Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura (73) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

MiLB.com pointed out two of the Royals full-season affiliates as they picked out the minor leagues’ best starting rotations. They picked Northwest Arkansas in the Texas League as one:

• Yordano Ventura
• Jason Adam
• J.C. Sulbaran
• Noel Arguelles

Wilmington in the Carolina League was the other rotation:

• Kyle Zimmer
• John Lamb
• Sam Selman
• Kyle Smith

Side note: Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery were a part of the Durham Bulls’ International League-best rotation.

Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus did a final wrap up of what he saw on the backfields in Arizona while scouting out prospects. He had high praise for the usual suspects. On Zimmer, he stated he had #2 starter stuff and raved about his curveball. He also heaped praise upon Adalberto Mondesi calling him a “monster prospect in the making”. It wasn’t all big names, though. He made a point to mention Lexington’s Michael Antonio as a prospect with some tools but more development to do and brought up Aroni Nina as a big arm in Low A. There are more prospects mentioned, as well.

Royals Review’s Jeff Zimmerman shot some video in Surprise of Bubba Starling, Mondesi, Elier Hernandez and Cameron Gallagher. I won’t repost all of Jeff’s videos, but here’s a teaser of Elier Hernandez:

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Christian Colon (72) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Lee Warren’s covering the Omaha Storm Chasers again for Yahoo Sports and one of his recent pieces shed some light on Christian Colon‘s approach after suffering a fluke injury to his eye last year. Colon rebounded, playing well in the Puerto Rican Winter League and showing no ill effects of the injury. The key quote gives us an idea of what the Royals may do with him, position-wise. He told Warren that he anticipates playing 60 percent shortstop in Triple A and 40 percent at second. With Colon, Johnny Giavotella, Irving Falu, and Anthony Seratelli, Omaha isn’t hurting for middle infielders.

If you’re looking for a particular prospect during full season play, we’ve got the full opening rosters lined up here and Jen Nevius will be providing nightly updates on how the Royals affiliates are performing.

That winter, the Royals were bestowed the titled of best minor league system on Planet Earth and landed nine prospects on Baseball America’s top 100 list. Montgomery and Lamb were both in the top 20. Duffy was #68, then-newly-acquired Jake Odorizzi was #69, and Chris Dwyer (who’d made four starts for the Naturals) was #83.

All five were tantalizingly close to the majors entering 2011. Montgomery gave up one run and struck out seven batters in nine innings that spring. He walked eight batters as well, but there was still he may have had a shot to open up the year on the big league roster or at least be a call-up in the first half. Danny Duffy opened the year in Omaha and struck out 48 batters in 42 innings and was in Kansas City in late May 2011. Odorizzi started the year striking everything out in the Carolina League and landed in Double A to finish the year. Lamb had a 3.09 ERA through eight starts. Dwyer, well, he came out struggling in 2011, but you can’t win them all, right?

Of course we know how this story ends. Lamb needed Tommy John surgery after those eight starts. Duffy would need it about a year after Lamb’s. Montgomery fell off the radar with control issues and Odorizzi made steady improvements but still didn’t make the majors until September of 2012 and even then was coddled by facing only the Indians (who still smacked him around a little in two starts). Dwyer is still struggling and has battled back issues and a thyroid problem last year. Montgomery and Odorizzi were traded. The Royals won’t see Duffy until June at the earliest. Lamb isn’t any closer to the big leagues.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura (73) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

But the system keeps churning and there’s depth rising through the ranks now. Once again, Northwest Arkansas could be the focus of the next great pitching hopes.

Earlier today, Paul Nielson of NWAOnline.com passed along news from Eric Edelstein, GM of the Naturals, that Lamb could be the opening day starter for the club and that 2012 first round pick Kyle Zimmer could start out in the NWA rotation as well in 2013. They would likely also be joined by Yordano Ventura, who’s pitching well in spring training, but only had six starts at Double A last season, and Jason Adam, who J.J. Picollo basically confirmed as headed to Double A in 2013 after Adam handled High A last year.

Here’s that potential rotation with ages on April 4, 2013:

• John Lamb (22)
• Yordano Ventura (21)
• Jason Adam (21)
• Kyle Zimmer (21)

Noel Arguelles (23 years old) may start out there as well. So far he’s throwing harder this spring, but his command is still off. Robinson Yambati (22 years old) is another possibility, though most of his success in 2012 was out of the bullpen.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher John Lamb (38) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Again, that group is tantalizingly close. If Lamb can get back on track, he’s very likely to be in Triple A before the All-Star break and has an outside shot of hitting Kansas City in September. Ventura’s name has popped up repeatedly all winter to the point that there’s suggestion that they want to see him in Kansas City by the end of the year as well. Zimmer would be skipping High A Wilmington entirely if Edelstein’s hunch is correct.

Zimmer had just six starts with Low A Kane County last year and the jump from High A to Double A is steep enough. If he shows the Royals what they want to see in minor league camp to where they feel confident in that sort of jump, that’s an aggressive move. Scouts love his stuff and delivery, but he’s only been pitching for a few years after converting in college. He doesn’t have a lot of experience on the mound. He doesn’t have long-term bad habits either.

But pushing Zimmer to Double A signals a message from the Royals that they expect these guys to be pushing for a spot in the rotation as early as 2014 (assuming everyone stays healthy and has the progression the Royals think they’ll have). Quite a lot has to go right for that to be the case, and luck hasn’t been on the Royals side. It’s seemed like they’ve been more conservative in the past in challenging their pitchers, so if this is a shift in philosophy on the developmental side, it’ll be interesting to see how other pitchers farther down are handled.

Picollo pointed out on the Kansas City Baseball Vault two weeks ago that the organization tries to base those decisions on the individual pitcher, so perhaps that speaks to how much more advanced they feel Zimmer and Ventura are relative to Montgomery et al in 2010. Entering that season, Duffy was promoted to Double A (after a spring hiatus) in late July at the age of 21. Dwyer was 22 when he made it to Double A in July 2010. Montgomery opened the year as a 21-year-old in Wilmington before jumping up after four starts. Lamb was just barely 20 years old  when he made it to Springdale. Maybe it’s just by a few months, but the second wave hitting Double A could be a few months ahead of the first if they all start the year in Northwest Arkansas rather than lower levels. Also, Lamb and Ventura have to be penciled in to Omaha’s late-season rotation.

Now they just have to perform better than the first wave had (Texas League Championship notwithstanding).

Photo credits for photo on homepage: Kyle Zimmer – US Presswire File Photo; Yordano Ventura – Jake Roth – USA Today Sports; Jason Adam – Jen Nevius – Kings of Kauffman/Aerys Sports.

Kyle Zimmer – with Myers gone, he’s the top dog. Mandatory Credit: US Presswire File Photo

Baseball America has released its Top 100 Prospects, and of course the first name that draws interest from Royals fans is probably former prospect Wil Myers, now a member of the Tampa Rays system after being shipped out as part of the package that brought over James Shields and Wade Davis (and Elliot Johnson).

But we are all ready to move past Myers, aren’t we? (He ranks fourth on the list, if you’re curious). So let’s take a look at what other Royals prospects made the list.

First up is Kyle Zimmer, who sits at 24 on the list. Zimmer is, of course, the best pitcher in the system now (potentially) after being drafted in the first round by KC last year. Zimmer, 21, is a righty who currently ranks out pretty well on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball sits at 70, curve at 65, and his changeup at 55. He also ranks pretty well with his control, currently a 65, and his command is a 55.

Zimmer pitched briefly in Rookie ball last year before a promotion to Low A. In all, he threw 39.2 innings and mowed batters down, with a 9.53 K/9. In addition to his 42 strikeouts, he only walked 8 batters. Though very brief, it wasn’t a bad debut. Most reports have him on the fast track to the big leagues, and Baseball America agrees, with an ETA of 2014.

Next up, at 35 on the list, is homegrown super-athlete Bubba Starling. Bubba is an outfielder, and is a pretty raw talent. He was drafted in 2011, but has seen limited action so far in professional baseball. Going again to the 20-80 scale, his athleticism is what shines through with a 70 rating on both power and speed. His defense and arm both rate out at 60, while his bat is a little lower at 50, which rates out as an average big leaguer.

As I mentioned, Bubba’s seen limited time as a player since being drafted, not playing at all in 2011. In 2012, he played for Burlington at the Rookie level and hit .275 in 200 AB. He also managed 10 homers and 10 stolen bases and had an .856 OPS. The power and speed are definitely there…what remains to see is how good of an overall hitter he will become. But if he’s got game changing home run and stolen base potential…he doesn’t need to bat .300, or even .270.

Bubba Starling Takes a Swing For Team USA (mlb draft insider)

For what it’s worth – and this isn’t a fair comparison as they are different types of players – Myers bat rates as 60, power 70, speed 45, defense 55, and arm 60. Which outfielder will prove to be the better player? Only time will tell, but if you put any stock in these ratings…KC potentially kept the better outfield prospect when they traded for Shields and Davis.

Bubba’s still a couple of years away, with Baseball America looking for a 2015 debut. Personally, I think it might be 2016.

The last Royals prospect to make the cut, ranked at 85, is Yordano Ventura, a pretty familiar name around KC. Ventura, like Zimmer, is also a righty and is just 21. Unlike Zimmer (6’3, 215), Ventura stands in at 5’11 and is only 180 pounds. Some scouts think his smaller size makes him a better bullpen candidate, but the Royals seem determined to give him every chance to start – and they should, given his electric stuff.

Ventura’s fastball rates a 75 on the scouting scale, which is definitely elite. His curve is a 60, which is a above average, and his change sits right at 50. Not a bad arsenal, but for that fastball to truly be effective, his secondary stuff has to be good, and that change could definitely improve just a bit. His control and command are about average as well, rating out at 55 and 50, respectively.

As for his track record, Ventura has been pitching in pro ball since 2009 and worked his way up to AA in 2012, also pitching for the international team in Kansas City in the Futures Game. He had his roughest time in AA, where he posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but managed 25 strikeouts in his 29.1 AA innings. On the downside, he also walked 13. Not an impressive K/BB ratio, but for his career, spanning 280.2 minor league innings, he has a BB/9 rate of 2.85 and a K/9 of 9.62 – pretty impressive stuff.

Yordano Ventura pitching in the 2012 Futures Game. Mandatory Credit: Bob Ellis

With Ventura the sky is the limit, but he’s going to have to work on his control and command while refining at least one of those secondary pitches a bit more. But with two above average pitches, including what could be one of the better fastballs in the big leagues; he’s still an exciting prospect to keep an eye on. BA has his ETA as 2014, which could be an exciting year for young starting pitching in KC with both Ventura and Zimmer expected to be knocking on the door.

None of these guys are top five like our former standout Myers, but they could be by the end of this year. Yeah, we gave up a potentially great one in Myers for immediate big league improvement…but the cupboard isn’t exactly bare in KC.

No surprises as the same trio of Royals made the list – Yordano Ventura came in just outside the top 50 prospects (who were announced on the MLB Network) at #59, Kyle Zimmer was ranked #34 and Bubba Starling was ranked #26. I covered my thoughts and perceptions of these three on Monday, so let’s solicit some other opinions of the three prospects.

On Yordano Ventura

JJ Cooper of Baseball America on 12/2/12 episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault: “It’s fair to say that he’s going to get plenty of chances to be a starter because the reality is they need him as a starter more than they need him as a reliever. So he’s another guy by the end of the year or especially by 2014 I’d expect to see in Kansas City.”

Cooper also compared Ventura to Kelvin Herrera. Both have similar big fastballs and while Herrera may have slightly better secondary stuff, Ventura has a better record of staying healthy.

Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus on 12/7/12 episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault: “Kansas City certainly feels like he’s a starter. That’s a promising thing. They know the value he has as a reliever. They know that they could put him in relief and he can just throw gas. That’s what he was known as before this year. I saw him in spring training and thought ‘Oh, here’s Ventura, here comes 100 and nothing else’ and then he’s throwing a hammer and a good change up and I’m like ‘Well this is different. This changes things. This kid’s about to blow up.’”

“There’s something about this kid, but I can’t put my finger on it. You don’t see it all the time. You’ll get a dominant reliever as a floor, but if he can start, he’s a lot bigger value.”

On Kyle Zimmer

Cooper said he expected to see Zimmer in Kansas City by September of 2013, but also noted that there are a lot of pitchers to mix in before that happens. Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino‘s returns will also complicate that ascent, in Cooper’s opinion.

Parks:  ”This is a guy, he’s probably going to move fast because he’s got a really advanced, hyper-intense arsenal, but he’s not going to be on the top of a rotation any time soon. It may be 2016 that he taps into his potential.”

JJ Picollo, Royals assistant GM, echoed the belief that Zimmer could be a fast riser in the Royals system in 2013.

On Bubba Starling

Cooper: In response to if Starling will hit enough to realize his potential, Cooper answered “We don’t know yet … If the hit tool comes along then, absolutely. If it doesn’t, then that’s going to limit him dramatically as far as his ceiling.”

Parks: On Starling in relation to other phenoms like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout who have debuted at a young age:  ”He’s not ready for that level of acceleration yet. He’s a tremendous athlete [but] he’s not a baseball player yet. He could be a four year guy in the minors.”

Picollo was impressed with Starling’s defensive instincts in center field in his first professional season.

For anyone scoring at home, Wil Myers ranked fourth overall on MLB.com’s list, while Jake Odorizzi was ranked the 45th best prospect in baseball.

Over at Seedlings to Stars, we’re going through the top 100 (really 115 – there are just so many good ones out there) prospects in baseball. Despite some graduation to the majors and the big trade in December, the Royals landed three big names on the list. Those three are:

#83 – Right-handed pitcher Kyle Zimmer

Zimmer doesn’t have much of a track record yet, but signed early enough to get some time in the Pioneer and Midwest League. He’s arguably the team’s top pitching prospect and there’s enough out there to suggest that if all goes well he could be on the fast track to the majors as early as 2013. As a pitcher out of college, that quick ascent isn’t unheard of, but it’s uncharacteristic for the Royals. He should start the year in High A Wilmington.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; World pitcher Yordano Ventura throws a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

#73 – Right-handed pitcher Yordano Ventura

No surprise that Ventura makes the list. Some see him as the top pitching prospect in the organization, but even if he isn’t, he’s close to the top of the list. The Royals seem to want him to get closer to the majors this year, as long as the performance warrants it. I suspect that if he has an ideal year, he’ll cruise through Double A and spend a couple months in Triple A until reaching the big leagues in September.

If things don’t go well, or they rush him, Ventura is still likely to get a lot of time in Triple A. With the way the Royals pitching staff is constructed, they aren’t in any position to push him if there’s any hint of struggle. If he contributes before 2014, it’ll be considered a bonus.

#25 - Outfielder Bubba Starling

There’s still plenty of time for Starling to reach his potential. The Royals knew he’d have a longer path than some coming out of high school and focusing full-time on baseball after being a multi-sport star out of Gardner-Edgerton High School in Kansas. Pro baseball is a big jump from Kansas 5A athletics, but the tools are enough to make scouts drool. If he realizes his potential, he could be among the game’s best players.

For now, though, it’s just unrealized potential and it’s significant to note that Starling is older than 2013 National League Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper. He seems like the kind of player who, when it clicks, it comes together quickly, but there’s no guarantee that Starling will ever develop. The Royals were pleased with his 2012 in short-season Burlington and he should be starting in Low A Lexington in 2013. Starling was also ranked among Jonathan Mayo’s top 10 outfield prospects.

After the 2011 prospect rankings anointed Kansas City as the supreme farm system in the land, Royals fans have been pretty spoiled and getting “only” three prospects in a top 100 feels lacking in impact. Consider also that Wil Myers will be a top five prospect and Jake Odorizzi was the 32nd prospect in these rankings, so the Royals system produced a good amount of talent. Two of the biggest names were simply traded away.

Others who could have gotten into the rankings would be shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, a fast riser among scouts, John Lamb, who should be ready to go after spending 2012 working back from Tommy John surgery, and possibly outfielder Jorge Bonifacio. Cheslor Cuthbert came in tenth in Mayo’s third baseman rankings and could have snuck into this list as well.

And I don’t really understand why. It’s not that people are down on Smith, but they’re not nearly as high on him as I believe they should be. With this post, I’m going to let you know why everyone should be excited about Smith. Fangraphs put Smith into the Royals top-10 prospect rankings, but he’s nowhere to be seen in the Baseball America top-10, and that’s with other pitchers like Sam Selman and Jason Adam in there.

Near the top of that list, which included Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, was Kyle Zimmer, and it makes no sense to me that Zimmer is rated so much higher than Smith. Set aside their makeup for now—Zimmer has the prototypical body for a top-notch pitcher while Smith is a bit small. Looking strictly at how they have performed as prospects, they seem to be very similar with Smith being a full year younger.

Both started professional baseball last season by doing a short stint in Rookie ball and then heading to Kane County. People were happy with Zimmer’s performance there. In nearly 30 IP at Kane County, he had a 2.43 ERA, 29 SO (8.80 K/9), and only 8 BB. That’s pretty good, especially for someone who hasn’t pitched much in his life. In fact, Smith may have more pitching experience than Zimmer, though not at the college level.

In comparison, Smith fared a little better than Zimmer at Kane County. He pitched 67.1 innings with 87 SO and 20 BB. Smith’s ERA was a touch higher at 2.94, but that’s probably due to a BABIP of .349. Think about that. Smith had a BABIP of .349 and still had an ERA under three, but that’s not unbelievable because he struck out 11.63 batters per nine innings. He faced exactly 300 hitters in both Rookie ball and low A and struck out 98 of them (that’s almost a third). Of course, Smith is a high school draft pick so he’s doing all of this at 19 years old. Zimmer is a young college signee, and was 20 last year.

For a comparison, Danny Duffy had a 11.24 K/9 rate and a 2.40 FIP at low A. Smith’s FIP was 2.13. So, as far as performance goes, there’s no reason to not love Smith.

Let’s return to that makeup. At 6’ 0” and 170 pounds, Smith is not a big guy, and this is the heart of why people don’t hype him more. Because statistical analysis and looking past appearance has become more a part of the game recently, we sometimes forget that it’s still engrained in us to look at things like a guy’s height and make assumptions about what that guy can be. Does his body structure make him more prone to injury? I’m not sure. But I know he was healthier than Zimmer in 2012. For now, can we not get behind him because he’s doing really well and wait for an injury to sour us on him?

And let’s not forget that there are pitchers who have been successful with shorter statures. Pedro Martinez was 5’ 11”. Roy Oswalt is 6’0”. In fact, Oswalt, I think, is a decent comp for where Smith could end up if everything comes together. Oswalt threw a little harder than Smith does right now, but it’s not unheard of for a pitcher to gain some velocity in his early 20s as his body continues to develop and his motion becomes more refined.

How’s his stuff? you may ask. That’s harder to determine. I’ve never seen him play, but the reports on him range from potentially wicked stuff to above average stuff. Most agree that his fastball will probably end up around the 91-93 range, touching 95 at times. Some claim that his curveball is just devastating, and in this clip of him pitching at the Underarmor game, it looks pretty good. Here’s a report from Royals Revival on him, which I was glad to see was very optimistic.*

*Note in the comment left, a person who knows Smith mentions what a good person he is. This seems in keeping with the different pieces I’ve read on him which mention a terrific work ethic and good character.

Looking at Smith, I can’t see any reason not to be optimistic about him. He’s going to be a 20-year-old pitcher at high A next year, and if the writing on him is any indication, he has a wonderful pitching mind. He faced top-notch competition in high school coming from Florida and blew that competition away. The only conclusion I can reach is that Smith is underrated because of his height, which may be a good thing for the Royals. They took him in the fourth round, and if he continues to develop and becomes an Oswalt or Tim Hudson, the Royals can take a bow for a wonderful find. They can say they looked past his height and saw the competitor in him instead—all that cliché crap.

Regardless, it’s time for people to start talking more about this kid. When Zimmer finds his way to the majors, it may be in the shadow of Smith.

Kyle Zimmer – the new number one. Mandatory Credit: US Presswire File Photo

I’m going to take one final look at “The Trade” with the Tampa Bay Rays, and any collateral damage on the Royals farm system. We all know – even casual fans – who Wil Myers is (and most probably know Jake Odorizzi as well). But did this trade really wreck our farm system? I maintain the move was a good one, and that the farm remains strong. Let’s take a look at some remaining top prospects.

According to Baseball America’s JJ Cooper, in an update of the top prospects published on November 19, 2012, Myers was the number one prospect, which is no surprise. Many fans were upset to see Odorizzi, number five on Cooper’s list, also included in the deal. So…two of our top five are gone. Let’s slide the other guys up the ladder and see where that leaves us. After the trade, our top guys according to BA are:

1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
2. Bubba Starling, OF
3. Yordano Ventura, RHP
4. Jorge Bonifacio, OF
5. Adalberto Mondesi, SS
6. Sam Selman, LHP
7. Orlando Calixte, SS
8. Jason Adam, RHP

That’s still a great group of players. Zimmer is also listed as having the best curveball and best control of any pitcher in the system, while Ventura has the top fastball. Starling is named the best athlete and is said to possess the best outfield arm. Sounds like three guys with a lot of upside to me. Are they knocking on the door like Myers and Odorizzi were? No…not yet. But Myers and Odorizzi were no more known quantities than any of the remaining eight players, we were just closer to finding out if they were legitimate big leaguers.

Cooper goes on to project a 2016 lineup and rotation based on the top prospects and current major league roster. It included Myers in right field. But to all those so upset by Odorizzi’s inclusion in this deal: he was projected as the fifth starter. Not exactly an endorsement for being a guy with game changing ability. Zimmer is projected as the ace, with Ventura the fourth starter…both projected ahead of Odorizzi, and both are still in the Royals pipeline.

Shifting gears to FanGraphs, Marc Hulet ranked the KC prospects, and had Myers and Odorizzi in the top five as well (first and fourth, respectively). FanGraphs offered a top 15, rather than top 10. Listing their top 10 minus the two missing prospects looks like this:

1. Zimmer
2. Ventura
3. Starling
4. Mondesi
5. Bonifacio
6. Selman
7. Adam
8. Kyle Smith, RHP
9. Calixte
10. John Lamb, LHP

Yordano Ventura pitches in the 2012 Futures Game. Mandatory Credit: Bob Ellis

Baseball America’s guys are all here again, with Kyle Smith and John Lamb joining the party. FanGraphs claims Odorizzi’s ceiling was that of a number three or four starter…which is in line with Cooper’s “conservative” projection of fifth starter. Lamb, by the way, who is recovering from surgery, was projected to be a number two or three starter by many prior to injury. He could be one to keep an eye on as he makes his way back.

Oh…and you may have noticed…the other two prospects KC included in this trade – nowhere to be seen here (they weren’t in FanGraphs top 15 list at all).

What all of this boils down to, though, is guesswork. I’m a believer in statistical trends and projections. But I’ve also seen many top prospects fail – or at least not become the superstar player they were projected to be. Maybe Zimmer is the next Zack Greinke (or James Shields). Maybe Starling or Bonifacio are just good as Wil Myers (who knows…maybe one of them is better). What we do know? KC traded a couple of questions for a couple of answers.

The point is…we have seen Dayton Moore make strides towards putting a competitive big league roster together this offseason, and when is the last time we could honestly say that? You have to admit – a complete overhaul of the pitching rotation is pretty unheard of. Is it good enough to make a run at one of those wild card spots? Maybe…maybe not. But at least we’re discussing it for once. And, by the way, the farm doesn’t look so bad after all.

NWA Naturals GM Eric Edelstein thinks 2012 1st Rd Royals pick RHP Kyle Zimmer will be in Springdale at some point in 2013, possibly April

— Paul Nielsen (@NWAPaul) October 18, 2012

Kyle Zimmer.

You’ll recall that Kyle Zimmer was the fifth overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. The new CBA moved the signing deadline up and Zimmer signed quickly anyway, just three days after the Royals selected him. After recovering from a hamstring injury, Zimmer made it into nine games and threw 39.2 innings, putting up a 42/8 K/BB ratio and 2.04 ERA in the Arizona Rookie League and at Kane County in Low A.

The plan all along was to get Zimmer ready for High A Wilmington to start 2013 but this is the first time I’ve heard of any hint of a plan or speculation about how fast he could rise to other levels, but I like the thought.

A plan like this would be aggressive for the Royals. Perhaps it’s a chicken-or-the-egg situation, but they’ve been patient in pushing prospects up the ladder, though some that they could have pushed up quickly have hit a wall at some level. Mike Montgomery stumbled in 2011 in Omaha. Chris Dwyer never really figured out Double A. Danny Duffy made his way to the big leagues in 2011, but it was after 1430 days in the organization after being drafted in 2007 out of high school. So the question comes to mind – are the Royals slow about bringing up their players (and, maybe, stunting their growth), or are the players coming up so slowly because they just aren’t that good?

In deciding on an answer to this question, I took a look at the drafts held under Dayton Moore’s era in Kansas City (including the 2006 draft which is officially not part of his tenure, but, c’mon) to see who had been drafted in the first five rounds who’s made it to the big leagues and how long after signing did it take them to reach the majors. The list (*=drafted out of college):

• Luke Hochevar – 400 days*
• Blake Wood – 1420 days
• Mike Moustakas – 1395 days
• Danny Duffy – 1430 days
• Eric Hosmer – 994 days
• Johnny Giavotella – 1151 days*
• Aaron Crow – 560 days*
• Louis Coleman – 651 days*

High school players start at lower levels and usually have a longer road to go, so it’s not surprising to see that they’ve spent more time in the minors, but it’s evident that the college pitchers in this group made it up faster. College players generally advance faster due to more advanced coaching, more experience, tougher competition and the age difference.

Also benefiting the college pitchers is the fact that they can be stashed in the bullpen to get some work as rookies, but not necessarily be called into action as a starter. Hochevar started out in the bullpen when he was first called up, making one start only out of four appearances. Crow and Coleman made quick jumps and are still in the bullpen. With that in mind, what could that mean for Zimmer’s path to the big leagues?

Wilmington has 26 games in April, so Zimmer could make four or five starts and, if Edelstein’s hunch is correct, could see Double A in May or late April. He can see a couple of months in Double A and one or two in Triple A (if he’s pitching well and healthy).

That’s aggressive, yes, but Zimmer turns 22 on September 13, the same age Duffy and Moustakas were for their debut and a year older than Hosmer. If he were called up in September, it would be 451 days after he signed his contract with the Royals. If he’s the pitcher the Royals think he can be, that’s not outrageous at all, and if they’re contending and could use his arm, he’d be the same age David Price was in 2008 when he debuted 13 months after being the first overall selection in the draft out of Vanderbilt. Trevor Bauer made his debut at the age of 21, less than a year after signing his contract. Dylan Bundy went from high school to the majors in just over a year.

Now Zimmer isn’t considered the super-prospect that Price, Bauer and Bundy are, but he’s still highly regarded. Price and Bundy were called up in the middle of playoff races, while Bauer’s debut was on June 28 while the Diamondbacks were 37-37.

Edelstein’s Zimmer speculation seems a bit fast on the surface, and for the Royals organization, maybe it is. But if Zimmer comes in and performs well in High A right away, it’s worth seeing what he can do at a tougher level, especially if there’s any hint that he can rise quickly through the system. My own hunch is that regardless of Zimmer’s production, he’ll go no farther than Triple A in 2013 and likely no higher than Double A.

After so many languishing pitching prospects who’ve either struggled on the mound or been hurt, maybe it’s time for some optimism, so here’s to hoping that Edelstein wasn’t optimistic about Zimmer’s 2013, but underselling it.

At the end of the year, first round pick Kyle Zimmer had surgery to clean out some bone chips in his elbow (though this was never as threatening as the ligament tears the others suffered).

Obviously none of that is good news.

The good news is that they’re all on their way back.

Soria has recently started throwing again and reports say that he looks good. The Royals have a decision to make on his contract, but the most reasonable idea is to buy out his remaining options for $750,000 rather than pay him $8 million in 2013 (when they don’t know how effective he might be).

Blake Wood is set to start throwing again tomorrow and seems to be ahead of schedule. While Wood isn’t as big of a name as others in the bullpen, he was a serviceable middle relief option in 2011. His presence on the 2012 Royals could have helped soak up a few more innings. He would have been a good option in the first half of the season when the Royals were routinely using five or six relievers to get through games.

April 22, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (23) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Duffy and Paulino are the two names that mean the most going into 2013. Both are expected to be a part of a contending Royals rotation (or at least be in the competition for it). Paulino is staying in Kansas City to work his way back. Bob Dutton reported he’s likely two months from starting a throwing program of any kind. He was off to a hot start last season and had he stayed healthy, would look like a great fit in the rotation right now.

While Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer languish in the minors, Duffy made it up in 2011, then broke camp in the rotation last year. He started out well, striking out more batters and looked like he was figuring out the level of competition, but after six starts, his elbow gave out. As a lefty, he added that element to the rotation, as the other options as southpaw starters turned out to be Will Smith, Bruce Chen, Ryan Verdugo (once) and Everett Teaford. None of those options are particularly overpowering, and a staff would do well to have a strikeout guy every fifth day, especially throwing from the left side.

Both Duffy and Paulino hope to get back around July. Rehab time on Tommy John surgery is usually about 10-14 months, so that may be the optimistic timetable.

Lamb and Zimmer are the two closest to 100%. Lamb’s surgery was long enough ago that it’s just a matter of getting his game conditioning back and used to the pace of the game again. Lamb will start back in Double A after 13 innings at the Rookie level late in 2012. He struck out 14 batters and walked four, though he wasn’t totally sharp. After an offseason of work and more time, his strength and command will return.

Zimmer’s injury was something reported as well-known at the time and bone chips weren’t a short-term worry. It’s still a little scary when your first round pick goes under the knife, especially when it’s a pitcher and the area of concern is the elbow. But everything went fine and he’s in line to start next season at High A Wilmington. In nine starts as a pro, Zimmer worked in 39.2 innings with an ERA of 2.04. He had better than a 5/1 K/BB ratio over that span and most reports pointed to a lot of life on his fastball. Zimmer could be a fast riser in the Royals system, possibly in Double A by the end of next season if he pitches well. Like Lamb, he’s expected to be 100% once spring training rolls around.

These are all good signs. The Royals look to add pitching this offseason, but there’s always a need for good arms on a pitching staff. The Royals could see four pitchers come back and contribute next year at the big league level, which would be a big lift and added depth for the whole organization.

April 10, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) loses his bat during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Late August is the hardest time to be a Royals fan. They’re out of any type of race other than a race for top draft picks in 2013.

They’re not calling up any young prospects of the future for at least a few days and maybe not even then. They’re stuck in this state of mediocre baseball and near hopelessness.

By now, we pretty clearly have a sense of who the 2012 Royals are: an extremely inconsistent team with players still learning what it takes to be successful at the major league level. Eric Hosmer has disappointed to a level I’ve never seen before when we consider expectations (granted I’m only 26). Mike Moustakas has been decent but not jaw dropping. He continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, and watching him swing and miss at the same pitches over and over again makes me want to throw objects at a television … my television to be specific.

I point to Hosmer and Moustakas only because they are the poster children for this new wave of talent meant to push the Royals back to prominence. But of course they are not the sole holders of blame. Starting pitching has been terrible (as most thought it would be). Jeff Francoeur has been atrocious (as many thought he probably would be). And some of the moves made by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore have been awful (as anyone with brain cells knew they would be).

Now, we’re stuck in this purgatory, a holding pattern, and it feels like eating plain bread. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Wil Myers. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Jake Odorizzi. Right now, all we have are dreams of the future, and those dreams are opaque at best.

That’s why I hate late August for the Royals. When we get to September, we can at least sink into the warm delusion of our strong Septembers. Last season the Royals went 15-10 with what many considered to be a glimpse into their lineup of the future. Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Hosmer, and Moustakas were all in the majors, and the Royals started winning. Fans could then delude themselves into thinking that this was proof of future success. I want that delusion to get here already. Much like in the movie Inception, I need the dream world because it’s much better than the real world (or something like that … I don’t know that movie was super confusing).

The only pieces of the puzzle left are Myers, Odorizzi, and a pitcher to be named. Maybe that pitcher will be John Lamb or Yordano Ventura or Kyle Smith or Kyle Zimmer. Who knows? Maybe it will be a free agent (I doubt it). But for now, we’re left only to stew in this place of wonderlessness.

You see, wonder is what drives the passion of Royals fans. We wonder what the future will bring (I’m using “wonder” as a double entendre). We look at our future with a sense of wonder. We look at players like Myers and Odorizzi with a sense of wonder. It’s what keeps us going as fans. If we can’t wonder, morale drops like Francoeur’s batting average after facing a righty for one game.

The wonder is off both Hosmer and Moustakas. I’m not saying they won’t be great players. They might be, and if they do become great players it will be wonderful. But it won’t be the same thing we feel when everything is possibility, as it is with Myers and Odorizzi, as it is with next season.

I need September to get here. I need to see the future Royals so I can replace the sense of stuckness I feel now with a sense of wonder.

I can hear the collective groan as the Royals see another significant name lost due to injury. Earlier this season, the Royals have lost Joakim Soria, Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino and Blake Wood all succumb to Tommy John surgery. Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain missed the first half of the season and Chris Getz has been on the disabled list three times.

Now Zimmer has this surgery.

Even though it’s the elbow, it’s not Tommy John. There are no tears. In fact, the problem was something the Royals reportedly knew of during their draft preparation (and which may have helped the Royals negotiate a smaller draft signing bonus) but that didn’t present a threat to him this year and he was deemed able to pitch. Zimmer will be out for 6-8 weeks and shouldn’t see any offseason plans derailed as a result.

Zimmer was pitching in Low A Kane County after a few starts in Arizona to start his pro career. He compiled 39.2 innings and 42 strikeouts with a 2.04 ERA. He’d thrown 88.1 innings for the University of San Francisco before the draft, so the timing of the surgery comes after he’s reached 128 innings fits with a good time to control his innings.

The plan for next year is to have him start in High A Wilmington next season as a 21-year-old.

The Nationals were 69-93 in 2010. They were 80-81 last year. Today, they have the best record in the big leagues and, not coincidentally, their starting pitching has given up the least amount of runs in the league. Similarly, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh are all in the top ten among starting rotations in runs allowed per game and are in the playoff hunt.

The Royals scored more runs in 2000 than any other Royals team in franchise history. Their 879 runs scored eclipsed the old record of 856 runs set in – wouldn’t you know it?  - 1999. In those two seasons, they scored 1735 runs. They won 141 games and lost 192. The offense was around the top third in all of baseball, but the pitching staffs gave up the second most runs in the majors in 1999 and the third most in 2000. A strong offense can’t erase awful pitching.

Now, the Royals find themselves with a lineup that feels like it should be able to produce runs over the long-term (or at least, that’s what the scouts say), but the key to success will be pitching, specifically starting pitching.

That’s as true today as it was on the last day of the season in 2011 as it was on the first day that pitchers and catchers reported. The Royals entered 2012 needing pitching and in the middle of August, they still need starting pitching. Injuries have hurt. If all goes well with recovery, they should see Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino return next July or so, but their contributions may only have an impact if he Royals can manage to piece together some winning months prior to the duo’s return.

The team’s relative inactivity in the offseason to add significant depth to a potential rotation gives me pause about hoping for significant upgrades in the rotation, although some may be on the Royals radar this winter. The Royals ideal situation is to develop pitching via the farm system as the Rays have done with James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson et al; like the Nationals have done with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler. Hopefully, the Royals go after some of the arms available in free agency or through trade because, in the meantime, while there are a number of strong performances in the minor leagues by pitchers who compose what could be the next wave of talent, most aren’t ready to make the jump yet.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Jake Odorizzi has performed well since his promotion to Omaha, allaying concerns that he might struggle early in a tougher league. Last year, he’d racked up 108 strikeouts in 78.1 innings for Wilmington, but became homer-prone in the Texas League and ended his 12 start stint in Northwest Arkansas with a 4.72 ERA. He started his 2012 season back in Double A, put in seven good starts and earned a promotion.

Since then, he’s been putting up good numbers in Omaha, capped off by an outing on Tuesday where he went 6.2 innings before allowing a hit. In 89.1 innings in Triple A, he’s got a 2.92 ERA (though his walk rate is up and he’s giving up more hits, so there could be some good fortune in that ERA). He’s a flyball pitcher, so it will likely make him home run prone once he gets to the big leagues, but he can miss enough bats and should have pretty good control to allow him to limit damage. He projects as a number three starter with some upside and should get to Kansas City in September for a couple appearances.

Another prospect to dream on is John Lamb, who has finally made it back to the mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June and in the process of maintaining his conditioning, aggravated a tendon in his ankle and had to hold off on game action.

On Tuesday, he started for the Arizona Royals in Surprise, throwing a scoreless inning and striking out two. A batter reached on an error, but Lamb gave up no hits or walks.

The Royals will probably be very patient with him for the rest of this season, just getting him worked back into game speed. I think we’d all like to see him make a start at each level until he got back to Double A, but I think he’ll work within the rookie levels, then into instructional leagues. J.J. Picollo said on a recent Royals TV broadcast that they’re looking for Lamb to start in Double A next year and be on the fast track. Lamb’s got a good shot to make that happen – he’s been touted for his temperament before even being drafted, and has come back from significant injury before. He might see Kansas City late in 2013, possibly on a similar path as Odorizzi has been on this year of a few starts for the Naturals, a long stint in Omaha and then Kansas City in late August or as a September callup.

Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura is another guy to keep an eye on. He’s possibly got the most upside of any starter in the system, but those types usually have some risk. In his case, the Royals are probably going to have to resist the urge to turn him into a reliever if he encounters any bumps in the road. He’s small (listed at 5’11″ 140 pounds, though he looks like he’s filled out since) and the perception is that smaller pitchers are fragile or can’t hold up to the rigors of 200 inning seasons.

That being the case, he has the potential to be a high strikeout pitcher if he starts, has shown decent control, and has the type of stuff that misses bats. He can hurl a fastball into the triple digits, his curveball is developing into a solid secondary pitch and his changeup could be more than adequate. He’s currently on the disabled list in Double A with carpal tunnel symptoms in his wrist, but should finish the year there, start back there next year and hit Omaha in the summer months.

Of course, Kyle Zimmer should be in this discussion. The Royals first rounder in 2012 is only 20 years old coming out of college and has already started to shine in Low A Kane County’s rotation. He’s made eight pro starts, building up 33.2 innings, striking out 39 batters and walking just seven. He’s also been getting a decent amount of grounders in his short pro career. Strikeouts plus low walk totals plus groundball tendencies are great components for a future star to have. He’s had one rough start of those eight, but all of his others have been dominant. He’ll start next year at High A Wilmington and might be up in mid-2014 if he keeps rolling.

One pitcher who needs a new challenge is Sam Selman. The lefty from Vanderbilt has been destroying the Pioneer League and will hopefully get a shot at a higher level to see how his dominance continues. He’s striking out 13.9 batters per nine innings at Idaho Falls.

Kyle Smith struck out 11 batters in five innings in his first pro start for Idaho Falls and was moved to Kane Country afterwards. He’s continued to perform well there, making nine starts and striking out 58 batters in 45.2 innings. He has nearly a 5/1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He’ll turn 20 next month and isn’t the big, tall pitcher the Royals usually go for as a starter, but he deserves a look as he moves up the minor league ladder. His best start came two weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings, gave up just three hits and struck out 12 while walking none against Cedar Rapids. More of that, please.

Jason Adam

Another good arm in the system is Jason Adam. He started the season off well for Wilmington, hit some rough patches in May and June, but has righted the ship and is pitching well. His 5-11 record is deceiving, as he’s hardly gotten any run support in most of his starts, best demonstrated by a May 19 start when he went six innings, struck out seven and gave up two runs, and the Blue Rocks got no-hit. He’s surpassed seven innings in six starts to lead Wilmington and has a good share of 6+ IP starts as well.

As a result, he’s probably thrown too many innings to get anything more than a courtesy start in Double A. At 141 innings this year, he might be shut down soon. He’s a strong candidate to start the year in Double A next year after demonstrating enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9) and prevent walks (2 BB/9) this year while also inducing his share of ground balls. He has good stuff, but it’s not dominating, though he’s been adding velocity recently. He’s hit the mid-90s with his fastball before, and if he can build up to that level, it gives him more upside. He’s another guy who scouts suggest could be a #3 starter down the line.

Unfortunately, for the moment, this is all just dreaming on these guys, because Odorizzi’s the closest to the big leagues and won’t have much time in the big leagues if at all by next spring and it may keep him from making the team out of Surprise. Lamb and Ventura will probably hit Triple A next year, but among Zimmer, Adam, Selman and Smith, there’s not a single pitch at the Double A level yet. That puts them some ways away from the big leagues.

Ideally, the Royals will be able to add these arms to the mix in the future. They won’t have much impact next season so if the Royals are to build up their rotation (which they need to do), they’ll have to go after those free agent targets. They may have to put one of these arms into a trade to get a better return on a starter with another team. The Royals want to bring their star starters up from the minor leagues and have a homegrown staff, and that’s commendable, but for the moment, unless Mike Montgomery (5.71 ERA in 41 innings after his demotion to Double A) or Chris Dwyer (6.21 ERA in Omaha) figure things out – sooner rather than later – the homegrown pipeline of pitching talent will remain a pipe dream.

The top of Omaha’s order, Falu and Anthony Seratelli, went a combined 5-for-12 with three RBIs. Derrick Robinson went 3-for-5 with three runs scored in the win.

NW Arkansas was battered in Midland, 13-3. The RockHounds led 11-0 after three innings. JC Sulbaran, who the KC Royals received from Cincinnati for Jonathan Broxton, continues to struggle with his new team (3IP, 9H, 11R, 5BB, 3K, 3HR). His ERA climbed to 10.64.

The bright spot for the Naturals was the relief outing from Ryan Dennick. He pitched four shutout innings and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out five.

The Naturals scored three runs, but only picked up five hits, two from Paulo Orlando.

Blue Rocks reliever Nick Rogers

Wilmington and Lynchburg were locked in a pitcher’s duel and carried it into extra innings. The Blue Rocks came out victorious in ten innings, 2-1. They walked off on a bases loaded walk (the third walk of the inning).

Andy Ferguson started for the Blue Rocks and allowed just one run (on a 6th inning solo homerun) over six innings. He allowed four hits and two walks while striking out nine. Nick Rogers, who seems to have rebounded from his struggles over the last two months, pitched three scoreless innings of relief (just one hit and one walk while striking out five).

Kane County beat Clinton, 5-3. 2012 first round draft pick Kyle Zimmer pitched another gem for the Cougars. He allowed two unearned runs on seven hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. Zimmer also picked a runner off second base.

On offense, Jack Lopez went 2-for-3 and Michael Antonio scored two runs and drove in two runs in the win.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a run scored and two strikeouts in Burlington’s late inning loss to Princeton. He also threw a runner out at the plate.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s first guest is “Diamond” Jim Gentile, a former All-Star and runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 1960 and an MVP candidate in the 1960s. He played in Kansas City with the Athletics in 1964 and 1965 after strong years with the Orioles.

We’ll also talk with Randy Herr, longtime Kansas City baseball fan and father of co-host Jeff Herr.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

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We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

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Nate Adcock picked up the victory after allowing three runs and scattering 11 hits over five innings. Four Omaha relievers closed out the victory.

Reliever Sam Runion

After the two teams combined for a total of five first inning runs, NW Arkansas held on for the 5-4 win over Midland. Brian Fletcher (2-for-4) gave the Naturals the lead in the first inning with a three-run homerun. He ended up driving in four of the Naturals’ five runs.

Ethan Hollingsworth picked up the win after throwing four innings of relief. He allowed one run on two hits while striking out two. Sam Runion picked up his second save by striking out the side on just 11 pitches (ten for strikes).

I guess Thursday night’s closed door meeting by manager Vance Wilson worked: Wilmington beat up on Salem, 9-1 in the first game of the three-game series. Salem led 1-0 after the first inning (without a hit), but Blue Rocks starter Jason Adam cruised from there. He allowed the unearned run on just two hits over seven innings. He walked one while striking out six. Both singles off Adam came in the 3rd inning. He finished his outing by retiring the final 13 batters he faced.

Matt Fields continued his tear on Carolina League pitching, as he went 5-for-5 with two more homeruns.

Kane County beat Clinton, 5-0 as they scored all their runs in the 7th and 8th innings. The KC Royals top pick in this June’s draft, Kyle Zimmer, was dominant over his 6.2 innings. He allowed just three hits while striking out ten. In his first win with the Cougars, Zimmer struck out at least one hitter in every inning but the third.

The Cougars 4-5 hitters, Dean Espy and Alex Llanos, delivered the bulk of the offense. The two combined to go 4-for-8 with three doubles, three runs scored, and three RBIs.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and three RBIs in Burlington’s 12-5 win. The Royals were down 5-2 heading into the 7th inning before scoring six and then another four in the 8th inning.

On offense, Irving Falu went 3-for-4 with a triple and two RBIs and Anthony Seratelli went 2-for-3.

Tony Abreu was promoted to the big leagues with the DFA of Yuniesky Betancourt.

A three-run top of the first inning pushed NW Arkansas over Arkansas, 5-1. Christian Colon went 3-for-4 in the win (maybe he’ll be promoted to Triple-A?). Mario Lisson drove in two runs with a two out single in the first.

Sugar Ray Marimon picked up the win, as he allowed one run on four hits and three walks over six innings. Sam Runion picked up his first Double-A save with three scoreless innings of relief. He allowed just one hit and a walk while striking out three.

Blue Rocks infielder Luis Piterson

Wilmington won their finale in Salem, 5-4 in ten innings. One of Luis Piterson‘s three hits drove in the go ahead run in the top of the 10th inning. Nick Rogers, who allowed an inherited run to score in the bottom of the 8th inning to tie the game, put away the Red Sox in the bottom of the 10th inning to pick up the win.

The middle of the Blue Rocks order, Lane Adams, Cheslor Cuthbert, and Geulin Beltre, went a combined 7-for-14 with two runs scored and three RBIs.

The comeback by the Red Sox late negated the solid start by Andy Ferguson, who allowed just one run on six hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He struck out seven.

Down 4-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th inning, Kane County came back with four runs to beat Cedar Rapids, 5-4. The winning run scored on a throwing error by the centerfielder.

In that 9th inning, Jack Lopez drove in three with a bases-clearing triple to tie the game with one out.

Kyle Zimmer made his third start for the Cougars. He allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk, a run scored, and an RBI in Burlington’s 6-3 win over Pulaski. All but two of the games in the Appalachian League were postponed on Sunday.

In the latest episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, our guest was former Kansas City Athletic and current Royals senior pitching advisor Bill Fischer.

Fischer talked about his time with the A’s and in pitching, as well as his time as a coach and advisor. We asked him about pitching today, a few Royals prospects (Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura in particular) and his approach to the game and pitching development.

The rest of the show was spent discussing the front office, decision-making, and what it’ll take to get this team back to being a winner. Since the hope of a great season is mostly gone, we focused on the things we’re going to pay attention to for the rest of the year and those players that we enjoy seeing play even during the rough games.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Yem Prades in 2011 with Wilmington

NW Arkansas ended their six-game losing streak by winning the finale against Tulsa, 3-2. The Naturals have won just four games in the month of July.

After watching the Drillers come back and tie the game in the top of the 8th inning, Yem Prades hit a solo homerun in the bottom of the inning with two outs to retake the lead. Juan Gutierrez retired the Drillers in order to pick up his second save.

Ryan Dennick‘s solid start was negated by the late inning comeback by Tulsa. He did not allow a run over 5.2 innings. He allowed three hits and two walks while striking out six.

Over the last two days, the Naturals have lost two players to retirement. Catcher Jason Kendall retired on Tuesday and first baseman John Whittleman retired on Wednesday. The Whittleman retirement allowed the Naturals to activate shortstop Christian Colon from the DL. He went 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored.

The big story in Wilmington was the start by Frederick’s Dylan Bundy (and his curveball). Too bad the game was suspended with two outs in the bottom of the 3rd inning due to the thunderstorms that swept through the Northeast. The Blue Rocks had just one baserunner against Bundy, a walk by Geulin Beltre.

Matt Ridings started opposite Bundy and allowed two hits and a walk over three shutout innings. He struck out four. The game will be completed in Frederick when Wilmington travels there later in the season (the Keys do not return to Wilmington).

With over 7,000 fans in attendance, Kane County lost at home to Wisconsin, 4-0. Two Cougars errors in the Timber Rattlers three-run top of the 8th inning cost them two runs.

The KC Royals top pick in this June’s draft, Kyle Zimmer, made his first start for the Cougars, but unfortunately picked up the loss. He allowed one run on five hits over four innings. He struck out five. Fellow 2012 draft pick Andrew Triggs followed Zimmer with three scoreless innings of relief. He allowed just one hit while striking out five.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a two-run double with two outs in the top of the 2nd inning, as Burlington beat Pulaski, 9-2. The Royals had two 4-run innings.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s guest is Bill Fischer, a former Kansas City Athletic (1961-1963) as a pitcher. He currently serves as the Royals special pitching assistant.

We’ll also go over what we’re watching for the rest of the season as the Royals spiral towards another 90-loss year.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Kyle Zimmer is one of many young Royals players with promise.

The Royals are a cushy 1000 games out of first in the AL Central. They’ve been injured, ineffective, and impotent. I feel safe in predicting that they will not make the playoffs for the 26th straight season (not counting 1994).

So, as is the custom with Royals fans, it’s time to once again turn our gaze to the future. With that in mind, I give you five Royals low minor leaguers I’m particularly excited about. Some of them you probably know a lot about. Some of them, maybe not so much. But lately I’ve taken solace tracking their progress to let hope spring eternal in my badly wounded heart. I hope you can do the same.

*These are in no particular order. I just write them as they enter my lunatic mind.

1. Kyle Zimmer - SP

He was recently promoted to Kane County after pitching 10 innings in the Arizona Rookie League. In those 10 innings he gave up one run, struck out 13 and walked zero. That’s right, he hasn’t walked anyone. This type of domination is to be expected from a guy who was facing good college talent very recently and performing well against that talent.

Zimmer excites me so much for a few reasons. He has a very smooth, easy delivery, which could point to his ability to throw upwards of 200 innings a season. He has incredible polish for a guy who’s only been pitching for roughly two seasons. He doesn’t turn 21 until September. And everyone talks about what a great athlete he is, which is a big plus for a number of reasons, including his ability to stay healthy, a problem the Royals have dealt with too much this year.

Zimmer should blow away the Midwest League. His first real challenge will come when he hits Wilmington, but many Royals have found success in Wilmington because it’s a pitcher friendly league. I hope the Royals aren’t too cautious with him and prevent him from making the leap from low A to high A this season if he shows he can handle it.

2. Kyle Smith - SP

Two Kyle’s on the list. This Kyle isn’t quite the flamethrower the other Kyle is, but he’s showing he can deal at low A Kane County. In 28.2 innings, he’s got 39 strikeouts; that’s 12.4 K/9. His ERA is 3.77, which is really good but doesn’t necessarily drop jaws. This could be due to a high number of hits given up (27), which may be due to a small sample size or the free swinging nature of low minors hitters.

Smith is a strikeout pitcher. He doesn’t get too many ground balls, and right now, he walks a few too many. But if he can refine his command a little, he could be an answer to a team that desperately needs starting pitching. It will be a while before he makes it to the big leagues; he’s only 19. But it’s worth watching the box scores to see how Smith progresses.

3. Jorge Bonifacio - OF

This guys is really, really good for as little publicity as he gets. He just turned 19 in June, and like the two Kyle’s currently plays with Kane County. How talented is that team? Though young for his level, he’s hitting .296/.354/.461 with 10 home runs. That’s pretty impressive.

The question I have about Bonifacio is whether or not he’ll develop a distinguishing tool. Is he going to develop more power? Is he going to start hitting at a .330 clip? I’m not sure because I can’t tell the future. If I could I’d be slapping Warren Buffett with a stack of hundred dollar bills while drinking gold flavored chocolate milk. But we know from guys like Rany Jazerilli that players who produce while being young for their level are worth paying attention to.

4. Alexis Rivera - OF/1B

People are already talking about Rivera as a steal in this year’s draft. The Royals picked him up in the 10th round out of Puerto Rico. He just turned 18 in June, and he’s hitting at a very impressive rate in 24 games in Arizona—.411/.454/.537. He’s a big left-handed hitter at 6’2” 225 and already has seven extra base hits and seven steals.

Like many young hitters, Rivera doesn’t walk much, just nine times so far. But plate discipline is often the last thing to develop, and he’s got plenty of time. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of identity he takes on as a player, and he could end up being a good value pick for the Royals.

5. Bubba Starling - OF

I’m going to put Bubba on this list because he’s still very exciting. He just hit his fourth homerun of his career. He’s hitting .288, but the patience and power people thought might take a lot of time to develop is showing nicely. He’s got a .400 OBP and a .513 SLG.

He’s only played in 20 games so there aren’t many numbers to get too excited about. But the word on the super highway is that he takes to coaching very quickly and that his swing has transformed in a very short period of time. So far, it seems he’s been the embodiment of the type of prospect his is, showing flashes of brilliance and a lot of inconsistency; he’s struck out 27 times in those 20 games.

As usual for the Royals, the future looks pretty good. I’m going to remain optimistic, as always, but only because the alternative is pretty dark. If you have the energy, keep track of these guys. They could be the next wave of players you’re cursing and throwing things at.

This year, with an earlier deadline, many draftees were signed quickly, and the Royals signed all but nine of their selections in the 2012 draft (and 28 of their top 30 picks), highlighted by Kyle Zimmer in the first round.

Most of this year’s draft picks have been assigned to short-season rookie leagues which are approaching the midway point in their seasons, so it seems like a good enough time to check in and see how the 2012 draft class has performed so far.

Some have done well – Zimmer just got promoted to Kane County, Colin Rodgers has been nearly unhittable and Kenny Diekroeger and Fred Ford are leading what is known as the “Burlington Bomb Squad”. Others are struggling in their first weeks as a pro player.

Kane County is the Royals Low A affiliate, all others are different Rookie League teams

The Royals lost on Sunday in a fashion that bad teams make a habit of losing: with the same formula they always do. A team came into Kauffman Stadium over the weekend losers of five of their last seven and last in the division standings, only to outplay, out hit, and out execute the home Royals.

Sam Deduno, who might be the only player in baseball whose Baseball Reference page does not come up on the first page of a Google search, anonymously took the mound Sunday with just 21 career innings to his name, and no career victories. He is also 29 years old.

A career journeyman minor leaguer if there ever was one, Deduno is the quintessential “all arm, no feel” pitcher as evident by 15 walks in his 21 career innings in the major leagues, and a 5.1 BB/9 in 780 minor league innings.

He is everything that a Royals offense can’t defeat.

Even though Deduno did walk 3 in his 6 1/3 innings of work, 8 of the 27 batters he faced saw three pitches or less, and 17 of his total pitch count was thrown to Alcides Escobar alone. The Royals offensive approach of “swing first and ask questions later” struck again, and to no shock to anyone, they could only muster a single run against a pitcher who, in eight seasons of professional baseball, had only pitched 15 major league innings.

Every player is entitled to have a bad game. Every team is entitled to have a bad game. It’s when those bad games pile up, when the bad at-bats string together, when the bad seasons stack on top of each without any discernment of where one ended and the next began, that questions need to be asked.

This is year six of the Dayton Moore regime and while all Royals fans can disagree about the how long it takes to get a major league team up and running and playing at least .500 baseball, there should be no argument to the contrary that it shouldn’t take this long. Bad personnel decisions aside – each probably defensible when looked at on their own, but not collectively – after seven drafts, six off seasons, and six trading deadlines, an organization should have at least lucked into a few difference-making players at this point to help push the team’s record to respectability.

But where are they? Joakim Soria was taken in the Rule V draft, and for as much credit as the Royals deserve for drafting him, they deserve just as much credit for not cashing in and selling-high on a borderline useless player for a losing team at the peak of his value. Melky Cabrera performed well but was then traded to San Francisco (a trade I wholeheartedly agreed with), only to perform even better.

There are other solid personnel moves, sure. Mark Teahen for Chris Getz at this point looks like a “win” simply because Getz is still playing baseball (and playing well) and Teahen is not. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Zack Greinke all signed extensions at one point because they wanted to stay with the organization, but those signings felt a little more like effects of circumstance because they were already in uniform.

The Royals are 40-54 and mere percentage points are all that keep them out of last place in one of the worst divisions in baseball. For all negative comments directed at blog posts such as this one, and those on other Royals blog sites, for the piling on the Royals organization for all their wrong turns and missteps, shouldn’t there at some point be an equal amount of negativity directed at the organization that gives us the mountains of material? Shouldn’t there be some responsibility and accountability taken from the organization that, in year six, has yet to play within at least ten games of average?

No. The fans that are upset and desire success for a change are called condescending names like “critical spirit”.

The line of success has been drawn, erased, and drawn again for what must be the third time now. Continually reestablishing the goal line is either the best job security ploy in the history of success, or the greatest sign of futility in the history of business. Either way, it isn’t working.

It shouldn’t be about blame. The time for blame has passed. At this point it is about getting it right. Unfortunately for those currently running the Royals they’ve been saddled with the disappointment and disgust of a franchise that spent two decades in irrelevance before they took their positions. They’re both blessed and burdened for having one of the most engaged fan bases in baseball, so the amount of scrutiny they’re under can border on the ridiculous. But that’s not an excuse.

This, is year six, and while other perennially losing organizations have built and lost, and built again in the same time frame that it’s taken the Royals to not quite build, fans are being told that it’s still going to take just a few more years until the results will actually be tangible. Oof.

This is year six. It is time for results.

The Good

Well, I guess we need to start looking towards the future again, huh?

I don’t often get caught up in the hoopla over draft picks. Perhaps I’m a cynic (don’t roll your eyes) but I’d like to see a young player have at least a year of success before I start to concern myself with whether or not he’s going to be an impact big leaguer.

But when Kyle Zimmer was drafted I was incredibly happy (which for me is saying something) and downright giddy to see how he would translate into pro ball.

Attempts to actually sit down and write something substantial about what it is I like about him have proved fruitless, but Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball summed up all kinds of good stuff at The Hardball Times. In short: oh my.

Arm speed isn’t simply the natural gift that baseball people want you to believe (you can improve and change arm action, significantly), but Zimmer has it in abundance. And the ease with which he creates torque with his trunk by getting down the mound into his kick is beyond impressive.

Zimmer fits the profile: hard thrower and a good athlete with projectable movement skills and body sequencing. He’s everything that could make my pitching heart swoon.

The Bad

For the month of July the Royals are 5-13. Yeah, that’s bad.

Echoing the sentiments from above: teams are allowed to have bad stretches and even bad months. I’m sure there’s a stat out there that gives the number of losing months playoff teams have had in any given year over the past decade, and surely there’s going to be a few on that list. But it’s when the losing months continue to happen without a change in the roster that’s the most concerning. Specifically: right field.

Jeff Francoeur is last in all of baseball among outfielders in wOBA, OBP, RC+, and fWAR.

Read that sentence again.

By almost every objective measure Jeff Francoeur is playing like the worst outfielder in baseball this year. The worst. Meanwhile, Wil Myers slugs his way from ballpark to ballpark in the minor leagues, and the big-league Royals sit 14 games under .500.

This isn’t about leadership anymore with Francoeur, it’s about production. It was a bad mistake to lock up a historically average-at-best player before the market established. It’s an even worse mistake to continue play a player every day that is having such a negative effect on the rest of the team, while a clear replacement is available at no cost.

The idea that there is nowhere to play Myers in Kansas City right now is preposterous. There is a place for him to play, and it’s a pretty obvious one.

The Upcoming

Each of the next four series the Royals play will be against teams that are better than them. Of course, that isn’t saying much when you’re talking about one of the worst records in baseball, but a West Coast road trip scorching hot Anaheim and Seattle, followed by a home stand against Cleveland and Texas, would only seem to make things worse in the win-loss column for Kansas City.

And things can always get worse.

Some key names:

2011 first round pick Bubba Starling will be in Burlington, North Carolina to start his professional career. He’s been in Arizona working with the Royals as he refines his skills. Starling has a ton of upside, but he’s raw. Bryce Harper is younger and already excelling in the big leagues, but Starling had his attention diverted between football, basketball and baseball. He’s the best athlete in the entire Royals organization, but there’s some risk that baseball acumen never matches his tools. If it does, though, his potential is limitless.

This year’s first round pick, Kyle Zimmer, will stay in Arizona to start out as he nurses hamstring and groin injuries from the end of his college season. Once he’s recovered there, he’ll likely end up in Idaho Falls but could end up in Kane County. He might be able to get five or six starts in this year.

Two key international signees will start in Idaho Falls, as outfielder Elier Hernandez and shortstop Adalberto Mondesi (the Torpedo Boat). Both were among the top Dominican players available last July. They have a ways to go, as Hernandez, the elder, doesn’t even turn 17 until November.

2011 draft picks Bryan Brickhouse, Kyle Smith (both pitchers) and shortstop Jack Lopez are in Idaho as well, and while there hasn’t been an official announcement that I’ve seen that he’s signed, 2012 second round pick left-handed pitcher Sam Selman out of Vanderbilt is listed on the Chukars roster.

Last year’s second rounder, catcher Cameron Gallagher, will join Bubba Starling in Burlington. They’ll be joined by other names like pitcher Jake Junis, shortstop Humberto Arteaga and 2012 draftees Colin Rodgers (a left-handed pitcher from the third round) and outfielder Fred Ford (seventh round). The ninth round pick, Daniel Stumpf (another lefty) will be in Burlington as well. Their fourth round pick, Ken Diekroeger, signed earlier today and could possibly go to Idaho Falls.

Other notables:

The Royals have nine of their top ten picks from 2012 signed. The official announcement is still pending on Selman but it’s safe to assume he’s in the fold. Catcher Chad Johnson is still listed as being in Arizona, and pitcher Zach Lovvorn and outfielder Alexis Rivera are there too. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado signed but, seeing as how he’s the youngest player selected in the draft, he’ll probably be in Arizona receiving further instruction.

The full roster assignments as of Thursday are linked below:

• Arizona Royals
• Burlington Royals
• Idaho Falls Chukars

For those near Pulaski, Virginia or traveling that way, Bubba Starling should be in the lineup on June 19th for the Burlington Royals first game at 7:05 p.m. EST on the road against the Pulaski Mariners. He’ll debut in Burlington against Elizabethton on the 22nd.

Buddy Biancalana had a career OPS of .553 with the Royals. That’s pretty bad, but he’s remembered by Royals fans for a stretch in late 1985 when he was extraordinarily productive, earning him a bit of the national spotlight as the Royals went on to their only World Series victory.

He talked about that season and his experience “in the zone” and how he’s channeling that into a new generation of athletes through instruction and training programs.

We also talked about Wil Myers, Kyle Zimmer and the Royals trouble with certain innings this season.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

After being selected with the fifth overall pick in the MLB draft on Monday, Zimmer and the Royals agreed on a signing bonus that gets him into the fold right away. The reported amount of the bonus is $3 million, half a million less than MLB’s slot figure for the pick.

Everything about this signing and bonus is beneficial to the Royals. They don’t have to worry about signing their first rounder at the deadline like last year when Bubba Starling’s bonus was announced just before midnight on the last night. They saved money on the bonus but still got one of the top three college arms in the draft (which allows them to use their draft pool for the first ten picks more flexibly with other signees). Zimmer is in the organization now so he can jump to Arizona to recuperate from hamstring and groin tightness that followed him after his season ended at San Francisco and then he can still get in some time in a minor league rotation.

After that, it’s up to Zimmer and his performance.

College pitchers can fly through a minor league system. Unlike high school pitchers who may need additional instruction, teams won’t always hold college pitchers in extended spring training, instead sending them off to short season leagues or lower levels. With early round picks, they often go right into game action or close to it.

That’s the path Zimmer will likely be on. Greg Schaum suggested that once Zimmer gets assigned to a team, he’ll be able to log 30 to 40 more innings in 2012. The Royals reportedly haven’t come up with a location for him yet, but Bob Dutton suggests it may be Idaho Falls or Kane County.

The signing also benefits the Royals because of the alternative. When Mark Appel slipped, there may have been a chance the Royals would have selected him. The issue with that would have been his bonus demands. The Royals were allotted a $6.2 million pool for their first ten picks. Appel reportedly turned down $6 million from Houston to be the first overall pick. To sign him would have likely taken $7 million, a number that would have left the Royals mostly unable to sign any other picks in their top ten. Their best move in that case could have been to have let Appel walk and taken a compensatory pick next year, but for a team like the Royals who may be a few pitchers away from true contention in 2013 and 2014, getting a player in line and ready to contribute was important.

Essentially, they chose Zimmer, most of their top ten picks, no penalties or lost draft picks (which could have resulted from going over the bonus pool by 15%) over Appel alone, and that decision is a prudent one. Appel may indeed turn out to be better than Zimmer when their careers are over (though not all scouts agree that there’s that big of a gap between the two), but Zimmer’s pretty darn good and allows for more talent to be brought in overall. ]

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Our guest will be Buddy Biancalana, part of the 1985 World Series team and a key part of their championship run.

We’ll also dig into the Royals draft from earlier in the week and dissect their “major announcement” from earlier in the day.

Just like last week, we plan to have a trivia question and a giveaway, so be sure to listen in. Last week, three listeners won free ticket packages to go see the Kansas City T-Bones. You like winning things, right? That trivia question can happen any time, so you have to listen to be ready.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

At the top of the list is Kyle Zimmer, their first round pick out of San Francisco. The 20-year-old is said to be fairly close to coming to a deal with the Royals on a signing bonus and could be assigned to a minor league affiliate soon, according to Bob Dutton.

The Royals have already signed a few picks from day two: Colin Rodgers, Fred Ford, Alfredo Escalana-Maldonado, Parker Morin and Dylan Sons. Three of those came out of the Royals top ten picks so their bonus amounts will count towards the draft pool allotment established by Major League Baseball.

Here’s the breakdown of the Royals 40 selections:

• Left-handed pitchers: 10
• Right-handed pitchers: 14
• Catchers: 3
• First basemen: 2
• Second basemen: 1
• Shortstops: 1 (though Kenny Diekroeger is likely to move to second base rather than stay at shortstop)
• Third basemen: 0
• Outfielders: 9
• High school players: 17
• College/Junior College: 23
• College seniors: 2

I specify the college seniors because a trend started to develop yesterday where many teams were taking college seniors (who don’t have as much leverage in bonus negotiations) earlier than some prospects who were projected to go higher as a way to manipulate some of the bonuses handed out. The Royals didn’t get on that train, it seems, though they did lean college-heavy overall.

One particular selection is interesting in what it symbolizes. Austin Fairchild was the 16th round pick by the Royals. He’s a left-hander out of St. Thomas High School in Texas and stands six feet tall and weighs about 170 pounds. What’s so special about that? Fairchild is a long-toss pitcher, meaning a large part of his training in the offseason and between starts involves playing catch at distances up to 300 feet. Many training programs established by teams limit that distance to 120 feet or so. In the past, the Royals have been resistant to these types of programs despite drafting adherents like Mike Montgomery and John Lamb.

With the hiring of Rick Knapp as their minor league pitching coordinator and the drafting of Fairchild, it seems that the Royals are opening up to the idea of utilizing long-toss as part of their development or at the very least, embracing the idea that one size doesn’t fit all when it comes to pitching development. (You can hear more about such long-toss programs in our interview with Alan Jaeger of Jaeger Sports on the Royalman Report.)

Now that the draft is over, it’s time to sign the picks. The Royals have five out of the way now, and with an earlier deadline than in years past, they’re working quickly on locking up Zimmer and the rest. The sooner they get a signature, the sooner these players can be assigned to minor league teams or start work in Surprise at the Royals training facility.

All picks from the 2012 draft are tracked on MLB.com and can be filtered by team.

The Royals also picked Hayden Edwards, a 6’7″ right-handed pitcher out of Blue Valley High School in Stillwell, Kansas (31st round) and Ashton Goudeau a 6’6″ righty from Maple Woods Community College (27th round).

Of their 14 picks on Tuesday, eight come out of high school and half of their picks were pitchers.

Their full draft through 15 rounds:

1. Kyle Zimmer – RHP – San Francisco
2. Sam Selman – LHP – Vanderbilt
3. Colin Rodgers – LHP – High school (Louisiana)
4. Kenny Diekroeger – SS – Stanford
5. Chad Johnson – C – High school (Illinois)
6. Zachary Lovvorn – RHP – High school (Alabama)
7. Fred Ford – OF – Jefferson College (Missouri)
8. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado – OF – High school (Florida)
9. Daniel Stumpf – LHP – San Jacinto College (Texas)
10. Alexis Rivera – OF – High school (Florida)
11. Zebulon Sneed – RHP – Northwest Nazarene College (Idaho)
12. Jackson Willeford – 2B – High school (California)
13. Hunter Haynes – LHP – High school (Missouri)
14. “Parker” Mike Morin – C – Utah
15. Dylan Sons – LHP – High school (Virginia)

Of the seven pitchers selected on Tuesday, five are left-handed, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s followed the Royals. They love left-handed pitching in the draft.

Selman didn’t pitch much in many innings at Vanderbilt until this year when he settled into the role. MLB.com wonders if he’ll sign or return to Vanderbilt for his last year while they also note that his secondary pitches could use refinement. He struck out 80 batters in 76 innings during his junior season.

Kenny Diekroeger is interesting. He turned down big money before going to Stanford in the past, but looked like a top 10 pick at one point. If he finally signs this time, he could be a few refinements from pushing Christian Colon and Johnny Giavotella at second (where most think he’ll end up rather than shortstop).

Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado has an awesome name and just turned 17 in February. He could be interesting but that’s way down the line.

Daniel Stumpf struck out 108 batters in 111 innings in junior college. Dylan Sons was described as a “projectible lefty” by Royals scout Lonnie Goldberg.

The Royals haven’t selected a college senior yet, which has seemed to be a trend through the first 15 rounds. The Royals have around $6.2 million to allot to their first ten selections. Some of the risk noted by draft commentators is that underclassmen have some leverage to ask for a higher bonus, so the Royals may not sign all of their top 10 (which isn’t that unusual most years for any team).

They’ll look to continue to add depth and find those hidden gems in the last 25 rounds of the draft starting Wednesday at 11 a.m. CST on  MLB.com. The crew at Seedlings to Stars is going through draft selections as well while they follow the action.

There were probably a lot of Royals fans clamoring for Appel but it seemed unlikely that the Royals would be able to negotiate a contract with him given his agent is Scott Boras.  Therefore, the Royals took the guy they had been wanting, in Kyle Zimmer.  Zimmer was in the list of three of the top collegiate pitchers available in this draft also including Appel and LSU right hander Kevin Gausman.

My first reaction to the selection is praise.  I think the Royals did the right thing in selecting Zimmer and it seems most Royals fans have been in favor of the move as well, or at least those on Twitter.  Zimmer had a fantastic season for the Dons this past year posting a 2.85 ERA and serving as the club’s ace.  I’m more fascinated by his ability to limit his walks and rack up strikeouts.  He recorded 104 strikeouts to only 17 walks in 2012.

Zimmer stands at 6’4″ and weighs in at 220 pounds.  He is a young 20 year old with plenty of time to grow and develop as he hits the professional ranks.  I believe he has a few mechanical issues to work on but nothing major.  It appears he has a lean towards home and breaks his hands a tad too early, but once again it’s not a major issue.

He has three good offerings including a curveball, changeup, and a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and has touched 99.  He is very polished for someone who picked up pitching his freshman season at USF after transitioning from 3rd base.  He has a fresh arm and could be on the fast track for the big leagues.  I believe we could see Zimmer as early as the 2014 season.  My first projection has him as a solid number 2 with the possibility of advancing into an ace, but of course, that would depend on his development and the Royals ability to develop him as a starter.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

Right away, they threw a wrench into that, taking Carlos Correa instead. Then the Twins took Byron Buxton. Then the Mariners took Mike Zunino.

We talked this weekend about who the Royals might take and it seemed destined that they’d take a pitcher, the question was whether it would be a high school or college arm. When Baltimore took Kevin Gausman, it left a decision up to the Royals. Now the question was Appel or someone else?

They took Kyle Zimmer out of San Francisco instead of Appel. The reaction hasn’t been as outraged as one may have expected. Appel ended up with Pittsburgh at the eighth pick.

So what do the Royals have in their prospective new top pitching prospect?

Zimmer is a converted infielder who didn’t pitch full time until college. At 20 years old, he doesn’t have a lot of wear on his arm but scouts really like his stuff. He works a fastball in the mid-90s with movement and sink along with good breaking stuff and a developing changeup. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com likes his four pitch mix and others note his upside.

The University of San Francisco lists him at 6’4″ and 220 pounds and because he maintains his velocity late into starts, he looks the part of a front line starter. In 13 starts in 2012, he threw 88.1 innings, striking out 104 and walking 17.

That all being said, it’s not a perfect selection. Compared to Appel or Gausman, the two other big name college pitchers, Zimmer doesn’t have the same level of experience so while college pitchers can move through a farm system quickly, he may take longer to rise through. There were reports of lost velocity at the end of the year, and while most chalk that up to a hamstring injury (which shouldn’t be much of an issue), it’s still nothing you want to see from a first round pick.

Most of the reactions to the pick have been positive. Greg Schaum praised his attitude. Robert Ford noted that the Royals had Zimmer at the top of their draft board. Rany Jazayerli suggested that Zimmer wasn’t too far removed from being in Appel’s class. Kevin Goldstein called it a “good pick” after guessing the Royals would pass on Zimmer.

Now it’s up to the Royals to sign Zimmer. Schaum suggested that Zimmer could be less pricey than Gausman would have been and Appel slipped due to his contract demands. The new CBA moved the deadline up into mid-July every year rather than into August as in past years. That means that the Royals can see Zimmer in short season ball this year and gives them the opportunity to start evaluating him sooner.

Several mock MLB Drafts have RHP Kyle Zimmer of the University of San Francisco joining Eric Hosmer and the Royals. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Other names that could be in line are: LSU RHP Kevin Gausman, Richie Shaffer 3B from Clemson and Lucas Giolito of Harvard-Westlake School in California. In addition here are a few more names that have shown up during searches, Mike Zunino catcher from Florida, Max Fried who is a high school teammate of Giolito’s in California and Carlos Correa from Puerto Rico Baseball Academy.

In year’s past, the Royals have stocked their farm system with talent near the top of the first round. Their 2009 pick of Aaron Crow with the twelfth overall pick is the lowest they’ve picked since 2004 when Billy Butler was the 14th overall pick. This year, they hold the fifth overall selection, the sixth year in the last seven that they’ve had a top five pick.

Unlike the last few years, there’s no clear cut number one overall pick and the first round is considered thinner than most. While that’s a bit murky for the team and fans to predict who will fall where, for a team at the top like the Royals, the drop isn’t that sharp. There should be quality players available no matter what direction they go.

The new collective bargaining agreement does change things this year. In previous drafts, the Royals could select players who had fallen because other teams weren’t willing to pay out signing bonuses that exceeded the league’s slot recommendations. Players like Wil Myers and Jason Adam had scholarship offers but, when the Royals offered more than slot to them, signed with Kansas City. Now they’re two of the top prospects in the system. This year, the Royals have $6.1 million to cover their first ten rounds of picks. For perspective, last year, they signed first round pick Bubba Starling to a team-record $7.5 million bonus.

Starling was a special talent and his commitment to Nebraska football factored into the size of the bonus, but most other first round picks were near slot levels. That would have been $2.52 million last year, and their slot budget for the pick this year is $3.5 million. It may mean they miss out on a high school player in the seventh or eighth round when it comes time to sign them, but the top rounds obviously take priority.

That leads to another consideration – should the Royals pick a high school player or college player? Financially, that may lead them to a college junior (like Kyle Zimmer) over a sophomore (like Kevin Gausman) because the sophomore has more leverage to go back to school*. It may not make a difference, though. The bigger difference is between a high school player who has a commitment to a college and it may take more to sign them out of it.

*I’m assuming that Stanford junior Mark Appel will be taken first overall by Houston, as is suspected.

Ultimately, the decision should be to select whoever the best player available is. Ideally, that will also match up with a position of need. In the Royals case, starting pitching is the obvious weakness to the Process. While Danny Duffy and John Lamb recover from Tommy John surgery and Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer fall below expectations, Jake Odorizzi, with just a handful of Triple A starts, sits as the top pitching prospect who’s within a year of the big leagues. If the Royals feel they’re close to contention, a college arm is the way to go. Both Gausman and Zimmer are considered two of the best in the draft and could be the pick if they make it through the first four selections. In the past, other teams have taken college pitchers and seen them make the majors quickly, with Chris Sale of the White Sox, Drew Pomeranz of the Rockies (drafted by the Indians) and Mike Leake of the Reds being examples. All three made their big league debuts within 13 months of signing.

If the Royals see that as a priority, a college arm is most likely their decision, as they could be up with the club in early 2013, or even sooner (though the Royals aren’t typically the team to push a prospect that  quickly).

If they don’t see a player out of college who fits the bill, they can choose a high school pitcher, though the development time would be increased and the risk that they bust increases. There may be more upside if it’s a pitcher like Lucas Giolito, who could be a top five pick, but he’d take a while to climb up the ranks.

Dayton Moore. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The best move would be to go with the best player available, regardless of need. If that turns out to be a college pitcher and they have options available, great. That’s on the mind of Dayton Moore according to recent comments. If that means they pass on a player like 17-year-old Carlos Correa, it could be a mistake. Correa is a high school shortstop who has been compared to Orioles prospect Manny Machado before, and as Rany Jazayerli has determined, a player’s age at the time of the draft can have an impact to how quickly they develop and jump through a minor league system.

Even if the Royals have Alcides Escobar at shortstop now, within a few years, he may suffer injury that hampers his defensive range and ability or his hitting may regress to Jose Lind-levels. If Correa (or any other player that may be the top player available) is there and were to rise through the Royals system, the opportunity of trading the older player would always be present.

There are a multitude of options for the Royals on Monday. My guess is that if a college pitcher is available, that’s the direction they’ll go, and that also likely means that a couple of high-ranked high school players may have been selected, so the question of “best available vs. college arm” may be irrelevant. Of course, by the end of the night Monday, we’ll also have the answer to that question.