First, let’s recall the Greinke bullpen move success.  He moved to the bullpen after leaving baseball for awhile and was quite good out of the pen for the Royals in 2007.  He went from a guy with a low 90s fastball to a mid 90s guy who could reach back and get a 97 or 98 when needed.  In 2008 when he headed back into the rotation, Greinke lost some of the velocity that he showed in the pen, which is to be expected, but his overall velocity was improved from his time before the switch.  Now his fastball was sitting 93 or so and he still showed the ability to go up and hit 96 or 97 at times.  Wade Davis showed the velocity gain in his transition to relief, but this year has not been able to maintain any of the gains when starting again.

The Fangraphs velocity chart may show something even worse.  Last year Davis’ fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, and toward the end of the year was sitting above 95 consistently.  This also lead to a massive spike in strike out rate from 5.14K/9 in 2011 to 11.13 last year.  Looking at this year, his velocity is back down to an average fastball just above 91 MPH.  That is his lowest average ever.  Now it does show that his velocity tends to tick up a bit as the season wears on as a starter and as a reliever, so maybe he will be 92 to 93 in the middle of summer.  If that happens though, that would be more in line with 2010 and 11 when he was a back of the rotation guy at best, and his strike out rate this year is showing the same sitting at 6.64 per 9.

There has been a major change to his pitch mix.  He has been using a cutter that he hadn’t thrown in the past.  Davis has thrown the cutter 16 to 19 percent of the time and so his two and four seam fastballs have been used a lot less.  None of his pitches have done very well based on pitch values and most of this comes from an increased line drive and home run rate.  One of the problems with the cutter, in my opinion anyway, is that it might make his change up less effective.  The speed differential between the two pitches is only about 2 MPH, 88 down to 86, so the batters may not be thrown off by the change at all.  Part of that might also be because his change has been on average 1 MPH faster than last year too.

For Davis to be effective like last year something is going to need to change.  Right now he looks way too much like the bad Wade Davis that Tampa Bay took out of their rotation and nothing like the good Wade Davis they had in their bullpen last year.  The answer is probably not as simple as getting away from the cutter, but that may be one place to start.  Hopefully as summer comes his velocity will come back as it has before and help some, but it would be nice to see him show some signs that the successes of 2012 in the pen can be moved into the starting role.

Cue panic from Royals fans.

So far this spring, Davis has made two spring starts and has covered five innings. He’s been effective, giving up no runs and no walks and just three singles. He’s hit a batter but has three strikeouts. Unofficially, he’s thrown 68 pitches, 42 of which went for strikes.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Wade Davis (22) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Originally, Davis was set to pitch on Saturday, but Yordano Ventura will start against the San Francisco Giants in his place. In the meantime, Davis is still throwing on the side, but the Royals aren’t pushing him for a few days. Ned Yost said that it’s “slight” soreness and that they want to keep it that way.

Obviously, any injury question brings up bad memories of last year’s team. Not to dig up frightening memories, but the Royals opened the season with Joakim Soria and Blake Wood shut down and Salvador Perez and Manuel Pina recovering from meniscus surgery. Then Danny Duffy tore his UCL. Then Felipe Paulino did the same. The Royals didn’t have the depth to handle it last season. Even though they do in 2013, Davis is counted on as the fourth starter and his performance so far has justified that job security. Since he’s still throwing and not shut down, it could just be an completely minor blip that doesn’t come up again.

But you’d rather there be no issues than slight ones. Especially when it’s a joint like the shoulder. For now, there’s little need to worry, but if it turns that Davis gets skipped again or he comes back and is ineffective, it’s going to increase the anxiety. The Royals could put Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen in the rotation and still have Luis Mendoza as a long reliever and potential backup starter. They can weather a storm, but not a big one.

A potential Davis injury would be a hefty blow after the price paid to bring him along with James Shields to Kansas City. The Royals had him in the deal because they believe he can be a starter. Shifting him to the bullpen limits his value and a significant injury would cost him a lot of time. Davis is under contract through 2014 but the Royals have team options for 2015, 2016 and 2017. There’s been no report that he’s at any risk of missing time beyond this spring start, but immediate reactions jump to the worst case scenario. If they can get him to work out as a starter, he adds a lot more value to their return for Wil Myers and company. An injury would wipe that out.

For now, though, the Royals are saying Davis will miss just the one start. Let’s hope that prognosis stands.

Our return of this blockbuster deal, netted us a solid frontline starter and a solid bullpen arm who could be a bit of a project to produce as a number three or number four down the road.  Big Game James Shields is the best starting pitcher this team has seen since Zack Greinke.  In 2011, he was an All-Star and took third in the American League Cy Young balloting.  He wasn’t quite as strong in 2012, but he still threw over 200 innings for the 6th straight season.  One thing is certain, we can count on Shields to be out there every fifth day as he’s started 33 games in each of the past five seasons.

Wade Davis will be the wild card in this deal for a few years to come.  I believe we know what we have in Shields, but Davis is definitely a question mark.  As a reliever last season he struck out 87 hitters in just over 70 innings of work.  He’s had solid years as a starter for the Rays, as he’s collected double digit wins in both his seasons as a full time starter.  His contract is very favorable to the Royals and if he can be a solid three or four starter, then this trade can be viewed as a definite win for the Royals.  Of course, that’s a very big if.  I am very optimistic that Davis will stick in the rotation, mainly because I don’t know what he would do out of the bullpen.  One thing that should happen as a result of this trade is finally push Luke Hochevar out of the rotation, at least I hope it does.

To land quality, established, front line pitching, one must give up talent as well.  The Royals certainly did just that, as they gave away three highly touted prospects.  The most notable being Baseball America’s current Minor League Player of the Year, Wil Myers.  Myers is certainly capable of being a perennial All-Star as he crushed Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2012 and has a great track record of hitting during his years spent in the minors.  However, he could also be a flop as some other coveted Royals prospects never amounted to much at the Major League level.  We all remember Mark Quinn and Dee Brown.  With Myers’ value the highest it has ever been, the Royals capitalized and received two great arms in return.  Personally, I would have loved getting Price in return or perhaps Hellickson and Shields together, but Davis and Shields drastically changes our major league rotation for the better.

The Rays also received the Royals best pitching prospect in Jake Odorizzi.  I’m not sold on the fact that Jake Odorizzi will be an elite pitcher or even a number two or three for that matter.  I think it speaks volumes that he was a first round draft pick, and yet two teams have already traded him away.  I think his ceiling equates exactly to a Wade Davis type and Davis has already been proven in the big leagues, as a solid reliever and an average starter.  In that part of the trade, I believe we made out just fine.

Mike Montgomery is a very intriguing guy for me.  It is clear he just is not getting it right now.  A change of scenery and a new organization has me believing he can turn himself into a very serviceable starter or solid lefty bullpen arm for several years.  Just remember he’s only 23 years old, and the Rays have a history of developing young pitching.  I didn’t want to see him go, but for him to be successful he would have to eventually leave this organization and I would like for him to succeed.

So, what does this all mean?  Simply put, the Royals are making a conscious effort to push for the playoffs.  That is the main reason why I have reached my peace with this move.  I think I’m just so used to being a fan of a team that is always the one receiving prospects, that it just caught me off guard.  Once I realized that we might actually have a serviceable rotation top to bottom, it kind of got me really excited for this coming season to start.  I do not think the front office’s work is done by any means.  If the organization wants to go all in and commit to winning, I think there is room for one more additional quality starter.  I don’t want to put a label on these next two years as being “playoffs or bust”, but a winning record and a contending team in September is a must.

I still don’t like the fact we overpaid for pitching, but the deal is done and it should benefit us in the short run to compete in the AL Central to try and break our playoff drought.  One last thing, it will be nice, come April, to actually send out a starter on Opening Day who we can legitimately call an Opening Day starter.

Before we get into the links, I wanted to mention the two new writers have joined the FanSided MLB team this week.  The first, if you read this site daily you already know about.  Michael Engel has joined me on staff here at Kings of Kauffman as a contributor.  The second new writer is Lawrence Barreca who is joining Michael Worley over on our Orioles site, Birds Watcher.

Birds Watcher:  Will Mazzone’s Philosophy Fix Guthrie’s Problems?

Blog Red Machine: No new posts.

BoSox Injection: Sox Sign Veteran Lefty

Call to the Pen update:  will the site be up by this time next week?  Will my life get even more crazy as a result?  Stay tuned …

Chicken Friars: Erik Davis – Sleeper Prospect or Non-Prospect?

Cubbies Crib:  Cubs Quick Hits – Colvin, Frasor, and the Rotation

Deep Left Field: So Who’s the Guy the Indians Got to Pitch for Fausto?

Frisco Fastball: Giants Lock Up Affeldt For Two Years

Halo Hangout: No New Posts.

Jays Journal: Top 5 Jays SP Prospects

Lasorda’s Lair: No new posts.

Marlin Maniac: No lefties, no difference for Fish

Motor City Bengals: Bonderman, Willis Make Final Push Today

Nolan Writin‘: Edwar Ramirez had a short stop with the Rangers before being traded …

Rayhawk Review: Wade Davis Takes the 5th Spot

Redbird Rants: McClellan, Hill, or Garcia for the Fifth Spot?

Reviewing the Brew is still in need of a lead,  email us if you are interested in covering the Milwaukee Brewers.

Rising Apple: My Take on the Ike Davis Demotion and Jenrry Mejia Going Back-to-Back

Rox Pile: No new posts.

Rum Bunter: Ten Positives for the 2010 Pirates Grapefruit League

SoDo Mojo:  Cliff Lee’s Injured, But Don’t Freak Out

Southside Showdown is our new Chicago White Sox site.  We have a lead writer lined up and content should be coming soon.

Swingin’ A’s: A‘s Analysis – Bullpen

That Balls Outta Here: Reunion with Phillies Costs Brett Myers a Groin.  I really enjoyed this tidbit from Justin’s story:

Anybody catch A-Rod starting a completely routine double play that somehow made it into the highlights of the Orioles-Yankees game? That the O’s won EIGHT TO FUCKING ZERO?! Way to make it subtle, ESPN.

Teddy Never Wins is still in need of a lead, email us if you are interested in covering the Washington Nationals.

Tomahawk Take: Jason Heyward Gets Nod For Braves

Twinkie Talk: Twins Sign Mauer

Venom Strikes: Getting to the Heart of the Order

Yanks Go Yard: A-Rod to meet with Feds today

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)