Mike Sweeney knows a thing or two about being in the best shape of his life. Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

You hear it every year.

Some aging or oft-injured player shows up at Spring Training and proudly declares that they are in the best shape of their life. They say they’ve dropped some weight, or stopped eating fast food, maybe hired a chef or personal trainer.

It’s an annual rite of passage that (aging and oft-injured) former Royal Mike Sweeney perfected in the spring of 2007 with his revelation that yoga* had “paid big dividends” for him in the off-season. At the time it was a ray of hope for Royals fans who had seen Sweeney labor for years with an unforgiving back. But as is often the case, it was a mirage.

*Another classic nugget from that yoga article: Buddy Bell’s spring training assertion that Sweeney would be plugged in as the every day clean-up hitter behind, wait for it, 2006 franchise home run leader Mark Teahen. Sweeney ultimately played less than half the season due to injury and hit only seven home runs. Teahen played the whole season and also hit only seven home runs. Makes you appreciate Eric Hosmer, no?

The “best shape of my life” routine has become such a popular spring training cliche that it has (naturally) inspired its own internet meme. Maybe it’s just something about the hopeful nature of spring training. Maybe it’s the thin Arizona air. Regardless, something about the spring inspires a certain delusional hyperbole that affects both players and fans alike.

I’m not immune. I buy into the hype*. After all, how could yoga not provide increased flexibility for Mike Sweeney’s woeful back?

*Maybe I’m just a hapless writer with an exercise regimen that even Bartolo Colon considers lax, but if I could only get in touch with Manny Ramirez‘s fertility doctor, jet over to Germany for a controversial blood spinning procedure, and show up for the first day of spring training, I just might be in the best shape of my life too.

So when the Kansas City Star’s Bob Dutton reported that current Royals Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler had shown up to camp in terrific shape, I immediately began daydreaming excitedly about the possibilities. Here’s the choice quote from manager Ned Yost, who may or may not have giggled gleefully immediately after delivering it.

“There are a ton of position players here, too. Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas — I’m extremely proud of both of those guys. They are in the best shape they’ve been in their career. Billy looks great, and I hardly recognized Moose, he looks so good.”

First, let’s consider Butler. He has been the most consistent player on the team for three consecutive seasons, yet somehow seems to leave fans wanting more. It’s early in the spring, but gushing quotes like “best shape” and  “Billy looks great” bode well for turning 2012 into a career year. In a recent interview with Robert Ford at 610 Sports in Kansas City, Butler sounded bound and determined to make this season his best yet. In listening to the interview, I couldn’t help but think that Butler sounded mature for a 25-year old. It’s exactly what we’ve all wanted to see from him.

Butler needed to come into camp ready to go, especially after he spent parts of the off-season as the subject of internet trade speculation. Although nothing ultimately happened, and the front office never seemed especially close to making a move, it’s worth wondering whether the trade rumors had any impact on Butler’s decision to come into spring training sporting a more svelte physique.  Regardless of motivation, I’m just happy to see Butler looking trim at the start of camp. My overactive imagination can already envision Butler legging out triples and providing a serviceable backup at first base.

As for Moustakas, he was already a guy who was expected to make big strides in 2012 after a roller-coaster 2011. But when he showed up for camp 10-15 pounds lighter after a season spent focusing on conditioning and lateral movement at third base, the Royals brass must have been impressed. Nothing is better for a young team than for its young team leaders to seize the role as the hardest workers, and Moustakas seems to understand that. It’s another example of a player who is mature beyond his years. Moustakas is not interested in beginning this season with another prolonged cold spell, and he’s willing to whatever is necessary to avoid such a pitfall.

All of this determination, all of this potential, all of this pride and confidence, it’s an amazing feeling for Royals fans. After so many years of spending these hopeful February and March days talking ourselves into an inferior product, there is finally reason for fledgling optimism in Royal Nation. It’s a unique place for Royals fans of my ilk, who have never even been alive when a Royals team made the playoffs.

Most years, I try to convince myself that “this is the year” for the Royals to turn the corner. The logic is always flawed, and the basis for optimism wobbly. A case for the Royals to compete was always a hollow argument.

But this year is different. When I have delivered my annual argument for why the Royals can compete, it feels measured. Reasonable. Real. Today the Kansas City Royals are in the best shape I’ve seen them in my lifetime.

It feels good to say that with a straight face.

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Johnny Damon, symbol of Royals fan frustration. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Some were decrying these one-year deals, saying sarcastically that it was a real commitment to the future by signing guys to a contract for one year. Despite pleas from myself and others, the message wasn’t sinking in. Then, someone mentioned that these players would soon be Yankees if Kansas City doesn’t lock them up.

That got me to thinking – I couldn’t come up with an example off the top of my head of a big trade involving the Royals and Yankees. Some discussion on Twitter unearthed that the only two significant players to sign with New York immediately after leaving the Royals as free agents were Danny Tartabull (1992) and Chili Davis (1998). From there, I used Baseball-Reference’s handy team-to-team trade history tool to look at trades involving the Royals and Yankees. There have been seven. Total. The two biggest names involved were Lou Piniella (1973) and Fran Healy (1976). Of those two, Piniella had a higher career WAR, but Healy had more WAR as a Royal. Still, at the time of the trade, Healy’s 4.3 WAR (cumulative as a Royal) makes him the biggest producer the Royals have ever traded to the Yankees (and the player the Royals received was Larry Gura, who ended up in the Royals Hall of Fame.)

Well I couldn’t just stop at the Yankees, so below, you’ll find a table listing the most productive players the Royals have ever traded to each team in the big leagues. It’s pretty simple – the “Royals WAR” is the total WAR produced while that player was a Kansas City Royal. In some cases, I added a note of who the Royals received or other interesting trivia attached to the move. It’s an interesting – and sometimes painful – look at Royals trades of the past. I’ve also included additional trades of interest when necessary or in the case of a tie in Royals WAR.

*This is the WAR for their whole career, before, during and after being a Royal.

We can only imagine what could have been. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

What’s depressing to see is the parade of great players that the Royals have dealt off without getting much in return. In a couple of cases, you can see that the majority of a player’s WAR was accumulated as a Royal (like Mark Gubicza or Kevin Appier) which suggests that in those cases, the Royals got about all they could out of them, but along with that come the David Cones and Carlos Beltrans who are particularly painful. Cone was traded twice by the Royals and Kansas City received Ed Hearn and Chris Stynes to show for it.

Beltran is even worse because he was traded after many great seasons with the Royals, continued to improve and stands as the best player the Royals have ever traded. At the same time, after the trades of Jermaine Dye and Johnny Damon, he fits into the narrative of the small-market Royals and their inability to retain the talent they develop.

That’s where I think the bitterness and cynicism comes from when discussing the team with more casual, occasional followers of the team. Bret Saberhagen is another big name who continued to produce value in his post-Royals career as well as Damon (of course) and some like Brian McRae and Tom Burgmeier went on to productive careers as roleplayers.

The Royals rarely won a trade when trading their higher value players. When receiving “established” players, they either turned around and traded them away (Jefferies) or were getting them for one or two years (Gerald Perry, Dean Palmer) and a lot of the prospects received didn’t pan out beyond one summer of greatness (Mark Teahen, Angel Berroa).

So far Dayton Moore hasn’t had the worst track record in trades, but he’s not Cedric Tallis either. Tallis acquired John Mayberry, Cookie Rojas, Freddie Patek, Hal McRae and Amos Otis in trades for hardly anything. All five are in the Royals Hall of Fame.

Your move, Dayton.

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The Royals hope to celebrate often in 2012. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Royals fans are infatuated with the 2012 incarnation of their favorite team, and rightfully so. Simply looking at the roster full of top young prospects makes me want to re-enact a patented Royals game-winning mosh pit from last year*.

*I love that walk-0ff celebration photo. The first thing I noticed about this photo to the right was Joakim Soria soaring approximately eight feet off the ground like a frog jumping lily pads. But then I noticed something even better: Eric Hosmer in the middle of the pile, being swarmed like a superhero that requires ten mere mortals to subdue.

But we already know what Royals Nation thinks about this team. Their (my) eager anticipation is palpable. We see the Process taking shaped and fully expect the Royals spend a healthy portion of the summer in contention.

However, there are better sources for unbiased prognostication than a group of unrepentant homers. In fact, there is even a “best” source. Vegas.

The sports books of Las Vegas have the most to lose from their prognostications, which means that they’ve undoubtedly hired the best in the world to handle the job. The Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd published some 2012 lines on the Ball Star blog this week, and correctly pointed out that the Royals are still considered long-shots to win in 2012.

But my curiosity immediately led me to wonder what those odds meant, especially in terms of wins and losses. So I went to sportsbook.com and decided to break down the odds on the three Royals-related future propositions.

1. Royals 30/1 odds to win the World Series

The Royals are given 30 to 1 odds to win the World Series in 2012, which even in my estimation seems a bit optimistic. They are lumped with five other teams (Marlins, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, and Brewers) with the 13th best odds. Those preceding five teams combined to post a 401-407 record last season, good for a .496 winning percentage or (roughly) an average finish of 80-82.

Of course a lot has changed since way back in 2011. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Nationals acquired Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson (and Rick Ankiel! and Mark Teahen!), The Marlins picked up Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, the Dodgers are all set to remove the suffocating albatross that was Frank McCourt from their around necks, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood.

If anything, overall, it looks like the group has gotten a bit better. The Royals sit with relatively impressive company.

The 30/1 odds also place the Royals somewhere between the 13th and 18th best teams in baseball. In 2011, the 13th best team was the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished with an 82-79 record. The 18th best teams were the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds, who both finished with 79-83 records.

Sure I’m only looking at one sports book, but I’ll gladly cling to the narrative that Vegas expects the Royals to be around a .500 team next season. In fact I intend to take that expectation as gospel.

2. Royals 15/1 to Win the American League Pennant

All five teams that the Royals share World Series odds with are in the National League. But they will really be judged by their contemporaries in the American League.

As you can see, the Royals are considered 15 to 1 odds to win the AL. That figure puts the Royals comfortably between the Tampa Bay Rays (15/2) and the Toronto Blue Jays (20/1) among American League hopefuls, and positions them as considerable favorites over fellow AL Central  rivals Cleveland (30/1), Chicago (40/1), and Minnesota (40/1).

The odds also indicate that the Royals are expected to be the 7th best team in the American League this year. What exactly does that mean? It means that they are looking a .500 record right in the eyes. In 2011, the 7th best team in the American League was the Blue Jays, whose overall record was 81-81.

Their status as the prognosticated runner-up in the AL Central is noteworthy as well. Cleveland, in particular, is a surprise. The Indians finished with an 80-82 record and picked up Ubaldo Jimenez in a deadline deal last season. They also acquired Derek Lowe and the immortal Roberto Hernandez Heredia, who both looks and pitches just like Fausto Carmona, only three years older.

Nevertheless, it’s good to see that the affable members of Royals Nation aren’t only ones predicting the Royals will outplay every team in the division who doesn’t start Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

3. Eric Hosmer 50/1 to Lead the Majors in Home Runs

While we’re looking at the lines, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight Hosmer’s perceived chances of leading the major leagues in home runs. He is considered to be the 25th most likely candidate to accomplish the feat, as he’s tied with the Angels’ Mark Trumbo with his 50 to 1 odds.

Last season the 25th best home run hitter in the major leagues cracked 29 jacks. His name was David Ortiz, and he ended 2011 with a .953 OPS. His name was also Joey Votto, who put up a robust .947 OPS to go with his 29 homers. And also Nelson Cruz, who got his 29 long balls in only 475 at bats, and went on to hit another eight home runs in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, his name was also Josh Willingham and Mark Trumbo. Either way, I like the idea of Eric Hosmer hitting 29 home runs in 2012.

Sure, it would be fair to argue that this whole endeavor has been wildly unscientific. Based on the fact that I only looked at one source, you would be right. But there are still a couple weeks to go until spring training begins and this seems like relatively hopeful news. If nothing else just consider it more vindication for that gut feeling you probably already have. So let’s just kick back and take a moment to think about Eric Hosmer, with the help of a few breaks and some stiff breezes to right center field, making a certifiable September run at Steve Balboni’s epic franchise home run record while playing on a .500 team.

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37 – Sean O’Sullivan- Yes it’s his number but how will Sully be used this year? He spent time in Omaha last year plus came out of the bullpen at times in Kansas City. Many fans are still waiting on him to do something productive for the organization since he was acquired.

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With our powers combined, we have created an offensive lineup of the AL Central’s finest – with one exception.  We can’t come to a conclusion at third base.

That’s where you come in, so at the bottom of this post, you’ll have an opportunity to vote to help us out.

Originally, Wally Fish, lead writer at Puckett’s Pond and myself voted for Danny Valencia of the Twins.  Steve Kubitza of Deep Left Field and Zac Snyder (a contributor at Motor City Bengals and lead writer at SideLion Report, FanSided’s Detroit Lions blog) voted for Brandon Inge.  John Parent the lead at MCB, filled in for the Southside Showdown contingent (who are breaking in new staff)  and voted for Kansas City’s Wilson Betemit.
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I don’t mean for this to be depressing so follow along (after the jump) and see where I go with all of this. (more…)

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There’s no question in my mind, in 2011, certainly a [hard] slotting system and a worldwide draft are things we will be very aggressive in talking about.

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