The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

If you follow the Royals’ minor league system at all, there is one theme.  Wilmington is a tough place to hit.  Being a position player in the system and getting a promotion to high A ball is the equivalent of the Royals Brass telling you that they would like to see how you handle failure.  It is a pitchers park of nearly epic proportions.  Cuthbert’s 2012 line of .240/.296/.322 is definitely scary, and maybe completely meaningless as well.  I went back and looked for Royals in Wilmington going back to 1994 to see who hit well there.  Plenty of players, including Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, and even Ken Harvey had nice seasons for the Blue Rocks, but there is a consistent similarity among them all, and that is that they were all in their early 20s.  Only one player under age 20 had a significant amount of playing time in Wilmington and had good hitting numbers.  Wil Myershad a nice half season in is age 19 season.

Cheslor Cuthbert via Jen Nevius

The best parallel for Cheslor is Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was actually a year older at each stop, but had a similar path of decent rookie ball year and a pretty good line between low A and A ball.  Then he arrived in Wilmington and struggled to a line of .229/.311/.363 as a 20 year old.  The following year he repeated his time at high A, and did much better, getting a promotion to AA where his numbers exploded.  That is the hope for someone like Cuthbert in 2013.  Getting a chance to age and repeat could lead to similar growth as a player.  Not only that, but the fact that he is following a similar path at a younger age means that the ceiling for him may be very high.

Digging into last season there were some good signs.  Away from his home park, Cuthbert’s average was similar, but his OBP was 20 points higher and his slugging was 60 points higher.  Also, after three really awful months, his OBP in the last two months (a little over 100 PAs) of the season were .343 and .364 with the usual small sample size caveats.  Everyone is loving up Adalberto Mondesi this spring, and for good reason, but don’t forget about Cheslor Cuthbert.  It would not at all be surprising to me if next year he was in AA and/or AAA and creating questions about how to handle the log jam at third base.

Let’s look at the main reasons Escobar is being tabbed for regression first.  His walk rate did not change last year, but his strike out rate went from 12.2% in 2011 up to 15.4%.  That is not generally what you would like to see.  Additionally, he posted a BABIP of .344 after being below .300 in his first two full seasons.  This is actually in line with his minor league BABIP results, but maintaining that high of a number at the major league level takes a lot of skill.  Finally, one of the main factors that contributed to this high BABIP and the increase in power, mostly due to more doubles, is his line drive rate.  Alcides’ LD% increased from 18.1 up to 23 in 2012, and that’s a good thing.  The problem is that line drive rate has a very low correlation year to year.  In fact, of all the hitting metrics tested, it has the lowest correlation at 0.293, which means we can’t count on it being sustained.  The last piece here is the increased strike out rate that came from lower contact rates, and just keep in mind that his swing rates and pitches per plate appearance, so he wasn’t more selective.

That is a lot of evidence that suggests Alcides Escobar’s 2012 was partially luck driven, but there are a couple of things he did a lot better.  One thing that makes me think he is getting better is that last year he maintained his ground ball rate while increasing his line drive rate.  That means that he avoided fly balls posting his best FB% ever at 23.7%, and that is highly correlated year to year.  If he

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) hits a double in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

hits fewer line drives this year it may mean his number of ground balls may increase rather than them turning into fly balls.  This is imperative for a hitter with so little home run power because almost all of his fly balls will end up being outs.  The second thing in Escobar’s season that stands out to me is his change in pitch values.  Last year he crushed fast balls compared to prior seasons, and he has been getting better at this over time.

In case you are unfamiliar with these, wFB is runs above on fastballs, while the wFT is two seem fastballs, wFC is cutters, and wFA is four seam and unclassified fastballs.  What these show is that Alcides was an above average hitter on fastballs last year for the first time in a full season, and that he improved from 2010 to 2011 as well.  Just for reference sake, Billy Butler’s wFB last year was 27, and Billy saw a fastball about 53.5% of the time last year versus Escobar’s 58.6%.  That means pitchers could start throwing fewer fastballs to Alcides, but even extreme fastball hitters still see a fastball 45% of the time.  He does not fit this category as these tend to be dead pull hitters with lots of power, think Ryan Howard.

At his age, Alcides Escobar’s improvement last year could be mostly due to development as a player through hitting the fastball well and avoiding fly balls.  If that development continues in his 26 year-old season this summer it could offset the regression from a little luck last year, and keep in mind that his BABIP and such don’t point to a crazy amount of luck either.  There is no reason that he cannot repeat, or even better, what he produced at the plate last summer

First, there are 4 players in the Detroit line-up that could end up as liabilities:

Andy Dirks just turned 27 and has only two partial years in the majors.  Last year he looked good in the 344 plate appearances he received.  Two things jump out at me though.  A BABIP of .365 is probably not sustainable, but more importantly how he has been used.  Of those plate appearances 261 came against righties and 83 against lefties.  They plan to platoon him due to his splits, but the other side of the platoon is uncertain.   Also, his power is limited with a career high of 15 homers between AA and AAA in 2010 and he rates out negatively defensively as well.

Torii Hunter had an incredibly lucky year at the plate last year with a BABIP of .389, and he is now 37 years old.  His aging has been showing slowly with power ticking down over time.  His average is likely to drop back to the .260s or 70s and 15 HRs is likely the max.  His walk rates and K rates got significantly worse last year.  He was always a defensive stud, but his legs aren’t what they used to be although he rated out very well last year by UZR for the first time in a number of years.

Victor Martinez is now 34 and just sat out a whole year.  His power looked diminished two years ago even though he put up a stellar batting average.  Projections see him taking a big step back overall this year.  He will probably still be useful as a hitter, but not a significant piece you want in the middle of your line-up.

Jhonny Peralta hit .239/.305/.384 last year.  He used to hit for power, but those years seem behind him.  His average will probably come back a little, but the rest of what he offers is pretty mediocre.

Based on these the Royals are obviously better than Detroit at Left Field, DH, and Short Stop.  Jeff Francoeur is still worse than a diminished Torii Hunter.  It would not surprise me if Second Base was similar for both teams as Omar Infante is nothing special, and Salvador Perez should be significantly better than Alex Avilatoo.  Those six positions will need to be decidedly in the favor of the Royals for run production between the two teams to be similar because the other three positions are solidly in Detroit’s favor.

February 22, 2013; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Atlanta Braves during spring training at Disney Wide World of Sports complex, Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In the last nine seasons Miguel Cabrera has been very, very good.  Good enough that he is heading toward certain Hall of Fame territory and that Triple Crown is quite a feat.  Prince Fielder is pretty good too in case no one had noticed.  Austin Jackson is not in that rarefied air, but he is better than Lorenzo Cain unless Cain takes a large step forward.  Still, a big year out of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, which is not out of the question, could make the offensive difference between the Royals and Tigers negligible.  Just to clarify though, this means the Royals would need to close up a 50 run gap from last year, which means the Royals need to take a big step forward (as they should) and the Tigers take a small step back.

On to the second problem for the Tigers, defense:

Over the years I have gone from loving the new defensive metrics, to looking at them askance, to checking multiple sources hoping to find a consensus.  The Tigers corner infielders are Miggy and Prince, and their defense last year, and every year, has been bad.  For some reason though, UZR has like Jhonny Peralta the last two years at short after making him look terrible for most of his career.  At the same time UZR hates Alcides Escobar in 2012.  I have no idea how to process Jhonny Peralta being two WAR better than Escobar based on defense.  Baseball Reference had them closer to the same last year, but I am starting to believe Jeff Zimmerman’s  theory on shifting helping out Moose and hurting Alcides in the advanced stats.  Everything I see tells me Omar Infante is the only decent defender in the infield for Detroit.  In the outfield, Dirks had negatives last year, for what it’s worth, and Hunter is not what he used to be due to age, so center is the only place with a plus defender.  Avila seems to be a decent catcher, but catcher fielding is even harder to quantify than the others, so I won’t try and give a sweeping pronouncement.  Here I think the Royals have a significant advantage in LF, 3B, SS, 1B, and Catcher.

The third problem for the Tigers is the bullpen:

Let’s get the good out of the way first.  Joaquin Benoit and Brayan Vilarreal are probably pretty good.  I only say probably because Vilarreal only has 54 2/3 innings of quality relief to his name in the bigs.  Even last year, when Vilarreal established himself, his xFIP was 3.96, so he may not actually be good.  Benoit, on the other hand, has been good for the last three years and is their best relief pitcher.  After those two you have a lot of questions.  Bruce Rondon is supposed to be the closer, but he has major control problems and is probably not going to be taking care of the 9^th inning this year if his spring continues as at began.  Phil Coke and Darin Downs are not impressive in any way along with Octavio Dotel who is 49 and has been consistently middle of the road.  Maybe Al Alburquerque is a stud, but he still hasn’t done it over a whole season.  This is a bullpen that would be lucky to have three really solid guys.  The Royals have Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, and Kelvin Herrera at the back end, and this is a huge advantage.

Now for Detroit’s huge advantage:

The rotation for the Tigers is much, much better than the Royals.  In fact, it is better at each of the five rotation spots.  Justin Verlander is better than pretty much everyone, Royal or not, and James Shields is not in that stratosphere.  Then Detroit has three somewhat indistinguishable guys in Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Anibal Sanchez.  Scherzer is probably the riskiest since he has been inconsistent.  Fister has had solid seasons the last two years.  He is likely to be good again, but without the upside of Scherzer.  Anibal Sanchez has put up sub-4 ERAs in the past three seasons, four seasons if you include a partial season in 2009.  Sanchez puts people on base at too high of a rate to be dominant, but he has been consistently good.  I think the Royals could match these three with Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis, but that will take some luck and on an expectation basis the Tigers are well ahead.  If I were ranking these six I would probably go Fister, Sanchez, Guthrie, Scherzer, Santana, and Davis.  The first three are the most solid, and the other three have the highest upside.  Finally, the fifth spot.  The Royals are bound and determined to make Luke Hochevar fifth, while Detroit has Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello.  I will be honest. I hate Porcello, and always have.  In my opinion he is only marginally better than Hochevar, so I hope that’s who gets the job.  He cannot strike anyone out, and is not a great control pitcher either.  Drew Smyly on the other hand is a giant ball of potential.  He blew through the minors and struck out everyone on the way.  There are still some control issues, but nearly a K per inning can make up for some walks.  He is a question mark due to the limited time at the major league level, but he is likely better than anything the Royals can put in the 5^thspot.

September 26, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It is unlikely that the Kansas City rotation will find a way to outperform Detroit’s.  The main hope will be trying to match their starters and hope to take advantage of the other weaknesses.  For that to happen, Ervin Santana will need to be like his last couple of months last year rather than the atrocious start.  Hopefully being in Kauffman will help him keep the home runs down a bit.  On the bright side it is unlikely he will have an 18.9% HR/FB rate again…unless he is done as a major league pitcher.  KC will also need Davis to smoothly transfer back to the rotation and post an ERA near or below four.  Those are both possible, and coupled with Shields being what he has been and Guthrie doing the same, minus the Coors Field Experience, that would be a decent front four.  The fifth spot being Luis Mendoza would make me feel like this is an average rotation with some upside.  Instead we will likely see Hochevar, and that makes this a slightly below average rotation, so any of the other pieces breaking down could lead to a lot of problems, at least until Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino get back.  Those two make me very optimistic about next year’s rotation.

Overall the Tigers are the favorite due to their top end talent, which is second to none.  There are enough questions on this Detroit team though, that I don’t think they will go out and win 100 games and run away with the division  That means the Royals have a shot, but they will need to have a few things go their way with the rotation, and have the hitting disappointments of last year turn into positives.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

August 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Chris Getz (17) gets the force out on Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (not pictured) at second base and throws to first for a double play in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Getz was having his best year as a big leaguer in 2012, despite two previous trips to the disabled list during the season. His season ends with his batting average, slugging percentage and OPS all being career highs and, had he been healthy most of the year, would have likely been able to reach career highs in hits and doubles.

Instead, it’s cut short.

There hasn’t been a move to replace Getz on the roster yet, but all signs point to Johnny Giavotella replacing him. Giavotella was hitting .323/.404/.472 in Omaha. After the Royals announced that Getz would miss the rest of the year, Giavotella was pulled from Omaha’s lineup against Las Vegas. Earlier this season, Giavotella  spent a month with Kansas City and hit .217/.260/.261.

The Getz versus Giavotella debate has worn on all season, going back to spring training. Giavotella didn’t take advantage of the first opportunity to win the job and went to Omaha to continue to work on his defense. He was also working back from offseason hip surgery and as the months have gotten warmer, so has his bat. With Getz performing adequately at the plate and displaying good defense, the Royals hadn’t been compelled to make a change.

Since being drafted in the second round in 2008, Giavotella has drawn questions about his defense. Despite extensive work in Triple A, he’s probably only going to be average at his very best at the position. The Royals will accept that if he hits. Despite hitting everything in the minors, he hasn’t been able to translate it to major league success and the Royals have seemed timid about giving him an opportunity to sink or swim. If he hits like many scouts think he can, he’ll be a good offensive weapon in the lineup and should balance out any problems with the glove. If he doesn’t hit, the next man in line is Christian Colon, who was recently promoted to Omaha and got seven hits in his first 17 at bats, including a double and a homer. He recently fouled a ball that hit the ground and then hit him in the eye, so he’s currently on the DL.

I see it playing out with Giavotella getting the rest of this year to see if he can hit big league pitching. If not, we may see more of the Getz/Giavotella merry-go-round while Colon spends some time in Omaha waiting to step in (assuming the Royals don’t involve Giavotella or Colon in a deal this offseason).

We also spoke with former KC A’s First Baseman and six time All-Star Jim Gentile about his time with Kansas City, being a member of the Orioles Hall of Fame and the famed summer of 1961, when he went toe to toe with Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Kings of Kauffman – How do you explain the White Sox struggles at home against the Royals at home but being successful largely in Kansas City?

Matt Adams– Mostly chance. This team, as is the case with most, go through hot and cold streaks.  It just so happens that some poor games have been strung together against the Royals.  It would be nice to have some extra consistency against a less experienced team but the White Sox haven’t exactly been able to turn that into an advantage.

Jeremy Guthrie will face the White Sox for the second time in just over a week on Sunday at the K. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

KOK – What is the team’s plan for Chris Sale at this point of the season? 

MA – The idea at this point is to keep him fresh through the year so that he’ll be primed for a playoff run.  It’s tricky with a guy who hasn’t even approached this sort of workload before.  You want to protect him but at the same time you don’t want to miss out on the value that he provides.  Sale is arguably this team’s ace, and you feel much better about winning games when your ace is on the mound.

KOK – On a scale to 1-10 how surprised are White Sox fans with Robin Ventura at this point?

MA – I’d put it at maybe a 2.  Nobody knew what to expect out of Robin before the season started so there isn’t much to be surprised about.  Everybody is psyched about the job he’s done.  The team is in first and the players appear to be pretty relaxed out there.  There are some gripes about his x’s and o’s here and there but overall he’s got the fans feeling good.  A manager doesn’t really need to change his style for fan opinion of him to change.  All that has to shift is the team’s record and the fan opinion will go along with it.

KOK – What’s happened in the brief time since these two teams met last week at the Cell?

MA – Since last we met there was a bit of a moral victory to accompany some big wins.  The White Sox had been notoriously bad playing in the Rogers Center and managed 3 of 4 there.  Again, likely it was just a timing thing along but feels good to not have that hanging over the team.  Paul Konerko has missed the entire week after hitting the 7-day DL from a concussion inadvertently delivered by Jarrod Dyson.  He’s available for the series for the first time since the two teams last played.

For the other side of the conversation check out Southside Showdown

Probable Starters this weekend –

Friday 7:10 pm, Chris Sale (14-3, 2.60) v. Luis Mendoza (6-8, 4.37)

Saturday 6:10 pm, Jake Peavy (9-8, 3.04) v. Bruce Chen (8-10, 5.56)

Sunday 1:10 pm, Jose Quintana (5-2, 2.77) v. Jeremy Guthrie (5-12, 5.75)

The Nationals were 69-93 in 2010. They were 80-81 last year. Today, they have the best record in the big leagues and, not coincidentally, their starting pitching has given up the least amount of runs in the league. Similarly, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh are all in the top ten among starting rotations in runs allowed per game and are in the playoff hunt.

The Royals scored more runs in 2000 than any other Royals team in franchise history. Their 879 runs scored eclipsed the old record of 856 runs set in – wouldn’t you know it?  - 1999. In those two seasons, they scored 1735 runs. They won 141 games and lost 192. The offense was around the top third in all of baseball, but the pitching staffs gave up the second most runs in the majors in 1999 and the third most in 2000. A strong offense can’t erase awful pitching.

Now, the Royals find themselves with a lineup that feels like it should be able to produce runs over the long-term (or at least, that’s what the scouts say), but the key to success will be pitching, specifically starting pitching.

That’s as true today as it was on the last day of the season in 2011 as it was on the first day that pitchers and catchers reported. The Royals entered 2012 needing pitching and in the middle of August, they still need starting pitching. Injuries have hurt. If all goes well with recovery, they should see Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino return next July or so, but their contributions may only have an impact if he Royals can manage to piece together some winning months prior to the duo’s return.

The team’s relative inactivity in the offseason to add significant depth to a potential rotation gives me pause about hoping for significant upgrades in the rotation, although some may be on the Royals radar this winter. The Royals ideal situation is to develop pitching via the farm system as the Rays have done with James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson et al; like the Nationals have done with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler. Hopefully, the Royals go after some of the arms available in free agency or through trade because, in the meantime, while there are a number of strong performances in the minor leagues by pitchers who compose what could be the next wave of talent, most aren’t ready to make the jump yet.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Jake Odorizzi has performed well since his promotion to Omaha, allaying concerns that he might struggle early in a tougher league. Last year, he’d racked up 108 strikeouts in 78.1 innings for Wilmington, but became homer-prone in the Texas League and ended his 12 start stint in Northwest Arkansas with a 4.72 ERA. He started his 2012 season back in Double A, put in seven good starts and earned a promotion.

Since then, he’s been putting up good numbers in Omaha, capped off by an outing on Tuesday where he went 6.2 innings before allowing a hit. In 89.1 innings in Triple A, he’s got a 2.92 ERA (though his walk rate is up and he’s giving up more hits, so there could be some good fortune in that ERA). He’s a flyball pitcher, so it will likely make him home run prone once he gets to the big leagues, but he can miss enough bats and should have pretty good control to allow him to limit damage. He projects as a number three starter with some upside and should get to Kansas City in September for a couple appearances.

Another prospect to dream on is John Lamb, who has finally made it back to the mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June and in the process of maintaining his conditioning, aggravated a tendon in his ankle and had to hold off on game action.

On Tuesday, he started for the Arizona Royals in Surprise, throwing a scoreless inning and striking out two. A batter reached on an error, but Lamb gave up no hits or walks.

The Royals will probably be very patient with him for the rest of this season, just getting him worked back into game speed. I think we’d all like to see him make a start at each level until he got back to Double A, but I think he’ll work within the rookie levels, then into instructional leagues. J.J. Picollo said on a recent Royals TV broadcast that they’re looking for Lamb to start in Double A next year and be on the fast track. Lamb’s got a good shot to make that happen – he’s been touted for his temperament before even being drafted, and has come back from significant injury before. He might see Kansas City late in 2013, possibly on a similar path as Odorizzi has been on this year of a few starts for the Naturals, a long stint in Omaha and then Kansas City in late August or as a September callup.

Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura is another guy to keep an eye on. He’s possibly got the most upside of any starter in the system, but those types usually have some risk. In his case, the Royals are probably going to have to resist the urge to turn him into a reliever if he encounters any bumps in the road. He’s small (listed at 5’11″ 140 pounds, though he looks like he’s filled out since) and the perception is that smaller pitchers are fragile or can’t hold up to the rigors of 200 inning seasons.

That being the case, he has the potential to be a high strikeout pitcher if he starts, has shown decent control, and has the type of stuff that misses bats. He can hurl a fastball into the triple digits, his curveball is developing into a solid secondary pitch and his changeup could be more than adequate. He’s currently on the disabled list in Double A with carpal tunnel symptoms in his wrist, but should finish the year there, start back there next year and hit Omaha in the summer months.

Of course, Kyle Zimmer should be in this discussion. The Royals first rounder in 2012 is only 20 years old coming out of college and has already started to shine in Low A Kane County’s rotation. He’s made eight pro starts, building up 33.2 innings, striking out 39 batters and walking just seven. He’s also been getting a decent amount of grounders in his short pro career. Strikeouts plus low walk totals plus groundball tendencies are great components for a future star to have. He’s had one rough start of those eight, but all of his others have been dominant. He’ll start next year at High A Wilmington and might be up in mid-2014 if he keeps rolling.

One pitcher who needs a new challenge is Sam Selman. The lefty from Vanderbilt has been destroying the Pioneer League and will hopefully get a shot at a higher level to see how his dominance continues. He’s striking out 13.9 batters per nine innings at Idaho Falls.

Kyle Smith struck out 11 batters in five innings in his first pro start for Idaho Falls and was moved to Kane Country afterwards. He’s continued to perform well there, making nine starts and striking out 58 batters in 45.2 innings. He has nearly a 5/1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He’ll turn 20 next month and isn’t the big, tall pitcher the Royals usually go for as a starter, but he deserves a look as he moves up the minor league ladder. His best start came two weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings, gave up just three hits and struck out 12 while walking none against Cedar Rapids. More of that, please.

Jason Adam

Another good arm in the system is Jason Adam. He started the season off well for Wilmington, hit some rough patches in May and June, but has righted the ship and is pitching well. His 5-11 record is deceiving, as he’s hardly gotten any run support in most of his starts, best demonstrated by a May 19 start when he went six innings, struck out seven and gave up two runs, and the Blue Rocks got no-hit. He’s surpassed seven innings in six starts to lead Wilmington and has a good share of 6+ IP starts as well.

As a result, he’s probably thrown too many innings to get anything more than a courtesy start in Double A. At 141 innings this year, he might be shut down soon. He’s a strong candidate to start the year in Double A next year after demonstrating enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9) and prevent walks (2 BB/9) this year while also inducing his share of ground balls. He has good stuff, but it’s not dominating, though he’s been adding velocity recently. He’s hit the mid-90s with his fastball before, and if he can build up to that level, it gives him more upside. He’s another guy who scouts suggest could be a #3 starter down the line.

Unfortunately, for the moment, this is all just dreaming on these guys, because Odorizzi’s the closest to the big leagues and won’t have much time in the big leagues if at all by next spring and it may keep him from making the team out of Surprise. Lamb and Ventura will probably hit Triple A next year, but among Zimmer, Adam, Selman and Smith, there’s not a single pitch at the Double A level yet. That puts them some ways away from the big leagues.

Ideally, the Royals will be able to add these arms to the mix in the future. They won’t have much impact next season so if the Royals are to build up their rotation (which they need to do), they’ll have to go after those free agent targets. They may have to put one of these arms into a trade to get a better return on a starter with another team. The Royals want to bring their star starters up from the minor leagues and have a homegrown staff, and that’s commendable, but for the moment, unless Mike Montgomery (5.71 ERA in 41 innings after his demotion to Double A) or Chris Dwyer (6.21 ERA in Omaha) figure things out – sooner rather than later – the homegrown pipeline of pitching talent will remain a pipe dream.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s first guest is “Diamond” Jim Gentile, a former All-Star and runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 1960 and an MVP candidate in the 1960s. He played in Kansas City with the Athletics in 1964 and 1965 after strong years with the Orioles.

We’ll also talk with Randy Herr, longtime Kansas City baseball fan and father of co-host Jeff Herr.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Cabrera was having a great season, challenging for the batting title while being a key part of the Giants offense, being selected to start the All-Star Game, and winning the exhibition’s MVP award. This followed up on a breakout year in 2011 when Melky turned an opportunity with the Royals into a career year, registering 200 hits, one of just five batters to do so.

Now, much of that is called into question.

Nobody knows when Cabrera may have started using an illegal substance. It certainly could have been one time and he happened to get caught. There will be suspicions though. Cabrera came into 2011 having lost a lot of weight and performed better than ever after a career of mostly mediocre to average seasons. Until other information comes out, I’m going on the assumption that he used one time, perhaps to continue the strong performance he’d happened upon in 2011.

August 31, 2011; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Melky Cabrera (53) in the dugout during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

That’s not going to stop the questions, though. Cabrera had never had a season with an OPS above .752 in a season. He’d never surpassed 30 doubles until 2011. He had more than 50 additional hits than his next highest season. That sudden spike in performance won’t go unnoticed by those who want to point fingers. For the sake of giving someone the benefit of the doubt, I hope there’s only smoke and no fire, but I wasn’t the only one who thought his performance was a fluke most of last year (and at a certain point, I just had to accept what was happening despite my previous skepticism).

It’s unfortunate. Cabrera seemed to be a fit in the Royals clubhouse last year and fans took to him in San Francisco.

But he broke the rules.

The Royals traded Cabrera in the offseason for Jonathan Sanchez and while it looks like an awful trade today, at the time it was reasonable for both sides. Few expected Cabrera to maintain his success much less improve upon it, and Sanchez had shown potential in the past. It ended up going as badly as possible for the Royals with Cabrera’s big year, Sanchez’s awful season, and is only somewhat improved by getting good performances from Jeremy Guthrie after the Rockies took Sanchez off the Royals hands.

Some have said that this indicates that the Royals “won” the trade since Cabrera is out for the rest of the regular season.

They didn’t get any of Cabrera’s 159 hits in 2012 and the suspension sure doesn’t take away Sanchez’s stinkbomb starts. There turns out to be no winner in this deal and the Royals are fortunate to have gotten any kind of return to salvage anything after such poor results.

These situations tarnish the game and the accomplishments of the players involved. Last year, the Royals outfield performed as well as any in baseball history at the plate. It was one of few high points in another losing season. Now there’s a question mark over it. Still, no matter how disappointing it is to any 2011 Royals marks, it’s more disappointing to Giants fans and teammates, who are fighting for a playoff spot and now lost a key producer for a third of the year for something he may not have even needed to do.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Jeremy Guthrie, dominating. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That means that in his last three starts, Guthrie has gone 21 innings, given up just three earned runs and allowed only 18 baserunners while striking out 18.

Not bad for a guy the Royals got for Jonathan Sanchez.

Some fun facts about the game:

• Guthrie has thrown 15 straight shutout innings for the Royals. Sanchez has thrown 11.1 innings total for the Rockies in three starts.
• All eight of Guthrie’s strikeouts tonight came on a swing and a miss.
• After two rough starts as a Royal, Guthrie’s ERA has went from 6.68 to 5.75. He has a 4.02 ERA as a Royal. If you could cherry-pick a couple of innings out of those starts (like the third inning against the Twins and first two against the Mariners – and no, of course you can’t, but let’s dream a little), he could have a 1.58 ERA. I know, I know. That’s cheating.
• Tim Collins struck out the side in the eighth inning. He leads the team in relief appearances with three strikeouts or more with eight now.
• Collins also set a new team record for strikeouts in a season by a left-handed reliever with 77.
• David Holtzman from the Royals pointed out that Collins (5’7″), the shortest pitcher in team history, broke a record set by Andrew Sisco (6’10″) in 2005.
• The Royals pitchers struck out 12 batters, the third time they’ve done so in a nine inning game this season.It’s the ninth time they’d struck out 12 overall.
• By shutting out the A’s tonight, the Royals have more team shutouts (9) than the Washington Nationals (7) who lead the majors in team ERA.
• The Royals team ERA was 25th in the league coming into the night.
• Tonight’s was the fourth shutout thrown by the Royals against the A’s.
• The only wins the Royals have against the A’s have been those shutouts. The Royals haven’t won in the three games in which the A’s have scored against them.

What do these facts mean? Not a lot, but Guthrie has been a welcomed addition to the team, especially considering how bad Sanchez was and that the Royals were ready to dump him for nothing in return. Tim Collins has been a solid piece in the bullpen.

Also it’s fun to get a win behind very good pitching. It’s been too rare this season.

Better times. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Betancourt was signed in the offseason to be a sort of utility player and a right-handed hitting option. The Royals said he’d only play a couple days a week to spell infielders, but after an injury to Chris Getz and with the Royals suspect of Johnny Giavotella‘s abilities, he started through most of June and July.

The Royals cited an unwillingness to accept his role, which had diminished with Chris Getz playing adequate baseball and left Betancourt on the bench more often. Nevermind that his WAR ranked him among the least valuable players in baseball.

That leaves the Royals with Chris Getz assuming the everyday second baseman job right now, and he’s running with it. He’s doing just what he needs to do, and that’s be okay. He’s hitting alright. He’s fielding alright. He’s not hurting anything. He’s the equivalent of oatmeal for breakfast. Sure you’d like the stack of pancakes, the bacon and eggs, but oatmeal, well, it’ll hold you over. My gut is to be upset about his playing time, but he’s effectively inert right now, and given the struggles of other players, Getz doesn’t deserve my complaints.

Now, it’s a waiting game to see when (if?) the Royals will call up Johnny Giavotella. Yes, he’s struggled in the majors so far, but the Royals haven’t committed much energy to finding out if their second round pick from 2008 can adjust and learn at the major league level. Maybe he never pans out, but what do they have to lose right now in the middle of August? I think that if they can give Betancourt TWO stints in Kansas City and can stick with Getz through the first mediocre 700 plate appearances of his Royals career, then they can at least let Giavotella have more than 260 to show that he might be able to handle the job.

Regardless, our best wishes to Betancourt. We’ll always remember the magic grand slam season of 2010, the sideways one-handed popup flubs and the statement “plus hands and plus hands“.

The Royals just had a decent road trip but still came away with a loss on Sunday, so the Royalman Report tried to hearken back to better days, then tried to come up with how to bring those good days back.

We talked with our own Kevin Scobee of Kings of Kauffman about the Royals hints about converting some relievers into starters. The conversation led to talking about Luke Hochevar and what’s gone wrong, Kyle Zimmer and what’s going right and what attributes of some relievers work best if they were asked to become starters.

We also talked about Billy Butler‘s power surge in 2012 and marveled at his consistency even in the middle of a breakout. Then we set our sights on Steve Balboni‘s record – and wallowed in the fact that we’re still Royals fans, left behind while other small market teams challenge for playoff spots. Year Six…

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals former player Mike Sweeney (right) celebrates with George Brett (left) after a home run during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Recently, there’s been some discussion on the Kansas City Baseball Vault about these sorts of matters. We’ve discussed what four players would comprise a Royals Mt. Rushmore. Our latest episode considered the case of Joe Randa and others as potential members of the Royals Hall of Fame.

The players who’ve already been elected have solid cases. Ranking them by bWAR makes Cookie Rojas (5.4) the most suspect of Royals Hall of Famers, but he also played during some of the Royals first winning seasons and made four All-Star teams as a Royal.

So what makes a player worthy of his team’s hall of fame? Number help, and someone in the top five all time would be a shoo-in, but what about the fringe cases? What about the group of players who played after George Brett retired? Players like Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran have good numbers in the years when they were Royals, but Dye’s best years were with the White Sox. Damon was a key figure in the Red Sox 2004 World Series season. Beltran hasn’t been in a Royals uniform in nearly a decade. They also played on teams that didn’t win a lot of games and obviously didn’t make a playoff appearance.

Does that discount the efforts of Mike Sweeney, who played in more games as a Royal than Royals Hall of Famers John Mayberry and Freddie Patek? Does never making the playoffs make Randa, who’s seventh all time as a Royal in base hits, an easy no?

Also, does it matter that a player like Randa wasn’t the key player on those teams?

Then, how do you rank someone like David Cone, who only threw 448.1 innings as a Royal but is one of three Royals to win a Cy Young Award?

So many questions.

To me, numbers matter and a player who put up good ones as a Royal should get consideration. To an extent, tenure matters too. A player is better off being more recognizable as a Royal than a member of another team. Mayberry is more known for his strong years as a Royal than those as a Blue Jay.

That makes the cases for Damon, Dye and Beltran pretty tough to make. They had the numbers, but most merely doff their cap at their Royals years, while their time on other teams stand out. What, then, happens if Damon, with over 2700 career base hits, were to make the National Baseball Hall of Fame? Can a team have a player start their career with them, spend years in the organization and on the team and then make the Hall but not their own team’s?

Here are some other cases that interest me:

Charlie Leibrandt spent time in a Royals uniform from 1984 to 1989, accumulating 21.5 WAR in 1257 innings. That’s more WAR than Paul Splittorff, more innings than Steve Busby. Leibrandt also made two strong starts in the 1985 World Series after finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting that season. He was never a star, but was a solid starter in his time.

Mike Sweeney finished his career as a Royal with the same on base percentage as George Brett, though in less than half as many games. Still, in the late-90s and early 2000s, Sweeney was a premier slugger in the AL. After trying to keep his career going with the Mariners, A’s and Phillies, he’s still recognizable as a Royal first. He’s always been active in the community and well-liked. Based on that, he’s the obvious next choice to be inducted, but the teams he played on were rarely any good. Is a good player on a crummy team worthy of such recognition? Probably so, but I’d listen to someone who had a strong argument against it.

Danny Tartabull spent just five years with the Royals but ended with the highest OPS+ of any Royal with significant playing time. He drove in 100 runs three times in those five seasons, surpassing 30 homers twice as well. Does playing on teams where he was overshadowed by Brett and Bo Jackson impact his standing in franchise history? It shouldn’t, but it does.

David DeJesus was solid in his Royals career, but never a star. He never excelled in any offensive category, but simply got on base, hit the ball and played adequate defense. He just happened to stick it out with the Royals long enough to end up in the top ten of multiple offensive categories, but he never made an All-Star game and never considered much of a star, but his ranks within the franchise’s history look impressive relatively. He had more WAR than Damon (though in two more seasons).

What about Mike Macfarlane, a solid catcher and often one of the few power threats in some weak Kansas City lineups? What about Tom Gordon, who is more recognizable as a member of the Red Sox, but who threw more innings than Royals Hall of Famers Jeff Montgomery and Dan Quisenberry (and nearly as much WAR as Busby)? What do you do about Zack Greinke when he retires? He’s probably not signing back with the Royals, but only Kevin Appier, Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza (all of whom had more than 500 innings as Royals) have more pitching WAR than Greinke.

You don’t want to let just anybody in, but at the same time, there could be a huge gap in potential inductees given the lean years since the early-90s. I see some merit in going after Damon, Dye and Beltran, though, because for a time, they comprised the most talented outfield in baseball, gave hope for a resurgence and are always in the minds of Royals fans. They have a lasting impact on the organization, for their on-field contributions as well as their historical significance within team history (even if it’s a painful significance).

That trio and Sweeney should have a spot one of these days.

Just for fun, I made a list of some potential inductees, ranked them by WAR as a Royal and included the amount of time they spent with the team and their number of plate appearances or innings pitched: Players in italics are already inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

August 7, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits two run homer against the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

In the last couple of years, Butler’s gotten a bad  rap. He’s always been a good contact hitter and one of the best at hitting doubles. His size, though, suggested that he should be able to hit for more power. Because he wasn’t, a group of fans would perk up if he went into any slump, however brief, and state that Butler was an overrated player and that anyone could do his job as designated hitter.

It’s for that reason that I love writing about Billy Butler.

Truth is that yes, he does look like a player who should be able to knock out 30 homers year in and year out. It’s just never happened before.

Earlier this season, Butler was showing strong power numbers. At the All-Star break, he was a legitimate option to join the American League home run derby team (and infamously did not get selected). In the past week, he’s set a new career high in homers in a season, and there’s plenty of 2012 to go.

So the thought turns, as it often does, to the question of chasing down the Royals franchise home run record. Perhaps just as disappointing as the Royals 27 year playoff drought is the fact that no current major league franchise has a home run record lower than the Royals 36. Steve Balboni‘s record has stood since 1985, and really hasn’t been approached very often. The Royals haven’t even had a player hit 30 homers since Jermaine Dye‘s 33 in 2000.

Where’s Butler stand in that chase?

Before tonight’s game against the Orioles, Butler has 23 homers in 111 games. He’s working on a pace of one homer per every 20.3 plate appearances.

If he plays in every game left on the schedule (50), that pace would give him 33 homers in 2012, which should put a lot of doubters to rest (especially since his walk rate and strike out rates are better than league average and he’s batting .300).

To reach 37 homers and beat Balboni’s record, he’ll have to homer once every 15 plate appearances or every 13.5 at bats. That’s not outrageous, but it’s also a much greater pace than his current one. To reach 40 homers, he’ll have to homer about once every 12 plate appearances or about every 11th at bat. That’s a Ruthian pace, so 40 homers are probably out of reach.

Thirty homers is easily in reach and I’d say very likely to happen. Balboni’s record is pretty safe – though Butler’s always had bigger power numbers in the second half through his career, so it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Forty homers would be fun and all, but is a very unlikely feat this season.

Freddie Patek was a fixture in the middle of the infield during some of the most successful days in Royals history. The diminutive shortstop later earned election to the Royals Hall of Fame and was our first guest on the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Thursday. He talked about his heyday with the Royals, playing the game the right way, playing for Whitey Herzog and Ewing Kauffman and overcoming the stigma of being a small player.

Then we talked with Storm Chaser’s outfielder David Lough as he lounged poolside on Omaha’s day off. He noted that he’s working on using his speed more this season, excited to be in the hunt for another Pacific Coast League championship. He then handed the phone off to his roommate, second baseman Johnny Giavotella, who talked about working back from hip surgery early in the year, his hot streak in July and the things he’s working on defensively. He also seemed to put out a challenge to his other roommate Anthony Seratelli for the home run lead in the apartment (Giavotella has 10, Seratelli has 16 this year).

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

This should be a fun show.

We’ll talk with Freddie Patek, a Royals Hall of Famer, three-time All-Star and key component to some of the best Royals teams in franchise history.

Sticking with the short middle infielder motif, we’ll also talk with Johnny Giavotella about his recovery from hip surgery in the offseason, his hot bat in July, and working his way back to the big leagues. Also, we’ll have Gio’s roommate, outfielder David Lough to talk about working through an organization that has such a crowded bunch of outfielders and a second run at the Pacific Coast League championship.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

Herrera has the changeup armed and ready. Batters beware. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

In Tuesday’s win over the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera came in to finish the seventh inning and stayed in for the eighth. The first batter he faced was Alexei Ramirez. Herrera opened up with three 99 mph fastballs before unleashing his best pitch – after a foul ball he threw an 86 mph changeup that tumbled down and in for a swinging strikeout.

Herrera rocketed through the Royals system last year as a 21-year-old, opening in High A and finishing as a September callup. He pitched well this spring and earned a spot in the bullpen. Since, he’s put up 58 innings, with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s struck out 56 batters while walking just 12.

Movement of Kelvin Herrera's changeup (TexasLeaguers.com)

A big part of that is that he’s armed with a fastball that averages 97 mph which is difficult to catch up to for even the best hitters, but his changeup is what really stands out.

You can see that in the video below at the 22 second mark where the ball falls away from John Jaso and he catches it on the end of the bat, shattering the barrel:

According to TexasLeaguers.com, Herrera throws the changeup 21.8% of the time and gets it over for a strike almost 75% of the time. Moreover, it results in a swing and a miss more than a quarter of the time. In those moments when the batter does make contact, it turns into a ground ball an astounding 78.6% of the time.

Herrera's changeup location vs. LHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He throws the pitch at nearly the same rate to right-handed batters (21%) as he does left-handed batters (25.8%), and it settles in the same area of the strike zone with regularity. It dives down and in on righties and floats away from lefties. As a result, his splits look even, with neither handed batter being able to do much against him at all. That helps his value as a pitcher since he can be trusted to face the left-handed batters when necessary.

So this pitch 1) has a stark speed differential from his big fastball 2) has a lot of movement and is hard to hit and 3) when it is hit, it’s often hit on the ground.

That’s a winning recipe.

The numbers suggest that not only is Herrera’s changeup effective – it’d be hard to argue that it wasn’t just by watching film alone – but it’s the fifth most valuable changeup in baseball among pitchers with 50 IP or more and one of the most valuable overall. Batters have a .369 OPS when he’s thrown the changeup.

Herrera's changeup location vs. RHB in 2012 (Fangraphs heat map)

He’s willing to throw it in nearly any count, though it’s frequently used with two strikes and hardly used for the first pitch of an at bat. What’s interesting is that he’s comfortable throwing the changeup in the middle of a count with two balls and while he’s thrown the change in three ball counts just 11 times total all season, nine of those were in full counts. How’d you like to be that batter, geared up for triple digit heat in a full count and have to adjust to the 86 mph change that falls off the table? Can’t imagine that’s a lot of fun at all. Half of his strikeouts have been on changeups, even though he throws them less frequently than the fastball with two strikes.

Herrera primarily relies on fastballs and changeups to get through his innings, only throwing a curve about 8% of the time. As a reliever, that’s okay because both pitches are so strong he can use them regularly in shorter outings. So far this year, he’s faced more than nine batters one time when he faced 10 Pirates, so he isn’t getting through a lineup more than once. I bring this up because there are calls to make Herrera a starter some time in the future. His stuff warrants the question, though there are concerns.

He missed large chunks of time in the minors due to injury (he appeared in 9 games combined in 2009 and 2010) which bring his durability in a rotation into question. Once moved into the bullpen full time starting last year, he took off. He turns 23 on the last day of 2012, though, so the Royals could take a look if they wanted to – though it’s probably best to take what he can do now at maximum effort and wield it when necessary as a traditional fireman of sorts. With Greg Holland assuming the closer’s role, Herrera’s ability to get strikeouts and ground balls makes him an ideal candidate out of the bullpen to come in during a jam. He doesn’t walk many at all either. He has more value as a starter, but if he gets hurt and ends up being ineffective, what value is there in that?

No matter what his role ultimately turns out to be, Herrera’s changeup will continue to wreak havoc on American League batters.

–A week after this article, FanGraphs ended up showing a fun .gif of Herrera’s changeup with some updated stats on its effectiveness.

*(All pitch selection numbers are based off of the figures on TexasLeaguers.com as of 11 p.m. August 7.)

On today’s episode, I talked with host John Ackeren about the Royals, their recent moves, who’s on the hot seat, as well as some of the minor league talent still making its way up the pipeline. Also on the show are Michael Castillo of our USC site Reign of Troy and Josh Lobdell of Detroit Jock City.

FanSided Radio is geared towards you, the sports fanatic. We bring you the shows and content you are looking for in sports podcasts. FanSided Radio is your way to listen to great sports talk, whenever you want to listen!

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

This is my first post in nearly two months.  A lot of things have come up in the past two months that have taken my attention away from my articles, but now I’m back and ready to focus on my posts.  At this point in the season, not many things have gone right, however there are still a few interesting developments I’d like to see play out over the course of the next two months.

The first thing I’d like to see is Billy Butler give a nice run towards breaking Steve Balboni‘s single season record of 36 home runs.  With the juiced ball and steroid era, it was commonplace for teams to have multiple players with 30 and 40 home run seasons.  The Royals have remained quiet with the long ball and at 27 years and counting no one has surpassed Balboni’s 36 home runs in 1985.  I’m aware Butler only has 20 home runs through Sunday’s game but with a few hot streaks here and there it is possible for him to challenge the record.

The next thing I’d like to see is Greg Holland really stake a claim to the closer’s role as we head into next season.  Now I’ll admit I’ve been one of the biggest Holland advocates for the past two years.  I really like his makeup and his electric stuff, but I truly believe he could be a very dominate closer for the Royals for at least the next few years.

It’s been really nice to see Mike Moustakas carry over his hot September from last season into this year.  It’s been an even better surprise to see how well he has played defensively at third base.  On the other side of the diamond has been Eric Hosmer, who has been a little different story than Moose.  Hosmer still has time this season to get things in gear and put together a respectable season, although his time will be running out very soon.  It would certainly make me feel a bit more at ease going into the off season with Hosmer raking over the last several weeks of the season.

The last thing I’d like to see the rest of the way is the arrival of the most talked about prospect in all of baseball, Wil Myers.  Now it may be possible the Royals decide to keep Myers down until next year, but that will anger a lot, if not all, of the fan base.  I’d love to see what Wil can do the rest of the way if he gets the call.  It will, at least, add a little bit of suspense for the final two months to see if he gets promoted to Kansas City.  We will just have to wait and see what the front office decides to do, as he may end up waiting until next May to finally put on a Major League uniform.

I hope to see a few of these stories develop into realization.  These are some things that keep me watching even in the dog days of the season when the team is struggling to stay out of the basement in the AL Central.  What are some other interesting topics fans are looking forward to the rest of the season?  I’d love to hear what others are thinking about.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

He’s also a left-handed pitcher, a commodity during the playoff push.

And the Royals let him go for nothing. The Giants put in a waiver claim and the Royals didn’t seek out a trade. It’s not clear if they passed him through waivers and simply let the Giants have him or if they made some mistake in the waiver process that allowed him to be claimed for nothing, but what is clear is that he’s now a San Francisco Giant.

There were questions about his attitude before the year, and part of why he was let go by the Twins, but even with that, to get nothing for him is confusing. It would also be odd considering that they could have traded him to anybody a week ago without any waiver complications involved. Surely there would have been a taker, right? If someone was interested enough to claim him, they’d likely be interested enough to give cash or a player to be named later, at least, I’d imagine.

Francisley Bueno will take his spot in the bullpen. He’s thrown 4.2 innings for Kansas City this year with a 3.86 ERA.

Following a sweep-saving, extra-innings win by the Royals over the Rangers witnessed by the Royalmen from a Kauffman Stadium suite, we talked about Ned Yost’s ultamatum and the DFA’ing of Yuniesky Betancourt and the firing of Doug Sisson. Seems that the entire team is fixed now, right? Might’ve been a bit of sarcasm there. Regardless, we talked about it all and caught up with the rest of the minor leagues and reset several other storylines around the team.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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We’ve talked a lot about what the Royals need to be doing this year, and or a while, they showed some signs of life after sitting Yuniesky Betancourt and Jeff Francoeur. We’ll talk about those changes and what they might signal the rest of the year and carrying over into next year.

Then we took a road trip to Kauffman Stadium to see this afternoon’s game – and on the way back, the Royals designated Betancourt for assignment and called up Tony Abreu.

We’ll start up early at 5:30 p.m. tonight, so be sure to check in with that in mind.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

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Thus ends a notorious period of questionable defense, low on base percentages and general scorn from fans. Betancourt was signed this offseason to a $2 million contract for 2012 with the goal of using him as a utility player.

To fill his spot, the Royals called up Tony Abreu, who played shortstop mostly in Omaha. He’s hitting .322/.347/.492 as a Storm Chaser in 453 plate appearances.

After the game, Ned Yost said that Betancourt was wanting more playing time and his attitude wasn’t fitting in the locker room.

His replacement will be organizational stalwart Rusty Kuntz, himself an outfield defensive coach in the organization and the man who worked primarily with Alex Gordon when he converted to left field in Omaha. Gordon won a Gold Glove in left last year, of course.

So that’s the news update.

Pardon me if this seems just too snarky, even for a Royals fan, but this is the kind of “deck chairs on the Titanic” kind of move that teams love to do. It’s not just the Royals, it’s sports. Sure, some of these little things do matter, but really, how consequential is a first base coach? Yes, the Royals stunk it up on the bases in 2012, especially early, but does one coaching change make that big of a difference? Are the Royals suddenly or even gradually going to make better decisions in the heat of the moment on the basepaths?

The Royals said that a change was warranted, and sure, maybe it was. I’m not really upset that Sisson is gone. I couldn’t grade the abilities of one baserunning coach over another. There’s not really a coaching WAR stat out there to try to quantify things. The Royals overall are better than average in total stolen bases, but they’ve seen their share of mistakes. I don’t know how much that goes onto Sisson versus placing the blame on the players. The coach prepares, the players execute.

I don’t want to misrepresent the Royals position on the move. I’m not suggesting that they think firing Doug Sisson makes this team a playoff contender right now and that all the problems are solved.

But my hunch, after watching this team for so long, is that they see this sort of move as doing something when it really looks more like a move for the move’s sake. They can say they did something to turn the bad play around, when really it doesn’t do anything.

Maybe there’s more to it and Sisson just wasn’t meshing with the rest of the staff. I don’t know. Hitting coaches and pitching coaches get a lot of credit for turning players around or getting the best out of them, but their influence is overstated at the big league levels. I’d guess that a very good player like Robinson Cano would be a very good hitter if his hitting coach were Kevin Seitzer or Groucho Marx. Placing blame, giving credit, these are difficult things to do fairly. Greg Schaum pointed out a contradiction: if Kuntz gets credit for turning around Gordon, does he take the blame for Wil Myers (apparently) not being ready as an outfielder? That’s who’s been working with him in the minors this whole time.

In the big picture, I don’t think it matters who’s coaching first, but it would then follow that such a move wouldn’t be necessary either. As I said before, this is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. But if the Royals win their next 50 games, prepare for Rusty Kuntz night at the K.

While we’d planned to talk to former Royal Joe Randa on the most recent Vault, we had problems getting ahold of him. No matter. We got a chance to evaluate his place in Royals history and questioned whether he should go into the Royals Hall of Fame which led to a discussion of who might end up in the team Hall of Fame after so many lean years. The most interesting case we brought up was David Glass – does the owner go into the Royals Hall of Fame or not?

We talked about the Jonathan Broxton trade and whether there’s such a thing as the “Closer’s Mentality”.

Finally, we talked about Luis Mendoza and just what the heck he’s doing this year to be the best starter on the Royals and dug into what the waiver trade deadline really means. It was a fun discussion.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On this show, we’ll talk with former Royal “The Joker” Joe Randa about his time with the Royals, being part of an offensive team with crummy pitching, and his standing in the history of the Royals franchise.

We’ll also cover the trade deadline, Luis Mendoza‘s surprisingly solid year and look around the minors.

It all starts at a special time of 6:30 p.m. CST (due to Olympics coverage) on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area. 

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

The move did leave the Royals without a designated pitcher to shut the door in the ninth – until later in the day when Ned Yost named Greg Holland the next closer.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) pitches during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Holland had a great 2011 but his 2012 has been up and down. Early in the year he dealt with a rib injury that put him on the disabled list. Since returning, he’s worked his ERA down to more palatable levels, though his walk rate is higher than last year’s 2.9 BB/9 at 5.2 BB/9. He’s given up more hits, too, but after last year’s 5.6 H/9, it’s hard for any pitcher to repeat that stellar number.

He’s seemed to be the heir apparent to Broxton’s closers role since it became clear that Broxton was on the trading block. His strikeout ability should allow him to get out of jams with less panic than Broxton’s save attempts, though the peripheral numbers are still scary. What hits he has given up this year may be in part due to his inducing more ground balls (which are more likely to sneak through for hits than a fly ball). His .388 BABIP on the year supports that thought.

If Holland falters, Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera are favorites to step in.

Another option – though he’s a long shot – is Jeremy Jeffress, who was recalled from Omaha to fill Broxton’s roster spot. In two appearances at the big league level this year, Jeffress gave up four hits and walked two, though he managed to scatter those runners in such a way that none scored. Those appearances came in the first homestand of the year.

Since, he’s put up 58 innings in Omaha with a 4.97 ERA. He’s struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings in Triple A, which is typical for him, but his ERA is a bit deceiving, as he’s given up far less walks than is the norm. In his minor league career, Jeffress had a walk rate of 5.7 BB/9 before 2012. His current rate is 3.9 BB/9 right now, which is encouraging. He features a fastball that regularly sits in the upper 90s (and regularly hits triple digits) and a curveball that can be really nasty when he has command of it. If he can get it together, he’ll make an already solid-looking return for Zack Greinke in 2010 look that much better.

Hope springs eternal.  In the chest of all long suffering fans beats an optimistic heart, one that yearns for his or her team to succeed and looks forward to the day when they can celebrate the same championship they’ve watched others enjoy for years.  Occasionally, there will be substance behind the hope and evidence that this year could be different, this could be the year we finally break through.

As you know, this season was “Our Time” and many of us believed 2012 would mark a turning point toward respectability.  Many of the talented young players we’ve watched growing up in the best farm system in baseball were finally arriving in the major leagues and Dayton Moore’s plan was coming together.  If you’ll admit it, I bet you were thinking the Royals would play well this year.  Few of us believed they were playoff bound in 2012, but almost all of us were confident other teams would not be looking past KC this season.

Then something happened.  I’m not sure if any of us know exactly what happened, but something happened.  The Royals play in a weak division which allowed them to remain competitive with a mediocre record and this motivated us to hold onto hope.  But now, only the most die-hard fan still believes the Royals have a shot at the playoffs.  Oh yes, we all still root for them and cheer them on and sit on the edge of our seats shouting for another victory…  but we’ve become realists and we know we won’t be watching the boys in blue this October.  Again.

When did this happen?  When exactly did the Royals 2012 season go off the rails?  If could have been at any one of many twists and turns in the road, and each of us might point toward a different event that caused it.  Here are a few candidates for the prime pothole that caused the Royals train to jump the track:

Pick a Date:  Injuries – There have been so many devastating injuries that have impacted the Royals that I can’t select one date.  At the major league level, the Royals lost Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain for approximately the first half of the season.  Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria have undergone Tommy John surgery.  Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have been on-again and off-again with various injuries.  Other Royals have likely played hurt because the team couldn’t afford to lose another player.  Is it possible that one of these injuries could have cut the cord on the Royals’ season?

March 26:  Part of the excitement about 2012 surrounded the youth movement in KC.   The decision to leave Johnny Giavotella in Omaha and play a platoon of Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz probably wasn’t the key factor that derailed the Royals season, but I would say it was a telling sign of things to come and questionable decisions that would be made by the Royals brass.

Jonathan Broxton's April 11 meltdown is one of the candidates when looking for the reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April 11:  Broxton’s first meltdown, and it was a classic.  Two walks, two hit-by-pitches, two runs scored, Broxton’s first blown save of the year, and the A’s didn’t even need a hit.  This was the first real splash of cold water I experienced following an off-season and Spring filled with hope and expectation.

April 14:  Chris Perez’s Twitter rant and victory over the Royals following an onfield melee.  I believe Perez’s tweet somehow motivated the Indians and demotivated the Royals.  This was just the 3^rd loss in the 12 consecutive loss streak and we all discovered the Royals were apparently a fragile team.  I work with an Indian fan and wow is it annoying when he defends Chris Perez, aka one of the biggest jerks in professional sports.  Here’s what Perez said on Twitter on April 14:

@chrisperez54 Huge team win tonight; time for a sweep to tell the Royals it’s not “Our Time”, it’s#TribeTime. P.S. You hit us, we hit you. Period.

April 24:  The 12^th loss of the 12 game losing streak occurred on April 24.  Many fans will point to this streak and complain that the Royals season ended almost before it began.  I have a difficult time arguing against this rather valid point, but still, the Royals fought back to within 4 games by the halfway mark, so I don’t think the streak completely derailed the season, but it certainly threw a gigantic roadblock in the way.

Eric Hosmer's season long slump is another reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE)

May 16:  Hosmer was under the Mendoza line almost by the time the first week of the season ended.  But most of us thought it was just a rough patch and he would pull out of it by mid-April.  Then we thought he’d be ok by early May, and then we thought for sure by the end of May he’d be swinging the bat well.  We were wrong.  On May 16 in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, Hosmer walked to the plate 7 times and came away with zero hits, ending the game with a .174 average.  Yost took him out of the lineup the next two days.  By this time, we all knew Hosmer’s slump had become more than just a run of bad luck, and more importantly Ned Yost knew it too.  If any of your players goes through a prolonged slump, it negatively affects the team.  But if the team’s presumed star goes through a slump that so far has lasted for more than half the season, it’s extremely difficult for the team to overcome and could be a cause for that team’s playoff hopes to go off the rails.

June 30:  The Royals had climbed to within 4 games of .500 and were starting to open some eyes across the league.  Then without warning… THUD.  The worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins, took both games of a doubleheader from the Royals, and the team hasn’t sniffed .500 ever since.

July 2:  Robinson Cano omits Billy Butler from the home run derby.  I realize that this decision by the liar Cano has nothing to do with the Royals on-field performance, but it says everything about the respect we have across the league – none.  And occasionally, lack of respect can affect your psyche, which impacts your performance, etc., etc.

Which incident do you say was the cause of the Royals season to derail, or do you point to a different event, or a combination of events?  I suppose there are still many games to play during the long baseball season, and as they say, “it’s not over ‘till it’s over.”  But no matter what happens, I know “the Royals will get ‘em next year!”

The deal is still pending a physical.

The Royals had been trying to move Broxton, the most valuable trade chip they had (that they’d made available) and various suitors were talking with them, but the Reds add him to their already strong bullpen.

Broxton saved 23 games in 27 opportunities, though his walk rate and strikeout rate haven’t been stellar, and some predict a regression in his performance. Regardless, his ERA is 2.27 after 35.2 innings. This was a big part of why the Royals signed him this offseason to a one-year deal – to let him rebuild his value after injury-plagued years in Los Angeles and to potentially trade him for value at the deadline.

Early reports suggest that J.C. Sulbaran, a right-handed pitcher at Double A, is the return for Broxton. He was a 30th round pick in 2008 and high school teammate of Eric Hosmer. There may be more in the deal, as well. Here’s a brief scouting report on Sulbaran, who was an All-Star in the Southern League. The Royals also got left-handed reliever Donnie Joseph, who was in Triple A and another high strikeout pitcher.

With his departure, the Royals will likely put Greg Holland in as the closer, though Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow could be options. All three were potential fits for the role in spring training when Joakim Soria went on the DL with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery.

To get an update on the Tribe, I exchanged some questions with Lewie Pollis, the editor of Wahoo’s On First, FanSided’s Cleveland Indians site:

The Indians are in that awkward spot where they’re close enough to make a move and try to hang in the race, but could also read the writing on the wall and start selling. What do you want them to do?

The best trade the Indians could make right now would be one that improves their chances of winning now but is also focused on 2013 and 2014. Just based on the state of the roster and the high demand for premium closers, it would make a lot of sense to trade Chris Perez for a young, cost-controlled outfielder or first baseman (my first choice is Peter Bourjos).

We don’t have any desirable spare parts whose losses wouldn’t haunt us next year and we’re not really in a position to make a big upgrade. So really it’s more a matter of finding a team whose strengths and weaknesses match up with ours than of “buying” or “selling.”

There had been rumors of Justin Masterson being on the block as well as Chris Perez and even Shin Soo-Choo. What return would the Indians be after to reload the system’s talent pool?

For Perez, it would be a young, cost-controlled hitter who we can plug into our lineup right now. I don’t have a specific deal in mind for Choo or Masterson, but I would demand a package of high-ceiling MLB-ready impact talent. Even if we’re punting 2012, we’re still supposed to contend in 2013; it’s hard to imagine us making a serious run at the playoffs without our ace, and even if Choo wasn’t a star (which he is) we have no one else who can play right field every day.

Perez? If you can find a good deal, go ahead and pull the trigger. Vinnie Pestano can step in for the ninth inning. But selling off guys like Choo and Masterson doesn’t make sense. Unless we’re totally blowing it up and starting another rebuilding cycle, they’re probably worth more to us than they would be to another team.

What’s the organization saying about the path of Francisco Lindor and are fans hoping to see him rise quickly or to demonstrate he’s mastered each level before being bumped up?

They’re in no hurry. Asdrubal Cabrera is signed through 2014 so there’s no immediate need for a shortstop, and Lindor is only 18 years old. I’m not exactly sure how they’ll handle things as he rises through the minors—a lot can happen between Single-A and The Show, and that will probably become clearer in the next year or two. Most Tribe fans seem happy just salivating over his potential and aren’t too worried about rushing him through the system.

The Royals have been able to score some runs in their three series against Cleveland this year. Who do you want the staff to pitch around most?

Billy Butler. You guys have a lot of promising young bats, but none of them scare me like Butler. Any chance he can come down with a completely benign and painless injury that will keep him out of action until the end of the series?

On that note, who’s taking the mound this series, and what do you think they’ll do this time around?

First up is Derek Lowe (5.09 ERA, 4.69 SIERA), and I don’t think many Tribe fans are looking forward to that one. He doesn’t strike anyone out (seriously, he has a 3.1 K/9 rate) so he depends on inducing weak grounders with his sinker. It worked out great for the first month or so, but he’s been rocked to the tune of an 8.07 ERA in his last 11 starts (you read that right—this is a long slump). Much as I hate to say it, he hasn’t given us any reason to expect an improvement this time out.

Next is Zach McAllister (3.18 ERA, 3.62 SIERA), who (with apologies to Masterson) has been the Tribe’s best pitcher this year. After taking more of a pitch-to-contact approach in the minors he’s suddenly remembered how to strike batters out. He tends to be fairly homer prone (he gives up a lot of fly balls) and for what it’s worth he’s already allowed 10 unearned runs in 62.1 innings, but he’s the closest thing we have to a stopper right now. Pencil the Tribe in for a win when he pitches.

In the series finale you’ll draw Josh Tomlin (5.87 ERA, 4.59 SIERA). He’s what I like to call inherently inconsistent: he’s a soft-tossing pitch-to-contact hurler who gives up a ton of fly balls. Sometimes he makes it work, but since his success is based on so many things going right it’s very easy for his outings to end poorly. Get ready to swing because you’re not going to walk (he’s given up only one free pass in July), but the plus side for Kansas City is that you can swing for the fences. A bunch of good young hitters like the Royals will probably be able to tee off.

My responses to Lewie’s questions are posted at Wahoo’s On First.

And as the Royals fade into oblivion yet again, there are rumors (aren’t there always?) that Dayton Moore is in talks with just about every team, about every player, as the trade deadline approaches. Of course, with those rumors always comes the caveat that the Royals need to be compelled to trade any of their players.

Yeah, because as this roster is currently constructed, contention is imminent, and trading players would negatively affect the future.

Aside from the obvious reasons to not hang on to a mostly untalented roster, there’s a stiff breeze blowing from the south from a franchise that’s wide-open for trading business, and looks intent on sending everything packing that’s not bolted firmly to the floor.

Jeff Luhnow took over the Houston Astros’ GM position in December – leaving the Cardinals organization and being a major player in their rising success over the past few years – and immediately became the (new) jewel of the saber-community eye. He interviewed Keith Law. He hired Mike Fast.* He immediately started unloading his over-valued, over-priced players nearing the end of their contracts.

*An admitted Royals fan. Poor guy.

And as this season’s trade deadline is nearing, the Astros have traded their closer (ahem), their first baseman, their third baseman, and their best starting pitcher. What each deal brought in return doesn’t matter as much as the reasons for doing so.

The Astros are a bad team, and holding on to players who a) can easily be replaced by a minor leaguer (Chris Johnson) b) serve little purpose on a losing ball club (Brett Myers) or c) just aren’t that good anymore past their recognizable name, would be a huge mistake (Carlos Lee). Huge.

Granted, where the Astros are in their process of rebuilding is (presumably, at least in narrative) different than where the Royals currently are in theirs. But the correlation between each of those causes for trades with Houston and Luhnow serves as a stark reminder of the missteps so far with Dayton Moore during his regime, and ones that hopefully he’s not repeating as the clock ends the deadline tomorrow.

A)   Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt: two players currently on the roster that can, and most assuredly would, be more than adequately replaced by younger, cheaper players currently in Triple-A. Of course, at this point, another team would have to want either of these players, and there’s little reason to think any objective mind would care to have Francoeur wounded-giraffing his way around their outfield and swinging at everything that moves at the plate, or Betancourt Betancourting everywhere.

B)   Jonathan Broxton, or, Joakim Soria redux: the “closer” is a largely overrated role on a pitching staff anyway, but especially one on a regime that has yet to finish a season less than 10 games under .500. There’s no place for Broxton on this team anymore, given how bad that been over the past month-plus, and now would be the ideal time to find out if Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, or Kelvin Herrera can step in to fill the role in order to prepare for next season.

C)   Jeff Francoeur, again: this one is just too easy.  Francoeur at this point in his career is quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball. His negative 1.7 fWAR is the lowest in the major leagues, and there’s no amount of contrived leadership or naked batting practice that can make up for that. The contract offered to Francoeur was a mistake then, and remains a beacon for the reason teams should never pay for a player coming off a career year, before his positional market establishes. Dayton Moore beat the market to the punch when he signed Francoeur to his 2 year, $13MM deal, and the market punched back with a right-hook from hell.

If the Royals really wanted to be daring they would take this opportunity of over-valued relievers, and float the idea of a Broxton-plus package that consisted of both he and one of the other very cheap, and very young, bullpen arms.

Losing Holland, Collins, Herrera, or Crow could be a tough pill to swallow simply from a salary stand point, but there’s few other players currently on the roster that the Royals could flip in exchange for actual talent, and not have it be a major setback to the overall goal.

No matter the case, whether the Royals choose to be daring or practical as the final hours of the deadline approach, they cannot afford to stand-pat. Patience in The Process has been preached each year at this time, and because of that, moves that could have made a dramatic impact on the roster haven’t been done.

For this season, one in which more questions were raised than answers given, it would be nice if the Royals took a page out of the Houston playbook and made a concerted effort to trade everyone that doesn’t look to figure into the 2013 roster plans.

The Good

Well, um, there’s…well there’s…and there’s…

Billy Butler was named AL Player of the Week? Yeah, I guess that works. In his last 21 games Butler has been – well he’s been Billy Butler.

If it weren’t for Butler (.378/.440/.561 in his last 21 games) and Alex Gordon (.352/.406/.473 in his last 21 games) there would be little reason to watch the Royals on a nightly basis. Heck, probably even a weekly basis.

The Bad

Where’s a good place to start? The Royals have lost 21 of their last 27 games and the optimizing that was brewing at the start of June, has quickly faded back to the normal KC-fan despondence. The Twins, whom all Royals fans got pleasure in (finally) being able to mock to start the season, have climbed ahead of the Royals in the standings by slugging their way to victories despite missing Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe for a handful of games.

Yes, Buddy Bell was right.

Is there anything to look forward to? Heck, who knows? The quick answer would be “yes” because with each passing day the Royals are that much closer to calling up Wil Myers, but because that roster move has been inexplicably put-off for over a month now, it’s more likely that it won’t happen until September.

The Royals keep using the argument that a spot needs to be created for Myers before he can make his trek to Kansas City, but when the player he’s replacing is Jeff Francoeur, that would be like a TV network saying they just can’t find a place for the new Louis C.K. pilot because they already have ‘Whitney’ in that time slot. A change is a necessity, not a burden.

The Upcoming

The Royals next six games are against a Cleveland team that’s looking to unload some of its veteran, high-cost players, and a Texas team that’s likely to come into Kauffman Stadium and hit 27 homeruns in their three-game set.

So, a mid-summer home stand watching an (again) basement dwelling team on a massive losing stretch? That sounds super fun.

After a sweep by the Seattle Mariners and a “crap for crap” trade, the Dog Days of the Royals season are definitely here.

Making no attempt to put lipstick on this pig, Troy and Chris talked about the doldrums the team is in and then during the second segment, were pleased to talk to a future Royal (we hope) Jason Adam of the Wilmington Blue Rocks.

Jason talked to us about being the subject of trade rumors, his development as a pitcher (and velocity), his favorite parks to play in and even gave us a little impression of his favorite vendor at Blue Rocks stadium.

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That puts Jonathan Broxton in the crosshairs for some teams.

Jim Bowden reported that the Giants had interest in Broxton and past reports indicated that they may have had scouts in Omaha to look at potential add-ons.

Another team has surfaced as well. The Rangers are looking at Broxton as well, according to Jon Heyman. Broxton would serve as a setup man for Joe Nathan if a trade were finalized.

Obviously, having more than one team interested increases the likelihood that Broxton will be moved at some point before Tuesday’s deadline. Of the main names known as available – Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Mijares and Broxton – the Royals closer is having the most success recently, which sticks in the minds of front offices sometimes.

A deal with the Rangers might – might - be closer, though, as Bob Dutton tweeted that the Royals were interested in Rangers pitching prospect Justin Grimm, a 5th rounder in 2010 who made his major league debut this season at the age of 23. He’s said to have a plus curve and sinker plus is working on a changeup. He was an All-Star in the Texas League this year and earned a promotion to Triple A after 80 innings for Frisco in Double A where he had a 1.80 ERA and a 68/14 K/BB ratio.

The Rangers are loaded with pitching prospects and can use them to go get the pieces they want. Last year, they traded Joe Wieland and Robert Erlin to get Mike Adams as a setup man, so this kind of deal isn’t out of the question. Mutual interest reported and names being named is a good thing if you’re in the Trade Broxton camp.

It’s all speculation for now, though. Talks may heat up or fizzle out on Monday. That’s the intrigue of the trade deadline.

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Why do the Royals stink right now? How do we fix it? What to do?

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(more…)

Today, I’ll try to do the same thing, but with those players the Royals have acquired over the years at the deadline. In some ways, it’s a difficult thing to do, as the Royals didn’t execute many trades at the deadline when they were in their heyday, usually haven’t been buyers at the deadline and the players they’ve traded away weren’t always the kind to inspire a blockbuster.

So the disclaimer on this one is that things could get ugly.

Another reminder that the trade deadline was originally June 15 up until 1986 when it was moved to the end of July. That rule applies in a couple of these situations.

C – Lucas May (2010)

On July 28, 2010, the Royals turned Scott Podsednik into a couple of intriguing prospects. Podsednik was having a surprising resurgence at the top of the Royals batting order. The Dodgers were in the hunt and looking for outfield help.

May was joined with Elisaul Pimentel in the deal. A converted shortstop, May was one of the top catching prospects in the Dodgers system and was hitting well in Triple A at the time. May ended up playing in 12 games for the Royals at the big league level but was mostly in Omaha after the deal. He was sold to Arizona for cash after the season and is currently in the Mets system.

1B – Ryan Shealy (2006)

At the deadline in 2006, the Royals and Rockies met up on a classic “change of scenery” deal. Shealy came over with pitcher Scott Dohmann on July 31 that year in exchange for lefty Jeremy Affeldt and right-hander Denny Bautista. Affeldt had been bounced around in various roles as part of the Royals pitching staff and nothing seemed to click for him. He also battled a persistent blister problem on his throwing hand  that always resurfaced. Bautista looked like a pitcher with promise but never developed any command to realize it.

Similarly, Shealy had been a slugger in the Rockies minor leagues but was already 26 and closing in on 27 without a real spot on the Rockies (think of him as a 2006 Clint Robinson). In two months with the Royals that year, he hit seven homers and a .280/.338/.451 line. It looked good going into 2007 and the Royals figured he’d be the everyday first baseman. He struggled and was demoted to Omaha at the end of June. He didn’t resurface until September 2008 and was on his way out of the Royals organization.

2B – Cookie Rojas (1970)

After those first two, it’s nice to have the chance to highlight a very good pickup at the deadline. On June 13, 1970, the Royals sent Fred Rico to the Cardinals and got Rojas in return.

Rico played in 12 games for the inaugural Royals team in 1969. It was the only major league experience he ever had.

Rojas only made four All-Star teams as a Royal and was inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame in 1987.

SS – Neifi Perez (2001)

It’s bad enough that the Royals traded for Perez. That’s a big problem to start with – he was Yuniesky Betancourt before Yuni was Yuni. And he didn’t have any of the pop. He was positive defensively, but with an OPS+ of 64 for his career, his defensive ability only made him a replacement level player at best.

The Royals traded Jermaine Dye for him on July 25.

Ouch. (I wanted to put Jeff Keppinger here, but honestly, Neifi’s a better story.)

3B – Dean Palmer (1997)

We covered the other half of this deal, as the Royals sent the speedy Tom Goodwin to Texas for Palmer on July 25.

Palmer fit into the Royals lineup as a power hitter, and he hit nine  homers in the 49 games he spent with the Royals during the rest of the 1997 season. He was even better in 1998, hitting 34 homers in his only full season with the Royals. Palmer is one of very few Royals hitters who’ve hit 30 homers in a season and the third most in team history. He left for Detroit after becoming a free agent and played parts of five seasons with them.

OF – Gregor Blanco (2010)

When the Royals traded Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel on July 31, they got Tim Collins and Jesse Chavez as well as Blanco.

During the remainder of the 2010 season, Blanco hit 203 plate appearances and played mostly in center, adding good contact, defense and strike zone judgment to the team. There was some talk that he might end up the opening day center fielder in 2011, but the Royals signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera while also having Mitch Maier and Jarrod Dyson in the mix. Then they acquired Lorenzo Cain. Blanco was traded to Washington for cash but didn’t get back to the majors until this season, where he’s been a solid reserve for the Giants.

Also, he did this:

OF – Chip Ambres (2005)

Ambres was acquired with Juan Cedeno from Boston on July 19, 2005 for infielder Tony Graffanino. He was almost a league average outfielder that season and had 12 extra base hits. He only played 80 career games in the big leagues, including 53 for the Royals.

OF – Abraham Nunez (2004)

The Royals haven’t acquired many good outfielders at the deadline, have they? Nunez was acquired on the last day of July in 2004 for Rudy Seanez. He didn’t play in the majors after 2004 as a Royal. He and Jeff D’Amico hold the distinction of not being THAT Abraham Nunez (former Pirate, Cardinal and Phillie from 1997-2008) and not being THAT Jeff D’Amico (former Brewer, Pirate, Met and Indian from 1996-2004; the other D’Amico was part of the Kevin Appier trade in 1999).

SP – Charlie Leibrandt (1983)

The Royals sent Bob Tufts to the Reds on June 7, 1983 and got Leibrandt back. Tufts had thrown 26.2 innings for the Royals when he was traded. He never pitched for the Reds.

Leibrandt only went on to finish fifth in Cy Young voting in 1985 and threw 1257 innings from 1984 to 1989 with Kansas City. He was the starting pitcher in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, and held the Cardinals to one run in 7.2 innings to keep the Royals in position to make the historic comeback. He also had a solid start that fell apart in Game 2 but ate up 8.2 innings in that one.

RP – Stan Belinda (1993)

Belinda was an average arm in the Pirates bullpen and with the Royals in second place and four games behind on July 31, 1993, made a nice target at the deadline. In return the Pirates got Jon Lieber and Dan Miceli, both of whom went on to long careers in the big leagues. Miceli appeared in 631 games. Lieber fit the bill of a league average, middle of the rotation starter for years, making 327 starts, most with the Pirates and Cubs.

Belinda had an 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 1993 for the Royals down the stretch, though they never made up the ground to take the division. He wasn’t nearly as good in 1994 for the Royals though, and bounced around until 2000.

Other Notable Royals Trade Deadline Acquisitions:

• Jeff Keppinger (2006)
• Odalis Perez (2006)
• Kyle Davies (2007)
• Justin Huber (2004)
• Graeme Lloyd (2003)
• Jorge De La Rosa (2006)
• Will Smith (2010)
• Tim Collins (2010)
• Curt Leskanic (2003)
• Jason Grimsley (1997)
• Luis Aquino (1987)

Ryan Verdugo is back in the Omaha starting rotation and he allowed all six runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. The bullpen trio of Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Sisk, and Vin Mazzaro allowed just one hit (and no walks) over the final three innings. They combined to strike out five.

Wil Myers hit a solo homerun, but struck out with two men on base to end the game. Myers and Tony Abreu collected two hits each.

Michael Mariot in 2011 with Wilmington

NW Arkansas broke their nine game losing streak to Springfield with a 12-4 win. The Naturals scored eight runs in the bottom of the first inning and never looked back. Mario Lisson hit a three-run homerun in the first (he fell a double short of the cycle).

The Naturals collected 16 hits, as six players had multi-hit games. Lisson, Manny Pina, and Christian Colon all collected three hits. CC, since his return from the DL, has moved to second base.

The burst of offense made a winner of Michael Mariot, who did not allow a hit until there was one out in the 5th inning. He then allowed three straight, but induced an inning-ending double play to escape. Mariot pitched six scoreless innings in his start and only allowed those three hits.

Wilmington and Carolina played a rain shortened game, as the Mudcats won 8-4 in seven innings. The Blue Rocks out-hit the Mudcats 10-8, but went just 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position. The Blue Rocks led 4-1 heading into the 6th inning, but the Mudcats scored five runs and another two runs in the 7th inning.

Leondy Perez returned to the mound after spending close to two months on the DL. He allowed one run on two hits and a walk over four innings. The Blue Rocks defense (well just shortstop Orlando Calixte, who cost them four runs) and the bullpen blew the game.

Matt Fields continues his torrid pace, as he hit another homerun (his 13th) and went 2-for-4. Juan Graterol also hit a homerun, a two-run shot in the 2nd inning. Luis Piterson, who is playing alot with the injuries to Angel Franco and Roman Hernandez, went 3-for-3.

Down 2-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th inning, Kane County came back with a 3-2 victory over Quad Cities in the first game of their three-game series. Henry Moreno started off the inning with a single and was sacrificed to second base. He scored to tie the game on pinch-hitter Daniel Mateo‘s RBI triple. With two outs and runners at the corners, Jack Lopez delivered the game-winning single.

That late comeback made a winner of Jason Mitchell, who pitched two scoreless innings of relief. He allowed three hits and struck out three. Over 11,000 Cougars fans went home happy.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-5 with a run scored in Burlington’s 7-6 loss to Pulaski (in walk-off fashion).

July 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third basemen Mike Moustakas (8) dives for a ground ball against the Minnesota Twins during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Moustakas told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that he didn’t think the knee was seriously injured, but he’s day-to-day at the moment.

Regardless, the Royals are going to have Moose get an MRI. If he misses a few games, that’s not too bad – the last thing the Royals need to do is push him to return too quickly in a lost season. If it takes a trip to the disabled list, so be it. Irving Falu would fit in if he needed to for two weeks. Yuniesky Betancourt filled in at third after Moose came out. If he doesn’t get traded, he’s most likely to fill in.

Hopefully it’s not serious. The Royals have been hit over and over with injuries to key players. Losing Moustakas from the lineup isn’t good for anybody and the worst case scenario is any kind of injury that would affect him long-term that could carry into next season.

Moustakas has had a great season in 2012, hitting for more power than last year and showing more consistency than his up and down 2011. His defense has been great all year as well. According to FanGraphs, he’s the best defensive third baseman in baseball, and it’s not very close, either.

That being the case, I went through and constructed a roster of players made up only of those players the Royals traded at the deadline. For this purpose, I considered a “deadline trade” anything within three weeks of the deadline (prior to 1986, the deadline was June 15 each year).

Warning: Some of the names to follow are painful memories of awful teams, bad deals, and it’s not for the faint of heart:

C – Matt Treanor (1997)

Before his 2011 stint with the Royals, Treanor had been drafted by Kansas City in 1994. On July 29, 1997, the Royals traded him to Florida for left-handed pitcher Matt Whisenant, who made 142 appearances as a Royal with a 5.05 ERA.

1B – Matt Stairs (2006)

Stairs was a part of some of the worst Royals teams ever, hitting 39 homers from 2004 until July 31, 2006 as a Royal. The Royals got right-handed pitcher Jose Diaz from Texas for him. He threw 25 innings in the Royals organization before going to Japan.

2B – Mike Aviles (2011)

July 15, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Mike Aviles (3) hits a 2-run home run in the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, Aviles was struggling with the Royals and his defense was suspect. With Alcides Escobar and Johnny Giavotella around, the Royals found him expendable and sent him to Boston for infielder Yamaico Navarro and right-hander Kendal Volz. Aviles went on to produce a .775 OPS for Boston the rest of the year and started out hot in 2012 as well.

Volz pitched in Double A before retiring earlier this month. Navarro didn’t fit within the organization and had some character problems (he was arrested for a DUI earlier this month) and was flipped to Pittsburgh for Brooks Pounders and Diego Goris.

SS – Rey Sanchez (2001)

Sanchez didn’t have a lot of power, but when he was with the Royals he showed he was fine as a contact hitter and provided solid defense at short. After two years in Kansas City, Sanchez was traded to Atlanta at the deadline in 2001 for minor league outfielder Alejandro Machado and pitcher Brad Voyles.

Machado would be traded in a deadline deal in 2003 for Curtis Leskanic as the Royals found themselves in contention.

3B – Alberto Callaspo (2010)

When he started his Royals career, Callaspo looked like he might develop into a potent bat at second base. In 2009, he hit .300 and had 60 extra base hits. In 2010, his name came up in trade talks and the Royals, with other options to play third base (where Callaspo had played more and more starting that year), they dealt him on July 22, 2010 to the Angels for righty Sean O’Sullivan and lefty Will Smith.

O’Sullivan pitched as a spot starter and long relief guy for the Royals until being traded to the Blue Jays for cash. Will Smith has surfaced as a member of the Royals starting rotation after injuries and solid work in Omaha.

OF – Tom Goodwin (1997)

The Royals grabbed Goodwin off waivers in 1994 and put him in their lineup starting in 1995 where he proceeded to steal 150 bases in two and a half seasons.

On July 25, 1997, they traded him to Texas, getting Dean Palmer in return. This is an example of one of their more successful deadline deals, as Palmer went on to hit .278/.335/.487 in over 200 plate appearances the rest of the year and hit as a Royal in 1998. Goodwin went on to play until 2004, carving out a decent career for himself.

OF – Jose Bautista (2004)

If you blinked in 2004, you missed Bautista’s Royals career. He played a grand 13 games with the Royals in a season where he made appearances for four different big league teams.

He’s in here because he’s a fun name to include – the move a the time was of little significance to anyone. Nobody though he’d go on to lead the American League in homers two years in a row. He wasn’t even a full time player until 2010. On July 30, the Royals sent him to the Mets for an infamous name among Royals fans – Justin Huber.

OF – Jermaine Dye (2001)

Jun 11, 2009; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye (23) before the game against the Detroit Tigers at US Cellular Field. The White Sox won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Ugh.

That’s almost all you can say about this one, right? The Royals turned a young All-Star and Gold Glove outfielder into Neifi Perez. I don’t even want to talk about this move. It’s too painful. At least in the other notable trades of Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran, the Royals got something of value (though barely) – Perez is among the worst everyday players in recent memory.

July 25, 2001 is a painful memory.

SP – Kevin Appier (1999)

This one hurts, but after 1998 was lost to shoulder surgery, it doesn’t hurt as much as Dye’s trade. Appier wasn’t the same after the surgery but still ended up in demand at the deadline. On July 31, 1999, the Royals sent him to the A’s for Jeff D’Amico (NOT the former Brewer), Brad Rigby and Blake Stein, all right-handed pitchers.

Appier wasn’t much more effective for the A’s and ended up bouncing around the league before returning to the Royals in late 2003. D’Amico and Rigby both put up ERAs above 9.00 as Royals, though Stein at least approached league average as a pitcher for Kansas City until disappearing from baseball after 2002.

RP – Octavio Dotel (2007)

The Royals signed Dotel to a one-year deal and it wasn’t a surprise when they looked to move him at the deadline in 2007. They put him in 24 games where he earned 11 saves but they didn’t need a closer very much in a year where they lost 93 games and had Rule 5 pick Joakim Soria pitching well enough to take over the role.

Dotel’s time with the Royals is just a blip on his nomadic radar (13 teams in 14 years). For 7.2 innings of work, the Braves sent Kyle Davies to Kansas City on the last day of the month and the rest is history.

Other notable deadline departures:

• Jon Lieber to Pittsburgh (1993)
• Mark Davis to Atlanta (1992)
• Jeremy Affeldt to Colorado (2006)
• Kyle Farnsworth to Atlanta (2010)
• Mike MacDougal to Chicago (2006)
• Wilson Betemit to Detroit (2011)
• Tony Graffanino to Boston (2005)/Tony Graffanino to Milwaukee (2006)
• Buddy Biancalana to Houston (1987)

In the latest episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, our guest was former Kansas City Athletic and current Royals senior pitching advisor Bill Fischer.

Fischer talked about his time with the A’s and in pitching, as well as his time as a coach and advisor. We asked him about pitching today, a few Royals prospects (Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura in particular) and his approach to the game and pitching development.

The rest of the show was spent discussing the front office, decision-making, and what it’ll take to get this team back to being a winner. Since the hope of a great season is mostly gone, we focused on the things we’re going to pay attention to for the rest of the year and those players that we enjoy seeing play even during the rough games.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

They’ve made it apparent that Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Mijares and Jonathan Broxton are the key names available.

Now it’s a matter of turning those names into something of value. That’s the goal, right? Trade the veterans for other players, usually younger, and continue loading up during this rebuilding stretch.

But here’s where I’m worried. The Royals as an organization have shown that they can scout players and identify solid draft picks. They’ve loaded the farm system with talent and potential. They aren’t always good at evaluating the problems with players they currently have on the roster and I think it’s going to cloud their minds during the deadline.

Francoeur in a good moment. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

Jeff Francoeur is a great guy. He’s active within the community, takes rookies out to dinner, shows them how to conduct themselves after the game and he’s almost always got a smile on his face. Unfortunately, those kinds of things aren’t so important that they add anything to the score during the game. Leadership only goes so far until it has to be supported by performance. Last year, he might have hacked at some bad pitches but he was hitting the ball. Sometimes they were choppers but often, those hits turned into doubles. Bad habits can be overlooked when a player is going good. And in 2011, Francoeur was going good.

But players don’t change their ways usually and performance leaks catch up. In Francoeur’s case, he looks lost at the plate, swinging at bad pitches, taking good ones, and hasn’t produced much of anything.

That hurts his trade value severely. He already carries a stigma that his leadership can’t overcome and his contract is a burden as well.

Now the Royals have to try to get something for him.

Betancourt has the same kind of issues. The Royals will talk about how he has right-handed pop, but even in the last two years when he’s reached double digit homers, his slugging percentage was barely around .400. Combine that with a reputation for bad defense and the same poor pitch selection as Francoeur and there’s a player who’s tough to trade off for a prospect.

The Royals say both are on the trade block, but both could just as easily be on the waiver wire this time next month with their lack of performance. What teams are going to give up value for that? There’s little point to trading anything of significance for players who could end up on the scrap heap in a few weeks. Either they’ll be essentially free or they won’t be of use to a contending team.

Where the Royals are most deluding themselves, though, is with their pursuit of a return for Jonathan Broxton.

Yes, he has 23 saves in 26 attempts this year, but teams aren’t blind.

While Broxton used to be the behemoth setup man and closer for the Dodgers, regular overuse by Joe Torre led to injury and he hasn’t been good since 2009. Now and then he can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, but he’s not the dominant force he used to be. His strikeout rate is nearly half of his career rate and it wasn’t much better last season. He’s always walked around 3.5 batters per nine innings, but he’s also much more hittable since his struggles in LA.

The Royals tell teams they want a young starting pitcher who’s ready to be in the big leagues for him.

Newsflash: Every team wants that player. Dayton Moore knows of this principle. In January 2011, bloggers at the Digital Digest asked him how he can claim to look for on base percentage players but how he doesn’t end up signing players who have that scouting profile. His answer was that the market created that challenge – that other teams wanted those kinds of players and you had to “take what you can get“.

Now, nobody can blame Moore for trying to see if a team will give up a pitcher who’s close to becoming a mainstay in the rotation, so if it’s a calculated approach to snag a bit more value, great. If they can pull it off. At a point, though, they’ll have to take what they can get, and if that’s a diamond in the rough, so be it.

It smacks of the same kind of tunnel vision Allard Baird had when trying to trade Carlos Beltran. He made it clear to everyone that he wanted a third baseman and a catcher. Nevermind if there might have been a solid outfielder who could have turned into a star. It didn’t fit the positions he was fixated on. There are rumors that Robinson Cano could have been had for Beltran, but he wasn’t a third baseman, so no dice.

In this case, Moore has to approach it as if it’s a draft. In the draft, you don’t draft for need unless you know the player is going to produce immediately. That’s a rare occurrence. Draft the best talent and you’re better off. In this case, if there’s any talent and it’s not the stated requirement of “MLB-ready young starter” then the Royals need to jump on it.

Betancourt and Broxton are on one-year deals. The Royals get nothing if they ride them out for the rest of the year. Betancourt isn’t going to return much at all but he’ll get something, some fringe minor leaguer who might turn into something. That’s enough. Francoeur’s contract would have to be absorbed to move him and again he might not get much, but they have to do it. Broxton’s most likely to move, but not if the Royals hold out for that pitcher. They’ll either end up with something subpar, like a Vin Mazzaro, or they’ll end up with nothing.

They’re treating Broxton as if his 23/26 saves mean something. It’s not often that pitchers with a 1.402 WHIP are treated as hot commodities. Teams know the numbers. They’ve seen how often he puts a runner on to lead off the inning (40% of the time). They know he’s put the tying or lead run on base 16 different games in 31 games where he’d entered with the lead. Would any other GM want that for their closer? Nevermind that most of the contending teams have a closer already or options who are in the same class as Broxton.

Sooner or later, Broxton’s tendency to let runners on will catch up to him and teams don’t want it to be during a meaningful game. If they have to settle on some A-ball prospect, they have to make the trade.

Moving Francoeur and Betancourt have the added benefit that whatever you get for them almost doesn’t match the benefit of simply taking their combined .277 on base percentage out of the lineup (which is just the same as saying they make an out in 72.3% of their plate appearances) and injecting Wil Myers and Irving Falu or Johnny Giavotella (who’s hitting .402 this month and has a 21 game hitting streak for Omaha) into the lineup.

It’s time to recognize that some dead weight needs to be cut and some pieces need to be moved for whatever’s out there. The Royals have the bullpen reinforcements to absorb Mijares or Broxton leaving and Myers can’t be much worse than Francoeur at this point. I’d take the opportunity to go with a full youth movement and bring up Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery just to get what you can out of them. See what they can do. Let them learn at this level and see who rises to the challenge. Heck, start them in the bullpen even. Manage their appearances as best you can to build them up slowly the rest of the year. Try something a bit different – the current way isn’t working.

But that won’t happen. Dayton will sit on Broxton and say later that the right match didn’t materialize, when he was focused on what he had to have and not what he could have. Frenchy’s leadership will be valued over his performance and Betancourt – well I really don’t understand Moore’s obsession with Betancourt. Moore has acquired him twice – on purpose – and nobody’s going to confuse Betancourt for a good baseball player. There’s still time for Falu or Giavotella to learn to become one.

It’s a tough game, and only one team is happy at the end of the year, but the Royals have to position themselves better just to avoid being the most miserable. It’s time to make some moves. Maybe it’s just being impatient, maybe it’s frustration. Yeah, the pitching is a problem and the Royals have to address it this offseason (and get something at the deadline if they can), but that doesn’t mean they can’t fix the other problems on the roster and in their approach to building it.

Alex Gordon will look to continue his recent hot streak as the Royals visit Seattle for the only time this season. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

As mentioned the M’s were at the K just last week when they took three of four against Kansas City. Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki earlier this week to the New York Yankees, who went 7-for-20 with five runs scored, one double and triple.

Season Series …

Ichiro wasn’t the only Mariner to hurt the Royals last week left fielder Casper Wells drove in seven runs over the four game series. Jesus Montero was 8-for-17 scoring five runs plus drove in eight runs against KC. Pitching wise the M’s got solid efforts from three of their four starters which was capped by Felix Hernandez eight inning performance.

In the opener Seattle put the final nail in the Jonathan Sanchez coffin scoring five first inning runs and knocking him out after an inning and a third. Jason Vargas went six innings allowing three runs but was picked up by his ‘pen allowing one run over the final three innings. Alex Gordon had three hits with Mike Moustakas providing two in the 9-4 defeat.

Game two was similar to game one with the Royals not getting a long outing from its starter when Ryan Verdugo made his MLB debut and only went 1 2/3 innings. Verdugo allowed six runs on eight hits in his rough debut. KC fought back from a six-run deficit twice in the game but ultimately lost 9-6, Lorenzo Cain had a two-run pinch hit home run.

Kansas City fell behind 1-0 in game three but tagged Kevin Millwood for three runs in the second inning. Gordon and Cain each drove in two runs and six of the seven Royals starters drove in a run in the 8-7 win, Bruce Chen took a no-decision. Billy Butler was the hero in the game with a walkoff HR to left centerfield.

Will Smith gave KC a 6 1/3 inning start which he struck out five walking just two in what was largely a good start. Facing King Felix proved difficult even with Kansas City getting eight hits, they were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and grounded into two double plays. Montero drove in four runs in the Mariners 6-1 victory.

7/16 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 4
7/17 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 6
7/18 – Mariners 7 @ Royals 8
7/19 – Mariners 6 @ Royals 1

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Thursday, 9:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31) v. Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91)
- Mendoza picked up his first victory at home on Saturday night against the Twins going 6 1/3 well pitched innings in a 7-3 win.
- In his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against Seattle in four games which includes one start.
- Vargas has won his last three starts and has been given run support of 7 (at Oak), 9 (at KC) and 2 (at TB) runs in these starts. He hasn’t won at home since May 9, 2-1 against Detroit at Safeco Field.
Friday, 9:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 6.49)  v. Blake Beavan (5-6, 5.54)
- Guthrie made his Royals debut on Sunday at home against the Twins allowing five runs in five innings, striking out four and walking three.
- He’s faced the Mariners ten times with each appearance being a start, his record is 2-6 both wins were complete games.
- Beavan threw last week at the K picking up the win going six innings, he allowed five runs and struck out three.
Saturday, 3:10 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.54) v. Kevin Millwood (3-8, 4.13)
- Chen’s last start came in the third game of the series last week in which he got the ND throwing 5 1/3 innings. He allowed four runs on seven hits striking out six without issuing a walk.
- Last week was the first time in his career that Bruce faced the M’s.
- Millwood got rocked in during his five innings at Kansas City last week which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits. On June 8^th he was part of a combined no-hitter for the team against the Dodgers in Seattle.
Sunday, 3:10 pm – Will Smith (2-3, 6.26) v. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 2.80)
- Smith started Tuesday night in Anaheim going seven innings in the Royals 4-1 victory allowing just two-hits.
- He’ll get another shot at King Felix who he faced in the series finale last week where he worked into the seventh inning before being pulled.
- Hernandez like Smith pitched and won on Tuesday night the only game of the previous series for his team. Against the Yankees he went 7 1/3 innings allowed four hits and two runs.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s guest is Bill Fischer, a former Kansas City Athletic (1961-1963) as a pitcher. He currently serves as the Royals special pitching assistant.

We’ll also go over what we’re watching for the rest of the season as the Royals spiral towards another 90-loss year.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Alcides Escobar is one of the Royals most exciting players in 2012 (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I got the idea for this story while watching Alcides Escobar jolt two no-doubt home runs in the same game while batting from his new home in the two-hole on Saturday, July 14 during a 6-3 Royals victory over the first place White Sox.  By the end of the game, Escobar was batting .311 and was surprising all of us with his ability to hit for power and average.

Think about how excited the clubhouse gets when Moustakas belts a home run.  They meet him at the top of the dugout steps, they high five and chest bump each other.  Now, think about what would happen if Chris Getz ever hits another of his “every blue moon” dingers.  (Getz hasn’t had a home run in any park – major or minor league – since 2009 during his stint with the White Sox.)  The team would meet him at home plate, they would pick him up and carry him back to the bench.  They would drown him in Gatorade.  Why?  Because it wasn’t expected.  When a player exceeds your expectations, it truly makes the game a thrill to watch.

Alcides Escobar came to us in the Zack Greinke trade.  Milwaukee packaged him with Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress to get our former Cy Young pitcher.  In addition to Greinke, the Royals tossed Yuniesky “Boomerang” Betancourt into the deal as well for good measure.  Unfortunately, Yuni didn’t stick, and he came back to us again this year.

The players the Brewers traded to the Royals were the best prospects they had to offer.  Lorenzo Cain would have been the Brewers starting Centerfielder, Jake Odorizzi is considered to be a future solid contributor from the starting rotation, and Jeremy Jeffress is a former 1^st round pick who is still developing.

Alcides had also garnered some significant accolades, particularly for his defense.  Beginning his career as an Amateur Free agent in 2003, he’s always hit for average in the minors (.293 career over 6 seasons), but his bat has consistently been overshadowed by his glove, and as we all know, offensive prowess doesn’t always translate as well from the minors to the big leagues the way defensive ability does.

Alcides Escobar demonstrates his superb defensive skills. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

Prior to assuming regular duty with the Brewers in 2010, Escobar was ranked as the #1 prospect in the Brewers system by Baseball America, and Sports Illustrated claimed he was the 17^th most promising prospect in all of baseball saying, “Escobar has the arm, infield actions, hands and range to win Gold Gloves at shortstop. He makes the routine plays and the tough ones, too. Plus, he has speed that impacts the game offensively, and his swing’s not so bad either.”  Saying his swing is “not so bad” isn’t exactly the greatest compliment, but there is no doubt that everyone recognized Escobar’s dynamic defensive potential.

Escobar struggled somewhat in his first full season in the majors with the Brewers.  He hit a light .235 (which unfortunately is still a few points above the “Hosmer line”) and experienced some difficulties defensively too.  He committed the 3^rd most errors of all National League shortstops, and had the unfortunate luck to mishandle the ball with incredibly bad timing.  Brewers fans claimed Escobar suffered from a “lack of focus” and had a habit of committing costly errors at exactly the wrong time.  This disappointing performance may have been why the Brewers were willing to include Escobar in the trade.  Lucky us.

After the Greinke trade, the only note MLB.com included about Alcides in their story was that he had “the tools to be an extremely exciting defensive player” but he struggles at the plate.  ESPN said almost exactly the same thing.

So, what did we think we were getting when Alcides Escobar trotted out to man the left side of second base to begin the 2011 season?  We thought we were getting a light hitting defensive whiz who needed to work on his concentration and focus to be successful at the major league level.  And in 2011, that’s exactly what we got – a .254 batting average, 4 home runs, and 15 errors, but he was at least as good or a little bit better in almost all areas over his previous season.   So, we were pleasantly surprised as his performance mildly exceeded our expectations.

To begin 2012, I believe most of us were expecting another similar season out of Esky.  We expected him to play strong defense, and to hold his own on offense, but we didn’t think he could be a game changer or even a player that we could count on for a key hit.  Escobar has met our defensive expectations with some of the most exciting infield defense most of us have ever witnessed, but on offense…  he’s surpassed our wildest expectations.

If you think Alcides Escobar can't hurt you with his bat, you are mistaken. (Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE)

Think back to last March as we were contemplating the season opener.  What would you have predicted about Alcides Escobar?  Would you have ever dreamed he would be mentioned in the same breath as Derek Jeter on offense?  Jeter and Escobar have been jousting for the league lead in batting average among shortstops.  Jeter has 7 home runs, Esky has 4.  Jeter has 27 RBI, Escobar has 29.  Escobar has far, far better range and defensive skills than the always dependable but long-in-the-tooth Jeter, making plays on balls that Derek would only waive at.  And Escobar is providing this production for the Royals at a $15 million discount over what Jeter is charging the Yankees.  Stunning, but true.

A few nights ago, Brad Brickell tweeted (@BradBrick) that the Royals win the Greinke trade on Escobar alone, and I agree with him, at least to this point.  Greinke is a great pitcher, and I’d love to have him back again when he hits free agency later this year.  But up to this point, I think it’s clear that Alcides has easily exceeded our expectations, and he’s a key factor in our bright hopes for the future.  Hopefully, all baseball fans will realize this when they’re voting for the All Star players in 2013.

They say “never say it can’t get any worse”. We’ve already tried to get through the tough 12 game losing streak but a good stretch of play just got everyone’s hopes up. The Royals aren’t very good right now, and in this episode we tried to figure out why and what can be done.

With that in mind, we talked about pitching development (and you can see KoK Alumni Jeff Herr’s in depth article about it here), the next wave coming and what kind of things might go down as the trade deadline approaches.

(Also, technology was a bit down in the dumps too during recording, as we almost lost the first half of the show. We blame Frenchy.)

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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