One question that didn’t seem to be on anybody’s mind was “how will the bullpen do?”

It was assumed that the bullpen would keep rolling along. With big arms in Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins as the primary options, it seemed like they’d continue their successes. Crow and Collins have both been solid in the early going, but Holland blew his second save chance of the year, then gave up a run on the next night and was pulled for Herrera. Even his next appearance required a Joe Mauer strikeout in the rain to strand three runners (that he’d put on) and preserve a lead.

Apr 4, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) pitches against the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. The Kansas City Royals defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-1. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Panic. Uproar. Hand-wringing.

Then, Herrera entered Tuesday night’s game in Atlanta as the owner of a sparkling 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 5.1 scoreless innings.

On April 21, 2012, Herrera gave up a homer to the first batter he faced, Edwin Encarnacion. After a ground out, he gave up a homer to  Colby Rasmus. Then he gave up zero homers in May. And in June. And July. August. September. He went nearly a full year between giving up homers, then gave up three in four batters against the Braves.

The Royals and Herrera thought he was tipping his pitches, and perhaps he was. But, as Craig Brown pointed out, tipping or not, he was laying in some fat pitches to some good hitters. Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Dan Uggla combined to hit 63 homers last season with Upton and Uggla in down years. In 2011, the trio combined for 81. If you put a fastball down the middle to these guys, they’ll hit it out.

And that’s what happened to Herrera.

So on Wednesday, Ned Yost had to protect a one run lead after a fantastic Wade Davis start in Atlanta. And while many were worrying about the bullpen, Yost instead went right back to Herrera, who rewarded his faith by striking out Andrelton Simmons to start the eighth inning, then induced a pop up from B.J. Upton after a Ramiro Pena pinch hit single. Heyward grounded into a force out.

Then, Holland came in to close the game out. A combination of off days and no save situations (or, after a complete game from Shields and eight innings from Santana, no innings really) meant that Holland hadn’t pitched since the rainy game against the Twins. In many situations, a reliever can be shaky after a long layoff, and Holland had went a week without getting into a game. After his previous struggles, there was enough reason to remain concerned. Facing Upton, Evan Gattis and Uggla didn’t make it any more comforting.

So of course Holland steps up and strikes out the side on 14 pitches. He threw nine strikes, five of which were on whiffs. None of the three Braves hitters made contact.

April 17, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) pitches in the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Royals won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

It makes you wonder what anyone was worried about in the first place.

They say that a relief pitcher has to have a short memory. Less than 24 hours after giving up three bombs, Herrera cruised through an inning to hold a one-run lead. Holland, after struggling for most of his 2013, came in and looked dominant.

Now maybe Holland and Herrera go back out tomorrow and get shelled again. Maybe they go through the rest of the year struggling and Wednesday is just a nice reminder of how easy it is to close out the last two innings. Herrera’s 2013 won’t be defined by one night in Atlanta. Holland’s 2012 saw him finish with a 2.96 ERA (and 2.29 FIP) despite an April where he gave up eight runs in 6.1 innings (but only 14 from May until the end).

Holland’s control issues early can’t be ignored, but he also can’t be condemned by four appearances. Likewise, one bad night for Herrera is probably an anomaly considering his solid 2012 and dominant start to 2013. If there’s a pitch-tipping issue, address it, monitor it over the course of the year, and catch it before it’s another issue. Wednesday’s games should do a lot to ease concerns about the back-end of the Royals bullpen. They won’t be perfect the rest of the way. Nobody can be. But there’s going to be more good than bad.

Exhale. Deep breaths.

Hit us up at KoKMailbag@gmail.com. On to the bag:

Should Kelvin Herrera move to starter? Why won’t Crow? – Jeremy in Blue Springs

I love the idea of Herrera as a starter and I’m not sold on the reasons being given that he wouldn’t be able to do it. Just because a reliever transitions to starter doesn’t automatically mean that they need to start pacing themselves in an effort to get deeper into games. Of all the pitchers I’ve coached, trained, and all the innings I’ve thrown myself, to have the thought that pitch No.2 needed to be thrown with any less conscious effort than pitch No.88 is befuddling to me. And if I have a pitcher that’s worried about pitch No.88 in the first inning, then I don’t want him pitching for me.

And if there’s a worry that he’ll run out of gas, train better. The biggest misconception about pitchers is that they need some kind of outwardly endurance that can only be acquired by running lots and lots of miles; that pitching is a marathon. It’s not. It’s just not.

Pitching is just a bunch of sprints run one after another with somewhere between a 5 and 10 minute break every 18 or so. If you’re telling me that Herrera’s 100 mph, or any other pitcher’s fastball, can’t last for 6 to 7 sequences of 18 pitches over the course of 2 ½ hours, then I’ll show you an pitcher and an organization that doesn’t know how to condition.

What’s your deal with Gordon? – Steve in Wichita

I’m assuming this one is for me personally since I’m the resident Gordon fanboy around these parts.

I’m a sucker for elite athletes, and as much as I use statistics to frame my arguments, at my core I’m still a baseball fan with a player/coach/recruiter/scouts eye. And because of that the first thing I look for before anything else is the natural body control and movement skills that are unmistakable in terrific athletes. Gordon is one of those guys. There is no weakness to what his athleticism can do – except elite speed – and those are the guys that turn into All-Stars and top tier players. Those are the ones you bet on to fulfill their potential.

How would you have advised Dayton Moore this offseason? – Jordan in Ames

Use the only resource you are truly in abundance of: money. Not talent.

Wil Myers may or may not have been better than Jeff Francoeur this season, but given what we know of Francoeur and his career, the odds are not in his favor. And the idea that prospects are just prospects and they bust is the most self-fulfilling form of dis-logic imaginable. Under that same line of thinking Billy Butler would have never been good, Alex Gordon would have never been good, and any star on any team would have been, and will never be good. It’s the easy way to defend the players that are currently on the team without ever establishing who will be next…

I’m off the rails now…this offseason…

Attack with offense. This is still a lineup that is vastly unproven in the spots that need to improve, and incredibly proven in other spots that will most certainly see 600 plate appearances. The central focus on pitching and pitching only never made much sense to me. There are still at least three glaring holes in the every day lineup with at least two more that could easily be. That’s not a recipe for success.

Wil Myers may have been what the Royals needed to get a return like James Shields, but in the immortal words of Dr. Malcom in Jurassic Park: “you were so preoccupied with whether or not you could that you didn’t stop to think if you should.”

September 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) delivers a pitch in the seventh inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The fireballer excelled with a move to the bullpen in 2011, where he started the season with High-A Wilmington and finished it in the big leagues. Herrera is now seen as the Royals closer of the future.

He averaged 98.5 mph on his fastball in 2012 and topped at 103 mph. With that type of fastball, he can exploit hitters with his offspeed pitches. Batters only put his high 80s changeup into play about a quarter of the time.

Herrera was 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 76 games (with three saves). He was a key cog in a bullpen that had the American League’s fourth best ERA.

However he was MUCH better in the second half of 2012 (where he picked up all of his saves). From May 1st on, he struck out 69 in 74.1 innings while walking twenty. He did not allow a homerun.

At the end of his rookie season, Baseball America named him to their All-Rookie Team (as their closer). Herrera led all rookie relievers in games and innings pitched. He also had a ground ball rate of 55%.

It will be interesting to see how manager Ned Yost uses his bullpen in 2013. Will it be Greg Holland getting the ball in the ninth inning, or will it be Herrera?

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) throws a pitch in the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

In those 84.1 innings, Herrera struck out 77 and walked just 21. Batters hit the ball on the ground 55% of the time.

In other words, he’s good.

So good, in fact, that he earned a spot on Baseball America’s All-Rookie Team.

Armed with a fastball that went as high as 103 mph this year (and had the highest average velocity in the majors), he’s got a good chance to be dominant. His walkrate tells us that he’s able to command where he puts the ball, and, much to the chagrin of many hitters in the league, he has a changeup that’s not only strong, but has been called the filthiest pitch among relievers all season.

Of course, this is nothing we didn’t already know. Back in August, I took a long look at the pitch’s effectiveness. Set up by a fastball that requires batters to cheat, his changeup drops to the mid-80s. Considering it also tumbles down and in to right-handed hitters and down and away from lefties, it’s the perfect complement.

How’d you like to be that batter, geared up for triple digit heat in a full count and have to adjust to the 86 mph change that falls off the table? Can’t imagine that’s a lot of fun at all. Half of his strikeouts have been on changeups, even though he throws them less frequently than the fastball with two strikes. – Kings of Kauffman, Kelvin Herrera’s Nasty Changeup

He was one of the more valuable relievers in baseball with 1.9 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR (and according to Fangraphs, only seven relievers are more valuable, including teammate Greg Holland).

Interestingly, two of Herrera’s teammates were mentioned in the article about filthiest pitches. Tim Collins‘s curveball and changeup had more movement than any other reliever and Luke Hochevar‘s cutter rated as the best among big league cut fastballs (though the Royals don’t want him to throw it, for some reason). Before the 2011 season, Buster Olney proclaimed Hochevar’s slider one of the most valuable in the game. Perhaps it’s a mix up in classifying pitches that would both be thrown hard and both would have horizontal movement – but it also makes you wonder how Hochevar can’t figure it out with such an arsenal.

But Herrera can. There’s a chance the Royals may look at him as a starter some day, and he has the pitches to succeed there. That probably won’t happen next season, as he forms part of a formidable late-inning combo with Holland and could fill in as closer if necessary. Getting more innings out of him as a starter would increase his overall value, but he has a history of arm troubles while in the minor leagues that must be making the Royals hesitant to move him there.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

Herrera has the changeup armed and ready. Batters beware. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

In Tuesday’s win over the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera came in to finish the seventh inning and stayed in for the eighth. The first batter he faced was Alexei Ramirez. Herrera opened up with three 99 mph fastballs before unleashing his best pitch – after a foul ball he threw an 86 mph changeup that tumbled down and in for a swinging strikeout.

Herrera rocketed through the Royals system last year as a 21-year-old, opening in High A and finishing as a September callup. He pitched well this spring and earned a spot in the bullpen. Since, he’s put up 58 innings, with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s struck out 56 batters while walking just 12.

Movement of Kelvin Herrera's changeup (TexasLeaguers.com)

A big part of that is that he’s armed with a fastball that averages 97 mph which is difficult to catch up to for even the best hitters, but his changeup is what really stands out.

You can see that in the video below at the 22 second mark where the ball falls away from John Jaso and he catches it on the end of the bat, shattering the barrel:

According to TexasLeaguers.com, Herrera throws the changeup 21.8% of the time and gets it over for a strike almost 75% of the time. Moreover, it results in a swing and a miss more than a quarter of the time. In those moments when the batter does make contact, it turns into a ground ball an astounding 78.6% of the time.

Herrera's changeup location vs. LHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He throws the pitch at nearly the same rate to right-handed batters (21%) as he does left-handed batters (25.8%), and it settles in the same area of the strike zone with regularity. It dives down and in on righties and floats away from lefties. As a result, his splits look even, with neither handed batter being able to do much against him at all. That helps his value as a pitcher since he can be trusted to face the left-handed batters when necessary.

So this pitch 1) has a stark speed differential from his big fastball 2) has a lot of movement and is hard to hit and 3) when it is hit, it’s often hit on the ground.

That’s a winning recipe.

The numbers suggest that not only is Herrera’s changeup effective – it’d be hard to argue that it wasn’t just by watching film alone – but it’s the fifth most valuable changeup in baseball among pitchers with 50 IP or more and one of the most valuable overall. Batters have a .369 OPS when he’s thrown the changeup.

Herrera's changeup location vs. RHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He’s willing to throw it in nearly any count, though it’s frequently used with two strikes and hardly used for the first pitch of an at bat. What’s interesting is that he’s comfortable throwing the changeup in the middle of a count with two balls and while he’s thrown the change in three ball counts just 11 times total all season, nine of those were in full counts. How’d you like to be that batter, geared up for triple digit heat in a full count and have to adjust to the 86 mph change that falls off the table? Can’t imagine that’s a lot of fun at all. Half of his strikeouts have been on changeups, even though he throws them less frequently than the fastball with two strikes.

Herrera primarily relies on fastballs and changeups to get through his innings, only throwing a curve about 8% of the time. As a reliever, that’s okay because both pitches are so strong he can use them regularly in shorter outings. So far this year, he’s faced more than nine batters one time when he faced 10 Pirates, so he isn’t getting through a lineup more than once. I bring this up because there are calls to make Herrera a starter some time in the future. His stuff warrants the question, though there are concerns.

He missed large chunks of time in the minors due to injury (he appeared in 9 games combined in 2009 and 2010) which bring his durability in a rotation into question. Once moved into the bullpen full time starting last year, he took off. He turns 23 on the last day of 2012, though, so the Royals could take a look if they wanted to – though it’s probably best to take what he can do now at maximum effort and wield it when necessary as a traditional fireman of sorts. With Greg Holland assuming the closer’s role, Herrera’s ability to get strikeouts and ground balls makes him an ideal candidate out of the bullpen to come in during a jam. He doesn’t walk many at all either. He has more value as a starter, but if he gets hurt and ends up being ineffective, what value is there in that?

No matter what his role ultimately turns out to be, Herrera’s changeup will continue to wreak havoc on American League batters.

–A week after this article, FanGraphs ended up showing a fun .gif of Herrera’s changeup with some updated stats on its effectiveness.

*(All pitch selection numbers are based off of the figures on TexasLeaguers.com as of 11 p.m. August 7.)

The Royals bullpen is supposed to be the strength of its pitching staff, and if you review almost any pitching statistic, you’ll find this is true.  And who should be the cream of the crop in this group?  The closer of course.  The closer should dominate opposing batters, intimidating them into submission during the final inning of a game.  While Broxton’s ERA has been solid, by almost every other measurement you’ll discover that he is teetering on the brink and in my opinion his luck may run out soon.

Of the Royals five most often used relief pitchers (including Aaron Crow, Jose Mijares, Kelvin Herrera, and Tim Collins) Broxton possesses the highest WHIP, the lowest strikeout ratio, and the most H/9 (hits per 9 innings.)  This type of performance will eventually impact his luck-induced ERA performance and will result in runs scored, lots of them.  When Broxton waddles to the mound, the only hearts he strikes fear into are in the pounding chests of nervous Royals fans.

I'm just not that into you Jonathan Broxton (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Maybe this is a little bit shallow of me to say, but I prefer my team’s players at least have the appearance of athleticism and not wear pants that two teammates can fit inside.  Broxton looks more like a reject from a Tommy Boy casting call than a professional baseball player.  And I know it’s results that count, not appearance, but really…  Broxton’s body is his tool, it’s what allows him to be a major league pitcher.  If he was a serious athlete who truly wanted to excel, he’d drop 100 pounds and get himself in shape.

Broxton’s performance is like a locomotive whose wheels are coming off, but it just hasn’t jumped the track yet.  He’s a train wreck waiting to happen.

I attended one of the recent interleague games in Houston and had a chance to watch Broxton and the other pitchers take a few swings in the batting cage during pregame warmups.  There was a lot of discussion about a few balls that Broxton sent into the left field seats and off the outfield wall.  It was a pretty impressive display – for a pitcher.  But I still don’t think any of the fans who were oohing and aahing at his hitting prowess were excited at the prospect of watching Broxton and his lifetime .000 batting average step into the box.  Can you imagine Jonathan hitting a ground ball to the shortstop and trying to “leg it out.”  The mental image is jarring.

The good news is that there is a solution to this problem.  I recommend the Royals point to Broxton’s stellar ERA, his track record as an All-Star closer, package him with Jeff Francoeur (sorry Frenchy, I love ya, but you have to go – #FreeWil) and try to get something, anything, in return before they both implode and lose all their value.

Dayton Moore should take some time out during the All-Star festivities, visit with his General Manager buddies that attend the game, and find a new home for both of these guys.  Frenchy has value as a clubhouse leader & goodwill ambassador, and Broxton could potentially be a decent 7^th inning guy – that has to be worth something.

The time is now Dayton.  Find a deal, pull the trigger, cut our losses before Broxton and Frenchy lose their value, and let’s move forward to the future with Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera as our closer.

May 2, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) wipes his brow after being relieved during the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Here’s a statement that will surprise no one. The Royals bullpen has pitched more innings than any other bullpen in baseball, and it’s not really even close. After Tuesday, the Royals bullpen has thrown 186 innings. That’s just over 15 innings more than the next closest team—Baltimore. The high number of innings make the 3.25 ERA—11^th in MLB—more impressive than it seems.

Does it matter that the Royals are burning through bullpen innings like Chipotle burns through colons? Most would say yes. I’m going to say … kind of. Ideally, the Royals wouldn’t use their bullpen so much, but it’s not the end of the world.

I think it’s a safe assumption that this bullpen will burnout before the season is over. I would be fairly surprised if guys like Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, and Kelvin Herrera are still pitching effectively in September, if they’re pitching at all. They’re young and get used a lot. Collins is on pace for roughly 85 IP; Herrera is on pace for roughly 92 IP. That’s a lot of innings for a reliever.

But I don’t think this matters too much. Bullpen burnout is really only an issue if a team is going to compete. The Royals will almost certainly not be in the playoff hunt this year. No one expects that. I’m not saying it can’t happen; I’m just saying it won’t. So, bullpen effectiveness down the stretch isn’t as much of an issue.

The only real downside to pitching them so much early is the potential for injury. We know Herrera has a history of arm troubles, and with that incredible heater, it’s not tough to see them creeping up again. It will be interesting to see if the Royals choose to shut a reliever down early if he hits a certain number of innings. Herrera’s never thrown more than 70 innings in a season, and that was in 2011. Before last season he was plagued by injury. One thing the team can’t afford to do is get this excellent bullpen hurt so they might take precaution against that later in the season.

What’s particularly intriguing is the unorthodox way Ned Yost has chosen to employ the boys in the pen. Most bloggers, analysts, and fans probably saw it coming, but it’s still wild to see him utilizing the bullpen the way he has—essentially using the Omaha bullpen as an extended version of the Kansas City bullpen and carrying what are essentially “backup” starters.

Maybe more so than at any other point in the last 10 years, this team subverts traditional starter/reliever roles, often bringing in long-men early in games who serve as second starters. The motives behind these moves are simple—their starters suck—but simply looking at the unorthodox pattern that Yost has gotten into is fascinating. At one point, this team carried three swing-men—three guys who were essentially extra starters—in the bullpen. The idea behind this was simple. Yost knew that his starters were going to have short outings. So, he decided to have backup starters ready to go. At any given point, the Royals have three non-starter starters (Nate Adcock, Luis Mendoza, and Everett Teaford) in play.

Due to injuries, these guys aren’t all playing right now, but Yost is, inadvertently I think, experimenting with a different approach to pitching. Has it ever been done before? I have no idea. I’m not a baseball historian. But I know it’s not done often. There’s a saying that innovation is bred by necessity. That’s what this approach to pitching is—necessary. It’s necessary because this starting rotation is atrocious.

Do I recommend this system? No. But can anyone honestly say it’s not the best for what they’ve got roster wise? When healthy, they have 8-9 average to bad starters at best. Why not keep it fluid? Let them shoulder the burden as a group, by keeping a long-reliever ready in the pen at a moment’s notice. When one guy isn’t working, pull him quickly and let the other guy go to work.

Yes, the bullpen will probably burnout. But that won’t matter this year. What will matter is inspiring hope by winning a little. And using the bullpen early and often gives them that chance.

Luke Hochevar was a force on Friday. Can he keep the trend going? Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-US PRESSWIRE

The Dodgers drafted Luke Hochevar twice and showings like Friday’s six shutout innings can tell you why. Hochevar struck out eight batters, walked none and gave up just three hits while the bullpen held a two run lead.

The trio of Jonathan Broxton, Louis Coleman and Kelvin Herrera kept the Dodgers split squad off the board in the last three innings. Altogether, the Royals pitchers struck out eleven and allowed five baserunners. Herrera pitched the ninth for a save. Broxton had two strikeouts in a 12 pitch inning. Both Broxton and Herrera are in the mix for the closer’s spot after Joakim Soria is opting for Tommy John surgery, and more outings like today’s should make Broxton a heavy favorite.

The Royals scored first in the second inning after a Mike Moustakas double was followed by newcomer Jason Bourgeois‘s single up the middle. That run held up but they added another run in the seventh after Eric Hosmer stretched a single into a double, moved to third and scored on a sacrifice fly. He also played in right field, an experiment by Ned Yost to get him some innings in the outfield in case they want to get Billy Butler in an interleague lineup at first while still getting Hosmer in the order. He had one play in right, a foul out down the line.

Of all the players on the field, though, Luke Hochevar stood out. After a solid 2011 second half, he’s so far carried it over to his spring performance. Through 14 innings, he has 15 strikeouts and only one walk. Granted, it’s only spring training, but he’s performing. He induced six ground outs as well. Trey Hillman, acting as manager for Don Mattingly (who was with the other squad), told Joel Goldberg that he had “really impressive command and control” noting that his slider has become more effective.

Hochevar’s slider can be among the best pitches in the league – yes, the league – if he can get it working. But he’s shown flashes of greatness before. He’s shown stretches of consistency before. It’s time for him to do so without falling apart in one start. He’s in line to make his second consecutive opening day start. While the rest of the potential starters waver, he’s the most stable. Will it hold up?

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Joakim Soria has been the key member of the Royals bullpen since Octavio Dotel was traded away back in 2007. Since, he’s been an All-Star twice and looked like the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera as the never-wavering elite closer in the game.

His elbow, of course, has other ideas.

Before the worst news was reported, Robert Ford discussed the impact of a Soria injury and how it relates to the construction of the Royals bullpen:

Modern-day bullpens are built backward, from the closer on out, and having instability at the closer’s spot can be a recipe for disaster. If Soria has to miss significant time, the Royals may be able to weather the absence of their closer better than most.

Following the now-standard model of bullpen construction, the Royals need to determine who their closer is going to be to open the season.

Closer Candidates (unscientific estimated likelihood, or, a guess if you will)

Jonathan Broxton (50%): Broxton was, at one point, an elite set up man who inherited the closer’s role with the Dodgers, then had an All-Star 2009 where he struck out better than 13 batters per nine innings and limited teams to less than one baserunner per inning. In 2010, he ran into arm troubles and his performance suffered into last year. His velocity and strikeouts dropped while batters hit him harder, walked more and put up a 5.68 ERA against him. He looked sharp in one spring outing, but in Tuesday’s game, he gave up a few hits and committed an error. My guess is that Ned Yost will cite his “experience as a closer” as a means to setting him up in that role.

Aaron Crow (20%): The Royals officially announced what most everyone knew was going to happen anyway, that Aaron Crow would move back to the bullpen after a half-hearted look at him as a rotation candidate. That’s not so much Crow’s fault, as most of his seven innings have been strong and he’s been striking people out. On Tuesday, he used six pitches to strike out the first two Angels he faced. When Soria struggled last year as the closer, Crow took over the role (technically) though he never ran into a save opportunity while Soria settled down. When called into tight spots in other contexts, though, Crow usually showed the ability to come in and get the out.

He has the typical fastball/slider combination that many late-inning relievers have and both pitches can be strong when he has them going well. He’s prone to a little inconsistency and had bad platoon splits. Right-handers put up a .537 OPS against him. Lefties? .919.

Greg Holland has the stuff, but does he get the opportunity to close? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Greg Holland (20%): There’s a great bit of research over at ESPN about Holland’s slider and his potential as a closer. Unlike Crow, the pitch gives him the opportunity to manhandle left-handed batters who mustered only a .522 OPS against him. Righties were at .519.

He definitely has the stuff to close. At times, it’s downright filthy (hence my continued efforts to call the North Carolina native “Dirty South”). Holland strikes batters out, he was more efficient with his pitches in 2011 than after his 2010 debut, and reaching less three ball counts allowed him to avoid  walks.

The best stat to make his case as the closer is this one: Holland inherited 33 runners last year. Two scored.

So far this spring, he has seven strikeouts in 5.1 innings and no walks. He’s a favorite of the Twitter crowd to snag the closer’s role and with good reason. If the Royals take a progressive approach though, they may use him more like an old school fireman to relieve whenever a threat pops up. If he’s truly the Royals best reliever, his value is best realized in those moments that matter, and not a three run game that most other Royals relievers could close out.

Kelvin Herrera (9%): Herrera is often cited as having “closer stuff”, which is a simple way to say that he has an upper-90s fastball and strong secondary pitches. Against the Dodgers this spring, he struck out four in two innings, using his fastball, a curveball and his changeup to put batters away. With Soria’s injury, he’s more likely to make the team, whereas before he might have ended up in Omaha and been the first pitcher recalled. With many other options, Herrera isn’t likely to be put into the role, but if he pitches well and others struggle, he has his chance to succeed in the role.

The Field (1%): I suppose it’s possible that Louis Coleman or Blake Wood (assuming his elbow soreness isn’t an issue) could get a look if there are concerns or other issues that press them into service. Jeremy Jeffress has shown better control and still has the heat that made him one of the Brewers top prospects. These are longshots to close, but they’ll have a role in Kansas City’s bullpen throughout the year.

The Royals were fortunate to have the depth to handle the potential loss of Soria, so they don’t have to scramble to find someone to close. The arms are there and they can be utilized almost at will. Since most of the bullpen is so young, they have options and can be shuttled to and from Omaha if someone starts to slow from fatigue. Say Jeffress is pitching well in Omaha and Coleman has thrown more innings than were planned. The Royals can swap them out and get a less taxed arm up from the minors for a short stretch then swap them back out if they want to.

Lefties Everett Teaford, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares and Tommy Hottovy can eat up innings as well, depending on which ones make the team (Collins, at 1.50, has the worst ERA of the four, which is a great place to be if spring training stats translate to regular season performance somehow). One of Felipe Paulino or Luis Mendoza will probably be in the bullpen as a long reliever as well while the other is in the rotation.

Losing Soria isn’t the way the Royals would want to go, but they aren’t without options to fill his shoes. I would bet that Broxton will get the first look but if there are any struggles, Holland is the most likely long-term option to finish off games.

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We weren’t in the Man Cave, but we still got it together to have a full discussion on the Royalman Report.

It was a busy week for the Royals and we covered the Salvador Perez injury and his potential replacements after surgery. Alcides Escobar signed an extension and we covered the importance and the symbolic gesture behind it. We dug into the pitching staff, particularly the final two starting spots, the enigma that is Luis Mendoza and the overstocked bullpen.

We even tossed in a bit of Chiefs free agency talk.

Along with the discussion there are two interviews within this episode. First we talked with Jeff Montgomery about the coming season and other aspects of Royals broadcast team. After that, Michael Engel interviewed John Dewan, the author of The Fielding Bible and owner of Baseball Info Solutions. He offered insight into the methodology and significance of detailed defensive statistics.

Join us on March 24th as we have a full day of events scheduled at Kelly’s Westport Inn. From 2-6 pm we’ll hold a fantasy draft with a group of listeners. After that we’ll have a remote broadcast and from there we’ll help host the @TweetupKC crowd. More details about the event can be found here.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

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July 18, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Louis Coleman (46) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

These numbers just aren’t working out. It’s frustrating me because no matter how bad some of the Royals pitching staff has been, I’d like to keep the ones who have potential. So many of them have potential, but there’s simply not enough room.

Ned Yost has indicated that he would like to carry 12 pitchers and four bench players into the season. That means five starters and seven relievers, but however I slice it, a potentially valuable commodity gets left out. Actually, more than one.

It’s an unusual feeling for Royals fans, to feel like we have too much talent for one roster. I made a comment the other day on Twitter that the 2012 Omaha Storm Chaser bullpen might be the second best bullpen in baseball.

Here’s how it breaks down. I believe the five holdovers from last year’s starting rotation will win their jobs back; that leaves seven spots in the bullpen. Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, and Jose Mijares are all pretty much locked in. That leaves three spots for Aaron Crow (who Yost has indicated will stay in the bullpen if he can’t make the rotation), Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Luis Mendoza, Blake Wood, and Kelvin Herrera. The other candidates seemingly have no shot—and frankly, I don’t think Wood’s got much of a shot either.

Aaron Crow. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Six guys for three spots. Each guy brings something a little different to the table. Collins is another lefty. Crow has great strike out potential. Coleman’s a steady hand with good deception. Mendoza’s got versatility to throw multiple innings and start occasionally. Wood has the power sinker to get ground balls. And Herrera might have the best stuff of all of them. So, who gets left out? And more importantly, what are the ramifications of those decisions.

We have to assume at this point that Crow will get one of the remaining spots. Yost has essentially said as much. He was an All Star in the bullpen, and I think Yost doesn’t want to play with Crow’s confidence by sending him to AAA to work as a starter, which is what I think they should do. At some point, they will have to decide what they have in Crow and give him a chance to be that, whatever it is. If it’s a starter, they have to let him try to be a starter instead of shuffling him back and forth between roles.

Anyway, despite what one lowly, rotund blogger thinks, it looks like the Royals will give one of those bullpen spots to Crow. That leaves two. I’m pretty certain that Yost will want to carry more than one lefty in the pen. That means that as long as Collins isn’t terrible in the spring, he’ll get one of the spots. He was supposedly very effective in the intrasquad matchup, and people are raving about a mechanical adjustment that helped improved his command. We’ll see.

That leaves one spot for three talented pitchers … and Blake Wood (ZING!). Some are not as high on Mendoza as I am (if thinking a guy can excel in a swingman role is being “high” on him). I find value in a pitcher who can move between bullpen and rotation, throw some strikes, keep a team in a game, and who the team doesn’t have to worry about in terms of his future. The Royals can use Mendoza however they want. And he’s out of options, which along with his versatility, is the greatest point in his favor.

I have no answer for who gets the last spot. I don’t think it will be Wood or Herrera because Wood isn’t good enough and both have options. It comes down to Coleman or Mendoza. Coleman pitched very well last year. I like him a lot as a pitcher. But he can’t make a start if the Royals need him to, and he probably can’t take over in the third inning and bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen with three or four innings of work.

On the flip side, Mendoza isn’t as proven as Coleman. Michael Engel wrote a very scathing critique of Mendoza that pointed out his greatest flaw: he doesn’t strike out many hitters. Consequently, his numbers from AAA look a little deceiving. Coleman, on the other hand does strike guys out.

Ultimately, performance in the spring might decide this conundrum. But if all considered pitch well enough, the Royals have to ask themselves some tough questions. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, who fills the long relief role? It could be no one, but that might wear out the bullpen quickly. It could be Crow. But he’s never filled that role before, and they have his future to consider.  Also, he spent the last half-season being pretty ineffective. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, they probably lose Mendoza to the waiver wire.

If they choose Mendoza, they will gamble that he can sustain his performance from last season without the benefit of high strike out numbers.* It’s a pretty risky gamble, made slightly better by the Royals’ good defense. Note please that one of the criticisms of Mendoza is that he won’t be able to maintain his low BABIP from 2011, .268. By contrast, Coleman’s was .246. In fact, looking a little closer at the numbers makes Coleman’s season from last year look a little less shiny (4.30 FIP, 3.92 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9), just like Mendoza.

*I wrote this before Sunday’s game in which Mendoza and Herrera pitched very well.

I’m so torn about this decision, and I don’t even have to make it. Luckily, spring performance should help decide. But I’m going to do the ballsy thing and give my thoughts right now, before seeing a pitch.* If I had the choice to make, and I had to make it right now, I’m taking Mendoza. I think having someone to fill the swingman role is important with such a suspect rotation, and keeping Mendoza gives the Royals the chance to have both pitchers if they need them moving forward—say if Broxton gets traded midseason or someone gets hurt. If Mendoza is ineffective, they can cut him and bring Coleman up without too much damage being done.

*Again, I wrote this before Sunday’s game. Though it wasn’t on television so technically I still haven’t seen a pitch.

Feel free to openly criticize that decision and let me know who you would keep and why.

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Or follow me on Twitter @MarcusMeade

Keep Your Eyes on Johnny Giavotella (Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One morning last week, as I slipped out of my hotel room and found my USA Today waiting for me, I noticed the headline “50 Names to Keep an Eye on for 2012″. Of course, like any fan, I wanted to see how many of my guys were on that list. Especially since this is what Royals fans are hedging the future of the franchise on – guys to keep an eye on.

#1 on the list is Yu Darvish of the Rangers, who has been a dominant pitcher for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. He was 18-6 last year with a 1.44 ERA and a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 276 – 36. Everyone will be watching to see if the talent follows the hype across the Pacific Ocean.

I was happy to find four of our guys on the list, good for second-most next to Oakland. You know that the A’s are always going to be at or near the top of a list like this, but recently, the Royals have been as well. The A’s have five on the list, including Brad Peacock, who was 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 3 starts for Washington last season. The Mariners also have four prospects on the list (the Royals top them in aggregate score, 98-93) including Catcher Jesus Montero, who the Yankees traded away. Odds are that Montero will DH for the M’s in 2012 after slugging .590 in limited action last season.

All in all, 14 clubs have multiple players on the list, and a total of 26 teams are represented with at least one player to keep an eye on. The Phillies, Tigers, Twins, Mets, and Yankees were shut out. Apparently, they won’t have to keep an eye out for anyone in the state of New York this year. Also, this would appear to be good for Royals fans, having two other AL Central teams with little coming down the pipeline. It can be a bit misleading though, because the Tigers have experience and aren’t banking on prospects for their title run.

As for the Royals on the list?

-#12. 2B Johnny Giavotella, 24: “He’s a solid defender, but he’ll succeed because of his offense. He hits. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out. And he might have the most energy among the three infielders promoted last year.”
Giavotella was the Royals’ Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2011, despite his August call-up and 46 games in KC. His walk to strikeout ratio was impressive in Omaha (40 BB/57 K), but he’ll need to improve upon that at the big league level, as he walked just 6 times compared to 32 strikeouts.

-#14. C Salvador Perez, 21: “Even if he doesn’t repeat the hitting as the starter this year, he’s a strong defender. His success could depend on whether major league pitchers exploit his reluctance to walk.”
Perez surprised everyone by hitting as well as he did during his time in Kansas City last year. He’ll have to be ready to make some serious adjustments and be ready for what American League pitching coaches have been cooking up for him over the winter. When they speak of Perez’s reluctance to walk, he showed that more in Arkansas and Omaha than in Kansas City. He walked just 16 times in the minors last year, and drew 7 walks in a third of the time while in KC.

-#32. OF Lorenzo Cain, 25: “He was the one who was left behind last year as Kansas City moved its collection of prospects into the majors”
We know that Cain was “left behind” only because the Royals were stacked in the Outfield in 2011. I’m sure that at the beginning of the year, he was on Dayton’s list along with the guys who did make it to the show. Nobody could have predicted any or all three of last year’s starters’ success, which kept Cain out of Kansas City for all but just 6 games. With Melky Cabrera gone, the path is clear for Cain to shine in Kansas City. As the starter going into spring training, he’ll need to prove that he’s worthy before the Royals break camp.

-#48. RHP Kelvin Herrera, 22: “The Kansas City bullpen is full of young talent, but hard-throwing Herrera is among those with the best chance of eventually taking over for closer Joakim Soria.”
While in the minors last year, Herrera spent time in A, AA, & AAA uniforms. He pitched in 45 games and racked up 70 strikeouts in 67 2/3 Innings. He made his big league debut on September 21st and earned a Loss. He gave up 3 Runs in his inning of work. He was better four days later, but in a total of 2 innings for the Royals last year, he did not strike out one batter. In order for him to be successful, he’s going to have to figure out what worked for him in the minors and make that happen against big league hitting. The Royals need Herrera to be reliable if there’s any chance of seeing him as a closer in the future.

(#49 on the list is Bryce Harper…)

Now, I know that lists are sometimes lists for lists sake. It’s almost impossible for someone to sit down & come up with a list like this. Like coming up with the “Top 50 songs of all time” or the “Top 10 Steak Restaurants in America”, it’s simply a conversation starter. There’s no way to truly measure it. Nobody will scrutinize this list at the end of the season and hold its author responsible. Know this though – we will surely be watching these guys (and many others) in Kansas City. Now, maybe others will as well. The bottom line is that if we’re all watching, these guys need to show us something.

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Expect to keep seeing this quite a bit in 2012. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m going to repeat this once more (and for the last time), so if you’ve seen it before, skip ahead. Dayton Moore and the Royals have been busy this offseason. Not busy looking for starting pitchers and not busy looking for new bats. They’ve been busy finding the pieces to finish up their killer bullpen.

But really, there weren’t a lot of moves to be made. The Royals bullpen only increased by two members, as Jonathan Broxton became the new, well, whatever role he’ll supposedly fill and Jose Mijares became lefty insurance. There were lots of rumors about using the Broxton addition to move Joakim Soria and leave Greg Holland to closing, but that’s all in the past. Right now, we’re barely different than last year’s team. Let’s just get a quick recap of where that team stood in several categories with regards to the rest of the American League:

Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th (4.70)
Wins in Relief: 3rd (26)
Losses in Relief: 13th (26)
Save Percentage: 10th (63%)
Holds: 10th (58)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 2nd (25%)
Games Pitched on Zero Days Rest: 2nd lowest (56)
Average Outs Recorded Per Outing: 1st (3.6)

If you have any questions about those rankings, throw them out in the comments. All I know is this paints a very muddled picture. Was the bullpen good or bad? Was it good or bad as a result of how rough the rotation was? Can we really blame the bullpen when they had quite a bit of work over the course of the year due to that rotation?

What it seems like to me is that they did a respectable job with the hand they were dealt. Manager Ned Yost didn’t overwork them too badly, though the consecutive days stat could be biased a bit toward one or two pitchers. I had no idea that they had done so well with inherited runners, but the fact that they allowed that many runs, compiled that many losses, and blew that many saves makes me reconsider my acclaim at their success. Of course, as the season wore on, young arms got tired and handing the ball to the bullpen became less of a sure thing. Nonetheless, how can we think about this bullpen going into 2012? Are they truly killers?

Well, I pulled out three projection systems for 10 pitchers that could (or should) be a part of the 2012 bullpen. I’ll use ZiPS, Bill James, and RotoChamp to get three different perspectives. And I’ll try to show them in a way that’s not totally confusing, using their 2010 and 2011 lines alongside their projections to get an idea of what we’re seeing.

Let’s start with Joakim Soria because, well, who else do you start with when you think of the Royals’ bullpen?

For the most part, projections show a return to form from 2011 and more of what we expect from Soria. And I see no reason to debate that, as he’s shown us he can stick in there when healthy, so let’s leave it at that. Soria is a stable player for the bullpen.

We’ll turn to Jonathan Broxton next.

Broxton’s going to be an interesting one to watch. After being nails for the Dodgers earlier in his career, he started to falter the last couple, including a bruised elbow that sidelined him for most of 2011. Between that and the move to the AL, it’s hard to get a read on how he’ll perform. All signs point to him being healthy for 2012 and ready to pitch for the Royals, however. And all three projection systems show that in their analysis. While they’re more bullish on Broxton than I am (or than I expected them to be), I think we can expect solid numbers from Broxton. And if he can pitch consistently throughout the season, he could be a crucial piece for close games in late innings.

Greg Holland

Everyone expects a little regression from Holland’s ridiculously good 2011 campaign. His BABIP last season was .250, which is plenty low and offsets the 3.77 he found himself with in 2010. Settling at a midpoint seems like a good idea, and that’s what the projections have done. I expect Holland to sit closer to the RotoChamp projection than the others, however, even though their hits/9 is a little low. Holland will still be a crucial piece of the bullpen, but maybe not quite as amazing as he was last season. The battle between him, Coleman, and Broxton for the “set-up role” will be one that could go all season if Holland doesn’t end up replacing Soria as the closer should Soria get injured.*

*Knock on wood. Every piece of wood. Even Blake Wood.

Blake Wood

I’ll be honest and say that I have no idea what to expect from Wood. He was extremely frustrating to see pitch at times, but surprisingly productive at other times. And I guess that just means we should expect something similar to last year. Every projection system shows some amount of regression, but I’d expect Wood to sit around an ERA of 4 and to be neither great nor horrible, providing solid relief when you least expect it and poor relief when you need outs. This all leans on him making the roster, of course, but he should be a likely candidate unless he spoils it for himself in Spring Training.

Louis Coleman

Coleman was the guy that always made me think he was right there the whole time, just about ready to break free, but restrained by his high home run numbers. He still had an amazing season considering he missed almost a month of the season and will be another important piece of the bullpen in 2012. I would guess he can take a step forward on those home runs numbers while staying roughly constant in every other way. Bill James’ projection seems to be the closest for me, showing exactly that. With a step forward in the home run area for Coleman, the back four righties of the bullpen (Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman) should be a formidable set for opposing lineups to face as they try to rally.

Aaron Crow

For whatever reason, Bill James didn’t project Crow, but it doesn’t matter. I see Crow regressing a bit, sticking closer to his late-season numbers than his initial ones, but he can still be an important part of the bullpen. We have some projection issues here, as RotoChamp saw Crow as a starter, but the numbers are similar nonetheless. I think the ZiPS projection is a bit bearish, but Crow should maintain his strikeouts and potentially his walks as well, staying roughly in the same point as he was last year. Like Coleman, if Crow can cut his home run numbers a bit, he’ll make it into that upper tier of relievers. But he’ll still be a useful arm nonetheless. And if they’re thinking about trying him as a starter, he could become a middle relief sort of guy, as Wood might be the only other useful righty candidate for such a role. The prognosis? Still useful, but maybe less of the early Crow and more of the later Crow.

Kelvin Herrera

I’m really intrigued by Herrera’s chances, as he could either go the Jeremy Jeffress route or he could stick as another strong righty reliever. If you’re counting at home, that would mean the Royals would have seven average-to-great righty relievers in their bullpen, so I don’t know if we can count on them all making it. But Herrera has shown strong numbers in the minors, flashing a 1.60 ERA in 2011 across high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a September call-up to Kansas City. He usually strikes out about 9/9 IP, and while that should continue this year, I expect closer to 8/9 IP. Like Wood, Herrera’s case probably hinges on his Spring Training performance, but his existence alone exhibits why the Royals have a good reason to rely on their deep, deep bullpen.

And on to the lefties.

Tim Collins

Collins will be another interesting one, as he seemed to be fatigued by the time the season ended. He pitched in 68 games, eight more than Soria and 11 more than Crow, which likely contributed to that fatigue. And Yost seemed to be content with (over)using Collins no matter his fatigue. Collins has some legitimate competition in Jose Mijares this Spring Training, with Everett Teaford also available, so the team won’t have to rely on him quite as much. Still, more competition is better than less, and Collins will at least have to perform or be sent down, hopefully keeping the bullpen stocked with a capable left-handed reliever.

Jose Mijares

Mijares is a guy that I vouched for when the Royals signed him. It’s definitely good to try many options, and, as I said above, it gives a bit of insurance and competition for Collins. Mijares was a great reliever for the Twins a few years back, but his weight and other issues led to less use and less productivity as the seasons wore on until Minnesota dropped him this offseason. It’s a good flyer to take on a guy that could be a huge boost should he return to form. And if he doesn’t do that, no harm, no foul. Collins and Teaford, plus Mike Montgomery or other lefty prospects, could fill that role.

Everett Teaford

Teaford’s another guy that got some partial projections as a starter, but he should only exist as a spot starter and mostly as a lefty reliever option. He’ll also have to fight his way onto the roster, and he’s probably less likely to make the roster than Collins and maybe Mijares. I think Teaford was a bit lucky last season, but he’s got the ability to put in about what Bill James’ projection shows when the Royals need him. It’s just another sign of the depth this season.

What we can really take from this, as I’ve said before, is that the Royals have considerably more depth and insurance in their bullpen for 2012 than they did going into 2011. There are more players than can ably contribute when needed, and that should make it easier to keep the bullpen performing all year. As some prospects move forward, there should only be more options, allowing for extreme selectivity going forward. Even though Broxton’s contract is only a year, this all points to the team being prepared for a great bullpen for many, many years as they approach the start of their window of competition.

So, while the bullpen was a great point of strength in 2011, it should be as strong or stronger in 2012 given the number of options and the players’ performance in previous seasons. The projection systems are understandably mixed, but even with some of their lower projections, the bullpen will be solid for this season. Considering how they ranked in some categories last season, there’s room for improvement. And there should be improvement.

Of course, the wild card in all of this is new pitching coach Dave Eiland. He may change the pitching strategies of some younger players, and we’ll have to keep track of any changes in performance or style from 2011 to 2012. Just another thing to keep in mind.

Has Moore built a “killer bullpen” for 2012? Well, yes and no. He didn’t add much to build that bullpen. But it also didn’t need a ton of additions to become a killer. Broxton and Mijares should only add depth in two areas where competition and number of options will only help the team to stay in it throughout 2012. And with a rotation that’s questionable and difficult to project, having a strong bullpen with many potential members can only be a good thing.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

Kelvin Herrera hopes that a strong offseason results in major league time. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

The Caribbean Series ended on Tuesday, wrapping up most of the Royals involvement in offseason leagues (catcher Kevin David, a 19th round pick in 2010 is playing for Melbourne in the Australian Baseball League Championship Series that starts on Friday). With spring training coming up, players are gearing up for a trip to Surprise and getting in work with the rest of their team.

Some of those players are going to be looking to build on their offseason performances and move up the ladder.

Wil Myers rebounded from his first season of Double A ball with 31 hits in 86 at bats in the Arizona Fall League. Over the 23 games, he produced a 1.167 OPS, walked more than he struck out and added 14 extra base hits. He shook off a lot of questions about the knee injury (and infection) that slowed him at Northwest Arkansas and the 21-year-old got his first invite to big league camp. Brian Poldberg told Paul  Nielsen of NWAOnline.com that he thinks Myers will get a chance at Triple A.

Mario Lisson could be headed to Omaha as well. The 27-year-old third baseman hit .293/.372/.527 for the Naturals, then kept hitting in the Venezuelan League, hitting 11 homers in 50 games with an OPS of .877.

Anthony Seratelli can play multiple positions (he’s one of those “played everywhere but catcher and pitcher kinda guys) and was an organizational All-Star in the Royals system according to MILB.com. After a solid year in Northwest Arkansas, Seratelli had an even better time in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .317/.426/.429. When he’s not playing all over the field, he also produces a weekly video as a hobby. He also received the Royals Willie Wilson Award last month as baserunner of the year.

On the mound, Kelvin Herrera, who went from A ball to the majors last year, continued the momentum, throwing 17.1 innings, striking out 15 and walking just one while compiling a 0.51 ERA. He has a strong chance to break camp in the Royals bullpen.

Francisely Bueno had a 1.90 ERA in 42.2 innings, which was good enough to get him an invite to big league camp. He’ll be 31 years old in March, so he’s hoping to get a shot as bullpen depth after a strong showing in the Dominican League.

It’s worth noting that in 48.2 innings, Manauris Baez had a 1.66 ERA, but he also walked 25 batters during Dominican League play. When the Royals signed him, they converted him from an everyday player to a pitcher, so at 25 years old now, he’s working his way up the ranks. He’s pitched as high as Triple A and may start there or see time there again this year.

Antonio Cruz, one of the players the Royals received from Detroit for Wilson Betemit, only threw 2.2 innings, but did so over seven games, recording five strikeouts.

Everett Teaford, who’ll compete for a spot on the Royals pitching staff this spring, had a 29 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio in the Dominican League in 23 innings. He’s also one of the better Royals players to follow on Twitter at @teaparty61.

Most of these players will serve the purpose of minor league depth and will need a few things to break their way to get into the big leagues, but some, like Teaford and Herrera, certainly didn’t hurt their odds of starting the year in Kansas City. Myers was one of the better players in Arizona during Fall League play, which is a great sign for the organization.

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His most recent feature covers Kelvin Herrera.

Herrera was under the radar for many. While he was ranked among the Royals top 30 prospects before the season by Baseball America, his history of injuries made him more of an honorable mention. So how did he do in the face of such skepticism? He did something very few players ever do – he skipped through four levels of professional baseball in a year.

Starting with High A Wilmington, Herrera dominated, showing great control and strong strikeout numbers. He was selected as a Texas League All-Star and played in the All-Star Futures Game in July. He maintained his performance in Triple A and earned two appearances at the big league level in September.

Check out Nathaniel’s piece on Herrera over at Seedlings to Stars and join in the conversation:

Clipped from: seedlingstostars.com (share this clip)

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On Thursday, Baseball America named its top 20 Texas League prospects.

Like last year, the Royals are well-represented. At this time in 2010, the Northwest Arkansas Naturals were celebrating a Texas League championship en route to being named BA’s Team of the Year after Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Clint Robinson, Mike Montgomery and others contributed to the championship run.

This year, it’s a bit different, as none of the above players spent a minute in the Texas League. Still, the Royals landed five names on the list.

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Problem: Kansas City needed to clear a spot on the 40 man roster to add Herrera.  On Wednesday, they made the decision to designate Kila Ka’aihue for assignment, giving them 10 days to trade or release him.

Thus ends a long and winding quest full of high expectations, internet campaigns, pre-season buzz and, ultimately, disappointment.

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The point is that September is full of hope. At the start of the month, there are another 25-30 games to play. Teams can manage to climb ten games in the standings with a hot streak and their opponents’ corresponding cold streaks. With the introduction of new call-ups from the minors, the balance changes slightly. The fresh blood mixes up the standard game plan for teams and the new variety (and hope) create a fresh experience for fans.

Kansas City is, of course, right in the middle of this influx of new blood.

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Giavotella, who has since been promoted to the majors to play second base everyday, hit .338/.390/.481 in Omaha and had a combined 90 base hits in June and July.  He’s since hit .245/.278/.387 in his first month of the big leagues.

Herrera started the season in Wilmington in High A and quickly earned a promotion to Northwest Arkansas where he was named a Texas League All-Star and played in the All-Star Futures Game.  Through 65.2 innings this year, he has a 70/14 K/BB ratio and has beat hitters with a combination of triple digit heat and solid secondary pitches.  He’s got a chance to be a September call up if Omaha is knocked out of the PCL playoffs early and if the Royals want an early look at him in the big leagues.

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Salvador Perez, the prospective catcher of the future, has made it to Triple A at the ripe age of 21 years old.  Perez, considered an elite defensive talent, threw out 43 of 90 potential base stealers in Northwest Arkansas in 2011.  He has a career 43% success rate in the minors in limited would-be thieves.

Kelvin Herrera, who was in the All-Star Futures game at the All-Star Break, has a 52/8 K/BB ratio in 50.2 innings pitched out of the bullpen.

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One night after Luis Mendoza threw a no-hitter* for Omaha in Memphis, the Northwest Arkansas Naturals joined the party.

*After the no-hitter, the official scorer reversed his decision to charge David Lough with an error, then re-reversed it to credit Mendoza with the feat.  Now, the Memphis coaching staff is appealing the ruling.  For a while, Mendoza still had credit for his second career Triple A no-hitter.  However the PCL responded to an appeal by Memphis by ruling the play a hit and taking away Mendoza’s no-hitter. 

Will Smith threw seven hitless innings and walked just two while Kelvin Herrera pitched two perfect innings to preserve a 1-0 win.  The Naturals faced the minimum 27 batters in the game, thanks to a sixth-inning triple play after Smith allowed the only baserunners of the game.

Smith was acquired last July along with Sean O’Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo.  He had a 2.80 ERA in 54.2innings for Wilmington last season and pitched in the Texas League playoffs with the Naturals.  He had a 4.20 ERA over 100.2 innings before tonight.

Herrera is having a superb season.  He played in the All-Star Futures Game last weekend and had a 2.03 ERA in 31 innings.  He has a 37/3 K/BB ratio in Double A.

Kane County threw a combined no-hitter on May 18th when Sugar Ray Marimon and Chas Byrne combined in the achievement.

Wilmington, it’s your turn…

Hello again! For the last month I’ve been standing on the banks of Lake Kauffman. From time to time I’ve dipped my toes in the water but have been unable to take the plunge and publish my first article here since November 11th of last year. Now, things have changed.

As you have read, Jeff Herr has moved on to head up our network’s KU coverage over on Through the Phog. His departure leaves a gap in the minor league coverage on this site, but if you’re a long time reader of Kings of Kauffman you may remember my days as this site’s lead. You may also remember that I spent a lot of time writing about prospects and the draft. Since leaving KoK, my nomadic writing tendencies have taken me to several sites, but at all of my stops I’ve tried to work in coverage of the minor leagues as it has always been a facet of the game that I love to follow and write about.

With the launch of Seedlings to Stars just over a month ago, I’ve been able to hone my content focus more fully to minor league coverage. So when Jeff notified us that he was leaving KoK and S2S to take a lead position, it seemed natural that I pick up the baton and carry forward the weekly minor league feature here on this site. (more…)

Both started and Hosmer could have (should have in my opinion) been the MVP of the game, going 4-5.

Two more Royals, current Northwest Arkansas Naturals, will be playing in this year’s game in Arizona: outfielder Wil Myers and reliever Kelvin Herrera.

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Rankings:
~ Baseball America #12
~ Royals Prospects: #18
~ Royals Review #14
~ Kevin Goldstein: #13
~ John Sickels #27 C+

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One of the films they would show with regularity was Pollyanna starring Hayley Mills (later of The Parent Trap and Saved By The Bell fame). If you don’t know the story, it goes like this: Pollyanna moves to an embittered town after becoming orphaned. Her aunt is a spinster, and the town is full of general grumpiness and discontent. Until Pollyanna comes along. She refuses to see anything in a negative light, always looking for the bright side. Why, she even makes Rany look like a Grinch. One of her favorite techniques was to play “The Glad Game” – coming up with anything and everything that made her glad.

Well, the Royals are 11-17, they’ve only won one series all year. They just came out of a series at Tampa where they scored only 8 runs. Their pitchers have walked more than any other team. The bullpen has fallen apart multiple times.

I think we could use some Gladness in Kansas City.  Here’s what I’m glad about:
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