and 52. The Mets were 77 and 55. Then as Shea Stadium, a black cat walked on the field behind a young Ron Santo. Santo got into a tiff with another player, and the Cubs finished 8 games behind the Mets. But, hey, they are the Cubs.

So are the Royals going to do a nose dive like the Phils? The Royals’ fans are happy about last night, but will they freak out if Cueto loses his next game? Are the Royals like that 1964 Phillies team?

The answer appears to be a resounding no. Obviously you cannot guarantee anything. But right now, the Royals are 86 and 61 with a 10 game lead over the Twins.

1. So right now there are the Twins, but unlike 1964 there is no other third team that the Royals have to worry about to win the Central (the Phils had to worry about the Cards and the Reds) . (Of course, they do have to worry about Toronto and other teams in the playoffs. Are Royals in yet? No. Could they collapse? Theoretically, it is possible.

So far this this month with 7 wins and 12 losses (.388). Suppose the Royals finish their September as they have started it. You get 5.15 wins. Let’s round down to 5 meaning the Royal finish and 91 and 71.

If the Royals finished with 5 wins and 9 losses, they would end with 91 wins and 71 losses. The Twins currently are at 75 and 73. If the Twins won every game, they would be at 89 and 73. Are the Twins hot this month/ No! They are 8 and 10 for the month as of Saturday late.

The Twins get some good news. Glen Perkins is expected back perhaps as early as today. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune obviously is focusing on the pennant race. But their web sports page is highlighting one thing: not the division crown but the wild card race.

What is the Twins manager Paul Molitor (in Star Tribune) said after a bad loss Friday: “This is what you want them to feel. Hopefully they win more than they lose going forward, but I think the feeling of loss in games of significance is how you grow. It’s a bad taste.” Molitor mentioned another big factor after two losses ”It would be nice to salvage one [tomorrow] from an Angels team that is playing very well,” Molitor said. “I think their experience has shown up here these last three games, and maybe our lack of it has shown up as well.

The Twins beat writer for the paper, Paul Souhan said in an article Friday: “Wednesday night’s loss was the worst kind. The Twins blew a ninth-inning lead, blew a chance to gain ground in the wild-card race and blew out their bullpen in a loss.”

Note that the Twins have their sites on the wildcard spot.

Next: The chances greatly favor the Royals

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

2. Even after the troubling loss last night, the gurus (and computers) at Baseball Prospectus say that the Royals have a 100% chance of winning the Division.

Well, what about something less geekish that is more “meat and potatoes” reasons? Well some of these are somewhat subjective but some are less so.

3. The Phils were overconfident and played that way (until they were unnerved by someone stealing home). I would say the Royals are confident about their chances about winning the AL Central but when they look over their shoulder, they see the Jays trying to overtake them for the home field, if it comes to that. They do not appear to be over-confident. With a 3 1/2 game lead over the Yankees, Toronto has am 86.7 % probability of winning the East.

4. In the last two weeks (and partly this is fault of their manager Gene Mauch), many of the Phils after the Ruiz incident and other later inning flame-outs had no confidence at all. The Royals current are exhibiting none of this behaviour

5. Minnesota is in a funk right now. They have lost five in a row. They had a 5 to 0 lead Friday against the Halos and blew it 11 to 8 and a double header loss Saturday.

6. The chance of weird plays like that of Chico Ruiz and strange losses are possible but not likely for the Royals.

Next: Ned Yost is not Gene Mauch - thankfully

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

7. Gene Mauch made a bunch of crucial errors. He started two of his pitchers every other game. Slowly they burned themselves out. Is Yost likely to do this? No. Ned has demonstrated time and again that he is worried about players being tired and giving them the needed time off.

8. At the end of the season, Dallas Green said that Mauch completely changed his managerial theory. He didn’t give them “direction” and did not use “what worked all season.” During the end of the season, Mauch stopped being a shouter, an encourager, and, according to Green, a “recluse. He didn’t say much…He just let us play…”

Is Ned likely to change his managerial style? Not likely. Ned has never been a “rah rah” guy. But he will speak out. He does give encouragement. And he will sit players if they go into a funk. In short the manager and the type of players that the Royals have does not lend itself to late season collapses. Yost is not Gene Mauch.

Yost seems to have learned from his mistakes in Milwaukee, where he was fired with 12 games to go. The interim manager (Dale Sveum) got Yost’s team to the playoffs. He said that he realizes now that he can’t control everything and he relies on his coaches more. Were lessons learned? It certainly appears that way.

Next: Those things that may not appear in a box score

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

9. All the reports are that generally the Royals like each other and their manager. Team morale, which we saw go over the roof. The players keep each other lose. They talk and encourage each other. When one player makes a great play, he isn’t congratulated just when he comes off the field, his teammates tip their caps (often the pitcher will do the same) right after the play.

10. While pitching and hitting are not always there, it is much easier to maintain a great defense. The Royals’ defenders can and do regularly take runs away from the other teams. When you play great defense and keep runs from scoring, that motivates a player who have a problem momentarily in hitting. You can boost the team’s morale by constantly making one “WebGem” after another.

11. If the Royals do collapse, you can blame me. I can handle it. I’ve handled a bunch of lousy Royal teams (with some notable exceptions) since 1969. No, this is not your father’s Royals 2005 team that lost 102 game and nearly drove Ryan Lefybre over the brink. If it does happen, I will be somewhere north of Pluto with Hud.

12. The Royals’ fans are a prime motivator. Not just in the stadium, but elsewhere in the area, they are a “riot about to happen.” Besides, no one wants to go what Phillies fans went through after that collapse.

But we have had so many down years that I think our fans are more resilient. Winning the Series is difficult. Given the hoops that you have to jump through, determining who will win the Series is difficult.. Most of us realize that winning the playoffs involves not only talent and motivation but getting hot at the right time–something that isn’t easy to turn on or off. What the Royals’ players and management have really been good at is staying away from the Dark Side. There is no need to go there. If Infante can light up the boards like he did Thursday night, there is indeed hope.

12 & 1/2. (not going to next integer) If nothing else convinces you, maybe this will. Hud won’t let it happen. Anyone, who identifies the moon as a planet is not going to be let it happen. The Central Division is a piece of cheese that is in front of a hungry “rat.” (Thanks to the editor DH and to friends who assisted: John and Steve.)

Next: Can Sung Woo Lee Inspire Another Winning Streak?

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