Now while you could provide an argument, and possibly a compelling one, about 42 games into a season not being all that much in the grand scheme of things and there still being plenty of games left to played, the very same red flags there were before the season about a roster built largely on contact-dependent production, still remains and has finally started to even out the team’s luck.

Coming into this year the main reason provided for why the Royals would and could contend was the progression of two players that were drafted higher than anyone else while Dayton Moore has been in charge,* Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. And while there were very real concerns about both of them after the 2012 season, Moore and Co. still felt as if now, 2013, was the time to “go for it” packaging four prospects for two pitchers to bolster an ailing rotation.

*Excluding Luke Hochevar because if Royals can use his being picked when convenient to their argument, so can I.

Nothing about the motivation behind the acquisition of James Shields and Wade Davis was or is unsound – I’ve written a number of times about there needing to be some point in which wins were paramount – however there are a lot of things about the application of that trade, along with targeting nothing but pitching in the offseason while expecting major progression from more than half of the position players on the roster, is unsound.

And now with the two focal points of expectations and hopes struggling more than anyone could have imagined, the organization is defensive, without answers, and acting like a petulant child stomping their feet when questioned. (More on that shortly.)

Mike Moustakas is currently hitting .178/.252/.311 on the season with seemingly no end in sight. His plate discipline coming up through the minors was always a cause to relax on the projections for what he would be as a major league hitter, but it never seemed to be this bad or be cause for this much damage.

Moustakas is now a career .240/.294/.384 hitter in 1,130 plate appearances, far past the mythical 1,000-plate-appearances-mark Moore had previously laid out as the time to pass judgment on a hitter, and for all the struggles the third baseman has with patience and drawing walks to allow him to tap into his power, it’s his actual swing that’s cause for concern due to his 17.8 infield pop-ups percentage. His top-hand dominant swing creates far too pronounced downward and upward angles of bat path, resulting in a small zone for solid contact and a small margin for error.

Hosmer is currently batting .266 with a .340 on-base percentage, which isn’t terrible, but he’s slugging .345, a number so low for him that it should make everyone question whether 2011 actually happened or not.

His swing has completely changed from 2011 when he used an open stance, got his front foot down early, and let his hands fly.

Now, the only chance he has to drive the ball is to the opposite field (as evident by his spray chart), lucking into solid contact because he is such a gifted hitter, in spite of his long swing.

Take a closer look at this swing as compared to Gordon’s from their home runs in Baltimore.* Hosmer’s hand load is far too active and twists around his body as his shoulders turn. Gordon’s is near still, with just the slightest push straight back.

(click gif to view)

The more the hands over-rotate disproportionately to the shoulders, the more likely it is for the hands to swing out and around, instead of straight through, to the hitting zone. This makes it harder to catch up to higher velocities. But, if timed currently, and with advanced hand-eye coordination and special talents like those of Hosmer, he can still square up pitches to drive the other way, simply because his zone for contact has been moved deeper across the plate.

Both hitters have flaws right now hurting their production; both have flaws that are entirely fixable. The question becomes now if those flaws need to be fixed in Triple-A. And that talk has just about started up.

The question the Royals have to ask themselves is if spending the next however many months helping their two cornerstone players fight through their struggles stunts their overall development, and how much they’re willing to sacrifice Hosmer and Moustakas’ long-term potential for a shot at the playoffs this year.

Because there needs to be a conversation about when is the appropriate time to send both players down in hopes that they can turn back into the players they’re capable of being. The most prime example of this type of decision is currently playing left field.

Alex Gordon was sent down to Triple-A not necessarily because he was a bad player, he wasn’t, but because he wasn’t the player he could have and should have been. Sure Gordon could have competed in the big leagues as a .260/.351/.432 hitter (his numbers his last full year before injuries took much of 2009 and 2010) but he was capable of better, and if the Royals were ever going to move forward as a team, it needed to be with a better Alex Gordon.

Right now, Moustakas and Hosmer are competing (Moustakas obviously less so) as everyday players, but if the Royals are truly a contender for the playoffs either this year or next year, it will only be with an Eric Hosmer and a Mike Moutakas that are living up to their full potential.

There needs to be a conversation how much of a detriment it is to that potential to have both players almost completely overmatched for much longer at the big league level.

The Bad

I’m skipping The Good for this edition because this is already nearing 2,000 words, and there were these gems of quotes from Ned Yost over the weekend:

“But I’m going to tell you something, if I’m wrong on this kid, it’ll be the first. I’ve never been wrong on one of these kids who I’ve had conviction with. None of them. We’re talking about 15 guys over a 30-year career”

“There is no third baseman tree. You don’t go grab another one. You let him develop. Look at Gordy (Alex Gordon). When I came over here (in 2010), all I heard (from fans) was this kid is never going to be anything.

“No. You’re wrong. Give them time to develop. But I understand it. I know what the fans want. They want it, and they want it now. Instant gratification just doesn’t work (in baseball).”

Oh spare me.

By now everyone has undoubtedly heard these quotes by Yost as appeared in Bob Dutton’s piece in the Saturday edition of the Kansas City Star.

The tonnage of narcissism and self-gratification it takes to make statements like that, with such arrogant conviction, is really quite astonishing. It’s astonishing that a man steeped in the muck of his own bravado, can be so condescending towards a fan base that has expectations only because he himself and his organization have told the fans to have those expectations.

To say “I’ve never been wrong” is on the one hand a brilliant public relations ploy because there’s no true way for such a blanket and empty statement to be questioned; there’s no way anyone could ever research whether it was true or false. But on the other hand Royals fans should be rolling their eyes at a man who earnestly believes he’s never been wrong in an industry in which people are wrong all the time.

In no other industry can a man stand so defiantly against questioning about his job performance, and in justification of that job performance, reference work he’s done at previous jobs, one in which he was fired from during a pennant race in September.

With just 12 games left in the season Yost was relieved of his position in Milwaukee because the organization felt he would make that much of a difference in the team’s performance across the final two weeks. Granted that was five years ago now, and people across all walks of business are allowed to grow and learn from past mistakes, but there aren’t many individuals who are willing to point to those past mistakes as a reason for their being right today.

To repeatedly use a past performance that your employer deemed not worthy of future employment with 12 games left in the season, is the same type of arrogance displayed by an organization that continually moves the goalposts on their own success and acts as if it is somehow the fans’ fault for wanting “instant gratification”.

But that’s where we are. This is now the second manager that has used the same phrase (which is more than mere coincidence and leads to believe that it’s a topic of conversation among the organization itself) as a means to antagonize and condescend a fanbase that just six weeks ago, largely felt this team was a playoff contender. A fanbase that felt this team was a playoff contender, because the organization itself planted that flag in the ground.

This is the seventh full season for the Royals under Dayton Moore, the third with Ned Yost as manager. In those seven seasons the Royals have yet to win more than 75 games, the team’s best players were either part of the last GM’s drafts or brought in from outside the organization, and the guy that is the most visible employee of the franchise has taken to throwing barbs at the fans for not being patient enough.

Royals fans may not deserve a winner – I’m not sure any fanbase really deserves anything, that’s not how it works – but Royals fans deserve better than that.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

On April 23^rd, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star wrote an article in which Moustakas claimed to have been informed of a flaw in his swing mechanics by the coaches. They told him that he had been getting out on his front foot too much and not staying back in a position where he can see the ball better and have a better opportunity to drive it. I’m not a swing expert by any means, but it certainly seems like a plausible explanation for why he was hitting so many pitches in the air – both in the infield and to the outfield – over the first 3 weeks of the season. At that point, Moose had a line of .158/.226/.193, which is less than desirable for most pitchers, let alone a third baseman on an AL club with playoff aspirations.

Since the flaw was revealed to him, Moose has put up a slash line that is much more indicative of a player manning the hot corner: .308/.383/.538 with 2 HR and 3 doubles over 12 games and 47 plate appearances.

Not only has his overall production improved, but it seems like Moustakas is seeing the ball better and has a better approach. He sports career best walk and strikeout percentages, and he’s seeing more pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) since the change. Prior to April 23^rd, Moose was seeing 3.27 P/PA. Since that date, the number is 3.68. Granted, that’s still not quite what you want to see, since that would only put him 61^st out of 94 qualified batters in the American League. But while it may not seem like it, seeing .4 more P/PA is a significant improvement. For example, adding another .4 to the 3.68 from his recent stretch would put him in the top 20 in the AL, right around players like Joe Mauer and Dustin Pedroia. In his last 4 games, Moose has seen 4.36 P/PA. Obviously that number isn’t going to be sustainable for a player like Moustakas who has never been a guy who takes a ton of walks, but it does suggest that he has improved his pitch recognition and is finding what pitches he needs to drive, while either letting others by, or fouling them off to wait for a better pitch.

Moose also seems to be making better contact on pitches he likes. Over the past 12 games, he has a LD% of 20.6, GB% of 35.3, and FB% of 44.1. Prior to the reveal of his swing flaw, he had a LD% of 12.2, GB% of 24.5, and FB% of 63.3.

Those are staggering numbers. Like all small sample sizes, you have to take these with a grain of salt, but the fact that there has been such a dramatic shift in his batted ball percentages continues to give credence to the coaches’ theory. Moustakas is still hitting infield flyballs at a high rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down in the next couple of weeks as well, as Moose continues to heat up.

Overall, Moustakas’ line still isn’t all that pretty: .219/.294/.333, so he does have a lot of work to do. But there are signs that he may be turning it around, and with the way the rest of the offense has looked lately, the Royals are really going to need their third baseman to hit like a third baseman. Moose and his fellow corner infielder, Eric Hosmer, will need to step their offensive production up in order for the Royals’ offense to be strong enough to keep the team in contention later in the season. While the starting pitching has been great, the last few games have shown that scoring just 1, 2, or 3 runs isn’t an effective strategy for winning consistently in this league. If Moustakas can keep performing the way he has recently, that will go a long way in improving this squad’s playoff chances.

Though they only played five games, which is tough on diehards like myself, the Royals did well in those five games going 4-1, which brings their overall record to 17-10. That’s very encouraging, especially when they took two of three from the Rays and the White Sox (we’ll see if they can get the sweep tomorrow). For that, they get an A grade for this week.

Here are some themes for you:

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) connects for a home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

‘Call the park ranger because the Moose is on the loose!’

I promised a friend that once Mike Moustakas started heating up, I would use this Dan Plesac line (potentially misquoted) that he and I find hilarious. It’s kind of hokey, and that’s why I like it. It might be an overstatement to say that Moustakas is back or that he’s hot or that he has “found it,” but last week, I predicted a turn around from him. And he certainly is turning it around. I’m not one to pass up an opportunity to point out when I’m right. So, I’m going to point it out while it’s still true. This last week, Moustakas went 6-16 with a double, a homerun, four RBI, two runs scored, and one walk. That’s a very solid week. He has also played tremendous defense in the Chicago series so far. It’s not a coincidence that Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are playing decent (not necessarily to their potential but decent), and the Royals have won four games in a row and look pretty dangerous.

The next step for Moustakas is to start driving the ball out of the park. His power seems to come in bunches so if he gets a couple of homers in the next few days, watch out. He could have a big May in the homerun column.

‘Life’s a dirty game. You gotta play dirty to win it.’

I’m sticking with quotes for the subheads this week. This is from The Wire, but it’s also in a hilarious standup comedy bit from Aziz Ansari (watch it). I use it to reference the dirty nature of statistical analysis, and by dirty, I mean noisy. And by noisy, I mean the stuff that doesn’t add up completely. Recently, Nate McLouth said something really stupid about advanced statistical analysis that was praised by this writer at MLB.com. But it is important to note that there are things teams do to beat odds or to squeeze every bit of win potential from their team that don’t show up statistically. This is why a team like the Orioles, or the Royals, can outplay their Pythagorean win-loss or perform better than their statistics profile says they should because they will do things to win a lot of one-run games. That said, those statistics are still very valuable, and most often teams can’t maintain outperforming their major statistical outputs.

I bring this up because the Royals are 17-10. Yesterday, the most recent baseball reference update, they were 16-10, but their Pythagorean win-loss was 15-11. So, in essence, they have stolen a game. The Royals are now 7-4 in one-run games, and 3-0 in extra-inning games. Does that mean, they’re getting lucky and eventually that luck will run out? No, not necessarily. It could mean they’re a team that is well constructed to win close games. More likely, it means that they’re a team that has pitched really well and not hit much, which leads to close games. In some ways, sabermatricians look at outplaying one’s Pythagorean win-loss, or one’s statistical profile, as a bad thing because it suggests that a high win total isn’t sustainable. But the Royals will probably need to out perform their statistical profile in order to make a playoff push this year, only because they get a lot of value from areas that are tougher to measure. They get value defensively. They get value on the base paths. These are the advantages they hold over teams like the Tigers. Those areas are tougher to measure than the value of hitting home runs and striking people out, but they allow you to win tight games.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the “little things” are more important than smashing homeruns. They aren’t. But for the Royals, Life’s a dirty game. They gotta play dirty to win it.

‘We couldn’t do diddley-poo offensively.’

A classic Jim Mora sound byte. My personal favorite is “Playoffs,” but we’re not there yet. This is an obvious theme so I won’t spend much space on it: the Royals are scoring more runs lately. Before this week, they couldn’t do diddley-poo on offense. This week, they were shutout once to start the week but then scored eight, nine, two, and six runs respectively.

‘And like that, poof. He’s gone.’

Chris Getz!? Chris Getz!? Where are you!? Wait, I just remembered I don’t care. Getz has been MIA, and it’s been F-A-N-T-A-S-T-I-C. At first, Ned Yost fed the media some nonsense about allergies, which I had actually never heard before. What professional athlete misses a game because of allergies? These guys play through real injuries, and Getz can’t play because his eyes are itchy? The man plays on grass for a living. What’s he allergic to, extra-base hits? Walks? Hitting above .250? I thought the allergies thing was pretty funny. He started Saturday and Monday, but frankly Elliot Johnson and Miguel Tejada did a much better job in their turns at second base. They aren’t the answer but neither is Getz.

It’s been said before, but it’s Johnny Giavotella time. I know the arguments against, so no need to make them in the comments section. But at this point, Giavotella can’t be worse and has the potential to be much, much better.

That’s all for this week. Hopefully, next week I’ll be writing on the massive win streak the Royals are on.

Sometimes it’s a good idea to just dive in without a plan and see what happens, and that’s what we did this week. There was plenty to discuss about the Royals and we tried to get everything in from clubhouse leadership to Jeff Francoeur‘s role. We also talked about the offense’s troubles, focusing on Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. We brought up questions about sending players down to make adjustments, which lead to talking about Johnny Giavotella versus Chris Getz.

Then we covered the minor leagues, checking in on some of the big name players, marveling that Adalberto Mondesi wants to be called Raul (“Doesn’t that make three Raul Mondesis?”) and wondering about Jason Adam‘s struggles in Double A. We also had to confront Bubba Starling‘s early troubles.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after Moustakas hit a two run home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The month of May will be the ultimate test for the new and improved Kansas City Royals. Beginning with the current series versus the Tampa Rays (which started on April 30), the Royals schedule is stacked with what appears to be one challenge after the next with the exception of a brief respite (knock on wood) when the team visits the Houston Astros for a three game set.

After Tampa leaves town the Royals will face: the Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s, Houston Astros, the Angels (again), St. Louis Cardinals, and then wind up the month (and carry into June) against the Texas Rangers.

Yikes.

After game two versus Tampa (which is underway as I type this up), the Royals with either be 3 or 5 games above .500 for the season…the question on my mind is this: will they be above .500 on June 1?

The good news is that a couple of these teams are struggling. We already mentioned the lowly Astros. As of this writing, the Angels are just 10-17. The Royals play a combined 10 games against these two opponents, which should help. But…the Angels will have to get hot at some point, won’t they? And the White Sox (this weekend’s opponent) have a losing record – but they are always a thorn in this team’s side.

The Yankees seem beatable with a loaded disabled list. They still sit at 16-10, but the Yankee mystique seems to be lacking this year, and the Royals get them at Kansas City this time around.

The Orioles, Cardinals, and A’s seem like they could be trouble, though. And of course the Rangers are always tough to beat.

It won’t be easy (obviously). The Royals offense has been lacking. For all the talk of a need for pitching last winter, we all just assumed the offense (which was also bad) would get better. That Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer would figure it out and round out the lineup with some power. So far…not so much. Although Moose FINALLY had a big game, which included his first 2013 home run, in game 1 versus Tampa.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming schedule, the Royals are going to have to show more balance than we’ve seen thus far. The starting pitching can’t be leaned on as a crutch every night. The offense has to get more consistent. We are seeing signs that it could happen, but it’s got to happen pretty much every time out there in May. The starting pitching (at least those front three) has to keep it up. We haven’t seen much of Mendoza (though he hasn’t been overly impressive) and Wade Davis is a mixed bag. The rotation is much improved, though, no doubt. With James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, the Royals should avoid any prolonged losing streak.

The fire this team has (which took center stage in Tuesday’s rally against the Rays) is the wild card in all of this, in my opinion. We don’t need every guy to go out and play or pitch a perfect game. We just need a team that refuses to quit. That’s what James Shields brings to the table. Well…that and phenomenal pitching. Shields has instilled a fiery, never say die attitude in this clubhouse. And it might be just enough to carry this team through when slumps strike or (god forbid) injuries hit.

So…where will this team be on June 1? It’s hard to say, but I know this much…it’s going to be a hell of a fun ride. And for the record (you didn’t think I’d cop out on a prediction, did you?), I think when May comes to an end the Kansas City Royals will have a 28-25 record and be very much in the thick of things. Who knows…maybe when they make a trade this year, the team will be helping itself for a change, rather than sending key pieces to playoff contenders. Wouldn’t that be a nice change of pace?

September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas (8) celebrates with teammate Jeff Francoeur (21) after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals gave him the day off in the first game of the series against Cleveland, sitting him against lefty Scott Kazmir. Prior to that, Moustakas had doubled and walked in his last two plate appearances in the Royals extra innings win in Detroit. He pinch hit against the Indians on Saturday, grounding out.

He entered Sunday’s double header with a .152/.222/.197 line. Awful for sure.

But he has shown some signs of getting back on track, even if slowly. In Game 1, he walked three times and singled. Two of his walks started two out rallies and the third came with the bases loaded. In Game 2, he went 1-4 with a hard-hit double to left field. That put him on base in five of eight plate appearances and added two hits to his totals.

He leaves Sunday with a .169/.263/.225 line. Still not good, but compared to where he started the day, a lot of improvement. More than just bumping his numbers up, he looked more comfortable at the plate and drove the ball better on his double. The Royals said it may be a couple of days before the adjustments he’d been making started to bear fruit and maybe – maybe – this is the first step towards getting right.

Moustakas is certainly not out of the danger zone yet. He had an error in the nightcap of the double header that could have been a double header but should have been at least a force out. If he turns the double play, the inning is over. Instead, the Indians scored two runs in the first. There’s always the concern that a player takes offensive struggles to the field with them and maybe he’s pressing in the field. On Wednesday he had another big error that led to four runs against the Tigers.

So it’s little by little, step by step. Moustakas gained a bit of statistical traction on Sunday, but it stands out as a bigger day because the Royals are only 22 games into the season and any big day makes up a bigger percentage of the season’s numbers. Got to love the small sample size fluctuations. More doubles, more home runs will start to put minds at ease. There are positives to be found in a day like Sunday, though. Moustakas wasn’t flailing, trying to make something happen (and, in fact, has the second most walks on the team behind Billy Butler).

Maybe it’s just grasping for straws and Moustakas has to end up in Omaha no matter what, but if that turns out to be the case, seeing him get above the Mendoza line before it happens would be a bit more comforting.

April 25, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) receives congratulations from second baseman Chris Getz (17) after hitting a grand slam home run in the tenth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know about you but I’m starting to feel this team might be a legitimate contender. I know some of you have felt that way since Spring Training but I needed some convincing. Now I’m not quite ready to go into full blown Game On mode but the last week and a half was encouraging. They went 4-3 on a road trip to Atlanta, Boston and Detroit, and held the lead in every game, meaning they came close to winning all seven. They have actually been in every game all season with the largest loss coming in at 4 runs. I guess this what happens when you have a competent rotation. Now on to the six pack.

1.  James Shields has been as good as advertised. He’s put up a 130 ERA+ through five starts and is averaging exactly 7 innings each time out. Ervin Santana (163 ERA+) is averaging 7.2 and Jeremy Guthrie (107 ERA+) is averaging 6.4. Dayton Moore’s plan to increase innings and performance is working as intended. I wasn’t thrilled with the way DM rebuilt the rotation but I’m not letting that ruin my enjoyment of what I’ve witnessed thus far.
2. I’ve joined the send Mike Moustakas to Omaha bandwagon. Moose is simply overmatched right now and  a month long sabbatical up north may be what he needs to get going. Since June 1st of last year he’s put up just a .218/.272/.355 line, so it’s not like his struggles are a recent thing. Those numbers are a little too close to the .217/.268/.339 Jeff Francoeur has produced in the same time frame for my tastes. It’s hard to argue that Moose has basically morphed into Frenchy at this point.
3. Remember when people wanted to move Greg Holland out of the closer’s spot? That was fun. In his last 4 appearances he struck out 9 of the 12 batters he faced. He’s back.
4. So it turns out that George Kottaras does exist. For someone who hasn’t played much this year he was as cool as a cucumber Thursday afternoon. He wouldn’t swing at Phil Coke‘s assortment of junk and ended up drawing a bases loaded walk. Two batters later, this happened. Kottara now has 2 walks on the season. That matches Frenchy and is 1 more than Chris Getz and Salvador Perez have drawn.
5. Speaking of Frenchy…….what happened to that short leash he’s allegedly on? He’s having a worse season than last year and has shown no sign of going on one of his infamous hot streaks. It’s hard to see how the Royals would be worse with Jarrod Dyson playing three or more times a week in his place. Dyson is better defensively and on the basepaths, and at, you know, getting on base. It’s true that Frenchy has more power but he’s not actually put that on display this year.
6. Weather permitting, the Royals begin a ten game homestand today. The went 4-2 during their first two series at The K, which is a far cry from their home woes of last April. This is a different team and I think anything less than 6 wins can be considered a disappointment.

April 25, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) hits a single in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

There was a lot of concern about how the Royals would handle a tough road trip. So they went out and won four out of seven games. Take away one misplaced Kelvin Herrera pitch to Daniel Nava and a 5-2 trip could have been the result. They ended a 10 game winning streak when they beat Atlanta in the second game of the series and ended Boston’s seven game winning streak by sweeping the Sunday double header.

They’re playing well and a homestand with a four game series against Cleveland is a good chance to pad their lead in the AL Central.

The big win before leaving Detroit on Thursday washed the bad taste out of their mouths after a miserable first game of the series and there’s a chance at building some momentum.

Other thoughts:

-Billy Butler is starting to heat up. I don’t think there was much concern about him, but with Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas already scuffling, Butler starting out cold wasn’t helping the offense at all. He’s currently working on a four game hitting streak and reached base all four times on Thursday. He’s walking a ton, so despite a .256 average right now, he’s still second on the team in on base percentage and third in OPS. He’ll be fine.

-Moustakas had a key walk in the tenth inning on Thursday after doubling down the line earlier in the game. He’s still having a tough start to the year and has just 4 hits in his last 37 at bats. His infield popups are out of control – he’s hit eight infield popups already this year and hasn’t seen many line drives. His Wednesday performance was awful, as his error in the fourth inning led to four runs scoring while he left six runners on base.

Generally, I think the “Send him down!” camp can be reactionary when it comes to early struggles, but in this case, he’s having problems with his swing and it’s getting to him in the field. Frustration is understandable, but when it starts to interfere in the field, the problems just compound. There’s a point where he needs the mental break as well as a chance to rebuild his swing and he’s very close to it.

The Royals aren’t likely to send him to Omaha yet, but if he struggles on the homestand, he could end up being optioned so he can focus on getting things right as well as rebuilding some confidence. The team says they’ve found the problem, but also hinted that they’re giving him more games before they start making harder decisions. Miguel Tejada and Elliot Johnson would probably fill in for him if he was sent down, and while neither are attractive as full time options, Moustakas isn’t hitting, so it’s not like they’d be any worse over a month.

-I hesitate to say it, because I don’t want to jinx it, but I think that Eric Hosmer may be finding his way out of the woods. Hosmer, like Butler, is working on a four game hitting streak in which he’s gotten seven hits in 15 at bats while also working two walks. Even better? He drilled a double on Wednesday night and then had another in his first at bat against Justin Verlander on Thursday. He’s seeing a lot of pitches and he’s chasing a lot less than over the last two years, so if he starts to get some power going, there may be a collective sigh of relief in the Kansas City area.

I was surprised, given the early struggles, that Hosmer was third on the team in on base percentage with a solid .377 mark (nine points better than Alex Gordon, even). Last April he had 16 hits in 85 at bats. This April, he has 15 in 52. Oh, and he’s also in line to be eligible for Super Two status this offseason, which earns him a fourth year of salary arbitration.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) walks back to dugout after striking out against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

There shouldn’t be much to complain about this year. The Royals are 10-8 right now and sitting in first place. They actually look like a pretty good team. But . . .What about those young bats?

The Royals shipped super prospect Wil Myers and his bat out for pitching, improving a well below average rotation with the hopes of young hitters, specifically Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, making their marks at the plate in 2013. We’d seen flashes of brilliance from both (especially Hosmer) and much of the high hopes for this year were pinned on the dynamic duo. So far, however, not only are the pair not hitting for power (as a corner infielder ideally should) they aren’t hitting much at all.

Brian Henry recently did a nice write-up on Hosmer and pitch selection, and followed with another piece regarding the team’s offensive woes. Hosmer hit a double and walked twice during game one versus Detroit…so I’ll throw the spotlight on Moose this time around. He’s the one I’m more concerned about at this point (although both are worrisome).

Moustakas started hot in 2012 before flaming out over the last half of the season. That slump has apparently not only carried over, but gotten worse. So what gives? To my non-trained eye, it seems like he’s flying open at the plate, not waiting on the ball, but getting out in front and making weak contact. Now…that’s just my opinion, so I figured we better look at some numbers as well.

Going over to Fangraphs for some batted ball info, we see his ground ball/fly ball ratio is low (0.39)…as he’s making weak contact and popping the ball in the air more than anything this year. He’s hitting fly balls 63.3% of the time, with a 19.4% infield fly rate. Further evidence of his weak contact (as if we needed proof) in his 12.2% line drive rate. In 2012, that rate was at 16.4%, and in more limited time in 2011 he posted a line drive rate of just above 20%.

Moving along to pitch type, it looks like pitchers are showing him less of the hard stuff as he picks up at bats. The percentage of four seam fastballs he’s seen has dropped each year, going from 42.5% in 2011 to 32.2% in 2012 on down to 23.6% so far in 2013. At the same time, he’s seen more two seamers and cutters this year…which shows the pitchers making some adjustments to Moustakas as he makes his away around the league again and again. He’s also being given less curves and change-ups, with a slight increase in sinkers and sliders.

Looking at Pitch f/x, and more specifically, pitch values/100, Moustakas showed improvement versus the four seam fastball in 2012, which (obviously) explains why he’s seen less of them. That said, he’s taken a step back against the heater this year. He’s really only handling two pitches at an above average clip in 2013 – the splitter and sinker, which he sees less than 10% of the time combined. He’s been terrible against the two seam and cut fastball, which of course is why he’s seen an increased diet of those pitches.

Given this information, the obvious conclusion is simple: pitchers are figuring what he can’t hit. Not to mention, they’re giving him less to hit. The number of pitches inside the strike zone against Moose have continually declined since he debuted. In 2011, pitchers went after him, throwing 50.9% of their  pitches inside the zone. In 2012, that number dipped to 46.4%, and now Moose sees just 43.1% in the strike zone. That said, he only swings at 32.5% of those pitches thrown out of the zone, which is a 2% improvement from last year. His contact rates have also jumped up this year. So while they aren’t feeding him as many hittable balls, he’s not necessarily chasing them any worse than he has before. While he’s improved a bit in that regard, Moose still ranks (prior to Wedensday’s game) 70 of 98 among qualified AL batters in O-Swing% (percent of outside the zone swings).

The last number I’ll throw at you is F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage). Moustakas falls behind 0-1 in 66.1% of his at bats. In 2012, that number was 54.1%, which gives him a sizeable decline of 12% thus far.

Miguel Tejada: short term answer at third? Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

What it all boils down to, it seems, is this: adjustments are not being made, at least not by Moustakas. The opposing pitchers are most definitely adjusting. And again, to my naked eye, his swing mechanics are all kinds of messed up this year. Seems like a formula of Poor Discipline + Lack of Adjustments + Flawed Mechanics = Trouble. And if he doesn’t figure things out soon, it’s time for the Royals front office to decide whether the combo of Miguel Tejada and Elliot Johnson does less to hurt the team. If the team is better off (for now) finding a work around…maybe it’s time for Moose to head north. A few weeks in Omaha might be just what the doctor ordered.

Cubs Manager Dave Sveum recently made headlines by calling out his players (including star player Starlin Castro), saying players needed to be aware “that there are things that can be done if you don’t start performing.”

Hell…Billy Butler was sent back down at one point, why not Moose?

Moose is not hitting for power…or hitting much at all, so far in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals batting order is currently suffering from the worst sports related power outage since the Super Bowl. They sit at 8-6 after winning behind the starting pitching in Atlanta, but as of Thursday morning’s team stats (according to Baseball Reference), the Royals have the fourth worst SLG and fifth worst OPS in the American League.

What we’ve confirmed after 14 games is that starting pitching does indeed make a world of difference. For a team who is dead last in home runs in the AL with a whopping 5 (the Braves hit that many against KC in game 1)…pitching has made all the difference in the world. With a little extra pop, the Royals might sit at 10-4 (or at least 9-5) right now. Not a huge difference, I know, but for a team that can’t afford to give away victories, those games we “could’ve” or “should’ve” won will add up.

So…where’s all the power?

Well, so far, Billy Butler (not surprisingly) leads the team with 2 homers…and we have 1 each from Jeff Francoeur, Alcides Escobar, and Chris Getz (who just hit his first ever home run in a Royals uniform). The problem here is…Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador Perez have zero. All middle of the order bats, all young guys Dayton Moore is counting on step up in a big way this year…and so far…zilch. And Moustakas doesn’t look remotely good at the plate right now.

Getz and Escobar have flashed more pop than the middle of the order bats…Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

What’s the plan moving forward then? Ned Yost has shuffled the lineup around a bit, partly due to some interleague games, partly due to cold (or hot) hitting by certain players. But do we want another season of 4 different lineups every week? Shuffling the hot hitters into key spots and moving the slumping batters down (like the ice-cold Moose, who hit seventh in the second game at Atlanta)? Ideally…no. In a perfect world, we’d have a pretty set lineup – at least with guys we know will produce from leadoff down through the sixth spot in the order.

Here’s what we know: Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, and Billy Butler all look like guys we can count on to play their respective roles. Lorenzo Cain (I hesitate to praise him, due to cursing him last year) has looked great so far and has moved into the fifth spot in the lineup. Salvador Perez looks like he will hit…but is he a real cleanup hitter? Probably not…at least not yet.

And then we have Moose and Hosmer. The corner infielders who, in a perfect world would at least combine for 50 homers. Moose, though, has yet to pull out of a tailspin that began midway through the 2012 season, and Hosmer…he looks like he’s got the right approach…but where’s the power? I’m not saying Hos won’t develop into a 25+ home run threat, but when will it happen? This year? Next year? Three years from now? Remember how long Gordon struggled before figuring it out?

How long can this team stay above .500 relying on pitching and defense…squeaking out 1-0 or 3-2 games? There have been flashes of an explosive offense this year…but if the offense can’t pick up the slack, and doesn’t have at least a couple of guys other pitchers are afraid can change the game in one swing…this time might be dealing with the opposite of what has dragged it down in the past. It used to be the pitching stunk and put too much pressure on the offense…now the offense might be so bad the pitching suffers from those side effects.

Hopefully a couple of these guys figure it out, and fast. Until then…I think Yost should consider going outside the box a bit with the lineup and follow the blueprint laid out in The Book (that I mentioned back in February). It would probably come out pretty unorthodox, at least for the time being, but man, for a team coming up woefully short on their plan to hit more homers…something’s gotta give.

For a history of the franchise’s struggles with walks go check out this post by Rany last year.  Last year the Royals were dead last in the majors in walk rate at 6.6%, while the average rate is typically 8 to 8.5%.  As constructed the line-up in 2013 will not likely improve significantly in walk rate:

Salvador Perez has never shown a propensity to walk.  A 4% or so walk rate is the expectation, and getting above 5% would be shocking and exciting.

Eric Hosmer coming through the minors was supposed to have good pitch recognition, and his walk rates were great, walking 11.6% of the time.  He will probably have a walk rate of 9% or better and be a bright spot on this team for this particular facet.

Chris Getz has been named the 2B starter as expected.  He has been around long enough that we know what he is, and that is a below average walker.  He will have a 7% walk rate, give or take half a percent.

Alcides Escobar has managed to put up 6.5% walk rates only twice in any major or minor league season.  The last two years he has walked in 4.2% of PAs, so better than 5% is not likely.

Mike Moustakas may actually be able to put up average walk rates at some point in his career, but so far he has not at the major league level.  His major league time, about a year and a half, says that a 6.5% walk rate is the expectation with some hope for improvement as he ages.

Mar 16, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals batter Mike Moustakas (8) hits a home run in the third inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at HoHoKam stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon knows how to take a walk.  He finished 35^th in the majors in walk percentage last year with a 10.1% rate.

Lorenzo Cain has gone back and forth on walks.  Projections have him hanging around 7% mostly.  He may be able to be better than that, but it remains to be seen in the big leagues.

Jeff Francoeur’s disdain for the walk has been well chronicled.  Hopefully there is a platoon partner at the least to offset him.  Jarrod Dyson seems to be decent at walking, but David Lough, not so much.  The plate appearances for the outfielders not named Gordon or Cain could help if Francoeur does not get a majority of the plate appearances.

Billy Butler is almost certainly going to be above average in walk rate.  He has been, and he is a very good hitter.  Last year he walked at an 8% rate, but he was better than that in each of the three seasons prior.  That puts him with Alex Gordon and Hosmer as the only players we should expect above average walks from.

Those players are going to cover the majority of Royal plate appearances in 2013 unless injuries or something unforseen changes things significantly.  If more than three of the nine places in the line-up are above average it would be surprising.  Even if that happens, Perez, Escobar, and Frenchy are likely to be way below average, and Moose and Getz will likely be below average, which is going to be hard to make up for.  Getting this team to an 8% walk rate would be amazing, and I am not expecting it.

This one thing could preclude the Royals from being an above average offense this year.  Typically there are only two ways to make up for a lack of ability in getting on base, and one of those things is luck.  Counting on luck aside, power is the only way to make significant headway.  Last year the Royals were a middle of the pack team in slugging if you look at the major leagues, but only 10th in the AL.  That says to me that the only way this offense is above average is for more power to come from Moose, Hosmer, Cain, and Perez.  The others are either already sources of power (Billy), or will never be (Getz).  Off-season comments from Ned Yost make me think the Royals are at least aware of this, and in a week we will start to see if a more powerful version of your Kansas City Royals can make this team more competitive.

They’re coming off two games in which they scored a combined 30 runs, including some big days for Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella. It’s been expected that the two would go to the last day before the team made a decision, and as it stands now, their numbers are close.

Giavotella:

Getz:

The difference is still the Getz homer, but they’re otherwise about as even as you can get. There’s a lot of time for the battle to play out, and for one or the other to get separation. The weekend’s games saw both get three hits, first with Giavotella doing damage against the Giants and Getz’s answer against the Angels. The big days and small sample size gave both a boost in the numbers.

Also, apparently Giavotella has earned the nickname of “Wreck-It Ralph”. According to Jonah Keri, it’s because he has long arms and large hands for being only 5’8″. I guess I’d never noticed that before…

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) hits a double in the third inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

-Two interesting takes on the same situation: Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star and Dick Kaegel of the Royals official site talked with Mike Moustakas. Dutton was able to coax a slight admission that an injured knee may have resulted in Moustaka’s struggles at the plate in the second half, but Kaegel made a point to let Moustakas and Ned Yost dismiss the notion.

Dutton’s passage:

Moustakas now admits, albeit grudgingly, that a sprained right knee suffered July 28 in Seattle might have been a factor. He suffered the injury while making a diving stop in the first inning on a Casper Wells grounder.

“It’s whatever you guys want to make of it,” Moustakas said. “It definitely didn’t feel like it was 100 percent, but that didn’t affect me on the field. Any time I step on the field, my body is 100 percent.”

And Kaegel’s:

Did the knee injury affect his bat?

“No, I’m not going to ever be one to make excuses,” Moustakas said. “I was on the field, so I was 100 percent. Any time I’m on the field, there’s nothing wrong with me. I’ll go out and play as if everything was 100 percent, and that’s how you have to approach the game.”

Both did point out the splits pre- and post-injury, and Damion Mandalas Royal Revival provided a nice examination of this question a couple of weeks ago. I’m convinced that, despite Moose’s pleas to the contrary, there was something affecting his performance. That it coincides with a documented injury is awfully coincidental to me. Good news is that he’s healthy now and hitting the ball well.

- Salvador Perez (Venezuela) and Luis Mendoza (Mexico) should be back with the team on Tuesday after their teams were eliminated from the World Baseball Classic. Eric Hosmer is still with Team USA as they move onto the second round. He’s 3-13 but blew the game open against Canada on Sunday with a bases-clearing double in the ninth inning. Tim Collins is with him in Miami, while Irving Falu (Puerto Rico), Miguel Tejada, Atahualpa Severino, and Kelvin Herrera (all the Dominican Republic) are still active in the WBC as well. Tony Botts says that might not be a good thing, though.

- Finally, I had to share some comments from J.J. Cooper on Twitter. Cooper is the primary writer for Baseball America when it comes to Royals prospects, so he sees Kansas City’s minor leaguers often. He was discussing Adalberto Mondesi today and noted:

• He’s bulked up a bit, from 167 pounds to 180.
• He’s grown an inch, from 6′ even last year this time to 6’1″.
• A scout suggested that Mondesi could end up with more power from the shortstop position than current top Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar.
• There’s still a lot of projection still, but Mondesi hit .290/.346/.386 in the Royals highest level of rookie ball. He did that at an age when Wil Myers was “getting ready for his prom as a junior in [high school]“. Mondesi turns 18 in July.

Since general manager Dayton Moore took over, the number that everyone discussed was 2013: the year where all of the Royals fans’ woes would dissipate, and the baseball heavens would part and the gods themselves would reach down and pluck the Royals from disparity to the peak of baseball lore that is the World Series.

Well fans, everyone check your calendars, watches or smart phones: it’s time. The waves of prospects, which were promised to Kansas City fans by Moore and his team of talent evaluators, are beginning to arrive, if they haven’t already. Some fans are still bitter about the loss of the former No. 1 overall prospect Wil Myers. However, there is no need to hit the panic button, yet, since we still have some tremendous athletes in the system and some big time arms waiting in the shadows. However, those guys have little impact on the “now.”

No, the “now” rests solely on the shoulders of three young stars-in-the-waiting and a group of veterans desperate for postseason relevancy. Those young stars are without a doubt first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas and catcher Salvador Perez. If the Royals even hope to be in the hunt come October, the team can ill afford to field a lineup while missing anyone of these stars for any duration of time. If at any point we find two of the three stars out of the lineup for a prolonged stretch, that window of opportunity Moore has worked for, could close faster than Michael Jordan’s baseball dream.

September 05, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) connects for a double in the sixth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, two of the three players, Moustakas and Perez, are no strangers to injuries over the past few seasons. Perez obviously put together a stellar second-half of the season in 2012 after bouncing back from a successful knee surgery (.301 BA/.471 SLG/.798 OPS). But not only did Perez inflict some serious damage, with what looks to be a freshly chopped log in those massive hands of his, the young catcher flashed some serious leather: Ivan Rodriguez-type leather. Perez threw out 42 percent of base-threats while picking off five runners, which happened to be a Royals record. The catch? He did this all in just 74 games. Take that for what it is, but that’s still ridiculous scary numbers. Perez is the real deal, as long as his body holds up under the stress of his 6-foot-3, 245-pound frame.

Moustakas, who battled minor lower-half injuries, was still able to play in 149 games, but his numbers reflected his youth (.242/.412/.708). The youthful third baseman did show some serious flashes of power, belting 20 home runs over the season, while tallying 79 RBIs. The fans got a healthy dosage of Moustakas’ highlight-reel style of defensive play. Moose has a cannon attached to his right shoulder, as well as, the instincts inside the baseline when charging down a tight roping bunt. Moustakas needs to desperately cut down his strikeouts (124) and really focus on putting the ball in play more frequently with consistent and hard contact.

Now, it’s time to address the elephant in the room. Every Royals fan is aware of one of the biggest offensive letdowns of the season. Hosmer (.232/.304/.663), who has been tabbed as a “can’t miss” prospect, had a proverbial swing and a miss type season in 2012. And by swing and a miss, I mean he swung and missed, a lot. The Florida native had a dismal season racking up 95 strikeouts at the plate and while also, only connecting on 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. At times, it was really hard to watch Hosmer struggle. With as sweet of a swing that the tall and wirery first baseman has, the numbers just weren’t there. When he has a chance to forget about the past season, and enjoy the moment of this season, I have a feeling the young stud will really ‘wow’ his critics from last year and his numbers are sure to surge come July.

Look, it’s been hard enough on Royals fans for the past few decades. Having as many young prospects and promising talent dangled in front our faces can be hard to process at times when it appears the team has fallen into a rut. But, I challenge all true fans in blue to be patient, but have great expectations of these three young men. The franchise has already confirmed its faith in the stars of the future, as should all. When all three shining stars play to their potential, this Royals’ lineup will be one wicked challenge for American League pitchers for years to come.

Jul 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) runs the bases after hitting a home run in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Moustakas started off hot last season and looked like he was going to live up to his potential. On May 15th he was hitting .310/.371/.540 but then went into a slump that encompassed the rest of the season. He hit .224/.278/.380 from May 16th on. Though he clearly didn’t, it seemed like he popped up every other at bat. Luckily he never took his struggles out onto the field where he remained a defensive stud all season. That’s probably one area where he’ll always best Myers. But I imagine the amount of people who hope he becomes the next Joe Randa number in the zeroes. Meaning, above average defense or not, his value ultimately lies in his bat.

You guys know my shtick by now, I’m a comp addict, I enjoy looking to the future by looking at the past. Like I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Moose will outperform Myers over the long run, but I do believe he’ll have a fine career. So I fired up the play index machine to see how players with similar age 23 seasons fared for the rest of their respective careers. I usually do these searches by OPS+ but I changed it up today and instead looked for players with 18-22 home runs and an OBP of less than .300. Not counting Moose, PI spit out four such seasons.

Chris Davis – 2009
21 HR, .284 OBP

Davis was fantastic in 2008 when he hit .285/.331/.549 as a 22 year old rookie. He was unable to carry that success over into 2009 as his OPS+ fell from 128 to 85. He totaled just 346 plate appearances over the next two seasons hitting an uninspiring .238/.295/.361 in the process. Davis rebounded at 26 this past season with Baltimore where he hit .270/.326/.501 with 33 home runs.

Juan Encarnacion – 1999
19 HR, .287 OBP

Encarnacion also had success as a 22 year old rookie posting a 134 OPS+ in 175 plate appearances. Like Davis, he was unable to carry that over into his age 23 season. What’s interesting about that season was that he never posted a higher slugging percentage or lower on-base percentage again. At 24 he hit .289/.330/.433 but hit only 14 home runs. At 26 he hit a career high 24 home runs and at 27 put up career bests in doubles (37) and RBIs (94). For his career he hit .270/.317/.441 with a 97 OPS+.

Matt Williams – 1989
18 HR, .242 OBP

I was reluctant to add Williams because of the significant difference in OBP but ultimately decided to because Moose’s career could end up very similar to Williams’ when all is said and done. There are several similarities that influenced my decision. Like Moose, Williams was a power hitter who seldom walked. He was also a fantastic defender who ended his career with four Gold Gloves. Did I mention he too was a first round draft pick? I adore this comp.

At age 24 all Williams did was hit 33 home runs while driving in a league leading 122 runs. He put up a 123 OPS+, which was good, but not as good as the 129 he posted at age 25 when hit 34 home runs. After a miserable age 26 season he became an elite hitter and at ages 27-30 posted a 144 OPS+. He averaged 32 home runs during those four seasons. Williams finished his career with a .268/.317/.489 slash line, 113 OPS+, six 30+ home run seasons and ten 20+ home runs seasons. It’s not outrageous to suggest that Moose could match or better those numbers.

Rico Petrocelli – 1966
18 HR, .295 OBP

Petrocelli is as close comp-wise as you can get. His career numbers, specifically his .300 OBP and 90 OPS+, after his age 23 season are identical to what Moose has produced thus far. He put up a .330 OBP, 17 home runs and a 113 OPS+ at age 24 but a chronic elbow problem saw his numbers nose dive at 25 (.292 OBP, 12 HR, 96 OPS+). I’ve mentioned before that age 26 is the sweet spot in Royals history and that holds true to this list as well. Three of the four comps had their best home run season at that age, Petrocelli included. He hit 40 home runs that season while also putting up career bests in OBP (.403) and OPS+ (168). I’d be curious to know what changed in his approach, because after having never walked 50 times in a season before, he drew 98 that year. He hit 29 and 28 home runs the next two seasons but then his power all but disappeared. From age 29 to the end of his career he hit just 53 home runs. He finished his career with a .332 OBP, 108 OPS+ and 210 home runs.

“Mooses?” (more…)

Last year was a significant year for the Royals.  Many of their very talented prospects were making their major league debuts.  Eric Hosmer was the first to be called up in early May and then in June he was joined by Mike Moustakas.  In August, the Royals gave the call to Johnny Giavotella and Salvador Perez.  While all of those guys show a tremendous amount of promise, Moustakas could change the way we view 3rd base in Kansas City for many years to come.  Not only is he excelling defensively, which wasn’t expected, he’s also providing timely hits and a lot of pop at the plate.

I’ve been extremely impressed with how his defense has improved.  Night in and night out he is making web gem caliber plays.  What’s just as exciting is knowing that he will be a force in the middle of the lineup in Kansas City for many years to come.  Moose could be the leader that changes the trend of how we have viewed our third basemen in years past.  He has taken several steps this year that would indicate he’ll be able to put up 30 home runs or more, each year, for the forseeable future.

August 28, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; MLB umpire Phil Cuzzi (10) gives Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland (10) results of a play review in the ninth inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Greg Holland was trying to protect a 9-8 lead after a leadoff walk and groundout put Austin Jackson on second. A wild pitch to Miguel Cabrera put Jackson on third with just one out. Holland escaped with a big strikeout on a slider to take a sac fly or RBI ground out away from the Tigers options to tie.

After an intentional walk to Prince Fielder, Holland’s first pitch to Delmon Young was driven deep to the right field corner and ruled foul. The Tigers questioned the ruling and multiple replays showed different looking results. It appeared to land in fair territory, but one replay showed the ball going behind the pole. The umpires upheld the ruling. One the next pitch, Young flew out to Alex Gordon in left.

How does the ball disappear behind the pole from both angles? It’s like David Blaine hit it.

— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) August 29, 2012

The win secured the Royals first winning August since 2000 with a current 15-11 record in the month and three games to go.

It’s a good thing too. The Royals almost squandered a rare opportunity against Justin Verlander.

In 21 career starts entering Tuesday night’s game, Verlander had thrown 141 innings against the Royals for a 2.36 ERA and a 134 to 37 K/BB ratio. Earlier this season, Verlander threw a complete game and another eight innings against the Royals and gave up just four runs between both. In the first inning tonight, the Tigers scored three runs off of Luis Mendoza and it seemed like that would probably be enough.

Instead the Royals put up three of their own in the bottom of the inning to tie it, all with two outs. The big hit was a two run single by Mike Moustakas, who had three hits and three RBI on the night, hopefully signs he’s shaking out of a slump. The Royals scored four more in the second on five straight hits. The Tigers scraped back and ended up tying the game in the top of the eight after a Jhonny Peralta homer. In response, Moustakas doubled in Lorenzo Cain after he stole second pinch-running for Billy Butler in the bottom of the eighth to retake the lead.

Then came the Holland save.

It was his eighth save since taking over for Jonathan Broxton and the most dramatic so far.

The Royals racked up 15 hits, including three singles from Butler. Gordon added two more doubles to his league-leading total, and Sal Perez had two as well. The first six hitters had 13 of the hits tonight and Gordon, Butler and Moustakas all drove in multiple runs. It was just enough to get by tonight.

April 10, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) loses his bat during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Late August is the hardest time to be a Royals fan. They’re out of any type of race other than a race for top draft picks in 2013.

They’re not calling up any young prospects of the future for at least a few days and maybe not even then. They’re stuck in this state of mediocre baseball and near hopelessness.

By now, we pretty clearly have a sense of who the 2012 Royals are: an extremely inconsistent team with players still learning what it takes to be successful at the major league level. Eric Hosmer has disappointed to a level I’ve never seen before when we consider expectations (granted I’m only 26). Mike Moustakas has been decent but not jaw dropping. He continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, and watching him swing and miss at the same pitches over and over again makes me want to throw objects at a television … my television to be specific.

I point to Hosmer and Moustakas only because they are the poster children for this new wave of talent meant to push the Royals back to prominence. But of course they are not the sole holders of blame. Starting pitching has been terrible (as most thought it would be). Jeff Francoeur has been atrocious (as many thought he probably would be). And some of the moves made by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore have been awful (as anyone with brain cells knew they would be).

Now, we’re stuck in this purgatory, a holding pattern, and it feels like eating plain bread. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Wil Myers. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Jake Odorizzi. Right now, all we have are dreams of the future, and those dreams are opaque at best.

That’s why I hate late August for the Royals. When we get to September, we can at least sink into the warm delusion of our strong Septembers. Last season the Royals went 15-10 with what many considered to be a glimpse into their lineup of the future. Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Hosmer, and Moustakas were all in the majors, and the Royals started winning. Fans could then delude themselves into thinking that this was proof of future success. I want that delusion to get here already. Much like in the movie Inception, I need the dream world because it’s much better than the real world (or something like that … I don’t know that movie was super confusing).

The only pieces of the puzzle left are Myers, Odorizzi, and a pitcher to be named. Maybe that pitcher will be John Lamb or Yordano Ventura or Kyle Smith or Kyle Zimmer. Who knows? Maybe it will be a free agent (I doubt it). But for now, we’re left only to stew in this place of wonderlessness.

You see, wonder is what drives the passion of Royals fans. We wonder what the future will bring (I’m using “wonder” as a double entendre). We look at our future with a sense of wonder. We look at players like Myers and Odorizzi with a sense of wonder. It’s what keeps us going as fans. If we can’t wonder, morale drops like Francoeur’s batting average after facing a righty for one game.

The wonder is off both Hosmer and Moustakas. I’m not saying they won’t be great players. They might be, and if they do become great players it will be wonderful. But it won’t be the same thing we feel when everything is possibility, as it is with Myers and Odorizzi, as it is with next season.

I need September to get here. I need to see the future Royals so I can replace the sense of stuckness I feel now with a sense of wonder.

Over the last few days, Myers as been playing at third base, rather than his typical center field. This is after moving him from right field to center, which only followed after moving him from catcher to the outfield.

Wil Myers at third base. (Photo: Minda Haas)

The musical chairs act hasn’t affected his hitting, but it seemed like 2012 would be a year where the Royals could tolerate any passable defense in right field so long as Myers was hitting. He’s hit. There have been some rough patches, but his overall line is strong. He can take a walk. He hits for power. He’s struck out more this season but he’s still around a .300 batting average and the tradeoff is more power numbers.

Sure, versatility isn’t a bad thing and you never know when he may be called to play third base at some point in an emergency situation, but according to Robert Ford of 610 Sports, the Royals feel that third base is Myers’s strongest position.

This raises a few questions. First, if they felt third base is his best position, what led them to that conclusion? The handful of innings in June at the position? Pre-game fungo sessions? Why not start him at third base once he shed the catching gear with the option of the outfield ready if the experiment failed?

It smacks of moving a player around for the sake of moving a player around, to me.

Wil Myers was stuck in the minors to learn the outfield and get comfortable, with an eye towards moving into right field. He’s blocked by the Jeff Francoeur contract for the rest of this season and despite showing that he was worthy of a look at the big league level as early as June, it’s almost September and he’s probably not going to be called up to the majors this season.

I’ll guess that the Royals will keep him in Omaha to let him win the Pacific Coast League with his team. Then I’ll guess that they’ll suggest that he’s not ready at third and want him to get more work there and they have Mike Moustakas there too, so they can’t bring him up to start 2013. Most likely, that’s the game the service time clock, which isn’t an awful idea in theory, but it’s counter to every statement the Royals have made that they want to win now and have the best players up and want to bring young players up when they’ve shown they’re ready. They seem fully prepared to let Myers just stay there.

Eric Hosmer came up after a month of Triple A. Moustakas spent about a year there. Danny Duffy was up after two Omaha months. Did the philosophy change, or is the target moving around again? If they’re concerned about the struggles of Hosmer and Moustakas, well say that. Say “we brought some players up we thought were ready and they’ve done well but we may want to take another track this time.” Good enough for me. Don’t keep switching positions and sitting on veterans and tell me the .300 hitter who leads the minors in homers isn’t ready to hit at this level.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Myers is ready. He could play a reasonable right field in the majors. Or, at least, he can be as good riight now as Francoeur has been. This year, Francoeur hasn’t shown good range and while his arm is still potent, it’s not as valuable as it was last season, according to FanGraphs. It might make it to that level by season’s end, but even with the arm, his range is so bad he still struggles to keep up. Also, his arm is only good for anything if he can get to the ball. Surely Myers could make the same plays Francoeur has and probably make plays he hasn’t.

Ford suggests that Myers could be an option to spell Moustakas at third on days against left-handed pitching. That could be an option and you’d want to have the player ready for that scenario, but why now? He’s never played third (and it shows, according to Lee Warren and Minda Haas), and now a month and a half in Triple A will be enough time to plug him in there, yet a year in right field (a less demanding defensive position on the defensive spectrum) isn’t enough time to try him while he’s mashing the ball?

I don’t get it.

Sure, there are roster logistics at play. Myers would have to be added to the 40 man roster, but with a week left before September, does Francisley Bueno need his spot? Is Adam Moore a priority? Are Jason Bourgeois and Ryan Verdugo and Tommy Hottovy vital to this organization? Chris Getz is right there, ready to be put on the 60 day disabled list, too. There are ways to make it work.

But maybe I’m looking for a conspiracy where none exists. Maybe I’m so conditioned by curious decision making by this organization that it’s jaded me to the point that it all starts to feel arbitrary. If so, I’ll accept that charge.

Moustakas is showing signs that he could be a supreme defensive third baseman and can also be a force at the plate for extended stretches. Myers isn’t going to replace him defensively.

I mean, if I’m overreacting, please tell me. At this point, the Royals have said that they felt they had enough pitching, then had to call on Ryan Verdugo, Vin Mazzaro, Nathan Adcock and others in Spot Start Roulette after injuries mowed down Duffy and Felipe Paulino. They’ve sent Alex Gordon and Billy Butler down after struggles in the not-so-distant past, but Eric Hosmer was left to swipe at the low and away pitch all summer. They made a point to see what Jarrod Dyson could do in center, but haven’t afforded the same opportunity to Johnny Giavotella while letting Yuniesky Betancourt play the majority of the time at second until his release.

Now, the new narrative may turn out to be “We want to see more of Wil at third and evaluate where that fits our ballclub.”

The best case for Myers is to play right field. Every day. I’ll concede the occasional start in center to give someone a rest (thought I don’t know that he’ll be a fit for the duties of center over long stretches). If he can play third base well enough to be thought of as someone who might spell Moustakas once every other week, okay, fine, but conduct that test in Kansas City. My fear is that it’ll be too easy for the Royals to resist wasting more time.

A night after the Royals only scored one run doesn’t help matters. Then, somehow, it worked out anyway.

Despite only scoring once for the second night in a row, the Royals pulled out a satisfying 1-0 win in ten innings, led by Luke Hochevar. On a night where two number one overall picks matched up with one another, Hochevar went pitch for pitch with Price. He looked fast. He looked commanding. If you were to know nothing of his career path to this point but knew he’d been the first player taken in 2006, you probably wouldn’t be surprised to see such a crisp outing.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Hochevar struck out ten – his highest strikeout total since June 5, 2010 – and walked just three while allowing one hit over eight innings. His ERA has fallen below 5.00 to 4.95. He’s had another rough season, but like last year, his second half has been better. I don’t think there’s ever going to be a time where Royals fans feel comfortable with him sustaining an extended stretch of dominance, but he’s shown that he can bring it out from time to time. In his previous start against Tampa, he threw his second career complete game shutout.

There was still some drama. After all, the Royals were up against Price, a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award this year, and he was fantastic. Every pitch was sharp and he struck out eight batters of his own in holding the Royals scoreless through eight innings. The Royals hit him somewhat hard early in the game but line drives went right to fielders. He only gave up three hits and walked none.

Once he left the game, the Royals were shut down by Fernando Rodney but got to Joel Peralta. Jeff Francoeur got an infield single to short and went to second on a throwing error, then a bloop single by Eric Hosmer brought him home. Kelvin Herrera threw a scoreless ninth inning prior to the Royals scoring frame, earning his first career win (though not without a bit of tension, as he and Hosmer miscommunicated on a grounder to second and Luke Scott ended up getting an infield single out of it). Greg Holland  worked a perfect tenth for the save.

The biggest downside to the night was the struggling Mike Moustakas. Granted, David Price is no easy matchup, but he toyed with Moustakas, striking him out three times. Moose got a fourth strikeout in the tenth against Peralta. He’s been off most of the second half after a strong start to the year. It hasn’t affected his defense, which is good, but there was hope he’d be past his streaky reputation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have another hot stretch to end the year, not unlike last season, but it has dampened his 2012.

Eric Hosmer, on the other hand, might be waking up a bit. Prior to yesterday’s game, he was noted to be hitting more line drives in batting practice and during the game, his swings were quieter and his front foot didn’t get away from him. He’s had bad plate discipline for much of the year, chasing the down and away pitch and teams are feeding it to him with regularity. Combining that with a longer swing has left him plateauing as he tries to progress.

Tonight, it looked a lot better, though, and he’s also been drawing walks. His average is up to .237 and his on base percentage has made it above .300 to .307 which is a step up, at least. He could still get into a groove over the last weeks of the season and, while it’s still disappointing, hopefully, he can get back into form and finish strong.

Tomorrow afternoon, Luis Mendoza takes on James Shields at noon before an off day on Thursday.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

The Royals just had a decent road trip but still came away with a loss on Sunday, so the Royalman Report tried to hearken back to better days, then tried to come up with how to bring those good days back.

We talked with our own Kevin Scobee of Kings of Kauffman about the Royals hints about converting some relievers into starters. The conversation led to talking about Luke Hochevar and what’s gone wrong, Kyle Zimmer and what’s going right and what attributes of some relievers work best if they were asked to become starters.

We also talked about Billy Butler‘s power surge in 2012 and marveled at his consistency even in the middle of a breakout. Then we set our sights on Steve Balboni‘s record – and wallowed in the fact that we’re still Royals fans, left behind while other small market teams challenge for playoff spots. Year Six…

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

This is my first post in nearly two months.  A lot of things have come up in the past two months that have taken my attention away from my articles, but now I’m back and ready to focus on my posts.  At this point in the season, not many things have gone right, however there are still a few interesting developments I’d like to see play out over the course of the next two months.

The first thing I’d like to see is Billy Butler give a nice run towards breaking Steve Balboni‘s single season record of 36 home runs.  With the juiced ball and steroid era, it was commonplace for teams to have multiple players with 30 and 40 home run seasons.  The Royals have remained quiet with the long ball and at 27 years and counting no one has surpassed Balboni’s 36 home runs in 1985.  I’m aware Butler only has 20 home runs through Sunday’s game but with a few hot streaks here and there it is possible for him to challenge the record.

The next thing I’d like to see is Greg Holland really stake a claim to the closer’s role as we head into next season.  Now I’ll admit I’ve been one of the biggest Holland advocates for the past two years.  I really like his makeup and his electric stuff, but I truly believe he could be a very dominate closer for the Royals for at least the next few years.

It’s been really nice to see Mike Moustakas carry over his hot September from last season into this year.  It’s been an even better surprise to see how well he has played defensively at third base.  On the other side of the diamond has been Eric Hosmer, who has been a little different story than Moose.  Hosmer still has time this season to get things in gear and put together a respectable season, although his time will be running out very soon.  It would certainly make me feel a bit more at ease going into the off season with Hosmer raking over the last several weeks of the season.

The last thing I’d like to see the rest of the way is the arrival of the most talked about prospect in all of baseball, Wil Myers.  Now it may be possible the Royals decide to keep Myers down until next year, but that will anger a lot, if not all, of the fan base.  I’d love to see what Wil can do the rest of the way if he gets the call.  It will, at least, add a little bit of suspense for the final two months to see if he gets promoted to Kansas City.  We will just have to wait and see what the front office decides to do, as he may end up waiting until next May to finally put on a Major League uniform.

I hope to see a few of these stories develop into realization.  These are some things that keep me watching even in the dog days of the season when the team is struggling to stay out of the basement in the AL Central.  What are some other interesting topics fans are looking forward to the rest of the season?  I’d love to hear what others are thinking about.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

July 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas (8) dives for a ground ball against the Minnesota Twins during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Moustakas told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that he didn’t think the knee was seriously injured, but he’s day-to-day at the moment.

Regardless, the Royals are going to have Moose get an MRI. If he misses a few games, that’s not too bad – the last thing the Royals need to do is push him to return too quickly in a lost season. If it takes a trip to the disabled list, so be it. Irving Falu would fit in if he needed to for two weeks. Yuniesky Betancourt filled in at third after Moose came out. If he doesn’t get traded, he’s most likely to fill in.

Hopefully it’s not serious. The Royals have been hit over and over with injuries to key players. Losing Moustakas from the lineup isn’t good for anybody and the worst case scenario is any kind of injury that would affect him long-term that could carry into next season.

Moustakas has had a great season in 2012, hitting for more power than last year and showing more consistency than his up and down 2011. His defense has been great all year as well. According to FanGraphs, he’s the best defensive third baseman in baseball, and it’s not very close, either.

In the latest episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, our guest was former Kansas City Athletic and current Royals senior pitching advisor Bill Fischer.

Fischer talked about his time with the A’s and in pitching, as well as his time as a coach and advisor. We asked him about pitching today, a few Royals prospects (Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura in particular) and his approach to the game and pitching development.

The rest of the show was spent discussing the front office, decision-making, and what it’ll take to get this team back to being a winner. Since the hope of a great season is mostly gone, we focused on the things we’re going to pay attention to for the rest of the year and those players that we enjoy seeing play even during the rough games.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Alex Gordon will look to continue his recent hot streak as the Royals visit Seattle for the only time this season. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

As mentioned the M’s were at the K just last week when they took three of four against Kansas City. Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki earlier this week to the New York Yankees, who went 7-for-20 with five runs scored, one double and triple.

Season Series …

Ichiro wasn’t the only Mariner to hurt the Royals last week left fielder Casper Wells drove in seven runs over the four game series. Jesus Montero was 8-for-17 scoring five runs plus drove in eight runs against KC. Pitching wise the M’s got solid efforts from three of their four starters which was capped by Felix Hernandez eight inning performance.

In the opener Seattle put the final nail in the Jonathan Sanchez coffin scoring five first inning runs and knocking him out after an inning and a third. Jason Vargas went six innings allowing three runs but was picked up by his ‘pen allowing one run over the final three innings. Alex Gordon had three hits with Mike Moustakas providing two in the 9-4 defeat.

Game two was similar to game one with the Royals not getting a long outing from its starter when Ryan Verdugo made his MLB debut and only went 1 2/3 innings. Verdugo allowed six runs on eight hits in his rough debut. KC fought back from a six-run deficit twice in the game but ultimately lost 9-6, Lorenzo Cain had a two-run pinch hit home run.

Kansas City fell behind 1-0 in game three but tagged Kevin Millwood for three runs in the second inning. Gordon and Cain each drove in two runs and six of the seven Royals starters drove in a run in the 8-7 win, Bruce Chen took a no-decision. Billy Butler was the hero in the game with a walkoff HR to left centerfield.

Will Smith gave KC a 6 1/3 inning start which he struck out five walking just two in what was largely a good start. Facing King Felix proved difficult even with Kansas City getting eight hits, they were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and grounded into two double plays. Montero drove in four runs in the Mariners 6-1 victory.

7/16 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 4
7/17 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 6
7/18 – Mariners 7 @ Royals 8
7/19 – Mariners 6 @ Royals 1

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Thursday, 9:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31) v. Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91)
- Mendoza picked up his first victory at home on Saturday night against the Twins going 6 1/3 well pitched innings in a 7-3 win.
- In his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against Seattle in four games which includes one start.
- Vargas has won his last three starts and has been given run support of 7 (at Oak), 9 (at KC) and 2 (at TB) runs in these starts. He hasn’t won at home since May 9, 2-1 against Detroit at Safeco Field.
Friday, 9:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 6.49)  v. Blake Beavan (5-6, 5.54)
- Guthrie made his Royals debut on Sunday at home against the Twins allowing five runs in five innings, striking out four and walking three.
- He’s faced the Mariners ten times with each appearance being a start, his record is 2-6 both wins were complete games.
- Beavan threw last week at the K picking up the win going six innings, he allowed five runs and struck out three.
Saturday, 3:10 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.54) v. Kevin Millwood (3-8, 4.13)
- Chen’s last start came in the third game of the series last week in which he got the ND throwing 5 1/3 innings. He allowed four runs on seven hits striking out six without issuing a walk.
- Last week was the first time in his career that Bruce faced the M’s.
- Millwood got rocked in during his five innings at Kansas City last week which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits. On June 8^th he was part of a combined no-hitter for the team against the Dodgers in Seattle.
Sunday, 3:10 pm – Will Smith (2-3, 6.26) v. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 2.80)
- Smith started Tuesday night in Anaheim going seven innings in the Royals 4-1 victory allowing just two-hits.
- He’ll get another shot at King Felix who he faced in the series finale last week where he worked into the seventh inning before being pulled.
- Hernandez like Smith pitched and won on Tuesday night the only game of the previous series for his team. Against the Yankees he went 7 1/3 innings allowed four hits and two runs.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s guest is Bill Fischer, a former Kansas City Athletic (1961-1963) as a pitcher. He currently serves as the Royals special pitching assistant.

We’ll also go over what we’re watching for the rest of the season as the Royals spiral towards another 90-loss year.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Will Mike Moustakas overtake Billy Butler in HR's and RBIs in the second half?. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City will get to .500 at the K

I really feel that the Royals will play better at home and my faith comes from what I was a part of during the All-Star break at the K. The city and fan base wants a winner and I think they’ll come out to support the team which will translate to the team feeling the love which will turn to wins.

Mike Moustakas leads the team in HR’s and RBIs

Get ready for more MOOOOOOOOSE! Chants in the second half of the season because I feel the Royals sophomore third baseman will continue to improve. He’s not far behind Country Breakfast in homeruns and runs batted in which I think he’ll overtake him in the second half.

Wil Myers won’t appear until August of September

Driving back from KC on Wednesday I decided to listen to both 610 (the Royals flagship) and 810 (the former rights holder) on the drive back. Flipping between both got me to thinking that Wil Myers might not be in Kansas City as soon as hoped. Dayton Moore was on 810 and he mentioned that Jake Odorizzi might be in triple-A the whole year and depending on how Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur do (or get moved) he’ll be a Storm Chaser longer.

Royals won’t make a move at the deadline

I’m gun-shy about what GMDM will do at the deadline, I’ve got fears that nothing will happen. Obviously many fans want Frenchy gone for the purpose of letting Myers play. With 2013 being now dubbed the year it seems prospects might not be moved to get pitching at this deadline which is the biggest need right now. I really want to be wrong on this prediction in the worse way. In the offseason probably will be a different story when the team will need to acquire pitching.

Kansas City finishes the season around .500

Not only will the team get to .500 at home which helps the overall record is why I make this prediction. The team might’ve finished the first half with a whimper but I feel this group will make strides like they did last year and will be a thorn in the side of those competing. I’m also of the belief that the starters will help the bullpen which also helps the W/L record. Better starting pitching will lead to a less taxing of the ‘pen which makes the entire staff better.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

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The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Sure, you could make the argument that losing games – in any sport, at any level – has to do mostly with the deficiencies of the roster and/or the flaws of management strategies, but with the Royals over the past six years (or 25 years) the same story gets written far too often during a loss. It’s just how it is.

What’s started to happen though is while there are fans that are upset with watching the same base running mistakes, the same awful plate discipline, and the same pitch-to-contact bad starting pitching, there are also those that point endlessly to the positives (of which there are many) as a reason for hope.

It’s understandable, and in some ways admirable, but when the rays of hope are continually clouded out by the storms of unoriginal bad baseball, there shouldn’t be much of a reason to fault the many that are still skeptical of progress.

This isn’t about the Royals, it’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary from all the losing.

While trying to think of a proper opening to this week’s Rant I kept finding myself coming back to that phrase as a way of justifying, – no, explaining – the feelings and tensions among most Royals fans after a loss. No fan base likes losing and when the losing turns to being just as laughable as it is predictable, there’s often nowhere else to turn with the disgust than to continually point to all the other (losing) instances that look the same, and categorizing it as such. It would be like watching a Farrelly Brothers movie: the jokes are the same, the writing is the same, and inevitably, the ending is the same.

Is there progress? Yes. Billy Butler has turned on the power this year and is finally being recognized for the truly special hitter he is, and is an All-Star. Despite Alex Gordon’s first three weeks of the season, he’s been great and continues to get on-base at a ridiculous rate (non-Joey Votto Division) and play terrific defense. Mike Moustakas has exceeded expectations and the bullpen has been spectacular. Alcides Escobar deserved an All-Star nod as well.

All of these things are points of progress and reasons that the future looks bright. Presumably. But there are still questions.

Questions about the roster construction,* questions about the rotation now and looking ahead, questions about this teams ability and lack of concern for walks on offense. To completely ignore these questions because either a) the Royals won a few games last week or b) because there are still positives out there, is irresponsible to the overall cause of the process.

*Why is Jason Bourgeois on this team?

One of my many complaints of sports media and the state of journalism in general in today’s landscape is the unwillingness of the writer or broadcaster to ever ask “why”, or challenge the status quo with the pertinent questions. Questions that, if posed correctly, are needed to hold those accountable that need to be so. Questions that if asked to the Royals would hold them accountable for a brand of baseball that still far too often looks like it did six years ago.

Teams lose games all the time. Good teams don’t lose games the same way all the time. And good franchises don’t lose games the same way all the time, for years and years in a row.

As a whole, the Royals fan base does tend to be a negative one, I think we can all admit that. I’m guilty, other writers on this site are guilty, and certainly writers on other sites are guilty. But that’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary of all the losing.

The Royals will win a few games this week. The Royals will probably win a few games next week too. But when another three-to-four game stretch like the one that was just played in Minnesota happens (and it will happen), the “negativity” will not be the fault of an overzealous, ignorant, jump-to-conclusion fan base; the fault will be of an organization that continues to lose games the same way it has for six years.

The Good

As much fun as it is to continually drive the Alex Gordon bandwagon, I can understand that it does tend to wear on the reader from time-to-time. I can.

But I also don’t think it gets talked about enough just how good a player Gordon is, or that this year’s version of the Royals would look far different, and far worse, if he were not on the team.

Gordon is currently sixth among all American Leaguers in fWAR, and according to advanced metrics (take those for what they’re worth on a two-plus-month sample) he has been the best defensive player out of any position. Holy schnikes.

Since finally breaking the .200 batting average mark on April 26, Gordon has hit .296/.388/.438 in 59 games.

Even though the power isn’t where it was a year ago, Gordon’s plate discipline and walks have far exceeded his career norm, making him almost the perfect type of leadoff batter. Plus, with the improved discipline, there’s more hope that the power will come too, putting him back into the “star” category that he was in a year ago.

The Bad

Even though one of the strengths coming into this year was supposed to be the offense (though, not by me) and it has thus far been an extreme disappointment, there’s really only one position that can be looked at as the biggest problem of them all: right field.

The struggles of Hosmer at first and the never-ending Getz/Betancourt experience at second and the noodle-bat of Jarrod Dyson in center are bad in their own way. But, all of those positions don’t have a clear answer, and at least in one of those cases the season-beginning starter at least performed well – to some degree of “well” – before being lost to injury.

The right field problem continues to be a mystery though as Wil Myers continues to be a terror in Triple-A, and the only reason (or at least presumably only reason) that he’s not currently in a major league uniform is because he doesn’t have a natural position that isn’t already being occupied by either an a) equally talented player or b) by a player that is better suited to perform defensively.

There is the Super Two argument, to be sure, but what seemed before as something that was more monetary and cost controlled in reason, seems to border more on the absurd now that Jeff Francoeur continues to see every (freaking) day playing time with little justification to do so. Especially now, that Myers seems all but perfectly ready for the next challenge, and most likely Super Two is out of the picture.

Francoeur’s re-signing with the Royals at the time was incredibly perplexing not solely for the reason that a player with a history of being average-at-best was locked up to two-years guaranteed before the outfield market established itself, but that Dayton Moore and the Royals were paying on a player’s career BABIP-induced year and not his historic norm. Hey, it happens, and at the time when Melky Cabrera turned down the same contract to stay in Kansas City, it may have seemed prudent to keep Francoeur around on a similar deal if for no other reason than to have a legitimate, everyday big-leaguer in the lineup.

But that would also call into question Francoeur’s relevance to be an every day major league player.

This season he’s been down right dreadful, and there’s no arguing that. The fact that he’s batted fifth every day without change is comedy fodder alone, but also that he’s accumulated a negative fWAR to this point shows just how unproductive he has been at what is supposed to be one of the more offensive positions on the field.

What’s even more discouraging is that even though there are numerous stories out there now about Francoeur’s impending departure via trade, the Royals seem to not really know if giving up Francoeur at this time and replacing him with Myers would be beneficial to the club.

Aside from Francoeur’s two, two-week hot streaks each year that make his numbers seem better than they really are, there doesn’t seem to be much at this point that he offers in terms of real value over a younger, cheaper, more athletic, and better hitter in Myers. But, in the #OurMissionTime2012 season, the supposed leadership (and already committed marketing campaigns) Francoeur brings to the table was thought to be a difference maker. Well, it is, just not in the way the Royals, and probably Royals fans, had hoped.

This thought isn’t meant to be reactionary, though in some ways, it probably is. Even though the Royals peaked last week at just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, the roster overall most likely isn’t good enough to compete or finish for the division crown. So dealing with Francoeur’s deficiencies with range, plate discipline, contact abilities, base running abilities, and consistency, may be buying an extra year of non-arbitration for Myers. May be.

But at some point it has to be about winning and winning now. Free passes are given far too often to players that are underperforming for the Royals organization, and this would appear to be another one of those occasions. Though, you could make the argument that the decision to continue to play Francoeur (though the decision to continue to bat him fifth is indefensible) is about winning – just winning three years from now while Myers has still yet to hit arbitration.

No matter the reason, a right fielder batting .256/.293/.387 (not all the far off from his career numbers, mind you) is killing the lineup.

The Upcoming

The Royals sure do know how to ruin a good thing. Just when it appeared the organization was back on track, there’s a hurdle thrown out in front of them and the players collectively fell over themselves. And it doesn’t get any easier.

After a favorable June schedule that resulted in another winning month for the club (14-12), July starts out with a punch to the stomach with four on the road in Toronto, and three on the road in Detroit before the All-Star break.

Any time Jonathan Sanchez has taken the mound this year it has been a guaranteed frustrating outing, and today was no different.

Sanchez walked six batters in just 4 1/3 innings of work while allowing 10 hits and 6 runs today, all earned. In a month that set up prime for the Royals to make a run at the AL Central lead, Sanchez has thrown 21 innings and given up 27 hits, 18 walks, 16 earned runs, and struck out just 14. Ouch.

A stretch of stats that’s normally reserved for the Mac Suzuki’s or, gulp, Luke Hochevar’s* of the world, Sanchez’s lack of production and perceived lack of desire or care has turned him into public enemy No. 1. With good reason. Each passing day that Melky Cabrera continues to perform above expectations, the once-justifiable trade turns more and more into a disappointing laugher. A laugher, in which the only real “win” for the Royals at this point, would appear to be a release of the left-hander.

*I know, he’s pitched better of late. His career numbers are still pretty ugly.

But that can’t quite happen, really.

One glaring weakness of the Royals roster is the starting rotation, and while a replacement in Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock, Vin Mazzaro, or others, might seem to be a viable alternative to the struggling Sanchez at this point, all of those arms will be needed to help out a struggling bullpen that’s being asked to take on a load that no other bullpen in baseball is being asked to do. For the time being, the best option for the Royals may be to wait and hope that Sanchez can turn things around.

Of course, that sentence changes, if they announce a move of Sanchez sometime soon.

Tomorrow the Royals send Bruce Chen to the mound in hopes of splitting the series against the Twins. The bright side after the doubleheader loss is that the Royals have still guaranteed themselves a winning month of at least no worse that 14-12. Rad flags still surround this team, like being outscored this month despite a favorable win-loss record, but back-to-back winning months is something to be proud of.

Also tomorrow the All Star Game rosters will be announced. Alcides Escobar, Billy Butler, and Mike Moustakas all have the numbers to justify their selection at their positions, so it’ll be fun to see if more than the requisite bullpen arm, charity selection, is taken from the Royals.

 Alcides Escobar – Shortstop

Alcides Escobar is a coin flip to represent the Royals in the All-Star Game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

 The Case For: Don’t look now, but Alcides Escobar is currently hitting .316 and sporting a .355 on-base percentage. Those numbers place him first and third among American League shortstops, respectively. He ranks third with his .779 OPS, second with 19 doubles, and third with 12 stolen bases. He batted .349 in June with a .477 slugging percentage. In short, he’s been raking.

 And all this comes from a guy who was brought to the Royals in the Zack Greinke trade as a defensive specialist with a lot to learn on offense. Well, Escobar has learned all right. His confidence at the plate is palpable, and this incarnation of Escobar in no way resembles the timid, distrusting batter we saw at the beginning of the 2011 season.

 And Escobar never stopped being an elite defender. He possesses excellent range, and despite a somewhat pedestrian fielding percentage, he currently ranks second among AL shortstops with 128 putouts and is tied for third with 53 double plays. He also has been regularly featured on Sportscenter’s Top Plays, which is about as impactful for his chances of making the All-Star team as every statistic I’ve cited in the previous two paragraphs combined.

 The Case Against: I don’t feel entirely comfortable nit-picking Escobar since he has been so fantastic this year. The only quibble I can summon is that Escobar lacks power, having hit only two home runs on the season.

 Also, since the less productive Derek Jeter is a lock to make the team, Escobar could get squeezed behind a power bat like Asdrubal Cabrera or, gulp, a nepotistic selection such as Ron Washington’s own Elvis Andrus.

 The bottom line is that Escobar deserves the honor. He can only hope that politics don’t interfere with the correct decision.

 Odds of Making Team: 51%. If you’ll notice, the combined percentage odds I’ve divvied out to these three players total out to 126%. That figure reflects my 26% certainty that the Royals will get a second All-Star selection for the first time since Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal were honored in 2003.

 My Pick: He’s tentatively in, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get shafted by Ron Washington.

Mike Moustakas – Third Baseman

2012 isn't likely the year for Mike Moustakas to represent the Royals at the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Moustakas ranks 3^rd among American League third basemen with an .803 OPS, 3^rd in homers with 13, and 4^th in doubles with his 17. He has also displayed surprisingly world class defense at third base. Moustakas leads all AL third basemen with 23 double plays started, which is seven more than pursuers Brett Lawrie and Miguel Cabrera. He also ranks second in assists and second in fielding percentage. By almost any metric, he has been an elite defender this season.

On top of his league rankings, Moustakas has arguably been the best all-round Royal this season. He currently sits second on the team in home runs, RBI, and OPS, and is third on the team with 17 doubles.

Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera seem like locks at this point. But Moustakas has a legitimate case to make this team as the back-up to the back-up third baseman.

The Case Against: Moustakas’ mid-.260’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page. Furthermore, as good as his defense has been, ultimately the reality is that the All-Star game is more about offense than defense. The guys with impressive counting numbers are more likely to get the nod. And offensively, it would be difficult to argue that Moustakas deserves to make the team over teammate Billy Butler.

He is young and still improving, and will no doubt get his opportunity to play on the big stage in his blossoming career. But for guys who are neck and neck in quality like Butler and Moustakas, the player with the longer track record of success should get the nod.  Butler simply deserves to be recognized as the best player on the Royals. Moustakas’ best chance would be if the Royals garner two roster spots.

Odds of Making Team: 10%

My Pick: Moustakas will make plenty of All-Star teams, but it’s not going to happen in 2012.

Billy Butler – Designated Hitter

Billy Butler might be swinging for the fences in the home run derby next week. Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Butler leads the Royals in home runs, runs batted in, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Oh, and he’s currently second on the team in batting average. He’s been the most consistent Royal for several years now, and is coming into his own as bona fide superstar. We’re roughly halfway through the season, and Butler is on pace to shatter his career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

As much as I hate to jinx Butler’s power surge through the season’s first half, I nonetheless feel compelled to mention that Billy (16 HR’s through 76 games) has made himself into a legitimate threat to surpass Steve Balboni’s infamously embarrassing club home run record of 38.

Plus, Butler owns the third best OPS among qualifying designated hitters, trailing only Boston’s David Ortiz and Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion. Chicago’s Adam Dunn is running neck and neck with Butler, but he has several teammates (Paul Konerko, Chris Sale, Alex Rios come to mind) at least as deserving of a spot. Because every team needs to represented, the quota on White Sox all-star candidates probably doesn’t run four-deep.

The way I see it, the All-Star game is the perfect opportunity to carry three designated hitters, since most of the non-starters at the game won’t figure to get more than one at-bat anyway.

Bonus: Butler would become a natural candidate for the home run derby if he was named to the squad. If Saturday’s bomb against the Twins is any indication, he could put on quite a show.

The Case Against: Butler must get tired of hearing this, but no conversation regarding his talents is complete until the obligatory mention that he doesn’t play defense. When he’s competing for a roster spot with defensive stalwarts Moustakas and Escobar, that fact simply has to be taken into account.

Odds of Making Team: 65%

My Pick: He’s in.

The Royals were five games under and a few good breaks and a big streak away from maybe, perhaps, possibly being in contention for a playoff spot or the division crown. Discussion online in forums and on Twitter turned to what pitchers might be available to make a run today. Salvador Perez was set to return to the lineup, finally uniting the team’s pitching staff with its franchise catcher after surgery stole half the year from him.

But as Royals fans, we just can’t have nice things. Maybe there’s some kind of curse where we sold our souls for a break in the form of a Don Denkinger miscall in 1985 and now must suffer with losing seasons and an embarrassing team home run record.

The weekend was hot. The Cardinals left the series even hotter after no pitcher was safe from their bats. Roman Colon was a standout performer in his long relief outing after Vin Mazzaro left on Friday. He’s now back in Triple A after clearing waivers.

Some bats warmed up. Jeff Francoeur hit his second extra base hit of the month – a homer to left – and Mike Moustakas homered twice (and he kind of homered three times as his first homer came after a blast that just went foul).

It just wasn’t enough. Their eight runs on Sunday would have been good enough to tie the Cardinals low mark during the series and after seeing 30 runs go up in three games, fans were ready to storm the castle with familiar calls pleading for David Glass to sell the team and for Dayton Moore to leave town.

It’s that quick. Fans are hungry for a winner, yet won’t go out to the stadium to watch their team while they’re starting to win so the opposing team’s fans get what amounts to three more home games. Add in the heat in the area and people get grouchy. It’s a situation that tests patience. Year after year, we hope and year after year we wait. I get the frustration because I feel it myself. It makes it difficult to keep a level head and prevent myself from calling to blow it all up and start over. Small things get embellished (like one bad inning being a judgment of Aaron Crow‘s ability to be a star reliever) and circumstances get overlooked (like the Royals being anywhere in the discussion despite having absolutely terrible starting pitching – and also fighting injuries).

I try not to be an apologist too often. I think there is a spot where you can be critical of your team, but the line is very thin until you’ve crossed over into outright negativity. It’s fine to be the boy in the crowd saying that the Emperor is wearing no clothes; it’s another thing to bludgeon the Emperor to death just to show you can.

So it’s been a bit of a weekend and there wasn’t much in the way of positive moments to talk about aside from Moose, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.

It’s just funny to see so many fans ready to jump on and sell the farm to get some pieces and three days later be ready to give it all up and say it’s the “same old Royals”. I get it if you’re talking about a tough loss in a football season where there are only so many games and a bad loss or two can sink your season but in baseball, the schedule is laid out over so many games that these swings still surprise me. I wonder what the reactions will be after small moments that don’t go right during a pennant race and not when the team is fighting to just to get out of fourth place.

I guess it’s part of what comes with an engaged and passionate fan base, and to be a Royals fan, after all these years, you’d have to be dedicated in that way. There aren’t a lot of bandwagon Royals fans.

There will be other good stretches for the Royals and other bad stretches. The low point, of course, was the 12 game losing streak, but this Cardinals series was just as miserable, if not more, as the Indians series to open the home schedule because of the Cardinal contingent in the city.

When the stakes are high, the good is very good, the bad is very bad. Maybe as the wins start to increase and we expect to see wins and thus each victory isn’t a dire necessity, lest a collapse follow.

I don’t know the answer to these questions and there may not be any to be found, either. It’s the nature of fandom. It’s why we follow along.

Vin Mazzaro gets the start in the opener against the Cardinals as the I-70 Series shifts to Kauffman Stadium this weekend. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Records: St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) @ Kansas City Royals (31-36)

Season Series: Royals 2-1 (won series in St. Louis June 15-17)
June 15 – Kansas City 3-2               WP: V. Mazzaro                LP: K. Lohse        S: J. Broxton
June 16 – St. Louis 10-7                   WP: M. Boggs                    LP: T. Collins       S: J. Motte
June 17 – Kansas City 5-3 F/15     WP: J. Broxton                 LP: E. Sanchez

Recap of last weekend: In game one the Royals took a 3-0 lead on the Cardinals before St. Louis scored twice in the seventh innings. Jonathan Broxton had an adventurous ninth before Mike Moustakas threw out Tyler Green at home to end the game. On Saturday the Cardinals won 10-7, the home team roughed up Bruce Chen taking a 6-1 lead after two innings. KC stormed by scoring the next six-runs taking a 7-6 lead in the seventh before the Redbirds countered with three in the bottom of the inning. The finale on Father’s Day went 15-innings with the Royals winning 5-3 when Yuniesky Betancourt hit a two-run homer in the top of the fifteenth inning.

Since they last they met: KC went to Houston and took 2-of-3 against the Astros after losing the first game of the series. St. Louis traveled to Detroit in a rematch of the 2006 World Series but lost the series to the Tigers two games to one, winning the middle game.

Central Standings:
AL Central                                                           NL Central
Cleveland Indiana (36-32)                             Cincinnati Reds (38-30)
Chicago White Sox (36-33)           0.5          Pittsburgh Pirates (36-32)             2.0
Detroit Tigers (34-35)                     2.5          St. Louis Cardinals (35-35)             4.0
Kansas City Royals (31-26)            4.5          Milwaukee Brewers (32-37)        6.5
Minnesota Twins (27-41)              9.0          Houston Astros (28-41)                 10.5
Chicago Cubs (24-45)                      14.5

Sal is back!: Tonight Salvador Perez will make his 2012 season debut for the Kansas City Royals. In addition ex-Royal Carlos Beltran is back at the K for the first time but wearing red and white. Beltran in his career is a .299, with 60 homeruns, 268 RBIs and 95 stolen bases at the Kauffman Stadium.

Turning it around at home: Kansas City is 11-20 at home this season but did sweep the Brewers in their quick three-game home stand last week. Since starting 0-10, the Royals have played better winning six of their last nine at home.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Joe Kelly (0-0, 2.89) v. Vin Mazzaro (3-1, 2.57)
Saturday, 1:10 pm – Adam Wainwright (5-7, 4.46) v. Luis Mendoza (2-3, 4.69)
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.80) v. Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.70)

Let me give you an example.  I was recently looking at the Royals team history page and discovered something interesting.  If you review the column of “Top Players” you’ll see a number of recognizable names of athletes that contributed mightily to the success (or relative success) of each specific season.  You’ll find Alex Gordon, Amos Otis, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Beltran, David Cone, Johnny Damon, Kevin Appier, Zack Greinke, John Mayberry, Dan Quisenberry, Willie Wilson, Joakim Soria, etc. and of course George Brett – a veritable who’s who of Royal’s history.  You’ll also see Jose Offerman, Mark Teahen and a couple other mild surprises.

This made me think…  What is, or what should be, the definition of the Top or Best player?  Baseball Reference defines the Top Player as the individual with the highest WAR (Wins Against Replacement) rating of any player on the team.  WAR is a tangible analysis that takes both offense and defense into account, but it doesn’t make any attempt to measure leadership or intangibles, and it seems to favor pitchers slightly in my opinion.

5 time All Star Mike Sweeney was never the best player on the Royals according to Baseball Reference (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Let me give you an example of the lack of leadership skills and intangibles in the WAR calculation.  Remember Mike Sweeney?  There is a lot of mixed opinion about Mike, and deservedly so, yet he put up some dynamite offensive numbers for a few years combined with the ability to hold his own at first base, and he was the undeniable leader of the Royals during his time as Captain.  Yet this 5 time All Star who hit .333 with 144 RBIs, 71 walks, and a league leading 15 HBPs in 2000, and a 2002 season that saw him hit .340, .563 slugging, and 148 OPS+ was never the “Top Player” for the Royals according to Baseball Reference and his WAR rating.  In 2002, that honor went to Paul Byrd.

What do you think of that?  Was Paul Byrd a more important piece of the puzzle for the Royals in 2002 than Mike Sweeney and his .340 batting average? (.340 is 2^nd only to George Brett’s .390 in 1980, and how would you like to have a .340 hitter on the Royals right now?)  In 2002, Paul Byrd was 17-11 with a 3.90 ERA and he led the league with 7 complete games – he was definitely a very valuable pitcher, but I don’t think his performance could be defined as “dominating.”  Paul Byrd appeared in 33 games.  Mike Sweeney played in 126 (less than a full season due to the beginning signs of his many recurring back issues), had the first straight steal of home by a Royal in over 20 years, was named to his 3^rd consecutive All-Star game, led the league in defensive assists by a 1^st baseman – and he was the Captain of the team.  But this wasn’t good enough to be the Royals “Top Player.”

Obviously, my definition of the best player on the team is going to differ from other fans, and from other experts as well.  My subjective definition simply asks, “Who was the player the Royals could least afford to do without?”  In 2002, I believe the answer has to be Mike Sweeney.

Before the 2012 season began, who did you think the Royals’ best player would be this season?  If you’re like most of the rest of us, you may have thought, or at least hoped, it would be Eric Hosmer.  If so, those hopes were dashed weeks ago as we’ve witnessed one of the most dramatic sophomore slumps in recent memory.  A few of you may have predicted Alex Gordon, or maybe Joakim Soria prior to his injury.  Predictions are based on hopes, and as a Royals fan you certainly know that hopes are often dashed.

If you said Billy Butler, you were pretty much on target.  (Although according to WAR rating, Alex Gordon is on top for the second year in a row – I don’t agree in 2012.)  However, I am hesitant to name a DH as the best player citing the same reservations many have for naming a pitcher as MVP.  And unless a Royals pitcher is completely and utterly dominating (see Steve Busby, Dennis Leonard, David Cone, Zach Greinke, or Bret Saberhagen) I have similar misgivings.

For 2013 we have several potential candidates for best player.  I’ll list my nominations below and include the odds that I think I’m right.  And, I’ll also acknowledge that there’s no possible way any reader will agree with me 100%.

Could Mike Moustakas become the best player on the Royals? (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Mike Moustakas:  The improvement Mike has shown from 2011 to 2012 has been nothing short of breathtaking.  He is much more comfortable at the plate this year, and in the field he doesn’t even look like the same player.  I believe Mike’s personality has many leadership qualities and he’s maturing into a presence that will almost certainly make him the best player on the team at some point in his career.  For 2013, I’d say the odds of Mike being the Royals best player, the guy they can least afford to do without, are about 3 to 1.

Eric Hosmer:  Although he hasn’t come close to fulfilling our expectations this year, Hosmer’s potential is so tantalizing that I have to put him near the top of the list.  I believe Eric is just a tweak or two away from “righting the ship” and getting back on track to becoming the offensive powerhouse we all know he can be.  His defense is still solid, but it may take a while for his personality to mature into a true clubhouse big dog.  I’ll put Hosmer’s odds of being the best player in 2013 at 5 to 1.

Alcides Escobar:  If you told me I could only watch one play from each Royals game, I would pick the inevitable web gem that Esky turns in virtually every night.  It is truly a thrill to watch Alcides display his otherworldly defensive skills while protecting the left side of the diamond.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that after watching him for less than two seasons he may not be the absolute best defensive shortstop I’ve ever seen, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone better than him.  Escober is hitting around .290 at a premium position and I believe the only thing that could potentially limit his ability to be a great club house leader are his English language skills.  Alcides is my dark horse candidate for best player in 2013 and he’s my favorite to watch play in 2012.  I’ll put his odds at 10-1.

Jeff Francoeur:  I believe Jeff is the closest thing the 2012 Royals have to a clubhouse leader and his rocket arm and intangibles are great.  Who’s the guy you see chest bumping his team mates every night and cheering them on with one of the most upbeat personalities in the majors?  It’s Frenchy.  Who else tosses baseballs wrapped in $100 bills and gets into hilarious mock disputes with opposing mascots?  Frenchy’s power numbers are way down this year and his average has dipped, so his on-field performance is not trending in the right direction which makes him a risky wager.  I also wouldn’t bet on Jeff being “da man” in 2013 due to the fact that he may not even play in a Royals uniform.   If he is still wearing Royals blue in 2013, I would put Francoeur’s odds at 15-1.

Wil Myers:  At some point in 2012, no matter how hard the Royals brass try to hold him back, he’ll force his way to Kansas City.  And he may light it up offensively when he arrives, but his defense still needs work and there’s almost no way anyone can be a true clubhouse leader in his first or second year.  Odds 30-1.

Billy Butler:  Great DH, one of the best in baseball.  But as I explained earlier, I just don’t think a DH can be the best player.  If a DH is your best player, then your team is in trouble.  Odds 30-1.

Jake Odorizzi:  See “Wil Myers.”  Odds 50-1.

Alex Gordon:  Gold Glove defensive left fielder who has been a disappointment at the plate this year.  He’s a solid contributor and I want him on my team, but he’s not a vocal clubhouse leader and has little chance to be the best player on the team in my rating system.  In 2013, I’d rate him at 50-1.

There are a few other players who have a shot at being the best player, but all of them have significant question marks either because they may not recover from injuries (Joakim Soria and Danny Duffy), they haven’t played in the majors long enough for us to get a good sense of their performance (Salvador Perez), or because Dayton Moore hasn’t traded for them yet or signed them as a free agent (Zach Greinke – hint, hint…)

And don’t get me started about relief pitchers.  Unless you are Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry, or Joakim Soria in his prime, you can’t even be considered the Top Player on the team.  It would be the same as voting the field goal kicker as the top player on an NFL team – it’s not going to happen.

Could Yuniesky Betancourt be the best player? Haha, just kidding! Almost got you, didn't we? (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Yuniesky Betancourt:  I’ll just skip straight to the odds.  10,000,000,000 to 1.  I had to throw him in just for kicks.

The biggest reason we have difficulty selecting the potential top player is because the Royals are so young.  Most of the time I believe that’s a good thing and not a bad thing, but it causes them to be inconsistent as they go through the struggles of figuring out how to succeed in the big leagues, and most of them simply have not matured into the true leaders that they will hopefully one day become.

I still believe that we are two solid starting pitchers away from being a contending team and I’m holding on to hope that we find these hurlers somewhere, either in the farm system, through trades or free agency, before the start of the 2013 season.  When this happens, we’ll find our team playing in October, and this is the time when true clubhouse leadership emerges and performance on the field has a historical impact on your team and your legacy.   When we play in October, that’s when we’ll definitely learn who is the best player on this team.

Who should be the scapegoat for another year of disappointing Royals baseball?  Whose head needs to roll as a result of the team’s poor showing?  Dayton Moore? Kevin Seitzer?  How about Rex Hudler?

Should Ned Yost be the scapegoat for what has been a disappointing season so far? (Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the interesting aspects of social media is that it provides a real time peek into the thoughts of hard core sports fans.  Every evening you can sit down at your computer and watch the commentary during the game.  One of the most frequent themes on Twitter has been that Ned Yost is to blame for this disappointing season and that he should be taken to the nearest bus terminal with a ticket to Anywherebuthere Town, USA.  But I say – not so fast.

Before I explain my thoughts, let’s take a peek into the world of social media and look at just a few of the many thousands of comments concerning Ned Yost:

• Aaron Stilley @Royal_Heritage – You may say Yost is a by-the-book manager, but today I saw him pioneer the use of a late inning defensive downgrade while leading!
• Scott Thomas @hosmermania – Ned Yost=Hank Hill. Old fashioned grumpy guy who hunts. Never does anything new. Very predictable.
• Mike Engel ‏@michaelengel – How many people in uniform were surprised by the bunt? One? The left field ball boy? #Yosted
• Josh Green ‏@Jashg84 - As long as Yost is in there, it will continue like this unfortunately
• 1Yankh8r ‏@1Yankh8r – Can’t wait to see how the Spin Doctors in the Yost camp sell last night’s debacle. #FireYost

#FireYost has become a popular hashtag.  So is #Yosted.  And fans are right to be upset.   Some of Yost’s decisions this season on the surface appear to be nearly inexplicable.  But let’s take a closer look.

I think the best way to judge a manager is to evaluate what he is doing with the talent he has been given.  For instance (I realize this is a very unrealistic example, but I’m trying to make a point), what if one participant in the Indy 500 was forced to ride a bicycle – how well do you think this person would do and where do you think he or she would finish?  You would expect him to finish last because the race wasn’t fair, he wasn’t given the same sleek expensive race car to drive as all the other competitors.  You know what I’m getting at, don’t you?

The Royals payroll is about $61 million.  That’s about $2.5 million per victory so far this year.  Wins are going for about $5 million each in Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) this year, and almost $6 million in Boston.  By comparison, if higher payroll means greater talent, then Ned Yost isn’t playing all that badly with the hand he’s been dealt.  The Rays do an awesome job at less than $2 million per victory.

Are the Royals going to bunt again?!? (Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE)

Still, how do you explain all the crazy managerial decisions Yost has made?  There have been times I’ve wanted to tear out what little hair I have left every time I watch Yuniesky Betancourt trot out to 2^nd base or yet another failed and ill-advised bunt attempt go awry.

The Royals have been caught stealing more than any other team in the American League except one.  This is pretty remarkable considering 10 teams (in the American League alone) have stolen more bases than the Royals.  Just imagine how bad this statistic would be if Jarrod Dyson hadn’t been playing recently.  Aren’t the Royals young and athletic?  Don’t most of them have average speed or better, with the possible exceptions of Billy Butler and Humberto (why did we trade for him again?) Quintero?  Are the coaches sending the green light at the wrong time?  Are the players using poor technique?

How many times this year have you seen a Royal caught napping and picked off the bases?  Many more times than I care to recall.  Is poor coaching to blame?

There are a couple schools of thought regarding a stable lineup.  Some people say it’s beneficial to a player to always know his role and where he’ll bat when he comes to the stadium.  Yost obviously didn’t attend this school.  Yost believes in juggling the lineup as if it were a bowling ball, a power saw, a flaming torch, and a butcher knife.  Unfortunately, when you play with fire, somebody is going to get burned.

I wish I knew why many of the Royals are slumping at the plate this year.  Is this Ned Yost’s fault?  Last year, Kevin Seitzer was considered to be a hitting guru on the level of Charlie Lau.  This year, Hosmer was unable to hit his way out of a paper bag for six weeks, Alex Gordon is on track for 12 home runs compared to 23 last year, and the team is trending toward scoring about 100 fewer runs than last season.  Is this Kevin Seitzer’s fault?  Is he not providing the same quality guidance and instruction as last year?

So how good are these Royals and how much talent does Ned Yost have to work with?  There’s really no way to know.  With acknowledgement that some may disagree with me, the 2012 Royals may have one of the major’s best defensive shortstops in Alcides Escobar, one of the best defensive catchers (when Salvador Perez returns – please hurry), the best defensive left fielder in Alex Gordon, the strongest outfield arm in Jeff Francoeur, possibly the major’s most improved player in 3^rd baseman Mike Moustakas, the player with the greatest potential in Eric Hosmer, the speediest bench player in Jarrod Dyson, one of the top hitters in a position loaded with talent, DH Billy Butler, the hardest throwing relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera, and a very capable bullpen. But without decent starting pitchers, there is simply no possible way to know how good this team is.

The pitching anchor of the 2012 Royals is Bruce Chen.  Just let that soak in for a moment.  On opening day this season, we sent Bruce Chen to the mound in Anaheim to face Jered Weaver.  Weaver was an All-Star and 2^nd in the Cy Young balloting last year.  Chen’s heater is about 84 mph.   The Royals brought a knife to a gunfight that day and they were shutout 5-0 in a swift 2 hours and 22 minutes, the 2^nd shortest game of the season – it was merciful and quick.  This isn’t the way you want to start a season and it set the tone for what was to come.

Bruce Chen is the Royals #1 pitcher. No really, I'm not kidding. (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I don’t blame Bruce Chen.  Bruce is a very likeable guy who gives it everything he has every time he walks to the mound.  But he shouldn’t be in a position where a team looks to him as the stopper.  Chen earns $4.5 million per year.  Weaver earns $14 million.  It’s like sending your funny cousin Joey into the ring to face Mohammed Ali in his prime every five days.  Who would do that?   Why are the Royals doing it?  It’s insane!  How can we blame Ned Yost for this injustice?

I believe it all boils down to pitching.  Pitching is the lifeblood of a baseball team.  Wins and losses begin with the guy who takes the mound in the 1^st inning.  Pitching holds the other team down, keeps your side in the game, and provides your teammates with a chance to win.  A baseball team simply cannot be successful without strong starting pitching.

When you watch a team play that has poor starting pitching (aka The Royals), anything else you see on the field is an attempt to make up for this shortcoming.  Everyone else must extend themselves and try to do things they aren’t capable of doing.  They must try to steal when the timing isn’t right.  They constantly bunt in a desperate attempt to move runners into scoring position.  They try to hit 6-run homers when nobody is on base.  The manager flip flops the lineup trying to find a winning combination that will overcome the lack of talent on the mound.  He’ll move the potential All-Star 1^st baseman into right field trying to squeeze one more drop of offense out of a team that must overcome a mishmash hodge podge rotation cobbled together from castoffs, 2^nd level trades, and Independent Leagues while waiting for the top prospect hurlers in the minors to one day, some day, fulfill their potential.

So, who’s fault is it that the Royals don’t have a major league caliber starting pitching rotation?  In my opinion, it isn’t Ned Yost’s fault.  He can only manage with the team he’s been given.  He doesn’t draft, he doesn’t make trades, it’s not his main responsibility to evaluate talent and bring prospects up from the minors.  It’s his job to coach the team on the field.  No doubt he overcompensates and ends up doing things that look stupid in retrospect, but many of these decision are made in desperation while attempting to surmount the overwhelming pitching handicap the Royals have been saddled with.  All things considered, it simply isn’t possible or fair to call Ned Yost the worst manager in the major leagues, and we won’t be able to make this assessment accurately until and unless the Royals Front Office provide him with a competitive rotation.

You may say the Royals can’t afford to compete in the free agent wars and their small market revenue stream places them in an unwinnable position.  Well, no doubt it makes things more difficult, but I don’t see anyone in Tampa making excuses for their low payroll, and they are winning.  And by the way, they’re winning with an abundance of talented young pitching.  Just sayin’.

The team experienced a slump that extended over half the season and they lost more than 75% of their games during this stretch.  For all their talent, it seemed that one major piece was missing for most of the year.  By the end of a long and frustrating season, the team was finally coming together and it was only due to injuries to a key player that they didn’t finish on a winning streak.

Pitcher Luke Hochevar and catcher Humberto Quintero - representing two positions where a potential missing piece could emerge. (Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

Could the description above fit the 2012 Kansas City Royals?  It’s close.  Over the past few years the Royals have experienced a changing of the guard at all levels from the field to the front office.  They’ve transitioned from a team that plugged holes with washed up veterans with nowhere else to play, to a team of young upstarts low on experience but high on potential.  The young players have shown flashes of their talent and gave us a glimpse of what they could accomplish in 2011, but have been mired in several slumps caused by injuries and growing pains, and a lack of a strong starting pitching rotation in 2012.  The first paragraph might be referring to the 2012 Kansas City Royals, but it’s a more accurate description of the 1990 Dallas Cowboys.

In 1990, the Dallas Cowboys introduced the sports world to a trio of extremely talented players who became commonly referred to as “The Triplets.”  Michael Irvin, a wide receiver, was drafted in the first round of 1988.  Troy Aikman, quarterback (you remember him – the guy who hawks buffalo wings for a living now), was drafted in the first round of 1989.  Both players started the season and were featured throughout by the Dallas Cowboys.  But it wasn’t until 1990 first round draft pick Emmitt Smith, running back (and the NFL’s future all-time leading rusher), took the field in October following a long holdout with a 121 yard rushing performance that the team finally began to fulfill its promise.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer - two of the "found" pieces. (Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

In my opinion, the Dallas Cowboys of 1990 make a good comparison to the 2012 Kansas City Royals.  Both teams changed coaches, executives and philosophies from previous seasons.  Both teams had introduced a few of it’s young studs the previous year.  The Cowboys had Irvin and Aikman, the Royals have Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas (I’d like to put Salvador Perez in this group too, but I’ll hold off until I see his performance when he returns from his knee injury.)  Both teams slumped out of the gate – the Cowboys lost 75% of their games between September 16 and November 11.  The Royals notoriously lost 12 in a row in April.

Then came Emmitt Smith, the missing piece of the puzzle for the Cowboys.  By November 18, 1990, Emmitt had firmly established himself and the Cowboys rattled off four consecutive wins and were within one victory in their final two games (or a single loss by the Saints) of making the playoffs.  Then Troy Aikman separated his shoulder and everything went down the toilet – at least for 1990.  But good things, actually VERY good things were to come for the Cowboys over the next few seasons.

It’s difficult to say exactly what the missing piece might be for the Royals.  The easiest answer is that the Royals are missing a couple of quality starting pitchers.  But what if having Salvador Perez behind the plate to call different pitches on the night of April 11 in Oakland would have prevented Jonathan Broxton’s nightmare-inducing 12^th inning meltdown (that still haunts my dreams to this day) and could have changed the course of this season?  What if this painful loss hadn’t kick-started an avalanche of bad luck and lost confidence that took a month to overcome?  What if Salvador Perez is the missing piece?

I had a chance to watch Lorenzo Cain play in Surprise this Spring before he was injured and he was quite impressive.  I think he could have made an impact for us if he had been on the field this year, and if you think Jarrod Dyson is the answer in Center, you’re kidding yourself.  Maybe Cain is the missing piece, but probably not.

Could Wil Myers be the missing piece? (Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

And what about the looming presence of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi in Omaha?  Could they make an appearance this year, establish themselves, and then help take the Royals to the playoff promised land next year and beyond?  What if Mike Montgomery figures it out?  (I have my doubts.  Serious doubts.)  What if the Royals packaged Cheslor Cuthbert and Yordano Ventura in a trade and picked up a #1 pitcher?  (I don’t want to trade these guys, I’m just speculating on what could happen.)  You never know what might transpire to supply the final piece of the puzzle and ultimately push the Royals over the top.

In 1989, the Cowboys record was 1-15.  The next year, when all three Triplets appeared on the field at the same time they were 7-9 and probably only missed the playoffs due to an injury to Aikman.  In 1991 they were 11-5 and reached the playoffs.   In 1992 they were 13-3 and began their Super Bowl run with victories in 1992, 1993, and 1995.

Is it really that much of a stretch to see the Royals add a missing piece or two and playing competitive baseball in the second half of this year?  Am I dreaming to think the Royals can make the playoffs in 2013?  Would you commit me to a mental hospital if I said the Royals could be World Series bound in 2014?

Yogi Berra, "It's deja vu all over again."

Picture yourself in 1990, reading a Cowboy’s website (if there had been such a thing) and ask yourself the same questions.  Would it have been realistic to expect a 1-15 team to be competitive the next season, to reach the playoffs the following year, and to begin an unprecedented Super Bowl run after that?  You probably would have called the writer crazy and delusional.  In hindsight we know this was the beginning of one of the greatest football dynasties ever.  (It’s difficult for me to type these words considering my all consuming hatred of the Cowboys.)  But few, if any, could have realized this in 1990.

I don’t know exactly what the future holds for the Royals, but I believe they may be just a couple of missing pieces away from becoming the team we’ve all dreamed about.  The Cowboys proved it can be done, it’s not just a pipe dream, and I know it can happen again.  I believe it’s possible because as I learned in school – history has a way of repeating itself.  And as Yogi Berra once famously said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

Mike Moustakas homered and doubled twice. Eric Hosmer drove a ball deep the other way for a sacrifice fly, then doubled sharply into the gap later in the game. Jose Mijares struck out three in 1.1 innings. The Royals scored seven runs.

The bad news is that the Twins scored ten. Will Smith gave up three more homers. The Twins scored ten times.

The 10-7 loss is tough to swallow because the Royals had opportunities to score more.

Down 4-1 in the fourth, Johnny Giavotella led off against Cole De Vries, a 27-year-old rookie with a 4.01 ERA as a minor leaguer. Billy Butler ripped a hard single to left. Mike Moustakas hit his first double to drive in Giavotella and put runners on second and third with no outs.

Then the Twins tried to help the Royals out. Jeff Francoeur ripped a liner to short but Brian Dozier didn’t catch it and it slipped into left field. Eric Hosmer hit a chopper to Alexi Casilla, who slipped trying to make the play and everyone was safe. Three runs had scored, runners were on first and second and De Vries hadn’t been fooling anyone with the Royals getting a second look at him. Alcides Escobar, who’s actually been hitting all year and is third on the team in hits, came up and Ned Yost called a sacrifice bunt.

If I can borrow a line from Dennis Hopper – pop quiz hotshot, you have a batter hitting .300 and showing signs of being capable of putting the ball in play. The starting pitcher is on the ropes. His defense is falling apart behind him. Your next two batters are Jarrod Dyson and Humberto Quintero, your eighth and ninth batters. What do you do?

I’m not a fan of the bunt in general anyway, but in this case, to set up your last two batters – one with four extra base hits in 138 plate appearances to start the night and who’s struck out as many times as Eric Hosmer but in 2/3 the appearances (Dyson) and your catcher who was coming off of a May when he hit for a .578 OPS during the month (Quintero) – and with a pitcher about to fall apart, it shut down any momentum in the inning. Yost handed them a free out in the name of baseball convention.

Dyson and Quintero struck out looking to end the inning.

And no, I wouldn’t have felt any better about the bunt had either batter gotten a hit. You’ll have to take my word on that. It was another in a long line of free outs the Royals have given their opposition. Had the bunt been to set up Alex Gordon or Moustakas or Butler or Hosmer, perhaps I’d lighten my criticism. Still, on a night where the ball was carrying, the Royals starter was obviously shaky and it looked like the Royals were going to need runs, they gave up an out for a chance to manufacture one. Sometimes it’s okay to sit back and see if you can get a big inning. Maybe the result is the same, but the mean by which you get there are different, and that’s what’s important. It’s worth noting that Yost pinch-hit for Quintero in the ninth after expecting a “big hit” from him before.

Will Smith came back and gave up three more runs immediately after the Royals squandered their opportunity. After giving up a homer to Justin Morneau and with Louis Coleman ready Yost left Smith in. He gave up another homer to Trevor Plouffe, then was lifted.

The Royals tried to chip back into it in the ninth, but it was too little, too late.

Kansas City will go back out tomorrow with Bruce Chen trying to even out the series. Francisco Liriano goes against him.

For as much credit as Dayton Moore and Co. get for their drafting strategy over the past six seasons, the first round hasn’t been all rainbows and roses as the narrative would lead to believe.

The drafting of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas would seem to be a success simply from the point that the Royals have two starting position players under contract for six years. There’s value there. Where those two picks become franchise-altering (perhaps some hyperbole there) is when one or both become the superstars fans want them to be.

The other four first-round picks however haven’t been all that great.

The best of the bunch so far is Luke Hochever* and no matter what a fan thinks of Hochevar, selecting him No.1 overall while not the kind of thing you write in your organization’s record books, but at the very least he’s provided innings for the team while there were so many to go around and not enough talent to take them.

*Yes, I know that Dayton Moore says he had nothing to do with that draft, and that’s fine. It was a point of debate in a post I did last year that we don’t need to get back into now. Moore gets credit for the pick because at the time of the draft he was already hired/an employee of the Royals. If he didn’t have anything to do with that draft, well then, he should have because he was already hired/an employee of the Royals.

Aaron Crow, Christian Colon, and Bubba Starling are where things get a bit foggier and look at the drafting narrative with a smirk and a raised eyebrow.

Crow was drafted, presumably, with an eye towards getting a pitcher that could move quickly through the system to match up with the same window as the position players in the organization. Not a bad idea if the college guy you’re drafting can stay a starter, but drafting a reliever that high in the first round isn’t the greatest use of the selection because he’s unlikely ever to see more than 80 innings in a year.

Colon, due to a perceived positional need of shortstop at the time, was plucked along with the fabled “leader” trait even though many had their doubts he would ever a) stick at short or b) hit enough to be considered a major league starter. So far it would seem that both concerns are valid as he’s now 23 and in Double-A and has yet to establish himself as a top prospect. Colon is having a good start to his season this year with encouraging power numbers, but a move off short remains eminent and taking a second baseman as high as Colon was taken is not usually a recipe for success.

Starling is the mystery. Not that the Royals drafted him but that he’s almost 20 years old and he’s yet to play a professional baseball game. Read that sentence again. We’re a year from the 2011 draft now and the local hero has yet to put on a pair of cleats in a game that matters. The tools are obviously there and many are incredibly excited about the prospects of a 6-5 centerfielder than can remain at the position, throw, hit, and run enough to be a star. But, there’s still much worry tied to his selection.

The Royals have had a great run of paying over-slot for post first-rounders to really bolster the overall value of the system, but now with the changes in the CBA that will make it harder for them to continue that strategy, the focus on the top pick becomes all the more important.

There are plenty of mock drafts out there, like the one Greg Schaum did or the one at BullpenBanter, with the consensus seeming to be that there is no consensus. This year’s top picks seem to be less predictable than in the past which may have more to do with the overall talent of the 2012 crop than the CBA, but no doubt a little of both are a factor.

The real question will be once all the chips fall where they do if the Royals take the best talent available again like they did with Hosmer and Moustakas, or if the reach on the talent and future projection of a player in hopes that he fits the time frame of contending, and can move faster through the system. It should be interesting, and something to keep an eye one.

The Good

Over their last 32 games, the Royals are 20-12. How about that? Twenty wins in 32 games is a far cry from losing the first 10 home games and only having seven five home victories through the latest series with the A’s. Can the Royals keep it up? Gosh, do we all hope.

The bullpen has been consistently fantastic this year even though there’s still worry that at some point they’ll all fall off the Being Productive Cliff because of being overworked. The Royals bullpen has been used the most in baseball this season, and it’s not particularly close. That they are as a group still as good as they are is nothing short of remarkable. Something, or someone, somewhere, needs to step up.

And perhaps it’s on offense. Alex Gordon seems to be slowly pulling his way out of his 6-weeks of slumps, but Billy Butler has found his way into one at the same time. That’s just bad timing.

Since there aren’t any reinforcements on the horizon for the starting rotation (here’s looking at you, Mike Montgomery) the offense needs to catch fire and have some high scoring games, allowing the rotation to get into the later innings, giving the bullpen a rest. And with the schedule coming up, they should be able to do just that.

The Bad

Yuniesky Betancourt. There’s no longer an excuse for the crowd that said it was a good thing to sign one of the worst everyday players in baseball this offseason as a backup. Why? Because it should have been known from the start that there was no way we would ever be relegated to backup or utility roles, and most of us knew better.

The amusing part of the Yuni Experiment is the correlation between the position battle at second to the position battle in center. Of course, in Royals terms, “battle” amounts to little more than firing Nerf Guns at each other while sitting on opposite couches in a living room. There’s never a clear winner and it’s really only something to do to pass the time away.

What’s funny about the situation between Jarrod Dyson versus Mitch Maier in center is that some KC media members, well one in particular, was fond of using the reasoning: “we know what Maier is and need to find out what Dyson is, so Dyson needs to play.”

Now while we could argue circles around that…ah screw it, I will.

We also know what Jarrod Dyson is at this point. He’s an all speed player with little other tools to either a) play up his speed or b) make his speed useful for being something more than a novelty. But, because the Royals need to find out what they have in Dyson, he plays. No harm, no foul. His speed is a better bet to impact games than any of Maier’s tools, so the reasoning is understandable.

The problem with the whole thing is the philosophy of player usage that is applied to one position – where the skills of the players is a relative wash – and not at another position where the skills are not a wash at all.

We know what Yuniesky Betancourt is, and we’ve known for awhile now. A limited (zero) range infielder with an inconsistent glove and a visceral aversion to walks and/or offensive outs in general. Betancourt giveth; Betancourt taketh away. And it rarely benefits the Royals.

But there sits Johnny Giavotella. A 24-near-25 year old who’s shown ability at every stop to get on base at a high rate and hit for enough power as a second baseman to be a valuable player. Is the defense shaky? Well sure, I don’t think anyone is arguing that it isn’t. What people are arguing however, and rightfully so, is that if you can watch Betancourt play and watch Giavotella play and come away thinking that Yuni is a far better defensive performer, well then you’re just not watching.
Even if Betancourt is better with the glove his career .293 wOBA more than proves that he isn’t capable of swinging a bat well enough to be considered a starter.

And if this is just some clever ruse to build value in Betancourt for a potential trade in July, I’m not buying. Utility players are usually somewhat of a commodity around the Trade Deadline, but Betancourt’s versatility centers around his ability to have his name written next to next different numbers on a lineup card, not his ability to play any of those positions well.

Sure, this is #OurMissionTime2012 and all, and it’s been pinpointed as a year to compete. But if you’re going to use the excuse of “we need to find out what we have” in a player that’s two years older than Giavotella, why isn’t that same reasoning not being used to find out what we have in him?

The Upcoming

The spelling of “Twins” really needs to have more “o’s” and “l’s” so I could make some variation of TwiLOLns. Yeah, that doesn’t work. Shucks.

What is a bit of fun though is watching the Twins circle the drain back to the Royals in the standings. The years of the vast superiority and the managerial genius of Ron Gardenhire has been replaced by his team’s talent being unable to overcome the fact that he can turn a 27 offensive out game into a 22 offensive out game like nobody’s business.* Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are fine, half of the time at least, it’s just the rest of the roster that leaves much to be desired.

*By the way, I was on a podcast and said this exact thing. I’m stealing from myself! Pretty neat. And, give it a listen.

As Rany Jazayerli pointed out a couple days ago, the Royals schedule for June sets up pretty nicely for them to really turn things around. Enough was said after the Royals slow start (well, it was said after the 12 game losing streak, conveniently) that the team would probably struggle for the first half of this season because of their youth. A 20-12 record over the last 32 games would lend some hope to the youth figuring some things out, and that anticipated second half surge has been bumped up a few weeks, and now the Royals are ready to make some noise.

Six games against the Twins and three against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Milwaukee should help the team rebound from a slow April. Then six against St. Louis and three against Tampa Bay and of the toughest nine games during the month, six are against a National League opponent and six are at home, where you would think things would start to turn around.

The Royals are currently 23-29 and 7 games back in the division. Another good month and (hopefully) the gap closing to the top of the division, and a month of July which would have ordinarily been looked at as the time to start unloading players for younger minor league talent, could drastically change. And a July where the Royals are actually knocking on the door of contention would be awesome, weird, incredibly, confusing, emotional, and a lot of fun.

The Royals had a great start to the homestand, taking 2 out or 3 from the Athletics and we were joined by KCTV 5′s Brad Fanning to break down the series. Brad also talked to us about his story on the Royals Baseball Academy that graduated players such as Frank White and Texas Manager Ron Washington to the big leagues. His full ten minute story can be found on KCTV5′s website.

Then we were joined by Wilmington Blue Rocks starting pitcher Jason Adam who talked to us about needing run support and life on Twitter.

We got into a discussion about the Royals ability to develop prospects and their philosophies entering the draft tonight.

We finished the show with Royalman’s Rant and what may or may not be a picture of Fake Ned underneath a Kansas flag.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

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Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Oakland entered the game as losers of eight straight and the Royals opened up doing everything they could to make sure they lost the ninth. Alex Gordon walked and a newly-activated Yuniesky Betancourt doubled to right-center to drive him in. After a fly ball moved him to third and a bloop by Mike Moustakas drove him in, the Royals had given Paulino two runs to work with. The Royals recorded eight hits, with every batter except Jarrod Dyson contributing one.

That’s all it took.

Felipe Paulino rolled on Friday night. Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Despite some shakiness in the middle innings, Paulino was strong, striking out five and inducing eight ground outs. He also picked off two runners, catching Jemile Weeks taking off for third too soon and catching him with a throw to Moustakas and later picked off Yeonis Cespedes at first. The A’s only got three hits, including one on a comebacker to the mound that Paulino lost after it deflected off his glove.

Over 29,000 fans saw the Royals win their first game after an off day and just their sixth game at home.

The Royals bullpen took over for the final three innings, continuing a stretch of scoreless innings. The last run surrendered by a Royals reliever came off of Jose Mijares on May 28, a string of 11.2 scoreless from the bullpen. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton finished things off, with each recording at least one strikeout. Holland allowed the only baserunner, walking Kurt Suzuki to lead off the eighth.

Broxton fought back from a 3-1 count to start the ninth against Josh Reddick, but came back to strike him out looking on a slider. He overmatched Cespedes, striking him out on on three straight swings on fastballs after starting him off with a ball. Kila Ka’aihue grounded out to short to end the game.

Paulino has a 1.70 ERA after 37 innings over six starts in 2012 with a 1.14 WHIP and 39 strikeouts. He’s given up runs in just two starts since coming off the disabled list and looks every bit like an ace of this pitching staff. He threw 94 pitches tonight and could have thrown more, but Ned Yost opted for the bullpen instead of sending him out again.

Tomorrow’s game starts at 1:10 p.m. with the Royals only a game behind Detroit and could end up in third place by the end of Saturday. Brandon McCarthy should be activated tomorrow to start for Oakland and Luke Hochevar will try to keep Oakland’s offense from waking up.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

In our third episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we had the pleasure to speak with legendary groundskeeper George Toma. Toma shared stories of working the grounds at Municipal Stadium when the A’s were in Kansas City, working with Charlie Finley and an incident with monkeys let loose in the ballpark. No, really.

We also got to talk with John Sadak (@johnsadak) the voice of the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sadak discussed the progress of Jason Adam, Yordano Ventura, Cheslor Cuthbert and gave us his insight into the Royals High A minor league affiliate.

This episode also featured a rant from Troy Olsen regarding the reaction to the Will Smith start on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Chris Kamler, of course, egged him on. We also covered the plight of Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer‘s continuing slump and other Royals-related topics.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

As the Royals finished their homestand, the Royalman Report added another episode of discussion.

This week, we recapped Fake Ned’s trip to Omaha and listened to comments from Storm Chasers General Manager Martie Cordero and pitchers Tommy Hottovy and Jake Odorizzi (who had debuted in Triple A on Friday).

We covered a lot of Omaha and minor league information, including Wil Myers‘s debut, Christian Colon‘s breakout, Mike Montgomery‘s issues and more. We also talked a bit about player development and the Royals and why some teams have figured it out and the Royals are still lagging.

Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas earned praise as well for carrying the team offensively – those guys are raking.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

May 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielders

I have an office mate; it’s like a roommate only if we’re hanging socks on the door we’re probably getting fired. He’s a smart guy. He’s a former college baseball player, and he’s a big Royals fan. We were recently wrapping up the end of the spring semester by talking about a Royals game from a while ago. He hadn’t seen it due to a night class he teaches, and I informed him that he missed a hell-of-a game.

It’s the one the Royals almost blew in the ninth in the first Yankees series. Jonathan Broxton was shaking like a 300-pound leaf, and consequently I was shaking like a slightly smaller leaf. He allowed two runners immediately and Mike Moustakas and Chris Getz had to make incredible plays to get the Royals out of Broxton’s jam. It was weird to look at a closer and immediately think that he looked nervous. Maybe he wasn’t. Maybe I was projecting my nerves onto him.

But either way, I was relaying all this to my office mate, and he brought up an interesting point. He started talking about a winning culture—one of those ambiguous phrases that analysts love to talk about alongside things like “grit” and “heart.” Of course he has a heart. They all have hearts or they wouldn’t be living … duh.

I thought back to the game and remembered seeing guys like Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez. In the moments during which Broxton looked very much like a young pitcher, these guys looked like they might be taking cuts in the corporate challenge—as pressure packed as that is. It never looked forced with them, as if the outcome of the game wasn’t even in their hands, like fate was in control. They were going to take their swings and something was going to happen, but at the end of the day they were multi-millionaires and get laid whenever they want. So, no big whup.

Since that conversation with my friend, I’ve been thinking about that game and a winning culture because so much of what people mark as a deficiency of the Royals is the lack of a “winning culture.” I think a winning culture does exist, but I can’t exactly define it. I think if you asked most ball players, they would agree, but I’m guessing they’d have trouble coming up with a solid definition as well. What is a winning culture? What does it look like? What does it take to get one? Why don’t the Royals have one? Or do they and it’s just not resulting in actual wins?

I don’t necessarily have answers to these questions. In fact, I’d like you to answer them in the comments section so I can learn something. I do believe though that teams with a winning culture look like the Yankees looked that night. They didn’t win, but I think teams with a winning culture present an ethos that says We’re going to win, and I’m more concerned with this blonde in the second row than my potential inability to come through in this clutch moment. It doesn’t enter the mind of winners that they may fail. They know that they may fail, on some level, but it doesn’t register at that moment. It doesn’t drive their play in any way.

As I stated above, I definitely don’t have all the answers. I do think that the Royals don’t quite have what I would consider a winning culture. Part of that is their youth. I watched Johnny Giavotella hitting with a man on second and the other day and on a 3-2 fastball WAY out of the strike zone he whiffed completely. I remember thinking He’s trying to do too much to impress Ned and GMDM. That’s understandable. He wants to stay in the majors and get playing time. Right now, too many Royals are concerned with avoiding failure—Giavotella, Jarrod Dyson, many starting pitchers—for the group to have the type of winning culture that a team like the Yankees has. Time and some increased confidence from success should remedy that.

This isn’t really an article to provide answers but ask questions. So, let’s hear what you think about a winning culture in baseball. That’s what I really want. This is my call for answers. How does a team—say a young, nearly rebuilt team, from the Midwest—build a winning culture? What distinguishes a team with a winning culture from a team with a losing culture? Let me know in comments AND e-mail Dayton Moore and Ned Yost. They’d probably like to know.