But let us pause and remember those Royals who left the organization over the winter with a little “Where are they now?” examination.

The Trade

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

One of the biggest moves of the MLB offseason was the Royals trade of Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and (eventually) Elliot Johnson. It’s natural to look wistfully at Durham to see how the Royals prospects are faring.

Wil Myers

I’m sure there’s a little part of every Royals fan who was hoping that Myers would flop outside of the Royals organization. Just a little. So far, however, that’s not the case. The Rays are playing service time games and stashing him in Triple A, where Myers is, understandably, raking.

He’ll probably make it to the big leagues in June.

Of course he wasn’t the only part of the trade. The Royals also sent Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery (as well as Patrick Leonard) to Tampa.

Mike Montgomery

Montgomery gave up four runs in three innings during spring training and, so far, hasn’t been able to tap back into the talent that made him a top pitching prospect as recently as 2011. He was placed on the seven day disabled list on April 21 after making just one start for Durham.

Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi is still able to strike batters out, but he’s still averaging less than six innings a start due to more pitch count questions. He’s striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings so far, which bodes well for some success. If he becomes a bit more efficient he’ll be leaning more towards the #2/#3 starter ceiling rather than his #4 safe zone.

Patrick Leonard

Things haven’t gone as well for Leonard since the trade. He showed good power and on base ability with the Burlington Royals in the Appalachian League last year, but in Low A Bowling Green, he’s striking out a quarter of the time but with no power to show for it. He’s still just 20 years old and there’s time to grow, so if I’m a Tampa fan, I’m not worried, but from a Royals fan perspective, I’m not sweating losing his bat.

The main components to this are projecting the WAR values from each player for the contracts/player control time that was traded.  Then coming up with a discount rate, that would approximate the win inflation over the time period, to make sure wins this year are worth more than subsequent years.  The rest of it is just simple math.  As you can see I am not including Elliot Johnson, Mike Montgomery, or Patrick Leonardas I believe there value to the teams is either zero or close enough to zero that I can ignore

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

them.  I put James Shields down for two seasons similar to last year at 4 WAR each, and then zero from then on out since his contract will end.  Then I projected Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and played with what Wade Davis would have to do to make the trade somewhat even.  You can quibble a lot with these projections, but whatever they are, Davis is going to have to be pretty good to make this trade valuable for the Royals.  TWins are a sum of all WAR for the year for that side of the trade (Shields + Davis or Myers + Odorizzi), and DWins use the discount rate to present value the wins in terms of now.  As I go on I will be discussing how to make a model like this better since this one is pretty simple.

First, the projections need to be better.  I am pretty comfortable with Shields, but the others are much harder to project.  My preference would be to crowd source these win values to get expectations from multiple fan bases both biased and unbiased, but that would require me having a significant amount more power in the blogosphere.  In lieu of that I will probably need to go look at scouting expectations and then use aging curves for the three players who are younger and going to be around for a while.  Once you have those it is just a matter of setting a discount rate.  A win this year is more valuable than a win next year, and though you could argue for specific times and specific teams this could change a lot, I think this is still a good assumption.  How to set the actual discount rate could go several ways though.

You could try and set a league wide discount rate using win inflation, meaning look at what team payrolls are per WAR year over year recently, and then project an inflation rate from there.  This could be a good way to set the rate, but it is not what I was thinking.  You could also do this on a team by team basis since the Tampa Bay way won’t allow it to grow payroll at the same rate as the Dodgers or Yankees.  Personally, I would prefer to set inflation rates separately for the players.  The model above assumes one discount rate, consistent with a league-wide win inflation rate, but I think each player’s risk profile might give better results.  That way we could use what we know about the players to set the rate.  Prospects are riskier, so their discount rate should be higher than established big leaguers (we are more confident in what James Shields will be than the other three so his discount rate should be lower).  Also, pitchers should probably have a higher discount rate than position players due to higher injury risk and year to year variation.  Once you have done all this, a good estimate of each trading team’s expected present value of wins should be formulated, and then you move on to money.

One team or the other (or for multi-team trades you could compare more) is going to have an edge in WAR expectancy, but that is not the only factor.  Payroll should be used as well.  In the case of this trade the Royals have a lower win expectancy and took on more payroll with Shields’ contract, which is why most stat heads gave the clear victory to the Rays on the trade.  Anyway, that is an introduction to the method I would like to develop.  If you like it or have any questions or modifications I should consider let me know.

One year after being named the Kansas City Royals top prospect according to Baseball America and being one of the late cuts during spring training, left-handed starter Mike Montgomery ended the 2012 season with a demotion to Double-A.

Montgomery has struggled with his delivery and command of his fastball (which leads to deep pitch counts). He has a plus changeup, but no other plus offspeed pitches. He has also given up the long ball in the last two seasons, 24 in 2012 and 15 in 2011.

After struggling in his final 22 outings in Triple-A in 2011, it was his first hiccup of his career. The Royals and scouts were not worried about long-term issues. However, the hiccup carried over for another season and his confidence has faltered. The Royals did show some confidence by putting him on the 40-man roster.

He started the 2012 season in Triple-A for a second consecutive season. He was no better than the year before. In 17 starts, he was 3-6 with a 5.69 ERA. In 91.2 innings, he allowed 110 hits and 43 walks compared to 67 strikeouts. In his demotion to NW Arkansas, he was worse. In ten starts totaling 58 innings, he allowed 69 hits and walked 21. He did strike out 44, but was just 2-6 with a 6.67 ERA. In his final two starts of the season, Montgomery allowed 13 runs over 12 innings. Though he only walked two, he allowed 16 hits and six homeruns.

MLB.com still ranks Montgomery as the Royals sixth best prospect, but Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star dropped him to 12th. It will be interesting to see what the Royals do with Montgomery in 2013. Maybe they will keep him in extended spring training to start the season and then decide on what level to ship him off to.

But the big task of the day was setting up a 40 man roster that protected players from the Rule 5 draft.

Mike Montgomery. Photo: Minda Haas

Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Donnie Joseph, Chris Dwyer, Justin Marks and Juan Gutierrez were all added to the 40 man roster and are not subject to selection in the December 6th Rule 5 draft. All are pitchers, with Gutierrez being the lone right-hander. We talked briefly about each of these players this morning. Montgomery and Lamb aren’t surprises, since both have been among the better ranked prospects in the organization for years. Joseph is major league ready and would have been a player likely to be selected by another team. Dwyer may have been on the fence but the Royals must still believe in his talent and that he’ll capture some command.

Marks and Gutierrez are surprises though. Marks has jumped up a lot after a standout performance in the Arizona Fall League. Gutierrez is pitching well in winter ball.

The bad part of this process means that players need to be moved off the roster. To accommodate the six pitchers and Guthrie, the Royals designated seven players for assignment: catchers Brayan Pena and Adam Moore, outfielder Derrick Robinson, first baseman Clint Robinson, left-handed pitcher Ryan Verdugo and right-handers Vin Mazzaro and Chris Volstad.

The Royals have ten days to either trade, release or send any of the seven to the minors. If they did end up back in the minors, they’d still be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Both Robinsons were in the discussion to be designated for a while. Clint Robinson should get a look from another organization and Derrick Robinson might be of interest to some teams, but he’s likely to make it through if I had to guess. Moore might find a taker from another organization looking for a backup. Pena could as well.

March 13, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Brayan Pena (27) stands on the dugout steps before the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

It seems year after year Pena is at risk of being moved off the Royals roster. He’s arbitration eligible so his salary was starting to be too great for his contributions. He’s likely to latch on elsewhere. Considered one of the good guys in the game, Pena’s always been a sentimental favorite, but it’s a business and objectively, he’s easy to replace. We talked with him back when Salvador Perez was close to coming off the 60 day disabled list and the possibility of Pena’s departure was significant back then, too.

Verdugo made one disastrous start last year and otherwise pitched well in Omaha, but he’s always had control problems and when he wasn’t called up in September, the writing was mostly on the wall. He talked about it with the Kansas City Baseball Vault just a couple of weeks ago. He’s left-handed, which is bound to get him another look.

Mazzaro has never gotten past the 14 run, 2.1 inning performance against Cleveland from May 16, 2011. He started to see some success last year in Omaha in relief, but the Royals have given up on him. He’s only 26 and should get a look someplace in middle relief. It’s interesting that of the two players the Royals acquired for David DeJesus – Mazzaro and Marks – the one considered the throw-in is the one sticking around.

And finally that brings us to Chris Volstad. Much ado was made when the Royals claimed Volstad off waivers from the Cubs earlier in the month. Many fans weren’t happy and the message afterward hinted that the Royals were going to try to pick pitchers off the scrap heap and repurpose them for the rotation. Instead, Volstad is moving off the roster.

In one more move, the Royals and catcher Brett Hayes agreed to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration. Hayes will make $600,000 in 2013, according to Bob Dutton. The Royals claimed him off waivers from the Marlins earlier in the month and he’s the de facto backup catcher as of now. The Royals have two catchers on the 40 man roster – Hayes and Sal Perez.

Any of these players could end up being non-roster invitees to spring training with a chance to make the team out of Arizona, but they’re all facing obstacles for that ending.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

In the latest episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, our guest was former Kansas City Athletic and current Royals senior pitching advisor Bill Fischer.

Fischer talked about his time with the A’s and in pitching, as well as his time as a coach and advisor. We asked him about pitching today, a few Royals prospects (Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura in particular) and his approach to the game and pitching development.

The rest of the show was spent discussing the front office, decision-making, and what it’ll take to get this team back to being a winner. Since the hope of a great season is mostly gone, we focused on the things we’re going to pay attention to for the rest of the year and those players that we enjoy seeing play even during the rough games.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

They say “never say it can’t get any worse”. We’ve already tried to get through the tough 12 game losing streak but a good stretch of play just got everyone’s hopes up. The Royals aren’t very good right now, and in this episode we tried to figure out why and what can be done.

With that in mind, we talked about pitching development (and you can see KoK Alumni Jeff Herr’s in depth article about it here), the next wave coming and what kind of things might go down as the trade deadline approaches.

(Also, technology was a bit down in the dumps too during recording, as we almost lost the first half of the show. We blame Frenchy.)

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

The Storm Chasers came back with three runs in the bottom of the 9th inning, capped by Johnny Giavotella‘s two-run homerun. Clint Robinson, who hit a two-run homerun in the first inning, popped up with the tying run on first base to end the game.

Brian Fletcher

NW Arkansas broke their losing streak with a 5-4 victory over Arkansas in the series finale. The Naturals used the homerun ball to end the streak. John Whittleman hit a two-run homerun in the first inning and Brian Fletcher hit a three-run homerun in the 5th inning.

Mike Montgomery earned the victory in his first home game with the Naturals since 2010. He allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits and four walks over 6.1 innings. He threw 89 pitches, just 48 for strikes. Juan Gutierrez returned to the mound after Tommy John surgery (he signed with the KC Royals this past offseason) and struck out two in his one inning of relief.

In case you haven’t heard, veteran catcher Jason Kendall signed a minor league deal with the Royals and has been added to the Naturals roster. He is expected to start for them on Friday. Maybe he can help their struggling pitchers?

It took until there was one out in the top of the 8th inning for Wilmington to pick up their first (and only) hit of the game against Myrtle Beach’s Kyle Hendricks. That hit came via Murray Watts, who picked up an RBI double. Problem is, the Blue Rocks lost 2-1, as they were swept by the Pelicans.

Jason Adam was the hard luck loser, as he dropped to 2-10 on the season. He was again beaten by the longball; he allowed a two-run homerun in the bottom of the 5th inning. He only allowed two hits and one walk while striking out four. Hendricks struck out at least one batter in every inning except the 6th (he pitched 7.1 innings), for a total of eight.

Kane County‘s game at Bowling Green was suspended, with the Cougars winning 2-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning. Angel Baez had pitched a perfect inning in the start. A rain delay of close to two hours halted the game and it will be made up on Friday night (the regularly scheduled game will follow with a seven-inning affair).

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling hit his third homerun of his career in the first inning in Burlington’s 4-3 win over Danville. Starling went 2-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base (his third of the season).

Irving Falu and Clint Robinson each had two hits in the win.

Jake Odorizzi improved to 6-0 in Triple-A, as he allowed the one run on seven hits and four walks over six innings. He struck out four.

March 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Mike Montgomery (22) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for Mike Montgomery, they did. He was demoted to Double-A NW Arkansas and lost on Saturday night to Springfield, 5-1. He allowed all five runs on six hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six while throwing 60 of his 92 pitches for strikes.

The Naturals offense was dormant, with their lone run coming via a Carlo Testa homerun. They had just three hits.

The Naturals have now lost three in a row and will try to salvage the series finale at Springfield on Sunday.

Wilmington moved to within a game of first place in the Northern Division of the Carolina League with a 6-3 win over Potomac. Elisaul Pimentel picked up his first win since being sent back to the Blue Rocks. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Matt Fields hit another homerun, his 9th since joining the Blue Rocks, while Lane Adams went 3-for-4. Whit Merrifield went 2-for-5 in the win.

Kane County beat West Michigan, 6-4. The two teams combined for 21 hits and seven errors. Justin Trapp led off and went 3-for-5 with a homerun. Dean Espy and Tim Ferguson each collected two hits.

Bryan Brickhouse picked up the win, as he allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits over six innings. He struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Burlington moved on to Princeton, but had the same result that they had over the last three days in Kingsport: another postponement.

Mike Montgomery. (Photo: Minda Haas)

In a move that is mildly surprising but not really shocking, the Royals demoted Mike Montgomery to Double A Northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning and promoted Chris Dwyer from the Naturals to Omaha, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.

Both left-handed pitchers have notably struggled in the last two seasons after success up to the A-ball level.

Dwyer’s been stuck in Double A since 2010, making four starts there that season, playing all of 2011 there and only recently showing any signs of consistent command. Montgomery looked good enough to make the big league club in 2011 during spring training but was sent down anyway and hasn’t been the same since the middle of 2010 when he had some arm issues that nagged him.

Dwyer has had a number of strong outings this year for the Naturals and it felt like the 24-year-old was close to at least getting bumped up from Double A for once. He threw the first seven innings of a Naturals no-hitter in May and over his last six starts, he’s thrown 31 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a 25/9 K/BB ratio.

Montgomery had two absolute bombs in his last three starts, giving up 11 runs in 1.1 innings (even though only 4 were earned) and 8 runs in his next start July 3. He had a 24/9 K/BB ratio in his last 24.1 innings, but also gave up 40 base hits in that time. There have been suggestions that his velocity may be down, too.

Ideally, this works as a wakeup call for Montgomery and he gets back to the guy who rocketed through the low levels getting everybody out. He’s competitive and maybe he’ll be pushed by this move. Aaron Crow was demoted as a starter in 2010 from Double A to High A and came back the next spring and earned a spot in the bullpen, eventually being named an All-Star.

Or, maybe Montgomery keeps languishing. He really hasn’t been sharp for a while now and while he’s just 23 years old, poor results are still poor results. He still has the stuff to be a strong starter, but the likelihood he can reach that potential is shrinking.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Mike Montgomery had another rough start for the Storm Chasers. He allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out six.

In the loss, Max Ramirez went 2-for-3 with two doubles and three RBIs. Kurt Mertins went 3-for-4 with his second homerun of the season.

NW Arkansas has now lost seven in a row, as they lost their series opener at home to San Antonio, 4-1. The Naturals collected just four hits, with the lone run coming via Mario Lisson‘s solo homerun in the 7th inning.

The Naturals are now six games back in the North Division of the Texas League (last place) at just 4-12 in the second half.

Jason Adam

Jason Adam‘s dominant start on Sunday was spoiled by the late inning heroics of Myrtle Beach, as the Pelicans beat Wilmington 2-1 in ten innings. The Pelicans scored a run in the top of the 9th inning to tie the game.

It was Adam’s best start in a LONG time, as he allowed just three hits and a walk over 7.1 innings. He struck out nine (a career-high). He gave up his first hit with one out in the 4th inning (also his first base runner). The 5th inning was the only inning that the Pelicans had more than one base runner. Adam retired eight in a row before allowing a single in the 8th inning that chased him from the game.

Right-hander Yordano Ventura, who started for the World team in the Futures Game, was promoted to Double-A (according to Blue Rocks radio announcer John Sadak).

Despite collecting eight hits, Kane County lost to Wisconsin, 10-0. They went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position.

Bryan Brickhouse had another rough start for the Cougars. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings.

In the loss, the 5-6 hitters (Julio Aparicio and Alex Llanos) went 6-for-8, but obviously did not score any runs.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a double, a run scored, and an RBI in Burlington’s 6-5 walk-off win. He walked in their 9th inning comeback.

Mike Montgomery (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Omaha was pounded by New Orleans, 12-1. Mike Montgomery took the loss, as he allowed 11 runs (four earned) on 11 hits over just 1.1 innings. He threw 54 pitches in the disastrous start.

The bullpen held the Zephyrs to one run on seven hits the rest of the way. In the middle, Louis Coleman threw two hitless innings of relief and struck out four. Twenty of his 27 pitches were strikes.

Newly-named Pacific Coast League All-Star Clint Robinson went 2-for-4 with two doubles and the lone RBI. Outfielder Wil Myers, along with pitchers Tommy Hottovy and Ryan Verdugo were also named to the PCL All-Star team.

Tonight was the Texas League All-Star Game and five NW Arkansas players got into the game. John Whittleman got the start at first base for the North and went 0-for-2. Carlo Testa got the start in left field and also went 0-for-2. Yem Prades played the whole game in right field and went 0-for-3. Those three batted 6-7-8 in the North’s order.

Mario Lisson, who replaced the injured Christian Colon on the ASG roster, went 1-for-2 at shortstop (he came off the bench in the 5th inning). Patrick Keating made an appearance in the 7th inning. He walked one in an inning of work.

The North beat the South 3-1. Former KC Royals minor leaguer Kevin Chapman, who was traded to Houston during spring training, pitched 1/3 of an inning. He allowed a hit in the 8th inning (to Lisson).

Wilmington launched a four-run 8th inning to come back and beat Lynchburg, 6-5. The tying run scored on a safety squeeze from Whit Merrifield (who went 3-for-3). The go ahead run scored via a throwing error on that same play. If you want to know more about the game, check out my live blog from the game. Jason Adam did not pick up a win, but thankfully did not pick up his tenth loss.

Blue Rocks manager Vance Wilson talked after the win about his newest players, the bunt by Merrifield, Adam’s struggles with the long ball, and the outings from relievers Nick Rogers and Sam Runion.

Kane County came back with two runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to defeat Burlington, 6-5. With two outs, Julio Aparicio singled in the two runs.

Bryan Brickhouse got the start for the Cougars, but allowed four runs on six hits and three walks over just four innings. Cody Fassold followed with three hitless innings of relief. He walked two and struck out four.

*Bubba Starling’s debut netted 644 fans in Johnson City. He started in centerfield, batted third, and went 0-for-5 with a walk, a run scored, and three strikeouts. He was taken out for defense in the final inning. Catcher Cameron Gallagher also returned to the lineup (he went 2-for-6)

Mike Montgomery should get a shot in the Royals' rotation. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

So far this season, the Royals have used 22 different pitchers (including Mr. Terrific, Mitch Maier). They used 23 in all of 2011, 25 in 2010, 23 in 2009, and 25 in 2008. I don’t know that that means too much, except when you look at last season’s roster, a few of those guys didn’t show up in Kansas City until the second half or late in the year. We’ve got a little ways to go and there are always a few guys (Ryan Verdugo, Doug Davis, Brandon Sisk, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, etc.) who could arrive and vault that total number toward 30. If things keep moving as they are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen.

Well, we’re down two starters to Tommy John surgery: Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Their replacements, Vin Mazzaro and Luis Mendoza, haven’t been quite as terrible as some would have predicted, but they haven’t helped out the cause lately, either. And that makes you wonder where the starts are going to come from. If the Royals’ bats can’t stack up enough runs to offset the replacement pitchers, what do they do to win?

Honestly, it’s hard to say. One thing I’d like to see them try, however, is to hit the brakes on the pitcher shuffling with Omaha. Stop grabbing relievers at random and bringing them up because the starters aren’t cutting it. If the starters are the issue, try new starters. Try something different. Try Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi.

I understand why they may not want to do this. You lose options on those guys if they come to Kansas City and then implode, necessitating a return to Omaha. They’re both 22, and it’s possible they get slammed and lose confidence a bit. Or, if they have the mental resolve (which I’m in no place to comment on), they rebound and work harder the next time. Montgomery has been laboring at Omaha for a while now, and his starts have been touch-and-go during that time. It’s really difficult to say just how he’d throw with the Royals, but he may need that experience to take a step forward. As for Odorizzi, he hasn’t been in Omaha nearly as long, but he’s pitched well and struck out just over three batters per every walk. Now, he needs to get some more grounders (0.39 groundout/flyout on the season with Omaha), but there’s seemingly little else he needs to do.

And, mainly, the Royals need arms.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

As I said, they could call up Doug Davis. He’s been throwing fairly well so far and could potentially eat some innings for the Royals. He could be a potential stopgap in the bleeding rotation. But he’s not nearly as important to the Royals as Montgomery and Odorizzi are.

If the Royals’ plan is to hold their biggest remaining cards (Wil Myers, Montgomery, Odorizzi, mainly) for a big splash in 2013, I get that idea. But they have shown signs of life this season and could at least edge into the conversation, even if they have a low probability of winning the division. Some youthful sparks could do that, though, of course, it’s hard to say what will happen.

But if the biggest argument is not rushing them (which I’ve used before many times), then at least Montgomery should get a shot at a few starts. Try it out and if he sticks, great. If not, no harm, no foul, and he hopefully learns something. I find this a hard argument to make, as I tend to be a “wait-and-see” sort of guy, but when we’re relying on shutouts from Luke Hochevar and strong pitching from Bruce Chen or Jonathan Sanchez, we’re already in trouble. Pitching was a question mark before the season and it’s developed into an even bigger one as the season has progressed. It may be time to try something novel rather than resort to the same method we’ve been using.

So, I’m going back on my prior debate about whether Mike Montgomery or Will Smith was the right choice for a call-up. Mike Montgomery is the right choice at this moment. He appears to be starting to strike out a few more batters. He’s inducing more grounders than flyballs on the season. And, potentially most importantly, he’s been with Omaha long enough to learn a few things. I feel like the coaching staff with the Royals could help him a bit in his progression, as would seeing stronger batters and experiencing the life of a big league starter.

Some of these reasons may seem trivial or tenuous. I understand that. I just think we’ve been riding the same old pitching merry-go-round for long enough. It’s time to try something new and see how that works.

Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi should be that something new.

March 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Mike Montgomery (22) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

After winning ten in a row, Omaha has now lost two straight, as they lost the finale in Nashville on Sunday, 4-1. The Storm Chasers out-hit the Sounds, 10-6 but committed three errors, went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and grounded into two double plays.

Wil Myers went 4-for-5, but did not score a run. Salvador Perez caught all nine innings (but did not collect a hit).

With the injury to Chris Getz at the big league level, Johnny Giavotella was taken out after his first at-bat (a first inning strikeout). Max Ramirez replaced Gio in the lineup and went 2-for-4.

Mike Montgomery was solid, despite the loss. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks over six innings.

NW Arkansas ended their two game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over Springfield to split the four-game series. Chris Dwyer pitched into the 8th inning before really getting into trouble. He allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out six.

The Cardinals made it interesting in the 9th inning, but Buddy Baumann worked around an RBI double and two walks to escape with the save.

Yem Prades provided the insurance (and actual game winning run) with a solo homerun in the top of the 9th inning. Eric Duncan gave the Naturals the lead in the 4th inning with a two-run homerun.

Wilmington tied an unfortunate record in the team’s history: most losses in a first half. They tied the 2000 team with 41 first half losses. The 2000 team (which was full of prospects at the time) was one of the worst teams in history. The Blue Rocks lost to Winston-Salem, 6-5 in ten innings to end the first half.

It was a bullpen game for the Blue Rocks and they actually led 4-1 before the Dash scored three runs in the 4th inning. Nick Rogers was the hard-luck loser, as he allowed an unearned run in the top of the 10th inning. He walked three (he did not allow a hit) over 2.1 innings.

The bottom two in the Blue Rocks order, bench players Michael Liberto and Luis Piterson, went 4-for-9. The Blue Rocks out-hit the Dash, 11-9, but went just 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and struck out 12 times.

The Blue Rocks have the next three days off for the All-Star break and hopefully can forget about the first half and play better when the second half starts on Thursday in Carolina.

Kane County is heading into the All-Star break on a down note, just like the Blue Rocks. The Cougars have lost five in a row (and eight of their last nine), as they lost Sunday’s finale to Cedar Rapids, 5-3. The Cougars bullpen did throw four hitless (and scoreless) innings of relief.

On offense, Daniel Mateo, Jorge Bonifacio, and Orlando Calixte each had two hits (six of the team’s eight hits). Calixte hit his tenth homerun of the season.

Going into 2011, the Royals had a slew of high-profile arms in their system. Baseball America placed five pitchers within their top 100 rankings.

Danny Duffy reached the majors and mostly struggled, came out in 2012 and looked impressive. Then a UCL tear ended his season. He just underwent successful Tommy John surgery himself. Mike Montgomery, lauded as the top prospect in the system before 2012 by Baseball America, has had a handful of exciting starts, but mostly has had the same command and control issues that plagued him last season. Jake Odorizzi has made an impression in Triple A and has jumped in front of the group as the best pitching prospect anywhere near the majors. Chris Dwyer has struggled since reaching Double A and is running out of time.

All four, along with Lamb, were top 100 prospects. Lamb, at #18, was considered the best.

There hasn’t been any indication of what level Lamb may end up at to start his rehab pitching, but he’ll probably toil in lower levels to get back to game speed with a shot at a couple of Double A starts at the end of the year. Perhaps if things go well enough, he might see a stop in Triple A, which would set him up nicely to return to that level next spring with an opportunity to make his way to Kansas City in mid-season.

It all depends on his elbow and how he’s able to regain his strength.

Lamb never relied on high velocity to be effective, though he can work in the low-90s with his fastball. His best weapon is hitting spots with his fastball. He’s a tough, smart pitcher who had control of his secondary pitches early in 2011 and looked like he might reach Omaha by season’s end.

So if he arm strength is there and the stuff returns, it’s not out of the question to see him in Triple A. It’s just unlikely.

Often, a pitcher still needs a lot of time to get back to full speed, though rehab programs and recovery times are making that regrouping window smaller and smaller in many cases. Every injury is different, so it’s not fair to hold Lamb to the standard of Stephen Strasburg, who returned to the big leagues just over a year after having Tommy John surgery. The Royals also had enough cause to hold Lamb back since he wasn’t automatic for Triple A and the Royals weren’t looking for him to contribute at the major league level this soon either.

Lamb was a trainee with Jaeger Sports, and I’m sure he’s adopted much of their long toss teachings to get back in shape. The additional arm strength may even add some zip to his fastball and help his endurance as he returns. We’ll have to see as he makes his way back and gets into games.

We have to wait on Duffy. Dwyer may never be more than a reliever, if that. Montgomery will still probably be up this year, but who knows how well he’ll be able to do. Odorizzi is the best of the bunch (thankfully). But Odorizzi alone won’t be enough when the organization ends up sniffing contention again. John Lamb would be a fine complement – so hopefully all goes well starting next month.

Enter Humberto Quintero.

Oh boy, Humberto. (Screengrab via Reddit)

Sure, it looked like typical clubhouse hazing, but some are upset. You see, Bruce Chen is Asian ethnically (though he was born in Panama), and Quintero’s actions were to creep up behind Chen and harken back to school yard hijinks by pulling his eyes into a squint with his fingers.

On the national stage, even.

Chen has since responded and, Chen being Chen, has handled the incident with humor and grace to downplay a situation that otherwise could have been awkward for Fox, the Royals, and the players involved.

I am proud to be of asian descent and I love the way my eyes look!I think it makes me look sexy.I am not offended by Quinteros actions

— Bruce Chen (@ChenMusic) June 10, 2012

He later added that Quintero was pointing out one of his best features.

I don’t think Quintero meant any offense towards Chen and he’s been considered somewhat of a prankster anyway (he used to have the nickname Barney Rubble in San Diego and had a Fred Flintstone poster over his locker during spring training). Baseball players are around each other and on the road for most of the year, and often they have downtime to come up with all sorts of inside jokes and to goof around. This seems derived from that but it happened to show up during a national broadcast.

The Royals likely aren’t going to bring this up anymore save for some statement that Quintero feels regret for the gesture and that it was a dugout joke.

Should he get off that easily? How much does intent matter in these kinds of situations?

It’s an issue that goes beyond just sports. My take is that, yes, it’s offensive just as it would be if Quintero came up behind anyone he didn’t know who happened to be Asian and did the same thing. He shouldn’t be off the hook and even if Chen doesn’t take offense, others have. Any discipline will be doled out in-house and we might not ever hear about the reaction of the front office.

At the top of the list is Kyle Zimmer, their first round pick out of San Francisco. The 20-year-old is said to be fairly close to coming to a deal with the Royals on a signing bonus and could be assigned to a minor league affiliate soon, according to Bob Dutton.

The Royals have already signed a few picks from day two: Colin Rodgers, Fred Ford, Alfredo Escalana-Maldonado, Parker Morin and Dylan Sons. Three of those came out of the Royals top ten picks so their bonus amounts will count towards the draft pool allotment established by Major League Baseball.

Here’s the breakdown of the Royals 40 selections:

• Left-handed pitchers: 10
• Right-handed pitchers: 14
• Catchers: 3
• First basemen: 2
• Second basemen: 1
• Shortstops: 1 (though Kenny Diekroeger is likely to move to second base rather than stay at shortstop)
• Third basemen: 0
• Outfielders: 9
• High school players: 17
• College/Junior College: 23
• College seniors: 2

I specify the college seniors because a trend started to develop yesterday where many teams were taking college seniors (who don’t have as much leverage in bonus negotiations) earlier than some prospects who were projected to go higher as a way to manipulate some of the bonuses handed out. The Royals didn’t get on that train, it seems, though they did lean college-heavy overall.

One particular selection is interesting in what it symbolizes. Austin Fairchild was the 16th round pick by the Royals. He’s a left-hander out of St. Thomas High School in Texas and stands six feet tall and weighs about 170 pounds. What’s so special about that? Fairchild is a long-toss pitcher, meaning a large part of his training in the offseason and between starts involves playing catch at distances up to 300 feet. Many training programs established by teams limit that distance to 120 feet or so. In the past, the Royals have been resistant to these types of programs despite drafting adherents like Mike Montgomery and John Lamb.

With the hiring of Rick Knapp as their minor league pitching coordinator and the drafting of Fairchild, it seems that the Royals are opening up to the idea of utilizing long-toss as part of their development or at the very least, embracing the idea that one size doesn’t fit all when it comes to pitching development. (You can hear more about such long-toss programs in our interview with Alan Jaeger of Jaeger Sports on the Royalman Report.)

Now that the draft is over, it’s time to sign the picks. The Royals have five out of the way now, and with an earlier deadline than in years past, they’re working quickly on locking up Zimmer and the rest. The sooner they get a signature, the sooner these players can be assigned to minor league teams or start work in Surprise at the Royals training facility.

All picks from the 2012 draft are tracked on MLB.com and can be filtered by team.

The Royals also picked Hayden Edwards, a 6’7″ right-handed pitcher out of Blue Valley High School in Stillwell, Kansas (31st round) and Ashton Goudeau a 6’6″ righty from Maple Woods Community College (27th round).

In our third episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we had the pleasure to speak with legendary groundskeeper George Toma. Toma shared stories of working the grounds at Municipal Stadium when the A’s were in Kansas City, working with Charlie Finley and an incident with monkeys let loose in the ballpark. No, really.

We also got to talk with John Sadak (@johnsadak) the voice of the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sadak discussed the progress of Jason Adam, Yordano Ventura, Cheslor Cuthbert and gave us his insight into the Royals High A minor league affiliate.

This episode also featured a rant from Troy Olsen regarding the reaction to the Will Smith start on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Chris Kamler, of course, egged him on. We also covered the plight of Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer‘s continuing slump and other Royals-related topics.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

As the Royals finished their homestand, the Royalman Report added another episode of discussion.

This week, we recapped Fake Ned’s trip to Omaha and listened to comments from Storm Chasers General Manager Martie Cordero and pitchers Tommy Hottovy and Jake Odorizzi (who had debuted in Triple A on Friday).

We covered a lot of Omaha and minor league information, including Wil Myers‘s debut, Christian Colon‘s breakout, Mike Montgomery‘s issues and more. We also talked a bit about player development and the Royals and why some teams have figured it out and the Royals are still lagging.

Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas earned praise as well for carrying the team offensively – those guys are raking.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

We also talked with former Kansas City Athletic Joe Rudi. The three time All Star and Gold Glove winner talked about coming up through the minors, dealing with Charlie Finley, and world championships.

Jeff Logan discussed upcoming events from the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society, including the monthly meeting this May 24 at the Westport Flea Market and the upcoming Kansas City A’s reunion on June 8. We also gave away Kansas City T-Bones tickets to three lucky callers in our weekly trivia contest.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Kevin Goldstein of ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus about such topics as the Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi promotions, Eric Hosmer, and other prospects. Kevin’s a great baseball commentator and shared his time with us back in November. Quite a bit has changed since then. You can follow Kevin at @Kevin_Goldstein on Twitter.

We also have former major league catcher Doc Edwards lined up as our second guest. Doc played for the Kansas City A’s from 1963 to 1965 and currently manages the San Angelo Colts in the United Baseball League. He’s supposedly going to call us from the dugout during a game, so maybe we’ll see if we can call a squeeze play during the show.

Just like last week, we plan to have a trivia question and a giveaway, so be sure to listen in. Last week, three listeners won free ticket packages to go see the Kansas City T-Bones. You like winning things, right?

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Tonight marks the start of an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Mike Hershberger, a former outfielder for the Kansas City A’s during their final years before leaving KC for Oakland. Hershberger carved out a nice career, playing in 11 major league seasons for three teams as a well-regarded defensive player who patrolled all three outfield positions and had one of the stronger arms in the league.

Our second guest will be Lee Warren of Yahoo Sports. If you’re a regular listener of the Royalman Report, you’ll know that we like any opportunity we can get to talk with Lee as he covers the Omaha Storm Chasers. They’re having a great follow up season in 2012 after winning the Pacific Coast League title in 2011. You can check out past discussions with Lee Warren on the Royalman Report here (from June 26, 2011) and here (August 28, 2011).

Update: The Storm Chasers have promised us the opportunity to talk with one of their players before their game in Sacramento, which  will pre-empt Lee Warren’s appearance. 

Along with that, we’ll talk a look at the Royals of today as they come out of a successful homestand.

We’d love to have you listening, and we plan on a giveaway to kick off the show’s run, so you don’t want to miss that.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Mike Montgomery is heating up. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

I’ve been a bit skeptical of Mike Montgomery ever since his rough 2011 campaign got under way. I knew there were some lingering control (and injury) issues there, but I never thought they’d manifest themselves into the rough outings we saw with Omaha last year. It was especially surprising after he had such a solid Spring Training.

So, I was even more concerned that we might never see Montgomery reach his potential when this season started off with two starts over 7.2 innings, with Monty giving up seven runs, 14 hits, and seven walks while striking out six. We all know Monty is a strikeout guy. That’s one thing he can definitely do. But the walks just piled up and increased the amount of pessimism over his future.

Then things changed.

In his next three starts, Monty threw 20 innings. He gave up 18 hits and seven earned runs. He struck out 16. And you know what? He walked just four batters.

Think about that for a second. He went from walking about as many as he struck out to striking out four times as many as he walked. And the change has lingered over three games, with Monty walking just one in each of his last two starts. Add in that his groundout-to-flyout ratio has been well over one on the season (1.90) and things are starting to look a bit cheerier.

Now, small sample size warnings apply. Monty still gave up a few runs in each of the last two games. I wasn’t there to see what actually happened or how he looked, so that’s a warning as well. Still, last year, Monty didn’t give up fewer than two walks in a game until June 19, when he pitched just three innings and struck out one, giving up nine runs in the process. And in his first five starts of 2011, Monty dished out 15 walks rather than the 11 in his first five this year. Even though the ERA sits at a not-so-pretty 4.57, his FIP is a nice 3.66, which is the lowest he’s had since that ridiculous stint with Wilmington in 2010.* To make matters even more interesting, he’s had a .353 BABIP so far this season, the highest he’s had in non-AFL ball over his career.

*Just to compare, his FIP last season was 4.30.

So, there might be something there. Maybe. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. Part of the problem he may face (and this is absolute conjecture) is just regaining confidence in his pitching. He was solid through AA in 2010, but then faltered. And that may make it difficult to recover. But as he’s succeeding now and pitching well, it’s worth considering that he may find that groove again. Whether that translates to a full season of success is impossible to say, but fun to speculate on.

I guess what it comes down to is that Monty is making a stronger case for a chance at a rotation (or temporary bullpen) spot than he ever has. With pitching in Kansas City consisting of a, shall we say, questionable quality, this may be a good time to try Monty out around midseason, depending on where things sit by then. It all depends on whether he can keep throwing strikes and avoiding giving out walks, but if that continues like it has the last few games, we should be ready to see Monty in Royals blue rather than Chasers blue.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

The Royals have a number of pitching prospects, but how likely are they to pan out? Other teams, like the Rangers, Rays and Braves, see a surplus of major league ready arms, but the Royals are still waiting on the likes of Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer and Danny Duffy to sort it out.

Jeff Herr led a discussion with Alan Jaeger about the methods the Rangers have used and the programs available to developing pitchers. He covered a lot of the long toss philosophy and outlined its importance to a pitcher’s development. Overall it was very interesting. After talking with Alan, we discussed how the Royals fit into the equation.

Then we made a big announcement. Listeners of the podcast get an early leak of the information. In the meantime, before an official announcement, you can stop by this Facebook page and follow this new Twitter account. (And you can also follow Kings of Kauffman in both places as well for the main site information.)

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

Tonight, we’re going to catch up on some of the latest about the Royals and their merciful ending of The Streak. That’s a given.

The focus of tonight’s show, though, is on pitching, specifically on the Royals and their track record of developing pitching. Our guest for this discussion is Alan Jaeger, the founder of Jaeger Sports and whose program has benefited such pitchers as NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and Diamondbacks prospect Trevor Bauer. Jaeger has worked with Mike Montgomery before, as well.

It should be an interesting discussion about pitching and training philosophies. We’re hoping to get an idea of where the Royals stand as far as their approach to taking prospects and turning them into the real deal at the big league level.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

Mike Montgomery may be getting back on track. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

In 2011, Mike Montgomery toiled in Omaha, racking up a 5.32 ERA in 150.2 innings. He walked too many, gave up 15 homers, and by many accounts was nowhere near the same pitcher he’d been through the middle of 2010.

His first two starts of 2012 weren’t very encouraging either, as he only got through 7.2 innings and had an 8.22 ERA entering Thursday night’s game at Round Rock. He had walked four and gave up five runs in 3.1 innings at Albuquerque in his second start after opening the year with 4.1 innings and two earned runs.

So his taking the mound on Thursday had many fans – including myself – hoping for any sign of progress.

In a way, another rough start would have been just as painful as the seven straight losses from the big league team. Montgomery is arguably the most important part of The Process. He’s been touted as a potential ace (though that ceiling is less and less reachable) and at worst a solid #2 starter. Now, he’s got as much boom and bust potential as any other pitching prospect.

But on Thursday, he looked like the guy we expect him to be. He looked like he was in charge. He located his pitches, induced ground balls, and didn’t get hit hard until his last inning. Most significant is that he walked just two batters and struck out seven on 89 pitches. Eleven of the outs he recorded were ground ball outs.

Of course he isn’t out of his funk yet. He still has to keep it going into his next start. If he continues progressing and can string together some strong starts, he may see Kansas City before the All-Star break.

But that’s getting ahead of everything. One start at a time.

In other pitching prospect news:

Montgomery wasn’t the only Royals prospect who threw a good game on Thursday.

In Wilmington, Yordano Ventura followed up Jason Adam‘s fine start for Wilmington with a good showing of his own. In five innings, he struck out nine batters, walking only one. He currently has a 16/7 K/BB ratio.

Noel Arguelles had two rough starts for Northwest Arkansas before tonight, but he threw 5.2 innings, giving up just one run. He walked none, but only struck out one and gave up nine hits. After the solid showing tonight, though, his ERA drops to 6.08 after 13.1 innings. He’s moving in the right direction at least.

You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. 

Johnny Giavotella is starting the year out in Omaha after spending two months in Kansas City last season. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

After a road trip that has to be seen as a good one (today’s loss was rough, but the Royals return to Kansas City 3-3), the Royals are off on Thursday before the home opener on Friday. It seems like a good time to check in with Omaha and look at what’s going on with the defending Pacific Coast League champions.

With a team that boasts many of the key contributors from last year’s roster, Omaha has opened up 6-1, including a 16 inning win against Round Rock on Tuesday.

New contributors have stepped up to fill gaps where other players have been promoted. Lorenzo Cain is the everyday center fielder in Kansas City, but Derrick Robinson has started off hot with 13 hits in 32 at bats so far. The speedy outfielder has been hanging around the Royals system for a few years now and early success in Omaha is encouraging. The speed and defense are apparent, but the question with Robinson is whether or not he can develop a bat to make him a productive player in the lineup. He showed glimpses late in 2010 and at times in 2011, but it hasn’t clicked yet.

Max Ramirez has two homers and 8 RBI. Kevin Kouzmanoff has five doubles and 9 RBI. Both were minor league free agent signees this offseason.

Clint Robinson is picking up where he’d left off in each of the past two seasons. After winning the Texas League Triple Crown in 2010, he hit .326/.399/.533 last year in Triple A. He had 52 homers and 198 RBI in 2010 and 2011 combined. Fortunately for the Royals organization, they have solid depth at the first base position. Unfortunately for Clint Robinson, he’s stuck behind Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler. Still, the performance is there so far.

Some surprising names have been producing on the mound, too. Vin Mazzaro has had two good starts, putting up a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings and has struck out 10 batters. According to Lee Warren (@OmahaBaseball) of Yahoo Sports, Mazzaro’s slider has looked great early on.

Jeremy Jeffress and Louis Coleman have both been strong out of the bullpen and both figure to see time at some point in Kansas City as the Royals take advantage of available option seasons with some of their young bullpen arms. Nathan Adcock had a good first start, as well, a year after being a Rule 5 guy all year in Kansas City.

Two players have been disappointments in the rotation though.

Will Smith had solid control through the minors with 2.2 BB/9 over his career (520.1 IP) but has walked seven batters in 7.1 innings over two starts so far. He made nine starts in Triple A while part of the Angels system before the Royals acquired him as part of the Alberto Callaspo trade but he didn’t struggle like this. He should even it out as he gets more comfortable – it’s only two starts.

Mike Montgomery hasn’t jumped out strong yet, though he’s only had one start but gave up seven hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out three batters. That’s just not going to work if he’s going to progress into a pitcher who’ll see Kansas City before the All-Star break. He only gave up two runs against Round Rock but the threat for more is always present with that many baserunners reaching.

A key player that many are interested in is Johnny Giavotella. Lee Warren shared an interview he did with Gio just before the season started where they discussed his defense and what he’s working on, as well as his time in the big leagues in 2011. Other comments from Omaha manager Mike Jirschele point out that Giavotella is taking extra reps before regular workouts as he tries to get to where the Royals feel comfortable bringing him up and keeping him up at the big league level. Giavotella is hitting .296/.387/.444 in six games in the young season.

Below is the embedded clip of Warren’s interview with Giavotella and other segments with Jirschele. He was kind enough to share the audio with the Royalman Report and is allowing us to pass it on to listeners and readers. You can check out his work on Yahoo here.

What are the Royals Future Plans for Wil Myers? (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the premiere players predicted to lead the second wave of the youth movement is outfielder Wil Myers.  Myers was drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2009 draft, not because there were 90 players available who were more talented, but primarily because of “signability issues.”  He’s a first round talent that Baseball America has ranked as the Royals 3^rd best prospect behind Mike Montgomery and Bubba Starling.  Myers began his minor league career as a catcher, but was moved to the outfield to hasten his development time and to make way for defensive whiz Salvador Perez – very good forward thinking on the Royals part.

Wil Myers experienced nothing but success during his first two seasons of professional ball.  However, in 2011, he struggled at the plate, hitting just .254 in 99 games for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.  You might think that Wil’s knee injury suffered early last season from jumping over a wet sidewalk, or the subsequent stitches and staples, or the resulting infection and ultimately surgery were the issues that derailed his progress.  However, Myers said he was just thinking too much, “I was pressing and overthinking things.  Trying to work on too many things.  I couldn’t get my foot down (for proper timing.) I was getting a little too selective.“

Last Fall, Myers found his touch again at the showcase for young talent, the Arizona Fall League.  Myers tore up opposing future pitching stars to the tune of .360/.481/.674, one of the top performances in the AFL and better than Bryce Harper by every measurement except home runs.

It was reported last November that the Royals were interested in the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, but the deal was nixed because the Braves wanted Wil Myers in return.  There are mixed reviews on Jurrjens future and his persistent knee problems, but he is projected as the Braves opening day pitcher on a deep staff (due to Tim Hudson’s injury) and he certainly could have improved the Royals weak starting rotation.  If this report is true, the fact Dayton Moore didn’t pull the trigger on the trade tells us the Royals have plans for Myers that involve using him as more than just a trade chip.

Assuming Myers picks up anywhere near where he left off in the AFL, he’ll be banging on the Royals door sometime this year.  The question is, what do the Royals do with him when this happens?  Dayton Moore, Ned Yost and company haven’t answered this question yet.  With a trio of skilled outfielders already patrolling the grass at Kauffman, the Royals brass will have some tough decisions to make.

It’s unlikely Wil would be promoted just to sit on the bench as the 4^th outfielder as this could stunt his continued development.  It’s best for him to be a starting outfielder, regardless of whether this occurs in Omaha or Kansas City.  The only potential easy answer would be that Myers (if he performs well) could be called up when a starting outfielder stumbles, which of course we all hope doesn’t happen.  I think we would all prefer that his strong performance in the minors demands a promotion rather than receiving a promotion by default.

While the most likely destination for Wil is in right field, he has played all three outfield positions in the minors.  Although Alex Gordon hasn’t been locked up long term yet, we all believe it’s just a matter of time before this happens, and the consensus opinion says the delay hasn’t been for any lack of desire on the Royals part to get a deal done.  This makes it unlikely that Myers would inherit left field.

Myers could go to center field, but this position isn’t a natural fit for him.  We haven’t seen a large sample size from Lorenzo Cain hitting against major league pitching, but in Spring Training he has demonstrated the probability that he can more than hold his own.  So once again, it’s somewhat unlikely Myers would end up in center field.

Will fan favorite Jeff Francoeur be the odd man out in the Royals future outfield alignment? (US PRESSWIRE)

This leaves Jeff Francoeur, the fun loving, cannon-armed leader of the Royals outfield as a potential casualty of a Wil Myers promotion.  Would the Royals then trade Francoeur to a contender if Myers promotion occurred prior to the deadline?  It’s possible, but Frenchy is signed through 2013 and while his pay rate isn’t outrageous, at $7.5 million in 2013, it isn’t an amount that most teams would be excited to take on.  Francoeur is a team player, but it’s hard to picture him sitting on the bench next to Yuniesky Betancourt.  (Yuni is going to be sitting on the bench, right?  Please tell me Yuni will be sitting on the bench…)

Another possibility is that Myers performs well this year, but not so well that he can displace one of the Royals current outfielders.  (Does that sound familiar Lorenzo Cain? Déjà vu from 2011.)  Then maybe he’ll receive a call up in September and a taste of the big leagues to see what he can do at the major league level.

None of this conjecture really provides us with any answers for 2012, and if the Royals have any answers regarding their plans for Myers, they aren’t revealing them yet.  It’s possible that things could work out so the Royals won’t be forced to make a decision this year.  But next year in 2013, barring a major injury among Gordon, Cain, Francoeur, and Myers, or a major setback in performance from any one of this group, the Royals will have no choice but to let us in on their little secret.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Dayton hasn't had a good week. It's getting to me. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Eight days ago, Salvador Perez was diagnosed with a torn meniscus.

Joakim Soria found ligament damage in his elbow and is likely headed for Tommy John surgery.

In response to the hole at catcher, the Royals traded what some consider a top-20 prospect in Kevin Chapman for a catcher who wasn’t even going to make the Astros and a 30-year-old outfielder who didn’t get any kind of full-time action until last year. And Chapman might not be the only prospect the Royals give up.

It’s a move that has many fans scratching their heads and others in baseball questioning the wisdom of the deal, too.

More AL Exec: “Quintero’s going to get squeezed out, makes 7 figures, and you give up a real prospect for him?”

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) March 22, 2012

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said that the player to be named later would be a key to the Quintero deal. The implications behind that amaze me. Quintero, among the worst players in the game at getting on base, being a piece of the trade is fine. The Royals needed a catcher that wouldn’t be a liability behind the plate until Perez could return. No problem. I’m not even too sore about losing Kevin Chapman, who has real skills but has to harness them to be productive. He’ll probably have a career as a lefty middle relief guy with Matt Thornton upside for a couple of years. It’s not a crime to give him up.

But this player to be named later business is increasingly worrying. Usually, a PTBNL isn’t much. They’re just someone to plug into the lineup somewhere in the minors most of the time. But because recently signed players aren’t eligible to be traded. Recently signed players such as 2011 draft picks. Just the thought of some speculation concerns me.

But the week gets worse still.

The Royals most important pitching prospect, Mike Montgomery, has already been jettisoned back to minor league camp with no further shot to make the team out of spring training and no signs of improvement from last year’s dismal year.

To top it off, Bruce Chen got destroyed against the White Sox today and hasn’t had a decent outing yet. And he’s signed for two seasons. Oh, Danny Duffy got hammered as well.

Not Dayton Moore’s best week.

It’s a bit frustrating, especially considering the optimism entering spring training. Perhaps the optimism even makes it more disappointing to see certain aspects of the team continue to flounder. At least before nobody really thought there was progress in the near future. Royals fans could focus on the koan of “one of these years” while accepting their suffering.

My biggest fear is that there’s a solid chance that the Royals open this season with Johnny Giavotella and Danny Duffy in Omaha. I’ve railed against Luis Mendoza before but he’s performing. The Royals are pretty much stuck with Chen though, unless he’s just so awful that they can’t avoid dumping him (not that they would because of that second year on his contract and all).

Moore signed Yuniesky Betancourt, and while I accept the premise that if his name was Jeff Betancourt or Yuniesky Smith and had the exact same attributes, I’d be less offended, it’s still Yuniesky Betancourt, and everybody knows who he is as a player. And he might end up being the opening day second baseman. Or it might be Chris Getz, who has changed his batting stance and is hitting this spring. My issue is that players rarely change who they are after a certain point and Getz is past that point. Maybe he’s figured something out, but odds are he hasn’t. Giavotella won’t improve defensively beyond what experience in the big leagues can give him. It’s clear who he’ll be with the glove. That makes it all the more important that he works out how to hit major league pitching because that’s where his value lies.

But Giavotella, with sporadic playing time, hasn’t hit that well. He drove in a run today against the Angels with a single. He’s still hitting just .220, so he’s not doing himself any favors. If he hits for the next two weeks of spring, he’s a cinch to open up in Los Angeles on April 6, but if he’s only made slight progress, I wouldn’t put it past the Royals to keep Getz and Betancourt platooning at second. Giavotella can go back to crushing Triple A pitching and staying stagnant.

March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy (23) throws against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

The same goes with Duffy. Though now that Soria is out, the Royals may be able to keep all six of the potential five starters (be sending one of Felipe Paulino or Mendoza to the bullpen), if that’s not an option, Duffy, with options, will go back to Omaha. I still don’t see Mendoza keeping this up into the season, but to this point, he’s managed to keep building on last year’s numbers and if it’s between he or Duffy, Mendoza’s winning.

That’s not to say that Duffy’s been as bad as the 7.56 ERA he sports now. He’s had two bad innings out of 8.1 pitched this spring, he’s striking batters out and hasn’t had bad control. Today’s second inning is a great example of how numbers can sometimes deceive when not viewed in the proper context.

Duffy opened up the second inning by getting Vernon Wells to pop out for the first out. Kendrys Morales came up for his first at bat of spring and didn’t make solid contact on a pitch, but it was placed well enough to get into right field for a single. Bobby Abreu got to two strikes then fouled a pitch off towards the left field foul line. Alex Gordon went over and had plenty of time but lost it in the sun. It fell foul, but prolonged the at bat. Abreu doubled. After a strikeout by Alberto Callaspo for the second out, Chris Iannetta doubled in both Morales and Abreu, then scored himself after an Erick Aybar single and Howie Kendrick triple.

If Gordon catches the foul ball, though, Callaspo’s strikeout ends the inning and Duffy doesn’t give up a run. It wasn’t ruled an error – plays in the sun rarely are, especially on foul balls – but if it were, reconstructing the inning would compel the official scorer to deem all runs unearned. Duffy had another unearned run in the first after a passed ball allowed Kendrick to advance from second to third. He scored on a ground out to short that would have kept him on second.

No, those circumstances don’t excuse Duffy from giving up the runs. He still gave up the hits after Callaspo’s strike out (though he also had a two strike pitch to Iannetta called a ball that looked like a strike as well and would have avoided all the trouble he ran into on the next pitch and beyond).

Despite that, and despite his being the most talented pitcher the Royals have in the rotation mix, it’s probably going to chase him to the minors where he has nothing else to learn.

I guess right now I’m having a crisis of confidence in Dayton Moore to make the decisions necessary to put developing, talented players in a position to continue to develop and exhibit their talent. His wonky moves aren’t helping. Nevermind the redundancy that is Jason Bourgeois (who is faster than Mitch Maier but not as fast as Jarrod Dyson, and who hits better than Dyson but not Maier). While I also liked the Jonathan Broxton signing, it’s an odd use of $4 million when the Royals have an overflowing bullpen as it is.

Can anyone talk me off the ledge?

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Nate Adcock was the only player who saw big league action in 2011 to get cut from big league camp. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

It should come as a surprise to nobody that quite a few players will be leaving the Royals big league camp. As opening day draws nearer, the Royals will focus on getting more playing time to those players they expect to be on the major league roster and there just won’t be enough innings to go around.

Minor league spring games started on Thursday as well and those rosters need to be filled.

Nathan Adcock and Ryan Verdugo were optioned to Triple A while Noel Arguelles was optioned to Double A. All three are on the 40 man roster, hence the option year usage.

Adcock had four strikeouts in 4.1 scoreless innings, while Arguelles held his own in four innings of his own. Verdugo threw one inning and gave up a run on four hits.

Jake Odorizzi, Will Smith, Chris Dwyer and Mike Montgomery – among the key pitching prospects in the Royals minor leagues – will all shift to minor league camp, as will lefty Brandon Sisk. Odorizzi gave up two runs in four innings in Surprise in big league camp. Dwyer gave up only one hit in three innings and struck out three (though walked three as well) while Smith made two scoreless appearances, walking none in four innings.

Montgomery is another story. He threw two innings in his first appearance, walking one and striking out one. It wasn’t a great performance but it wasn’t bad. His second appearance, though, was described as “dreadful“. He’s gone from having an outside shot at a spot in the rotation to being shuttled to the minor league side of things. Reports suggest that he has a lot of problems in his timing and isn’t commanding his pitches.

Even with the injury to Salvador Perez, catcher Julio Rodriguez will see more time in minor league games rather than playing behind Brayan Pena, Max Ramirez and Cody Clark. Paulo Orlando, who has been out after hernia surgery, didn’t make an appearance and will try to get into the action on the backfields.

Wil Myers will also leave the big league side, after getting five singles in 18 at bats. He struck out five times, including two in Wednesday night’s loss against Seattle. He held his own in the field, but after an injury-slowed season in Northwest Arkansas, he’ll likely spend most of his time in Omaha. The Royals will keep David Lough, Mitch Maier and Jarrod Dyson around to spell Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur.

More cuts will come as the Royals whittle down to a 40 man and opening day roster.

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

Jason Parks was kind enough to join the Royalman Report for discussion about the team’s performance through the first week of spring training games, including his impressions of  Bruce Chen, Bubba Starling and Mike Montgomery (among others). He’s not a fan of Chen’s and said that Bubba Starling might not have great odds to make the big leagues. How bad are those odds? Well, Jason explains.

You can follow Jason on Twitter at @ProfessorParks and read his work on Baseball Prospectus. If you’re interested in his first appearance on the podcast, that episode is archived for your listening enjoyment.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler, 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and Sam Sapenaro of the K Crew and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

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Who will be the Royals starting second baseman on opening day? (Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals 2012 season is going to be like a good book or movie.  Lots of intersecting plotlines, intriguing drama, memorable heroes, wild action scenes, and despicable bad guys.  The major difference between this year and seasons past is that the story of the Royals in 2012 has the potential for a happy ending.  No other Royals season for the past umpteen years can say that.

Many of the story lines will be decided in the next several days, but others will hold our attention for months – and that’s another thing that makes this season different from most others.  If the story plays out the way we expect, we’ll still be watching and listening with rapt attention until the last game against the Tigers on October 3.

Here’s an enticing potential storyline for us to begin with.  What if (now just humor me for a moment, this could happen), what if the Royals are within 3 games of the Tigers when the final series with them begins on October 1?  Does it make this storyline even more fascinating if you know these games will be played in Kauffman stadium?  You couldn’t plan a better outcome for 2012, could you?  I bet just the thought of it has your juices flowing already.  I think it’s a very optimistic thought, and few if any Royals fans I know are expecting the team to be in contention down the stretch, but we’re all hoping for it aren’t we?  And I think all of us would say that it COULD happen, which makes this storyline one that will likely keep our attention well into the season.

And if you’re wondering why I’m using the Tigers as the team I’m suggesting will lead the AL Central this year, well… Verlander, Fielder, Cabrera – that’s why.

Who is going to play second base for the Royals this year?  The smart money is on Johnny Giavotella who finished the year at second last season, but it could be Chris Getz or (knock on wood), Yuniesky Betancourt.  Giavotella has the potential to be clearly the best hitter of this group, but his defense is suspect and he may still be recovering from surgery to correct a labral tear in his hip that hindered his ability to move side to side.  Alex Gordon underwent similar surgery in 2009 and so far, I’d say his defensive capabilities have not only recovered, but have contributed to raising his status to one of the top left fielders in the league.  (Who would you rather have in left field than Alex Gordon, MLB’s 24^th ranked player in 2011 according to ESPN’s player ranker?  No one?  That’s what I thought.)

Chris Getz has changed his “swing path” and his stride to the ball this Spring, which so far is showing promising results, but he’s still an underdog to usurp the position from Johnny.  One other frightening prospect is the hopefully very slight possibility that because both Getz and Giavotella have options remaining the Royals have the flexibility to send either Johnny or Chris to Omaha (or both – Yikes!) and let so-called utility player Yuniesky Betancourt play second base.  (I say “so-called” because he’s never really played all the positions he’s being asked to backup.  And why would we want him to anyway?)   Without going into great detail in this post regarding how I feel about this possibility, you can read what I think here.  You can also read how Kevin Scobee feels about it here.  Suffice it to say, it alarms both of us.

Will the Royals still be in the race at the All Star break?  I just finished writing (or maybe dreaming) in the 3^rd paragraph that the Royals could potentially be within 3 games of the Tigers at the end of the season, so obviously I think the Royals will be in the race at the All Star break.  There are many positive and negative aspects of a team comprised of mostly young, enthusiastic, but somewhat inexperienced players.  The energy that comes off this team is infectious and I love watching them chest bump each other and feed off of their teammates’ play.  But teams like this can be emotional, and streaky, and an 8 game losing streak could jeopardize everything they’re trying to accomplish.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer share a little love (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

Will one of the Royals beat Steve Balboni’s 1985 single season 36 home run record?  (Balboni also led the league in strikeouts that year with 166.  Ay caramba!)  There are few records in baseball that are begging to be broken more than this one.  I know Kauffman stadium is a pitcher’s park, but come on guys, somebody needs to break this record, please!  Mike Moustakas has the pedigree to break the record.  He hit 52 homes runs during his high school career (a California state record) and he led all minor league players with 36 home runs in 2010 while playing in just 118 games.  Back in late January, one of the guys on the MLB Networks’ Inside Pitch program predicted that Eric Hosmer would eventually win the triple crown.  I believe both Moose and Hoz have the potential to break the record, and very possibly both of them will break the record…  someday, but probably not in 2012.

Will Alex Gordon repeat his All Star worthy performance from 2011?  The respected ZiPS projection system has Gordon pegged to backslide from his 2011 performance and end 2012 with a .278/.358/.464 line (he hit .303/.376/.502 in 2011) and 20 home runs.  Those stats are decent, particularly for a guy expected to turn in a strong defensive performance, but probably not All Star worthy.  On the other hand, I think ZiPS may rely too heavily on past performance when creating their calculations and not enough on the intangibles or the fact that someone “figured it out.”  If you look up “figured it out” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Alex Gordon.

Few people have come into the league with higher expectations or potential and in my opinion it has been more of a surprise that Gordon hasn’t been performing at an All Star level prior to 2011 than it should be a surprise if he performs at an All Star level in 2012.  In addition, I believe his chances of making the squad this year are increased because many people took notice last year to how loudly RoyalNation squawked when Gordon didn’t make the team and this should raise his visibility a little in 2012.  Put me down as a believer and firmly in the camp of disagreeing with ZiPS, at least where Gordon is concerned.  I think he’ll be hovering around .290/.295 by the All Star break with 12-14 dingers, which should be good enough for consideration.

Will the Royals place more than one player on the All Star team?  We all know Gordon was robbed last year, but in all likelihood, if he had been selected to the All Star team Aaron Crow probably wouldn’t have gone.  One of the drawbacks of having a young team is that few people know about you and it’s hard for your players to get votes in Baltimore or Phoenix if the fans don’t recognize their names.  And if the fans don’t vote for them, no All Star manager is going to select more than one Royal when he can nominate players from his own team.  And Ron Washington will probably have plenty of deserving Rangers to pick from.

Until the Royals make the playoffs and put themselves on a national stage, I can’t imagine one of them getting the most votes, so I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.  But, there is one possible wild card in the selection process this year – the game will be played in Kansas City at Kauffman stadium.  If Ron Washington wants to make a good impression with the home crowd, he could possibly pick an extra player from the Royals.  The only way to ensure this happens is if a couple of the Royals step up and earn it, forcing his hand to the point that he would have no alternative but to select a couple of the boys in blue.

Will one of the Royals promising minor league pitchers join the rotation?  There are several young pitchers in the minor leagues that could earn the right to be considered for the rotation in 2012.  Many people believe Mike Montgomery is the most likely candidate for this honor, although consensus opinion is that unless he’s “lights out” in Spring Training, he’ll begin the season at AAA.  Going back to ZiPS, they predict that if Montgomery plays for the Royals in 2012, his line will be almost identical to Danny Duffy’s, beginning with a projected ERA of 4.92.  Between you and me, I’d be very happy if Mike could achieve that in his first major league season, although based on his performance in Omaha last year, I’d be mildly shocked if he did that well.

Not including the pitchers who’ve played at least a few games already in KC, there are several additional guys that could make the club sometime in 2012, including John Lamb (his 2011 Tommy John surgery makes his 2012 debut unlikely, although not impossible), Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer, and a few others.  I’m very excited for these guys to all earn their way to KC, but in my opinion, none of them deserve a promotion yet and with the probable exception of Mike Montgomery, I don’t think we’ll see any of them in the starting rotation in Kansas City in 2012.

Will Lorenzo Cain be able to fill Melky Cabrera’s shoes?  If you consider that a player’s value is more than just his production at the plate, I say yes, Lorenzo Cain will be very close to Melky’s equal in 2012.  (Mike Engel said that Melky won’t even be Melky’s equal in 2012, so there’s that.)  Cain plays lights out defense, and while he hasn’t spent enough time at the Major League level to prove himself yet, he’s at least shown that he can hold his own at the plate.  ZiPS says Cain will bat .258 this year, but I think that’s a pessimistic prediction.  I may be surprised, but if the Royals don’t break .500 this year, I’m confident it won’t be because of Lorenzo Cain.

Will the Royals break .500 this year?  As we all know, the last time the Royals broke .500 was in 2003.  Most of the oddsmakers have the Royals pegged at 79-81 wins in 2012, and these are the people who make their living off of predictions like this.  We all know that a clutch double or a blown call can make the difference between at least a couple of games each year, so yes, it’s very, very possible the Royals could break .500 this year.  I’m saying 83 wins this year, and a playoff run in 2013, which I believe is realistic.

Will Sports Illustrated eat their words?  A few weeks ago, I was infuriated by a Sports Illustrated article entitled “Hope Doesn’t Spring Eternal for These Teams”, which listed the Royals, Orioles, A’s, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs as the teams that never have any chance of competing.  The writer of this story obviously knows nothing about baseball history and the periods of time where the major leagues were dominated by the Royals, Orioles, and A’s, and the unexpected championships of the Mets.  And there are more Cub fans who dream of bringing home the trophy each year than there are grains of sand on the beach.

Let’s all answer this together – How many World Series have the Red Sox won in the past 90+ years?  Two.  How many championships have the Rangers won in their entire existence?  None.  How many times have the gigantic market Angels hung the flag in the past 51 years?  One time, the same as the Royals.  If you want to get all caught up in “what have you done for me lately?” then let’s throw all the teams into the pot and consider them equally, and not just the teams that it has become politically correct to bash.

But, beyond these historical slights, the writer obviously hasn’t kept up with what’s been happening in Kansas City in 2012.  Not only are Royals fans fired up beyond any year in recent memory, but the Royals have a very realistic chance to compete, and if a handful of breaks go their way I could see them in contention right up to the wire.  I think it’s highly probable that Sports Illustrated will have no choice but to pay more attention to Kansas City before this season is over.

Spring Training has begun and it feels like we’re watching a preview of coming attractions.  It’s almost time for the book to be opened, the movie to begin, and the curtain to be drawn on the 2012 Royals season.  It’s been years since Kansas City had so many baseball storylines to watch, and longer since the storylines could potentially hold our interest for months to come.  I for one can’t wait.  Get your popcorn ready!

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Kevin Kouzmanoff had reason to smile on Monday afternoon after a walkoff double. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Remember how it seemed like the Royals were winning games in walkoff fashion twice a week last season? I guess old habits die hard.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ripped a pinch hit double to center field with two outs, scoring Mike Moustakas and winning run Wil Myers in the bottom of the ninth in the Royals second spring training game.

Players mobbed Kouzmanoff as the Royals finished off a comeback from an early 5-0 and 6-1 deficit.

Bruce Chen had the start with two innings of work planned, but gave up hits to 7 of the 12 batters he faced. Just one of the hits he gave up all day went for extra bases, but in the first inning a throwing error by Johnny Giavotella allowed Elvis Andrus to score from first on a single by Adrian Beltre. Ian Kinsler scored on the play as well as Beltre moved up to second, then scored after two more hits. Chen opened the second inning by getting a ground out but a Kinsler single followed by an Andrus triple got him in trouble. After Josh Hamilton made the second out of the inning, Ned Yost pulled Chen in favor of right-handed Louis Coleman to face Beltre, who singled, driving in Andrus.

After Jeff Francoeur and Lorenzo Cain hit back to back doubles to put the Royals on the board, the Rangers got the run back after two singles and a double off Mike Montgomery.

Montgomery wasn’t sharp in his first outing of spring – he threw just 18 strikes in 32 pitches – but he was able to induce a ground ball double play in his first inning and retired the Rangers in order in his second and last inning of work. Chris Dwyer also pitched and handled Texas. He did walk a batter, but nobody got a hit and he struck Luis Hernandez out looking on a slow curve.

The Royals scored twice in the fifth after an Alcides Escobar triple and Alex Gordon homer, then again in the sixth after Derrick Robinson punched a single through the infield with the bases loaded. Then, after three straight walks (and a 5-2 forceout/tagout) in the ninth, Kouzmanoff delivered his walk off shot.

Eric Hosmer had two singles and Wil Myers scored twice. Blake Wood, who’d shut down the Rangers with two ground outs and a strike out on six pitches, got the win.

The Royals have split squad action tomorrow, with games against the Padres and Indians both kicking off at 2:05 CST. Luke Hochevar and Will Smith (respectively) will start and are scheduled for two innings in their games. Jake Odorizzi and Noel Arguelles are also scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

3/5/12 Scorecard:

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

A random meeting in the Kauffman Stadium Team Store led Troy “Royalman” Olsen to meet Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo. After a brief conversation, J.J. agreed to join us on the Royalman Report and this is the result.

Picollo discussed the things the Royals are looking at in Surprise during spring training, who he expects to bounce back, and who the Royals hope to see big breakouts from. He also discussed the impact of the new CBA on the Royals draft strategies going into 2012. The team’s thoughts behind the Yuniesky Betancourt signing and reflections on negotiations with Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson were also addressed.

We also checked in with Joel Goldberg about what the players are doing down in Arizona. He gave us his insight into the internal competitions between players and keeping spring training from getting boring (especially when it’s all drills early on). He also talked about how some of the pitchers looked and who might sneak into the rotation.

This week’s Fake Ned Minute is a little blue, so we’ll call it not safe for work, but he redeemed himself by producing a fantastic bit with Mike McCartney that takes off of a famous scene from a famous baseball movie. Definitely look for that after the Goldberg segment. Fake Ned also paid off a lost bet.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler, 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and Sam Sapenaro of the K Crew and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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I was joined by Jeff Parker of Royally Speaking and Dave Lesky of Pine Tar Press. We talked a lot about the starting rotation, the bullpen and expectations for the season.

If you missed the show live, you can find it here on the 610 Sports site.

Expect to keep seeing this quite a bit in 2012. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m going to repeat this once more (and for the last time), so if you’ve seen it before, skip ahead. Dayton Moore and the Royals have been busy this offseason. Not busy looking for starting pitchers and not busy looking for new bats. They’ve been busy finding the pieces to finish up their killer bullpen.

But really, there weren’t a lot of moves to be made. The Royals bullpen only increased by two members, as Jonathan Broxton became the new, well, whatever role he’ll supposedly fill and Jose Mijares became lefty insurance. There were lots of rumors about using the Broxton addition to move Joakim Soria and leave Greg Holland to closing, but that’s all in the past. Right now, we’re barely different than last year’s team. Let’s just get a quick recap of where that team stood in several categories with regards to the rest of the American League:

Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th (4.70)
Wins in Relief: 3rd (26)
Losses in Relief: 13th (26)
Save Percentage: 10th (63%)
Holds: 10th (58)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 2nd (25%)
Games Pitched on Zero Days Rest: 2nd lowest (56)
Average Outs Recorded Per Outing: 1st (3.6)

If you have any questions about those rankings, throw them out in the comments. All I know is this paints a very muddled picture. Was the bullpen good or bad? Was it good or bad as a result of how rough the rotation was? Can we really blame the bullpen when they had quite a bit of work over the course of the year due to that rotation?

What it seems like to me is that they did a respectable job with the hand they were dealt. Manager Ned Yost didn’t overwork them too badly, though the consecutive days stat could be biased a bit toward one or two pitchers. I had no idea that they had done so well with inherited runners, but the fact that they allowed that many runs, compiled that many losses, and blew that many saves makes me reconsider my acclaim at their success. Of course, as the season wore on, young arms got tired and handing the ball to the bullpen became less of a sure thing. Nonetheless, how can we think about this bullpen going into 2012? Are they truly killers?

Well, I pulled out three projection systems for 10 pitchers that could (or should) be a part of the 2012 bullpen. I’ll use ZiPS, Bill James, and RotoChamp to get three different perspectives. And I’ll try to show them in a way that’s not totally confusing, using their 2010 and 2011 lines alongside their projections to get an idea of what we’re seeing.

Let’s start with Joakim Soria because, well, who else do you start with when you think of the Royals’ bullpen?

For the most part, projections show a return to form from 2011 and more of what we expect from Soria. And I see no reason to debate that, as he’s shown us he can stick in there when healthy, so let’s leave it at that. Soria is a stable player for the bullpen.

We’ll turn to Jonathan Broxton next.

Broxton’s going to be an interesting one to watch. After being nails for the Dodgers earlier in his career, he started to falter the last couple, including a bruised elbow that sidelined him for most of 2011. Between that and the move to the AL, it’s hard to get a read on how he’ll perform. All signs point to him being healthy for 2012 and ready to pitch for the Royals, however. And all three projection systems show that in their analysis. While they’re more bullish on Broxton than I am (or than I expected them to be), I think we can expect solid numbers from Broxton. And if he can pitch consistently throughout the season, he could be a crucial piece for close games in late innings.

Greg Holland

Everyone expects a little regression from Holland’s ridiculously good 2011 campaign. His BABIP last season was .250, which is plenty low and offsets the 3.77 he found himself with in 2010. Settling at a midpoint seems like a good idea, and that’s what the projections have done. I expect Holland to sit closer to the RotoChamp projection than the others, however, even though their hits/9 is a little low. Holland will still be a crucial piece of the bullpen, but maybe not quite as amazing as he was last season. The battle between him, Coleman, and Broxton for the “set-up role” will be one that could go all season if Holland doesn’t end up replacing Soria as the closer should Soria get injured.*

*Knock on wood. Every piece of wood. Even Blake Wood.

Blake Wood

I’ll be honest and say that I have no idea what to expect from Wood. He was extremely frustrating to see pitch at times, but surprisingly productive at other times. And I guess that just means we should expect something similar to last year. Every projection system shows some amount of regression, but I’d expect Wood to sit around an ERA of 4 and to be neither great nor horrible, providing solid relief when you least expect it and poor relief when you need outs. This all leans on him making the roster, of course, but he should be a likely candidate unless he spoils it for himself in Spring Training.

Louis Coleman

Coleman was the guy that always made me think he was right there the whole time, just about ready to break free, but restrained by his high home run numbers. He still had an amazing season considering he missed almost a month of the season and will be another important piece of the bullpen in 2012. I would guess he can take a step forward on those home runs numbers while staying roughly constant in every other way. Bill James’ projection seems to be the closest for me, showing exactly that. With a step forward in the home run area for Coleman, the back four righties of the bullpen (Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman) should be a formidable set for opposing lineups to face as they try to rally.

Aaron Crow

For whatever reason, Bill James didn’t project Crow, but it doesn’t matter. I see Crow regressing a bit, sticking closer to his late-season numbers than his initial ones, but he can still be an important part of the bullpen. We have some projection issues here, as RotoChamp saw Crow as a starter, but the numbers are similar nonetheless. I think the ZiPS projection is a bit bearish, but Crow should maintain his strikeouts and potentially his walks as well, staying roughly in the same point as he was last year. Like Coleman, if Crow can cut his home run numbers a bit, he’ll make it into that upper tier of relievers. But he’ll still be a useful arm nonetheless. And if they’re thinking about trying him as a starter, he could become a middle relief sort of guy, as Wood might be the only other useful righty candidate for such a role. The prognosis? Still useful, but maybe less of the early Crow and more of the later Crow.

Kelvin Herrera

I’m really intrigued by Herrera’s chances, as he could either go the Jeremy Jeffress route or he could stick as another strong righty reliever. If you’re counting at home, that would mean the Royals would have seven average-to-great righty relievers in their bullpen, so I don’t know if we can count on them all making it. But Herrera has shown strong numbers in the minors, flashing a 1.60 ERA in 2011 across high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a September call-up to Kansas City. He usually strikes out about 9/9 IP, and while that should continue this year, I expect closer to 8/9 IP. Like Wood, Herrera’s case probably hinges on his Spring Training performance, but his existence alone exhibits why the Royals have a good reason to rely on their deep, deep bullpen.

And on to the lefties.

Tim Collins

Collins will be another interesting one, as he seemed to be fatigued by the time the season ended. He pitched in 68 games, eight more than Soria and 11 more than Crow, which likely contributed to that fatigue. And Yost seemed to be content with (over)using Collins no matter his fatigue. Collins has some legitimate competition in Jose Mijares this Spring Training, with Everett Teaford also available, so the team won’t have to rely on him quite as much. Still, more competition is better than less, and Collins will at least have to perform or be sent down, hopefully keeping the bullpen stocked with a capable left-handed reliever.

Jose Mijares

Mijares is a guy that I vouched for when the Royals signed him. It’s definitely good to try many options, and, as I said above, it gives a bit of insurance and competition for Collins. Mijares was a great reliever for the Twins a few years back, but his weight and other issues led to less use and less productivity as the seasons wore on until Minnesota dropped him this offseason. It’s a good flyer to take on a guy that could be a huge boost should he return to form. And if he doesn’t do that, no harm, no foul. Collins and Teaford, plus Mike Montgomery or other lefty prospects, could fill that role.

Everett Teaford

Teaford’s another guy that got some partial projections as a starter, but he should only exist as a spot starter and mostly as a lefty reliever option. He’ll also have to fight his way onto the roster, and he’s probably less likely to make the roster than Collins and maybe Mijares. I think Teaford was a bit lucky last season, but he’s got the ability to put in about what Bill James’ projection shows when the Royals need him. It’s just another sign of the depth this season.

What we can really take from this, as I’ve said before, is that the Royals have considerably more depth and insurance in their bullpen for 2012 than they did going into 2011. There are more players than can ably contribute when needed, and that should make it easier to keep the bullpen performing all year. As some prospects move forward, there should only be more options, allowing for extreme selectivity going forward. Even though Broxton’s contract is only a year, this all points to the team being prepared for a great bullpen for many, many years as they approach the start of their window of competition.

So, while the bullpen was a great point of strength in 2011, it should be as strong or stronger in 2012 given the number of options and the players’ performance in previous seasons. The projection systems are understandably mixed, but even with some of their lower projections, the bullpen will be solid for this season. Considering how they ranked in some categories last season, there’s room for improvement. And there should be improvement.

Of course, the wild card in all of this is new pitching coach Dave Eiland. He may change the pitching strategies of some younger players, and we’ll have to keep track of any changes in performance or style from 2011 to 2012. Just another thing to keep in mind.

Has Moore built a “killer bullpen” for 2012? Well, yes and no. He didn’t add much to build that bullpen. But it also didn’t need a ton of additions to become a killer. Broxton and Mijares should only add depth in two areas where competition and number of options will only help the team to stay in it throughout 2012. And with a rotation that’s questionable and difficult to project, having a strong bullpen with many potential members can only be a good thing.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

Despite Tommy John surgery in 2011, Kevin Goldstein named John Lamb as one of his top 101 prospects in baseball. Photo: James Lamb

As you may know, Kevin Goldstein is one of the bigger names in online baseball commentary. In the wee small hours of the morning, he released his Top 101 overall prospects in baseball, listing five players from the Royals system:

• 19. Wil Myers
• 27. Bubba Starling
• 47. Jake Odorizzi
• 82. John Lamb
• 83. Cheslor Cuthbert

Conspicuously absent is Mike Montgomery.

When we talked to Goldstein on the Royalman Report in November, he’d listed Montgomery as a three star prospect and sixth among Royals prospects. At the time, it was a simple matter that Montgomery hadn’t pitched very well for his lowered ranking, but Goldstein conceded that the upside was still there, but the likelihood of Montgomery’s reaching that ceiling had lessened. (And it’s notable that Eric Hosmer wasn’t on Goldstein’s top 101 going into 2010, so it’s never a perfect list.)

This afternoon, Goldstein was on 610 Sports with Nick Wright and pointed out that Montgomery hasn’t been a great pitcher since the middle of 2010. The lefty had run over minor league batters to that point, but arm soreness put him on the disabled list twice. Then he struggled in 2011.

Even after a rough 2011 in Double A, Goldstein is big on Wil Myers, and despite Tommy John surgery, he likes John Lamb too. On 610, he also mentioned that Chris Dwyer is a prospect who could still be good.

Other mentions:

• Goldstein is a Lorenzo Cain fan and thinks his combination of speed, defense and decent offensive production could result in a season that could come close to what Melky Cabrera accomplished overall in 2011.
• Eric Hosmer could be even better this year than we expect. Goldstein mentioned he expects multiple All-Star appearances and MVP opportunities. He said .300 and 25+ homers is an annual possibility.
• For Goldstein, Mike Moustakas is the most interesting player coming into 2012. Last year, Moose made adjustments to hit better but the power wasn’t there. This year, the goal is to continue to hit with those adjustments in mind while adding the power back into his approach.

Follow Goldstein on Twitter – he has great information, and if you’re not 100% baseball-minded, he tosses in some pop culture commentary as well.

You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.

Lorenzo Cain had some success with the Brewers in 2010. Let's hope he provides similar results with the Royals. Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Like so many of you, I’m bouncing off the walls with anticipation for the upcoming season. I keep checking the date, as if pitchers and catchers reporting will be enough to quench my thirst for baseball. It won’t be. But it’s the methadone for baseball addicts, and I need something to curb this craving. I feel like Tyrone Biggums (for those of you who watched Chappelle’s Show).

Partially, I’m excited about the Royals’ chance at success this season, which, as many have noted, is a little higher than usual. But I’m also excited to see the many uncertain storylines play out.

With that in mind, I give you the top five storylines I will be watching closely during Spring Training.*

*There are many, many more than five, but I have to set some limits or we will be here all day. Also, these are not in any particular order.

1)   Lorenzo Cain in center field

Fellow KoK writer Alan Barrington and I had a short back and forth the other day on Twitter in which we disagreed with the criticism by some that Cain is overrated. The crux of our argument is that one must first be rated to be overrated, and no one outside of Kansas City, and maybe Milwaukee, knows who Cain is. If you asked someone from New York who will start in center field for the Royals they would probably answer, What position does Eric Hosmer play again? Go Yanks! I gotta go to the free clinic real quick somethin’s burnin again.

This is part of the reason I’m interested in seeing Cain. He isn’t such a known quantity. He has potential; he hit .306/.348/.415 in 158 PA with the Brewers in 2010 and really mashed in AAA last year (.312/.380/.497). At the plate, Cain needs to be a patient hitter with line drive power and good speed. He strikes out quite a bit, but it’s not debilitating.

It’s a very safe bet that Cain will be much better in the field than Melky Cabrera. Cain has plenty of speed to cover the big outfield at Kauffman and is still making strides as a center fielder. Some say, he has Gold Glove potential as a fielder, and that means he doesn’t have to hit .330 to be effective.

I’ll be interested to see if he really has the type of defensive impact people say he can. If he has that and finds a way to be a patient, semi-productive hitter, the Royals have a great commodity in center field. If he doesn’t, they may be scrambling to find a way to stop the bleeding in center. Did the Giants call no takesies-backsies?

2)   Are you sure you’re Mike Montgomery?

Last year in Spring Training, Montgomery came out firing bee-bees. People started wondering if he would break camp with the team, and rumors swirled that he took it hard when he didn’t. Of course, that decision looked justified after a very tough year in AAA, during which Montgomery’s command abandoned him like good taste abandoned VH1’s programing director.

Still, those who watched him go through last season speculate that he may be a better pitcher for it. He’s got dynamite stuff, and is still young at 22.

Many expect to see Montgomery in the majors this season, though after his fantastic spring last year, people were saying the same thing. If his command is back, and I mean for good, he’ll get his call fairly early in the year. And then, who knows? He’s the type of pitcher who could be called up and instantly become the team’s most effective starter. He and Luke Hochevar are the keys to this pitching staff.

Johnny Giavotella has to find a way to play an average second base if he wants to have a positive impact for KC. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

3)   Johnny Giavotella at second base

I really like Giavotella, or maybe I just dislike Chris Getz so much it makes me like Giavotalla that much more. Either way, I really want Giavotella to break out this year, and I have a feeling he will. Bill James is thinking along the same lines. He predicts a solid year from Giavotella, .295/.342/.419, at the plate. That should be right around where he is all the time.

Giavotella has to be solid with the bat because he struggles with the glove. So, while I’ll be paying attention to his progress at the plate, I’m really interested to see his progress in the field. Most speculate that he will never be a decent fielder because his lack of athleticism hurts his range. While that may be, his lack of athleticism shouldn’t prevent him from making every play within his range. In Spring Training, Giavotella needs to be worked with to make every routine play, always. I don’t mind if he doesn’t have Alcides Escobar’s range, but he needs to make all the plays he can get to.

During these exhibitions, I’ll be looking to see if Giavotella can be what we expect at the plate and take a step forward with the glove. If he can, the Royals don’t even need to think the name Getz.

4)   Who’s afraid of Felipe Paulino?

Honestly, I think the answer is … the Royals. Why? Because Paulino is a wild card, one of those guys who should be pretty good but really isn’t, but people keep giving him chances because he should be good, but he really isn’t, and then he teases people with a stretch that makes them think he’s pretty good, but he really isn’t. My point is, he really isn’t that good.

Or is he?

I can’t tell, and anyone who thinks they can is delusional. Sure, Paulino had a decent stretch last season with the Royals. And yet, he finished the year with an unspectacular 4.46 ERA. He had good strikeout numbers, but his walk rate was pretty high and hitters had a .341 BABIP on him (That’s not luck either. That’s opposing hitters hitting flat fastballs really hard).

I’ll watch Paulino to see when/if he falls. Until he arrived in Kansas City, he never established himself as a consistent performer. Why should we expect him to be one here? And yet, people keep talking about how Paulino should be a lock for the rotation and how he’s so great. When will this illusion end? Will it end? I have to think it’s going to end at some point, and if Paulino struggles in Spring Training and Aaron Crow or Montgomery tear it up, will the team be willing to shift Paulino to a new role? Should they? I have questions but few answers.

5)   Wil Myers against semi-major league pitching

We know Myers can rake at the minor league level, but I want a taste of what he might look like in the majors. Granted, he has more learning to do and will probably start the year in AA, barring a dynamite spring, which might earn him a ticket to Omaha. I’ve only seen Myers play once, and Montgomery struck him out in the Royals Futures Game.

It’s not too hard to imagine Myers hitting well in Spring Training. I know the Royals faithful would be tickled three shades of blue to see him mash in Surprise, and he’s certainly swinging a hot bat going into it. He hit .360/.481/.674 in the Arizona Fall League after a somewhat disappointing season last year.

With Myers in the outfield next to Cain and Alex Gordon, the final piece of the position-player puzzle is in place. This spring, we get to glimpse what we believe will be the Royals lineup that pushes them back into relevance.

Storylines that just missed the list: “Hochevar’s Two-faced ways” and “A Starling is born.”

Now, I need to go find all my baseball movies and watch them before the season starts. First up, The Sandlot.

You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.

Or follow me on Twitter @MarcusMeade

Danny Duffy impressed last year as a non-roster invitee and was soon in the big leagues. Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals released their list of spring training non-roster invitees last week, and as usual the list is filled equally with promising young prospects and replacement level bargains. Many won’t make an impact on the 2012 Royals, but nonetheless it is an opportunity to impress the front office brass. A strong showing as a non-roster invitee can put a top prospect on the fast track.

Non-roster invitees are intriguing because they are all upside. Even established major leaguers who find themselves signed as non-roster invitees are promised nothing but an opportunity. There is nothing to lose, but everything to gain.

For instance, the Royals brought in 23 non-roster invitees in 2011, and only Tim Collins and Louis Coleman made the opening day roster. But they weren’t the only players who made an impression.

Fellow non-roster invitees Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and Luis Mendoza eventually played games for the Royals last year. Several other prospects, including Mike Montgomery, impressed as well.

So, you must be thinking, which non-roster invitees have the best chance to make an impact in 2012? How thoughtful of you to ask. I’ve put together my list, ranking each invitee from most to least likely to have an MLB impact this year. I’ll also give percentage odds for each player, in order to show which guys have earned the greatest share of my confidence in their ability to help this year’s Kansas City Royals.

What could be more scintillating than that?

Mike Montgomery – 85%

I’ve already given my thoughts on Montgomery here, so I’ll try to keep this short and sweet. Not only do I think the Royals need Montgomery to produce for the big league club this year, but I also think he almost surely will impress. I expect Montgomery to follow Danny Duffy’s 2011 trajectory and earn a major-league call-up sometime in May. Montgomery simply doesn’t need another full season in Omaha, and he possesses superior raw stuff to Duffy. It’s also important to remember that Duffy’s leapfrog of Montgomery last season was a notable shock. Montgomery remains the better prospect with the better stuff, and I think he’ll have a campaign that’s slightly better than Duffy’s 2011. And this is coming from a guy who thought Duffy positively impressed last season. Montgomery is all set to be a gem.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 60%

This is where the meaning of the word ‘impact’ becomes skewed a bit. I have no delusions of grandeur regarding Kouzmanoff. Although once a promising prospect, Kouz is essentially a replacement level player at this point (career .300 OBP). At the same time I think he has a fighter’s chance to make the 25 man roster (as a backup to Mike Moustakas at third base), and he very well may be the only person on this list who is able to make that claim.

In order to have an impact, a player actually has to suit up for the team. Whether through an inspired spring performance, injury, or inconsistency, I’m 60% confident that Kouzmanoff will play in 40 or more games for the Royals this season. If that becomes the case, then I am 95% confident that I will inevitably unleash a drunken, expletive-laden tirade against Kouzmanoff this summer when he is mired in a 0-21 spell and sporting a .285 OBP.

Wil Myers – 39%

Ok, hear me out here. Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and Lorenzo Cain will be the starting outfield for the opening day Royals, barring injury. The next best available options appear to be Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough.  Each of those guys has their merits, but none of them are Wil Myers.

Here’s a question for you: why can’t Myers be this year’s version of Eric Hosmer? Myers is 21 years old, or to put it a different way, the same age Hosmer was at the beginning of last season. Myers also played last season at Northwest Arkansas, the same level Hosmer reached in 2010 before being placed on the fast track.

Wil Myers played in the Futures game last year, and could potentially play for the Royals this year. Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Like Hosmer in 2010, Myers dominated in the subsequent Arizona Fall League. Sure, his numbers don’t stack up with Hosmer’s Double-A figures. But Myers had some extenuating circumstances. He suffered a nasty knee injury after a fluky spill at the beginning of the season, and struggled to regain his form afterwards. But like Hosmer, the physical tools are still there: the quick bat, the plate discipline, and the rocket arm have not gone anywhere. Plus, Myers has already played twice as many games at Double-A as Hosmer did. The Royals moved Myers from catcher so that he could progress quickly through the system, and with a strong spring, I think they’ll give him the same chance Hosmer did to shoot through the system like a meteor. Furthermore, after last season, Myers has something to prove. I expect to see him with the Royals by the end of the season, even if it’s just for a cup of coffee.

Max Ramirez – 29%

Here’s a guy who I have had trouble deciding on. He should probably be placed further down this list, since he is ostensibly behind Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena, and Manny Pina on the depth chart. But he is a career .867 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. And since he’s played 646 games in the minors over eight seasons, I’d venture to say that his offensive numbers aren’t a mirage built on small sample size. That .867 OPS is 100 points better than Pena’s minor league total, and 200 points over what Pina has produced thus far.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, I would not be overly shocked if the Royals cut bait with Pena and Ramirez emerges as Perez’ backup this season. Keep in mind that Perez is young and fresh, and may not need more than 30 games off behind the dish this season. Wouldn’t it be nice to finally have some pop and patience at the catcher position? Even if Ramirez is utilized primarily as a pinch hitter, I see some value there. Oh, and while writing this piece, I learned that Ramirez’ given first name is Maximiliano. So there’s also that to inspire confidence.

Irving Falu – 26%

I know what the most cynical and sarcastic of fans will say here: “whenever you can get a 28 year old career minor leaguer with a .696 career OPS into the lineup you’ve got to seize the opportunity.” I know that’s what you’re thinking because it was exactly what I first thought upon seeing Falu’s name among the non-roster invitees. But then I realized that the primary backup infielders will probably be some combination of Kouzmanoff, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Chris Getz, and I suddenly began reconsidering Falu’s candidacy in earnest. And there are some things to like about Falu.

For instance, did you know that he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts during his minor league career? Or that he has logged games at all three outfield spots, second base, shortstop, and third base? Or that 2011 was his best statistical season? I’m not saying he’s a lock to contribute or anything, but I think assuming he’s still with the organization, that he’ll be the first middle infielder recalled if there is an injury. If that’s not a ringing endorsement then I don’t know what is.

Chris Dwyer – 25%

Hey, I’m not saying I’m banking on it, but I would not be shocked to see Dwyer make a couple of starts for the Royals in 2012. After pitching four games for Northwest Arkansas in 2010, Dwyer remained in Double-A for the entirety of 2011. Although he struggled during the first half, Dwyer turned it on in the second half and actually out-produced highly touted prospect Jake Odorizzi while both were toiling for Northwest Arkansas. Dwyer also has more strikeouts than walks in his career, so the stuff is there. If the front office believes that the second half Dwyer is the real version, then he could be a fast riser this season.

Zach Miner – 20%

Sure he doesn’t strike out anybody, and he is still working his way back from a major injury in 2010. I get that. But looking at Miner with squinted eyes, I also see that Miner has a 25-20 career record in the major leagues to accompany his 4.24 cumulative ERA. Once you see the other pitchers on this list, and their career major league experience, you’ll see why Miner is so high up this list.

Will Smith – 16%

Smith would probably be above Dwyer on this list if my intuition hadn’t led me to believe Dwyer will have a breakout season. Smith, though, did plenty well for himself at Northwest Arkansas in 2011. Smith put up a 13-9 record and a 3.85 ERA in a full season of Double-A, and was probably the best pitcher on NWA’s staff. Also going for Smith is the fact that he’s already pitched (albeit poorly) in Triple-A while in the Angels system. There’s no reason that Smith should go back to Northwest Arkansas next year, which means that he will be among the pitchers in Omaha with the best chance to get a late season or injury-induced call-up. I’d say that’s makes him about a 16% chance to make an impact on the big league club.

Jake Odorizzi – 7%

Odorizzi is clearly a year away, and that is not a bad thing. He got roughed up a little bit in his introduction to Double-A last year after torching High-A Wilmington. Odorizzi won’t turn 22 until March, so another season spent between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha could still be constructive for one of the organization’s top young prospects. There is still an outside chance that

Tony Abreu – 6%

I’m just not seeing it with Abreu. Give me Falu every day of the week. Abreu can’t hit and doesn’t walk. He owns a career .279 OBP. He should be purely minor league filler. Major league service time alone places him above the other names on this list.

Greg Golson – 5%

The best thing Golson has going for him is his versatility. He’s played all three outfield positions in the minors and possesses a enough speed to make him dangerous on the base paths. Unfortunately, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Golson has been struck out a whopping 941 times in his minor league career, against just 207 walks. Myers, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough are simply better players than Golson and will get any call-up before him.

Cody Clark, Paulo Orlando, Tommy Hottovy, Francisley Bueno Julio Rodriguez – 0.00%

None of these guys has a chance to crack the big league roster in 2012. Frankly, their inclusion among the non-roster invitees seems a bit dubious. I’m not even going to sugarcoat it: when I saw Francisley Bueno’s name mentioned among the camp invites, I had no idea who he was. None at all. What is he doing at major league camp?

But I guess that’s the nature of non-roster invitees. There are no expectations. If Dayton Moore wants to bring in a guy whose name translates to “good”, then by all means he should be empowered to do so. And if Bueno somehow turns into Ricky Vaughn, then I will happily eat crow.

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Can you picture Zack Greinke in a Royals uniform again? (Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE)

Every family has a weird cousin that doesn’t fit in with the other relatives.  No one wants to sit next to him at the kids’ table during Thanksgiving dinner or get stuck alone with him after everyone else has gone home.  We make fun of him behind his back, but as soon as he’s gone, we sorta miss him.

Zack Greinke was the weird cousin, a square-peg-in-a-round-hole, the guy that never quite fit in for the Royals after they drafted him with the 6^th overall pick of the 2002 draft.  Zack was a pitcher, the best pitcher in the majors (said Sports Illustrated in May 2009), but his career was unsatisfying to him because he longed to hit and play shortstop, and due to his love/hate relationship with the game of baseball.

Many would say Zack has led a charmed life.  He was the Gatorade National High School Baseball Player of the Year, he married his high school sweetheart / Miss Daytona Beach beauty queen / Dallas Cowboy cheerleader, he won a Cy Young award, and he’s a multi-millionaire with the prospect of life changing riches in his future when he reaches free agency at the end of the coming season.  But if you think all this makes Greinke happy, then you don’t know Zack.

I won’t rehash the details here again, but it’s well known that Zack has suffered from severe bouts of anxiety and depression.  This illness has interfered with his life so dramatically that he once considered giving up baseball and mowing lawns for a living.  We’re talking about an individual so socially withdrawn that when he was in school he hated to sit with other kids at lunchtime because he didn’t want to feel forced to fit in, who has grown up to work in a profession that requires him to stand on a pitcher’s mound in front of 35,000 screaming fans.  Imagine the angst you would suffer if you were asked to speak in front of a business group, in your underwear and forgot what you planned to say, multiplied by 100 – that’s the fear and dread Greinke experiences every time he delivers a pitch.  Zack doesn’t play baseball because he wants to, he does it because the expectations of his God-given talent demand it.

Yogi Berra once said that 90% of the game is half mental, and this statement has never been more true than when referring to Zack Greinke.  Among fans I’ve spoken with he’s been called an enigma, a clubhouse cancer, a prima donna whose talent doesn’t make up for his poor attitude, and much worse.  He pinch hits while wearing the wrong uniform.  He tells other pitchers they have a phony attitude.  He argued with his coach over which side of the rubber to pitch from.  Even Greinke apologists must admit that Zack is a strange guy.  There are thousands of fans who believe Zack’s gifts could take their team to the next level, and an equal number who are certain his addition to the clubhouse would destroy their team’s chemistry.

There is also strong disagreement about Zack’s value on the field.  On the one hand, ESPN’s fantasy baseball rankings has Zack listed as the 14^th best starting pitcher in the major leagues (above players such as Gio Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Mat Latos, Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson, C. J. Wilson, Chris Carpenter, and many more coveted names), and on the other hand there is a vocal group of naysayers who observe that Zack is only as good as he wants to be and no one really knows how to motivate him to reach his full potential.

Zack will become a free agent at the end of the 2012 season and regardless of his baggage, there will be a bidding war for his services.  Our sister site “Reviewing the Brew” has already contemplated what it would cost to sign Greinke after next season.   They estimate about $18-20 million per year (I expect possibly for 5 years), unless the market changes significantly in the next few months.

Greinke recently dumped his agent (second time in the past couple years) and Brewer fans are hopeful they can use this opportunity to approach Zack directly and ask for a hometown discount at a more club-friendly $16 million per year.  The Brewers were one step away from the World Series last year and they know Zack would like to continue playing for a winner.  A couple problems with this plan for Milwaukee fans – the Brewers aren’t his home team and their future doesn’t look bright.

The Brewers could still potentially reach the playoffs next year in a weakened division that saw the Cardinals lose Albert Pujols this offseason, but they won’t be the same team without Prince Fielder.  In addition, the suspension of reigning MVP Ryan Braun for performance enhancing drugs doesn’t leave fans with lots of feel good optimism for the future of the franchise.  The Brewers traded away much of their high potential minor league talent to the Royals to obtain Greinke in a big push to make the Series last season.  Now that several of their key pieces are either gone or in limbo, and their future mortgaged for a present that didn’t materialize, I don’t see Greinke returning to Milwaukee at the end of his current contract.

Brewer fans were all a twitter this week when it was reported by the MLB Brew Beat blog (and then repeated by several more) that Greinke was asked about the possibility of an extension with Milwaukee.  Greinke’s polite response was, “I’ll talk to them about it.”  If I was a Brew Crew fan, I wouldn’t hang my hat on that comment and assume Zack was going to return in 2013.

Greinke has played all or part of eight major league seasons.  Seven of those seasons have been with the Royals, the team that drafted him, the team that was patient with him both before and after he was diagnosed, the team he won a Cy Young with, the team whose fans showed up in force just to cheer for him on nights when he was pitching.  At a time when the Royals desperately needed him and their pitching ranks were in shambles (can you say Runelvys Hernandez?), the Royals allowed Greinke to take time away from baseball, to put his life back together.  If anyone has a question about this, let me answer it – the Royals are Zack’s home town team.

You may remember Jim Eisenreich who played with the Twins, Royals, Phillies, Marlins, and Dodgers in the 80’s and 90’s.  Jim suffered from Tourette Syndrome (TS) and was forced to take about three years away from baseball to receive treatment for his disease.  TS is misunderstood by many, and often misinterpreted as an attitude problem which can result in the victim becoming isolated and outcast.  You may also recall it was the Royals who welcomed Eisenreich back into the major league family following his treatment and I clearly remember fans embracing him and rooting for him to succeed.  Jim was so accepted by the community that he made Kansas City his permanent home.  I see similarities between his story and Zack’s.

Zack’s gorgeous and outspoken wife Emily enjoyed her time in Kansas City, and the Greinke’s still own a home in town.  They both grew up in a suburb of Orlando (Apoka = Overland Park), which aside from the palm trees and gigantic amusement parks, and the fact Orlando doesn’t have a professional baseball team, it isn’t really all that different from Kansas City.  There is little doubt the couple feel at home in KC.

Based on what we know about Zack and his condition, it seems reasonable to assume that his family and advisors would encourage him to stay away from the bright lights of the major markets when determining where he’ll play next.  It doesn’t fit with Zack’s personality to be the center of attention, and he’d be constantly hounded in New York, Boston, LA, or even Chicago and Atlanta.

My guess is that Zack has enjoyed playing in the National League which gives him an opportunity to hit and run the bases, so I could see him signing with a “smaller market” team on the senior circuit like St. Louis or the Miami Marlins.  Hopefully, his .143 batting average last season helped to put his dream of being the next Miguel Cabrera to bed, forcing him to focus on the one thing he does better than almost anyone else – pitch.  If so, then an American League team should be on equal footing with a National League team in any bidding war.

You’ve probably figured out by now that I’d like to see Zack wearing a Royals uniform again in 2013.  I realize that many people disagree with my perspective, including some of my fellow writers here at Kings of Kauffman and many of the people who comment below our stories who think it would be a mistake to pursue Zack next year.

If you believe it might be farfetched for the underfunded Royals to afford Greinke, or that he wouldn’t want to return, it might interest you to know that the hosts of the MLB Networks’ Hot Stove Live don’t think it’s a stretch.  On their January 20, 2012 program, they boldly predicted Greinke would return to KC in 2013.  Their reasoning was that Zack and the Glass family have a strong relationship, he and his wife enjoy Kansas City, and the Royals will be poised to field a competitive team in 2013, which would make them attractive to Zack.

I’d like to re-sign Greinke, partially because I like his story.  I almost always root for the guy who overcomes adversity, in whatever form, to succeed.  I’ve personally known people who suffer from the same afflictions as Zack and I discovered that you can’t take this ailment lightly.  It’s real, it impacts lives, and it causes outsiders to question the victim’s judgment and sanity.  But when treated properly and supported by patient friends, family, and coworkers, this sickness can be overcome.

I also know the Royals are two front-line starting pitchers away from having the talent to compete with the best teams in the American League.  With a stable of young and strong pitching arms like Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, John Lamb, Noel Arguelles, Aaron Crow, and others, I’m relatively confident the Royals can develop one of these starters in-house.  My best guess is that the other will need to come from a trade or free agency.  Who better to fill this gap than with the one that got away, our crazy cousin Zack.

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Pitchers: Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, Jake Odorizzi, Will Smith, Francisely Bueno, Tommy Hottovy, Zach Miner

Catchers: Cody Clark, Max Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez

Outfielders:  Wil Myers, Greg Golson, Paulo Orlando

Infielders: Tony Abreu, Irving Falu and Kevin Kouzmanoff

I don’t think I’m alone in saying I want to see what Montgomery and Myers can do in MLB camp but realistically both in my opinion won’t be in Kansas City until after the all-star break. From a practical standpoint I think the team needs the versatile Falu to have a good camp to help the bench. Lastly let’s be realistic, Kouzmanoff was signed to be in KC so this is his tryout to be the team’s backup to Moose at third.

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-Since it’s hot stove season, one of the offseason radio broadcasts comes from 810 where Joel Goldberg and Jeff Montgomery have been talking Royals baseball. Tonight’s guests were Kevin Goldstein, who discussed Mike Montgomery, Cheslor Cuthbert and others in the Royals system. One choice quote pertained to John Lamb, who Goldstein said could be a “left-handed version of Jeremy Hellickson“. Jeff Francoeur was also on the show and discussed clubhouse comradery and why he won’t join Twitter.

-Jonah Keri wrote a piece on Grantland about the Royals, profiling a handful of previous comeback stories and the different methods and decisions that led to eventual playoff appearances. In light of other teams’ past success, the Royals seem to be closer to the Reds “wait for the kids” plan.

-Finally, Sam Mellinger of the Star weighed in on the Alex Gordon extension speculation, making the clever suggestion that the Royals front-load his contract to provide more roster flexibility for the potential for extensions for other prospects in a few years. He’s also got some additional points on his blog about the Alex Gordon topic.

Before you go, also check out Alan Barrington’s article on the factors that will go into the Royals becoming a playoff team again as well as Paul Thompson’s ranking of the players on the Royals 40 man roster from earlier today.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com.

With that notion in mind, now seems as good a time as any to break down the 40 man roster and rank them in descending order. I’ll rank the roster based on my expectations for the 2012 season; it is my position that 2011 is old news and therefore will serve as a mere afterthought during this breakdown.

Enjoy.

Royals 40 Man Roster Rankings:

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There’s been a lot of focus on starting pitching improvements for the Royals going into 2012, but the team is seemingly staying pat for the offseason. I haven’t seen any rumors involving any free agent or trade targets lately, so we may well be where the front office wants to start the season. Of course, given that the team tends to make moves without much warning, an acquisition could happen at any point. Still, I feel like we’re at our stopping point.

That being said, I wanted to take a look at how this rotation stacks up to the one we started 2011 with and take some glances at where we could find ourselves following the season.

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A dominating performance in the Royals Futures Game on April 2nd further enhanced that outlook. Montgomery threw four innings walking just one and allowing two balls out of the infield total. He struck Wil Myers out on three straight fastballs, each increasing in velocity.  He looked every bit the top 20 prospect that Baseball America had touted him as.

A strong April where Montgomery had a 2.67 ERA in 27 innings for Omaha gave hope that he’d be up before the All-Star break. Then he started to struggle.

And the struggles continued. Montgomery walked 4.1 batters per nine innings in 150.2 innings for the Storm Chasers. There were reports that his delivery was all over the place and his command suffered. He walked batters and gave up hits. It’s a blessing that he didn’t have an ERA higher than the 5.32 he’d reached at the end of the year. The guy who looked like an ace in April was putting up rough numbers every other month.

So now what?

Clipped from: kingsofkauffman.com (share this clip)

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From my perch here in Kansas City I want to gaze north to Omaha, where the Storm Chasers will once again be jam-packed with top flight prospects this season. Even with a horde of elite players making their way to the big leagues last season, Omaha will be looking to improve upon their stellar 2011 campaign (79-63 record, first place).

Before I begin the predictions, allow me a couple of ground rules. First, I will only include two set-up men and a closer for the bullpen. The rest is just too much of a crapshoot, and may include players not currently in the system. I’m also going to cheat a little bit and include six rotation candidates. One of the six will likely earn the role of the long reliever, and I’m not going to try to decipher that race. Also, only the starters on offense will be included. I’m not diving into the bench. There are too many options, too many variables, and, well, ultimately this is my list so I get to do what I want.

Hypothetically, I’d like to come back to this post as the season begins and judge these predictions. Surely, some (if not all) of my projected starters will not pan out, and it’s always fun to look back under the lenses hindsight and deride yourself for going all in on fool’s gold. There is also the (ever so slight) possibility that I nail the predictions and get the opportunity to write a self-congratulatory column about it while being showered in the confetti I bought for the occasion. Either way is a win in my book.
Without further ado…

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He first appeared in the majors 2008, when he posted a 0.87 ERA in 10 appearances for the Minnesota Twins. The next season was his best, as Mijares recorded a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings, while striking out 55. But that was the high water mark. Mjiares threw only 32.2 (albeit solid) innings in 201o, sporting a 3.31 ERA, and then saw his strikeout rate dip dramatically in 2011 at the same time that his ERA soared to 4.59.

All this to say that Mijares isn’t, and won’t be, a miracle worker. But there are reasons to believe that his addition will prove valuable.

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I have a couple of other wish lists to share from a couple of our writers here:

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