Back in November, the Royals had already traded for Ervin Santana and re-signed Jeremy Guthrie, and while there were rumors of a James Shields or Jon Lester trade floating around, there wasn’t anything concrete or imminent. The Royals were still in the market for a top pitcher. Marcum had been noted to have some interest in the Royals (being from nearby Excelsior Springs, Missouri) and the Royals had mutual interest.

Oct 1, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Shaun Marcum (18) pitches against the San Diego Padres in the first inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

At the time, Marcum was still looking for a multi-year deal and the big names like Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez had yet to sign. The Royals clearly weren’t ready to make him an offer of any kind, but to do so then would have had to have been something of more than the one year he eventually got. Given that his 2012 wasn’t the best health-wise (he missed two months with elbow soreness and had shoulder issues entering the year), nobody can blame the Royals (or any other team) for holding off on pursuing Marcum. Also, as I’d noted in November, Marcum’s fastball velocity had been dropping year by year and he’d been giving up more and more line drives.

So no, he wasn’t a perfect option. But he was a good one.

Fast forward to January. The Royals have acquired James Shields and seem primed to let Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar be the fifth starter to open 2013. Payroll had exceeded the supposed budget David Glass had established, but value is value. Marcum presented a risk but he’s performed well over the years and the upside of a deal is that he continues to pitch as well as he has. The downside is that he pitches about like Luke Hochevar did last year.

Maybe Marcum decided he didn’t  want to play for the Royals. Maybe he got an offer but the incentives weren’t there like they were with the Mets offer. Maybe the Royals were so concerned about his medicals that they avoided him altogether once they’d wrapped up Shields.

I just hope it wasn’t money. Signing a pitcher – even a risky one – at $4 million with that track record is something the Royals need to explore when they can. Maybe he only gets to 100 innings before something in his arm breaks, but at that point, you’ve spent the money and there’s depth to plug in. By July, Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino will be back or close to it. If Marcum could have gotten them to that point before breaking down, the Royals rotation may not have skipped a beat. If he gets beyond that point, then he’s a potential second-tier starter pitching for a team that needs them badly. So what if he starts to get his performance incentive money? That’s why it’s in there. If he can get to 150 innings and is pitching well, great. If he’s not pitching well, don’t let him get to 150 innings.

It’s possible that Marcum still struggles with elbow issues (he had Tommy John surgery in 2009 and has thrown 520 innings since) and  isn’t effective, but it’s also possible he could have provided quality innings throughout the season. He’d at least be an upgrade over Hochevar, Chen or other options, and would have allowed Santana and Wade Davis to slide in to the #4 and #5 rotation spots.

The market didn’t go Marcum’s way. While other pitchers cashed in big, he’s playing to re-establish value and show that he’s healthy so that next offseason he can get the big money commitment. It seems like the Royals had considered their search over after they’d gotten Shields and took their foot off the gas.

There’s a chance that this pattern could be repeated 30 or so times in 2013. The Royals are still likely to look for one more pitcher after trading for Ervin Santana and re-signing Jeremy Guthrie. Marcum, who’ll turn 31 next month, was a third round pick by Toronto in 2003, debuted in 2005 and has thrown 916.2 innings as a big leaguer, compiling a 3.76 ERA in the process. He’s shown pretty good control (2.8 BB/9) and that he can strike people out (7.3 K/9). In 2010 and 2011, he threw a combined 396 innings. For his career, he has a 112 ERA+.

He’s the kind of pitcher that would make an impact, especially on a team like the Royals. His track record of success would make him the favorite to start opening day.

Of course, there’s always a catch.

Sept 4, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Shaun Marcum (18) throws against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Marcum’s been overlooked during his career as a starter (pitching mostly in Toronto and Milwaukee can do that sometimes). As a result, he’s lacked the same buzz that Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez have had this offseason. He’s also flying under the radar due to questions about his durability lately. He missed the end of the 2008 season and all of 2009 after Tommy John surgery. When he came back in 2010, Toronto marched him out for 31 starts and 195.1 innings. He succeeded, going 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.147 WHIP.

In 2011, he had been traded to the Brewers for third base prospect Brett Lawrie. For Milwaukee, Marcum threw 200.2 innings and a 3.54 ERA. Through 13 starts in 2012, Marcum had a 3.39 ERA in 82.1 innings. He felt something tighten in his elbow and was placed on the disabled list. It wasn’t certain if he’d pitch again in 2012, however, his next start came on August 25 after he came off the DL. He was fortunate to avoid surgery, but that kind of injury track record does leave a black cloud over his performance and teams are understandably cautious.

After he’d returned to the rotation, Marcum made eight more starts and in 41.2 innings, had an ERA of 4.32. He threw less strikes (65% pre-DL, 61% post) and his line drive percentage went from 21% before the DL stint to 29% after. That’s part of another scary trend. Since having Tommy John surgery, Marcum’s line drive rates have gone from less than 18% from 2006 to 2008 to 18.3% in 2010, 20% in 2011 and 23.1% last year. At the same time, his ground ball rates have gone down. Usually, they’ll say that a pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery will take a year to get back into the groove. Now, it’s been much longer than a year and his peripheral stats are still in decline.

Marcum’s never been a hard thrower. Before surgery, he was throwing in the upper-80s with his fastball. In 2010, his average fastball velocity was 87.1 mph and has decreased in each of the last two seasons since. He does have a wide array of pitches and doesn’t rely on just the fastball, and has thrown more of a cut fastball recently as well, a pitch that will give up some speed for movement anyway so it may not be a concern, but it’s worth noting.

Marcum’s not a safe bet, but when he’s healthy enough to be on the mound, he’s very good. Not an ace, but he could be the second guy on just about any team in the big leagues and for the Royals, that’s an arm in demand.

Last season with the Brewers, Marcum made $7.725 million. If he’d had a full season in 2012, he’d probably be in the discussion with Sanchez and Greinke as the key free agent starters on the market. With his one surgery already on record and his two month absence last year with elbow pain, I’m sure many teams will avoid a big investment. That can present an opportunity for the Royals to get Marcum into the fold on an incentive-laden deal where they could tack on an option year in case he stays healthy.

He’s not likely someone the Royals want to commit to long-term, though. There are too many questions, and as they get closer to arbitration years for other players in the lineup and the bullpen, they can’t be stuck with a big number in three years for Marcum if he’s hurt. This may be a “prove health” year for Marcum and it could get the Royals a discount. With the structure of Jeremy Guthrie’s contract (which pays him just $5 million this year), the Royals could afford something. If they non-tender Luke Hochevar, that’s $4-5 million off the payroll right there. In the end, the money shouldn’t be the issue if the Royals don’t sign Marcum. If they can’t get a trade worked out and he’s available, they should give him a shot.

And if they find that after the trade, they still have the space, he’s even more attractive as a rotation option. I’m sure he’d like to pitch closer to home – according to Jon Morosi, that may be the case. Someone alert Ryan Lefebvre.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.