Gio has played at third base eight times over the past couple of weeks.  Couple at third then back to second base for a couple of games.  There is no way to interpret this other than as seeing if he is a viable candidate as a fill in to get Moose some remedial time.  Now I have almost no way of telling if he is up to the task defensively, but the Royals have consistently questioned his second base abilities.  Could he be better at third, sure it’s possible, but how quickly and is that really very likely?  Last year he played four games at third base, was basically called a disaster there (.833 fielding percentage, sorry this is about it for metrics on minor league fielding that I have access to).  He has been better by the crude fielding percentage metric so far this year posting a .926, but this is a very, very small sample with only 27 chances and 2 errors.  Right now Moustakas fielding percentage is .938 though, so not much better and well below last year’s .967, so it looks like Moose is struggling in the field anyway and advanced fielding metrics show him struggling a bunch after being great last year too.

Mar 5, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) grounds out during the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Should the Royals try this?  I say yes.  It could be a disaster, but you just lost a series to Houston to drop back below .500 on the year, so it is time to try something since disaster is already here.  Also, if it works this could turn out to be a fantastic turn of events.  Think of the best case scenario.  Johnny comes up and acquits himself well enough at third.  Moose goes down and gets back on track the way guys like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have done in the past.  When Moustakas is ready to come back, if Johnny is hitting well they can move him to second and Getz can go to Omaha.  This could result in better play from two spots on the infield.  It could lead to a problem if Eric Hosmer also needs some time in the minors since the line-up might end up with almost no left handed bats, but that is a problem for another day.  Giavotella deserves another shot, one where he gets to play EVERY DAY, no more jerking him around.  If he is not going to be an embarrassment at third the Royals can give him one last shot and possibly end up looking very smart in the process.

Worst Case?  Third base continues to be a black hole, the front office skepticism of Giavotella is confirmed, and Moustakas keeps struggling.  In other words status quo.  It is an all upside move unless their is a belief that Moose is better off in the long run, and can, turn things around at the big league level.  Something needs to change on this team, and this sort of shake-up seems like a great way to do something without risking much.  I am glad to see Gio at third since it might mean that this is the way the Royals are thinking too.

Sometimes it’s a good idea to just dive in without a plan and see what happens, and that’s what we did this week. There was plenty to discuss about the Royals and we tried to get everything in from clubhouse leadership to Jeff Francoeur‘s role. We also talked about the offense’s troubles, focusing on Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. We brought up questions about sending players down to make adjustments, which lead to talking about Johnny Giavotella versus Chris Getz.

Then we covered the minor leagues, checking in on some of the big name players, marveling that Adalberto Mondesi wants to be called Raul (“Doesn’t that make three Raul Mondesis?”) and wondering about Jason Adam‘s struggles in Double A. We also had to confront Bubba Starling‘s early troubles.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Chris Getz is 29 years old and will turn 30 before the end of this season.  He made his debut in the majors for the White Sox in 2008 for a cup of coffee and then got a half season in 2009.  The Royals traded for him in 2010 and have tried to make him a full time second baseman, but injuries have made than an impossibility with 118 games in the bigs as his high water mark.  Here is the thing though, nobody should really want him to play full time.  Last year Getz put up his best offensive year (.275/.312/.360) by having an okay average and below average on-base and power.  Fangraphs ranked him overall as the 41^st best at his position (by fWAR) in his BEST SEASON with even Irving Falu putting up more WAR in just 24 games, and the age almost guarantees he is not getting any better from this point forward.

On the other hand, Johnny Giavotella will turn 26 in July, which means he is about to enter his peak years of production.  Gio has been a consistent hitter at the minor league level.  His worst OPS was .731 as a 21 year old in Wilmington’s terrible hitting environment.  The consistent minor league numbers have not however translated to the major leagues.  His first shot in 2011 came at the end of the year and he managed a very Getzian 77 OPS+ over the last two months of the season.  2012 went even worse.

Last year second base should have been given to Gio at the beginning of the season regardless of which of these two was the better player in the eyes of the Royals.  No one expected the team to compete and the most value from second base would have been finding out if Johnny could handle the position at the MLB level.  That did not happen.  Instead they jerked him around all year and then said told you so and gave the job back to Getz again this year.  He didn’t make his big league debut in 2012 until May and he got about half of the starts in that month and hit .239/.300/.304, which is far from great but not untenable either since it looks almost exactly like Alex Gordon’s line in the same month.  In June he only got 7 starts, July none, back up in August with 11, and then finally in

September 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) reacts after losing his bat during a swing in the seventh inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

September he started almost every game and had his best month of the year.

Going into this year we all knew that Getz would be the starting second baseman despite the “competition” in spring.  Getzy can really work the leather according to Ned Yost, but his advanced stats don’t back that up.  In fact, he had a negative UZR last year.  I don’t tend to trust fielding stats so that is not the end all be all, but at no point have I seen him make really great plays either.  Nothing he has done has made me feel he is an elite defender who can make up for his bat with his defense.  Don’t get me wrong, I think Getz is better than Giavotella on the defensive side, but I don’t think the difference is all that significant.  Getz is average and Gio is a little below average, so I’d rather have the bat that might actually be able to produce at an above average rate.

Now the season has begun and everything is just as it has been.  Getz still can’t hit, his first home run as a Royal notwithstanding, and Gio is beating up AAA pitching again.  There is a chance that Johnny Giabotella is a quadruple A player who will never translate his minor league success into a valuable big league career.  Here’s the rub though, there is a chance that he will.  Chris Getz is what he is, a barely above replacement level, injury prone second baseman.  Why not start the guy who can be more?

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

So let’s move on from that and see how this most recent move affects the Royals’ Triple A affiliate. Much like the starting rotation, the second base spot at Omaha appears to be somewhat crowded. Lee Warren wrote an article yesterday on the Storm Chasers’ probable roster, containing quotes from the manager, Mike Jirschele. In it, Jirschele mentions that Gio will be sharing time with 2010 first round draft pick, Christian Colon. Says Jirschele: Colon “could possibly be an everyday second baseman in the big leagues, we feel. He’s going to have to get over there and get a lot of playing time.”

Colon has spent a majority of his career at shortstop, but there have been questions about his ability to handle the position defensively. Many feel his future is at second base, and apparently the Royals agree. Others who could also take starts away from Giavotella include Irving Falu, Anthony Seratelli, and Rey Navarro. Falu and Seratelli are more in the mold of utility players, and Navarro’s defense may be better than the other players, but there are questions about his bat. Realistically, the two main candidates for manning the keystone will be Giavotella and Colon.

It will be very telling of how the Royals feel about each player based upon the amount of playing time each receives at second base in Omaha. If Giavotella seems to be getting most of the starts, then perhaps the organization still feels like he could be a contributor to the big league club. But if Colon is playing most of the Storm Chasers’ innings there, I think it would be safe to say the front office sees Colon as the better replacement for Getz.

Personally, I wouldn’t understand that decision at all, based upon both players’ track records. Giavotella has done nothing but hit at every level (sans his extremely limited 376 plate appearances in Kansas City), while Colon has been disappointing in his 3 professional seasons. And even though Colon’s defensive prowess may be greater than Gio’s, I feel that Giavotella’s shortcomings in that department have been massively overblown. I see Giavotella as a guy with slightly limited range, but a strong arm and average hands. His defense would certainly play at the next level, if only given a real opportunity, and — oops.

I need to get back on track before I start bleeding out of my ears.

There are ways around this logjam, of course. Earlier this spring, Ned Yost mentioned the possibility of giving Giavotella some time in the outfield, so Omaha may try a lineup where Gio plays in left field, although I don’t know if that will work out terribly well. Colon could spend more time at shortstop, but if the Royals see him as a future second baseman, they will likely prefer he start getting more reps at that position. Then, of course, there is the option of trading someone.

I’m sure there are general managers that see Giavotella as a player who could still succeed, so if Dayton Moore doesn’t see him as a real candidate for the second baseman of the future, Gio could be a part of a trade package. Some other teams could see Colon as having more potential, and if the right offer came along, Moore could choose to make that deal. On the other hand, if Colon continues to fall short of expectations at the plate, the organization could decide to move on from him and just give the playing time to Giavotella.

I won’t pretend to know what the Royals will do with this situation, since we clearly are not operating on the same wavelength. I would love to see Gio get a full season to prove himself. If the organization doesn’t think he’s capable of being even an average major leaguer, then I hope Colon finally starts to produce at a level one would expect from a top 5 draft pick. Regardless of which second baseman the Royals prefer, I’m looking forward to some real games, where we hopefully will get a clearer picture of which direction the team wants to go.

Mar 5, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) reacts after being called out on strikes during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The decision isn’t surprising, as Getz entered spring the assumed favorite and hit better in spring training games. Getz enters Saturday with a .372/.426/.512 line, including a home run. He also has three steals in four attempts. Giavotella hasn’t been hitting poorly, but his .267/.283/.400 line just wasn’t enough to overtake Getz. His one non-base hit was a hit by pitch and he had no stolen bases.

It’s just not enough to unseat the incumbent.

If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you’d expect me to be upset, to lead the charge towards One Royal Way, pitchfork and torch in hand. I’ve long been a believer in Giavotella. He’s hit at every level of the minor leagues, and hit well. Not just well enough for a second baseman, either. Well for any player in the league. At one point in 2011, he had more base hits than anyone in professional baseball and shortly after was called up.

I wonder how much his hip injury bothered him in late 2011 and if he’d have hit better at the time if 2012 would have been less of a competition. He was called up in May 2012 but never got consistent playing time until Getz got hurt late in the year. After that, he didn’t take the opportunity.

It’s possible that Giavotella won’t be able to approach his minor league numbers in the big leagues. To this point, that’s what it looks like. The Royals would have been better off spending 2012 learning more about him as a big leaguer with an everyday job, and if he couldn’t do the job in a full season of 600 at bats, then at least they’d know that he couldn’t do it. Why the Royals say they think 1000 plate appearances is their benchmark for evaluating a player, but decide Giavotella’s fate after less than 400 surprises me, but not that much. At this point, they have their eyes set on pushing for the division and they feel that Getz is an everyday player and that they can’t wait for Giavotella to sort it out.

For what it’s worth, Bob Dutton has said that the Royals feel more comfortable with Giavotella’s defense, which was always behind his bat in the minors. Dutton said in a Q&A that “I think club officials believe his defense is good enough to play every day — if he hits.” And he’s hit well enough in spring training, but hasn’t gotten on base well enough, and hasn’t done either well enough to surpass Getz.

Mar 16, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals base runner Chris Getz (17) slides into second base in the eighth inning during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs at HoHoKam stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

That’s the reality. If Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, and Alcides Escobar continue to develop, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon merely produce at their typical levels, and maybe Lorenzo Cain breaks out, whoever’s at second won’t be a big deal.

It would be disingenuous of me to be upset about this decision. I knew Getz was the starter going into spring training, and he’s done everything he’s had to do to hold onto the job. It’s that simple. I prefer Giavotella as the option with more room to grow, but it’s not my decision.

Reports out there say that Getz has adjusted – again – his batting stance from the upright “more power” stance last year to a more crouched stance this year. Will it make a difference? Probably not. He had a higher batting average last season, but his on base percentage was right in line with his career line. He’s the known commodity, and that’s a comfort the Royals want to stick with.

Blame Stefen Romero, who hit a grand slam off of Guillermo Moscoso in the fourth inning, then launced a three-run homer in the ninth against Anthony Ortega. He and Casper Wells contributed 11 RBIs in the 12-2 win as Kansas City pitchers gave up three homers as a team.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

You’d probably prefer something positive to wash away the defeat . How about this – none of the pitchers with a decent chance to make the team gave up big innings. Ervin Santana had three strong innings in his second appearance as a Royal which included four strikeouts, no walks and only one run allowed. Even better, his velocity was comfortably in the 91-92 range (around his average) and touched 93 and 94 mph. Since Santana is considered an injury risk (after losing velocity and command last year), hanging around his average velocity should be a good sign going forward (even if Buster Olney said some scouts think Santana is the next Jonathan Sanchez).

Louis Coleman and Donnie Joseph also threw scoreless innings. Coleman walked one and struck out one. Joseph continued his strikeout barrage, adding two more to his spring total of nine in four innings. He’s allowed one hit. If there’s any consideration of taking the best player rather than trying to protect a lesser non-option player, Joseph is going to make the team out of spring training at this rate. More likely, though, he’ll start in Omaha and Francisley Bueno will probably be the left-handed specialist.

There will be other games and other opportunities and perhaps the Royals can rattle off another streak of twelve unbeaten games – that will be erased once the regular season starts.

Other Spring Notes:

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas is seen in the dugout with a cut lip after a collision with Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Adam Eaton (not pictured) in the first inning during a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

-In Wednesday’s game, Mike Moustakas got a fat lip from Adam Eaton while tagging him during a rundown. Eaton was picked off second by James Shields and as he tried to evade an approaching Moose (and who wouldn’t try to avoid a fast-charging moose, right?), he popped Moustakas in the mouth accidentally. Moustakas afterward suggested that Eaton doesn’t have much feel for the game. He’ll be fine.

-Jeff Francoeur has been playing more DH than right field the last couple of days due to minor hip soreness. It doesn’t seem to be an issue of much concern. Yet.

-Ned Yost raised eyebrows by saying that he was going to try Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella in the outfield this spring to get a look at them and to potentially increase their versatility. Reactions raised from critically snarky to reasonably critical of the wisdom of the move, to generally supportive of adding some utility.

My thoughts are that it’s bizarre timing to do such an experiment. Getz hasn’t played the outfield since the minors and Giavotella has two whole innings there as a pro. Neither would be the type of ballplayer one would expect to make a quick transition like that, especially after the immensely more talented Alex Gordon took most of 2010 to make such a transition. It’s likely just a thought for emergency purposes and may have just been an off the cuff mention of what they might try with the two second basemen (I was not there to get the context of the statement – and the comment has significantly different weight if Yost opens his daily media session with that tidbit versus if he’s closing out and tosses it out as a quick answer to a follow up).

Neither of their bats are likely to play well in the outfield and if Giavotella’s biggest knock – and the reason given for his banishment in Triple A before debuting in the majors – is his defense at second, then is it safe to assume that he’s suitably made adjustments at his primary position? Why else start moving him around? I’m all for more flexibility, but if the Royals turn around and claim that Giavotella (or Getz for that matter, even though everyone should know my feelings on that battle by now) weren’t adequately prepared for this or that reason after spring training, then it should come back to a question of how much time they spent tinkering in the outfield.

I don’t expect it to get any traction. Neither have the arm to play right field and would be suspect in left field as well.

-Danny Duffy is throwing curveballs on flat ground now as he works towards a June or July return after Tommy John surgery last season.

-Tomorrow, the Royals have split squad games. Noel Arguelles will start in the afternoon against the Cleveland Indians. Jeremy Guthrie will start against the Colorado Rockies in the evening.

At that point in his career Getz had a .254/.315/.307 line that would suggest he should be little more than a back-up, if a back-up at all. With just 46 extra-base hits total (!) in those plate appearances, a rather overrated glove at second base, and an inability to play any other position on the diamond, it isn’t as if Getz brought some extreme trait to the table that suggested he should remain an option.

Yuniesky Betancourt entered the 2012 season with 3,641 plate appearances (3,446 at-bats), and a .268/.291/.391, an average of 40 extra-base hits per year, and an 82 OPS+. His defense was atrocious, his base running was bad, and on top of it all he was being asked to play other positions, something he had never done.

In each of those players the Royals saw potential, saw the possibility of improvement, or at the very least stability at a position the organization has been weak at* for a number of years.

*Well, one of the many.

Entering the 2012 season Johnny Giavotella had 187 plate appearances, or just 178 at-bats. He was called up on August 5^th for a game in Detroit after having a terrific year in Triple-A posting a .330/.391/.438 line with 9 homeruns and 34 doubles. He was always a tad suspect with the glove, but what he could do was hit, hit for some power, and get on base. All of those things that neither Getz nor Betancourt had proven capable of to that point in their careers.

What Giavotella didn’t do though in his first 46 games of his career in 2011, or in Spring Training 2012*, is hit the ground running.

*It is still one of the more ridiculous notions in baseball that a good or bad Spring Training can either win or lose a position battle.

By the time he got his chance again in 2012, fans and the organization had already written Giavotella off as a failure in a big league uniform. Of course, he didn’t help matters much when he finally did get his chance again and in 21 games  (71 plate appearances) went .210/.260/.261 from May 9^th to June 10^th. Then after being recalled on Aug 18^th and going .250/.276/.330 in the seasons final 32 games, that seemingly was all she wrote for the career of Johnny Giavotella.  The Royals signed Miguel Tejada for the role as the “veteran backup”, Chris Getz is still “mistake free” and this year might actually hit a homerun, and Giavotella is the guy that just can’t make it in the major leagues.

Except, there’s that whole “1,000 at-bats” thing.

Dayton Moore has made a habit of using that phrase as his benchmark for how long it takes a player to fully establish who he is, and what he will be as an every day player. Chris Getz was at that mark before 2012 and couldn’t do enough wrong to be removed from contention as the starting second baseman despite having just 46 extra-base hits. Yuniesky Betancourt was at that mark during the 2007 season, had already established himself as one of the worst position players in baseball, and the Royals had just acquired him for the second time.

In a recent interview with Sports Radio 810, while Moore was talking about Giavotella and praising him for what he could be, he interrupted his thought to make sure he mentioned Chris Getz and how much he’s going to continue to improve. The question had nothing to do with Getz. He then went on to say: “We know it (takes) 2-4 years of playing every day at the major league level to become a consistent producer.”

If an organization doesn’t think a player is talented enough to get the job done, for one reason or another, that’s one thing. It’s something completely different to continue to prop up that player who has proven to be mediocre-at-best performer by using some arbitrary measure, and then not apply that same measure to develop another player who has a greater history for success.

Johnny Giavotella may not ever amount to much in a Royals uniform. He may not ever amount to much in any big league uniform. But, he was a second round pick that did nothing but produce in the minor leagues, and is 600 at-bats away from the mythical proving ground that is 1,000. And yet he’s the one that still has so much to prove.

It’s quite the double standard.

Getz is a valuable runner… Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

With most of the big league roster settled – everyday lineup, starting rotation, bullpen – the only positions really up for grabs are those of the fifth starter and second baseman. I’ve banged the pitching drum enough, so let’s take a look at the question mark that is second base.

Right now, it appears playing time is likely to be divided between Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella. Of course, there is an outside chance Miguel Tejada has something to contribute, although he turns 39 in May and hasn’t had a big league at bat since 2011, when he hit .239 in 91 games for the San Francisco Giants.

So we have a possible three-headed Frankenstein monster on our hands here – Miguel Getzavotella. Or something like that. Most likely though, we’re looking at a two-headed beast with a platoon of Getz (left handed batter) and Giavotella (a righty). While it’s not the greatest use of roster space to carry two players who can only play one position (unless we’re talking about catchers), it might be the best route in 2013.

Getz is the more known quantity here. We know he’s not great at getting on base (.314 career OBP) but can probably hit .265 or so – last year, he hit .275 in 64 games, prior to a thumb injury leading to surgery and a premature end to his season. We also know he can run – in the two seasons he’s played more than 100 games, he’s racked up 25 and 21 steals (2009 and 2011). According to Baseball Reference, his 162 game average has Getz stealing 31 bases with an 81% success rate, making him a valuable runner. He’s not a real dangerous hitter, but stick him at the bottom of the order and he’s not a bad speed guy to have down there as the lineup rolls back to the top.

…but will he hit? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Getz is also a pretty good fielder. Staying with Baseball Reference, his Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average (yeah, it’s a mouthful, so let’s stick with the abbreviated Rtot) sits at 5 for his career at the position. If you throw out 2008 (he only played seven games) his Rtot from 2009-2012 at second base is 3. His range factor (RF) supports his status as an average fielder. Getz has a RF/9 of 4.81 during his five seasons in the big leagues. Over that same span, the league average is 4.75, putting him just a bit ahead of the curve. He also has a slightly higher fielding percentage than league average (.987 vs. .985). It’s safe to say that Getz is probably, at his worst, an average fielder.

Switching over to the other half of our platoon, we have Giavotella, who has terrorized minor league pitching since 2010. Johnny had an .855 OPS in 2010 at AA, actually got better in AAA with an .871, and improved again in 2012 with an .877 OPS in 89 AAA games. He’s been less impressive in two short stints with the big league club though, with a .611 OPS in 99 total games. He also possesses less speed than Getz; with his career high in steals (26) coming in 2009 in High A ball. He doesn’t have much power, either, but has hit the ball hard in the minors and looks to be a singles and double hitter who will probably cap out around 10-12 homers in most years.

Giavotella is not as slick in the field as Getz. In his 91 big league games, his Rtot is a -15 (yes, that’s a NEGATIVE 15) while his RF/9 (4.13) sits well below the league average of 4.70 for 2011-2012. His fielding percentage is also 13 points below the league average for that same time period. That’s not to say he can’t improve. This is a small sample size, but defense has never been his strong suit. The bat will have to improve to offset his shortcomings in the field.

Now that we know where they’ve been, where are they going? Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from as far as figuring out what to expect. I think Getz is pretty much what he is at this point, while Giavotella has much room for improvement (we don’t know that he will, but it’s possible). Let’s check out some projections.

Switching websites now, the Bill James Projections at Fangraphs predict Getz will play 92 games and have a triple slash

Giavotella – potentially a dangerous hitter. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

(AVG/OBP/SLG) of .267/.327/.337. That’s about what we’d expect, given his track record. The fan projections on Fangraphs are similar, guessing he’ll play 110 games and produce at a .261/.309/.323 rate.

Fangraphs also has the ZiPS projections this year (formerly released at Baseball Think Factory). ZiPS does come with the

following disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predict playing time in the majors. So basically, the games played/plate appearances will not necessarily be accurate, but the production rates will be. ZiPS has Getz at 334 plate appearances in 2013 with a slash line of .259/.310/.316. That’s still in line with the other numbers, so we have a pretty solid consensus.

Giavotella’s Bill James numbers have him playing the bulk of games at second, with 128 games played and a .286/.339/.407 slash line. The James predictions show a spike in production for Johnny, probably based more on his minor league track record. The fan projections aren’t as optimistic, calling for 80 games and a .266/.316/.367 production rate. Finally, we return to ZiPS to round out our comparison. ZiPS has 677 plate appearances (remember that disclaimer) and a .266/.316/.368 line, which is right in line with the fan prediction.

After all this…where do we stand? Well…we’ve got two pretty similar hitters on our hands here. One (Getz) with better speed, while the other hits more line drives and potentially finds himself on base more often. One (Getz) can play some defense, while the other has struggled in the field. I’d bore you with more stats and dissect their splits, but that doesn’t differentiate them either. Getz is not particularly productive against right handed pitchers, and Giavotella doesn’t rake against southpaws.

A longshot at age 39. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

My suggestion? Barring one of them earning the job outright in spring, start the year with Getz getting the majority of playing time. He’s a better defender and a better runner. Until Johnny flashes that bat we’re waiting to see, he should play against some lefties and against guys he has hit well in the past. Given that we have moved into “win now” territory, we need the guy who provides more value, and as of now that player is Getz.

That said, I think if one of these guys has the ability to really surprise us, it’ll be Giavotella. Like I said, he’s got a lot of upside, and the Bill James projections agree. Even though the team wants to win, it would be foolish to put potentially good players on the shelf. Developing talent is still a must.

Until one of these guys either wows everyone or falls flat on his face, it looks like a two-man job. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

“It’s been four weeks since the last Monday Rant and the reason for the absence is really quite obvious: what is there, really, to write about?

The #OurMissionTime2012 season is barreling towards yet another uneventful close to yet another worse-than-mediocre record, and the same missteps and pratfalls that have plagued a losing franchise continue to do so because they just can’t seem to get out of their own way. Reasons are given for moving players in the lineup that make little logical sense, excuses are made for historically bad pitchers for reasons why their future is bright, and a “fiscally responsible” move is glossed over and painted with a “smart” brush when a compelling argument could be made that it really amounts to the organization being cheap.”

I wrote that lede a week ago as I tried to sit down and bang out yet another award-winning post. (unroll your eyes, that was sarcasm) After further reflection on where I am with my fandom and where the Royals are in their evolution to semi-relevance, I have to stop myself a little. Yes those same head-scratching moves are made, and the same illogical reasons are given by the Royals for decisions that seem to never pan out (“Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero for a left-handed reliever with over a strikeout per inning, yes!”), but it is the final two months of the season and they are once again playing good baseball. Well, overall, I guess, before a pretty dreadful September

And so the reflection comes at a time when columns and articles and tweets are written after a 17-11 month of August about what could have been. And even after a 12-17 September, there are still some making the argument that if, just if, the Royals had played this “well” (.447 winning percentage) during the devastating 12-game losing streak in April, they would be 76-83 on the year. A perfectly justifiable way of thinking if you’re willing to tilt your head and squint your eyes just right. But those 12 games still count, and the glaring holes in a team whose success is built solely on contact, both offensively and defensively, doesn’t scale well over a full season.

Plus, doesn’t this happen every September? Even if a quality stretch run after the Royals have long since been eliminated from playoff contention isn’t a true annual occurrence, it sure as heck seems like it is. Whether it’s the “Kyle Davies is finally good” months or the will he/won’t he wishy-wash of whether Luke Hochevar has finally figured out why he’s so historically bad at throwing a baseball, September is always a time for optimism around Royals-land, at least that’s what the narrative wants fans to believe.

There are always a lot a lot of words written across the Internet about whether September performances are relevant or not, but in the Royals case it mostly is the latter of those two answers. With everyone losing their minds that maybe, just maybe, this time it’s the former.

This, fortunately, it’s not one of those posts.

Because, the Royals final two months this year is largely irrelevant due to three main storylines that show the symptoms of bad baseball with the decisions being made. Decisions that have put the Dayton Moore-led Royals at 87 loses or more in each of his six seasons as General Manager.

Alex Gordon is moved out of leadoff to the number three spot in the order

For the most part, lineup order has been proven to be a near meaningless aspect of run scoring from game-to-game. However, one of the main tenants of lineup order is that the guys that make the least amount of outs per plate appearances need to bat more often. Thus, they need to bat higher in the order.

Now there’s a certain dance managers must do in order to balance their on-base guys with their power guys in order to maximize those times runners are actually on base. That being said, the Royals have only two guys in their lineup that fit either description (well, that’s being generous, as neither is really a “power guy”), and both are currently hitting No.3 and No.4 (Alex Gordon and Billy Butler) and both for the better part of the last two months have been batting behind some combination of on-base-averse Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, Jason Bourgeois, and to a lesser extent, Alcides Escobar.

What we were told at the time is that Alex Gordon is a “run producer” (whatever that means) and that he profiles more as a No.3 hitter than a leadoff hitter (he doesn’t), so moving him to the middle of the order now gets him more acclimated to a spot that figures to be his long-term home. Except, there’s no evidence to support either the argument that Gordon is better suited outside of leadoff or that he’s a “run producer” (whatever that means).

Since moving down two spots in the order to a more “run producing” role, the Royals also moved at least one player ahead of Gordon who rarely gets on base and doesn’t profile as a leadoff hitter, unless we’re talking 1970s baseball.  Also, Gordon’s numbers have shown him to be less patient and thus, a less productive player:

Previous 70 games before the move: .334/.398/.500

The 43 games since the move: .287/.344/.461

What’s most telling about these numbers isn’t that there’s a near 50-point difference in on-base percentage, and a near 40-point difference in slugging, it’s that they’re entirely predictable.

Obviously there’s a difference in sample sizes but the root cause of drop in production is because Gordon has been officially #Royaled into the hack-away approach to run producing. It’s how they do things. They don’t want guys up there taking walks; they want guys looking to “drive in runs”. Which brings up two very important questions:

How is the so-called “run producer” supposed to produce runs when you’re batting guys in front of them that never get on base?

If walks are bad, does that mean outs are good?

This lessening of production isn’t affecting just the player being moved either. Over that same time frame, here are the overall numbers for team production:

Previous 70 games before the move: .271/.319/.412

The 43 games since the move: .261/.310/.381

Not a drastic shift, but a shift nonetheless, especially when you consider that for much of the 70 games with Gordon batting leadoff the Royals were without Salvador Perez or Lorenzo Cain, and playing Jeff Francoeur’s black-hole bat every day instead of the occasional day off he has been getting.

Maybe this is all much ado about nothing. Maybe. But the fact that this is 2012 and nearly every other franchise is Major League Baseball has at least acknowledge the importance of on-base percentage, the Royals continue preach and practice things that only make winning more difficult.

And for those that don’t think moving Gordon down three spots in the order amounts to much: in his 70 games batting leadoff he average 4.62 plate appearances per game; in his 43 games batting third, 4.25. Spread out over the course of 162 games, that’s 60 plate appearances.

Now, would you rather Alex Gordon be seeing those plate appearances, or some combination of Dyson, Cain, and Bourgeois?

Luke Hochevar still has what it takes to be a quality pitcher on a championship rotation

#LOL

We need to figure out what we have in Johnny Giavotella Irving Falu and Tony Abreu

Filed from the “let’s give playing time to the 30-year-old, career minor leaguer” department, there’s this gift that keeps on giving.

The argument against Johnny Giavotella to begin the year was a fairly simple one: Chris Getz was performing at a half-way decent level and Giavotella wasn’t.

See, everyone can get behind that.

At this point though not playing Giavotella is, well, that’s so Royals.

Nevermind what you may think of a player’s defensive abilities, when the team is fighting off another 90-loss season, is the argument over what a player “can’t” do even valid anymore? This is exactly the time to figure out if that player can get any better, and if he can be a member of the team next season.

But no, the Royals must find out what they have in either Falu or Abreu, because 30-year-old second basemen that can play just a little defense are never readily available. Except, well yeah, they kind of are.

Giavotella has never really performed to his expectations of what his minor league numbers suggested at the big league level, but his opportunities have never really been there either. There’s always been inconsistent playing team, a sure emphasis on being more aggressive at the plate (judging solely on evidence provided everyone else on the roster), and what must be a world of pressure on Giavotella to order produce just to work his way into the lineup the next day.

Maybe eventually it will be proven that Giavotella just isn’t as good as either Falu or Abreu. The only problem with that is that the Royals may well never find out for sure, and even if he isn’t, what purpose is there to sitting him on the bench, now, when the team isn’t winning anything anyway?

It’s a constant two steps forward and one step back for the organization. A song that could be put on repeat until the tape wears out, and a problem the Royals wouldn’t have if they’d just move on to MP3s already like the rest of baseball, instead of continuing to sing along with cassettes. Each of these moves may be defensible when taken individually, but each of them fits the face-palming cloud that’s hovered over the franchise for nearly three decades now.

Until the philosophy that makes these decisions possible changes, I’m not sure anyone should be able excuse this year because of injuries or “one bad stretch”. Benefit of the doubt doesn’t extend that far yet.

May 9, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals batter Johnny Giavotella (9) drives in a run against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Getz was able to carry over a solid spring into the season and maintain his position as the team’s starting second baseman for the first few months.  With Gio playing well in Omaha, he was promoted in May, and let’s just say he didn’t do all that much to stay with the big club.  A .239 average in May and a .174 clip in June doesn’t warrant a 25-man roster spot for long.  His call up was disappointing to say the least for those who had been campaigning for the youngster to claim the job.  It certainly didn’t help him that he received sporadic playing time and could never find a groove.  His main fault has always been his defense at second base, but throughout the ranks of the minor leagues he has always found a way to rake.  It doesn’t bode well for a guy who is known for his bat, that he’s not able to provide that at the big league level.  Luckily, Gio is going to have a few more chances.

An injury struck Chris Getz in August and forced him to miss the rest of the season.  This was a fortuitous break for Gio as he now is the regular second baseman getting the majority of starts the rest of the way.  In this time, from his last recall, Gio has improved his play defensively, but is still not hitting up to expectations.  However, as of late, Gio has started to catch fire.  He finally hit his first home run of the season on September 4th against the Rangers.  Through the first 9 games in September, Gio is hitting .344 and has shown a bit of consistency.  What’s troubling me are his strikeout to walk numbers.  In 142 at bats this season, he has 28 strikeouts to only 8 walks, good for a 18.8K% and a 5.4BB%.

This is still an open competition as we end the season and head into the spring.  Getz is still the better runner and has the better glove.  Due to a stance change he has also been hitting at a consistent level with a little more extra base pop than what we are used to seeing from him.  Gio must dominate pitching the way he has for Omaha the last two seasons if he wants the starting job all to himself.  Otherwise, we will still be looking at a platoon type of situation for next year or it could very well be Chris Getz’s job again.

August 24, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella (9) bats during the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

Question: have we all put too much faith in the abilities of Johnny Giavotella? I have to ask it. Don’t get me wrong, I hate to ask it, but I have to ask it at this point. I know 78 major league games isn’t a whole lot, but the picture that’s forming for the 25-year-old second baseman isn’t as rosy as many of us had hoped. And because he has yet to show the type of promise his very good AAA numbers indicate he has, it’s making me nervous.

I had extremely high hopes for Giavotella. I thought he might be a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia (with a little worse glove and a little less pop). His numbers in AAA over the last two seasons have been incredible (.323/.404/.472 in 2012 and .338/.390/.481 in 2011). He profiled as a high average, high on-base, gap power, offensive second baseman, which was great for the Royals, a team that is already strong up the middle defensively and sometimes has a tendency to over-value defense.

But he’s now had exactly 300 PA in the major leagues, and so far, it’s not looking so hot. His slash line, .237/.263/.331, is Francoeur-esque, and we knew his defense wouldn’t be anything to write home about. His BABIP is fairly low, .288 in 2011 and is .267 this season, which provides some hope. But he’s the one putting the balls in play.

Other than the balls not dropping, which I partially blame Giavotella for but not entirely, it seems his plate discipline isn’t what it was at AAA. I heard one of the radio broadcasters mention an interview with him in which he stated that pitchers are pitching him backwards now, and he’s struggling with that. It’s certainly reflected in his walk rate, which took an amazing dive after each call up to the majors, while his strikeout rate spikes soared. In 2011, his walk rate went from eight percent to 3.2 percent while his strikeout rate went from 11.3 percent to 17.1 percent. In 2012, same story—BB% from 11 to 3.5, K% from 9.6 to 16.8.

So, here’s my hypothesis on Giavotella’s issues. Yes, I think they’re throwing him more breaking balls, especially in fastball counts. I think he struggles with that. But I also think he’s putting pressure on himself not only to get on base but to hit. There’s no reason why that walk rate should plummet that far unless he’s pressing to swing the bat and make an impact. That pressure is causing him to swing a lot and not make contact all that often, which is also Francoeur-esque. He’s swinging at both good and bad pitches, which in the majors is not good.

The reality for the Royals might be that Giavotella will never hit the way they thought he would in the major leagues. That’s a tough reality because if he can’t hit, he can’t play. There are other options. I’m a big fan of Irving Falu. I don’t understand the assumption that he can’t be anything more than a utility player, especially considering his play indicates otherwise (I know he’s a little older than most rookies but why should that matter if he can play). His numbers are just as good as Giavotella’s at the minor league level and much better in the majors. There are other options as well—Tony Abreu, Christian Colon. But it might be that the Royals end up with more of a revolving door at second base, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Many winning teams have at least one position that is filled in a patch-work way. But it would be nice if Giavotella can fulfill the hopes many Royals fans had for him.

This doesn’t mean that I’m giving up hope on Giavotella; I’m not. It just means that the bar’s thinning out, and I’m starting to shift my gaze from the prettiest girls in the room to the ones more likely to produce.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

(more…)

August 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Chris Getz (17) gets the force out on Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (not pictured) at second base and throws to first for a double play in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Getz was having his best year as a big leaguer in 2012, despite two previous trips to the disabled list during the season. His season ends with his batting average, slugging percentage and OPS all being career highs and, had he been healthy most of the year, would have likely been able to reach career highs in hits and doubles.

Instead, it’s cut short.

There hasn’t been a move to replace Getz on the roster yet, but all signs point to Johnny Giavotella replacing him. Giavotella was hitting .323/.404/.472 in Omaha. After the Royals announced that Getz would miss the rest of the year, Giavotella was pulled from Omaha’s lineup against Las Vegas. Earlier this season, Giavotella  spent a month with Kansas City and hit .217/.260/.261.

The Getz versus Giavotella debate has worn on all season, going back to spring training. Giavotella didn’t take advantage of the first opportunity to win the job and went to Omaha to continue to work on his defense. He was also working back from offseason hip surgery and as the months have gotten warmer, so has his bat. With Getz performing adequately at the plate and displaying good defense, the Royals hadn’t been compelled to make a change.

Since being drafted in the second round in 2008, Giavotella has drawn questions about his defense. Despite extensive work in Triple A, he’s probably only going to be average at his very best at the position. The Royals will accept that if he hits. Despite hitting everything in the minors, he hasn’t been able to translate it to major league success and the Royals have seemed timid about giving him an opportunity to sink or swim. If he hits like many scouts think he can, he’ll be a good offensive weapon in the lineup and should balance out any problems with the glove. If he doesn’t hit, the next man in line is Christian Colon, who was recently promoted to Omaha and got seven hits in his first 17 at bats, including a double and a homer. He recently fouled a ball that hit the ground and then hit him in the eye, so he’s currently on the DL.

I see it playing out with Giavotella getting the rest of this year to see if he can hit big league pitching. If not, we may see more of the Getz/Giavotella merry-go-round while Colon spends some time in Omaha waiting to step in (assuming the Royals don’t involve Giavotella or Colon in a deal this offseason).

Better times. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Betancourt was signed in the offseason to be a sort of utility player and a right-handed hitting option. The Royals said he’d only play a couple days a week to spell infielders, but after an injury to Chris Getz and with the Royals suspect of Johnny Giavotella‘s abilities, he started through most of June and July.

The Royals cited an unwillingness to accept his role, which had diminished with Chris Getz playing adequate baseball and left Betancourt on the bench more often. Nevermind that his WAR ranked him among the least valuable players in baseball.

That leaves the Royals with Chris Getz assuming the everyday second baseman job right now, and he’s running with it. He’s doing just what he needs to do, and that’s be okay. He’s hitting alright. He’s fielding alright. He’s not hurting anything. He’s the equivalent of oatmeal for breakfast. Sure you’d like the stack of pancakes, the bacon and eggs, but oatmeal, well, it’ll hold you over. My gut is to be upset about his playing time, but he’s effectively inert right now, and given the struggles of other players, Getz doesn’t deserve my complaints.

Now, it’s a waiting game to see when (if?) the Royals will call up Johnny Giavotella. Yes, he’s struggled in the majors so far, but the Royals haven’t committed much energy to finding out if their second round pick from 2008 can adjust and learn at the major league level. Maybe he never pans out, but what do they have to lose right now in the middle of August? I think that if they can give Betancourt TWO stints in Kansas City and can stick with Getz through the first mediocre 700 plate appearances of his Royals career, then they can at least let Giavotella have more than 260 to show that he might be able to handle the job.

Regardless, our best wishes to Betancourt. We’ll always remember the magic grand slam season of 2010, the sideways one-handed popup flubs and the statement “plus hands and plus hands“.

Freddie Patek was a fixture in the middle of the infield during some of the most successful days in Royals history. The diminutive shortstop later earned election to the Royals Hall of Fame and was our first guest on the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Thursday. He talked about his heyday with the Royals, playing the game the right way, playing for Whitey Herzog and Ewing Kauffman and overcoming the stigma of being a small player.

Then we talked with Storm Chaser’s outfielder David Lough as he lounged poolside on Omaha’s day off. He noted that he’s working on using his speed more this season, excited to be in the hunt for another Pacific Coast League championship. He then handed the phone off to his roommate, second baseman Johnny Giavotella, who talked about working back from hip surgery early in the year, his hot streak in July and the things he’s working on defensively. He also seemed to put out a challenge to his other roommate Anthony Seratelli for the home run lead in the apartment (Giavotella has 10, Seratelli has 16 this year).

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

This should be a fun show.

We’ll talk with Freddie Patek, a Royals Hall of Famer, three-time All-Star and key component to some of the best Royals teams in franchise history.

Sticking with the short middle infielder motif, we’ll also talk with Johnny Giavotella about his recovery from hip surgery in the offseason, his hot bat in July, and working his way back to the big leagues. Also, we’ll have Gio’s roommate, outfielder David Lough to talk about working through an organization that has such a crowded bunch of outfielders and a second run at the Pacific Coast League championship.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Hope springs eternal.  In the chest of all long suffering fans beats an optimistic heart, one that yearns for his or her team to succeed and looks forward to the day when they can celebrate the same championship they’ve watched others enjoy for years.  Occasionally, there will be substance behind the hope and evidence that this year could be different, this could be the year we finally break through.

As you know, this season was “Our Time” and many of us believed 2012 would mark a turning point toward respectability.  Many of the talented young players we’ve watched growing up in the best farm system in baseball were finally arriving in the major leagues and Dayton Moore’s plan was coming together.  If you’ll admit it, I bet you were thinking the Royals would play well this year.  Few of us believed they were playoff bound in 2012, but almost all of us were confident other teams would not be looking past KC this season.

Then something happened.  I’m not sure if any of us know exactly what happened, but something happened.  The Royals play in a weak division which allowed them to remain competitive with a mediocre record and this motivated us to hold onto hope.  But now, only the most die-hard fan still believes the Royals have a shot at the playoffs.  Oh yes, we all still root for them and cheer them on and sit on the edge of our seats shouting for another victory…  but we’ve become realists and we know we won’t be watching the boys in blue this October.  Again.

When did this happen?  When exactly did the Royals 2012 season go off the rails?  If could have been at any one of many twists and turns in the road, and each of us might point toward a different event that caused it.  Here are a few candidates for the prime pothole that caused the Royals train to jump the track:

Pick a Date:  Injuries – There have been so many devastating injuries that have impacted the Royals that I can’t select one date.  At the major league level, the Royals lost Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain for approximately the first half of the season.  Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria have undergone Tommy John surgery.  Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have been on-again and off-again with various injuries.  Other Royals have likely played hurt because the team couldn’t afford to lose another player.  Is it possible that one of these injuries could have cut the cord on the Royals’ season?

March 26:  Part of the excitement about 2012 surrounded the youth movement in KC.   The decision to leave Johnny Giavotella in Omaha and play a platoon of Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz probably wasn’t the key factor that derailed the Royals season, but I would say it was a telling sign of things to come and questionable decisions that would be made by the Royals brass.

Jonathan Broxton's April 11 meltdown is one of the candidates when looking for the reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April 11:  Broxton’s first meltdown, and it was a classic.  Two walks, two hit-by-pitches, two runs scored, Broxton’s first blown save of the year, and the A’s didn’t even need a hit.  This was the first real splash of cold water I experienced following an off-season and Spring filled with hope and expectation.

April 14:  Chris Perez’s Twitter rant and victory over the Royals following an onfield melee.  I believe Perez’s tweet somehow motivated the Indians and demotivated the Royals.  This was just the 3^rd loss in the 12 consecutive loss streak and we all discovered the Royals were apparently a fragile team.  I work with an Indian fan and wow is it annoying when he defends Chris Perez, aka one of the biggest jerks in professional sports.  Here’s what Perez said on Twitter on April 14:

@chrisperez54 Huge team win tonight; time for a sweep to tell the Royals it’s not “Our Time”, it’s#TribeTime. P.S. You hit us, we hit you. Period.

April 24:  The 12^th loss of the 12 game losing streak occurred on April 24.  Many fans will point to this streak and complain that the Royals season ended almost before it began.  I have a difficult time arguing against this rather valid point, but still, the Royals fought back to within 4 games by the halfway mark, so I don’t think the streak completely derailed the season, but it certainly threw a gigantic roadblock in the way.

Eric Hosmer's season long slump is another reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE)

May 16:  Hosmer was under the Mendoza line almost by the time the first week of the season ended.  But most of us thought it was just a rough patch and he would pull out of it by mid-April.  Then we thought he’d be ok by early May, and then we thought for sure by the end of May he’d be swinging the bat well.  We were wrong.  On May 16 in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, Hosmer walked to the plate 7 times and came away with zero hits, ending the game with a .174 average.  Yost took him out of the lineup the next two days.  By this time, we all knew Hosmer’s slump had become more than just a run of bad luck, and more importantly Ned Yost knew it too.  If any of your players goes through a prolonged slump, it negatively affects the team.  But if the team’s presumed star goes through a slump that so far has lasted for more than half the season, it’s extremely difficult for the team to overcome and could be a cause for that team’s playoff hopes to go off the rails.

June 30:  The Royals had climbed to within 4 games of .500 and were starting to open some eyes across the league.  Then without warning… THUD.  The worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins, took both games of a doubleheader from the Royals, and the team hasn’t sniffed .500 ever since.

July 2:  Robinson Cano omits Billy Butler from the home run derby.  I realize that this decision by the liar Cano has nothing to do with the Royals on-field performance, but it says everything about the respect we have across the league – none.  And occasionally, lack of respect can affect your psyche, which impacts your performance, etc., etc.

Which incident do you say was the cause of the Royals season to derail, or do you point to a different event, or a combination of events?  I suppose there are still many games to play during the long baseball season, and as they say, “it’s not over ‘till it’s over.”  But no matter what happens, I know “the Royals will get ‘em next year!”

They’ve made it apparent that Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Mijares and Jonathan Broxton are the key names available.

Now it’s a matter of turning those names into something of value. That’s the goal, right? Trade the veterans for other players, usually younger, and continue loading up during this rebuilding stretch.

But here’s where I’m worried. The Royals as an organization have shown that they can scout players and identify solid draft picks. They’ve loaded the farm system with talent and potential. They aren’t always good at evaluating the problems with players they currently have on the roster and I think it’s going to cloud their minds during the deadline.

Francoeur in a good moment. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

Jeff Francoeur is a great guy. He’s active within the community, takes rookies out to dinner, shows them how to conduct themselves after the game and he’s almost always got a smile on his face. Unfortunately, those kinds of things aren’t so important that they add anything to the score during the game. Leadership only goes so far until it has to be supported by performance. Last year, he might have hacked at some bad pitches but he was hitting the ball. Sometimes they were choppers but often, those hits turned into doubles. Bad habits can be overlooked when a player is going good. And in 2011, Francoeur was going good.

But players don’t change their ways usually and performance leaks catch up. In Francoeur’s case, he looks lost at the plate, swinging at bad pitches, taking good ones, and hasn’t produced much of anything.

That hurts his trade value severely. He already carries a stigma that his leadership can’t overcome and his contract is a burden as well.

Now the Royals have to try to get something for him.

Betancourt has the same kind of issues. The Royals will talk about how he has right-handed pop, but even in the last two years when he’s reached double digit homers, his slugging percentage was barely around .400. Combine that with a reputation for bad defense and the same poor pitch selection as Francoeur and there’s a player who’s tough to trade off for a prospect.

The Royals say both are on the trade block, but both could just as easily be on the waiver wire this time next month with their lack of performance. What teams are going to give up value for that? There’s little point to trading anything of significance for players who could end up on the scrap heap in a few weeks. Either they’ll be essentially free or they won’t be of use to a contending team.

Where the Royals are most deluding themselves, though, is with their pursuit of a return for Jonathan Broxton.

Yes, he has 23 saves in 26 attempts this year, but teams aren’t blind.

While Broxton used to be the behemoth setup man and closer for the Dodgers, regular overuse by Joe Torre led to injury and he hasn’t been good since 2009. Now and then he can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, but he’s not the dominant force he used to be. His strikeout rate is nearly half of his career rate and it wasn’t much better last season. He’s always walked around 3.5 batters per nine innings, but he’s also much more hittable since his struggles in LA.

The Royals tell teams they want a young starting pitcher who’s ready to be in the big leagues for him.

Newsflash: Every team wants that player. Dayton Moore knows of this principle. In January 2011, bloggers at the Digital Digest asked him how he can claim to look for on base percentage players but how he doesn’t end up signing players who have that scouting profile. His answer was that the market created that challenge – that other teams wanted those kinds of players and you had to “take what you can get“.

Now, nobody can blame Moore for trying to see if a team will give up a pitcher who’s close to becoming a mainstay in the rotation, so if it’s a calculated approach to snag a bit more value, great. If they can pull it off. At a point, though, they’ll have to take what they can get, and if that’s a diamond in the rough, so be it.

It smacks of the same kind of tunnel vision Allard Baird had when trying to trade Carlos Beltran. He made it clear to everyone that he wanted a third baseman and a catcher. Nevermind if there might have been a solid outfielder who could have turned into a star. It didn’t fit the positions he was fixated on. There are rumors that Robinson Cano could have been had for Beltran, but he wasn’t a third baseman, so no dice.

In this case, Moore has to approach it as if it’s a draft. In the draft, you don’t draft for need unless you know the player is going to produce immediately. That’s a rare occurrence. Draft the best talent and you’re better off. In this case, if there’s any talent and it’s not the stated requirement of “MLB-ready young starter” then the Royals need to jump on it.

Betancourt and Broxton are on one-year deals. The Royals get nothing if they ride them out for the rest of the year. Betancourt isn’t going to return much at all but he’ll get something, some fringe minor leaguer who might turn into something. That’s enough. Francoeur’s contract would have to be absorbed to move him and again he might not get much, but they have to do it. Broxton’s most likely to move, but not if the Royals hold out for that pitcher. They’ll either end up with something subpar, like a Vin Mazzaro, or they’ll end up with nothing.

They’re treating Broxton as if his 23/26 saves mean something. It’s not often that pitchers with a 1.402 WHIP are treated as hot commodities. Teams know the numbers. They’ve seen how often he puts a runner on to lead off the inning (40% of the time). They know he’s put the tying or lead run on base 16 different games in 31 games where he’d entered with the lead. Would any other GM want that for their closer? Nevermind that most of the contending teams have a closer already or options who are in the same class as Broxton.

Sooner or later, Broxton’s tendency to let runners on will catch up to him and teams don’t want it to be during a meaningful game. If they have to settle on some A-ball prospect, they have to make the trade.

Moving Francoeur and Betancourt have the added benefit that whatever you get for them almost doesn’t match the benefit of simply taking their combined .277 on base percentage out of the lineup (which is just the same as saying they make an out in 72.3% of their plate appearances) and injecting Wil Myers and Irving Falu or Johnny Giavotella (who’s hitting .402 this month and has a 21 game hitting streak for Omaha) into the lineup.

It’s time to recognize that some dead weight needs to be cut and some pieces need to be moved for whatever’s out there. The Royals have the bullpen reinforcements to absorb Mijares or Broxton leaving and Myers can’t be much worse than Francoeur at this point. I’d take the opportunity to go with a full youth movement and bring up Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery just to get what you can out of them. See what they can do. Let them learn at this level and see who rises to the challenge. Heck, start them in the bullpen even. Manage their appearances as best you can to build them up slowly the rest of the year. Try something a bit different – the current way isn’t working.

But that won’t happen. Dayton will sit on Broxton and say later that the right match didn’t materialize, when he was focused on what he had to have and not what he could have. Frenchy’s leadership will be valued over his performance and Betancourt – well I really don’t understand Moore’s obsession with Betancourt. Moore has acquired him twice – on purpose – and nobody’s going to confuse Betancourt for a good baseball player. There’s still time for Falu or Giavotella to learn to become one.

It’s a tough game, and only one team is happy at the end of the year, but the Royals have to position themselves better just to avoid being the most miserable. It’s time to make some moves. Maybe it’s just being impatient, maybe it’s frustration. Yeah, the pitching is a problem and the Royals have to address it this offseason (and get something at the deadline if they can), but that doesn’t mean they can’t fix the other problems on the roster and in their approach to building it.

After watching Iowa take the lead in the bottom of the 8th inning, Johnny Giavotella tied the game back up with a solo homerun in the top of the 9th inning.

The late scoring for the Cubs negated the solid spot start by Roman Colon. He allowed one run on two hits over five innings.

Chris Getz and Lorenzo Cain continued their rehab with the Storm Chasers. Getz led off and went 0-for-5 while playing nine innings at second base. Cain went 2-for-5 while playing nine innings in centerfield.

NW Arkansas lost to Corpus Christi, 3-0. The Naturals only had one hit prior to the 9th inning (a one out Yem Prades single in the 6th inning) against Hooks starter Ross Seaton. They finished with three hits total (from the top three in the order).

Bryan Paukovits tossed 3.1 scoreless innings of relief and struck out seven.

Manny Pina continued his rehab assignment and caught all nine innings (he went 0-for-3).

Blue Rocks reliever Sam Runion

Wilmington defeated Lynchburg 6-5 in ten innings on getaway day. Lane Adams hit his second homerun of the game in the top of the 10th inning. That was the Blue Rocks fourth solo homerun of the game.

The Blue Rocks collected 12 hits and five hitters had multi-hit games.

Sam Runion picked up the win with two scoreless innings of relief.

Kane County lost their home series to Quad Cities with a 6-1 loss. The Cougars now head back out on the road for a short three-game series in Wisconsin.

The Cougars collected just six hits, but only went 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position. The lack of offense made a loser of Kellen Moen, who allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits over six innings. He struck out five.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-3 with a walk, a double, and a run scored in Burlington’s 5-2 win over Bristol. The story of the game was the start by 2012 draft pick Colin Rodgers, who tossed six hitless inning. He struck out three and the only baserunner came via a hit batter in the second inning.

Last week on Twitter I was challenged to write 7,500 words on Yuniesky Betancourt and why he isn’t the best option for the Royals to be playing second base. I’m sure I could come up with a few descriptive things to say about Betancourt, and I’m sure if pressed into action, I could come up with 7,500 on why he shouldn’t be on the Royals roster. I’m sure of it. But there’s little reason to go there now, that horse has been beaten dead for a while.

The first acquisition of Betancourt via trade was at least justifiable from the standpoint of there not being any other shortstop in the system capable of playing the position, and there was at least some buy low characteristics of the deal. In the end, it wouldn’t prove to be a complete disaster because at the very least Betancourt’s ability to stay healthy allowed the Royals to buy time to find his replacement.

The second acquisition last offseason made little-to-no-sense given his history as a below-average defensive shortstop, his history with the Royals as a negative-2.1fWAR(!) in 2009* and 0.9 fWAR in 2010, and the Royals really already had someone on the roster capable of doing what he does in Johnny Giavotella. Oh, that, and he creates a whole lot of outs offensively.

*Admittedly part of that season was with Seattle

Sure the fans were told that Betancourt was only being acquired to be a backup (which was a laughable argument) and that good backups cost money, especially ones that were coming off a year they were starters. The Betancourt signing was simply a move to create depth on the major league roster.

Flash forward to today and because of the injury to Chris Getz, Betancourt has supplanted Johnny Giavotella as the normal second baseman. The problem with Betancourt receiving most of the playing time isn’t so much that he’s actually playing, it’s that he’s getting the majority of his plate appearances by batting second in the order. No seriously.

We know enough now through lineup studies that the batting order holds less significance than we originally thought in terms of where guys bat, but the one caveat to that is that at the very least, batters at the top of the order have to make less outs than players at the bottom, because they will bat the most often. It’s pretty simple.

Betancourt will enter tomorrow night’s game with a .309 OBP on the season, and a career on-base percentage of .292.

Two. Ninety. Two.

No matter what you think a No.2 hitter looks like, or having one that can do all the “little things”, there is no hitter in baseball that can make up for having a .292 on-base percentage and be valuable batting second. It just doesn’t happen.

The subject of Betancourt’s playing time, or even his roster spot, has probably been hashed around enough at this point that there’s probably little need to go further than that. Any argument to Betancourt’s viability can immediately be countered with “.292”, and the argument would be over.

That wasn’t quite 7,500 words, but I think the point still remains: Betancourt’s playing time should still be strictly as a backup, if at all, if he can’t avoid making so many outs.

The Good

Well, the bullpen. And the bullpen. Have I mentioned the bullpen?

The Royals bullpen has thrown the most innings in all of baseball this year and has the sixth best ERA. That’s doin’ somethin’.

Led by Tim Collins, one of the strengths heading into the year has really been just that. The worry of course is how long they can keep it up.

At 225 innings through the team’s first 58 games, it’s hard to imagine the group either a) staying effective for a full season or b) not having multiple guys breakdown with injuries. The starting rotation was known to be the weak link of the roster to start the season, but I don’t think there’s anyone that could have foreseen this bad a performance, and it’s putting a lot of pressure on the bullpen to log so many innings.

If the group could keep up this production for a full season, given the workload, it would be nothing short of remarkable. Though, as good as the bullpen has been, I think everyone wishes they’d been called upon a little (a lot) less.

The Bad

While it would be nice to write about a 12 for 18, 3 homeruns, 3 doubles week for Alex Gordon, hereby officially busting him out of his year long no-power funk, I am not and the offense continues to struggle. What was thought to be one of the major strengths of this team coming into the season has proven, yet again, to be a major annoyance as there’s been no consistency, and the same hack-away style at the plate and give-away style on the bases approach is still being implemented.

The numbers have been beaten to death at this point but they always bear repeating: the Royals are 7^th in the American League in batting average (.258), 11^th in on-base percentage (.314), 12^th in wOBA (.309), and 13^th in runs (224). That 13^th place ranking in runs, mind you, is only ahead of the Oakland A’s, who consistently get made fun of for how bad they are offensively.

So what’s to blame? At this point in the season it’s too late to continue to fall back on the lack of production from Gordon or Eric Hosmer, or the injuries to Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain. Remember, there were doubts a year ago of Cain’s ability to hit at the major league level, and there have always been doubts of his being able to stay healthy. That isn’t to say giving him the starting centerfield position was a bad idea – in many ways it was the right call – there just should have been a better option to replace him than Jarrod Dyson if the need arose. Which is was almost assuredly going to happen.

Even though the struggles of the two more potent bats in the lineup hurt, that isn’t necessarily the reason to the overall production of the lineup being so bad. The fundamental flaw of the Ned Yost era – or, in fairness, baseball in general – is the complete disregard for offensive outs and the willingness to give them away without contention.

This isn’t merely from a bunting perspective, which has been taken apart on this site as well as many others, but from a base running point of view where “aggressive base running” leads to far more harm than good. The Royals, metrically speaking, rank as the third-worst base running team in the American League, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a sign of that turning around, because the same mistakes keep happening.

Suffice it to say, if there’s a sarcastic hashtag named for you on Twitter (heh), there’s something you’re not doing right.

The Upcoming

It doesn’t get any easier this week. Last week I wrote that the Royals really had a chance to make some noise in the AL Central with their upcoming June schedule. That noise turned to a faint whimper as a 1-win, 5-loss stretch against Minnesota and Pittsburgh has ruined any good vibes there was entering the month. A very #Royaling feat indeed.

This week, it’s three at home against Milwaukee and three on the road against St. Louis. Oof.

Making things more interesting is a Zack Greinke v Luis Mendoza matchup tomorrow night that, on paper, looks more like playing MLB The Show 12 on the beginner level against a Triple-A call-up.

What will be fun to see is the over-reaction of fans to the “traitor” Greinke, and then the subsequent hyperbole if he does well – “Hey, he could have been doing that here, quitter!” – or if he does poorly – “See, he can’t handle the pressure, he’s too weak!” or “See, he’s not a true ace!” Either way, it should be interesting, and entirely predictable.

Before this week you could have made the argument that a six game stretch against the National League would be a huge benefit to the Royals, given how well the American League teams usually do during Interleague play. Now, given the pretty thorough dismantling at the hands of the Pirates, there are some doubts.

One thing Royals fans will see this week is stars (much like they did with Andrew McCutchen) and the impact those stars have on teams. It’s long been my contention that stars win championships, not “well rounded” players, because those great players can make up for the deficiencies of a couple average players. The Brewers have Greinke, and Ryan Braun; the Cardinals have Carlos Beltran (ugh), and whatever category you’d like to put Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in. The Royals are still trying to find theirs.

Even though stars don’t make the complete difference in baseball, they make a huge difference. And as long as the Royals are still searching for one, it’s going to make things a lot harder, and 1-5 stretches harder to avoid.

In our third episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we had the pleasure to speak with legendary groundskeeper George Toma. Toma shared stories of working the grounds at Municipal Stadium when the A’s were in Kansas City, working with Charlie Finley and an incident with monkeys let loose in the ballpark. No, really.

We also got to talk with John Sadak (@johnsadak) the voice of the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sadak discussed the progress of Jason Adam, Yordano Ventura, Cheslor Cuthbert and gave us his insight into the Royals High A minor league affiliate.

This episode also featured a rant from Troy Olsen regarding the reaction to the Will Smith start on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Chris Kamler, of course, egged him on. We also covered the plight of Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer‘s continuing slump and other Royals-related topics.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Bruce Chen will look to snap the Royals two-game losing streak in the series opener at Baltimore. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

When these teams met last Wednesday and Thursday at Kauffman Stadium, it was KC who was the hotter team having gone 4-1 on a roadtrip on the southside of Chicago and Arlington. Baltimore has been one of the early surprises of the season leading the AL East.

In the quick two-game series, Kansas City jumped out to the lead with the end result being Baltimore coming back late to earn the sweep. Game one went 15-innings which was highlighted in many Royals fans minds of Jonathan Broxton blowing his second save of the season and Nate Adcock surrendering a 15^th inning bomb to Adam Jones in the 4-3 Orioles win.

Game two again KC built an early lead with Humberto Quintero and Johnny Giavotella driving in the runs putting the Royals up 3-0 in the third. The O’s got two back in the next inning with Jones again hitting a homer this time of the two-run variety. Luke Hochevar who pitched well ran into trouble in the seventh inning after back-to-back singles (highlighted by Jarrod Dyson misplaying what should’ve been only a single).

J.J. Hardy who tied the game for Balitmore in game one, again came up with the big hit putting the birds in front for good. Aaron Crow who has been good in relief was unable to help Hochevar out walking Lois Esposito and Xavier Avery back-to-back loading the bases which culminated with Hardy’s hit.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 6:05 pm – Bruce Chen (3-4, 4.17) v. Jason Hammel (5-1, 3.12)
- Chen, enters this start having won his last three starts beating the Red Sox, at Rangers and Diamondbacks. He’s reached the seventh inning in each of these starts and averaging five strikeouts and 1.3 walks in these starts. Another thing helping is KC is giving Bruce run support scoring 4.6 runs compared to just an average of two runs in his first six starts.
- Hammel, Has been great so far this season for the AL East leaders starting 5-1 with two no-decisions. He’s 2-0 with a ND in his last three starts beating Boston and Washington while not figuring into the loss against the Yankees. In his last two starts he went five and 5 1/3 innings allowing 6.5 hits in his last two starts and 4.5 runs.
Saturday, 3:05 pm – Felipe Paulino (2-1, 1.42) v. Wei-Yin Chen (4-1, 3.35)
- Paulino, So far in three of his four starts in 2012 he’s not allowed a run, the game he did at Chicago he did suffer his lone loss. Felipe went seven innings last week against Baltimore but the Royals bullpen was unable to hold onto the lead. In four starts Paulino is averaging seven strikeouts which includes nine against the O’s last Wednesday and eight in the Bronx on Monday.
- Chen, Suffered his first defeat at Washington 9-3 in his last start for the rookie out of Taiwan. The six-runs he allowed were a season high and nearly a third of the 22 runs allowed this season. He’s been getting 4.6 runs of support in each start.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.61) v. TBD
- Hochevar, Sure I and Royals fans have had fun at the former number one pick expense but let’s give him credit as of late. In Luke’s last three starts he’s made it into the seventh inning and seen his ERA go from an even nine to its current 6.61 form. Also encouraging has been his strikeout numbers in the last three starts increasing with 5, 6 and 8 in those games.
- TBD, For now we’ll have to wait and see who Buck Showalter goes to if that is activating someone from the DL or calling up someone from the minors.

May 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielders

I have an office mate; it’s like a roommate only if we’re hanging socks on the door we’re probably getting fired. He’s a smart guy. He’s a former college baseball player, and he’s a big Royals fan. We were recently wrapping up the end of the spring semester by talking about a Royals game from a while ago. He hadn’t seen it due to a night class he teaches, and I informed him that he missed a hell-of-a game.

It’s the one the Royals almost blew in the ninth in the first Yankees series. Jonathan Broxton was shaking like a 300-pound leaf, and consequently I was shaking like a slightly smaller leaf. He allowed two runners immediately and Mike Moustakas and Chris Getz had to make incredible plays to get the Royals out of Broxton’s jam. It was weird to look at a closer and immediately think that he looked nervous. Maybe he wasn’t. Maybe I was projecting my nerves onto him.

But either way, I was relaying all this to my office mate, and he brought up an interesting point. He started talking about a winning culture—one of those ambiguous phrases that analysts love to talk about alongside things like “grit” and “heart.” Of course he has a heart. They all have hearts or they wouldn’t be living … duh.

I thought back to the game and remembered seeing guys like Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez. In the moments during which Broxton looked very much like a young pitcher, these guys looked like they might be taking cuts in the corporate challenge—as pressure packed as that is. It never looked forced with them, as if the outcome of the game wasn’t even in their hands, like fate was in control. They were going to take their swings and something was going to happen, but at the end of the day they were multi-millionaires and get laid whenever they want. So, no big whup.

Since that conversation with my friend, I’ve been thinking about that game and a winning culture because so much of what people mark as a deficiency of the Royals is the lack of a “winning culture.” I think a winning culture does exist, but I can’t exactly define it. I think if you asked most ball players, they would agree, but I’m guessing they’d have trouble coming up with a solid definition as well. What is a winning culture? What does it look like? What does it take to get one? Why don’t the Royals have one? Or do they and it’s just not resulting in actual wins?

I don’t necessarily have answers to these questions. In fact, I’d like you to answer them in the comments section so I can learn something. I do believe though that teams with a winning culture look like the Yankees looked that night. They didn’t win, but I think teams with a winning culture present an ethos that says We’re going to win, and I’m more concerned with this blonde in the second row than my potential inability to come through in this clutch moment. It doesn’t enter the mind of winners that they may fail. They know that they may fail, on some level, but it doesn’t register at that moment. It doesn’t drive their play in any way.

As I stated above, I definitely don’t have all the answers. I do think that the Royals don’t quite have what I would consider a winning culture. Part of that is their youth. I watched Johnny Giavotella hitting with a man on second and the other day and on a 3-2 fastball WAY out of the strike zone he whiffed completely. I remember thinking He’s trying to do too much to impress Ned and GMDM. That’s understandable. He wants to stay in the majors and get playing time. Right now, too many Royals are concerned with avoiding failure—Giavotella, Jarrod Dyson, many starting pitchers—for the group to have the type of winning culture that a team like the Yankees has. Time and some increased confidence from success should remedy that.

This isn’t really an article to provide answers but ask questions. So, let’s hear what you think about a winning culture in baseball. That’s what I really want. This is my call for answers. How does a team—say a young, nearly rebuilt team, from the Midwest—build a winning culture? What distinguishes a team with a winning culture from a team with a losing culture? Let me know in comments AND e-mail Dayton Moore and Ned Yost. They’d probably like to know.

With my ideal lineup the Royals I feel would put up more runs than they currently do . Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Wednesday night against the Red Sox we saw a line-up that had everyone a buzzed given how it looked after it was publically revealed. Fans seemed to be surprised at Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas getting midweek rest and Billy Butler time at first. Results being what they are that lineup is 1-0 this season.

With the off day taking place I started thinking about what I’d do if given the chance to set a lineup. Here is my ideal lineup.

1. Jarrod Dyson, CF – Currently hitting .283 overall at the moment, in the 13 games he’s played in KC he’s led off 12 of them. In those 12-games he is hitting .286, 2-of-3 on the base paths with a .662 OPS and 17 total bases. His speed when he reaches has given the opposition fits moving around on the bases which flustered Matt Albers.

2. Johnny Giavotella, 2B – Here is the guy I’d like to hit second even though I also like Alex Gordon in this spot. The numbers I’m drawing upon are from 2011 and aren’t that glossy because Ned only hit Johnny second five times. Still he was 6-of-21 for a .286 average with a homerun, three doubles and a triple. Johnny just seems to make something happen each at-bat to get on base.

3. Billy Butler, DH – Country Breakfast has batted in this spot 17 of 30 games played during the 2012 season the difference is his batting average hitting third is .254 to as opposed to .353. In this spot he’s hit four HR’s with 14 RBIs compared to two and 9 when batting fourth. Interesting to note Billy has been plunked three times when batting in this spot.

4. Eric Hosmer, 1B – This is in good faith as I need not remind anyone that Hos hasn’t hit at all this season thus far. Nonetheless don’t let what’s happened the first 30 games make you think Hosmer won’t hit his projected numbers.

5. Mike Moustakas, 3B – The fifth spot really gave me pause because it’s a spot that I liked Alex or Moose at over Frenchy. To me in I’ve liked the small sample size I went with the long-term thought here of Moustakas. It was only one game that we saw Mike hit fifth but and he went 1-for3 this spot is where I’d like him to be while wearing a Royals uniform.

6. Alex Gordon, LF – Gordon in the sixth spot? With a deep lineup, Gordo just got pushed down in my lineup but could easily get flopped with Moose depending on the match-up.

7. Jeff Francoeur, RF –Francoeur hitting seventh is something most actually want to see with how slow he’s started. Like Gordon, Francoeur hasn’t hit in this spot since 2010 and actually had success. In 165 plate appearances he belted six HR’s plus driving in 30.

8. Brayan Pena/Humberto Quintero, C – I’d rather Salvador Perez here but nothing we can do about that  until he and Manny Pina come back. If we could combine Pena’s bat with Quintero defense I’d take that.

9. Alcides Escobar, SS – Has better numbers hitting eighth than in the ninth spot but I really like him here with the ability to turn over the lineup. While only hitting .260 in 77 plate appearances he does have 20 hits. In the ninth position is where 8 of his 10 doubles are in addition to his lone homer and triple. Batting ninth has been good for Esky’s as 10 of his 12 extra base hits have come in this spot. So far in 2012 his slugging percentage risen up to .410 from last season’s .343 average.

This arrangement leaves Chris Getz, Irving Falu, and Mitch Maier plus whatever catcher who isn’t playing on the bench. The Royals are averaging 3.9 runs but let’s make that four by rounding up and I think that this lineup could surpass that.

Stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed and follow Mike Vamosi on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

In the inaugural episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we talked with former Kansas City Athletic Mike Hershberger about his time in Kansas City, his experiences with Charlie Finley, Reggie Jackson and the infamous goat. Back in his day, he was a defensive specialist and he talked about the skills he brought to the field.

We also got to talk to Clint Robinson before Omaha’s game in Sacramento. We wanted to know about Clint’s approach with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler ahead of him in Kansas City, as well as his thoughts on the promotions of Irving Falu and Johnny Giavotella. He also talked about a certain prank they’ve pulled a few times, but wouldn’t divulge who the key conspirator was. Clint is hitting well again in the minors as he waits for a spot in Kansas City.

We wrapped up by talking about the middle infield situation and the logjam of second basemen in Kansas City, as well as what might happen with Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez.

Also congratulations to our trivia winners – we gave away three packages to a Kansas City T-Bones game. Listen in next week at 6 p.m. on Thursday on ESPN 1510 AM for a chance to win.

Our guest next week will be Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus (you can hear him talk with us from last November in the meantime) and Howard Rodney “Doc” Edwards, a Kansas City A from 1963 to 1965. He now coaches for the San Angelo Colts in United League Baseball, an indepedent league in Texas.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also followKings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Tonight marks the start of an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Mike Hershberger, a former outfielder for the Kansas City A’s during their final years before leaving KC for Oakland. Hershberger carved out a nice career, playing in 11 major league seasons for three teams as a well-regarded defensive player who patrolled all three outfield positions and had one of the stronger arms in the league.

Our second guest will be Lee Warren of Yahoo Sports. If you’re a regular listener of the Royalman Report, you’ll know that we like any opportunity we can get to talk with Lee as he covers the Omaha Storm Chasers. They’re having a great follow up season in 2012 after winning the Pacific Coast League title in 2011. You can check out past discussions with Lee Warren on the Royalman Report here (from June 26, 2011) and here (August 28, 2011).

Update: The Storm Chasers have promised us the opportunity to talk with one of their players before their game in Sacramento, which  will pre-empt Lee Warren’s appearance. 

Along with that, we’ll talk a look at the Royals of today as they come out of a successful homestand.

We’d love to have you listening, and we plan on a giveaway to kick off the show’s run, so you don’t want to miss that.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

If Marlon Byrd was half a foot to his left or if Cody Ross took a split second longer to secure the ball, the Red Sox very well may have won on Wednesday night.

Instead, both were involved in misplays that led to three Royals runs in the first inning off of nemesis Jon Lester with two outs. Jarrod Dyson grounded out and Alex Gordon struck out against Lester, who owned a 1.30 ERA in seven career starts against Kansas City, including the last no-hitter against the Royals.

Then the Royals got Billy Butler on base with a walk. Jeff Francoeur singled. Johnny Giavotella, recalled Wednesday afternoon from Omaha, hit a hard tailing line drive to Byrd in center, but the ball went off his glove and bounced away from him. Butler scored and Francoeur went to third.

Brayan Pena beats the tag as he heads back to second on a strange double in the first inning. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Brayan Pena doubled deep to left and Ross seemed to have caught the ball at first, but as he continued his stride, it came loose, left his glove, hit the left-field wall before he pulled it back in. The umpires ruled that he hadn’t secured the ball completely so when it hit the screen over the scoreboard on the wall, Butler and Giavotella had scored and Pena scurried back to second for a double.

The Royals left the first with a 3-0 lead and racked up 38 pitches.

Bruce Chen was solid in 6.2 innings, finding trouble in the top of the third when he loaded the bases but snuck a fastball past David Ortiz for the second out. Adrian Gonzalez doubled into the gap to clear the bases and tie the score, but they didn’t threaten Chen any other time.

The Royals added a run on an Alcides Escobar double that scored Irving Falu and Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton held the 4-3 lead.

The breaks went their way for a change, both at bat and in the field. A hard liner by Ortiz was right at Escobar. After Broxton gave up a single to Ross and walked Jarod Saltalamacchia, Byrd laid down a bunt to put the lead run in scoring position. Alex Gordon was positioned nearly perfectly to make a sliding catch of a Ryan Sweeney line drive, popped up and threw home to keep pinch runner Darnell McDonald at third. Broxton induced a Mike Aviles ground out to shut the door.

This is the kind of game the Royals would typically lose (and without Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in the lineup too), but they caught a little luck. The result gives them a winning homestand, a breath of fresh air after their 0-fer to start the season. Winning two out of four games against the Yankees and taking the Red Sox series could start some positive momentum as the Royals head back on the road with a series against the White Sox starting on Friday.

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Speculation spread throughout the Royals online fanbase. Was Giavotella being traded? Was Chris Getz? Would there be a package deal in place?

Johnny Giavotella has returned to Kansas City. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The craze is understandable. Usually a player isn’t pulled just to get promoted. When a trade is agreed upon, they come out because they aren’t that team’s player anymore. The Royals, as is typical, weren’t saying anything and nothing was leaking out.

This morning, the speculation continued until Dayton Moore went on 610 Sports to talk with Bob Fescoe. He said that “we hope to make a move to get [Giavotella] on the club.” It was just a matter of crossing some T’s and dotting some I’s he said. Again, that suggested a trade may be brewing, as they finalized a deal. More speculation popped up as various prospect packages were brought up.

As it turns out all the speculation was for nothing, as the Royals still have Chris Getz, they now have Johnny Giavotella and Jonathan Sanchez is on the 15 day disabled list to make room. Sanchez has what is being called “bicep tendinitis” though it could just as easily be an excuse to get him a break and figure out how to get him to at least approach improvement.

The day continued with comments that Giavotella would give the Royals another right-handed bat. In the pregame comments, Ned Yost said that Getz will play against right-handed pitching and Giavotella would hit against “some lefties“.

From the sounds of it, it seems that Giavotella may be struggling to find playing time in a platoon situation.

I’ll gladly eat some crow about Chris Getz. I’m not a fan. I don’t think he can sustain the .288/.338/.424 line he’s got right now. He’s played well beyond my expectations and I can’t say anything bad about his hitting to this point in the season. Players have a way of migrating back to what their standard level of production is but for now, I’ll enjoy a productive Getz. By no means will I say that Getz doesn’t deserve to play right now, but the potential usage of Giavotella speaks volumes about how the organization views him.

This afternoon on What’s Wright with Nick Wright, Mark Carman suggested that if the Royals saw Giavotella as a blue chipper in the mold of Eric Hosmer, wouldn’t they have him sort it out in the majors?

To me, that’s a good question.

I think Giavotella can be an everyday second baseman. He’s hit at every level in the minors and has more offensive upside than Getz. He entered spring training as the likely second baseman but struggled and lost the job. I don’t think the Royals view him that way anymore, or if they do, their confidence is shaken. The problem with the potential arrangement is that they learn little about if he can turn into that kind of player. What happens when Yuniesky Betancourt comes off the DL? Irving Falu probably goes back to Omaha, but what about Giavotella? He’ll have to fend off both Yuni and Getz for playing time. I could see a cycle develop where the Royals say they’ll play Giavotella when they think he can hit everyday, but he still doesn’t get into the lineup more than two or three times a week to show that he can hit.

I’m of the school of thought that a player can’t learn much more once they’ve hit their peak at a level. With a .331/.408/.504 line in Omaha in 2012 after a .338/.390/.481 line in 2011, Giavotella has nothing else to prove in Triple A other than his defense, which is said to have improved. Even if his fielding has stayed at the same proficiency, if he can hit, his bat will even out his defensive lapses. One month in Omaha isn’t going to be enough to improve him to the point where he’s a Gold Glover, but it can show that he could be good enough to get by.

The Royals don’t learn anything about him by only hitting him eight times a week. They don’t learn anything by giving him a cameo for another week and a half while Betancourt recovers from his ankle injury.

It’s a difficult spot because Getz is playing well and if you can get good offensive performance from him, you should ride it as long as it lasts before he turns back into a 67 OPS+ player. But Giavotella should see more time than just against “some lefties”. The Royals need to know what they have in him, or they’ll be in a spot where they wait too long and find they have to rely on someone who they discover can’t do the job. Call it the Kila Ka’aihue Conundrum.

But Gio is back and he’ll play tonight, at least. Perhaps the Royals will have one of those good problems going and find themselves with two hot-hitting second basemen.

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Before the season began, I heard news of the Royals signing an overrated shortstop with no on-base skills, sub-par defense, and just enough pop to make people interested. He was meant to be the utility infielder, and apparently an incredible one because they paid him $2 million. Here was his career slash line roughly: 269/.293/.392.

Of course, that guy was and, perhaps unfortunately, still is Yuniesky Betancourt. I cringed when I saw those numbers. I cringed when I thought back to his time as the Royals every day shortstop when he played defense within an invisible barrier the dimensions of a porta-John. It was bad; there was nothing good about it, and anyone who believes otherwise knows nothing about anything.

That said, Yuni is on fire right now, and I can’t help but appreciate his performance, acknowledge it for what it almost certainly is (a hot streak), and wonder why it’s happening.

First off, those of us who rightly criticized the signing of Yuni should, at the very least, tip our caps to his play so far. He’s been much, much better than I thought he would be and one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing early season. That doesn’t make his signing good. I’m still 90% sure this signing will prove pretty ridiculous at $2 million, but for now, he’s playing well—except for the baserunning error that may have cost them a game, BAD YUNI! I know the sample size is small, and I’m not claiming that this is the signal of a resurgence. I’m just applauding a man for a good month of baseball.

And please don’t call it a fluke. I hate that word. We can’t say that when a player plays poorly it’s his fault, and then when he plays well it’s a “fluke.” It’s not a fluke. If we’re going to believe players have control over the game in certain times, we should probably assume they do all the time—for the basis of analysis anyway. It’s not a fluke; it’s a hot streak. There’s a very important difference. Yuni is producing because he’s actually playing well, something even he can muster from time to time. To call it a fluke is to imply it’s out of his hands. It isn’t. He is the one hitting the ball well, and he’s the one playing good defense. That may very well change soon, but when it does it will be his fault, just like when he’s playing well it is he who deserves the credit.

But why is he playing well? I really didn’t expect it. I was angry when the Royals sent Johnny Giavotella to AAA and very confident that second base would be a circus act until he was recalled. It’s been anything but, and Yuni’s been the biggest part of that. Right now he’s hitting .324/.375/.459. His walk rate is more than double what it was last season. It’s not great at 7.5 percent, but it’s still much better than usual. His line drive rate is 26.5 percent, a career high so far. He’s also swinging at fewer pitches than in the last two years (49 percent down from 57.4 percent last season).

We saw how bad Yuni was as a shortstop defensively, but for once, the company line about his ability at second base doesn’t appear to be complete B.S. He does look much better at second than at short. He looks more natural—played there a lot in Cuba, I know. Playing second seems to disguise his lack of range, and he looks very comfortable around the bag. Yuni was a below average shortstop, but just from the eye test, it looks like he might be a slightly above average second baseman.

He can probably even keep the strong defensive play going. That said, I do not believe we’re seeing the breakout of Yuniesky Betancourt at the plate. He still swings at too many bad pitches, and at this point is fortunate to be connecting with them—connecting with 89 percent of pitches outside the zone. Ultimately, he is what he is at the plate—a free-swinging, low batting average, slight pop, low on-base guy. That probably won’t change. But for now, I can appreciate the hot streak and hope that it continues. This is baseball. Players have had streaks that lasted as long as a season. Maybe Yuni can keep the approach at the plate he has now, keep the defense tight, and help this team win games for the $2 million they gave him when no one else would. I won’t count on Yuni playing this well, but I’ll sure as hell enjoy it.

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Better duck your head when Jonathan Broxton is pitching. He might hit you to force in the winning run. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

It may surprise you to learn what I am most aggravated about after the first few series of this young season.  It’s not the losses, although that is beginning to wear on me somewhat.  Not the new broadcast team.  Not the smug looks on the Indians’ faces after they stole three straight wins in Kansas City and beat us again in Cleveland last night.  Not Broxton’s 12th inning meltdown consisting of 2 walks and 2 HBPs in 2/3 of an inning in Oakland that started the whole death spiral, not the mighty Hosmer reduced to weakly flailing at pitches two feet out of the strike zone, not the injuries that have robbed us of our talented young starting players, not the “first time in 30 years triple play,” and not even the site of the Yunibomber jogging out to second base night after night.  (Although I have to admit, seeing Yuni in a Royals’ uniform does push me perilously close to the edge.)  The way the team has played, the poor coaching, the epic baserunning blunders and defensive lapses are all causes of our seething frustration and anger.  But none of these things are what have me most perturbed.  The thing that aggravates me most right now, is the fans.

Now I realize it’s Royals fans who keep this web site up and running, so I need to watch my words carefully.  And please note that I am one of you – as hard core and blue blooded as they come.  I also realize that the serious fans who read this site probably haven’t fallen prey to the issues I want to discuss, so there is no reason for anyone here to take my comments personally.   But for the rest of the Royals’ fans that jumped on the bandwagon this Spring because it was a trendy thing to do the past few months – I have a few issues I’d like to get off my chest about you.

Rex Hudler has taken the brunt of Royal fan angst this year. Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

First of all, I really don’t get all the vitriol over Rex Hudler.  (Yes, vitriol is a real word – look it up.)  And I don’t understand why so many people want to connect Rex to the loss of Frank White from the booth, who let’s face it, is not the greatest broadcaster ever.  (Yes, I said it, because it’s true.)  Now don’t misunderstand me – If I was picking an all-time MLB team, Frank is my second baseman, no doubt.  I’d take him before Joe Morgan, before Ryne Sandberg, and certainly before Roberto Alomar and all of his excess spit.  Meeting Frank in a hotel lobby when I was 17-years-old and speaking one-on-one with him for 15 minutes is possibly the sports highlight of my life next to watching Darryl Motley squeeze the final out of Game 7 in 1985.

But really folks, whining about losing Frank from the broadcast team is the same as saying you’re upset that Denny Matthews, possibly the greatest radio man in the history of sports, is not permitted to pitch for the Royals.  Yes Frank “tells it like it is”, yes he is a beloved and treasured Kansas City icon, but he’s about as uncomfortable behind a microphone as Jeff Montgomery.  (Oops!  Did I just say that?)  Playing baseball and broadcasting – it’s two completely different skill sets.  Doing one of them well shouldn’t give you an automatic license to do the other.

And all the grumbling about Rex Hudler is really just complaining for complaining sake in my opinion.  I think everyone is just piling on because they’re frustrated and they need someplace to point their rage.  I’m absolutely certain that the majority of people who are griping about Rex are only doing so because they’ve heard everyone else do it and they’re jumping on the “We hate Hudler” bandwagon because all the cool kids are doing it.

And what is the main complaint about Hudler anyway?  “He’s too positive.”  Sheesh.  Is that really something to complain about?  Change is always difficult and listening to a different voice on TV after all these years is no different, it’s something we all need to get accustomed to.  I think it’s only fair to give Hudler a chance to find his voice rather than bust his chops before the man even has an opportunity to get his feet on the ground and learn the players and Royals’ history.   I’m not necessarily saying he’s a great broadcaster either.  But, I am saying we need to back off and give the man a break.

I also have a beef with the Royals fans who’ve already given up.  They’re complaining about “Our Time”, blaming Dayton Moore for fooling us into thinking the Royals were going to win this year, announcing they aren’t going to watch another game or spend another dollar on tickets until we field a winner, etc., etc.  Bunch of spoiled rotten babies.  Do you know how long the Cubs fans have waited to field a winner?  About a thousand years.  And how many Cubs fans are there in the world?  About a million jillion – more than all the BBQ ribs eaten in Kansas City since the dawn of time.   How many of these fans have given up and forsaken their team?  Almost none of them.  I’ve never ever heard of a Cubs fan giving up.  Take a lesson from the Northsiders of Chicago and those who proudly wear their old school “C” caps all around the world, put on your big boy pants and suck it up.

Baseball is a business that requires millions upon millions of dollars, and a substantial amount of luck and good timing to be successful.  (The less money you have, the more luck and good timing you need.)  The small market Royals must be smarter, more efficient, more strategic than almost any other team in order to have even a speck of a chance at winning.  Even the slightest mistake in drafting, or a bad contract, or injuries, etc., could set the team back for years.

Count your blessings that little ole Kansas City even has a major league team and that it wasn’t contracted a few years ago.  It almost happened, right before our eyes.  Just imagine Kauffman stadium sitting empty, covered with dust and cobwebs, every night this Summer.  How would you like that?  I know about the severe blow your pride has suffered while rooting for a loser.  My pride has suffered too.  But wouldn’t it be much much worse if you didn’t have a team to root for at all?  It would stink, times infinity, beyond your imagination.

And I don’t want to hear about people switching their allegiance to Sporting KC.   To even consider that your allegiance can just be switched on an off is one of the top five stupidest things I’ve ever heard.  Oh the Missouri Tigers didn’t make the final four?  That’s OK, you should just root for the Jawhawks now.  Stupid, stupid, STUPID!  Never going to happen!  Stop asking me not to root for the Royals.

Yuniesky Betancourt demonstrating his cat-like moves at second base. Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

And yes, I do have several bones to pick with the Royals too, such as how in the world they reached the brainless decision that it would be better to have Yuniesky Betancourt playing second base than Johnny Giavotella?  It boggles my mind, boils my blood, and makes my head want to explode – so don’t even get me started on that.   I could fill an entire book with my opinion of the stupid, dim-witted, and virtually unforgivable moves I’ve watched the Royals make over the years, but I won’t waste your time with that right now.  (I list a few of these moves here, including the one they made on December 11, 1991, in my opinion the darkest day in the history of Royals baseball.)   Call me a Homer at your own risk.

I’ve been a Royals fan since June 13, 1969 when I attended my first game with my father and uncle sitting behind the first base dugout in old Municipal Stadium.  And wouldn’t you know it, the Royals lost 6-0 to the Tigers.  I fell in love with the Boys in Blue on a night when they not only lost the game but were shut out, only had 4 hits, and were knocked 9 games below .500 into next to last place – and no other team has ever since occupied the same cherished and beloved space in my heart.  I don’t follow this team year after year after year after year because they are winners (obviously not), I follow them, and root for them, and cheer them on because they are MY team, and nothing is ever, ever going to change that.

I’ve followed the Royals faithfully for 42 years and I’ve only seen one lonely championship.  There is quite literally no one anywhere who has endured more as a Royals fan than I have.  My hopes and dreams have been raised time and time again, only to be dashed on the rocks of quarter-billion dollar opposing team payrolls.  It isn’t fair, we don’t deserve it, and for all I know the stress has shaved a few years off my life.  If anyone anywhere has earned the right to complain about this team or desert them, after four decades of futility and frustration, it’s me.   But in my wildest dreams I can’t imagine myself ever rooting for any team other than the Royals.

I like the direction we’re heading, I believe the plan is sound, and I have great respect for the talent, attitude, and integrity of our budding young stars.  And after all these many years, I’m willing to be patient a little longer.  I’d like to encourage you to stand with me and be patient just a little bit longer too.  And when the Royals eventually win it all  (and they will win it all in the not terribly distant future, trust me), we can say that we were here from the beginning, with our heads held high, long before people in Florida and Utah, and yes even New York decided it was cool to wear a KC cap.

Now you know exactly how I feel.  #BuryMeARoyal.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Johnny Giavotella is starting the year out in Omaha after spending two months in Kansas City last season. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

After a road trip that has to be seen as a good one (today’s loss was rough, but the Royals return to Kansas City 3-3), the Royals are off on Thursday before the home opener on Friday. It seems like a good time to check in with Omaha and look at what’s going on with the defending Pacific Coast League champions.

With a team that boasts many of the key contributors from last year’s roster, Omaha has opened up 6-1, including a 16 inning win against Round Rock on Tuesday.

New contributors have stepped up to fill gaps where other players have been promoted. Lorenzo Cain is the everyday center fielder in Kansas City, but Derrick Robinson has started off hot with 13 hits in 32 at bats so far. The speedy outfielder has been hanging around the Royals system for a few years now and early success in Omaha is encouraging. The speed and defense are apparent, but the question with Robinson is whether or not he can develop a bat to make him a productive player in the lineup. He showed glimpses late in 2010 and at times in 2011, but it hasn’t clicked yet.

Max Ramirez has two homers and 8 RBI. Kevin Kouzmanoff has five doubles and 9 RBI. Both were minor league free agent signees this offseason.

Clint Robinson is picking up where he’d left off in each of the past two seasons. After winning the Texas League Triple Crown in 2010, he hit .326/.399/.533 last year in Triple A. He had 52 homers and 198 RBI in 2010 and 2011 combined. Fortunately for the Royals organization, they have solid depth at the first base position. Unfortunately for Clint Robinson, he’s stuck behind Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler. Still, the performance is there so far.

Some surprising names have been producing on the mound, too. Vin Mazzaro has had two good starts, putting up a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings and has struck out 10 batters. According to Lee Warren (@OmahaBaseball) of Yahoo Sports, Mazzaro’s slider has looked great early on.

Jeremy Jeffress and Louis Coleman have both been strong out of the bullpen and both figure to see time at some point in Kansas City as the Royals take advantage of available option seasons with some of their young bullpen arms. Nathan Adcock had a good first start, as well, a year after being a Rule 5 guy all year in Kansas City.

Two players have been disappointments in the rotation though.

Will Smith had solid control through the minors with 2.2 BB/9 over his career (520.1 IP) but has walked seven batters in 7.1 innings over two starts so far. He made nine starts in Triple A while part of the Angels system before the Royals acquired him as part of the Alberto Callaspo trade but he didn’t struggle like this. He should even it out as he gets more comfortable – it’s only two starts.

Mike Montgomery hasn’t jumped out strong yet, though he’s only had one start but gave up seven hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out three batters. That’s just not going to work if he’s going to progress into a pitcher who’ll see Kansas City before the All-Star break. He only gave up two runs against Round Rock but the threat for more is always present with that many baserunners reaching.

A key player that many are interested in is Johnny Giavotella. Lee Warren shared an interview he did with Gio just before the season started where they discussed his defense and what he’s working on, as well as his time in the big leagues in 2011. Other comments from Omaha manager Mike Jirschele point out that Giavotella is taking extra reps before regular workouts as he tries to get to where the Royals feel comfortable bringing him up and keeping him up at the big league level. Giavotella is hitting .296/.387/.444 in six games in the young season.

Below is the embedded clip of Warren’s interview with Giavotella and other segments with Jirschele. He was kind enough to share the audio with the Royalman Report and is allowing us to pass it on to listeners and readers. You can check out his work on Yahoo here.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We were pleased to feature a trio of local sports commentators on the latest Royalman Report.

Curtis Kitchen covers a bit of everything at CurtisKitchen.com but primarily focuses on the Big XII and Kansas State sports. He also works with 610 sports. He joined us to discuss the Frank Martin escape from Manhattan and the state of KSU basketball.

We then jumped into Royals baseball with Nate Bukaty, who you’ll recognize from his reporting during the Royals pregame and postgame shows. We covered a bit of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game beforehand but then got to talking about the starting rotation, particularly Luis Mendoza‘s potential to continue the success he had last season in Omaha.

Finally we were joined by Robert Ford, who handles the pregame and postgame shows for 610 sports. A key topic was the Yuniesky Betancourt/Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella second base drama.

We finished up with the usual crew talking about the Alex Gordon contract extension.

It was great to have the trio on the show.

A programming note: We don’t have a show scheduled for Sunday night as usual but will be out at Kelly’s Westport Inn on opening day April 6 for a tweet up among Royals fans, Kings of Kauffman readers and Royalman Report listeners. Anyone (21+) in the KC area can hang out and talk some Royals baseball before the Royals take on the Angels, then stay and watch as the season finally gets underway.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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And I guess, that is where the analysis of these moves should stop.

As Royals fans, we’re all lucky. Not lucky that we get to cheer on a winning team mind you, but lucky that we’re all part of what has to be the most engaged and impassioned fan base throughout baseball. (As Michael Engel wrote about here)

And because of that we often argue with one another over moves and decisions that are made for a baseball team that only amounts to being a really bad one. Maybe this year will be different, maybe next year will be different, but all along the way we’ll have each other to read, discuss, debate, argue, and get mad at. Sometimes it’s fun, sometimes it’s productive, but most of the time, it’s just all of our angst to get the damn season started already. And to see some wins, for a change.

So when I originally sat down to write this piece I wanted to snipe at the fact that yes, indeed, Chris Getz is going to get lots of playing time (still accomplished that, actually) and 12 freaking pitchers are being carried without Louis Coleman being one of them. But I just don’t have it in me tonight.

The move to send Coleman to Triple-A, while still inducing eye-rolls and head shakes, isn’t really as frustrating as some of the things we as fans have had to deal with in the past. It’s simply a “meh” move stuck at the end of a series of “whatever” moves. It’s been a long offseason. (#yuni’d)

The thing is, now, even though there are still plenty of reasons to believe this “Mission” won’t really take place for another year, at least we’ll get a full season to watch Eric Hosmer swing, Alcides Escobar play short, Alex Gordon wear a uniform, Billy Butler not be clutch while getting on-base a ton, and Jeff Francoeur smile. And for this night, and maybe this night only, I’m okay with that.

I want to get worked up over Louis Coleman and Johnny Giavotella being sent down and having Bruce Chen‘s 86 mph fastball start opening day – cause let’s be honest, that’s kind of my place here – but frankly I just don’t care.

I’m ready for the season to start. I’m sure most of you are too.

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The key moves today sent Kevin Kouzmanoff, Tommy Hottovy, Max Ramirez and Francisley Bueno to minor league camp. They also optioned Louis Coleman and Jeremy Jeffress to Omaha.

Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler are set to bash the American League. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

That leaves 31 men in big league camp, but five, Salvador Perez, Manuel Pina, Blake Wood, Feilipe Paulino and Joakim Soria, will start the year on the disabled list. Perez, Soria and Pina will be out for extended time, with the two catchers being placed on the 60 man disabled list. Sean O’Sullivan is the only outlier. He’ll start against the White Sox on Friday, then should be placed on waivers with the intention of sending him to Omaha. If he clears he can’t reject the assignment.

Most of the Royals everyday lineup is in place from last year, with the second base and catching jobs still in the air. Humberto Quintero will probably play more than Brayan Pena behind the plate, while no real leader has emerged at second base between Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt. That the Royals expect Betancourt to back up Alcides Escobar at shortstop and Mike Moustakas at third suggests that Getz has the better likelihood to start at second, but the Royals also seem like they really want Yuni there. Jason Bourgeois and Mitch Maier will back up the outfield, with Bourgeois likely to fill a late-inning pinch-running role (and he can hit better than Jarrod Dyson who would otherwise fill that role).

They’ll surround the no-brainer position players like Eric Hosmer.

The pitching rotation was set up when the Royals announced Paulino would start the year on the DL. Bruce Chen leads the staff with Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy set behind him. The bullpen will have three lefties – Everett Teaford, Tim Collins and Jose Mijares – with Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton finishing it out. Any of the four could be the team’s closer, but its likely to be either Broxton or Holland.

The Royals end up with a few players in Triple A who could fill in at the major league level if necessary. Clint Robinson, David Lough, Mike Montgomery, Coleman and Jeffress, Dyson, Irving Falu and, of course, Johnny Giavotella, could all fill in in case of injury, and, Giavotella, Montgomery and Coleman could push others on the big league roster.

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What are the Royals Future Plans for Wil Myers? (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the premiere players predicted to lead the second wave of the youth movement is outfielder Wil Myers.  Myers was drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2009 draft, not because there were 90 players available who were more talented, but primarily because of “signability issues.”  He’s a first round talent that Baseball America has ranked as the Royals 3^rd best prospect behind Mike Montgomery and Bubba Starling.  Myers began his minor league career as a catcher, but was moved to the outfield to hasten his development time and to make way for defensive whiz Salvador Perez – very good forward thinking on the Royals part.

Wil Myers experienced nothing but success during his first two seasons of professional ball.  However, in 2011, he struggled at the plate, hitting just .254 in 99 games for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.  You might think that Wil’s knee injury suffered early last season from jumping over a wet sidewalk, or the subsequent stitches and staples, or the resulting infection and ultimately surgery were the issues that derailed his progress.  However, Myers said he was just thinking too much, “I was pressing and overthinking things.  Trying to work on too many things.  I couldn’t get my foot down (for proper timing.) I was getting a little too selective.“

Last Fall, Myers found his touch again at the showcase for young talent, the Arizona Fall League.  Myers tore up opposing future pitching stars to the tune of .360/.481/.674, one of the top performances in the AFL and better than Bryce Harper by every measurement except home runs.

It was reported last November that the Royals were interested in the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, but the deal was nixed because the Braves wanted Wil Myers in return.  There are mixed reviews on Jurrjens future and his persistent knee problems, but he is projected as the Braves opening day pitcher on a deep staff (due to Tim Hudson’s injury) and he certainly could have improved the Royals weak starting rotation.  If this report is true, the fact Dayton Moore didn’t pull the trigger on the trade tells us the Royals have plans for Myers that involve using him as more than just a trade chip.

Assuming Myers picks up anywhere near where he left off in the AFL, he’ll be banging on the Royals door sometime this year.  The question is, what do the Royals do with him when this happens?  Dayton Moore, Ned Yost and company haven’t answered this question yet.  With a trio of skilled outfielders already patrolling the grass at Kauffman, the Royals brass will have some tough decisions to make.

It’s unlikely Wil would be promoted just to sit on the bench as the 4^th outfielder as this could stunt his continued development.  It’s best for him to be a starting outfielder, regardless of whether this occurs in Omaha or Kansas City.  The only potential easy answer would be that Myers (if he performs well) could be called up when a starting outfielder stumbles, which of course we all hope doesn’t happen.  I think we would all prefer that his strong performance in the minors demands a promotion rather than receiving a promotion by default.

While the most likely destination for Wil is in right field, he has played all three outfield positions in the minors.  Although Alex Gordon hasn’t been locked up long term yet, we all believe it’s just a matter of time before this happens, and the consensus opinion says the delay hasn’t been for any lack of desire on the Royals part to get a deal done.  This makes it unlikely that Myers would inherit left field.

Myers could go to center field, but this position isn’t a natural fit for him.  We haven’t seen a large sample size from Lorenzo Cain hitting against major league pitching, but in Spring Training he has demonstrated the probability that he can more than hold his own.  So once again, it’s somewhat unlikely Myers would end up in center field.

Will fan favorite Jeff Francoeur be the odd man out in the Royals future outfield alignment? (US PRESSWIRE)

This leaves Jeff Francoeur, the fun loving, cannon-armed leader of the Royals outfield as a potential casualty of a Wil Myers promotion.  Would the Royals then trade Francoeur to a contender if Myers promotion occurred prior to the deadline?  It’s possible, but Frenchy is signed through 2013 and while his pay rate isn’t outrageous, at $7.5 million in 2013, it isn’t an amount that most teams would be excited to take on.  Francoeur is a team player, but it’s hard to picture him sitting on the bench next to Yuniesky Betancourt.  (Yuni is going to be sitting on the bench, right?  Please tell me Yuni will be sitting on the bench…)

Another possibility is that Myers performs well this year, but not so well that he can displace one of the Royals current outfielders.  (Does that sound familiar Lorenzo Cain? Déjà vu from 2011.)  Then maybe he’ll receive a call up in September and a taste of the big leagues to see what he can do at the major league level.

None of this conjecture really provides us with any answers for 2012, and if the Royals have any answers regarding their plans for Myers, they aren’t revealing them yet.  It’s possible that things could work out so the Royals won’t be forced to make a decision this year.  But next year in 2013, barring a major injury among Gordon, Cain, Francoeur, and Myers, or a major setback in performance from any one of this group, the Royals will have no choice but to let us in on their little secret.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Alex Gordon projects as the most valuable Royal again in 2012 based on one resource. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

I’m reasonably sure that by this point, most of those who swing by baseball blogs have an understanding of WAR (wins above replacement) or at least an idea. The short form is this if you haven’t run into the acronym: take the contributions of a player on the field, come up with a baseline for a player signed off the street or from the minor leagues and then judge how much better or worse than that “replacement” player someone is and assign a value to it.

Lewie Pollis, editor of Wahoo’s On First on the FanSided Network, built a Simple WAR Calculator and shared it with the baseball community. It’s just that – simple. The goal, as he explains, is this:

The Simple WAR Calculator is my attempt to make these value stats more accessible. By inputting just a few numbers you can get a reasonable estimate of how much a player is worth. It is my hope that it will save my fellow stat nerds some trouble calculating WAR from projections as well as helping non-sabermetrically inclined fans to understand where value comes from and how much each facet of a player’s game helps his team win.

With that in mind, I figured I’d plug in some Royals hitters and see how they wind up.

I used the collected projections on FanGraphs.com to come up with an average estimation of a player’s projection. Then I put those averages into Lewie’s WAR Calculator and looked at the results.

Within the calculator, baserunning and defense are rated on a scale, so it’s not exact. I made the best estimation I could based on scouting and my own interpretations. The full spreadsheet is available here if you’re interested in seeing the collected projections and averages.

The calculator isn’t an exact tool, but it can provide an idea of potential value for Royals players (a pitching version is in the works). Players with lower projected on base percentages really took a hit. That’s to be expected. If you’re not on base, you can’t score a run and runs are what create wins. In the case of Chris Getz, who has shown skill in stealing bases and has a reputation of average defensive ability, those extra areas helped him retain value, despite replacement level on base percentage and very low slugging. Betancourt, who has no such reputation and relies on a slugging percentage that is decent for his position and is below average everywhere else, did not fare well in this exercise.

Last year’s most well-rounded player, Alex Gordon, projected to be the best again in 2012, though Eric Hosmer could easily take that spot as well if he’s able to get on base a bit more than he did last year and if he starts to develop quickly at the plate and in the field as scouts suspect he will.

I omitted Salvador Perez because it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll get and projections assumed he would get the majority of the time behind the plate. In the cases of Getz, Betancourt, Quintero and Pena, they all had a range of projected plate appearances, and it’s not clear now how often each will play. Since projected playing time for both positions (second base and catcher) ended up being a close split, so I left it’s a close enough estimation.

Cain and Escobar both benefit from speed and defensive ability, while projections are reasonably friendly to both as well. Butler’s projections were entered to consider him as a DH so defense didn’t factor in. When rated as a first baseman, his value dropped – as one would expect.

One final note: while spring training stats aren’t a great gauge of how a player will actually play once the season starts, the top players in the table are doing quite well in spring training this year. There’s something to watch during the season.

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Farewell for now, GIo. (Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

We don’t know it for sure yet, but it seems that Mike Moustakas is going to get a pass on his Spring Training. After Johnny Giavotella was sent down to “work on his defense” in Omaha, I wondered why Moose gets a pass for his Spring. I understand that Giavotella has more competition, but wasn’t Yuniesky Betancourt also brought in to play a little third base?

These are very different situations. Last season, Moose tallied 365 plate appearances, while Giavotella racked up just 187. For comparison’s sake, Chris Getz was able to squeeze in a tiny sample size of 429 plate appearances. Let’s hope that never happens again.

So, Moose had a rough start and hot finish, while Giavotella had a quick start and slow finish. Gio also walked very little, and that should be a focus this spring. However, in 44 and 47 plate appearances respectively, Gio and Moose have 1 and 2 walks, with Moose striking out three more times than Gio. Moose has also batted worse, finding himself with a worse triple slash line in every stat than Gio. Meanwhile, Getz hit like Getz hits and Yuni played like Yuni.

Moose notoriously has slow starts, so I guess he gets some relief there. And Gio came into camp with more competition, as Moose only had to fight off Kevin Kouzmanoff and the 10 plate appearances he got. I understand that Moose comes in with loftier expectations than Gio, who has scrapped and fought his way to the majors (not that Moose hasn’t worked hard). They want to give Moose the benefit of the doubt. I get that.

However, since I’m sticking with this, I’ve had more problems with Moose’s defense than Gio’s. Since Moose plays at the hot corner, he needs to tighten up the screws a bit. Maybe he needs to go to Omaha to work on his fielding skills. Maybe he needs to get those throws on line and work on fielding grounders.

Whether you look at the bat or the glove, I can’t really separate the two from needing more time in Omaha, if Gio does need that. There’s no sense in rushing Moose if he’s not totally ready, right? So, what’s the deal?

This argument isn’t really about Moose needing to go to Omaha. It’s about the inconsistencies of the Royals’ reports. It’s about their dishonesty in this case, as I’ll never believe that it’s just defense that Gio needs to work on. Moose is just as guilty of a poor spring as Gio is, and since they brought in Yuni to play a little third anyway, why not stick with Yuni and Getz with a utility infielder while Moose and Gio both tighten up their skills to better prepare them for the future?

I hope Gio comes out firing and Moose gets that hot start he’s missed out on. I hope Yuni and Getz are Yuni and Getz, providing just what we expect and no more. And I hope for these things to happen not only because I want to see the young, touted prospects succeed and the Royals win, but because I want to see what the front office says when Gio deserves a May call-up to replace a bumbling Getz. I want to hear their justifications then.

And I bet you anything that it won’t mention how amazing Gio’s defense has become over the following couple months.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

The Royalmen celebrated the First “podiversary” of the Royalman Report. What once started as two Royals fans trying to organize their thoughts has now turned into this… The best podcast in Kansas City.

To celebrate, we recorded live from Kelly’s Westport Inn (so the crowd is a bit raucous – use headphones when listening) and were joined by dozens of our closest friends in our biggest tweetup yet. During this episode, you’ll hear about tattoos, the burning of Peyton Manning, the Royals closer situation as well as Fat Billy Joel. You’ll hear young Zachary, a Royals fan since 1990 talk about the 5 years he spent in the womb (you really just have to hear how he explains it). You’ll hear from young Michelle, flip cup “dominator”. We also talked to some more knowledgable people in the form of Curtis Kitchen and Dave Darby. And then we balanced that with talking with Jenny and Lance Otto and Laurie “Moose Knuckle” Kunkle. It was a tremendous afternoon and helped accent a great year. Thank you for continuing to listen and help make us the number 1 podcast in Kansas City.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

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You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

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Sometimes organizations never get outside of their box. Their schema is ingrained in every aspect of their operations and they are never – out of presumably fear, but possibly ignorance – altered for any reason, despite what evidence there is to do so.

On Sunday the Royals announced that Johnny Giavotella was optioned to Triple A and they plan to start some combination of Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt at second base.

This should come as no real surprise to any fan. The Royals, who have made questionable decisions with the roster over the past five seasons and have already established a loose understanding of how outs work, have elected to field what may be the worst hitting middle infield in baseball.

The idea that a young pitching staff needs to have a quality defense behind it in order to not lose confidence, or whatever reason may be given, is nice. But when a lineup will consist of No. 7, No. 8, and No. 9 (and possibly No. 6 as well) batters that will all struggle to post on-base percentages of just .300, just how important is their defense, really? Hitters that struggle at baseball’s most fundamental skill of not making outs on offense can’t be considered valuable to the team as everyday players. But, in the case of Getz and Betancourt, all of that is ignored because of some indefinable, and statistically disproven, ability to make plays on ground balls.

When all is considered of Betancourt’s inability to get on base or Chris Getz’s inability to bat a ball into the outfield, none of that is nearly as frustrating as it is to know that this decision was made before Spring Training. Because, don’t kid yourself, it was.

Responsible organizations don’t make roster/playing time decisions in a year that they’re supposed to contend or have some “Mission” to attain, based off of what amounts to 40 at-bats in scrimmage games. If so, there would be no greater argument given to the idea of sample sizes.

If Giavotella came into camp with a bad attitude, out of shape, or some other trait detrimental to his production, then sending a player down for a “wake up call” could be warranted. But nothing of the sort has even been hinted at over the past month.

Instead, stories of Getz’s completely revamped offensive game or Betancourt’s transition to second base have littered the Royals narrative. This was never a position that was Giavotella’s to lose, as it should have been, but instead it was his job to win. And the decision of whether the younger, more talented Giavotella had won the job or not, was made before camp ever opened. He doesn’t fit in the box of the type of player the Royals like. He’s not safe enough. He gets on base too much.

As Rob Neyer wrote, this is the status quo for an organization that has continually circled the parking lot around the arena of interesting. There are no surprises; there are no changes. There is only a process in which to operate in the same manner that the operation has always been done.

Just as there are those defending the Phillies for their decision to let go of Ryan Madson while overpaying for Jonathan Papelbon, simply because now Madson is hurt, there will be those that defend the decision to play Getz and Betancourt if, somehow, they out-perform their histories and are at least slightly below league-average. It will be credited to some kind of “human element” and some kind of knowledge that baseball people possess that no one else ever could. It will be defended because the outcome was favorable.

But, just as is the case with the Phillies, favorable outcomes do not excuse bad process. And the process that concludes with Giavotella in Triple A and Getz and Betancourt sharing time at second base, was a predictable one.

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These fans got autographs from Johnny Giavotella just in time, as he's now in minor league camp. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Chris Getz is going to be the starting second baseman. Again.

Johnny Giavotella (along with Jarrod Dyson and Vin Mazarro) was optioned to Triple A Omaha. Cody Clark, Irving Falu, Tony Abreu and Zach Miner were shifted to minor league camp.

Giavotella’s demotion is the standout move, as he was projected to be the everyday player at that position in 2012. After a strong 2011 in Omaha, he hit .247/.273/.376 in 187 plate appearances for the Royals. In 44 spring at bats, he was hitting .250/.276/.318. Coming off of hip surgery in the offseason may be causing problems, or it could just be a slow start. Whatever the case, Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt will handle second base at the start of the season.

The reason cited by Ned Yost was Giavotella’s defense. In doing so, he suggested the Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt are better defensive options. I can’t suggest that Giavotella is going to contend for a Gold Glove Award at any point, but Getz has been below average defensively over the span of his career, and has had negative defensive runs saved figures every season as a big leaguer according to the Fielding Bible*. Betancourt, at least at shortstop, is even worse both statistically and by reputation. Perhaps in a less demanding area like second base, he can handle it defensively (or at least better than at shortstop), but neither could be a significant upgrade defensively, especially considering that Getz won’t hit (if more than 1000 major league plate appearances is any indication). Giavotella rated as losing one run defensively by John Dewan’s calculations in 46 games.

*Getz looks better by Baseball-Reference’s defensive measurements, coming in at +6 runs above average for his career, but the Fielding Bible metrics take into account the context of the game when the play is made and how fielding performance is relative to the average fielder. It doesn’t seem to take into account plays that should have been made but weren’t, instead factoring in only the plays made. In other words, if Getz can’t make a play on a ball that a typical second baseman can get to, does it really help save a run?

Yost acknowledged that the 44 at bat sample by Giavotella isn’t reliable, but believes he can hit. It’s not clear how much more someone can improve their defense in the minor leagues, and an extra month or two isn’t going to be enough time to make such a change in fundamental skills that Will Carry over.

If only spring stats were taken into account, yes, I can see how Getz and Betancourt would be favored. Getz has hit better in Surprise producing a line of .276/.313/.310 in 29 at bats. Betancourt put up a .233/.283/.395 line in 43 at bats but with a guaranteed contract and supposed position flexibility, it means Giavotella, with options, ends up out of the running.

I fully expect Getz to return to his typical levels of production, which means weak contact, not making it on base, and no power. He’s changed his stance, sure, but how often do 28-year-old players (with no track record of exceptional production) make one adjustment and change who they are as a hitter? Not often, I’m afraid. Is his defensive strength so much greater that it justifies him hitting .254/.315/.307 while Giavotella ends up learning nothing about hitting big league pitching in Omaha? I think not. Giavotella’s the best player for the position and he fits within the long-term framework of the organization. It’s of no benefit to him or the Royals to have Giavotella in Omaha.

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Dayton hasn't had a good week. It's getting to me. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Eight days ago, Salvador Perez was diagnosed with a torn meniscus.

Joakim Soria found ligament damage in his elbow and is likely headed for Tommy John surgery.

In response to the hole at catcher, the Royals traded what some consider a top-20 prospect in Kevin Chapman for a catcher who wasn’t even going to make the Astros and a 30-year-old outfielder who didn’t get any kind of full-time action until last year. And Chapman might not be the only prospect the Royals give up.

It’s a move that has many fans scratching their heads and others in baseball questioning the wisdom of the deal, too.

More AL Exec: “Quintero’s going to get squeezed out, makes 7 figures, and you give up a real prospect for him?”

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) March 22, 2012

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said that the player to be named later would be a key to the Quintero deal. The implications behind that amaze me. Quintero, among the worst players in the game at getting on base, being a piece of the trade is fine. The Royals needed a catcher that wouldn’t be a liability behind the plate until Perez could return. No problem. I’m not even too sore about losing Kevin Chapman, who has real skills but has to harness them to be productive. He’ll probably have a career as a lefty middle relief guy with Matt Thornton upside for a couple of years. It’s not a crime to give him up.

But this player to be named later business is increasingly worrying. Usually, a PTBNL isn’t much. They’re just someone to plug into the lineup somewhere in the minors most of the time. But because recently signed players aren’t eligible to be traded. Recently signed players such as 2011 draft picks. Just the thought of some speculation concerns me.

But the week gets worse still.

The Royals most important pitching prospect, Mike Montgomery, has already been jettisoned back to minor league camp with no further shot to make the team out of spring training and no signs of improvement from last year’s dismal year.

To top it off, Bruce Chen got destroyed against the White Sox today and hasn’t had a decent outing yet. And he’s signed for two seasons. Oh, Danny Duffy got hammered as well.

Not Dayton Moore’s best week.

It’s a bit frustrating, especially considering the optimism entering spring training. Perhaps the optimism even makes it more disappointing to see certain aspects of the team continue to flounder. At least before nobody really thought there was progress in the near future. Royals fans could focus on the koan of “one of these years” while accepting their suffering.

My biggest fear is that there’s a solid chance that the Royals open this season with Johnny Giavotella and Danny Duffy in Omaha. I’ve railed against Luis Mendoza before but he’s performing. The Royals are pretty much stuck with Chen though, unless he’s just so awful that they can’t avoid dumping him (not that they would because of that second year on his contract and all).

Moore signed Yuniesky Betancourt, and while I accept the premise that if his name was Jeff Betancourt or Yuniesky Smith and had the exact same attributes, I’d be less offended, it’s still Yuniesky Betancourt, and everybody knows who he is as a player. And he might end up being the opening day second baseman. Or it might be Chris Getz, who has changed his batting stance and is hitting this spring. My issue is that players rarely change who they are after a certain point and Getz is past that point. Maybe he’s figured something out, but odds are he hasn’t. Giavotella won’t improve defensively beyond what experience in the big leagues can give him. It’s clear who he’ll be with the glove. That makes it all the more important that he works out how to hit major league pitching because that’s where his value lies.

But Giavotella, with sporadic playing time, hasn’t hit that well. He drove in a run today against the Angels with a single. He’s still hitting just .220, so he’s not doing himself any favors. If he hits for the next two weeks of spring, he’s a cinch to open up in Los Angeles on April 6, but if he’s only made slight progress, I wouldn’t put it past the Royals to keep Getz and Betancourt platooning at second. Giavotella can go back to crushing Triple A pitching and staying stagnant.

March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy (23) throws against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

The same goes with Duffy. Though now that Soria is out, the Royals may be able to keep all six of the potential five starters (be sending one of Felipe Paulino or Mendoza to the bullpen), if that’s not an option, Duffy, with options, will go back to Omaha. I still don’t see Mendoza keeping this up into the season, but to this point, he’s managed to keep building on last year’s numbers and if it’s between he or Duffy, Mendoza’s winning.

That’s not to say that Duffy’s been as bad as the 7.56 ERA he sports now. He’s had two bad innings out of 8.1 pitched this spring, he’s striking batters out and hasn’t had bad control. Today’s second inning is a great example of how numbers can sometimes deceive when not viewed in the proper context.

Duffy opened up the second inning by getting Vernon Wells to pop out for the first out. Kendrys Morales came up for his first at bat of spring and didn’t make solid contact on a pitch, but it was placed well enough to get into right field for a single. Bobby Abreu got to two strikes then fouled a pitch off towards the left field foul line. Alex Gordon went over and had plenty of time but lost it in the sun. It fell foul, but prolonged the at bat. Abreu doubled. After a strikeout by Alberto Callaspo for the second out, Chris Iannetta doubled in both Morales and Abreu, then scored himself after an Erick Aybar single and Howie Kendrick triple.

If Gordon catches the foul ball, though, Callaspo’s strikeout ends the inning and Duffy doesn’t give up a run. It wasn’t ruled an error – plays in the sun rarely are, especially on foul balls – but if it were, reconstructing the inning would compel the official scorer to deem all runs unearned. Duffy had another unearned run in the first after a passed ball allowed Kendrick to advance from second to third. He scored on a ground out to short that would have kept him on second.

No, those circumstances don’t excuse Duffy from giving up the runs. He still gave up the hits after Callaspo’s strike out (though he also had a two strike pitch to Iannetta called a ball that looked like a strike as well and would have avoided all the trouble he ran into on the next pitch and beyond).

Despite that, and despite his being the most talented pitcher the Royals have in the rotation mix, it’s probably going to chase him to the minors where he has nothing else to learn.

I guess right now I’m having a crisis of confidence in Dayton Moore to make the decisions necessary to put developing, talented players in a position to continue to develop and exhibit their talent. His wonky moves aren’t helping. Nevermind the redundancy that is Jason Bourgeois (who is faster than Mitch Maier but not as fast as Jarrod Dyson, and who hits better than Dyson but not Maier). While I also liked the Jonathan Broxton signing, it’s an odd use of $4 million when the Royals have an overflowing bullpen as it is.

Can anyone talk me off the ledge?

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Who will be the Royals starting second baseman on opening day? (Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals 2012 season is going to be like a good book or movie.  Lots of intersecting plotlines, intriguing drama, memorable heroes, wild action scenes, and despicable bad guys.  The major difference between this year and seasons past is that the story of the Royals in 2012 has the potential for a happy ending.  No other Royals season for the past umpteen years can say that.

Many of the story lines will be decided in the next several days, but others will hold our attention for months – and that’s another thing that makes this season different from most others.  If the story plays out the way we expect, we’ll still be watching and listening with rapt attention until the last game against the Tigers on October 3.

Here’s an enticing potential storyline for us to begin with.  What if (now just humor me for a moment, this could happen), what if the Royals are within 3 games of the Tigers when the final series with them begins on October 1?  Does it make this storyline even more fascinating if you know these games will be played in Kauffman stadium?  You couldn’t plan a better outcome for 2012, could you?  I bet just the thought of it has your juices flowing already.  I think it’s a very optimistic thought, and few if any Royals fans I know are expecting the team to be in contention down the stretch, but we’re all hoping for it aren’t we?  And I think all of us would say that it COULD happen, which makes this storyline one that will likely keep our attention well into the season.

And if you’re wondering why I’m using the Tigers as the team I’m suggesting will lead the AL Central this year, well… Verlander, Fielder, Cabrera – that’s why.

Who is going to play second base for the Royals this year?  The smart money is on Johnny Giavotella who finished the year at second last season, but it could be Chris Getz or (knock on wood), Yuniesky Betancourt.  Giavotella has the potential to be clearly the best hitter of this group, but his defense is suspect and he may still be recovering from surgery to correct a labral tear in his hip that hindered his ability to move side to side.  Alex Gordon underwent similar surgery in 2009 and so far, I’d say his defensive capabilities have not only recovered, but have contributed to raising his status to one of the top left fielders in the league.  (Who would you rather have in left field than Alex Gordon, MLB’s 24^th ranked player in 2011 according to ESPN’s player ranker?  No one?  That’s what I thought.)

Chris Getz has changed his “swing path” and his stride to the ball this Spring, which so far is showing promising results, but he’s still an underdog to usurp the position from Johnny.  One other frightening prospect is the hopefully very slight possibility that because both Getz and Giavotella have options remaining the Royals have the flexibility to send either Johnny or Chris to Omaha (or both – Yikes!) and let so-called utility player Yuniesky Betancourt play second base.  (I say “so-called” because he’s never really played all the positions he’s being asked to backup.  And why would we want him to anyway?)   Without going into great detail in this post regarding how I feel about this possibility, you can read what I think here.  You can also read how Kevin Scobee feels about it here.  Suffice it to say, it alarms both of us.

Will the Royals still be in the race at the All Star break?  I just finished writing (or maybe dreaming) in the 3^rd paragraph that the Royals could potentially be within 3 games of the Tigers at the end of the season, so obviously I think the Royals will be in the race at the All Star break.  There are many positive and negative aspects of a team comprised of mostly young, enthusiastic, but somewhat inexperienced players.  The energy that comes off this team is infectious and I love watching them chest bump each other and feed off of their teammates’ play.  But teams like this can be emotional, and streaky, and an 8 game losing streak could jeopardize everything they’re trying to accomplish.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer share a little love (Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

Will one of the Royals beat Steve Balboni’s 1985 single season 36 home run record?  (Balboni also led the league in strikeouts that year with 166.  Ay caramba!)  There are few records in baseball that are begging to be broken more than this one.  I know Kauffman stadium is a pitcher’s park, but come on guys, somebody needs to break this record, please!  Mike Moustakas has the pedigree to break the record.  He hit 52 homes runs during his high school career (a California state record) and he led all minor league players with 36 home runs in 2010 while playing in just 118 games.  Back in late January, one of the guys on the MLB Networks’ Inside Pitch program predicted that Eric Hosmer would eventually win the triple crown.  I believe both Moose and Hoz have the potential to break the record, and very possibly both of them will break the record…  someday, but probably not in 2012.

Will Alex Gordon repeat his All Star worthy performance from 2011?  The respected ZiPS projection system has Gordon pegged to backslide from his 2011 performance and end 2012 with a .278/.358/.464 line (he hit .303/.376/.502 in 2011) and 20 home runs.  Those stats are decent, particularly for a guy expected to turn in a strong defensive performance, but probably not All Star worthy.  On the other hand, I think ZiPS may rely too heavily on past performance when creating their calculations and not enough on the intangibles or the fact that someone “figured it out.”  If you look up “figured it out” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Alex Gordon.

Few people have come into the league with higher expectations or potential and in my opinion it has been more of a surprise that Gordon hasn’t been performing at an All Star level prior to 2011 than it should be a surprise if he performs at an All Star level in 2012.  In addition, I believe his chances of making the squad this year are increased because many people took notice last year to how loudly RoyalNation squawked when Gordon didn’t make the team and this should raise his visibility a little in 2012.  Put me down as a believer and firmly in the camp of disagreeing with ZiPS, at least where Gordon is concerned.  I think he’ll be hovering around .290/.295 by the All Star break with 12-14 dingers, which should be good enough for consideration.

Will the Royals place more than one player on the All Star team?  We all know Gordon was robbed last year, but in all likelihood, if he had been selected to the All Star team Aaron Crow probably wouldn’t have gone.  One of the drawbacks of having a young team is that few people know about you and it’s hard for your players to get votes in Baltimore or Phoenix if the fans don’t recognize their names.  And if the fans don’t vote for them, no All Star manager is going to select more than one Royal when he can nominate players from his own team.  And Ron Washington will probably have plenty of deserving Rangers to pick from.

Until the Royals make the playoffs and put themselves on a national stage, I can’t imagine one of them getting the most votes, so I don’t think it’s going to happen this year.  But, there is one possible wild card in the selection process this year – the game will be played in Kansas City at Kauffman stadium.  If Ron Washington wants to make a good impression with the home crowd, he could possibly pick an extra player from the Royals.  The only way to ensure this happens is if a couple of the Royals step up and earn it, forcing his hand to the point that he would have no alternative but to select a couple of the boys in blue.

Will one of the Royals promising minor league pitchers join the rotation?  There are several young pitchers in the minor leagues that could earn the right to be considered for the rotation in 2012.  Many people believe Mike Montgomery is the most likely candidate for this honor, although consensus opinion is that unless he’s “lights out” in Spring Training, he’ll begin the season at AAA.  Going back to ZiPS, they predict that if Montgomery plays for the Royals in 2012, his line will be almost identical to Danny Duffy’s, beginning with a projected ERA of 4.92.  Between you and me, I’d be very happy if Mike could achieve that in his first major league season, although based on his performance in Omaha last year, I’d be mildly shocked if he did that well.

Not including the pitchers who’ve played at least a few games already in KC, there are several additional guys that could make the club sometime in 2012, including John Lamb (his 2011 Tommy John surgery makes his 2012 debut unlikely, although not impossible), Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer, and a few others.  I’m very excited for these guys to all earn their way to KC, but in my opinion, none of them deserve a promotion yet and with the probable exception of Mike Montgomery, I don’t think we’ll see any of them in the starting rotation in Kansas City in 2012.

Will Lorenzo Cain be able to fill Melky Cabrera’s shoes?  If you consider that a player’s value is more than just his production at the plate, I say yes, Lorenzo Cain will be very close to Melky’s equal in 2012.  (Mike Engel said that Melky won’t even be Melky’s equal in 2012, so there’s that.)  Cain plays lights out defense, and while he hasn’t spent enough time at the Major League level to prove himself yet, he’s at least shown that he can hold his own at the plate.  ZiPS says Cain will bat .258 this year, but I think that’s a pessimistic prediction.  I may be surprised, but if the Royals don’t break .500 this year, I’m confident it won’t be because of Lorenzo Cain.

Will the Royals break .500 this year?  As we all know, the last time the Royals broke .500 was in 2003.  Most of the oddsmakers have the Royals pegged at 79-81 wins in 2012, and these are the people who make their living off of predictions like this.  We all know that a clutch double or a blown call can make the difference between at least a couple of games each year, so yes, it’s very, very possible the Royals could break .500 this year.  I’m saying 83 wins this year, and a playoff run in 2013, which I believe is realistic.

Will Sports Illustrated eat their words?  A few weeks ago, I was infuriated by a Sports Illustrated article entitled “Hope Doesn’t Spring Eternal for These Teams”, which listed the Royals, Orioles, A’s, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs as the teams that never have any chance of competing.  The writer of this story obviously knows nothing about baseball history and the periods of time where the major leagues were dominated by the Royals, Orioles, and A’s, and the unexpected championships of the Mets.  And there are more Cub fans who dream of bringing home the trophy each year than there are grains of sand on the beach.

Let’s all answer this together – How many World Series have the Red Sox won in the past 90+ years?  Two.  How many championships have the Rangers won in their entire existence?  None.  How many times have the gigantic market Angels hung the flag in the past 51 years?  One time, the same as the Royals.  If you want to get all caught up in “what have you done for me lately?” then let’s throw all the teams into the pot and consider them equally, and not just the teams that it has become politically correct to bash.

But, beyond these historical slights, the writer obviously hasn’t kept up with what’s been happening in Kansas City in 2012.  Not only are Royals fans fired up beyond any year in recent memory, but the Royals have a very realistic chance to compete, and if a handful of breaks go their way I could see them in contention right up to the wire.  I think it’s highly probable that Sports Illustrated will have no choice but to pay more attention to Kansas City before this season is over.

Spring Training has begun and it feels like we’re watching a preview of coming attractions.  It’s almost time for the book to be opened, the movie to begin, and the curtain to be drawn on the 2012 Royals season.  It’s been years since Kansas City had so many baseball storylines to watch, and longer since the storylines could potentially hold our interest for months to come.  I for one can’t wait.  Get your popcorn ready!

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Luke Hochevar worked two solid spring innings on Tuesday. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Good news: The Royals beat the Padres in Surprise 7-4 behind a power display by Max Ramirez in the DH slot.

Bad news: Short of an Irving Falu homer, they only scored twice in a loss to the Indians.

One of the great things about spring training is getting younger players a chance to get into a game. With two split squad games on Tuesday, the Royals managed to insert a number of non-roster invitees into the lineup to get a look at them on the big fields.

Ramirez, who’ll likely start as the primary catcher in Omaha with Manuel Pina recovering from knee surgery, drove in four with two opposite field homers and Derrick Robinson and Jarrod Dyson used bunts and speed to create three runs. Johnny Giavotella added two hits to bring his spring average up to .500.

Luke Hochevar struck out one, walked one and gave up a hit in his two innings of work. He was followed by Jake Odorizzi for two innings. Odorizzi had a strong first inning of work but gave up four hits in his second inning of work, resulting in two runs. His secondary stuff may not have been sharp (going off of MLB.com’s Gamecast), as he threw 35 fastballs in 45 pitches, but only threw a strike once in his other ten pitches (comprised of curveballs, changeups and a slider). Joakim Soria worked one inning, giving up a double to James Darnell, who scored on an Everth Cabrera single. Soria got Yonder Alonso to ground into a double play to end the inning. Greg Holland worked the ninth, striking out Blake Tekotte to end the game after two groundouts and a double.

3/6/12 Padres vs. Royals scorecard:

In Goodyear, Arizona, the Royals sent Will Smith against the Indians and he had relatively little trouble against a lineup of Cleveland reserves. Jose Lopez and Shelley Duncan both had singles after two outs in the first, but Smith escaped, then induced three groundouts in his second inning of work.

The Indians offense boiled down to one swing by Duncan, who homered with two outs off of Zach Miner in the third inning.

The Royals made up two runs in the fourth inning on a homer by Irving Falu, but the Royals would only get a runner in scoring position one more time the rest of the game, when Kevin Kouzmanoff doubled, sending Clint Robinson to third with two outs in the seventh inning. Both were stranded after Sharlon Schoop (who pinch-hit for Brett Eibner after Eibner was shaken up on a diving catch) grounded out to short.

Billy Butler reached base three times with two singles and a walk and Mike Moustakas walked and singled in the game.

Cuban lefty Noel Arguelles worked two innings, allowing just a single and reportedly looked sharp. Jeremy Jeffress worked a perfect inning as well.

3/6/12 Royals at Indians* scorecard:

The Royals take on the Cubs tomorrow afternoon at 2:05 p.m. CST. Jonathan Sanchez and Everett Teaford are scheduled to pitch as well as Kelvin Herrera, Nate Adcock, Blake Wood and Tim Collins (who have already gotten their first game action out of the way).

*The Indians complex apparently doesn’t have pitch f/x set up, so the Gamecast was not charting every pitch. Instead, it counted only pitches tied to a result.

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Alcides Escobar is a focus for the Royals Front Office. (Photo Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

With all this talk of extensions for young players, I really got to thinking hard about who comes first in this arrangement. Who’s the most important piece to sign? What positions are most necessary? Who has both the skill and the attitude that makes them an integral part of the puzzle going forward?

We already know the first answer. Salvador Perez was signed early last week to a nice 5-year, $7 million contract with a few option years tacked on. It’s the classic case of a low-cost, high-reward extension. It’s been covered extensively, so I don’t want to focus too much on that.

Instead, I just want to think about who comes next.

The young players in camp have made the fanbase put quite a bit of emphasis on signing some long-term. There are the obvious ones — Eric Hosmer — and the ones you think you want, though you want to see a bit more from them first — Mike Moustakas and Danny Duffy. But there are always some that you forget about before you realize they’re gone.

Well, yesterday I bluntly said (on Twitter) that I thought Alcides Escobar should be a focus. When some followers presented legitimate cases why that shouldn’t be so, I sat and thought about it a little more. And then I made up a list of the order I’d want guys signed in, which, oddly enough, follows the early part of the Royals’ desire for extensions (according to Buster Olney of ESPN):

Alex Gordon
Alcides Escobar
Eric Hosmer
Danny Duffy
Mike Moustakas
Greg Holland
Aaron Crow
Johnny Giavotella
Louis Coleman
Lorenzo Cain

We’ll see where that takes us. The first disclaimer is that 2012 performances will obviously juggle this list a bit. Should Cain be a rockstar in centerfield, he’ll vault up the list. Should Holland throw it in the dirt every time, he’ll go down. It’s all relative. Still, I think the first five are set in stone for me.

Gordon is obvious. I’m not going to belabor that point or say again what’s already been said.

The case for Alcides Escobar is much like that for Sal. He plays great defense at a premium defensive position. That alone gets guys long-term contracts. So far in his career, his bat (.252/.294/.339) has been less than stellar, not quite matching his production (.298/.353/.409) at AAA Nashville (Go Sounds!). I can’t really say that his production will shoot through the roof once he gets more time since he’s had two full seasons in the majors, but he did take a small step forward in 2011. Should he take another one, well, there won’t be any debate. And since we’ve given Sal a deal without knowing for sure if he’ll be a great batter or a subpar one, I’m not really sure why Escobar gets the shaft in that respect. He’s a great defensive player at a premium defensive position. A Sal-like contract wouldn’t be out of the question at all, if the Royals could get it.

So, given those three, the Royals would have two core pieces of their defense and a (hopefully) strong piece of their offensive locked up alongside Billy Butler.

I would think the Hosmer debate is obvious, though some may question why he’s not higher. To be frank, I believe the Royals will look for that perfect opportunity to sign him, whenever that is. With Boras in tow, he’ll probably wait until he’s garnered MVP votes or become an All-Star or whatever the case is. So, again, it just comes down to when the Royals find the right time to get him. And they’ll likely have an easier job with Escobar than with Hosmer.

For Duffy and Moustakas, they need to produce. Reports out of camp are good for both of them, from what I’ve seen, and we’ll see if that translates to the regular season. I love both of these guys, but if they don’t take a step forward over a full season, it’ll be hard to justify the contract extensions right now. In Moustakas’ case, Cheslor Cuthbert looks like he could be the incumbent should Moustakas fall, and that provides some insurance that might make it more difficult to go for that extension. Just depends on how the Royals feel about it. And Duffy’s case is that he could be a great pitcher for the Royals for many years and seems to want to be a Royal for many, many years, but he still has to produce. With some issues with other lefties in the organization right now, he’s got the limelight, but should they jump forward and pass him, it gets tougher.

The rest of the list is sort of all over the place. I feel like we need to anchor down the bullpen, a la the Joakim Soria contract years ago, if these guys can stay strong. Holland, Crow, and Coleman all have legitimate cases to stick around for years, and if they throw out another good season, they may end up doing just that.

As for Giavotella and Cain, both are guys that need to hit to stay. In Cain’s case, his defense can save him a bit. In Gio’s case, he needs to hit since his defense isn’t quite as strong. Cain will reach arbitration sooner, but locking up that center fielder for years, should he play well, could be as strong an interest to the Royals as Sal and Escobar are. Like with Gio, we just have to wait and see what he does this year. For a lot of these guys, a lot rides on their ability to stay in the game and play well in 2012.

Well, that’s what I think about it. Like I say, that list can get juggled depending on performance. When Wil Myers hits, he’ll slot in somewhere, but I don’t think that’ll be extremely soon.

Feel free to tell me why I’m crazy or how you’d rank them in the comments below.

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"Country Breakfast" Billy Butler connects on an 0-2 pitch for a 2 run homer Sunday. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

After months of offseason workouts and a week of full camp and intrasquad games, the Royals finally faced a different opponent on Sunday.

They jumped on the board early, as Billy Butler ripped a two-run homer to left off Rangers starter Colby Lewis. With Johnny Giavotella on base after a walk, Butler turned on an 0-2 pitch for the Royals first runs of the Cactus League season.

It was all they would need.

Luis Mendoza got the first crack at the Rangers lineup and threw two scoreless innings, walking one while striking out another. The only hit he surrendered came on a ball that got through to left field, just out of reach of Alcides Escobar. He retired four batters on ground balls.

The Royals added four more runs in the fifth inning after Lorenzo Cain opened the inning with a hustling double. He scored on a bloop single by Alex Gordon, who moved to third on a Johnny Giavotella double to left. Eric Hosmer got a ball through to center field that was ruled as an error on Ian Kinsler, but Gordon and Giavotella scored. Singles by Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas scored Hosmer for the Royals sixth run.

The Rangers lone run came on a solo homer by Mitch Moreland off Sean O’Sullivan in the sixth. The Rangers only managed to advance one  other player past first.

Kelvin Herrera closed out the game against the Rangers reserves by striking out two of the three batters he faced.

Wil Myers reached on an infield single in his only at bat. David Lough and Clint Robinson also added singles once the starters came out of the game after five innings.

Cain and Giavotella are both looking for a strong spring to ensure their job security. Cain is pretty safe, but Giavotella is being pushed by Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt. Giavotella drew the team’s only walk and both players had two hits apiece. Getz and Betancourt, however, went 0-4 combined and didn’t get the ball out of the infield.

The Royals and Rangers play again tomorrow afternoon in Surprise at 2:05 CST. Bruce Chen is scheduled to start for the Royals and pitch two innings.

The scorecard* is below:

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*Scorecard Note: Because it’s spring training, I’m trying out the iScore app on my tablet for the first time. It worked great, other than my own mistake of not entering a full roster of Royals, so when Wil Myers pinch hit for Billy Butler in the seventh inning, it wouldn’t let me go back into the team options and add him to the day’s lineup. So other than that one area, it’s intact. I was going off of the radio broadcast as well while scoring the game, so I half-heartedly tried to monitor pitch locations, and when all the reserves came in at once, it took me an inning to get them entered (after not having them in at first). Due to that, the pitch counts aren’t accurate late. Like I said, it’s spring training, so going forward, I should be able to get all players in beforehand now that I know how chaotic it is to add nine reserves in the middle of an inning.

Keep Your Eyes on Johnny Giavotella (Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One morning last week, as I slipped out of my hotel room and found my USA Today waiting for me, I noticed the headline “50 Names to Keep an Eye on for 2012″. Of course, like any fan, I wanted to see how many of my guys were on that list. Especially since this is what Royals fans are hedging the future of the franchise on – guys to keep an eye on.

#1 on the list is Yu Darvish of the Rangers, who has been a dominant pitcher for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. He was 18-6 last year with a 1.44 ERA and a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 276 – 36. Everyone will be watching to see if the talent follows the hype across the Pacific Ocean.

I was happy to find four of our guys on the list, good for second-most next to Oakland. You know that the A’s are always going to be at or near the top of a list like this, but recently, the Royals have been as well. The A’s have five on the list, including Brad Peacock, who was 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 3 starts for Washington last season. The Mariners also have four prospects on the list (the Royals top them in aggregate score, 98-93) including Catcher Jesus Montero, who the Yankees traded away. Odds are that Montero will DH for the M’s in 2012 after slugging .590 in limited action last season.

All in all, 14 clubs have multiple players on the list, and a total of 26 teams are represented with at least one player to keep an eye on. The Phillies, Tigers, Twins, Mets, and Yankees were shut out. Apparently, they won’t have to keep an eye out for anyone in the state of New York this year. Also, this would appear to be good for Royals fans, having two other AL Central teams with little coming down the pipeline. It can be a bit misleading though, because the Tigers have experience and aren’t banking on prospects for their title run.

As for the Royals on the list?

-#12. 2B Johnny Giavotella, 24: “He’s a solid defender, but he’ll succeed because of his offense. He hits. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out. And he might have the most energy among the three infielders promoted last year.”
Giavotella was the Royals’ Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2011, despite his August call-up and 46 games in KC. His walk to strikeout ratio was impressive in Omaha (40 BB/57 K), but he’ll need to improve upon that at the big league level, as he walked just 6 times compared to 32 strikeouts.

-#14. C Salvador Perez, 21: “Even if he doesn’t repeat the hitting as the starter this year, he’s a strong defender. His success could depend on whether major league pitchers exploit his reluctance to walk.”
Perez surprised everyone by hitting as well as he did during his time in Kansas City last year. He’ll have to be ready to make some serious adjustments and be ready for what American League pitching coaches have been cooking up for him over the winter. When they speak of Perez’s reluctance to walk, he showed that more in Arkansas and Omaha than in Kansas City. He walked just 16 times in the minors last year, and drew 7 walks in a third of the time while in KC.

-#32. OF Lorenzo Cain, 25: “He was the one who was left behind last year as Kansas City moved its collection of prospects into the majors”
We know that Cain was “left behind” only because the Royals were stacked in the Outfield in 2011. I’m sure that at the beginning of the year, he was on Dayton’s list along with the guys who did make it to the show. Nobody could have predicted any or all three of last year’s starters’ success, which kept Cain out of Kansas City for all but just 6 games. With Melky Cabrera gone, the path is clear for Cain to shine in Kansas City. As the starter going into spring training, he’ll need to prove that he’s worthy before the Royals break camp.

-#48. RHP Kelvin Herrera, 22: “The Kansas City bullpen is full of young talent, but hard-throwing Herrera is among those with the best chance of eventually taking over for closer Joakim Soria.”
While in the minors last year, Herrera spent time in A, AA, & AAA uniforms. He pitched in 45 games and racked up 70 strikeouts in 67 2/3 Innings. He made his big league debut on September 21st and earned a Loss. He gave up 3 Runs in his inning of work. He was better four days later, but in a total of 2 innings for the Royals last year, he did not strike out one batter. In order for him to be successful, he’s going to have to figure out what worked for him in the minors and make that happen against big league hitting. The Royals need Herrera to be reliable if there’s any chance of seeing him as a closer in the future.

(#49 on the list is Bryce Harper…)

Now, I know that lists are sometimes lists for lists sake. It’s almost impossible for someone to sit down & come up with a list like this. Like coming up with the “Top 50 songs of all time” or the “Top 10 Steak Restaurants in America”, it’s simply a conversation starter. There’s no way to truly measure it. Nobody will scrutinize this list at the end of the season and hold its author responsible. Know this though – we will surely be watching these guys (and many others) in Kansas City. Now, maybe others will as well. The bottom line is that if we’re all watching, these guys need to show us something.

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Johnny Giavotella should hit behind Gordon. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

As spring training got underway, Ned Yost made an early mention of his vision for the Royals starting lineup. Like last year, he sees Alex Gordon as his leadoff hitter.

Gordon doesn’t fit the typical image of what one might think upon mention of the phrase “leadoff hitter”. Often, that produces the thought of the scrappy, quick player who would open up the game with a drag bunt and try to steal second.

Despite that, Gordon is best suited for the spot at the top of the lineup because he does exactly what a leadoff hitter should do – get on base. Gordon’s .376 on base percentage led all Royals regulars last year. When batting leadoff (as Gordon did for 89 games), he got on base at a slightly better rate (.383) but also produced a .916 OPS. Gordon in the leadoff spot produced in 2011.

Ned Yost discussed what qualities Gordon has that made him a great leadoff hitter when talking with Dick Kaegel of Royals.com – his ability to take walks, drive the ball and produce when the lineup comes back around. Gordon was the most productive player on the Royals last year at the plate, and leading him off also gets him more plate appearances over the course of the season.

For the rest of the lineup, there aren’t a lot of surprises. Behind Gordon, the Kansas City Star projects the rest of the lineup:

1. Alex Gordon – See above.
2. Johnny Giavotella – Yost told Kaegel that Giavotella’s ability to spray the ball the other way and can take pitches makes him a good fit for the second spot. The first half of that, I agree with, though Gio saw 3.65 pitches per plate appearance last year, below the league average of 3.81. It’s a small difference, but it’s still below average. Perhaps after seeing time last year at the big league level and with the knowledge that he’s slated to be the starter will allow him to settle into that role as #2 hitter.
3. Eric Hosmer – Hosmer will probably be hitting in the #3 spot for the next, oh, 15 years or so. He’s the centerpiece of the offense and after a strong rookie campaign, he’s got the highest ceiling of anyone on the team.
4. Billy Butler – After the All-Star Break in 2011, Butler had more RBIs (57) than every other major league hitter except for Robinson Cano (61), Matt Kemp (59) and Evan Longoria (tied with Butler). Of that group, Butler’s 37 extra base hits finished second behind Cano’s 40. I think he can handle the cleanup spot.
5. Mike Moustakas – Moose hopes to build on his blistering finish to 2011. He’ll likely bat fifth against right-handed pitchers. In 267 plate appearances against righties, Moose had a respectable .289/.327/.414 line. When lefties are on the mound, he didn’t fare nearly as well (.191/.258/.236) so when a southpaw is on the mound he’ll hit sixth in place of …
6. Jeff Francoeur – Over the course of his career, Francoeur has hit left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. Last year, he wasn’t too bad against righties, but his best matchup is against a left-handed pitcher (.934 OPS in 2011, .839 career).
7. Salvador Perez – While Gordon’s batting average might slip a little bit and Francoeur could always regress a bit, the one player from last year who is least likely to repeat his numbers from 2011 is Perez. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the potential to be a productive batter, though. His .362 BABIP is rarely sustainable over the course of a full season and he may end up having some streaky moments in 2012. He isn’t one to look for a walk, so he might go through stretches where he doesn’t get on base often.
8. Lorenzo Cain – For me, I’d look to bat Cain seventh ahead of Perez. Cain’s speed is tough to utilize if he’s behind a plodder like Perez. He might strike out more than most would want to see, but he’s been a solid hitter through the minors and did well in half a season in Milwaukee in 2010. He’s going to have trouble duplicating Melky Cabrera‘s 2011 numbers in 2012, but let’s face it, so is Melky Cabrera.
9. Alcides Escobar – While the expectations for his bat are low, Escobar hit well enough last year to be of value, especially considering his defensive play. Nobody should be surprised to see him batting ninth all season, but he does still have some room to grow as a hitter. Last year, he had more than 30 extra base hits, stole 26 bases and had stretches of great production. He could walk more, as he reached base at Getz-ian levels.

There’s no solid option for the #2 spot, but Giavotella is probably the best fit considering the rest of the lineup’s makeup. Cain isn’t an ideal #2 hitter but may end up there if Giavotella struggles. If Gio struggles in Surprise, it may put Getz or Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup more often. That probably sticks Cain in the two spot.

The bottom of the lineup is saturated with right-handed batters, which might cause problems in late situations, but the Royals have lefty Mitch Maier on the bench and switch-hitting Brayan Pena if it comes to it.

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I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

Royals manager Ned Yost is now under contract with the team through 2013. Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Now, before you go into hysterics over the announcement (one way or the other), keep in mind that the move is a common one for manager’s entering the final year of the contract. The generally regurgitated narrative is that a manager cannot exert sufficient control or discipline over his players while his own contract status is up in the air. The argument makes some sense, especially considering that some star players make ten times the annual salary of their manager. If a manager does not have a commitment beyond the current season, then he is essentially on the hot seat.

The scenario is akin to an impending free agent. With no commitment from his current team, that player is usually in full “me” mode, out to prove their worth to every other team in the league during their walk year. Likewise, when a manager operates without that security blanket, it is easy for them to lose focus of the long haul and adopt a win-now philosophy in a desperate attempt to either earn an extension or spruce up their attractiveness to rival clubs.

If you don’t believe me, just ask Jim Riggleman, who quit mid-season in 2011 because he wasn’t under contract for 2012.

So Ned Yost got his security blanket today. But that thin veil of security should not be mistaken for a ringing endorsement. Without a mid-season extension, he will be right back in the same position next off-season.

The Royals front office clearly wants to see what Yost will do with a full season of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and the rest of Kansas City’s much-publicized youthful core. 2010 and 2011 were simply preparation for this season, when Dayton Moore and Co. expect tangible improvement, i.e., a boost in the standings.

2012 is a test. Moore could have eliminated the option and given Yost a contract extension, ensuring his continued employment for years to come. But he( justifiably) didn’t.

I know it’s hard to think of Yost being on the hot seat on the day that his option was exercised. But that is exactly where he will be if this 2012 season does not end as magically as we all hope it will.

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Lorenzo Cain had some success with the Brewers in 2010. Let's hope he provides similar results with the Royals. Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Like so many of you, I’m bouncing off the walls with anticipation for the upcoming season. I keep checking the date, as if pitchers and catchers reporting will be enough to quench my thirst for baseball. It won’t be. But it’s the methadone for baseball addicts, and I need something to curb this craving. I feel like Tyrone Biggums (for those of you who watched Chappelle’s Show).

Partially, I’m excited about the Royals’ chance at success this season, which, as many have noted, is a little higher than usual. But I’m also excited to see the many uncertain storylines play out.

With that in mind, I give you the top five storylines I will be watching closely during Spring Training.*

*There are many, many more than five, but I have to set some limits or we will be here all day. Also, these are not in any particular order.

1)   Lorenzo Cain in center field

Fellow KoK writer Alan Barrington and I had a short back and forth the other day on Twitter in which we disagreed with the criticism by some that Cain is overrated. The crux of our argument is that one must first be rated to be overrated, and no one outside of Kansas City, and maybe Milwaukee, knows who Cain is. If you asked someone from New York who will start in center field for the Royals they would probably answer, What position does Eric Hosmer play again? Go Yanks! I gotta go to the free clinic real quick somethin’s burnin again.

This is part of the reason I’m interested in seeing Cain. He isn’t such a known quantity. He has potential; he hit .306/.348/.415 in 158 PA with the Brewers in 2010 and really mashed in AAA last year (.312/.380/.497). At the plate, Cain needs to be a patient hitter with line drive power and good speed. He strikes out quite a bit, but it’s not debilitating.

It’s a very safe bet that Cain will be much better in the field than Melky Cabrera. Cain has plenty of speed to cover the big outfield at Kauffman and is still making strides as a center fielder. Some say, he has Gold Glove potential as a fielder, and that means he doesn’t have to hit .330 to be effective.

I’ll be interested to see if he really has the type of defensive impact people say he can. If he has that and finds a way to be a patient, semi-productive hitter, the Royals have a great commodity in center field. If he doesn’t, they may be scrambling to find a way to stop the bleeding in center. Did the Giants call no takesies-backsies?

2)   Are you sure you’re Mike Montgomery?

Last year in Spring Training, Montgomery came out firing bee-bees. People started wondering if he would break camp with the team, and rumors swirled that he took it hard when he didn’t. Of course, that decision looked justified after a very tough year in AAA, during which Montgomery’s command abandoned him like good taste abandoned VH1’s programing director.

Still, those who watched him go through last season speculate that he may be a better pitcher for it. He’s got dynamite stuff, and is still young at 22.

Many expect to see Montgomery in the majors this season, though after his fantastic spring last year, people were saying the same thing. If his command is back, and I mean for good, he’ll get his call fairly early in the year. And then, who knows? He’s the type of pitcher who could be called up and instantly become the team’s most effective starter. He and Luke Hochevar are the keys to this pitching staff.

Johnny Giavotella has to find a way to play an average second base if he wants to have a positive impact for KC. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

3)   Johnny Giavotella at second base

I really like Giavotella, or maybe I just dislike Chris Getz so much it makes me like Giavotalla that much more. Either way, I really want Giavotella to break out this year, and I have a feeling he will. Bill James is thinking along the same lines. He predicts a solid year from Giavotella, .295/.342/.419, at the plate. That should be right around where he is all the time.

Giavotella has to be solid with the bat because he struggles with the glove. So, while I’ll be paying attention to his progress at the plate, I’m really interested to see his progress in the field. Most speculate that he will never be a decent fielder because his lack of athleticism hurts his range. While that may be, his lack of athleticism shouldn’t prevent him from making every play within his range. In Spring Training, Giavotella needs to be worked with to make every routine play, always. I don’t mind if he doesn’t have Alcides Escobar’s range, but he needs to make all the plays he can get to.

During these exhibitions, I’ll be looking to see if Giavotella can be what we expect at the plate and take a step forward with the glove. If he can, the Royals don’t even need to think the name Getz.

4)   Who’s afraid of Felipe Paulino?

Honestly, I think the answer is … the Royals. Why? Because Paulino is a wild card, one of those guys who should be pretty good but really isn’t, but people keep giving him chances because he should be good, but he really isn’t, and then he teases people with a stretch that makes them think he’s pretty good, but he really isn’t. My point is, he really isn’t that good.

Or is he?

I can’t tell, and anyone who thinks they can is delusional. Sure, Paulino had a decent stretch last season with the Royals. And yet, he finished the year with an unspectacular 4.46 ERA. He had good strikeout numbers, but his walk rate was pretty high and hitters had a .341 BABIP on him (That’s not luck either. That’s opposing hitters hitting flat fastballs really hard).

I’ll watch Paulino to see when/if he falls. Until he arrived in Kansas City, he never established himself as a consistent performer. Why should we expect him to be one here? And yet, people keep talking about how Paulino should be a lock for the rotation and how he’s so great. When will this illusion end? Will it end? I have to think it’s going to end at some point, and if Paulino struggles in Spring Training and Aaron Crow or Montgomery tear it up, will the team be willing to shift Paulino to a new role? Should they? I have questions but few answers.

5)   Wil Myers against semi-major league pitching

We know Myers can rake at the minor league level, but I want a taste of what he might look like in the majors. Granted, he has more learning to do and will probably start the year in AA, barring a dynamite spring, which might earn him a ticket to Omaha. I’ve only seen Myers play once, and Montgomery struck him out in the Royals Futures Game.

It’s not too hard to imagine Myers hitting well in Spring Training. I know the Royals faithful would be tickled three shades of blue to see him mash in Surprise, and he’s certainly swinging a hot bat going into it. He hit .360/.481/.674 in the Arizona Fall League after a somewhat disappointing season last year.

With Myers in the outfield next to Cain and Alex Gordon, the final piece of the position-player puzzle is in place. This spring, we get to glimpse what we believe will be the Royals lineup that pushes them back into relevance.

Storylines that just missed the list: “Hochevar’s Two-faced ways” and “A Starling is born.”

Now, I need to go find all my baseball movies and watch them before the season starts. First up, The Sandlot.

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Or follow me on Twitter @MarcusMeade