Jul 29, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Tim Collins (55) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the 7th inning at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Kansas City 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Coming up threw the minor leagues, Collins had always had a high strikeout rate. In 223 innings, he struck out 329 batters. After coming over from the Braves in the Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth trade, he put up 20.1 strong innings and made the club last year out of spring training and had a solid year for a rookie. This year, he’s been even better and is barreling down on a record that has stood within the Royals organization since 1971.

Back then, Jim York struck out 103 batters in 93.1 innings in relief. Collins is at 89 through 64.2. He’s already one of only five Royals pitchers to strike out 85 batters in a season pitching exclusively out of the bullpen.

What’s most striking in that chart is that Collins is striking out a much higher percentage (33%!) of his batters than the others. He’s also the only left-handed pitcher. I’d wager he’s also the shortest.

So how’s Collins getting his strikeouts? He uses a mix of a fastball that averages 93.1 mph, a curveball with significant break, and a changeup that has been consistently good going back to last season. During spring training, the Royals adjusted his delivery so that he’s starting more on the first base side of the rubber and they had him lower his release point slightly.

Collins’s release points. Top, from 2011 (L) to 2012 (R) showing the shift on the rubber. Bottom, the lowered release point on his curveball from 2011 (L) to 2012 (R).

Those small adjustments have made a big difference. Collins had a good ERA last year, but still walked quite a bit of batters (6.4 BB/9). This season, he still walks four batters per nine innings but his strikeout rate has improved from 8.1 K/9 in 2011 to 12.4 K/9 this year. He can get away with a few walks because he’s getting outs without the ball going into play. He’s improved control and improved his dominance. The result is a potentially team record-breaking season.

Those changes have turned Collins’s curveball, a pitch that had negative value last season according to FanGraphs, into his most valuable pitch and he’s throwing it more often as well (27% this year versus 19.7% last year).

Collins has made it into 64 games this year out of the Royals 139. At that pace, he could get into 10 more. At his current strikeout rate of 12.4 per nine innings (and assuming one inning per appearance), that pace puts him at 102 strikeouts. Of course, he could get into 15 games. He could get into seven. He could throw two innings in a couple of them or could just go crazy striking out batters.

Does that team record matter? Not really, but it’s the Royals in September – you find the good footnotes that are out there. If nothing else, Collins has had a great 2012 as a strikeout artist and the adjustments made now should carry over into more success in the future.

Jeremy Guthrie, dominating. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That means that in his last three starts, Guthrie has gone 21 innings, given up just three earned runs and allowed only 18 baserunners while striking out 18.

Not bad for a guy the Royals got for Jonathan Sanchez.

Some fun facts about the game:

• Guthrie has thrown 15 straight shutout innings for the Royals. Sanchez has thrown 11.1 innings total for the Rockies in three starts.
• All eight of Guthrie’s strikeouts tonight came on a swing and a miss.
• After two rough starts as a Royal, Guthrie’s ERA has went from 6.68 to 5.75. He has a 4.02 ERA as a Royal. If you could cherry-pick a couple of innings out of those starts (like the third inning against the Twins and first two against the Mariners – and no, of course you can’t, but let’s dream a little), he could have a 1.58 ERA. I know, I know. That’s cheating.
• Tim Collins struck out the side in the eighth inning. He leads the team in relief appearances with three strikeouts or more with eight now.
• Collins also set a new team record for strikeouts in a season by a left-handed reliever with 77.
• David Holtzman from the Royals pointed out that Collins (5’7″), the shortest pitcher in team history, broke a record set by Andrew Sisco (6’10″) in 2005.
• The Royals pitchers struck out 12 batters, the third time they’ve done so in a nine inning game this season.It’s the ninth time they’d struck out 12 overall.
• By shutting out the A’s tonight, the Royals have more team shutouts (9) than the Washington Nationals (7) who lead the majors in team ERA.
• The Royals team ERA was 25th in the league coming into the night.
• Tonight’s was the fourth shutout thrown by the Royals against the A’s.
• The only wins the Royals have against the A’s have been those shutouts. The Royals haven’t won in the three games in which the A’s have scored against them.

What do these facts mean? Not a lot, but Guthrie has been a welcomed addition to the team, especially considering how bad Sanchez was and that the Royals were ready to dump him for nothing in return. Tim Collins has been a solid piece in the bullpen.

Also it’s fun to get a win behind very good pitching. It’s been too rare this season.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

And as the Royals fade into oblivion yet again, there are rumors (aren’t there always?) that Dayton Moore is in talks with just about every team, about every player, as the trade deadline approaches. Of course, with those rumors always comes the caveat that the Royals need to be compelled to trade any of their players.

Yeah, because as this roster is currently constructed, contention is imminent, and trading players would negatively affect the future.

Aside from the obvious reasons to not hang on to a mostly untalented roster, there’s a stiff breeze blowing from the south from a franchise that’s wide-open for trading business, and looks intent on sending everything packing that’s not bolted firmly to the floor.

Jeff Luhnow took over the Houston Astros’ GM position in December – leaving the Cardinals organization and being a major player in their rising success over the past few years – and immediately became the (new) jewel of the saber-community eye. He interviewed Keith Law. He hired Mike Fast.* He immediately started unloading his over-valued, over-priced players nearing the end of their contracts.

*An admitted Royals fan. Poor guy.

And as this season’s trade deadline is nearing, the Astros have traded their closer (ahem), their first baseman, their third baseman, and their best starting pitcher. What each deal brought in return doesn’t matter as much as the reasons for doing so.

The Astros are a bad team, and holding on to players who a) can easily be replaced by a minor leaguer (Chris Johnson) b) serve little purpose on a losing ball club (Brett Myers) or c) just aren’t that good anymore past their recognizable name, would be a huge mistake (Carlos Lee). Huge.

Granted, where the Astros are in their process of rebuilding is (presumably, at least in narrative) different than where the Royals currently are in theirs. But the correlation between each of those causes for trades with Houston and Luhnow serves as a stark reminder of the missteps so far with Dayton Moore during his regime, and ones that hopefully he’s not repeating as the clock ends the deadline tomorrow.

A)   Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt: two players currently on the roster that can, and most assuredly would, be more than adequately replaced by younger, cheaper players currently in Triple-A. Of course, at this point, another team would have to want either of these players, and there’s little reason to think any objective mind would care to have Francoeur wounded-giraffing his way around their outfield and swinging at everything that moves at the plate, or Betancourt Betancourting everywhere.

B)   Jonathan Broxton, or, Joakim Soria redux: the “closer” is a largely overrated role on a pitching staff anyway, but especially one on a regime that has yet to finish a season less than 10 games under .500. There’s no place for Broxton on this team anymore, given how bad that been over the past month-plus, and now would be the ideal time to find out if Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, or Kelvin Herrera can step in to fill the role in order to prepare for next season.

C)   Jeff Francoeur, again: this one is just too easy.  Francoeur at this point in his career is quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball. His negative 1.7 fWAR is the lowest in the major leagues, and there’s no amount of contrived leadership or naked batting practice that can make up for that. The contract offered to Francoeur was a mistake then, and remains a beacon for the reason teams should never pay for a player coming off a career year, before his positional market establishes. Dayton Moore beat the market to the punch when he signed Francoeur to his 2 year, $13MM deal, and the market punched back with a right-hook from hell.

If the Royals really wanted to be daring they would take this opportunity of over-valued relievers, and float the idea of a Broxton-plus package that consisted of both he and one of the other very cheap, and very young, bullpen arms.

Losing Holland, Collins, Herrera, or Crow could be a tough pill to swallow simply from a salary stand point, but there’s few other players currently on the roster that the Royals could flip in exchange for actual talent, and not have it be a major setback to the overall goal.

No matter the case, whether the Royals choose to be daring or practical as the final hours of the deadline approach, they cannot afford to stand-pat. Patience in The Process has been preached each year at this time, and because of that, moves that could have made a dramatic impact on the roster haven’t been done.

For this season, one in which more questions were raised than answers given, it would be nice if the Royals took a page out of the Houston playbook and made a concerted effort to trade everyone that doesn’t look to figure into the 2013 roster plans.

The Good

Well, um, there’s…well there’s…and there’s…

Billy Butler was named AL Player of the Week? Yeah, I guess that works. In his last 21 games Butler has been – well he’s been Billy Butler.

If it weren’t for Butler (.378/.440/.561 in his last 21 games) and Alex Gordon (.352/.406/.473 in his last 21 games) there would be little reason to watch the Royals on a nightly basis. Heck, probably even a weekly basis.

The Bad

Where’s a good place to start? The Royals have lost 21 of their last 27 games and the optimizing that was brewing at the start of June, has quickly faded back to the normal KC-fan despondence. The Twins, whom all Royals fans got pleasure in (finally) being able to mock to start the season, have climbed ahead of the Royals in the standings by slugging their way to victories despite missing Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe for a handful of games.

Yes, Buddy Bell was right.

Is there anything to look forward to? Heck, who knows? The quick answer would be “yes” because with each passing day the Royals are that much closer to calling up Wil Myers, but because that roster move has been inexplicably put-off for over a month now, it’s more likely that it won’t happen until September.

The Royals keep using the argument that a spot needs to be created for Myers before he can make his trek to Kansas City, but when the player he’s replacing is Jeff Francoeur, that would be like a TV network saying they just can’t find a place for the new Louis C.K. pilot because they already have ‘Whitney’ in that time slot. A change is a necessity, not a burden.

The Upcoming

The Royals next six games are against a Cleveland team that’s looking to unload some of its veteran, high-cost players, and a Texas team that’s likely to come into Kauffman Stadium and hit 27 homeruns in their three-game set.

So, a mid-summer home stand watching an (again) basement dwelling team on a massive losing stretch? That sounds super fun.

Today, I’ll try to do the same thing, but with those players the Royals have acquired over the years at the deadline. In some ways, it’s a difficult thing to do, as the Royals didn’t execute many trades at the deadline when they were in their heyday, usually haven’t been buyers at the deadline and the players they’ve traded away weren’t always the kind to inspire a blockbuster.

So the disclaimer on this one is that things could get ugly.

Another reminder that the trade deadline was originally June 15 up until 1986 when it was moved to the end of July. That rule applies in a couple of these situations.

C – Lucas May (2010)

On July 28, 2010, the Royals turned Scott Podsednik into a couple of intriguing prospects. Podsednik was having a surprising resurgence at the top of the Royals batting order. The Dodgers were in the hunt and looking for outfield help.

May was joined with Elisaul Pimentel in the deal. A converted shortstop, May was one of the top catching prospects in the Dodgers system and was hitting well in Triple A at the time. May ended up playing in 12 games for the Royals at the big league level but was mostly in Omaha after the deal. He was sold to Arizona for cash after the season and is currently in the Mets system.

1B – Ryan Shealy (2006)

At the deadline in 2006, the Royals and Rockies met up on a classic “change of scenery” deal. Shealy came over with pitcher Scott Dohmann on July 31 that year in exchange for lefty Jeremy Affeldt and right-hander Denny Bautista. Affeldt had been bounced around in various roles as part of the Royals pitching staff and nothing seemed to click for him. He also battled a persistent blister problem on his throwing hand  that always resurfaced. Bautista looked like a pitcher with promise but never developed any command to realize it.

Similarly, Shealy had been a slugger in the Rockies minor leagues but was already 26 and closing in on 27 without a real spot on the Rockies (think of him as a 2006 Clint Robinson). In two months with the Royals that year, he hit seven homers and a .280/.338/.451 line. It looked good going into 2007 and the Royals figured he’d be the everyday first baseman. He struggled and was demoted to Omaha at the end of June. He didn’t resurface until September 2008 and was on his way out of the Royals organization.

2B – Cookie Rojas (1970)

After those first two, it’s nice to have the chance to highlight a very good pickup at the deadline. On June 13, 1970, the Royals sent Fred Rico to the Cardinals and got Rojas in return.

Rico played in 12 games for the inaugural Royals team in 1969. It was the only major league experience he ever had.

Rojas only made four All-Star teams as a Royal and was inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame in 1987.

SS – Neifi Perez (2001)

It’s bad enough that the Royals traded for Perez. That’s a big problem to start with – he was Yuniesky Betancourt before Yuni was Yuni. And he didn’t have any of the pop. He was positive defensively, but with an OPS+ of 64 for his career, his defensive ability only made him a replacement level player at best.

The Royals traded Jermaine Dye for him on July 25.

Ouch. (I wanted to put Jeff Keppinger here, but honestly, Neifi’s a better story.)

3B – Dean Palmer (1997)

We covered the other half of this deal, as the Royals sent the speedy Tom Goodwin to Texas for Palmer on July 25.

Palmer fit into the Royals lineup as a power hitter, and he hit nine  homers in the 49 games he spent with the Royals during the rest of the 1997 season. He was even better in 1998, hitting 34 homers in his only full season with the Royals. Palmer is one of very few Royals hitters who’ve hit 30 homers in a season and the third most in team history. He left for Detroit after becoming a free agent and played parts of five seasons with them.

OF – Gregor Blanco (2010)

When the Royals traded Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel on July 31, they got Tim Collins and Jesse Chavez as well as Blanco.

During the remainder of the 2010 season, Blanco hit 203 plate appearances and played mostly in center, adding good contact, defense and strike zone judgment to the team. There was some talk that he might end up the opening day center fielder in 2011, but the Royals signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera while also having Mitch Maier and Jarrod Dyson in the mix. Then they acquired Lorenzo Cain. Blanco was traded to Washington for cash but didn’t get back to the majors until this season, where he’s been a solid reserve for the Giants.

Also, he did this:

OF – Chip Ambres (2005)

Ambres was acquired with Juan Cedeno from Boston on July 19, 2005 for infielder Tony Graffanino. He was almost a league average outfielder that season and had 12 extra base hits. He only played 80 career games in the big leagues, including 53 for the Royals.

OF – Abraham Nunez (2004)

The Royals haven’t acquired many good outfielders at the deadline, have they? Nunez was acquired on the last day of July in 2004 for Rudy Seanez. He didn’t play in the majors after 2004 as a Royal. He and Jeff D’Amico hold the distinction of not being THAT Abraham Nunez (former Pirate, Cardinal and Phillie from 1997-2008) and not being THAT Jeff D’Amico (former Brewer, Pirate, Met and Indian from 1996-2004; the other D’Amico was part of the Kevin Appier trade in 1999).

SP – Charlie Leibrandt (1983)

The Royals sent Bob Tufts to the Reds on June 7, 1983 and got Leibrandt back. Tufts had thrown 26.2 innings for the Royals when he was traded. He never pitched for the Reds.

Leibrandt only went on to finish fifth in Cy Young voting in 1985 and threw 1257 innings from 1984 to 1989 with Kansas City. He was the starting pitcher in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, and held the Cardinals to one run in 7.2 innings to keep the Royals in position to make the historic comeback. He also had a solid start that fell apart in Game 2 but ate up 8.2 innings in that one.

RP – Stan Belinda (1993)

Belinda was an average arm in the Pirates bullpen and with the Royals in second place and four games behind on July 31, 1993, made a nice target at the deadline. In return the Pirates got Jon Lieber and Dan Miceli, both of whom went on to long careers in the big leagues. Miceli appeared in 631 games. Lieber fit the bill of a league average, middle of the rotation starter for years, making 327 starts, most with the Pirates and Cubs.

Belinda had an 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 1993 for the Royals down the stretch, though they never made up the ground to take the division. He wasn’t nearly as good in 1994 for the Royals though, and bounced around until 2000.

Other Notable Royals Trade Deadline Acquisitions:

• Jeff Keppinger (2006)
• Odalis Perez (2006)
• Kyle Davies (2007)
• Justin Huber (2004)
• Graeme Lloyd (2003)
• Jorge De La Rosa (2006)
• Will Smith (2010)
• Tim Collins (2010)
• Curt Leskanic (2003)
• Jason Grimsley (1997)
• Luis Aquino (1987)

The Royals bullpen is supposed to be the strength of its pitching staff, and if you review almost any pitching statistic, you’ll find this is true.  And who should be the cream of the crop in this group?  The closer of course.  The closer should dominate opposing batters, intimidating them into submission during the final inning of a game.  While Broxton’s ERA has been solid, by almost every other measurement you’ll discover that he is teetering on the brink and in my opinion his luck may run out soon.

Of the Royals five most often used relief pitchers (including Aaron Crow, Jose Mijares, Kelvin Herrera, and Tim Collins) Broxton possesses the highest WHIP, the lowest strikeout ratio, and the most H/9 (hits per 9 innings.)  This type of performance will eventually impact his luck-induced ERA performance and will result in runs scored, lots of them.  When Broxton waddles to the mound, the only hearts he strikes fear into are in the pounding chests of nervous Royals fans.

I'm just not that into you Jonathan Broxton (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Maybe this is a little bit shallow of me to say, but I prefer my team’s players at least have the appearance of athleticism and not wear pants that two teammates can fit inside.  Broxton looks more like a reject from a Tommy Boy casting call than a professional baseball player.  And I know it’s results that count, not appearance, but really…  Broxton’s body is his tool, it’s what allows him to be a major league pitcher.  If he was a serious athlete who truly wanted to excel, he’d drop 100 pounds and get himself in shape.

Broxton’s performance is like a locomotive whose wheels are coming off, but it just hasn’t jumped the track yet.  He’s a train wreck waiting to happen.

I attended one of the recent interleague games in Houston and had a chance to watch Broxton and the other pitchers take a few swings in the batting cage during pregame warmups.  There was a lot of discussion about a few balls that Broxton sent into the left field seats and off the outfield wall.  It was a pretty impressive display – for a pitcher.  But I still don’t think any of the fans who were oohing and aahing at his hitting prowess were excited at the prospect of watching Broxton and his lifetime .000 batting average step into the box.  Can you imagine Jonathan hitting a ground ball to the shortstop and trying to “leg it out.”  The mental image is jarring.

The good news is that there is a solution to this problem.  I recommend the Royals point to Broxton’s stellar ERA, his track record as an All-Star closer, package him with Jeff Francoeur (sorry Frenchy, I love ya, but you have to go – #FreeWil) and try to get something, anything, in return before they both implode and lose all their value.

Dayton Moore should take some time out during the All-Star festivities, visit with his General Manager buddies that attend the game, and find a new home for both of these guys.  Frenchy has value as a clubhouse leader & goodwill ambassador, and Broxton could potentially be a decent 7^th inning guy – that has to be worth something.

The time is now Dayton.  Find a deal, pull the trigger, cut our losses before Broxton and Frenchy lose their value, and let’s move forward to the future with Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera as our closer.

Vin Mazzaro gets the start in the opener against the Cardinals as the I-70 Series shifts to Kauffman Stadium this weekend. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Records: St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) @ Kansas City Royals (31-36)

Season Series: Royals 2-1 (won series in St. Louis June 15-17)
June 15 – Kansas City 3-2               WP: V. Mazzaro                LP: K. Lohse        S: J. Broxton
June 16 – St. Louis 10-7                   WP: M. Boggs                    LP: T. Collins       S: J. Motte
June 17 – Kansas City 5-3 F/15     WP: J. Broxton                 LP: E. Sanchez

Recap of last weekend: In game one the Royals took a 3-0 lead on the Cardinals before St. Louis scored twice in the seventh innings. Jonathan Broxton had an adventurous ninth before Mike Moustakas threw out Tyler Green at home to end the game. On Saturday the Cardinals won 10-7, the home team roughed up Bruce Chen taking a 6-1 lead after two innings. KC stormed by scoring the next six-runs taking a 7-6 lead in the seventh before the Redbirds countered with three in the bottom of the inning. The finale on Father’s Day went 15-innings with the Royals winning 5-3 when Yuniesky Betancourt hit a two-run homer in the top of the fifteenth inning.

Since they last they met: KC went to Houston and took 2-of-3 against the Astros after losing the first game of the series. St. Louis traveled to Detroit in a rematch of the 2006 World Series but lost the series to the Tigers two games to one, winning the middle game.

Central Standings:
AL Central                                                           NL Central
Cleveland Indiana (36-32)                             Cincinnati Reds (38-30)
Chicago White Sox (36-33)           0.5          Pittsburgh Pirates (36-32)             2.0
Detroit Tigers (34-35)                     2.5          St. Louis Cardinals (35-35)             4.0
Kansas City Royals (31-26)            4.5          Milwaukee Brewers (32-37)        6.5
Minnesota Twins (27-41)              9.0          Houston Astros (28-41)                 10.5
Chicago Cubs (24-45)                      14.5

Sal is back!: Tonight Salvador Perez will make his 2012 season debut for the Kansas City Royals. In addition ex-Royal Carlos Beltran is back at the K for the first time but wearing red and white. Beltran in his career is a .299, with 60 homeruns, 268 RBIs and 95 stolen bases at the Kauffman Stadium.

Turning it around at home: Kansas City is 11-20 at home this season but did sweep the Brewers in their quick three-game home stand last week. Since starting 0-10, the Royals have played better winning six of their last nine at home.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Joe Kelly (0-0, 2.89) v. Vin Mazzaro (3-1, 2.57)
Saturday, 1:10 pm – Adam Wainwright (5-7, 4.46) v. Luis Mendoza (2-3, 4.69)
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.80) v. Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.70)

“It takes a different kind of skillset to play baseball. You don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball.”

Originally this was supposed to be a post about Kyle Zimmer and why I love the pick, and the potential of the athlete, so much. I was going to break down his delivery and his stuff (with some help from some Internet friends) and project his future from my rather limited perception of him. However after overhearing what I was sure was just a father repeating some Neanderthal narrative about how the kind of physical shape baseball players are in, I couldn’t think of anything else.

In that instant amidst, Tweeting something obnoxious and having our grocery list recited to me, my brain called an audible and I couldn’t get the phrase “you don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball” out of my head. I was stuck.

Everything that I had ever fought, every traditional mindset, every head-in-the-sand nonsensical outlook on the training of pitchers and baseball players was summed up in that father’s seemingly insignificant sentence.

Too often people confuse athleticism with strength or the ability to jump high, or run fast. Those traits do play a role in being an athlete for sure, but to mischaracterize baseball players as “non athletes” or “not very athletic” because you don’t see them at an NFL-style combine in their underwear running and jumping does not mean they’re not athletes. They’re some of the best athletes.

Baseball is a stagnant sport. There’s lots of standing around, lots of explosive movements required from a standing start, and lots of hip flexibility and reactionary skills that a “non athlete” couldn’t do. Do not confuse physical shape, or how a player looks with how athletic he is.

As I mentioned on the podcast I was on recently, in my opinion the true definition of athleticism is how well someone controls his or her body.

In order to generate the necessary torque to throw a baseball or swing a bat, the level of body control to fire reflexes and the body sequencing required to turn on a 99 mph fastball to hit it 400 feet is super athletic. The ability to repeat pitching mechanics to generate high velocities with control is super athletic.

Stop it with the idea that baseball players aren’t athletes. And if you’re having this opinion, please don’t repeat it out loud, there might be someone the next table over who just wants to enjoy a quiet night with his wife.

The Good

Well, winning is a lot more fun than losing. After the horrific start culminating in a 12 game losing streak, the Royals have been one of the better teams in baseball (at least record wise) and have pulled themselves to within 5 games of the division lead. How’s about that?

In the Rant a couple weeks ago I said that June (admittedly an idea stolen from someone else) would be a huge month for the Royals because the schedule turned in their favor, and the offense couldn’t be that bad for very long. Well, the offense still isn’t great, but with Alex Gordon going all on-base machine since returning to the leadoff spot, the offense has turned things around to help the bullpen win some games.

Yes, the bullpen.

Because, this is going to be the theme of the entire season, the bullpen continues to be amazing. Simply. Amazing.

Led by Tim Collins (imagine that visual) the revolving door of the final three-to-four spots in the bullpen haven’t been as big a detriment as one would normally associate with the taxi squad. Stability in Collins, Aaron Crow, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Mijares, and now Greg Holland, has allowed the Royals to not only stay in games to come back to win late, but have logged multiple innings to protect leads.

For all the negative things I’ve said about Dayton Moore’s roster construction over the last year-and-a-half on this site, one big positive has been his ability to put together a bullpen. And this year, he’s done one helluva job.

The Bad

For all the talk about Billy Butler not being “clutch”, and for all the talk about how Billy Butler doesn’t drive in runs, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot being said about how Jeff Francoeur only has 18 RBI, and we’re more than two months into the season.

Sure there are some things to like about Francoeur’s game like his arm or his occasional hot streaks, but his negative points get overshadowed by the media perception of him being such a great guy/baseball player, for what really only amounts to him having a recognizable name.

While I don’t pay much attention to stats with runners in scoring position they’re still fun to look at, especially when they can be manipulated to prove the point I’m trying to make.

During his career Francoeur has hit .270/.325/.419 with runners in scoring position. For Butler, during his career, he has hit .309/.392/.471 with runners in scoring position.

You know what’s great about those numbers? With runners in scoring position Butler’s stats are actually better than his career numbers (.297/.360/.462), contrary to what the narrative would have you to believe because of some arbitrary RBI total.

I only bring this up because the highly esteemed, and incredibly readable Jeff Parker brought up yesterday how during the broadcast, the Royals announcers went completely out of their way to talk about how Butler went a stretch of eight games without registering an RBI. Meanwhile, as Jeff pointed out, nothing is ever said of Francoeur for what he doesn’t do well.

This isn’t yet another way to sneak a Butler post into a post about something else (or maybe it is), and this is probably much to do about nothing. The reason Butler gets so much scrutiny from fans and the Royals might be because he has the potential to be one of the very best hitters in baseball (he already is), and the reason Francoeur skates by with nary a word of his deficiencies is because he has the potential to be merely one of the very average players in baseball (he already is).

Francoeur shouldn’t be given the pass that he seemingly is, and he shouldn’t have his spot in the lineup granted to him without competition, also like he seemingly is.

Jeff Francoeur is what he’s always been: a player that should probably be platoon-only as a lefty-masher that plays some decent defense. And if he’s the reason for either a) keeping Wil Myers in Triple-A or b) forcing Wil Myers to a position he mostly can’t handle everyday at the major league level, then the Royals need to find a different reason.

The Upcoming

It would be foolish not to mention the weekend home series against the Cardinals, but I’m sure we’ll have enough of that here over the course of the week to more than fill the readers’ appetite.

What has to be mentioned though is how the Royals are this close to playing really meaningful games again, and despite the depletion of the bullpen and the lack of production from the rotation, six more against NL opponents and three of those being against a team that on paper they’re better than (Houston), leaves even me optimistic.

And for me, that’s saying something. This is starting to get really fun.

Last week on Twitter I was challenged to write 7,500 words on Yuniesky Betancourt and why he isn’t the best option for the Royals to be playing second base. I’m sure I could come up with a few descriptive things to say about Betancourt, and I’m sure if pressed into action, I could come up with 7,500 on why he shouldn’t be on the Royals roster. I’m sure of it. But there’s little reason to go there now, that horse has been beaten dead for a while.

The first acquisition of Betancourt via trade was at least justifiable from the standpoint of there not being any other shortstop in the system capable of playing the position, and there was at least some buy low characteristics of the deal. In the end, it wouldn’t prove to be a complete disaster because at the very least Betancourt’s ability to stay healthy allowed the Royals to buy time to find his replacement.

The second acquisition last offseason made little-to-no-sense given his history as a below-average defensive shortstop, his history with the Royals as a negative-2.1fWAR(!) in 2009* and 0.9 fWAR in 2010, and the Royals really already had someone on the roster capable of doing what he does in Johnny Giavotella. Oh, that, and he creates a whole lot of outs offensively.

*Admittedly part of that season was with Seattle

Sure the fans were told that Betancourt was only being acquired to be a backup (which was a laughable argument) and that good backups cost money, especially ones that were coming off a year they were starters. The Betancourt signing was simply a move to create depth on the major league roster.

Flash forward to today and because of the injury to Chris Getz, Betancourt has supplanted Johnny Giavotella as the normal second baseman. The problem with Betancourt receiving most of the playing time isn’t so much that he’s actually playing, it’s that he’s getting the majority of his plate appearances by batting second in the order. No seriously.

We know enough now through lineup studies that the batting order holds less significance than we originally thought in terms of where guys bat, but the one caveat to that is that at the very least, batters at the top of the order have to make less outs than players at the bottom, because they will bat the most often. It’s pretty simple.

Betancourt will enter tomorrow night’s game with a .309 OBP on the season, and a career on-base percentage of .292.

Two. Ninety. Two.

No matter what you think a No.2 hitter looks like, or having one that can do all the “little things”, there is no hitter in baseball that can make up for having a .292 on-base percentage and be valuable batting second. It just doesn’t happen.

The subject of Betancourt’s playing time, or even his roster spot, has probably been hashed around enough at this point that there’s probably little need to go further than that. Any argument to Betancourt’s viability can immediately be countered with “.292”, and the argument would be over.

That wasn’t quite 7,500 words, but I think the point still remains: Betancourt’s playing time should still be strictly as a backup, if at all, if he can’t avoid making so many outs.

The Good

Well, the bullpen. And the bullpen. Have I mentioned the bullpen?

The Royals bullpen has thrown the most innings in all of baseball this year and has the sixth best ERA. That’s doin’ somethin’.

Led by Tim Collins, one of the strengths heading into the year has really been just that. The worry of course is how long they can keep it up.

At 225 innings through the team’s first 58 games, it’s hard to imagine the group either a) staying effective for a full season or b) not having multiple guys breakdown with injuries. The starting rotation was known to be the weak link of the roster to start the season, but I don’t think there’s anyone that could have foreseen this bad a performance, and it’s putting a lot of pressure on the bullpen to log so many innings.

If the group could keep up this production for a full season, given the workload, it would be nothing short of remarkable. Though, as good as the bullpen has been, I think everyone wishes they’d been called upon a little (a lot) less.

The Bad

While it would be nice to write about a 12 for 18, 3 homeruns, 3 doubles week for Alex Gordon, hereby officially busting him out of his year long no-power funk, I am not and the offense continues to struggle. What was thought to be one of the major strengths of this team coming into the season has proven, yet again, to be a major annoyance as there’s been no consistency, and the same hack-away style at the plate and give-away style on the bases approach is still being implemented.

The numbers have been beaten to death at this point but they always bear repeating: the Royals are 7^th in the American League in batting average (.258), 11^th in on-base percentage (.314), 12^th in wOBA (.309), and 13^th in runs (224). That 13^th place ranking in runs, mind you, is only ahead of the Oakland A’s, who consistently get made fun of for how bad they are offensively.

So what’s to blame? At this point in the season it’s too late to continue to fall back on the lack of production from Gordon or Eric Hosmer, or the injuries to Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain. Remember, there were doubts a year ago of Cain’s ability to hit at the major league level, and there have always been doubts of his being able to stay healthy. That isn’t to say giving him the starting centerfield position was a bad idea – in many ways it was the right call – there just should have been a better option to replace him than Jarrod Dyson if the need arose. Which is was almost assuredly going to happen.

Even though the struggles of the two more potent bats in the lineup hurt, that isn’t necessarily the reason to the overall production of the lineup being so bad. The fundamental flaw of the Ned Yost era – or, in fairness, baseball in general – is the complete disregard for offensive outs and the willingness to give them away without contention.

This isn’t merely from a bunting perspective, which has been taken apart on this site as well as many others, but from a base running point of view where “aggressive base running” leads to far more harm than good. The Royals, metrically speaking, rank as the third-worst base running team in the American League, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a sign of that turning around, because the same mistakes keep happening.

Suffice it to say, if there’s a sarcastic hashtag named for you on Twitter (heh), there’s something you’re not doing right.

The Upcoming

It doesn’t get any easier this week. Last week I wrote that the Royals really had a chance to make some noise in the AL Central with their upcoming June schedule. That noise turned to a faint whimper as a 1-win, 5-loss stretch against Minnesota and Pittsburgh has ruined any good vibes there was entering the month. A very #Royaling feat indeed.

This week, it’s three at home against Milwaukee and three on the road against St. Louis. Oof.

Making things more interesting is a Zack Greinke v Luis Mendoza matchup tomorrow night that, on paper, looks more like playing MLB The Show 12 on the beginner level against a Triple-A call-up.

What will be fun to see is the over-reaction of fans to the “traitor” Greinke, and then the subsequent hyperbole if he does well – “Hey, he could have been doing that here, quitter!” – or if he does poorly – “See, he can’t handle the pressure, he’s too weak!” or “See, he’s not a true ace!” Either way, it should be interesting, and entirely predictable.

Before this week you could have made the argument that a six game stretch against the National League would be a huge benefit to the Royals, given how well the American League teams usually do during Interleague play. Now, given the pretty thorough dismantling at the hands of the Pirates, there are some doubts.

One thing Royals fans will see this week is stars (much like they did with Andrew McCutchen) and the impact those stars have on teams. It’s long been my contention that stars win championships, not “well rounded” players, because those great players can make up for the deficiencies of a couple average players. The Brewers have Greinke, and Ryan Braun; the Cardinals have Carlos Beltran (ugh), and whatever category you’d like to put Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in. The Royals are still trying to find theirs.

Even though stars don’t make the complete difference in baseball, they make a huge difference. And as long as the Royals are still searching for one, it’s going to make things a lot harder, and 1-5 stretches harder to avoid.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

Butler raised his season OPS to over .900, but what’s better is the 11 homeruns and we’re not through the month of May just yet. The power, which fans have always (wrongfully) used against Butler to tear down his offensive credibility, is starting to show. His season pace of 39 homeruns is probably unlikely, but it’s still nonetheless encouraging that the “professional hitter” is professionally slugging as well.

Not to be outdone in the victory was the outstanding work of the Kansas City bullpen after Luke Hochevar failed to make it through the fifth inning.

The Royals bullpen has been abused all year. Called upon to throw the most innings in baseball so far (and 12 more innings than the next closest team) it’s a wonder how the group can be as consistent as it has been.

Despite a worrisome 3.69 BB/9, the bullpen’s 3.28 ERA is tenth best in the Major Leagues, and when you consider how many innings they’ve thrown without ever having the benefit of a night off, that’s pretty impressive.

The star of the group? Tim Collins.

After battling control issues last year Collins has rebounded to start 2012 with 34 strikeouts in his first 22 1/3 innings, and he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 7 outings.

Jonathan Broxton earned save number 10, improving his trade value just a little bit more.

With the win the Royals improve to 19-27 on the season and pull within 6 ½ games of first place Cleveland, who just happens to be next on the schedule. It’s a dangerous dream to dream, but a good showing against Cleveland and then struggling Minnesota, and the Royals can start to make some noise in the standings.

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

Mazzaro threw five innings of good enough baseball, scattering seven hits and walking just one. He got through his first three innings unscathed and set the tone after the Royals put six runs on the board early.

The bullpen was stellar and held down a 7-4 win to give the Royals their fourth straight win and a 4-1 road trip.

The Royals took advantage of a shaky Colby Lewis early. Jarrod Dyson doubled to lead off and Eric Hosmer reached on a Lewis throwing error. Despite a Hosmer baserunning error and an RBI fielder’s choice by Billy Butler, the Royals put up four as Brayan Pena hit a two run single and Chris Getz added another run with a hit.

Dyson singled to lead off the second and scored on a Billy Butler double and a Mike Moustakas homer in the third staked the Royals to a 6-0 lead.

Mazzaro allowed two runs in the bottom of the fourth but escaped. A hit by Ian Kinsler and two stolen bases turned into a run in the fifth when Mazzaro got a sacrifice fly from Josh Hamilton (which is a victory the way he’s been hitting).

Then the bullpen took over.

Tim Collins made the Rangers look silly. Photo: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Tim Collins was as good as I’ve ever seen him, striking out five of the six batters he faced, including the first four. His curveball was filthy – Danny Duffy tweeted that it needed a doctor because it was sick – and he had great location. The only non-strikeout was a routine ground out. Aaron Crow worked a perfect eighth that included a strikeout of Hamilton and Jose Mijares got two quick outs in the ninth before Brandon Snyder hit a pinch-hit homer. With a 7-4 game, Greg Holland got the last out to finish off the Rangers.

The Royals took two out of three in Chicago and head home for a two game series against Baltimore and an interleague series with Arizona. They’ve built up some momentum and at 15-20, aren’t looking as bad as they had during their 12 game losing streak in the first three weeks of the season. They showed some fight and are only 4.5 games out of first place.

Eric Hosmer may be showing signs of breaking out of his slump, hitting a blast to left-center for a double and ripping a hard line drive up the middle for a single. He’s been hitting the ball hard most of the time. When it gets through, his numbers will start looking better.

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August 8, 2011; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

As we are nearing opening day, a few things should start to clear up.  There are some pieces to the puzzle the Royals still have to figure out, and it’s becoming a guessing game for their fans to try and solve as well.  One thing that is certain, is Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz will be platooning at second base to start the season.  This makes me question so many things, and the move has left a sour taste in the mouths of Royals diehards on Twitter .  In no way can this work in the Royals favor.  But I digress, there’s still many other questions to answer.  Who will be the lefty out of the bullpen?  Who will be the number four and five to fill out the rotation?  Also, who will be the next Royals closer in the wake of Joakim Soria needing his second Tommy John surgery?

Jose Mijares, Tim Collins, Everett Teaford, and Tommy Hottovy are all in the race to be the left-handed reliever out of the pen.  Three out of four of these pitchers have spotless ERAs and Collins has still managed a miniscule 1.08 ERA, at this time.  I think Mijares is the lead dog of the pack simply because he was brought in to be the go-to lefty.  Although, the other three guys are making their cases to start the year on the opening day roster as well.  It does seem possible to me, that two of these four could make the team but I would definitely say no more than that.

I don’t know about all of you, but I have been less than impressed by what I’ve seen out of the starters so far this spring.  I want to clarify that I’m aware the Royals aren’t anywhere near the Phillies or Angels in terms of starting pitching, but I was hoping they would be above adequate this spring.  Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza are the only two guys who have pitched extremely well and there is no guarantee Mendoza even makes the team as a starter.  Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino have all underperformed this spring and aren’t doing much to claim their spots in the rotation.  I know not much weight should be put into spring training stats, but the fact that Chen has given up 27 hits in 12 innings is very disheartening.  It would be nice if a few of these guys pitched like they wanted the job.  That being said, Paulino is pitching his way out and Mendoza is pitching his way into the rotation.  I believe Duffy will start out in the rotation and am looking for Sanchez and Chen to bounce back after very rough springs.  I do not think there is room for Paulino, Duffy, or Mendoza out of the bullpen, if that question comes up, as there is an abundance of arms already out there now.

The starting pitching has been a question mark all off season, but one thing we thought was certain, was the closer’s role.  With the news that Joakim Soria will undergo his second Tommy John surgery, the question remains, who will fill his shoes?  I say  Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, and Jonathan Broxton, in that order.  Holland has the dominating stuff and one of the best sliders in the game, so I feel extremely confident with him in the 9th.  Crow was bestowed upon as the closer for a short amount of time last season and Broxton is coming off some elbow issues but is still capable of returning to his former All-Star self.  I would be okay with any of these relievers, but I’m personally pulling for Holland.

We only have a few more weeks, if not sooner, before we get some of the answers to these questions.  Whatever happens though, I’m sure it will make for some great conversations and playful banter.  Either way, Opening Day is less than two weeks away!

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July 18, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Louis Coleman (46) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

These numbers just aren’t working out. It’s frustrating me because no matter how bad some of the Royals pitching staff has been, I’d like to keep the ones who have potential. So many of them have potential, but there’s simply not enough room.

Ned Yost has indicated that he would like to carry 12 pitchers and four bench players into the season. That means five starters and seven relievers, but however I slice it, a potentially valuable commodity gets left out. Actually, more than one.

It’s an unusual feeling for Royals fans, to feel like we have too much talent for one roster. I made a comment the other day on Twitter that the 2012 Omaha Storm Chaser bullpen might be the second best bullpen in baseball.

Here’s how it breaks down. I believe the five holdovers from last year’s starting rotation will win their jobs back; that leaves seven spots in the bullpen. Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, and Jose Mijares are all pretty much locked in. That leaves three spots for Aaron Crow (who Yost has indicated will stay in the bullpen if he can’t make the rotation), Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Luis Mendoza, Blake Wood, and Kelvin Herrera. The other candidates seemingly have no shot—and frankly, I don’t think Wood’s got much of a shot either.

Aaron Crow. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Six guys for three spots. Each guy brings something a little different to the table. Collins is another lefty. Crow has great strike out potential. Coleman’s a steady hand with good deception. Mendoza’s got versatility to throw multiple innings and start occasionally. Wood has the power sinker to get ground balls. And Herrera might have the best stuff of all of them. So, who gets left out? And more importantly, what are the ramifications of those decisions.

We have to assume at this point that Crow will get one of the remaining spots. Yost has essentially said as much. He was an All Star in the bullpen, and I think Yost doesn’t want to play with Crow’s confidence by sending him to AAA to work as a starter, which is what I think they should do. At some point, they will have to decide what they have in Crow and give him a chance to be that, whatever it is. If it’s a starter, they have to let him try to be a starter instead of shuffling him back and forth between roles.

Anyway, despite what one lowly, rotund blogger thinks, it looks like the Royals will give one of those bullpen spots to Crow. That leaves two. I’m pretty certain that Yost will want to carry more than one lefty in the pen. That means that as long as Collins isn’t terrible in the spring, he’ll get one of the spots. He was supposedly very effective in the intrasquad matchup, and people are raving about a mechanical adjustment that helped improved his command. We’ll see.

That leaves one spot for three talented pitchers … and Blake Wood (ZING!). Some are not as high on Mendoza as I am (if thinking a guy can excel in a swingman role is being “high” on him). I find value in a pitcher who can move between bullpen and rotation, throw some strikes, keep a team in a game, and who the team doesn’t have to worry about in terms of his future. The Royals can use Mendoza however they want. And he’s out of options, which along with his versatility, is the greatest point in his favor.

I have no answer for who gets the last spot. I don’t think it will be Wood or Herrera because Wood isn’t good enough and both have options. It comes down to Coleman or Mendoza. Coleman pitched very well last year. I like him a lot as a pitcher. But he can’t make a start if the Royals need him to, and he probably can’t take over in the third inning and bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen with three or four innings of work.

On the flip side, Mendoza isn’t as proven as Coleman. Michael Engel wrote a very scathing critique of Mendoza that pointed out his greatest flaw: he doesn’t strike out many hitters. Consequently, his numbers from AAA look a little deceiving. Coleman, on the other hand does strike guys out.

Ultimately, performance in the spring might decide this conundrum. But if all considered pitch well enough, the Royals have to ask themselves some tough questions. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, who fills the long relief role? It could be no one, but that might wear out the bullpen quickly. It could be Crow. But he’s never filled that role before, and they have his future to consider.  Also, he spent the last half-season being pretty ineffective. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, they probably lose Mendoza to the waiver wire.

If they choose Mendoza, they will gamble that he can sustain his performance from last season without the benefit of high strike out numbers.* It’s a pretty risky gamble, made slightly better by the Royals’ good defense. Note please that one of the criticisms of Mendoza is that he won’t be able to maintain his low BABIP from 2011, .268. By contrast, Coleman’s was .246. In fact, looking a little closer at the numbers makes Coleman’s season from last year look a little less shiny (4.30 FIP, 3.92 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9), just like Mendoza.

*I wrote this before Sunday’s game in which Mendoza and Herrera pitched very well.

I’m so torn about this decision, and I don’t even have to make it. Luckily, spring performance should help decide. But I’m going to do the ballsy thing and give my thoughts right now, before seeing a pitch.* If I had the choice to make, and I had to make it right now, I’m taking Mendoza. I think having someone to fill the swingman role is important with such a suspect rotation, and keeping Mendoza gives the Royals the chance to have both pitchers if they need them moving forward—say if Broxton gets traded midseason or someone gets hurt. If Mendoza is ineffective, they can cut him and bring Coleman up without too much damage being done.

*Again, I wrote this before Sunday’s game. Though it wasn’t on television so technically I still haven’t seen a pitch.

Feel free to openly criticize that decision and let me know who you would keep and why.

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Expect to keep seeing this quite a bit in 2012. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m going to repeat this once more (and for the last time), so if you’ve seen it before, skip ahead. Dayton Moore and the Royals have been busy this offseason. Not busy looking for starting pitchers and not busy looking for new bats. They’ve been busy finding the pieces to finish up their killer bullpen.

But really, there weren’t a lot of moves to be made. The Royals bullpen only increased by two members, as Jonathan Broxton became the new, well, whatever role he’ll supposedly fill and Jose Mijares became lefty insurance. There were lots of rumors about using the Broxton addition to move Joakim Soria and leave Greg Holland to closing, but that’s all in the past. Right now, we’re barely different than last year’s team. Let’s just get a quick recap of where that team stood in several categories with regards to the rest of the American League:

Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th (4.70)
Wins in Relief: 3rd (26)
Losses in Relief: 13th (26)
Save Percentage: 10th (63%)
Holds: 10th (58)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 2nd (25%)
Games Pitched on Zero Days Rest: 2nd lowest (56)
Average Outs Recorded Per Outing: 1st (3.6)

If you have any questions about those rankings, throw them out in the comments. All I know is this paints a very muddled picture. Was the bullpen good or bad? Was it good or bad as a result of how rough the rotation was? Can we really blame the bullpen when they had quite a bit of work over the course of the year due to that rotation?

What it seems like to me is that they did a respectable job with the hand they were dealt. Manager Ned Yost didn’t overwork them too badly, though the consecutive days stat could be biased a bit toward one or two pitchers. I had no idea that they had done so well with inherited runners, but the fact that they allowed that many runs, compiled that many losses, and blew that many saves makes me reconsider my acclaim at their success. Of course, as the season wore on, young arms got tired and handing the ball to the bullpen became less of a sure thing. Nonetheless, how can we think about this bullpen going into 2012? Are they truly killers?

Well, I pulled out three projection systems for 10 pitchers that could (or should) be a part of the 2012 bullpen. I’ll use ZiPS, Bill James, and RotoChamp to get three different perspectives. And I’ll try to show them in a way that’s not totally confusing, using their 2010 and 2011 lines alongside their projections to get an idea of what we’re seeing.

Let’s start with Joakim Soria because, well, who else do you start with when you think of the Royals’ bullpen?

For the most part, projections show a return to form from 2011 and more of what we expect from Soria. And I see no reason to debate that, as he’s shown us he can stick in there when healthy, so let’s leave it at that. Soria is a stable player for the bullpen.

We’ll turn to Jonathan Broxton next.

Broxton’s going to be an interesting one to watch. After being nails for the Dodgers earlier in his career, he started to falter the last couple, including a bruised elbow that sidelined him for most of 2011. Between that and the move to the AL, it’s hard to get a read on how he’ll perform. All signs point to him being healthy for 2012 and ready to pitch for the Royals, however. And all three projection systems show that in their analysis. While they’re more bullish on Broxton than I am (or than I expected them to be), I think we can expect solid numbers from Broxton. And if he can pitch consistently throughout the season, he could be a crucial piece for close games in late innings.

Greg Holland

Everyone expects a little regression from Holland’s ridiculously good 2011 campaign. His BABIP last season was .250, which is plenty low and offsets the 3.77 he found himself with in 2010. Settling at a midpoint seems like a good idea, and that’s what the projections have done. I expect Holland to sit closer to the RotoChamp projection than the others, however, even though their hits/9 is a little low. Holland will still be a crucial piece of the bullpen, but maybe not quite as amazing as he was last season. The battle between him, Coleman, and Broxton for the “set-up role” will be one that could go all season if Holland doesn’t end up replacing Soria as the closer should Soria get injured.*

*Knock on wood. Every piece of wood. Even Blake Wood.

Blake Wood

I’ll be honest and say that I have no idea what to expect from Wood. He was extremely frustrating to see pitch at times, but surprisingly productive at other times. And I guess that just means we should expect something similar to last year. Every projection system shows some amount of regression, but I’d expect Wood to sit around an ERA of 4 and to be neither great nor horrible, providing solid relief when you least expect it and poor relief when you need outs. This all leans on him making the roster, of course, but he should be a likely candidate unless he spoils it for himself in Spring Training.

Louis Coleman

Coleman was the guy that always made me think he was right there the whole time, just about ready to break free, but restrained by his high home run numbers. He still had an amazing season considering he missed almost a month of the season and will be another important piece of the bullpen in 2012. I would guess he can take a step forward on those home runs numbers while staying roughly constant in every other way. Bill James’ projection seems to be the closest for me, showing exactly that. With a step forward in the home run area for Coleman, the back four righties of the bullpen (Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman) should be a formidable set for opposing lineups to face as they try to rally.

Aaron Crow

For whatever reason, Bill James didn’t project Crow, but it doesn’t matter. I see Crow regressing a bit, sticking closer to his late-season numbers than his initial ones, but he can still be an important part of the bullpen. We have some projection issues here, as RotoChamp saw Crow as a starter, but the numbers are similar nonetheless. I think the ZiPS projection is a bit bearish, but Crow should maintain his strikeouts and potentially his walks as well, staying roughly in the same point as he was last year. Like Coleman, if Crow can cut his home run numbers a bit, he’ll make it into that upper tier of relievers. But he’ll still be a useful arm nonetheless. And if they’re thinking about trying him as a starter, he could become a middle relief sort of guy, as Wood might be the only other useful righty candidate for such a role. The prognosis? Still useful, but maybe less of the early Crow and more of the later Crow.

Kelvin Herrera

I’m really intrigued by Herrera’s chances, as he could either go the Jeremy Jeffress route or he could stick as another strong righty reliever. If you’re counting at home, that would mean the Royals would have seven average-to-great righty relievers in their bullpen, so I don’t know if we can count on them all making it. But Herrera has shown strong numbers in the minors, flashing a 1.60 ERA in 2011 across high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a September call-up to Kansas City. He usually strikes out about 9/9 IP, and while that should continue this year, I expect closer to 8/9 IP. Like Wood, Herrera’s case probably hinges on his Spring Training performance, but his existence alone exhibits why the Royals have a good reason to rely on their deep, deep bullpen.

And on to the lefties.

Tim Collins

Collins will be another interesting one, as he seemed to be fatigued by the time the season ended. He pitched in 68 games, eight more than Soria and 11 more than Crow, which likely contributed to that fatigue. And Yost seemed to be content with (over)using Collins no matter his fatigue. Collins has some legitimate competition in Jose Mijares this Spring Training, with Everett Teaford also available, so the team won’t have to rely on him quite as much. Still, more competition is better than less, and Collins will at least have to perform or be sent down, hopefully keeping the bullpen stocked with a capable left-handed reliever.

Jose Mijares

Mijares is a guy that I vouched for when the Royals signed him. It’s definitely good to try many options, and, as I said above, it gives a bit of insurance and competition for Collins. Mijares was a great reliever for the Twins a few years back, but his weight and other issues led to less use and less productivity as the seasons wore on until Minnesota dropped him this offseason. It’s a good flyer to take on a guy that could be a huge boost should he return to form. And if he doesn’t do that, no harm, no foul. Collins and Teaford, plus Mike Montgomery or other lefty prospects, could fill that role.

Everett Teaford

Teaford’s another guy that got some partial projections as a starter, but he should only exist as a spot starter and mostly as a lefty reliever option. He’ll also have to fight his way onto the roster, and he’s probably less likely to make the roster than Collins and maybe Mijares. I think Teaford was a bit lucky last season, but he’s got the ability to put in about what Bill James’ projection shows when the Royals need him. It’s just another sign of the depth this season.

What we can really take from this, as I’ve said before, is that the Royals have considerably more depth and insurance in their bullpen for 2012 than they did going into 2011. There are more players than can ably contribute when needed, and that should make it easier to keep the bullpen performing all year. As some prospects move forward, there should only be more options, allowing for extreme selectivity going forward. Even though Broxton’s contract is only a year, this all points to the team being prepared for a great bullpen for many, many years as they approach the start of their window of competition.

So, while the bullpen was a great point of strength in 2011, it should be as strong or stronger in 2012 given the number of options and the players’ performance in previous seasons. The projection systems are understandably mixed, but even with some of their lower projections, the bullpen will be solid for this season. Considering how they ranked in some categories last season, there’s room for improvement. And there should be improvement.

Of course, the wild card in all of this is new pitching coach Dave Eiland. He may change the pitching strategies of some younger players, and we’ll have to keep track of any changes in performance or style from 2011 to 2012. Just another thing to keep in mind.

Has Moore built a “killer bullpen” for 2012? Well, yes and no. He didn’t add much to build that bullpen. But it also didn’t need a ton of additions to become a killer. Broxton and Mijares should only add depth in two areas where competition and number of options will only help the team to stay in it throughout 2012. And with a rotation that’s questionable and difficult to project, having a strong bullpen with many potential members can only be a good thing.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

With that notion in mind, now seems as good a time as any to break down the 40 man roster and rank them in descending order. I’ll rank the roster based on my expectations for the 2012 season; it is my position that 2011 is old news and therefore will serve as a mere afterthought during this breakdown.

Enjoy.

Royals 40 Man Roster Rankings:

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Whether it exists or not is unclear (but there have been articles), but I’ll be on watch to see what a second season does to Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, to Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Aaron Crow, and Danny Duffy. So, I wondered what we should expect for those players. I just did a brief search and my findings are described after the jump.

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He first appeared in the majors 2008, when he posted a 0.87 ERA in 10 appearances for the Minnesota Twins. The next season was his best, as Mijares recorded a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings, while striking out 55. But that was the high water mark. Mjiares threw only 32.2 (albeit solid) innings in 201o, sporting a 3.31 ERA, and then saw his strikeout rate dip dramatically in 2011 at the same time that his ERA soared to 4.59.

All this to say that Mijares isn’t, and won’t be, a miracle worker. But there are reasons to believe that his addition will prove valuable.

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Jose Mijares is moving south. (AP Photo)

The Royals announced today that they’ve signed lefty reliever Jose Mijares, formerly a pain in the Royals’ collective side during his time with the Twins. There haven’t been any details of the deal just yet, but I would guess it’s simply a one-year deal that helps to shore up the “killer bullpen” that’s apparently been a goal this offseason.

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George Sherrill, former closer for Baltimore, has a career 3.68 ERA in 323 innings. Over that span, he’s produced rates of 8.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. He’s generally been good at avoiding home runs and doesn’t give up a lot of hits, but his 2010 was disappointing and saw his walkrate climb while his strikeout rate diminished. In 2011, he pitched 36 innings with Atlanta as a 36-year-old and rebounded, striking out 9.5 per nine innings and walking just three per nine innings.

He has the expected advantage against left-handed batters, something that Collins never demonstrated last year, as lefties actually performed a little bit better against him than right-handed batters. In the minors, he never showed a consistent advantage against lefties, either.

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• Royals vs. the Word (Series) – Ryan Wood
• Youth in Revolt: The 2011 Kansas City Royals (June) - Ethan Evans
• Speaking to the Old School Folks - Gage Matthews
• Free Agent Watch: Roy Oswalt - Kevin Scobee
• Five reasons towards 2012 Royal failure - Mitch Hall
• Making a Pitch: Part II (James Shields Edition) - Brett Christie
• So It Goes: Another Baseball Season Passes - Michael Engel
• Negative Space - Ryan Wood
• Ryan Lefebvre – Gone - Michael Engel
• Youth in Revolt: The 2011 Kansas City Royals (July) - Ethan Evans

In the case of Tim Collins, there’s a very good reason for that – no other pitcher made more appearances than the diminutive Collins who led the team with 68.

He accumulated 66 innings and a 3.63 ERA. But, as always, numbers don’t always tell the whole story.

Clipped from: kingsofkauffman.com (share this clip)

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It’s just the way life works. It’s the same with religion or politics or science or whatever you want. There are always certain folks that either can’t wrap their minds around a new concept or don’t want to accept that what they’ve believed all this time has been wrong. So, they reject the new information.

I’m not one to tell people what to think. Or, at least I try not to do so. Instead, I want to talk about how to discuss the current Royals with these folks. How do you get across the improvements the team is making and the abilities of some of the players on the field without using newer stats? Well, I gave it a shot…

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The Royalman Report, LIVE Sundays at 7 pm CST

Wednesday marked the end of the Royals season as Bruce Chen faced the Twins in Minnesota.  While the game was going on, the Royalman Report was stationed in the middle of Kelly’s Westport Inn in Kansas City.

There were all sorts of antics as Soundtrack of the Week was on hand for a special edition of their podcast, including a game show to giveaway some prizes.  Then the Royalman Report took over to talk about Bubba Starling, thoughts on the season, thoughts on next year and we also had a few friends drop by, including former Kings of Kauffman staff writer Jeff Herr, Fake Ned Yost, and 610 Sports host Danny Parkins.

Just a note – Soundtrack of the Week isn’t exactly safe for work (but they lend us their equipment! – kidding guys), so listen accordingly.  You might want headphones, and if colorful language is not your thing, I will not blame you for abstaining from this episode.

Click the embedded player below to listen to this week’s show or you can download the mp3 here.

If you want your business featured during breaks on the Royalman Report, contact us at 816-394-9578 or email royalmanreport@gmail.com.  

Kelly's in Westport - official sponsor of the Royalman Report

If you’re the type that prefers to see the in-studio video stream…check it out below:

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In a busy month, Dayton Moore traded off Alberto Callaspo, Kyle Farnsworth, Rick Ankiel and Scott Podsednik (he later shipped off Jose Guillen in August).  Turning over 20% of a team’s active roster over the span of a couple of weeks isn’t common, but it happens with rebuilding teams.   I don’t imagine it’s something a GM sets out to do before the season starts.

Until, at least, 2011.

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 As I’ve mentioned before, I live in an area of Missouri where it’s pretty difficult to actually get to watch the Royals on the tube so I’m often forced to watch the gamecasts from the website. The Royals website has significantly improved this experience this season, but it’s still not quite the same as getting to watch games. Sadly enough, the week we’ve had has been hard enough to watch on the gamecast, let alone in real time. After we got swept by the Orioles, I determined that it would just be too painful for me to write anything about the current state of the team this week. So I decided to go a different direction. (more…)

Neither were the case on Tuesday.

The Royals mustered just one run on a fourth inning Melky Cabrera homer and otherwise did very little against Freddy Garcia and the Yankees bullpen.  In the last three innings, the Royals struck out five times, including two consecutive caught looking by Cabrera and Alex Gordon to lead off the eighth inning.

Despite that, opportunities were there.

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O’Sullivan ran into some trouble in the first as he walked Coco Crisp and gave up a walk to David DeJesus. After Sean managed to get Conor Jackson to fly out, Hosmer was faced with his first defensive test. Hideki Matsui hit a sharp grounder right to Hosmer who calmly fielded the ball on a knee and threw to second before recieving a return throw for a bang-bang 3-6-3 double play. I wanted Hos to get involved early, but I was thinking more along the lines of a nice soft grounder to second or the pitcher maybe, where he could recieve an easy throw and kind of get into the flow. He didn’t look fazed by Matsui’s grounder though and made a slick-looking MLB play on it and got the fans at Kauffman excited early. (more…)

The offensive onslaught included back to back homers in the bottom of the fifth inning.

It was more than enough offense for Omaha as four pitchers shut out Iowa, limiting them to three hits.  Danny Duffy led the way with six innings pitched, striking out eight in the process.  He allowed one hit, a shot off the glove of Johnny Giavotella.

Okay.

Fine.

I’ll talk about the Indians game.

Coming in, the Royals had lost five straight since leaving Kansas City with a 12-7 record.  The skid threatened to put them under .500 since being 0-1 after opening day.

Just like in the last two games in Cleveland, the Royals stumbled out of the gate.

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After giving up eight homers to the Rangers in Arlington, the first game at Progressive Field featured more longballs.  The Indians hit five on Tuesday.  The first three were solo shots and didn’t do much damage, but they were also from the last two spots in the order.

Still, going into the seventh, the Royals were down just 4-3.

Then Luke Hochevar came back out for one more inning.

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You’ve heard of the Magna Carta, but may not be as familiar with the struggles between classes in feudal Europe that played a role in building to that event.

The Declaration of Independence (rightly) stands out, but not as many are as concerned with remembering the accounts of British intrusion on businesses and homes that bubbled up later until the Boston Tea Party and other notable dates.

It’s a way of simplifying things. Cut and dry.

Results typically don’t develop that easily.  It takes numerous small situations to reach a goal.

Baseball is no different.  Teams are known by their stars, not by their role players.  That’s just how it goes.  You pay attention to the big names, but the little moves still count.  In the context of the Royals, we’re all awaiting for Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers, but we may be overlooking part of the Process that is already falling into place.

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It was a bit of a different story this week.

In two series, the Royals went 2-5, including their first series loss, a three game sweep at the hands of the Rangers.

Some of the breaks the Royals got in the first two weeks weren’t happening this week, but it wasn’t all bad.  Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur extended hitting streaks, Mike Aviles and Kila Ka’aihue woke up (a bit) after early struggles.  And Kyle Davies – dare I say it – looked like a real major league starter.

But 2-5 is still 2-5 and excepting a walk-off win on Thursday, they could have come away with just one win.  We’ll see why after looking at the numbers:

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After seven innings, Hochevar had been chased from the game, giving up six runs.

Um, ouch.

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Backed up by some great defense and working out of a couple of jams, O’Sullivan went five innings, shutting out a feeble Mariners offense.  The bullpen combo of Tim Collins, Jeremy Jeffress and Aaron Crow came in for the final four innings, striking out six and maintaining the shutout.

The Royals have now won four in a row and are 10-4.

Today, there were a lot of heroes:

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Coming into the season, the starting rotation was pegged as the weak spot of this 2011 Royals team.  Through 12 games, the bullpen was garnering the attention, led by a crew of rookies who’ve been nearly untouchable.

On Friday, it was the other way around.  Luke Hochevar gave up a leadoff double to Ichiro Suzuki and didn’t allow another hit.  Period.  The bullpen, on the other hand, walked four, gave up four hits and four runs.  Were it not for a leaping catch of a line drive by Mike Aviles, Joakim Soria would have blown another save.

The key, though, was Hochevar.

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He’s still sitting on an ugly 5-32 start, but he showed better at bats on Tuesday night, working a sacrifice fly and drawing a walk.  Baby steps.  Chris Getz and Wilson Betemit continued to produce, so Aviles may still have to scrap for at bats, but Kila Ka’aihue‘s struggles against lefties might mean more DH starts for Betemit or Aviles.  Today, he was a big part to their 10-5 win over the Twins.

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Somebody on Twitter likened the Royals struggles with the Twins to Lou Brown talking to Indians General Manager Charlie Donovan in Major League – “One of these days we’ll figure out how to beat those guys.”

It seems the Twins always have the Royals at arm’s length.  They don’t win all the games, but they win the blowouts and they win more of the close ones.  Tonight, they won one that they shouldn’t have, and the Royals lost one that they should have won.

And no, it’s not all on Robinson Tejeda (though he does take a lot of the blame).

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So far, I’ve been dead wrong.

On top of two excellent blocks at the plate to prevent runs, he had hit to tie the game on Saturday.  Then, on a day when he wasn’t even in the lineup, he becomes the hero by hitting a walkoff homer, the second such ending to a Royals game in this young season, and the third straight late-inning come from behind win.

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Despite losing the season opener, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur and rookies Aaron Crow, Nate Adcock and Tim Collins all performed well.

The old guard, however, was up to their usual tricks.

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There were a few surprises, though not big ones.  The Royals open camp with four rookie relief pitchers:  Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Jeremy Jeffress and Rule 5 selection Nate Adcock.  When Robert Fish was sent back to the Angels, it left Collins as the lone lefty reliever in camp while Crow’s promotion has been debated as a good move or not.  It seems split between those who see him as a starter and think he should open up in the rotation in Double A or Triple A and those who see him as a full-time late-inning pitcher.

Then there are those who see him as a potential rotation candidate down the line while getting bullpen work to acclimate himself to the big leagues.  Crow struggled in 2009, but showed solid command in Arizona and in today’s game induced three ground ball outs in a perfect seventh inning.

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Following last week’s debut of The Royalman Report (featuring guest Christian Colon), we were back at it on Sunday night, discussing, among other things, the option of Lorenzo Cain, opening day, and the way the bullpen is shaping up.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen and co-hosted by myself.  This week, a scheduling conflict had me away from the studio, but Brian McGannon of Royals Kingdom stepped in to guest host.  I was able to call in and chip in during the second half while we discussed the bullpen.

You can check it out via the embedded player below:

If the embedded player isn’t working for you, though, you can check it out here or download it directly here.

(Note: Due to a server change in May, this episode is unavailable indefinitely. We apologize for the inconvenience, but you can always check out new episodes and guests atRoyalmanReport.com.)

The Royalman Report is live every Sunday from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. streaming from Royalman Report.com.

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Tim Collins, Big leaguer (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

The Royals returned Robert Fish to the Angels this afternoon.  Fish, you’ll remember, was a Rule 5 pick by the Yankees from Los Angeles, but the Royals claimed him on waivers.  For the last few games in spring training, Fish and Tim Collins were the only left-handed relievers in Royals camp.

Now it’s just Collins.

While unconfirmed, it’s obvious that Collins has won a spot in the bullpen after 10.1 innings of solid pitching.  Collins put up a 2.61 ERA and had a 12/5 K/BB ratio.  He didn’t surrender a homer.

His inclusion in the bullpen isn’t very surprising.  With Fish’s departure, his 40 man roster spot is open and ripe for Collins to step in.

It also seems as if Aaron Crow has made the opening day roster.

Despite being demoted last July from Double A to High A, Crow came on strong this spring, putting up a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 innings.  He, like Collins, didn’t give up a homer, and had his command in line, too.  He struck out 11 and walked 3.  At 24 and with improved command, he should be ready.  The Royals may use him as a reliever full-time or work towards stretching him out for a spot in the rotation (at some point).

That seems to leave two spots in the bullpen up for grabs.  With Nate Adcock already on the 40 man roster and pitching well enough, he may have the edge.  Kanekoa Texeira, also on the 40 man, has been strong this spring as well and the elbow issues he’d suffered late in 2010 are no longer hampering him.

The Royals have two more spring games before they head back to Kansas City.  It’s likely the final roster won’t be fully set until after Tuesday afternoon’s game.

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As expected, Luke Hochevar will be the opening day starter.  Whether or not he’s an ace, he gets the nod on March 31st against the Angels.  Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen and Kyle Davies round out the rotation for the first couple weeks of the season and Vin Mazzaro will be the fifth starter once the Royals need one.

That puts Sean O’Sullivan into a long-relief role to start the season.  With Joakim Soria and Robinson Tejeda as the only true locks in the bullpen, the Royals are going with a 12 man staff (according to Bob Dutton).  That leaves four spots remaining.

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Duffy had made five appearances during spring training, giving up 8 earned runs in 8 innings.  He struggled with his control, walking eight batters but gave up just five hits (though two were homers).  He was discussed as a potential bullpen candidate but should get more seasoning in Triple A.

Chavez gave up two runs in four innings over four appearances, giving up eight hits but walking just one.

The cuts leave 40 players in camp, with 32 of those on the 40 man roster.

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The moves signify the Royals focusing their attention towards opening day after getting a look at prospects and players who might contribute at the big league level in 2011.  They have 42 players in major league camp competing for spots.

The seven non-roster invitees who were sent to minor league camp today were Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Joaquin Arias, Blaine Hardy, Cody Clark and Brett Carroll.

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Fish is 6’2″ and a former 6th round pick in 2006 with a 95 mph fastball and a big but inconsistent curveball.  In 365.2 innings in the minors Fish has a career ERA of 5.05 with 9.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.  It looks like he could be a bit nasty with the fastball, but the curve is the key.  Greg Schaum noted that if he tweaked his delivery here or there, he could be an Andy Sisco type of lefty.

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With starters starting to go deeper into games and numerous candidates vying for bullpen roles, players like Dwyer, Lamb and Smith are shifting to get more innings in minor league camp.

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Nobody has been reported to be in the best shape of their life yet, but I’m sure that’s coming.  My hunch is that Brayan Pena is the first such reference when it happens (and it always happens).

But that’s not important.  Onto the news:

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