August 7, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits two run homer against the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

In the last couple of years, Butler’s gotten a bad  rap. He’s always been a good contact hitter and one of the best at hitting doubles. His size, though, suggested that he should be able to hit for more power. Because he wasn’t, a group of fans would perk up if he went into any slump, however brief, and state that Butler was an overrated player and that anyone could do his job as designated hitter.

It’s for that reason that I love writing about Billy Butler.

Truth is that yes, he does look like a player who should be able to knock out 30 homers year in and year out. It’s just never happened before.

Earlier this season, Butler was showing strong power numbers. At the All-Star break, he was a legitimate option to join the American League home run derby team (and infamously did not get selected). In the past week, he’s set a new career high in homers in a season, and there’s plenty of 2012 to go.

So the thought turns, as it often does, to the question of chasing down the Royals franchise home run record. Perhaps just as disappointing as the Royals 27 year playoff drought is the fact that no current major league franchise has a home run record lower than the Royals 36. Steve Balboni‘s record has stood since 1985, and really hasn’t been approached very often. The Royals haven’t even had a player hit 30 homers since Jermaine Dye‘s 33 in 2000.

Where’s Butler stand in that chase?

Before tonight’s game against the Orioles, Butler has 23 homers in 111 games. He’s working on a pace of one homer per every 20.3 plate appearances.

If he plays in every game left on the schedule (50), that pace would give him 33 homers in 2012, which should put a lot of doubters to rest (especially since his walk rate and strike out rates are better than league average and he’s batting .300).

To reach 37 homers and beat Balboni’s record, he’ll have to homer once every 15 plate appearances or every 13.5 at bats. That’s not outrageous, but it’s also a much greater pace than his current one. To reach 40 homers, he’ll have to homer about once every 12 plate appearances or about every 11th at bat. That’s a Ruthian pace, so 40 homers are probably out of reach.

Thirty homers is easily in reach and I’d say very likely to happen. Balboni’s record is pretty safe – though Butler’s always had bigger power numbers in the second half through his career, so it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Forty homers would be fun and all, but is a very unlikely feat this season.

#CountryBreakfast cleans up at the plate. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That noise has diminished a bit in 2012, though. Butler is hitting homers now, and he’s surely headed for a career year in that department. He’s doing this while not changing his approach too much, though he’s striking out more (15.2% vs. 13.7% over his career) and walking less (7.9% vs. 8.8% for his career), but it’s not a drastic change. His overall line sits at .297/.365/.516.

He has 16 homers after one today, his third highest career total but only five off of his career high of 21. Last year, he hit 19 homers. There have been mentions online that Robinson Cano, captain of the American League’s Home Run Derby team might want to choose a Royal and that could easily be Butler. He’s tied for 11th in the AL in homers along with Miguel Cabrera, Trevor Plouffe and Josh Willingham. He’s hit more than Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko and Albert Pujols.

He’s on the way to a great power year.

That got me thinking about past Royals hitters and homers. The franchise is often an easy target since Steve Balboni‘s team record of 36 homers in 1985 is the lowest of all current franchises. The park has a lot to do with that, but there have also been years where Mike Macfarlane, Mark Teahen or John Buck led the team in homers. Butler’s 16 would have been enough to lead the 1969 and 1971 Royals and would have tied him for the 2010 team lead. It’s only July 1.

I dug up a list of Royals players with more homers than Butler at their all-star break. While it’s a nice walk down memory lane, it also demonstrates Butler’s performance this year as one of the best in team history. Notably, Jermaine Dye‘s 2000 was the last time a hitter was voted onto the All-Star team when he launched 22 homers in the first half. Bo Jackson also started in 1989 (famously) after hitting more than 20 homers before the Midsummer Classic.

Interesting note: Balboni at the all-star break in 1985 had just 14 homers. He finished the year with his notorious 36. Gary Gaetti, the closest to catching Balboni, had 17 at the break but had only played in 62 games. He finished with 35.

Butler has a week before the all-star break and has a chance to put himself in the top five of this list.

How close will he get to Balboni? He’s been a good hitter later into the year in the past, so we might be seeing signs of the start of something great. He may just be getting started.

*Through Saturday June 30.

Who will be the Royals starting second baseman on opening day? (Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals 2012 season is going to be like a good book or movie.  Lots of intersecting plotlines, intriguing drama, memorable heroes, wild action scenes, and despicable bad guys.  The major difference between this year and seasons past is that the story of the Royals in 2012 has the potential for a happy ending.  No other Royals season for the past umpteen years can say that.

Many of the story lines will be decided in the next several days, but others will hold our attention for months – and that’s another thing that makes this season different from most others.  If the story plays out the way we expect, we’ll still be watching and listening with rapt attention until the last game against the Tigers on October 3.

Here’s an enticing potential storyline for us to begin with.  What if (now just humor me for a moment, this could happen), what if the Royals are within 3 games of the Tigers when the final series with them begins on October 1?  Does it make this storyline even more fascinating if you know these games will be played in Kauffman stadium?  You couldn’t plan a better outcome for 2012, could you?  I bet just the thought of it has your juices flowing already.  I think it’s a very optimistic thought, and few if any Royals fans I know are expecting the team to be in contention down the stretch, but we’re all hoping for it aren’t we?  And I think all of us would say that it COULD happen, which makes this storyline one that will likely keep our attention well into the season.

And if you’re wondering why I’m using the Tigers as the team I’m suggesting will lead the AL Central this year, well… Verlander, Fielder, Cabrera – that’s why.

Who is going to play second base for the Royals this year?  The smart money is on Johnny Giavotella who finished the year at second last season, but it could be Chris Getz or (knock on wood), Yuniesky Betancourt.  Giavotella has the potential to be clearly the best hitter of this group, but his defense is suspect and he may still be recovering from surgery to correct a labral tear in his hip that hindered his ability to move side to side.  Alex Gordon underwent similar surgery in 2009 and so far, I’d say his defensive capabilities have not only recovered, but have contributed to raising his status to one of the top left fielders in the league.  (Who would you rather have in left field than Alex Gordon, MLB’s 24^th ranked player in 2011 according to ESPN’s player ranker?  No one?  That’s what I thought.)

Chris Getz has changed his “swing path” and his stride to the ball this Spring, which so far is showing promising results, but he’s still an underdog to usurp the position from Johnny.  One other frightening prospect is the hopefully very slight possibility that because both Getz and Giavotella have options remaining the Royals have the flexibility to send either Johnny or Chris to Omaha (or both – Yikes!) and let so-called utility player Yuniesky Betancourt play second base.  (I say “so-called” because he’s never really played all the positions he’s being asked to backup.  And why would we want him to anyway?)   Without going into great detail in this post regarding how I feel about this possibility, you can read what I think here.  You can also read how Kevin Scobee feels about it here.  Suffice it to say, it alarms both of us.

Will the Royals still be in the race at the All Star break?  I just finished writing (or maybe dreaming) in the 3^rd paragraph that the Royals could potentially be within 3 games of the Tigers at the end of the season, so obviously I think the Royals will be in the race at the All Star break.  There are many positive and negative aspects of a team comprised of mostly young, enthusiastic, but somewhat inexperienced players.  The energy that comes off this team is infectious and I love watching them chest bump each other and feed off of their teammates’ play.  But teams like this can be emotional, and streaky, and an 8 game losing streak could jeopardize everything they’re trying to accomplish.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer share a little love (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

Will one of the Royals beat Steve Balboni’s 1985 single season 36 home run record?  (Balboni also led the league in strikeouts that year with 166.  Ay caramba!)  There are few records in baseball that are begging to be broken more than this one.  I know Kauffman stadium is a pitcher’s park, but come on guys, somebody needs to break this record, please!  Mike Moustakas has the pedigree to break the record.  He hit 52 homes runs during his high school career (a California state record) and he led all minor league players with 36 home runs in 2010 while playing in just 118 games.  Back in late January, one of the guys on the MLB Networks’ Inside Pitch program predicted that Eric Hosmer would eventually win the triple crown.  I believe both Moose and Hoz have the potential to break the record, and very possibly both of them will break the record…  someday, but probably not in 2012.

Will Alex Gordon repeat his All Star worthy performance from 2011?  The respected ZiPS projection system has Gordon pegged to backslide from his 2011 performance and end 2012 with a .278/.358/.464 line (he hit .303/.376/.502 in 2011) and 20 home runs.  Those stats are decent, particularly for a guy expected to turn in a strong defensive performance, but probably not All Star worthy.  On the other hand, I think ZiPS may rely too heavily on past performance when creating their calculations and not enough on the intangibles or the fact that someone “figured it out.”  If you look up “figured it out” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Alex Gordon.

Few people have come into the league with higher expectations or potential and in my opinion it has been more of a surprise that Gordon hasn’t been performing at an All Star level prior to 2011 than it should be a surprise if he performs at an All Star level in 2012.  In addition, I believe his chances of making the squad this year are increased because many people took notice last year to how loudly RoyalNation squawked when Gordon didn’t make the team and this should raise his visibility a little in 2012.  Put me down as a believer and firmly in the camp of disagreeing with ZiPS, at least where Gordon is concerned.  I think he’ll be hovering around .290/.295 by the All Star break with 12-14 dingers, which should be good enough for consideration.

Will the Royals place more than one player on the All Star team?  We all know Gordon was robbed last year, but in all likelihood, if he had been selected to the All Star team Aaron Crow probably wouldn’t have gone.  One of the drawbacks of having a young team is that few people know about you and it’s hard for your players to get votes in Baltimore or Phoenix if the fans don’t recognize their names.  And if the fans don’t vote for them, no All Star manager is going to select more than one Royal when he can nominate players from his own team.  And Ron Washington will probably have plenty of deserving Rangers to pick from.

Until the Royals make the playoffs and put themselves on a national stage, I can’t imagine one of them getting the most votes, so I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.  But, there is one possible wild card in the selection process this year – the game will be played in Kansas City at Kauffman stadium.  If Ron Washington wants to make a good impression with the home crowd, he could possibly pick an extra player from the Royals.  The only way to ensure this happens is if a couple of the Royals step up and earn it, forcing his hand to the point that he would have no alternative but to select a couple of the boys in blue.

Will one of the Royals promising minor league pitchers join the rotation?  There are several young pitchers in the minor leagues that could earn the right to be considered for the rotation in 2012.  Many people believe Mike Montgomery is the most likely candidate for this honor, although consensus opinion is that unless he’s “lights out” in Spring Training, he’ll begin the season at AAA.  Going back to ZiPS, they predict that if Montgomery plays for the Royals in 2012, his line will be almost identical to Danny Duffy’s, beginning with a projected ERA of 4.92.  Between you and me, I’d be very happy if Mike could achieve that in his first major league season, although based on his performance in Omaha last year, I’d be mildly shocked if he did that well.

Not including the pitchers who’ve played at least a few games already in KC, there are several additional guys that could make the club sometime in 2012, including John Lamb (his 2011 Tommy John surgery makes his 2012 debut unlikely, although not impossible), Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer, and a few others.  I’m very excited for these guys to all earn their way to KC, but in my opinion, none of them deserve a promotion yet and with the probable exception of Mike Montgomery, I don’t think we’ll see any of them in the starting rotation in Kansas City in 2012.

Will Lorenzo Cain be able to fill Melky Cabrera’s shoes?  If you consider that a player’s value is more than just his production at the plate, I say yes, Lorenzo Cain will be very close to Melky’s equal in 2012.  (Mike Engel said that Melky won’t even be Melky’s equal in 2012, so there’s that.)  Cain plays lights out defense, and while he hasn’t spent enough time at the Major League level to prove himself yet, he’s at least shown that he can hold his own at the plate.  ZiPS says Cain will bat .258 this year, but I think that’s a pessimistic prediction.  I may be surprised, but if the Royals don’t break .500 this year, I’m confident it won’t be because of Lorenzo Cain.

Will the Royals break .500 this year?  As we all know, the last time the Royals broke .500 was in 2003.  Most of the oddsmakers have the Royals pegged at 79-81 wins in 2012, and these are the people who make their living off of predictions like this.  We all know that a clutch double or a blown call can make the difference between at least a couple of games each year, so yes, it’s very, very possible the Royals could break .500 this year.  I’m saying 83 wins this year, and a playoff run in 2013, which I believe is realistic.

Will Sports Illustrated eat their words?  A few weeks ago, I was infuriated by a Sports Illustrated article entitled “Hope Doesn’t Spring Eternal for These Teams”, which listed the Royals, Orioles, A’s, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs as the teams that never have any chance of competing.  The writer of this story obviously knows nothing about baseball history and the periods of time where the major leagues were dominated by the Royals, Orioles, and A’s, and the unexpected championships of the Mets.  And there are more Cub fans who dream of bringing home the trophy each year than there are grains of sand on the beach.

Let’s all answer this together – How many World Series have the Red Sox won in the past 90+ years?  Two.  How many championships have the Rangers won in their entire existence?  None.  How many times have the gigantic market Angels hung the flag in the past 51 years?  One time, the same as the Royals.  If you want to get all caught up in “what have you done for me lately?” then let’s throw all the teams into the pot and consider them equally, and not just the teams that it has become politically correct to bash.

But, beyond these historical slights, the writer obviously hasn’t kept up with what’s been happening in Kansas City in 2012.  Not only are Royals fans fired up beyond any year in recent memory, but the Royals have a very realistic chance to compete, and if a handful of breaks go their way I could see them in contention right up to the wire.  I think it’s highly probable that Sports Illustrated will have no choice but to pay more attention to Kansas City before this season is over.

Spring Training has begun and it feels like we’re watching a preview of coming attractions.  It’s almost time for the book to be opened, the movie to begin, and the curtain to be drawn on the 2012 Royals season.  It’s been years since Kansas City had so many baseball storylines to watch, and longer since the storylines could potentially hold our interest for months to come.  I for one can’t wait.  Get your popcorn ready!

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

For me, the New Year does not start on January 1, it starts with Opening Day. Opening Day is the physical embodiment of hope and new life. Instead of soon-to-be-forgotten resolutions, I make predictions about who will finally break Steve Balboni’s homerun record (Alex Gordon) and which pitcher will win 20 games (Luke Hochevar) and how many wins we’ll have at the end of the season (88). And every Opening Day is filled with miracles—you just have to look for them.

For example, on Opening Day 2002, I tailgated with my friend Chuck and his sons. We ate burgers and hot dogs, played catch, and made sure to get into the stadium early enough to watch batting practice. After all the pre-game fanfare, the players took the field as Jeff Suppan strolled confidently to the mound. Chuck said, “If the first pitch is a strike, this game is ours.”

Sure enough, the first pitch to Minnesota Twins left-fielder Jacque Jones was a fastball called strike. The stadium erupted. The second pitch, however, sailed over Chuck Knoblauch’s head and landed beyond the left field fence.

The Royals were down 3 – 1 after the first two innings. In the bottom of the third, they scored three to take their first lead of the season. Then, in the bottom of the fifth, Neifi Perez and Carlos Beltran hit back-to-back triples. Buck O’Neil is right; there is nothing more exciting than a triple.

After six innings, the boys in blue led 6 – 4. The Twinkies, though, plated four in the top of the seventh, winning the game 8 – 6. On that Opening Day, the miracle was this: Neifi Perez was the team leader with a .600 batting average—two singles and the triple. (The only other time Neifi impressed me with his bat was when he hit the farthest foul ball I have ever seen—it flew over the corner of the upper deck.)

The next year, 2003, Tony Pena’s simple mantra “We Believe” was in full-effect as Runelvys Hernandez took the mound instead of Jeremy Affeldt because of a Spring Training coin-toss. Seated near White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle’s family, I tried not to be too rude as I cheered when Ken Harvey doubled twice off the crafty lefty. Hernandez, Jason Grimsley, and Mike MacDougal combined for a three-hit shutout, the first and only shutout victory in Royals’ Opening Day history. (They do have one shutout loss on Opening Day. In 1971, the Twins won 2 – 0.)

Probably the biggest miracle in recent Opening Day history took place in 2004, also against the White Sox. The Royals were losing 7 – 3 going into the bottom of the ninth. Brett Christie describes the scene beautifully here. That game only served to reinforce my belief that one should always stay until the last pitch; you never know what’s going to happen.

This year, I’m hoping for a different kind of Opening Day miracle. I won’t be at the stadium, or even in Kansas City for that matter. My cousin’s daughter, Rachel, has cystic fibrosis (CF). I’ve been asked to serve as the emcee for a CF fundraising event in Omaha—Rachel’s Raise of Hope.

Rachel is the same age as my youngest daughter and the two girls look more like twins than second cousins…or third cousins once removed…or whatever. In the last couple of years there have numerous breakthroughs in research regarding CF and every dollar raised brings a cure one step closer. Maybe the money raised from this dinner and auction will make the difference. Maybe this will be the year when CF can stand for “Cure Found.” Maybe next year, Rachel and her family can come to Opening Day with my family without worrying about all the hazards inherent in large crowds for those with CF.

Yes, of course, I’ll miss tailgating, high-fiving strangers, and walking around in awe of the most beautiful stadium in major league baseball.

I’ll listen to Denny on the radio every chance I get, trusting him to keep me up-to-date with the game. I’ll also ask a couple friends to text me updates from the stadium. Before bed, I’ll watch the highlights online and read the writings of Dutton and Kaegel and my KoK friends.

And while 40,000 fans are cheering on the boys in blue, I’m hoping to play a small part in an Opening Day miracle for the 70,000 people living with CF around the world.

For more information about Rachel’s Raise of Hope, click here.

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I was flipping through the Royals 2011 Media Guide, looking for information on another piece, when I came to a listing of every Royal who’s ever accomplished the feat. Some of the names made me stop and think “I forgot he was ever on this team” while some I can remember seeing the game in  which the grand slam happened.

So if you’re okay with a little bit of trivia while waiting for the NFL Conference Championships (it’s okay, you’re allowed to like other sports – as long as baseball isn’t in season), here are some interesting finds:

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37 – Sean O’Sullivan- Yes it’s his number but how will Sully be used this year? He spent time in Omaha last year plus came out of the bullpen at times in Kansas City. Many fans are still waiting on him to do something productive for the organization since he was acquired.

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Al Hrabosky – The Mad Hungarian (Sports Illustrated)

#2 on our Royals All-Time Name Team

The middle of Christmas / New Years week is no time for hard hitting news or brain strain caused by disagreements over year end organizational moves.   We’ve had several days now to dissect the Yuniesky Betancourt signing and consider what it means to the organization.  Half of Royal Nation has been calling for Dayton Moore’s head on a platter over this decision, and the other half have yawned and scoffed at all the silly fuss over a part-time utility player.

Just since last week, we signed Twins castoff Jose Mijares as a left handed reliever to take some pressure off Tim Collins, and we’ve pondered the merits of chasing after Roy Oswalt to bolster our rotation.  Whether you agree or disagree with these moves and potential moves, I’m glad they’re giving us a reason to talk baseball.  Not a bad week’s work for a small market team smack in the middle of the cold offseason.

Enough with the hard news.  Now that Christmas is over, you’ve opened your presents and drank the egg nog, it’s time to loosen your belt and join me in a light hearted look at the history of the Royals and some of the names that have made the games entertaining. (more…)

Steve "Bye Bye" Balboni

The man steps in, uniform tugging at the wrong contours of his body.  He’s ready to hit and as the pitch heads towards home plate, he flails at it, missing for strike one.  The pitcher winds again and delivers another pitch and again, this mustachioed slugger swings and misses.

On his third swing, however, he drives the ball up into a majestic arc that clears the fence – a home run!

In 1985, as part of a World Series winning team, Steve Balboni hit 36 blasts to set a Royals team record in a memorable season.

That record stands to this day.

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• In regards to the Francis signing, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs calls it the “best free agent signing of the winter” and congratulates Dayton Moore.
• On Friday, an odd anniversary occurred.  Sometime around 8:50 p.m. Central time, the billion second anniversary of a beanball breaking Frank White‘s hand in 1979.  Later in that game, the same pitcher, Ed Farmer, beaned Al Cowens, breaking his jaw.  Chris Jaffe and The Hardball Times did all the counting on that one.
• It’s Steve Balboni‘s birthday today (happy 54th!) and Baseball-Reference looks at his career as the ultimate for a three true outcomes player.  Balboni, of course, still holds the Royals single season home run mark of 36, which has stood since 1985.  C’mon Moustakas, wipe that off the board…
• This is an older article I stumbled upon at Mental Floss: Ten Overhyped Baseball Players Who Fizzled.  Sadly, the Royals don’t have just one player on the list, but two.  They also acquired one more and a fourth was involved in a significant trade in the Royals past.  Scary.
• In 1980, George Brett never went more than two games without a hit.  Baseball-Reference has a list of nine other crazy statistics about the Hall of Famer.

Happy Sunday!

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