But let us pause and remember those Royals who left the organization over the winter with a little “Where are they now?” examination.

The Trade

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

One of the biggest moves of the MLB offseason was the Royals trade of Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and (eventually) Elliot Johnson. It’s natural to look wistfully at Durham to see how the Royals prospects are faring.

Wil Myers

I’m sure there’s a little part of every Royals fan who was hoping that Myers would flop outside of the Royals organization. Just a little. So far, however, that’s not the case. The Rays are playing service time games and stashing him in Triple A, where Myers is, understandably, raking.

He’ll probably make it to the big leagues in June.

Of course he wasn’t the only part of the trade. The Royals also sent Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery (as well as Patrick Leonard) to Tampa.

Mike Montgomery

Montgomery gave up four runs in three innings during spring training and, so far, hasn’t been able to tap back into the talent that made him a top pitching prospect as recently as 2011. He was placed on the seven day disabled list on April 21 after making just one start for Durham.

Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi is still able to strike batters out, but he’s still averaging less than six innings a start due to more pitch count questions. He’s striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings so far, which bodes well for some success. If he becomes a bit more efficient he’ll be leaning more towards the #2/#3 starter ceiling rather than his #4 safe zone.

Patrick Leonard

Things haven’t gone as well for Leonard since the trade. He showed good power and on base ability with the Burlington Royals in the Appalachian League last year, but in Low A Bowling Green, he’s striking out a quarter of the time but with no power to show for it. He’s still just 20 years old and there’s time to grow, so if I’m a Tampa fan, I’m not worried, but from a Royals fan perspective, I’m not sweating losing his bat.

The main components to this are projecting the WAR values from each player for the contracts/player control time that was traded.  Then coming up with a discount rate, that would approximate the win inflation over the time period, to make sure wins this year are worth more than subsequent years.  The rest of it is just simple math.  As you can see I am not including Elliot Johnson, Mike Montgomery, or Patrick Leonardas I believe there value to the teams is either zero or close enough to zero that I can ignore

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

them.  I put James Shields down for two seasons similar to last year at 4 WAR each, and then zero from then on out since his contract will end.  Then I projected Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and played with what Wade Davis would have to do to make the trade somewhat even.  You can quibble a lot with these projections, but whatever they are, Davis is going to have to be pretty good to make this trade valuable for the Royals.  TWins are a sum of all WAR for the year for that side of the trade (Shields + Davis or Myers + Odorizzi), and DWins use the discount rate to present value the wins in terms of now.  As I go on I will be discussing how to make a model like this better since this one is pretty simple.

First, the projections need to be better.  I am pretty comfortable with Shields, but the others are much harder to project.  My preference would be to crowd source these win values to get expectations from multiple fan bases both biased and unbiased, but that would require me having a significant amount more power in the blogosphere.  In lieu of that I will probably need to go look at scouting expectations and then use aging curves for the three players who are younger and going to be around for a while.  Once you have those it is just a matter of setting a discount rate.  A win this year is more valuable than a win next year, and though you could argue for specific times and specific teams this could change a lot, I think this is still a good assumption.  How to set the actual discount rate could go several ways though.

You could try and set a league wide discount rate using win inflation, meaning look at what team payrolls are per WAR year over year recently, and then project an inflation rate from there.  This could be a good way to set the rate, but it is not what I was thinking.  You could also do this on a team by team basis since the Tampa Bay way won’t allow it to grow payroll at the same rate as the Dodgers or Yankees.  Personally, I would prefer to set inflation rates separately for the players.  The model above assumes one discount rate, consistent with a league-wide win inflation rate, but I think each player’s risk profile might give better results.  That way we could use what we know about the players to set the rate.  Prospects are riskier, so their discount rate should be higher than established big leaguers (we are more confident in what James Shields will be than the other three so his discount rate should be lower).  Also, pitchers should probably have a higher discount rate than position players due to higher injury risk and year to year variation.  Once you have done all this, a good estimate of each trading team’s expected present value of wins should be formulated, and then you move on to money.

One team or the other (or for multi-team trades you could compare more) is going to have an edge in WAR expectancy, but that is not the only factor.  Payroll should be used as well.  In the case of this trade the Royals have a lower win expectancy and took on more payroll with Shields’ contract, which is why most stat heads gave the clear victory to the Rays on the trade.  Anyway, that is an introduction to the method I would like to develop.  If you like it or have any questions or modifications I should consider let me know.

February 21, 2013; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays outfleder WIl Myers (60) poses for a picture during photo day at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Remember Wil Myers? Of course you do. For some of you, it’s still an open wound. You’re still heartbroken. He’s like that old girlfriend/boyfriend you always wonder about (is he the one that got away?). And with all the spring training battles coming to an end, it’s easy to let your mind wander and wonder again.

KC fans loved him. Some still aren’t sold on “the trade.” And…I guess with good reason, to a degree. He was the best Royals prospect. He’s still highly rated by Baseball America and just about every other prospect ranking website/magazine guru out there. If you Google Wil Myers, you’ll see links that contain phrases like “No. 1 fantasy prospect” or “Wil Myers tops fantasy baseball 2013 rookies.” You’ll see (off to the right of your screen) a heading that says “People also search for,” which is followed by the names Jake Odorizzi, James Shields, Wade Davis, and Mike Montgomery.

So yes…Myers is still a name that KC fans think about and the Royals are still somewhat connected to their former future star. But should we care? Isn’t it time to move on? This isn’t a movie…we aren’t Martin Blank, going back to our ten-year high school reunion to rekindle something with Debi Newberry (Grosse Point Blank reference if you are too lame to get it). Wil Myers is gone for good. There is no future. No reunion. No rekindling.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Lucky for Royals fans, though, we did get something nice in return to help us move on. Shields is the ace of a revamped pitching rotation, while Davis gets his shot at starting again now that he’s out of Tampa. Both are key figures in the Royals attempt to compete in 2013. Both are important to KC’s hopeful return to relevance.

We can argue and ask “what if” all day long. What if Myers was in right field instead of Jeff Francoeur? What if Myers becomes a perennial All-Star? What would our lineup be like with Myers hitting .290 with 30 home runs? Well…what if? What if he did in fact do all that for the Royals, but the rotation still featured underwhelming pitchers like Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and (insert name of just about any pitcher from the last decade not named Zack Greinke here). What if we had kept Myers and kept this franchise on the same course? That’s the scenario that bothers me. Not “What if Myers is a stud?” but “What if this team never went for it?”

It’s time to move on. Let’s not worry about Wil anymore. That ship has sailed. Let’s concentrate on the guys we still have, and the guys we’ve brought on board this offseason. There is a lot to like about the current roster. If you believe in WAR (and I do), Fangraphs had Alex Gordon as the sixth most valuable position player in the American League last season. Billy Butler was an All-Star (a REAL All-Star) and won the Silver Slugger. Of course there is a lot to like about guys like Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain. And I’ve already mentioned the revamped pitching rotation.

And the river of prospects hasn’t exactly dried up. We’ve still got Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura, Bubba Starling, Adalberto Mondesi, and so on. I’ve wondered for a while now, “why can’t we win now AND build for the future simultaneously?” Well, it appears that’s exactly what’s happening in Kansas City.

So get over it. Breaking up is hard to do? Nah. It’s not like we just traded Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez. If you love something set it free, right? Well, let’s “Free Willy” and be happy to have guys like James Shields suiting up in Royal Blue this year. This trade is already a “win” in my opinion. What Myers does in the future won’t sway my thinking…it won’t become a bigger win, nor will it turn into a loss. It was a perfectly fine trade that helped both teams. I don’t care if Myers fails or succeeds. If he does hit .290 with 30 homers, more power to him. If he doesn’t become an All-Star, well…that’s fine, too. It doesn’t matter to me anymore. You have to give something to get something, right? That’s what this trade was – two teams giving value for value. Now let’s focus on the Royals and let the Rays fans worry about Wil.

Opening Day is just around the corner, and there is some real enthusiasm surrounding this team. Maybe when September rolls around and the scoreboard commands us to “Make Some Noise” there will be some actual excitement behind the screams. Maybe there will actually be something on the line for the first time in a very long time. If this team gets on the right track in 2013, Myers will be a footnote in Royals history. The next generation of fans will ask, “Wil who?”

Hit us up at KoKMailbag@gmail.com. On to the bag:

Should Kelvin Herrera move to starter? Why won’t Crow? – Jeremy in Blue Springs

I love the idea of Herrera as a starter and I’m not sold on the reasons being given that he wouldn’t be able to do it. Just because a reliever transitions to starter doesn’t automatically mean that they need to start pacing themselves in an effort to get deeper into games. Of all the pitchers I’ve coached, trained, and all the innings I’ve thrown myself, to have the thought that pitch No.2 needed to be thrown with any less conscious effort than pitch No.88 is befuddling to me. And if I have a pitcher that’s worried about pitch No.88 in the first inning, then I don’t want him pitching for me.

And if there’s a worry that he’ll run out of gas, train better. The biggest misconception about pitchers is that they need some kind of outwardly endurance that can only be acquired by running lots and lots of miles; that pitching is a marathon. It’s not. It’s just not.

Pitching is just a bunch of sprints run one after another with somewhere between a 5 and 10 minute break every 18 or so. If you’re telling me that Herrera’s 100 mph, or any other pitcher’s fastball, can’t last for 6 to 7 sequences of 18 pitches over the course of 2 ½ hours, then I’ll show you an pitcher and an organization that doesn’t know how to condition.

What’s your deal with Gordon? – Steve in Wichita

I’m assuming this one is for me personally since I’m the resident Gordon fanboy around these parts.

I’m a sucker for elite athletes, and as much as I use statistics to frame my arguments, at my core I’m still a baseball fan with a player/coach/recruiter/scouts eye. And because of that the first thing I look for before anything else is the natural body control and movement skills that are unmistakable in terrific athletes. Gordon is one of those guys. There is no weakness to what his athleticism can do – except elite speed – and those are the guys that turn into All-Stars and top tier players. Those are the ones you bet on to fulfill their potential.

How would you have advised Dayton Moore this offseason? – Jordan in Ames

Use the only resource you are truly in abundance of: money. Not talent.

Wil Myers may or may not have been better than Jeff Francoeur this season, but given what we know of Francoeur and his career, the odds are not in his favor. And the idea that prospects are just prospects and they bust is the most self-fulfilling form of dis-logic imaginable. Under that same line of thinking Billy Butler would have never been good, Alex Gordon would have never been good, and any star on any team would have been, and will never be good. It’s the easy way to defend the players that are currently on the team without ever establishing who will be next…

I’m off the rails now…this offseason…

Attack with offense. This is still a lineup that is vastly unproven in the spots that need to improve, and incredibly proven in other spots that will most certainly see 600 plate appearances. The central focus on pitching and pitching only never made much sense to me. There are still at least three glaring holes in the every day lineup with at least two more that could easily be. That’s not a recipe for success.

Wil Myers may have been what the Royals needed to get a return like James Shields, but in the immortal words of Dr. Malcom in Jurassic Park: “you were so preoccupied with whether or not you could that you didn’t stop to think if you should.”

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

However, what if someone told you that the trade almost turned into a missed opportunity? According to Ken Rosenthalof Fox Sports, the Royals were almost too late with their decision.The Rays were in talks with multiple teams about James Shields. The Royals figured the Detroit Tigers were in on the discussions, but instead, it turned out that the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks were at the negotiating table with Tampa Bay. Moore and the Royals had a choice, and it wouldn’t be a cheap one from a talent perspective.

Working late into the night and early morning, Moore and his assistants crammed into a small conference room at their hotel. Moore went to a white board, listed and ranked the organizations top prospects and finally, laid out the price named by the Rays. Four quick swipes from the eraser in Moore’s hand, and the names of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were all removed from the group. Moore looked to his assistants and explained that while the price was high, the return was valuable and essential. The deal was struck and the Royals had beaten the Diamondbacks and Rangers to the punch. The next day Arizona signed Brandon McCarthy to two years and the Rangers moved on in search of help elsewhere. The Royals had landed two extremely important pieces to their future, Shields and Wade Davis, a strong reliever with starting experience.

If that deal wouldn’t have happened, the Royals spring training would have a much different look, feel and buzz surrounding it. Instead of the buzz of Shields and Davis working alongside of Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie, we’d be seeing of Odorizzi was ready to make the jump into the rotation. There would also be the discussion of where Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza fit in the rotation. Out in right field, it’d be Wil Myers alongside of Jeff Francoeur shagging fly balls and preparing to make the full-time jump to the big leagues.

Who knows if the Royals would have shopped around for a suitor to take Myers in exchange for a top-of-the-rotation guy ready to turn the Royals’ woes around. Hell, maybe Moore could have found another team willing to take Myers, while leaving Odorizzi intact with the organization. But, with all that aside, Moore stepped up to the table, grabbed the dice and laid down the big money. With as many years that have passed in Kansas City where fans complain about the passiveness GMs have assumed in the area, Moore silenced those critics while feeding ammunition to his personal critics, for now. The man took a risk, but when the Royals are nipping at the heels of the Tigers, the gallery of critics will sound more like the front pew in church.

I was there to see you drafted, Jeff. There to buy you out of your Clemson scholarship because you held hostage all other organizations saying you’d only play for the Atlanta Braves. How classy. How great. Here was this hometown kid willing to alienate an entire industry just to play for his hometown team. Needless to say, I was smitten at first sight.

Since then, the attraction has turned to a deep yearning. You’re all I can think of, and I’m willing to derail a roster to make you know it.

This mirror holds my eyes too bright
I can’t see the others in my life

I can’t avert my gaze. I can’t stop my thoughts. You’re all I can think about. I rushed to the market to commit two guaranteed years to keep you as my over day right fielder; just as you rushed to the depths of my heart with your infectious smile.

Were we too young? Our heads too strong?
To bear the weight of these lover’s eyes.
‘Cause I feel numb, beneath your tongue
Beneath the curse of these lover’s eyes.

There are times I think we’ve gone too far. Heck, your Wikipedia page was updated to say you were a member of my underwhelming major league roster before you actually were. Our bond, while over-the-top and insanely predictable, knows no bounds.

But do not ask the price I paid,
I must live with my quiet rage,

Wil Myers. Needed. To. Go. There’s no way I could stand by and watch the fans and the media tear you apart as you flailed and flopped your way through another season. I had to remove their temptation. I had to remove your competition. Now you’re front and center, as you should be.

Tame the ghosts in my head,
That run wild and wish me dead.

Stupid bloggers.

Should you shake my ash to the wind
Lord, forget all of my sins
Oh, let me die where I lie
‘Neath the curse of my lover’s eyes.

So what if I took a 72-win team, traded one of baseball’s best offensive prospects and your inevitable replacement, for two arguably marginal upgrade pitchers for the cost, and left you in line to get 600 more plate appearances. I will be forgiven because I’m driven by my affection for you. If that’s the worst that can be said about me, then we’re doing alright, me and you.

‘Cause there’s no drink or drug I’ve tried
To rid the curse of these lover’s eyes
And I feel numb, beneath your tongue
Your strength just makes me feel less strong

I tried it for a couple of years, Jeff, being without you on my team. From the moment I took this job there were jokes made at our expense that our hook-up was only a matter of time. Well, they were right. I inherited David DeJesus, I tried Jose Guillen, but it was always you that I wanted.

But do not ask the price I paid,
I must live with my quiet rage,

Sixteen million of the best dollars I’ve ever spent. I bought high on you in every way possible.

Tame the ghosts in my head,
That run wild and wish me dead.

Stupid bloggers.

Should you shake my ash to the wind
Lord, forget all of my sins
Or let me die where I lie
Neath the curse of my lover’s eyes.

When Wil Myers becomes an impact bat with plus-level plate discipline at a fraction of your price, it still won’t matter. I got two years of a 31-year-old pitcher, and back-and-forth reliever-starter…and I got you.

And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, help me on my way.
And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, I’ll be on my way.

{Instrumental interlude complete with dreams of field-frolicking happiness}

And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, help me on my way.
And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, I’ll be on my way.

Forever, me and you. Forever. My leader. My winner. My Jeff.

La la la, La la la, La la la, la la
La la la, La la la, La la la, la la

I agree that it’s a big trade, but it was an odd statement coming out of a conversation about the relative value of other alternatives.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitchers James Shields (left) and Wade Davis speak during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The frequency with which minor league players of the year are traded early in their big league careers is rare. To have one traded before their big league career truly starts is unprecedented. And if Shields brings a playoff appearance (or two) with him, then yes, it’s probably going to go down as the biggest trade in team history.

But for now, I just can’t put it in that category. It’s too soon to make that claim and there are strong contenders for that title already.

To be the Biggest Trade in Royals History, I’m thinking it has to be transformative. Something that impacts the franchise for years to come. There are some that looked like run-of-the-mill deals but turned out to bring Royals legends into the fold (like the trades that brought Cookie Rojas,  Hal McRae or Amos Otis to Kansas City), but they may not have been the blockbusters that break into SportsCenter today or put the Royals at the center of baseball coverage.

The Zack Greinke trade is close. A year removed from the Cy Young Award, the Royals traded him off for four players who looked like they could all be regular contributors. Alcides Escobar had been a top shortstop prospect for years. Lorenzo Cain was among the Brewers best prospects and even today, despite injury questions, he’s getting every shot to be the everyday center fielder. Jeremy Jeffress‘s potential was being compared to Craig Kimbrel‘s at the time. Some called Jake Odorizzi “Zack Greinke Lite”.

That’s a big trade. In one move the Royals restocked their upper minors and major leagues with potential regulars with room to grow. (And Odorizzi, of course, was included in the Shields trade).

I remember being younger when the Royals traded Bret Saberhagen to the Mets. I wrote more in-depth about this deal a while back, but it wasn’t dissimilar to the Greinke deal. Cy Young winner traded for parts who could contribute soon. It was even bigger to me than the Greinke deal, partly because it was a surprise to me at the time, and partly because Saberhagen had won two Cy Young Awards and had brought a World Championship to Kansas City.

Oct 22, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) hits a base hit against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of game seven of the 2012 NLCS at AT

But to me, the biggest trade, both in names and in meaning to the franchise was the trade that sent Carlos Beltran to Houston and brought Mark Teahen, Mike Wood and John Buck to Kansas City. The Royals weren’t thrust into the spotlight but the symbolism involved was immense. The Royals had already dealt away Jermaine Dye and Johnny Damon. Beltran was the last piece they couldn’t lock down and, in near-desperation to get anything for him, they gambled on players who had to produce.

Wood turned out to be irrelevant. Buck had his moments, but never ended up being anything but a near-average catcher. Teahen looked like a true star in the making after leading the team in homers in 2006, but just two years later, he was falling below replacement level. The Royals missed, just as they’d missed with most of their pitching prospects in the years when they still had Beltran, just as they’d missed on strong returns for All-Star players in Dye and Damon. Missing on the Saberhagen trade didn’t cripple the Royals. Their 1992 wasn’t good, but they were able to turn it around in 1993 and were surging before the strike in 1994.

But this Beltran trade turned many fans away and cemented the “stars won’t stay here” narrative in Royals fans’ psyche. In their best month of the 2004 season, they were three games below .500. They lost 104, 106 and 100 games in the 2004-2006 stretch and have just Chris Getz (who came over from the White Sox for Teahen) as the thread of that deal. The need for a complete rebuild led to the ouster of Allard Baird and the new investment in the farm system that led to going after high-ceiling high-bonus players like Wil Myers.

That’s a lot of baggage in one trade.

Perhaps it’s that issue of the time of the deal. I wasn’t alive when the Otis et al deals were made, and the coverage of those moves would have been drastically different from the 24 hour cycle of sports news and Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors that we have now where there aren’t just reports of the deal but rumors for weeks leading up to it and instant reaction from everyone with a modem. The era changes the perception, and a deal made under similar circumstances in 1983 isn’t going to resonate as loudly as it does now (but then, if Gregg Jefferies had had his numbers from 1993 in 1992, he might have stuck around a bit longer and that trade looks a lot better).

I could see an argument that the Myers-Shields deal is right in the running though. It’s a departure from the last 20 years of rebuilding plans. Now the Royals are going out to get the big fish and giving up big prospects to do so. It makes a statement, and if the Royals win a division or make the playoffs in the next two years, there won’t be a question about it. It will then be the biggest deal in franchise history.

Until then, there’s still a lot of work to do to overcome the impact of moves completed in the past.

With that in mind, I started thinking of my five most significant moments while following the team this year. These aren’t necessarily my favorite moments (really, more like storylines), but the ones that stick out as what I’ll remember most.

5. Spring training injuries, an ominous sign

The 2011 Royals were mostly free from any significant injuries. Bruce Chen hit the disabled list and Matt Treanor was gone after a concussion but otherwise, there weren’t any other injuries that impacted the team much.

Not so in 2012.

Salvador Perez limps off the field to the dugout during spring training. Courtesy of Heather Moore.

It started early with Salvador Perez in the middle of March. A torn meniscus required surgery that kept him out until June. Manny Pina  suffered a torn meniscus of his own, which left the Royals with Brayan Pena as the only catcher on their 40 man roster. That led to the trade for Humberto Quintero, a disaster that sent two reasonable prospects to Houston for a catcher who wouldn’t make it to July before being designated for assignment and Jason Bourgeois, who wasn’t much more useful.

Five days after the Perez injury, Joakim Soria felt pain in his right elbow and an MRI later showed damage to his UCL. He was shut down after Tommy John surgery. Gone was the team’s long-time closer and a potentially valuable trade chip in July. Blake Wood had a similar injury at this time, but the Royals had depth in the bullpen so his injury wasn’t as devastating as the Perez injury.

Towards the end of spring training, Felipe Paulino felt tightness in his right forearm and was placed on the disabled list. He eventually returned in May and made seven starts before hitting the DL again with a groin injury. Then, while rehabbing from that, he ended up with a torn UCL of his own. In a May 13 start, Danny Duffy was hurt after 13 pitches and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery as well.

Lorenzo Cain made a running catch in the fifth game of the year on wet grass in Oakland and strained his groin but also ended up with a hip flexor. He was out until July. Other small things popped up. Mike Moustakas twisted his knee. He didn’t miss more than a few days, but it seemed like it bothered him all year. Right at the end of the year, Eric Hosmer dove for a ball and ended up with a slight tear in his rotator cuff.

4. You get an extension! You get an extension! YOU. GET. AN. EXTENSION!

Dayton Moore has been more than happy to offer extensions to his players. He’d locked up Billy Butler, Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria in the past. Before 2012 even started, he finished off three big extensions for players that look to be significant parts of the next contending Royals team.

February 27: The Royals extend Salvador Perez. First, they bought out his arbitration years by giving him a total of $7 million over the 2012 through 2016 seasons. Team options could keep him in Kansas City until 2019, all for a total of $21.75 million. It’s a fantastic deal, and if he becomes a regular All-Star, it could rival the first Evan Longoria extension as one of the best values in recent baseball history.

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) makes the stop and throws to first base for the out in the eighth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

March 15: The Royals extend Alcides Escobar. When they got him in the Greinke trade, Escobar had been one of the best shortstop prospects in the game for a while and for year was Milwaukee’s number one minor leaguer. They saw a guy with potential to be one of the best in the game, and they’ve got him until 2017 after options. It’s another affordable deal, a great move for a small market team. The total value of the contract (without award bonuses) would be $22.25 million through 2017.

March 30: The Royals extend Alex Gordon. At the time, this deal looked a bit like a risk (though a worthy one). Gordon’s inconsistencies have been well-documented over the years and his 2011 looked like the outlier. But after a fully healthy season where he looked more comfortable than ever, the Royals were convinced. He signed a deal that could keep him in Kansas City until after 2016 for a total of $50 million if Gordon exercises his 2016 option year. He’ll be set for a $12.5 million salary that year, which, by that time, might be well below his value if he’s still productive.

3. The Streak

April was miserable.

Oh, It started out fine while the Royals were on the road. The Royals won a series against the Angels, were set to win the series against Oakland and could have landed in Kansas City for the home opener with a 4-2 record.

Instead, Jonathan Broxton walked two after a strikeout and an error, then, after a run scored to tie the game, beaned two batters to load the bases and drive in the winning run.

Then, in the home opener, Luke Hochevar allowed seven runs in the first inning as the Royals, putting them out of the game right away. It was fitting, then, that the Royals ended up losing their next ten games, a stretch which put them out of the division pretty much right out of the gate. It was often pointed out that “without the streak” the Royals would have a much better looking record. And sure, if they go .500 in that streak instead of 0-12, they’d have finished 78-84, which would be the best record the Royals have had under Dayton Moore.

But that month. Oof. Just awful.

2. Free Wil Myers – Wil Myers Has Been Freed

It was a nice run. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Wil Myers had a rough 2011. A random gash on his knee (suffered while running from his car to his apartment) became infected. He struggled after starting strong in 2009 and continuing the momentum in 2010. A very good showing in the Arizona Fall League showed that he had shaken off any injury issues and he started 2012 strong.

Starting out in Double A, hitting 13 homers in 35 games. He was hitting .343 when he was promoted to Triple A. The bombs kept coming. He added 24 more homers, kept getting on base and finished with 37 homers.

Meanwhile, in Kansas City, Jeff Francoeur was struggling at the plate and slow in the field. For all the discussion about his leadership, he wasn’t contributing much in the field. After April, he had a .574 OPS. He heated up in May, but he wasn’t able to sustain the momentum. It was about June that Wil Myers was crushing Triple A pitching and Frenchy was floundering. Every day, discussions popped up about Super Two deadlines and if Myers would be outside the service time range if called up on this day or that. The major league right fielder was stinking up the joint, but their top prospect – who happened to play in the outfield as well – was rolling.

It seemed like an obvious move, but not one the Royals ever made.

By the All-Star break, it was starting to look like the Royals weren’t going to promote Myers to the big leagues. He received a rousing ovation in the All-Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium with every at bat. But by August, it was pointless to start his service time for two months while the Royals were headed for another losing season. Resigned, Royals fans looked toward 2013.

We know how this story ended, though, as Myers is now free – but he’ll make his major league debut as a Tampa Bay Ray rather than a Kansas City Royal.

1. The All-Star Game

I hope you were able to get to Kansas City for any part of the All-Star Game festivities. I really do.

For me, it was my favorite baseball week since I’ve been a fan. From the way the city got behind the event, to the events going around besides just the games, everything was memorable.

It started out with a Thursday preview event where I got to tour the FanFest setup as they were putting it together at the Kansas City Convention Center. By this time, all the fountains in the area were dyed with blue and the city came together to put on a show. We talked with Bob Kendrick of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum about their events for the week as well.

On Saturday, I started with a morning baseball history tour that took me by the locations of many of the old fields for various teams who played in Kansas City like the Blues, the A’s the Monarchs. We stopped at Satchel Paige‘s grave and his old neighborhood. As usual, many had left baseballs for him, and it turned out that we had visited on his birthday.

Then, I went out to FanFest. I’d originally thought it would just be one of those things that you do if you have kids. But it was far more than that. Right when I first arrived, I heard that Andre Dawson was talking in one area, so I went and listened to Andre Dawson. Then I looked through the Hall of Fame exhibits which included items from Royals history and Major League Baseball History. I saw the World Series trophy from the 1985 team. There was the Pine Tar bat. It was all there.

Everything had convened into this one baseball mecca, a combination of booths, former players, speakers, presentations, exhibits and even activities for everyone. I did a baserunning simulation and stole a base. I made my own baseball card. Cal Ripken and Barry Larkin ran teams through fielding drills. I listened to Bob Motley, former Negro Leagues umpire, talk about bus confrontations and calling games for Satchel Paige.

Sunday was busy, as I was part of a Baseball Prospectus event that put writers like Jason Parks, Kevin Goldstein, Rany Jazayerli and Rob Neyer in the line of fire as they answered questions from BP readers at the historic Gem Theater. The next panel was a group of executives and agents, including Dan Evans, former GM of the Dodgers and Tyrone Brooks, part of the Pirates front office. Then the Royalman Report took over.

We took Royals questions for an hour along with Craig Brown of Royals Review and it was an honor to be included as part of the event in any way.

Packed house to see Aaron, Robinson and Winfield at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, 7/8/12.

Across the street, Dave Winfield, Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron were talking at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. The place was packed. Aaron talked about hitting bottlecaps with broomsticks and Robinson talked about traveling and being a player-manager. The place was packed to listen to the three Hall of Famers and it was an awesome sight (and that’s the true meaning of awesome in this case).

That evening the Futures Game was the big attraction and with Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura and Myers all starting, it was packed with Royals fans. It was a lopsided game, but fans stuck around to the end. Following that, the Celebrity Softball game started up (though I didn’t stay for that part). We recorded another podcast that night from the Flying Saucer, just because.

On Monday, Robinson Cano was the big story at the Home Run Derby as he was booed mercilessly for snubbing Billy Butler for the event. Mark Trumbo put one on the roof of the Hall of Fame. Prince Fielder stole the show, winning the Derby for the second time. Some painted Kansas City in a bad light with their commentary, though most really just missed the point.

Then, the finale. The All-Star Game.

Billy Butler’s All-Star Moment

Billy Butler was announced and received a standing ovation. While there’s been some said about how many fans haven’t quite embraced him (he’s too slow, he doesn’t hit enough homers, etc), it changed for a lot that week and that day. Chants of “BIL-LY BUT-LER” filled the Kauffman Stadium night. In the stands, towards the end of the game, fans were counting batters to see if Butler would get another at bat. He finally did in the bottom of the ninth but struck out.

After the game, a video ran that showed all of the week’s moments from all around the city. It was special to be in Kansas City at that moment, with countless fans showing excitement for the team. I got the feeling of what it might be like to be inside Kauffman Stadium someday when the team is competitive or playing in October. It was electric.

Bob Dutton put it best in remembering the All-Star break: “This city wants to love this team. All it wants is to be loved back.”

All of our coverage of the All-Star Game and related events (and history) is archived here.

It isn’t like Royals fans haven’t been through this before. Tona Pena Jr. was heralded for his defensive genius, and that genius “made him a more-than-suitable every day shortstop” in the major leagues. It didn’t.

Yuniesky Betancourt was acquired the first time (!) in a trade because the Royals felt (well, we can only assume this is how they felt) they were buying low on a starting caliber shortstop with the potential for an elite glove and the occasional production at the plate. He wasn’t. Betancourt was then acquired for the second time (!!) because of some kind of attitude that the team and coaches really liked, and they thought would be helpful and willing to except a backup role. Again, he wasn’t.

In all, each of these scenarios were, and are, entirely understandable. There’s no reason for a team to be open and honest about how bad a player is, even when the stats prove the case. But, when the defense of those stats is predicated on some mythical understanding of the World of Baseball, well then there’s an issue. And that is the territory we’ve entered into with the Royals.

A recent press conference about the 2013 Royals and the acquisition of two pitchers at the expense of Wil Myers (the obvious and eventual replacement for Francoeur in right field), took an expected turn. Questions were asked about the status of right field with the implications that a team going “all in” can’t possibly be unaware of the damage they’ve done to the offense by trading the replacement for what was one of, if not the, worst players in baseball a season ago.

Now whether or not you believe trading Myers at this point in The Process was a shrewd move (it wasn’t, really, given all the dynamics) or not isn’t the point. The point is that Dayton Moore and the Royals have so convinced themselves, so brainwashed themselves, so believe in the unicorn that is Jeff Francoeur, that they are willingly aligning their reputations with him by being so steadfast in their commitment towards him.

Which would be fine, if some sort of objective measure did the aligning. It’s not. Francoeur is a “winning type player” despite the fact that he’s played on more teams in his career that have lost 90 games than haven’t. Despite the fact that he was once traded in mid season from a team, and then that team played nearly 10-wins better without him. Despite…well you get the idea.

And so, here are just a handful of statements about Jeff Francoeur, factual statements, about his career in the major leagues. No editorial comment accompanies these statements other than to say simply: they are facts and are easily acquired by a couple of mouse clicks and pivot tables.

• Jeff Francoeur fWAR rank among all right fielders since 2008: 2008: 22nd of 22; 2009: 23rd of 25; 2010: 22nd of 26; 2011: 14th of 23; 2012: 22nd of 23.

• Jeff Francoeur fWAR rank among all outfielders since 2008: 2008: 62nd of 62; 2009: 57th of 62; 2010: 54th of 62; 2011: 33rd of 62; 2012: 56th of 57.

• Since 2008 the only right fielders with 1500 plate appearances or more with a lower SLG than Jeff Francoeur: Kosuke Fukudome, Ichiro Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, and Mark Teahen.

• Since 2008, of all outfielders in baseball with 1500 plate appearances or more, there is only one with a lower wRC+ than Jeff Francoeur: Mark Teahen.

• Since 2008, Jeff Francoeur ranks last of 62 qualified right fielders in Win Probability Added, at -9.66. Next to last is Austin Kearns at -5.21.

• Since 2000, among right fielders with at least 2000 PAs, Jeff Francoeur ranks 71st of 73 in wOBA. Rob Mackowiak is higher.

• From 2000-2012, there have been 183 players play in at least 1000 games, Jeff Francoeur ranks 163rd in fWAR.

• Francoeur has 84 stolen base attempts in his career. During that same time, 114 players have at least 80 stolen base attempts. Francoeur is second-to-last with a 58% success rate.

• There have been 521 outfielders receive at least 4000 plate appearances since 1900, Jeff Francoeur ranks 502nd in OBP.

• From 1900-2012, 1,202 players (all positions) received at least 4000 plate appearances, Jeff Francoeur ranks 1,078th among them in OBP.

• In 293 games as a Royal, Mark Quinn had 2.7 fWAR. In 301 games as a Royal, Jeff Francoeur has 1.7 fWAR.

• In seven full major league seasons, Jeff Francoeur has been on a team that has lost at least 90 games, four times.

After the blockbuster trade of Wil Myers (plus) for James Shields and Wade Davis, we had to go out and get another opinion on the trade.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

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As the hot stove warms up, it was time to cover the latest roster moves by the Royals in advance of the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

What I offer the viewing public is a hazy answer to these two questions: What would it have looked like if Shields had been a part of the Royals rotation in 2012? And by extension, to what extent might he impact 2013? Obviously, there are many flaws in this inquiry; most obvious among them is the person conducting it. But also, the high level of turnover makes the 2013 rotation virtually incomparable to the 2012 rotation. But using my favorite friends conjecture and speculation I’ll find a way to make it seem like I’ve stumbled upon some grand statistical truth. Or not. Yeah?

Ok. Check the methods. I started by constructing the numbers for the Royals starters from last year (this is why they may look a tenth off from other sites). I actually added up all the numbers from only their starters and did the averages and everything. So, essentially what I’m doing is replacing an average Royals starting pitcher from 2012 with Shield’s 2012. This is a little disingenuous because in reality, Shields would have crowded out some of the worst performances so chalk it up to a conservative statistical exercise. I chose to use Shields’ 2012 not just because it’s the obvious choice to compare to the Royals’ starting pitching in 2012 but also because it’s pretty representative of what people should expect from Shields in 2013. This inquiry also doesn’t account for Shields’ ability to eat innings—meaning if Shields had been in the rotation last year the Royals starters would have gone more total innings. It’s just a replacement of his innings for average Royals innings.

Here’s what I came up with:

Royals*          Shields          Royals w/Shields

Earned Runs             495                 89                   457

Hits                             981                 208                 938

Walks                          315                 58                   292

ERA                             5.00                3.52               4.62

WHIP                          1.46                1.17                1.38

*These are numbers for all 13 pitchers who started a game for the Royals last season

There you have it, a pretty remarkable difference. Almost half-a-run in improved ERA is pretty significant for one pitcher to bring to the table. He can have that type of impact because he pitches so many innings. His 227.2 innings pitched represent more than a quarter of the total number of innings Royals starters pitched in 2012—890. That is both incredible and not surprising. It’s incredible that Shields gives his team so many innings; it’s also incredible how little the Royals starters pitched last year. So it’s not surprising that Shields’ numbers make such a large dent. In innings, he’s worth 1.25 Royals starting pitchers in 2012, which if you’re a stats person is just nuts.

How do the numbers with Shields in the Royals lineup compare to the rest of the league? Still not great, but better. American League average for starting pitching ERA was 4.39, which isn’t too far away from the Royals numbers with Shields in the rotation. Last year, they were 11th in starting pitcher ERA (AL). Personally, I was shocked to learn they weren’t last or next to last. With Shields, they would have only moved up to 10th, but remember this is a pretty conservative estimate. I think it’s fair to say that in reality, with him replacing the worst performances, they might have made it near the 7-8 range.*

*This is off topic, but sometimes I wonder how this team even won 72 games last year. They were just not very good at all.

Looking ahead, I’m thinking this provides a little rosy glow to a trade many, including me, have criticized as short-sighted and reckless. Assuming the Royals get a Shields performance circa the last two years, he’ll greatly impact the rotation. The odds of a 12 game losing streak decrease dramatically, and there’s something to be said for playing with a lead entering the sixth inning occasionally. Consider that no starting pitcher for the Royals was worth more than 1.8 WAR last season, and Shields was worth 4.3, and this trade makes 2013 look hopeful. Are the Royals the favorite in the AL Central? No. But they’re in the conversation for sure.

I imagine the Royals have the chance to make it to around 4.00 ERA as a starting staff next season if everything falls into place. This would be a HUGE help. Last season, that would have been good enough for 5th in the American League just ahead of the Angels. That, of course, will require good seasons from Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis as well. That’s probably asking too much, but what the hell, dream big.

Thanks to copious amounts of propaganda and time to emotionally detach from the transaction, I’m starting to feel much better about it. Is it a HUGE gamble? Yes. Essentially, Moore is betting that in the next two years Shields, and in the next four years Davis, provide enough value in helping the team win to make up for the lost value of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi from 2015-2018, at least. That could mean increasing revenue via winning so they can spend to sign position players long term. It could mean buying time to let Jorge Bonifacio develop and counting on him to become a legitimate everyday outfielder at the major league level. Whatever the scenario, it’s a huge gamble.

But I’m starting to fall on the side of those who think the Royals had to gamble at some point. Yes, the price was high; that’s gambling. They don’t give money to people who don’t bet. Trust me, I’ve tried that strategy and it doesn’t work. The alternative may have been to keep Myers and live with a very uncertain rotation for another year or two or more, essentially guaranteeing a non-contending team in 2013 and maybe again in 2014. People can quote all the Anibal Sanchez numbers they want; he was never coming to Kansas City. Anything less than Shields gave them an even worse shot at competing. So, when does that end? Dayton Moore decided it would end in 2013 and that he would worry about 2015 later. That might be the best move for the Royals right now. It sounds like hedging my bets, but it’s true that we won’t know until 2016 or so—maybe sooner if the Royals make the playoffs in 2013 or 2014.

I’ll leave you with a quote from one of my favorite movies, Rounders, that I think perfectly sums up the argument for why this trade might be a good one for the Royals (I say ‘might’). In it Mike McDermott, played by the awesomely badass Matt Damon, is torn between going for a big score in a poker game or playing it safe and walking away:

“I told Worm you can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle.” (He pauses for dramatic effect as he’s nearly out the door)

“But you can’t win much either.”

James Shields. Photo Credit: Tim Heitman – USA Today

The Royals and Rays put themselves into the spotlight today after their Sunday night seven-player trade with Wil Myers and James Shields as the principle players involved. Everyone was talking about it. National writers, local writers, people on Twitter and Facebook. All of baseball. Reactions have ranged from apoplectic to ecstatic to hyperbolic. Some have doubled down on their dislike, some have started to accept the deal.

I’m honestly still sorting it out for myself.

To me, the trade hinges on two questions – 1) Is Wil Myers for real? and 2) Are the Royals actually close?

If both are true, then both teams come out strong in the trade, but in different ways. The Rays get to re-load their farm system with players with gobs of service time left who should contribute. The Royals get an honest-to-God #1 starter who can take the mound on opening day and who could, if it comes to it, start a deciding game at the end of the year.

If 1 is true and 2 is not, the Royals lose. Big time. Wil Myers, as Rany Jazayerli pointed out, had the most homers in the high minor leagues by a 21-year-old since 1963. While doing so, he also hit .300 and walked at an acceptable rate. Yes, he struck out a lot, but it was a conscious decision to get more power and production at the expense of some contact. Myers has been regarded as a great judge of the strike zone who’s almost too picky, so he got more aggressive and homered 37 times last year. Many thought he could be a 25-30 homer guy in the majors and had the ability to hit for average as well. That’s a great player (although it seems a lot more skeptics have crept out of the woodwork in the last 24 hours). If the Royals aren’t that close, then they just tossed away a potential All-Star for a shot at 81 wins. Remember, this was a 72 win team in 2012, so to get to the 88 wins that won the AL Central last year, they have to come up with 16 more than last year. I’m not sure that Shields does that.

Ho hum. More awards. (Photo: Minda Haas)

If 1 isn’t true but 2 is, the Royals win. I’m a believer in Myers, but can’t deny that I don’t know how he’ll hit major league pitching because he’s never faced major league pitching. While I don’t think it’s fair to say “well he’s just a prospect” because he’s not just ANY prospect. He was the Minor League Player of the Year. He’s hit at every level. But let’s say he flounders, or he only ends up in the .280 range with 15 homers per year. That’s still a player of value, but not a middle of the order hitter. Tropicana Field isn’t a homer-friendly park, so maybe that costs him five homers a year. If the Royals turn out to be one big pitcher away, things break the right way and they make the playoffs, most would consider it worth it after the long-term drought.

If neither are true, then it’s a wash. Everyone got up in arms over nothing.

On the surface then, both teams got quality in return and I think the Royals gave up more quality and quality players in a situation more friendly for their new teams. If Wil Myers struggles in 2013, the Rays have him for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and (if they’re smart) 2019 and he can turn it around at any point there. The Royals have basically two years to get their value out of this trade. Shields is good, but he can’t do it alone.

Of course, the trade isn’t just Shields and Myers. The Royals shipped off their top prospect in Myers, a top pitching prospect in Jake Odorizzi, and a pitcher who twice was their top overall prospect in Mike Montgomery (along with Burlington third baseman Patrick Leonard) and got a speculative Wade Davis back, who they say they’ll put in the rotation. Odorizzi looked great in Wilmington and hit some rough patches in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, but generally, he’s regarded as a middle rotation pitcher, which can have value, especially when he’s playing at the league minimum (or close) for three years. Montgomery gives the Rays immense upside to play with. He’s the lottery ticket. If he figures out his command, the Rays have a good left-handed arm at their disposal. They’ve turned out a lot of great pitching lately (which is what puts them in the position to trade Shields and Davis in the first place) and their philosophy is more in line with Montgomery’s throwing program as well.

That feels like a lot, and I think is what drove much of the “worst trade ever” discussion.

But it’s still not a great trade. I’ve said before that the Royals had options. They were in on Ryan Dempster, who has had success just as Shields has. They added payroll that bumped them up to an estimated $84 million, well over their reported $70 million cap. Why not sign another starter out there, even overpaying a bit, to allow yourself to keep Myers. I’d rather the Royals pay too much money than with too many prospects. When you consider that Shields only has two years left on his deal and is into his thirties, while the Rays get the full extent of their new acquisitions’ playing time (save a couple weeks of Odorizzi), and it’s troubling. This is the affordable talent the Royals were after when rebuilding the farm system.

Jeff Francoeur is going to be under heavy scrutiny after Wil Myers was traded. Photo Credit: Kim Klement – USA Today

Sure, the Royals could challenge for the playoffs, but there are so many factors in play. They have about two years to do so, unless a prospect really develops quickly. They’ll have to replace Jeff Francoeur in 2014 and the farm system’s next best outfield prospects are still in the lower levels (Bubba Starling and Jorge Bonifacio). They’ll have to roll the dice on a free agent or make another trade to replace Francoeur or hand it over to David Lough, who they’ve never seen to trust, or move Cain over from center field to play him in right with Jarrod Dyson in center. Those options aren’t ideal and create some question marks. The Royals second base situation is still murky. The other starters in the rotation have to be good as well. If Jeremy Guthrie turns into an average pitcher like he’s usually been or gets worse, if Ervin Santana gets hurt or doesn’t regain form, if Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar continue to stink or Luis Mendoza turns back into a pumpkin, it won’t matter who’s at the top of the rotation. The Royals are also counting on Wade Davis to be a capable starter, when he found great success out of the bullpen last year after lackluster results as a starter.

The Royals also have to avoid significant injuries, regression from Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, continued struggles from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Salvador Perez has to stay healthy. And the defense has to be much more efficient (Rany cited a measurement that the Rays rated much better than the Royals at actually converting plays into outs). Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino can’t suffer setbacks and had better be strong when they return after Tommy John surgery.

That’s a lot of things that have to go right for the Royals. It’s a lot of things that have to go wrong, too. They’ll probably land in the middle somewhere, which just doesn’t feel like it’ll be enough.

But 2014, maybe that’s the good year. The Royals make a jump from 72 wins to 84 or so in 2013, then build off of that success in 2014. If that’s the case, they have to be in front or close by mid-season, or else Shields is a candidate to get flipped for more prospects. The Royals would be back where they’d started, but without Myers, without Shields, without Francoeur and two years farther into Hosmer and Moustakas’s service time. In that scenario, the Royals had better hope that Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura are ready because they’ll be the best chances for pitching success out of the system.

It’s a big gamble. It’s new territory. I could see the argument that we may value our own prospects more than necessary, but in the case of Myers and Odorizzi, they’re real prospects, regarded by many as real contributors in the future. It’s not overrating Orlando Calixte because most of the news on him will tout his abilities to point him out to everyone.

This trade improves the Royals rotation, but it doesn’t do enough. Even with Shields, the Royals are gambling on a lot to go right when so much has gone wrong for so long. The clock is ticking. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised.

Photos by Minda Haas

The Royals were clearly after James Shields during the winter meetings and when the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke, it opened up the need for the Royals to go after getting the deal done.

My initial reaction? To get Shields, who isn’t a true ace, and Davis, who was moved to the bullpen last year, still improves the Royals rotation in 2013, but at a steep price. Mike Montgomery hadn’t put it together in Triple A, but the velocity and left-handedness give him an opportunity for a new start in Tampa and they could reinvigorate him. He never seemed a fit for the Royals training approach, and, as Jason Parks said on the Kansas City Baseball Vault, the Rays like to throw. Montgomery is a long-toss guy, so that regimen fits him. Odorizzi in the deal is confusing, as he seemed like he had a shot to be in the rotation next year at some point.

Myers, though, is the key, and most think he can be a perennial star hitter. He’s not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but some have compared him to Ryan Braun with his ability to make contact and hit for power.

Obviously, this is a big deal and the Royals are going for it in 2013 and 2014, but my initial reaction – this team better make a wild card spot or win the division the next two years or it’s a big loss.

Wil Myers…future star for Kansas City, or someone else? Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

The winter meetings have been, for the Royals at least, a whole lot of speculation without much activity. It’s like lighting that huge professional grade firework you paid $100 for, and watching it fizzle and go out with a whimper rather than a bang. The Royals have been attached to several free agents and trade candidates…but whether anything happens remains to be seen.

The question on the mind of most fans: will the Royals trade Wil Myers to improve the rotation?

It’s looking less likely now than a week ago. At one point it seemed as if every key Royals hitter was on the table, now, who knows? The trick for Dayton Moore, of course, is making sure the player(s) the Royals get in return make sense.

Wil Myers, for example, is probably more valuable now than he might ever be – but does that mean trading him for a 38 year old pitcher makes sense? No. Not even if that aging pitcher is 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. And thankfully, it seems that ship has sailed. I’m not saying I wouldn’t make a trade for Dickey, but it can’t include Myers. No way.

Myers for Shields? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Is it worth moving Myers for a pitcher like James Shields? Maybe. Shields is younger than Dickey and would be the number one pitcher in the KC rotation, but he’s only got a couple more years of team control on his contract versus about six for Myers.

And what if Myers turns into a guy who hits .280 with 25 homers on a yearly basis? Is that a deal you regret? Or do you get enough out of Shields that it makes sense? It’s the kind of deal, if Shields were to come here and pitch well, that could change the culture of this organization. A pitcher like Shields could get this team on track enough that it lures future free agents to KC and maybe sees this team in the postseason. That’s worth it…right?

It’s a slippery slope for Moore. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes. Just being a fan at this point makes me nervous enough…and my job doesn’t hang in the balance.

Listening to various baseball insiders on the radio and reading the blurbs on Twitter and MLBTR…no matter how much info is out there, one thing is clear – nobody knows what’s going to happen at this point. The Royals have been attached to the Mets, Rays, Orioles, Mariners, and been thrown into the mix of a four-team trade over the past few days…but so far…nothing.

And maybe, given the question marks surrounding a trade of a player like Myers, the best trade is no trade at all. Can the Royals ever trade a guy like Myers or Billy Butler and feel comfortable with it? Is there a way to “win” that trade? Maybe…I would argue that Moore did really well when he moved Zack Greinke, but a lot of that will depend on whether or not Jake Odorizzi pans out.

This time around, though, most fans are going to judge any trade that doesn’t result in a new number one starter in KC as a failure. Trading Butler for three prospects is not going to excite the average Kansas City fan. Trading Myers in a deal that brings back anything less than one of the Tampa starters seems like it will disappoint the majority.

Is Marcum the answer? Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe the best move the Royals can make is to sit back and let a couple of signings, like Greinke and even Anibal Sanchez (does anyone really believe we have a shot at him?), happen and set the tone. Maybe the best thing for Moore is to pursue the second tier starting pitchers like Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, and Ryan Dempster.

Believe me…I went into this wanting a fireworks show…but at this point, the speculation has exhausted me, and I’m almost to afraid of what will happen if we do make a trade. Someone like Marcum isn’t as exciting as adding a guy like Shields or Dickey, but sometimes the best trade you make is the one you don’t.

Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that #Royals may be at critical stage in decision on whether to trade Myers for an SP such as #Rays’ Shields.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2012

No further explanation of what “critical stage” means. No further explanation of if an offer had been made.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Wil Myers is a top five overall prospect. He’s a potential superstar in the middle of the order. Yes, he’s just a prospect, but that “just” is a pretty darn good prospect. That seems to be the main idea behind why some are fully in support – not just accepting, begrudgingly or otherwise – but actively hoping for.

Why the outrage? Well here’s my take. Myers, once he debuts, will have at least six seasons of team control. At least two of those will be very cost-effective seasons before he reaches arbitration. If the Royals time it right (waiting about two or three weeks), they can get five months of Wil Myers in 2013 and six full years after. Most scouts and evaluators see Myers as a middle of the order bat, capable of 25-30 homers. He’s always been considered one of the best at judging the strike zone in the minors, and, at 21 years old, could have the best sense of the strike zone on the team, second only to Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. He can hit for power and for average.

That’s a very good player.

True, he may never reach that potential. He may struggle early and take some time to develop as a big leaguer. That’s part of the risk and can’t be ignored. He struck out 140 times last year, well above his prior high in a season. He’s new to the outfield and may become an average big league right fielder at best. He’s not a speedster though he runs well. A good amount of his value is in his bat (though not quite like Billy Butler, and there’s still a chance Myers can be a good outfielder and steal 10+ bases a year).

Now James Shields is a very good pitcher. He’s been one of my favorites for a long time. I snag him every year in rotisserie baseball leagues because he throws a lot of innings, strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t walk too many. I’m not saying he isn’t good. He definitely is.

October 2, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But the problem is that Shields is under contract for only two more years.

The Royals won 72 games last year. James Shields doesn’t take them to 88. He may not take them to 84. He would improve the rotation, but it’s not as if the Royals were two games away and needed one more arm to push them over. They’re still working on the rebuilding and development side. Definitely on the upswing, but not there yet.

Some say it’s worth making the move if your team wins a World Series or gets into the playoffs even. While that would be amazing and I couldn’t be upset about it (that’d be crazy), again, it’s not as if Shields takes this team over and makes them challenge Detroit right away. There’s a chance, sure, but it’s still a flimsy proposition. Myers doesn’t make that difference up either, but here’s the key part of the move that I don’t like.

2013: Royals see improvement with James Shields in the rotation. Jeff Francoeur plays right field. Wil Myers (potentially) challenges for Rookie of the Year

2014: Jeff Francoeur is gone. James Shields sits atop an improved Royals rotation, a year older and 230 innings farther along. Wil Myers is (potentially) still rolling. The Royals have ______ in right field.

2015: Jeff Francoeur is gone. James Shields is gone. Wil Myers is gone.

The Royals give themselves a two year window to “win now” with Shields in that case, and maybe it works. Fantastic if so. But the alternatives aren’t too bad out on the market either. The Royals were connected to Anibal Sanchez again this afternoon, almost as strongly connected to him as they’ve been all offseason. If the Royals can take on Shields’s salary of an additional $9 million right now, why not take on Sanchez at $14 or 15 million? Adding Shields puts the Royals at an estimated $75 million. Is that so far from $80 million? Okay, then find a way to move Luke Hochevar or Bruce Chen and that’s $4.5 million right there – back at the same level you would have been with Shields.

Or sign Brandon McCarthy for $10 million over two years if he’s interested. You have the same improved rotation for a two year window, but keep Myers.

Or Shaun Marcum. Or Ryan Dempster. Or trade a smaller batch of prospects for Bud Norris. Or Jonathan Niese.

There are other options.

If the deal was to take on Matt Moore, the loss of Myers is okay, because Moore is signed through 2019 if all options are exercised. It’s feasible to say that Myers could be signed to an extension at some point that could put him in a similar position of buying out his first two years of free agency. The Royals also give themselves more shots to cash in on the trade. With Shields, they’d only have two seasons to make it happen. With Moore, they’d have more opportunities. And if the Rays don’t give him up? Fine. Don’t answer the phone when Andrew Friedman calls back.

The kicker, though, is that Bob Dutton and Jon Heyman both think that it would take MORE than just Wil Myers to get James Shields. There’s no idea of how much more, but to me, even the idea of more is getting absurd. Even more reason to pass.

There can be a tendency to overvalue prospects. I like Jason Adam. We’ve talked to him on the podcast often and he’s a good kid. But many other teams have a tall righty who throws 92-93 with good makeup and who projects as a #3 or #4, so making him untouchable is a bit silly. Every team has that live armed pitcher they hope can be a starter but may be a better back-end reliever. But we might overdo it on the Yordano Ventura hype. It happens. The curse of familiarity, maybe. We know the names, we follow their progress and it gets us thinking of better days. But they’re both top 10 prospects in the organization and they do have value.

But when a prospect is truly elite. When every expert and publication puts that player at the top of their prospect lists, when the stats and scouts agree, that player isn’t just a prospect anymore.

According to Jeff Passan, Royals officials are meeting right now to discuss the ideas. We’ll see how they decide.

The Royals got their fair share of mentions, though. Most of the day followed the ongoing R.A. Dickey saga, in which the Mets were trying the two-front approach of either signing him to an extension through 2015 or trading him as part of their rebuild. They don’t seem close to either, but the Royals seemed to be frontrunners for him in a deal if they gave up on the extension side of things.

Wil Myers – looking to the future. Photo: Minda Haas

What’s prevented any action, though, is the Mets insistence on Wil Myers as the return. It’s been said by many commenting on it that the Mets are well in their rights to ask for a lot for Dickey. He’s had three strong years in a row and was last year’s Cy Young Award winner. He’s not a supplemental piece. But the perception that follows him is that he’s a knuckleballer, and that brings a squeamish feeling to some. It’s not mainstream. Life gets a lot easier for baseball executives when a guy is 6’4″ and buzzes a fastball up there at 95 mph and throws a slider. It’s typical, it’s comfortable. It’s expected. That makes Dickey (seemingly) hard to project.

So gauging his value becomes difficult as well, and while his stats on their own probably warrant a good return, his age and unorthodox profile make him what some probably see as a risk.

For that reason, the Royals aren’t giving up Wil Myers for him. It’s not just a no, it’s a hell no:

Wondering if Mets can convince KC to part w Wil Myers? Text from a Royals source,asked if Myers too much to give for Dickey: “Yes yes yes”

— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) December 4, 2012

That should start to give a hint to the Royals value of Myers. Perhaps they value James Shields and Jon Lester above Dickey, but if not, the deals that were rumored to be tossed around last week are probably far from happening. Danny Knobler reported that the Royals are more likely to deal Myers than Billy Butler or other current major leaguers.

If Dickey or those trade options don’t work out, the Royals are still supposedly in on Anibal Sanchez, and Jon Morosi said that he has “multiple” five-year offers. The trend is that his demands of six years and $90 million may not be what he signs for, but, again, the pitching market is waiting on Zack Greinke to sign. If he signs for a bigger deal than expected, it’ll bump up the other available pitchers.

A lot of today’s best tidbits came from a Bob Dutton chat on the Kansas City Star’s site:

• The Royals seem reluctant to deal a “key element” of the lineup right now.
• Dutton wouldn’t rule out a deal that might include an everyday second baseman, but most likely it’ll be either Chris Getz or Johnny Giavotella. Whichever doesn’t make it may not be on the opening day roster.
• Dutton categorized the Royals chances of signing Sanchez as “very slim”.
• If the Royals can’t work out a trade, the pitchers out there like Brett Myers and Francisco Liriano will become more attractive to them.
• The Royals odds of signing Greinke? “How close can you get to zero without reaching zero?”
• A question about Luke Hochevar led to a long response from Dutton that can be summed up as when Hochevar is good, he has #2 upside. He admitted, though, that when Hochevar is bad, he’s dreadful.
• John Lamb and Kyle Zimmer are both potential fast-track pitchers this year who might – might – push for big league action late in 2013, but are more likely to be around in 2014.
• And finally, the Orioles have indicated some interest in Jeff Francoeur, though there’s no indication that a deal has even been brought up. Any move would probably require the Royals eat some salary.

There were a couple of trades tonight among other teams and as more players sign, other teams will feel the need to be more aggressive, so tomorrow may be a busy day for the Royals. Or they could keep setting up deals for the post-meeting period.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

EVERYONE wants to see Myers make his Major League debut after his highly successful 2012 season that saw him take every minor league award, like Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year Award. However, the Royals seem to want to hold him back (and now trade him for starting pitching).

Myers began the season back in Double-A, where he struggled in 2011. He hit .343 in 35 games with 13 homeruns. He moved up to Triple-A and was named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star Team (he was also a postseason all-star). He started in right right for the US team at the Futures Game and everyone wanted him to stay at Kauffman Stadium following that game (except for the Royals). Remember when he shattered the camera glass behind home plate on a nasty line drive?

With Omaha, Myers hit .304 in 99 games. He hit 24 homeruns and drove in 79 runs. He helped Omaha to their second straight PCL championship appearance. Unfortunately, the Storm Chasers lost to Reno and Myers struggled throughout the postseason.

Despite his struggles on offense in 2011, his strikeouts were not too bad (87 compared to 52 walks in 354 at-bats). With more at-bats in 2012 (522), his strikeout totals rose to 140. That could be a HUGE issue against big league pitching.

The biggest question mark (besides when he will make his debut) is what position Myers will play. He hasn’t quite adjusted to the outfield, which may be the reason the Royals have held him back. He even played some third base this season, but made two errors in just 31 chances. In the outfield, he had just one assist compared to three errors in 153 chances.

Myers is now the consensus number one prospect for the Royals.

Who knows if Myers will even be with the Royals when spring training rolls around in February? His name has been swirling all offseason in trade talks, mainly with Boston and Tampa Bay, and it will only get stronger with the Winter Meetings next week. Hopefully, he is still a Royal and is starting in the outfield when the season opens in April.

Now is not the time to panic. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I have two items, not really items I guess…but wishes, on my Christmas list this year. The first is for David Glass to stop being so damn cheap. Wish number two is for Dayton Moore not to panic.

I hate to go back to this well, as I’ve already examined the art of breaking of even, which seems to be all Mr. Glass cares about, but this is just getting ridiculous. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals are burning up the phone lines trying to trade Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen. Why the sudden urge to trade these two? To free up money so the team can acquire a (fingers crossed) better pitcher.

I’m not saying the Royals shouldn’t try to trade them. By all means…see if you can find a sucker.  But according the MLBTR report, David Glass told Bob Dutton of the KC Star that the team has to maintain a $70 million dollar payroll…to do what? Say it with me now…BREAK EVEN. This is the part where I get so mad I chuck the closest thing within reach across the room in frustration. Tonight, however, that thing is my cell phone – which I need – so, in an effort to save myself money, just visualize my cell phone shattering into a hundred pieces against the living room wall.

Don’t get me wrong. I like the basic thought process here…especially the part where the team rids itself of Hochevar. It’s that “break even” mantra that kills me. Glass just can’t keep running the team this way, and can’t keep reminding fans that’s all he cares about. We know. We get it. On behalf of every Royals fan out there, I’d like to quote Ben Affleck from Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back and ask, “When, Lord? When? When’s gonna be my time?”

And here’s the thing – we don’t HAVE to trade Hochevar. We can non-tender Luke, who is arbitration eligible and projected to have a salary in the $4.5-$5 million range, and be done with him. That’s easy money. My fear is that Moore and Glass won’t simply cut ties and let him walk. If you can’t trade him, fine. But either way, it’s time to let him go. It costs nothing to do so. In fact, you’ll actually MAKE money. Money you can use towards a pitcher and maybe stay closer to that break even line.

Does anyone else want Chen? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Chen is trickier, as he’s got a guaranteed contract for one more year. I’ve been resigned to the fact that he’ll be on the roster in 2013, so I don’t think it’s imperative to move him, but by all means, if some random GM would like Chen on his team – trade the guy. I applaud the effort.

Now I’ll touch on my second Christmas wish, which is for Moore to keep his wits about him and not do something stupid to save his job. Something like…I don’t know…make an awful trade that cripples the franchise, which, hilariously, would probably result in him eventually losing his job anyway. What a cruel twist of fate that would be for DM the GM.

The awful trade I refer to, of course, would be something along the lines of the latest rumors. You know the ones…Wil Myers either goes to the Red Sox for Jon Lester or to the Rays for James Shields. The thought of either trade made me feel like vomiting. Not that either guy is a bad pitcher (although Lester had an awful 2012)…but for Myers? No thanks. Giving up the best hitting prospect in all of baseball for someone who is solid, but not necessarily an ace…it doesn’t make sense, and it goes against that “process” Moore has been telling us about since he came to town.

Having a young player under control – and on the cheap – for the next several years is someone a team in BEM (break even mode) can’t afford to swap out for a player who costs much more, and is only under contract for two more seasons. Both Shields and Lester fit that description. Not only is that going against Moore’s process of building from within via the draft, it also goes directly against the owner’s philosophy. This is the type of deal that, most importantly, makes no baseball sense…but on top of that, makes a hypocrite of Moore. On the other hand…Myers for Matt Moore is something you’d have to think about. But that’s not the point here.

Guthrie at $5M means we have money to burn…Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I know we need pitching…believe me…I know. But here’s the thing – we’ve got to spend money. This is an ideal time for the team to go out and blow some cash on an ace type of pitcher. Yes, we just took on a large contract with Ervin Santana. And yes, we just signed Jeremy Guthrie for three years. But Guthrie’s contract is back-loaded, and Santana’s is a one-year commitment. For 2013, we owe Guthrie $5 million. That’s all. Go out and make a splash!

Not only does Guthrie’s contract structure make a high dollar signing more affordable for 2013, but Santana being gone makes it affordable in 2014. With a high dollar ace and Guthrie anchoring a 2014 rotation, and (hopefully) a couple of young – and CHEAP – pitchers stepping up and/or bouncing back from injury, spending money makes perfect sense.

If we can get the owner out of BEM, and into the mindset of not only winning, but giving the loyal fans something to really be proud of…and we can keep Dayton from shooting himself in the foot, this team will be on the fast track to respectability. Otherwise, to once again borrow from Mr. Affleck, fans are going to be stuck asking “When’s gonna be my time?” for the foreseeable future.

However with the Royals as we look ahead to 2013, there should be more questions asked about whether or not the offense can sustain any subtractions to its future, instead of just assuming that an acquisition of any pitcher will make this team better. Chances are, with subtractions from the offense (here’s looking at you, Wil Myers trade rumors), the Royals would have traded from one part of the team to another, and not amounted to much overall gain.

Somewhere during the last two months of the 2012 season and into the offseason, fans and pundits have decided the Royals offense was fixed and/or headed in the right direction. Some, you would think, have decided that it’s already arrived, thus resulting in a surplus of talent that needs to be traded in an effort to fix a starting rotation that has been laughably underdeveloped during the six years of Dayton Moore’s regime.

What’s so wrong about that? The offense isn’t good either.

In 2012 the Royals ranked 10^th in the American League in wOBA, and 9^th in OBP. If you want to be one of those people that say advanced stats are meaningless, then fine, the Royals finished 12^th in runs scored. Couple the Royals well documented inabilities (or blatant unwillingness to evolve with the rest of the industry) to take walks or show even average plate-discipline, along with their bad base running and questionable offensive game management, you get a team that struggles to score runs. Trading offensive talent – especially the talent that has more cost-controlled years available than any other piece of the “core” – may result in a zero sum. The type of impact pitcher needed to make a difference would cost too much of the current offensive roster (in terms of value to the organization) plus payroll dollars, not allowing those gaps created to be fixed.

Of course, at the center of all of this is the right field situation, where the incumbent was one of the worst every day players in baseball a season ago, and is blocking a better talent that happens to be center of trade speculation. In most other situations the idea of a blocked prospect used as trade bait to strengthen another unit of the team would be looked upon as good news, but in the case of Myers v Jeff Francoeur, the term “blocked” is more of an honorary term and not one of practicality.

Jeff Francoeur at this point in his career, with all we know of him as a player, should not be looked upon as an answer to any positional question, and serious discussions should be had over whether trading for any starting pitcher matters as long as Francoeur is still the every day right fielder. Because not only does his level of bad take away from whatever level of good the Royals would receive in a trade in terms of pure value from performance, there should also be very real concerns from within the organization about what it says when a well-known GM favorite continues to get a free pass when he continues to play so poorly.

The argument against trading Myers – or a few other Royals offensive pieces – isn’t just an argument that the difference between Myers and Francoeur would be greater than the difference between Pitcher Currently On Roster and Pitcher To Be Acquired, but that the Royals are operating as if they’re a team that has a surplus of talent. They don’t.

What they do have for 2013 – or at least what they did have before they spent $17MM for two back-of-the-rotation starters – was a surplus of money.

If the Royals were truly looking to make a “splash” this offseason by acquiring starting pitchers to make a run at the divisional title in 2013, then their window to do so was to spend in free agency on a front-loaded contract for a difference maker. Take advantage of the young, cheap talent while they could, while still also making an effort to compete.

What they did instead was trade for, and pick up a $12MM portion of an option on a lottery ticket that’s been getting worse for three years in Ervin Santana, and re-sign a 34-year contact reliant right-hander to three years guaranteed, in Jeremy Guthrie. It’s one thing to have the restraints of the market back you into a corner; it’s another to willingly back yourself into that corner by spending money recklessly. That corner, seemingly, is named Trade Wil Myers.

The case for keeping Wil Myers isn’t simply that it would keep from having to watch Francoeur swing a bat for another full season (though that would be compelling enough), it’s that a trade of an impact potential bat with six full years of cost-control left needs to be countered by real impact in return. With offensive holes in right field (if he’s traded), centerfield, second base, and legitimate question marks at first base and third base still left unanswered, the “window” for the Royals would close a little more by trading a piece that could help to answer some of those questions, than it would open by acquiring a single starting pitcher.

Just waiting for the phone to ring. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

By now, these rumors and reports are becoming commonplace. When looking at the Royals options this offseason, a trade has been basically understood as one avenue to get starting pitching help into the organization. Free agency can only go so far, and despite proclamations to the contrary, the Royals can’t envision a world where their payroll surpasses $80 million, or at least where it does so by fighting over players with other teams.

They traded for Ervin Santana, but he’s not the frontline type that can anchor the rotation. He’s more speculative than anything, and could just as easily collapse or get hurt rather than return to the form that had landed him on All-Star teams and Cy Young Award ballots. Jeremy Guthrie re-signed and should be a nice supplement, but, again, isn’t built to be the lead dog.

The Royals won’t sign Zack Greinke. Anibal Sanchez‘s demands are probably beyond what the Royals can match. The only way to get a top-notch pitcher to come to Kansas City is to give him no real choice of his own (via trade).

So when Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Wil Myers get brought up in trade rumors these days, it’s nothing new. The only thing that seems like it may have changed is that reports have shifted from “these players are available” and “we’ll listen about these players” to hints of actual inquiries where the names are dropped. Passan mentioned that sources have the Royals on the horn talking with Arizona, Seattle and Oakland. Most rumors have them  in one form or another talking with Tampa Bay (or showing interest). Atlanta has popped up as a possible trade partner as well.

At this point, I’m ready to start thinking about the player Kansas City would get in return for one of their hitters. I’m going off of the assumption that the Royals have already decided they’re making a move and it’s just a matter of time. They way where there’s smoke there’s fire, and there’s been a lot of smoke:

• September 21 – Buster Olney brings up David Price as pitcher who might be traded and brings up the Royals.
• September 24 – Bob Dutton of the Star suggested that if the Royals couldn’t find a pitcher on the free agent market, a trade may be necessary involving a cornerstone young player.
• October 10 – Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors covered the topic in his Royals Offseason Outlook.
• October 27 – Olney checks back in, focusing more on the major league players and not necessarily Myers, but by this point, it was common knowledge that the Royals were at least willing to listen to trade talks involving their hitters.
• October 27 – Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reported that the Royals were scouting left-handed prospect James Paxton of the Mariners and Alex Gordon’s name came up. Bob Dutton basically confirmed. I weighed in on the rumors swirling at the time.
• October 30 – The idea of offense for pitching would just create a new hole, said Kevin Scobee.
• November 15 – Ken Rosenthal brought Myers up again in regards to a potential Tampa Bay trade.
• November 18 – Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald said that some deal should work out between the Royals and Rays.

The smoke alarm has been going off for two months now, so much so that by the time the Winter Meetings come around, nobody should be surprised to see the Royals swapping a player (or two or three) for a big-name starter. It’s not called Hot Stove season for nothing.

How bad can he really be? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

There are rumors out there that teams are calling Dayton Moore regarding some bullpen arms, and that Moore is willing to trade an arm only if that team will take Frenchy as well. I’m not sure how likely that scenario is…but that’s the word. Of course this would be ideal as it would not only clear a nice chunk of payroll for Moore to allocate to more pressing areas of need (you know…like PITCHING) but it would also remove the roadblock in front of top prospect Wil Myers.

Of course, there are also rumors swirling that Moore is listening to offers on the impact bats, such as Myers, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon. Ideally…I’d like to see the Royals add pitching, remove Frenchy, and keep all those players I just mentioned. However, to receive a pitcher who’s proven they can pitch at the big league level, is still young and under team control for a few years, and a guy who could be an ace – it’s highly likely that someone like Myers would be the price, which leaves us with Frenchy as the right fielder for 2013.

I know it sounds bad. But with the potential upgrade to the rotation, how bad is it really, to be stuck with another year of Francoeur?

For his career, according to Fangraphs, he has accumulated a WAR of 10 over an eight-year career. That works out to him being a player with about a 1.3 WAR on average. Most of his career value was accumulated over the span of three seasons of course, putting up solid numbers of 3.8, 3.2, and 2.9 WAR. That last number most of you will remember well, as it came during his first year in KC, back in 2011.

With those three big years subtracted from the equation, Frenchy is a much less attractive player of course, but still not generally a guy who plays as terrible as the -1.2 WAR of 2012 suggests. He’s only had one other year of negative value, back in 2008, when he posted a -0.8 WAR and had similar numbers to 2012 when comparing OBP and SLG.

Looking over his career, Francoeur is not a great player, but has generally been a solid (yet unspectacular) player. He generally contributes at least some kind of positive value to his team. I’m not saying he’s a guy to get excited about. Not remotely. But he is a guy that should play better than what we witnessed in 2012. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll come out in 2013 and probably hit about .260 or so, with horrible plate discipline as usual, and maybe hit about 15 homers. Will he return to his 20/20 numbers of 2011? Hell no.  But I doubt he hits .230 either.

Matt Moore – worth the price of Myers? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Look, I’m not defending the guy. Well, maybe a little. The truth is, I’d like to see him gone just as much as 99.9% of the rest of you. But…if Dayton Moore is able to strike a deal with a team like Tampa…something like Wil Myers for Matt Moore…I mean, that’s hard to turn down, right? Moore is signed to a very team friendly contract and under control through 2019. He looks like a potential ace, which we desperately need in KC. Wouldn’t we have to bite the bullet and recognize maybe the team would be better off with a young ace and one more year of Frenchy?

A 2013 starting rotation led by Moore, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ervin Santana looks pretty good. Add in a guy like Luis Mendoza and maybe Bruce Chen until Jake Odorizzi proves he’s ready…that’s a pretty legitimate rotation. It’s good enough that we could squeeze Luke Hochevar completely out of the picture.

Yes, it would be tough to see a talent like Myers crushing the ball in another uniform. But he may be the only chip we have that can land a pitcher of Moore’s caliber. If fans want to see Moore pull of a trade for big time arm, it might be time to say goodbye to Myers. But in the right deal, it’s worth it. I mean…how bad can one more year of Frenchy really be?

Wil Myers – trade bait? Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE

Look at all these rumors, surrounding me everyday.

This is a fun time of year, but right now trying to separate fact from fiction is next to impossible. Don’t get me wrong, I love the speculation, and I’m as guilty as anyone of coming up with off the wall trade scenarios, but I’m not sure there is much meat on the bones being thrown by the various reporters and sites like MLBTR.

Right now, the popular stories regarding the Royals seem to include the Mariners, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles…and probably some other teams I’ve forgotten over the last couple of weeks.

The Mariners have a pitching heavy system, while the Royals obviously have more young hitters, making these teams seem like a perfect fit. Of course, with the caliber of some Mariners pitching prospects, they are probably locked in on a guy like Wil Myers. Will Dayton Moore go that route? Are the fans okay with a move like that? Time will tell. Personally…even though we need pitching, I think an everyday player like Myers is worth more than a highly rated pitching prospect. Too many things can go wrong with a pitcher, and an everyday player will contribute…well…everyday.

The Orioles have apparently inquired about Silver Slugger winner Billy Butler. I’m not sure what they would offer for a DH…and not sold that what they would offer would be enough. Butler is a great hitter, no doubt. But he’s not great at much else. I’m not knocking the guy…every lineup needs great hitters. That said, I’m just not sure what kind of value a DH, who won’t contribute in the field, has on the trade market. I think he’s a guy the Royals might get more value out of by keeping him right where he is.

The Diamondbacks are an interesting addition to the rumor mill. They are apparently fielding offers on right fielder Justin Upton. The Royals are in dire need of pitching. Not really a fit, is it? Then again…the hot rumor is that KC would send Mike Moustakas as part of a deal for Upton. That leaves a hole at third base…unless…Wil Myers, third baseman? Myers played some third base in Omaha in 2012, and by all accounts, was very good. The word from around the league is that Myers could play third in the big leagues. In this scenario, KC would likely try Myers at third, stick Upton in right, and roll with Jeff Francoeur as a reserve player, which is where he belongs anyway (since we’re likely stuck with him).

The question when analyzing a trade like one for Upton is: Are you okay with KC using its resources to pick up another bat? Or are you strictly interested in pitching?

Personally, I’m up for any improvements. Pitching, though, is what’s been killing this team for several years now. I’m most interested in solving that part of the equation. If I’m the GM, that’s my priority, while deals like the rumored Upton scenario would take a back seat.

David Price and James Shields – Tampa trade targets. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Given that pitching is such a need, I’d think the ideal trade partners this off-season would be the Mariners or someone like Tampa, who is always looking to shed payroll and has some interesting trade targets like James Shields. Of course, if you want to dream big, they also have newly crowned AL Cy Young winner David Price. I’m not sure Dayton Moore, or most fans for that matter, could stomach the cost involved on a guy like Price, even if it might be what this team needs to get on track.

I know this much – if KC is going to make a real attempt to improve the rotation – they have to give something of value to receive something big. What we give up might sting a bit…but this team, at some point, needs game changers on the mound. The question is, will this regime have the guts to move someone like Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Moose, Myers, or Butler to make it happen? After the big Toronto and Miami swap…I’m anxious to see if any rumors become reality.

And why not? Factoring in playing time (600 minimum plate appearances) you can make a very credible argument he just put up the worst season in team history. Others have put up poorer numbers for sure, Angel Salazar and Tony Pena Jr come quickly to mind, but they weren’t allowed to continue playing every day, and that’s really the difference between a bad year and a historically awful year. For reasons known only to himself, Ned Yost sent Frenchy to the plate 603 times in 2012. And how did Frenchy reward Yost’s misguided loyalty?

By doing this:

…and this:

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) walks back to dugout after striking out during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

going to be dealt in the off season for pitching, and hey, somebody had to play right field. I would have preferred one year but I kind of understood Moore’s motivation. Or at least I thought I did. As you know, Myers wasn’t dealt, and was several kinds of awesome this year.

Reasons to keep Myers down ranged from he needed to work on his defense to he needed to cut down on his strikeouts, and my favorite, he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. Whatever. The first two may have been legit but the third one was just noise and wasn’t offered up as an excuse until late in the season.

I found Moore’s comments about not wanting to block young pitchers in 2014 amusing since Frenchy’s contract did exactly that to Myers. If Myers does get traded (Trevor Bauer, anyone?) this winter I think 600 plate appearances for Frenchy next season is an easy prediction to make. Which means with no one to push him for playing time, and his successor no longer in the organization, another contract extension is likely coming.

Major League Baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement made a slight change to the rule about classifying players for Super Two status. To review, teams retain control of a player for six years of service time, but can play with callup times to get most of seven seasons out of a player (since one year in the CBA is considered to be 172 days and the MLB season usually runs about 180 or so). In order to prevent teams from taking advantage of this extra season, players with more than two years of service time but less than three can be considered eligible for Super Two status (and thus earn an extra year of arbitration, for a total of four), if they rank in the top 22% of those players in the 2-3 year category (previously, 17% was the mark).

May 31, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Blake Wood (38) delivers a pitch in the ninth inning as the Royals defeat the Los Angeles Angels 7-3 at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

In other words, Blake Wood debuted on May 12, 2010 and accumulated two years and 145 days of service time. According to an Associate Press story, the new cutoff for Super Two status in 2012 is two years and 139 days, so Wood qualifies under the new system.

Wood is currently starting a rehab program after Tommy John surgery in the middle of 2012 and made only four appearances in spring training before being shut down. MLBTradeRumors.com projects his 2013 salary at $600,000, a $98,000 raise.

More interesting, though, is how the Super Two number turned out in the new system. Under the old CBA, players with two years and 144 days of service time would have been eligible for Super Two status. Five days was the only difference.

There was much discussion about the potential of calling up Wil Myers in 2012 and a big part of the discussion was that the Royals were waiting and waiting to avoid Super Two status. With the first run of the new Super Two rules out of the way, it throws that narrative away. Many thought he would be called up in August with the idea that calling him up any time sooner would put him in the Super Two category. Really, it would have been a difference of a week.

Granted, it’s difficult to project where the cutoff will be. The number of days in a baseball season is different almost every year, and since the Super Two is calculated by a group of players that will vary from year to year, it’s relative to that group instead of a standard cutoff. Basically, until that group of players is getting to the end of that third season, it’s just tough to tell who’ll land in that top 22%. Some players might look like they’re on the way to Super Two status, but then they get sent down and it keeps them out instead.

What we can look at now is who might end up eligible in the future. In 2011, Eric Hosmer accumulated 145 days of service time. In 2012, he accumulated 180 for a total of one year 153 days. The 2013 season will last 182 days from March 31 to September 29, so Hosmer should land around two years and 163 days after next season. He’ll definitely qualify for Super Two status (assuming he turns it around and doesn’t get sent to Triple A). Danny Duffy debuted on May 18, 2011 and accumulated 134 days of service time (though I think that should be revised to 123 since he was optioned to Triple A over the All-Star break in 2011). He could be right at the cutoff. Mike Moustakas had 111 days of service time after 2011. He should fall short.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

That factors into the Royals outlook for the future, as they can prepare for Hosmer having four years of arbitration, but Moustakas only having three.

If we want to predict a potential Wil Myers call up date in 2013 that would avoid Super Two status, we can give that a shot. The Royals could wait eleven days to call him up and get a full six seasons on top of the rest of 2013 from him. That timeframe would end up with him solidly in Super Two territory. To avoid that, the Royals would probably have to wait around 65 days to bring him up giving him 117 days of service time in 2013, plus around 180 days in 2014 and another 180 in 2015. It depends on the MLB schedule but that kind of plan could give Myers about two years and 133 days of service time (estimated), which would have kept him out of the danger zone by this year’s results.

That would mean a callup around June 4.

There’s no conclusive way to calculate, but that’s at least a guess.

The rules stipulated that if you won your league during the regular season you had to move up and play in the post season tournament for the next higher division, in this case, the “C” league.  Conversely, if your team finished last, you dropped to the next lower league’s tournament.  And wouldn’t you know it, my “D” league team ended up playing in the championship game for the “C” league against the team that had come in last place in the “B” league.  Makes your head spin a little bit, doesn’t it?

I know you’re dying to learn the result of the Championship game, aren’t you?  We won.  The best team in the “D” league handily defeated the worst team in the “B” league, while all the “C” teams sat on the sidelines during their own league Championship game.

During the regular season I knew our softball team was good, but I had no idea just how good we were.  How could I?  We were never really challenged and we weren’t allowed to live up to our potential until the post season tournament.  We were just a “D” team after all, and we thought that surely every “C” and “B” team was much better than us.  Well, we were wrong.

Wil Myers is the best player in the minor leagues according to Baseball America. (Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE)

Ever heard of a guy named Wil Myers?  He plays a variety of outfield positions in the Royals minor league system.  He also played catcher a couple of years ago too, but surrendered this position to make room for the rocket-armed Salvador Perez, but that’s another story.  Except that it’s proof he’s willing to do whatever the Royals ask him to do, anything necessary to put himself in a position to move up to the majors.  He batted .314 this season with an impressive 37 home runs and 109 RBIs in only 134 games.  Baseball America just ranked him as the 3^rd best prospect in the entire minor leagues, and oh by the way – Baseball America also named Wil as their Minor League Player of the Year for 2012.

Beginning with his head turning performance in the Arizona Fall League a year ago, Myers has been on a tear that has captured the attention of baseball prognosticators nationwide who are all drooling over his potential.  For a somewhat scrawny looking 6’5”, 205 lb bean pole, Wil’s homerun prowess is prolific.  At the ripe old age of 21, just four other players have hit 36 or more home runs in a minor league season over the past 30 years.  Their names are Wil Myers (37), Paul Konerko (37), Jose Canseco (36), and – drum roll please – Mike Moustakas (36).

Paul Konerko has 400+ home runs in his career, over a hundred more than any Royal ever, and at 37 years old he’s still batting over .300 and proving he has many miles left on his talented bat.  Jose Canseco has turned into a bit of a joke recently with his weird Twitter rants and embarrassing desire to renew his baseball career at 48 years of age, but back in the day, this half of the Bash Brothers could swing the wood.  Jose retired in 2001 with 462 career home runs.  I believe this puts Wil Myers in pretty good company and speaks volumes about his potential in the major leagues.

Now, let’s talk about Jeff Francoeur for a moment.  If you’ve been paying attention to the Royals this year, you know that Frenchy has a great arm, and a talented, ummm, well, let’s see…  I’ll take the politically correct route and just say he hasn’t performed up to expectations this season.

Jeff Francoeur (Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE)

Jeff has been hovering about 30 or 40 notches above the Mendoza line for most of the year, he’s hit 13 home runs and driven in 41.  Let me say that again – he’s our Right Fielder, one of the corner positions where the team should expect to derive most of its power, and he’s driven in a pathetic 41 runs.  He leads the team in strikeouts per plate appearance, he doesn’t walk much, doesn’t steal many bases, and he covers the outfield like a mule that’s been weighted down with a prospector’s once-in-a-lifetime gold strike.

According to Baseball America’s WAR stat (Wins Against Replacement), Francoeur is having one of the worst seasons in the history of professional baseball.  At least he isn’t burdening the Royals with a huge payroll number.  Oops – he’s earning $6,000,000 this year for taking up valuable space on our roster.  Yes, that’s a 6 with six zeros.  And the Royals are contracted to pay him a whopping $7.5 million next season.  Can you say “it’s good to be Dayton Moore’s buddy”?

Yes I love Frenchy’s smile, his great attitude, and his team mentality.  But at some point (and I reached this point many months ago), you want to win more than you want to root for the nice guy to pull out of his long, lingering, mind-numbing slump.

The concept of watching your team field a historically inept player day-in and day-out, would be almost understandable if there were no other options.  But wait – don’t the Royals have that Wil Myers guy down in Omaha, leading his team to another PCL Championship Series last week?  The concept becomes inexplicable when you see the big picture and learn that not only do the Royals have a replacement option for the worst player in the majors, but the replacement just happens to be the very best player in the minors!

So, what would you do?  Or rather, what would have done a few months ago when this best player vs the worst player scenario became obvious?  Would you let Wil Myers pound away on inferior minor league pitching and chase a few more fly balls in the outfield to further perfect his craft?  Or, would you bench Frenchy and write Myers name on the Royals lineup card to give him a taste of what is to come next year when he surely, hopefully, we all pray will be playing Right Field for the Royals?  I know what I would do.  I didn’t even need to think twice about it.

Jake Odorizzi and Adam Moore (Photo: Minda Haas)

All but Odorizzi had previously been added to the 40 man roster. The Royals purchased Odorizzi’s contract in order to promote him. He was required to be added at some point this winter anyway in order to avoid the Rule 5 draft.

Absent on this list is Wil Myers, the Minor League Player of the Year. This was expected. Myers doesn’t need to be protected to avoid selection by other teams in the Rule 5 draft and the Royals have multiple players they want to add in the offseason to protect. Robert Ford reported that the Royals have told him they want to protect 10-12 players but have only 3-5 spots with which to do it. Sam Mellinger predicts he’ll be called up in April next year after he’s waited long enough to gain the Royals an extra year of service time. That’s usually about a two week wait.

The plan with Odorizzi is to use him out of the bullpen for now, but there’s an idea to start him against Cleveland next weekend.

In 25 starts (and a 26th game where he’d thrown 6.2 innings after a two inning start by Everett Teaford) between Omaha and Northwest Arkansas, Odorizzi threw 145.1 innings, striking out 135 batters and walking 50 with an ERA of 3.03. He’d also pitched twice in the PCL playoffs, accumulating another 10.2 innings and 10 strikeouts, though he had an awful game in Reno, giving up eight earned runs and four homers.

The Royals have already seen Adcock, Hottovy and Falu. The new guy in town is Adam Moore, who made his major league debut with the Mariners in 2009 and has a career .526 OPS. They’ll play him here and there to get a look at him. Manny Pina is already up and has yet to make it into a game. Adcock had 30.1 innings in ten games in Kansas City for a 2.67 ERA. He made two starts. Hottovy worked out of the bullpen, getting in 6.2 innings and giving up three earned runs. Falu was impressive in his time in the big leagues. The longtime organizational soldier hit .321/.333/.434 in 56 plate appearances with most coming in May.

Four players on the 40 man roster who could be called up, but weren’t today, are Clint Robinson and Ryan Verdugo, who had brief stints in the big leagues earlier this year and Derrick Robinson and Noel Arguelles who haven’t made major league debuts yet. Verdugo and the Robinsons could still make their way up, but Arguelles had a 6.41 ERA in Double A so he would be a shocker to see any time this year. He’s on the 40 man due to signing a major league contract when he defected from Cuba.

The Odorizzi promotion leaves the Royals with 39 spots on their 40 man roster.

Those four are:

• Wil Myers (4th overall)
• Bubba Starling (22nd)
• Jake Odorizzi (32nd)
• Kyle Zimmer (69th)

There’s a chance that by the start of next season, Myers could be the top ranked prospect according to many, as Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado – first and third overall respectively – have already been called up to the majors. The number two overall prospect, Dylan Bundy, could get called up at some point this year as well (though it’s less likely the later into the year we get).

Regardless, Myers had a strong season and deserves his spot in the rankings. He’s already picked up multiple accolades for his big 2012 production.

Starling’s first professional season has to be considered a success, even despite a heartbreaking loss in the Appalachian League Championship. There were concerns that he wouldn’t adjust to the pro game well, but he showed a lot of power and speed and hit well enough at the rookie level. He’s still refining his game and hoping to avoid strikeouts with his current frequency (30.2%) of the time, but at least he was able to work walks as well (12.1%).

Zimmer also had a good first season as a pro after signing shortly after the Royals drafted him. He started nine games between Arizona and Kane County before being shut down for minor elbow surgery. Odorizzi is in Omaha with Myers as they attempt to defend their Pacific Coast League championship. After a 2.93 ERA in Triple A over 107.1 innings in 2012, he’s put himself into position for a rotation spot out of spring training next season.

I get it. Kind of. I understand where Dayton Moore is coming from with the 40 man roster issues, and how

Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE

we’d have to pull someone off to place Myers on. But seriously…come on…we get to watch guys like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper playing for their respective teams to varying degrees of success…but at least they are getting their shot (I don’t think there’s any arguing that Trout is more than ready).

Looking at those two as a jumping off point, I don’t think anyone would expect Myers to have hit the ground running like Trout. The Angels superstar is a freak like we haven’t seen since 1989, when Seattle fans were getting fat on Ken Griffey, Jr. candy bars. Although, looking back, Griffey’s first year was more in line with Harper’s 2012 campaign.

What could we possibly expect from Myers? Is he ready to hit at this level? Does he have things to work on that warrant keeping him in Omaha, or is this whole thing just a team afraid to make a roster move and take a chance…keeping Myers in AAA to stop his big league service clock from ticking?

One way to glimpse what might have been is to project what Myers’ numbers would translate to using Minor League Equivalency numbers. I know…you’re thinking, “I was told there would be no math.” I’ll keep it pretty simple. These MLE projections have been around a while now, with Bill James being the first person I remember coming up with the idea. In fact, I still have a couple of my old Bill James Baseball Abstracts laying around, and in the 1986 version, he calls it “Major League Equivalency” in the glossary.

The formula has been improved upon a great deal over the years, although once again, James was ahead of his time. But as we moved into the information age and more data was collected, as Baseball Think Factory explains in depth, we had more information at our disposal. Having more factors to throw into the mix enables us to come up with (theoretically) more accurate projections.

With the help of a MLE calculator, I’m going to plug in Myers’ AAA numbers from this season and see how they translate (not adding in his AA stats).

With the Storm Chasers, Myers has put up impressive numbers, as we all know. In his 388 at bats (through Sept. 4) he has 15 doubles, 5 triples, and 24 homers, adding up to a .554 slugging percent. In addition, he’s got a .304 AVG and .378 OBP, all amounting to an impressive .932 OPS. I don’t need to talk these numbers up…the guy won top honors from Baseball America. Enough said.

Let’s plug these numbers into the calculator and see what it spits out. What we find is that he projects, had he played that time in Kansas City, to have 399 at bats, 104 hits, 13 doubles, 4 triples, and 19 homers. That comes out to a batting average of .261 and a .318 OBP (a drop of 60 points). His power stroke translates pretty well, with a .453 projected SLG. It’s 100 points lower, but for a young player, very good. This means of course that his OPS will also be lower, coming down from a .932 to a less impressive .771 in the big leagues – still a solid number, especially for a 21 year old.

Judging solely by this idea of MLE it appears Myers would be more in line with a rookie season like that of Harper or Griffey. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. That .771 OPS he’s projected at would be fourth best on the team behind Billy Butler, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon. Not to mention about 130 points higher than the albatross he’d replace in right field.

Keep in mind, these MLE numbers don’t project what a player will do once they get the call from their parent team. It simply takes the numbers they actually DID put up, and translates them using park factors, etc. It doesn’t factor in a player’s confidence or hot streaks, nor does it figure in a prolonged slump. For all we know, Myers could have come up after the All Star break and hit .315 for the Royals. Then again, he could’ve hit .220, as we saw Trout do in 2011 through 40 games.

Which brings me to another point. Should Myers get the call now, get his feet wet, in case he does struggle like Trout? Maybe. Maybe not. There are plenty of guys who start a season with no prior experience and do just fine. We likely won’t find out. And while it’s nice to see guys like David Lough get a shot, he’s clearly not a player on the level of Wil Myers.

Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE

It’s hard to say what would have happened had KC cleared some room for Myers. But he couldn’t have been much worse than Frenchy, and likely would have been better. In comparison to the rookies I mentioned before, Myers certainly wouldn’t have put up Trout-like numbers (I wouldn’t bet on it anyway), but I’m guessing could have been for KC what Harper was for the Nationals.

Hopefully we’ll find out soon enough…with headlines like “Wil Power” floating around it’s only making a hungry fan base more anxious to see Myers make a splash.

Congrats on a heck of a 2012, Wil. Hope to see you on Opening Day.

Then, this afternoon, USA Today named Myers the recipient of their award as well.

Ho hum. More awards. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Not to be outdone, Myers was also selected as Pert Plus’s minor leaguer with the brightest future (along with Seattle pitching prospect Danny Hultzen). He’s also been named the Royals Triple A Player of the Year by the organization and was a member of the Pacific Coast League and a standout in the All-Star Futures Game.

That’s an awful lot of resume padding. Those awards come his way for a good reason. In 134 games split among Double A and Triple A, Myers hit 37 homers and put up a .314/.387/.600 line in 591 plate appearances. The home run mark is the most since Kila Ka’aihue hit 37 in 2008.

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America detailed some of the adjustments Myers made this season to be more of a middle order hitter, notably a more upright stance for more backspin on the ball and more aggression at the plate. Even with those changes and with more strikeouts, Myers still hit .300 at both levels and made other adjustments as the season went on.

Despite his success, the Royals have been patient and aren’t likely to promote him this season. It’s been pointed out that the Royals took a similar approach to Mike Moustakas when he was crushing the ball in 2010. At that time, Moustakas, like Myers now, wasn’t on the 40 man roster, but didn’t need to be added to be protected from the winter’s Rule 5 draft. There’s not much point to bringing Myers up now to get a handful of games – if there was a time to do it, it would have been in mid-June or shortly after the All-Star break when he’d be less likely to qualify for Super Two status. With Jeff Francoeur struggling most of the season, many Royals fans questioned the decision to keep him in the minors.

So what do all of these awards mean?

Not much, really, but they have historically gone to players who later had success in the big leagues. Tom Gordon and Alex Gordon are the only other Royals to be named Baseball America’s minor league Player of the Year and both have gone on to have good careers (or at least, Alex looks like he should be headed that way after early struggles). Myers is also the first Royal to win both the USA Today honor and the Baseball America award and 7th overall to do so.

If past winners are any indication, Myers is in good company. Past BA winners include Derek Jeter, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Paul Konerko, Joe Mauer and Mike Trout (among others). In the history of the award, nearly every player has gone on to have at least a productive major league career, if not an excellent one. Rocco Baldelli won the award in 2002 and looked like a budding star, but injuries and illness forced him to retire at age 29.

It’s still on Myers to succeed. Just being on an impressive list of award winners does nothing. He should* get his shot early in 2013 to show how he adjusts to the big leagues.

*I say “should” because, well, who knows with the Royals…

What’s most puzzling about the move isn’t so much that Lough is seeing playing time in the Major Leagues – he’s probably better than Jeff Francouer at this point anyway – it’s that he’s seeing playing time ahead of Wil Myers, the Baseball America Minor League Player Of The Year. And, he’s batting leadoff instead of Alex Gordon.

Normally the latter fact shouldn’t concern a soul, but that is until Ned Yost unleashed a gem of a comment courtesy of this story on Royals.com:

“It’s not perfect. If I had a leadoff hitter, he wouldn’t be hitting leadoff. It’s just a spot where he kind of fits right now,” Yost said.

Read that back one more time and try not to cough up some Kool-Aid. The “he” Yost was referring to was Lough who had a .317 on-base percentage this season in Triple-A. The neon-colored elephant in the room wearing bells around its neck singing “Hello My Baby” like Michigan J. Frog Yost was referring to when he said “if I had a leadoff hitter…” is Alex Gordon.

The argument for Gordon staying as the leadoff hitter of an offense that struggles to score runs is compelling. The argument against Gordon staying as the leadoff hitter is flimsy. The argument that the Royals don’t currently have a leadoff hitter on their roster is insanity.

It’s one thing to send mixed signals to your franchise’s best prospect who is tearing apart the minor leagues the same way the two chosen ones did, and you pass him up for a promotion for some contrived Rule V, 40-man roster reason. It’s another to stick your head completely in the sand to having Gordon’s .360+ on-base percentage getting as many at-bats as possible in a lineup that shows no regard for the value of outs.

But, I guess that’s exactly why Gordon isn’t batting leadoff.

Some names aren’t mentioned very often. Some are the first you’d think of among Royals farmhands.

In Omaha, Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi were named Player and Pitcher of the Year, respectively, to nobody’s surprise. Both await their callups – though they may be waiting until next season.

The Royals first pick in 2010, Christian Colon, won Player of the Year for Northwest Arkansas following up on a disappointing 2011. He spent some time on the disabled list at Double A, and again after being promoted to Triple A after fouling a pitch off that came back and hit him in the face. He’d hit .301/.376/.413 across all levels.

Michael Mariot, who was recently promoted to Triple A, was named the Pitcher of the Year at for the Naturals. He’s a right-handed pitcher who the Royals took in the 8th round in 2010 and has consistent numbers since joining the organization. He threw 113.2 innings in Double A this year with an ERA of 3.40 with a 1.240 WHIP.

Yordano Ventura is a rising prospect in the system. After striking out 98 batters in 76.1 innings for Wilmington and accumulating a 3.40 ERA, he was promoted to Double A, where he’s been since mid-July. He’s the High A level’s Pitcher of the Year, though a case could be made for Jason Adam (3.61 in 152 IP), though he wasn’t as dominant as Ventura.

Whit Merrifield, who was recently tabbed as one of the Royals Fall League players, is the Blue Rocks Player of the Year.

At Kane County, Angel Baez put up a 3.17 ERA in 96.2 innings. He’s a tall righty from the Dominican Republic who signed in 2008. He’s also the Cougars Pitcher of the Year. You can check out a scouting report here.

One of the prospects expected to break out this year, Jorge Bonifacio followed up winning Player of the Year in the Dominican Summer League in 2010 and last year’s Burlington Player of the Year. He hit .282/.336/.432 as a 19-year-old outfielder. Along with that, he hit ten homers, 20 doubles and six triples in 448 plate appearances. He’s an easy top ten prospect next year.

A couple of 2012 draftees earned the Idaho Falls Chukars distinctions. Ethan Chapman is the Player of the Year after a .313/.384/.409 line in 62 games in the short season league. The Royals second round pick, Sam Selman, ran away with the Pitcher of the Year honor. In all 12 appearances, the lefty has struck out more batters than innings pitched, totalling 84 in 55.1 innings since turning pro. He has a 2.11 ERA and is sure to be put at a more challenging level next season.

Colin Rodgers was the Royals third round pick in 2012. He’s also Burlington’s Pitcher of the Year as an 18-year-old after a 2.05 ERA in 48.1 innings. He didn’t strike out a lot (4.7 K/9) but batters couldn’t make good contact off of him (.226 batting average against).

Bubba Starling was the Player of the Year for Burlington after a promising first pro season. He had 10 homers in 53 games and finished the regular season with a .275/.371/.485 line and a big reason why the B-Town Bomb Squad is playing for the Appalachian League championship.

The Surprise (AZ) Royals named Matt Tenuta the Pitcher of the Year. He’s a 25th round pick from this year’s draft who didn’t have amazing numbers, but he only allowed one homer in 39.1 innings pitched. The AZL Royals also named Alexis Rivera the Player of the Year. He turned 18 in June, then went and hit .341/.413/.477 in his first pro league over 206 plate appearances. He’s 6’2″ and 225 pounds and could be an impact prospect in a couple of seasons.

Finally, the Dominican League’s Pitcher of the Year was Miguel Almonte, who was dominant over 50 innings of work, striking out 46 batters and walking only eight in the DSL. He threw another 27 innings and struck out 28, walking just five. Overall, he had a 1.75 ERA after both levels, with a 74/13 K/BB ratio.

The Player of the Year is Wander Franco, who won’t even be 18 years old until December. In 66 games, he drove in 38 runs, scored 44 of his own and had 21 extra base hits.

Some names are familiar, and some you may just be learning, but there were some impressive performances over the minor league season across all levels of the organization. Most of these players will be moved up a level next season. Some will move higher on prospect rankings, and hopefully, the strong performance continues. Selman could use a challenge, as he outmatched the Pioneer League. Bonifacio was a trendy breakout pick last year and didn’t disappoint. Rodgers jumped right into pro ball out of high school and had no problems at all.

April 10, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) loses his bat during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Late August is the hardest time to be a Royals fan. They’re out of any type of race other than a race for top draft picks in 2013.

They’re not calling up any young prospects of the future for at least a few days and maybe not even then. They’re stuck in this state of mediocre baseball and near hopelessness.

By now, we pretty clearly have a sense of who the 2012 Royals are: an extremely inconsistent team with players still learning what it takes to be successful at the major league level. Eric Hosmer has disappointed to a level I’ve never seen before when we consider expectations (granted I’m only 26). Mike Moustakas has been decent but not jaw dropping. He continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, and watching him swing and miss at the same pitches over and over again makes me want to throw objects at a television … my television to be specific.

I point to Hosmer and Moustakas only because they are the poster children for this new wave of talent meant to push the Royals back to prominence. But of course they are not the sole holders of blame. Starting pitching has been terrible (as most thought it would be). Jeff Francoeur has been atrocious (as many thought he probably would be). And some of the moves made by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore have been awful (as anyone with brain cells knew they would be).

Now, we’re stuck in this purgatory, a holding pattern, and it feels like eating plain bread. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Wil Myers. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Jake Odorizzi. Right now, all we have are dreams of the future, and those dreams are opaque at best.

That’s why I hate late August for the Royals. When we get to September, we can at least sink into the warm delusion of our strong Septembers. Last season the Royals went 15-10 with what many considered to be a glimpse into their lineup of the future. Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Hosmer, and Moustakas were all in the majors, and the Royals started winning. Fans could then delude themselves into thinking that this was proof of future success. I want that delusion to get here already. Much like in the movie Inception, I need the dream world because it’s much better than the real world (or something like that … I don’t know that movie was super confusing).

The only pieces of the puzzle left are Myers, Odorizzi, and a pitcher to be named. Maybe that pitcher will be John Lamb or Yordano Ventura or Kyle Smith or Kyle Zimmer. Who knows? Maybe it will be a free agent (I doubt it). But for now, we’re left only to stew in this place of wonderlessness.

You see, wonder is what drives the passion of Royals fans. We wonder what the future will bring (I’m using “wonder” as a double entendre). We look at our future with a sense of wonder. We look at players like Myers and Odorizzi with a sense of wonder. It’s what keeps us going as fans. If we can’t wonder, morale drops like Francoeur’s batting average after facing a righty for one game.

The wonder is off both Hosmer and Moustakas. I’m not saying they won’t be great players. They might be, and if they do become great players it will be wonderful. But it won’t be the same thing we feel when everything is possibility, as it is with Myers and Odorizzi, as it is with next season.

I need September to get here. I need to see the future Royals so I can replace the sense of stuckness I feel now with a sense of wonder.

Over the last few days, Myers as been playing at third base, rather than his typical center field. This is after moving him from right field to center, which only followed after moving him from catcher to the outfield.

Wil Myers at third base. (Photo: Minda Haas)

The musical chairs act hasn’t affected his hitting, but it seemed like 2012 would be a year where the Royals could tolerate any passable defense in right field so long as Myers was hitting. He’s hit. There have been some rough patches, but his overall line is strong. He can take a walk. He hits for power. He’s struck out more this season but he’s still around a .300 batting average and the tradeoff is more power numbers.

Sure, versatility isn’t a bad thing and you never know when he may be called to play third base at some point in an emergency situation, but according to Robert Ford of 610 Sports, the Royals feel that third base is Myers’s strongest position.

This raises a few questions. First, if they felt third base is his best position, what led them to that conclusion? The handful of innings in June at the position? Pre-game fungo sessions? Why not start him at third base once he shed the catching gear with the option of the outfield ready if the experiment failed?

It smacks of moving a player around for the sake of moving a player around, to me.

Wil Myers was stuck in the minors to learn the outfield and get comfortable, with an eye towards moving into right field. He’s blocked by the Jeff Francoeur contract for the rest of this season and despite showing that he was worthy of a look at the big league level as early as June, it’s almost September and he’s probably not going to be called up to the majors this season.

I’ll guess that the Royals will keep him in Omaha to let him win the Pacific Coast League with his team. Then I’ll guess that they’ll suggest that he’s not ready at third and want him to get more work there and they have Mike Moustakas there too, so they can’t bring him up to start 2013. Most likely, that’s the game the service time clock, which isn’t an awful idea in theory, but it’s counter to every statement the Royals have made that they want to win now and have the best players up and want to bring young players up when they’ve shown they’re ready. They seem fully prepared to let Myers just stay there.

Eric Hosmer came up after a month of Triple A. Moustakas spent about a year there. Danny Duffy was up after two Omaha months. Did the philosophy change, or is the target moving around again? If they’re concerned about the struggles of Hosmer and Moustakas, well say that. Say “we brought some players up we thought were ready and they’ve done well but we may want to take another track this time.” Good enough for me. Don’t keep switching positions and sitting on veterans and tell me the .300 hitter who leads the minors in homers isn’t ready to hit at this level.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Myers is ready. He could play a reasonable right field in the majors. Or, at least, he can be as good riight now as Francoeur has been. This year, Francoeur hasn’t shown good range and while his arm is still potent, it’s not as valuable as it was last season, according to FanGraphs. It might make it to that level by season’s end, but even with the arm, his range is so bad he still struggles to keep up. Also, his arm is only good for anything if he can get to the ball. Surely Myers could make the same plays Francoeur has and probably make plays he hasn’t.

Ford suggests that Myers could be an option to spell Moustakas at third on days against left-handed pitching. That could be an option and you’d want to have the player ready for that scenario, but why now? He’s never played third (and it shows, according to Lee Warren and Minda Haas), and now a month and a half in Triple A will be enough time to plug him in there, yet a year in right field (a less demanding defensive position on the defensive spectrum) isn’t enough time to try him while he’s mashing the ball?

I don’t get it.

Sure, there are roster logistics at play. Myers would have to be added to the 40 man roster, but with a week left before September, does Francisley Bueno need his spot? Is Adam Moore a priority? Are Jason Bourgeois and Ryan Verdugo and Tommy Hottovy vital to this organization? Chris Getz is right there, ready to be put on the 60 day disabled list, too. There are ways to make it work.

But maybe I’m looking for a conspiracy where none exists. Maybe I’m so conditioned by curious decision making by this organization that it’s jaded me to the point that it all starts to feel arbitrary. If so, I’ll accept that charge.

Moustakas is showing signs that he could be a supreme defensive third baseman and can also be a force at the plate for extended stretches. Myers isn’t going to replace him defensively.

I mean, if I’m overreacting, please tell me. At this point, the Royals have said that they felt they had enough pitching, then had to call on Ryan Verdugo, Vin Mazzaro, Nathan Adcock and others in Spot Start Roulette after injuries mowed down Duffy and Felipe Paulino. They’ve sent Alex Gordon and Billy Butler down after struggles in the not-so-distant past, but Eric Hosmer was left to swipe at the low and away pitch all summer. They made a point to see what Jarrod Dyson could do in center, but haven’t afforded the same opportunity to Johnny Giavotella while letting Yuniesky Betancourt play the majority of the time at second until his release.

Now, the new narrative may turn out to be “We want to see more of Wil at third and evaluate where that fits our ballclub.”

The best case for Myers is to play right field. Every day. I’ll concede the occasional start in center to give someone a rest (thought I don’t know that he’ll be a fit for the duties of center over long stretches). If he can play third base well enough to be thought of as someone who might spell Moustakas once every other week, okay, fine, but conduct that test in Kansas City. My fear is that it’ll be too easy for the Royals to resist wasting more time.

Ignore for a second the needs of the starting rotation. However apparent the holes are with the current 5-man setup, and they are apparent, there are equal amounts of questions that are yet to be answered surrounding an organization that continues to employ a swing first, second, third, and ask questions later, offensive approach.  And because of that offensive strategy added to a base running philosophy akin to the little league team whose runner keeps circling the bases because he represents the last run allowed to score in the inning, no matter how good the starting pitching becomes it might still be overshadowed by an offense that works itself into outs in any way possible.

Despite being 6^th in all of baseball in batting average at .268, the Royals are just 22^nd in runs scored. Surely a lot of that run-scoring disparity is due to so many outs being recorded on the base paths, but it’s also in large part due to the team’s inability to reach base without putting a ball in play.

The Royals currently are 29^th in baseball in walks drawn with 302. Major League average at this point in the season is 367. The Royals are so bad at drawing walks that the same amount that separates them from the Los Angeles Angels at 24^th, is just four less than what separates the Angels from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 12^th.

The distance between the Royals and a slightly above average team in walks drawn is really inexplicable when you consider the easiest way for a small market team to compete is to avoid outs any way possible, with drawing walks being a central component of that, and they are once again one of the very worst at it in the game.

But because the Royals do hit for a high average as a team the offense is looked at as a strength. And positions of strength are usually where teams look towards to trade from when attempting to improve other areas. Well, the most attractive trade pieces currently on the Major League roster are most likely the only two that are most helping the team’s cause of non-out making: Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.

In one you have a great athlete that plays Gold Glove (however meaningful a Gold Glove is) level defense while accumulating 6.9 fWAR last year, and will knock on the door of 5 fWAR this year. In the other you have a 26-year-old that’s turning into one of the better hitters in baseball. Both are under contract and are inexpensive, and both would figure to bring back the most in return if flipped for talent elsewhere.

But would it be worth it?

There doesn’t figure to be much of a difference in the offensive lineup that’s currently being fielded from the one that will be written on the scorecard in 2013. And with rumors circulating more and more that it won’t be until May of next year before Wil Myers takes the place of Out King Jeff Francoeur, there really isn’t much of a reason to expect much of a difference in run scoring and walks drawn.

This is simply an organization that doesn’t value walks, and because of that, it will always be difficult for them to score runs.

However much of an impact it would make on the pitching staff to trade either Gordon or Butler, the net gain might not be worth it when coupled with the crippling loss it would be to the offense.

I advocated last week on the Royalman Report that the best strategy at this point would be to stand pat and hope some of the young pitchers take a step forward, while also seeing if some combination of Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, or even Joakim Soria can make an adjustment to the starting rotation. Would it be a gamble? Sure. But it’s one at this time the team can afford to make because the chance of any pitcher signing with Kansas City that’s distinguishably better than what is already in the rotation is slim.

The Royals are in need of a higher caliber starter than would be available for them in free agency, and possibly than would be better than available via trade. At this point, taking away from an offense that is already 40 runs below the American League average to make an insignificant upgrade over what is currently in the rotation, just wouldn’t be right.

There’s little chance any of the difference-making pitchers would sign with Kansas City. That’s just how it is. But unless there’s a real opportunity to sign one the next tier pitchers in free agency, there’s no sense in trading either Gordon or Butler for that guy.

The Good

Looking good, Billy Ray.

He’s been called overrated. He’s been called merely average. Some rather foggy-glassed fans have called him called a liability. What Billy Butler really is to the Kansas City Royals, is a remarkable rock of consistent and now, near elite level of production. (15^th in all of baseball in RC+) This season he’s no worse than the team’s second best hitter, and looking forward given the way things have gone this season, he would look to repeat that for at least the next few years.

As Butler’s power increases (homerun numbers anyway), his walk numbers would figure to do the same, even though they haven’t this season. And in a lineup and an organization that shows a complete disregard for outs of any manner on offense, having a batter that provides both categories in a lineup that’s rather void of either is invaluable.

The Bad

There’s an argument to be made for why Wil Myers has not, or is not playing baseball games in Kansas City. There is. I think. Maybe.

Whether it would be the 40-man crunch due to the Rule V draft in November, or the gaming of service time so Myers doesn’t hit free agency the year after Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are scheduled to, the reasons for keeping Myers in Omaha are flimsy at best.

The organization already showed its hand in calling up players “when they were ready”. Hosmer was brought up a month into a season of clear non-contention to burn service time because he was deemed ready. Moustakas was the same, as was Danny Duffy. The Royals have already proven that they’re willing to shirk the normal rules of service time and money to get players to the big leagues once they’ve proven they’re ready.

So why is it that Myers continues to hit, and hit well, in Triple-A while Jeff Francoeur continues to be one of the worst players in baseball?

There’s probably a very, very good reason why Myers is still not in Kansas City. The worry would be, however, that the precedent has already been set by the organization that is now changing their rules to accommodate a player they’re well known to love, that just isn’t that good.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Omaha outfielder David Lough courtesy of Minda Haas (Royal Blues)

Omaha blew out one of the worst teams in the Pacific Coast League (Tuscon), 20-3.  The Storm Chasers pounded out 33 hits (that is not a typo) and every starter had at least two hits. The game was over after the third inning when Omaha scored eight runs in the 2nd and seven more in the 3rd. Mitch Maier hit a two-run homerun in the 2nd inning. Wil Myers hit a three-run homerun and David Lough hit a two-run homerun with two outs in the 3rd inning.

Myers (5-for-7 with four runs scored and three RBIs) and Lough (3-for-5 with five RBIs) fell a triple short of the cycle. Clint Robinson fell a homerun short of the cycle (5-for-7 with three runs scored and two RBIs).

The onslaught of offense made a winner of veteran Doug Davis, who allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over six innings. The Storm Chasers bullpen trio allowed just two hits over the final three innings.

Leading 4-2 heading into the top of the 9th inning, NW Arkansas lost to Frisco, 6-4. The Rough Riders scored four runs on a Chris McGuiness one out grand slam. In the bottom of the 9th inning, the Naturals went down quietly, with three strikeouts.

That blast negated the solid start by Noel Arguelles, who allowed two runs (one earned) on seven hits and five walks while striking out five over seven innings.

The Naturals collected nine hits, with Paulo Orlando and Mario Lisson each picking up three (Lisson hit a homerun).

The Naturals welcomed Justin Marks back from a long DL stint, but placed Yordano Ventura on the DL (he has minor carpal tunnel).

Wilmington beat Salem 5-0, as they swept Salem over their final three-game set. The Blue Rocks rode the arm of Matt Ridings, who did not allow a hit until the 6th inning. He pitched a career-high seven innings and allowed just three hits while striking out three and hitting two batters. He also had good defense behind him, as he induced ten ground ball outs.

Murray Watts and Luis Piterson provided the bulk of the Blue Rocks offense, as both collected two hits, scored a run, and drove in a run (Watts hit a homerun).

For more on Ridings’ outing, check out this article on milb.com.

Kane County pounded out 15 hits, as they beat Cedar Rapids, 9-5. Five Cougars had multi-hit games. The bottom two in their order, Henry Moreno and Kevin David, went a combined 5-for-8 with four runs scored. Moreno hit his first homerun.

All of that offense made a winner of Kyle Smith, who allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits and a walk over five innings. He struck out four.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 2-for-2 with two walks in Burlington’s 8-0 loss to Bluefield.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

On today’s episode, I talked with host John Ackeren about the Royals, their recent moves, who’s on the hot seat, as well as some of the minor league talent still making its way up the pipeline. Also on the show are Michael Castillo of our USC site Reign of Troy and Josh Lobdell of Detroit Jock City.

FanSided Radio is geared towards you, the sports fanatic. We bring you the shows and content you are looking for in sports podcasts. FanSided Radio is your way to listen to great sports talk, whenever you want to listen!

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

This is my first post in nearly two months.  A lot of things have come up in the past two months that have taken my attention away from my articles, but now I’m back and ready to focus on my posts.  At this point in the season, not many things have gone right, however there are still a few interesting developments I’d like to see play out over the course of the next two months.

The first thing I’d like to see is Billy Butler give a nice run towards breaking Steve Balboni‘s single season record of 36 home runs.  With the juiced ball and steroid era, it was commonplace for teams to have multiple players with 30 and 40 home run seasons.  The Royals have remained quiet with the long ball and at 27 years and counting no one has surpassed Balboni’s 36 home runs in 1985.  I’m aware Butler only has 20 home runs through Sunday’s game but with a few hot streaks here and there it is possible for him to challenge the record.

The next thing I’d like to see is Greg Holland really stake a claim to the closer’s role as we head into next season.  Now I’ll admit I’ve been one of the biggest Holland advocates for the past two years.  I really like his makeup and his electric stuff, but I truly believe he could be a very dominate closer for the Royals for at least the next few years.

It’s been really nice to see Mike Moustakas carry over his hot September from last season into this year.  It’s been an even better surprise to see how well he has played defensively at third base.  On the other side of the diamond has been Eric Hosmer, who has been a little different story than Moose.  Hosmer still has time this season to get things in gear and put together a respectable season, although his time will be running out very soon.  It would certainly make me feel a bit more at ease going into the off season with Hosmer raking over the last several weeks of the season.

The last thing I’d like to see the rest of the way is the arrival of the most talked about prospect in all of baseball, Wil Myers.  Now it may be possible the Royals decide to keep Myers down until next year, but that will anger a lot, if not all, of the fan base.  I’d love to see what Wil can do the rest of the way if he gets the call.  It will, at least, add a little bit of suspense for the final two months to see if he gets promoted to Kansas City.  We will just have to wait and see what the front office decides to do, as he may end up waiting until next May to finally put on a Major League uniform.

I hope to see a few of these stories develop into realization.  These are some things that keep me watching even in the dog days of the season when the team is struggling to stay out of the basement in the AL Central.  What are some other interesting topics fans are looking forward to the rest of the season?  I’d love to hear what others are thinking about.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

His replacement will be organizational stalwart Rusty Kuntz, himself an outfield defensive coach in the organization and the man who worked primarily with Alex Gordon when he converted to left field in Omaha. Gordon won a Gold Glove in left last year, of course.

So that’s the news update.

Pardon me if this seems just too snarky, even for a Royals fan, but this is the kind of “deck chairs on the Titanic” kind of move that teams love to do. It’s not just the Royals, it’s sports. Sure, some of these little things do matter, but really, how consequential is a first base coach? Yes, the Royals stunk it up on the bases in 2012, especially early, but does one coaching change make that big of a difference? Are the Royals suddenly or even gradually going to make better decisions in the heat of the moment on the basepaths?

The Royals said that a change was warranted, and sure, maybe it was. I’m not really upset that Sisson is gone. I couldn’t grade the abilities of one baserunning coach over another. There’s not really a coaching WAR stat out there to try to quantify things. The Royals overall are better than average in total stolen bases, but they’ve seen their share of mistakes. I don’t know how much that goes onto Sisson versus placing the blame on the players. The coach prepares, the players execute.

I don’t want to misrepresent the Royals position on the move. I’m not suggesting that they think firing Doug Sisson makes this team a playoff contender right now and that all the problems are solved.

But my hunch, after watching this team for so long, is that they see this sort of move as doing something when it really looks more like a move for the move’s sake. They can say they did something to turn the bad play around, when really it doesn’t do anything.

Maybe there’s more to it and Sisson just wasn’t meshing with the rest of the staff. I don’t know. Hitting coaches and pitching coaches get a lot of credit for turning players around or getting the best out of them, but their influence is overstated at the big league levels. I’d guess that a very good player like Robinson Cano would be a very good hitter if his hitting coach were Kevin Seitzer or Groucho Marx. Placing blame, giving credit, these are difficult things to do fairly. Greg Schaum pointed out a contradiction: if Kuntz gets credit for turning around Gordon, does he take the blame for Wil Myers (apparently) not being ready as an outfielder? That’s who’s been working with him in the minors this whole time.

In the big picture, I don’t think it matters who’s coaching first, but it would then follow that such a move wouldn’t be necessary either. As I said before, this is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. But if the Royals win their next 50 games, prepare for Rusty Kuntz night at the K.

Tony Abreu hit a grand slam in the Storm Chasers five-run 5th inning and Wil Myers hit a three-run homerun in their five-run 7th inning. Abreu and Myers (the Storm Chasers 3-4 hitters) went 5-for-9 with four runs scored and nine RBIs.

It was a cool 106 degrees at game time.

Sugar Ray Marimon

NW Arkansas ended July on a high note, with a 7-1 victory to open their three-game series in Tulsa. Sugar Ray Marimon improved to 2-3 in Double-A, with seven shutout innings. He allowed three hits and three walks.

The Naturals offense collected 14 hits, with every starter (but Carlo Testa) picking up a hit. Manny Pina hit a three-run homerun in the 5th inning (3-for-5).

Just like in OKC, it was a cool 108 degrees at game time.

NW Arkansas and Wilmington swapped relievers, as Sam Runion was promoted and Nick Rogers was sent back to Wilmington. At the time of Rogers’ promotion, I thought that Runion should have been the one receiving the promotion. If it had been a month earlier, I would have picked Rogers. Hopefully Rogers can get his command back (16 walks in 9.2 innings with the Naturals).

Wilmington started their road trip with a 2-0 loss in Winston-Salem. The Dash scored a single run in the first inning and never looked back. Andy Ferguson was the hard luck loser, as he allowed the two runs on six hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out eight.

Angel Franco returned from the DL to go 2-for-4 (the Blue Rocks only had four hits).

A six-run bottom of the 2nd inning did in Kane County, as they lost to Beloit, 9-4. The Cougars scored all their runs in the final two innings.

The Cougars collected 12 hits, but went just 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Kevin David raised his average to .200 as he went 2-for-4. Their 3-4 hitters, Jorge Bonifacio and Julio Aparicio, went 5-for-10.

The KC Royals top pick in this June’s draft, Kyle Zimmer, allowed six runs on six hits and three walks over just two innings in his second start in Low-A.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Burlington’s 1-0 loss to Princeton.

Different Day, Same Result (Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE)

Have you stopped paying attention? Or, like me, do you continue to torture yourself with optimism and search like Sherlock Holmes for any bit of good news. Basically, the same thing we’ve all been doing for as long as we can remember. With Chiefs training camp about to start, the Summer Olympics in London, and the pitter-patter of College Football, odds are that the amount of people paying attention to our Major League Baseball team is going to fall drastically.

Well, I have some ideas that might help the Royals retain some of their audience in 2012. This is what they should do the rest of the way:

1) Scrap the Rotation.
Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Jeremy Guthrie. That’s your current five man rotation. ERAs of 5.54, 5.26, 4.31, 6.26, and 6.49 respectively. You need to blow it up, shake their hands & tell them thank you, and go with your “ideal” rotation for the rest of the year – no matter how bad it gets. That may mean keeping Mendoza and even Smith, but let’s say you go with Aaron Crow, Ryan Verdugo, Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock & call up Jake Odorizzi. You throw those guys out there & let them see what they can do over the course of 65 games. Starting every 5th game, each of them would get aprox. 13 starts. By the end of the year, you’d know exactly what you have in these guys. Right now, you’ve got a guy who’s been talked about as a starter, a minor league sensation, the potential saving grace of the Sanchez-Cabrera trade, and a couple of guys who’ve spent half the season on I-29.

Another Call to the Bullpen-Will Anyone Answer? (Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

2) Rest the Bullpen.
These guys are burnt out. With the exception of Aaron Crow, who’ll be worked into the starting rotation, everyone else needs a break. I’d like to see Tommy Hottovy get a chance to replace Crow and see some innings – again, to see if he’s any good. I like a majority of the bullpen guys, but the problem is that they’re usually entering the game in a bad situation and without the benefit of a lead. Over the course of a season though, all of these innings are going to catch up with them. Guys will tire out, perform worse, and possibly get injured. The relief needs some relief.

3) Put your 2013 Team on the Field.
When I look at the current team, I like it. I think it can be great. They’re gaining experience everyday that will (hopefully) someday pay big dividends, especially if they’re not playing from behind all the time. I only see two gaps – Right Field and Second Base. It’s not that Frenchy & YuniGetz are horrible every day, but everybody knows that they’re not the long term solution. What other positions on the field aren’t occupied by our long term solution? Therefore, you get Johnny Giavotella back to Kansas City and give him the rest of the season to prove that he can hit at the Major League Level. He’s got nothing left to prove in Omaha & has been mishandled thus far in KC. He’s your everyday second baseman the rest of the way. Finally, you pull the freaking trigger on Wil Myers and play him in the outfield. I think that Jeff Francoeur would make a great mentor for Myers, and would be a good use of his talents for the remainder of the year. Basically, you make Francoeur Wil’s personal fielding & etiquette coach. I’d rather see him cut his teeth at the big league level with absolutely no pressure than to continue to watch him hit .340 in Omaha. His arrival will bring a spark to the fanbase.

The Kid is Ready-Make it Happen Already (Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

4) Set your Ideal Lineup.
I don’t care who is hitting what, I’m tired of seeing the lineup shuffled every single day. Hosmer is not (hopefully) an 8 hole hitter. Mike Moustakas should never hit eigth. Create your lineup and stick with it. Gordon, Escobar, Cain, Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Myers, Giavotella. GO. Looks good, right? Get guys comfortable with where they’re hitting. Bunt in bunt situations with good bunters. Play to the talents of individual hitters for the greater good of the collective lineup. I understand that it’s hard to have a consistent lineup when guys aren’t performing, but always shuffling the lineup makes players ancy. It gets in their head. They shouldn’t have to look at the lineup card every day to figure out where they’re hitting.

Throwback Roadies (Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE)

5) Throwback Uniforms.
Moving beyond the talent on the field, you’ve got to do more to entertain the fans as well. This should involve being the first team to wear throwback uniforms for every game. I’m not talking about the baby blue alternate top – I mean the KC Monarchs throwbacks that they work against the Twins this past Saturday. Not only were they completely awesome, they have a tendency to make players look more gritty than they might already be. Complete the look by scrapping the Royal Blue “KC” black helmets and just wear plain black helmets the rest of the way. Road uniforms could be the ones the team wore against the Pirates on June 9th. (without the BLUE) Also, “new” uniforms means more apparel sales along the way. Who knows, maybe you start a trend in Major League Baseball?

6) Free Parking.
Why not? I get it that the Royals would lose revenue by not being able to charge thousands of cars $10 to park their car and walk 1/2 a mile to get into the stadium. However, I feel that something like having to pay for parking is just one more excuse why people would not want to come out and watch this team in person this year. If you don’t charge to park (see: Kansas City T-Bones), more people would show up and you could make your money back in concession and merchandise sales. Also, you’ve got to reimburse the fans who have already bought parking passes. You could do this with “stadium bucks” if you prefer. Besides, you can’t lose money on parking because you’re not giving the fan anything in return, just a piece of pavement. A very narrow piece of pavement.

7) Reward the Season Ticket Holders.
Do this by upgrading everyone to the lower bowl. If you have season tickets in the lower bowl, you get moved forward (if you want). Everyone else who bought season tickets in the upper deck? Come on down… Instead of having scattered loyal fans way up high, you make their year and put them closer to the action. This accomplishes many things and sets you up for others. First of all, the stadium would look more full on TV. Secondly, some of those fans who bought cheap seats might realize how much better the experience is when you sit closer, and be willing to shell out a little more money for lower bowl tickets next year. Surely there were a lot of one-time season ticket holders this year because of the All-Star Game opportunities, so you’ve got to do something to try and get them to become repeat customers. Also, it’s a pretty cool way to say thank you to the fans that made a financial commitment to you, even though you haven’t done the same for them.

Plenty of Good Seats Still Available (Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

8 ) Backfill the Upper Deck.
Now that everyone has been moved downstairs, you’ve got to do something with that spacious upper deck. Make it $5 general admission seating for the rest of the season. Remember the excitement of waiting in line for the best GA ticket? Well, that’s gone now, and the best you can do (cheapest) is a Hy-Vee Outfield Seat, which is in the corners of the Upper Deck for $12. “$12? Na, I’ll just stay home. $5 and free parking? Take me out to the ballgame. Buy me beers and sausages.”

9) Improve the TV Broadcast.
This is for the fans who prefer to stay home, can’t afford to – or don’t have time to go to every game, or would rather not fight the heat or the crowd. You think I’m going to say replace Rex Hudler or worse (in my opinion), Steve Physioc. But I’m not. I’m going for the gold here. I love Joel Goldberg, but you replace him with former 38 The Spot host Holly Starr. This may be a desperate attempt to retain viewers, but I think we’re at that point. Keep Joel as part of the Pre & Post game if you want, but make Holly his co-host. You can lose Jeff Montgomery. I don’t care if she doesn’t know a thing about baseball – People will watch.

What do they define insanity as? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. With these changes, the rest of a lost season could definitely be an interesting one to watch.

Francoeur eventually needs to vacate right field. (Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

If you’ve been reading our articles at Kings of Kauffman for a while, you might know that my first article ever published for this site attempted to legitimize signing Jeff Francoeur way back in the fall of 2010. I didn’t get very far, and I missed a few things that I could’ve used to bolster a case for a signing that I didn’t agree with. It’s just interesting to note that I’ve come all this way and now I’m trying to figure out what the Royals should do with Francoeur.

I was one of the guys who got into Frenchy fever in 2011, as I was pleasantly surprised by his contribution and production. His smooth and suave interview skills wooed me, and I soon found myself as a Francoeur fan. I’ve since woken up from that state of (dis)belief, as we all have this season, and now feel stuck with the guy. Talk about a mood change.

So, Francoeur went from batting .285/.329/.476 in 2011 to .252/.291/.384 so far in 2012, including a sweet .208/.238/.299 line in his last 151 plate appearances since peaking at a .284 batting average. To be fair, if Francoeur would’ve stayed around that peak line – which was similar to the 2011 line – the conversation would be very different. It’s funny what 36 games can do to our perception of players. But Francoeur plays everyday, striking out four times as often as he walks, and providing below-average offense (average is .266/.331/.444 for right fielders). And, to make matters worse, he’ll make $6 million this season, with about $2.75 million remaining to be earned for 2012. Oh, and there’s that nice $7.5 million that we have to look forward to next year.

And then there’s Wil Myers.

Though Myers has cooled off a bit, he’s still hitting .313/.402/.631 at Omaha, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s going to force his way to the Royals roster. That’s where things snag a bit: Myers is likely to be a right fielder. And Francoeur seems unlikely to yield playing time for Myers with that price tag dangling in the wind. Now that Lorenzo Cain is healthy, he’s our center fielder, so even if the Royals wanted Myers at center, they’d have to struggle with moving Cain out. And Alex Gordon is cemented into left field through at least 2015. So, the easiest solution seems to be removing Francoeur. He is the weakest link.

Did I say easiest? I think I meant hardest.

I guess Francoeur could have some trade value. He’s not necessarily the French god of right field, but there’s something. If Dayton Moore could trade Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel for more than buffalo chips, he’s got to get something for Francoeur, right? Don’t forget that Tim Collins came out of that deal with Atlanta, though the Royals soon discarded the other pieces from the return. Bundle Francoeur with a mediocre pitcher, and we could potentially see a similar deal. Well, except for that weight of the $7.5 million 2013 season dragging behind his moving truck. And except for the fans’ general love of Francoeur, though that seems to have cooled a bit this season. Also, we all have to remember that Moore is a big fan of Francoeur, so he may have a hard time letting him go.

Wil Myers is biding his time in Omaha. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

I guess what I’m saying is that it’s hard to decide what to do with Francoeur. The Royals have a player in Myers that could conceivably replace his ouput or even exceed it, though we won’t know for sure until Myers gets the call. You never know what Francoeur will do, but his recent stretch has made this decision more necessary, though no less difficult. Also, whether you believe in such things or not, the other guys seem to really enjoy Francoeur’s leadership and advice. It’s up to each person to decide if he believes that, but I trust the other players’ views and thoughts. If Francoeur really does make a difference in the clubhouse, it’s even more difficult to make this decision.

If Myers continues to hit well and Francoeur continues to flounder, something will have to happen. The problem is that the longer you wait, the lower Francoeur’s trade value gets, if it can go lower. But then you wonder if that’s even a concern. If we get peanuts for him and aren’t paying his contract, that’s that much more payroll that’s open for 2013 that could be used toward, say, a pitcher. With that thought, it’s almost worth giving him away.

This got a bit longer than I’d predicted, and I apologize. But I want to make it clear that this is a difficult matter to work through. It’s not going to be an easy decision, but it’s going to be a decision that arises at some point. With Myers banging on the door, it wouldn’t be useful to keep him out of Kansas City for another season and a half. If he continues to play like he has, the Royals have to be interested in having that bat in the lineup for every game. And that means removing the current right fielder.

It’s going to be a tough decision, but it has to be done at some point. Whether before this trading deadline, in the offseason, or during next season, Francoeur will almost assuredly have to make space for Wil Myers. It’s just a matter of time.

Irving Falu and Clint Robinson each had two hits in the win.

Jake Odorizzi improved to 6-0 in Triple-A, as he allowed the one run on seven hits and four walks over six innings. He struck out four.

March 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Mike Montgomery (22) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for Mike Montgomery, they did. He was demoted to Double-A NW Arkansas and lost on Saturday night to Springfield, 5-1. He allowed all five runs on six hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six while throwing 60 of his 92 pitches for strikes.

The Naturals offense was dormant, with their lone run coming via a Carlo Testa homerun. They had just three hits.

The Naturals have now lost three in a row and will try to salvage the series finale at Springfield on Sunday.

Wilmington moved to within a game of first place in the Northern Division of the Carolina League with a 6-3 win over Potomac. Elisaul Pimentel picked up his first win since being sent back to the Blue Rocks. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Matt Fields hit another homerun, his 9th since joining the Blue Rocks, while Lane Adams went 3-for-4. Whit Merrifield went 2-for-5 in the win.

Kane County beat West Michigan, 6-4. The two teams combined for 21 hits and seven errors. Justin Trapp led off and went 3-for-5 with a homerun. Dean Espy and Tim Ferguson each collected two hits.

Bryan Brickhouse picked up the win, as he allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits over six innings. He struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Burlington moved on to Princeton, but had the same result that they had over the last three days in Kingsport: another postponement.

Wil Myers remained with the Storm Chasers following the All-Star break and went 2-for-3 with a double. Will Smith picked up the win with seven solid innings. He allowed one run on seven hits and a walk while striking out six.

NW Arkansas lost via a walk-off walk to Springfield, 2-1 in 13 innings. After a leadoff double and a fly out moved the runner to third base, the Naturals chose to intentionally walk the next two batters to load the bases. Problem was, they didn’t change pitchers and Ethan Hollingsworth walked the next batter on five pitches to drive in the winning run.

Both teams scored single runs in the 9th inning via solo homeruns. Paulo Orlando gave the Naturals a quick 1-0 lead with his third homerun of the season. Former Natural Jamie Romak hit his fourth homerun of the season with two outs in the bottom of the inning.

That negated the solid start by Michael Mariot, who did not allow a run over 7.2 innings. He allowed four hits while striking out three (though he walked four), but he threw just 79 pitches and wasn’t in trouble.

Manny Pina caught the first nine innings and went 0-for-4. The Naturals collected eight hits, but went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.

Jason Adam

The Wilmington Blue Rocks finally won with Jason Adam on the mound, as they beat visiting Potomac, 3-1. Adam finally picked up his second win of the season, as he allowed one run (a solo homerun) over seven innings.

The Blue Rocks collected eight hits, with the top two in the order (Angel Franco and Orlando Calixte) picking up four of them.

The P-Nats had rehabbing big leaguer Xavier Nady in the lineup again (no Drew Storen tonight) and he went 2-for-4.

Kane County received another stellar start from Angel Baez, as they beat South Bend, 2-1. Baez allowed an unearned run on two hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out ten.

Both teams only collected four hits and both teams scored their runs in the 4th inning.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling did not play again tonight as Burlington and Kingsport were once again postponed (that’s three in a row).

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

The Triple-A All-Star Game was held on Wednesday night and Wil Myers took home the MVP award to cap a fine week of All-Star accolades. The Pacific Coast League beat the International League in Buffalo, 3-0. Myers went 2-for-3 with an RBI. He was one of only two players two record a multi-hit game (Leslie Anderson of the IL also collected two hits). Myers played left field.

Clint Robinson came off the bench to play first base and went 0-for-1 (a strikeout). Ryan Verdugo pitched the third inning, walked one, and struck out one. Tommy Hottovy recorded the first two outs in the 8th inning. He struck out one.

NW Arkansas broke their eight game losing streak on Tuesday night with an 8-7 walk-off win over San Antonio. They had Wednesday off before starting a four-game road trip in Springfield on Thursday.

It was ugly in the beginning, as Naturals starter Noel Arguelles didn’t make it out of the first inning after allowing four runs. However the offense battled back, they got enough out of their bullpen, and had a little luck. In the 9th inning, Michael Liberto led off with a single and Yem Prades followed with a walk. After a strikeout and a pitching change, Brian Fletcher walked to load the bases for John Whittleman, who delivered a sac fly to tie the game. A throwing error home led to the winning run scoring.

Wilmington began their home series with Potomac with a 6-2 victory. Brooks Pounders picked up his second win in the Carolina League with six solid innings. He allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out eight.

Matt Fields continued his power-hitting, as he went 3-for-4 with his 7th homerun with the Blue Rocks.

Kane County collected just five hits, but beat South Bend, 3-0. They scored single runs in the first, 5th, and 6th inning.

Aaron Brooks picked up the win with seven shutout innings. He allowed four hits while striking out six.

Bubba Watch: Burlington’s game in Kingsport was postponed.

In our second show of All-Star Weekend, we find the Royalmen in the epicenter of All-Star Festivities right outside of the Power and Light District at The Flying Saucer. We started out show with a bit of a scare as we went on the air right as a bomb threat occurred.

Once that was cleared, we turned to happier topics such as what the All-Star festivities meant to Kansas City and Fan Fest. The first half of the show, Chris is joined by Rambling Morons cohorts Laurie Kunkel and Chris Atkins. The second half of the show focused on the Futures Game and the performances of Royals Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Yordano Ventura as well as the game’s MVP Nick Castellanos and the ridiculous speed of Billy Hamilton with reaction from Michael Engel and Troy Olsen.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Within an outstanding atmosphere and a few sprinkles of rain (which helped bring the temperature down into reasonable territory, as opposed to the triple digits the Midwest has been tormented by recently), fans were able to faces to names as the best minor league talent was putting on a show at Kauffman Stadium.

The field at the K during the Futures Game, shot by @scottweiters

The Royals fans gave warm welcomes to their three representatives. Jake Odorizzi and Yordano Ventura (who will reportedly be promoted to Double A) started the game for Team USA and the World Team respectively while Wil Myers started in right field. All three gained large ovations when they were announced, with Myers getting the largest.

Once the game started, Odorizzi made one mistake to Jurickson Profar, who took a high fastball into the right field corner and over the wall for a homer, but Odorizzi struck out Diamondbacks pr0spect Alfredo Marte to finish the inning. Ventura dispatched the US team with little incident, inducing three groundouts in a perfect inning. In the Futures Game, pitchers don’t go more than an inning, so the Royals duo of pitchers were in and out quickly.

Wil Myers batted third for George Brett‘s USA team and received a standing ovation in his first at bat. He grounded out to third, but it was close at first. Myers played the whole game, moving to center field halfway through the game. He drove in three and went 2-4 with two singles and a sacrifice fly. He made every play in the outfield that he had a shot at, but didn’t make quick reads in center, so he has more to get used to in that spot. He didn’t look lost, just not as comfortable as he did in right.

The World team jumped out to a 4-0 lead after the Profar homer and a two-run homer by Jae-Hoon Ha of the Cubs. They added the fourth in the third inning but only one more all day.

The US team got on the board after Billy Hamilton drove a ball to deep center that got over Ha’s head, which was dangerous with Hamilton’s speed – he ended up with a two run triple and flew around the basepaths in the process. Kelton Wong of the Cardinals hit a one-out chopped back to Chris Reed of the Dodgers who looked Hamilton back and made a bad throw to first which let Wong get over to third after driving in the run. Myers grounded out to second to tie the score.

The runs just piled up after that for the US team. In the sixth inning, they put up nine runs, including a three run bomb to center by game MVP Nick Castellanos of the Tigers. Ariel Pena was hit hard repeatedly in the inning and gave up eight runs and only retired Myers, who hit a sacrifice fly to drive in a run.

Manny Machado was impressive in the game. On the US side, the Orioles prospect doubled off the left field wall and made a couple of leaping catches at shortstop. Mike Olt from the Rangers system had a deep drive for a double as well.

The game wasn’t really close, but it was an entertaining event regardless and attendance was better than most other Futures Games. Many were Royals fans there to see Myers and company, but they were treated to the elite of the minor leagues – and a lot of offense.

Bonus – I wanted to share this gif of a foul ball that Myers just missed during the game that broke the camera behind home plate (simply click the image):

Wil Myers fouls one off ... of the camera.