The Royals were busy trimming the roster and the latest Kansas City Baseball Vault discussed any surprises or disappointments in the cuts as well as what it means for the roster and any position battles going on. Along with that, we talked about the demotion of Luke Hochevar to the bullpen and its impact on the fifth starter race.

Eric Hosmer came up and inspired a discussion about concern, worry, and panic. His early spring numbers were strong, but his World Baseball Classic performance was not. He’s still the biggest question mark for the 2013 season.

Also, look for a friendly wager should Donnie Joseph make the opening day roster. While both Michael and Troy like his potential, Troy likes it a bit more. Don’t be a surprised to see a Kelvin Herrera vs. Donnie Joseph board bet…

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) walks off the field after being relieved during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

For some, the surprise is not the fact that Hochevar was no longer a candidate for the starting rotation, but that he would instead be taking a role in the bullpen for the Royals.During spring training, Hochevar was carrying around a 1-0 record with a 6.75 ERA. The rest of his statline is certainly anything but spectacular: six earned runs against, including surrending two home runs and giving up six walks to round out the former Opening Day starter’s spring numbers.His time in Kansas City has not been filled with the stellar seasons which fans have to come to expect from salary-eater. Hochevar’s career numbers show a 38-59 record and an ERA north of five (5.39).

Royals’ manager Ned Yost said he hasn’t determined what role Hochevar will fill, whether it is early inning-mop up duty or a late-inning hold role.

While in the starting rotation, Hochevar had tendencies to work himself into jams, via ineffective control or mistakes up in the hitter’s zone. Specifically, the former Tennessee star had a habit of serving up painful home runs to some of the American League’s top bombers. To his name, Hochevar has surrendered 95 home runs while in big league service.

If Hochevar is to make the Opening Day roster, he will be due $4.56 million, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

With each pitcher having made an appearance at this point, seems like a decent time to start tracking the fight for the fifth rotation spot between Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Luis Mendoza.

For whatever reason, it seems like Hochevar has a leg up in this race. Management keeps telling us how he’s got the right stuff (Click the link? You’re welcome), that he will put it all together, and so on. Chen is the guy who isn’t great, but is adept at pitching with what he’s got. Not the most talented of three, but when he’s on, he’s pretty good. Plus, he’s a lefty, which KC doesn’t currently have in the rotation. Smart money says one of these two will wind up with the job, so that’s where we’ll start.

Fittingly, Hochevar and Chen piggybacked off each other against the Milwaukee Brewers in their first action of 2013. Luke started, followed by Francisley Bueno, and then Chen. Luke lasted 1.2 innings, not quite making it the full two we expected, and with good reason. He struggled (though Ned Yost will claim otherwise), giving up a hit and 3 walks while striking out 2. He faced 7 batters and needed 38 (20 thrown for strikes) pitches to get 5 outs.

In the fourth inning, Chen took the mound and did manage a full 2 innings. He gave up no hits, walks, or runs and also struck out 2. Chen threw 28 pitches, with 21 strikes, showing good command and staying in the strike zone. I’d say the edge here goes to Chen.

Neither had to face batters like Ryan Braun or Aramis Ramirez, which makes Chen’s performance a little less impressive, perhaps…but what does that say about Hochevar?

While Chen easily outpitched Hochever, Mendoza has perhaps been most impressive thus far. He went 4 innings against the Texas Rangers, using 66 pitches (46 strikes) to get his 12 outs. He did give up a run on 4 hits and a walk, giving him a WHIP of 1.25 for the day, but also struck out 2 batters.

What does this all mean? Well, probably nothing, really. At least not yet, anyway. But the fact that Hochevar is likely the front-runner is a little disconcerting to most fans. On my way home from work Thursday night, Joel Goldberg (Fox Sports KC) was interviewed and asked to speak on the topic. He confirmed what we as fans are afraid of – the job is probably Luke’s to lose. Joel went on, telling the radio host, who kept going over statistics, the choice is not likely to be decided by the numbers. And why is that? Because the stats don’t reflect what coaches see.

Here we go again…back to the battle of stats (also known as a great way to measure actual results) versus a scout’s eye or manager’s gut feeling. Didn’t I just read something regarding this topic?

The fact of the matter is this: this battle should have no favorite, and if there is one, it certainly shouldn’t be Luke. If anything, Mendoza has earned the right to be considered the man to beat.  Yes, the 29-year old AAA veteran has, in my opinion, elbowed his way past the two major league veterans.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Last season Mendoza pitched 166 innings for the Royals, by far his biggest workload in the majors. After a bumpy start, something clicked, and he became a steady contributor on the mound. Maybe the steadiest starter KC had, outside of late addition Jeremy Guthrie. Mendoza had a 1.416 WHIP on the year, struck out 104 (not too impressive), and walked only 59. He finished the year with an 8-10 record and a 4.23 ERA. Not too shabby…especially if he can do it as a fifth starter.

How did the two vets stack up? Chen managed 191.2 innings in 2012, finishing the year with a 1.367 WHIP, which was better than Mendoza’s, but an ERA of 5.07, which was much worse. He also had better strike out and walk rates, but gave up home runs a twice the rate.

Hochevar? Well…Luke went 185.1 innings and also put up better strike out and walk rates. He had a worse WHIP (barely) at 1.419 and the most god awful ERA this side of Jonathan Sanchez. Luke, who gave up homers at about the same rate as Chen, crossed the finish line last year with an ERA of 5.73.

The most important difference, in my opinion, is that Mendoza, in addition to keeping the team in ballgames, is on an upswing in his career. He’s coming off two straight seasons of great success. We just reflected on his 2012 numbers, but going back to 2011, he dominated in AAA with a 12-5 record, 2.18 ERA, and 1.247 WHIP. He followed that up with two solid starts in the big leagues, going for a total of 14.2 innings. He posted a 2-0 record, 1.23 ERA, and 1.091 WHIP. If you add those starts to his 2012 numbers, Mendoza has a total of 180.2 innings, a 3.99 ERA, and 1.389 WHIP.

Chen hasn’t been terrible, either. In his last three years with KC, he’s compiled 487 innings, a 35-29 record, 4.40 ERA, and 1.349 WHIP. And, as I mentioned earlier, he’s a lefty, which might give him a little edge.

What of our front-runner? Hochevar, the former number one overall draft pick, has been nothing short of a failure. Since we only looked at the previous three years for Chen, I’ll do the same for Luke (which excludes his 6.55 ERA from 2009). In the last three seasons, Hochevar has racked up 486.1 innings (on pace with Chen), a 25-33 record, 5.11 ERA, and 1.365 WHIP.

It would be one thing if Luke was a good pitcher coming off a bad year, but he’s a chronically bad pitcher coming off yet another bad year. Chen wasn’t much better in 2012, but Hochevar has never had a season as good as Chen’s best. Mendoza was trending up a bit, while the other two were trending down. Still, it’s a tough call between Chen and Mendoza, but Luke should be the one with something to prove, not the other way around.

The good news? Last year, all three would’ve been a lock for the rotation. This year, there can be only one.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

So with that in mind, let’s make the best of it. He’s shown that, on occasion, he can be dominant. He’s also shown that, more frequently, he can be a 6’5″ gascan on the mound. The Royals stick with him because they see the good stuff and think they can fix it. And boy, have they tried to fix it. They’ve had him change his sequencing and selection of pitches, asked him to simplify things. Now he’s noticed something that he’s working on changing when runners reach base.

So far it hasn’t worked, but the Royals still hope.

I wanted to take another look just in case I was missing something. At the end of 2011, Hochevar looked like he’d figured it out. He had a 3.52 ERA after the All-Star Break that year. That got me to wondering about what things were different in the second half of 2011. The Royals had Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer promoted and entrenched into their corner spots. Alex Gordon was still cruising along and Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur were changing some minds.

Also Salvador Perez arrived a month after the break.

Was it that simple? Salvador Perez reaches the majors and all of a sudden Hochevar becomes a stable pitcher? He opened up 2012 with Sal on the 60 day DL and looked like he was coming close to being released after a few awful starts, or at least demoted to the bullpen. Injuries required he stay in the rotation though and he looked like his old self, with all the big innings and lost games.

I checked Hochevar’s splits to see if Perez had some magic power over him that other Royals catchers hadn’t.

As you can see, Perez has been better than most ERA-wise for Hochevar, but it’s not like he’s working miracles. But what interested me was the strikeout to walk numbers. Hochevar has struck out a higher percentage of batters throwing the Perez than any other catcher (with 50 or more innings caught) the Royals have paired him with. He’s walked the second-lowest percentage of batters while paired with Perez.

It’s a fairly small sample to go off of, considering the Royals have trotted in so many catchers over the years, and because of Perez’s injury last year, so it’s not even a full season of work, but if someone told you that Perez, the franchise catcher, got more out of Hochevar than any other catcher so far, wouldn’t you buy it?

When Perez returned from knee surgery on June 22nd last year, he caught Vin Mazzaro. Hochevar didn’t get paired with him until June 25th.

June 25, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) Hugs catcher Salvador Perez (13) after pitching a complete game shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Hochevar threw a complete game shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays. He walked one, gave up seven hits and struck out eight in the win, compiling a game score of 80. Luke Hochevar has thrown four games with a game score of 80 or better in his career. Three of those have been caught by Salvador Perez:

• September 3, 2011 vs. Cleveland Indians: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB  - Game Score: 81
• June 25th, 2012 vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Hochevar’s first 2012 game throwing to Perez – Game Score: 80
• August 21, 2012 at Tampa Bay: The 1-0 duel against Cy Young winner David Price. Hochevar threw eight innings of shutout baseball, giving up just one hit and striking out ten for a game score of 87, a career best. The game went into extra innings, so he didn’t even get the win for it.

Once Perez was back, Hochevar was better. From that June 25 start until the end of August, he threw 75.1 innings and had a 4.18 ERA over that span. More than acceptable, especially given his history. So what else may have changed? Perez was catching him every game and there’s a shift in Hochevar’s pitch selection. Hochevar had started to turn things around a bit before Perez had returned and the Royals and Dave Eiland credited a shift to a more simple, basic set of pitches.

We want 85 percent of his pitches to be his four-seam fastball, his curveball and change-up. – Pitching coach Dave Eiland

Before Perez returned (per TexasLeaguers.com):

A lot of sinkers, a lot of sliders. So after Eiland made that statement (and Perez returned), how did Hochevar’s selection change?

A bit closer and there’s a definite shift away from the sinker and slider and to the curveball and fastball. Did Perez hold Hochevar to that better? Perhaps so. You’ll notice that this selection goes through the end of August.

Of course, maybe Perez had nothing to do (or not as much to do) with any turnaround. In the eight starts before Perez returned, Hochevar threw 43 innings and had a 4.40 ERA over that period. Adding those eight starts to the other 12 Perez starts through August, and Hochevar was a 4.26 ERA starter. That run started on May 17 when Hochevar lowered his ERA from 7.20 to 7.02 and ended on August 27 when his ERA was 4.93.

For all of the adjustments and all of the returned franchise catchers, Hochevar fell back in September. After having one start all year with four walks, he walked that many in two of his first three starts in September. In that month, Hochevar’s six starts amounted to a 9.56 ERA and swelled his ERA from 4.93 at the end of August to 5.73 once the season ended.

Did Hochevar revert to his sinker/slider ways?

Quite the opposite. Hochevar essentially turned into a two pitch pitcher in the month of September last year, focusing so much on the fastball and curveball that he threw one or the other 70% of the time.

So now we’re back at square one. One of Hochevar’s biggest issues throughout his career has been working with runners on. In 771 career innings, Hochevar has left just 63.4% of baserunners on base. His walk numbers have always been decent, so that’s limited the damage, if you can believe it. He’s had less runners on to come around and score.

But when more than a third of the runners you allow to reach base come around to score, that’s not a good thing. Most pitchers will have a 70-72% LOB%. Last year, before Perez returned, Hochevar was letting a ghastly 41% of baserunners score (a 58.8% LOB% according to FanGraphs’ formula). Once Perez returned to the end of the year, that improved to a 65.6% LOB%. During the June 25 to August stretch, Hochevar left 73% of baserunners on.

But once September hit, all the good evaporated.

Maybe it was a matter of overthrowing. Those were some of the worries Hochevar expressed at the end of the 2012. Hochevar has said that he’s noticed that he’ll throw the ball flat out of the stretch with a “soft front side” and miss location.  It’s something he says he’s worked on heading into spring training. He says he can reach back and keep everything compact without his front side flying open now and the idea (the hope) is that this adjustment (and being a bit more diverse in his pitch selection than in September) spur Hochevar to success.

Maybe Hochevar is simply cursed. I don’t believe in such voodoo, but he’s ran into patches of success in the past and it’s always ended in the same way, with his season ending with him well below expectations. He could be trapped in a cycle that Sal Perez can’t even save him from. He could just be one of those players that, despite numbers suggesting he should be able to be around average, performance-wise, never really gets there.

His first spring start was on Wednesday against the Brewers. He gave up the only two runs Milwaukee scored, walked three and struck out two. He was pulled after 38 pitches, 20 of which were strikes (I assume 40 was his pitch limit). Hochevar said he was specifically working on his two seam fastball and his command wasn’t there yet. He’ll have more opportunities this spring, but the season is swiftly approaching. Hochevar is the leader for the fifth starter spot, but he’s not guaranteed the spot by any means. He’ll have to put it all together – Perez, the mechanics, the pitch selection – to win the spot and keep it through the year.

But that doesn’t mean that we can’t look at how best to leverage that fifth spot.

September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Bruce Chen has put in some decent years as a starter for the Royals, getting by on guile and finesse. Luke Hochevar is the well-documented enigma, but the good games are usually really good (although the bad ones are really bad). Luis Mendoza is on the outside looking in. None of the three are ideal fits for a rotation spot.

So what’s a team to do?

I have to give credit to someone else for this potential solution. Last weekend, the Kansas City Baseball Vault helped present a showing of Major League at the Screenland Armour. Before we started the movie, though, we threw it out to the attendees who might have questions about the Royals. One gentleman pitched this idea:

Platoon Chen and Hochevar.

Aside from the handedness advantages, the idea is that there are enough splits and metrics to figure out where a pitcher could have an advantage – which stadiums, against which types of hitters –  so why sit on one guy as your main option every fifth game when you can swap them out?

It’s unconventional, which is likely why it’ll never happen. Baseball is much more old-fashioned than most other major sports. If the baseball thought process was applied to basketball, Magic Johnson never runs the point for the Lakers (nor does Lebron James). Football offenses would be trapped in the “three yards and a cloud of dust” mentality rather than the open, spread offenses of today. While pitch counts are limited and innings are monitored, that’s hardly a radical step in baseball evolution. That’s just protecting the business investment and not necessarily something that benefits performance on the field.

Like any different idea, there are benefits and downsides.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

One benefit is that rather than sitting on 30 starts from Hochevar, he might instead make 15 or 10. Less times on the mound should mean that Hochevar has less chances to hurt the team with bad starts (and even if all 10 are bad, well, at least it’s just those 10). Team less likely to hit homers? Maybe you put Chen out there. Are they a team prone to striking out? Hochevar has better swing and miss stuff. If they’re a ground ball hitting team, Mendoza’s a good fit for that matchup.

It could even go so far as digging into which home plate umpires have tendency to call a game more towards a pitcher’s strengths.

If a pitcher is cruising, they can go deeper into the game on the idea that they can be skipped the next time out. Each of the three will throw less innings and won’t be overworked, so depth remains intact. The Royals seem committed to opening the season with Mendoza and one of Chen or Hochevar as long relief options as it is, so why not just rotate them? Any of the three can start a game and the other two can be the long relief options behind them. If there’s a meltdown in progress, they can change gears right away rather than fight through.

Pitchers knowing they don’t have to try to stretch out to seven innings may throw harder, get a little more out of their stuff. They just go out and throw, rather than trying to ration their pitch counts. They can use all of their weapons because they only face a lineup twice and don’t have to hold something back for that third time through. In 2012, Hochevar and Mendoza followed the pattern of the rest of the league by performing better the first two times through the lineup than the third. Chen was worse against a lineup the first time through in 2012 but over the course of his career, he’s in the same boat as the others.

In a way, this three-headed monster approach isn’t much different than what the Colorado Rockies tried to do last season. With difficulties from their starters, they switched to a four man rotation and set 75 pitch limits on all starters. They also applied a piggy-backing element so that after the pitch limit, they’d shift to the next reliever who would be on a similar pitch count. The idea is to have pitchers face batters twice through the lineup and then switch to a new arm.

August 6, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

League-wide, pitchers generally do better the first two times through a lineup (and relievers especially the first time they face a team). This takes advantage of that fact. Then again, you have to consider that a team trying such approach probably doesn’t have the starters who can mow through a lineup three or four times, and the pitchers who can’t supplant the sub-par starters are probably not great either. So piggy-backing isn’t something you’ll see often unless the teams are very bad.

In the Royals case, they’re comfortable with their top four starters. That means it could only be a modified piggy-back approach. Rather than lining up a full staff of long relief guys who happen to start, it’s really just tweaking the last spot in the rotation. For the Royals, perhaps that would be beneficial considering they have Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland at their disposal as well. If they can get to the seventh inning with a lead, they should be okay. If it takes choosing the right starter and following them up with a long reliever, maybe that can work.

Theoretically, it’s an interesting solution. It turns a negative (Hochevar has his meltdown inning, Chen doesn’t have the stuff to dominate most nights, Mendoza’s not a control or strikeout specialist) into a positive. Limit the exposure of your worst starters and get the most out of their skills when the situation calls for it. Keep it fluid and allow for an escape anytime someone gets on a roll, of course. No need to be a slave to the idea if someone breaks out.

Of course, there are the downsides. First, if there’s no clear winner of a fifth spot, then nobody’s risen to the top and none of the three are strong options. It’s still marching out Chen, Hochevar or Mendoza. The cast of characters is the same, just used in different ways.

More variables come up. If the rest of the rotation doesn’t need a long reliever, you might go 8-10 days between starts for somebody and the disruption of a program may limit their effectiveness. We’ve all seen pitchers who have extended rest and come back too strong and don’t have the command.

Some additional problems arise. Will a pitcher be able to prepare properly by shifting roles so often? They should be able to, but many need the routine. There’s also the human element. Everyone has to buy in. Mendoza is approaching arbitration and Chen and Hochevar should be free agents next winter. They’ll want the innings and wins to show up on their resumes.

Now, if the Royals do nothing, some of these issues may still apply. They’re professionals and they’ll say the right things, but none of them will be happy being the long relief options when the season starts. Moving in and out of that role shouldn’t please them either. They could still find themselves with long stretches without getting into a game, depending on when a long reliever is necessary (or not). Theoretically, though, the Royals expect James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Santana and Wade Davis to be solid in their starting roles, so one can assume that they expect about six innings a start from the quartet. That leaves the Royals with that fifth spot reserved for long relief help as it is, so they’re in the same kind of situation.

I should be clear – I don’t think the Royals will try this idea out and I don’t know how well it would work, but the ideas seems like something that could be worth attempting. If there’s a team that will try it, though, it’s probably not the Royals. Ned Yost isn’t opposed to new ideas. He’s stated that using a closer more as a fireman makes sense. He’s also said that, while it makes sense, he’s not going to be the guy to try the theory out.

Johnson’s entering a battle with Miguel Tejada and Irving Falu for a utility infield spot. According to a Bob Dutton report, Falu will play some outfield this spring (as will Johnson) in addition to the infield while Tejada will play all over the infield as they sort out who will land on the opening day roster. Falu has options left and has an uphill climb in his pursuit of a utility spot. Johnson is out of options and is probably the favorite right now.

Dutton also noted that Danny Duffy felt great after his mound session on Tuesday and will throw again on Thursday.

May 6, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

If the Royals are winning in July when Duffy comes back, he could provide a nice spark to the rotation. A key factor in the team’s success will be pitching well all year, which makes Luke Hochevar‘s fight for the fifth spot in the rotation that much more significant for both he and the team.

So it’s no surprise, then, that as soon as camp opens, up the Royals and Hochevar are saying they’ve figured out the problem that’s turned Hochevar from a two-time first round pick into one of the worst starters in 2012. They’ve tried to keep him from tipping pitches, then had him change his sequencing, then changed his selection of pitches to simplify everything. Now he’s saying that he’s found a mechanical problem when runners reach base. If the pattern holds, he’ll find some success as he works on the new solution, then, after a while, he’ll go back to giving up big innings and falling apart.

The article points out that taking out seven awful starts would change Hochevar’s ERA from 5.73 to 3.65. That’d be comforting if the league allowed teams to throw out bad games. Dave Lesky pointed out the silliness of that exercise on Twitter:

The article about Hoch finding a flaw said he had a 3.65 ERA removing his 7 worst starts. Well it was 7.57 removing the 7 best. #Royals

— David Lesky (@DBLesky) February 14, 2013

And his ERA removing the 7 best AND the 7 worst was 4.94. #Royals

— David Lesky (@DBLesky) February 14, 2013

Needless to say, I’m skeptical.

The Pine Tar Press guys got a good interview with former Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer in, as well. He detailed why he disagrees with the Royals statements of wanting a different approach at the plate in 2013 and discussed his successes and failures as a coach. In regards to Eric Hosmer, he said that once he’d lost him, he couldn’t get him back. Seitzer also suggested that Ned Yost wouldn’t be the manager to lead the Royals to the playoffs.

You can look at those comments in a couple of ways. First, Bob Fescoe had already reported this week that Hosmer had tried to make adjustments on his own, so that seems to fit with Seitzer’s comments. Second, Seitzer’s philosophy is counter to the pull/power approach the Royals say they want to try in 2013. Finally, I’ve thought myself that Yost would be a great manager to get these guys ready to compete, but not necessarily the one who would be there when they were winning playoff series. He’s been involved with rebuilding teams and young players to where it’s sort of his calling card and he might not be enough to get everyone over the hump. This year will be telling.

But there’s also a bit of the “disgruntled ex-employee” to these comments. They’re not inflammatory, but they’re not gentle either. I don’t think Seitzer’s lashing out just because the Royals fired him, but I also don’t think that if he were asked the same questions this time in 2014 that he’d have the same answers if everything else were the same and he was just one more year removed from the situation. It’s a very good interview though, so make your own judgments.

Links

• I helped the guys at Razzball out with some questions about the Royals in 2013 from a fantasy perspective (with a touch of nonsense thrown in).
• Baseball America has a detailed rundown of the Royals international signings from 2012.
• The Phillies acquired Michael Young, Delmon Young and Yuniesky Betancourt (a minor league deal), and their media has the gall to pinch their noses at a visit from the Royals for their home opener. Time to exact some revenge for 1980…

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Hochevar will make $4.56 million in 2013 with another $100,000 in performance bonuses, according to Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star. That’s about a one million dollar raise from last year’s salary. Grathoff also noted that Dayton Moore has ever had a player get to an arbitration hearing and the streak will stay alive this year as well.

In 2012, Hochevar threw 185.1 innings and had a 5.73 ERA. He’ll battle with Bruce Chen for the final spot in a revamped rotation in spring training.

By now, we all know the Hochevar story. Great in some starts. Awful in a lot more. Below average the rest of the time. If he doesn’t stick in the rotation this spring, he may get a look out of the bullpen where he can come in with nobody on, a situation that seems to inspire better performance (and produces better numbers). Batters have a career OPS of .738 against Hochevar when he faces them with nobody on. When there are runners on base, that climbs to .851. Just as a means of comparison, Jeremy Guthrie‘s opposing batters have a .756 OPS with no runners on but just a small climb to .770 with runners on.

The Royals, obviously, hope that Hochevar finally turns that corner next season.

However, after looking over projections, it struck me that Will Smith fits in nicely as a starting rotation option relative to others. To this point, we know what Bruce Chen will be. He’ll have some good games. He’ll have some bad ones. He’ll settle in nicely as a #5 starter if he can get through six innings a start and get a quality start most times out. That’s fine. It’s bland, it’s uninspired, but it’s fine. There’s not a lot of upside to starting Bruce Chen. The league isn’t going to be surprised by Bruce Chen.

Similarly, Hochevar’s struggles for consistency have been well-documented here as well as in the traditional media. The only sort of consistency he has is his inconsistency. It’s maddening. He’s a former number one overall pick. He’s shown the ability to have fantastic starts at times. Starts that get everyone back on the bandwagon. But it’s difficult to trust what he can do. Plus, he’ll turn 30 this season, so that does limit some of his upside. I suppose it’s not too late, but who can blame a guy for being highly skeptical?

Jul 24, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Will Smith (53) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Knowing how the Royals operate, they’ll give either of those two the first crack at the last spot in the rotation. But Smith should get a look if either falters. Overall, his 2012 numbers look rough. His big league debut in Yankee Stadium went poorly after he gave up three homers in 3.1 innings. He followed that up with a good second showing, but gave up another three homers to the Minnesota Twins on June 4 and with the Royals playing starting pitcher roulette, he was sent back to Omaha with a 9.00 big league ERA.

He gave up another nine runs in 10.1 innings over his next two starts once he returned to Triple A.

Some were claiming that throwing him into the fire of Yankee Stadium intimidated him. Broke his confidence. Maybe there was a bit of that going on – Smith gets hit hard in New York, gets sent down, tries to make it up. Maybe he tries too hard and it follows him to Triple A. But after his shaky return to Omaha, he sorted things back out. Over four starts from June 26 to July 13, Smith threw 27.2 innings, struck out 29, walked only five and gave up just four earned runs. He earned his way back to the majors.

Once he made it back, Smith went right back into the starting rotation and stayed there through the end of the season. He made it through at least six innings in eight of his final thirteen starts and over that return stretch had an ERA of 4.64 (and a full season ERA of 5.32). Not great, of course, but the second stretch gives hope that he can be productive. Smith is only 23 years old and turns 24 in July. In the minors, he showed good control (2.1 BB/9) and could harness it again going forward. He’s been able to get ground balls throughout his professional career and has a decent record (in the minors) of keeping the ball in the park (and after he returned to Kansas City, he gave up only six more homers in 75.2 innings after July 19.

The Royals like Smith’s makeup and if he can progress a little, he should at least equal a potential contribution of Hochevar or Chen. He outperformed Hochevar’s ERA last season as it is and wasn’t far off from Chen’s 5.07. Right now, the choice might look like Hochevar or Chen, but it doesn’t have to be.

I don’t expect Smith to break out of spring training and win a spot in the rotation. This is where roster trickery steps in. Smith has two options left, and unless there’s an injury or he vastly outperforms Chen and Hochevar in Surprise, he’ll start the year in Triple A where he can pitch on a regular schedule, but he’ll probably be the first starter called up if an opening comes up. Last year was the first season in which Chen surpassed 190 innings since 2005. Hochevar isn’t reliable (as the next terrible start is always lurking) and should be on a short leash. Luis Mendoza could step in, but the Royals seem content to stick with him in a long relief role. That makes Smith an easy option in that situation.

By the end of the 2013, season, Smith should be installed in the rotation. If he can progress, he may not be much more than a fourth starter on most teams, but league-average starters who can throw 200 innings a year are plenty valuable. Smith fits that bill nicely.

They’re really only going to go with the conventional five starters and James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis have the inside track for four spots. After them, it’s a mix of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, and Will Smith seeking the fifth spot.

With that in mind, the Royals have reportedly been looking to unload Hochevar recently. His struggles have been notable over the years, and frustratingly so. Two strong starts get followed up by two bad ones. One great one precedes three awful ones. There’s no real pattern and no clue as to which Hochevar will show up on a given night. The talent is there when you look at him, but the results have never come along.

Regardless, the Royals tendered him a contract and have until January 18th to come to a salary agreement for 2013 or exchange figures in advance of arbitration hearings. Now, they’re trying to trade him.

Jul 5, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the Royals had called the Colorado Rockies about Hochevar, and there seems to be interest. Renck noted that the Rockies saw Hochevar as more valuable as a non-tender player. That’s obvious, since they’d be able to negotiate a lower salary than a projected $4-5 million he’d get as an arbitration-eligible player and they’d save prospects, too. But that it’s mentioned at all suggests to me that there may be slight interest at least. The Royals would like to move the salary obligation if they could and it would clear up their rotation picture now and later in the year when Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy return (barring setbacks).

As for the potential return, the Royals can’t exactly be picky. Hochevar has eaten innings the past couple of years, but they haven’t been quality innings. There’s just not likely to be a lot of teams willing to part with significant prospects to take him off the Royals hands. Depending on which source you look at, he’s been below replacement level for his career so far (according to Baseball Reference, he has a -0.3 WAR) but he’s been much better according to FanGraphs (8.9 WAR).

The difference between the two, as I understand it, is that B-R places more weight on the actual results on the field, so if Hochevar stranded only 66% of the baserunners who reached against him (as happened in 2011), those are runs against him and simply count in the WAR calculation. FanGraphs looks more at the FIP and xFIP of a pitcher to see how they theoretically should have performed based on how many runners they stranded (for starting pitchers, the average is about 70-72%; Hochevar’s career LOB% has been 63.4%), how their BABIP and HR/FB% compared to league average and takes those figures and tries to correct everything to show what they “should” have had as an ERA. Hochevar has consistently lagged behind his peripheral numbers – in other word, he should be better than this, but over 128 starts and nearly 800 innings, he hasn’t been.

A good illustration of this discrepancy is Hochevar’s 2009 season. His ERA was 6.55 in 143 innings. Really bad. B-R gave him -0.7 WAR for the year. His FIP was 4.84 and his xFIP was 4.28 that season, so FanGraphs gave him 1.5 WAR.

So maybe it’s prolonged bad luck or maybe he’s just not good enough to be a league average starter. Either way, team’s aren’t going to give up a lot for that kind of track record. Maybe the Royals can flip him for a fringe prospect or a guy who’s outgrown his hype. Find a 25-year-old outfielder who’s been stuck between Double A and Triple A and see if a change does him some good, or take a chance on some raw kid who walks everyone, but throws 99 mph at the age of 19 that may not be anything more than a reliever. Maybe the Royals just take cash.

If they just want to get rid of him now that they’ve filled out their rotation, it may be their only option. They can still wait though. It’s not like after designating Vin Mazzaro and Clint Robinson when their options were to lose both after ten days or at least get something  - anything – back for them.

The Royals say they have faith that Hochevar is going to turn it around and figure out how to be a consistent big league starter, but if they’re shopping him around, that’s exactly what they should be saying. I’m getting the feeling that before spring training is over – if not  sooner – the two sides will have parted ways.

Thirty-nine pitchers have started 50 or more games for Kansas City and Hochevar has a lower ERA+ than all of them. Among the same group, only Dan Reichert (-0.5) and Glendon Rusch (-0.3) join him on the negative side of bWAR (-0.3). I suppose you know all of this, after all, myself and others have been tracking these numbers for a few years now. Ned Yost believes Hochevar will bounce back in 2013, but his career best ERA+ is just a meager 87, so bounce back may not mean what Yost thinks it means.

I felt after the season that Hochevar may have pitched himself out of Kansas City with his September performance (9.56 ERA, 1.87 WHIP) but that turned out to be wishful thinking on my part. Dayton Moore was apparently fine with him having the worst season of his career, as well as his most expensive. I don’t get it.

July 25, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) reacts after being ejected for hitting Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) with a pitch in the fourth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

With Ervin Santana in the fold, and Jeremy Guthrie re-signed, the time was perfect to part ways with the right-hander. It’s hard to listen to team officials talk about the financial challenges they face while they are at the same time preparing to flush more than four million dollars down the drain. Hochevar is talented, I get it, but it’s just not going to happen for him in KC. I want to be wrong, I would be thrilled to be wrong. I just don’t think I am.

Moore is insistent on bringing in another pitcher to front the rotation, which is fine (but not at this price), but that just raises more questions as far as I’m concerned. Right now, and not counting Will Smith and Jake Odorizzi, the rotation is full.

Here’s the starting corps as I see it:
Guthrie
Santana
Hochevar
Chen
Mendoza

So then, who is the odd man out if another starter is acquired? The front office spent last winter hyping Luis Mendoza and then Mendoza went out and led the team with a 97 ERA+, a mark Hochevar has never come close to achieving. Are they going bail on him after a semi-successful season? I suppose he’d move to middle relief but it still wouldn’t make sense due to the fact he was a more effective pitcher than Hochevar.  Bruce Chen is on the books for 4.5 million so good luck trying to find a team willing to take that on after the season he just completed. The logical, easy move would have been to non-tender Hochevar.

Five straight seasons Hochevar has pitched 100+ innings and five straight seasons he’s finished with an ERA+ under 90. What the heck, let’s make it six.

Some other night, I guess, Royals fans.

Official word was just released by the best damn beat writer in the History of Whatever, Bob Dutton, that all remaining unsigned Royals players have been tendered a contract. That list of remaining players included Luke Hochevar.

Now official. #Royals did tender contracts to all remaining unsigned players and, yes, that includes Luke Hochevar.

— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) December 1, 2012

For each of his five seasons pitching for the Royals, Hochevar has been the very definition of disappointment. He’s never finished the season with an ERA under 4.60, and in three seasons he’s finished with an almost unimaginable 5.51, 5.73, and 6.55.

Hochevar has the 16^th worse ERA in the history of recorded data (that’s 1871, y’all) for all pitchers with more the 500 innings pitched at the major league level at 5.39, which isn’t that bad when you consider it was as bad as 12^th among 500 inning throwers as recently as May. So, improvement?

And despite all evidence to the contrary, despite that Luke Hochevar has been dubiously bad enough to have a hashtag named after him for which inning he’ll implode in on that night, the Royals still believe that he can harness his potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in 2006. They have to be the only ones left that believe this.

When Dayton Moore was hired to be the GM of the Kansas City Royals he famously said, “pitching is the currency of baseball”. For six seasons the Royals have chased a competent and consistent starting rotation while giving 771 innings, and Opening Day starts, on a pitcher that is better than only six players in the history of the sport.

Trust the Process.

Now is not the time to panic. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I have two items, not really items I guess…but wishes, on my Christmas list this year. The first is for David Glass to stop being so damn cheap. Wish number two is for Dayton Moore not to panic.

I hate to go back to this well, as I’ve already examined the art of breaking of even, which seems to be all Mr. Glass cares about, but this is just getting ridiculous. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals are burning up the phone lines trying to trade Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen. Why the sudden urge to trade these two? To free up money so the team can acquire a (fingers crossed) better pitcher.

I’m not saying the Royals shouldn’t try to trade them. By all means…see if you can find a sucker.  But according the MLBTR report, David Glass told Bob Dutton of the KC Star that the team has to maintain a $70 million dollar payroll…to do what? Say it with me now…BREAK EVEN. This is the part where I get so mad I chuck the closest thing within reach across the room in frustration. Tonight, however, that thing is my cell phone – which I need – so, in an effort to save myself money, just visualize my cell phone shattering into a hundred pieces against the living room wall.

Don’t get me wrong. I like the basic thought process here…especially the part where the team rids itself of Hochevar. It’s that “break even” mantra that kills me. Glass just can’t keep running the team this way, and can’t keep reminding fans that’s all he cares about. We know. We get it. On behalf of every Royals fan out there, I’d like to quote Ben Affleck from Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back and ask, “When, Lord? When? When’s gonna be my time?”

And here’s the thing – we don’t HAVE to trade Hochevar. We can non-tender Luke, who is arbitration eligible and projected to have a salary in the $4.5-$5 million range, and be done with him. That’s easy money. My fear is that Moore and Glass won’t simply cut ties and let him walk. If you can’t trade him, fine. But either way, it’s time to let him go. It costs nothing to do so. In fact, you’ll actually MAKE money. Money you can use towards a pitcher and maybe stay closer to that break even line.

Does anyone else want Chen? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Chen is trickier, as he’s got a guaranteed contract for one more year. I’ve been resigned to the fact that he’ll be on the roster in 2013, so I don’t think it’s imperative to move him, but by all means, if some random GM would like Chen on his team – trade the guy. I applaud the effort.

Now I’ll touch on my second Christmas wish, which is for Moore to keep his wits about him and not do something stupid to save his job. Something like…I don’t know…make an awful trade that cripples the franchise, which, hilariously, would probably result in him eventually losing his job anyway. What a cruel twist of fate that would be for DM the GM.

The awful trade I refer to, of course, would be something along the lines of the latest rumors. You know the ones…Wil Myers either goes to the Red Sox for Jon Lester or to the Rays for James Shields. The thought of either trade made me feel like vomiting. Not that either guy is a bad pitcher (although Lester had an awful 2012)…but for Myers? No thanks. Giving up the best hitting prospect in all of baseball for someone who is solid, but not necessarily an ace…it doesn’t make sense, and it goes against that “process” Moore has been telling us about since he came to town.

Having a young player under control – and on the cheap – for the next several years is someone a team in BEM (break even mode) can’t afford to swap out for a player who costs much more, and is only under contract for two more seasons. Both Shields and Lester fit that description. Not only is that going against Moore’s process of building from within via the draft, it also goes directly against the owner’s philosophy. This is the type of deal that, most importantly, makes no baseball sense…but on top of that, makes a hypocrite of Moore. On the other hand…Myers for Matt Moore is something you’d have to think about. But that’s not the point here.

Guthrie at $5M means we have money to burn…Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I know we need pitching…believe me…I know. But here’s the thing – we’ve got to spend money. This is an ideal time for the team to go out and blow some cash on an ace type of pitcher. Yes, we just took on a large contract with Ervin Santana. And yes, we just signed Jeremy Guthrie for three years. But Guthrie’s contract is back-loaded, and Santana’s is a one-year commitment. For 2013, we owe Guthrie $5 million. That’s all. Go out and make a splash!

Not only does Guthrie’s contract structure make a high dollar signing more affordable for 2013, but Santana being gone makes it affordable in 2014. With a high dollar ace and Guthrie anchoring a 2014 rotation, and (hopefully) a couple of young – and CHEAP – pitchers stepping up and/or bouncing back from injury, spending money makes perfect sense.

If we can get the owner out of BEM, and into the mindset of not only winning, but giving the loyal fans something to really be proud of…and we can keep Dayton from shooting himself in the foot, this team will be on the fast track to respectability. Otherwise, to once again borrow from Mr. Affleck, fans are going to be stuck asking “When’s gonna be my time?” for the foreseeable future.

• Pitcher Luke Hochevar
• Second Baseman Chris Getz
• Pitcher Felipe Paulino

If the Royals offer any of the three a contract, they’ll remain on the 40 man roster, figures will be exchanged by January 18 (at the latest) and by February 20, one way or another, the player will have a contract figure, either by prior agreement on terms or by an arbiter’s ruling.

If they don’t offer a contract, that player will be a free agent. Before he was designated for assignment, Brayan Pena was eligible but now is off the roster. Catcher Brett Hayes was also eligible after being claimed off waivers, but the Royals have agreed to a $600,000 deal for 2013 with him.

May 21, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Felipe Paulino (59) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

It’s getting fairly late in the game. So far, there hasn’t been much indication one way or another about what the Royals are going to do. Paulino is probably going to be safe. He’s pitched well since joining the Royals and, despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, the Royals seem to have him in mind for a return in or around July. MLB Trade Rumors projects his salary to fall around $2.7 million, which isn’t a big hit to the payroll, especially with what he’s shown previously.

If there is a hitch, it’s the injury factor. Last year, he opened the season on the disabled list, made seven starts, went back on the DL, made a few rehab starts, then was diagnosed with a UCL tear. There were concerns about his health before the tear, with questions about his shoulder. Perhaps the time off and a good rehab program as he rebuilds arm strength will assuage those concerns, or perhaps he won’t ever get back the effectiveness he’s shown with the Royals. He should be an easy guy to retain.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 90%

Getz is probably safe, too. He faced multiple injuries, finally succumbing to a fractured thumb in mid-August. The good news? Despite those injuries, Getz had a career year at the plate, hitting .275. He had the second most extra base hits in his career.

The bad news? Even though it was only 13 extra base hits, it was the second most extra base hits in his career. He hit .275, sure, but he only got on base at a .312 clip. He was pretty good in the field, but overall, still barely above a replacement level player. He’s just not somebody a team can reliably put into an everyday second baseman role. As a late-inning replacement for defense or as a pinch runner? Fine. As a once-or-twice-a-week start? No problem.

July 15, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second basemen Chris Getz (17) turns a double play with a throw to first over Chicago White Sox base runner A.J. Pierzynski (12) during the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

MLBTR projects his salary to be $1.2 million in 2013. About 2.5 times the league minimum. That’s reasonable for a player of his experience. But the Royals do have options if they want to go in another direction. Johnny Giavotella hasn’t taken the reins but he has an opportunity to do so in spring training. If he hits and shows any semblance of near-average defense, the job is his. The Royals were impressed with Tony Abreu last year and Irving Falu took his first opportunity in the big leagues and ran with it. None of these are perfect options, but they could be effective. I think it’s his last chance, but Giavotella has the most upside of the group, while Getz has hardly any upside at all. The Royals might be better off non-tendering Getz and using Falu as a utility infielder and part time second baseman. They’d same some marginal money, but they’d have more flexibility, as Falu can switch hit and play multiple positions.

Still, the Royals love Getz and rave about his grit. He’s the scrappy, old-school, dirty jersey player coaches love. I think they let that mask his obvious faults, but hey, it’s not my team.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 70%

The big question in this whole operation is Luke Hochevar.

The story is no different. He looks great for stretches, the looks wretched for other stretches. For all the “stuff” he has on the mound, he just can’t get consistent results. One day he’ll outduel David Price and can turn around and give up seven runs before you’ve reached your seat.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

He’s projected for $4.4 million in 2013 by MLBTR, but only Ubaldo Jimenez had more losses in the American League. Nobody else allowed more runs or earned runs. He entered 2012 with a 5.29 career ERA and it went up after 2012.

You look at his numbers – a decent 6.2 K/9, close to 200 innings a year, usually a good ground ball rate – and he looks like at least an average pitcher, but he’s usually well below that. He just should be better. The Royals believe in him, and that’s what they should do while he’s still on the roster, but he’s got to turn it around, and for real this time.

But to pay him $4.4 million to guess at if he’d flip the switch or not is silly, especially when other gaps need to be filled. With Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith and Bruce Chen, the Royals have a rotation they can march out there filled with players better than Hochevar already. If they sign or trade for another pitcher, all the better. With Paulino (see above) coming back along with Danny Duffy and (knock on wood) the emergence of Mike Montgomery, Hochevar is just unnecessary, especially at that price. They simply don’t need him.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 15%

But for now, nothing’s happened.

Dayton Moore has never taken a case to arbitration, so look for the Royals to make their decisions before the deadline. Even if there’s no announcement of money by the deadline, both sides can come to an agreement up until a scheduled arbitration hearing. The deadline just determines who’ll actually be kept on the roster.

Paulino and Getz should be safe. Hochevar’s gotta go.

Too often bloggers and commentators that follow the Kansas City Royals get put into the box of being critical without ever examining the other side of the equation. Too often bloggers and commentators that follow the Kansas City Royals are labeled as negative, or a troll, without ever asking the most important questions on the subject about the validity and competence of an organization that cannot get out of it’s own way. And too often bloggers and commentators that follow the Kansas City Royals can get caught up in their own fandom, their own emotions, and their own desires to finally to cheer and write for a winner.

After the Royals acquired a pitcher for whom there is little compelling argument that he is definitively better than any arm currently on the staff, I was overcome with my own subjective likes of Ervin Santana’s stuff, delivery, reputation and past to see it for what it really was. No doubt, the Royals were in the same boat, otherwise the trade of a minor league arm and the committing to a percentage of the payroll a team should never commit to Ervin Santana, wouldn’t have happened.

At first glance the trade seemed to be a win. The Royals acquired a pitcher that would have been sought after (to what extent is arguable) in the free agent market, and there is a glaring need in at least four of the five starting rotation spots. But the concern before any of the offseason musical chairs started, was that Dayton Moore would enter the market too soon, overpay for a talent that would have been readily available for less, and not really find anyone that would make that much of a difference anyway.

Sadly, that is exactly what happened.

Over the past four seasons there is no discernable difference between Santana, Luke Hochevar, and Bruce Chen. Sure there’s the occasional peak in strikeout numbers, but other than 2008 when Santana had the best year of his career, he’s gotten steadily worse and bottomed out in 2012 with a -0.9 fWAR.

Say what you will about Hochevar, and fans will, he’s been remarkably consistent (just barely over average) throughout his career, and he was better than Santana last year. Oh, and he’s a year younger.

So when it comes to justifying the acquisition, fans should take what they know and what they think of Luke Hochevar, and then ask themselves if they would approve of giving him $12 million next season. Changes things a little, doesn’t it?

But this is to be expected. The history of Dayton Moore as general manager of the Royals lends itself to predicting these kinds of scenarios; boxing himself into a corner of perceived need, only to come out swinging with large sums of dollars given to Willie Bloomquist, Horacio Ramirez, and Jeff Francoeur.

Sure there’s the idea that players don’t want to play in Kansas City (because they’re perennially a loser, and who’s to blame for that?) and they’ll have to overpay for lesser players on the open market, but that argument is a cop-out, an easy excuse for why role players and bad players are handed more money than anyone else in baseball would do.

This is also where the flaw in The Process rears its ugly head. Not everything can be built entirely from within, and while small market teams that struggle to get out of the bottom of the standings will spend their time telling you that free agency is a bad route to go when building a team, they ignore the fact that it is a necessary one.

The idea that teams “cannot be built through free agency” is a laughable cause continually trumpeted by organizations that show ineptness in how to use it correctly. And the organizations that routinely use that phrase as the answer to a question that wasn’t asked, like the Royals, are also ones that are so afraid, so petrified of spending their available dollars poorly, that they back into situations to do just that by convincing themselves that there is no other way.

It’s what happens when you draft Luke Hochevar No.1 overall (think whatever you like about that subject) and fail to develop him. It’s what happens when your top two organizational draft picks, whom you’ve touted as sure-fire stars, both put up on-base percentages lower than .310 in their sophomore seasons. It’s what happens when, entering year seven of a regime, the entire starting rotation could be swapped out for five new names, and no one would bat an eye.

Ervin Santana being acquired isn’t the problem, solely. He’s a sign. He’s yet anther worrisome acquisition that shows where the Royals current administration is lacking, and how far behind the rest of the league it puts them.

Trading for and picking up the option on Santana wouldn’t be that much of a head scratching move if we didn’t know what we already know. Dayton Moore is the one that talks more than most about the payroll limitations laid upon him as general manager of a small market team. And he’s also the one that just agreed to pay 12 million dollars next year to a pitcher that was statistically worse than all the starting pitchers in the Royals rotation. And he did so before the rest of baseball showed him if he should.

(That would be a fun game, let’s try: Luke Hochevar, starting pitcher. Nope, see, that doesn’t work.)

So much has been made of the Royals need to “finally commit to winning”, that if money isn’t spent then the owner of a business who is entitled to make money on his business greedy David Glass might just have to rewind himself straight out of town. (Because that’s how it works.) The time is now and the division is ripe for the taking, because it’s really quite terrible after all.

But at what cost comes this pursuit of starting pitching? Is it by any means necessary? Is it overspend for a product that you know isn’t worth the cost? Is it, as some have written, making a “trade that hurts”?

Hopefully, the answer to all of these questions is “no”.

While there was supposed to be a window to complete this “Mission” – a window that keeps getting moved every year or so – opening and going through that window still needs to be done with some semblance of responsibility, just in case the effort to jump through isn’t met with a blue ribbon, but rather a deafening silence.

Payroll is a commodity just like service time for young, cheap players, and in Dayton Moore’s tenure one thing he’s struggled with doing – the thing he’s struggled with the most – is appropriately allocating his available payroll dollars to players that can and will produce. (Say what you will about Glass, he’s spent more. Much more. He’s not been the one choosing the players.)

Because of this track record there’s a concern, a much deserved concern, that the starting pitching targets acquired will either a) not be much better than the arms already on the roster for a higher cost b) be a much higher cost but not be the type of difference makers to matter, saddling the organization with sunk costs in future years or c) be acquired by trade that cripples a preserved strength – offense – that really isn’t a strength to begin with.

There should almost be a “homerun or hope” approach to the arms targeted to better help this team moving forward. Have two or three names that can be acquired at the top of the free agent costs in baseball (Zack Greinke?) and try to get one of them. (One difference maker sets this team up better than two or three middle of the road guys.) And have two or three names that can be acquired by using pieces in the low minors to a rebuilding team (Calixte, Mondesi, Ventura, etc.).

If none of those work, then try and find the “change of scenery” guy with the chance to be more under the Royals system, the same way the scouts saw something in Felipe Paulino. This way the organization isn’t crippled with the contract of a pitcher who’s probably no better than a No.3 with a roster that’s really not quite there yet, and there are pieces still in place from June and July of next year to use as pieces to really make a splash.

The main concern is a panic move at this point. While everyone wants to see a winning team for a change, overpaying for a pitcher just for the sake of making a move and getting someone you don’t truly want, would be a big mistake.

Oct 1, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Before this year there was only one season in team history where a pitcher tossed 185+ innings with an ERA+ below 85. One season from 1969-2011, and that was Larry Gura, in 1983 (200.1 IP, 83 ERA+). Now there are three. Bruce Chen (191.2, 81) and Luke Hochevar(185.1, 71) are now card carrying members of this club. Overall, Chen was actually just the third 35 year old left-hander since 1901 to have such a season. Gura and Hall of Famer Rube Marquard (198, 78 in 1922) are the other two. While Gura was even worse at 36 years old (77 ERA+) Marquard was much better, posting a 106 ERA+ in 1923. I’m still not a fan of Chen’s but I think his SO/BB numbers suggest he’s legitimate bounce back candidate (as in bounce back to league average).

Luis Mendoza exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations and pitched 166 innings. He was better than Chen and Hochevar but was still below league average. This means that the Royals had three players pitch 162+ innings with ERA+’s less than 100. It’s not an uncommon occurrence overall, they’re the 17th team to accomplish this since 2002, but it had never happened before in Kansas City.

Mendoza performed better than I thought he would but I’m not going to be eating any crow. I maintained that he would be unsuccessful if he didn’t strike more people out. He also walked entirely too many hitters to thrive as a pitch to contact guy. Success came this year when his SO/9 went up and his BB/9 went down. Well maybe I’ll have a small slice since I didn’t think he had it in him to drastically improve his SO and BB rates. He did. Splitting his season in two shows the differences.

4/9 – 6/23: 60 IP, 4.5 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9, 4.95 ERA
6/29 – 10/3: 106 IP, 6.28 SO/9, 2.46 BB/9, 3.82 ERA

If Mendoza can carry those second set of numbers into 2013 he would slot nicely into the back end of the rotation. It’s somewhat similar to the song we sang with Hochevar last winter so there is reason for pessimism.

Innings often fail to tell the whole story because if a pitcher is bad enough he’ll be bounced from the rotation. We’ve seen this many, many times this century (Chris George, anyone?) So ignoring innings, and looking at games started, we find that for the second consecutive season the Royals had five pitchers start 10+ games and end the season below league average. Only the 2006 team had more. Will Smith and Jonathan Sanchez join Chen, Hochevar and Mendoza on this list. Those five pitchers accounted for 73% of the starts this year.

And that, my friends, is how you lose 90 games in a season.

Win? I just want to break even. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball is a sport. Sports success is measured in wins and losses by fans, players, general managers, etc. I like to think team owners measure success the same way. Some do. I’m not sure David Glass does.

Mr. Glass has stated many times that his number one goal every year is to “break even.” When that’s the first thing out of your mouth, as it was during a Royals broadcast at the end of the 2012 season, it doesn’t sound like winning is a top priority.

I know…baseball is also a business, and the owners should run it like one. However, sports are a little different than the “normal” business venture. For example, when the local Target store remodeled to add a full grocery, local citizens weren’t asked to vote for a tax increase that paid for the upgrade. You know, like the citizens of Kansas City did when Glass wanted to upgrade the stadium (resulting in an increased value to his business).

Most people were happy to vote in favor of the stadium upgrades. The citizens of any town with a sports franchise want to be proud. They want a team they can be proud of and facilities to match. They also want an owner with the drive to win on the field.

To be fair, there have been some strides made with this ownership group. Hiring Dayton Moore, the hotshot general manager candidate at the time, was step one. Allowing Moore to increase scouting efforts, and funding those efforts, was step two. So far, so good. We trust “the process.” The team starts shelling out big bucks to the high draft picks, bringing in top shelf talent. Eventually, this process gains the respect of national baseball writers and gurus, and Kansas City has the number one ranked farm system in all of baseball.

Personally, I’m loving it. “This is going great!” Or so I would tell myself. Sure, the big league team was going through one losing season after another. “But just wait,” I would tell anyone who would listen, “we’ve got Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Zack Greinke.” Later it was, “We’ve got Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers!”

I followed the minors closely…waiting for the next big prospect to arrive. It made the losing at the big league level easier to swallow. I made a point of going to “The K” to witness the major league debuts of guys like Greinke, Gordon, and Hosmer. When fans of other teams would tell me my Royals sucked, I would tell them, “Just wait…it won’t be long now.”

Well, I’m still waiting. A little disenfranchised…but still hopeful. I do believe that teams in a market like Kansas City should build from within as much as possible. Identify the best talent and draft them, trade for them, etc. Then hope like hell that some of them pan out. When they do, you hope the team can identify the best of the best and lock them up to long-term deals. When they don’t…you hope the general manager and the owner will recognize they swung and missed on a guy and cut their losses.

The worst. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s cutting losses that has been a problem in Kansas City. This team consistently trotted out two of the worst starting pitchers ever. EVER. These guys, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar, could not, for whatever reason, pitch their way out of the rotation. Eventually, the Davies experiment ended. We are still in the midst of the Hochevar nightmare…which is more scary than a creepy clown.

I don’t know who to blame here – David Glass or Dayton Moore? Probably both. Moore is too stubborn to give up on the guy. But Glass is the owner here…the boss. Do you think, to throw out an extreme example, George Steinbrenner would have allowed this to go on when he owned the New York Yankees? No way. And yes…Steinbrenner overstepped boundaries all the time and is the extreme example of a “hands on” owner. Say what you will about Mr. Steinbrenner, though. The guy wanted to WIN.

Look at it this way:

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks. “

That quote is from Warren Buffet, widely considered the most successful investor of our time. Does that help put things in terms you can relate to, Mr. Glass?

It’s time to put an end to the Luke Hochevar era. You already came out and said you’re spending money on pitching this offseason. It’s been talked about for weeks now…that’s the priority of this team. The front office believes in the position players and bullpen, and probably rightfully so for the most part.

It’s not enough to just spend money on a patchwork rotation. Agreeing to spend money is step one. Step two: no longer accepting mediocrity. It’s okay to let go, or to sit players down. I know…Frenchy would be an expensive part time player, but sometimes you have to operate in the red a little to gain ground. We don’t need to give raises to guys like Hochevar or even Chris Getz. There are other options.

It’s time to put up or shut up. It’s time to go out on the open market and buy a real pitcher – or trade for a pitcher you’re willing to pay big bucks. It’s time to stop patching leaks. Put your best 25 players on the roster, regardless of salary or service time or 40 man roster issues.

Mr. Glass, if you want to keep your fans coming back for more, you need to make a statement. It’s time to cut your losses, invest wisely, and win.

As the title suggests, we had to talk about the Royals latest approach to fixing Luke Hochevar and his spot in the organization. We considered the price to keep him, what he might have left in the tank and what the alternatives might be.

We also talked about Lorenzo Cain‘s injury, Omaha’s quest (in vain) to repeat as PCL champs and which players might get dropped from the 40 man roster this winter. Salvador Perez was also a key figure in our discussion, as he had just matched Darrell Porter‘s team-record hitting streak for a catcher.

To finish up, we tossed out all the cliches and phrases we always hear as Kansas City sports fans. I think we’ve really turned a corner with this one…

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Then Luke Hochevar gives up seven runs before most fans had opportunity to sit down at the 2012 home opener and it’s been series of peaks and valleys since.

Bob Dutton talked with many within the Royals organization and the feeling is that Hochevar is sticking around. Some, like Rany Jazayerli, should be ready to cut the cord.

Luke Hochevar. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Three facts: 1) Luke Hochevar has a 5.30 ERA in 747 innings as a big leaguer. 2) After two sub-5.00 ERAs in 2010 and 2011, he’s sitting on a 5.36 ERA this season. 3) Luke Hochevar is probably going to get about $5 million dollars this winter if the Royals offer him a contract.

Jazayerli points out that Hochevar has never performed as the advanced metrics suggest he should. His career xFIP is 4.29. His 2012 xFIP would be a reasonable 4.36. Yet year after year, his ERA comes in higher than his xFIP. The Royals can’t seem to pinpoint the issue. They’ve suggested it’s tipping his pitches, made adjustments and seen improvements, then Hochevar regressed. They’ve asked him to simplify his pitch selection, he did so, and saw some results. Then he again regressed. For ever brilliant outing he puts up two stinkers.

He’s definitely an enigma.

I’m not opposed to the idea of trying a pitcher in the bullpen before cutting bait. He’s got good stuff and the talent shows itself from time to time and he could be someone who could contribute value in short stints. But the arbitration figure he’s likely to get isn’t going to pay him as a middle reliever. The Royals aren’t in a position to go toss $5 million at a guy who’s only effective in two inning bursts. That’s money that can go towards a better starter on the open market.

But fine, let’s say they keep him around. The Royals have that right. But they’re trying awfully hard to sell us that Hochevar is someone who’s *this* close to getting it together. Apparently, the same blindness they had towards Kyle Davies’s ineffectiveness still exists in the organization. I’m all for loyalty, but there’s a point where it extends into fear of making any change at all.

Ned Yost tossed out some names. He compared Hochevar’s career path to that of Kevin Millwood, Jason Schmidt and Jorge de la Rosa.

Alright, let’s play that game.

Luke Hochevar turns 29 on Saturday.

And here are those other pitchers through their age 28 season:

Kevin Millwood

Millwood finished third in Cy Young voting in 1999 and put up a significantly better ERA in an era where offense was explosive. His worst ERA in his early years is still lower – even in the juiced ball era – than Hochevar’s best. Maybe Yost is referring to some years of struggle after Millwood had crossed 30 years old and was able to have a few years of success every now and then. That’s not a realistic comparison to Hochevar.

Jason Schmidt

Schmidt’s first couple of years were difficult, though he pitched in the same offensive period that Millwood started in. an injury-plagued 2000 looks bad but like Millwood, Schmidt’s worst full season otherwise was still better than Hochevar’s best. Overall, Schmidt had a solid career as a mid-level starter with the occasional hot stretch, but I can’t see the comparisons here either.

Jorge de la Rosa

de la Rosa fits a bit better, as he fought control issues for a long time and once those got into a reasonable range, he saw some success. Hochevar is at this point in his career, except the issue isn’t control for him. It’s everything else. Hochevar’s struggles have come with a career BB/9 that’s much better than de la Rosa’s best full season mark. He’s probably not going to improve it to such an extent to make a jump like de la Rosa did in 2010 and 2011. In those two seasons, de la Rosa threw 180.2 innings and had a 3.99 ERA (116 ERA+). Hochevar isn’t anywhere close to that.

So what’s Hochevar going to correct to get to the level of de la Rosa? I’m all for saying statistical measures like xFIP need a large sample size to be reliable, but to me, nearly 800 innings is enough and year after year, he can’t perform to the level the stats suggest he should. There’s got to be something else. Hochevar told Dutton:

You must have a consistent routine, a consistent thought-process. I do. This year has been tough, but I believe if I persevere through it, if I continue to prepare and battle, it’s got to pay out…

Here’s the thing, though. It doesn’t have to pay out. Just because the roulette wheel has hit black 25 times in a row doesn’t mean that it’s due to come up red. Perhaps the consistent approach and mindset are the problem. Consistency isn’t enough. If you throw a dart 200 times and hit the same spot, that’s consistent, but if that spot is three feet to the left of the bullseye, what good is it?

The Royals called 2012 “Our Time”. For whatever retconning they want to do to say it was meant for the All-Star Game and not expectations of competing for real, that’s what they labeled this season. Our Time. The window isn’t staying open forever and at some point, the Royals have to hold their players and coaches accountable. They waited and waited for Brian Bannister to recapture the magic of his rookie season. They waited and waited for Kyle Davies to unleash his “good stuff”.

At some point, you can’t wait any more.

There may not be a fit any more for Luke Hochevar. Photo Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals have Bruce Chen under contract for next season. Will Smith is a good bet to be another starter in the rotation. If it’s not right out of spring training, Jake Odorizzi should be up around May. That’s three pieces to build around. A promising rookie, a #4 starter and the quintessential replacement level player who can eat up innings and has upside to improve. Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino should be back in the middle of the year, barring complications from their rehab after Tommy John surgery (though pitchers aren’t often at their best right away after that process, so neither are guarantees to be big impact players. We hope so, but there’s no guarantee.) Jeremy Guthrie might be an option, as well.

The Royals have an out here with Hochevar if they don’t offer him a contract this winter.

If you can take that $5 million you’d give Hochevar and use it to pad an offer for Shaun Marcum or Edwin Jackson or even the great white whale that is Zack Greinke, isn’t that a better option? Any pitcher with a true track record of being average or better would be fine.

I want to see Luke Hochevar figure it out. I want him to stop turning the corner and stay on one path. The poor guy must be dizzy from all those turns by now. I want the storybook ending where the number one overall pick figures it out, toughens up and leads the team to the promised land.

But nothing in his track record says he’s going to do that, no matter how many names Ned Yost tries to pass off as similar success stories. I’m not buying it. Neither should Kansas City.

Note: I should also include this nice analysis done by Jeff Zimmerman at Royals Review. One item the Royals say they want to fix is to have Hochevar be more sparing in using his cutter. Turns out, when he throws more cutters, statistically, he’s performed better. They simply don’t know how to fix him.

I wrote an article last week about Jeremy Guthrie, and how he is not the solution to the Royals pitching woes. I also took a parting shot at Luke Hochevar, and how he once again has turned it on (at least for the time being) which will most likely result in him being a part of the rotation again in 2013.

This can’t happen. The Royals ever changing date to become competitive now sits at 2014, unless…it hasn’t changed again, has it? I see no reason they can’t get a lot better than that a little bit sooner, as in next year, if the team is ready to end the Luke Hochevar era.

If you go back and read the end of my last article, and the ensuing discussion that took place in the comments, you’ll see a conversation about Hochevar, which made me think maybe I wasn’t being fair…maybe I should dig a little deeper when judging Luke. So I did. Looking at the stats, I don’t think I was wrong.

Here we go.

July 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) is relieved by manager. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

We’ll begin with Quality Starts (QS). This is a start in which a pitcher goes 6 innings and gives up no more than 3 earned runs. Basically,  if a pitcher has a QS, he’s left his team in a position to win. In 2012, of all American League starters, Luke ranks 32nd in QS. Of his 26 starts this year, 12 have been quality, meaning he gives KC a chance to win 46 percent of the time. The White Sox and Tigers, the good teams in the Central, have a combined six pitchers (three each) ahead of Hochevar in this category.

So quality isn’t Luke’s thing. Let’s look at runs allowed per 9 innings (not just earned, but unearned runs). Luke allows 5.4 runs per 9 innings. According to Baseball Reference, the teams he has faced this year have scored an average of 4.55 runs per 9, which means Hochevar allows almost a full run more than his opponents generally score.

Not only does Hochevar not stack up against opposing batters, the average starting pitcher is also better. The average starter, against the same opponents, with the same Royals defense behind him, would only give up 4.8 runs per 9 innings. Meaning what? Luke is below average.

Now let’s shift gears and look at WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This measures the number of wins a player gives his team over a replacement level player (minor league call up due to injury, for example). This is not comparing a big league player to the league average, but to someone who couldn’t even make the team. Detroit’s Justin Verlander has a WAR of 5.8, even after being roughed up by KC. Chris Sale, the young White Sox ace, has a WAR of 5.2. Those are the two best pitchers on the teams fighting for this division.

Hochevar has a 0.1 WAR.

On his own merits, regardless of the team around him, Luke has the talent and sheer willpower to get his team one-tenth of a victory.

The problem doesn’t begin and end with Hochevar. The currently active Royals pitchers with the most starts, minus Hochevar, are Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, and Jeremy Guthrie. The highest WAR among this group is 0.7, belonging to Mendoza. Guthrie only has a WAR of 0.1 since coming to KC. Which goes back to my claim of Guthrie not being an answer any more than Hochevar. Well, probably a little more than Hochevar, as Guthrie has seasons of 3.7, 3.8, and 4.3 WAR in his past. Luke has a 0.9 career high.

The key to fixing this rotation doesn’t begin with who we may or may not trade for or sign this winter. It begins with an amputation. The rotation has Type 2 Diabetes. Luke is the foot that has to go.

If Dayton Moore takes Hochevar to arbitration, he’s going to get a raise. I’ve seen estimates in the $6 million range. Cutting Hochevar allows us to redirect those dollars towards a better pitcher. Why pay Luke when it hinders the ability to sign a much better pitcher in the $15 million range?

The White Sox pitching staff has a combined WAR of 18.5 versus 9.2 for the Royals. Detroit has a 15.7 pitching WAR. It doesn’t take a complete overhaul of the Royals staff. But it does take one or most likely two very good starting pitchers. The White Sox have Sale at 5.2 and Jake Peavy with a 4.7 WAR. Detroit’s top guys are Verlander and Max Scherzer at 5.8 and 2.4, respectively.

August 17, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The math is simple. Subtract Luke’s salary and frustrating mediocrity. Add a high dollar pitcher who can post a WAR of 5 or more. Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, or Jake Odorizzi can do just as much as Luke, if not more, at a fraction of the cost.

Maybe Odorizzi breaks out. Maybe Guthrie sticks around and has a solid year. Maybe Duffy and Paulino come back strong for a midseason boost. We’ve got plenty of maybes…we need a sure thing.

The enigmatic Luke Hochevar (Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE)

Luke has a somewhat unusual and convoluted baseball history.  I’ll spare you most of the sordid details, but he was drafted three times, including twice by the Dodgers, signed with Scott Boras, fired Boras, hired another agent, signed a deal with the Dodgers, reneged on his deal with the Dodgers, fired his other agent, rehired Boras, and spent time playing independent ball before eventually coming to an agreement with the Royals as the first pick of the 2006 draft.  Not just the Royals first pick, but THE first pick of the draft.

And yes, 2006 is the same draft when Evan Longoria was selected as the 3^rd pick, Clayton Kershaw with the 7^th pick, Tim Lincecum with the 10^th, Max Scherzer with the 11^th, Ian Kennedy 21^st, …  need I go on?  Not that I would want him on my team, mostly because he’s a blowhard egotistical lowlife, but Chris Perez was also drafted with the 42^nd pick in 2006.

There are times when I don’t know if I’m more enraged at Hochevar over has maddening inconsistency and inability to live up to expectations, or with the Royals historical failure to accurately evaluate talent.  Either one is enough to drive Royals fans to pull their hair out.

Beginning with the Zach Greinke pick in 2002, most of the Royals first round picks have experienced moderate success, and many of these picks are on the roster now, such as Aaron Crow, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler.   Unfortunately, the fact that many of them are playing in Kansas City obviously hasn’t done much to improve the Royals win/loss total.

Earlier this season, the Royals gave up on Mitch Myer, their 2003 first round pick, Chris Lubanski (also 2003) and Matt Campbell (2004) never made it to the bigs, and Christian Colon (2010), Bubba Starling (2011), and Kyle Zimmer (2012) still need more time in the minors before we’ll know if they can contribute in Kansas City.  These athletes are all familiar to Royals fans as high expectation players, but the team has very little to show for it.

What about the Royals first round picks prior to Zach Greinke?  Do you remember Colt Griffin, Mike Stodolka, Kyle Snyder, Matt  Burch, Jeff Austin, Dan Reichert, Dermal Brown, and Juan LeBron?  Once again, all are familiar names to Royals fans (if you’re old enough) and all are complete and total busts.  You have to go all the way back to Michael Tucker in 1992 to find even a passable major league talent.

Luke Hochevar is the poster child for the Royals first round picks.  Full of promise, loads of potential, occasional brilliance, but infuriatingly inconsistent.  Picked as the opening day starter in 2011, his ERA was an abysmal 5.56 by July 9.  Then from that point on to the end of the season, he posted an ERA of 3.49.

Reports say Hoch wasn’t throwing his most effective pitch, a slider, frequently enough early in the 2011 season, using it only about 10% of the time.  So he changed his approach and threw it twice as often in the second half, and this is probably why his performance improved so dramatically.  Fast forward to 2012 and since June 1 of this season, he’s returned to only throwing the slider 11% of the time again.   If you know something is working, my question is this – Why don’t you use it?

Now here’s the real mystery – on August 21 when he one-hit the Rays, he only used the slider 8 times (7.6%), so maybe his other pitches are more effective than we thought.  However, 7 of the 8 sliders found the strike zone, and when the Rays swung at the slider, which they did 75% of the time, they whiffed on half of these occasions.  So maybe it IS his most effective pitch.  So I ask again – Why doesn’t he use it more often??  It’s a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Trying to figure out Luke Hochevar is like a color blind man trying to solve a Rubik’s cube.  It’s just darn near impossible and probably a waste of time.  But if you’re interested in some real hard-core analysis of Hochevar, check out this story at the Royals Review.

The Royals had some discussions with the Orioles this season about trading Hoch, but even when packaging him together with Jonathan Broxton, the best offer they received was former 5^th round pick from 2007 Jake Arrieta who sports a career 5.27 ERA.  Pathetic.

The story lines revolving around the Royals starting pitching would be comical if they weren’t plain depressing.  Bruce Chen as opening Day starter (yes, that’s comical to me); Danny Duffy, Joakim Soria, and Felipe Paulino all require Tommy John surgery (much more depressing than comical); the Royals recycle Jeremy Guthrie and he throws 500 consecutive shutout innings (well, not quite 500) and then surrenders 7 runs in less than 3 innings to the Red Sox, the Royals bullpen has more candidates for the 2013 starting rotation than the current group of starters, etc., etc.

But in my opinion, all of these story lines, and all the Royals pitching question marks and inconsistencies, and all the team’s concerns about the future starting staff can be summed up with one question – What in the world is the deal with Luke Hochevar?

Jeremy Guthrie at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

I can already see it. Dayton Moore made the statement several weeks ago that that the Royals will be going after pitching in the offseason (and for a while it looked like maybe at the trade deadline). We are promised some “real” pitching will be brought in. Here’s the part where they try to tell us Jeremy Guthrie is that real pitcher.

Well, let’s not be fooled by Guthrie’s recent hot streak, and more importantly, by the front office this winter when they tell us a big part of the rotation fix is Guthrie. He’s not top of the rotation talent. No way. Granted…he’s better than what we’ve seen here in a little while, but Guthrie is not the solution. The solution is bringing in a couple of guys who are at minimum number two starters in a rotation (in a REAL rotation – not in a typical Royals rotation).

I don’t mean to be completely down on Dayton Moore and David Glass – actually, I am completely down on Glass, but not Moore – there are some positives in the Guthrie situation.

The first positive is after we had given up on Jonathan Sanchez, and were ready to walk away; Moore was actually able to get someone to give the Royals something in exchange for Sanchez. I know…I couldn’t believe it either. I can’t even pull deals like that with the worst owner in my fantasy league. So we swapped out Sanchez for Guthrie, and landed a veteran guy who has had some success in the big leagues. And not just success against bad teams, but was good pitching against the lineups in the AL East. That’s a major victory for Moore, and helped our pitching staff tremendously this year. So we’ve got that going for us…which is nice.

The second positive is, going back to what I just said, the fact that this guy has had some great success against a tough division. In a rotation that features Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Luis Mendoza; Guthrie becomes the instant ace. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling him an ACE, but he’s the Royals ace, which is sad, but at the same time, adding a guy who is better than all your other starters can’t totally be a bad thing.

All that said, here is where Dayton Moore will fly us into the danger zone. He promised a fixed up rotation. And I don’t doubt for one second that Moore wants to fix the rotation and win…whether Glass will put up the cash is another story. So Moore, with his hands somewhat tied, will tell us (I can hear it now), “We really like what Jeremy brings to the table. He’s a solid veteran and great clubhouse guy, and we believe he will be a real contributor to the development and success of this team moving forward.” Then he will tell us that Guthrie could be our guy on opening day in 2013, blah, blah, blah. Nothing we haven’t heard before.

Here’s the thing – I agree with that, to a degree. He can be a part of the rotation. He can contribute, and he can probably be pretty good. He cannot, however, be a number one starter on a contender. Or a number two. He can possibly be a three, if Moore lands two pitchers who CAN be a one or two. Personally I would rather see him as a four, with Hochevar and Chen gone, but there’s a lot of work that would have to go into one offseason to make that happen.

Here’s the thing…we all know Glass will sabotage Dayton’s offseason by giving him pennies to work with on the free agent market. On top of that, we’ve already got Chen on the payroll next year, and I imagine they will bring Luke back as well (unfortunately). So if Guthrie is given a deal like that, the Royals are stuck. We know they will only spend so much on the free agent market, so why throw a big chunk of what the team can afford at a guy who ideally is no better than a three? It doesn’t make sense.

Don’t let this hot streak fool you, and don’t be thrilled when, because of this hot streak, Moore offers Guthrie a two year contract at $8.5 million per year.Guthrie is on fire, no doubt. Since coming to KC, he’s been the best starting pitcher on the mound since

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Zack Greinke left town. Guthrie has gone 39 innings in six starts. He’s got a 3.23 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and he striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings, while walking less than two. That’s all great, and that’s the kind of pitching we need to win this division. But don’t be fooled. This guy is not peaking at age 33. He’s not going to repeat these numbers.

I know, you’re thinking, “But he had some great years in Baltimore” (with the exception of one bad year where he posted an ERA of more than 5). Maybe he can repeat one or two of those years, especially in spacious Kauffman Stadium. But the facts are he’s not a high strikeout/low walk pitcher. He’s a career 5.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 guy. That’s about two less strikeouts and a full walk more than what he’s averaging for the Royals. That’s not bad…but it’s not really swing and miss stuff. We need game changers at the front end, not Guthrie.

I’m not saying the guy is garbage (he’s far from it), and god bless DM for getting him for Sanchez, but do you want Dayton’s efforts to fix this rotation to fall on Guthrie? I don’t.

And of course, the publishing of this article comes just after Luke Hochevar throws a gem…can’t you hear it now? Dayton Moore is on the radio, once again telling Kansas City that Hochevar made an adjustment and has turned a corner. That Luke and Guthrie will lead the Kansas City rotation to the Promised Land. I’ve heard this before in regards to Hochevar, and I’m not buying. Not on either pitcher. Not this time.

A night after the Royals only scored one run doesn’t help matters. Then, somehow, it worked out anyway.

Despite only scoring once for the second night in a row, the Royals pulled out a satisfying 1-0 win in ten innings, led by Luke Hochevar. On a night where two number one overall picks matched up with one another, Hochevar went pitch for pitch with Price. He looked fast. He looked commanding. If you were to know nothing of his career path to this point but knew he’d been the first player taken in 2006, you probably wouldn’t be surprised to see such a crisp outing.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Hochevar struck out ten – his highest strikeout total since June 5, 2010 – and walked just three while allowing one hit over eight innings. His ERA has fallen below 5.00 to 4.95. He’s had another rough season, but like last year, his second half has been better. I don’t think there’s ever going to be a time where Royals fans feel comfortable with him sustaining an extended stretch of dominance, but he’s shown that he can bring it out from time to time. In his previous start against Tampa, he threw his second career complete game shutout.

There was still some drama. After all, the Royals were up against Price, a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award this year, and he was fantastic. Every pitch was sharp and he struck out eight batters of his own in holding the Royals scoreless through eight innings. The Royals hit him somewhat hard early in the game but line drives went right to fielders. He only gave up three hits and walked none.

Once he left the game, the Royals were shut down by Fernando Rodney but got to Joel Peralta. Jeff Francoeur got an infield single to short and went to second on a throwing error, then a bloop single by Eric Hosmer brought him home. Kelvin Herrera threw a scoreless ninth inning prior to the Royals scoring frame, earning his first career win (though not without a bit of tension, as he and Hosmer miscommunicated on a grounder to second and Luke Scott ended up getting an infield single out of it). Greg Holland  worked a perfect tenth for the save.

The biggest downside to the night was the struggling Mike Moustakas. Granted, David Price is no easy matchup, but he toyed with Moustakas, striking him out three times. Moose got a fourth strikeout in the tenth against Peralta. He’s been off most of the second half after a strong start to the year. It hasn’t affected his defense, which is good, but there was hope he’d be past his streaky reputation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have another hot stretch to end the year, not unlike last season, but it has dampened his 2012.

Eric Hosmer, on the other hand, might be waking up a bit. Prior to yesterday’s game, he was noted to be hitting more line drives in batting practice and during the game, his swings were quieter and his front foot didn’t get away from him. He’s had bad plate discipline for much of the year, chasing the down and away pitch and teams are feeding it to him with regularity. Combining that with a longer swing has left him plateauing as he tries to progress.

Tonight, it looked a lot better, though, and he’s also been drawing walks. His average is up to .237 and his on base percentage has made it above .300 to .307 which is a step up, at least. He could still get into a groove over the last weeks of the season and, while it’s still disappointing, hopefully, he can get back into form and finish strong.

Tomorrow afternoon, Luis Mendoza takes on James Shields at noon before an off day on Thursday.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Royals fans are appreciating Luis Mendoza. (Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

Before the season began, the Royals were making a decision between Luis Mendoza, 2011 Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year, and Felipe Paulino, who was arguably the best Royals starter in 2011. For many, the decision was simple: Paulino was better. For others, like myself, it was a bit tougher. And that’s what the Royals faced as well. They saw the Mendoza that made huge strides forward and looked like a different pitcher from previous years. With Mendoza out of options, the Royals were concerned about letting him get away, a la Philip Humber the year before.

Well, Paulino went out with an injury and Mendoza took the fifth starting spot, joining Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Danny Duffy in the Royals rotation. In his first four starts, Mendoza threw 18.0 innings and compiled a 6.00 ERA. He was quickly moved to the bullpen, making one spot start in May, and was just so-so in his six appearances between May 6 and June 6, putting together an ERA of 4.91 over 25.2 innings. It seemed that Mendoza might be nearing his end in Royal blue, as he didn’t see many outings.

When the Royals needed another starter for their June 12 game against Milwaukee, they called on Mendoza, and he hasn’t relinquished the starting role. Since that start, Mendoza has a 3.27 ERA over 44.0 innings in seven starts. He’s only pitched fewer than six innings once, which is essentially the opposite of now-Rockie Sanchez. And he’s the Royals’ second-best starter since June 8, after Hochevar (3.06 ERA in eight starts) and above Chen (7.42 ERA in 9 starts). He’s become a valuable member of a fledgling pitching staff.

And some people didn’t even want him around.

We could never see the injuries coming. It’s not predictable. You can suspect, but you can’t know. And having those insurance pitchers around is potentially the most valuable part of having depth on your team. It allows you the flexibility to fill holes and find the best fits in certain situations.

In this situation, the best fit has been Luis Mendoza. I know not everyone will agree, but at this point there’s no reason to not have Mendoza in the rotation for the rest of the year. I was at the K to see his start on Saturday night, and I can say that I was impressed at his ability to induce grounders from the Twins’ (admittedly weak) lineup. It’s always good to see that ability.

So, enjoy Mendoza. He’s pitching well, which is something that’s seemingly hard to come by in Kansas City. If we have to ride him and Hochevar through the rest of the year, it seems we’re in good hands based on what we’ve seen lately. Let’s hope that’s true.

I’m just happy to see Mendoza pitch like I hoped he would. Welcome to the Royals’ starting rotation, Luis Mendoza. Keep fighting for that spot.

Will Hosmer have another series like he did last time the Royals played the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

KC and LAA haven’t seen each other since the first week of the season when the Royals took two-of-three against the Angels. Los Angeles won the opening game before Kansas City took the next two, my how things have changed during the year for both franchises during the season.

Season Series …

In the season opener LA won 5-0 in a well pitched game from Bruce Chen but it was Jared Weaver who got the win as Aaron Crow took the loss. Erick Aybar hurt the boys in blue driving in three runs during the five run eighth which was the difference in game one.

The next day Kansas City touched up Dan Haren en route to a 6-3 victory evening up the series. Jeff Francoeur went 2-for-4 driving in two, Eric Hosmer batting in the third spot was 2-for-5 which he scored twice with an RBI. Not to be forgotten Luke Hochevar went 6 1/3 innings allowing two runs with four strikeouts.

Easter was the last time these teams played with the Royals beating the Angels 7-3 moving to 2-1. KC struck Ervin Santana for three runs in the highlighted by Billy Butler hitting a two-run homer that brought in Hosmer. Country Breakfast and Hos combined for six of the seven runs Kansas City scored, Jonathan Sanchez picked up the win to show how long ago this was.

4/6 – Royals 0 @ Angels 5
4/7 – Royals 6 @ Angels 3
4/8 – Royals 7 @ Angels 3

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 9:05 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.57) v. C.J. Wilson (9-6, 2.82)
- Chen has two no-decisions in his last two starts for the Royals
- In his last start against the Mariners he left the game after 5 1/3 innings when Ned Yost might of left him in too long. Chen struckout six, allowing four runs on seven hits.
- Wilson who came over from the Rangers in the offseason will be facing the Royals for the first time this season. In his career he’s 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA against Kansas City in 13 career appearances.
Saturday, 9:05 pm – Will Smith (1-3, 7.97) v. Garrett Richards (3-1, 3.53)
- Smith who was drafted by the Angels in the seventh round of the 2008 draft will face his original team for the first time.
- Last week against the M’s he went 6 1/3 innings taking the loss giving up four runs on eight hits. He did strike out five walking just two Seattle hitters.
- Richards three wins have come against the Mariners, Diamondbacks and most recently the Tigers last week in Detroit. He went seven innings allowing three hits, striking out two with four walks.
Sunday, 2:25 pm – Luke Hochevar (6-8, 4.91) v. Jered Weaver (10-1, 2.20)
- Hochevar like Chen has no-decisions in his last two starts but the impressive stat is how he’s gone at least five innings in each of his last eight starts.
- Luke went seven innings against Minnesota on Friday night which the Royals lost 2-1 in 11 innings but struck out six without a walk allowing just a run.
- Weaver was masterful on Opening Night against KC and his only loss came on May 13 at Texas. Like Hochevar he went seven innings on Friday but picked up his 10^th win against the Rangers in Anaheim.

Luke Hochevar will open the series for the Royals against the Twins this weekend at Kauffman Stadium. Hochevar has been pretty good in his last six starts which hopefully continues. Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

The last time the Royals and Twins met was at the end of June up in the Twin Cities, Minnesota took three-of-four to win the series. Kansas City and Luis Mendoza held onto win 5-4 after Mr. Excitement Jonathan Broxton made things interesting. That weekend the Twins hit homerun after homerun to take the next three games by scores of 7-2, 5-1 and 10-8.

Season Series …

This season Minnesota holds a 6-3 advantage against Kansas City in the three meetings so far in 2012. In April the teams met in Minneapolis with the result being a split due to game two getting rained out. The first week of June was the second meeting taking place at the K with Minnesota taking two-of-three. Coming into tonight KC will try to snap a three game losing streak to the division’s last place team.

4/27 Royals 7 @ Twins 6
4/28 Royals @ Twins PPD
4/29 Royals 4 @ Twins 7
6/4 Twins 10 @ Royals 7
6/5 Twins 0 @ Royals 1
6/6 Twins 4 @ Royals 2
6/29 Royals 4 @ Twins 3
6/30 DH Game 1 Royals 2 @ Twins 7
DH Game 2 Royals 1 @ Twins 5
7/1 Royals 8 @ Twins 10

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Nick Blackburn (4-5, 8.10) v. Luke Hochevar (6-8, 5.26)
- Hochevar comes into this start 3-1 with two no-decision in his last six starts against Milwaukee (ND), @Houston (W), Tampa Bay (W), @Minnesota (L), @Toronto (W) and Chicago White Sox (W)
- During this streak he’s kept his walks down and strikeout totals high but the biggest positive is he’s worked past the sixth inning in four of these six starts.
- Blackburn has only faced the Royals once this season and he got the win on June 6 going just five innings. He was bailed out by his bullpen holding KC scoreless the rest of the game.
Saturday, 6:10 pm – Scott Diamond (8-3, 2.96) v. Luis Mendoza (3-6, 4.32)
- Mendoza was the tough luck loser on last Sunday against the White Sox going 7 1/3 innings in a 2-1 defeat.
- As mentioned his best start was at Target Field on June 29^th when he went eight innings allowing one run on five hits while striking out five.
- Diamond first career start against KC game in the second game of the last series when he threw the first game of the Saturday doubleheader. In the game he threw eight innings allowing two runs on six hits in 101 pitches.
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Sam Deduno (0-0, 5.59) v. Jeremy Guthrie (3-9, 6.35)
- Newly acquired Colorado Rockies pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is being tabbed as Sunday’s starter for the series finale. With Colorado Guthrie was 3-9 with a 6.35 ERA but here is hoping that a change of scenario works out for him and Jonathan Sanchez who part of the deal
- In his career Guthrie is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in eight career games against the Twin having thrown 46.2 innings. Another positive stat is his strike to walk ratio against Minnesota striking out 28 against six walks.
- Deduno is in his first season with the Twins, having spent the first two seasons of his career in the national league is facing the Royals for the first time. He came with Colorado in 2010 and was with San Diego during the 2011 season.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Any time Jonathan Sanchez has taken the mound this year it has been a guaranteed frustrating outing, and today was no different.

Sanchez walked six batters in just 4 1/3 innings of work while allowing 10 hits and 6 runs today, all earned. In a month that set up prime for the Royals to make a run at the AL Central lead, Sanchez has thrown 21 innings and given up 27 hits, 18 walks, 16 earned runs, and struck out just 14. Ouch.

A stretch of stats that’s normally reserved for the Mac Suzuki’s or, gulp, Luke Hochevar’s* of the world, Sanchez’s lack of production and perceived lack of desire or care has turned him into public enemy No. 1. With good reason. Each passing day that Melky Cabrera continues to perform above expectations, the once-justifiable trade turns more and more into a disappointing laugher. A laugher, in which the only real “win” for the Royals at this point, would appear to be a release of the left-hander.

*I know, he’s pitched better of late. His career numbers are still pretty ugly.

But that can’t quite happen, really.

One glaring weakness of the Royals roster is the starting rotation, and while a replacement in Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock, Vin Mazzaro, or others, might seem to be a viable alternative to the struggling Sanchez at this point, all of those arms will be needed to help out a struggling bullpen that’s being asked to take on a load that no other bullpen in baseball is being asked to do. For the time being, the best option for the Royals may be to wait and hope that Sanchez can turn things around.

Of course, that sentence changes, if they announce a move of Sanchez sometime soon.

Tomorrow the Royals send Bruce Chen to the mound in hopes of splitting the series against the Twins. The bright side after the doubleheader loss is that the Royals have still guaranteed themselves a winning month of at least no worse that 14-12. Rad flags still surround this team, like being outscored this month despite a favorable win-loss record, but back-to-back winning months is something to be proud of.

Also tomorrow the All Star Game rosters will be announced. Alcides Escobar, Billy Butler, and Mike Moustakas all have the numbers to justify their selection at their positions, so it’ll be fun to see if more than the requisite bullpen arm, charity selection, is taken from the Royals.

Sal Perez congratulates Luke Hochevar after his shutout. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Luke Hochevar continued to build on recent success, pitching deeper into the game than his previous two starts (which were the longest outings of the year for the team). He struck out eight, didn’t give up many hard hit balls and surrendered no runs for the second straight start for his first shutout since 2009.

Hochevar’s curveball was sharp, his two-seamer was hitting the corners and his four-seamer was sticking around 94 mph towards the end of the game as he threw 113 pitches in the shutout.

He looked completely different from the pitcher we saw in April and May. Poised. Tough. Hochevar reached a three ball count three times in the game, walking Carlos Pena in the first inning (the only walk allowed), getting to a full count on him again in the third inning, then reaching a full count against B.J. Upton leading off the fourth inning. He struck him out and didn’t look back the rest of the way.

I’ve been tough on Hochevar but he deserves a lot of credit for battling through early season struggles. He looked like the pitcher one would expect to see as a former first overall pick. The Royals say that he’s shifted to a simpler approach, going off of his fastball, curve and changeup rather than messing with cutters or sliders. If that’s the case, it’s working.

But it’s not possible to talk about a Hochevar start without including the phrase “for now”. It’s not the first time Hochevar has looked like he’s figured things out and in the past, he’s turned around and given away any positive momentum he’d built up. His next start could be in Minnesota, so we’ll see how he follows up on this start.

The offense was working tonight, too. The Royals scored five times in the bottom of the third and every Royal but Jarrod Dyson got a hit. Alex Gordon had three hits and Eric Hosmer had two, including a solo homer in the eighth inning. Alcides Escobar was 3-3 and now leads the team in hits with 78.

The Royals scored eight runs but didn’t walk once. They only struck out once though. Despite giving up eight runs, Rays starter Alex Cobb threw eight complete innings – the last time a pitcher had a complete game and gave up eight or more runs, Randy Johnson was still a Mariner (and was the pitcher who did it, too).

Bruce Chen goes tomorrow, hopefully to build on Hochevar’s start and his own 5.2 inning, one run performance in Houston.

They rebounded pretty nicely, though.

A return trip home was just right for the Royals, as they used late inning heroics to sweep the Brewers, take a series against the Cardinals, and unleashed a stifling mix of bullpen arms to get past the Astros. As they head home for the last interleague series of the year, they’re 7-2 in their last three series, taking their wins by a combined margin of nine runs.

"It ain't easy," Ned Yost might say. Photo Credit:

After Tuesday’s 2-0 win, the TV broadcast team noted a surprising stat. The Royals are second in the American League in shutouts. Even with a rough looking starting rotation and a slew of injuries, the Royals have reached that distinction.

This past week-plus showed one Royals blogger that this is a tougher team than we’d thought during their 12 game losing streak in April. In May and June (so far), the Royals are 25-21.

The result of the recent surge has the Royals five games under .500 and four and a half games behind the Indians in the AL Central.

All this without their long-time closer. All this with a struggling Eric Hosmer through the first two months of the year. All this with 10 different starting pitchers, two of which have had significant injury battles (Danny Duffy is out after Tommy John surgery; Felipe Paulino opened the year on the DL and is currently rehabbing for a return later in the month).

All this without their future franchise catcher.

It’s way too early to get worked up and start cutting paper for the parade on the Plaza, but it’s encouraging to see a team that looked like any other team from 2004 to the present for stretches of April make such a different impact as the season approaches its midpoint. Eric Hosmer started out with a surge in June but has cooled a bit. Still, he’s doing much better than he had performed in April and May. Alex Gordon looked to be regressing back to the same hitter we’d grown frustrated with, but moving back to the leadoff spot has worked wonders, as he’s gotten on base all but one game since and usually reaches multiple times a game.

Then, when their bullpen needed as much rest as possible – the Royals got about 70% of their innings from the bullpen in the last two games of the St. Louis series – they managed to get six innings out of Jonathan Sanchez and two (rough) innings from Louis Coleman. The following night, Luke Hochevar turned in a great start and ate up another 7.2 innings.

Now Paulino is close to a return. Now Salvador Perez is close to a return. Eventually, Wil Myers will have wiped out any excuses the Royals could make to say he shouldn’t be in the big leagues. Lorenzo Cain might even make it through this latest rehabilitation assignment.

Those are three good pieces for this team. Perez has been on fire during his rehab assignment and could be back up as early as Friday’s opener at home against the Cardinals. Paulino is about a week away, and Myers could show up at any time now that the Super Two deadline is projected to have passed.

It’s counting on a lot to say that the trio will lead to a resurgence, but Paulino was the best starter the Royals had before his groin injury. Myers has hammered more homers than Clint Robinson, minor league superstar and the former Texas League Triple Crown winner in 2010, in more than 100 fewer at bats. Perez offers a lot more behind the plate and with the bat than either of Humberto Quintero and Brayan Pena.

Will those three be enough to push the Royals to some kind of push in the division? They’ve gotten some solid starts out of Vin Mazzaro which has surprised nearly everybody and at some point, even with a taxi squad in Omaha, the bullpen could fade in the second half after so many innings.

The 2012 season has been a target of sorts while we wait out The Process. Some have jumped on Dayton Moore for being in year six of his rebuilding effort while other teams have made quicker strides. Setbacks have occurred, but it is frustrating to see teams turn things around much quicker. Still, the latest stretch has show the Royals that they don’t always need the biggest output at the plate to win.

"Can you believe this luck, you guys?" Photo Credit: Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

Most nights, three or four runs won’t be enough, but on some nights it is, fortunately. Right now, the Royals are learning how to make that happen. That’s a lesson that teams of the last decade never managed to pick up.

Now, though, it’s Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar on the field during these close wins. Its Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera holding the lead for Jonathan Broxton. Pieces of future championship teams are learning how to win the tough games – against National League opponents at least.

Here’s to hoping it sticks. Optimism is a fun feeling, even if there’s the conditioned twinge of skepticism still hanging around.

Hochevar is tall. Quintero? Short. (Photo Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

Much-maligned Luke Hochevar has struggled to make his season anything other than a failure so far, but it seems that he may finally decide to commence pitching and cease the belly-itching. In his first six starts, Luke compiled this sparklingly disastrous line:

28.0 IP;  39 H;  18 K;  12 BB;  28 ER;  9.00 ERA;  .385 BABIP; .336/.408/.474 line against

And that includes three games in which he allowed two runs or fewer. There were just three games in there that really, truly, wholly stunk. People were understandably angry. Luke has been predictably unreliable at certain parts of the game throughout his career, but the streak of little success wasn’t quite what I (and others) had in mind for him this season. Of course, when it gets that bad, you can almost ensure that it can only get better from there. And, well, it did:

50.0 IP;  48 H;  42 K;  15 BB;  21 ER;  3.78 ERA;  .321 BABIP;  .262/.335/.388 line against

That’s in the eight starts since the 2.1-inning, seven-run stinker Luke threw on May 6 against the Yankees. I’d say that’s a significant improvement. Wouldn’t you?

Of course, there have still been some rough outings. Still, in those eight games, Luke only gave up more than three runs in three games, and he’s thrown two shutouts, each over seven-plus innings. I wouldn’t say that he’s going to be that great for the rest of the year, but if he can hover around a 4.00 ERA, even if you don’t like the stat, it would be a substantial piece of work for the Royals.

I don’t really want to discuss the pitches Luke has been using, how it’s changed, or any of the other things I usually bring up. This is more about slow starts and staying around anyway. The BABIP through Luke’s first six starts wasn’t even that astronomical, and it has remained high through his past eight starts nonetheless. As I said, we’re just seeing how players start slow and can come back from the abyss when you think all hope is lost.

I guess this is just as much about the team as it is about Luke Hochevar. The Royals have been at 10 and 11 games below .500 this season, and are now sitting at six games under. They’re 4.5 games back of the AL Central-leading White Sox, and the rest of the Central teams don’t seem to have any interest in winning games. And we’re approaching the All-Star Break, which means that we’ll be in the running, right, David Glass?

They’re going to be in it by the All-Star break. It’s easy to look at the first 12 games and say we could have played better, and we could have. But it is only 12 games. We’ll get there.

So, it’s still out there to grab. Even with injuries, Salvador Perez will be back soon. Luke Hochevar is pitching better. Eric Hosmer has started to hit. The pieces are there, and there’s still time to put everything together and salvage the season. Since their 19-28 record after losing to Cleveland on May 28, the Royals have gone 11-8 and are creeping back to relevance. Don’t sleep on them or any of the individual players. There’s still a chance they reach .500. There’s always a chance.

May 22, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) in the dugout against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

I remember thinking about how the Royals might go about winning games with such a terrible starting rotation before the season began. It’s hard to win when you can’t pitch, and it looked like for a majority of their innings they’d be getting bad pitching. I thought then that with such a good offensive lineup they would need to win a significant number of high scoring games—6-5, 8-6 and so on.

Right now, the Royals are 23-30, not good, but not out of the realm of where most people thought they should be—especially considering the 12-game losing streak. But when I reflect on how they’ve won those games, the high-scoring battles aren’t ringing any bells. Why? Because they haven’t won any.

That’s really not fair; they have won one. Yes, one. The Royals record when their opponent scores 5 runs or more is 1-20. That’s not very good for a team whose lineup was suppose to carry them.

Now, obviously, the offense hasn’t produced as expected. They’ve scored 214 runs all season, that’s 4.03 runs per game. Eric Hosmer has been a shell of himself, though he’s shown some signs of life lately. Alex Gordon struggled early and is starting to turn it around. Jeff Francoeur also struggled early. The Royals also had an abysmal time hitting with runners in scoring position (though their overall team batting average is good enough for ninth in MLB, another piece of evidence to support the notion that BA isn’t everything).

The offense has been weaker than expected, but that alone doesn’t tell the story either. In Saturday’s loss to Oakland, the Royals got down early thanks to another Luke Hochevar-like effort by Luke Hochevar. They were down 6-1 after the fourth inning. I’ve heard players on this team say they have the fire power to come back from deficits like this, which is good because they’re going to have plenty of them.

It all fell apart though after the Royals scored two runs to make it a game at 6-3. At that point, it looked like they might actually mount a comeback, but they couldn’t make those 1-run innings 3-run innings. Then, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow, and some really terrible defense gave us a glimpse of Royals teams past, and it was over 9-3.

As those of you who watch baseball know, the game is played in context. Different elements of each game impact other elements of that game. Think about the rally-killing sac-bunt Ned Yost called for in the fourth inning tonight. That had huge ramifications throughout the game. That took a potential 5 or 6-run inning and made it a 3-run inning. If Yost had been thinking about how his team would probably need many more runs to win that game, he probably wouldn’t have called for a sac-bunt.

So, the issue isn’t that the Royals aren’t scoring a lot of runs—they’re not—but that they aren’t scoring a lot of runs when they need to. This isn’t necessarily a solvable problem, but it’s not necessarily something to be written off as unsolvable either. People would be very wrong in tossing this issue aside by saying Well they can’t control when the runs come. They come when they come. Not true.

Managers have a pretty good idea of when they’re going to have to play for 7 or 8 runs (anytime Will Smith is pitching for example). Maybe that means fewer sacrifice bunts or playing more offensive players on a given day. Maybe it means running less to wait for extra base hits, knowing that a stolen run won’t do much for you. Maybe it means keeping spirits high when the team is down by the third inning.

For players, this issue seems more psychological. Last season, when the team was 8-20 through 53 games when opponents scored 5 or more runs, it felt like they were in every game—even when they were down 5 runs. The same sort of “overcoming all odds” mentality is lacking this season. Maybe it’s because some players have struggled at the plate, and they feel less confident about their ability to recapture a lead. I’m not sure. But it just doesn’t feel the same.

Obviously, a team is going to lose more games than not when it gives up at least 5 runs. But for this very unique team, they have to win more high scoring games than they are currently. They have to feel comfortable playing from behind. With a bad rotation, that’s going to happen a lot. Yost needs to make decisions with this in mind. His mentality with virtually every starter, except maybe Bruce Chen and Felipe Paulino, needs to be one that focuses on getting into the other teams bullpen early and playing for big innings. Otherwise, this team will not flirt with .500 this season like they should.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

Butler raised his season OPS to over .900, but what’s better is the 11 homeruns and we’re not through the month of May just yet. The power, which fans have always (wrongfully) used against Butler to tear down his offensive credibility, is starting to show. His season pace of 39 homeruns is probably unlikely, but it’s still nonetheless encouraging that the “professional hitter” is professionally slugging as well.

Not to be outdone in the victory was the outstanding work of the Kansas City bullpen after Luke Hochevar failed to make it through the fifth inning.

The Royals bullpen has been abused all year. Called upon to throw the most innings in baseball so far (and 12 more innings than the next closest team) it’s a wonder how the group can be as consistent as it has been.

Despite a worrisome 3.69 BB/9, the bullpen’s 3.28 ERA is tenth best in the Major Leagues, and when you consider how many innings they’ve thrown without ever having the benefit of a night off, that’s pretty impressive.

The star of the group? Tim Collins.

After battling control issues last year Collins has rebounded to start 2012 with 34 strikeouts in his first 22 1/3 innings, and he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 7 outings.

Jonathan Broxton earned save number 10, improving his trade value just a little bit more.

With the win the Royals improve to 19-27 on the season and pull within 6 ½ games of first place Cleveland, who just happens to be next on the schedule. It’s a dangerous dream to dream, but a good showing against Cleveland and then struggling Minnesota, and the Royals can start to make some noise in the standings.

In our third episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we had the pleasure to speak with legendary groundskeeper George Toma. Toma shared stories of working the grounds at Municipal Stadium when the A’s were in Kansas City, working with Charlie Finley and an incident with monkeys let loose in the ballpark. No, really.

We also got to talk with John Sadak (@johnsadak) the voice of the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sadak discussed the progress of Jason Adam, Yordano Ventura, Cheslor Cuthbert and gave us his insight into the Royals High A minor league affiliate.

This episode also featured a rant from Troy Olsen regarding the reaction to the Will Smith start on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Chris Kamler, of course, egged him on. We also covered the plight of Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer‘s continuing slump and other Royals-related topics.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Bruce Chen will look to snap the Royals two-game losing streak in the series opener at Baltimore. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

When these teams met last Wednesday and Thursday at Kauffman Stadium, it was KC who was the hotter team having gone 4-1 on a roadtrip on the southside of Chicago and Arlington. Baltimore has been one of the early surprises of the season leading the AL East.

In the quick two-game series, Kansas City jumped out to the lead with the end result being Baltimore coming back late to earn the sweep. Game one went 15-innings which was highlighted in many Royals fans minds of Jonathan Broxton blowing his second save of the season and Nate Adcock surrendering a 15^th inning bomb to Adam Jones in the 4-3 Orioles win.

Game two again KC built an early lead with Humberto Quintero and Johnny Giavotella driving in the runs putting the Royals up 3-0 in the third. The O’s got two back in the next inning with Jones again hitting a homer this time of the two-run variety. Luke Hochevar who pitched well ran into trouble in the seventh inning after back-to-back singles (highlighted by Jarrod Dyson misplaying what should’ve been only a single).

J.J. Hardy who tied the game for Balitmore in game one, again came up with the big hit putting the birds in front for good. Aaron Crow who has been good in relief was unable to help Hochevar out walking Lois Esposito and Xavier Avery back-to-back loading the bases which culminated with Hardy’s hit.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 6:05 pm – Bruce Chen (3-4, 4.17) v. Jason Hammel (5-1, 3.12)
- Chen, enters this start having won his last three starts beating the Red Sox, at Rangers and Diamondbacks. He’s reached the seventh inning in each of these starts and averaging five strikeouts and 1.3 walks in these starts. Another thing helping is KC is giving Bruce run support scoring 4.6 runs compared to just an average of two runs in his first six starts.
- Hammel, Has been great so far this season for the AL East leaders starting 5-1 with two no-decisions. He’s 2-0 with a ND in his last three starts beating Boston and Washington while not figuring into the loss against the Yankees. In his last two starts he went five and 5 1/3 innings allowing 6.5 hits in his last two starts and 4.5 runs.
Saturday, 3:05 pm – Felipe Paulino (2-1, 1.42) v. Wei-Yin Chen (4-1, 3.35)
- Paulino, So far in three of his four starts in 2012 he’s not allowed a run, the game he did at Chicago he did suffer his lone loss. Felipe went seven innings last week against Baltimore but the Royals bullpen was unable to hold onto the lead. In four starts Paulino is averaging seven strikeouts which includes nine against the O’s last Wednesday and eight in the Bronx on Monday.
- Chen, Suffered his first defeat at Washington 9-3 in his last start for the rookie out of Taiwan. The six-runs he allowed were a season high and nearly a third of the 22 runs allowed this season. He’s been getting 4.6 runs of support in each start.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.61) v. TBD
- Hochevar, Sure I and Royals fans have had fun at the former number one pick expense but let’s give him credit as of late. In Luke’s last three starts he’s made it into the seventh inning and seen his ERA go from an even nine to its current 6.61 form. Also encouraging has been his strikeout numbers in the last three starts increasing with 5, 6 and 8 in those games.
- TBD, For now we’ll have to wait and see who Buck Showalter goes to if that is activating someone from the DL or calling up someone from the minors.

As the Royals finished their homestand, the Royalman Report added another episode of discussion.

This week, we recapped Fake Ned’s trip to Omaha and listened to comments from Storm Chasers General Manager Martie Cordero and pitchers Tommy Hottovy and Jake Odorizzi (who had debuted in Triple A on Friday).

We covered a lot of Omaha and minor league information, including Wil Myers‘s debut, Christian Colon‘s breakout, Mike Montgomery‘s issues and more. We also talked a bit about player development and the Royals and why some teams have figured it out and the Royals are still lagging.

Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas earned praise as well for carrying the team offensively – those guys are raking.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

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You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

*For those of you who don’t know what Polk points are, consider yourself blessed, but if you’re curious, click here.   

In this day and culture where technology makes everything possible, I’m ridiculously way behind the times.  I don’t have a smart phone, which, as of this week, now places me in the minority of American citizens.  I don’t have cable or satellite or Direct TV.  And as of last week, I don’t even have a functional TV as my digital receiver blew up.  All of these decisions—except for the receiver—are intentional.  Were I to completely buy into all that technology has to offer, no one would ever see me again.

I could easily watch movie after movie, time and time again, getting caught up into the plot and character development while learning how to tell a good story.  I would scroll through the listings to find which MLB teams were playing and then live tweet throughout the day about all kinds of games.  My phone would be the recipient of the majority of my eye contact during Royals’ games, as I would be attached to Gameday whenever possible.

I know myself and I know what is good for myself and the story I’m trying to write with my life.  What is good for me is to get away from screens and to spend time with real people who don’t know what BABIP stands for or aren’t in a funk because Royals’ starting pitchers haven’t been able to qualify for a win for the last two weeks (very slight exaggeration).

Yet I also know that baseball engages and inspires me to live a better story, to get back up one more time, to hold on to the hope of tomorrow’s game, and to talk with the stranger behind me in line and end up watching a few innings from his suite.

So, I’m trying to find the balance.  I’m trying to live and share life with others.  I’m trying to be a good husband and dad.  And I’m trying to not miss a single inning of Royals baseball.  Thankfully, my wife and social coordinator is very gracious and understanding of my obsession.  Sometimes, however, life happens while the Royals are playing.

Sunday, the Royals played the Yankees.  My oldest daughter’s piano recital was at the same time as the game.  Once I walked away from my car, I would be clueless about the story of the game.  I texted Mark first.  He responded a couple of times, until the Yankees went all Yankee against us and blew up the score.  After forty-five minutes of silence, I tried texting Mike Engel who always knows what’s going on.  But once Luke Hochevar experienced another mental-mound-meltdown, he too lost interest and needed a break.  Besides, he had bets to make with his woman about the upcoming Royals and Red Sox series.

I kinda felt guilty, like I was supposed to learn a lesson that there’s more to life than baseball.  As I was trying to learn that lesson, I was listening to beautiful music that was shaping the minds of the next generation while sitting with my family in a beautiful church.  It was the day we are supposed to slow down and breathe.  And as I’m thinking these thoughts my oldest daughter, the one who would be at the keyboard in another few minutes, wrote me a note.  “Dad, what’s the score?”  Validation.  I persisted in texting only to learn that the Royals were significantly behind.  My daughter rolled her eyes in frustration.  “I don’t like the Yankees either,” she wrote.  I must be doing something right, I thought to myself.

Fast forward to Tuesday night, Royals vs. Red Sox game number two.  My daughters are getting ready for bed and I’m sitting at the kitchen table watching the outcome of the game on my laptop.  My oldest daughter asks me to tuck her in and say bedtime prayers.  At this point, the Royals were losing 4 – 3.  We talked about the highs and lows of the day, pray, and as I’m leaving she calls out, “Dad, come back in a few minutes and tell me the score.”

Sometimes, my oldest daughter has trouble falling to sleep.  Such was the case Tuesday night.  In the top of the seventh, I peeked in and heard her whisper, “Any change?”

“Sorry kiddo, we’re still losing.”  She sighed and asked to be kept in the loop.

When Billy’s bomb landed in the fountains an inning later, I was convinced she was already asleep, until she walked down the hall to get a drink of water.  She returned to bed without saying anything.  Broxton worked a quick ninth and I turned off the computer to go read.  I stepped into her room and quietly whispered, “Billy homered.  Royals won.”  She smiled in response and was gently snoring a few minutes later.

On Wednesday night, I met SungWoo Lee.  Lee is better known by his handle “@Koreanfan_KC.”  He tweeted that he was trying to keep up with the game while at work, a sentiment I completely understood.  We messaged back and forth, and I learned that he started watching baseball on the Armed Forces Network for the express purpose of learning English.  He chose the Royals because he likes to cheer for the underdog and, well, they have been the underdog for a really, really long time.  Now, thanks to MLB-TV, he is able to keep updated on Royals action and learn English some 14 time zones away.

Huh.  How about that?  Baseball and technology working together to make the world a better place.  Simply amazing.

Baseball has been a significant part of my life for the last thirty plus years.  I’m trying to keep up with the times as a fan and learn the new ways to follow and support the team—tweeting during games, blogging my obsessive craziness, even writing a book about the boys in blue.  However, what’s more important to me than keeping up with the latest in technology is sharing life and stories with friends along the way.  And now I’ve got a new friend in South Korea, and that is better than any advance in technology.

Tonight marks the start of an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Mike Hershberger, a former outfielder for the Kansas City A’s during their final years before leaving KC for Oakland. Hershberger carved out a nice career, playing in 11 major league seasons for three teams as a well-regarded defensive player who patrolled all three outfield positions and had one of the stronger arms in the league.

Our second guest will be Lee Warren of Yahoo Sports. If you’re a regular listener of the Royalman Report, you’ll know that we like any opportunity we can get to talk with Lee as he covers the Omaha Storm Chasers. They’re having a great follow up season in 2012 after winning the Pacific Coast League title in 2011. You can check out past discussions with Lee Warren on the Royalman Report here (from June 26, 2011) and here (August 28, 2011).

Update: The Storm Chasers have promised us the opportunity to talk with one of their players before their game in Sacramento, which  will pre-empt Lee Warren’s appearance. 

Along with that, we’ll talk a look at the Royals of today as they come out of a successful homestand.

We’d love to have you listening, and we plan on a giveaway to kick off the show’s run, so you don’t want to miss that.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Pitching is still the focus of the conversation. (Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

We’re at the point in the season where questions are starting to come out, especially with the Royals doing poorly out of the gate. What’s up with Eric Hosmer? Can Mike Moustakas keep this up? Will we be scared every time Jonathan Broxton closes a game? Where is the god of injuries and how do we kill him?

The biggest questions have swirled around the rotation and its lack of ability to inspire any confidence. Just like throughout the offseason, we’re all wondering how in the world the Royals will make it through this season. Luke Hochevar is worse than ever. Jonathan Sanchez is, too. Bruce Chen looks like his luck is finally catching up with him (at least in his last couple games). Luis Mendoza has already exited stage right. At this point, we can lean on Danny Duffy and potentially Felipe Paulino to drag the team through the season, though Duffy has been showing his ability to pile up a high pitch count quickly and Paulino has pitched just one game since returning.

I hate second-guessing or debating decisions in hindsight, but it’s hard to not think about the Royals’ inability to land a solid starting pitcher this offseason. Now, we don’t know for sure how involved they were in any discussions besides the obvious ones before trading for Sanchez. We can’t say they did or did not do anything for certain. All I’ve seen for sure is that Dayton Moore never was that interested in adding much from a starting pitching perspective.

I, for one, applauded that point.

28 games into the season, it’s harder to make that distinct argument. There wasn’t a reason to spend money if the starting pitchers could be at least adequate. They’ve just been less than acceptable. We didn’t need to add another one because we had seven or eight true candidates to start. Now it looks like that number might be closer to two or three desirables. And we didn’t need to add more starting pitchers from outside the organization because, well, we’re trying to build up from within. Filling spots that prospects could take doesn’t make much sense. At this point, no one seems to be knocking on that door (though Mike Montgomery could be getting closer).

So, does that mean we go back and drag Dayton through the mud for not doing anything? Honestly, I can’t say that I can. I didn’t want to add much. I would’ve preferred one more guy, but getting a solid pitcher without giving up a ton, whether in contract length, overall value, or traded prospects, left extremely limited options, if there were truly any. And the Royals were confident that their multitude of in-house options, whether real or just a mirage, would provide more than enough possibilities should injury or poor pitching bring anyone down.

I just can’t go back on that decision and I can’t blame Dayton for not making a move. Hoch has never had such a poor stretch of games, so why would you expect him to? Sanchez has never pitched quite this bad, so you don’t think he will. It’s not something you can easily project or predict. If someone out there thought that Hoch would have a ERA of 9.00 six starts into the season, I’d be happy to hear of your Nostradamus-like ways. If you thought Sanchez would have more walks than strikeouts, I’d be impressed.

It comes down to whether you thought this team really needed that extra starter going into the season or whether you thought it was better to wait for a year when they’d be closer to contention. If you’re in the former group, you can be frustrated by what’s happening, though, again, you wouldn’t have even predicted this. If you’re in the second group, there’s no place to complain about Dayton not making a move.

This whole thing is representative of the season as a whole. We never expected to lose two catchers to the same injury. We never thought we’d lose two of our best relievers, and we never expected to lose our center fielder right off the bat. It was never supposed to be this way.

Well, things happen. Just ask the visiting Red Sox about the starts to their last couple seasons. Injuries happen. Bad starts happen. Unforeseeable things happen. Just like this historically bad pitching. You don’t expect it to happen to this degree, but there it goes.

So, let’s not go tossing around blame just yet. It’s May 8. It’s not August. If Hoch has an ERA of 9.00 in August and is still pitching, I expect us all to complain. At this point, there’s not much to do. Just have to ride it out and root for the guys, just like always. Just like being a fan. And if anything, start talking about Hosmer. If you’re going to blame Dayton, you might as well blame Hosmer, too, for all the runs he’s left on the bases (not that I ever want to have to do that).

I don’t like this span any more than any other fan. But it happens. It’s unexpected and it happens. If it keeps happening, there’ll be a change. They’ll deal with it in some way. Until then, we just have to find a way to make it through that doesn’t involve the blame game.

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May 07, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez (57) is relieved by manager Ned Yost (3) in the fourth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Today, I realized I can no longer do this.  I can’t be hopelessly optimistic about someone who has given me little in return to back up my optimism.  I was never a fan of the Luke Hochevar pick in the 2006 draft, but I sucked it up and tried to find a reason to like the pick and give my support for Hochevar.  First, let me state that Hochevar should have never been the 1st overall pick and because of his selection there, he is going to be the most scrutinized player from that draft.  It’s also hard to swallow that Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Tim Lincecum were all top ten picks that year as well, and were passed on.

While Hochevar hasn’t been bad every time out, what makes him so frustrating to watch, is the fact he is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game.  He’s had days of complete game shutouts and then he’ll turn around and have an outing like the home opener onslaught that a sold out crowd witnessed earlier this year at Kauffman Stadium.  A starter needs to be consistent, something Hochevar is not.  Yeah, Bruce Chen won’t dominate a line up but you can expect 6 innings and 2-3 runs every time he toes the rubber.  There’s peace of mind knowing what to expect from your starter on any given day.

That being said it really is time to at least scan around for other options to start in place of Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez.  I’m not sure how much longer their leash is, but it can’t be too long.  Sanchez and Hochevar combined have went past 5 innings only twice thus far this season.  Hochevar is now the 6th worst pitcher in MLB history according to ERA that includes pitchers with over 100 starts.  That’s an interesting piece of information that can be found here* along with the rest of the top, or should I say bottom, ten.  I tend to get a sick feeling in my stomach every time it’s Sanchez’s turn in the rotation.  I know 5 walks and 3 innings is very likely.  These two make watching the Royals a nauseating task.  Normally, I’m not this down on the Royals, but I hate seeing the starting pitching give these types of performances.

*It’s interesting to note Kyle Davies is right in front of Hochevar on this list.

Therefore, there may come a time relatively soon where a change has to be made.  Ryan Verdugo, Nate Adcock, and Everett Teaford are all guys I truly believe can give us a quality start just about every time out.  The most important things a starter can do is keep the team in the game and go deep in the game to preserve the bullpen arms throughout the season.  Jake Odorizzi is also an intriguing name that I’d love to see in Kansas City at some point during the season.

I really don’t like giving up on a player, but it appears as though Hochevar is not capable of overcoming his blow up inning more times than not.  I believe there is a lack of focus there, even though no one will come out and say that.  I’m sure he prepares himself very well and puts in the time and effort, but there is something with the mental side of his game that is just not adding up.  A guy with the repertoire of pitches that Hochevar sports should not be nearly this inconsistent and should be a top of the rotation starter.  It’s just very frustrating to continue to watch him and anticipate his blow up inning.

All I’m hoping for is this doesn’t continue.  Whether Hochevar and Sanchez figure out a few things and can pitch deeper into a game or Ned Yost finally makes a move and replaces one or both of them with a few candidates I mentioned earlier, something will need to change.  The starting pitching is the weak spot of the team but that doesn’t mean you can’t make changes to try and produce different outcomes.  These two are certainly not cutting it.

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Hochevar had a great second half in 2011. In 79.1 innings, he had a 3.52 ERA and 1.134 WHIP while striking out 7.7 batters per nine innings. The hope was that he would realize the potential he had that made him a first round selection twice in his lifetime.

There's a lot of pain associated with a Luke Hochevar start lately. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

I think it’s time to stop holding our breath. Hochevar has erased any progress he’d made last season and, worse, he’s not even performing to the level that he had been up to the midway point last year. He’s falling behind.

The legend of Hochevar goes way back. The Royals first #1 overall selection. The 80 pitch complete game. The 13 strikeout performance. The 31 straight batters retired. Along with those, though, are the blowup innings. And they’re coming with greater frequency, it seems.

The rough road started at the Royals home opener. Before many fans hit their seats to start an exciting 2012 season – Our Time! – Hochevar had given up seven runs. He hung in there and ate up a few more innings but was lifted after taking a liner off the ankle. He had two solid starts after that, but his last two have been awful. Against Detroit last week, he gave up five runs before he got an out, locating the ball so poorly that the Tigers pounced on everything early in the count as Hochevar left the ball over the heart of the plate. In 22 pitches, he gave up five runs and retired the side. That’s difficult.

What’s worse, to that point, Hochevar hadn’t given up a homer yet. In both of the first inning meltdowns, he didn’t give up a walk. Instead, he gave up 12 total runs on 14 hits. He didn’t walk anybody on Sunday in the big inning either, but did hit a batter. The homer drought ended though, and in the end, he’d given up seven runs.

From here, I don’t know where to go. I couldn’t trust him to be anything more than an inning eater in the rotation (assuming he can make it into the fifth, which he’s done in just half of his six starts). He’s always had that hint of “well maybe if something goes right” to him that could propel him into a breakout, but now, I don’t see that it’s coming. In the past, he could buy some time from the skeptics by having a good start or stringing a few good ones together, but the meltdowns have been so bad that the same faith can’t be carried forward anymore. He’s developing into Kyle Davies 2.0 which is not a good fate.

Maybe it’s a matter of adjustment. Maybe his ankle is still bothering him. Maybe he’s hurt in some other way but not telling anybody. Maybe he’s just in a slump like Ned Yost suggested after the game. I guess I’m hoping for any kind of sign that would allow me to keep from outright saying that Luke Hochevar stinks.

I’m running out of patience. At some point, I can’t give him the benefit of a doubt.

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After breaking down the weekend’s pitching matchups, we also discussed the state of the Royals, the nature of being a fan – regardless of market – and made our predictions for the series.

You can hear the full discussion on their podcast here.

The game that was scheduled versus the Tigers was rained out and postponed until Monday, Sept. 24, officially ruining everyone’s TV watching and Twitter fun for tonight. In doing so, the three-game series turns into a two-game set in which Royals fans can only hope Jim Leyland decides to give his ace Verlander an extra day’s rest. Sadly at this time, Verlander is still scheduled to go for Wednesday.

A positive however is the extra days rest this rainout gives to a struggling rotation, and the flexibility it gives to the team as Mendoza can head back to the bullpen in a long-relief role, in preparation of Felipe Paulino making his season debut on Saturday.

Mendoza already figured to be the odd man out of the rotation when Paulino returned from the DL, but being able to push everyone back a day allows Ned Yost to keep Bruce Chen on his regular rest for Friday’s game, and not have to scramble to find someone to start on Thursday.

Paulino’s return scheduled for Saturday couldn’t have come at a better time. The Royals pitching so far this year has struggled to the tune of a 4.58 ERA (good for fifth worst in all of baseball, an all too familiar trend), and even though Paulino isn’t known for going deep into games, anyone that can give them quality innings by limiting contact at this point is much needed.

What today’s cancellation also does is allow Jonathan Sanchez and Danny Duffy another day’s rest.

Sanchez was already pushed back a day for experiencing flu-like symptoms, so getting him another day to see if he can not only get healthy, but try and find a fix to the control issues that have plagued him so far this year, is much needed. He’s never been a control guy, but he’s never been this bad either. Sanchez will pitch Wednesday.

Duffy’s extra day couldn’t be better timed. Already having been skipped last Friday for experiencing “minor elbow tightness”, allowing Duffy to get as much non-mound throwing in as possible to work through his ailment is just what the doctor ordered.

For his start on Thursday Royals fans should watch closely because “elbow tightness” is never a phrase you want to hear in regards to one of your best pitchers.

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Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball players are a superstitious lot.  There are some superstitions that almost everyone follows, and there are some that are bizarrely unique.  For those of us who watched Tuesday’s game on TV, we witnessed Alcides Escobar wearing Yuniesky Betancourt’s shoes.  Escobar did have a hit in the game, keeping his average above .300, but the Royals still lost the game.

Some superstitions start at a young age.  Starting in little league, no one dares to step on the chalk foul line on the way on or off the field.  Maybe this is in line with “step-on-a-crack-break-your-mother’s-back” type of thinking.  However, there is always that one guy on the team who always steps on the chalk.  I have yet to observe who the Royals’ line-steppers are.  Maybe they need to work harder at converting others.

Another common superstition is not talking about a no-hitter for fear of jinxing it.  This subject was actually broached on the Royals’ Twitter time-line last week, about five minutes before Luke Hochevar surrendered his first hit of the game.  Rookie mistake.

Baseball players are people of routines and when they find a routine that works—whether it includes shirts, bats, and hats—they stick with it.  (Remember Roy Hobbs and his bat Wonderboy?)  Some players have lucky undershirts or a favorite place to sit on the bench.  Rumor has it Alex Gordon wore the same hat all season last year.  (Maybe he needs to find it for this season?)  These behaviors of routine are then transferred onto the diamond, as players us them to help focus and duplicate previous successful endeavors.

One of my personal favorite superstitions, the rally hat, started with the players and has passed on to us fans.  A rally hat is any hat worn inside-out, upside-down, with the bill pointed to heaven or to the guy behind you or in a multitude of other ways.  (A Royals rally hat is not to be confused with anything that the “royals” from the other side of the ocean wear on their heads.)  Come late innings, the losing team almost always breaks out some kind of rally cap to inspire on-the-field success.

Many players also have their own unique superstitions.

I have heard that when Reggie Jackson signed with the Angels after having multiple successful seasons with the Yankees, that he took his batting helmet with him, having  an Angels’ logo painted over the Yankees logo.

Satchel Paige reportedly had his pitching arm rubbed down with axle grease before every outing.  He believed it helped him to pitch nine innings every time.

Wade Boggs might take the cake as one of the most superstitious players of all time.  He ate chicken before every game and later published a cookbook of all of his chicken recipes.  He woke up at the same time every day (I wonder how that works in different time zones) and always took 150 ground balls during infield practice.  He drew a Hebrew word in the batter’s box meaning “life” before each at bat and would always smooth the dirt in front of him with his left foot while standing at third base.

With the Royals’ losing streak approaching epidemic proportions, many fans have tried to break the slump employing their own superstitions, and I am no exception.  For one game, I tried to comment on everything on Twitter.  The next game, I had a Twitter fast.  (Michael Engel was supposed to join me, but he broke in the seventh inning.  Weak.)  I have participated in L’il Frenchy’s “wear-a-different-Royals-shirt-everyday” and am starting to get strange looks.  I overheard one fan, who is an avid collector of Royals’ autographs, is spending time rearranging his autographed baseballs, trying to find the “right combination.”

What all of this comes down to is simple: we desperately want a win. 

I cannot help but look at the beginning of this season through the lens of Story.  According to best-selling author Donald Miller, a story is simply “a character who wants something and overcomes conflict to get it.”  At the beginning of every story, we are introduced to the protagonist, the leading character.  The first chapters of a book or first scenes of a movie show us the goodness in the character, enabling us to become emotionally attached to this character’s success.  Following the introduction to the character, we catch a glimpse of what it is that the character desires as well as the obstacles that the character must overcome in order to succeed.  The greater the desired object of the character, the more resistance he will face, the more demanding the obstacles he will have to overcome.

Let’s revisit the first few chapters of this year’s Royals story.

In the off-season, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all signed contract extensions.  The slogan of “Our Time” is adopted for the 2012 season.  Even in the middle of football season, people are talking Royals baseball.  The fan base is truly excited, believing that we’ll be surprised and rewarded on the field.

The obstacles start occurring even before the season officially starts.  Manny Pina and Salvador Perez both go down with knee injuries.  Joakim Soria is out for the season with his second Tommy John surgery.  Felipe Paulino has a strained forearm.  Blake Wood has an irritated ulnar nerve.

The season starts, and we quickly fall in love with our character.  The first time through the rotation, the Royals starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Lorenzo Cain impresses us in the field and at the plate.  The Royals’ win their first series against the Angels and come home from their first road trip at .500.  We see the potential.  We believe—Nosotros Creemos.

Round two of the obstacles:  Lorenzo Cain gets injured.  And, as of this writing, a 12-game losing streak.  No wins at home.  Zero statistical luck.  Double plays (and a triple play!) mean that there are runners on base and hard hit baseballs.  They just happen to be hit right at people.  Phenomenal reliever Greg Holland is placed on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his rib cage.  Moments ago, it was released that Cain experienced a “minor setback” in his rehab assignment, further delaying his return to the team.

Once the obstacles start coming, they will not stop until the want of the character is satisfied.  (Think “Lord of the Rings” or “Star Wars” or any good movie.)  This is the critical time for character development.  We learn how the character reacts when nothing goes according to plan, when the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.  In the middle of the pain of the struggle, the character is tested to see if he truly has what it takes to press on and continue to pursue his dream, even without any positive reinforcement.  Will he cave in to resistance or persevere through it?  This is the ultimate question.

If I were in charge of writing the story of this year’s Royals, it would go like this:

Slowly, the Royals will start winning, and slowly the players will return to the team healthy.  By the All-Star break, Cain, Paulino, Holland, and Giavotella will all be in KC and contributing to the team’s success.  The Royals will be in third place in their division, still under .500, but only by a few games.  After the All-Star break, the Royals catch fire, becoming the hottest team in all of baseball.  Perez will return to the lineup to guide the pitching staff into consistent and brilliant performances.  The team that walked through the valleys in April will be able to do no wrong.  And for the first time in decades, the Royals make it into the postseason.

The last time the Royals were in the postseason, I lived in Springfield.  In just a few weeks, I’ll be moving my family back toSpringfieldso my daughters can spend more time with their grandparents.  I’ll willingly join the ranks of the displaced Royals’ fans if this will help the Royals tell a better story this season.

For now, I’ve got my shirt on inside-out, the bill of my hat pointed to heaven, and my autographs arranged in the order of today’s lineup.  It can’t hurt.

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After a first run through the starting rotation went well – the group gave up just five earned runs over 30 combined innings – the second time through didn’t work out for Luke Hochevar (seven earned in four-plus innings), Jonathan Sanchez (five earned in 2.2 innings) and Luis Mendoza (five of nine runs allowed earned in four-plus innings).

The Royals need someone to step up and the candidates aren’t appealing.

Danny Duffy has the chance to be that guy. The Royals need a big performance – they need a “stopper”. Duffy faces Justin Verlander and the AL-Central-favored Detroit Tigers. After the home opening series, the Royals seem to be on the verge of another loss if something doesn’t change. In a way, it’s a great test for him and fortunate timing. Looking over the Royals rotation, they may be fortunate that it’s Duffy on the mound on Monday rather than anyone else.

Hochevar is notable for his inconsistencies. He’s shown that he can dominate a lineup at times. He went through a stretch of 31 straight batters retired in a row over two starts last season, and his 80 pitch complete game against Cincinnati and 13 strikeout, no walk performance against Texas in 2009 are often cited as examples of how good Hochevar can be at times.

Sanchez can be dominant too. He has a no-hitter on his resume and in 2010 had the lowest number of hits against per nine innings among qualifying starters. He’s a strikeout guy who can miss bats, but unfortunately, he also misses the strike zone. When he’s off, it’s ugly. He’s high risk and high reward, and on top of that he’s prone to high pitch counts per inning, so he’s not a guarantee to make it through six innings regardless of if he’s pitching well or not. That volatility makes it difficult to rely on him.

There are a lot of opinions on Luis Mendoza. Many think he’s capable of success after a changed arm slot brought him success in Omaha. Some are willing to look at his performance in 2011 and in spring training and give him the opportunity to prove himself. Others, like myself, just don’t see any one statistical area that suggests a new skill development (and in fact, his ground ball rate decreased in 2011 from its typical standing ). If he has changed his stripes, he’ll be one of the exceptions. In 2012, he’s had efforts on both sides of the coin. He held Oakland to one run over 5.2 innings but was hit around on Sunday against Cleveland. He’s going to have more contact on his pitches than most starters, which can result in more ground balls (he got 11 outs off 10 ground balls on Sunday with one strikeout). That can also result in more hits, and Mendoza has allowed 22 baserunners in 9.2 innings pitched – 14 of those are base hits. For now, it hasn’t been decided.

Bruce Chen is probably the Royals most consistent starter over the last year and change, but he’s got to have his location to be on and if he doesn’t he can get hit hard. He’s more of a fly ball pitcher which can be problematic. He’s done well in his first two starts so far after a rough spring.

Danny Duffy pitched great in Oakland last Tuesday. Can he bring it with him to KC on Monday? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

After a strong six inning performance where Duffy allowed just one hit and struck out eight, he can put another performance behind his strong words in spring. Duffy was one of the most vocal members of the team in discussing a chip on the collective shoulder of the pitching staff.

Duffy has been one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, and after a rough year and a half from Mike Montgomery, who had another rough start in Omaha, he may be the lone pitching prospect near the majors to take that “stopper” role on.

He has a tough matchup. The A’s aren’t the Tigers, and Lorenzo Cain isn’t in centerfield to stave off potential triples. The Royals have had trouble sustaining consistent rallies and facing Justin Verlander isn’t a good way to turn that around. Runs are going to come at a premium, which means preventing them is vital.

Duffy’s stuff was great against Oakland and it will need to be again. His curveball will have to match the sharpness he had with it on the west coast. His fastball has to avoid bats. All night long, he missed bats. He’ll have to have that magic again.

If he can, he’ll provide a boost to a young team that could use a hero right now. It won’t be easy, but it’s not supposed to be easy. The team needs to learn to hold off the long losing streaks that have plagued so many teams in the past. At times, they’ve had Zack Greinke or Gil Meche, but often didn’t have some of the offensive potential and strong pitching didn’t always receive great run support. Now, they have the potential to put up runs but need a player to step in to shut down the other lineup.

Duffy has that opportunity. If he succeeds, it’s something to build on. If he doesn’t, the Royals could be looking at these sorts of prolonged skids until someone figures out how to stop the bleeding. I think Duffy’s the guy to do it and Monday is his chance to show it.

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The Royals fell flat on their faces in their first series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Over the weekend, the Royals endured what could be the worst start to a homestand in team history.

They lost all three games against division rivals Cleveland. Luke Hochevar gave up seven runs before many fans had even reached their seats for the first time in 2012, then left the game after a line drive hit him in the ankle. Jonathan Sanchez lived up to his worst-case scenario and, despite a spirited comeback, fielding and baserunning errors took the Royals out of position to win a game they could have stolen. The momentum died when the team’s best reliever gave up two runs.

In the third and final game, the Royals brought a depleted bullpen into play and watched Luis Mendoza lose his control, leave the ball up, and ended up with Mitch Maier as the best pitcher all weekend.

In the end, the Royals scored nine and seven runs respectively in games 2 and 3 – and lost both.

They gave up 32 runs. Three different starters allowed at least five runs in one inning. The pitching staff nearly walked as many as they struck out.

So now what?

This was supposed to be Mission 2012. This is supposed to be Our Time, but the Royals have followed up a decent road trip that had their ERA under three to completely blowing up over the weekend.

For the sake of perspective, the Royals had never given up 32 runs in the first three games of a homestand before. The 2005 team gave up 20 in their first three games during a 2-6 start where they gave up a total of 48 runs. That team boasted an opening day rotation of Jose Lima, Runelvys Hernandez, a young Zack Greinke, Denny Bautista and Brian Anderson. They finished a combined 21-51 and Hernandez’s 5.52 ERA was the best of the group.

That team lost 106 games.

In 1981 and 1993, the Royals gave up 27 runs during their first homestands – but they were more than one series. That makes the Royals futility against Cleveland look much worse. They scored runs but gave up so many that they were fighting uphill nearly the whole time. They had a lead for two-thirds of an inning in the entire series, giving up six runs after Luis Mendoza retired the first two Indians in the inning. Four weren’t earned due to a dropped foul pop up that should have ended the inning (and a bad call at first), but he gave up a homer and hit after hit afterward. Can’t blame Hosmer or the ump for Mendoza’s pitching after the plays.

Nonetheless, it’s still very early in the season and nothing went right for the Royals this weekend. The biggest highlight of the series was getting a slight one-up over Cleveland in the bean ball wars (and really it’s one of those moral victories because the Royals didn’t win the game but merely got three Indians ejected).

The weekend was a baseball disaster and the young team will have to learn from it. How they fare going forward could depend on it.

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Luke Hochevar left Friday's start worse for the wear. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

That’s what I thought to myself late Friday afternoon as I watched the first inning of the Kansas City Royals’ home opener on DVR delay. What else was there to think as the worst case scenario was playing out before our eyes like a nightmare designed by Freddy Krueger.

It would be difficult to imagine a worse welcome for Royals Nation than the one provided by starting pitcher Luke Hochever. After a sellout crowd shelled out big bucks for tickets, gas, parking, food, drinks, merchandise, and carousel rides, Hochevar allowed the Indians to batter him like a speed bag in the first inning.

I’m barely exaggerating.

And the day started with such promise. The sun peaked out from behind the clouds. There was a packed house of fans brimming with optimism. Alex Gordon received his Golden Glove award in a pregame ceremony. The Royals obliged the will of the people by orchestrating a military flyover.

I was definitely jealous. And then Luke Hochevar took the hill.

Cleveland lead-off hitter Michael Brantley – riding a devastating 0-15 stretch – singled sharply to lead off the game. This was not a good sign for Hochevar, who has always struggled with men on base. In his career, he has allowed a robust .304/.372/.478 line with runners on.

Second hitter Asdrubal Cabrera sensed the blood in the water, ripping a double into the left field corner that put runners at second and third with no outs. At this point, Royals color commentator Rex Hudler opined that Hochevar could be suffering from Opening Day jitters. I foolishly (and somewhat desperately) accepted this theory.

Shin-Soo Choo didn’t bite, though, and knocked the runners in with a seeing eye single that slipped just under second baseman Yuniesky Betancourt‘s glove*.

*Yuni later booted a routine ground ball. Insert snide Yuni joke here.

Hochevar pulled it together long enough to strike out clean-up hitter Carlos Santana, although Choo did steal second on the strikeout pitch. When Travis Hafner grounded meekly to Eric Hosmer for the second out of the inning, the situation almost seemed palatable. A two run deficit is a manageable position.

And then Shelley Duncan ruined that fleeting moment of hope with one positively hideous, “oopsy-daisy” swing. Hochevar delivered a high 95 miles per hour fastball that Duncan tried to keep himself from swinging at. Only it was too late: In his effort to halt the swingm Duncan’s back foot had twisted awkwardly below his body, his head turned, eyes half closed. Of course, he blooped a soft single over the head of Hosmer, scoring Choo.

Casey Kotchman followed that up with a single, as Hudler acknowledged that Hochevar was finding “too much of the plate.” On his next pitch, Hochevar grooved a fastball to new batter Jason Kipnis. It couldn’t have been juicier if it was placed on a tee. Kipnis predictably crushed a shot to the center field wall, just over the outstretched glove of Jarrod Dyson, scoring two runs to make it a 5-0 game. Things were quickly spiraling out of control.

On the next pitch, Jack Hannahan ripped a single to center field to score Kipnis. Hochevar threw a wild pitch, and then Michael Brantley (you getting deja vu yet?) crushed a double off the top of the right field wall. 7-0 Indians. The dismal turn of events led to this rich exchange between the Royals TV team of Hudler and Ryan Lefebvre.

Lefevbre: “Not what the folks had in mind when they walked through the turnstiles today.”

Hudler (subdued):  “Not at all.”

That was pretty much that. The Royals tried to make a game of it, scoring three unanswered runs to get the score to 7-3. But they ultimately perished, falling by a final count of 8-3.

The story of the game, though, was that first inning. After that fiasco, the revelry dissipated abruptly.

To add injury to insult, Hochevar took a hard line drive off the inside of his left ankle in the fourth inning. Although x-rays were negative, He could wind up missing his next start.

So, yeah, Opening Day was a disappointment. But that didn’t stop me from watching the game. It didn’t stop me from appreciating doubles from Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler (he leads the American League!). It definitely didn’t stop me from being spellbound by the triple digit fastballs Kelvin Herrera was slinging to home plate.

Even in the worst case scenario, I couldn’t help from being drawn into the game. There are so many intriguing parts on this team. For the first time in ages – even with a couple of bumps in the road – it’s going to be a fun year to be a Royals fan.

There’s another game tonight, and I for one will be praying for the weather gods to leave Kauffman Stadium alone.

I need to get the bitter taste from last night out of my mouth immediately.

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