We’ve already talked about Anibal Sanchez as the Royals likely top target and the potential availability of Dan Haren. Another name the Royals have been linked to is the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse.

Along with Sanchez, Lohse could be “at the top of [the Royals] list” this winter.

September 18, 2012; St. Louis, MO. USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (26) throws to a Houston Astros batter during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

The latest news is that the Cardinals haven’t offered Lohse anything yet, and, with St. Louis in the playoffs, aren’t likely to take his focus off the action on the field. They’ll have the opportunity to offer him a qualifying offer – estimated to be around $13.3 million for one year – in order to obtain compensation if he signs elsewhere. His current contract paid him $41 million over four years.

The Royals wouldn’t surrender a pick if the Cardinals do make a qualifying offer, so that isn’t a concern. Lohse turned 34 years old almost two weeks ago, so he’s looking for his last big payday. Former GM and XM Radio host Jim Bowden thinks the Royals could be a fit, with some conditions:

KC Royals would be a nice fit for Lohse will be interesting to see if Royals decide to play for him & will commit yrs & $ needed to be in it

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) October 15, 2012

Translation: the Royals may have to overpay for Lohse’s services.

Caution Advised

I’ve already mentioned Lohse’s age. If age can be a concern for Haren (who is 32), then Lohse’s needs to be considered. While his best years have come in the last five years, there’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be solid, and age has a way of causing rapid regression. The Royals already have Bruce Chen on staff for next year and his overall numbers looked like what you’d expect from a pitcher in his mid-thirties who didn’t always have it every night.

Lohse will get a lot of buzz since he’s a guy who can go throw 200 innings in a year and because he’s been a part of successful Cardinals teams. That has value and he’d be a good piece of a competitive rotation. He’s been around league average throughout most of his career, doesn’t walk too many, doesn’t give up a lot of homers, doesn’t get hit too hard.

My fear is that the Royals will take Bowden’s advice and pay a little more than they need to to bring Lohse aboard. I’m afraid they’ll pay him a Gil Meche type of deal based on a career year. My fear is that he turns into the 2013 version of 1990′s Storm Davis. While his 2012 numbers look good – and nobody can look past a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings – instinct suggests he can only be worse next season.

Over his career, Lohse has a 4.45 ERA, working out to a 97 ERA+. His strong ERAs with the Cardinals are tempered by the fact that he’s in the National League, so relatively, his three good years are still good, but many other pitchers are in the same area in the rankings. It doesn’t automatically transfer to the other league if he were to sign with the Royals. Since Lohse isn’t a strikeout guy, and more balls will get put into play, moving to a more offensive-oriented league could hurt him. His 2012 numbers outperformed his peripherals, as his BABIP was a low .262 and his xFIP sat more than a run higher than his ERA (3.96). He’s due to regress and I have a bad feeling the Royals will have to choose between Lohse or Sanchez – and they’ll choose poorly.

Taking Inventory

That’s not to say that Lohse is a 6.00 ERA waiting to happen. He’s got value, but not what I think the Royals will have to pay. He has a fastball that hangs around 90 mph, mixes in a slider and changeup, all of which were valuable pitches this season. His secondary stuff has been consistently good. He can get you 190-210 innings a year.

There’s just no one skill that stands out. He’d be a fine #3 starter, but I’d rather retain Jeremy Guthrie over him. If he were affordable to the point that the Royals could sign Sanchez, Guthrie and Lohse, then I’d be less concerned. While David Glass has said he’s going to pay up this winter, the skepticism won’t go away until it’s confirmed that he’s signed anyone. All three may command eight figure annual salaries, and I can’t see Glass going that far. Also, Lohse would be making somewhere from  $10-13 million in 2016 when he’ll be approaching 38 years old, and that’s if he’s looking for a four year deal. If he makes the Royals pay for an extra year, that’s obviously a bigger commitment, and one that could haunt them before the deal hits its midway point.

Would Lohse be an upgrade from Luke Hochevar or Chen? Yes. If he were affordable, I’d have little worry about him, but he’s going to cost, and perhaps even more than just the dollars involved. If it comes down to Lohse versus Sanchez and the Royals choose Lohse, there’s the opportunity cost as well, both in missing out on Sanchez or in having a $13 million salary weigh down the team in three years and possibly prevent signing another, younger, better option. I’d rather take the shot on Sanchez.

Note: Buster Olney passed on that he’d heard a Lohse deal could command $60-75 million, which is far too much for a pitcher of his caliber, in my opinion.

Vin Mazzaro gets the start in the opener against the Cardinals as the I-70 Series shifts to Kauffman Stadium this weekend. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Records: St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) @ Kansas City Royals (31-36)

Season Series: Royals 2-1 (won series in St. Louis June 15-17)
June 15 – Kansas City 3-2               WP: V. Mazzaro                LP: K. Lohse        S: J. Broxton
June 16 – St. Louis 10-7                   WP: M. Boggs                    LP: T. Collins       S: J. Motte
June 17 – Kansas City 5-3 F/15     WP: J. Broxton                 LP: E. Sanchez

Recap of last weekend: In game one the Royals took a 3-0 lead on the Cardinals before St. Louis scored twice in the seventh innings. Jonathan Broxton had an adventurous ninth before Mike Moustakas threw out Tyler Green at home to end the game. On Saturday the Cardinals won 10-7, the home team roughed up Bruce Chen taking a 6-1 lead after two innings. KC stormed by scoring the next six-runs taking a 7-6 lead in the seventh before the Redbirds countered with three in the bottom of the inning. The finale on Father’s Day went 15-innings with the Royals winning 5-3 when Yuniesky Betancourt hit a two-run homer in the top of the fifteenth inning.

Since they last they met: KC went to Houston and took 2-of-3 against the Astros after losing the first game of the series. St. Louis traveled to Detroit in a rematch of the 2006 World Series but lost the series to the Tigers two games to one, winning the middle game.

Central Standings:
AL Central                                                           NL Central
Cleveland Indiana (36-32)                             Cincinnati Reds (38-30)
Chicago White Sox (36-33)           0.5          Pittsburgh Pirates (36-32)             2.0
Detroit Tigers (34-35)                     2.5          St. Louis Cardinals (35-35)             4.0
Kansas City Royals (31-26)            4.5          Milwaukee Brewers (32-37)        6.5
Minnesota Twins (27-41)              9.0          Houston Astros (28-41)                 10.5
Chicago Cubs (24-45)                      14.5

Sal is back!: Tonight Salvador Perez will make his 2012 season debut for the Kansas City Royals. In addition ex-Royal Carlos Beltran is back at the K for the first time but wearing red and white. Beltran in his career is a .299, with 60 homeruns, 268 RBIs and 95 stolen bases at the Kauffman Stadium.

Turning it around at home: Kansas City is 11-20 at home this season but did sweep the Brewers in their quick three-game home stand last week. Since starting 0-10, the Royals have played better winning six of their last nine at home.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Joe Kelly (0-0, 2.89) v. Vin Mazzaro (3-1, 2.57)
Saturday, 1:10 pm – Adam Wainwright (5-7, 4.46) v. Luis Mendoza (2-3, 4.69)
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.80) v. Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.70)