KC Royals: James Shields Trade Carried High Cost

Oct 20, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

(33) talks with members of the media during a press conference the day before the start of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The KC Royals clearly benefited by acquiring James Shields and Wade Davis in a mega-deal with the Tampa Bay Rays before the 2013 season. While controversial at the time, there’s no doubting that the Royals would do the same deal over again in a heartbeat.

However, most Kansas City Royals fans underestimate the cost.

I must confess, I only thought of this issue when I read my co-editor David Hill’s comment that former KC Royals prospect Mike Montgomery didn’t pan out, in Dave’s story about the Royals most recent farm system ranking. Just the night before, I had discovered that the Mariners have called up the 25-year-old Montgomery. He’s given Seattle two strong starts with an ERA of 2.08.

That’s not to second-guess Dave’s offhand comment. Dave’s story wasn’t about Mike Montgomery. And Montgomery is a long way from establishing himself as a viable major-league starter. But, it stuck in my mind because I had the same impression about Mike Montgomery that Dave did until I saw the news item about Montgomery’s early success in Seattle.

I had thought that Montgomery was still caught in the mysterious funk that had derailed his climb through the KC system.

The fact is, KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore surrendered significant talent to land Shields and Davis. Given both the team’s recent success, and the out-of-sight, out-of-mind mentalities of most people, I think the majority of Kansas City fans underestimate what the team gave up.

Put it this way, while going to the World Series and re-energizing Kansas City fans has certainly been worth the price, the Shields/Myers swap isn’t going to join the list of unbalanced trades in baseball lore.

Let’s do a quick check in on the players the Royals gave up with a slide show:

Next: Wil Myers Can Still Hit

May 10, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres batter

bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

OF WIL MYERS

Just 22-years old at the time of the trade, Wil Myers was the centerpiece of the deal from the Tampa Bay Rays point of view.

He quickly justified their faith in him. Wil Myers won the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Award for his .293/.354/.478 debut season with 13 home runs and 53 RBI’s in 373 plate appearances.

But, Myers wallowed in 2014 after breaking his right wrist. Wil Myers slash line crashed to .222/.294/.320, and the Rays ended up dealing him to the Padres in a second mega-trade.

Myers felt like the Rays gave up on him.

While the Padres miscast Myers as a centerfielder, his bat speed has returned to slash .291/.340/.493. Myers once again looks like he will be a productive major-league hitter for many years to come at age 24.

Now, the Padres just need to find a place to play him in the field. Myers has played some games at first base for San Diego, but with Yonder Alonso‘s return, that adjustment looks short-lived.

No matter his recent struggles in the field, Wil Myers bat will play somewhere. Myers can flat out hit.

Given Kansas City Royals RF Alex Rios‘ recent problems coming back from HIS broken left hand, Wil Myers would look mighty good in the KC  lineup.

Just imagine having Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers, Lorenzo Cain, and Salvador Perez as your offensive core for the next few seasons. Now that would be a young lineup.

Feeling a touch of regret yet? It’ll get worse.

Next: Jake Ordrizzi Is Becoming A Top Of The Rotation Starter

May 31, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher

(23) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

RHP JAKE ODORIZZI

The now 25-year-old Jake Odorizzi came to the Kansas City Royals in the Zack Greinke trade, along with Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, and reliever Jeremy Jeffress (who had a nice season for Milwaukee last year).

By the winter of 2013, Odorizzi had already earned a call-up to Kansas City, but had not established himself in the rotation after only a 7.1 inning stint in 2012.

Jake Odorizzi earned a brief trial in Tampa in 2013, but blossomed in 2014. Odorizzi started 31 games for the Rays, finishing 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA in 168.0 innings pitched. After the season, Odorizzi finished 8th in rookie of the year voting.

Betsided

The big surprise came in his ability to miss bats. After posting mediocre K/9 rates of 4.9 and 6.7 in his first two major-league trials, Odorizzi’s K/9 zoomed to 9.3 in 2014.

He’s been even better in the early going of 2015.

Jake Odorizzi sports a 4-5 record, with an outstanding 2.47 ERA in 76.1 innings pitched. While his K/9 has dropped to 7.4, Odorizzi’s walk rate (BB/9) is now a minuscule 1.8, down from 3.2 in 2014.

Many analysts believed Odorizzi to have a mid-rotation starter upside when the KC Royals acquired him from the Brewers in the Greinke deal. Today, Odorizzi looks like he could exceed those expectations by becoming a solid number two (or better) pitcher.

Given the inconsistency of KC Royals starters through the first third of the 2015 season, Jake Odorizzi would be a welcome addition to the staff.

But, Odorizzi wasn’t the only starting pitcher that the Royals gave up for James Shields and Wade Davis:

Next: Mike Montgomery Looks Like He's Back

Jun 7, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Mike Montgomery (37) throws the ball against the Tampa Bay Rays during the fourth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

LHP MIKE MONTGOMERY

Mike Montgomery had been one of the most celebrated prospects in baseball from 2010 through 2012. Baseball America rated him the #39 prospect in MLB before 2010, #19 before 2011, and #23 before 2012.

Montgomery, however, hit a wall in 2011 when he was promoted to AAA Omaha. He posted a miserable 5.32 ERA. He followed up that season by getting demoted to AA Northwest Arkansas and pitching for AAA Omaha, resulting in an even worse 6.07 ERA.

Montgomery suddenly couldn’t find the plate in the upper minors for some inexplicable reason. He didn’t have an arm injury, but his pitches just didn’t have the same bite. He was hittable. And no one really knew why.

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Montgomery had fallen out of the top prospect rankings when Tampa Bay dealt for him in 2013. At the time, the Rays hoped a change of scenery would help bring Mike Montgomery out of his funk.

However, he continued to wallow for two more years in the Tampa system before they dealt him to Seattle for starter Erasmo Ramirez last winter.

Mike Montgomery, at long last, found his elusive command in AAA Tacoma. He put up a respectable 3.74 ERA in nine starts, with a BB/9 of 2.5. Montgomery has been even better in two starts for the Mariners, giving up three earned runs in 13.0 innings pitched.

While Montgomery’s strikeout rate has tanked to 4.9 through his introduction to the majors, he’s continued to throw strikes with a 2.1 BB/9.

While it’s a bit too early to claim that Mike Montgomery has completed his return from the wilderness, how would you like to have him back in Kansas City? He’d form an impressive young collection of rotation talent along with Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, and Jake Odorizzi.

Next: Don't Forget About Patrick Leonard

Apr 6, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager

(3) receives his American League championship ring from general manager Dayton Moore before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

1B/3B PATRICK LEONARD

Patrick Leonard was something of a throw-in on the deal with Tampa Bay. Before the 2013 season, Leonard was 20-years-old and had just completed his first season in rookie ball after the Royals picked him in the 5th round of the 2011 draft.

While Leonard slashed a promising .251/.340/.494 with 14 home runs in the Appalacian League, he was a long way from a finished product.

Leonard struggled a bit in the Tampa system, but enjoyed a solid 2014 at High A Charlotte. Patrick Leonard hit .284/.359/.448 with 13 home runs in 455 at bats in his age-21 season, and earned a promotion to AA Montgomery in the Southern League.

While Leonard has yet to make any MLB top-100 prospect lists, John Sickels of SB Nation rated him a “C+” prospect and included him in the “honorable mentions” of his Rays top-20 prospect list.

Patrick Leonard might yet have a major-league future.

So Kansas City fans, the package the Royals gave up for James Shields and Wade Davis was hardly negligible. The KC Royals would today have three more mid-20’s starters for their major-league club.

The rotation would look considerably improved, with four young guns in Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Jake Odorizzi, and Mike Montgomery. The lineup would have another middle-of-the-order bat with four-and-a-half more years of team control in Wil Myers. Patrick Leonard would add to the Royals minor-league prospect depth.

With all of that young talent, I imagine that today’s KC Royals would still be a good team in 2015. What I doubt is if they would have the same “swagger” that came from two-years of clubhouse leadership by James Shields, and a World Series run.

That self-belief will make the KC Royals dangerous if they make the playoffs.

Do you really believe a Royals team without veteran leader James Shields would have had the confidence to pull off that Wild Card comeback against Oakland’s Jon Lester?

I don’t. And, without that game as a springboard for the 2014 World Series run, I also doubt Kansas City fans would have embraced this team like they do today.

Next: Kansas City Royals 2015 MLB Draft Review

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