Butler has heated up at the plate, but still only has 5 homers in 2013. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I expressed some concern back in January regarding Billy Butler’s power numbers heading into this season…but I couldn’t have imagined a decrease as drastic as this. And it’s not just Billy, it’s the entire team.

I know, I’m not pointing out anything new here…but while this lack of home run power has been in our faces all season, it really hit me when I braved the heat and went to game 3 of the series against the division leading Detroit Tigers. When our big guns made it to first base, and I looked at Alex Gordon or Billy Butler standing next to Prince Fielder…it really drove home the point. Fielder has 12 homers, and just across the diamond I could see Miguel Cabrera manning third base with his 18 home runs. And our team leader has…6. Really?

Through Tuesday’s games, the Royals had a total of 32 homers (of course Cain’s heroic blast makes that 33). So that places the team dead last in the American League. The next worst team on the list? The Minnesota Twins with 54 team homers…so…we’re not even close.

What gives? The obvious thing to do is blame the pre-George Brett hitting philosophy. Was that the problem? It could be…we haven’t had a huge sample size since Brett stepped in on May 30, but it’s worth taking a look at.

The Royals played 50 games from opening day through May 29. During that stretch, the team racked up 28 homers (an average of 0.6 per game) and had a SLG of .375 with an OPS of .689. From May 30 through June 11 (not counting the June 12 game) the Royals hit 4 homers in 12 games for an average of 0.3 per game. The team SLG is down to .324 and OPS down as well, to .620.

Granted, both of these totals include parts of a horrible stretch of games, from May 6 through 29, which saw the team put up a 4-19 record, going from 17-10 all the way down to 21-29. Not good. However, even through that 23 game skid, the team still posted a .350 SLG and .646 OPS – better than the stretch since Brett came on board.

Brett’s brought a lot of energy to the team, can he help with home runs? Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Lets give Brett the benefit of the doubt and say it took him a week to gain any meaningful time with the batters. The Royals got hot against the Twins and from June 5 through 11 put up a record of 6-1. During that small span of time, the team has a SLG of .374 and .695 OPS. They still aren’t hitting for much pop, but the OPS is getting there, largely due to some patience at the plate and a little uptick in OBP. Still…not a lot of power, although it does SEEM like it’s coming around with 3 homers in that 7 game stretch (after Wednesday’s game, it’s 4 homers in 8 games). Two of those 4 belong to Lorenzo Cain, 1 to David Lough, and 1 to Sal Perez.

We’re getting a little more pop, and it’s not fair to single anyone out, really…but what about Gordon and Butler? The two guys we most expect great production from have not homered since May 9 and May 14, respectively. I can cut Gordon a little slack…he’s the type of hitter that just gets it done…singles, doubles, and so on. I think he’s always going to have a fluctuating home run total from year to year…and he could easily still hit 15 or so this season. Maybe more if he gets on a roll at some point.

Butler, though, is a guy who gets paid to hit and to drive in runs. And I will never question his ability at the plate. Look, the guy is a natural born hitter. Even if he’s not hitting for power, he’s at least HITTING. And getting on base at a .379 clip this year as well. His SLG, however, is just a shade over .400 (sitting at .402) and his ISO is down to .134 so far, which is the lowest number he’s put up since a .124 ISO back in 2008 – a season which saw him go back to Omaha for 26 games due to a lack of production. In that season, he only managed to hit 11 homers and SLG .400 in 124 games.

Cain’s got two homers in the last 8 games…will his power surge mean more pitches for Butler to hit? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t get me wrong, Billy is producing (or his BBQ sauce is, anyway). Of the everyday players, he trails only Gordon in OPS and leads the team in OBP and RBI. But we want to see Billy hitting the ball hard. If he’s not on pace to hit 30 (or 25, or even 20) “Billy Bombs” (as Rex Hudler likes to say), we need to see the 45 to 50 doubles he used to hit. Right now, I’d say he’s more on pace for 15 to 18 homers and about 35 doubles or so. Is that enough from an “elite” designated hitter? I don’t know. It CAN be, depending on the bats around him. And maybe that’s a large part of the issue…a lack of intimidating bats stacked up behind him. Maybe the recent power surge from Lorenzo Cain will translate into more hittable pitches for Billy…we’ll see.

Whatever the case, it’s been a perfect storm of things gone wrong with this lineup for a good portion of 2013. It’s not just Butler. Or Gordon. Or any one piece of the puzzle, really. Well…maybe Mike Moustakas. But as fun as this recent winning stretch of baseball has been, I’m not sure it’s sustainable without an increase in home run power.

How can KC compete with teams like Detroit, who can go yard at seemingly any moment? Yeah…the Royals just won a series against the Tigers, but if they are going to hang tough all year, we’re gonna need more power. We’ve seen a recent surge (I guess)…but the Royals are going to have to keep it up over the long haul, or we could (knock on wood) see another long stretch of very hard to watch baseball. But hey…right now, the boys in blue are winning…so I’m going to enjoy the ride.

*On another note, due to the lack of offense, Ned Yost finally let the “stat guys” have more input with his lineup construction of late. And, coincidentally, the first win of this 7-1 run started with that lineup, which is still in place today. Score one for stat nerds/sabermetricians everywhere. For what it’s worth, someone (not naming names here) came up with a pretty similar lineup a while back…

Cain and Gordon should start things off for this team. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Needless to say…something’s gotta give. This team has shown very little power and continually seems to either squeak by or come up just short. Lately the trend is to squander a good outing by one of the starting pitchers. I think we can all agree that James Shields should have better than a 2-2 record.

If you go back and look at my last dissection of the batting order, you’ll see I used some of the more modern (nerdy? No, I don’t live in my mom’s basement) ways of thinking when stacking the guys up from 1 through 9. I did a simple breakdown at the time, just looking at building one “master” lineup…but the way these guys are hitting – it might be time to consider not only a shuffle in the order, but some platoons. Once again, I’ll lean on ideas borrowed from The Book. And away we go…

I still believe your best hitters should be in the 1, 2, 4, and 5 positions. With the thought that your leadoff guy should have the highest possible OBP, and the way these guys are hitting…I think our new leadoff guy should be Lorenzo Cain. I’m not making this move lightly, as I’ve been a proponent of Gordon as the leadoff guy…but Gordon is flashing some power and Cain is getting on base more often. I’d stick Gordon in the next spot, though…not moving him too far from that top spot in the lineup.

Moose is heating up…is he ready to bat third? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the top two spots settled, I think our cleanup guy is obviously Billy Butler. After getting off to a pretty slow start, Butler now leads the team in OBP and is third, behind Cain and Gordon, in OPS (these numbers do NOT reflect Wednesday’s game, by the way). But he’s coming on strong.

Our third hitter is a bit tougher to peg. We’ve got Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer as the next best hitters in this lineup. Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur, to the surprise of absolutely no one, bring up the rear and are the most likely candidates to at least be platooned, if not completely replaced, at some point.

The fourth best OPS belongs to Escobar, then we have Perez, and Hosmer. Moose is currently last on the list…but after another pretty impressive game Wednesday night, I think it’s a matter of time before he leapfrogs his way into the mix.

I may be crazy – but combining the way he’s been hitting of late with what is expected of him, I’d put Moose in that third spot versus RHP. Then I think you have to go with (after Butler at cleanup), Perez and Hosmer at 5 and 6. What about Escobar? If he’s not going to hit second anymore, I just can’t see him anywhere from 3 through 6, so we’ll put him at 7. After that, we go with Dyson rather than Frenchy (versus RHP) and then some kind of platoon with Getz and Johnson.

So the lineup versus RHP goes like this:

Lorenzo Cain RF

Alex Gordon LF

Mike Moustakas 3B

Billy Butler DH

Sal Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jarrod Dyson CF

Chris Getz/Elliot Johnson 2B

When I switch it up and fill out the lineup card against southpaws…I think we have to make a few changes. First of all – for the time being, I’m not sure you play Moose versus lefties. And if you do, I don’t think you can bat him third. I’d also go with Frenchy over Dyson in this lineup, and give Elliot Johnson the definite nod at second base, with Tejada getting some time when Moose does play.

With that being said…I think our lineup versus LHP shakes out like this:

Lorenzo Cain CF

Alex Gordon LF

Sal Perez C

Billy Butler DH

Miguel Tejada/Mike Moustakas 3B

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jeff Francoeur RF

Elliot Johnson/Miguel Tejada 2B

It’s not a radical shakeup by any means, but it is different – both from my initial idea weeks ago and from what we’ve seen on a daily basis courtesy of Yost. It puts our hitters in (arguably) the right spots, while giving the team a legitimate power threat in that cleanup spot. Cain hasn’t flashed a lot of home run power just yet (I do think it will come) and would be allowed to get on base for Gordon, who was slugging at a .484 clip before hitting another homer Wednesday. Those first two spots are now filled by all-around batters who can work the count, drive the ball, run a bit (Cain can run a LOT), and have a knack for coming up with big hits.

Escobar batting lower in the order gives some protection to Hosmer, who would be batting just ahead of him. Hosmer has a good OBP at .343, but has yet to hit for any power. He won’t generally kill a rally though, and if he can get on base Escobar has a decent shot of following with a hit of his own. Another benefit to moving Escobar down – he’s grounding into a lot of double plays this season, leading the team with 7 so far. Would you rather have him killing a rally with Dyson or Frenchy on deck, or with Butler (or, according to what I’ve sketched out – Moose or Perez) waiting to bat?

When all is said and done, this team still won’t succeed by slugging a combined .390, but a slight shuffle might give them a better chance at scraping together 5 runs instead of 3. Then we just have to hope a couple of these guys start hitting the long ball.

What do you think? Am I nuts? How would you stack the order?

The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

Then there are the battles for open spots. Second base keeps coming up as Johnny Giavotella and Chris Getz do their dance once again, and the backup catcher and last bullpen spots are up for grabs as well. Most projected lineups have the second baseman – whether it be Getz or Giavotella – batting last and the backup catcher and last guy in the bullpen aren’t make or break decisions.

What gets overlooked are the players in the middle. The ones that aren’t absolutely vital but are comfortably established in their role. The expectations aren’t high but they’re expected to still perform well. Aaron Crow is one example, perhaps Luis Mendoza, too. But to me, Lorenzo Cain has gone unheralded during spring training.

Mar 18, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) singles during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

What’s come up in discussion is his injury history, and it has to. He’s missed enough time at various levels of professional baseball that it can’t be ignored or dismissed as a concern. But lost in that discussion is the opportunity the Royals have in a strong season from Cain. Consider this: in 2012, despite missing three and a half months, Cain still accumulated 1.9 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR. Both counts placed him sixth among non-pitchers in WAR in only 61 games. You can’t make such a simple projection, but just say you double his counting stats and pretend like he played 122 games and Cain “hits” .266/.316/.419 with 14 homers, 20 stolen bases, and 62 RBI. Not bad.

That sort of line could be his floor over the next few seasons. He hits enough line drives to maintain a decent average, has enough power to hit the ball out, and his speed allows him to cause problems on the basepaths. His swing can get long so he may be more streaky than the Royals would like, and I’d prefer he take a walk more often so his on base percentage wasn’t so dependent on his bat, but there’s room to improve on his baseline. With good health and perhaps a slight adjustment, he may be able to speed up his bat and make more contact.

He’s showing this spring (and the typical spring training disclaimer applies) that he’s at least willing to take a walk. In 61 games last season, he walked 15 times. He’s walked eight times in 17 games this spring. That’s much better, especially since spring is a more free-swinging time. His OppQual from Baseball-Reference is around 9.0, suggesting that he’s facing players closer to the big leagues. On Wednesday, Cain homered, his first of the spring. He has a .474/.565/.684 line in 46 plate appearances. Even with a small sample size, that’s a good stretch of ridiculous production from a center fielder.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) reacts after a double in the fifth inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Even if Cain’s biggest contribution comes from his defense, a close-to-average season at the plate is going to give him the opportunity to be a valuable part of the team. He has great range and good instincts and a good arm, especially in center. With good health, he’ll be an asset up the middle. If he can develop as a hitter and be even better, he’ll stand out. Cain models his game after Torii Hunter, and Royals television broadcasts have gone so far as to show both batters in a split screen to display the similarities between the two. The Royals may not be able to ask for Hunter’s 2001-2012 average line of .278/.337/.475 and 24 homers from Cain, but that might be his ceiling and Cain will add more stolen bases as well.

That works out to a lot of value for the Royals. Cain is entering his peak years (he turns 27 two weeks into the season) so the time is now for his contribution. He has to stay healthy, but if he does, he could be a 3-4 WAR player at a premium defensive position. He could be enough of an offensive producer to capably fill in in right field should Jeff Francoeur falter and other options aren’t explored. Amid all the prospect follow up and starting rotation breakdowns, there’s Lorenzo Cain right under everyone’s nose.

Already this spring, Cain’s dealt with a hand injury that caused him to miss early games, but he hasn’t had any setbacks or new injuries. Yet. If that continues to be the case, Cain could be a pleasant breakout player in the Royals lineup.

KC is counting on a healthy Cain in 2013. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

“Not again,” seems to be the loudest groan heard from Royals fans via the internet. We are barely into spring training, and Lorenzo Cain, 2012′s oft-injured center fielder, is already hurt again.

Fans are worried with somewhat good reason, as Cain’s first full season (well, not if you count all the injuries) in KC saw him injured, re-injured, and injured yet again in 2012. This wasn’t the introduction to Royals fans Cain had hoped for, and has resulted in a reputation as an injury prone player. Fairly or not, fans have labeled him and are already starting to pile on.

Has Cain earned his new “paper doll” reputation? It would appear, from his history in pro ball, that he has not. Looking back over his career (mostly in the minor leagues) it seems Cain has been a pretty sturdy, reliable player. In 2006, he had 603 plate appearances, followed by seasons with 533 and 550 trips to the plate in 2007 and 2008. The first drop in playing time for Cain came the following year, as he only tallied 232 PA in 60 games. In 2010, he was back on track playing 84 games while splitting time in AA and AAA, then playing another 43 for the Brewers after a promotion to the big leagues.

The following winter, Cain was traded to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke deal. He spent 2011 in Omaha and managed to play 128 games and getting to the plate 549 times that season (adding another 23 PA in 6 games for the Royals that year).

This track record shows that over the course of seven professional seasons, Cain only missed significant time once (2009). But, for most fans, what they see is what they believe. The average fan doesn’t know, and doesn’t care, what Cain did in the past. Their introduction to Cain came in 2012, and it wasn’t pretty. Groin, hamstring, and hip injuries kept Cain out of commission for the better part of the season, as he only managed to play 61 games. Starting off 2013 with an injury (no matter how minor) is going to send up a red flag.

Jarrod Dyson – Plan B. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Should fans be worried, though? Should Cain be stamped “fragile”? Honestly…it’s hard to say. There are guys in every sport who seem to have a knack for hurting themselves. I have a feeling in this case, though, judging from what I’ve seen reported, this latest injury to the hand is nothing to lose sleep over. Just a bit of bad luck that happened to – let’s face it – the last guy on this roster who needed yet another injury. Another bit of bad luck that gives fans reason to be skeptical.

I’m going to hold off on judgment at this point. Cain’s history is that of a pretty durable outfielder. His 2012 string of injuries were to his legs. This latest injury (if we can really call it that, at this point) is to his hand. While I’d prefer not to have to address an injury at all, at least it’s not a re-injury of something from last year. Seems to me it’s just a bit of bad luck. Let’s hope so…because Cain looks much better roaming center field than he does as a name on the disabled list. Just in case, though, let’s hope Jarrod Dyson is ready to play some ball.

Bummer, Lorenzo. Bummer. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

Today, the Royals learned the outlook and it’s not very good. Cain has a hamstring strain in his right leg.

Cain opened the year with a clear shot at the everyday center fielder job after Melky Cabrera was traded and showed great defense early in the year, but on a fateful catch in Oakland, he ended up with a hip flexor that kept him out until mid-July. After he came back, he hit well enough to bat third or leadoff a handful of times and his line today is .266/.316/.419 with seven homers and ten steals in ten attempts. Not bad for 61 games, especially considering his defensive value and athleticism.

To fill his spot on the roster, the Royals brought back Jason Bourgeois from Omaha, and Bob Dutton reports that the plan is to platoon he and David Lough while Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur man the corners. Jarrod Dyson is limited to pinch-hitting and -running duties due to a lat injury that prevents him from throwing (and he didn’t have much of an arm to begin with).

At this stage, the Royals probably have to think about a Cain/Lough platoon going into next year (unless Wil Myers ends up in center with Francoeur staying in right and Cain coming off the bench). While Cain is a great athlete, he’s also been prone to injury. Not only was there his hip injury earlier in the year, but he had a groin injury starting off 2011 with Omaha and had knee troubles in 2009 after attempting a diving play.

Cain makes a lot of plays and his speed and occasional power are an asset to a lineup, but they’re only good if he can get out on the field. The Royals may try to spell him more often the rest of this season (if he plays again this season at all) and next year. He hustles and makes a lot of plays.

Sometimes, though, the kamikaze approach leads to injury (however, incidentally, Cain didn’t miss any time after making the above catch in 2010 for Milwaukee).

What’s probably best for him this year is to keep him on the shelf and let him get a full recovery.

Cain, a 26 year old center fielder, put up some great numbers with the Brewers in 2010,

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after hitting a two run home run in the ninth inning against the Chicago White Sox. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

playing stellar defense and putting up a .743 OPS in 43 games. I was pretty excited to see him come over in the Zack Greinke deal, and was disappointed when he spent 2011 in Omaha (although with good reason, given how our outfield performed).

Heading into 2012, with Melky Cabrera out of the way, I looked forward to seeing Cain roaming the outfield and playing some exciting baseball. Unfortunately, a hip flexor injury sidelined him, and from what I’ve read, is probably still bothering him to a degree. I don’t think we’ve seen him play to his full ability yet in KC although, even at less than 100%, he still looks pretty smooth roaming center field.

I’ve been keeping an eye on Cain, trying to figure out what we have here, by comparing to him some old Royals. What I’m hoping is that he is comparable to one of my favorite players of all time, Amos Otis.

Cain is much bigger at 6’2 and 200 pounds vs. 5’11 and 165 for Otis, but he appears to have a similar skill set and an equally smooth way of playing the game. Otis was a more proven commodity at age 26, having his breakout season when he was just 23, but something about Cain makes me think he could be a similar player.

5 time All-Star, 3 time Gold Glove winner Amos Otis

In his best years with the Royals (1970-79) Otis averaged 146 games per season, with 29 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, and 29 steals while putting up a solid .798 OPS. During that same stretch, he also averaged a WAR of 3.8, with 4.1 on offense and -0.3 on defense (I find it hard to believe he had a negative defensive WAR, but so be it).

Cain has seen limited major league time so far, with only 109 games over parts of three seasons. Adding up his totals for that 109 games, he’s put up some decent numbers with 20 doubles, 3 triples, 8 homers, 16 steals, and a .735 OPS. Not quite up to the numbers Otis put up, but not bad either. Over that 109 game stretch, Cain has put up a WAR of 3.5, falling just short of the 3.8 Otis averaged.

Looking at the WAR numbers, Cain might be a little better than Otis in the field, which I think will be more apparent once he’s had time to heal this winter, and we may see more plays like THIS.

I’m not sure if he’s got the speed of Otis, but he’s much bigger, and I think will hit for more power. Taking what he’s averaged in 60 games and 240 plate appearances this year and projecting it out over 140 games (the Royals have played 142), Cain would have something along the lines of 19 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, and 21 steals in 560 plate appearances. On the downside, he’d project out to only 33 walks with 128 K’s. Ideally, you’d like to see a little more patience here and a higher OBP.

If the Royals get anything near the production Otis put up in the 1970′s, we could witness some all-star caliber play from Cain, and may have an outfield in Gordon, Cain, and Wil Myers that rivals that of Beltran, Damon, and Dye. Of course, like those teams in the late 90′s and early 2000′s, the offense will only take us as far as our pitching…but that’s another story.

Hope springs eternal.  In the chest of all long suffering fans beats an optimistic heart, one that yearns for his or her team to succeed and looks forward to the day when they can celebrate the same championship they’ve watched others enjoy for years.  Occasionally, there will be substance behind the hope and evidence that this year could be different, this could be the year we finally break through.

As you know, this season was “Our Time” and many of us believed 2012 would mark a turning point toward respectability.  Many of the talented young players we’ve watched growing up in the best farm system in baseball were finally arriving in the major leagues and Dayton Moore’s plan was coming together.  If you’ll admit it, I bet you were thinking the Royals would play well this year.  Few of us believed they were playoff bound in 2012, but almost all of us were confident other teams would not be looking past KC this season.

Then something happened.  I’m not sure if any of us know exactly what happened, but something happened.  The Royals play in a weak division which allowed them to remain competitive with a mediocre record and this motivated us to hold onto hope.  But now, only the most die-hard fan still believes the Royals have a shot at the playoffs.  Oh yes, we all still root for them and cheer them on and sit on the edge of our seats shouting for another victory…  but we’ve become realists and we know we won’t be watching the boys in blue this October.  Again.

When did this happen?  When exactly did the Royals 2012 season go off the rails?  If could have been at any one of many twists and turns in the road, and each of us might point toward a different event that caused it.  Here are a few candidates for the prime pothole that caused the Royals train to jump the track:

Pick a Date:  Injuries – There have been so many devastating injuries that have impacted the Royals that I can’t select one date.  At the major league level, the Royals lost Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain for approximately the first half of the season.  Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria have undergone Tommy John surgery.  Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have been on-again and off-again with various injuries.  Other Royals have likely played hurt because the team couldn’t afford to lose another player.  Is it possible that one of these injuries could have cut the cord on the Royals’ season?

March 26:  Part of the excitement about 2012 surrounded the youth movement in KC.   The decision to leave Johnny Giavotella in Omaha and play a platoon of Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz probably wasn’t the key factor that derailed the Royals season, but I would say it was a telling sign of things to come and questionable decisions that would be made by the Royals brass.

Jonathan Broxton's April 11 meltdown is one of the candidates when looking for the reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April 11:  Broxton’s first meltdown, and it was a classic.  Two walks, two hit-by-pitches, two runs scored, Broxton’s first blown save of the year, and the A’s didn’t even need a hit.  This was the first real splash of cold water I experienced following an off-season and Spring filled with hope and expectation.

April 14:  Chris Perez’s Twitter rant and victory over the Royals following an onfield melee.  I believe Perez’s tweet somehow motivated the Indians and demotivated the Royals.  This was just the 3^rd loss in the 12 consecutive loss streak and we all discovered the Royals were apparently a fragile team.  I work with an Indian fan and wow is it annoying when he defends Chris Perez, aka one of the biggest jerks in professional sports.  Here’s what Perez said on Twitter on April 14:

@chrisperez54 Huge team win tonight; time for a sweep to tell the Royals it’s not “Our Time”, it’s#TribeTime. P.S. You hit us, we hit you. Period.

April 24:  The 12^th loss of the 12 game losing streak occurred on April 24.  Many fans will point to this streak and complain that the Royals season ended almost before it began.  I have a difficult time arguing against this rather valid point, but still, the Royals fought back to within 4 games by the halfway mark, so I don’t think the streak completely derailed the season, but it certainly threw a gigantic roadblock in the way.

Eric Hosmer's season long slump is another reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE)

May 16:  Hosmer was under the Mendoza line almost by the time the first week of the season ended.  But most of us thought it was just a rough patch and he would pull out of it by mid-April.  Then we thought he’d be ok by early May, and then we thought for sure by the end of May he’d be swinging the bat well.  We were wrong.  On May 16 in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, Hosmer walked to the plate 7 times and came away with zero hits, ending the game with a .174 average.  Yost took him out of the lineup the next two days.  By this time, we all knew Hosmer’s slump had become more than just a run of bad luck, and more importantly Ned Yost knew it too.  If any of your players goes through a prolonged slump, it negatively affects the team.  But if the team’s presumed star goes through a slump that so far has lasted for more than half the season, it’s extremely difficult for the team to overcome and could be a cause for that team’s playoff hopes to go off the rails.

June 30:  The Royals had climbed to within 4 games of .500 and were starting to open some eyes across the league.  Then without warning… THUD.  The worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins, took both games of a doubleheader from the Royals, and the team hasn’t sniffed .500 ever since.

July 2:  Robinson Cano omits Billy Butler from the home run derby.  I realize that this decision by the liar Cano has nothing to do with the Royals on-field performance, but it says everything about the respect we have across the league – none.  And occasionally, lack of respect can affect your psyche, which impacts your performance, etc., etc.

Which incident do you say was the cause of the Royals season to derail, or do you point to a different event, or a combination of events?  I suppose there are still many games to play during the long baseball season, and as they say, “it’s not over ‘till it’s over.”  But no matter what happens, I know “the Royals will get ‘em next year!”

Alex Gordon will look to continue his recent hot streak as the Royals visit Seattle for the only time this season. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

As mentioned the M’s were at the K just last week when they took three of four against Kansas City. Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki earlier this week to the New York Yankees, who went 7-for-20 with five runs scored, one double and triple.

Season Series …

Ichiro wasn’t the only Mariner to hurt the Royals last week left fielder Casper Wells drove in seven runs over the four game series. Jesus Montero was 8-for-17 scoring five runs plus drove in eight runs against KC. Pitching wise the M’s got solid efforts from three of their four starters which was capped by Felix Hernandez eight inning performance.

In the opener Seattle put the final nail in the Jonathan Sanchez coffin scoring five first inning runs and knocking him out after an inning and a third. Jason Vargas went six innings allowing three runs but was picked up by his ‘pen allowing one run over the final three innings. Alex Gordon had three hits with Mike Moustakas providing two in the 9-4 defeat.

Game two was similar to game one with the Royals not getting a long outing from its starter when Ryan Verdugo made his MLB debut and only went 1 2/3 innings. Verdugo allowed six runs on eight hits in his rough debut. KC fought back from a six-run deficit twice in the game but ultimately lost 9-6, Lorenzo Cain had a two-run pinch hit home run.

Kansas City fell behind 1-0 in game three but tagged Kevin Millwood for three runs in the second inning. Gordon and Cain each drove in two runs and six of the seven Royals starters drove in a run in the 8-7 win, Bruce Chen took a no-decision. Billy Butler was the hero in the game with a walkoff HR to left centerfield.

Will Smith gave KC a 6 1/3 inning start which he struck out five walking just two in what was largely a good start. Facing King Felix proved difficult even with Kansas City getting eight hits, they were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and grounded into two double plays. Montero drove in four runs in the Mariners 6-1 victory.

7/16 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 4
7/17 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 6
7/18 – Mariners 7 @ Royals 8
7/19 – Mariners 6 @ Royals 1

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Thursday, 9:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31) v. Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91)
- Mendoza picked up his first victory at home on Saturday night against the Twins going 6 1/3 well pitched innings in a 7-3 win.
- In his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against Seattle in four games which includes one start.
- Vargas has won his last three starts and has been given run support of 7 (at Oak), 9 (at KC) and 2 (at TB) runs in these starts. He hasn’t won at home since May 9, 2-1 against Detroit at Safeco Field.
Friday, 9:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 6.49)  v. Blake Beavan (5-6, 5.54)
- Guthrie made his Royals debut on Sunday at home against the Twins allowing five runs in five innings, striking out four and walking three.
- He’s faced the Mariners ten times with each appearance being a start, his record is 2-6 both wins were complete games.
- Beavan threw last week at the K picking up the win going six innings, he allowed five runs and struck out three.
Saturday, 3:10 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.54) v. Kevin Millwood (3-8, 4.13)
- Chen’s last start came in the third game of the series last week in which he got the ND throwing 5 1/3 innings. He allowed four runs on seven hits striking out six without issuing a walk.
- Last week was the first time in his career that Bruce faced the M’s.
- Millwood got rocked in during his five innings at Kansas City last week which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits. On June 8^th he was part of a combined no-hitter for the team against the Dodgers in Seattle.
Sunday, 3:10 pm – Will Smith (2-3, 6.26) v. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 2.80)
- Smith started Tuesday night in Anaheim going seven innings in the Royals 4-1 victory allowing just two-hits.
- He’ll get another shot at King Felix who he faced in the series finale last week where he worked into the seventh inning before being pulled.
- Hernandez like Smith pitched and won on Tuesday night the only game of the previous series for his team. Against the Yankees he went 7 1/3 innings allowed four hits and two runs.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s guest is Bill Fischer, a former Kansas City Athletic (1961-1963) as a pitcher. He currently serves as the Royals special pitching assistant.

We’ll also go over what we’re watching for the rest of the season as the Royals spiral towards another 90-loss year.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Alcides Escobar is one of the Royals most exciting players in 2012 (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I got the idea for this story while watching Alcides Escobar jolt two no-doubt home runs in the same game while batting from his new home in the two-hole on Saturday, July 14 during a 6-3 Royals victory over the first place White Sox.  By the end of the game, Escobar was batting .311 and was surprising all of us with his ability to hit for power and average.

Think about how excited the clubhouse gets when Moustakas belts a home run.  They meet him at the top of the dugout steps, they high five and chest bump each other.  Now, think about what would happen if Chris Getz ever hits another of his “every blue moon” dingers.  (Getz hasn’t had a home run in any park – major or minor league – since 2009 during his stint with the White Sox.)  The team would meet him at home plate, they would pick him up and carry him back to the bench.  They would drown him in Gatorade.  Why?  Because it wasn’t expected.  When a player exceeds your expectations, it truly makes the game a thrill to watch.

Alcides Escobar came to us in the Zack Greinke trade.  Milwaukee packaged him with Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress to get our former Cy Young pitcher.  In addition to Greinke, the Royals tossed Yuniesky “Boomerang” Betancourt into the deal as well for good measure.  Unfortunately, Yuni didn’t stick, and he came back to us again this year.

The players the Brewers traded to the Royals were the best prospects they had to offer.  Lorenzo Cain would have been the Brewers starting Centerfielder, Jake Odorizzi is considered to be a future solid contributor from the starting rotation, and Jeremy Jeffress is a former 1^st round pick who is still developing.

Alcides had also garnered some significant accolades, particularly for his defense.  Beginning his career as an Amateur Free agent in 2003, he’s always hit for average in the minors (.293 career over 6 seasons), but his bat has consistently been overshadowed by his glove, and as we all know, offensive prowess doesn’t always translate as well from the minors to the big leagues the way defensive ability does.

Alcides Escobar demonstrates his superb defensive skills. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

Prior to assuming regular duty with the Brewers in 2010, Escobar was ranked as the #1 prospect in the Brewers system by Baseball America, and Sports Illustrated claimed he was the 17^th most promising prospect in all of baseball saying, “Escobar has the arm, infield actions, hands and range to win Gold Gloves at shortstop. He makes the routine plays and the tough ones, too. Plus, he has speed that impacts the game offensively, and his swing’s not so bad either.”  Saying his swing is “not so bad” isn’t exactly the greatest compliment, but there is no doubt that everyone recognized Escobar’s dynamic defensive potential.

Escobar struggled somewhat in his first full season in the majors with the Brewers.  He hit a light .235 (which unfortunately is still a few points above the “Hosmer line”) and experienced some difficulties defensively too.  He committed the 3^rd most errors of all National League shortstops, and had the unfortunate luck to mishandle the ball with incredibly bad timing.  Brewers fans claimed Escobar suffered from a “lack of focus” and had a habit of committing costly errors at exactly the wrong time.  This disappointing performance may have been why the Brewers were willing to include Escobar in the trade.  Lucky us.

After the Greinke trade, the only note MLB.com included about Alcides in their story was that he had “the tools to be an extremely exciting defensive player” but he struggles at the plate.  ESPN said almost exactly the same thing.

So, what did we think we were getting when Alcides Escobar trotted out to man the left side of second base to begin the 2011 season?  We thought we were getting a light hitting defensive whiz who needed to work on his concentration and focus to be successful at the major league level.  And in 2011, that’s exactly what we got – a .254 batting average, 4 home runs, and 15 errors, but he was at least as good or a little bit better in almost all areas over his previous season.   So, we were pleasantly surprised as his performance mildly exceeded our expectations.

To begin 2012, I believe most of us were expecting another similar season out of Esky.  We expected him to play strong defense, and to hold his own on offense, but we didn’t think he could be a game changer or even a player that we could count on for a key hit.  Escobar has met our defensive expectations with some of the most exciting infield defense most of us have ever witnessed, but on offense…  he’s surpassed our wildest expectations.

If you think Alcides Escobar can't hurt you with his bat, you are mistaken. (Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE)

Think back to last March as we were contemplating the season opener.  What would you have predicted about Alcides Escobar?  Would you have ever dreamed he would be mentioned in the same breath as Derek Jeter on offense?  Jeter and Escobar have been jousting for the league lead in batting average among shortstops.  Jeter has 7 home runs, Esky has 4.  Jeter has 27 RBI, Escobar has 29.  Escobar has far, far better range and defensive skills than the always dependable but long-in-the-tooth Jeter, making plays on balls that Derek would only waive at.  And Escobar is providing this production for the Royals at a $15 million discount over what Jeter is charging the Yankees.  Stunning, but true.

A few nights ago, Brad Brickell tweeted (@BradBrick) that the Royals win the Greinke trade on Escobar alone, and I agree with him, at least to this point.  Greinke is a great pitcher, and I’d love to have him back again when he hits free agency later this year.  But up to this point, I think it’s clear that Alcides has easily exceeded our expectations, and he’s a key factor in our bright hopes for the future.  Hopefully, all baseball fans will realize this when they’re voting for the All Star players in 2013.

Will Mike Moustakas overtake Billy Butler in HR's and RBIs in the second half?. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City will get to .500 at the K

I really feel that the Royals will play better at home and my faith comes from what I was a part of during the All-Star break at the K. The city and fan base wants a winner and I think they’ll come out to support the team which will translate to the team feeling the love which will turn to wins.

Mike Moustakas leads the team in HR’s and RBIs

Get ready for more MOOOOOOOOSE! Chants in the second half of the season because I feel the Royals sophomore third baseman will continue to improve. He’s not far behind Country Breakfast in homeruns and runs batted in which I think he’ll overtake him in the second half.

Wil Myers won’t appear until August of September

Driving back from KC on Wednesday I decided to listen to both 610 (the Royals flagship) and 810 (the former rights holder) on the drive back. Flipping between both got me to thinking that Wil Myers might not be in Kansas City as soon as hoped. Dayton Moore was on 810 and he mentioned that Jake Odorizzi might be in triple-A the whole year and depending on how Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur do (or get moved) he’ll be a Storm Chaser longer.

Royals won’t make a move at the deadline

I’m gun-shy about what GMDM will do at the deadline, I’ve got fears that nothing will happen. Obviously many fans want Frenchy gone for the purpose of letting Myers play. With 2013 being now dubbed the year it seems prospects might not be moved to get pitching at this deadline which is the biggest need right now. I really want to be wrong on this prediction in the worse way. In the offseason probably will be a different story when the team will need to acquire pitching.

Kansas City finishes the season around .500

Not only will the team get to .500 at home which helps the overall record is why I make this prediction. The team might’ve finished the first half with a whimper but I feel this group will make strides like they did last year and will be a thorn in the side of those competing. I’m also of the belief that the starters will help the bullpen which also helps the W/L record. Better starting pitching will lead to a less taxing of the ‘pen which makes the entire staff better.

Now, after a couple of false starts at rehab assignments, Cain will be activated and play after the All-Star break.

Along with him, Chris Getz will return at the end of the week. Getz had been sidelined since mid-June with a strained leg.

To open up a spot on the active roster, the Royals optioned Nate Adcock back to Omaha along with Irving Falu. Activating Cain filled the Royals last open 40 man roster spot (after claiming catcher Adam Moore from Seattle put them at 39).

Adcock made one appearance in his most recent trip to Kansas City, filling in for 4.1 innings after Bruce Chen gave up six runs in 3.1 innings. Adcock threw 4.1 innings and gave up two runs, though neither were earned. He has a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 innings in the big leagues in 2012. He’s been back and forth on I-29 five different times this year.

Falu has appeared in 15 games in Kansas City with 17 hits in 53 at bats, five of them for extra bases. He’ll make way for Getz, who had a .290/.327/.380 line when he went on the DL, then had four hits in 24 rehab at bats with Omaha.

The Royals now have Cain, Jarrod Dyson and Jason Bourgeois on the big league roster, which is pretty redundant, but I’d think that Cain will have to prove his health at first and won’t play every day, so the Royals will probably use a platoon on his off days. Cain spent 20 days on his rehab assignment but didn’t play every day and DH’ed often, so the Royals probably won’t rush him back. Once the 20 days were up on the rehab assignment, though, they had to do something with him.

Chris Getz and Lorenzo Cain continue their rehab with the Storm Chasers. Getz led off, played second base the whole game, and went 0-for-4 with a run scored. Cain batted third, played centerfield the whole game, and went 1-for-2 with a double.

Omaha stole five bases, but none of them resulted in a run.

NW Arkansas lost to Corpus Christi, 7-3. The Naturals had their chance in the 9th inning with the tying run at the plate in three straight at-bats, but two of those hitters struck out. They have now lost six in a row.

After the Naturals took a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning, Corpus Christi came back with seven runs from the 6th inning on. In that 3rd inning for the Naturals, Yem Prades hit a three-run homerun. Reliever Nick Rogers once again struggled with his command in the 9th inning and recorded just one out (while allowing two runs on two walks, a hit batter, and a single).

Catcher Manny Pina continued his rehab with the Naturals as the DH. He went 1-for-4 while batting cleanup.

Blue Rocks pitcher Elisaul Pimentel

Wilmington lost 8-3 to visiting Myrtle Beach to begin their homestand. Elisaul Pimentel went toe-to-toe with Pelicans starter (and All-Star) Kyle Hendricks. Both allowed two runs over six innings of work and neither factored into the decision.

The Pelicans scored six runs over the final two innings of the game against Blue Rocks reliever Andrew Stueve. The Blue Rocks two runs came in the 4th inning when Cheslor Cuthbert and Matt Fields hit back-to-back solo homeruns. As a team, they only collected five hits in the loss.

Kane County won their first game of their road trip in Wisconsin, 5-1. Angel Baez continues to dominate for the Cougars, as he allowed one run on four hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out five and the lone run came via a solo homerun in the 4th inning. 2012 draft pick Andrew Triggs continues to dominate since beginning his professional debut. He pitched two perfect innings of relief.

Alex Llanos hit his first homerun for the Cougars, a two-run shot, in the 6th inning. Jack Lopez went 4-for-5.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-3 in Burlington’s 3-2 walk-off victory.

After watching Iowa take the lead in the bottom of the 8th inning, Johnny Giavotella tied the game back up with a solo homerun in the top of the 9th inning.

The late scoring for the Cubs negated the solid spot start by Roman Colon. He allowed one run on two hits over five innings.

Chris Getz and Lorenzo Cain continued their rehab with the Storm Chasers. Getz led off and went 0-for-5 while playing nine innings at second base. Cain went 2-for-5 while playing nine innings in centerfield.

NW Arkansas lost to Corpus Christi, 3-0. The Naturals only had one hit prior to the 9th inning (a one out Yem Prades single in the 6th inning) against Hooks starter Ross Seaton. They finished with three hits total (from the top three in the order).

Bryan Paukovits tossed 3.1 scoreless innings of relief and struck out seven.

Manny Pina continued his rehab assignment and caught all nine innings (he went 0-for-3).

Blue Rocks reliever Sam Runion

Wilmington defeated Lynchburg 6-5 in ten innings on getaway day. Lane Adams hit his second homerun of the game in the top of the 10th inning. That was the Blue Rocks fourth solo homerun of the game.

The Blue Rocks collected 12 hits and five hitters had multi-hit games.

Sam Runion picked up the win with two scoreless innings of relief.

Kane County lost their home series to Quad Cities with a 6-1 loss. The Cougars now head back out on the road for a short three-game series in Wisconsin.

The Cougars collected just six hits, but only went 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position. The lack of offense made a loser of Kellen Moen, who allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits over six innings. He struck out five.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-3 with a walk, a double, and a run scored in Burlington’s 5-2 win over Bristol. The story of the game was the start by 2012 draft pick Colin Rodgers, who tossed six hitless inning. He struck out three and the only baserunner came via a hit batter in the second inning.

April 9, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) at bat against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at O.co Coliseum. Oakland defeated Kansas City 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Jake Odorizzi was looking to stay undefeated in Triple-A for Omaha (and technically he still is), as the Storm Chasers beat New Orleans, 8-5. The Storm Chasers have now won four in a row. Odorizzi lasted just three innings and allowed all five runs, though only two were earned. The four-run 3rd inning did him in. One run scored on a Tony Abreu fielding error and two scored after that (with two outs).

Down 5-1, Omaha came storming back, with two runs in the bottom of the 3rd inning and three more in the 4th inning. Wil Myers hit a two-out, two-run homerun in the 3rd inning (his 12th in Triple-A). Lorenzo Cain, who has moved up in his rehab, hit a two-run homerun in the 4th inning.

Wilmington lost the series finale to Potomac, 7-4 as the two teams split the four-game series. Elisaul Pimentel returned to the Blue Rocks after spending last season there (he was pitching in Double-A). He took the loss, as he allowed seven runs (six earned) on six hits and two walks over just 4.1 innings.

Tyler Sample celebrated his 23rd birthday with two shutout innings out of the bullpen. To make room for Pimentel, the seldom used Michael Liberto was promoted to Double-A.

The Blue Rocks return home to play a short three-game series beginning on Thursday before heading back out on the road Sunday. It will be their first home series of the second half.

Kane County salvaged the series finale against Beloit, 3-1. Angel Baez threw 5.2 scoreless innings to earn his second win, despite walking four (he allowed just three hits).

Julio Aparicio collected two hits with a batting average of just .438 (in just four games).

*Still no Bubba Starling, but he tweeted that he will debut Thursday in Johnson City.

April 9, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) at bat against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at O.co Coliseum. Oakland defeated Kansas City 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Omaha lost in extra innings to Memphis, 6-4. The Storm Chasers received a solid outing from starter Everett Teaford, who pitched six shutout innings. He allowed just two hits while striking out five. They also received a solid relief outing from Brandon Sisk, who pitched two shutout innings. But between those two and after was where all the runs were given up.

Wil Myers played third base, but made an error (though it did not cost them a run).

NW Arkansas lost the finale of their series with Tulsa, 5-4. The Drillers scored five runs in the top of the 6th inning. That was after John Whittleman gave the Naturals a 2-0 lead in the first inning with his 13th homerun of the season.

The Naturals did receive a good relief outing from Elisaul Pimentel. He allowed three hits over 3.2 innings. 27 of his 39 pitches were thrown for strikes.

Lorenzo Cain continued his rehab, but started as the DH on Thursday night. He went 0-for-4 with a run scored and two strikeouts.

Wilmington started the second half much the way they played during the first half. They lost to Carolina, 7-3. The Blue Rocks had 12 hits, but went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

The Blue Rocks had a few base-running blunders. Whit Merrifield went too far on a double and was thrown out at second base. They failed on a double steal (second and home) and both were thrown out.

It could have been much worse, as the Mudcats had 18 hits, but on consecutive singles in the 8th inning, Carolina had base runners thrown out at the plate. That allowed Cole White to give up five hits in one inning but only allow one run.

The Blue Rocks welcomed Orlando Calixte to the lineup (who was promoted to replace the promoted Alex McClure). He started at shortstop and went 2-for-4 in his High-A debut. It was a tough night for Brett Eibner: he went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts.

The short-season Burlington Royals lost to Pulaski 4-3. Royals starter Daniel Hernandez threw five perfect innings and struck out five. His relief quickly hit a batter, gave up a hit, and then the lead. Still no Bubba Starling.

The Storm Chasers hit four homeruns, two by Max Ramirez. Salvador Perez again caught all nine innings and went 4-for-4. He also scored three runs. Johnny Giavotella went 2-for-5.

Brian Fletcher playing some LF with the Blue Rocks

NW Arkansas took yet another game from Tulsa, as they won 7-6. The Naturals scored four runs in the bottom of  the 7th inning and held on for the victory.

There were two KC Royals making rehab appearances with the Naturals. Felipe Paulino started and allowed three runs on four hits and two walks over just three innings. He allowed two homeruns and struck out just one. Paulino threw 54 pitches, 33 for strikes. Lorenzo Cain got the start in centerfield and batted leadoff, as he went 2-for-5 with two runs scored. He also played all nine innings.

The Naturals also welcomed two new members to the club: Brian Fletcher and Alex McClure. Both got into their first Double-A games on Wednesday. I could see the Fletcher move happening, since he was Wilmington’s best hitter, but McClure has been under .200 all season long. However injuries to middle infielders Christian Colon and Sharlon Schoop gave McClure the opportunity (both are now on the DL). Unfortunately, Fletcher started in left field (where he doesn’t play his best baseball) and was taken out late in the game for defense (he went 0-for-4 with a run scored). McClure went 1-for-4, but struck out twice.

Still no games yet for Bubba Starling with Burlington, who is 2-0 to start the season.

Again, it’s been a rough year.

Danny Duffy, Joakim Soria and Blake Wood are done for the year. Tommy John surgery has claimed all three. Felipe Paulino hit the DL after an awkward landing while fielding an infield grounder. Salvador Perez and Manuel Pina both had meniscus surgeries in spring training. Lorenzo Cain hasn’t played two full series after straining his groin, then having the ailment re-diagnosed as a hip flexor and having two rehab stints aborted.

Thankfully, though, the Royals are starting to see some players return.

On Tuesday, Chris Getz returned from a rib injury to join the club in time for their first game against Milwaukee. Everett Teaford had an abdominal strain that had him rehabbing in Omaha until today. He was activated today – and then optioned to Omaha. But hey, he’s healthy.

Jonathan Sanchez ran into bicep tendinitis and has been on the disabled list for a while, but he was announced as tomorrow’s starting pitcher. He’s struggled in 2012, but perhaps some of the problem has been his health (though maybe that’s just wishful thinking).

Cain has had a rocky recovery after a great play in Oakland. What was thought to be a minor injury has now kept Cain off the shelf for almost half the year, and there’s no timetable for his return yet. The Royals have mostly used Jarrod Dyson in center, but he’s been in a big slump over the last month and is only now showing signs of coming out of it. He’s made plays in center, but at times he’ll play more shallow and doesn’t take good routes to the ball and his speed isn’t enough to make up the difference. Mitch Maier is better at defensive routes to the ball, but his speed is nowhere near Dyson’s. Cain (when healthy) can be the best of both with upside at the plate. He just has to be on the field to show it.

The biggest injuries have been behind the plate. Manuel Pina and Salvador Perez have been recovering from meniscus surgery but are close to returning. The impact of the Perez injury has been felt in a few ways within the organization. First, the Royals had to trade for Humberto Quintero to fill the gap, giving up two players to bring he and Jason Bourgeois into the fold. Secondly, they’ve had to play Quintero, who makes an out nearly three of every four plate appearances. A healthy Perez would have left Quintero and Brayan Pena in a backup role, giving their at bats to a player the Royals think has more promise at the plate, and who plays better defense and who pitchers love throwing to.

Defensively, both catchers have held their own, but it will be great to get Perez back. The actual date varies, as the Royals want to see him be able to catch on consecutive days without issue, but Perez will be back anywhere from next week to the end of June. Pina had a setback while running, but could come back before the end of the year.

While in Omaha, Perez has 12 hits in 27 at bats and drove in three runs in each of his last two games. Whenever he’s ready, he’ll be a welcome addition to the Royals lineup.

If Sanchez can return with any effectiveness, Getz returns to his solid April form and Cain can finally get back, adding Perez to that group of the recovered could make the second half of 2012 interesting for the Royals. They won’t be at full strength, since Paulino may need some time to heal fully and Duffy won’t be back until next year at the earliest, but they’ll be closer to where they thought they might be before the season started.

Last year, the Royals were remarkably healthy, with only a handful of players hitting the disabled list all season. Fortune has flipped on them in 2012, and they’re only now starting to recover from it. But they are recovering. That’s the important part.

How will Kansas City greet Zack Greinke Tuesday when he returns to Kauffman Stadium for the first time since being traded. Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

At this point many probably feel the Brewers got the better of the deal since they made the postseason with Zack and were two wins from the World Series last fall. Another reason Royals fans feel like the trade didn’t work out is because Betancourt was brought back this past offseason. It also doesn’t help that since the trade Greinke’s 23-8 during the last two seasons. During those two seasons Kansas City could’ve used a number one starter.

Saying his time in the city of fountains was up and down is an understatement because he only had two seasons with a winning record, one .500 season, lost 17-games in 2005 and dealt with a social anxiety disorder during his time in KC. As for the bright spots he did strikeout 15 Indians on August 25, 2009 which broke the team’s strikeout in a game record, previously held by Mark Gubicza.

His crowning achievement was winning the 2009 Cy Young award with a 16-8 record and 2.16 ERA for a team way removed from the postseason. That season he represented the Royals in the All-Star Game in St. Louis striking out two of the three hitters faced.

How will the crowd react Tuesday night? I expect it to be a mixture of cheers and boos when he takes the mound likely in a navy blue Brewers jersey. Royals fans never got to say goodbye and with Zack being a free agent this winter I think some people are holding out hope he returns since he and his wife still own a home in Kansas City.

When I heard that he was scheduled to pitch during this brief homestand there was no doubt that I’d drive down from Omaha to see the “return” of the former hero. I was there for the wins and losses in addition to the night where he toyed with Cleveland, I won’t boo but it will be bittersweet seeing him in another uniform.

Maybe if he’d stayed KC they’d be further in the “process” than they are now but there would also be no Alcides at short or No Odorizzi, no Cain (who could still contribute if he can stay healthy), no Jeffress (who might get back to KC at some point). In addition who knows if Greinke becomes the guy he is right now, the one who is nearly unbeatable at Miller Park and 7-2 this season. It’s possible that if he remains might of continued had he not got the change of scenery due to the struggles of 2010.

So if you’re at the K on Tuesday, it’s understandable if you root for the Royals while remembering the good times we had with number 23 throwing for Kansas City. However once Zack throws his first pitch to Alex Gordon your emotions might change a bit.

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

In every game, the first baseman will make several putouts.  With the exception of the few times each game that the first baseman may catch a line drive, or beat the catcher back to the base on a grounder, most of these outs are preceded by another defensive player snagging the ball and throwing it to the first baseman.  If it wasn’t for Alcides Escobar, aka #ShortStopJesus, and Mike Moustakas, aka #Moose throwing leather all over the left side of the infield, Eric Hosmer wouldn’t be credited with nearly as many putouts.

Jeff Francoeur puts fear into the hearts of opposing baserunners (Image: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

For all their short comings, one thing the Royals have in good supply is strong defense.  The left side of the field is covered by Gold Glover Alex Gordon, future Gold Glove shortstop Escobar, and the most improved third baseman in baseball, Moustakas.  When Salvador Perez returns at catcher I believe he will significantly solidify our only current position of defensive weakness.  Eric Hosmer plays strong defense, and Chris Getz, Jarrod Dyson / Lorenzo Cain can hold their own with the best of them.  But there is one aspect of our defense that nearly outshines the others with consistently stunning and noteworthy performances – Jeff Francoeur and his lethal ability to gun down unsuspecting baserunners.

When I began writing this story, I started to research all the records for outfield assists so I could compare Francoeur to the great Carl Yastrzemski (he lead the league in outfield assists 7 times) and Roberto Clemente (led the league 5 times and many say he had the best arm ever), or talk about how some of the “so called” greatest players, such as Albert Belle and Barry Bonds were the easiest outfielders to run on, etc., etc.  And then, I decided against it.

If given the choice, would you rather read about the history of the Grand Canyon, or would you prefer to stand on the edge, peering down into the magnificent canyon below while the sun set in the surrounding desert?  Endure a tedious classical art lecture, or gaze opon the timeless face of the celebrated Mona Lisa?  I decided not to engage in a boring discussion of defensive assists and simply pause for a few moments while we take in the majesty of the greatest outfield arm of our generation.

One of my all-time favorite baseball highlights is the video of Francoeur’s perfect, perfect, perfect throw to nail the Tiger’s Jhonny Peralta at third base on August 7 last year.  Apparently, Peralta didn’t get the memo about Frenchy’s ability to throw runners out.  I challenge you to find a more beautiful, almost breathtaking defensive play – Francoeur running toward the line to pick up the ball, whirling and launching a rocket to 3^rd, capped by the ho-hum nonchalant tag made by Moustakas as if it happened every day.  And check out the Tigers 3^rd base coach’s reaction as he hangs his head during the slow motion replay, it’s classic.  Click here to see perfection.

Then, fast forward to this season, May 1, 2012 and apparently Peralta was suffering a memory lapse evidenced by his ill-advised attempt to test Francoeur’s arm again.  (Peralta would make a great subject for an SNL Weekend Update “Really?!?” skit.)  Click here to see the result, as if you don’t already know.  Don’t you just love watching Jhonny Peralta run the bases against the Royals?  On the downside, this highlight would be a lot more enjoyable if the Royals weren’t losing 9-0 in the 4^th inning.

Another of my all-time favorite defensive highlights is from September 7, 2011 when Michael Taylor of the Oakland A’s came to bat in only his 4^th game and lined what appeared to be a sharp single into right field.  Well, bad luck for Taylor, Jeff Francoeur was playing right field and as a baserunner you can never take anything for granted on a ball hit to Frenchy.  Even more amazing to me is the fact that Hosmer went to first base to cover the throw from Francoeur.  That is the definition of heads-up.  Click here to see the embarrassing moment.  Welcome to the big leagues rookie.

Last year, the ESPN blog ranked active outfielders’ throwing arms and came up with a virtual tie for the number one position between Francoeur and Shin-Soo Choo.  In 2012, Choo has one assist, Francoeur has 5.  End of discussion.

The difference between those who have the ability to throw out runners from the outfield and those who don’t is absolutely huge.  In 2012, Francoeur is tied for the AL lead with 5 assists and only 16 other guys have two or more.  Everyone else has one or none.  Francoeur’s ability to throw out runners is similar to Willie Wilson’s ability to steal bases, or George Brett’s ability to hit for average, or Humberto Quintero’s ability to swing at the first pitch and tap a dribbler back to the pitcher – it’s far above the abilities of almost any other player in the league.

One thing worth mentioning in this story is that with all his talent, Jeff Francoeur didn’t lead the Royals in outfield assists last year.   In 2011, that honor went to Alex Gordon.  Remember this when you hear someone talking about an unfair arms race, they may be talking about the Royals rather than the Russians.

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Mar 16, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) slides safely into third base during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals knew that Lorenzo Cain would be out for a little while still after what was initially thought to be a groin strain turned out to be a torn hip flexor.

Now, he’ll resume his minor league rehab assignment and will report to Surprise, Arizona. Unfortunately, he’s still 4 to 8 weeks from returning to action, according to Bob Dutton. Until then, the Royals will continue to look at Jarrod Dyson and mix in Mitch Maier in center field.

To this point, both have filled in well. Maier is batting just .222 but he’s reached base 35% of the time and has played strong defense in center. He’d be just fine as an injury fill in full time in my opinion. The Royals want to see what they have in Jarrod Dyson. Recently, he’s been playing better than his early season cameo when he was sent back down after two games. He has a base hit in all seven games he’s played in this year and he’s seeing more pitches per plate appearance (4.0) than the league average (3.82). Last night, he had two at bats of eight or more pitches at the top of the order.

That will play for this team. If he keeps making contact, his speed will be an asset. If he can work a walk and get some pitch counts up, even better.  If for some reason there’s another setback with Cain or neither of Dyson and Maier can stay in center, Derrick Robinson is still hitting surprisingly well in Omaha, and the Royals may have occasion to call up Wil Myers to Omaha and could use the roster spot.

In pitching news, Greg Holland threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and said he felt fine after 26 pitches. He was placed on the disabled list after a dreadful appearance against the Blue Jays last month where he threw 22 pitches but just 7 strikes.

He was a potential replacement for Joakim Soria coming into the year, and at least figured to be an elite setup man after a breakout 2011, but he hadn’t recreated the same dominance from last season. In one of his seven appearances did he retire the side in order. He’ll start a minor league rehab assignment soon and should be on the mend shortly after that. Until then, the trio of Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins have been effective and Kelvin Herrera has been great in lower leverage situations.

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I was actually sitting in the stands in Surprise on the day when Joakim Soria blew out his elbow.  I didn’t know for sure what was happening before the trainer went to the mound, but after watching him pitch to a couple batters I tweeted to @Ethan_Bryan,  “I can see Soria’s mojo slipping away before my eyes.”

Royals fans are looking forward to having Salvador Perez behind home plate again. (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the darkest days of this young year actually occurred before the season began.  Last March 13 during Spring Training, Salvador Perez got his cleats stuck in the dirt and twisted his knee while warming up starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez.  An MRI revealed Perez had torn his lateral meniscus which required surgery to repair.  It is likely he’ll be out of the lineup until sometime around the All-Star game break.

You may also remember that prior to Salvador Perez’s stint on the DL, Manny Pina suffered a similar injury that has prevented him from getting any playing time this year.  This left the Royals with Brayan Pena as the only healthy major league caliber (stretching the definition of “ML caliber” just a little) catcher in their system.

We heard rumors that the Royals considered several temporary options to fill Salvador’s position, including Ivan Rodriguez who decided to retire last week, but settled on a trade with Houston that has Astros fans feeling pretty good and Royals fans a little uneasy.

To obtain catcher Humberto Quintero, and backup outfielder Jason Bourgeois from Houston (yes, the same Jason Bourgeois that was recently demoted in favor of “one-tool” Jarrod Dyson), the Royals packaged Minor League pitcher Kevin Chapman and the dreaded “player to be named later.”  (PTBNL)  On the surface, this doesn’t seem like a terrible deal for either team, except for the unknown piece of the agreement.  The Astro’s gave up two guys who weren’t going to make their team, in exchange for a decent minor league pitcher from the Royals with potential to eventually become a respectable reliever, plus the ominous PBTNL.

Even the specter of the PBTNL wouldn’t be too worrisome, except for this comment which was Tweeted by Alyson Footer, MLB’s beat reporter and Sr. Director of Social Media for the Astro’s – “I’m getting impression that Chapman is projected to be 7th/8th inn reliever and that the ptbnl is a good one, not just throw-in.”

Humberto Quintero is filling in for Salvador Perez and may become his permanent backup. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

And then during the announcement of the trade, Jeff Luhnow, General Manager of the Astros, stated that the player to be named later would be the key component of the trade.

What are Royals fans supposed to think about this?  While our farm system may still be loaded with talent even after the promotions of Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Duffy, and Cain; few of us believe that we have extra pieces to simply give away in exchange for a temporary player that could be virtually useless in a few weeks – unless he becomes Perez’s permanent backup.  (Cue the ominous movie background music.)

Because Quintero (or “Q” as many call him) has played part-time in the National League, few of us knew much about him upon his arrival in KC.  Dayton Moore told us “Humberto Quintero is a guy we like as a solid catch-and-throw guy and has a lot of experience at the Major League level and gives us the depth that we need at this point.”  You remember DM calling Q a “solid catch-and-throw guy,” right?  So what did you expect when you heard this?  Did you expect the 3^rd most stolen bases allowed? Did you also expect him to be among the leaders in passed balls?  I doubt it.  Considering Q is only a part-time player, these results are not encouraging.

Quintero is batting a semi-respectable .283/.366/.429 (before Tuesday’s game), with zero HR’s, but he has never hit higher than .250 over the past 9 seasons (except 2006 when he only played in 11 games) so I’m certain we can expect to see his numbers regress dramatically soon.  Brayan Pena is hitting just as well as Q right now in nearly every category and no doubt will continue to produce offensively at a higher level than Humberto over the remainder of the season.

Brayan Pena rides the bench most nights while Humberto Quintero starts (Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

I haven’t been a fan of Pena’s defense ever since he failed to block home plate at least twice last year on critical plays, but stats suggest his defense has been just as good as Quintero’s so far this year.  Quintero’s WAR is 0.2, Pena’s is 0.3.   Pena earns $875,000 and Quintero earns $1M.  But more importantly, Quintero cost us a PTBNL.  (I know, I’m harping on the PTBNL thing, but it bothers me so I can’t help it.)

I just don’t understand why we needed Quintero?  Couldn’t we have just picked up almost any journeyman free agent catcher off the street to backup Pena while waiting for Salvador Perez to recover, rather than trade away an unknown PTBNL?

Maybe I’m worried over nothing, but what if the PTBNL is based on playing time?  Quintero is getting the majority of the starts this year (for reasons unknown) and it’s possible that the more games he plays, or more plate appearances he receives will result in us forfeiting a higher caliber prospect.  Why wouldn’t the Royals have announced the terms of the PTBNL?  I’ve always said – if someone purposefully won’t tell you something, it’s because they don’t want you to know.  And why don’t the Royals want us to know?  My guess is that if it was something we’d be happy to hear, they’d tell us.

In my opinion, the Royals didn’t make a good move here.  We gave up prospects to get Quintero which tells me they projected him to be Perez’s permanent backup.  It tells me they believed Quintero is a stronger player than Pena.  It also tells me that once again, they don’t always know what they’re doing.

March 12, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) steals second base against San Francisco Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford (left) during the fourth inning at Surprise Stadium. Dyson advanced to third base on a throwing error by Giants catcher Eli Whiteside (not pictured). Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

If you haven’t heard, Lorenzo Cain’s rehab was derailed by a hip flexor problem, and it’s going to take a few more weeks, perhaps even a month, to get him back into the Royals lineup. This is, of course, bad news for a team that doesn’t really need more bad news.

After a hot spring, people began hoping Cain could be a faster, more defensively sound version of Melky Cabrera. At the very least, he would be a defensive upgrade and a slight offensive downgrade—a trade the Royals were obviously willing to take at a key position like center field with Cabrera’s contract considerations.

I was of the belief that Cain had the potential to be a solid .280/.320/.480 guy who plays great centerfield in a ballpark that demands speed in the outfield. Some thought he would never hit that much, but his limited track record in the majors and his productive minor league career suggest otherwise. Forget what his swing looks like; it works.

Now, what are the Royals left with? Not much. For most of Cain’s absence, they used a mix of Mitch Maier and Jason Bourgeois. Neither was very productive. Recently, they sent Bourgeois down and brought up Jarrod Dyson, who looks every bit the bench outfielder with his inability to hit big-league pitching. He started Friday, and it looks like Ned Yost is going to give him a chance to start for a while.

Here’s the thing about Dyson. Right now his numbers suck—.231/.267/.308—but I love the way he’s trying to play the game. He saved the Royals some runs in Friday’s game with a terrific sliding catch on a ball many other centerfielders wouldn’t have gotten to. He keeps hitting the ball on the ground and drawing the infield in with bunt looks. I’ve watched a few Storm Chasers games with Dyson as well, and it looks like he has the ability to be a patient hitter as well. That’s very important as a leadoff hitter. Patient, slap-hitting, good defense, that’s his ideal game. He has to be that type of player to be successful in the big leagues.

If you’d like a comparison to Dyson, think Juan Pierre. Their games should be identical if Dyson wants to be successful. Pierre’s had a lot of success in MLB and helped a lot of teams win by slapping the ball around and running. He helped lead the Marlins to a World Series championship with that style of play. If Dyson can be like Pierre, hopefully with a better arm from the outfield, he can stick as a starting center fielder.

Will that be with the Royals? I don’t know. It looks like right now, this is his tryout. If he plays out of his mind and the Royals keep winning, this disabled list stint might be a curiously long one for Cain. If I had to put a percentage on it, I’d say there’s a 10 percent chance Dyson plays well enough to usurp the starting job from Cain. But Dyson would have to play better than he has ever indicated he can. Cain has so much upside and such a rare blend of speed and power it will be difficult to take that job from him before he has a chance to prove himself. Dyson is more of a one-trick pony, but a very important trick that the Royals don’t have otherwise.

We’ll see how Dyson does with his tryout. Soon, the Royals will have to decide what to do with that situation. If Dyson plays well, he may for the Royals into a very tough decision. If he doesn’t, let’s hope his play doesn’t facilitate another nose dive and Cain gets back in time to see the Royals reach .500.

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Alex Gordon by the numbers gives you the best option as a leadoff hitter. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

My idea for a lineup is to have one that you use every single day, with the exception that it be tweaked for day games. This hasn’t been the case at all through 19 games I’ve long felt guys will get comfortable if they can get into a routine.

So far this season Alex Gordon, Jason Bourgeois, Jarrod Dyson, Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have all batted leadoff for the Royals. I won’t accept that if healthy Lorenzo Cain would have batted leadoff because the highest he’d batted had been second which only happened on opening day.

Gordon has shown flashes of coming out of his early season slump but hasn’t yet found a consistent home this season in the lineup. He’s batted leadoff opening week, moved down to the fifth spot for a couple days then he’s moved up to number two. Ideally Gordon might be best in the fifth spot but over the last year he’s been good at the top of the lineup on a team that lacks that guy.

In 89-games during the 2011 season he hit .305, 383 OBP, .916 OPS in 422 plate appearances. In addition he hit 18 homeruns, was 10-of-16 stealing bases, 56 RBI’s with 197 total bases. Not what the typical leadoff does but it helped everyone else out in the lineup.

Dyson tonight in Minnesota is getting another chance to leadoff after being recalled from Omaha this afternoon with Bourgeois being sent down. Getz got the chance in Cleveland and we were told he be “the” guy.

Prior to the series opener in the Twin Cities Ned has used 15 lineups in 19 games, last season Yost had 87 and to up the numbers to include interleague play it was 89. The fifth spot has been held by Gordon or Jeff Francoeur, let me say I like Franchy in the clubhouse and defensively but the guy needs a break from batting fifth or a day off.

Francoeur is hitting .227, no homeruns, three RBIs while scoring just six-runs, hardly befitting of battling fifth in the lineup. Move him down get his groove back then put him back if that’s where you want him Ned.

Mike Moustakas occupying the sixth spot (here is your guy who should be promoted to fifth batting .303, 2-homeruns, 8-runs scored and nine RBIs). With the numbers I just listed here is your fifth spot batter which at this point makes the lineup better. At the end of the day if you gave KC fans a 3-4-5 of Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer and Moustakas you’d have a grateful fan base.

Having the same lineup day in and day out helps players I firmly believe because they are creatures of habit. Telling a baseball player they will be in the same spot daily will put them at ease which usually produces better results. Now if after a period of say one-two weeks players aren’t producing then changes need to be made.

Mike Moustakas has produced the numbers that be well served in the fifth spot of the lineup. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

I concede the importance of righty/lefty match-ups plus prolonged slumps but changing lineups just for the rational of it didn’t work the day before or consecutive days doesn’t work for me. Pick a lineup let it go and then makes changes accordingly is all many of us ask.

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Dyson earned the promotion by posting surprisingly stellar offensive numbers at Omaha. Dyson has put up a .333/.373/.476 line in 63 at-bats. The .476 slugging percentage has been the biggest shock, as Dyson has shown a modicum of power in hitting three doubles and three triples against Class AAA pitching. For comparison, Dyson’s .849 OPS thus far is 136 points better than his full-season line in Omaha during the 2011 season.

Jaon Bourgeois's defining moment in a KC uniform may have been this April 22 pickoff against the Blue Jays. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Bourgeois, for his part, has essentially been a non-factor since being traded in Spring Training from the Houston Astros in the Humberto Quintero-Kevin Chapman deal.  His defining moment, in fact, may have been a low-light. In the middle of the club’s crippling 12 game losing streak, Bourgeois was picked off of first base in a close game with the Toronto Blue Jays on April 22. It was the last time Bourgeois appeared in a game for the Royals. With Dyson raking in Omaha, the move to swap the two outfielders was a no-brainer.

Bourgeios’ inclusion in the Quintero deal was always questionable, especially since Lorenzo Cain was healthy at the time and Mitch Maier was/is firmly entrenched as the club’s fourth outfielder.

Dyson, however, is slightly more intriguing both because of the increased power he’s flashed at Omaha this season as well as the fact that he experienced success at the beginning of 2011 while manning that “super-sub” for the Royals.

Dyson will be starting in center field and leading off in tonight’s game, and it will be interesting to see how he seizes his latest opportunity with the big club.

From my perspective, though, it will be difficult for Dyson to fall short of Bourgeois’ high water mark for the Royals. And with any luck, Dyson can show a little bit of pop and improve the base-running for a squad that has only recorded 11 stolen bases in 19 attempts.

In short, there is little to lose by calling up Dyson, but there is a potential gain. It’s a good decision, especially considering the recent news that starting center fielder Cain has suffered a setback in his rehabilitation from a pulled groin.

Let’s see what Dyson can do.

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Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball players are a superstitious lot.  There are some superstitions that almost everyone follows, and there are some that are bizarrely unique.  For those of us who watched Tuesday’s game on TV, we witnessed Alcides Escobar wearing Yuniesky Betancourt’s shoes.  Escobar did have a hit in the game, keeping his average above .300, but the Royals still lost the game.

Some superstitions start at a young age.  Starting in little league, no one dares to step on the chalk foul line on the way on or off the field.  Maybe this is in line with “step-on-a-crack-break-your-mother’s-back” type of thinking.  However, there is always that one guy on the team who always steps on the chalk.  I have yet to observe who the Royals’ line-steppers are.  Maybe they need to work harder at converting others.

Another common superstition is not talking about a no-hitter for fear of jinxing it.  This subject was actually broached on the Royals’ Twitter time-line last week, about five minutes before Luke Hochevar surrendered his first hit of the game.  Rookie mistake.

Baseball players are people of routines and when they find a routine that works—whether it includes shirts, bats, and hats—they stick with it.  (Remember Roy Hobbs and his bat Wonderboy?)  Some players have lucky undershirts or a favorite place to sit on the bench.  Rumor has it Alex Gordon wore the same hat all season last year.  (Maybe he needs to find it for this season?)  These behaviors of routine are then transferred onto the diamond, as players us them to help focus and duplicate previous successful endeavors.

One of my personal favorite superstitions, the rally hat, started with the players and has passed on to us fans.  A rally hat is any hat worn inside-out, upside-down, with the bill pointed to heaven or to the guy behind you or in a multitude of other ways.  (A Royals rally hat is not to be confused with anything that the “royals” from the other side of the ocean wear on their heads.)  Come late innings, the losing team almost always breaks out some kind of rally cap to inspire on-the-field success.

Many players also have their own unique superstitions.

I have heard that when Reggie Jackson signed with the Angels after having multiple successful seasons with the Yankees, that he took his batting helmet with him, having  an Angels’ logo painted over the Yankees logo.

Satchel Paige reportedly had his pitching arm rubbed down with axle grease before every outing.  He believed it helped him to pitch nine innings every time.

Wade Boggs might take the cake as one of the most superstitious players of all time.  He ate chicken before every game and later published a cookbook of all of his chicken recipes.  He woke up at the same time every day (I wonder how that works in different time zones) and always took 150 ground balls during infield practice.  He drew a Hebrew word in the batter’s box meaning “life” before each at bat and would always smooth the dirt in front of him with his left foot while standing at third base.

With the Royals’ losing streak approaching epidemic proportions, many fans have tried to break the slump employing their own superstitions, and I am no exception.  For one game, I tried to comment on everything on Twitter.  The next game, I had a Twitter fast.  (Michael Engel was supposed to join me, but he broke in the seventh inning.  Weak.)  I have participated in L’il Frenchy’s “wear-a-different-Royals-shirt-everyday” and am starting to get strange looks.  I overheard one fan, who is an avid collector of Royals’ autographs, is spending time rearranging his autographed baseballs, trying to find the “right combination.”

What all of this comes down to is simple: we desperately want a win. 

I cannot help but look at the beginning of this season through the lens of Story.  According to best-selling author Donald Miller, a story is simply “a character who wants something and overcomes conflict to get it.”  At the beginning of every story, we are introduced to the protagonist, the leading character.  The first chapters of a book or first scenes of a movie show us the goodness in the character, enabling us to become emotionally attached to this character’s success.  Following the introduction to the character, we catch a glimpse of what it is that the character desires as well as the obstacles that the character must overcome in order to succeed.  The greater the desired object of the character, the more resistance he will face, the more demanding the obstacles he will have to overcome.

Let’s revisit the first few chapters of this year’s Royals story.

In the off-season, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all signed contract extensions.  The slogan of “Our Time” is adopted for the 2012 season.  Even in the middle of football season, people are talking Royals baseball.  The fan base is truly excited, believing that we’ll be surprised and rewarded on the field.

The obstacles start occurring even before the season officially starts.  Manny Pina and Salvador Perez both go down with knee injuries.  Joakim Soria is out for the season with his second Tommy John surgery.  Felipe Paulino has a strained forearm.  Blake Wood has an irritated ulnar nerve.

The season starts, and we quickly fall in love with our character.  The first time through the rotation, the Royals starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Lorenzo Cain impresses us in the field and at the plate.  The Royals’ win their first series against the Angels and come home from their first road trip at .500.  We see the potential.  We believe—Nosotros Creemos.

Round two of the obstacles:  Lorenzo Cain gets injured.  And, as of this writing, a 12-game losing streak.  No wins at home.  Zero statistical luck.  Double plays (and a triple play!) mean that there are runners on base and hard hit baseballs.  They just happen to be hit right at people.  Phenomenal reliever Greg Holland is placed on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his rib cage.  Moments ago, it was released that Cain experienced a “minor setback” in his rehab assignment, further delaying his return to the team.

Once the obstacles start coming, they will not stop until the want of the character is satisfied.  (Think “Lord of the Rings” or “Star Wars” or any good movie.)  This is the critical time for character development.  We learn how the character reacts when nothing goes according to plan, when the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.  In the middle of the pain of the struggle, the character is tested to see if he truly has what it takes to press on and continue to pursue his dream, even without any positive reinforcement.  Will he cave in to resistance or persevere through it?  This is the ultimate question.

If I were in charge of writing the story of this year’s Royals, it would go like this:

Slowly, the Royals will start winning, and slowly the players will return to the team healthy.  By the All-Star break, Cain, Paulino, Holland, and Giavotella will all be in KC and contributing to the team’s success.  The Royals will be in third place in their division, still under .500, but only by a few games.  After the All-Star break, the Royals catch fire, becoming the hottest team in all of baseball.  Perez will return to the lineup to guide the pitching staff into consistent and brilliant performances.  The team that walked through the valleys in April will be able to do no wrong.  And for the first time in decades, the Royals make it into the postseason.

The last time the Royals were in the postseason, I lived in Springfield.  In just a few weeks, I’ll be moving my family back toSpringfieldso my daughters can spend more time with their grandparents.  I’ll willingly join the ranks of the displaced Royals’ fans if this will help the Royals tell a better story this season.

For now, I’ve got my shirt on inside-out, the bill of my hat pointed to heaven, and my autographs arranged in the order of today’s lineup.  It can’t hurt.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com.

Felipe Paulino was placed on the DL before the season started and helped Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy stick in the big league rotation. He had a strained right forearm and is making a rehab start for Northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, according to Bob Dutton.

I’d expect that Paulino will make a start for Omaha as well before the Royals determine when to make a switch. Duffy has pitched well in two starts before some struggles in Sunday’s game, but his ERA overall is 3.63 and his average fastball velocity is rivaled only by Stephen Strasburg so far this year. Mendoza, on the other hand, has had two rough starts, walking nine in 13 innings and giving up 24 hits. He may have two more starts to convince the Royals he’s actually changed and that his 2011 wasn’t a mirage. You know my thoughts on the matter.

Lorenzo Cain early in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

The more immediate good news is that Lorenzo Cain is close to returning. After a fine running catch in Oakland, Cain strained his groin, landing on the DL. He made his first rehab appearance Sunday for Northwest Arkansas and Dutton reports that he’s tentatively set to return on Friday when the Royals will be in Minnesota.

Cain was hitting .133 through four and a half games when he hurt himself, but after a strong spring, he may be the answer to the Royals problems in the top of the order. So far, Ned Yost has used a mix of Yuniesky Betancourt, Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar and Jeff Francoeur in the top two spots in the order. Cain isn’t a traditional leadoff hitter, but his speed would play well there. He’d also be a good bat between Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer – two lefties – at the top of the order.

His return would also help out by adding offensive potential with great defense. In his absence, the Royals have played a rotation of Jarrod Dyson (who misplayed some balls in two games of the Cleveland series) and Jason Bourgeois while Mitch Maier has gotten the most work. None of the three are seen as consistent regulars, though Maier has filled that role in the past. They’re all better suited to being late inning replacements for defensive or pinch-running purposes.

Blake Wood may be ready to return soon to reinforce a bullpen that has been heavily taxed early on in 2012. His return would help since Greg Holland was placed on the DL after his awful appearance on Friday night. Joakim Soria, of course, is out for the year, while Manuel Pina and Salvador Perez both have a way to go to recover from meniscus surgeries.

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

To properly celebrate the return of baseball to Kansas City in for the 2012 season, the Royalman Report packed up and headed to an undisclosed location to broadcast among the many fans hanging out before  the first game at Kauffman Stadium.

Chris Kamler, Michael Engel, Troy Olsen and guest James Geist discuss the Royals.

We discussed the first two series of the year, the bullpen and compared closer possibilities. We had to cover Lorenzo Cain’s DL stint of course, and covered our opening day memories of the past. We also got to talk to a few fans near the broadcast location. It was a blast, however the game after the broadcast wasn’t quite as fun…

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Lorenzo Cain won't make these plays for a little while. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

On Tuesday night, Lorenzo Cain made a long, running catch in centerfield to rob Daric Barton of at least a double. After the play, though, he came away favoring his leg and played one more inning but gave way to Mitch Maier as a pinch hitter.

The Royals said Cain strained his groin and he sat out Wednesday’s game. The team said Cain’s day off was planned anyway and not to worry. Today they placed him on the disabled list retroactive to yesterday and recalled Jarrod Dyson from Omaha. The move prevents him from re-aggravating the injury and missing further time.

Cain had two hits in fifteen at bats in the early season but his defense had an impact, as his speed put him in range of many balls that Melky Cabrera likely wouldn’t have caught up to last year. Dyson brings similar speed, as does Jason Bourgeois, though neither have the arm that Cain does (which is about average). Maier has a stronger arm but not quite the speed.

Dyson was 12-33 in Omaha and was successful in all six stolen base attempts.

Ned Yost hinted that Dyson will play the majority of the time in center while Cain is out. My vote would have went to Mitch Maier, who’s a more well-rounded player and has filled in as a regular when injuries have hit in the past. Defensively, the Royals can’t miss with any of the three candidates. Dyson still has to prove he can hit at the big league level. If he gets most of the time in center over the next two weeks, he’ll have his chance to show one  way or the other.

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Danny Duffy looked great in shutting down the A's on Tuesday. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Danny Duffy struck out eight in six shutout innings and allowed just one hit to lead the Royals over the A’s on Tuesday night in a 3-0 game cut short by rain.

The game was delayed to start off and rain fell all night. In the top of the eighth, Eric Hosmer swung and missed at strike three and lost the grip on his bat. After that, umpire Jim Joyce stopped the game and the tarp came onto the field. Just over an hour later, the game was called.

The Royals put up three runs, breaking a 25 inning scoreless streak in Oakland going back to last season and including last night’s mystification at the hands of Tom Milone. Mike Moustakas drove a double deep to center that fell to the ground after Yeonis Cespedes barely got to it and Billy Butler scored. Jeff Francoeur scored two batters later on a sacrifice fly by Humberto Quintero. Mitch Maier added a solo homerun in the seventh after coming into the game for Lorenzo Cain.

Cain had made a long run to catch up to a Daric Barton fly ball at the warning track and turned it into a double play when Collin Cowgill took off and couldn’t get back to first. He hit the wall and came off the field gingerly and after stepping into the on deck circle for his next at bat, came out of the game. With the wet field it may have just been a precaution but more details will come later.

Alex Gordon continued to go hitless after walking in his first at bat. He hit a few balls hard but they were right at people. He’s just not getting the luck right now.

The star of the night, though, was Duffy. After a 21 pitch first inning, it looked like a typical Duffy start. He opened up with an eight pitch at bat against Jemile Weeks before striking out Coco Crisp and Jonny Gomes (with a Cespedes walk sandwiched between). He walked Cowgill in the second and benefitted from the Cain catch and double play to get out of the inning quickly and erased the only base hit of the game against him – a double by Cliff Pennington – by picking him off of second base.

Then he went to work, retiring ten of his next twelve with five strikeouts.

He was working his fastball on both sides of the plate and his curve ball was breaking hard. Duffy got 16 swinging strikes out of his 103 pitches. Oakland just couldn’t hang with him. He had some issues with control (walking four overall) and seemed to struggle with a wet pitching mound in the fifth inning in walking two batters. It drove up his pitch count, but he also put up the six scoreless, which is encouraging. His start counted for a 74 Game Score, making it his best start as a big leaguer. Aaron Crow worked the bottom of the seventh and worked through the A’s quickly, striking out two. By being the final pitcher, he’s credited with his first major league save.

Duffy’s solid start caps off an unexpected first trip through the Royals starting rotation. Billed as the key weakness during the offseason, through five starts, the Royals starters have amassed 29 innings and given up just five runs. It’s only one trip through, so we can’t start planning the parade yet, but all five starters have handled their assignments so far. Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza suffered from a lack of run support (and one rough inning by the bullpen after Chen), but Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez earned wins in their starts.

The A’s and Royals are going to try to get the last game of the series in tomorrow afternoon, but rain is still in the area so there may be delays or postponements. With the win – even if it’s a short game – the Royals will return to Kansas City with at least a .5o0 record before Friday’s home opener.

Bruce Chen will take on Brandon McCarthy tomorrow.

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Bruce Chen was the lone bright spot in the Royals 2012 opener. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

It’s very easy to overreact to one game.

The Royals didn’t seem like they could hit much of anything from Jered Weaver and the bullpen gave up five runs in the bottom of the eighth to spoil a solid six innings from Bruce Chen in Anaheim.

Chen was solid, throwing strikes and staying ahead of Angels hitters. In six innings, he never went to a three ball count and struck out four while walking none. After a rough spring, Chen came out working the plate and going after a lineup made up of hitters swinging from the right side and held the Angels scoreless, giving way to Aaron Crow.

Crow stepped in and struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh, mowing down Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols and Torii Hunter. Pujols and Hunter especially looked lost at the plate against Crow. The eighth inning, however, wasn’t as kind to the former first rounder, as three soft singles loaded the bases.

Greg Holland took over, but despite stranding 94% of runners inherited in 2011, all three scored on Friday. An infield chopper from Peter Bourjos allowed the first run to score and kept the bases loaded, and a bases clearing triple from Erick Aybar gave the Angels a cushion. On the big hit, Jeff Francoeur was playing towards center field and couldn’t make it to the spray hit from Aybar.

At the plate, the Royals never figured out Jered Weaver’s slider. The top four batters struck out nine times and went a combined 0-16. The Royals only managed back to back singles in the third inning by Brayan Pena and Alcides Escobar, later adding two hits in the seventh inning with a Jeff Francoeur double and Yuniesky Betancourt single. Francoeur was picked off of second base before Betancourt’s hit, though, but otherwise likely would have scored.

But again, it’s one game out of 162. Greg Holland should be fine. Aaron Crow should be fine. The top four hitters should be fine. If such issues are still present in late May, then concern is warranted. Until then, today’s another day.

In Game 2 of the series, the Royals send Luke Hochevar to face Dan Haren.

Game 1 Scorecard:

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Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits an RBI double Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

With opening day looming, I wanted to give a few of my predictions for this season.  This spring has been a roller coaster ride of injuries, disappointment, and excitement and I‘m trying to make some sense on how this season might fare.  There couldn’t have been too many folks predicting that Lorenzo Cain would be one of the best hitters in all of spring training, so that‘s what makes it confusing.  I believe this squad is certainly capable of building off of last year’s second half momentum but a few key injuries could hamper any further progression.  That’s why I think they will contend for a few months but the lack of experience and missing some key players, through injuries, will keep this team at 80 wins for the year, but I think most Royals fans will gladly take an 80 win season.  So, without further ado, here are my top 5 predictions for the season.

My first prediction comes out of the bullpen.  With Joakim Soria out for the year, the Royals will look somewhere else to fill the void of the former All-Star.  I believe Greg Holland will be the guy Ned Yost names as his closer.  While Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton snatch a few saves throughout the season, I predict Greg Holland as the full-time closer as he notches 30 saves.

I’ll stick with pitching for my next prediction.  The rotation won’t be the brightest spot for the team this year, but Luke Hochevar certainly will do his fair share.  Hochevar will continue his spring dominance and carry that into the regular season where he will win 15 games and finish with an ERA under 4.00 for the first time in the majors as a regular starter.

One of the more interesting things to watch will be how last September carries over into this year for Mike Moustakas.  I think we will see more power from Mous, but he still will show some struggles at times at the dish.  I look to see him hit 25 homeruns, which might seem like a lot, but it certainly is attainable for someone who has as much power as he does.  His average, however, will hover around the .260 mark throughout the season.

One thing is certain, I cannot wait to watch Lorenzo Cain roam centerfield at “The K”.  He has hit the cover off the ball this spring and has shown some good pop on top of that.  It is not out of the question that he hits 20 homeruns and finishes one stolen base shy of 20 steals, which is what I have him doing this year.  Just how Melky Cabrera had a very nice spring last year and relayed it into a great year, I think Cain will do the same thing this year for the Royals.

My final prediction is for a guy who has been a steady performer in his first few seasons in the big leagues.  He is always hitting for a good average but has been looked down upon, in the past, for his lack of elite power.  I had always thought it will take him some time to grow into his power, which I think in the second half of last season we saw a glimpse of what he is capable of doing.  I am, of course, talking about “Country Breakfast”, or Billy Butler.  A few more doubles in the past, will now turn into some homers for Butler, this season.  I believe he will hit .331 and finish 3^rd in the American League behind Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano in the batting title race.  Butler will continue to impress people with his consistency and he might even make a case for one of the top right-handed hitters in the game.

These are some of my thoughts and predictions for this season.  I hope everyone enjoyed reading what I think are realistic outcomes for the year and I’d love to hear some of your opinions regarding my predictions or if you have some you’d like to add.  It’s always fun to toss around some ideas on who we think will do what this year.  Oh and by the way, we are only two days away!!

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We were pleased to feature a trio of local sports commentators on the latest Royalman Report.

Curtis Kitchen covers a bit of everything at CurtisKitchen.com but primarily focuses on the Big XII and Kansas State sports. He also works with 610 sports. He joined us to discuss the Frank Martin escape from Manhattan and the state of KSU basketball.

We then jumped into Royals baseball with Nate Bukaty, who you’ll recognize from his reporting during the Royals pregame and postgame shows. We covered a bit of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game beforehand but then got to talking about the starting rotation, particularly Luis Mendoza‘s potential to continue the success he had last season in Omaha.

Finally we were joined by Robert Ford, who handles the pregame and postgame shows for 610 sports. A key topic was the Yuniesky Betancourt/Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella second base drama.

We finished up with the usual crew talking about the Alex Gordon contract extension.

It was great to have the trio on the show.

A programming note: We don’t have a show scheduled for Sunday night as usual but will be out at Kelly’s Westport Inn on opening day April 6 for a tweet up among Royals fans, Kings of Kauffman readers and Royalman Report listeners. Anyone (21+) in the KC area can hang out and talk some Royals baseball before the Royals take on the Angels, then stay and watch as the season finally gets underway.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

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There’s been plenty to talk about the last few weeks, what with injuries, trades, and questionable demotions. It’s been enough to take the wind out of the sails a little bit. (more…)

What are the Royals Future Plans for Wil Myers? (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the premiere players predicted to lead the second wave of the youth movement is outfielder Wil Myers.  Myers was drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2009 draft, not because there were 90 players available who were more talented, but primarily because of “signability issues.”  He’s a first round talent that Baseball America has ranked as the Royals 3^rd best prospect behind Mike Montgomery and Bubba Starling.  Myers began his minor league career as a catcher, but was moved to the outfield to hasten his development time and to make way for defensive whiz Salvador Perez – very good forward thinking on the Royals part.

Wil Myers experienced nothing but success during his first two seasons of professional ball.  However, in 2011, he struggled at the plate, hitting just .254 in 99 games for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.  You might think that Wil’s knee injury suffered early last season from jumping over a wet sidewalk, or the subsequent stitches and staples, or the resulting infection and ultimately surgery were the issues that derailed his progress.  However, Myers said he was just thinking too much, “I was pressing and overthinking things.  Trying to work on too many things.  I couldn’t get my foot down (for proper timing.) I was getting a little too selective.“

Last Fall, Myers found his touch again at the showcase for young talent, the Arizona Fall League.  Myers tore up opposing future pitching stars to the tune of .360/.481/.674, one of the top performances in the AFL and better than Bryce Harper by every measurement except home runs.

It was reported last November that the Royals were interested in the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, but the deal was nixed because the Braves wanted Wil Myers in return.  There are mixed reviews on Jurrjens future and his persistent knee problems, but he is projected as the Braves opening day pitcher on a deep staff (due to Tim Hudson’s injury) and he certainly could have improved the Royals weak starting rotation.  If this report is true, the fact Dayton Moore didn’t pull the trigger on the trade tells us the Royals have plans for Myers that involve using him as more than just a trade chip.

Assuming Myers picks up anywhere near where he left off in the AFL, he’ll be banging on the Royals door sometime this year.  The question is, what do the Royals do with him when this happens?  Dayton Moore, Ned Yost and company haven’t answered this question yet.  With a trio of skilled outfielders already patrolling the grass at Kauffman, the Royals brass will have some tough decisions to make.

It’s unlikely Wil would be promoted just to sit on the bench as the 4^th outfielder as this could stunt his continued development.  It’s best for him to be a starting outfielder, regardless of whether this occurs in Omaha or Kansas City.  The only potential easy answer would be that Myers (if he performs well) could be called up when a starting outfielder stumbles, which of course we all hope doesn’t happen.  I think we would all prefer that his strong performance in the minors demands a promotion rather than receiving a promotion by default.

While the most likely destination for Wil is in right field, he has played all three outfield positions in the minors.  Although Alex Gordon hasn’t been locked up long term yet, we all believe it’s just a matter of time before this happens, and the consensus opinion says the delay hasn’t been for any lack of desire on the Royals part to get a deal done.  This makes it unlikely that Myers would inherit left field.

Myers could go to center field, but this position isn’t a natural fit for him.  We haven’t seen a large sample size from Lorenzo Cain hitting against major league pitching, but in Spring Training he has demonstrated the probability that he can more than hold his own.  So once again, it’s somewhat unlikely Myers would end up in center field.

Will fan favorite Jeff Francoeur be the odd man out in the Royals future outfield alignment? (US PRESSWIRE)

This leaves Jeff Francoeur, the fun loving, cannon-armed leader of the Royals outfield as a potential casualty of a Wil Myers promotion.  Would the Royals then trade Francoeur to a contender if Myers promotion occurred prior to the deadline?  It’s possible, but Frenchy is signed through 2013 and while his pay rate isn’t outrageous, at $7.5 million in 2013, it isn’t an amount that most teams would be excited to take on.  Francoeur is a team player, but it’s hard to picture him sitting on the bench next to Yuniesky Betancourt.  (Yuni is going to be sitting on the bench, right?  Please tell me Yuni will be sitting on the bench…)

Another possibility is that Myers performs well this year, but not so well that he can displace one of the Royals current outfielders.  (Does that sound familiar Lorenzo Cain? Déjà vu from 2011.)  Then maybe he’ll receive a call up in September and a taste of the big leagues to see what he can do at the major league level.

None of this conjecture really provides us with any answers for 2012, and if the Royals have any answers regarding their plans for Myers, they aren’t revealing them yet.  It’s possible that things could work out so the Royals won’t be forced to make a decision this year.  But next year in 2013, barring a major injury among Gordon, Cain, Francoeur, and Myers, or a major setback in performance from any one of this group, the Royals will have no choice but to let us in on their little secret.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

I’m glad you asked. As always, the players I choose to feature are based loosely on their inherent value to the club, as well as a healthy dose of pure unadulterated subjectivity.

The MIRAGE DIVISION

Max Ramirez – Spring stats: .391/.481/.826 with three home runs and 11 RBI’s.

I predicted a while back that Ramirez would get play with the Royals this season, and in the meantime, Salvador Perez’ injury has made that notion a greater possibility. That being said, I find it hard to believe that Ramirez will be a 1.307 OPS player  moving forward.

Instead, it seems like Ramirez is cleaning up in the scenario best suited for him – against quadruple-A pitching. He may well get forty games on the big league roster, but a period of sustained success would be a first in the big leagues.

In the meantime, I’ll air on the side of caution.

Chris Getz – Spring stats: .333/.370/.375 with three stolen bases.

Saying that Getz is due to regress is as drab as saying that the sun is hot. Nonetheless, it is always terrifying to see Getz swing the bat well in spring training because we can never predict what Ned Yost might do under the spell of a couple gritty Getz performances. Just know this: the closer we get to the regular season, the more likely it becomes that Yost picks Getz to man second base over the struggling Johnny Giavotella (who we’ll get to later).

Mitch Maier – Spring stats: .333/.394/.500 with four extra base hits.

See Getz, Chris.

Maier has always had the innate ability to crush the ball during spring training, but so far it has never translated into consistent regular season success. He’ll probably make the team again, but his .894 spring training OPS should not illicit much optimism. Maier will be 30 in June and he’s more likely to regress at this point than make significant strides I’d love to be wrong on that though.

Wil Myers – Spring stats: .278/.278/.278 with no extra base hits

Myers wasn’t in camp long enough to form a solid opinion on, so I’ll provide you with an unsupported one. Despite hitting for zero power this spring, Myers is due for a breakout season at AAA Omaha. He’s the best of the hitting prospects left at the minor league level, and he should be more comfortable beginning his second season in the outfield. I think Myers will display enough power to go with his sweet swing to earn a late-season promotion.

Salvador Perez – Spring stats: .000/.000/.000

Salvador Perez will miss the first half of the season with a knee injury. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

This is an easy one. Perez suffered through a wild spring training that saw him sign a club friendly contract extension, promptly go 0-15 in his first spring training at-bats, and then suffer a knee injury that will cost him at least the first two months of the season. Admittedly, all those zeroes across the board are pretty jarring.

Perez’ spring was a mirage, though, because I expect him to be a reliable player moving forward. His bat, which looked too good to be true during his call-up last season, was too bad to be true during his miniscule spring sample size. His offense should eventually be more than capable as a supporting skill behind his stellar defense.

The Royals will closely monitor Perez as he rehabs this injury and he should be re-installed as a lynchpin of the organization by the All-Star break.

Tommy Hottovy – 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Great story, seems like a great kid. The peripherals are there too. It’s funny, we aren’t supposed to take too much stock in spring training stats, unless of course there is competition at a position. Then those stats suddenly become a deciding factor in the shaping of the roster. Hottovy has been excellent this spring, but that doesn’t mean he’s making the team. There are simply too many other players ahead of him, even with the almost certain extended loss of closer Joakim Soria.

-Mike Montgomery – 20.50 ERA, 2.2 IP, 1 strikeout, 3 walks.

Montgomery was simply too bad to be believed in his limited time with the big club this spring. Royals Nation now just has to hope that Monty can avoid the type of early season swoon that submarined his 2011 campaign.

Even with the struggles, however, Montgomery is arguably the best arm in the Royals farm system, and he’ll get plenty more chances. I think he’ll pull himself together and make his major league debut during 2012.

-Jonathan Sanchez – 21.00 ERA, 3.0 IP, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

If Sanchez’ spring is not an aberration, then may God have mercy on my soul. Sanchez has made Bruce Chen look like Steve Carlton in managing to pitch only three innings this spring. Sanchez has, however, packed  a lot of work into those innings, giving up seven runs and walking two batters during what has been a disastrous introduction to Royals fans.

Something tells me Dayton Moore is not in a rush to get Sanchez signed to an extension.

The Real Division

Billy Butler – .415/.478/.732 with 3 home runs, 4 doubles, and 7 walks.

Butler has been clinical this spring in what has been a welcome continuation of his late-season surge in 2011. He is absolutely mashing right now, and seems poised to become a feared hitter this season.

In fact, Butler even showed up to  camp in good enough shape to convince Yost to give him an occasional start at first base. He appears ready to put together is best season yet. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

Alex Gordon – .405/.460/.643 with 2 home runs, 4 doubles and 6 walks.

Any lingering reservations about the long-term ability of Gordon should be put to rest by his torrid spring. I won’t take too much time breaking down Gordon, since I’m fairly sure that 99.9% of the fan base saw last season as a true breakout, but I must admit it’s been nice of him to spare us a spring worth of questions regarding his long-term prospects. This guy is ready to be the star he was always supposed to be.

Lorenzo Cain – .486/.537/.1000 with 4 home runs, 7 doubles, and 4 walks.

Lorenzo Cain's big Spring Training has been the real deal. Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

I thought Cain was too good for Triple-A last season and his scorching spring training performance this season will be taken as proof of that notion. Cain may be the most impressive Royal in Arizona right now, as his .500 spring average has just been ridiculous. I don’t think Lorenzo lamented playing in Omaha last season while Chris Getz and Mitch Maier earned major league paychecks. Oh wait, no, he definitely did.

Cain is proving that there is no fire quite like the one lit under somebody who is blocked for an entire season by wholly insufficient roster filler. Although even Cain must have understood how crazy it was that all three of KC’s outfielders had career years and stayed healthy throughout 2011.

Eric Hosmer – .367/.431/.571 with 2 homers, 4 doubles, 7 walks, and 17 RBI.

At this point it has almost become a bore to wax eloquently about Hosmer. He is one of a handful of the best young players in the game, and has also solidified himself as a clubhouse leader to boot. Interesting fact that made me like Hosmer even more this spring: he is half Cuban, and thus bilingual. It wasn’t hard to understand why Hosmer is the most popular player on the team before, but now it makes even more sense.

All that being said, is there a player you would trade Hosmer for straight up right now? I say no.

Greg Holland – 3.86 ERA with 7.0 IP, 11 strikeouts and 1 walk.

This spring Holland has shown exactly what he is. He’s a strikeout machine who is a could easily become a top-flight closer, perhaps as soon as this season. Holland is also the main reason why Royals fans seemed strangely ambivalent about the loss of closer Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery.

The bullpen should be one of the best in baseball this season, and Holland is the best of the bunch.

Alcides Escobar – .324/.359/.459 with 2 triples.

I’ve always believed that Escobar will eventually hit acceptably, so I can only hope that his spring performance is a sign of things to come. If so, then Escobar’s recently minted contract extension might be even more favorable than that of (recently injured) starting catcher Salvador Perez.

Luis Mendoza – 0.77 ERA with 11.2 IP, 12 strikeouts, and 1 walk.

Okay, I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Admittedly, I’ve frequently written Mendoza off as a rotation candidate before, but those days are over. The Royals have been insistent in their assertion that Mendoza has it figured out, and I finally believe them.

Furthermore, if Mendoza was “in the mix” for a rotation spot coming into March, then what has he possibly done to hurt his chances? Do I even need to mention that two Royals starters have put up an ERA over 20?

My prediction: Bruce Chen starts the season on the DL, Mendoza makes the rotation.

Bruce Chen – 15.00 ERA with 12 IP, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

Spoiler Alert! I think Chen might have some sort of injury, and if not, needs to fabricate on immediately. That two-year contract he signed in the off-season has an ominous feeling to it already. After a couple of above average seasons, Chen may be ready to become the rotation’s resident albatross.  I’d like to think he is simply taking time getting comfortable, but at his advanced age, it’s prudent to be skeptical. I hope I’m wrong.

Mike Moustakas – .216/.275/.243 with 1 extra base hit and 9 strikeouts.

Moustakas has had a rough spring, as is evidenced by the fact that his slugging percentage rest 32 points below his OBP.

Haven’t we seen this story before? I know it’s tempting to say that Moustakas will simply get through this and pick up where he left off last September, but I have a foreboding feeling that tells me otherwise. Moustakas may end up being more Alex Gordon than Billy Butler, as in, he might take some time to realize his considerable potential. Sure, he should be able to improve upon his Spring Training line (how could you not), but by how much*?

*Was that previous paragraph designed as  a complicated jinx intended to spark Moustakas into a fantastic April? Absolutely! I’m definitely ready for Opening Day.

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The Royals will likely ask Gordon to leadoff and aggressively run the bases in 2011 (Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

What is the job of a leadoff hitter?  His job is to get on base and score runs by any means possible.  It doesn’t matter if he gets a hit, a walk, forces an error, lays down a bunt, is hit by a pitch, bite, scratch, slash, burn, dive – anything to turn himself into a potential RBI.  Then, job number two is to move his way around the bases by getting good leadoffs, watching the pitchers’ moves, avoiding a pickoff, stealing when appropriate, taking the extra base when he can, and being aggressive.  Generally, the prototypical leadoff hitter is also fast, very very fast.

Who fits this description on the Royals roster?  Jarrod Dyson fits many pieces of this description, but his projected batting average is less than optimal, and he may not even make the major league roster.  Lorenzo Cain has the potential to fit the description, but he hasn’t demonstrated elite base stealing skills in the minors and we haven’t witnessed his abilities first hand for an extended period at the big league level yet.  How about Alcides Escobar?  Maybe, but then again, maybe not.  The Royals don’t currently have a player in the Willie Wilson mold, and they aren’t projected to have one for the foreseeable future.

So, why is Alex Gordon batting leadoff?

Alex Gordon is batting leadoff because last year he hit .303, he took 67 walks, he stole 17 bases (but was picked off 8 times), he banged out 45 doubles, he was hit by pitches 7 times, and he scored 101 runs.  (Plus 23 homers – Bonus!)  Alex knows how to get on base and he knows what to do once he gets there.  He isn’t the fastest guy on the team, but he’s not the slowest either, and he’s a good solid choice to hit leadoff.

The sight of Alex Gordon batting leadoff reminds me somewhat of former Royals coach Whitey Herzog’s decision to regularly place George Brett at the top of the order from 1977 – 1979.  Herzog’s theory was that nobody got on base more frequently than Brett and this would lead to increased opportunities for other batters to push him around and score runs.  I was an avid Royals fan in the 70’s and I must confess I wasn’t very excited about Brett batting leadoff.  Without conducting any research, my bias against this decision clouded my memory and I had assumed the Royals probably under-achieved with this approach.

I was skeptical of the decision to bat Brett at the top of the order because first of all we know George was able to hit for more than just average and on base percentage, he had power and the ability to stoke clutch base hits.  I assumed the Royals weren’t able to take advantage of this talent when placing him in a leadoff role with nobody on base.  And later in the game when he typically wasn’t leading off, he was hitting behind the batters in the bottom of the order who didn’t present as many RBI opportunities.  You would think that his RBI count would have gone down while batting first, but you’d be wrong.  Brett had 88 RBIs in 1977 (about average for his career) while playing in only 135 games, which projects to nearly 100 if he had played 155 games that season.  So, it doesn’t appear that batting first had any significant impact on his RBI total.

Brett was no slouch running the bases, but he wasn’t a burner either, so it would seem plausible that his run total would be reduced due to the difficulties he would face with scoring from first on a double, stretching a double into a triple, or challenging a strong outfield arm at the plate.  Once again, that thought would be wrong.  Brett scored the 3^rd most runs in the league in 1977.

While leading off 58% of the time (he only played in 139 games), Brett scored 105 runs in 1977 which was good for the 3^rd most in the American League that year behind Rod Carew who batted 3^rd for the Twins at 128 runs (in 155 games) and Carlton Fisk who started the season batting 8^th and finished the season batting 5th in the Red Sox order at 106 runs scored (in 152 games played.)   Hal McRae also scored 104 runs that year while batting primarily 2^nd in the order.  Brett and McRae – now that was a one/two punch!

Do you know what is conspicuously absent from a list of the American League top 8 in runs scored from 1977?  Prototypical leadoff hitters!  (None of them even batted at the top of the order!)  I don’t think anyone ever accused Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, or Bobby Bonds of burning up the base paths.  Rod Carew was fast, but not that fast.  These guys scored runs because they hit for average and they knew what to do when they got on base.  Their hitting skills and base running expertise permitted them to overcome their lack of blazing speed.

And how about the leaders of the 2011 season?  Of the Major League top ten in runs scored last year, only two of them regularly batted in the leadoff position or could be considered prototypical type leadoff hitters.  The rest of them were just like George Brett, Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Bobby Bonds, and Rod Carew in 1977.  You may recognize some of their names from 2011: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Jose Bautista.

Alex Gordon is following in the footsteps of many great leadoff hitters and run scoring leaders who didn’t quite fit the “perfect” mold and characteristics of a prototypical top-of-the-order athlete.  Gordon may not be the Royals leadoff hitter forever and my guess is his tenure in this role depends on what Lorenzo Cain does with the bat over the next few months.  Until then, I’m happy to watch Alex Gordon stride to the plate immediately after the umpire yells, “Play ball!”

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Lorenzo Cain has been on fire early in spring training action. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Through the first eleven games of spring, Lorenzo Cain is doing everything he can to make sure nobody ends up missing Melky Cabrera. Cain homered in the fifth inning off Sam LeClure and added a single earlier in the game. He’s 9-17 so far this spring with four doubles and three walks.

Cain will take over center field for the departed Cabrera who had over 200 hits for the Royals last year, but was traded to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez made his second start of the spring on Tuesday and struggled in his first inning of work, needing 34 pitches to get through the Reds lineup. In his first appearance as a Royal, he got one inning of work on 31 pitches. Sanchez settled down the rest of the way, pitching into the third inning. On the day he threw 51 pitches and 30 for strikes. He surrendered a homer to Jay Bruce and two inherited runners scored when Sanchez gave way to Everett Teaford in the third, but he made quick work of the Reds in the second inning, which is progress, even if slight.

Alex Gordon also homered for the second time this spring as part of a 16 hit attack by the Royals. Every player that came to the plate more than once got a hit.

Teaford didn’t have a run charged to himself, so his line looks like three scoreless innings. He got four strikeouts and three ground outs and benefited from a Gordon assist at the plate.

Jeremy Jeffress reportedly showed strong command of both his fastball and a changeup in two perfect innings. He struck out two. Jeffress is a forgotten part of what is a deep arsenal of relief pitchers in the Royals system. His stuff is impressive but he’s never had great control over it. If he’s made adjustments to harness his 99 mph fastball and a changeup that could be his better secondary pitch, according to some.

The biggest story from the game, though, was an early exit by Salvador Perez. After catching Sanchez in the first inning, Perez didn’t come out for the second inning. Reports state that he “tweaked” his knee before the game warming up Sanchez in the bullpen, and he was noticeably limping before the game. Ned Yost says he’s concerned but the Royals haven’t made any mention of Perez’s status of the extent of the injury, as they’re awaiting MRI results. The Royals are already short a catcher after Manuel Pina underwent knee surgery early in spring training. After signing a contract that could keep him in Kansas City for the majority of the next decade, it’s obvious that Perez is a key part of the Royals future. To have his first full season derailed early would be a rough blow to the organization.

There should be more information tomorrow on Perez. At best he’ll probably miss a couple of days. Mike Moustakas, who was hit by a pitch on the knee yesterday, was a late scratch as a precaution.

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Felipe Paulino helped his cause on Thursday. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Felipe Paulino started the game, his first appearance of the spring, and worked two good innings as he works to remain in the starting rotation. He reaped the benefits of inducing double plays in both innings and also coaxed another ground out while striking out one. Paulino should be safe when it comes down to deciding the rotation (barring injury), but having him put up a couple of good innings is good for his cause and, of course, good for the Royals.

Aaron Crow also saw his first action and was even better, striking out two and giving up just one walk in his two innings. He’s more of a longshot to crack the starting five and may just be better in the bullpen anyway, but the Royals are looking at him in case they’re pressed to use him in a larger role.

Jose Mijares, Tommy Hottovy, Louis Coleman, Brandon Sisk and Jeremy Jeffress each worked an inning and all but Hottovy recorded a strikeout. Altogether, the Royals pitchers handled the Rockies.

A few players continued hot streaks in early spring action. Lorenzo Cain had two hits and seems to be putting the ball in play every time up. That bodes well for him, as many have been concerned about his offensive ability as he tries to replace – somehow – a 200 hit season from Melky Cabrera. It’s still early and he could always slump the last three weeks of spring, but he’s been one of the more impressive players in the young Cactus League season.

Max Ramirez continued to rake, hitting his third spring homer and getting his seventh RBI. It’s still not likely that he’ll really push Brayan Pena for the backup job, but if he keeps hitting, the Royals won’t have a choice. Pena is out of options though so he’s got nowhere to go, and should be a decent enough backup for Salvador Perez.

As much as it pains me to say it, Yuniesky Betancourt homered and made some plays at second base. It seems my pleas for Irving Falu to be the utility player will go unanswered.

Alex Gordon also ripped a double to open the game.

The Royals made a number of outs on the basepaths, and have been getting thrown out in other games as well. Ned Yost made a point to be aggressive on the basepaths last year so that’s probably the plan this year too. My hunch is that the Royals are seeing what they can and can’t get away with now so it gives them an idea of what they should be aware of once the season starts. Last year’s team made a lot of things happen by being aggressive but they also ran themselves out of innings. That’s a tough balance to hit, but that’s also what spring training is for – to find it out.

The Royals will play the Reds tomorrow at 2:05 p.m. CST. Danny Duffy will make his first spring appearance.

Who will be the Royals starting second baseman on opening day? (Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals 2012 season is going to be like a good book or movie.  Lots of intersecting plotlines, intriguing drama, memorable heroes, wild action scenes, and despicable bad guys.  The major difference between this year and seasons past is that the story of the Royals in 2012 has the potential for a happy ending.  No other Royals season for the past umpteen years can say that.

Many of the story lines will be decided in the next several days, but others will hold our attention for months – and that’s another thing that makes this season different from most others.  If the story plays out the way we expect, we’ll still be watching and listening with rapt attention until the last game against the Tigers on October 3.

Here’s an enticing potential storyline for us to begin with.  What if (now just humor me for a moment, this could happen), what if the Royals are within 3 games of the Tigers when the final series with them begins on October 1?  Does it make this storyline even more fascinating if you know these games will be played in Kauffman stadium?  You couldn’t plan a better outcome for 2012, could you?  I bet just the thought of it has your juices flowing already.  I think it’s a very optimistic thought, and few if any Royals fans I know are expecting the team to be in contention down the stretch, but we’re all hoping for it aren’t we?  And I think all of us would say that it COULD happen, which makes this storyline one that will likely keep our attention well into the season.

And if you’re wondering why I’m using the Tigers as the team I’m suggesting will lead the AL Central this year, well… Verlander, Fielder, Cabrera – that’s why.

Who is going to play second base for the Royals this year?  The smart money is on Johnny Giavotella who finished the year at second last season, but it could be Chris Getz or (knock on wood), Yuniesky Betancourt.  Giavotella has the potential to be clearly the best hitter of this group, but his defense is suspect and he may still be recovering from surgery to correct a labral tear in his hip that hindered his ability to move side to side.  Alex Gordon underwent similar surgery in 2009 and so far, I’d say his defensive capabilities have not only recovered, but have contributed to raising his status to one of the top left fielders in the league.  (Who would you rather have in left field than Alex Gordon, MLB’s 24^th ranked player in 2011 according to ESPN’s player ranker?  No one?  That’s what I thought.)

Chris Getz has changed his “swing path” and his stride to the ball this Spring, which so far is showing promising results, but he’s still an underdog to usurp the position from Johnny.  One other frightening prospect is the hopefully very slight possibility that because both Getz and Giavotella have options remaining the Royals have the flexibility to send either Johnny or Chris to Omaha (or both – Yikes!) and let so-called utility player Yuniesky Betancourt play second base.  (I say “so-called” because he’s never really played all the positions he’s being asked to backup.  And why would we want him to anyway?)   Without going into great detail in this post regarding how I feel about this possibility, you can read what I think here.  You can also read how Kevin Scobee feels about it here.  Suffice it to say, it alarms both of us.

Will the Royals still be in the race at the All Star break?  I just finished writing (or maybe dreaming) in the 3^rd paragraph that the Royals could potentially be within 3 games of the Tigers at the end of the season, so obviously I think the Royals will be in the race at the All Star break.  There are many positive and negative aspects of a team comprised of mostly young, enthusiastic, but somewhat inexperienced players.  The energy that comes off this team is infectious and I love watching them chest bump each other and feed off of their teammates’ play.  But teams like this can be emotional, and streaky, and an 8 game losing streak could jeopardize everything they’re trying to accomplish.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer share a little love (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

Will one of the Royals beat Steve Balboni’s 1985 single season 36 home run record?  (Balboni also led the league in strikeouts that year with 166.  Ay caramba!)  There are few records in baseball that are begging to be broken more than this one.  I know Kauffman stadium is a pitcher’s park, but come on guys, somebody needs to break this record, please!  Mike Moustakas has the pedigree to break the record.  He hit 52 homes runs during his high school career (a California state record) and he led all minor league players with 36 home runs in 2010 while playing in just 118 games.  Back in late January, one of the guys on the MLB Networks’ Inside Pitch program predicted that Eric Hosmer would eventually win the triple crown.  I believe both Moose and Hoz have the potential to break the record, and very possibly both of them will break the record…  someday, but probably not in 2012.

Will Alex Gordon repeat his All Star worthy performance from 2011?  The respected ZiPS projection system has Gordon pegged to backslide from his 2011 performance and end 2012 with a .278/.358/.464 line (he hit .303/.376/.502 in 2011) and 20 home runs.  Those stats are decent, particularly for a guy expected to turn in a strong defensive performance, but probably not All Star worthy.  On the other hand, I think ZiPS may rely too heavily on past performance when creating their calculations and not enough on the intangibles or the fact that someone “figured it out.”  If you look up “figured it out” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Alex Gordon.

Few people have come into the league with higher expectations or potential and in my opinion it has been more of a surprise that Gordon hasn’t been performing at an All Star level prior to 2011 than it should be a surprise if he performs at an All Star level in 2012.  In addition, I believe his chances of making the squad this year are increased because many people took notice last year to how loudly RoyalNation squawked when Gordon didn’t make the team and this should raise his visibility a little in 2012.  Put me down as a believer and firmly in the camp of disagreeing with ZiPS, at least where Gordon is concerned.  I think he’ll be hovering around .290/.295 by the All Star break with 12-14 dingers, which should be good enough for consideration.

Will the Royals place more than one player on the All Star team?  We all know Gordon was robbed last year, but in all likelihood, if he had been selected to the All Star team Aaron Crow probably wouldn’t have gone.  One of the drawbacks of having a young team is that few people know about you and it’s hard for your players to get votes in Baltimore or Phoenix if the fans don’t recognize their names.  And if the fans don’t vote for them, no All Star manager is going to select more than one Royal when he can nominate players from his own team.  And Ron Washington will probably have plenty of deserving Rangers to pick from.

Until the Royals make the playoffs and put themselves on a national stage, I can’t imagine one of them getting the most votes, so I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.  But, there is one possible wild card in the selection process this year – the game will be played in Kansas City at Kauffman stadium.  If Ron Washington wants to make a good impression with the home crowd, he could possibly pick an extra player from the Royals.  The only way to ensure this happens is if a couple of the Royals step up and earn it, forcing his hand to the point that he would have no alternative but to select a couple of the boys in blue.

Will one of the Royals promising minor league pitchers join the rotation?  There are several young pitchers in the minor leagues that could earn the right to be considered for the rotation in 2012.  Many people believe Mike Montgomery is the most likely candidate for this honor, although consensus opinion is that unless he’s “lights out” in Spring Training, he’ll begin the season at AAA.  Going back to ZiPS, they predict that if Montgomery plays for the Royals in 2012, his line will be almost identical to Danny Duffy’s, beginning with a projected ERA of 4.92.  Between you and me, I’d be very happy if Mike could achieve that in his first major league season, although based on his performance in Omaha last year, I’d be mildly shocked if he did that well.

Not including the pitchers who’ve played at least a few games already in KC, there are several additional guys that could make the club sometime in 2012, including John Lamb (his 2011 Tommy John surgery makes his 2012 debut unlikely, although not impossible), Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer, and a few others.  I’m very excited for these guys to all earn their way to KC, but in my opinion, none of them deserve a promotion yet and with the probable exception of Mike Montgomery, I don’t think we’ll see any of them in the starting rotation in Kansas City in 2012.

Will Lorenzo Cain be able to fill Melky Cabrera’s shoes?  If you consider that a player’s value is more than just his production at the plate, I say yes, Lorenzo Cain will be very close to Melky’s equal in 2012.  (Mike Engel said that Melky won’t even be Melky’s equal in 2012, so there’s that.)  Cain plays lights out defense, and while he hasn’t spent enough time at the Major League level to prove himself yet, he’s at least shown that he can hold his own at the plate.  ZiPS says Cain will bat .258 this year, but I think that’s a pessimistic prediction.  I may be surprised, but if the Royals don’t break .500 this year, I’m confident it won’t be because of Lorenzo Cain.

Will the Royals break .500 this year?  As we all know, the last time the Royals broke .500 was in 2003.  Most of the oddsmakers have the Royals pegged at 79-81 wins in 2012, and these are the people who make their living off of predictions like this.  We all know that a clutch double or a blown call can make the difference between at least a couple of games each year, so yes, it’s very, very possible the Royals could break .500 this year.  I’m saying 83 wins this year, and a playoff run in 2013, which I believe is realistic.

Will Sports Illustrated eat their words?  A few weeks ago, I was infuriated by a Sports Illustrated article entitled “Hope Doesn’t Spring Eternal for These Teams”, which listed the Royals, Orioles, A’s, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs as the teams that never have any chance of competing.  The writer of this story obviously knows nothing about baseball history and the periods of time where the major leagues were dominated by the Royals, Orioles, and A’s, and the unexpected championships of the Mets.  And there are more Cub fans who dream of bringing home the trophy each year than there are grains of sand on the beach.

Let’s all answer this together – How many World Series have the Red Sox won in the past 90+ years?  Two.  How many championships have the Rangers won in their entire existence?  None.  How many times have the gigantic market Angels hung the flag in the past 51 years?  One time, the same as the Royals.  If you want to get all caught up in “what have you done for me lately?” then let’s throw all the teams into the pot and consider them equally, and not just the teams that it has become politically correct to bash.

But, beyond these historical slights, the writer obviously hasn’t kept up with what’s been happening in Kansas City in 2012.  Not only are Royals fans fired up beyond any year in recent memory, but the Royals have a very realistic chance to compete, and if a handful of breaks go their way I could see them in contention right up to the wire.  I think it’s highly probable that Sports Illustrated will have no choice but to pay more attention to Kansas City before this season is over.

Spring Training has begun and it feels like we’re watching a preview of coming attractions.  It’s almost time for the book to be opened, the movie to begin, and the curtain to be drawn on the 2012 Royals season.  It’s been years since Kansas City had so many baseball storylines to watch, and longer since the storylines could potentially hold our interest for months to come.  I for one can’t wait.  Get your popcorn ready!

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Alcides Escobar is a focus for the Royals Front Office. (Photo Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

With all this talk of extensions for young players, I really got to thinking hard about who comes first in this arrangement. Who’s the most important piece to sign? What positions are most necessary? Who has both the skill and the attitude that makes them an integral part of the puzzle going forward?

We already know the first answer. Salvador Perez was signed early last week to a nice 5-year, $7 million contract with a few option years tacked on. It’s the classic case of a low-cost, high-reward extension. It’s been covered extensively, so I don’t want to focus too much on that.

Instead, I just want to think about who comes next.

The young players in camp have made the fanbase put quite a bit of emphasis on signing some long-term. There are the obvious ones — Eric Hosmer — and the ones you think you want, though you want to see a bit more from them first — Mike Moustakas and Danny Duffy. But there are always some that you forget about before you realize they’re gone.

Well, yesterday I bluntly said (on Twitter) that I thought Alcides Escobar should be a focus. When some followers presented legitimate cases why that shouldn’t be so, I sat and thought about it a little more. And then I made up a list of the order I’d want guys signed in, which, oddly enough, follows the early part of the Royals’ desire for extensions (according to Buster Olney of ESPN):

Alex Gordon
Alcides Escobar
Eric Hosmer
Danny Duffy
Mike Moustakas
Greg Holland
Aaron Crow
Johnny Giavotella
Louis Coleman
Lorenzo Cain

We’ll see where that takes us. The first disclaimer is that 2012 performances will obviously juggle this list a bit. Should Cain be a rockstar in centerfield, he’ll vault up the list. Should Holland throw it in the dirt every time, he’ll go down. It’s all relative. Still, I think the first five are set in stone for me.

Gordon is obvious. I’m not going to belabor that point or say again what’s already been said.

The case for Alcides Escobar is much like that for Sal. He plays great defense at a premium defensive position. That alone gets guys long-term contracts. So far in his career, his bat (.252/.294/.339) has been less than stellar, not quite matching his production (.298/.353/.409) at AAA Nashville (Go Sounds!). I can’t really say that his production will shoot through the roof once he gets more time since he’s had two full seasons in the majors, but he did take a small step forward in 2011. Should he take another one, well, there won’t be any debate. And since we’ve given Sal a deal without knowing for sure if he’ll be a great batter or a subpar one, I’m not really sure why Escobar gets the shaft in that respect. He’s a great defensive player at a premium defensive position. A Sal-like contract wouldn’t be out of the question at all, if the Royals could get it.

So, given those three, the Royals would have two core pieces of their defense and a (hopefully) strong piece of their offensive locked up alongside Billy Butler.

I would think the Hosmer debate is obvious, though some may question why he’s not higher. To be frank, I believe the Royals will look for that perfect opportunity to sign him, whenever that is. With Boras in tow, he’ll probably wait until he’s garnered MVP votes or become an All-Star or whatever the case is. So, again, it just comes down to when the Royals find the right time to get him. And they’ll likely have an easier job with Escobar than with Hosmer.

For Duffy and Moustakas, they need to produce. Reports out of camp are good for both of them, from what I’ve seen, and we’ll see if that translates to the regular season. I love both of these guys, but if they don’t take a step forward over a full season, it’ll be hard to justify the contract extensions right now. In Moustakas’ case, Cheslor Cuthbert looks like he could be the incumbent should Moustakas fall, and that provides some insurance that might make it more difficult to go for that extension. Just depends on how the Royals feel about it. And Duffy’s case is that he could be a great pitcher for the Royals for many years and seems to want to be a Royal for many, many years, but he still has to produce. With some issues with other lefties in the organization right now, he’s got the limelight, but should they jump forward and pass him, it gets tougher.

The rest of the list is sort of all over the place. I feel like we need to anchor down the bullpen, a la the Joakim Soria contract years ago, if these guys can stay strong. Holland, Crow, and Coleman all have legitimate cases to stick around for years, and if they throw out another good season, they may end up doing just that.

As for Giavotella and Cain, both are guys that need to hit to stay. In Cain’s case, his defense can save him a bit. In Gio’s case, he needs to hit since his defense isn’t quite as strong. Cain will reach arbitration sooner, but locking up that center fielder for years, should he play well, could be as strong an interest to the Royals as Sal and Escobar are. Like with Gio, we just have to wait and see what he does this year. For a lot of these guys, a lot rides on their ability to stay in the game and play well in 2012.

Well, that’s what I think about it. Like I say, that list can get juggled depending on performance. When Wil Myers hits, he’ll slot in somewhere, but I don’t think that’ll be extremely soon.

Feel free to tell me why I’m crazy or how you’d rank them in the comments below.

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"Country Breakfast" Billy Butler connects on an 0-2 pitch for a 2 run homer Sunday. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

After months of offseason workouts and a week of full camp and intrasquad games, the Royals finally faced a different opponent on Sunday.

They jumped on the board early, as Billy Butler ripped a two-run homer to left off Rangers starter Colby Lewis. With Johnny Giavotella on base after a walk, Butler turned on an 0-2 pitch for the Royals first runs of the Cactus League season.

It was all they would need.

Luis Mendoza got the first crack at the Rangers lineup and threw two scoreless innings, walking one while striking out another. The only hit he surrendered came on a ball that got through to left field, just out of reach of Alcides Escobar. He retired four batters on ground balls.

The Royals added four more runs in the fifth inning after Lorenzo Cain opened the inning with a hustling double. He scored on a bloop single by Alex Gordon, who moved to third on a Johnny Giavotella double to left. Eric Hosmer got a ball through to center field that was ruled as an error on Ian Kinsler, but Gordon and Giavotella scored. Singles by Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas scored Hosmer for the Royals sixth run.

The Rangers lone run came on a solo homer by Mitch Moreland off Sean O’Sullivan in the sixth. The Rangers only managed to advance one  other player past first.

Kelvin Herrera closed out the game against the Rangers reserves by striking out two of the three batters he faced.

Wil Myers reached on an infield single in his only at bat. David Lough and Clint Robinson also added singles once the starters came out of the game after five innings.

Cain and Giavotella are both looking for a strong spring to ensure their job security. Cain is pretty safe, but Giavotella is being pushed by Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt. Giavotella drew the team’s only walk and both players had two hits apiece. Getz and Betancourt, however, went 0-4 combined and didn’t get the ball out of the infield.

The Royals and Rangers play again tomorrow afternoon in Surprise at 2:05 CST. Bruce Chen is scheduled to start for the Royals and pitch two innings.

The scorecard* is below:

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*Scorecard Note: Because it’s spring training, I’m trying out the iScore app on my tablet for the first time. It worked great, other than my own mistake of not entering a full roster of Royals, so when Wil Myers pinch hit for Billy Butler in the seventh inning, it wouldn’t let me go back into the team options and add him to the day’s lineup. So other than that one area, it’s intact. I was going off of the radio broadcast as well while scoring the game, so I half-heartedly tried to monitor pitch locations, and when all the reserves came in at once, it took me an inning to get them entered (after not having them in at first). Due to that, the pitch counts aren’t accurate late. Like I said, it’s spring training, so going forward, I should be able to get all players in beforehand now that I know how chaotic it is to add nine reserves in the middle of an inning.

Dayton Moore processing. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s easy to make fun of Dayton Moore for his use of the term Process. There’s a lot of talk about “trusting the Process” and sticking with the Process. In a way, it smacks of having a secret plan to fight inflation (a la Josh Lyman in The West Wing). While there’s obviously a plan in place for the minor leagues (build up scouting and player development; sign high-ceiling draftees who pass through due to money concerns; build up through Latin America), he still has to field a team for the big leagues where it all counts.

At various points, Moore has stated the areas that he sees as most important to a winning ballclub:

• Be strong up the middle.
• “Every championship team has a legit #3 and #4 hitter.”
• “You can never have enough starting pitching.”

Those aren’t the only elements, but they’re the ones Moore likes to mention. While he’s built up the farm system that is now starting to blossom and grow at the big league level, some of these pieces weren’t close to the big leagues as recently as 15 months ago.

Be strong up the middle

This is awfully close to a baseball cliche, but I’ll let it slide this time due to my perception that, hey, I agree with it. Middle infielders have more chances on defense to make a play*. For instance, in the American League in 2011, middle infielders had over 10,000 total chances for both of the shortstop and second base positions. Third baseman combined for just over 6000 chances. In the outfield, center fielders combined for 5777 fielding chances – more than a thousand opportunities than left fielders or right fielders had. Since fielders up the middle have the ball in their area more often, it’s beneficial to have them capable of making the plays.

*First basemen technically get more chances, but most of those are putouts based on assists from other infielders. 

A solid catcher is vital as well, both for preventing stolen bases but also for working with the pitchers.

At the end of November 2010, the Royals had the option of Mitch Maier or Gregor Blanco or Jarrod Dyson as their center fielder going into 2011. All three are capable defenders, and in Dyson’s case, he’s the best of the group, but all three lack in their offensive potential. Moore signed Melky Cabrera – who isn’t a good defensive player but obviously worked out with the bat.

Then the Zack Greinke trade rumors started to swirl around. Moore made it known that he wanted “up-the-middle position players who are near major league ready” for the 2009 Cy Young winner.

Before Christmas, he’d gotten his wish, acquiring Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar to fill those gaps. While the Royals promised Melky playing time (having not expected to gain another center fielder in a trade at the time), Cain had a shot to win the job. Escobar was Milwaukee’s top shortstop prospect the day he signed with them and was their best overall prospect for a couple of years.

Now, heading into 2012, Cain is set to be the opening day center fielder and his defensive abilities are much greater than Cabrera’s. He’s got a chance to be productive at the plate as well (though anyone expecting 200 hits – from Cain or Cabrera – is probably going to be left wanting). Escobar could be the best defensive shortstop in the league. Despite some lapses at times last year, he showed great range, a strong arm and good instincts. If he hits at all, he’ll be of great value.

The Royals locked up their catcher of the future earlier in the week, but even back in December of 2010, Salvador Perez was still working his way up, getting his chance to be the top catching prospect due to Wil Myers shifting to the outfield. The last piece of the defense up the middle – Johnny Giavotella – is the one spot that doesn’t quite fit the narrative. While Giavotella should be fine with the bat, his fielding has been suspect. Or, more accurately, he’s not expected to be among the elite. I think he’ll work his way into being average at the position, which should be fine.

“Every championship team has a legit #3 and #4 hitter.”

Eric Hosmer.

Touch 'em all, Eric. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Lets face it, I don’t really have to convince you about Eric Hosmer’s abilities, right? He’s going to hit third or fourth for the next fifteen years.

Now, the #4 option will take some convincing for some, but the Royals are secure in making Billy Butler their cleanup man. Might as well be the man known as Country Breakfast.

“You can never have enough starting pitching.”

This is one of Dayton’s favorite lines. It’s also where the “to do list” isn’t quite done. Trading Greinke in December 2010 didn’t help and Gil Meche retiring wiped out the Royals two best starters since 2008. They opened 2011 with Luke Hochevar on the mound and a mix of others filling in while most of the pitching prospects were still yet to start in Triple A. The Paulino pickup last summer and Sanchez trade helped and Danny Duffy made the jump, so the rotation looks better on paper at least.

Moore made it clear that he was looking at trades as a primary source for starting pitching if the Royals were to upgrade this offseason. Free agency would be next, though clearly the Royals didn’t go that route.

They may not have to, either.

For all the woes that the starting pitching provided last year, if you consider only those starts by returning pitchers – Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy – and remove the slough that is Kyle Davies and company*and the group had a 4.49 ERA. The AL average for starters was 4.43.

*not to discourage Nate Adcock fans – he had two good starts out of his three last year, but that third wasn’t so great.

If (and it’s a big if) the rotation can see improvement from Paulino and Duffy and if Jonathan Sanchez can return to what he was in 2010, the Royals will be set. Additionally, they also have Mike Montgomery and Aaron Crow as potential fits for the starting five, and even Everett Teaford and Luis Mendoza had strong 2011 seasons that could put them in the mix.

It’s not quite Atlanta during the 1990s, but the Royals probably won’t be resorting to the Scott Elartons, Jose Limas and Luke Hudsons out there to fill in the gaps.

And that’s just for 2012. In 2013, Will Smith (an under-discussed favorite of mine), Jake Odorizzi, John Lamb (hopefully), Chris Dwyer and perhaps Noel Arguelles could all be fighting for a spot in camp.

...processing...processing... Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I won’t say that Moore has landed three out of three here, but in just over a year, he’s managed to stock up the middle of the field, entrenched his bruisers in the middle of the lineup and the pitching, well, it could be worse. That’ll have to do for now, but by the end of the year, there may be optimism that all three goals will be checked off.

Then – we hope – the real fun starts.

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Keep Your Eyes on Johnny Giavotella (Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One morning last week, as I slipped out of my hotel room and found my USA Today waiting for me, I noticed the headline “50 Names to Keep an Eye on for 2012″. Of course, like any fan, I wanted to see how many of my guys were on that list. Especially since this is what Royals fans are hedging the future of the franchise on – guys to keep an eye on.

#1 on the list is Yu Darvish of the Rangers, who has been a dominant pitcher for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. He was 18-6 last year with a 1.44 ERA and a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 276 – 36. Everyone will be watching to see if the talent follows the hype across the Pacific Ocean.

I was happy to find four of our guys on the list, good for second-most next to Oakland. You know that the A’s are always going to be at or near the top of a list like this, but recently, the Royals have been as well. The A’s have five on the list, including Brad Peacock, who was 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 3 starts for Washington last season. The Mariners also have four prospects on the list (the Royals top them in aggregate score, 98-93) including Catcher Jesus Montero, who the Yankees traded away. Odds are that Montero will DH for the M’s in 2012 after slugging .590 in limited action last season.

All in all, 14 clubs have multiple players on the list, and a total of 26 teams are represented with at least one player to keep an eye on. The Phillies, Tigers, Twins, Mets, and Yankees were shut out. Apparently, they won’t have to keep an eye out for anyone in the state of New York this year. Also, this would appear to be good for Royals fans, having two other AL Central teams with little coming down the pipeline. It can be a bit misleading though, because the Tigers have experience and aren’t banking on prospects for their title run.

As for the Royals on the list?

-#12. 2B Johnny Giavotella, 24: “He’s a solid defender, but he’ll succeed because of his offense. He hits. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out. And he might have the most energy among the three infielders promoted last year.”
Giavotella was the Royals’ Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2011, despite his August call-up and 46 games in KC. His walk to strikeout ratio was impressive in Omaha (40 BB/57 K), but he’ll need to improve upon that at the big league level, as he walked just 6 times compared to 32 strikeouts.

-#14. C Salvador Perez, 21: “Even if he doesn’t repeat the hitting as the starter this year, he’s a strong defender. His success could depend on whether major league pitchers exploit his reluctance to walk.”
Perez surprised everyone by hitting as well as he did during his time in Kansas City last year. He’ll have to be ready to make some serious adjustments and be ready for what American League pitching coaches have been cooking up for him over the winter. When they speak of Perez’s reluctance to walk, he showed that more in Arkansas and Omaha than in Kansas City. He walked just 16 times in the minors last year, and drew 7 walks in a third of the time while in KC.

-#32. OF Lorenzo Cain, 25: “He was the one who was left behind last year as Kansas City moved its collection of prospects into the majors”
We know that Cain was “left behind” only because the Royals were stacked in the Outfield in 2011. I’m sure that at the beginning of the year, he was on Dayton’s list along with the guys who did make it to the show. Nobody could have predicted any or all three of last year’s starters’ success, which kept Cain out of Kansas City for all but just 6 games. With Melky Cabrera gone, the path is clear for Cain to shine in Kansas City. As the starter going into spring training, he’ll need to prove that he’s worthy before the Royals break camp.

-#48. RHP Kelvin Herrera, 22: “The Kansas City bullpen is full of young talent, but hard-throwing Herrera is among those with the best chance of eventually taking over for closer Joakim Soria.”
While in the minors last year, Herrera spent time in A, AA, & AAA uniforms. He pitched in 45 games and racked up 70 strikeouts in 67 2/3 Innings. He made his big league debut on September 21st and earned a Loss. He gave up 3 Runs in his inning of work. He was better four days later, but in a total of 2 innings for the Royals last year, he did not strike out one batter. In order for him to be successful, he’s going to have to figure out what worked for him in the minors and make that happen against big league hitting. The Royals need Herrera to be reliable if there’s any chance of seeing him as a closer in the future.

(#49 on the list is Bryce Harper…)

Now, I know that lists are sometimes lists for lists sake. It’s almost impossible for someone to sit down & come up with a list like this. Like coming up with the “Top 50 songs of all time” or the “Top 10 Steak Restaurants in America”, it’s simply a conversation starter. There’s no way to truly measure it. Nobody will scrutinize this list at the end of the season and hold its author responsible. Know this though – we will surely be watching these guys (and many others) in Kansas City. Now, maybe others will as well. The bottom line is that if we’re all watching, these guys need to show us something.

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Johnny Giavotella should hit behind Gordon. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

As spring training got underway, Ned Yost made an early mention of his vision for the Royals starting lineup. Like last year, he sees Alex Gordon as his leadoff hitter.

Gordon doesn’t fit the typical image of what one might think upon mention of the phrase “leadoff hitter”. Often, that produces the thought of the scrappy, quick player who would open up the game with a drag bunt and try to steal second.

Despite that, Gordon is best suited for the spot at the top of the lineup because he does exactly what a leadoff hitter should do – get on base. Gordon’s .376 on base percentage led all Royals regulars last year. When batting leadoff (as Gordon did for 89 games), he got on base at a slightly better rate (.383) but also produced a .916 OPS. Gordon in the leadoff spot produced in 2011.

Ned Yost discussed what qualities Gordon has that made him a great leadoff hitter when talking with Dick Kaegel of Royals.com – his ability to take walks, drive the ball and produce when the lineup comes back around. Gordon was the most productive player on the Royals last year at the plate, and leading him off also gets him more plate appearances over the course of the season.

For the rest of the lineup, there aren’t a lot of surprises. Behind Gordon, the Kansas City Star projects the rest of the lineup:

1. Alex Gordon – See above.
2. Johnny Giavotella – Yost told Kaegel that Giavotella’s ability to spray the ball the other way and can take pitches makes him a good fit for the second spot. The first half of that, I agree with, though Gio saw 3.65 pitches per plate appearance last year, below the league average of 3.81. It’s a small difference, but it’s still below average. Perhaps after seeing time last year at the big league level and with the knowledge that he’s slated to be the starter will allow him to settle into that role as #2 hitter.
3. Eric Hosmer – Hosmer will probably be hitting in the #3 spot for the next, oh, 15 years or so. He’s the centerpiece of the offense and after a strong rookie campaign, he’s got the highest ceiling of anyone on the team.
4. Billy Butler – After the All-Star Break in 2011, Butler had more RBIs (57) than every other major league hitter except for Robinson Cano (61), Matt Kemp (59) and Evan Longoria (tied with Butler). Of that group, Butler’s 37 extra base hits finished second behind Cano’s 40. I think he can handle the cleanup spot.
5. Mike Moustakas – Moose hopes to build on his blistering finish to 2011. He’ll likely bat fifth against right-handed pitchers. In 267 plate appearances against righties, Moose had a respectable .289/.327/.414 line. When lefties are on the mound, he didn’t fare nearly as well (.191/.258/.236) so when a southpaw is on the mound he’ll hit sixth in place of …
6. Jeff Francoeur – Over the course of his career, Francoeur has hit left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. Last year, he wasn’t too bad against righties, but his best matchup is against a left-handed pitcher (.934 OPS in 2011, .839 career).
7. Salvador Perez – While Gordon’s batting average might slip a little bit and Francoeur could always regress a bit, the one player from last year who is least likely to repeat his numbers from 2011 is Perez. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the potential to be a productive batter, though. His .362 BABIP is rarely sustainable over the course of a full season and he may end up having some streaky moments in 2012. He isn’t one to look for a walk, so he might go through stretches where he doesn’t get on base often.
8. Lorenzo Cain – For me, I’d look to bat Cain seventh ahead of Perez. Cain’s speed is tough to utilize if he’s behind a plodder like Perez. He might strike out more than most would want to see, but he’s been a solid hitter through the minors and did well in half a season in Milwaukee in 2010. He’s going to have trouble duplicating Melky Cabrera‘s 2011 numbers in 2012, but let’s face it, so is Melky Cabrera.
9. Alcides Escobar – While the expectations for his bat are low, Escobar hit well enough last year to be of value, especially considering his defensive play. Nobody should be surprised to see him batting ninth all season, but he does still have some room to grow as a hitter. Last year, he had more than 30 extra base hits, stole 26 bases and had stretches of great production. He could walk more, as he reached base at Getz-ian levels.

There’s no solid option for the #2 spot, but Giavotella is probably the best fit considering the rest of the lineup’s makeup. Cain isn’t an ideal #2 hitter but may end up there if Giavotella struggles. If Gio struggles in Surprise, it may put Getz or Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup more often. That probably sticks Cain in the two spot.

The bottom of the lineup is saturated with right-handed batters, which might cause problems in late situations, but the Royals have lefty Mitch Maier on the bench and switch-hitting Brayan Pena if it comes to it.

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I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

Despite Tommy John surgery in 2011, Kevin Goldstein named John Lamb as one of his top 101 prospects in baseball. Photo: James Lamb

As you may know, Kevin Goldstein is one of the bigger names in online baseball commentary. In the wee small hours of the morning, he released his Top 101 overall prospects in baseball, listing five players from the Royals system:

• 19. Wil Myers
• 27. Bubba Starling
• 47. Jake Odorizzi
• 82. John Lamb
• 83. Cheslor Cuthbert

Conspicuously absent is Mike Montgomery.

When we talked to Goldstein on the Royalman Report in November, he’d listed Montgomery as a three star prospect and sixth among Royals prospects. At the time, it was a simple matter that Montgomery hadn’t pitched very well for his lowered ranking, but Goldstein conceded that the upside was still there, but the likelihood of Montgomery’s reaching that ceiling had lessened. (And it’s notable that Eric Hosmer wasn’t on Goldstein’s top 101 going into 2010, so it’s never a perfect list.)

This afternoon, Goldstein was on 610 Sports with Nick Wright and pointed out that Montgomery hasn’t been a great pitcher since the middle of 2010. The lefty had run over minor league batters to that point, but arm soreness put him on the disabled list twice. Then he struggled in 2011.

Even after a rough 2011 in Double A, Goldstein is big on Wil Myers, and despite Tommy John surgery, he likes John Lamb too. On 610, he also mentioned that Chris Dwyer is a prospect who could still be good.

Other mentions:

• Goldstein is a Lorenzo Cain fan and thinks his combination of speed, defense and decent offensive production could result in a season that could come close to what Melky Cabrera accomplished overall in 2011.
• Eric Hosmer could be even better this year than we expect. Goldstein mentioned he expects multiple All-Star appearances and MVP opportunities. He said .300 and 25+ homers is an annual possibility.
• For Goldstein, Mike Moustakas is the most interesting player coming into 2012. Last year, Moose made adjustments to hit better but the power wasn’t there. This year, the goal is to continue to hit with those adjustments in mind while adding the power back into his approach.

Follow Goldstein on Twitter – he has great information, and if you’re not 100% baseball-minded, he tosses in some pop culture commentary as well.

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