May 13, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday was a busy day for Royals fans. Amid a four game losing streak and following a loss against the lowly Houston Astros (you’re contractually obligated to call a bad team “lowly”), the frustrations felt at other points in the season were nothing compared to the resulting meltdowns as the Royals were turning a 17-10 start into a 20-21 record.

Kevin Scobee presented an analysis of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, outlining what’s wrong, and what might fix their problems. He also took on Ned Yost‘s comments about going to a “third baseman tree” to replace Moustakas. I’d call it a must read even if it weren’t on our site.

And right behind that, Craig Brown at Royals Review offered his opinions on Ned Yost’s claims that fans just have to keep being patient. I’m with Craig here – I’ve been a fan of the Royals since I knew who they were. I’ve been plenty patient. We’re in year seven of the Dayton Moore regime, and while I understand that not everyone figures it out right away, Yost isn’t providing satisfactory answers to the questions.

One such problem the Royals are facing is the relative bustability of their prospects. Jonah Keri and Rany Jazayerli, both of Grantland, looked at that aspect of the franchise. How do you go from dominating the Baseball America top 100 prospects list before 2011 and now having little to show for it?

Hopefully, the Royals figure it out because right now, Yordano Ventura is making a case for himself and is getting close to a promotion to Triple A. Another pitching prospect, Miguel Almonte, is tearing up Low A Lexington. As Bob Dutton notes, he’s given up just three runs in his last 25.1 innings.

While the Royals have gotten good buzz for both Ventura and Almonte, two international signings, they’re still trying to get what they expected out of 2010 first round pick Christian Colon. He’s still in Omaha but has just a .630 OPS and he’s been about a quarter of the time at second base. He talked with Lee Warren about the shift and the different approaches he has to take on either side of the bag. He also talked about adjustments and pressure at the Triple A level.

Finally, the Royals have had success with international signings like Ventura, Almonte, Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi and others. They’re apparently the front-runners for 15-year-old shortstop Marten Gasparini of Italy. Gasparini turns 16 on Friday, and thus becomes eligible for the start of the international signing period on July 2nd. He’s touted as very athletic and some have called him the best European prospect they’ve seen.

Justin Marks allowed two runs in the first inning on three singles, a walk, and a sac fly. After that, he only allowed two more hits and a walk over six more innings.

The Storm Chasers only collected seven hits, two from Xavier Nady.

Wilmington held on to beat first place Lynchburg, 4-3.

Aaron Brooks proved that maybe he should be a prospect. He allowed five hits over eight scoreless innings (the longest outing by any Blue Rocks starter). He struck out five and the Hillcats never had more than one base runner on base in an inning. By my count, he finished with 86 pitches (59 for strikes) and only threw eight pitches in his final inning.

The Blue Rocks offense scored two runs each in the fourth and fifth innings. Daniel Mateo scored the game’s first run, after going face first into the grass when rounding third base. In his defense, he was held up at first but then the left fielder misplayed the ball and he had to restart. Mateo went 3-for-4 with two runs scored.

Manager Vance Wilson talked after the game about Brooks’ start, why Brooks’ is now the Blue Rocks top starter, about reliever Robinson Yambati’s struggles, about the health of Jared Schlehuber, and his team’s defense:

Down 3-1 heading into the bottom of the eighth, Lexington scored three runs and held on for the 4-3 victory. The first run scored on a wild pitch on a Bubba Starling strikeout. Michael Antonio gave them the lead with a two out, two-run single.

Christian Binford was solid in the start, as he pitched six innings. He allowed three unearned run on five hits and a walk while striking out eight. Ali Williams picked up the win with two scoreless innings of relief.

Raul Mondesi and Yowill Espinal each picked up two hits, with Espinal hitting a solo homerun, his first of the season.

May 7, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) throws down to first base in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Royals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

On Monday night, Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer went after a foul popup. The ball ended up landing in the Houston Astros dugout, but Perez, watching the ball, crashed into the barrier in front of the dugout.

He stayed in the game and finished the inning before George Kottaras relieved him in the sixth inning.

Perez is a big guy and running full speed into the barrier is a scary injury. That’s just a lot of force. It was stated that he had hip irritation (no surprise). But after he’d lost half of 2012 to knee surgery, the prospect of Perez getting hurt again (and in the middle of a Royals skid) caused worry.

As it happens, the injury is just a deep bruise. Perez is out of Tuesday’s starting lineup in Houston, but if needed, he’d be available. Joel Goldberg reported that the Royals had an MRI performed on his hip, fearing a tear of some sort, but there is no such problem.

Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief. Perez ranks eighth among big league catchers in WAR according to FanGraphs while throwing out 32% of baserunners. With so few players hitting well to this point of the season, Perez in the lineup becomes even more important. After a 4-26 start to the year in the first week, Perez has gotten his batting average back above .300 and has surpassed 600 plate appearances for his career and his numbers look awfully similar to another high profile catcher. He only has one homer and he’s nearly impossible to walk, but he’s still hitting line drives, just as he did in 2011 and just as he did in 2012.

The Royals seem to have caught a break here, which is something that hasn’t happened much the last two weeks.

The regulars are all at about 150 plate appearances and we’ve already got some pretty strong opinions about the direction each player seems to be heading. Let’s just hit the 1-4 hitters based on the lineup card Ned Yost submitted in today’s disappointing game against the Astros and we will tackle the last half of the lineup later this week. (All stats are current through the first 40 games of the season.)

1. Lorenzo Cain – Compare .308/.376/.423/.799 in 40 games to .262/.308/.397/.705 in his first 40 games in 2012. Last season he got hurt early on, so he didn’t make it to 40 games until mid-August. It’s been so nice to have Lorenzo playing regularly despite the fact that I wince when the man sneezes because, who knows? He might injure himself that way. He’s been producing and I hope he does so all season. Stay healthy, Zo!

2. Alcides Esobar – Esky has a line of .250/.278/.345/.624 through 40 games, but has really struggled in the last 15 games where both his average and OBP have dropped over 40 points each. Through 40 games in 2012, Alcides had a line of .301/.342/.418/.760. I think everyone expected Alcides’ offense to flatten out a bit, but he’s better than the line he has at the moment. Hopefully he’ll break out of the slump he’s been in for the past 2 weeks.

3. Alex Gordon - A1* is raking right now with a slash line of .343/.367/.535/.902. Some concern regarding his plate discipline has been voiced as he’s been known to do a good job of working counts the last few years but has swung earlier and more often this year. As far as I’m concerned, if you’re producing like he is, I won’t be upset. I’m not too worried that he’s going to change his approach dramatically. I think it won’t be long before he starts seeing more pitches and taking more walks. As long as he’s driving in runs/getting on base consistently. I have no complaints. Last year, Gordon had a line of .231/.320/.363/.683 after 40 games, so it’s hard for me to really do anything but (very quietly grumble) about how he has seemed to walk less so far this year. WHISPERS:  (But just so you know…Alex had 20 walks in the first 40 games of last year but has only 7 in 40 games this year. On the other hand, he already has 29 RBI’s which is 11 more than he had this time last year. Circular reasoning is circular.)

*It’s hard not to gush about Gordon….nothing beats a Scobee gush, of course….but still.

4. Billy Butler - .273/.378/.439/.817 with 8 doubles and 5 home runs. Compare this to .297/.357/.523/.879 with 11 doubles and 8 home runs. Billy had 10 walks in the first 40 games of the 2012 season and has more than doubled that number in the first 40 games of 2013 with 22. I love Billy’s plate discipline, I always have. However, I’m really hoping he will get/take the opportunity to drive in more runs as the season progresses. Especially due to the fact that his getting a walk this year is often nullified by the inconsistencies of his teammates hitting behind him.* If Hosmer and Moustakas can’t produce, his walks won’t mean as much.

*Excluding Sal Perez who is doing well and will be discussed in a follow-up post.

There’s the first half of the lineup. These guys don’t look too bad aside from a slumping Escobar who could easily turn things around with a good week.

However, I’m not looking forward to seeing what the back end of the order has to offer. Until later this week…..

The Rays have been the most disciplined team in the majors when it comes to holding prospects down in order to get extra years of service or avoid super two status.  That makes a move like bringing Odorizzi up look a little odd before June.  It could be taken that he is seen by them as a marginal starter at best, so they are not concerned about him reaching arbitration early.  So far this year he has okay, but not spectacular numbers in AAA.  Most evaluations I have ever seen on Jake have his ceiling as a middle to back of the rotation starter.  No reason to worry about $10 million arbitration deals, so super two and an extra year of arbitration are less costly.  If his service time is greater than Myers’, then it also makes it less likely that Wil is in the super two this year.

Another way to look at it is that the back end of the Rays rotation has been bad.  They are off to a rough start as a team (4.5 games back of NY and 4 behind Boston), and Odorizzi becomes their 4th best starter immediately.  Odorizzi realizing his potential now could be very valuable in helping Tampa Bay keep in the AL East hunt.  Wil Myers might be up already in that case except that he has not lit the world on fire in the minors.  A 28.3% K rate has lead to a .250 average and sub-400 slugging.  That is not how Myers hit last year, and Tampa Bay might think that the 22 year old needs some more time for development.

Either way this is an interesting and unexpected development.  No one was really planning on Odorizzi coming up and giving a lot of value to the Rays right away.  The talk of THE TRADE all hinged on Myers.  Also, Wade Davis having a hard time transitioning back into the rotation for the Royals could make  Odorizzi having success this year sting a bit.

Now while you could provide an argument, and possibly a compelling one, about 42 games into a season not being all that much in the grand scheme of things and there still being plenty of games left to played, the very same red flags there were before the season about a roster built largely on contact-dependent production, still remains and has finally started to even out the team’s luck.

Coming into this year the main reason provided for why the Royals would and could contend was the progression of two players that were drafted higher than anyone else while Dayton Moore has been in charge,* Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. And while there were very real concerns about both of them after the 2012 season, Moore and Co. still felt as if now, 2013, was the time to “go for it” packaging four prospects for two pitchers to bolster an ailing rotation.

*Excluding Luke Hochevar because if Royals can use his being picked when convenient to their argument, so can I.

Nothing about the motivation behind the acquisition of James Shields and Wade Davis was or is unsound – I’ve written a number of times about there needing to be some point in which wins were paramount – however there are a lot of things about the application of that trade, along with targeting nothing but pitching in the offseason while expecting major progression from more than half of the position players on the roster, is unsound.

And now with the two focal points of expectations and hopes struggling more than anyone could have imagined, the organization is defensive, without answers, and acting like a petulant child stomping their feet when questioned. (More on that shortly.)

Mike Moustakas is currently hitting .178/.252/.311 on the season with seemingly no end in sight. His plate discipline coming up through the minors was always a cause to relax on the projections for what he would be as a major league hitter, but it never seemed to be this bad or be cause for this much damage.

Moustakas is now a career .240/.294/.384 hitter in 1,130 plate appearances, far past the mythical 1,000-plate-appearances-mark Moore had previously laid out as the time to pass judgment on a hitter, and for all the struggles the third baseman has with patience and drawing walks to allow him to tap into his power, it’s his actual swing that’s cause for concern due to his 17.8 infield pop-ups percentage. His top-hand dominant swing creates far too pronounced downward and upward angles of bat path, resulting in a small zone for solid contact and a small margin for error.

Hosmer is currently batting .266 with a .340 on-base percentage, which isn’t terrible, but he’s slugging .345, a number so low for him that it should make everyone question whether 2011 actually happened or not.

His swing has completely changed from 2011 when he used an open stance, got his front foot down early, and let his hands fly.

Now, the only chance he has to drive the ball is to the opposite field (as evident by his spray chart), lucking into solid contact because he is such a gifted hitter, in spite of his long swing.

Take a closer look at this swing as compared to Gordon’s from their home runs in Baltimore.* Hosmer’s hand load is far too active and twists around his body as his shoulders turn. Gordon’s is near still, with just the slightest push straight back.

(click gif to view)

The more the hands over-rotate disproportionately to the shoulders, the more likely it is for the hands to swing out and around, instead of straight through, to the hitting zone. This makes it harder to catch up to higher velocities. But, if timed currently, and with advanced hand-eye coordination and special talents like those of Hosmer, he can still square up pitches to drive the other way, simply because his zone for contact has been moved deeper across the plate.

Both hitters have flaws right now hurting their production; both have flaws that are entirely fixable. The question becomes now if those flaws need to be fixed in Triple-A. And that talk has just about started up.

The question the Royals have to ask themselves is if spending the next however many months helping their two cornerstone players fight through their struggles stunts their overall development, and how much they’re willing to sacrifice Hosmer and Moustakas’ long-term potential for a shot at the playoffs this year.

Because there needs to be a conversation about when is the appropriate time to send both players down in hopes that they can turn back into the players they’re capable of being. The most prime example of this type of decision is currently playing left field.

Alex Gordon was sent down to Triple-A not necessarily because he was a bad player, he wasn’t, but because he wasn’t the player he could have and should have been. Sure Gordon could have competed in the big leagues as a .260/.351/.432 hitter (his numbers his last full year before injuries took much of 2009 and 2010) but he was capable of better, and if the Royals were ever going to move forward as a team, it needed to be with a better Alex Gordon.

Right now, Moustakas and Hosmer are competing (Moustakas obviously less so) as everyday players, but if the Royals are truly a contender for the playoffs either this year or next year, it will only be with an Eric Hosmer and a Mike Moutakas that are living up to their full potential.

There needs to be a conversation how much of a detriment it is to that potential to have both players almost completely overmatched for much longer at the big league level.

The Bad

I’m skipping The Good for this edition because this is already nearing 2,000 words, and there were these gems of quotes from Ned Yost over the weekend:

“But I’m going to tell you something, if I’m wrong on this kid, it’ll be the first. I’ve never been wrong on one of these kids who I’ve had conviction with. None of them. We’re talking about 15 guys over a 30-year career”

“There is no third baseman tree. You don’t go grab another one. You let him develop. Look at Gordy (Alex Gordon). When I came over here (in 2010), all I heard (from fans) was this kid is never going to be anything.

“No. You’re wrong. Give them time to develop. But I understand it. I know what the fans want. They want it, and they want it now. Instant gratification just doesn’t work (in baseball).”

Oh spare me.

By now everyone has undoubtedly heard these quotes by Yost as appeared in Bob Dutton’s piece in the Saturday edition of the Kansas City Star.

The tonnage of narcissism and self-gratification it takes to make statements like that, with such arrogant conviction, is really quite astonishing. It’s astonishing that a man steeped in the muck of his own bravado, can be so condescending towards a fan base that has expectations only because he himself and his organization have told the fans to have those expectations.

To say “I’ve never been wrong” is on the one hand a brilliant public relations ploy because there’s no true way for such a blanket and empty statement to be questioned; there’s no way anyone could ever research whether it was true or false. But on the other hand Royals fans should be rolling their eyes at a man who earnestly believes he’s never been wrong in an industry in which people are wrong all the time.

In no other industry can a man stand so defiantly against questioning about his job performance, and in justification of that job performance, reference work he’s done at previous jobs, one in which he was fired from during a pennant race in September.

With just 12 games left in the season Yost was relieved of his position in Milwaukee because the organization felt he would make that much of a difference in the team’s performance across the final two weeks. Granted that was five years ago now, and people across all walks of business are allowed to grow and learn from past mistakes, but there aren’t many individuals who are willing to point to those past mistakes as a reason for their being right today.

To repeatedly use a past performance that your employer deemed not worthy of future employment with 12 games left in the season, is the same type of arrogance displayed by an organization that continually moves the goalposts on their own success and acts as if it is somehow the fans’ fault for wanting “instant gratification”.

But that’s where we are. This is now the second manager that has used the same phrase (which is more than mere coincidence and leads to believe that it’s a topic of conversation among the organization itself) as a means to antagonize and condescend a fanbase that just six weeks ago, largely felt this team was a playoff contender. A fanbase that felt this team was a playoff contender, because the organization itself planted that flag in the ground.

This is the seventh full season for the Royals under Dayton Moore, the third with Ned Yost as manager. In those seven seasons the Royals have yet to win more than 75 games, the team’s best players were either part of the last GM’s drafts or brought in from outside the organization, and the guy that is the most visible employee of the franchise has taken to throwing barbs at the fans for not being patient enough.

Royals fans may not deserve a winner – I’m not sure any fanbase really deserves anything, that’s not how it works – but Royals fans deserve better than that.

They hit four homeruns in the win. Adam Moore gave Omaha their first lead of the game with a three-run 2nd inning bomb. Chad Tracy hit a three-run shot with two outs in the sixth. Christian Colon hit a two-run shot in the seventh (one of his two hits). Willy Taveras hit a solo shot to end their scoring in the 8th inning (one of his two hits).

Max Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a double and two runs scored.

Everett Teaford earned the win in relief. He entered the game in the sixth inning with a runner on base. He stranded that runner, but allowed a run in the seventh. Louis Coleman earned the save with two perfect innings of relief. He struck out three.

NW Arkansas lost to Tulsa again, this time by an 8-5 score.

Sugar Ray Marimon lost his sixth game of the season after he allowed three homeruns of the eight hits he allowed. He pitched 5.2 innings and struck out four. The Naturals bullpen pitched well (for the most part). Jon Keck pitched 1.1 perfect innings. After Matt Ridings allowed one run and loaded the bases, JC Sulbaran escaped the jam and pitched 1.1 perfect innings of relief.

The Naturals collected nine hits, but went 5-for-15 with runners in scoring position. Mitch Canham and Rey Navarro went 2-for-4 with a double each. Navarro drove in two runs. Matt Fields went 3-for-4 with three RBIs.

Lexington scored late en route to their 3-1 win over visiting Asheville.

The Legends scored two runs in the 6th inning to take the lead on one out singles by Fred Ford and Humberto Arteaga. Bubba Starling returned to the lineup to drive in their final run with a single in the seventh (he went 2-for-4). Terrence Gore also went 2-for-4 and stole his 24th base of the season.

Legends starter Miguel Almonte allowed one run on two hits and four walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out eight. Chas Byrne earned the win with two hitless innings of relief. Clayton Schulz picked up his third save of the season with 1.1 hitless innings of relief.

His smile betrayed him.

Baseball players, especially professional ones, at all levels of baseball are programmed for humility.  Baseball, at its nature, is a humbling game. A 70% failure rate qualifies one for the Hall of Fame after all.  So ballplayers, outwardly at least, must stay grounded.

Buddy Baumann on the mound for the Naturals. 5/12/13. Photo: Michelle Meade

Buddy Baumann is not a name that most Royals fans would know unless you were buried deep into scouting reports or read every word on Baseball Prospectus.  Saturday night, Baumann made his AAA League debut for the Omaha Storm Chasers. “Along with the strikeouts, I did walk two people. That’s something I need to work on. I need to continue to live around the strike zone,” Baumann said after the 9-4 loss to the Las Vegas 51’s. Baumann faced 8 batters, and struck out four of them with no hits allowed and two walks.

The Storm Chasers are muddling around the .500 mark this year with a roster missing the prospect names that Royals fans used to recognize like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi.  This year’s team is struggling to have the same success that the wire-to-wire PCL American-North division winners last year had.  Kansas City isn’t using as many players this year either with their winning ways at the Major League Level.  To date, they’ve only used two players from the AAA Roster, OF David Lough to replace the injured Jarrod Dyson and  LHP Will Smith who was brought up under 26th Man rules for two doubleheaders.

Minor league games are deceptive to watch. While they are still team games that determine a winner and a loser, it is an added level of complexity when you can monitor the upward or downward movement of each player on the field.  The catcher who makes two errors in a game is not only disappointed he affected his team’s chances to win, but also looking over his shoulder at the backup catcher salivating for a window to perform and move up the depth chart.  Such is the case with Adam Moore, who made two costly errors in Friday night’s game, a 7-3 loss to Las Vegas.

A player who can’t get a shot at the next level might work at a different position to increase his marketability, (or tradability) such as the case with Johnny Giavotella, who has been playing games at third after he failed to win the Major League second base job with Kansas City.

Baumann was one of those players in the middle of the organization’s depth chart.  Drafted in the 7th round of the 2009 draft out of Missouri State, Bauman, a lefty, showed good command at all levels, but lacked the name recognition of other arms in the Royals’ system like MIke Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi or Yordano Ventura.  Baumann pitched the last two years at the Double A Northwest Arkansas level and was moderately impressive with a 1.3 WHIP and an ERA over 4.00 in the Texas League. He also was the organization’s 2010 Mike Sweeney Award Winner for the best representation on and off the field by his work in the community.

Baumann was due to break camp with the AAA team when he was injured trying to avoid a collision and started the season on the Disabled List.  Unable to break camp with a club, Baumann was reactivated last week, but back down at the AA level.  Players could easily be stuck down in AA for the rest of the season in an event like this.

As is the case with any non-phenom in the Minors, getting to the next level is a combination of dedication and luck.  When Jarrod Dyson turned his ankle in Anaheim last week, David Lough was called up from the Storm Chasers creating a hole for Baumann.

Buddy Baumann walking off the field after a three inning performance. 5/12/13. Photo: Michelle Meade

“I was happy to see him back up here,” said Mike Jirschele, manager of the Storm Chasers. Baumann got the call while he was with the NWA Naturals and within hours of arriving back in Omaha, he reunited with his wife and Jirschele wasted no time getting him into the game.  “I liked how we went right at hitters. He did have the two walks, but he’s going to get the ball a lot up here.”

But Baumann’s smile in his postgame interview told the rest of the story.  “I was pumped when that phone call came.  Two nights ago when I got that call I was ecstatic.”  In AAA, the spotlight is brighter and continued good outings will likely catch the attention of the Royals.  When asked what Buddy needs to do to get up to Kansas City, in true baseball player form, he said, “I need to throw strikes.”

Minor league baseball is a tough, tough endeavor.  The days are long, the work is hard and there are few moments that you can truly feel great about your position in the organization.  But a two-inning, four strikeout performance in your AAA debut will be one of those moments for Buddy Baumann.  Baumann knows there is still much work to be done. He does have to limit his walks and continue to pound the strike zone.  And all those other little things in order to make the jump from triple A to the Big Leagues.

But you needn’t hear him tell the story.  His smile tells it all.

May 8, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) and right fielder Brandon Barnes (2) celebrate defeating the Los Angeles Angels in the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City concludes its six-game road trip in Houston after two series on the west coast through Anaheim and Oakland. The Royals will face the newest American League team in the Astros so we thought it be appropriate to chat with Climbing Tal’s Hill senior editor Greg Thurston.

Kings of Kauffman – How have fans adjusted to new play-by-play voice Robert Ford who use to host the pre and post game on Royals flagship?

Climbing Tal’s Hill – I can’t speak for all fans but I think Ford has done a good job. His delivery is smooth and accurate but he has a few “go to” terms that he repeats too often. I think he will get better with experience and we at CTH like him because he was kind enough to come on our podcast.

KOK – Houston not only is making the jump to the AL but to one of the tougher divisions how are fans adjusting?

CTH – Fans were not at all happy about the move and some have gone as far as boycotting the team. The transition has been tough for both the team and the fans.

KOK – Follow-up to question two, were fans in favor/liking being in the AL long term?

CTH – Short answer: no. But after kicking and screaming in the beginning, I have actually come around. It gives us a chance to see a lot of great teams and players that we didn’t get to see in the National League.

KOK – Who are the starters this coming week and Royals fans should look at?

CTH – Left-hander Dallas Keuchel gets the start on Monday. Keuchel has bounced between AAA and the majors a couple of times this season but has pitched well in his last two starts. Bud Norris is slated to start Tuesday. Norris left his last start with back spasms so it’s hard to say what we should expect from him. If he can’t get deep into the game look for Paul Clemens or Jose Cisnero to work in long relief. Jordan Lyles goes on Wednesday. Since being called up, Lyles has had three decent starts and one bad one. The Astros will be looking for him to get past the fifth inning, something he has yet to do this season.

KOK – Series predictions?

CTH – I’m going to predict the Royals will win games one and three with Guthrie and Shields on the mound. The Astros should be able to take the middle game against Wade Davis.

Here’s the other part of the Q&A at Climbing Tal’s Hill

Pitching Match-ups and game times –

Monday: Jeremy Guthrie v. (5-1, 2.82) v. Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 4.82), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports
Tuesday:  Wade Davis (3-3, 5.98) v. Bud Norris (4-4, 4.32), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports
Wednesday:  James Shields (2-4, 2.45) v. Jordan Lyles (1-1, 6.63), 7:05 pm/FSKC & 610 Sports

Anthony Seratelli

The Storm Chasers scored two runs in the bottom of the sixth to take the lead for good. With two outs, Xavier Nady doubled in one run and Anthony Seratelli followed with an RBI single (one of his two hits).

Max Ramirez went 2-for-4 and hit his 8th homerun of the season. Brett Hayes also went 2-for-4.

Brian Sanches got the win, as he pitched 2.1 scoreless innings of relief of Ryan Verdugo (5IP, 7H, 3R, BB, 5K). Sanches gave up back-to-back one out singles in the 8th inning and was replaced by Michael Mariot. He struck out three of the five batters he faced in picking up his fifth save of the season.

NW Arkansas lost to visiting Tulsa, 7-1. The Naturals scored first, in the 1st inning, on Brett Eibner‘s solo homerun.

Jason Adam had another okay start for the Naturals. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks over five innings (he threw 100 pitches). He struck out five, but allowed another homerun (his third this season). That homerun was a two out, two-run shot in the top of the second that gave the Drillers the lead.

The Naturals collected seven hits, two by Matt Fields (including a double).

*Former Natural Cole White pitched a scoreless inning of relief against his former teammates.

Wilmington won their series over visiting Myrtle Beach with a 2-1 win on Sunday. The Blue Rocks have off on Monday before welcoming first place Lynchburg to town for three games.

Sam Selman made it through five innings for just the third time this season (in eight starts) to pick up the win. He allowed just the one run on three hits and a walk while striking out six over five innings. Spencer Patton followed with two shutout innings before Scott Alexander got into trouble while trying to close out the game. With runners at second and third base and two outs in the ninth, Andrew Triggs induced a ground out to finish off the Pelicans.

For the Blue Rocks, Lane Adams went 2-for-4 with a double. The team only picked up four hits, including Justin Trapp‘s solo homerun in the 3rd inning that gave them the lead.

Lexington scored six runs in the top of the first and cruised to a 12-5 win over West Virginia. They now head home to play Asheville for three games.

In their six-run first, the Legends picked up four hits, walked twice, and was hit once. Nick Cuckovich cleared the bases with two outs off the Power’s new pitcher.

The Legends only collected nine hits, with Ethan Chapman being the lone player with two hits.

Bryan Brickhouse was the beneficiary of all the run support. He allowed four runs (two earned) on six hits and three walks over five innings. Cory Hall followed with two scoreless innings of relief before Alec Mills allowed an unearned run over the final two innings.

I started the year trying to be less reactionary to how the Royals performed. Daniel Wesley on Twitter characterized a lot of reactions to Royals games by describing wins as parades and losses as meltdowns. I think that’s apt, as I recall the Royals losing two games in Chicago and many Royals fans reacting as if the sky was falling. Later, the Royals were 17-10 and another group (with some overlap) was ready to put down playoff ticket deposits.

May 17, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) throws his bat after popping out against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning at O.Co Coliseum. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Kansas City Royals 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been able to stay out of those swings for the most part. That doesn’t mean I’m not invested in the games or the results, but I think the teeth-gnashing, end-of-the-world goes too far, and I think the “we won’t lose again” crowd goes too far the other way. Teams lose games. Teams lose games they should have won. This happens every year, to every team, ever.

But the last two games are testing my patience.

The Royals invested heavily in this season. They added $12 million in payroll in snagging Ervin Santana from the Angels, a move that really shouldn’t have had long-term implications attached to it. The Royals didn’t get him with the idea of extending him (or I don’t think they had). They signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year deal, a pretty good move for this year (at just $5 million) but with two extra years. Then they made the big move, trading their top prospect (Wil Myers), a former top prospect (Mike Montgomery), and another darn good prospect (Jake Odorizzi) for James Shields and Wade Davis.

All three pitchers have been as advertised or better. Shields has pitched like the Ace Dayton Moore claimed him to be at the time of the trade. Santana has surprised just about everyone. Guthrie has been solid. And over the last two games, Shields and Santana were great with the exception of a couple of batters.

And the frustration comes from the fact that they shouldn’t have to fear one or two mistakes making the difference in the game. If fans are this frustrated, I can’t imagine what they feel, even if they’d never say anything. I’ve talked about Shields’s lack of run support before, but Santana has seen his team score 21 runs in his eight starts. Over his last three, he’s taken the loss after the Royals scored just three runs. Then just two runs. And last night just one.

This after the Royals had put up only one run in Shields’s start at Oakland. They both lost 2-1.

Basically, if Shields or Santana give up three or more runs lately, the Royals are likely to lose (even though, oddly, the Royals have won  a game when he’d given up four runs and three runs).

That falls on the offense. Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Salvador Perez have been good. Alcides Escobar started out hitting, and hasn’t lately. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are lost (and I think I’ve been among the more patient in regards to both of them). Billy Butler is making his way back. Right field and second base are pits.

The Royals biggest offensive acquisition was Miguel Tejada, who hadn’t even played in the majors in 2012.

They’ve shown some signs. In Baltimore they got some homers. Against the Angels, they showed more patience. But those are exceptions, not trends. They’re last in homers. They’re last in walks. So if they aren’t putting together a bunch of singles, they aren’t scoring.

And despite all of that, they’re still 20-19 going into Sunday’s game. It feels strange to be a game above .500 and feel like the bottom is going to drop out – this is the Royals after all – but that’s the feeling. As has been pointed out by Sam Mellinger, we’ve seen this before and the sequels to horror stories generally end in similar ways to the original. The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 games.

There’s a point where it just gets old. Where optimism is just lying to yourself. When the best pitchers on the team don’t offer hope because you can’t figure the offense is going to fall apart again. I don’t want to be resigned to that. I want to feel good watching them play, but at some point, even the most patient fan can find themselves going Randy Quaid on their team.

I’m not there yet. But…

Chris Dwyer took the loss, as he allowed seven runs (four earned) on seven hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six. After George Sherrill allowed two runs in the seventh, Buddy Baumann pitched two hitless innings of relief. He was just promoted from Double-A.

NW Arkansas broke their six-game losing skid with an 11-4 win over Tulsa. The Naturals collected 11 hits, but went just 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position.

Orlando Calixte got the Naturals on the board in the first with a two-run homerun, his first of the season. Matt Fields hit his tenth homerun of the season, a solo shot in the fourth. Brett Eibner hit his first homerun since returning from the DL, a two out, two-run shot in the Naturals five run 7th inning. Eibner also threw a runner out at the plate in the 6th inning with the bases loaded.

Brooks Pounders earned the win, as he pitched to two batters in the sixth. He did not allow a run on three hits and two walks while striking out four. He threw 70 pitches, 43 for strikes.

The Drillers got their four runs in the 8th inning against reliever Andy Ferguson.

*Outfielder Carlo Testa was activated off the DL and his return to the lineup will be his first action of the season.

In a back-and-forth affair across the middle innings, Wilmington beat visiting Myrtle Beach, 5-4. The Blue Rocks took the lead for good in the bottom of the 6th inning on Kenny Swab‘s two out, two-run homerun (he also drove in two runs in the second with a two out triple).

After starter Kyle Smith only lasted 4.2 innings, Cody Fassold picked up the win. He allowed one run on two hits and three walks over 3.1 innings. He struck out four.

Outfielder Alex Llanos picked up his first hit with the Blue Rocks in just his second game with the team. He also threw a runner out at third base.

Manager Vance Wilson was ejected in the 4th inning after arguing about a homerun call (Kellin Deglan of MB hit a two-run homerun to right field).

Lexington split their doubleheader in West Virginia. The Legends lost Game 1 by a 3-2 score. They scored two runs in the top of the first inning on Fred Ford‘s homerun. It was their only hit of the game.

Daniel Stumpf was the hard luck loser, as he pitched the complete game. He allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and one walk. He struck out six.

In Game 2, the Legends won 6-4. Their runs came between the third and fifth innings and five different players drove in runs.

Adalberto Mondesi, Humberto Arteaga, and Alex Marquez each picked up two hits.

Aroni Nina picked up his first win of the season, as he allowed two runs on four hits and a walk over five innings. He struck out two.

Manager Brian Buchanan was ejected in the 5th inning.

The Royals had been mum about his condition at first, but he’s since headed back to Kansas City for an MRI and the early prognosis is that he’ll be ready for a return in 2-to-4 weeks. High ankle sprains can be tricky, and the Royals don’t want Dyson to rush back and re-injure himself. Dyson, at least, is in good spirits:

Thanks everyone for the love, mrzoombiya will be ok and will have a healthy return soon, I want to wish my team the best of luck on the road

— JarrodDyson (@mrzoombiya) May 17, 2013

David Lough filled in fine in his first game back in the big leagues, going 2-4 with the Royals only RBI and he offered an outfield assist on a Brandon Moss double attempt. If the Royals are going to continue to split time between Jeff Francoeur and a left-handed bat, Lough’s first game is at least encouraging.

Jorge Bonifacio with Wilmington in their 2013 home opener (Jen Nevius).

Speaking of right field, key Royals prospect Jorge Bonifacio will be on the shelf for 6-to-8 weeks with a broken bone in his hand. That pauses what was turning into a big season in High A Wilmington, as Bonifacio – ranked sixth among Royals prospects by Baseball America – had a .325/.404/.452 line in 34 games in the Carolina League. With Wil Myers traded and Bubba Starling a level lower and struggling, he’s the next impact outfield prospect the Royals have (or was prior to the injury).

Bonifacio turns 20 years old next month, so the injury doesn’t throw him way off track, but a you still want a top prospect to be on the field rather than recuperating. He’s got an advanced approach for his age and makes good contact. With a few mechanical tweaks, he may turn into a bigger power hitter, as well.

Finally, the only other two Kansas City Royals on the disabled list aside from Dyson are Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Both are on the rehab track after Tommy John surgery last summer.

Duffy recently threw a four inning simulated game on May 16th and continues to do other workouts. Paulino threw a three inning game on the 17th and a four inning game is his next step. It also appears that both pitchers are going on a normal rest schedule to get in line with a regular starting schedule. Duffy’s surgery occurred on June 13th. Paulino’s was on July 3rd. Typically, it’s at least 11 months for a pitcher to come back to regular game action after tearing their UCL. Duffy’s velocity was back into the mid-90s earlier this month, so he may not miss a beat when he comes back.

Omaha lost to visiting Las Vegas, 7-3. The two teams combined to hit five homeruns. Will Smith took the loss, as he allowed four runs on six hits, two walks, and two hit batters over six innings.

Adam Moore and Willy Taveras each collected two hits and hit a solo homerun. Taveras also tripled (yet did not score). He even had an outfield assist.

*In roster news, Blaine Boyer was let go so he could play in Japan. Atahualpa Severino was activated from the DL. He allowed an unearned run in his one inning of work.

NW Arkansas lost their sixth straight game, as they finished up their road trip with a 5-2 loss in Tulsa. They picked up six hits, but went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and hit into three double plays.

Noel Arguelles lost his seventh game of the season, as he allowed four runs (three earned) over five innings. Three of those runs came via the long ball.

The Naturals scored their runs in the 7th inning and only picked up one hit. The first run came via an error and the second via a sac fly.

John Lamb

Wilmington was pounded late, as they lost at home to Myrtle Beach, 12-0. Even with all the runs scoring, the game was still only a little over two and a half hours.

John Lamb had another sub-par start, as he allowed six runs on seven hits over six-plus innings. On the positive side, he struck out eight and did not walk a batter. He also settled down after the Pelicans’ four-run first and the final two runs scored after he was pulled from the game. Four of the six hits he allowed came in the first, including a three-run homerun.

The Blue Rocks offense collected six hits, two from Alex Hudak (who batted ninth). They went 0-for-3 with runners in scoring position.

Lexington lost on the road to West Virginia, 3-1. The game started in a delay (1 hour and 33 minutes). Both teams scored single runs in the first inning, before the Power scored single runs in the sixth and seventh innings.

The Legends collected just two hits, a Nick Cuckovich single in the second and a Fred Ford single in the sixth.

Colin Rodgers only lasted 4.2 innings in the start. He allowed one run on five hits and two walks. Ali Williams took the loss, as he allowed the go ahead run in the sixth (1.1IP, 3H, R, BB, 0K). Daniel Hernandez pitched the final two innings and allowed a run (it was only the second time this season he had allowed runs).

Series Preview –

The Royals alternated wins in Anaheim while taking the series against the Halos and are 20-17 this season. Oakland is finishing a six game home stand which began with dropping two-of-three against Texas earlier this week.

Probable Pitching Matchups –

Friday, May 17 (9:07 pm): James Shields (2-3, 3.04) v. Jarrod Parker (2-5, 6.39)
- Shields is coming off a tough loss last Saturday against the Yankees at the K
- His career record against the A’s is 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA and is 2-2 in Oakland

Saturday, May 18 (8:07 pm): Ervin Santana (3-2, 2.79) v. Tommy Milone (3-5, 3.71)
- Santana is sitting on 99 careers wins
- In his career he’s 6-1 at the Coliseum with a 2.08 ERA in 12 outings (10 starts)

Sunday, May 19 (3:07 pm): Luis Mendoza (1-2, 6.00) v. A.J. Griffin (4-3, 3.48)
- Last time out Mendoza picked up his first win of 2013 at Los Angeles
- The Dozer went six innings for the third time this season on Monday while striking out six Angels

2012 Results –

Kansas City won the season series 5-4 against Oakland in 2012 in what was a close series, KC outscored the A’s 22-20 in nine meetings. The Athletics held a 2-1 lead when the teams played at the Coliseum in the lone trip the Royals made to the Bay Area both losses were by a run. Fans will remember the series finale going 12 innings and Jonathan Broxton being unable to protect the lead.

TV/Radio –

All three games are on Fox Sports Kansas City with Ryan Lefebvre and Rex Hudler on the call with Joel Goldberg hosting the pre and post game. On 610 Sports Radio will be Steve Physioc and Steve Stewart.

2013 Schedule v. Athletics –

May 17-19, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
July 5-7, Kauffman Stadium

Team Game Notes –

Kansas City
Oakland

First, let’s recall the Greinke bullpen move success.  He moved to the bullpen after leaving baseball for awhile and was quite good out of the pen for the Royals in 2007.  He went from a guy with a low 90s fastball to a mid 90s guy who could reach back and get a 97 or 98 when needed.  In 2008 when he headed back into the rotation, Greinke lost some of the velocity that he showed in the pen, which is to be expected, but his overall velocity was improved from his time before the switch.  Now his fastball was sitting 93 or so and he still showed the ability to go up and hit 96 or 97 at times.  Wade Davis showed the velocity gain in his transition to relief, but this year has not been able to maintain any of the gains when starting again.

The Fangraphs velocity chart may show something even worse.  Last year Davis’ fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, and toward the end of the year was sitting above 95 consistently.  This also lead to a massive spike in strike out rate from 5.14K/9 in 2011 to 11.13 last year.  Looking at this year, his velocity is back down to an average fastball just above 91 MPH.  That is his lowest average ever.  Now it does show that his velocity tends to tick up a bit as the season wears on as a starter and as a reliever, so maybe he will be 92 to 93 in the middle of summer.  If that happens though, that would be more in line with 2010 and 11 when he was a back of the rotation guy at best, and his strike out rate this year is showing the same sitting at 6.64 per 9.

There has been a major change to his pitch mix.  He has been using a cutter that he hadn’t thrown in the past.  Davis has thrown the cutter 16 to 19 percent of the time and so his two and four seam fastballs have been used a lot less.  None of his pitches have done very well based on pitch values and most of this comes from an increased line drive and home run rate.  One of the problems with the cutter, in my opinion anyway, is that it might make his change up less effective.  The speed differential between the two pitches is only about 2 MPH, 88 down to 86, so the batters may not be thrown off by the change at all.  Part of that might also be because his change has been on average 1 MPH faster than last year too.

For Davis to be effective like last year something is going to need to change.  Right now he looks way too much like the bad Wade Davis that Tampa Bay took out of their rotation and nothing like the good Wade Davis they had in their bullpen last year.  The answer is probably not as simple as getting away from the cutter, but that may be one place to start.  Hopefully as summer comes his velocity will come back as it has before and help some, but it would be nice to see him show some signs that the successes of 2012 in the pen can be moved into the starting role.

Upon further review, however, the way in which Gordon is putting up those stats is unlike any other in his career.

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Gordon’s on-base percentage sits at .353, which is right around his career average. But when you remember that his batting average is only 23 points lower than that, you see that Gordon is actually not excelling in that department. Prior to this season, the smallest separation between his AVG and OBP was 67 points, in his rookie season. In that 2007 campaign, Gordon put up a walk percentage of 6.8, which, prior to this season, was the lowest of his career, by far.

Gordon’s current walk percentage? A paltry 3.6.

In 167 plate appearances, Gordon has drawn 6 walks. For comparison, Alcides Escobar, a player who has never been fond of taking a walk, has already received 7 free passes in 165 plate appearances. Mike Moustakas, who has never posted a double digit walk percentage, not even in the minor leagues, has twice as many walks as Gordon this year in almost 30 fewer plate appearances.

So what is it that has transformed Gordon’s walking ability into that of Jeff Francoeur?

One way to attempt to explain it is by looking at how many strikes Gordon is seeing in his at bats. According to pitch f/x data, Gordon sees pitches in the strike zone 49.3% of the time. That number is basically right in line with the major league average and his own career average, so it’s not that he’s seeing more strikes. Since we know he’s seeing the same percentage of strikes, we can correctly assume that his reduced walk rate can be in part due to him swinging at a greater percentage of pitches overall. To put it simply, swinging at more pitches means you generally will not walk as often. His 2013 Swing% is 45.8, which is the highest it’s been since his rookie year. Still, his career average in that category is 44.8, so it is tough to see how that alone could cause such a drastic drop in his walk percentage.

The real differences can be seen when you break his Swing% down based on whether the balls he swings at are in or out of the strike zone. Gordon’s Z-Swing% (percentage of balls in the strike zone the batter swings at) sits at 59.5, which is the lowest of his career by 1.5 percentage points. His O-Swing% (percentage of balls out of the strike zone the batter swings at) is 32.5. Excluding his rookie season (31.3), the next highest O-Swing% of his career was 27.8.

Basically, Gordon is swinging at fewer strikes, while also swinging at many more balls. That, my friends, is not a recipe for success. Unless, of course, you’re Alex Gordon in 2013.

Somehow, Gordon has combined uncharacteristically poor plate discipline with fewer line drives and more ground balls than his career averages to produce a stat line like that of a player deserving of an All-Star bid. Oh, and did I mention that he’s destroying left-handed pitching, too?

For his career, Gordon has averaged .250/.320/.406 against lefties. This season, he’s hitting .424/.443/.644 when facing southpaws. Granted, that’s in only 61 plate appearances, but still, that’s really, really good. It’s also really, really strange.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Looking for another excellent part of Gordon’s 2013 season so far? How about his “clutch” stats? He is currently batting .441/.459/.676 with runners in scoring position. In late and close situations, Gordon has a .964 OPS. In high leverage situations, he’s got an OPS of 1.032. I’m not totally hip to these things, but I think the kids today* would say that this year’s Gordon has “the clutch gene.”

I don’t care if I’m not old enough to say that. West coast road trips always make me feel older than I actually am.

With all of these weird statistical anomalies in Gordon’s season, at least we know his defense is still solid. Or is it?

In Gordon’s two Gold Glove seasons of 2011 and 2012, he posted UZRs of 12.2 and 14.6, respectively. This year, his UZR is -0.7. Of course, defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt anyway, particularly in such small sample sizes, so the negative defensive value Gordon has supposedly provided is nothing more than something to chuckle about. I mean, Francoeur has a UZR of 1.2, and he plays right field with a piano on his back and cleats full of lead.

But what do we make of all the other statistical abnormalities?

I personally find it hard to believe Gordon won’t start walking at a higher rate at some point this season. Players in their prime normally don’t just lose all knowledge of the strike zone out of the blue. I don’t know if he’ll get all the way up to his career average BB% of 9.6, but I do think some improvement will come. And if Gordon is hoping to maintain his high level of production, he is going to need that walk rate to climb. His current BABIP is .392, and even though Gordon hits the ball hard enough to maintain an above average BABIP, we have to expect some regression with his batting average. If he can start walking a bit more, a drop in his average won’t hurt much since his OBP will remain strong.

I would also expect some regression to the mean when Gordon faces lefties. Hopefully that will be countered by an improvement in his line versus right handers, though. His current OPS against righties is roughly 75 points lower than his career average, so it stands to reason that Gordon could maintain his overall numbers while his reverse split begins to normalize. Similarly, Gordon likely won’t be able to keep up his torrid pace of hitting with runners in scoring position, but his numbers with the bases empty probably won’t stay as low, either (currently .638 OPS, vs his career number of .788). The overall effect of the regression should be relatively neutral.

While he’s doing it in a somewhat odd fashion, Gordon is having another extremely good season. He should be an All-Star this year, and he will probably be deserving of getting some top 5 MVP votes after the season is over. That’s assuming, of course, Gordon listens to his manager’s plea for a more patient approach.

That’s an unfair comparison, of course. Trout and Harper look like generational talents and while Starling has incredible tools and athleticism, he’s lacking in polish and experience. Those were significant questions when he was drafted and they exist still today.

Humberto Arteaga, Elier Hernandez and Bubba Starling wait for their turn in the cage. Photo: Michelle Meade

But the Royals are looking at a potential solution that they hope will improve Starling’s development and performance. Reports are that Starling is heading back to Kansas City to be reevaluated by an ophthalmologist to determine if he’s a candidate for LASIK surgery.

There are some that may think that this is a desperation move by the Royals to make something happen, but given the context of Starling’s weaknesses, it’s a legitimate and appropriate option to explore. Jason Parks, the prospect guru at Baseball Prospectus, has seen Starling multiple times, and wrote an extensive report on his development with the thesis that Starling lacks some of the automatic pitch recognition abilities that athletes who had played baseball exclusively or more regularly earlier in their careers. Starling, a multi-sport superstar in high school, turned down a football scholarship to Nebraska to sign with the Royals and also played basketball at Gardner-Edgerton High School. Baseball wasn’t his only sport (and some may suspect not his best either).

So given that conclusion, LASIK surgery could help Starling immensely. J.J. Picollo mentioned that Starling has had trouble seeing the ball well at night and Parks has observed him having trouble against right-handed pitchers in recognizing pitches.

This isn’t the first time the Royals have gone down this road. In 2009, Eric Hosmer had LASIK surgery while recovering from a finger injury. According to a Dick Kaegel article, he’d already tried glasses and the adjustment wasn’t smooth. In August, he was hurt, so he had the procedure done, came back for two games in September and hit the Arizona Fall League. He had hit .241/.334/.361 in the 2009 season across both A ball levels. In 2010, after the surgery, he hit .354/.429/.545 and had 42 extra base hits in 87 Carolina League games. Do you credit a healthy hand, LASIK or both?

I think it certainly helped, and I think the procedure will help Starling. But there’s no guarantee. There are studies to suggest that in younger patients, due to continuing growth of the cornea, the procedure’s benefits can regress within just a couple of years. One such involved a high school junior who had LASIK surgery but her age required undercorrection and she needed a second procedure after trouble reading at the end of college. Many ophthalmologists want to wait for a patient to be 21 years old and/or with stable eye refraction. Bubba Starling turns 21 in August. Hosmer’s procedure two months before he’d turn 20.

With that in mind, I think it’s reasonable to say that Starling will see some improvement, but it’s possible that he’ll need a second procedure down the line (and perhaps Hosmer is due for one as well, given that he’s struggled for a while now and is a handful of years removed from his surgery). It’s a safe procedure and has a quick recovery time, so there isn’t the threat of missing much time if Starling goes through with the surgery.

And he’s got a good shot of coming back better than ever.

May 15, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) walks off the field after he was injured trying to catch Los Angeles Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo (not pictured) homer in the eighth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals haven’t provided an official update on Dyson’s condition, and with an off day between series, there were no pregame media sessions to talk with Ned Yost. The clues point towards a Dyson DL stint, though.*

First, Dyson’s best asset is his speed. If his ankle is hurt, he can’t utilize that weapon and it limits his ability to contribute. It makes sense to sit him for two weeks and let him fully recover, then come back at full strength than to try to manage the injury and either aggravate it, get subpar results or have him overcompensate and hurt something else.

Second, David Lough wasn’t in the lineup in tonight’s Triple A matchup between Omaha and Las Vegas. Then Minda Haas noted that he wasn’t even in the dugout and Lee Warren heard from Storm Chasers manager Mike Jirschele that Lough was out for a “potential call up“. Bob Dutton all but confirmed all of this later on Twitter.

Dyson was starting to take playing time from Jeff Francoeur and taking advantage of it. Ned Yost says they weren’t heading for a platoon between Dyson and Francoeur, but it was sure starting to look that way. Dyson was hitting .268/.286/.561 (!) in 42 plate appearances in 2013 and has matched Francoeur in extra base hits in a third of the at bats. The defense benefits with Dyson in the game, as Lorenzo Cain is a more favorable option than Francoeur in right, with a strong enough arm for the position but significantly better range.

Lough was hitting .340/.393/.477 in 171 plate appearances for Omaha. He spent all of last September up with the big league club, hitting .237/.292/.305 in 20 games. If he does come up (as expected) it’s not certain if the Royals will still split time as they had been, but Kansas City will face Oakland right-hander Jarrod Parker tomorrow. If Lough (a lefty) is in the lineup, that could be a signal that they’ll keep rolling with the not-platoon-that-is-basically-a-platoon.

*UPDATE: The Royals have now officially made the move, according to Bob Dutton.

Donnie Joseph (Photo: Minda Haas)

They collected 11 hits, but the Storm Chasers went just 3-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Irving Falu, Christian Colon, and Anthony Seratelli each had two hits.

Despite a sub-par start, Justin Marks won his first Triple-A game of the season. He allowed three runs on eight hits and five walks over five innings. He did strike out seven. Louis Coleman was solid once again, as he pitched two scoreless innings of relief.

NW Arkansas was swept by Arkansas, as they lost the finale by a 2-0 score. The Travelers scored two runs in the bottom of the first inning off Naturals starter Yordano Ventura. They put together three straight two out doubles. He settled down from there to retire 16 of the last 17 batters he faced.

However, the Naturals offense was held in check. They collected just three hits and did not have a runner reach second base.

The Naturals now head to Tulsa for one game before returning home to play Tulsa for three games.

*In roster news, Brett Eibner was activated from the DL, as fellow outfielder Alex Llanos was sent to Wilmington. Eibner went 1-for-4 with a strikeout in his return.

Another sub-par start from Kyle Zimmer led to another Wilmington loss, as they lost 7-4 in Potomac. Zimmer lasted just four innings and allowed five runs on six hits and three walks. He struck out five.

The Blue Rocks offense was held in check, as they went just 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Cheslor Cuthbert and Alex Hudak each collected two hits in the loss.

They now return home to begin a six-game homestand, beginning on Friday night against Myrtle Beach.

Lexington was rained out in West Virginia. The two teams will play a doubleheader on Saturday.

What’s a manager to do?  Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

For all the talk of Ned Yost tinkering with lineups, and yeah…when you score 11 runs one night, you might want to just go ahead and stick with that…some of the blame has to be placed squarely on the shoulders of Dayton Moore. When will we have a player hit the big leagues and become an instant star? So far, under the Moore regime, it’s yet to happen, and we could be waiting a while.

Somewhere along the way – either in the scouting and draft day decisions, or in post-draft development, there is some kind of breakdown happening. At first, it looked like it was just the pitching. When that started falling apart, we still had the bats to look forward to: Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella, and so on. The future looked bright. Well…the future is now, and it’s very possibly not as bright as we’d hoped.

Myers is gone of course, as part of the big James Shields trade. That’s fine. I’m on board with that move. While we won’t reap the benefits of Myers’ bat here in KC, he may never pan out at all, and in the meantime, we’ve got at least two seasons of an ace pitcher. I’m okay with that. My philosophy with prospects is simple: you need them to help your big league club improve. Whether that means they physically do so, or they bring back other players via trade that help…I’m okay with either. Myers developed enough to fetch us a legit ace and a guy in Wade Davis with the potential to be a pretty solid starter himself.

But Moose, Hosmer, and Giavotella…well…they aren’t helping much. At all. And prize homegrown draft pick Bubba Starling is hitting .213 through 35 games in Low A ball. And Christian Colon, the first round pick, who was thought to be a safe bet, is batting .226 through 30 games in Omaha this year. And…well…you get the point.

So where’s the problem? Scouting? Draft strategy? Player development? It’s hard to pin down, and honestly is probably a combination of all three, but there’s definitely something going very wrong between draft day and what happens on the way to the big leagues. If they even make it to the big leagues.

So…you can see where Yost might struggle with the lineup, given that a good chunk of the core players are not living up to their hype. What about Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Absolutely…they are great players. Drafted by Allard Baird. Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar? Sure. I’ll give the Royals a little credit here. They came over in the Zack Greinke trade, so technically the Milwaukee Brewers mostly developed them, but the Royals did stick with Escobar through some ups and downs in 2011, and he blossomed last season as an all-around player. I guess he was kind of developed by the Royals.

We love George, but fans are getting tired of having to “remember when”…Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

All that said, I was watching a replay of George Brett’s Hall of Fame induction speech earlier – happy birthday George – and he said something that struck a chord with me. He was talking about Whitey Herzog coming over to manage the Royals, and how Herzog told Brett “You’re going to play third and hit third every day” and what a boost of confidence that gave. So…while the batters are scuffling in the here and now, and running so hot and cold you never know what to expect, maybe it’s time to try the Herzog route. Tell these guys that no matter what, here’s the lineup. No more shuffling Cain from leadoff to second to fifth to sixth. No more “where should Gordon hit?” Just pick a spot. First? Great. Third? Fine.

Some will argue that Yost and the organization have been too patient with some of these guys. But this is the team we’ve got, for better or worse. And hey…don’t get me wrong, I think Moose and Hosmer will probably still be really good ballplayers. It might be later rather than sooner (remember how long it took Gordon to hit his stride), and if that’s the case, this year likely won’t turn out the way team officials and fans envisioned. But remember, when you’re criticizing Yost, he’s not been given the ideal roster to work with here. Ned’s the easy target, of course…but we’ve got to look past the day-to-day management of the big league roster and figure out what’s going wrong with player development, or this fan base will continue facing year after year of frustration.

And yes, I titled this article with the thought of a new season of Arrested Development about to air on Netflix, so go waste 10 minutes. Enjoy.

It was just a 2-1 score when Sugar Ray Marimon left the game after six innings. He allowed five hits (two solo homeruns) and three walks while striking out seven.

Wilmington blew a 6-2 lead and fell in Potomac, 9-6.

Parker Morin hit his first homerun of the season, a two-run shot in the 4th inning. Jared Schlehuber hit a three-run shot in the 6th inning (he went 3-for-4). Lane Adams and Kenny Diekroeger each picked up two hits.

Spencer Patton made the spot start and allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and one walk over three innings. Scott Alexander followed by allowing two runs on four hits over three innings, but the Blue Rocks were still winning. Malcom Culver and Robinson Yambati allowed five runs on four hits and two walks over the game’s final two innings.

*Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth started in right field and batted second for the P-Nats. He threw a runner out at the plate on a fly ball out to end an inning and got himself into a rundown to move a runner up and allow a runner to score. He went 1-for-2 at the plate.

Lexington swept Kannapolis with a 9-2 win in Wednesday afternoon’s finale. The Legends now travel to West Virginia for four games starting on Thursday.

Both teams put up two-spots in the fourth, but the Legends scored three runs each in the sixth and ninth innings.

The bottom two in Lexington’s order, Alex Marquez and Nick Cuckovich, went a combined 5-for-7 with two runs scored and two RBIs. Both of Cuckovich’s hits were doubles. Fred Ford went 3-for-4 with two runs scored and three RBIs. He hit a two out, two-run homerun in the 4th inning that tied the game at 2-2.

Christian Binford picked up the win, as he allowed two runs on five hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out four. Chas Byrne struck out four over his two inning relief outing.

White had been broadcasting alongside Hall of Famer Denny Mathews since 1973 when he was let go in 1998 and replaced by Ryan Lefebvre, but Royals fans, fifteen years after his last call for the Royals, still remember him fondly.

The thing about following a team, especially over a long stretch of time, is the familiarity you gain from the day to day attention to games. For countless hours, the same voices are invited into your living room, office, garage, or what have you. The players change, sometimes even the stadium, but when you’re lucky, the same voices remain.

For me, I remember summers where my life was wrapped up in summer rec league baseball, mowing lawns, riding bikes and Denny and Fred calling the Royals. There, after the Guys Snacks and Kansas City Life commercials, White would read the lineups, call the action, and tell the story with Mathews. I’ve never met Fred White, but by all accounts he was a great friend and person. His passing feels similar to that of Paul Splittorff two years ago, even though White was farther removed from the booth than Splittorff had been before he left us.

Numerous Royals fans expressed their appreciation for White after the news came out (many others popped up in a Facebook thread as well), and many of us share the same sentiments and memories:

Fred, The world is a better place because you were in it.

— Steve Physioc (@StevePhysioc) May 15, 2013

Rest In Peace Fred White. Your voice will always remain in my mind, as a part of endless joyful, youthful, summer memories. — Nate Bukaty (@nate_bukaty) May 15, 2013

In the background of some of our old Super 8 reels is Denny and Fred calling #Royals games. Literally the soundtrack of my childhood @royals — Daniel Wesley (@DanielSWesley) May 15, 2013

Sad to hear about Fred White. If you grew up in KC, Denny and Fred were pretty much summer.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) May 15, 2013

#RIPFredWhite A generation of the #Royals franchise fading. Will be remembered fondly…

— anonymous bosch (@theshortandlong) May 15, 2013

The way Fred White read the starting lineups was beautiful. My favorite thing about him. — Brian McGannon (@BrianMcGannon) May 15, 2013

RIP Fred White, who passed away from melanoma, same as Paul Splittorff did. I regret never getting the opportunity to meet either man. — Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) May 15, 2013

I loved listening to Fred call #Royals games on the radio. Losing sucks, but it’s made easier by great broadcasters.

— Kevin Agee (@Kevin_Agee) May 15, 2013

A transistor radio, Fred and Denny calling a Royals game, and summer — the perfect baseball storm.

— Lee Warren (@OmahaBaseball) May 15, 2013

This. “@wudaddy45: @chriskamler @royals On many summer nights with a hidden radio under my pillow, Fred and Denny were my baseball lullaby.”

— Chris Kamler (@ChrisKamler) May 15, 2013

September nights… West coast baseball… Pennant races… Fred White was half my bedtime soundtrack. Thank you, Fred. For everything.

— Craig Brown (@royalsauthority) May 15, 2013

You must listen to White’s call after the Royals had won Game 6 of the 1985 World Series. Starting at the 10:28 mark, Denny talks about destiny and White puts the perfect touch on it at the end (hat tip to Lee Warren for finding this and passing it along on Twitter):

The Royals honored White’s memory the same way they did Splittorff’s two years ago – with a half inning of silence.

#Royals dedicate first half-inning to silence to honor Fred White. Pretty cool.

— Greg Hall (@greghall24) May 16, 2013

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From the chart you can see that the Royals have mostly been scoring well above or well below their average.  With an average of slightly below four and a half and a fairly normal distribution you would expect the most common outcome of a game to be in the four or five run categories, the two closest to average.  That is not the case.  The most common out come is three runs or two runs, and six and nine have happened more often than four and five.  This is a pretty skewed distribution.

Last year the distribution did have some of the same characteristics if you look at the next chart, but there were a lot more four run games, and a maximum of 11, which the Royals have already matched and exceeded this year.  The five, six, and seven run games last year showed up more often than one or two run games, but so far this year they only equal the two run game total.  What this says to the optimist and statistician in me is that as our sample of games for 2013 grows, this distribution will become more normally distributed.  For that to happen it would mean a lot more four to seven run games in lieu of one to three run games.  Also, the Royals have a winning record (dead on their Pythagorean expectation to boot) despite all of the low scoring games, so this could indicate a lot of good to come.

March 12, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals coach George Brett before a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

I, like many a Royals fan, grew up with George Brett in mind as the quintessential ballplayer.

I remember reading a quote from before his playing days were over about how he envisioned his last at bat as a big leaguer:

I want to hit a routine grounder to second and run all out to first base, then get thrown out by a half step. I want to leave an example to the young guys that that’s how you play the game: ALL OUT.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Major League Baseball legend and former Kansas City Royals player George Brett at bat during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Say what you want about grit, moxie, the intangibles. They’re overrated and overemphasized when the player isn’t actually that good. They’re offered as a consolation. “Well he can’t hit but look at him get dirty!” George Brett wasn’t that player. He was down the line on the close plays and looking for a spot to turn a double into a triple on the gappers. That’s a hell of an example to a young kid in the midwest and I always felt kind of okay with my last organized baseball at bat being a grounder to second where I ran all the way through. It fit after years of following Brett’s career.

But c’mon. I’m not alone. There are hundreds of kids named Brett in Kansas City who are graduating high school or college today simply because their parents were caught up in Brett-mania in his heyday. I’m pretty sure he really could have outdrawn Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.

May 15th is George Brett’s birthday – his 60th – and for all the scatalogical references, the weird spring training interviews, and the stories of busted clubhouse sinks, he’s the player I would look to when I needed an example of how to play the game.

So I’ve promised some trivia, and below is a table showing what George Brett’s batting average on his birthday every year as a big leaguer as well as what he had hit on the day of the occasion in each season. In many cases, Brett was injured and thus, did not play on his birthday, so in the 20 possible years, he only played in 12 possible birthday games, and one of those days was a double header (though he did go a combined 4-9 that day).

Happy Birthday #5. Lay off the crab legs…

The Storm Chasers hit three homeruns, but all three were solo shots. They collected ten hits, but only four were for extra bases (including a double). They went just 2-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

Johnny Giavotella and Max Ramirez, the 3-4 hitters, went a combined 4-for-9 with two homeruns, three runs scored, and four RBIs. Ramirez is coming off earning Pacific Coast League Player of the Week honors.

NW Arkansas lost to Arkansas, 4-1. The loss came after the Naturals took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first on Manny Pina‘s two out RBI single. It is hard to win a game when you only collect two hits and commit three errors.

Their second hit was a one out single by Rey Navarro in the fifth, but he was thrown out trying to steal second base on a strikeout to end the inning. The Naturals did not have another base runner.

Despite struggling with command early in the game, Naturals starter Jason Adam rebounded to last six innings. At one point early on, he had thrown 63 pitches, 33 for strikes (he ended up with 103 pitches, 58 for strikes). He retired ten in a row to end his outing.

Wilmington won the first game of their series in Potomac by a 7-3 final.

Aaron Brooks earned his first win of the season, as he allowed three runs on six hits and two walks over 6.2 innings. The P-Nats scored all of their runs in the bottom of the 5th inning, as they sent seven men to the plate (four hits and a sac fly). Wilmington came right back with a three-spot of their own in the top of the sixth to retake the lead.

The Blue Rocks 5-6 hitters (Jared Schlehuber and Jack Lopez) went a combined 5-for-9 with five runs scored. Schlehuber hit his first homerun of the season, a solo shot that gave them their first lead in the 4th inning.

*In roster news, the Blue Rocks lost outfield prospect Jorge Bonifacio for about 6-8 weeks with a broken left hamate bone. Bonifacio played on both Saturday and Sunday in Frederick and went 6-for-8. Tyler Chism took his place on the roster, as he was added from extended spring training. In his first game in High-A, Chism went 1-for-5 batting ninth and in left field.

Lexington beat Kannapolis, 6-1 behind another solid start from Miguel Almonte. Almonte allowed a solo homerun in the 6th inning, the only run he allowed over seven innings. He allowed just three hits and three walks while striking out two. Clayton Schulz pitched two perfect innings of relief with two strikeouts.

Adrian Morales went 2-for-4 with an RBI single in the fourth and an RBI double in the 6th inning. Ethan Chapman, who moved up to the second spot in the order while playing centerfield, went 2-for-4 with a stolen base (his 17th of the season).

*No Bubba Starling for the second game in a row.

Apr 12, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) drives in a run with a single in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

I start with an observation and a statistic. The Royals see very few pitches; that’s the observation. Here is the statistic. They see 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, which is next to last in the American League; the Angels are last at 3.74.* Of course, conventional wisdom states that the more pitches a team sees the better. It means the other team has to burn through pitchers more quickly, allowing the patient team to face the opposing team’s bullpen more often. Typically, bullpen pitchers aren’t as good as starting pitchers, which is why they are in the bullpen. Seeing more pitches also allows hitters to understand a pitcher’s stuff better, thus, giving those hitters a better chance at the plate. The top five teams in P/PA are Boston, Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Toronto. Four of those teams rank above league average in runs scored per game with Cleveland, Oakland, and Boston scoring 5.09, 4.79, and 4.76 R/G respectively.

*All stats in this post come from before the first game of the Angels series.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, it’s fairly easy to see why the Royals see so few pitches: 1) The Royals swing at 47.7 percent of pitches, second only to the Angels; 2) They make contact with 81.2 percent of pitches they swing at, which is fourth in the AL; 3) They swing at 32.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone and make contact with those pitches 72.2 percent of the time. That’s tops in the league. From this data we get a picture that our eyes probably already began constructing as we watched the games. The Royals swing at a lot of pitches, but they don’t strike out that much. Instead, they put a lot of balls in play. This might be ok if it were true that all balls in play are created equal, but as has been one of my battles for at least two years against the notion that BABIP is a matter of “luck,” all batted balls are not created equally. This data hints at that. The Royals make contact with a lot of balls outside the strike zone. Some of those are fouled off. Some of those drop as hits, but a large majority of those are put in play weakly for outs. To state it simply, the Royals put too many balls in play. They put balls in play that should be left alone.

This doesn’t just include balls out of the strike zone. It also includes pitcher’s pitches, balls placed on the corners and low. These are tough pitches that make hitting safely difficult. If a hitter swings at a pitcher’s pitch, he is most likely going to miss it or put it in play weakly. We already know the Royals actually don’t swing and miss much, only 8.7 percent, which is ninth in the American League (Jeff Francoeur be damned). Instead, they put the ball in play weakly a lot.

It’s an interesting and incredibly frustrating combination. The Royals swing at pitches they shouldn’t, but instead of striking out at an Astros-like rate, they simply hit weak ground balls to the second baseman. Of course, it seems like striking out is worse, but maybe we shouldn’t take that for granted. If Francoeur swings at a pitch outside the strike zone on the first pitch and hits a weak ground ball to second, that’s one pitch and one out. If he swings and misses at three bad pitches, that’s three pitches and one out. Sure, his ball in play gave him the slight chance to get on base (error, infield single, bloop hit, weak ground ball through the infield). But it also cost him two pitches. It’s not a coincidence that starting pitchers go deep against the Royals. The only way they have of running up pitch counts is to get a lot of hits because they don’t see enough pitches otherwise.

So, if I had to boil their philosophy down into a few words it would go like this: When you see a pitch you think you can hit, hit it. Simplified, but it seems like this is how they approach hitting. This is, in fact, a bad philosophy. It discounts all the benefits that come from seeing more pitches for the belief that one may get the best pitch to hit early in the count. It’s actually predicated on fear, a fear of missing out on the pitch early in the count that would have been the best one to hit. This scenario plays out all the time in real life when people decide to settle for something they can hit instead of waiting, gathering more information, and hitting the pitch they should hit. Why is this bad? Because more information is almost always better than less information i.e. seeing what a pitcher is throwing and understanding it is better than not. Plus, pitchers live to exploit hitters willing to swing at quality strikes. Swinging early and often places them right in their comfort zones and misunderstands the game of hitter versus pitcher.

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) at bat in the ninth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the hitter versus pitcher battle, it begins with the hitter at a slight disadvantage because it takes four balls to walk and just three strikes for an out, which is why I never understood why people call 2-2 an even count. That’s not even; that’s advantage pitcher, same with 1-1, but I digress. At 0-0, the pitcher has virtually no pressure to pitch to any one area of the strike zone or using any particular pitch. The information slate is nearly blank for that particular plate appearance. At 0-1, there is greater leeway to throw fringe pitches, thus, greater incentive to stay out of the middle of the plate. At 0-2 this is doubly true, which is why hitters who get in 0-2 counts produce negative results much more often. The pitcher expands the strike zone and so do hitters to protect. But in some ways, being 0-2 creates an advantage for the hitter because the hitter now has information about what influences exist on the pitcher. They now know that the pitcher is probably going to consciously stay away from the middle and is much more likely to throw a certain pitch (out pitch).

This is all conversely true as well. In 1-0, the hitter is aware that more pressure exists in that moment to throw a strike. And so on and so on. All the while, the hitter is reformulating his approach or at least, he should be. In 2-0, he should be thinking one pitch in one spot. If he doesn’t get that pitch in that spot, he shouldn’t swing. In 2-1, he can recalculate. As the count turns in the pitcher’s favor, he will expand to cover the plate but he will also understand the potential pitch selection better.

Without seeing more pitches, none of this happens. Or rather, less of this happens. It keeps the Royals from getting into counts like 2-0, 3-1, 2-1, counts that help the conscientious hitter more than the pitcher. I say it helps the conscientious hitter because it really does very little for the Francoeurs of the world who really only understand the notion of swinging at all cost.

The Royals BABIP right now is .302, which is fifth in the AL—not bad. Of course, they never walk so they need their BABIP to be in the .315 range to score a significant amount of runs. Do you see the perfect storm of why they aren’t producing offensively? Swinging at non-premium pitches. Putting balls in play weakly. Pitchers going very deep into games. It starts with their approach at the plate. Yes, they aren’t hitting for power, but that’s in large part because they are swinging at non-premium pitches and putting them in play early in counts. Yes, they aren’t walking, but that’s because they have a philosophy that doesn’t stress patience at the plate (By the way, the top five teams in walk percentage are all above league average in runs per game including the Tigers who are tops in runs per game at 5.37. They are also tops in BABIP, which means they’re walking and then hitting those runners in).

There might be some who want to blame the hitting coach(es) for this. It’s really not their fault(s). This is an organizational problem, and Kevin Seitzer was just as disinterested in seeing pitches. The organization as a whole does not stress the importance of seeing pitches and consequently does not emphasize it enough in the minors nor consider it enough when constructing a roster.

And because it’s organizational, it’s a problem not easily solved.

That’s the record James Shields had after his first 8 games started in 2012.

We talk all the time on here about how overvalued the “W’ is as a statistic, but unfortunately, the world we live in still hasn’t seemed to consider the ridiculous ways an individual gains a “win” or a “loss.” Michael talked last week about the way Shields’ record seemed “Grienkesque” in the way he’s compiled a 2-3 record despite an ERA of 2.48 with 53 strikeouts and 14 walks

Guess what Shields’ record was after his first 8 games in 2011?

3-1 (ERA – 2.08) 51 SO and 13 walks

There are some conflicting statistics here. Shields’ 2011 and 2013 stats are very similar and yet the discrepancy in record is pretty glaring. 7-1 to 3-5.

However, in the first 8 games of 2012, James had an E.R.A that was actually more than an entire run higher than his current progress. The difference? In 2011 and 2013, Shields was getting an average of 4.125 runs per game from his offense. In 2011, it just worked out that he was on the right side of the fence. In 2012, Shields, though still good, wasn’t anywhere near his current progress. However, his offense was averaging 5.125 runs a game.

All of this to say, I’m kind of bummed out that James has been getting slapped with so many losses. Not because I think anything of the “win,” but because I hear too many people talking about “wins” and “losses” as if they are the one thing that defines a pitcher’s success.

It gives me a headache.

So to all of you people, Shields has had a great start to the year. Don’t be morons. If a pitcher is good, it makes sense that he would probably have more wins than losses when the season ends. If he pitches well and his team provides him any sort of offense, he’s likely to do all right in that department.

However, if his team is struggling offensively (as the Royals have been this season, though it looks like they brought their bats to the game against the Angels last night) then it’s not too unbelievable to see James hang a 3-5 record through the first 8 games of the season.

Just stop acting like his record is important and have faith that the bats will start to pick up and help steer the course of his record back onto the straight and narrow.

May 13, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) slides beneath the tag of Los Angeles Angels catcher Chris Iannetta (17) to score in the fifth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There have been questions all year about the Royals offense. Where is Eric Hosmer‘s power? What does Mike Moustakas have to fix? And recently – surprisingly – what’s wrong with Billy Butler?

On Monday night, at least, the Butler question was answered. Apparently there’s nothing wrong with Butler.

Before Monday’s game, Ned Yost had told Bob Dutton that he had no worries about Butler, the most consistent bat in the Royals lineup over the past few years.

I come to the park each day expecting Billy to get four hits. He might do it tonight. – Ned Yost on Butler’s struggles

Well Yost was wrong. Butler had five hits (and five RBI) as the Royals pounded out 19 hits en route to an 11-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels. The Royals scored in six different innings and six batters had more than one hit. The team had five doubles overall and 14 singles. More astonishing, they scored 11 runs without the benefit of a walk or a home run and struck out 13 times.

Early, Joe Blanton was using his changeup well to get strikeouts, but nothing else was working for him and he was just as hittable as he’s been all year. That allowed the Royals to get out ahead early and keep piling on. Moustakas and Chris Getz were the only starters to go hitless.

After a 1-6 stretch of games in which the Royals had scored just 23 runs the old anxiety that comes with being a Royals fan was rekindled. Thoughts of collapse were bouncing around the internet, so a big win like this one can hold off some of those fears. Still, it’d be nice to see the Royals have some more consistent home run power and some walks so that they wouldn’t have to bunch together multiple hits to score runs. The lineup put 33 balls in play. Of those, 19 fell for hits for a BABIP of .576. I don’t have to tell you that that isn’t sustainable.

Luis Mendoza threw six innings, shaking off some rough starts, and got six strikeouts with no walks in the process. Luke Hochevar worked the final three innings for his first career save and he looked great doing it for the most part.

A special treat for some tonight was the different tone presented by the Royals official Twitter account, as they handed the controls over to Danny Duffy.

By now, you know that Duffy is an enthusiastic guy, so while he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, why not let him take the time to talk with fans?

Some highlights:

After a Billy Butler double in the first.

LETS RIDE. BILLY BUTLER. FASTEST MAN ALIVE. -@dannyduffy805

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

Duffy tweets to himself.

@royals whats up me?

— Danny Duffy (@DannyDuffy805) May 14, 2013

After a blast of a double by Salvador Perez, Duffy showed his appreciation.

Salvy! Get em NIÑO!! Love you man! Follow my man @salvadorperez15. -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

And he had to show some more love for Billy Butler on his big night.

If Billy hits for the cycle i am going to church tonight. -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

#BillyButlerForManOfTheYear2013 -@dannyduffy805 #duffytakeover

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 14, 2013

@billybutlerkc i love you.

— Danny Duffy (@DannyDuffy805) May 14, 2013

Don’t we all, Danny. Don’t we all.

Lett’s start with Omaha, who lost in walk off fashion to Colorado Springs, 7-6. The Storm Chasers led 6-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth when the Sky Sox plated four runs. With the bases loaded and one out, Adam Moore dropped the throw at the plate, allowing the winning run to score.

Every Storm Chaser batter had at least one hit, as they collected 15 of them. The middle of their order (Johnny Giavotella, Xavier Nady, and Max Ramirez) went 7-for-14. Ramirez was just named the Pacific Coast League’s Player of the Week.

Francisley Bueno made a solid spot start with four innings of one-run baseball.

With the score tied at 3-3 in the bottom of the ninth, Arkansas walked off on NW Arkansas, 4-3 on a two out solo homerun.

Rey Navarro had given the Naturals a short-lived 3-2 lead in the top of the 8th inning on a solo homerun (he went 2-for-4 with two runs scored). The Travelers came right back to tie the game in the bottom of the inning.

Brooks Pounders was solid in the no decision. He allowed two runs on six hits over five innings. He struck out four.

*Yordano Ventura was named the Texas League’s Player of the Week.

Wilmington lost their series finale in Frederick by a 7-3 final. The Blue Rocks scored all of their runs over the final two innings. Now they head to Potomac for three games.

Sam Selman lost his third game of the season, as once again his command failed him. He allowed five runs (four earned) on five walks and four hits. He did strike out five, but over just 4.2 innings.

Alex Hudak drove in two runs in the 8th inning with a homerun.

June 21, 2011; Omaha, NE, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks third baseman Adrian Morales (3) hits a RBI single during the first inning against the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2011 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Lexington was the only affiliate to win on Monday night and they won in walk off fashion. With one out in the bottom of the 11th inning, Adrian Morales hit his first homerun of the season to give the Legends the 2-1 win. It was just his second hit of the season.

Just hours after being named the South Atlantic League’s Pitcher of the Week, Bryan Brickhouse delivered yet another solid start. He allowed one run on seven hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out four and recorded the rest of his outs on the ground. The Legends bullpen was stellar behind him. Cory Hall, Mark Peterson, and winning pitcher Ali Williams combined to throw six scoreless innings. Only three hitters reached base against them.

Michael Antonio drove in the Legends first run in the bottom of the fourth with a double (one of his two hits on the night).

This will be the only visit the Royals make to Angels Stadium against Los Angeles and Mike Trout. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Series Preview –

KC comes to the big A having lost six of their last seven games, after getting to 17-10 on the season. The Angels are coming off a series win on the Southside of Chicago but are 3-3 in their last six games.

Probable Pitching Matchups –

Monday, May 13 (9:05 pm): Luis Mendoza (0-2, 6.38) v. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66)
- Mendoza is making just his fifth start of the season tonight in Anaheim
- This is the Dozers first start against LA as a Royal but his career record against the Halos is 0-1 in three starts
Tuesday, May 14 (9:05 pm): Jeremy Guthrie (5-0, 2.28) v. Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.11)
- Guthrie looks to continue his club-record 18 game unbeaten streak
- His 2.28 ERA is seventh as of Monday in the American League
Wednesday, May 15 (9:05 pm): Wade Davis (2-3, 5.86) v. TBA
- Davis suffered a 11-6 defeat Friday night against the Yankees going just five innings
- After starting 2-0 he’s lost three of his last four starts with a no-decision mixed in

2012 Results –

In 2012 the Royals were 4-5 against the Angeles but were 3-3 in Anaheim which included taking the opening series. Los Angeles outscored Kansas City by the narrow margin of 44-39 last season in the nine games played.

TV/Radio –

All three games are on Fox Sports Kansas City with Ryan Lefebvre and Rex Hudler on the call with Joel Goldberg hosting the pre and post game. On 610 Sports Radio will be Steve Physioc and Steve Stewart.

2013 Schedule v. Angels –

May 13-15, Angels Stadium
May 23-26, Kauffman Stadium

First off, here are heat maps from baseballheatmaps.com of what Billy has been swinging at.  On top is April, and you can see he had a much smaller area of attack versus right handed pitchers.  He was only swinging heavily at pitches in the middle of the strike zone.  This expanded versus southpaws, but remained mostly strikes.  The last two weeks this has changed.  Against left handed pitchers he is swinging the most at pitches that are middle-away and avoiding the inside half of the plate.  Less power since he is not pulling inside pitches, which sounds a lot like Eric Hosmer right now as well.  On right handed pitchers he is swinging at inside and up in the zone, but nothing else.  Both heavy swing areas are smaller the last two weeks.  If you look at Billy’s Fangraphs page this shows up as well.

Butler is swinging at under 40% of pitches he sees for the first time in his career.  His rate is 38.8%, which is almost 4% lower than last year.  He is still swinging at a similar number of strikes, but his rate of swinging outside the zone is down.  This is consistent with him being pitched around some.  The pitch mix he is seeing from opposing pitchers looks about the same as last year.  Nothing in any of his rate stats jumps out as a red flag.

Then comes our old friend BABIP.  Billy’s balls in play average is .247, which is way below his career BABIP of .324, and I would love to point to this and say that he has been unlucky and all is well with the world.  The problem is that I don’t believe it is all luck driven.  I won’t say every team, though it seems that way, is shifting on Billy, but more often than not I have seen the short stop playing much closer to second base this year when Butler is up.  This has been noticeable on several occasions when he hits something hard up the middle and my brain says single only to be let down when the defender barely has to move to make the play.

Overall I’m not sure that anything looks “wrong” with Billy.  He has seen fewer strikes, but it hasn’t seemed to make him expand the strike zone, possibly the opposite in fact.  I would like to see him turn on the ball a little more, and he may need to just to try and move the defense to a more straight-up alignment.  Still, it mostly looks like Billy is still himself and just needs to adjust a bit to the shift.

It was a tough week to swallow. The boys in blue went 1-6, with four of those losses being by two runs or less. For their sloppy play as much as their terrible record over this week, I’m giving them a D for this week. If they continue playing like this, which I don’t think they will, some of the Royals faithful might need to be placed on psyche watch. Including me. I will lead us to the padded cells.

To the themes:

I have the power (if you grew up when I did you should get this reference)

Early in the week, the Royals showed why Kauffman Stadium really isn’t a homerun park by smashing the ball out of Camden Yards. They hit six homeruns in the Baltimore series, which even though they lost the Baltimore series, had some fans breathing a little easier. It showed that maybe the Royals aren’t completely incapable of hitting homeruns. It’s really hard for a team to win if it can’t hit the ball out of the yard. Conversely, it gets easier to win if you hit balls out of the yard, as the Yankees proved during their sweep of the Royals. I’m not sure this power surge is sustainable; I’ve never really seen the Royals as a homerun hitting team, but the guys they count on for power (Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon) have to find a way to hit the ball over the fence now and again or the Royals are once again going to be a team whose high batting average doesn’t correlate to high run totals (there are other factors as well though).

May 6, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) cannot make the catch in right field in the sixth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Lineups and linedowns

Does anyone on Earth know what Ned Yost is doing right now?  This week saw the move that many of us, including me, hoped for: Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz riding pine …  sort of. A day after Jarrod Dyson and Elliot Johnson took their places, they were right back in, indicating that it might be a platoon situation that would have Francoeur hit against lefties. But Yost told the keyboard cowboy Bob Dutton that this is not a platoon situation (see Dutton’s twitter feed for confirmation). Then what the hell is it? On Sunday, Yost decided to really screw with anyone who wants logic from the world by starting Dyson in center and Francoeur in right against a righty. Huh? Where am I right now? Is this … what the … what!?

The Getz situation seems to have a temporary fix but isn’t really resolved. Johnson started every game of the New York series, which really starts begging the question, what role is Getz filling at this point? I don’t know anyone who thinks Johnson is the answer at second base so it’s probably just a matter of time before the Royals do something to change that situation (hopefully call up Johnny Giavotella and send down Getz).

As for the Francoeur-Dyson situation, anyone’s guess is as good as mine at this point because something other than logic seems to be driving Yost’s decision making. Or I should say a logic that I cannot decipher is driving Yost’s decision making. It makes sense to righty-lefty platoon the two; I wouldn’t do it that way, but it makes sense. It makes sense to simply sit one of the two and play the other. It does not make sense to randomly play one and sit the other based on a seemingly arbitrary set of factors or perhaps no factors at all.

It’s one of those situations that makes me wonder if I’m losing my mind and slipping into an alternative reality.

The best defense is a good defense

I’m one of those people who went into this season believing in the defensive capability of the Royals. They have great range, I thought. They’ll get to balls no other team can, I thought. This will be one of the edges they have over Detroit, I thought. It turns out it doesn’t matter how much range you have if you can’t catch or throw the ball. The Royals made nine errors this week. That’s right—nine errors THIS WEEK. The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have nine errors all season (8). The Royals have 27, fifth most in the Major Leagues, and they haven’t played as many games as anyone above them on that list.

I do love the range, and I do love the playmaking potential. But damn! Nine errors in one week? There are many little league teams looking at that and saying Put a tent on that circus.

In times like these, I’m reminded how very simple this game is at times: You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.

Oh Billy-Billy-Billy

Butler has one job. He only has one job because he only does one thing well: hit. Ok technically, he’s a two-tool player. He can hit for average and he can hit for power, but it’s all a part of the only thing he can do … hit. Luckily for him, hitting for average and power happen to be two very valuable and fairly rare tools. Those tools will keep him in country breakfasts for the rest of his life.

But right now, he’s looking less like Country Breakfast and more like a breakfast Hot Pocket in that he’s terrible and making me want to vomit. I love Butler. I really do. He seems like a swell guy, and he’s a great hitter. But he’s hitting .228/.350/.377. For a designated hitter, that’s pretty bad, though the on-base does cushion the blow a bit. For a designated hitter who is supposed to be the team’s offensive force, the team’s best hitter and run producer, it’s very bad. Right now, he’s strugglin (read it with a country accent for emphasis).

It’s actually not surprising at all that the Royals aren’t winning right now with Butler adding virtually no value. Over the last week, he has been an empty spot in the lineup. Normally, Butler is one of the most comfortable looking players at the plate. There are times when it looks like he was born and raised in the batters box, but right now, he’s guessing, flailing, getting frustrated and confused. It’s hard to watch for those of us used to his mastery at the plate. Yes, I think he’ll turn it around, but perhaps that’s because I know that he has to for this team to win.

That’s all I got. Time to drown my sorrows in a Milky Way cake while crying uncontrollably and listening to Tears for Fears.

The bottom of their order, Adam Moore, Willy Taveras, and Paulo Orlando went a combined 8-for-12 with seven runs scored and four RBIs. Taveras and Orlando each stole a base. Moore followed Chad Tracy‘s two-run home run in the ninth with his own solo shot.

Ryan Verdugo was the recipient of all the run support. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks over 7.1 innings.

*In roster news, reliever Dan Wheeler was released on Saturday to make room for fellow reliever Brian Sanches who was on the inactive list. It is a shame because Wheeler pitched well during spring training and may have made the team if he was on the 40-man roster.

NW Arkansas lost their finale in Springfield on Sunday by a 7-4 score. That was despite out-hitting the Cardinals, 11-8. The Naturals now head to play Arkansas for four games beginning Monday.

Angel Franco, Roman Hernandez, and Alex McClure each picked up two hits. Hernandez hit a two-run home run in the 4th inning with two outs.

Noel Arguelles lasted just two batters into the 3rd inning, as he walked eight. Meanwhile, the Naturals bullpen allowed just one run on four hits and three walks the rest of the game.

*In roster news, utility man Whit Merrifield was placed on the DL and reliever Buddy Baumann was added to the roster, He made his debut and pitched three scoreless innings of relief while striking out four.

Wilmington jumped out to a 5-0 lead after the second inning and never looked back, en route to their 8-2 win in Frederick. The Blue Rocks collected 15 hits. The two teams finish up their series on Monday.

Six of the Blue Rocks hitters had multi-hit games. The top three in the order, Justin Trapp, Daniel Mateo, and Jorge Bonifacio went 6-for-14 with four runs scored and three RBIs. Cheslor Cuthbert hit three doubles and drove in two runs.

All of that offensive output made a winner of Kyle Smith. He allowed one run on five hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out four.

*In roster news, outfielder Chris Elder was activated from the DL.

Lexington lost their series finale to West Virginia, 6-2. Two of the Legends six hits came in the bottom of the ninth. They now welcome Kannapolis to town Monday night.

Terrence Gore and Ethan Chapman each collected two hits. Unfortunately as a team, the Legends struck out 14 times (though Bubba Starling did not).

Clayton Schulz and Daniel Hernandez each threw a scoreless inning of relief.

As you may have heard, Northwest Arkansas Naturals General Manager Eric Edelstein has taken a job that will land him in Reno, and he’ll be leaving the Royals organization. But before he left, Troy Olsen caught up with him to talk about the move and to learn a bit more about some Double A prospects.

Then we talked about the latest Royals action, including the kneejerk reactions from social media. We tried to make sense of the noise, take a deep breath, and reflect on the long slog of the baseball season.

We wrapped up by picking a player from each full season minor league level to focus on. We discussed David Lough, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Smith, and Miguel Almonte this week, some of the top performers in the Royals system so far.

The Kansas City Baseball Vault is a weekly podcast that covers the Royals, their minor league affiliates and other aspects of baseball in Kansas City.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

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After starter Chris Dwyer allowed four runs over 5.1 innings (but left with the win), the Omaha bullpen duo of Blaine Boyer and Donnie Joseph allowed six runs over the game’s final two innings.

The Storm Chasers out-hit the Sky Sox 14-9 (five of those hits were doubles), as five starters collected multi-hit games. Max Ramirez and Anthony Seratelli each picked up three hits.

NW Arkansas played Springfield into the morning, as the Naturals won 5-4.

Both teams used two position players to pitch each. Mitch Canham, who was 2-for-7 at the plate, pitched three scoreless innings (the 15th-17th). Canham then moved to first base, as Matt Fields came on to pitch. He loaded the bases with nobody out in the 18th, but escaped the jam. He then walked to lead off the 20th inning and came around to score on Juan Graterol‘s first homerun of the season. Fields earned the win and also went 2-for-5 at the plate (including a two-run homerun).

It got a little dicey in the bottom of the 20th, as Fields allowed three straight singles to score a run with one out. After a fly out moved the tying run to third base, he induced a ground out to FINALLY end the game. The two teams will be back on the field for the finale this afternoon.

There wasn’t a ton of offense to talk about, as most of the hitters saw their averages drop. The two teams combined for 41 strikeouts and 32 men left on base.

Former Royal Ruben Gotay took the loss, despite being the reason the game went into extra innings. He hit a three-run homerun in the 8th inning (the only runs the Cardinals scored until the 20th). Outside of those two innings, the Naturals pitching staff combined for 18 scoreless innings.

Wilmington‘s five-run 6th inning gave them a 6-4 win over host Frederick in Game 1 of their doubleheader. In that inning, the Blue Rocks had four hits, a walk, and a sac fly, while being helped out by a Frederick error.

Kyle Zimmer started, but did not earn the win because he was pulled after four innings (he threw 78 pitches). He allowed five hits and two walks while striking out three. Cody Fassold picked up the win with two perfect innings of relief.

On offense in the win, Justin Trapp and Parker Morin picked up two hits.

The Blue Rocks exploded in the late innings to beat the Keys, 18-5 in the second game. They were down 5-0 heading into the fourth and capped the game with an eight-spot in the seventh. In that eight run outburst, Wilmington sent 12 men to the plate.

Every hitter had a multi-hit game except for two. Kenny Diekroeger and Alex Hudak each picked up two hits, including two out home runs. Jack Lopez fell a double short of the cycle and drove in seven runs. Jorge Bonifacio went 4-for-4 with three runs scored and two RBIs.

Malcom Culver earned his first win with three scoreless innings of relief of John Lamb, who only lasted four innings (5H, 5R, 2BB, K, 2HR).

The two games totaled 5 hours and 28 minutes and the start was delayed 33 minutes due to wet field conditions from an afternoon thunderstorm. Frederick had to cancel their fireworks show because the game did not end until 12:01am ET (one hour after their curfew).

*In roster news, first baseman Murray Watts was released and the Blue Rocks received Jared Schlehuber from extended spring training. Schlehuber went 2-for-5 with four RBIs in the second game.

Lexington won Game 1 over West Virginia, 2-0. Colin Rodgers picked up the win with six shutout innings. He allowed six hits and a walk while striking out six. Mark Peterson earned his fifth save of the season.

Raul Mondesi and Jin-Ho Shin each picked up two hits in the win and both drove in a run (in the fifth and sixth innings).

The Legends lost the second game, 4-3. Josh Bell hit a two-run home run to give the Power the lead in the top of the seventh.

On offense in the loss, Terrence Gore went 3-for-4 with two runs scored from the leadoff spot (they only had six hits).

Starter Daniel Stumpf pitched well, but only lasted four innings (4H, R, BB, 6K). Alec Mills took the loss, as he allowed the two run home run, along with an inherited runner in the sixth.

So far, James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana have anchored the team, with none of the top three starters having any meltdown starts. Guthrie has been undefeated in every start (and has a team-record streak of starts without a loss). Santana has looked like a completely different pitcher from last year and Shields is as advertised.

April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Ervin Santana (54) delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen, despite perception, has performed just as well in 2013 than they did in 2012. The times they’ve blown saves, though, have been traumatic enough to make it seem like everyone’s struggling. As a group, relievers have a 3.16 ERA. Last year’s bullpen had a 3.17 ERA. This year’s group has a 3.41 K/BB ratio compared to last year’s 2.36.

Now, the question is how long they can keep it up. Guthrie was the typical innings eater with the Orioles, got rocked as a Rockie and has been brilliant as a Royal. He’s also striking out a higher percentage of batters while walking a lower percentage. He’s stranded an incredible 93% of baserunners – a number that just can’t be sustained.

Santana’s also out-performing his career norms. His ground ball rate, HR/FB rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and strand rate are all better than his what he’s done to this point. It’s not as drastic as a 93% strand rate, but at 84% it’s still pretty high.

The big three starters’ ERAs are outpacing their FIPs and xFIPs, and all three measurements are better than their career to this point.

That’s not to discredit what they’ve done to this point. Pitchers can go on great runs and Santana has a couple of very good years on his resume. Shields has been a legit Cy Young candidate in the past and, while not a true Ace in the mold of Justin Verlander, he’s not too far at all from that group. The trio having success shouldn’t be surprising. Having this much success is a surprise, though.

On the other hand, the other two parts of the rotation haven’t had much success. I’m somewhat willing to give Luis Mendoza a break since he’s been skipped due to weather, schedules, manhunts, but he has to be better than he has been. He had a stretch of good starts last year, but this year he’s walking batters more often and not striking out enough to compensate for it. Nearly half of the runners he’s let on base have scored, and he’s not getting grounders as frequently.

Similarly, Wade Davis is struggling to reach his career marks. He’s had some good starts but when he’s been bad, he’s been disastrous.

I’ve thrown all of the Royals pitchers’ 2013 stats (through 32 games) into a table and compared them to their career rates. Things I’d look at when guessing at statistical regression (and remember, regression just means going towards the normal rate, which isn’t necessarily worse – Kelvin Herrera’s home run per fly ball rate is an obvious regression situation) are how many runners are left on base (average LOB% are usually around 70%) and how many homers are surrendered per fly ball allowed (usually around 10%). As those numbers turn towards the norm, ERAs should go up as well – but the favorable walk rates and strikeout rates can prevent large swings. Shields and Guthrie, already owning good walk rates, have been a bit worse than their career rates. (Bold numbers show where a pitcher is outperforming his career stat in that area; italics indicate where they’re performing worse statistically. All stats picked up from FanGraphs.)

At some point, Guthrie will lose a start. Shields will get hit. Santana will have a bad day. Davis will throw a gem and Mendoza will show why he won the fifth starter job in the first place. Herrera will hit a stretch of fly balls that don’t leave the yard (for example: four fly balls that stay in will change his HR/FB% to 15% from his gawdy 37.5%). Luke Hochevar and Aaron Crow won’t strand every runner they allow to reach.

But these guys are better than last year and they’re showing it, even if the stats in the end might not be quite as great as they are now. If the offense picks up at the same time as some of those statistical regressions, the net change may not even be that noticeable and the Royals may not have to rely as much on high strand rates.

The Storm Chasers scored four runs in the 6th inning, capped by Anthony Seratelli’s two out, two-run homerun (he went 2-for-4). Max Ramirez would add another two-run shot in the eighth (he went 2-for-4).

That made a winner of Will Smith, who allowed just one run on six hits and a walk over six innings. Louis Coleman followed with two perfect innings of relief

Xavier Nady collected three hits in the win and Adam Moore and Christian Colon each picked up two hits.

NW Arkansas and Springfield played two. The Cardinals won the first game, 6-4. Sugar Ray Marimon took the loss, as he allowed all six runs on nine hits over just four innings. The Cardinals also hit two homeruns off him.

Speaking of homers, Matt Fields hit his seventh, a two-run shot with two outs in the 4th inning.

The Naturals won the second game by a 5-4 final. They scored all five runs in the third, capped by a Fields’ two out, three-run homerun.

Matt Ridings picked up the win in relief of starter Andy Ferguson, who lasted just one inning. Ridings allowed four hits over three scoreless innings and struck out three.

Wilmington was rained out in their series opener in Frederick. The two teams will play a doubleheader on Saturday.

Lexington and West Virginia were also rained out and will also play a doubleheader on Saturday.

So far, so good.

May 9, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by third base coach Eddie Rodriguez (14) after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Royals defeated the Orioles 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Thankfully, the Royals finally got a homer from Eric Hosmer, who has been disappointing from a power standpoint. He’s gotten on base, and his batting average is much better than at any point last year, but he’s showing little slugging potential so far. Nearly everything he hits is to the left side and he seems either unable or unwilling to pull the ball. His homer, while impressive, was to the opposite field(not necessarily a bad thing, but given the context, it’s not helping the narrative).

At this stage, it’s not just a bizarre stretch, it’s a tendency. Hosmer has been criticized in the past for trying to pull too much, and, like Alex Gordon in his early years, would swing over the ball, top it over to second, and ground out.

Mike Moustakas, though, has shown signs of waking up from his early season slump. The Royals said they’d found a problem in his swing and since the adjustment, he’s hit three homers and looked much better at the plate.

Other notes:

-The Royals traded third baseman Brandon Wood to the Baltimore Orioles for cash considerations. Wood had a .264/.304/.396 line in 54 plate appearances for Omaha. Wood was basically a lottery ticket, but it’s possible the Royals might try Johnny Giavotella at third base more now. He’s seen some work at the spot this season, according to Lee Warren.

-Sam Mellinger produced a fine column about the virtue of patience with prospects, citing Alex Gordon as an example. I like the idea, though, let’s face it, we don’t want to wait a couple more years for Hosmer and Moustakas to figure it out before they become stars. For what it’s worth, Gordon homered in all three games in Baltimore and now leads the team in homers with six.

-I do, however, take umbrage with Jeffrey Flanagan’s column on Fox Sports Kansas City’s website. He discussed reactions to James Shields‘s start as a Royal. His thesis is that the world was split into two camps: those who were entirely anti-Shields after the trade, and well, everyone else.

Flanagan cites Shields’s solid start in 2013 and suggests that everyone who railed against the trade in December is now flipping over to praise it. I think that eliminates all subtlety to the issue. Flanagan dismisses Wil Myers as a top prospect – not on the Royals but in all of baseball – and suggests more struggles than were truly present (Myers had a rough 2011 due to a fluke injury and resultant infection in his knee but finished strong and was the 2012 Prospect of the Year. If that’s struggling, sign me up.)

But the main problem I have is that he completely ignores that, while fans, bloggers, and analysts can like James Shields as a pitcher, liking Shields doesn’t have to also be an acceptance of the way he was acquired. In three years, if the Royals are looking to fill a hole in right field and James Shields is a free agent signee elsewhere, the Royals had better have made the playoffs at least once – if not twice – to truly justify the trade.

Bottom line, Flanagan implies that every fan that didn’t like the trade also didn’t like James Shields, which just isn’t the case. You can like James Shields and not like the way the Royals had to go about acquiring him. Here’s what I wrote shortly after the deal last December:

I still think the Royals paid full retail and left a tip in their acquisition of Shields. I like the return. I don’t like the price. But Shields is good – and I’ve always been a fan – and he instantly changes the Royals rotation from a bunch of schlubs last year to a true rotation that can make some noise.

-Jim Callis of Baseball America has put out his first mock draft in preparation of the 2013 draft next month. His projection for the Royals? Right-handed pitcher Ryne Stanek from Arkansas, a Kansas City product who was on the Royals radar out of high school a couple of years ago.

The longest losing streak so far in 2013 belongs to the team that spent the most money in the off-season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have wracked up 7 losses in a row, and have a chance to extend that number tonight.  Miami is a good opportunity for a win, but I believe in you LA.  They have not yet won a game this month.  They also have a 6 game losing streak.

All but two major league teams have lost at least three in a row, so the Royals are in good company.  Only the New York Yankees, who everyone was writing off before the season, and the Texas Rangers have not lost 3 in a row yet.  Maybe the Royals can hand the Yanks three in a row over the weekend since they are due.  There are six teams tied with the Royals with a longest streak of 3 (Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Seattle, and St. Louis), so the Royals have managed to out perform 22 of the 30 teams so far in avoiding losing streaks.  Of the 3 in a row max club, the Royals, Orioles, and Cardinals have only one streak of three, while the Red Sox, Rockies, and Mariners have 2 streaks each.

The leaders for most streaks of 3 losses or more are, unsurprisingly, Miami with 6 such streaks and Houston with 5.

This may seem frivolous, but as I am sure most of you are aware, the Royals kind of have a habit of sustained losing streaks.  Avoiding them feels really good.  Last year the Royals had the brutal 12 game April losing streak and 10 streaks of 3 or more losses in total.  That is one and a third losing streaks per month.  We are over a month in with only one such streak so far, and it is of the shortest variety due to last night’s victory.

Public enemy number one Robinson Cano returns to the K this weekend. Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Kings of Kauffman – Robinson Cano will be booed every time he’s at bat or announced this weekend, how do you think this will play with Yankee fans watching on TV?

Yankees Go Yard – The Cano thing to me was very overblown. There should just be a rule that the host stadium automatically has a competitor in the home run derby. Yankees get booed all the time so it won’t bother him or fans watching.

KOK – Many, myself included thought New York would take a step back but to their credit they are playing decent, what are the reasons for this?

YGY – The credit goes to the pitching staff. After early struggles, they’ve really calmed down. GM Brian Cashman has brought in some nice veteran stop gaps like Lyle Overbay to help out. Vernon Wells has been better than anyone could have expected.

KOK – How does the starting pitching line-up for the weekend?

YGY – he Royals will see Phil Hughes friday who has pitched quite a bit better than early on. If he can throw strikes, and keep his pitch count down, it could be a long night for KC. Andy Pettitte goes saturday night and he’s really struggled of late. If he’s elevating the ball, KC is in good shape. Hiroki Kuroda goes sunday and he’s been the Yankees most consistant starter this year.

KOK – This will be the Yankees lone trip to the K so our last chance to see Mariano Rivera how has Mo been (nearly a year to the day to his injury at Kauffman Stadium)

YGY – Mariano RIvera has been as good as he ever has. He could probably pitch another two years after this if he wanted.

Pitching Match-ups and game times –

Friday: Phil Hughes (1-2, 3.60) v. Wade Davis (2-2, 4.75), 7:10 pm
Saturday:  Andy Pettitte (3-2, 4.06) v. James Shields (1-2, 3.09), 6:10 pm
Sunday:  Hiroki Kuroda (4-2, 2.30) v. Ervin Santana (3-1, 2.00), 1:10 pm

The Storm Chasers took the second game, 13-1. Already leading 3-0, they exploded for nine runs in the 2nd inning.

Mar 18, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) swings at a pitch during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

In the first, two straight singles to lead off the game led to Johnny Giavotella‘s three-run homerun. In the second, the Storm Chasers sent 15 men to the plate. They walked four times and hit six singles. The big hit came from Paulo Orlando, who cleared the bases with a triple.

Omaha was held scoreless from there until Max Ramirez hit a solo homerun in the 6th inning (he went 3-for-4). David Lough, Christian Colon, and Brett Hayes each picked up two hits in the win.

Everett Teaford made the start and allowed four hits and a walk over 3.2 innings. He struck out three. Francisley Bueno picked up the win, as he allowed an unearned run on two hits over 3.1 innings of relief.

In roster news, third baseman Brandon Wood was traded to the Baltimore Orioles (and sent to Triple-A Norfolk). Orlando was activated from the DL.

Mother Nature must not want NW Arkansas and Springfield to play. Last week when Springfield visited NW Arkansas, two games were postponed. Tonight’s series opener in Springfield was rained out after they recorded ten outs. They will play a doubleheader on Friday.

In roster news, reliever Cole White was released and Santiago Garrido was activated from the DL.

After scoring two runs in the first inning, Wilmington lost to Potomac in ten innings, 3-2. Jorge Bonifacio drove in a run with a sac fly and Lane Adams drove in a run with a single.

Spencer Patton took the loss, as two straight wild pitches allowed the winning run to score (3IP, H, R, 0BB, 4K). Aaron Brooks had another solid start, as he allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Murray Watts went 2-for-4 with two doubles, but never scored a run.

With a 1-1 tie, Lexington scored a run in the bottom of the 7th inning to beat visiting West Virginia, 2-1. Michael Antonio broke the tie with a leadoff homerun, his first of the season (he went 2-for-2).

Christian Binford earned the win, as he allowed just the one run on six hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out six. Daniel Hernandez and Alec Mills threw a perfect inning of relief each.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

On April 23^rd, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star wrote an article in which Moustakas claimed to have been informed of a flaw in his swing mechanics by the coaches. They told him that he had been getting out on his front foot too much and not staying back in a position where he can see the ball better and have a better opportunity to drive it. I’m not a swing expert by any means, but it certainly seems like a plausible explanation for why he was hitting so many pitches in the air – both in the infield and to the outfield – over the first 3 weeks of the season. At that point, Moose had a line of .158/.226/.193, which is less than desirable for most pitchers, let alone a third baseman on an AL club with playoff aspirations.

Since the flaw was revealed to him, Moose has put up a slash line that is much more indicative of a player manning the hot corner: .308/.383/.538 with 2 HR and 3 doubles over 12 games and 47 plate appearances.

Not only has his overall production improved, but it seems like Moustakas is seeing the ball better and has a better approach. He sports career best walk and strikeout percentages, and he’s seeing more pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) since the change. Prior to April 23^rd, Moose was seeing 3.27 P/PA. Since that date, the number is 3.68. Granted, that’s still not quite what you want to see, since that would only put him 61^st out of 94 qualified batters in the American League. But while it may not seem like it, seeing .4 more P/PA is a significant improvement. For example, adding another .4 to the 3.68 from his recent stretch would put him in the top 20 in the AL, right around players like Joe Mauer and Dustin Pedroia. In his last 4 games, Moose has seen 4.36 P/PA. Obviously that number isn’t going to be sustainable for a player like Moustakas who has never been a guy who takes a ton of walks, but it does suggest that he has improved his pitch recognition and is finding what pitches he needs to drive, while either letting others by, or fouling them off to wait for a better pitch.

Moose also seems to be making better contact on pitches he likes. Over the past 12 games, he has a LD% of 20.6, GB% of 35.3, and FB% of 44.1. Prior to the reveal of his swing flaw, he had a LD% of 12.2, GB% of 24.5, and FB% of 63.3.

Those are staggering numbers. Like all small sample sizes, you have to take these with a grain of salt, but the fact that there has been such a dramatic shift in his batted ball percentages continues to give credence to the coaches’ theory. Moustakas is still hitting infield flyballs at a high rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down in the next couple of weeks as well, as Moose continues to heat up.

Overall, Moustakas’ line still isn’t all that pretty: .219/.294/.333, so he does have a lot of work to do. But there are signs that he may be turning it around, and with the way the rest of the offense has looked lately, the Royals are really going to need their third baseman to hit like a third baseman. Moose and his fellow corner infielder, Eric Hosmer, will need to step their offensive production up in order for the Royals’ offense to be strong enough to keep the team in contention later in the season. While the starting pitching has been great, the last few games have shown that scoring just 1, 2, or 3 runs isn’t an effective strategy for winning consistently in this league. If Moustakas can keep performing the way he has recently, that will go a long way in improving this squad’s playoff chances.

Cain and Gordon should start things off for this team. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Needless to say…something’s gotta give. This team has shown very little power and continually seems to either squeak by or come up just short. Lately the trend is to squander a good outing by one of the starting pitchers. I think we can all agree that James Shields should have better than a 2-2 record.

If you go back and look at my last dissection of the batting order, you’ll see I used some of the more modern (nerdy? No, I don’t live in my mom’s basement) ways of thinking when stacking the guys up from 1 through 9. I did a simple breakdown at the time, just looking at building one “master” lineup…but the way these guys are hitting – it might be time to consider not only a shuffle in the order, but some platoons. Once again, I’ll lean on ideas borrowed from The Book. And away we go…

I still believe your best hitters should be in the 1, 2, 4, and 5 positions. With the thought that your leadoff guy should have the highest possible OBP, and the way these guys are hitting…I think our new leadoff guy should be Lorenzo Cain. I’m not making this move lightly, as I’ve been a proponent of Gordon as the leadoff guy…but Gordon is flashing some power and Cain is getting on base more often. I’d stick Gordon in the next spot, though…not moving him too far from that top spot in the lineup.

Moose is heating up…is he ready to bat third? Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the top two spots settled, I think our cleanup guy is obviously Billy Butler. After getting off to a pretty slow start, Butler now leads the team in OBP and is third, behind Cain and Gordon, in OPS (these numbers do NOT reflect Wednesday’s game, by the way). But he’s coming on strong.

Our third hitter is a bit tougher to peg. We’ve got Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer as the next best hitters in this lineup. Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur, to the surprise of absolutely no one, bring up the rear and are the most likely candidates to at least be platooned, if not completely replaced, at some point.

The fourth best OPS belongs to Escobar, then we have Perez, and Hosmer. Moose is currently last on the list…but after another pretty impressive game Wednesday night, I think it’s a matter of time before he leapfrogs his way into the mix.

I may be crazy – but combining the way he’s been hitting of late with what is expected of him, I’d put Moose in that third spot versus RHP. Then I think you have to go with (after Butler at cleanup), Perez and Hosmer at 5 and 6. What about Escobar? If he’s not going to hit second anymore, I just can’t see him anywhere from 3 through 6, so we’ll put him at 7. After that, we go with Dyson rather than Frenchy (versus RHP) and then some kind of platoon with Getz and Johnson.

So the lineup versus RHP goes like this:

Lorenzo Cain RF

Alex Gordon LF

Mike Moustakas 3B

Billy Butler DH

Sal Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jarrod Dyson CF

Chris Getz/Elliot Johnson 2B

When I switch it up and fill out the lineup card against southpaws…I think we have to make a few changes. First of all – for the time being, I’m not sure you play Moose versus lefties. And if you do, I don’t think you can bat him third. I’d also go with Frenchy over Dyson in this lineup, and give Elliot Johnson the definite nod at second base, with Tejada getting some time when Moose does play.

With that being said…I think our lineup versus LHP shakes out like this:

Lorenzo Cain CF

Alex Gordon LF

Sal Perez C

Billy Butler DH

Miguel Tejada/Mike Moustakas 3B

Eric Hosmer 1B

Alcides Escobar SS

Jeff Francoeur RF

Elliot Johnson/Miguel Tejada 2B

It’s not a radical shakeup by any means, but it is different – both from my initial idea weeks ago and from what we’ve seen on a daily basis courtesy of Yost. It puts our hitters in (arguably) the right spots, while giving the team a legitimate power threat in that cleanup spot. Cain hasn’t flashed a lot of home run power just yet (I do think it will come) and would be allowed to get on base for Gordon, who was slugging at a .484 clip before hitting another homer Wednesday. Those first two spots are now filled by all-around batters who can work the count, drive the ball, run a bit (Cain can run a LOT), and have a knack for coming up with big hits.

Escobar batting lower in the order gives some protection to Hosmer, who would be batting just ahead of him. Hosmer has a good OBP at .343, but has yet to hit for any power. He won’t generally kill a rally though, and if he can get on base Escobar has a decent shot of following with a hit of his own. Another benefit to moving Escobar down – he’s grounding into a lot of double plays this season, leading the team with 7 so far. Would you rather have him killing a rally with Dyson or Frenchy on deck, or with Butler (or, according to what I’ve sketched out – Moose or Perez) waiting to bat?

When all is said and done, this team still won’t succeed by slugging a combined .390, but a slight shuffle might give them a better chance at scraping together 5 runs instead of 3. Then we just have to hope a couple of these guys start hitting the long ball.

What do you think? Am I nuts? How would you stack the order?

Omaha lost to host Reno, 7-5 as their bullpen faltered once again. After the Storm Chasers tied the game at 5-5 in the top of the 8th inning on a Willy Taveras two out, two-run single, Reno came right back to take the lead. The go ahead run came via a Donnie Joseph bases loaded walk.

Storm Chasers starter Nate Adcock was ejected (along with manager Mike Jirschele) in the 5th inning after hitting Adam Eaton with a pitch. George Sherrill followed by allowing both runners on base to score (on a double). He then gave up a run of his own. Former Royal Kila Ka’aihue hit a solo homerun in the 7th inning.

Omaha collected ten hits, but went just 3-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Max Ramirez went 2-for-4 and had the only extra base hit (a double). Xavier Nady, Anthony Seratelli, and Irving Falu each had two hits. Falu drove in two runs.

Wilmington lost to visiting Potomac, 3-2 in five innings. The rains came in the top of the 6th inning. The tarp was put on after a leadoff walk for the P-Nats.

The two teams only combined for three hits and the P-Nats only had one. Blue Rocks starter Sam Selman allowed an RBI single in the very first inning. He only lasted 4.2 innings because he walked five, hit two batters, threw two wild pitches, and allowed a stolen base.

Justin Trapp had tied the game in the 3rd inning with a solo homerun. In the 5th inning, the P-Nats scored two runs to take the lead, one on a sac fly and the other on a wild pitch. they were also helped out by a passed ball.

Apr 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) singles in a run against the Cleveland Indians during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t want to sound the all-clear too early, but according to the most trustworthy person I’ve never met—Bob Dutton—Ned Yost is considering making some changes to the lineup that include less of Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz. (awkward white-guy dance in my office while no one is looking to celebrate).

I’ve been one of the most critical of the decision to play these two but most especially of the decision to play Francoeur (I was actually in favor of giving Getz the job out of Spring Training because he earned it and Giavotella did nothing to earn it). So, what I want to do with this post is make the argument I’ve made repeatedly across different posts but in one central location for those who have yet to read it. The argument is that Jarrod Dyson should be starting over Francoeur.

Francoeur and Dyson represent a somewhat difficult line of comparison for two reasons: 1) they are remarkably different players; 2) Francoeur has a lot of major league data to draw from while Dyson has relatively little. In order to accommodate these differences we’ll have to use that thing that allows statistics to come to life: intuition. This is closely related to reason and logic but is not exactly the “eye test” so beloved by Hawk Harrelson. It’s a way of seeing what is most important to the ultimate goal of winning baseball games within the context of what’s already in place.

So, here is the overarching reason Dyson should be playing instead of Francoeur: he’s more valuable. We’ll start with their WAR, a flawed but useful stat. In 2012, the only season in which Dyson saw significant playing time, he posted a 1.6 bWAR (that is WAR as it is measured by Baseball Reference). To be fair to Francoeur, I won’t use his 2012; it was the worst season of his career. Instead, I’ll look at 2011, arguably the best season of his career, in which he posted a 3.2 WAR. Dyson posted his 1.6 WAR in 330 PA and a few handfuls of pinch running appearances. Francoeur earned his 3.2 WAR in 656 PA.

If we simply ended the analysis there, Francoeur looks to have a case for starting over Dyson or at the very least, has a case that he is equally as valuable. If we extrapolate Dyson’s 2012 into a full season, it equals roughly Francoeur’s 2011. We can really keep this analysis extremely simple by asking ourselves one question at this juncture. Do we think Dyson’s 2012 was an anomalous career year? If it wasn’t, if Dyson can do better or at the very least consistently do that well, the answer is simple; Dyson should be starting over Francoeur. Because we know that Francoeur’s 2011 was a pretty anomalous career year. He hadn’t had a year like 2011 since 2007, and those two seasons represent his only full seasons over 3.0 bWAR. He has had a few seasons of negative bWAR, meaning he was worse than replacement level. This includes his 2012 season in which he was -2.3 WAR and the worst everyday player in baseball.

I feel confident saying that Dyson is either capable of maintaining his 2012 performance or improving on it. Here is why. Dyson only hit .260 in 2012, which isn’t great. That comes from a fairly good BABIP of .318, which is pretty typical of fast guys who can scrounge a few extra singles with their legs. The reason his batting average was so low was an unusually high strikeout percentage of 17 percent. It was usually high because in the minors his strikeout rate has been closer to the 12-14 range. However, he also had a fairly high walk rate of 9.1 percent. This gave him a .328 OBP. Dyson’s value is very tied to his ability to get on base and run. As he gets more acclimated to major league pitching, it seems reasonable to believe that he can cut down on strikeouts and put more balls in play, which with his speed should mean a higher average and thus, a higher on-base percentage.

But even if Dyson doesn’t improve at all, even if he only ever performs at the level he did in 2012, he would be a better starting option than Francoeur because the likelihood of Francoeur replicating his 2011 is very low. The inconsistency experienced over his career is remarkable, but if there was a safe bet on Francoeur’s WAR over a given season, it would lie in the .5-1.5 range, which is just below major league average. Nothing to write home about. Some argue that Francoeur has value because he has more power than Dyson and a better arm. This is partially true. Francoeur’s arm and power are better than Dyson’s but not nearly enough to make up the difference in range defensively or the wildly inconsistent offense. And really, Dyson has a pretty good arm as well.

The fact is Dyson is a better defender, and he’s the better base runner by a wide margin. Those are certainties, not open for debate among reasonable people (though I’m sure a few will chime in below to show just how “reasonable” they are). At the plate, Dyson has shown that he can hit at a level that is comparable to Francoeur in every area but power and probably exceeds Francoeur in on-base ability, especially once given a chance to get more plate appearances and see more major league pitching.

The only question people should really be asking is why did this take so long for Yost to see?. 

P.S. Many favor a platoon split in this situation (Francoeur against lefties; Dyson against righties). While this is more appealing than seeing Francoeur all the time, I’d still start Dyson over Francoeur against most lefties. That’s how little faith I have in Francoeur’s ability to be a positive force at this point, regardless of his career numbers against lefties, which aren’t terrible. And while Dyson is worse against lefties, he hasn’t had enough big league plate appearances to tell us that the split will be significant enough to take the dire action of playing Francoeur.

Consider that this time last year, the Royals had already placed these players on the disabled list:

• 3/20/12: Salvador Perez (torn meniscus)
• 4/4/12: Felipe Paulino (sore right elbow)
• 4/4/12: Joakim Soria (Tommy John surgery)
• 4/4/12: Blake Wood (ulnar nerve irritation that ended up as Tommy John surgery)
• 4/12/12: Lorenzo Cain (strained groin that developed into hip flexor)
• 4/21/12: Greg Holland (rib stress reaction)
• 5/3/12: Yuniesky Betancourt (right ankle sprain)
• 5/9/12: Jonathan Sanchez (biceps tendinitis)

April 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) gets set behind home plate with umpire Marvin Hudson (51) against the Toronto Blue Jays during the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There goes your starting catcher, #4 starter, All-Star closer, average reliever, starting center fielder, setup man, “utility player”, and “#2 starter” all before the season was much more than a month old. Danny Duffy, Chris Getz and Everett Teaford would join that group on the DL before the end of May.

This year, the Royals disabled list consists of Duffy (who was shut down after a May 13 start) and Paulino (who hurt his groin in June, rehabbed, then found a torn UCL). That’s it.

The Royals have made one callup this year, twice bringing up Will Smith, and only bringing him up because of a day/night double header allowing the move. No demotions, no disabled list stints. The same 25 men from day one.

That allows the Royals to keep a regular pitching rotation (when the weather doesn’t intervene) and to keep the bullpen lined up in the roles they prefer. It allows them to get their regulars at bats and means they aren’t stuck playing someone out of position or hoping someone fills in adequately. Then, when the Royals need to shake up the lineup for a night, they have the full arsenal of players at their disposal. They can be flexible with all of the weapons they expected at the start of the year right there waiting to be called upon.

Over the course of the year, that will help a team put their best team out there every night without having to scrape something together. Just think of the rotation last year. Kansas City used 13 different starters over the course of the season. They used 46 total players. In 2011, they used 42 players, but most of those moves involved promoting prospects and sending down (or waiving) players who’d opened the year on the roster. Bruce Chen hit the DL, as did Matt Treanor and otherwise, there were no other significant injuries.

So far, so good for this year’s team as well.

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) during batting practice before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The first decision that prompted outrage was the removal of James Shields after 8 scoreless innings on Monday. You know the story, Shields was cruising having allowed only 2 hits to the punchless White Sox but Yost chose to bring in his closer, Gregg Holland, to finish the game. Holland blew the save and the Royals eventually lost in 11 innings. I actually didn’t have a problem with this move. In his previous 9 appearances, Holland had allowed zero earned runs and struck out 16 in 9 innings. The league hit .156/.206/.219 against him during that time so it was reasonable to expect Holland to come in and pitch and scoreless 9th. Games like these are heart breakers and, spoiler alert, will happen again.

Last night’s decision is harder to defend, so I won’t. With the go ahead runner on base Yost turned to the absolute worst guy to go to, Luke Hochevar. Hoch’s struggles with men on base are well documented so it came as no great surprise when the run scored. He’s been pretty solid lately, and Aaron Crow was being saved for a save situation, so the move made some sense, but it would have made more if Hochevar had started the 8th inning. A manager has to put his players in position to succeed and Yost didn’t do that last night. Since he didn’t learn anything the last time Hochevar let inherited runners score we can only hope he was genuinely paying attention last night.

A move, or rather non-move, getting less publicity is Yost’s decision to not send George Kottaras to the plate in the 9th inning. Instead he trotted out the low OBP trifecta of Jeff Francoeur, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas. Kottaras has come to the plate in a late and close situation six times this year and has drawn a walk in four of them. They needed a baserunner and, small sample size or not, he’s shown an ability to get on base.

The last time Jarrod Dyson started a game he had 2 hits, 2 RBIs and a stolen base. That was April 28th in a 9-0 win against the Indians. In the 8 games since, Jeff Francoeur has put up a .200/.250/.333 line in 32 plate appearances. Dyson has seemingly been typecast as Billy Butler‘s late game pinch runner. He’s good at it, sure, but there’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be starting against right-handed pitching.

NW Arkansas was shut out 6-0 by visiting Arkansas.

Noel Arguelles did not pitch that bad, as he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks over six innings. However JC Sulbaran continues to struggle, as he allowed three runs in the 7th inning on three hits (including a homer) and a walk. His ERA ballooned to 12.00.

The Naturals only collected three hits, two singles and a double by Manny Pina.

Blue Rocks starter Kyle Smith during his May 1, 2013 start.

Wilmington opened their series with Potomac with a 4-1 win. The P-Nats did not pick up their first hit off Kyle Smith until a leadoff single in the fifth. That hitter was thrown out at second base trying to stretch it into a double.

In his final inning, Smith got into a bases loaded jam (one hit and two walks) in the sixth, but escaped. His line looked like this: 6IP, 2H, 0R, 3BB, 3K. Scott Alexander allowed an unearned run in the seventh that cut the Blue Rocks lead to 2-1, but they came right back with two runs in the bottom of the inning.

The Blue Rocks’ seven hits came from the 2-6 hitters, with Jorge Bonifacio going 3-for-4. Daniel Mateo scored there runs in the win.

Lexington lost to Lakewood 1-0 in the series finale. The Blue Claws scored the game’s lone run in the seventh.

Miguel Almonte was the hard luck loser, as he allowed one run on five hits and two walks over 6.2 innings. He struck out seven.

The Legends only picked up three hits in the loss, all singles. Bubba Starling saw his strikeout-less streak come to an end at two games. He struck out Tuesday night in the 4th inning. The game saw five caught stealings on the bases and three of them were Legends’ runners.