The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

That being said, at the time of the demotion, there were essentially four candidates elligible for the 5th spot in the rotation. Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, and Yordano Ventura are all getting a good look. Granted, most individuals think it would be a long shot for Ventura to jump the other three to get the spot. I think the same goes for Will Smith, though he’s looked good in limited time this spring. That means that the two frontrunners for the position were and are Chen and Mendoza.

And Chen may have very well played himself out of those talks on Saturday.

After a debacle of a 1st inning where Bruce gave up 3 home runs, including one to ex-Royal David Dejesus, Chen ended up throwing 92 pitches, giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs. In fact, Chen has given up 7 home runs and 12 earned runs in 13.2 innings.

Now the caveat of spring training stats is exactly that….it’s spring training. But it’s not like Chen has a proven track record to look at over the last few season to give us assurance.

So why should he get the 5-spot instead of Luis Mendoza? Mendoza had a decent second half last year and (knock on wood) couldn’t be any worse than Chen.

It speaks to the difference in this year that we can have a discussion over whether Chen or Mendoza should be our 5th starter. In all honesty, I’m not TOO concerned about who’s taking the bump in that spot. (As long as it won’t be Hochevar)

So what do you think? Has Chen played his way out of a rotation spot? Or do you think his most recent outing won’t matter?

Highlight #1

Our tour guide took us up to the Hyvee level seating so we could look out on the field. It was a little strange to see part of it covered in snow, but it was good to be home nonetheless. Our tour guide gave us some time to enjoy the view and then told us that many different people have asked her what the weirdest thing she’s ever seen as she’s given  various tour. Eventually, she just started telling every tour the story.

Apparently, as she led one group up to the Hyvee level one day, she looked down and saw a deer out in center field.. After she got over her initial shock, she saw that it was one of those deer targets hunters use to practice. Ned Yost was down the right field with his bow shooting arrows out towards center.

We all laughed at this dubiously and asked if she was kidding. She shrugged and said, “I guess if you’re Ned Yost, you can do whatever you want on the field.”

Highlight #2

We got go down and check out the executive board rooms you can “rent” out or whatever. It got me to thinking how awesome it would be to have a board meeting at the “K.” Then I thought about how much work I’d actually get done if the corporation I worked for set up a meeting during a Royals game. None. No work would get done. No work at all.

Highlight #3

A great story our guide told us was that she couldn’t allow us into the indoor batting cage because apparently, one tour guide took his group in there and let them essentially just take whatever they want. Soooooo they don’t let tours in there anymore.

Highlight #4

The whole tour was awesome, but the point I was looking forward to the whole time was when we got to hang out in the dugout. I know it probably sounds juvenile, but sitting in the dugout was one of the best things I’ve gotten to do in a long time. You follow the team closely, live and die with each win or loss, and, if you’re lucky, you get to rant about something once a week for a blog covering your squad.

And then you get to sit in the same dugout as the players you write about and you have to hold in your 9-year-old inner SQUEEEEEE.

I held it in, but had an unforgettable time nonetheless. It’s nice to see Kauffman in a new light. The old girl looked pretty good.

Baseball will be back so very soon.

As such, it got me to thinking about a recurring thought I seem to have as each new season approaches. Baseball is one of the best sports to watch live.

People may scoff and say, “Well, you’re a baseball fan, so that’s not really much of a statement to make.” But I went to several different sporting events in the past year, and I still feel that this statement holds true.

I’m a Kansas City Chiefs fan, painful as that may be, and this year I went to the game between between the Chiefs and eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. It wasn’t a bad game. In fact, it was one that I thought the Chiefs should have won.* But as I walked back towards my car, I didn’t find myself necessarily glad that I’d come to the game as opposed to watching it on T.V. Of course, there is something to be said for the experience of seeing a football game live, but even if the Chiefs had won, I think I would have enjoyed it in the comfort of my own home just as much.

The one sport I played in high school was basketball, and this probably ranks highest in my “almost better when it’s live” countdown. I went to a few Mizzou games last year and, while I enjoy watching it live, it’s still not as good as baseball. I enjoy the atmosphere of a basketball game, especially one that comes down to the last minute. However, I still can’t say that I’d rather spend money to buy a ticket for a game on the court as opposed to a game on the diamond.

The only other sport I’ve experienced live this year is one that is starting to grow near and dear to my heart. I wasn’t a huge hockey fan until I started going to Missouri State club hockey games after I started college in Southern Missouri a few years ago. For four dollars, I was able to purchase a student ticket that allowed me to stand right up behind the boards and shout at the players as they crush each other. There’s nothing like a hockey puck flying at your face and causing you to recoil, only to have it smack against the glass, making you sigh in relief. Also, hockey has fights and fights are cool.

I don’t know why I like watching a live baseball game so much. There’s something about the pacing. Some people get annoyed but what they consider a “slow sport,” but I think the breaks give you time to tune in to everything that’s happening on the field. I emotionally flourish and perish much more based on how a Royals game is going in comparison to any other sports I watch.

So that’s why the next few days can’t pass any quicker for me.

The Royals are spending more on payroll this year. A lack of willingness to shell out the cash is typically a mainstay complaint for most Royals fans. They move from just under 61 million dollars (27th out of 30 MLB teams) in 2012 to app. 78 million dollars (20th out of 30 MLB teams).

Many people will look at this as a step in the right direction for the Royals as they’re shelling out more money than they ever have before. In fact, as the above Yahoo article states, the Royals were the #5 overall team in positive payroll percent change at +28.04%.

However, if you look back at the Royals payroll ranking in the past 5 years before 2012, you may find that the jump is not very awe-inspiring.

2011: 30th in the MLB (36,126,400)

2010: 20th in the MLB (72,267,710)

2009: 21st in the MLB (70,908,333)

2008: 24th in the MLB (58,245,500)

2007: 22nd in the MLB (67,116,500)

So while many less-informed fans may be excited about more money being spent than ever before, it once again comes down to one thing:

Allocation, allocation, allocation.

Seriously. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that spending money pales in comparison to spending money wisely. And yet, when I and other Royals fans I’m familiar with complain about the way the club spends money, I continually get the same response.

“Well, at least they’re finally spending money.”

No, you idiot. That doesn’t guarantee you a winner.

Okay, I’m not naive enough to believe that JUST spending a crapload of money doesn’t always get you very far in professional sports. But wasting money makes me even angrier than not having any to spend. That’s why, to me, paying over 4 million dollars to Luke Hochevar is a waste. That’s why I can’t figure out the Miguel Tejada contract.

You can tell me it’s good that the Royals are spending a little more money and I will agree with you, but it’s hard to fully back Dayton Moore on some of the ways he chooses to spend that money.

I’m not saying that being the Royals’ G.M. is an easy job. I’m sure it’s more difficult than I can even imagine, but without a legitimate explanation for moves like these, I continue to be wary.

Spring Training starts in a month and there are a lot of hopes riding on this season. I’m just not sure how these recent moves have helped the team.

On a last note, The Los Angeles Dodgers’ estimated 2013 payroll is increased 123.9% from their 2012 payroll. That figure is mind-boggling to me. The combined payrolls of all 30 MLB teams this season will surpass 3 billion dollars.

That is insane.

*I’ve forgotten the exact amount of days. It’s written on the board in my classroom.

This means that in just over a month, I will be able to watch the Royals play again and despite all the oft-questioned moves of Dayton Moore in the last month, I’m very excited to watch this new team. I’m also very aware that the whole thing could blow up in my face, but nonetheless, I’m excited. I can’t help it.

This is causing me to come to two very important realizations for the coming year.

• I’m becoming more and more confident that Jeff Francoeur is going to be our everyday right-fielder this year. I’d much rather there be some sort of platooning option, much like the Dyson-esque idea put out there on the site a few days ago. I don’t know that Dyson will ever establish himself as a serious contender for consistent MLB time, but at this point I don’t think Francoeur should be garner a starter’s portion of at-bats. Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more an inability to find some way to cut ties with Frenchy’s contract, means the Royals are going to play him consistently in right.
• I’m resolved to being disappointed about the production from the 2nd base, both offensively and defensively. I really don’t know why we signed Miguel Tejada, but I’m thinking that whether it’s Getz, Gio, or even the old man, there’s a lot more that could go worse at that position than positive.

Hmmmmmm

It’s easy to have high expectations going into a new baseball season. Everyone is on the same page. However, I feel like I’m going to treat this year’s team like I treat that movie everyone says is awful. I’ll go into it with severely low expectations and that way I can possibly end up pleasantly surprised. The same mentality goes towards the two aforementioned positions. I will not expect much production from either and if and when some modicrum of production appears, I will be pleasantly surprised.

40-ish days until baseball, People!

In 2011, Escobar hit: .254/.290/.343/.633. He also had 73 SO, 25 BB, stole 25 bases and was caught 9 times.

In 2012, Escobar hit: .293/.331/.390/.721. This was coupled with 100 SO, 27 BB and 35 stolen bases while being caught only 5 times.

I don’t consider myself a player-analysis guru. Far from it, in fact. I originally thought that Escobar’s improvement must have come from a increased amount of patience at the plate. However, I don’t know that that’s true. Escobar only walked 2 more times in 2012. I generally look and see if there was a significant change on the kinds of counts a player swung on throughout the season.

Alcides’ “first-pitch swinging” percentage went up from 24% in 2011 to 25% in 2012. His “swinging-strike percentage” went up as well from 12% to 14%. I don’t know if these are stats that are big factors or what the league average of such statistics is, but I expected to see significant change in these advanced statistics and others, and I”m not seeing much of a bump.

One reason for the uptick in production probably has something to do with Alcides’ somewhat inflated BABIP of .344. The traditional idea is that a BABIP should average out around .300. Escobar’s BABIP from 2011 was .285, so, if you believe in sabermetrics, it’s reasonable to imagine that Esky’s production should be expected to fall somewhere near the median of the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Even if that’s so, and Escobar hits somewhere in the “.270″ area, his ability to steal bases has shown growth and that makes him even more of a danger. Stealing 10 more bases in 2012 while getting caught 4 FEWER times is nothing to sniff at.

Escobar has shown an increased ability to steal bases. Or Yost just sent him more in 2012. You make the call. (John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

In my opinion, Escobar’s ability to swing the lumber and become an offensive threat is merely gravy upon the meat and potatoes of my estimation of him as a player.

Escobar has great range and is capable of making highlight-reel plays. He is, in my opinion, one of the best defensive shortstops in the A.L., if not baseball. He made a few more errors in 2012 than he did in 2011, but his incredible ability to get to the baseball makes up for that slight bump.

And if he is somehow able to maintain this sudden outburst of offensive prowess?

It’s gravy, Baby. Gravy.

Oct 1, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Before this year there was only one season in team history where a pitcher tossed 185+ innings with an ERA+ below 85. One season from 1969-2011, and that was Larry Gura, in 1983 (200.1 IP, 83 ERA+). Now there are three. Bruce Chen (191.2, 81) and Luke Hochevar(185.1, 71) are now card carrying members of this club. Overall, Chen was actually just the third 35 year old left-hander since 1901 to have such a season. Gura and Hall of Famer Rube Marquard (198, 78 in 1922) are the other two. While Gura was even worse at 36 years old (77 ERA+) Marquard was much better, posting a 106 ERA+ in 1923. I’m still not a fan of Chen’s but I think his SO/BB numbers suggest he’s legitimate bounce back candidate (as in bounce back to league average).

Luis Mendoza exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations and pitched 166 innings. He was better than Chen and Hochevar but was still below league average. This means that the Royals had three players pitch 162+ innings with ERA+’s less than 100. It’s not an uncommon occurrence overall, they’re the 17th team to accomplish this since 2002, but it had never happened before in Kansas City.

Mendoza performed better than I thought he would but I’m not going to be eating any crow. I maintained that he would be unsuccessful if he didn’t strike more people out. He also walked entirely too many hitters to thrive as a pitch to contact guy. Success came this year when his SO/9 went up and his BB/9 went down. Well maybe I’ll have a small slice since I didn’t think he had it in him to drastically improve his SO and BB rates. He did. Splitting his season in two shows the differences.

4/9 – 6/23: 60 IP, 4.5 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9, 4.95 ERA
6/29 – 10/3: 106 IP, 6.28 SO/9, 2.46 BB/9, 3.82 ERA

If Mendoza can carry those second set of numbers into 2013 he would slot nicely into the back end of the rotation. It’s somewhat similar to the song we sang with Hochevar last winter so there is reason for pessimism.

Innings often fail to tell the whole story because if a pitcher is bad enough he’ll be bounced from the rotation. We’ve seen this many, many times this century (Chris George, anyone?) So ignoring innings, and looking at games started, we find that for the second consecutive season the Royals had five pitchers start 10+ games and end the season below league average. Only the 2006 team had more. Will Smith and Jonathan Sanchez join Chen, Hochevar and Mendoza on this list. Those five pitchers accounted for 73% of the starts this year.

And that, my friends, is how you lose 90 games in a season.

The Royals Fell Flat as the Month of September Ended.(Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

Going into the last full month of the season, the Royals had some nice momentum and the phrase “.500″ was even starting to creep back into some people’s vocabulary. They had just swept the Detroit Tigers and put together their best month of the season. Any momentum was quickly halted with a disappointing doubleheader defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Twins on September 1st. They continued with their poor start to the month, losing 5 of their first 7 games. They also ended the month with a thud, losing 7 out of their last 8. However, sandwiched nicely in-between disappointing streaks was a pretty good stretch. They beat up on the first place White Sox and won 9 out of 14 through the middle of the month. They looked like a different team during that stretch, one that could beat anyone. However, towards the end of the month, the Royals seemed to be falling apart at the seams. An influx of injuries, mental mistakes, multiple errors, and mindless mishaps were all signs that pointed to a team that looked to be completely exhausted. Here’s a look at what happened in the Month of September…
I. Record/Standings
a. September Overall Record: 12-17 (.414)
Season Record: 71-88 (.447)
AL Central: 3rd (of 5)
American League: 10th (of 14)
Major League: 22nd (of 30)
b. September Home Record
7-9 (.438)
Season Home Record: 36-42 (.462)
c. September Road Record
5-8 (.385)
Season Road Record: 35-46 (.432)
d. September Streaks
Winning: 4 (9/19-9/22: White Sox, Indians)
Losing: 6 (9/23-9/28: Indians, Tigers, Indians)
Current: Lost 1
e. September Opponents
Twins: 3-3
Rangers: 1-3
White Sox: 4-2
Angels: 1-2
Indians: 3-3
Tigers: 0-4
II. Ned Yost Quote of the Month
9/12-after being “determined” to get Luke Hochevar his first win since July 31st. Hochevar gave up 5 ER in 5 IP, but the offense gave him a lead and the Royals ended up winning 10-5.
“He hasn’t won a game in his last seven starts and I wanted to get him over that hump,” Yost said. “He was working hard out there, maybe a little too hard, but he was trying with everything he had to get over that hump, too. I was bound and determined to give him every opportunity to do it. Part of my job is to get guys in a frame of mind so they can go out and compete and be successful. Sometimes you’ve got to let ‘em work through some things.”
III. High Point
Beating the Angels with Late Inning Power on 9/15
Zack Greinke took the mound to face his old team in his old stadium and kept the Royals in check for 8 1/3 innings. Jeremy Guthrie nearly matched him, pitching 8 full innings but giving up a single run in two separate innings. The Royals had scattered just 5 hits throughout the game, and things looked bleak. However, after a leadoff strikeout by Alcides Escobar in the 9th, Alex Gordon stroked a single and chased the former Cy Young Winner. Ernesto Frieri replaced Greinke and on the first pitch he threw, Billy Butler hit a long home run to the deepest part of the park. Just like that, it was a tie game. Salvador Perez came up next, and three pitches later, hit a walk-off home run to end the game. Like a skilled ninja, the Royals lured the Angels deep into their lair, then swiftly dispatched their opponent in dramatic fashion.
IV. Low Point
Getting swept in a four game series by the Tigers on 9/27
After playing tough against the first place White Sox, the Royals went to Detroit to take on another contender. I saw it as a chance to see how the Royals could stack up against the Tigers. Well, it turns out that they really didn’t. The Tigers won the first 3 games, then in the 4th, the Royals looked completely worthless. In the game, the Royals made 5 errors, including 3 by the usually slick-fielding Mike Moustakas. Doug Fister tied an American League record by striking out 9 Royals in a row. It was just embarrassing. The loss meant a rare 4-game sweep, and a 5-game losing streak for the Royals.
V. Surprises and Disappointments
1) Hosmer’s Forgettable Season.(Disappointment) Things just never really got going for our talented first baseman in 2012. His early struggles that everyone thought he’d be able to shake have refused to go away. Hosmer hit .179 during the month of September and ended the month, and maybe his season, by diving for a ball and partially tearing his rotator cuff. Here’s hoping that the disappointment of 2012 serves as motivation for him to work harder than he ever has during this offseason so he can try to redeem himself next year.
2) Going Streaking. (Surprise) During September, the Royals went streaking in both directions. While this might be fun to watch on a college campus, it can be frustrating as a baseball fan. The disappointment in this is that the losing streaks outweighed the winning. They had a losing streak of 6 in a row that came immediately on the heels of a 4-game winning streak. While the losing streak seemed long, it was still only half as long as their losing streak in April. They’ve got to find ways to not lose so many games in a row.
3) Picking Favorites. (Disappointment) I know it’s not over yet, but the Royals can be credited with giving the Detroit Tigers the AL Central crown. They played with a vengeance against the then-first place White Sox, and then rolled over against Detroit. It’s got to infuriate the White Sox, who have imploded over the past month or so. Losing to the Royals is never a good thing, but it’s something they’ll be thinking about all winter. Did the Royals decide that they wanted the Tigers to win the division? Maybe – I mean, wouldn’t you rather see the Tigers win than the White Sox?
4) No Walking. (Disappointment) The Royals drew just 59 walks for the month of September. That’s almost half the number of walks that the Yankees drew and the least in the Major Leagues. This contributed to the Royals having the 2nd worst OBP in the AL, better only than the Boston Red Sox. Going into Saturday’s win at Cleveland, the 5-game road trip had produced just 1 walk and 45 strikeouts. That must have been brought to their attention, because they drew 5 walks in that Saturday game.
VI. Transactions
1) 9/1: Recalled OF David Lough from AAA Omaha and C Manny Pina from AA Northwest Arkansas.
2) 9/4: Recalled RHP Jeremy Jeffress from AA Northwest Arkansas.
3) 9/14: Recalled OF Jason Bourgeois from AAA Omaha.
4) 9/16: Called Up RHP Jake Odorizzi from AAA Omaha. Recalled RHP Nathan Adcock, INF Irving Falu, C Adam Moore, and LHP Tommy Hottovy from AAA Omaha.

Billy Butler Continues to Mash in 2012. (Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

VII. Player of the Month
Billy Butler
Billy just continues to have a great season. He played in every game during the month of September, and hit .336 with 11 doubles and 24 RBI. Billy had 8 multi-hit games in September, including 5 games where he had 3 hits. His consistent bat hammered out streaks of 6, 10, and just ended another 10 game hitting streak. All in all, he hit in every one but three games during the month. He’s putting up numbers comparable to those that he put up in 2010, but with 30 more RBI and almost double the amount of Home Runs. He heads into the final homestand of the year hitting .312, slugging .511, and with 107 RBI. He has filled the team’s need for a full-time designated hitter, and is definitely one position that won’t be in question going into 2013. It will be nice to stand up and applaud Billy for his finest season this coming week.
Honorable Mention: Alex Gordon. Despite being moved out of his leadoff spot, Gordon has continued to hit – and field. While Alex’s average was down in September, he continued to hit doubles. He’s now got 51 on the season, which ties him with Butler in 2010 & is just 3 behind Hal McRae’s club record of 54. Gordon also gets kudos for drawing 11 walks in a month where it seemed like the Royals forgot how to do so.

The Results Were Usually Good When Kelvin Herrera Took the Ball in September. (Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

VIII. Pitcher of the Month
Kelvin Herrera
Herrera was the most opportunistic pitcher out of the Royals bullpen in September. He appeared in 14 games throughout the month, and the Royals won 8 of those games. Herrera walked away with a 3-1 record and a 1.84 ERA. He collected Saves in both opportunities on September 22nd & September 29th. In the latter, he got to come in and pitch the bottom of the 14th inning after the Royals were able to break the tie in the top of the inning. Herrera has been a solid Right-Handed arm for the Royals in 2012. His 2.38 ERA over 83 1/3 innings is impressive. Also impressive is his Walk to Strikeout ration of 21/75. In a month where the starting pitching wasn’t all that great, the bullpen has had to carry the weight. That’s something that isn’t solely a September issue, and we’ve got to give credit to the guys in the bullpen for helping out the starters all year. For Herrera, he earned his spot on 2013′s roster in September.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Guthrie. Despite only having a 1-0 record in 5 outings, the Royals won 4 of those games. He pitched at least 7 innings in four of those outings, and never gave up more than 4 earned runs. His ERA for the month was an impressive 2.25. He’s gotten better as the season has progressed & he’ll get one more start on Tuesday night.
IX. Compare to September 2011
The 2011 Royals came together to form their “team of the future” by the time September hit. As a result, they wowed Kansas City fans by playing well and having their best month of the entire season. At 15-10, they outscored their opponents by 29 runs. The month also included their longest winning streak of the season (7 games). The Royals lost their final home game of 2011 on September 21st before going on the road for the final 6 games of the year. They won 3 of those games before dropping the final 2 games of the season in Minnesota. The games in September were heavily weighted to AL Central opponents, and the Royals were 2-1 against division-winning Detroit. They were good against Chicago again, going 5-2 against the White Sox. They also went to the West Coast to play the Mariners and A’s, going 4-3.
Royals starters had a good month, with several guys compiling good records, good ERAs, good walk-to-strikeout ratios, yada, yada, yada. Joakim Soria (remember him?) had 4 saves, Greg Holland had 2. Offensively, Salvador Perez had arrived in full, and hit .375 with a .513 Slugging %. Mike Moustakas had figured things out, and hit .352 with 4 HR. Eric Hosmer hit .349 with 19 RBI. Even Jeff Francoeur was on fire, hitting .329 for the month and pounding 5 HR.
September 2011 saw just one call-up by the Royals, probably because everyone else was already in Kansas City. Kelvin Herrera took to the mound in the top of the 8th against the Tigers on September 21st. He promptly hit Ryan Raburn with the first pitch. He’d proceed to give up a double and a home run, allowing 3 runs in his 1 inning of work. He pitched just one other time 5 days later and would fare much better, not allowing a hit.
X. October Outlook
The Royals have just three games left, a final series at the K against the First Place Detroit Tigers. The Tigers dominated the Royals last week, sweeping a four game series. The two teams have swept each other in each of their last four series. We’ll see what everyone has left in the tank, and if they can top their win total from 2011. They currently sit at 71 wins on the season, which is exactly how many they won a year ago. With just one win against the Tigers, the organization can claim that “progress” is being made. If the Tigers can beat the Royals just once, they’ll win the AL Central, so they’ll definitely have something to play for.
During this final homestand, there’s really only one promotion left in October at the K: They’ll be handing out Early Bird Schedules and Team Photos at all three games.
XI. Summary
There are three games left in a season that began with such hope, such promise. A lot has happened in 2012, including having the nation’s eyes focused on our stadium for the All-Star Game. There have been many ups and downs as we’ve gone. There were signs of success and signs of strife, but we mostly saw signs of a young and inconsistent team. Hopefully, with another year of experience under their belt, they will come back stronger and more seasoned in 2013. For now though, they should focust on these remaining three games. We’ll see how Ned Yost is able to motivate them for this final homestand. I know that they don’t really have anything to play for, but I hope that pride still exists, and the guys will come out and give the home fans something to cheer for this week.

Adam Moore behind the plate in Omaha (Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas)

After being on the roster for twelve days, Adam Moore has caught only once and Manny Pina hasn’t played at all.

Adam Moore made quite an impact in his Royals debut. He was tabbed to catch Jake Odorizzi in his big league debut last Sunday. This was primarily because he’d been catching Jake in Omaha for a good chunk of the summer. After leading Odorizzi through three scoreless innings against the Indians, Moore stepped to the plate for his first Royals at-bat in the bottom of the third.

He promptly deposited the third pitch he saw over the Left Field wall.

He became just the fourth Royal ever to accomplish the feat in their first at-bat. He was the first to do it since Calvin Pickering back in 2004. We all know how his career panned out. I actually got to witness Pickering’s debut & can remember thinking that he was a monster who was going to hit a million home runs for the Royals. He ended up hitting eight.

That bomb last week was Moore’s first major league home run since September 7, 2010. In all fairness, it was his first major league at-bat since April 6, 2011.

He also walked, grounded out, and struck out to go 1-3 on the afternoon. Not a bad debut, but he hasn’t seen the field since. I’m of the opinion that if you call them up, you play them. At this point, we’ve seen enough of Salvador Perez to know that he’s a stud, and after missing the first part of the season with an injury, it might not be a bad idea to give the kid some rest. We also know everything we need to know about Bryan Pena. We know that he’s a servicable backup, but not much of a first baseman. Either way, if Pena, Pina, and Moore are going to compete to backup Salvy in 2013, this is a good chance to start the competition.

Manny Pina saw some time in Kansas City last summer. He caught four games in August and had 15 ABs. He had two hits (including a double) in his debut, and then went back to Omaha for the remainder of the season. After a knee injury in February of this year, he spent most of the season at AA Northwest Arkansas. He hit .260 with 5 HR. Before spring training, he was expected to compete for the backup job.

As far as Adam Moore goes, he caught for Odorizzi last week – will he catch for him again on Saturday? I sure hope so. I’m interested to see some more at-bats out of him so we can see if it’s worth trying to keep him around for next year. With just five games left in the season, it will be interesting who gets the starts behind the dish.

The Royals Celebrated 12 Wins over Division-Leading Chicago in 2012.(Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Not as a contender of course, but as the pesky underachievers who could spoil the party. Their play over the next 10 days will determine the winner of the American League Central Division.

To the Chicago White Sox fan’s relief, they and the Royals are done seeing each other for the season. The Royals beat up on the Sox again this year, going 12-6 against the self-proclaimed “Good Guys”. (The Royals were 11-7 against them in 2011) The Royals played a big part in Detroit’s run at the Division Title by winning these games, and by winning 4 of 6 against the Sox in September. Going into today, Chicago finds themselves at just 9-12 for the month, in the middle of a five-game losing streak, and clinging to a one-game lead in the Division.

Of the Royals’ remaining 10 games, seven of those will be against the team that has been chasing the White Sox for most of 2012 – the Detroit Tigers. This could either be good news or bad news for Tigers fans. Up to this point, the Tigers hold a 7-4 advantage over the Royals this season. However, in their most recent matchup, the Royals swept Detroit in a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. Before that, the Tigers were the ones doing the sweeping, winning their three-game series in Detroit back in July. All in all, the Tigers are 4-1 vs. the Royals at home and 3-3 at Kauffman.

It shapes up to be an advantage for Detroit, considering that the first four games are in Detroit, with tonight’s game being a make-up of a rainout on April 30th. Justin Verlander will face the Royals tonight, and if the rotation holds true, the Royals would not have to face him again. However, it’s likely that if Detroit’s playoff chances come down to needing a win on the final day of the season, they’d move the Cy Young winner up a day to face KC on October 3rd. Verlander on the hill does not mean an automatic win for the Tigers though – the last time he faced the Royals, he was roughed up about as bad as he ever has been. You know that will be on his mind when he takes the ball tonight.

While the Royals & Tigers are battling in Detroit, Chicago will be facing Cleveland for three at home, then will welcome in the Tampa Bay Rays for a four-game set. Chicago is a healthy 8-4 against Cleveland this year, and are 3-0 against Tampa Bay. With seven straight home games, they’ve got to like their odds. Advantage Chicago?

After this first four-game set between the Tigers and Royals, Detroit will travel to Minnesota for a three-game series. The Tigers are just 8-7 against Minnesota this year, but are 5-1 in the Twin Cities.

The final three games of the year will come down to Chicago at Cleveland and Detroit at Kansas City. Depending on what happens over the next week, the race could come down to these three games. Royals fans should treat this as our World Series. These will be games that Detroit will HAVE to win, so they’ll be all business. It will be great experience for the Royals to strap it on and go toe to toe with the Tigers to see how they match up. In a season of disappointment and underwhelming achievements, it will be good to see how our guys measure up against a team in the hunt for the playoffs.

Chicago definitely has the home field advantage going into this final stretch, getting to play 7 of 10 at home. Detroit is playing better baseball right now, but not by much. They’re just 10-11 in September and have lost 3 of 4. As a matter of fact, at 11-11, the Royals record for September is better than both contending teams. If they’re able to keep it up, Chicago will win the division.

As for the Royals, they’ll finish in third place, their best finish since 2003. That was also their last winning season. They won’t break the .500 mark again this year, but they will have a say in which team raises a banner as the 2012 AL Central Champions.

"We've Made the Big Time - Omaha!" (Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals should put all of their effort into making the Omaha Storm Chasers the most dominant Minor League Baseball team in History. Forget about the Royals. Let them be the doormat of the American League for the foreseeable future. Put forth zero effort into their success.

Now, I’m not ignorant. I know that the purpose of the minor league system is to develop future major league talent. However, it’s also to entertain. Within the Royals organization, Omaha is where our players perform best. Once they make it to Kansas City, something happens and they are all of a sudden not the player that we thought they were. What’s worse, if they are that good of a player, the Kansas City Royals are often considered the minor league team for MLB’s big spenders. Good players pack their bags and move on to better things. Mediocre players spend their careers being mediocre in Kansas City or driving back and forth to Omaha.

It’s a Jeckyl & Hyde situation for the Royals. In Omaha, they are world beaters. In Kansas City, they are beaten by the world. (See: Kila Ka’aihue)

So, my proposition is to turn things on their head and just try to win as many games in Omaha as possible. Even Ned Yost said earlier this week that they weren’t going to pull any players up to Kansas City until after the AAA Playoffs are over. “We don’t want to take away from their chances of winning.”

So why do we ever? Why don’t we beef up their roster instead? That way, the Royals could be a roster filled with experienced, underachieving, aging Major League players, and the Storm Chasers could be filled with our best and brightest talent. Make Omaha the goal, not Kansas City. Leave them there in AAA, let them win championships year after year, and pay them accordingly. It would take a change in philosophy, some understanding by all involved, but I think that it would ultimately be embraced by the fans and the players.

What you would avoid is the annual frustration that we experience here in Kansas City. Instead, in the Storm Chasers, you have a team that is currently plowing their way through the 2012 Season. They are the defending Pacific Coast League Champions. They’ve got the second-best record in the entire PCL and are just two games behind Sacramento for that mark. With just four games to go before the playoffs begin, they are 82-58. 24 games over .500 and Back to Back American Northern Division Champions.

That kind of success is unfathomable here in Kansas City. Instead, we’re questioning Jeff Francoeur’s existence, complaining about the price of parking, and counting the number of fans at the K each night. In Omaha, they’re playing in front of sell-out crowds in a new stadium, prepping for a “Blue Out” for the first two games of the playoffs, and headlining the All-PCL team. They’re finishing with their third straight winning record. Manager Mike Jirschele is in his 10th straight season at the helm. He’s secure in his job and surely would never want to manage the Royals. The players need to follow his lead.

And all of this success comes without their best stars from recent years.

I’m talking first of all about Moustakas and Hosmer. These are two guys who could do no wrong in Omaha. They have shown flashes of brilliance over just about two seasons in Kansas City, but it’s nothing compared to how good they were at AAA. So why not send them back? Think about how stacked that team would be with just those two guys added to the roster. Mike Moustakas hit .290 with a .531 slugging percentage in parts of two seasons in Omaha. In 107 games, he hit 25 HR & drove in 92 runs. With his improved defense over the past couple of seasons, he’d enable Wil Myers to go back to playing the outfield where he belongs. And, on that note, the stress & wondering that Myers is going through right now over when he’d be called up to KC would immediately dissipate. He would be right where he needed and wanted to be.

For Eric Hosmer, he played just 26 games in Omaha, but hit .439. He’s hitting .241 in Kansas City this year.

Keep going down the list. Guys like Salvador Perez and Billy Butler had great experiences in Omaha. Let’s get them back there so the Storm Chasers can dominate. What’s so great about keeping them in Kansas City? Their greatest hope is that they might be selected for an All-Star Game (one guy per year) or that they might be able to hit over .500. Wouldn’t playing for a Pacific Coast League Championship on a yearly basis be more exhilirating?

Ned Yost thinks so. He said earlier this week that, “winning a championship is probably a greater experience than coming up here and playing in the big leagues.”

I could not agree more.

Ignore for a second the needs of the starting rotation. However apparent the holes are with the current 5-man setup, and they are apparent, there are equal amounts of questions that are yet to be answered surrounding an organization that continues to employ a swing first, second, third, and ask questions later, offensive approach.  And because of that offensive strategy added to a base running philosophy akin to the little league team whose runner keeps circling the bases because he represents the last run allowed to score in the inning, no matter how good the starting pitching becomes it might still be overshadowed by an offense that works itself into outs in any way possible.

Despite being 6^th in all of baseball in batting average at .268, the Royals are just 22^nd in runs scored. Surely a lot of that run-scoring disparity is due to so many outs being recorded on the base paths, but it’s also in large part due to the team’s inability to reach base without putting a ball in play.

The Royals currently are 29^th in baseball in walks drawn with 302. Major League average at this point in the season is 367. The Royals are so bad at drawing walks that the same amount that separates them from the Los Angeles Angels at 24^th, is just four less than what separates the Angels from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 12^th.

The distance between the Royals and a slightly above average team in walks drawn is really inexplicable when you consider the easiest way for a small market team to compete is to avoid outs any way possible, with drawing walks being a central component of that, and they are once again one of the very worst at it in the game.

But because the Royals do hit for a high average as a team the offense is looked at as a strength. And positions of strength are usually where teams look towards to trade from when attempting to improve other areas. Well, the most attractive trade pieces currently on the Major League roster are most likely the only two that are most helping the team’s cause of non-out making: Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.

In one you have a great athlete that plays Gold Glove (however meaningful a Gold Glove is) level defense while accumulating 6.9 fWAR last year, and will knock on the door of 5 fWAR this year. In the other you have a 26-year-old that’s turning into one of the better hitters in baseball. Both are under contract and are inexpensive, and both would figure to bring back the most in return if flipped for talent elsewhere.

But would it be worth it?

There doesn’t figure to be much of a difference in the offensive lineup that’s currently being fielded from the one that will be written on the scorecard in 2013. And with rumors circulating more and more that it won’t be until May of next year before Wil Myers takes the place of Out King Jeff Francoeur, there really isn’t much of a reason to expect much of a difference in run scoring and walks drawn.

This is simply an organization that doesn’t value walks, and because of that, it will always be difficult for them to score runs.

However much of an impact it would make on the pitching staff to trade either Gordon or Butler, the net gain might not be worth it when coupled with the crippling loss it would be to the offense.

I advocated last week on the Royalman Report that the best strategy at this point would be to stand pat and hope some of the young pitchers take a step forward, while also seeing if some combination of Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, or even Joakim Soria can make an adjustment to the starting rotation. Would it be a gamble? Sure. But it’s one at this time the team can afford to make because the chance of any pitcher signing with Kansas City that’s distinguishably better than what is already in the rotation is slim.

The Royals are in need of a higher caliber starter than would be available for them in free agency, and possibly than would be better than available via trade. At this point, taking away from an offense that is already 40 runs below the American League average to make an insignificant upgrade over what is currently in the rotation, just wouldn’t be right.

There’s little chance any of the difference-making pitchers would sign with Kansas City. That’s just how it is. But unless there’s a real opportunity to sign one the next tier pitchers in free agency, there’s no sense in trading either Gordon or Butler for that guy.

The Good

Looking good, Billy Ray.

He’s been called overrated. He’s been called merely average. Some rather foggy-glassed fans have called him called a liability. What Billy Butler really is to the Kansas City Royals, is a remarkable rock of consistent and now, near elite level of production. (15^th in all of baseball in RC+) This season he’s no worse than the team’s second best hitter, and looking forward given the way things have gone this season, he would look to repeat that for at least the next few years.

As Butler’s power increases (homerun numbers anyway), his walk numbers would figure to do the same, even though they haven’t this season. And in a lineup and an organization that shows a complete disregard for outs of any manner on offense, having a batter that provides both categories in a lineup that’s rather void of either is invaluable.

The Bad

There’s an argument to be made for why Wil Myers has not, or is not playing baseball games in Kansas City. There is. I think. Maybe.

Whether it would be the 40-man crunch due to the Rule V draft in November, or the gaming of service time so Myers doesn’t hit free agency the year after Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are scheduled to, the reasons for keeping Myers in Omaha are flimsy at best.

The organization already showed its hand in calling up players “when they were ready”. Hosmer was brought up a month into a season of clear non-contention to burn service time because he was deemed ready. Moustakas was the same, as was Danny Duffy. The Royals have already proven that they’re willing to shirk the normal rules of service time and money to get players to the big leagues once they’ve proven they’re ready.

So why is it that Myers continues to hit, and hit well, in Triple-A while Jeff Francoeur continues to be one of the worst players in baseball?

There’s probably a very, very good reason why Myers is still not in Kansas City. The worry would be, however, that the precedent has already been set by the organization that is now changing their rules to accommodate a player they’re well known to love, that just isn’t that good.

Nate Adcock took the loss, as he allowed those six runs on seven hits in just the 2nd inning. After that, he only allowed two hits.

Jake Odorizzi was named the Pacific Coast League’s Player of the Week. Infielder Christian Colon, who fouled a ball off his face after a promotion to Triple-A, will miss the rest of the season.

NW Arkansas scored a run in the first inning, but went on to lose to Frisco, 6-1. Mike Montgomery was in trouble in every inning but the third, and lasted just five innings. The five walks and a three-run homerun did him in.

In the loss, Paulo Orlando went 3-for-4.

Blue Rocks first baseman Matt Fields

With big league GM Dayton Moore in attendance in Frederick, Wilmington lost both games of their doubleheader. Their lead in the Northern Division in the Carolina League dropped to just a 1/2 game. The games got started late, as rain pushed back the start time by about an hour.

Game 1 was picked up in the 3rd inning, as it was suspended from a July game in Wilmington (in which Dylan Bundy started). Anyway, it was a back-and-forth affair late and the Blue Rocks had a chance in the bottom of the 9th inning. With a run in, a runner on first base, and just one out, Angel Franco grounded into a game-ending double play.

Matt Fields went 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored.

Game 2 was so much worse. The long ball once again came back to haunt Blue Rocks starter Jason Adam. The Keys scored five runs in the first inning as Adam allowed back-to-back homeruns, one was a three-run shot. He was in-and-out of trouble throughout his five innings of work.

Shortstop Orlando Calixte was hit by a pitch in the 4th inning and immediately was replaced.

Brooks Pounders was named the Carolina League’s Pitcher of the Week.

Kane County was the only KC Royals affiliate to win on Monday night, as they defeated Burlington, 5-4. Down 3-1 heading into the top of the 8th inning, the Cougars scored four runs and held on. Chris Elder hit a grand slam, just his second homerun of the season (first with the Cougars).

Alex Llanos and Tim Ferguson each collected two hits in the win. Angel Baez made the start and allowed an unearned run over five innings of work. He gave up four hits and three walks, but struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-5 with a solo homerun in Burlington’s 5-4 win in 12 innings. The second game of their doubleheader was postponed. He reached on a fielding error in the 12th inning and scored the winning run.

The Royals’ Patrick Conroy was named the Appalachian League’s Pitcher of the Week.

Burlington

Mark Threlkheld has cracked the top ten in hitting in the Appy League (tenth) with a .294 batting average. He has 33 RBIs, which ranks him ninth (in a tie). He went 6-for-23 (.261) with five runs scored and four RBIs. Patrick Leonard is tied for second in the Appy League in RBIs with 42 and dropped to second place in homeruns with 13 (he hit just one last week). He did hit .333 (8-for-24) last week. Fred Ford is third with 12 homeruns (one of his three hits last week).

It was another tough week for prospect Bubba Starling. He went 4-for-23 (.174) with 12 strikeouts.

Daniel Hernandez is ninth in the Appy League in ERA (3.64) and he leads the Royals in innings pitched (59.1 innings). He’s been getting roughed up a bit as of late. Last week, he allowed six runs on 11 hits over two starts (12.2 innings). The strikeout to walk ratio still continues to be great (13 to 2 last week). Yender Caramo is right behind Hernandez in innings pitched (59). Last week, he made one start and allowed just one run over six innings. He did allow nine hits, but did not walk a batter while striking out four.

Reliever Daniel Stumpf has been dominant throughout the 2012 season for the Royals. It was no different in his two appearances last week. Over four innings, he allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out four.

Idaho Falls went 3-4 last week. The Chukars are tied for second place in the South Division of the Pioneer League at 11-10. They also return home for a nine-game homestand (around an off day). Of the Chukars losses last week, only one was by more than three runs.

The top offensive performers for the Chukars have cooled off a bit. Ethan Chapman dropped to .322, as he only played in three games (3-for-11 with four RBIs). Nick DelGuidice dropped his average to .298, as he 4-for-17 with three RBIs. Adalberto Mondesi‘s average dropped to .285 after going just 4-for-26 with 13 strikeouts.

The one positive on offense for the Chukars last week was third baseman Diego Goris. He went 7-for-20 (.350) with seven runs scored and six RBIs.

Check out MiLB’s feature on 2012 second round draft pick Sam Selman, who leads the Pioneer League in ERA (1.31) and strikeouts (73). In his one start last week (August 14th), he allowed one run on five hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out 11.

Cory Hall made two relief appearances last week and allowed three hits over 2.1 scoreless innings. He struck out three.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

They also rode the arm of Jake Odorizzi, who improved to 10-2 in Triple-A. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks over seven innings.

If you’re interested in checking out the Storm Chasers celebration on Saturday night, check out Minda Haas’ site Royal Blues for photos.

NW Arkansas lost the first game of their doubleheader in Frisco, 3-0. The Naturals collected just two hits.

Noel Arguelles waited three days to make his next start (after two rainouts). He took the loss, as he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over five innings. He struck out six.

The Naturals also lost the second game, 3-1. They actually out-hit Frisco 6-4, but went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They had a chance to win the game (or at least tie it) in the top of the 7th inning. They had the bases loaded and one run already in, but Carlo Testa grounded out to end the game.

Whit Merrifield went 2-for-4 with a triple. Justin Marks took the loss, as he allowed all three runs on four hits and a walk over four innings.

Wilmington couldn’t complete the sweep over Lynchburg, as they lost 3-2. The Blue Rocks scored both of their runs in the first inning. Three of their four hits came in that first inning.

With the game tied at 2-2 in the top of the 9th inning, Braeden Schlehuber reached on a fielding error in center field and moved all the way to third base. He came around to score when the Blue Rocks middle infielders tried to turn a double play (but couldn’t).

The Blue Rocks had the tying run on third base with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, but Murray Watts flied out to end the game (he ended up 2-for-4).

The Wilmington loss dropped them to just 2.5 games ahead of both the Hillcats and Frederick. The Blue Rocks now head to Frederick for five games and then to Lynchburg for three more games.

Kane County led 4-3 heading into the 8th inning, but lost 7-4 in Burlington. The Bees scored four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning aided by three singles, three walks, and a wild pitch.

Alex Llanos went 3-for-4 and Chris Elder went 2-for-4 with two RBIs in the loss.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-4 loss in Greenville.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

Blue Rocks shortstop Orlando Calixte

Saturday night’s Wilmington Blue Rocks game was considered boring for the first eight innings. Well, boring for those who do not like pitcher’s duels. It got exciting quick in the bottom of the 9th inning when Cheslor Cuthbert led off the inning with a single off Lynchburg reliever Juan Jamie. He moved to second base on a wild pitch and Nick Van Stratten moved him to third base on a ground out. Van Stratten had squared to bunt but pulled back and slapped it up the middle.

The Hillcats elected to intentionally walk the next two batters to load the bases with one out. Luis Piterson hit into a force out (the out came at the plate), which brought up shortstop Orlando Calixte with two outs and the bases loaded.

The 2-2 pitch was VERY close. So close that the entire Lynchburg infield began exiting the field. The catcher triple-clutched his throw because he couldn’t believe the home plate umpire did not call the pitch a strike.

Anyway, with new life and a 3-2 pitch, Calixte took the fastball into left field, just out of reach of the diving left fielder for the game winner. While the Blue Rocks were celebrating and chasing Calixte around the field, the Hillcats coaching staff was going nuts at the umpire. I don’t blame them and I’m pretty sure any other coaching staff in baseball would have been freaking out (the pitch looked that good).

After the game, Calixte talked (through interpreter Angel Franco, the Blue Rocks utility fielder) about the game winning hit, facing a pitcher who throws so hard, how many game winning hits he has had in his career, and how he took that 2-2 pitch. He, like Pounders, was also pied in the face during the interview, but kept on going. Pounders was kind enough to wipe some of the shaving cream out of his face.

Following all the shaving cream pies, Blue Rocks manager Vance Wilson wanted to make sure he was facing the hallway just in case a pie was coming his way. He talked about the throws by Brett Eibner, the start from Pounders, his bullpen duo of Chase Boruff and Robinson Yambati, the defensive abilities of Lynchburg shortstop Nick Ahmed, and how well his team is finally playing with the playoffs about two weeks away.

Jul 17, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ryan Verdugo (62) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Omaha returned home and beat Nashville, 5-3. The Storm Chasers also clinched the American Northern Division of the Pacific Coast League.

Ryan Verdugo was solid yet again, as he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Anthony Seratelli went 4-for-4 in the win. Rey Navarro made his Triple-A debut at second base and went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base.

NW Arkansas was postponed for the second straight night. They will make up Saturday night’s game as part of a doubleheader on Sunday in Frisco.

The game of night in the KC Royals farm system was in Wilmington, as they walked off 1-0 winners over Lynchburg. They increased their lead to 3.5 games in the Northern Division of the Carolina League in the second half.

It was a well-pitched game between Brooks Pounders of Wilmington and Dimasther Delgado of Lynchburg. Pounders lasted seven innings for the second straight start and allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out seven. When he did get into trouble, he was bailed out by two GREAT throws from centerfielder Brett Eibner to end back-to-back innings. Delgado allowed just four hits and a walk over six innings.

It came down to the bottom of the 9th inning with hard-throwing Juan Jamie on the mound for the Hillcats. With the bases loaded and two outs, shortstop Orlando Calixte came to the plate. With a 3-2 count, he ripped the fastball just out of the reach of the diving Dan Brewer in left field and the Blue Rocks began celebrating and chasing Calixte all over the field.

Pounders talked after the game about his back-to-back great starts, the throws from Eibner, and his pickoff move. He was then pied in the face to end the interview by catcher Juan Graterol.

Kane County pounded out 14 hits and beat Burlington, 7-3. Five different Cougars had multi-hit games. Only one of those hits went for extra bases.

Kyle Smith picked up his fourth win, as he allowed an unearned run on three hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out nine. Cody Fassold followed with 2.2 perfect innings of relief. He struck out five.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Burlington’s 2-0 loss at Greenville.

Judy Johnson is a Hall of Famer and the namesake of the field at Frawley Stadium. His statue stands outside the ballpark. He was a key member to some of the best teams in Negro League history. You can find out more about Johnson HERE .

The thing that disappoints me is that they have dropped the ball over the years with honoring the Negro Leagues in Wilmington (just like they have in Kansas City). Back in the day, both teams used to wear Negro League uniforms (I am a sucker for old school uniforms). Then their game worn hats would be auctioned off to support the Negro Leagues. They do have auctions going on throughout the concourse of autographed memorabilia tonight (which are drawing some crowds).

This year is no different. It is also Star Wars Night, with Star Wars characters set to be in attendance. It seems as if the promotional team is more interested in pushing that than the history of the Negro Leagues and Judy Johnson.

Anyway, to the game (and enough of my rambling).

First half Northern Division champion Lynchburg (the High-A affiliate of the Atlanta Braves) is in town and the Hillcats are 2.5 games back of the Blue Rocks in the second half standings. The Blue Rocks have taken the first two games of the four-game series, as the pitchers have allowed just two runs to the Hillcats. In Game 1, the Blue Rocks won 2-1 and walked off on a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the 10^th inning. In Game 2, the Blue Rocks scored ten runs in the bottom of the 2^nd inning and rode the arm of Matt Ridings to another victory.

Taking the mound for the Blue Rocks tonight is Brooks Pounders, who the Royals acquired this past offseason from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the fact that Pounders has been with Wilmington since June, this will be the first time I will be seeing him pitch. With the Blue Rocks, he is 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 13 games (12 starts). He has allowed more hits (74) than innings pitched (63.1). His last start at Potomac was a great one: 7IP, 4H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K.

The Hillcats will be sending Dimasther Delgado to the mound. Overall he is 6-6 with a 4.35 ERA in 20 starts. He, like Pounders, allows more hits than innings pitched (125 hits in 107.2 innings). Delgado faced the Blue Rocks in back-to-back-starts (June 29 and July 5) and allowed three runs in each game.

Lineups:

HILLCATS: Mycal Jones (CF), Nick Ahmed (SS), Dan Brewer (LF), Chris Garcia (1B), Edward Salcedo (3B), Adam Milligan (RF), David Rohm (DH), Emerson Landoni (2B), and Chad Comer (C).

BLUE ROCKS: Orlando Calixte (SS), Brett Eibner (CF), Lane Adams (RF), Matt Fields (1B), Cheslor Cuthbert (3B), Nick Van Stratten (DH), Geulin Beltre (LF), Juan Graterol (C), and Luis Piterson (2B).

(more…)

August 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Chris Getz (17) gets the force out on Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (not pictured) at second base and throws to first for a double play in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Getz was having his best year as a big leaguer in 2012, despite two previous trips to the disabled list during the season. His season ends with his batting average, slugging percentage and OPS all being career highs and, had he been healthy most of the year, would have likely been able to reach career highs in hits and doubles.

Instead, it’s cut short.

There hasn’t been a move to replace Getz on the roster yet, but all signs point to Johnny Giavotella replacing him. Giavotella was hitting .323/.404/.472 in Omaha. After the Royals announced that Getz would miss the rest of the year, Giavotella was pulled from Omaha’s lineup against Las Vegas. Earlier this season, Giavotella  spent a month with Kansas City and hit .217/.260/.261.

The Getz versus Giavotella debate has worn on all season, going back to spring training. Giavotella didn’t take advantage of the first opportunity to win the job and went to Omaha to continue to work on his defense. He was also working back from offseason hip surgery and as the months have gotten warmer, so has his bat. With Getz performing adequately at the plate and displaying good defense, the Royals hadn’t been compelled to make a change.

Since being drafted in the second round in 2008, Giavotella has drawn questions about his defense. Despite extensive work in Triple A, he’s probably only going to be average at his very best at the position. The Royals will accept that if he hits. Despite hitting everything in the minors, he hasn’t been able to translate it to major league success and the Royals have seemed timid about giving him an opportunity to sink or swim. If he hits like many scouts think he can, he’ll be a good offensive weapon in the lineup and should balance out any problems with the glove. If he doesn’t hit, the next man in line is Christian Colon, who was recently promoted to Omaha and got seven hits in his first 17 at bats, including a double and a homer. He recently fouled a ball that hit the ground and then hit him in the eye, so he’s currently on the DL.

I see it playing out with Giavotella getting the rest of this year to see if he can hit big league pitching. If not, we may see more of the Getz/Giavotella merry-go-round while Colon spends some time in Omaha waiting to step in (assuming the Royals don’t involve Giavotella or Colon in a deal this offseason).

Veteran Doug Davis courtesy of Minda Haas (Royal Blues)

It was a matchup of Doug Davis against former Storm Chaser Sean O’Sullivan and O’Sullivan won the battle. Davis allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out eight, but allowed two solo homeruns. O’Sullivan allowed just one run on four hits and three walks over seven innings while striking out six.

The Storm Chasers lone run came via Mitch Maier‘s 4th inning solo homerun. Anthony Seratelli went 2-for-3 in the loss. In case you were wondering, Johnny Giavotella did not play.

NW Arkansas‘ game in Midland was postponed due to bad weather. However, the Naturals were eliminated from the postseason, as Springfield beat San Antonio.

Where did all of Wilmington‘s offense suddenly come from (and where has it been all season)? They scored ten runs in the 2nd inning and cruised to an 11-1 victory over Lynchburg. The Blue Rocks hold a 2.5 game lead over the Hillcats for the second half Northern Division title (the Hillcats won the first half).

The Blue Rocks collected 12 hits, but just three doubles, so they singled the Hillcats to death and capitalized on three Hillcats errors. Five Blue Rocks hitters had multi-hit games.

Matt Ridings was the beneficiary of all that offense, though he didn’t need a whole lot. He allowed an unearned run on three hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Kane County and Clinton took their scoreless duel into the 10th inning when the LumberKings scored two runs. The Cougars got a run in the bottom of the 10th inning on Justin Trapp‘s solo homerun (he went 3-for-5). However they could not complete the comeback and lost 2-1.

Remember Tim Melville? He started for the Cougars in his return from the DL (where he has spent most of the season) and allowed just one hit and two walks over four innings. He struck out four. Andrew Triggs followed with four perfect innings of relief with four strikeouts.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts in Burlington’s 5-1 loss to Greenville. Playing shortstop for the Astros (in just his sixth game), the top pick in this past June’s draft, Carlos Correa, went 2-for-4 with a homerun.

We also spoke with former KC A’s First Baseman and six time All-Star Jim Gentile about his time with Kansas City, being a member of the Orioles Hall of Fame and the famed summer of 1961, when he went toe to toe with Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Kings of Kauffman – How do you explain the White Sox struggles at home against the Royals at home but being successful largely in Kansas City?

Matt Adams– Mostly chance. This team, as is the case with most, go through hot and cold streaks.  It just so happens that some poor games have been strung together against the Royals.  It would be nice to have some extra consistency against a less experienced team but the White Sox haven’t exactly been able to turn that into an advantage.

Jeremy Guthrie will face the White Sox for the second time in just over a week on Sunday at the K. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

KOK – What is the team’s plan for Chris Sale at this point of the season? 

MA – The idea at this point is to keep him fresh through the year so that he’ll be primed for a playoff run.  It’s tricky with a guy who hasn’t even approached this sort of workload before.  You want to protect him but at the same time you don’t want to miss out on the value that he provides.  Sale is arguably this team’s ace, and you feel much better about winning games when your ace is on the mound.

KOK – On a scale to 1-10 how surprised are White Sox fans with Robin Ventura at this point?

MA – I’d put it at maybe a 2.  Nobody knew what to expect out of Robin before the season started so there isn’t much to be surprised about.  Everybody is psyched about the job he’s done.  The team is in first and the players appear to be pretty relaxed out there.  There are some gripes about his x’s and o’s here and there but overall he’s got the fans feeling good.  A manager doesn’t really need to change his style for fan opinion of him to change.  All that has to shift is the team’s record and the fan opinion will go along with it.

KOK – What’s happened in the brief time since these two teams met last week at the Cell?

MA – Since last we met there was a bit of a moral victory to accompany some big wins.  The White Sox had been notoriously bad playing in the Rogers Center and managed 3 of 4 there.  Again, likely it was just a timing thing along but feels good to not have that hanging over the team.  Paul Konerko has missed the entire week after hitting the 7-day DL from a concussion inadvertently delivered by Jarrod Dyson.  He’s available for the series for the first time since the two teams last played.

For the other side of the conversation check out Southside Showdown

Probable Starters this weekend –

Friday 7:10 pm, Chris Sale (14-3, 2.60) v. Luis Mendoza (6-8, 4.37)

Saturday 6:10 pm, Jake Peavy (9-8, 3.04) v. Bruce Chen (8-10, 5.56)

Sunday 1:10 pm, Jose Quintana (5-2, 2.77) v. Jeremy Guthrie (5-12, 5.75)

The Nationals were 69-93 in 2010. They were 80-81 last year. Today, they have the best record in the big leagues and, not coincidentally, their starting pitching has given up the least amount of runs in the league. Similarly, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh are all in the top ten among starting rotations in runs allowed per game and are in the playoff hunt.

The Royals scored more runs in 2000 than any other Royals team in franchise history. Their 879 runs scored eclipsed the old record of 856 runs set in – wouldn’t you know it?  - 1999. In those two seasons, they scored 1735 runs. They won 141 games and lost 192. The offense was around the top third in all of baseball, but the pitching staffs gave up the second most runs in the majors in 1999 and the third most in 2000. A strong offense can’t erase awful pitching.

Now, the Royals find themselves with a lineup that feels like it should be able to produce runs over the long-term (or at least, that’s what the scouts say), but the key to success will be pitching, specifically starting pitching.

That’s as true today as it was on the last day of the season in 2011 as it was on the first day that pitchers and catchers reported. The Royals entered 2012 needing pitching and in the middle of August, they still need starting pitching. Injuries have hurt. If all goes well with recovery, they should see Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino return next July or so, but their contributions may only have an impact if he Royals can manage to piece together some winning months prior to the duo’s return.

The team’s relative inactivity in the offseason to add significant depth to a potential rotation gives me pause about hoping for significant upgrades in the rotation, although some may be on the Royals radar this winter. The Royals ideal situation is to develop pitching via the farm system as the Rays have done with James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson et al; like the Nationals have done with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler. Hopefully, the Royals go after some of the arms available in free agency or through trade because, in the meantime, while there are a number of strong performances in the minor leagues by pitchers who compose what could be the next wave of talent, most aren’t ready to make the jump yet.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Jake Odorizzi has performed well since his promotion to Omaha, allaying concerns that he might struggle early in a tougher league. Last year, he’d racked up 108 strikeouts in 78.1 innings for Wilmington, but became homer-prone in the Texas League and ended his 12 start stint in Northwest Arkansas with a 4.72 ERA. He started his 2012 season back in Double A, put in seven good starts and earned a promotion.

Since then, he’s been putting up good numbers in Omaha, capped off by an outing on Tuesday where he went 6.2 innings before allowing a hit. In 89.1 innings in Triple A, he’s got a 2.92 ERA (though his walk rate is up and he’s giving up more hits, so there could be some good fortune in that ERA). He’s a flyball pitcher, so it will likely make him home run prone once he gets to the big leagues, but he can miss enough bats and should have pretty good control to allow him to limit damage. He projects as a number three starter with some upside and should get to Kansas City in September for a couple appearances.

Another prospect to dream on is John Lamb, who has finally made it back to the mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June and in the process of maintaining his conditioning, aggravated a tendon in his ankle and had to hold off on game action.

On Tuesday, he started for the Arizona Royals in Surprise, throwing a scoreless inning and striking out two. A batter reached on an error, but Lamb gave up no hits or walks.

The Royals will probably be very patient with him for the rest of this season, just getting him worked back into game speed. I think we’d all like to see him make a start at each level until he got back to Double A, but I think he’ll work within the rookie levels, then into instructional leagues. J.J. Picollo said on a recent Royals TV broadcast that they’re looking for Lamb to start in Double A next year and be on the fast track. Lamb’s got a good shot to make that happen – he’s been touted for his temperament before even being drafted, and has come back from significant injury before. He might see Kansas City late in 2013, possibly on a similar path as Odorizzi has been on this year of a few starts for the Naturals, a long stint in Omaha and then Kansas City in late August or as a September callup.

Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura is another guy to keep an eye on. He’s possibly got the most upside of any starter in the system, but those types usually have some risk. In his case, the Royals are probably going to have to resist the urge to turn him into a reliever if he encounters any bumps in the road. He’s small (listed at 5’11″ 140 pounds, though he looks like he’s filled out since) and the perception is that smaller pitchers are fragile or can’t hold up to the rigors of 200 inning seasons.

That being the case, he has the potential to be a high strikeout pitcher if he starts, has shown decent control, and has the type of stuff that misses bats. He can hurl a fastball into the triple digits, his curveball is developing into a solid secondary pitch and his changeup could be more than adequate. He’s currently on the disabled list in Double A with carpal tunnel symptoms in his wrist, but should finish the year there, start back there next year and hit Omaha in the summer months.

Of course, Kyle Zimmer should be in this discussion. The Royals first rounder in 2012 is only 20 years old coming out of college and has already started to shine in Low A Kane County’s rotation. He’s made eight pro starts, building up 33.2 innings, striking out 39 batters and walking just seven. He’s also been getting a decent amount of grounders in his short pro career. Strikeouts plus low walk totals plus groundball tendencies are great components for a future star to have. He’s had one rough start of those eight, but all of his others have been dominant. He’ll start next year at High A Wilmington and might be up in mid-2014 if he keeps rolling.

One pitcher who needs a new challenge is Sam Selman. The lefty from Vanderbilt has been destroying the Pioneer League and will hopefully get a shot at a higher level to see how his dominance continues. He’s striking out 13.9 batters per nine innings at Idaho Falls.

Kyle Smith struck out 11 batters in five innings in his first pro start for Idaho Falls and was moved to Kane Country afterwards. He’s continued to perform well there, making nine starts and striking out 58 batters in 45.2 innings. He has nearly a 5/1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He’ll turn 20 next month and isn’t the big, tall pitcher the Royals usually go for as a starter, but he deserves a look as he moves up the minor league ladder. His best start came two weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings, gave up just three hits and struck out 12 while walking none against Cedar Rapids. More of that, please.

Jason Adam

Another good arm in the system is Jason Adam. He started the season off well for Wilmington, hit some rough patches in May and June, but has righted the ship and is pitching well. His 5-11 record is deceiving, as he’s hardly gotten any run support in most of his starts, best demonstrated by a May 19 start when he went six innings, struck out seven and gave up two runs, and the Blue Rocks got no-hit. He’s surpassed seven innings in six starts to lead Wilmington and has a good share of 6+ IP starts as well.

As a result, he’s probably thrown too many innings to get anything more than a courtesy start in Double A. At 141 innings this year, he might be shut down soon. He’s a strong candidate to start the year in Double A next year after demonstrating enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9) and prevent walks (2 BB/9) this year while also inducing his share of ground balls. He has good stuff, but it’s not dominating, though he’s been adding velocity recently. He’s hit the mid-90s with his fastball before, and if he can build up to that level, it gives him more upside. He’s another guy who scouts suggest could be a #3 starter down the line.

Unfortunately, for the moment, this is all just dreaming on these guys, because Odorizzi’s the closest to the big leagues and won’t have much time in the big leagues if at all by next spring and it may keep him from making the team out of Surprise. Lamb and Ventura will probably hit Triple A next year, but among Zimmer, Adam, Selman and Smith, there’s not a single pitch at the Double A level yet. That puts them some ways away from the big leagues.

Ideally, the Royals will be able to add these arms to the mix in the future. They won’t have much impact next season so if the Royals are to build up their rotation (which they need to do), they’ll have to go after those free agent targets. They may have to put one of these arms into a trade to get a better return on a starter with another team. The Royals want to bring their star starters up from the minor leagues and have a homegrown staff, and that’s commendable, but for the moment, unless Mike Montgomery (5.71 ERA in 41 innings after his demotion to Double A) or Chris Dwyer (6.21 ERA in Omaha) figure things out – sooner rather than later – the homegrown pipeline of pitching talent will remain a pipe dream.

The top of Omaha’s order, Falu and Anthony Seratelli, went a combined 5-for-12 with three RBIs. Derrick Robinson went 3-for-5 with three runs scored in the win.

NW Arkansas was battered in Midland, 13-3. The RockHounds led 11-0 after three innings. JC Sulbaran, who the KC Royals received from Cincinnati for Jonathan Broxton, continues to struggle with his new team (3IP, 9H, 11R, 5BB, 3K, 3HR). His ERA climbed to 10.64.

The bright spot for the Naturals was the relief outing from Ryan Dennick. He pitched four shutout innings and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out five.

The Naturals scored three runs, but only picked up five hits, two from Paulo Orlando.

Blue Rocks reliever Nick Rogers

Wilmington and Lynchburg were locked in a pitcher’s duel and carried it into extra innings. The Blue Rocks came out victorious in ten innings, 2-1. They walked off on a bases loaded walk (the third walk of the inning).

Andy Ferguson started for the Blue Rocks and allowed just one run (on a 6th inning solo homerun) over six innings. He allowed four hits and two walks while striking out nine. Nick Rogers, who seems to have rebounded from his struggles over the last two months, pitched three scoreless innings of relief (just one hit and one walk while striking out five).

Kane County beat Clinton, 5-3. 2012 first round draft pick Kyle Zimmer pitched another gem for the Cougars. He allowed two unearned runs on seven hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. Zimmer also picked a runner off second base.

On offense, Jack Lopez went 2-for-3 and Michael Antonio scored two runs and drove in two runs in the win.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a run scored and two strikeouts in Burlington’s late inning loss to Princeton. He also threw a runner out at the plate.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s first guest is “Diamond” Jim Gentile, a former All-Star and runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 1960 and an MVP candidate in the 1960s. He played in Kansas City with the Athletics in 1964 and 1965 after strong years with the Orioles.

We’ll also talk with Randy Herr, longtime Kansas City baseball fan and father of co-host Jeff Herr.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Cabrera was having a great season, challenging for the batting title while being a key part of the Giants offense, being selected to start the All-Star Game, and winning the exhibition’s MVP award. This followed up on a breakout year in 2011 when Melky turned an opportunity with the Royals into a career year, registering 200 hits, one of just five batters to do so.

Now, much of that is called into question.

Nobody knows when Cabrera may have started using an illegal substance. It certainly could have been one time and he happened to get caught. There will be suspicions though. Cabrera came into 2011 having lost a lot of weight and performed better than ever after a career of mostly mediocre to average seasons. Until other information comes out, I’m going on the assumption that he used one time, perhaps to continue the strong performance he’d happened upon in 2011.

August 31, 2011; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Melky Cabrera (53) in the dugout during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

That’s not going to stop the questions, though. Cabrera had never had a season with an OPS above .752 in a season. He’d never surpassed 30 doubles until 2011. He had more than 50 additional hits than his next highest season. That sudden spike in performance won’t go unnoticed by those who want to point fingers. For the sake of giving someone the benefit of the doubt, I hope there’s only smoke and no fire, but I wasn’t the only one who thought his performance was a fluke most of last year (and at a certain point, I just had to accept what was happening despite my previous skepticism).

It’s unfortunate. Cabrera seemed to be a fit in the Royals clubhouse last year and fans took to him in San Francisco.

But he broke the rules.

The Royals traded Cabrera in the offseason for Jonathan Sanchez and while it looks like an awful trade today, at the time it was reasonable for both sides. Few expected Cabrera to maintain his success much less improve upon it, and Sanchez had shown potential in the past. It ended up going as badly as possible for the Royals with Cabrera’s big year, Sanchez’s awful season, and is only somewhat improved by getting good performances from Jeremy Guthrie after the Rockies took Sanchez off the Royals hands.

Some have said that this indicates that the Royals “won” the trade since Cabrera is out for the rest of the regular season.

They didn’t get any of Cabrera’s 159 hits in 2012 and the suspension sure doesn’t take away Sanchez’s stinkbomb starts. There turns out to be no winner in this deal and the Royals are fortunate to have gotten any kind of return to salvage anything after such poor results.

These situations tarnish the game and the accomplishments of the players involved. Last year, the Royals outfield performed as well as any in baseball history at the plate. It was one of few high points in another losing season. Now there’s a question mark over it. Still, no matter how disappointing it is to any 2011 Royals marks, it’s more disappointing to Giants fans and teammates, who are fighting for a playoff spot and now lost a key producer for a third of the year for something he may not have even needed to do.

Nate Adcock started for the Storm Chasers and left in the 8th inning with a runner on second base and one out. Vin Mazzaro entered and allowed the runner to score (and took the loss).

On offense, the Storm Chasers only had five hits, with Max Ramirez picking up two hits. He also drove in both runs.

Christian Colon was placed on the DL due to an eye injury. He spent a good chunk of his season in Double-A on the DL already. You can find out more HERE (the bottom of the article).

Clinging to a 4-2 lead, Midland scored five runs in the bottom of the 6th inning to defeat NW Arkansas, 7-5. The Naturals made it interesting in the top of the 9th inning, by scoring a run and putting runners on first and second base with just one out. However Whit Merrifield and Brian Fletcher struck out to end the game.

Yem Prades went 3-for-5 in the leadoff spot and Paulo Orlando went 2-for-4 in the loss.

Jason Adam

It was the Adam & Adams show for Wilmington on Wednesday night, as they beat Potomac, 9-1. Lets start with outfielder Lane Adams. He drove in the Blue Rocks’ first run in the top of the first inning and came around to score another in that seven-run inning. In the end, he went 3-for-5.

Jason Adam made another dominant start for the Blue Rocks, as he pitched six shutout innings. He allowed four hits and struck out five. He didn’t allow a hit until the 3rd inning and only had multiple base runners in one inning (the fourth, but with two outs).

Clinton scored all ten of their runs from the fourth to the sixth innings to beat Kane County, 10-4. This was after the Cougars had a 3-0 lead.

Every starter for the Cougars, except Justin Trapp had at least one hit. Alex Llanos went 2-for-4. Chris Elder, who has been on the move all season, went 3-for-4 with two doubles and three RBIs.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored in Burlington’s 2-0 win over Princeton. Each team collected just three hits.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Jake Odorizzi (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Omaha beat Las Vegas in the first game of their four-game series, 7-0. The Storm Chasers had two 3-run innings to go along with a no-hitter watch from Jake Odorizzi. He carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning before a walk and a Jack Cust single with two outs broke it up. Overall, Odorizzi allowed that one hit and two walks over seven innings. He struck out four. Brandon Sisk got into trouble in the 8th inning (two hits) before inducing an inning-ending double play. He cruised through the ninth 1-2-3.

Every starter for Omaha had at least one hit, except Wil Myers and Derrick Robinson. Irving Falu and Johnny Giavotella each collected two hits, while Max Ramirez went 3-for-4.

Wilmington‘s winning streak came to an end in Potomac with a 7-5 loss. The Blue Rocks held a 5-0 lead heading into the 5th inning when the P-Nats scored two runs off Leondy Perez, and another five more in the 6th inning.

The Blue Rocks couldn’t capitalize on ten hits and six P-Nats errors. It didn’t help that they went just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and struck out 13 times.

*Both NW Arkansas and Kane County had off on Tuesday.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a solo homerun and three strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-2 win over Princeton.

Jeremy Guthrie, dominating. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That means that in his last three starts, Guthrie has gone 21 innings, given up just three earned runs and allowed only 18 baserunners while striking out 18.

Not bad for a guy the Royals got for Jonathan Sanchez.

Some fun facts about the game:

• Guthrie has thrown 15 straight shutout innings for the Royals. Sanchez has thrown 11.1 innings total for the Rockies in three starts.
• All eight of Guthrie’s strikeouts tonight came on a swing and a miss.
• After two rough starts as a Royal, Guthrie’s ERA has went from 6.68 to 5.75. He has a 4.02 ERA as a Royal. If you could cherry-pick a couple of innings out of those starts (like the third inning against the Twins and first two against the Mariners – and no, of course you can’t, but let’s dream a little), he could have a 1.58 ERA. I know, I know. That’s cheating.
• Tim Collins struck out the side in the eighth inning. He leads the team in relief appearances with three strikeouts or more with eight now.
• Collins also set a new team record for strikeouts in a season by a left-handed reliever with 77.
• David Holtzman from the Royals pointed out that Collins (5’7″), the shortest pitcher in team history, broke a record set by Andrew Sisco (6’10″) in 2005.
• The Royals pitchers struck out 12 batters, the third time they’ve done so in a nine inning game this season.It’s the ninth time they’d struck out 12 overall.
• By shutting out the A’s tonight, the Royals have more team shutouts (9) than the Washington Nationals (7) who lead the majors in team ERA.
• The Royals team ERA was 25th in the league coming into the night.
• Tonight’s was the fourth shutout thrown by the Royals against the A’s.
• The only wins the Royals have against the A’s have been those shutouts. The Royals haven’t won in the three games in which the A’s have scored against them.

What do these facts mean? Not a lot, but Guthrie has been a welcomed addition to the team, especially considering how bad Sanchez was and that the Royals were ready to dump him for nothing in return. Tim Collins has been a solid piece in the bullpen.

Also it’s fun to get a win behind very good pitching. It’s been too rare this season.

Better times. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Betancourt was signed in the offseason to be a sort of utility player and a right-handed hitting option. The Royals said he’d only play a couple days a week to spell infielders, but after an injury to Chris Getz and with the Royals suspect of Johnny Giavotella‘s abilities, he started through most of June and July.

The Royals cited an unwillingness to accept his role, which had diminished with Chris Getz playing adequate baseball and left Betancourt on the bench more often. Nevermind that his WAR ranked him among the least valuable players in baseball.

That leaves the Royals with Chris Getz assuming the everyday second baseman job right now, and he’s running with it. He’s doing just what he needs to do, and that’s be okay. He’s hitting alright. He’s fielding alright. He’s not hurting anything. He’s the equivalent of oatmeal for breakfast. Sure you’d like the stack of pancakes, the bacon and eggs, but oatmeal, well, it’ll hold you over. My gut is to be upset about his playing time, but he’s effectively inert right now, and given the struggles of other players, Getz doesn’t deserve my complaints.

Now, it’s a waiting game to see when (if?) the Royals will call up Johnny Giavotella. Yes, he’s struggled in the majors so far, but the Royals haven’t committed much energy to finding out if their second round pick from 2008 can adjust and learn at the major league level. Maybe he never pans out, but what do they have to lose right now in the middle of August? I think that if they can give Betancourt TWO stints in Kansas City and can stick with Getz through the first mediocre 700 plate appearances of his Royals career, then they can at least let Giavotella have more than 260 to show that he might be able to handle the job.

Regardless, our best wishes to Betancourt. We’ll always remember the magic grand slam season of 2010, the sideways one-handed popup flubs and the statement “plus hands and plus hands“.

Jul 17, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ryan Verdugo (62) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Omaha completed their four-game sweep at Tuscon on Monday, 5-2. Their magic number to clinch the division is now just five.

One day after picking up 33 hits, the Storm Chasers collected 11 more. Wil Myers, Max Ramirez, and Derrick Robinson each collected two hits. Five different players drove in runs.

Ryan Verdugo picked up the win despite not being great. He allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks over six innings. He did strike out seven. Donnie Joseph pitched two perfect innings of relief to pick up the save (his best game as a Storm Chaser).

NW Arkansas overcame three errors to beat Frisco in a late comeback, 4-3. The Naturals also went 3-for-10 with runners in scoring position and hit into two double plays.

The Naturals stole six bases. Yem Prades led off and went 3-for-4. Carlo Testa and Michael Liberto each collected two hits.

Justin Marks returned to the rotation for the first time since June 21st (he was on the DL). He lasted just 3.1 innings and 58 pitches. Michael Mariot followed and picked up the win, as he allowed an unearned run (and one of Marks’ runs) on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings.

Wilmington has won four in a row since manager Vance Wilson‘s closed door meeting on Thursday night, as they beat Potomac 4-2 in the first game of the three-game series. Brooks Pounders picked up the victory, as he allowed just an unearned run (in the first inning) on four hits over seven innings. He struck out five.

Things got interesting in the bottom of the 9th inning. The P-Nats had two runs in and runners at second and third base with two outs, but reliever Robinson Yambati picked up a strikeout to end the game.

On offense, the Blue Rocks collected ten hits, but went just 4-for-14 with runners in scoring position. The newest Blue Rock, Nick Van Stratten, went 3-for-3.

Cedar Rapids scored three runs in the bottom of the first inning and cruised to the 5-1 victory over Kane County. The Cougars collected just three hits.

Aaron Brooks dropped to 9-12  on the season. Kellen Moen followed with 2.1 perfect innings of relief while striking out three.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

Burlington

Outfielder Alex Hudak joined the Royals from the AZL and has been on fire over his first six games. He went 7-for-16 with four doubles, four RBIs, and two runs scored. Bubba Starling has struggled a bit at the plate, as he went 6-for-25 (.240) with a double, a homerun, two runs scored, and four RBIs. He struck out 12 times and broke his strikeout streak on Sunday (six straight games).

Patrick Leonard still leads the Appy League in homeruns with 12 (though there is now a tie). Fred Ford is third with 11 and Kenny Diekroeger and Starling are tied for fourth with eight homeruns. Terrance Gore still leads the league in stolen bases with 27 and has only been caught twice. He also leads the league in runs scored with 41.

John Walter made three appearances this past week and picked up two saves (he now has eight). Two of those appearances (2.1 innings) were perfect. Over 4.1 innings, he allowed one run on two hits while striking out two.

Idaho Falls sits in second base in the second half (9-8), one game back in the South Division of the Pioneer League. The Chukars went 4-2 last week. They begin a seven-game road trip against Billings tonight.

Ethan Chapman continues to be the Chukars top hitter (.325), but struggled last week (5-for-27). Adalberto Mondesi has surged over .300 (.307 to be exact). He went 8-for-22 (.364) last week with five runs scored. Shortstop Nick DelGuidice has also surged over .300 (.308). He went 9-for-19 (.474) with four doubles, a triple, five runs scored, and six RBIs.

2012 draft pick Sam Selman leads the Pioneer League in strikeouts with 62 (compared to just 15 walks). He made one start last week and allowed just one hit and two walks over five scoreless innings. He struck out 11.

Joe Lopez made two appearances for the Chukars last week. He allowed three hits over four shutout innings of relief. He struck out four and did not walk a batter.

The Royals just had a decent road trip but still came away with a loss on Sunday, so the Royalman Report tried to hearken back to better days, then tried to come up with how to bring those good days back.

We talked with our own Kevin Scobee of Kings of Kauffman about the Royals hints about converting some relievers into starters. The conversation led to talking about Luke Hochevar and what’s gone wrong, Kyle Zimmer and what’s going right and what attributes of some relievers work best if they were asked to become starters.

We also talked about Billy Butler‘s power surge in 2012 and marveled at his consistency even in the middle of a breakout. Then we set our sights on Steve Balboni‘s record – and wallowed in the fact that we’re still Royals fans, left behind while other small market teams challenge for playoff spots. Year Six…

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

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The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Omaha outfielder David Lough courtesy of Minda Haas (Royal Blues)

Omaha blew out one of the worst teams in the Pacific Coast League (Tuscon), 20-3.  The Storm Chasers pounded out 33 hits (that is not a typo) and every starter had at least two hits. The game was over after the third inning when Omaha scored eight runs in the 2nd and seven more in the 3rd. Mitch Maier hit a two-run homerun in the 2nd inning. Wil Myers hit a three-run homerun and David Lough hit a two-run homerun with two outs in the 3rd inning.

Myers (5-for-7 with four runs scored and three RBIs) and Lough (3-for-5 with five RBIs) fell a triple short of the cycle. Clint Robinson fell a homerun short of the cycle (5-for-7 with three runs scored and two RBIs).

The onslaught of offense made a winner of veteran Doug Davis, who allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over six innings. The Storm Chasers bullpen trio allowed just two hits over the final three innings.

Leading 4-2 heading into the top of the 9th inning, NW Arkansas lost to Frisco, 6-4. The Rough Riders scored four runs on a Chris McGuiness one out grand slam. In the bottom of the 9th inning, the Naturals went down quietly, with three strikeouts.

That blast negated the solid start by Noel Arguelles, who allowed two runs (one earned) on seven hits and five walks while striking out five over seven innings.

The Naturals collected nine hits, with Paulo Orlando and Mario Lisson each picking up three (Lisson hit a homerun).

The Naturals welcomed Justin Marks back from a long DL stint, but placed Yordano Ventura on the DL (he has minor carpal tunnel).

Wilmington beat Salem 5-0, as they swept Salem over their final three-game set. The Blue Rocks rode the arm of Matt Ridings, who did not allow a hit until the 6th inning. He pitched a career-high seven innings and allowed just three hits while striking out three and hitting two batters. He also had good defense behind him, as he induced ten ground ball outs.

Murray Watts and Luis Piterson provided the bulk of the Blue Rocks offense, as both collected two hits, scored a run, and drove in a run (Watts hit a homerun).

For more on Ridings’ outing, check out this article on milb.com.

Kane County pounded out 15 hits, as they beat Cedar Rapids, 9-5. Five Cougars had multi-hit games. The bottom two in their order, Henry Moreno and Kevin David, went a combined 5-for-8 with four runs scored. Moreno hit his first homerun.

All of that offense made a winner of Kyle Smith, who allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits and a walk over five innings. He struck out four.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 2-for-2 with two walks in Burlington’s 8-0 loss to Bluefield.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals former player Mike Sweeney (right) celebrates with George Brett (left) after a home run during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Recently, there’s been some discussion on the Kansas City Baseball Vault about these sorts of matters. We’ve discussed what four players would comprise a Royals Mt. Rushmore. Our latest episode considered the case of Joe Randa and others as potential members of the Royals Hall of Fame.

The players who’ve already been elected have solid cases. Ranking them by bWAR makes Cookie Rojas (5.4) the most suspect of Royals Hall of Famers, but he also played during some of the Royals first winning seasons and made four All-Star teams as a Royal.

So what makes a player worthy of his team’s hall of fame? Number help, and someone in the top five all time would be a shoo-in, but what about the fringe cases? What about the group of players who played after George Brett retired? Players like Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran have good numbers in the years when they were Royals, but Dye’s best years were with the White Sox. Damon was a key figure in the Red Sox 2004 World Series season. Beltran hasn’t been in a Royals uniform in nearly a decade. They also played on teams that didn’t win a lot of games and obviously didn’t make a playoff appearance.

Does that discount the efforts of Mike Sweeney, who played in more games as a Royal than Royals Hall of Famers John Mayberry and Freddie Patek? Does never making the playoffs make Randa, who’s seventh all time as a Royal in base hits, an easy no?

Also, does it matter that a player like Randa wasn’t the key player on those teams?

Then, how do you rank someone like David Cone, who only threw 448.1 innings as a Royal but is one of three Royals to win a Cy Young Award?

So many questions.

To me, numbers matter and a player who put up good ones as a Royal should get consideration. To an extent, tenure matters too. A player is better off being more recognizable as a Royal than a member of another team. Mayberry is more known for his strong years as a Royal than those as a Blue Jay.

That makes the cases for Damon, Dye and Beltran pretty tough to make. They had the numbers, but most merely doff their cap at their Royals years, while their time on other teams stand out. What, then, happens if Damon, with over 2700 career base hits, were to make the National Baseball Hall of Fame? Can a team have a player start their career with them, spend years in the organization and on the team and then make the Hall but not their own team’s?

Here are some other cases that interest me:

Charlie Leibrandt spent time in a Royals uniform from 1984 to 1989, accumulating 21.5 WAR in 1257 innings. That’s more WAR than Paul Splittorff, more innings than Steve Busby. Leibrandt also made two strong starts in the 1985 World Series after finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting that season. He was never a star, but was a solid starter in his time.

Mike Sweeney finished his career as a Royal with the same on base percentage as George Brett, though in less than half as many games. Still, in the late-90s and early 2000s, Sweeney was a premier slugger in the AL. After trying to keep his career going with the Mariners, A’s and Phillies, he’s still recognizable as a Royal first. He’s always been active in the community and well-liked. Based on that, he’s the obvious next choice to be inducted, but the teams he played on were rarely any good. Is a good player on a crummy team worthy of such recognition? Probably so, but I’d listen to someone who had a strong argument against it.

Danny Tartabull spent just five years with the Royals but ended with the highest OPS+ of any Royal with significant playing time. He drove in 100 runs three times in those five seasons, surpassing 30 homers twice as well. Does playing on teams where he was overshadowed by Brett and Bo Jackson impact his standing in franchise history? It shouldn’t, but it does.

David DeJesus was solid in his Royals career, but never a star. He never excelled in any offensive category, but simply got on base, hit the ball and played adequate defense. He just happened to stick it out with the Royals long enough to end up in the top ten of multiple offensive categories, but he never made an All-Star game and never considered much of a star, but his ranks within the franchise’s history look impressive relatively. He had more WAR than Damon (though in two more seasons).

What about Mike Macfarlane, a solid catcher and often one of the few power threats in some weak Kansas City lineups? What about Tom Gordon, who is more recognizable as a member of the Red Sox, but who threw more innings than Royals Hall of Famers Jeff Montgomery and Dan Quisenberry (and nearly as much WAR as Busby)? What do you do about Zack Greinke when he retires? He’s probably not signing back with the Royals, but only Kevin Appier, Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza (all of whom had more than 500 innings as Royals) have more pitching WAR than Greinke.

You don’t want to let just anybody in, but at the same time, there could be a huge gap in potential inductees given the lean years since the early-90s. I see some merit in going after Damon, Dye and Beltran, though, because for a time, they comprised the most talented outfield in baseball, gave hope for a resurgence and are always in the minds of Royals fans. They have a lasting impact on the organization, for their on-field contributions as well as their historical significance within team history (even if it’s a painful significance).

That trio and Sweeney should have a spot one of these days.

Just for fun, I made a list of some potential inductees, ranked them by WAR as a Royal and included the amount of time they spent with the team and their number of plate appearances or innings pitched: Players in italics are already inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

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August 7, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits two run homer against the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

In the last couple of years, Butler’s gotten a bad  rap. He’s always been a good contact hitter and one of the best at hitting doubles. His size, though, suggested that he should be able to hit for more power. Because he wasn’t, a group of fans would perk up if he went into any slump, however brief, and state that Butler was an overrated player and that anyone could do his job as designated hitter.

It’s for that reason that I love writing about Billy Butler.

Truth is that yes, he does look like a player who should be able to knock out 30 homers year in and year out. It’s just never happened before.

Earlier this season, Butler was showing strong power numbers. At the All-Star break, he was a legitimate option to join the American League home run derby team (and infamously did not get selected). In the past week, he’s set a new career high in homers in a season, and there’s plenty of 2012 to go.

So the thought turns, as it often does, to the question of chasing down the Royals franchise home run record. Perhaps just as disappointing as the Royals 27 year playoff drought is the fact that no current major league franchise has a home run record lower than the Royals 36. Steve Balboni‘s record has stood since 1985, and really hasn’t been approached very often. The Royals haven’t even had a player hit 30 homers since Jermaine Dye‘s 33 in 2000.

Where’s Butler stand in that chase?

Before tonight’s game against the Orioles, Butler has 23 homers in 111 games. He’s working on a pace of one homer per every 20.3 plate appearances.

If he plays in every game left on the schedule (50), that pace would give him 33 homers in 2012, which should put a lot of doubters to rest (especially since his walk rate and strike out rates are better than league average and he’s batting .300).

To reach 37 homers and beat Balboni’s record, he’ll have to homer once every 15 plate appearances or every 13.5 at bats. That’s not outrageous, but it’s also a much greater pace than his current one. To reach 40 homers, he’ll have to homer about once every 12 plate appearances or about every 11th at bat. That’s a Ruthian pace, so 40 homers are probably out of reach.

Thirty homers is easily in reach and I’d say very likely to happen. Balboni’s record is pretty safe – though Butler’s always had bigger power numbers in the second half through his career, so it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Forty homers would be fun and all, but is a very unlikely feat this season.

Nate Adcock picked up the victory after allowing three runs and scattering 11 hits over five innings. Four Omaha relievers closed out the victory.

Reliever Sam Runion

After the two teams combined for a total of five first inning runs, NW Arkansas held on for the 5-4 win over Midland. Brian Fletcher (2-for-4) gave the Naturals the lead in the first inning with a three-run homerun. He ended up driving in four of the Naturals’ five runs.

Ethan Hollingsworth picked up the win after throwing four innings of relief. He allowed one run on two hits while striking out two. Sam Runion picked up his second save by striking out the side on just 11 pitches (ten for strikes).

I guess Thursday night’s closed door meeting by manager Vance Wilson worked: Wilmington beat up on Salem, 9-1 in the first game of the three-game series. Salem led 1-0 after the first inning (without a hit), but Blue Rocks starter Jason Adam cruised from there. He allowed the unearned run on just two hits over seven innings. He walked one while striking out six. Both singles off Adam came in the 3rd inning. He finished his outing by retiring the final 13 batters he faced.

Matt Fields continued his tear on Carolina League pitching, as he went 5-for-5 with two more homeruns.

Kane County beat Clinton, 5-0 as they scored all their runs in the 7th and 8th innings. The KC Royals top pick in this June’s draft, Kyle Zimmer, was dominant over his 6.2 innings. He allowed just three hits while striking out ten. In his first win with the Cougars, Zimmer struck out at least one hitter in every inning but the third.

The Cougars 4-5 hitters, Dean Espy and Alex Llanos, delivered the bulk of the offense. The two combined to go 4-for-8 with three doubles, three runs scored, and three RBIs.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and three RBIs in Burlington’s 12-5 win. The Royals were down 5-2 heading into the 7th inning before scoring six and then another four in the 8th inning.

Freddie Patek was a fixture in the middle of the infield during some of the most successful days in Royals history. The diminutive shortstop later earned election to the Royals Hall of Fame and was our first guest on the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Thursday. He talked about his heyday with the Royals, playing the game the right way, playing for Whitey Herzog and Ewing Kauffman and overcoming the stigma of being a small player.

Then we talked with Storm Chaser’s outfielder David Lough as he lounged poolside on Omaha’s day off. He noted that he’s working on using his speed more this season, excited to be in the hunt for another Pacific Coast League championship. He then handed the phone off to his roommate, second baseman Johnny Giavotella, who talked about working back from hip surgery early in the year, his hot streak in July and the things he’s working on defensively. He also seemed to put out a challenge to his other roommate Anthony Seratelli for the home run lead in the apartment (Giavotella has 10, Seratelli has 16 this year).

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Down 4-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th inning, the NW Arkansas Naturals made yet another comeback against Midland. On Thursday night however, they could not pull out the victory, as they lost 4-3. One day after making a pretty good Double-A debut, Whit Merrifield came to the plate with two outs and the winning run on second base. He could not come through, as he lined out to left field.

Mike Montgomery took the loss, as he again struggled. He lasted just 4.1 innings, as he allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out five. He threw 95 pitches.

Wilmington was once again battered by Winston-Salem, as they lost 9-2. For more on specifics of the game, check out my live blog. The pitching wasn’t great, the offense was pretty much non-existent, and the effort wasn’t there. That led to a closed door meeting following the game by manager Vance Wilson. He was not happy that when the team was down 5-2, the mood in the dugout was as if they were down 30-2.

Following that meeting, Wilson talked about his team’s play, the thought of making the playoffs, reliever Nick Rogers and his struggles, and Leondy Perez‘ third start since coming off the DL.

After my battery ran out, I asked Vance if he had any updates on some of the injured players. Reliever Cole White has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on his way back. Brett Eibner (who isn’t on the DL but hasn’t played lately) felt good today and should be back out on the field on Saturday. Outfielder Roman Hernandez, who has been out awhile, has no timetable for his return. He has been dealing with blurry vision that hasn’t improved. As Vance said, “it could be five days or five months.” They just have to wait and see.

After a scoring a run in the top of the 8th inning to tie the game, Kane County fell to Clinton 2-1 in ten innings. The loss negated the solid start by Jason Mitchell, who pitched five scoreless innings. He allowed four hits while striking out five.

It wasn’t a great game for the Cougars. They committed three errors and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling had the day off as Burlington beat Danville, 10-2.

Oh and Jason Adam finally won his second game (and third).

Wilmington Blue Rocks pitcher Leondy Perez

Leondy Perez has returned from the DL. He will be making his third start for the Blue Rocks tonight since returning from the DL on July 28^th. Overall, he is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 games (seven starts). Since returning from the DL, Perez has struck out ten in nine innings (while allowing four runs on nine hits and two walks). He will be opposed by Winston-Salem’s Stephen McCray (5-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 20 games, 12 starts). The Dash right-hander has been a full-time starter since the June All-Star break.

Tonight’s game is the final game of their three-game series (and the last time the two teams will play barring a matchup in the Carolina League Championship). Heading into the game, the Blue Rocks are tied for first place in the Northern Division with Frederick (and just a ½ game up on the other two teams in the division). The Dash (who are the first half champs) are tied for first place in the Southern Division with Myrtle Beach (four games up on Carolina). When in Winston-Salem last week, the Blue Rocks lost two of three.

Let’s take a look at the first two games of the series.

Wilmington took Game 1 on Tuesday night in dramatic fashion. With two outs and a runner on second base and trailing 1-0, Watts lifted a fly ball to centerfield. Game over right? Wrong. Dash centerfielder Trayce Thompson dropped the ball, allowing the tying run to score. After Elder walked, Angel Franco delivered the game winner, a double to left.

Winston-Salem took Game 2, 8-0. They pounded out 13 hits, to just three for the Blue Rocks (Geulin Beltre had two of the hits). They were shut out for a league-worst 13th time this season.

Lineups:

DASH: Keenyn Walker (CF), Marcus Semien (SS), Trayce Thompson (RF), Dan Black (1B), Cyle Hankerd (DH), Michael Earley (LF), Mike Blanke (C), David Herbek (3B), and Daniel Wagner (2B).

BLUE ROCKS: Angel Franco (2B), Orlando Calixte (SS), Lane Adams (CF), Matt Fields (1B), Cheslor Cuthbert (3B), Geulin Beltre (RF), Murray Watts (DH), Juan Graterol (C), and Chris Elder (LF).

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Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

This should be a fun show.

We’ll talk with Freddie Patek, a Royals Hall of Famer, three-time All-Star and key component to some of the best Royals teams in franchise history.

Sticking with the short middle infielder motif, we’ll also talk with Johnny Giavotella about his recovery from hip surgery in the offseason, his hot bat in July, and working his way back to the big leagues. Also, we’ll have Gio’s roommate, outfielder David Lough to talk about working through an organization that has such a crowded bunch of outfielders and a second run at the Pacific Coast League championship.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Jake Odorizzi pitched well for the Storm Chasers, but ended up with the no-decision. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out four.

Irving Falu and Adam Moore each collected two hits, while Wil Myers went 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored.

Whit Merrifield leading off on Opening Night for Wilmington

Down 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning, NW Arkansas scored two runs in that inning and walked off winners over Midland, 5-4. With one out, the newest Natural, Whit Merrifield doubled. After an intentional walk, Kevin Kouzmanoff flied out, moving the runners up a base. So with two outs, Manny Pina delivered the game winner, an RBI single to center.

Merrifield had an eventful first game in Double-A. He homered in the 5th inning with two outs off a former foe, Sonny Gray (who dominated in his time at Vanderbilt). Plus, he scored the game winning run.

The Naturals bullpen duo of Buddy Baumann and Ryan Dennick combined to throw five scoreless innings of relief. They allowed one hit and three walks while striking out six.

Wilmington was blasted by Winston-Salem, 8-0. The Blue Rocks were out-hit 13-3. Geulin Beltre collected two of the hits and also threw a runner out from right field at second base.

The Blue Rocks were sloppy, as they made two errors along with a passed ball. The Dash also stole five bases.

Kane County lost their first game in Clinton, 6-2. Both teams collected eight hits, but the Cougars’ hits were all singles. Jorge Bonifacio and Dean Espy each collected two hits.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in Burlington’s 7-1 loss to Danville.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

Herrera has the changeup armed and ready. Batters beware. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

In Tuesday’s win over the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera came in to finish the seventh inning and stayed in for the eighth. The first batter he faced was Alexei Ramirez. Herrera opened up with three 99 mph fastballs before unleashing his best pitch – after a foul ball he threw an 86 mph changeup that tumbled down and in for a swinging strikeout.

Herrera rocketed through the Royals system last year as a 21-year-old, opening in High A and finishing as a September callup. He pitched well this spring and earned a spot in the bullpen. Since, he’s put up 58 innings, with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s struck out 56 batters while walking just 12.

Movement of Kelvin Herrera's changeup (TexasLeaguers.com)

A big part of that is that he’s armed with a fastball that averages 97 mph which is difficult to catch up to for even the best hitters, but his changeup is what really stands out.

You can see that in the video below at the 22 second mark where the ball falls away from John Jaso and he catches it on the end of the bat, shattering the barrel:

According to TexasLeaguers.com, Herrera throws the changeup 21.8% of the time and gets it over for a strike almost 75% of the time. Moreover, it results in a swing and a miss more than a quarter of the time. In those moments when the batter does make contact, it turns into a ground ball an astounding 78.6% of the time.

Herrera's changeup location vs. LHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He throws the pitch at nearly the same rate to right-handed batters (21%) as he does left-handed batters (25.8%), and it settles in the same area of the strike zone with regularity. It dives down and in on righties and floats away from lefties. As a result, his splits look even, with neither handed batter being able to do much against him at all. That helps his value as a pitcher since he can be trusted to face the left-handed batters when necessary.

So this pitch 1) has a stark speed differential from his big fastball 2) has a lot of movement and is hard to hit and 3) when it is hit, it’s often hit on the ground.

That’s a winning recipe.

The numbers suggest that not only is Herrera’s changeup effective – it’d be hard to argue that it wasn’t just by watching film alone – but it’s the fifth most valuable changeup in baseball among pitchers with 50 IP or more and one of the most valuable overall. Batters have a .369 OPS when he’s thrown the changeup.

Herrera's changeup location vs. RHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He’s willing to throw it in nearly any count, though it’s frequently used with two strikes and hardly used for the first pitch of an at bat. What’s interesting is that he’s comfortable throwing the changeup in the middle of a count with two balls and while he’s thrown the change in three ball counts just 11 times total all season, nine of those were in full counts. How’d you like to be that batter, geared up for triple digit heat in a full count and have to adjust to the 86 mph change that falls off the table? Can’t imagine that’s a lot of fun at all. Half of his strikeouts have been on changeups, even though he throws them less frequently than the fastball with two strikes.

Herrera primarily relies on fastballs and changeups to get through his innings, only throwing a curve about 8% of the time. As a reliever, that’s okay because both pitches are so strong he can use them regularly in shorter outings. So far this year, he’s faced more than nine batters one time when he faced 10 Pirates, so he isn’t getting through a lineup more than once. I bring this up because there are calls to make Herrera a starter some time in the future. His stuff warrants the question, though there are concerns.

He missed large chunks of time in the minors due to injury (he appeared in 9 games combined in 2009 and 2010) which bring his durability in a rotation into question. Once moved into the bullpen full time starting last year, he took off. He turns 23 on the last day of 2012, though, so the Royals could take a look if they wanted to – though it’s probably best to take what he can do now at maximum effort and wield it when necessary as a traditional fireman of sorts. With Greg Holland assuming the closer’s role, Herrera’s ability to get strikeouts and ground balls makes him an ideal candidate out of the bullpen to come in during a jam. He doesn’t walk many at all either. He has more value as a starter, but if he gets hurt and ends up being ineffective, what value is there in that?

No matter what his role ultimately turns out to be, Herrera’s changeup will continue to wreak havoc on American League batters.

–A week after this article, FanGraphs ended up showing a fun .gif of Herrera’s changeup with some updated stats on its effectiveness.

*(All pitch selection numbers are based off of the figures on TexasLeaguers.com as of 11 p.m. August 7.)