August 07, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Joakim Soria (48) delivers a pitch during a game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

It’s expected that the deal will be finalized later tonight or tomorrow. Soria has to take a physical still and there are other details to work out.

The Royals would have had to pay Soria $8 million to retain him for 2013 which is just too much for him since he’s coming off of his second Tommy John surgery. While he’s still young, the track record of pitchers who’ve had more than one such procedure is not very good. Soria won’t be ready to return until about May as he rehabs from surgery. If he’s able to get back to his old form, he’ll be a great signing for the Rangers, who took a similar gamble with Joe Nathan (though he pitched in 48 games in 2011 for the Twins before the Rangers got him post-surgery). Soria had originally stated that he wanted to close, but must have softened on that wish or there’s some understood idea that if he’s healthy, he’ll close next year or later this season if Nathan is traded.

Soria never fit the mold of a typical closer, as he had multiple pitches in his arsenal and never got too far out of the lower 90s with this fastball. Regardless, he stepped in right out of the Rule 5 draft in 2007 and showed the skill to be a strong setup man and took over the closer’s role when Octavio Dotel was traded to Atlanta. From there, Soria had a great 2008 (1.60 ERA, 0.861 WHIP) and made his first All-Star team. His next two years were strong as well, and he looked like he was on his way to being the heir to Mariano Rivera‘s title as “best closer in the game”. From 2008 through 2010 as full-time closer, Soria threw 186 innings, saved 115 games and had an ERA of 1.84 and a 1.005 WHIP. He struggled in 2011 but his peripheral numbers were still generally strong.

He’s one of only two Royals to make more than one All-Star game appearance since 2000 (Mike Sweeney being the other).

Many had advocated that the Royals could have and should have traded Soria in the past, considering that a last place or lower win team doesn’t need a closer. His trade value got pretty high and the Royals never moved him. Consider it a missed opportunity.

He hasn’t signed elsewhere yet, so this is still a possibility, but it’s sounding like that window is closing.

September 6, 2011; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Joakim Soria (48) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. The Royals defeated the Athletics 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Earlier today, Soria’s agent said that the two-time All-Star would be willing to be the setup man for Mariano Rivera on the New York Yankees. That’s not a bad gig at all, and if that puts the Royals in a bidding war with the Yankees, it’s not likely they’re going to win. Further, signing with the Yankees would almost assure Soria of taking over in 2014 when Rivera retires (IF he retires, ever). Other comments also suggest that closing is in Soria’s mind. His agent, Oscar Suarez, said “he would close everywhere except [New York].”

So bidding war with the Yankees. Strike one. Soria wants to close (which is how it sounds to me). Strike two.

Also, the Yankees aren’t the only team who might look to sign Soria. Mets fans want him. MLB Trade Rumors suggests eight other teams aside from the Yankees could be interested.

For a player that the Royals don’t necessarily need (they have Greg Holland and even Kelvin Herrera if they need a closer), getting into a bidding war when bigger priorities require attention isn’t a smart move. The Royals may see one year guaranteed (with incentives) with an option (or two) as their best offer. Other teams may see a guaranteed two year deal as the same kind of low-investment deal the Royals would see as too much of a commitment.Big market teams can take those chances and eat the money if it fails, if Soria’s elbow isn’t the same. He may not pitch until May or even June, so there’s already some lost value from the Royals side. They don’t need to overpay for just four months of production.

While it’d be great to bring Soria back from a sentimental point of view, the best approach if the bidding gets too high is to bow out. Use the money elsewhere. Many fans will scream bloody murder, especially if the Yankees do sign him. That’s fine. Sometimes the business of baseball has to win out, and this would be a case where the Royals should stick to their guns.

If Soria wants to stay with the team that turned him into a star and helped him through his rehab, they, and Royals fans, would be glad to have him. If he’s looking for more, that’s strike three against the Royals and he’ll be on his way out.

August 10, 2011; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Joakim Soria (48) throws a pitch during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Kansas City Royals 8-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

According to Bob Dutton, the two sides have expressed interest in another deal. For now, though, Soria is a free agent. Whatever deal he signs is likely to be incentive-laden and teams may not immediately trust him to resume closing games. Soria had started throwing again in early October after succumbing to injury during spring training last March.

The Royals were in position to let him go because they have a loaded bullpen with options available to close. Greg Holland is expected to reprise his role as closer in 2013 while Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow could be options for the role if he falters. Even Louis Coleman or Tim Collins could probably do a capable job in that capacity, so the Royals had little need for Soria to fill the back of the bullpen, where he’d reached two All-Star games for the Royals.

After joining the team in 2007 out of the Rule 5 draft, Soria made 298 appearances, covered 315.1 innings and had a 2.40 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He saved 160 games as a Royal, third most in franchise history behind Jeff Montgomery and Dan Quisenberry.

At the end of the year, first round pick Kyle Zimmer had surgery to clean out some bone chips in his elbow (though this was never as threatening as the ligament tears the others suffered).

Obviously none of that is good news.

The good news is that they’re all on their way back.

Soria has recently started throwing again and reports say that he looks good. The Royals have a decision to make on his contract, but the most reasonable idea is to buy out his remaining options for $750,000 rather than pay him $8 million in 2013 (when they don’t know how effective he might be).

Blake Wood is set to start throwing again tomorrow and seems to be ahead of schedule. While Wood isn’t as big of a name as others in the bullpen, he was a serviceable middle relief option in 2011. His presence on the 2012 Royals could have helped soak up a few more innings. He would have been a good option in the first half of the season when the Royals were routinely using five or six relievers to get through games.

April 22, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (23) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Duffy and Paulino are the two names that mean the most going into 2013. Both are expected to be a part of a contending Royals rotation (or at least be in the competition for it). Paulino is staying in Kansas City to work his way back. Bob Dutton reported he’s likely two months from starting a throwing program of any kind. He was off to a hot start last season and had he stayed healthy, would look like a great fit in the rotation right now.

While Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer languish in the minors, Duffy made it up in 2011, then broke camp in the rotation last year. He started out well, striking out more batters and looked like he was figuring out the level of competition, but after six starts, his elbow gave out. As a lefty, he added that element to the rotation, as the other options as southpaw starters turned out to be Will Smith, Bruce Chen, Ryan Verdugo (once) and Everett Teaford. None of those options are particularly overpowering, and a staff would do well to have a strikeout guy every fifth day, especially throwing from the left side.

Both Duffy and Paulino hope to get back around July. Rehab time on Tommy John surgery is usually about 10-14 months, so that may be the optimistic timetable.

Lamb and Zimmer are the two closest to 100%. Lamb’s surgery was long enough ago that it’s just a matter of getting his game conditioning back and used to the pace of the game again. Lamb will start back in Double A after 13 innings at the Rookie level late in 2012. He struck out 14 batters and walked four, though he wasn’t totally sharp. After an offseason of work and more time, his strength and command will return.

Zimmer’s injury was something reported as well-known at the time and bone chips weren’t a short-term worry. It’s still a little scary when your first round pick goes under the knife, especially when it’s a pitcher and the area of concern is the elbow. But everything went fine and he’s in line to start next season at High A Wilmington. In nine starts as a pro, Zimmer worked in 39.2 innings with an ERA of 2.04. He had better than a 5/1 K/BB ratio over that span and most reports pointed to a lot of life on his fastball. Zimmer could be a fast riser in the Royals system, possibly in Double A by the end of next season if he pitches well. Like Lamb, he’s expected to be 100% once spring training rolls around.

These are all good signs. The Royals look to add pitching this offseason, but there’s always a need for good arms on a pitching staff. The Royals could see four pitchers come back and contribute next year at the big league level, which would be a big lift and added depth for the whole organization.

Earlier today, he tweeted that he was throwing for the first time following the surgery, which Bob Dutton described as 25 throws at 45 feet without incident.

Sep 10, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Joakim Soria (48) pitches to the Seattle Mariners in the 9th inning at Safeco Field. Kansas City defeated Seattle 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Soria is under contract through 2014 if the Royals were to pick up two option years. He’s due $8 million next season if they do so, but the Royals can buy out the deal for $750,000 and Dutton reported that they intend to do just that. The implication is that the Royals and Soria will try to renegotiate a deal. Since this was Soria’s second surgery, a salary of that amount is an unnecessary risk. Jonathan Broxton filled in as closer to mixed results (depending on how much you trust ERA) and Greg Holland has taken the reins since Broxton’s trade to Cincinnati in July.

From the Royals perspective, they’d be looking for a short-term contract with performance incentives to limit their risk. Soria would be coming back probably around the end of spring training next year if his timetable is typical of most pitchers who’ve had the procedure done, so it may be difficult for him to find a taker if he were to look elsewhere. The deal he’d get from another club probably wouldn’t be much different than what he’d be offered by the Royals.

Most likely, he’d fit in the bullpen in low leverage situations until he showed that he would be able to handle a typical workload. With his experience in the back of the bullpen, he’d ultimately be headed back to a setup role and perhaps as closer again (though the Royals have plenty of options for that spot if Holland faltered).

Another option is to take the opportunity to avoid an overloaded bullpen and address another area of need – the starting rotation. Earlier this season, Kevin Scobee appeared on the Royalman Report to discuss the potential of converting some relievers into starters. He’d suggested that now would be a great time to try it with Soria because he’s essentially starting from scratch. He hasn’t thrown since March, and the training to return to regular pitching could be set up so as to use him as a starter. The Royals had always intended on using him as a reliever in healthy years, so his training would reflect that. Now, he’s rebuilding his arm strength, the Royals could approach it differently. If it didn’t work out, they could always shift gears and put him back in the bullpen. Soria has four good pitches that he uses regularly and never had the typical closer’s velocity, so his repertoire fits the starting pitcher model more. He may be open to the idea too, since starters will build up more innings (if healthy and effective) and more stats – so if he does sign an incentive-laden deal, he’d be closer to some of those incentives with more innings.

Ignore for a second the needs of the starting rotation. However apparent the holes are with the current 5-man setup, and they are apparent, there are equal amounts of questions that are yet to be answered surrounding an organization that continues to employ a swing first, second, third, and ask questions later, offensive approach.  And because of that offensive strategy added to a base running philosophy akin to the little league team whose runner keeps circling the bases because he represents the last run allowed to score in the inning, no matter how good the starting pitching becomes it might still be overshadowed by an offense that works itself into outs in any way possible.

Despite being 6^th in all of baseball in batting average at .268, the Royals are just 22^nd in runs scored. Surely a lot of that run-scoring disparity is due to so many outs being recorded on the base paths, but it’s also in large part due to the team’s inability to reach base without putting a ball in play.

The Royals currently are 29^th in baseball in walks drawn with 302. Major League average at this point in the season is 367. The Royals are so bad at drawing walks that the same amount that separates them from the Los Angeles Angels at 24^th, is just four less than what separates the Angels from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 12^th.

The distance between the Royals and a slightly above average team in walks drawn is really inexplicable when you consider the easiest way for a small market team to compete is to avoid outs any way possible, with drawing walks being a central component of that, and they are once again one of the very worst at it in the game.

But because the Royals do hit for a high average as a team the offense is looked at as a strength. And positions of strength are usually where teams look towards to trade from when attempting to improve other areas. Well, the most attractive trade pieces currently on the Major League roster are most likely the only two that are most helping the team’s cause of non-out making: Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.

In one you have a great athlete that plays Gold Glove (however meaningful a Gold Glove is) level defense while accumulating 6.9 fWAR last year, and will knock on the door of 5 fWAR this year. In the other you have a 26-year-old that’s turning into one of the better hitters in baseball. Both are under contract and are inexpensive, and both would figure to bring back the most in return if flipped for talent elsewhere.

But would it be worth it?

There doesn’t figure to be much of a difference in the offensive lineup that’s currently being fielded from the one that will be written on the scorecard in 2013. And with rumors circulating more and more that it won’t be until May of next year before Wil Myers takes the place of Out King Jeff Francoeur, there really isn’t much of a reason to expect much of a difference in run scoring and walks drawn.

This is simply an organization that doesn’t value walks, and because of that, it will always be difficult for them to score runs.

However much of an impact it would make on the pitching staff to trade either Gordon or Butler, the net gain might not be worth it when coupled with the crippling loss it would be to the offense.

I advocated last week on the Royalman Report that the best strategy at this point would be to stand pat and hope some of the young pitchers take a step forward, while also seeing if some combination of Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, or even Joakim Soria can make an adjustment to the starting rotation. Would it be a gamble? Sure. But it’s one at this time the team can afford to make because the chance of any pitcher signing with Kansas City that’s distinguishably better than what is already in the rotation is slim.

The Royals are in need of a higher caliber starter than would be available for them in free agency, and possibly than would be better than available via trade. At this point, taking away from an offense that is already 40 runs below the American League average to make an insignificant upgrade over what is currently in the rotation, just wouldn’t be right.

There’s little chance any of the difference-making pitchers would sign with Kansas City. That’s just how it is. But unless there’s a real opportunity to sign one the next tier pitchers in free agency, there’s no sense in trading either Gordon or Butler for that guy.

The Good

Looking good, Billy Ray.

He’s been called overrated. He’s been called merely average. Some rather foggy-glassed fans have called him called a liability. What Billy Butler really is to the Kansas City Royals, is a remarkable rock of consistent and now, near elite level of production. (15^th in all of baseball in RC+) This season he’s no worse than the team’s second best hitter, and looking forward given the way things have gone this season, he would look to repeat that for at least the next few years.

As Butler’s power increases (homerun numbers anyway), his walk numbers would figure to do the same, even though they haven’t this season. And in a lineup and an organization that shows a complete disregard for outs of any manner on offense, having a batter that provides both categories in a lineup that’s rather void of either is invaluable.

The Bad

There’s an argument to be made for why Wil Myers has not, or is not playing baseball games in Kansas City. There is. I think. Maybe.

Whether it would be the 40-man crunch due to the Rule V draft in November, or the gaming of service time so Myers doesn’t hit free agency the year after Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are scheduled to, the reasons for keeping Myers in Omaha are flimsy at best.

The organization already showed its hand in calling up players “when they were ready”. Hosmer was brought up a month into a season of clear non-contention to burn service time because he was deemed ready. Moustakas was the same, as was Danny Duffy. The Royals have already proven that they’re willing to shirk the normal rules of service time and money to get players to the big leagues once they’ve proven they’re ready.

So why is it that Myers continues to hit, and hit well, in Triple-A while Jeff Francoeur continues to be one of the worst players in baseball?

There’s probably a very, very good reason why Myers is still not in Kansas City. The worry would be, however, that the precedent has already been set by the organization that is now changing their rules to accommodate a player they’re well known to love, that just isn’t that good.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We’re back on at our normal time of 7 p.m. CST tonight and talking about the state of the Royals in the post-Yuni era.

The key topics for tonight include, where to find starting pitching for next year (and if that means digging someone out of the bullpen), developing pitching in the minors and the awesomeness of recent minor league performances. To help us out, we’ll talk with Kings of Kauffman’s Kevin Scobee, our resident pitching guru.

We’ll also talk about home runs. The Royals hit a lot on the recent road trip, inspiring discussion of how close Billy Butler might get to breaking Steve Balboni‘s 1985 team record. Mike Moustakas is within striking distance of 20-25 as well.

We should also get to talking about Bubba Starling, Christian Colon and more.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

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Hope springs eternal.  In the chest of all long suffering fans beats an optimistic heart, one that yearns for his or her team to succeed and looks forward to the day when they can celebrate the same championship they’ve watched others enjoy for years.  Occasionally, there will be substance behind the hope and evidence that this year could be different, this could be the year we finally break through.

As you know, this season was “Our Time” and many of us believed 2012 would mark a turning point toward respectability.  Many of the talented young players we’ve watched growing up in the best farm system in baseball were finally arriving in the major leagues and Dayton Moore’s plan was coming together.  If you’ll admit it, I bet you were thinking the Royals would play well this year.  Few of us believed they were playoff bound in 2012, but almost all of us were confident other teams would not be looking past KC this season.

Then something happened.  I’m not sure if any of us know exactly what happened, but something happened.  The Royals play in a weak division which allowed them to remain competitive with a mediocre record and this motivated us to hold onto hope.  But now, only the most die-hard fan still believes the Royals have a shot at the playoffs.  Oh yes, we all still root for them and cheer them on and sit on the edge of our seats shouting for another victory…  but we’ve become realists and we know we won’t be watching the boys in blue this October.  Again.

When did this happen?  When exactly did the Royals 2012 season go off the rails?  If could have been at any one of many twists and turns in the road, and each of us might point toward a different event that caused it.  Here are a few candidates for the prime pothole that caused the Royals train to jump the track:

Pick a Date:  Injuries – There have been so many devastating injuries that have impacted the Royals that I can’t select one date.  At the major league level, the Royals lost Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain for approximately the first half of the season.  Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria have undergone Tommy John surgery.  Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have been on-again and off-again with various injuries.  Other Royals have likely played hurt because the team couldn’t afford to lose another player.  Is it possible that one of these injuries could have cut the cord on the Royals’ season?

March 26:  Part of the excitement about 2012 surrounded the youth movement in KC.   The decision to leave Johnny Giavotella in Omaha and play a platoon of Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz probably wasn’t the key factor that derailed the Royals season, but I would say it was a telling sign of things to come and questionable decisions that would be made by the Royals brass.

Jonathan Broxton's April 11 meltdown is one of the candidates when looking for the reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April 11:  Broxton’s first meltdown, and it was a classic.  Two walks, two hit-by-pitches, two runs scored, Broxton’s first blown save of the year, and the A’s didn’t even need a hit.  This was the first real splash of cold water I experienced following an off-season and Spring filled with hope and expectation.

April 14:  Chris Perez’s Twitter rant and victory over the Royals following an onfield melee.  I believe Perez’s tweet somehow motivated the Indians and demotivated the Royals.  This was just the 3^rd loss in the 12 consecutive loss streak and we all discovered the Royals were apparently a fragile team.  I work with an Indian fan and wow is it annoying when he defends Chris Perez, aka one of the biggest jerks in professional sports.  Here’s what Perez said on Twitter on April 14:

@chrisperez54 Huge team win tonight; time for a sweep to tell the Royals it’s not “Our Time”, it’s#TribeTime. P.S. You hit us, we hit you. Period.

April 24:  The 12^th loss of the 12 game losing streak occurred on April 24.  Many fans will point to this streak and complain that the Royals season ended almost before it began.  I have a difficult time arguing against this rather valid point, but still, the Royals fought back to within 4 games by the halfway mark, so I don’t think the streak completely derailed the season, but it certainly threw a gigantic roadblock in the way.

Eric Hosmer's season long slump is another reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE)

May 16:  Hosmer was under the Mendoza line almost by the time the first week of the season ended.  But most of us thought it was just a rough patch and he would pull out of it by mid-April.  Then we thought he’d be ok by early May, and then we thought for sure by the end of May he’d be swinging the bat well.  We were wrong.  On May 16 in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, Hosmer walked to the plate 7 times and came away with zero hits, ending the game with a .174 average.  Yost took him out of the lineup the next two days.  By this time, we all knew Hosmer’s slump had become more than just a run of bad luck, and more importantly Ned Yost knew it too.  If any of your players goes through a prolonged slump, it negatively affects the team.  But if the team’s presumed star goes through a slump that so far has lasted for more than half the season, it’s extremely difficult for the team to overcome and could be a cause for that team’s playoff hopes to go off the rails.

June 30:  The Royals had climbed to within 4 games of .500 and were starting to open some eyes across the league.  Then without warning… THUD.  The worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins, took both games of a doubleheader from the Royals, and the team hasn’t sniffed .500 ever since.

July 2:  Robinson Cano omits Billy Butler from the home run derby.  I realize that this decision by the liar Cano has nothing to do with the Royals on-field performance, but it says everything about the respect we have across the league – none.  And occasionally, lack of respect can affect your psyche, which impacts your performance, etc., etc.

Which incident do you say was the cause of the Royals season to derail, or do you point to a different event, or a combination of events?  I suppose there are still many games to play during the long baseball season, and as they say, “it’s not over ‘till it’s over.”  But no matter what happens, I know “the Royals will get ‘em next year!”

The Royals lost on Sunday in a fashion that bad teams make a habit of losing: with the same formula they always do. A team came into Kauffman Stadium over the weekend losers of five of their last seven and last in the division standings, only to outplay, out hit, and out execute the home Royals.

Sam Deduno, who might be the only player in baseball whose Baseball Reference page does not come up on the first page of a Google search, anonymously took the mound Sunday with just 21 career innings to his name, and no career victories. He is also 29 years old.

A career journeyman minor leaguer if there ever was one, Deduno is the quintessential “all arm, no feel” pitcher as evident by 15 walks in his 21 career innings in the major leagues, and a 5.1 BB/9 in 780 minor league innings.

He is everything that a Royals offense can’t defeat.

Even though Deduno did walk 3 in his 6 1/3 innings of work, 8 of the 27 batters he faced saw three pitches or less, and 17 of his total pitch count was thrown to Alcides Escobar alone. The Royals offensive approach of “swing first and ask questions later” struck again, and to no shock to anyone, they could only muster a single run against a pitcher who, in eight seasons of professional baseball, had only pitched 15 major league innings.

Every player is entitled to have a bad game. Every team is entitled to have a bad game. It’s when those bad games pile up, when the bad at-bats string together, when the bad seasons stack on top of each without any discernment of where one ended and the next began, that questions need to be asked.

This is year six of the Dayton Moore regime and while all Royals fans can disagree about the how long it takes to get a major league team up and running and playing at least .500 baseball, there should be no argument to the contrary that it shouldn’t take this long. Bad personnel decisions aside – each probably defensible when looked at on their own, but not collectively – after seven drafts, six off seasons, and six trading deadlines, an organization should have at least lucked into a few difference-making players at this point to help push the team’s record to respectability.

But where are they? Joakim Soria was taken in the Rule V draft, and for as much credit as the Royals deserve for drafting him, they deserve just as much credit for not cashing in and selling-high on a borderline useless player for a losing team at the peak of his value. Melky Cabrera performed well but was then traded to San Francisco (a trade I wholeheartedly agreed with), only to perform even better.

There are other solid personnel moves, sure. Mark Teahen for Chris Getz at this point looks like a “win” simply because Getz is still playing baseball (and playing well) and Teahen is not. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Zack Greinke all signed extensions at one point because they wanted to stay with the organization, but those signings felt a little more like effects of circumstance because they were already in uniform.

The Royals are 40-54 and mere percentage points are all that keep them out of last place in one of the worst divisions in baseball. For all negative comments directed at blog posts such as this one, and those on other Royals blog sites, for the piling on the Royals organization for all their wrong turns and missteps, shouldn’t there at some point be an equal amount of negativity directed at the organization that gives us the mountains of material? Shouldn’t there be some responsibility and accountability taken from the organization that, in year six, has yet to play within at least ten games of average?

No. The fans that are upset and desire success for a change are called condescending names like “critical spirit”.

The line of success has been drawn, erased, and drawn again for what must be the third time now. Continually reestablishing the goal line is either the best job security ploy in the history of success, or the greatest sign of futility in the history of business. Either way, it isn’t working.

It shouldn’t be about blame. The time for blame has passed. At this point it is about getting it right. Unfortunately for those currently running the Royals they’ve been saddled with the disappointment and disgust of a franchise that spent two decades in irrelevance before they took their positions. They’re both blessed and burdened for having one of the most engaged fan bases in baseball, so the amount of scrutiny they’re under can border on the ridiculous. But that’s not an excuse.

This, is year six, and while other perennially losing organizations have built and lost, and built again in the same time frame that it’s taken the Royals to not quite build, fans are being told that it’s still going to take just a few more years until the results will actually be tangible. Oof.

This is year six. It is time for results.

The Good

Well, I guess we need to start looking towards the future again, huh?

I don’t often get caught up in the hoopla over draft picks. Perhaps I’m a cynic (don’t roll your eyes) but I’d like to see a young player have at least a year of success before I start to concern myself with whether or not he’s going to be an impact big leaguer.

But when Kyle Zimmer was drafted I was incredibly happy (which for me is saying something) and downright giddy to see how he would translate into pro ball.

Attempts to actually sit down and write something substantial about what it is I like about him have proved fruitless, but Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball summed up all kinds of good stuff at The Hardball Times. In short: oh my.

Arm speed isn’t simply the natural gift that baseball people want you to believe (you can improve and change arm action, significantly), but Zimmer has it in abundance. And the ease with which he creates torque with his trunk by getting down the mound into his kick is beyond impressive.

Zimmer fits the profile: hard thrower and a good athlete with projectable movement skills and body sequencing. He’s everything that could make my pitching heart swoon.

The Bad

For the month of July the Royals are 5-13. Yeah, that’s bad.

Echoing the sentiments from above: teams are allowed to have bad stretches and even bad months. I’m sure there’s a stat out there that gives the number of losing months playoff teams have had in any given year over the past decade, and surely there’s going to be a few on that list. But it’s when the losing months continue to happen without a change in the roster that’s the most concerning. Specifically: right field.

Jeff Francoeur is last in all of baseball among outfielders in wOBA, OBP, RC+, and fWAR.

Read that sentence again.

By almost every objective measure Jeff Francoeur is playing like the worst outfielder in baseball this year. The worst. Meanwhile, Wil Myers slugs his way from ballpark to ballpark in the minor leagues, and the big-league Royals sit 14 games under .500.

This isn’t about leadership anymore with Francoeur, it’s about production. It was a bad mistake to lock up a historically average-at-best player before the market established. It’s an even worse mistake to continue play a player every day that is having such a negative effect on the rest of the team, while a clear replacement is available at no cost.

The idea that there is nowhere to play Myers in Kansas City right now is preposterous. There is a place for him to play, and it’s a pretty obvious one.

The Upcoming

Each of the next four series the Royals play will be against teams that are better than them. Of course, that isn’t saying much when you’re talking about one of the worst records in baseball, but a West Coast road trip scorching hot Anaheim and Seattle, followed by a home stand against Cleveland and Texas, would only seem to make things worse in the win-loss column for Kansas City.

And things can always get worse.

If you don’t know anything about the automobile market in 1985, there’s a good reason for that.  There was nothing to know.  Nobody collects cars built in the 80’s because they were stodgy, slow, and ugly.  The market was starved for something exciting, a vehicle that could rejuvenate the industry.  We all sat on the edge of our seats waiting for the reveal of the new S-Series, a vehicle that you don’t remember and probably have never heard of – for good reason.  Have you ever seen an S-Series model Saturn?  Yuck.  It turned out to be an uninspiring piece of plastic junk.

The huge un-recouped investment in the Saturn Corporation by General Motors and subsequent lack of creative and groundbreaking design dulled all the luster on this once eagerly awaited car company.  And as you know, Saturn is now long gone, relegated to the dust bin of history.

Eric Hosmer may not be as good as we hoped he would be (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

It hurts me to even say this, but what if Eric Hosmer is the Royals’ Saturn Corporation?  The Royals of the past 20 years make a good comparison to the automotive industry of the 1980’s – underperforming, uninspiring, and underwhelming, with little hope of a turnaround.  The fan base has been desperate for any sign of hope and are willing to fall over themselves (me included) when even one prospect appears to have the slightest chance of becoming the next big thing.

We’ve set ourselves up for a potentially huge disappointment with Eric Hosmer.  When was the last time a prospect was so highly anticipated with an expectation that he could potentially turn the club around?  Zack Greinke might be the closest player, but I don’t think anyone expected Zack to elevate the entire team the way we believed Hosmer would impact the organization.

Hosmer was a #1 draft pick, the 3rd player selected in the 2008 draft.  He tore through minor league pitching like Bo Jackson through an Seattle Seahawk defensive backfield.  He carried himself like a veteran with one of the most magnificent and picturesque follow-through swings Royals fans have ever seen.  He had all the makings of a potential Superstar.  Many of us pinned our greatest hopes on him simply because we have been looking for light at the end of the tunnel for so long, even a spark would send us into a frenzy.

Our good looking young first baseman was ranked as the #8 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2011, batted .439 during his 26 game stint in AAA (that is not a misprint), and he impressed nearly everyone with his talent as he made his way toward the majors.  He debuted last year to oohs and ahhs, just the same as the Saturn S-Class did years ago.  But now that we bought our Hosmer sedan, drove him to work and parked him in our driveway every night for a few months, the bloom is beginning to come off the rose and we’re not quite as excited about him as we were a year ago.  I’m beginning to have just a tiny little bit of buyer’s remorse.

Royals fans have been making excuses for Hos for months now.  “He’s just in a sophomore slump, he’ll come out of it”, “as soon as he starts hitting to the opposite field, things will come together for him”, “he makes good contact, his hits are just finding a lot of gloves”, etc., etc.  We’re making excuses because we don’t want to admit that he may not be as good as we’ve hoped, because giving up on Hosmer is tantamount to giving up on the Royals.  Because we’re loyal true-blue fans, we keep waiting, and watching, and hoping for any sign that Hosmer’s bat will find its way again and reignite our passions the way our expectations of his future performance did a few months ago.  Because we love the Royals, this creates a situation where we CAN’T give up on Hosmer.

Let’s be realistic for a moment and say that other players have pulled out of worse sophomore slumps, although I can’t think of any right now.  Even on our own team, Alex Gordon took a few years to find his way and now he’s a strong contributor, although not a Superstar.  And this is really where the problem lies – Eric Hosmer can eventually be a good player, he might even be an All Star (someday, maybe), but because of our high expectations, he’ll end up as a stunning disappointment if he isn’t a Superstar.  Face it, if Hosmer were a newly premiering Fall Television Series, his ratings would have already forced the networks to pull him from the schedule.

So here’s what I think – the race for the 2012 pennant is over.  The winner hasn’t been decided yet, but there can be little doubt that one of the losers will be the Kansas City Royals.  We’re threatening the Twins for last place; Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria will be on the shelf until at least 2013 or later; and the season is more than half over.  Let’s start preparing for next year.  Let’s stop worrying about bruising Hosmer’s psyche and let’s send him to Omaha and let him earn his way back to the majors.  It’s worked for other players, including Alex Gordon, it certainly couldn’t hurt Hosmer.

Let Hosmer spend some quality time with the club’s hitting instructors and see if he can recapture some of the magic he experienced in 2011.  And while they’re at it, maybe they can coach him to stop that stupid swipe-grab he tries to make at first base every time there’s an errant throw.  I’m not sure if he is just putting on a show with this move, or if he honestly thinks it’s a proper way to play a short hop.  It looks very amateurish to me and he’s going to clown-suit himself eventually when one of these throws skips past him and down the right field line.  This technique has burned him at least once this season that I’ve personally witnessed, and will probably come back to bite him and the Royals some day when the game is on the line if he doesn’t stop it.

Eric Hosmer sends a ball over the outfield wall in Spring Training (Credit: Alan Barrington)

I remember sitting in the stands last Spring in Surprise Arizona, eager with anticipation for Eric Hosmer’s at bat.  I even snapped a picture of his flawless swing that resulted in a Cleveland Indian pitch being deposited over the Center Field wall – it was a thing of beauty.  But something happened to Hosmer between that day and the start of the regular season, and the result is that he’s lost his way and he can’t seem to find it again.  Let’s face the facts, and let’s treat him the way we would treat anyone we love – tell him the truth and send him to get help.  It’s either that, or we all need to admit that he may not be as good as we hoped he would be.

Many of the challenges the Royals have faced this year can be attributed to the multitude of injuries that have plagued the team.  The Royals experienced more serious injuries in Spring Training than during all of 2011, and we are only now beginning to see a sliver of light at the end of the tunnel.

The 2012 injury story began with a backup catcher in a noncompetitive situation.  While Manuel Pina wasn’t expected to contribute much to the Royals in 2012 (little did they know they could have used him to open the season after Salvador Perez went down), but on February 22 he torn his meniscus and this injury was the beginning of a long line of devastating setbacks the team has suffered to its roster.

Joakim Soria spoiled Royals fans for several years. (Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE)

On March 13, Salvador Perez twisted his knee resulting in an almost identical injury to Manuel Pina, causing the Royals to lose 2 of their top 3 catchers for the first half of the season.  This roster hole forced the team to pick up Humberto Quintero, Mr. “Catch and Throw,” in a trade with Houston.  “Q” as he was frequently called by teammates was heralded as a great defensive player, although I never personally witnessed any evidence of this, and at bat he performed as you would expect a veteran bench player to perform.  (Lousy.)  So the Royals endured the first half of the season with little to no production from behind the plate.  Fortunately, Salvador returned to the lineup in June, and all is right with the world again.  Well, at least in the catching world.

I was sitting in the stands in Surprise, Arizona on March 18 when Joakim Soria was on the mound and felt a “tug” in his elbow.  He hadn’t pitched well that day and there was an uneasiness in the stands among Royals fans that something was definitely wrong.  We later learned that tug was a warning bell that Soria was going to require Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career, and forced the Royals to use Jonathan “roller coaster” Broxton as their closer.  As many people have accurately said, for the most part Broxton is getting the job done, but few players have caused fans (including me) more angst than he has.  Soria definitely spoiled us.

But Joakim isn’t the only Royals pitcher to go under the knife.  Not that any of us would have been excited to see Blake Wood in Kansas City this year, but he is out for the season with a case of the Tommy John illness.  As is Felipe Paulino – just as he was beginning to prove that possibly all of his potential and “stuff” might translate into solid performances and wins.  It’s sad when your rotation is so weak that you miss Felipe Paulino.  But I miss him, I really really do.

The Royals anxiously await Danny Duffy's recovery from Tommy John surgery (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

It brings a tear to my eye as I remember Danny Duffy exiting the game after throwing only 13 pitches on Mother’s Day.  I think every educated baseball fan immediately knew this meant another key contributor was lost for this season, and possibly beyond.  If you’re wondering, yes, Tommy John strikes again.  Is it contagious?

Not that I’m thrilled to see Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup, and I’m not enamored with Chris Getz either, but when the team is thin at a few positions like second base, you don’t want to see anyone on your roster sitting in the trainer’s room.  Escobar has experienced nagging ankle problems, and Getz has been working through a variety of ailments including bruised ribs and a lower leg lateral strain that have sent both of them up and down so many times that it’s been a guessing game about who will play second base each day.

The Royals started the year strong, winning 2 out of 3 from the heavily favored Angels.  Then on April 10, while winning the 3^rd of their first 5 games of the year, Lorenzo Cain bumped into the Centerfield wall while chasing down a fly ball and suffered what was initially called a “slight pull of the left groin.”  This slight pull turned into a torn hip flexor and an on-again, off-again stay on the disabled list that has kept him out of the Royals lineup ever since.

Salvador Perez blocks the plate, and all is right with the world again. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

The good news is the Royals appear to be healing up.  As mentioned earlier, Salvador Perez has already made an impact in the short time he’s been back on the team, and most Lorenzo Cain is on the verge of making his first appearance in KC this year.

Unfortunately, the team’s pitching woes won’t be corrected anytime soon, but if Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, Joakim Soria, and John Lamb (a Top 20 prospect who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011) needed to sit out a year, it’s much better that it happen this year rather than next.  (Although, I suppose we don’t know for certain when any of them will return.)  In 2013 we expect Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to be in KC, Eric Hosmer’s sophomore slump to be in the rear view mirror, we’ll have Salvador and Lorenzo for the entire season, and the Royals front office will be laser focused on adding a prime arm or two to the rotation through trades or free agency.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the serious injury bug doesn’t visit the Royals again next year.

He’s still seeking a second opinion, but commonly, the UCL is the ligament replaced during Tommy John surgery.

We know all of this already because Paulino is the fourth Royals pitcher to require the procedure after Joakim Soria, Blake Wood and Danny Duffy all went under the knife.

Paulino opened the season on the disabled list with a sore right elbow but was strong when he returned, allowing just seven earned runs in 37.2 innings while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. He looked like he was ready to assume the role of the rotation’s workhorse.

Then in a start against the Twins, he slipped fielding a grounder and landed awkwardly. He was placed on the disabled list again, this time with a groin strain. He made a rehab start in Double A Northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, working three innings. It was assumed that he was near a return to the big leagues.

Instead, it’s another pitcher on the shelf.

That tempers some of the enthusiasm Royals fans were feeling after a strong 7-2 stretch of games that has the team just five games under .500 and 4.5 back of first in the division.

Let me give you an example.  I was recently looking at the Royals team history page and discovered something interesting.  If you review the column of “Top Players” you’ll see a number of recognizable names of athletes that contributed mightily to the success (or relative success) of each specific season.  You’ll find Alex Gordon, Amos Otis, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Beltran, David Cone, Johnny Damon, Kevin Appier, Zack Greinke, John Mayberry, Dan Quisenberry, Willie Wilson, Joakim Soria, etc. and of course George Brett – a veritable who’s who of Royal’s history.  You’ll also see Jose Offerman, Mark Teahen and a couple other mild surprises.

This made me think…  What is, or what should be, the definition of the Top or Best player?  Baseball Reference defines the Top Player as the individual with the highest WAR (Wins Against Replacement) rating of any player on the team.  WAR is a tangible analysis that takes both offense and defense into account, but it doesn’t make any attempt to measure leadership or intangibles, and it seems to favor pitchers slightly in my opinion.

5 time All Star Mike Sweeney was never the best player on the Royals according to Baseball Reference (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Let me give you an example of the lack of leadership skills and intangibles in the WAR calculation.  Remember Mike Sweeney?  There is a lot of mixed opinion about Mike, and deservedly so, yet he put up some dynamite offensive numbers for a few years combined with the ability to hold his own at first base, and he was the undeniable leader of the Royals during his time as Captain.  Yet this 5 time All Star who hit .333 with 144 RBIs, 71 walks, and a league leading 15 HBPs in 2000, and a 2002 season that saw him hit .340, .563 slugging, and 148 OPS+ was never the “Top Player” for the Royals according to Baseball Reference and his WAR rating.  In 2002, that honor went to Paul Byrd.

What do you think of that?  Was Paul Byrd a more important piece of the puzzle for the Royals in 2002 than Mike Sweeney and his .340 batting average? (.340 is 2^nd only to George Brett’s .390 in 1980, and how would you like to have a .340 hitter on the Royals right now?)  In 2002, Paul Byrd was 17-11 with a 3.90 ERA and he led the league with 7 complete games – he was definitely a very valuable pitcher, but I don’t think his performance could be defined as “dominating.”  Paul Byrd appeared in 33 games.  Mike Sweeney played in 126 (less than a full season due to the beginning signs of his many recurring back issues), had the first straight steal of home by a Royal in over 20 years, was named to his 3^rd consecutive All-Star game, led the league in defensive assists by a 1^st baseman – and he was the Captain of the team.  But this wasn’t good enough to be the Royals “Top Player.”

Obviously, my definition of the best player on the team is going to differ from other fans, and from other experts as well.  My subjective definition simply asks, “Who was the player the Royals could least afford to do without?”  In 2002, I believe the answer has to be Mike Sweeney.

Before the 2012 season began, who did you think the Royals’ best player would be this season?  If you’re like most of the rest of us, you may have thought, or at least hoped, it would be Eric Hosmer.  If so, those hopes were dashed weeks ago as we’ve witnessed one of the most dramatic sophomore slumps in recent memory.  A few of you may have predicted Alex Gordon, or maybe Joakim Soria prior to his injury.  Predictions are based on hopes, and as a Royals fan you certainly know that hopes are often dashed.

If you said Billy Butler, you were pretty much on target.  (Although according to WAR rating, Alex Gordon is on top for the second year in a row – I don’t agree in 2012.)  However, I am hesitant to name a DH as the best player citing the same reservations many have for naming a pitcher as MVP.  And unless a Royals pitcher is completely and utterly dominating (see Steve Busby, Dennis Leonard, David Cone, Zach Greinke, or Bret Saberhagen) I have similar misgivings.

For 2013 we have several potential candidates for best player.  I’ll list my nominations below and include the odds that I think I’m right.  And, I’ll also acknowledge that there’s no possible way any reader will agree with me 100%.

Could Mike Moustakas become the best player on the Royals? (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Mike Moustakas:  The improvement Mike has shown from 2011 to 2012 has been nothing short of breathtaking.  He is much more comfortable at the plate this year, and in the field he doesn’t even look like the same player.  I believe Mike’s personality has many leadership qualities and he’s maturing into a presence that will almost certainly make him the best player on the team at some point in his career.  For 2013, I’d say the odds of Mike being the Royals best player, the guy they can least afford to do without, are about 3 to 1.

Eric Hosmer:  Although he hasn’t come close to fulfilling our expectations this year, Hosmer’s potential is so tantalizing that I have to put him near the top of the list.  I believe Eric is just a tweak or two away from “righting the ship” and getting back on track to becoming the offensive powerhouse we all know he can be.  His defense is still solid, but it may take a while for his personality to mature into a true clubhouse big dog.  I’ll put Hosmer’s odds of being the best player in 2013 at 5 to 1.

Alcides Escobar:  If you told me I could only watch one play from each Royals game, I would pick the inevitable web gem that Esky turns in virtually every night.  It is truly a thrill to watch Alcides display his otherworldly defensive skills while protecting the left side of the diamond.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that after watching him for less than two seasons he may not be the absolute best defensive shortstop I’ve ever seen, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone better than him.  Escober is hitting around .290 at a premium position and I believe the only thing that could potentially limit his ability to be a great club house leader are his English language skills.  Alcides is my dark horse candidate for best player in 2013 and he’s my favorite to watch play in 2012.  I’ll put his odds at 10-1.

Jeff Francoeur:  I believe Jeff is the closest thing the 2012 Royals have to a clubhouse leader and his rocket arm and intangibles are great.  Who’s the guy you see chest bumping his team mates every night and cheering them on with one of the most upbeat personalities in the majors?  It’s Frenchy.  Who else tosses baseballs wrapped in $100 bills and gets into hilarious mock disputes with opposing mascots?  Frenchy’s power numbers are way down this year and his average has dipped, so his on-field performance is not trending in the right direction which makes him a risky wager.  I also wouldn’t bet on Jeff being “da man” in 2013 due to the fact that he may not even play in a Royals uniform.   If he is still wearing Royals blue in 2013, I would put Francoeur’s odds at 15-1.

Wil Myers:  At some point in 2012, no matter how hard the Royals brass try to hold him back, he’ll force his way to Kansas City.  And he may light it up offensively when he arrives, but his defense still needs work and there’s almost no way anyone can be a true clubhouse leader in his first or second year.  Odds 30-1.

Billy Butler:  Great DH, one of the best in baseball.  But as I explained earlier, I just don’t think a DH can be the best player.  If a DH is your best player, then your team is in trouble.  Odds 30-1.

Jake Odorizzi:  See “Wil Myers.”  Odds 50-1.

Alex Gordon:  Gold Glove defensive left fielder who has been a disappointment at the plate this year.  He’s a solid contributor and I want him on my team, but he’s not a vocal clubhouse leader and has little chance to be the best player on the team in my rating system.  In 2013, I’d rate him at 50-1.

There are a few other players who have a shot at being the best player, but all of them have significant question marks either because they may not recover from injuries (Joakim Soria and Danny Duffy), they haven’t played in the majors long enough for us to get a good sense of their performance (Salvador Perez), or because Dayton Moore hasn’t traded for them yet or signed them as a free agent (Zach Greinke – hint, hint…)

And don’t get me started about relief pitchers.  Unless you are Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry, or Joakim Soria in his prime, you can’t even be considered the Top Player on the team.  It would be the same as voting the field goal kicker as the top player on an NFL team – it’s not going to happen.

Could Yuniesky Betancourt be the best player? Haha, just kidding! Almost got you, didn't we? (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Yuniesky Betancourt:  I’ll just skip straight to the odds.  10,000,000,000 to 1.  I had to throw him in just for kicks.

The biggest reason we have difficulty selecting the potential top player is because the Royals are so young.  Most of the time I believe that’s a good thing and not a bad thing, but it causes them to be inconsistent as they go through the struggles of figuring out how to succeed in the big leagues, and most of them simply have not matured into the true leaders that they will hopefully one day become.

I still believe that we are two solid starting pitchers away from being a contending team and I’m holding on to hope that we find these hurlers somewhere, either in the farm system, through trades or free agency, before the start of the 2013 season.  When this happens, we’ll find our team playing in October, and this is the time when true clubhouse leadership emerges and performance on the field has a historical impact on your team and your legacy.   When we play in October, that’s when we’ll definitely learn who is the best player on this team.

That puts him out of action for all of 2012 and most of 2013 (though recovery times are shortening).

It turns out that Blake Wood needs the procedure as well. He was shut down in spring training with irritation in his throwing elbow and the first return date was said to be late April. Now, it’s been determined that  he has a tear as well and will go under the knife as well. While Wood wasn’t as vital a part of the pitching staff as Duffy, he has been an average reliever so far as a big leaguer and was showing signs of improvement.

In the last twelve months, the Royals have had four pitchers from the top of their prospect lists or from the big leagues require Tommy John surgery: Duffy, Wood, John Lamb last June and Joakim Soria at the end of spring training.

The Royals have the bullpen arms to sustain the losses of Wood and Soria, but Lamb and Duffy have been two of the top pitching prospects since they signed their bonuses. Lamb is throwing in Arizona now but no timetable for rehab starts has been set.

Meanwhile, Duffy is staying in good spirits and cheering on his team every night. Really, you should follow him on Twitter (@dduffkc23) to witness it.

I was actually sitting in the stands in Surprise on the day when Joakim Soria blew out his elbow.  I didn’t know for sure what was happening before the trainer went to the mound, but after watching him pitch to a couple batters I tweeted to @Ethan_Bryan,  “I can see Soria’s mojo slipping away before my eyes.”

Royals fans are looking forward to having Salvador Perez behind home plate again. (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the darkest days of this young year actually occurred before the season began.  Last March 13 during Spring Training, Salvador Perez got his cleats stuck in the dirt and twisted his knee while warming up starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez.  An MRI revealed Perez had torn his lateral meniscus which required surgery to repair.  It is likely he’ll be out of the lineup until sometime around the All-Star game break.

You may also remember that prior to Salvador Perez’s stint on the DL, Manny Pina suffered a similar injury that has prevented him from getting any playing time this year.  This left the Royals with Brayan Pena as the only healthy major league caliber (stretching the definition of “ML caliber” just a little) catcher in their system.

We heard rumors that the Royals considered several temporary options to fill Salvador’s position, including Ivan Rodriguez who decided to retire last week, but settled on a trade with Houston that has Astros fans feeling pretty good and Royals fans a little uneasy.

To obtain catcher Humberto Quintero, and backup outfielder Jason Bourgeois from Houston (yes, the same Jason Bourgeois that was recently demoted in favor of “one-tool” Jarrod Dyson), the Royals packaged Minor League pitcher Kevin Chapman and the dreaded “player to be named later.”  (PTBNL)  On the surface, this doesn’t seem like a terrible deal for either team, except for the unknown piece of the agreement.  The Astro’s gave up two guys who weren’t going to make their team, in exchange for a decent minor league pitcher from the Royals with potential to eventually become a respectable reliever, plus the ominous PBTNL.

Even the specter of the PBTNL wouldn’t be too worrisome, except for this comment which was Tweeted by Alyson Footer, MLB’s beat reporter and Sr. Director of Social Media for the Astro’s – “I’m getting impression that Chapman is projected to be 7th/8th inn reliever and that the ptbnl is a good one, not just throw-in.”

Humberto Quintero is filling in for Salvador Perez and may become his permanent backup. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

And then during the announcement of the trade, Jeff Luhnow, General Manager of the Astros, stated that the player to be named later would be the key component of the trade.

What are Royals fans supposed to think about this?  While our farm system may still be loaded with talent even after the promotions of Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Duffy, and Cain; few of us believe that we have extra pieces to simply give away in exchange for a temporary player that could be virtually useless in a few weeks – unless he becomes Perez’s permanent backup.  (Cue the ominous movie background music.)

Because Quintero (or “Q” as many call him) has played part-time in the National League, few of us knew much about him upon his arrival in KC.  Dayton Moore told us “Humberto Quintero is a guy we like as a solid catch-and-throw guy and has a lot of experience at the Major League level and gives us the depth that we need at this point.”  You remember DM calling Q a “solid catch-and-throw guy,” right?  So what did you expect when you heard this?  Did you expect the 3^rd most stolen bases allowed? Did you also expect him to be among the leaders in passed balls?  I doubt it.  Considering Q is only a part-time player, these results are not encouraging.

Quintero is batting a semi-respectable .283/.366/.429 (before Tuesday’s game), with zero HR’s, but he has never hit higher than .250 over the past 9 seasons (except 2006 when he only played in 11 games) so I’m certain we can expect to see his numbers regress dramatically soon.  Brayan Pena is hitting just as well as Q right now in nearly every category and no doubt will continue to produce offensively at a higher level than Humberto over the remainder of the season.

Brayan Pena rides the bench most nights while Humberto Quintero starts (Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

I haven’t been a fan of Pena’s defense ever since he failed to block home plate at least twice last year on critical plays, but stats suggest his defense has been just as good as Quintero’s so far this year.  Quintero’s WAR is 0.2, Pena’s is 0.3.   Pena earns $875,000 and Quintero earns $1M.  But more importantly, Quintero cost us a PTBNL.  (I know, I’m harping on the PTBNL thing, but it bothers me so I can’t help it.)

I just don’t understand why we needed Quintero?  Couldn’t we have just picked up almost any journeyman free agent catcher off the street to backup Pena while waiting for Salvador Perez to recover, rather than trade away an unknown PTBNL?

Maybe I’m worried over nothing, but what if the PTBNL is based on playing time?  Quintero is getting the majority of the starts this year (for reasons unknown) and it’s possible that the more games he plays, or more plate appearances he receives will result in us forfeiting a higher caliber prospect.  Why wouldn’t the Royals have announced the terms of the PTBNL?  I’ve always said – if someone purposefully won’t tell you something, it’s because they don’t want you to know.  And why don’t the Royals want us to know?  My guess is that if it was something we’d be happy to hear, they’d tell us.

In my opinion, the Royals didn’t make a good move here.  We gave up prospects to get Quintero which tells me they projected him to be Perez’s permanent backup.  It tells me they believed Quintero is a stronger player than Pena.  It also tells me that once again, they don’t always know what they’re doing.

April hasn’t been so kind to the Royals – again – and all the warm and fuzzies coming into 2012 were quickly dashed after the club thought it to be a good idea to roll off 12 straight losses, and be the first team in a century to lose as many at home to start the season as they did. So, that’s something.

Alex Gordon has stunk. Greg Holland has stunk. Joakim Soria and Salvador Perez got hurt and no one seems to know what to get Millie or Jimmy for their wedding present.

All of that being said it is May, and May means new beginnings in the form of flowers from April showers, or something. And with that hopefully some things will start to turn around for the team like Eric Hosmer’s BABIP or the starting rotations out-making ability. One thing we do know for sure though is Alex Gordon no longer stinks and is back on track to winning the 2012 AL MVP award.

On to the bag: (more…)

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball players are a superstitious lot.  There are some superstitions that almost everyone follows, and there are some that are bizarrely unique.  For those of us who watched Tuesday’s game on TV, we witnessed Alcides Escobar wearing Yuniesky Betancourt’s shoes.  Escobar did have a hit in the game, keeping his average above .300, but the Royals still lost the game.

Some superstitions start at a young age.  Starting in little league, no one dares to step on the chalk foul line on the way on or off the field.  Maybe this is in line with “step-on-a-crack-break-your-mother’s-back” type of thinking.  However, there is always that one guy on the team who always steps on the chalk.  I have yet to observe who the Royals’ line-steppers are.  Maybe they need to work harder at converting others.

Another common superstition is not talking about a no-hitter for fear of jinxing it.  This subject was actually broached on the Royals’ Twitter time-line last week, about five minutes before Luke Hochevar surrendered his first hit of the game.  Rookie mistake.

Baseball players are people of routines and when they find a routine that works—whether it includes shirts, bats, and hats—they stick with it.  (Remember Roy Hobbs and his bat Wonderboy?)  Some players have lucky undershirts or a favorite place to sit on the bench.  Rumor has it Alex Gordon wore the same hat all season last year.  (Maybe he needs to find it for this season?)  These behaviors of routine are then transferred onto the diamond, as players us them to help focus and duplicate previous successful endeavors.

One of my personal favorite superstitions, the rally hat, started with the players and has passed on to us fans.  A rally hat is any hat worn inside-out, upside-down, with the bill pointed to heaven or to the guy behind you or in a multitude of other ways.  (A Royals rally hat is not to be confused with anything that the “royals” from the other side of the ocean wear on their heads.)  Come late innings, the losing team almost always breaks out some kind of rally cap to inspire on-the-field success.

Many players also have their own unique superstitions.

I have heard that when Reggie Jackson signed with the Angels after having multiple successful seasons with the Yankees, that he took his batting helmet with him, having  an Angels’ logo painted over the Yankees logo.

Satchel Paige reportedly had his pitching arm rubbed down with axle grease before every outing.  He believed it helped him to pitch nine innings every time.

Wade Boggs might take the cake as one of the most superstitious players of all time.  He ate chicken before every game and later published a cookbook of all of his chicken recipes.  He woke up at the same time every day (I wonder how that works in different time zones) and always took 150 ground balls during infield practice.  He drew a Hebrew word in the batter’s box meaning “life” before each at bat and would always smooth the dirt in front of him with his left foot while standing at third base.

With the Royals’ losing streak approaching epidemic proportions, many fans have tried to break the slump employing their own superstitions, and I am no exception.  For one game, I tried to comment on everything on Twitter.  The next game, I had a Twitter fast.  (Michael Engel was supposed to join me, but he broke in the seventh inning.  Weak.)  I have participated in L’il Frenchy’s “wear-a-different-Royals-shirt-everyday” and am starting to get strange looks.  I overheard one fan, who is an avid collector of Royals’ autographs, is spending time rearranging his autographed baseballs, trying to find the “right combination.”

What all of this comes down to is simple: we desperately want a win. 

I cannot help but look at the beginning of this season through the lens of Story.  According to best-selling author Donald Miller, a story is simply “a character who wants something and overcomes conflict to get it.”  At the beginning of every story, we are introduced to the protagonist, the leading character.  The first chapters of a book or first scenes of a movie show us the goodness in the character, enabling us to become emotionally attached to this character’s success.  Following the introduction to the character, we catch a glimpse of what it is that the character desires as well as the obstacles that the character must overcome in order to succeed.  The greater the desired object of the character, the more resistance he will face, the more demanding the obstacles he will have to overcome.

Let’s revisit the first few chapters of this year’s Royals story.

In the off-season, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all signed contract extensions.  The slogan of “Our Time” is adopted for the 2012 season.  Even in the middle of football season, people are talking Royals baseball.  The fan base is truly excited, believing that we’ll be surprised and rewarded on the field.

The obstacles start occurring even before the season officially starts.  Manny Pina and Salvador Perez both go down with knee injuries.  Joakim Soria is out for the season with his second Tommy John surgery.  Felipe Paulino has a strained forearm.  Blake Wood has an irritated ulnar nerve.

The season starts, and we quickly fall in love with our character.  The first time through the rotation, the Royals starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Lorenzo Cain impresses us in the field and at the plate.  The Royals’ win their first series against the Angels and come home from their first road trip at .500.  We see the potential.  We believe—Nosotros Creemos.

Round two of the obstacles:  Lorenzo Cain gets injured.  And, as of this writing, a 12-game losing streak.  No wins at home.  Zero statistical luck.  Double plays (and a triple play!) mean that there are runners on base and hard hit baseballs.  They just happen to be hit right at people.  Phenomenal reliever Greg Holland is placed on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his rib cage.  Moments ago, it was released that Cain experienced a “minor setback” in his rehab assignment, further delaying his return to the team.

Once the obstacles start coming, they will not stop until the want of the character is satisfied.  (Think “Lord of the Rings” or “Star Wars” or any good movie.)  This is the critical time for character development.  We learn how the character reacts when nothing goes according to plan, when the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.  In the middle of the pain of the struggle, the character is tested to see if he truly has what it takes to press on and continue to pursue his dream, even without any positive reinforcement.  Will he cave in to resistance or persevere through it?  This is the ultimate question.

If I were in charge of writing the story of this year’s Royals, it would go like this:

Slowly, the Royals will start winning, and slowly the players will return to the team healthy.  By the All-Star break, Cain, Paulino, Holland, and Giavotella will all be in KC and contributing to the team’s success.  The Royals will be in third place in their division, still under .500, but only by a few games.  After the All-Star break, the Royals catch fire, becoming the hottest team in all of baseball.  Perez will return to the lineup to guide the pitching staff into consistent and brilliant performances.  The team that walked through the valleys in April will be able to do no wrong.  And for the first time in decades, the Royals make it into the postseason.

The last time the Royals were in the postseason, I lived in Springfield.  In just a few weeks, I’ll be moving my family back toSpringfieldso my daughters can spend more time with their grandparents.  I’ll willingly join the ranks of the displaced Royals’ fans if this will help the Royals tell a better story this season.

For now, I’ve got my shirt on inside-out, the bill of my hat pointed to heaven, and my autographs arranged in the order of today’s lineup.  It can’t hurt.

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It’s been a fantastically under-marketed last few days around the world of baseball (a total MLB move) but we, as Royals fans, have been waiting for this day for a while now. The offseason is finally over and all the arguing and bickering about just how bad Chris Getz is, the worrying about the injury to Joakim Soria, and the excitement over all the new contracts can be put aside and we can all sit down to watch a game. Phew.

One thing that I started last year on this site was a Live Blog for those that couldn’t watch the games to stop by and enjoy some commentary. (And to try and steal some pageviews.) The same rules apply as last year with the main points still relevant. As I said last year:

“There’s sure to be some hiccups along the way as we, well I, figure out what the heck it is I’m doing here…For now we’ll just roll with the normal blog style that I’ll update with quick thoughts or reactions from the game. Or, in case Mark Gubicza says something really stupid.”

Because I’m in California I don’t get the honor of listening to Rex Hudler eloquent explain what a “piece of cheese” is, or really just hear him try and set baseball back 20 years. Lucky me. However I do get treated to the stylings of whomever the Angels (or as Cardinals fans spell it, “Angles”) are putting on their broadcasts – I’m not optimistic – so if any of you feel so inclined to give me updates on the caliber of the new broadcast tandem for the Royals, please do so.

For now though, this is just a primer. The game doesn’t start for another hour or so and I’m sure there’s quite a bit of pregamming going on. As there should be.

So for now, go grab yourself your favorite cold beverage and fire up your PlayStation for some Home Run Derby on MLB The Show ’12, and I’ll see you back here in an hour.

Oh yeah, and, Happy Baseball Season e’rybody!

9:01 – We’re nearing gametime and, like I said, I have to watch the Angels broadcast. It’s already off to a roaring start as the Joel Goldberg equivalent referred to Jeff Weaver as “Weave”. You know, because that extra syllable is just too much to handle.

9:03 – Broadcast is showing replays of Albert Pujols running onto the field. Everyone lost their minds. These are also the same people that thing Mark Trumbo is good, so I’m skeptical if this Pujols guy is good too.

9:04 – Side note: the lady friend will be joining me tonight during the live blog. She’ll handle when the Royals pitch, mainly, because I don’t what to have to hear the phrase “pitch to contact” when Bruce Chen pitches, which is definitely going to happen. Also, she’s a Giants fan, and is losing her crap right now because they lost. Joy.

9:07 – The Angels bumper graphics cost roughly a third of Pujols yearly salary. I’m guessing.

9:08 – KC car commercials = Chevy and Ford. Orange County car commercials = Lexus and BMW

9:09 – Mark Gubicza swam to the stadium. At least, that’s what I’m guessing by looking at his hair.

9:09 – The Royals lineup is on the screen. My reaction: *swoon*. Eh. Yay. Yay. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

9:10 – Vernon Wells in left. #LOL

9:11 – Mark Trumbo at third. #LOL

9:12 – My Guy Alex pops up. Total regression so far. Total.

9:12 – Another “Weave” reference from the Angels guys. Seriously, don’t these people know I hate stuff like that?

9:14 – “Weave”. #drink

9:15 – Ugh. Well that was an uneventful first inning. Hosmer pops out to Fat Vernon Wells. Royals down in order.

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 1st

9:17- bunt…out

side note: extremely sad Getz isn’t starting. I wonder who the Royals have in the line up to hit ground balls to the infield?

9:19- Chen is throwing strikes. I like that. I also like blue more than i like red, so I am rooting for the Royals tonight.

9:19- Stand up double with an 0-2 count… not great Chen

Albert’s first at bat as an Angel

9:20- strike, ball 2 upstairs, strike 1 ripped foul, ball up

9:22- Albert hits into a double play

Royals 0, Angels 0. End 1st

9:24 – I summarily ridiculed Sara for not bringing the funny that last inning. I apologize, everyone.

9:25 – “Weave”. #drink

9:25 – Country Breakfast goes down meekly and then Jeff IWillCertainlyRegress Francoeur lines out softly to first. This season is off to a promising start.

9:27 – Yuniesky Betancourt is batting. Yuniesky. Betancourt. UGH! Life just isn’t fair sometime.

9:27 – Yuni grounds to Trumbo and third and…you’re kidding me, an error? No way. #LOL

9:28 – Moustakas is up. Now, I’m not a Moustakas fan and never have been, but I’d be okay with a homerun right here.

9:29 – You know, for as much attention as Mike Scioscia gets for being a good manager, he’s really not.

9:31 – After what was really a pretty decent about for Moose, he pops out, weakly. Fantastic.

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 2nd

Sara left the room. She’s not as committed to this venture as she should be

9:34 – Torrriiii Hunter is up. The most overrated player in baseball over the last 20 years. No, I’m not kidding.

9:35 – Hunter grounds out. See, I told you.

9:35 – Fat Vernon Wells is up. Sara is back in the room now. She should probably take over.

9:36 Vernon base hit up the middle. Pulled a change away, it was not a good swing and he is fat.

9:37 – double play

Pena is up, I like Pena, Kevin doesn’t really. But i think that he has a nice complexion and I have a soft spot for catchers.

9:40 Pena base hit. I had a courtesy runner when I was playing. its a cute softball rule that allows the catchers and pitchers to not have to run. Pena could probably use a courtesy runner

9:42 – I get the computer back in time to see My Guy Alex hit. I have concluded swooning.

9:43 – Angels announcers talking about bunting with two on and none out right now with Gordon up. That’s right, folks, it’s 1967 again!

9:44 – Although, I’m sure there’s some kind of nonsense Polk Points for laying down a bunt with in the third inning.

9:45 – My Guy Alex strikes out. “Weave” (#drink) had one helluva sequence there. Damn.

9:46 – You know, Jeff Weaver is not attractive.

9:47 – Lorenzo Cain swings really hard. Somewhere, there’s someone in their 50s complaining that he needs to not “try and kill the ball”. Somewhere, that person would be wrong.

9:48 – And now Cain strikes out. This is super exciting. #OurTime

9:49 – Selfish note: I’ve been retweeted 11 times in the last two days. I’m super popular, or something.

9:49 – And now Hosmer strikes out. Just how they drew it up: bottom two slap their way on, top three all strike out on balls out of the zone. #OurTime #Overreacting

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 3

9:51 – Mark Trumbo #LOL is batting. Who wants to bet he doesn’t walk here?

9:53- Bruce Chen‘s first strike out of the game. I wasn’t watching so I can’t tell you if it was anything good.

a lot of these guys seem like they are putting more effort into chewing their gum then the are making a play or hitting the ball. kind of disgusting.

9:55- #17 foul tip strike out. Back to back strike outs for Mr. Chen.

announcer just said something SO stupid when he was talking about Chen… “for him to be successful he has to stay away from the middle of the plate.” Thanks for that observation.

9:56- base hit to right for Bourjos, I am positive that my best friends special needs cousin has a better swing than him. I wouldn’t have even called it a check swing.

I wonder how many real housewives of Orange County are in the stands tonight?

9:58- Bourjos picked off for out number 3.

Royals 0, Angels 0. End of 3rd

10:01 – Country Breakfast leads off. I’ve drafted Butler in every fantasy league each of the last three years. I haven’t decided it if it’s my own craziness, or his goodness. I’m betting goodness.

10:02 – Maybe not. He popped out. That’s another one. This is super enjoyable so far.

10:02 – Jeff Francoeur tapped on three feet. Angels TV guy tells us that a better feeling than a strikeout. He’s wrong.

10:03 – Also, when Francoeur hits .260 this year with a .300 OBP, will we hear everyone talk about how they were wrong last year when they said he was TEH AWESOME? I’m doubting that.

10:04 – Yuni pops out because he’s Yuni and #thatswhatyunido. Yes, I’m starting this.

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 4th

10:06- Bruce Chen is still pitching. I know its only the 4th inning but it feels like the 12th. But a strike out for Chen brings us to one out in the bottom of the 4th. I am imagining his jaw feels like its the 12 inning too. he is still chomping on that gum.

10:09- Chen strikes out #47 but Pena miss handles the ball and now there is a runner on 1st with Albert P. coming to the plate.

10:10- Albert pops up to 3rd for out #2. I have a problem with the size of Albert’s necklace but we can talk more about that later.

10:15- Hunter lines out to the man that I will never be able to live up to (not that I am a man, just that Kevin loves him more than he will probably ever love me…) Alex Gordon.

Royals 0, Angels 0. End of the 4th

10:19 – Some minor Internet issues caused us to miss the three minutes the Royals were batting. It’s super cool to see the team’s patient, work the count approach, has carried over to 2012. Man, when Dayton Moore says he values on-base percentage, he means, amirite?

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 5th

10:21 – Fat Vernon Wells lead off and grounded out weakly. Somewhere, Mike Trout is raking and being a much better player. Thank you, Tony Reagins.

10:23 – Kendrys Morales flies out to deep right center. No word yet if he hurt himself in celebration of solid contact.

10:24 – Mark Trumbo #LOL is now up.

10:26 – The Angels have interrupted their Mercedes-Benz commercials to bring you a baseball game.

10:26 – Mark Trubmo #LOL pops out to center. Fans loose their minds because the ball went into the air. It was still caught. Still no score.

Royals 0, Angels 0. End of the 5th

10:27 – My Guy Alex is up. Let us all now pause in enjoyment.

10:29 – My Guy Alex strikes out. This has not been a good night for me.

10:29 – So remember when the Royals traded a 9 WAR pitcher and got an all glove shortstop and some other pieces? Yeah, Cain’s not looking so hot tonight. #snapjudgements

10:31 – And Cain strikes out for the third time. This game is moving right along and the Royals have yet to hit a ball hard. Yippee.

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 6th

This whole 3 up 3 down things for the Royals offense is really cramping my bejeweled blitz time. I guess “Weave” is just that good tonight.

10:33- Eye-a-netta is up. pop up to center for out # 1.

10:35- I wonder if Chen gets a new piece of gum in between each inning? Out #2 ground out to second.

10:37- Out #3- pop up to my player of the game Hosmer. This game is pretty boring, but the announcers will just keep calling it a pitchers duel.

Royals 0, Angels 0. End of the 6th

10:40 – The 38th Lexus commercial of the night is just two behind the commercials for Mercedes.

10:41 – Billy Butler leads the Royals 7th.

10:41 – Billy Butler promptly strikes out.

10:42 – Jeff Francoeur has seen two pitches and has yet to swing. I may faint.

10:42 – Well how’s about that. The Royals first hard hit ball of the night is a 2-0 double off the bat of Captain Smiley. Now, let’s take advantage of this, folks.

10:43 – Oh wait, Yuni is up.

10:45 – And, on a 3-0 count, Francoeur is picked off of second base. Ooooof.

10:46 – A foul pop towards Mark Trumbo #LOL is missed. Who’d have thunk it? You know, except everyone?

10:47 – Yuni bloops one into left field. The signing is now justified.

10:47 – Moustakas takes a curveball high for ball one. This is a big spot here. The Angels have the middle of the order due up next inning and Chen is running late into the game. This is a big spot that a supposed superstar needs to come through.

10:49 – Man, and people wonder why I’m not a Moustakas fan. His 1-0 swing was a ball away that he can’t drive. His 2-1 swing was a ball away pull on the ground to second. I really hope he turns into a star, but everything about that swing and approach say he’s going to have a tough time making consistent contact.

(obligatory patriotism segment of the game)

Royals 0, Angels 0. “Good” game. Middle of the 7th

Sara has taken off to make me dinner, cause that’s how this works. (Well that and she’s hungry and I can’t leave the couch.)

10:54 – Aaron Crow enters the game for the Royals. So Chen goes 6 innings and because baseball doesn’t know how to train its pitchers properly, he’s unable to go more than 84 pitches.

10:54 – Dang. Crow goes fastball, slider (nasty) and a 96 mph fastball to strike out Howie Kendrick. Then starts Pujols with a slider and a dirty 2-seamer for 0-2.

10:57 – And then throws a diiirty slider for strike three. Wow. This is impressive.

10:58 – AND THEN starts Torii Hunter with two dirty sliders, and then ties him up with a 96. Strike three. That was one impressive inning. Very.

Royals 0, Angels 0. End 7th

11:02 – The Royals continue their fantastic team hitting approach and have two pitches, two outs. Yes, be aggressive, and never work a count. This style always works. (It doesn’t)

11:02 – My Guy Alex is up. Hopefully something positive happens here.

11:04 – Beans. My Guy Alex strikes out. Again. Jeff Weaver, or “Weave” (#drink), is on tonight.

Royals 0, Angels 0. Bottom 8

There’s still no score and there’s been a total of two balls hit hard tonight. This is baseball at it finest, I guess. This is not, however, Live Blog game watching, at it’s finest.

11:06 – Crow returns in the 8th for his second inning and will start facing Vernon Wells. I’m pretty sure we’ll see a slider here, somewhere.

11:08 – I think, think, Crow threw something without a bend in that at-bat to Wells. Can’t confirm it though. He did hang a slider though and Wells popped out weakly. Who’s shocked, really?

11:09 – Morales singles to right, through the whole, just after the Angels announcers say the Royals have an infield shift on. The ground ball passed to the left of Yuni. #Yunirange #thatswhatyunido

11:10 – Mark Trumbo #LOL lines a fastball middle-middle to center and now there’s something brewing. Uh-oh. First and second, just one out.

11:12 – And, here it comes. Chris Iannetta lines sharply to right but the Angels are afraid of My Guy Alex’s arm. Still not good though, the bases are loaded, one out. Crow comes out now for Greg Holland, who hopefully has the same slider that Crow had in his first inning.

11:14 – Holland comes in and immediately throws 96 mph to Bourjos who’s really quite an awful hitter. No pitch-to-contact here please.

11:16 – A nasty slider for strike two. 0-2 to Bourjos.

11:16 – Holland gets his thumb all over one and pulls a fastball. Ball away. 1-2

11:18 – Holland makes a decent pitch and Bourjos grounds weakly to third. Unfortunately, Moustakas isn’t a good third baseman and can’t make the play and then shields Escobar into a booted ball. A run scores.

11:19 – First ball, fast ball and Erick Aybar triples down the right field line. All three runs score. It’s 4-0 and this game looks just like every other game of the last 15 years.

11:20 – This is why you define roles in your bullpen and stay with them. Crow should have only gone one inning and Holland start a clean 8th — Kendrick is down 1-2.

11:22 – Kendrick strikes out on a good slider. Albert Pujols is up. Royals intentionally walk him. Good decision.

11:23 – Torii Hunter bats now with two outs. Remember how Hunter —

11:25 – Ah crap. Hunter bloops one in because, you know, that whole “pitch to contact” thing always works. 5-0 Angels now. I’m too sad to continue on with this.

11:25 – Vernon Wells is up. Mike Trout should be.

11:27 – Wells pops out. No one is surprised. I’m still sad.

Royals 0, Angels 5. End of the 8th

11:30 – Lorenzo Cain leads off. He’s looked awesome so far tonight. (He hasn’t)

11:31 – Cain grounds out on a fastball down the middle. This game is the same movie I’ve seen a number of times. Sad trombone.

11:32 – I looked away for 25 seconds and Hosmer struck out. He didn’t look good at all doing it. Ooof.

11:32 – Country Breakfast bats. I’d give anything for a hard hit double here.

11:35 – Not so much. Billy flies out to right field. This game was an incredible let down.

Royals lose, 5-0.

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Jonathan Broxton has big shoes to fill. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-US PRESSWIRE

Broxton’s signing this winter was first seen as a way to build a dynamic bullpen with the former All Star in the mix. Perhaps he could return to form as a successful reliever after a year and a half of injury and ineffectiveness. Now, he’s thrown right back into the key spot in the back of a bullpen.

It’s been said a few times, but the bullpen was one area where the Royals were deeper than many teams, so many other players could have stepped into Soria’s role.

Yost said that Broxton’s previous experience is what won him the role. As a Dodger, Broxton had 32 holds in 2008 before taking over as closer. In 2009, he saved 36 of 42 games and struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings in the two years. In 2010, he started the year with a 0.83 ERA through 32.2 innings and had a 48/5 K/BB ratio. On June 27, he threw 48 pitches in an appearance, giving up four runs in one inning. Over the next 29.2 innings pitched including that outing, he had a 7.58 ERA with five blown saves in 11 chances and a 25/23 K/BB ratio. Many blamed Dodgers manager Joe Torre for overuse and he missed most of 2011 with a sore elbow.

Yost says he’s healthy enough to close on consecutive days, though.

Greg Holland is probably going to see some closing opportunities if Broxton can’t go on a given day.

There are a few things at work here, including a reliance to stick with someone who has “closer experience”. Broxton also isn’t likely to see a lot of outings that take him beyond one inning, so that makes it easier for Yost to put him at the back of the bullpen. Holland is also free to come in for appearances to get the last out or two in an inning and stay in for the next one, which should get him more innings, which is favorable since he’s the best reliever on the team now.

Broxton struck out 11 in eight innings of work during spring games, giving up one earned run. On a few occasions he was hitting the upper 90s with his fastball. If he falters, Holland is right there to step in and Kelvin Herrera, who made the cut, or Aaron Crow could get a look as well.

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Is winning games all a team must do to capture the imagination of its fan base?  Winning is obviously extremely important because nothing else matters if you don’t see a big number in the win column.   However, in my opinion, winning or at least the hope of winning is only half the equation.  The other half is based on the emotional investment the fans have in the team and particularly in the players.

I couldn’t be a Yankee fan because as Jerry Seinfeld once said, they’re “rooting for the clothes.”  The Yankees are substantially made up of players who established their careers on other teams.  Mark Teixeira originally from the Rangers, A-Rod originally from the Mariners, Curtis Granderson from the Tigers, Nick Swisher from the A’s, CC Sabathia from the Indians, etc.  With a few notable exceptions (see Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and potentially Robinson Cano), the Yankees are a super star team cobbled together from pieces that became too expensive for other franchises to afford.  They’re mercenaries.  How do you root for mercenaries?  I couldn’t do it.

How did you feel about Joe Montana when he took the Chiefs to the AFC Championship game?  If you’re like me, you jumped out of your seat with every touchdown he threw and cheered for him and the Chiefs at the top of your lungs.  But in your heart, you knew he wasn’t really a Chief – he was a 49er that we borrowed at the end of his career.  It’s fun to cheer for your team when they’re winning, but it’s just not quite exactly the same when you aren’t emotionally invested in the players as well.

The great Royals teams of the 70’s and 80’s instilled an extra dose of pride in the fan base because they were homegrown players.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  Many of these legendary Royals including Amos Otis, John Mayberry, Freddie Patek, Hal McRae and a few others played a handful of games while wearing different uniforms prior to coming to KC.  However, with the possible exception of Darrell Porter and Jim Sundberg, none of them will be remembered for anything other than playing in Royal blue, and white, and a little bit of powder blue.  None of the core players for these great old Royals teams had established themselves in other cities before coming to the Royals.

In 2003, I was just as excited as everyone else when the Royals jumped out to an astounding 9-0 start.  Much of the excitement was due to the fact that their strong performance was unexpected.  The prior year in 2002 the Royals record was 62-100, their first ever 100 loss season.  They had lost 21 of their first 29 games in 2002.  Even the most optimistic Royals fans (myself among them) had very low expectations for 2003.  I rooted hard for their surprising performance to begin the season, but it wasn’t with the same heartfelt fervor as when I was fighting to get a seat in the upper deck of a filled-to-capacity Royals stadium to watch a team stocked with homegrown players back in 1977.  Back in ‘77, we knew this experience was just a taste of what was yet to come.

Now think about who was on the team in 2003.  Carlos Beltran was the only potential perennial All-Star in the group.   Some of us were holding out hope that Mike Sweeney would become the next George Brett, and although he was a very good player, he never completely reached the career potential we all dreamed of.  Sweeney’s annual back injuries, for which he inexplicably refused surgery (maybe it could have been explained, but it was never explained to us, the fans), torpedoed a career that might have made him the 5th or 6th greatest Royal ever, in my opinion.

After Beltran and Sweeney, who did we have?  Carlos Febles, Angel Berroa, Brent Mayne, Ken Harvey, Michael Tucker, Joe Randa, and Raul Ibanez.  Not exactly murderer’s row.  Ibanez turned out well, but we had to claim him off the Mariners’ scrap heap.  Runelvys Hernandez was the opening day pitcher after winning only four games in 2002.  Four games!  Who starts a pitcher on opening day with four career victories?  This roster was much more likely to inspire frustration and disappointment than confidence and optimism for the future.

How many of these guys from the 2003 roster did you dream could be key pieces of a pennant winning ball club?  Please don’t say Angel Berroa.  Joe Randa was a solid player on the downside of his career.  We saw flashes of what Raul Ibanez was to become, but history taught us if he performed well he’d be rewarded with a long-term contract by a team that could afford it – aka not the Royals.  If you believed anyone else on this roster could consistently compete at a high level, you were kidding yourself.  Don’t even think of looking up the list of pitchers we had in 2003, it will make you cry.

We were all excited when the Royals unexpectedly won a bunch of games to begin the 2003 season, but even in the midst of a winning streak when the Royals found themselves in first place, the experience wasn’t everything we wanted it to be.  We wanted to believe that our players had the potential to sustain and even improve their performance over several seasons, we wanted to believe if one or more of our players grew into a super star that we could sign him to a long term contract and prevent him from moving to the coast, and we wanted to believe in the direction the team was heading.  If you’re honest you’ll say that you couldn’t believe any of these things in 2003.  So all you were left with was a quickly fleeting winning record, and that’s not enough.

Today, something is different.  The Royals had a losing record last year and you were still reading about them in the dead of winter, possibly for the first time in your life.  You listened to the sports channel in December to hear the news about the Winter meetings, right in the middle of football season.  You know something is different, don’t you?  You can sense it like all the rest of us.

Salvador Perez blocks the plate and establishes himself as a difference maker for 2012.

A couple of years ago, there was a little spark – some news about a home run hitting high school kid named Moustakas being drafted, and you watched Alex Gordon get moved from 3^rd to the outfield to make room.  You heard another younger kid named Hosmer was hitting the cover off the ball and making a mockery of minor league pitching.  Then you learned that Wil Myers was also being moved to the outfield to make way so some A-ball stud named Salvador Perez could catch.  (And yes, he will catch again.  Probably around the All-Star break.)  The Royals drafted multi-sport star Bubba Starling, and Nebraska boy Alex Gordon shot laser beams all over the park last summer and gunned down nearly everyone who dared challenge his arm.   And the list goes on, as the spark begins to erupt into a roaring fire.

There are many other reasons to love this Royals team, but I think you get my point.  The Royals are trotting out athletes that you believe have potential to play key roles on a championship club, players who haven’t yet reached their potential, players you’ve heard about and rooted for since they were in Rookie league, and players who are either homegrown or didn’t establish themselves on other teams.  (I don’t care if Frenchy played for a few other clubs.  That smile, hustle, and attitude of his are infectious and I think he was a great addition.)

And above all, you believe the club is headed in the right direction.  We’ve stopped signing over-the-hill veterans to fill positions because we had no major league ready talent available.  We signed Billy Butler,  Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, and Salvador Perez to long-term contracts and we have many other players tied up for several years into the future.

I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.  This Royals team is different, and it’s not because they’re winning, because they aren’t winning yet.  It’s because they have the potential to consistently win, because we believe in them, and because we’re emotionally invested in them.  That’s why 2012 feels different.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits an RBI double Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

With opening day looming, I wanted to give a few of my predictions for this season.  This spring has been a roller coaster ride of injuries, disappointment, and excitement and I‘m trying to make some sense on how this season might fare.  There couldn’t have been too many folks predicting that Lorenzo Cain would be one of the best hitters in all of spring training, so that‘s what makes it confusing.  I believe this squad is certainly capable of building off of last year’s second half momentum but a few key injuries could hamper any further progression.  That’s why I think they will contend for a few months but the lack of experience and missing some key players, through injuries, will keep this team at 80 wins for the year, but I think most Royals fans will gladly take an 80 win season.  So, without further ado, here are my top 5 predictions for the season.

My first prediction comes out of the bullpen.  With Joakim Soria out for the year, the Royals will look somewhere else to fill the void of the former All-Star.  I believe Greg Holland will be the guy Ned Yost names as his closer.  While Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton snatch a few saves throughout the season, I predict Greg Holland as the full-time closer as he notches 30 saves.

I’ll stick with pitching for my next prediction.  The rotation won’t be the brightest spot for the team this year, but Luke Hochevar certainly will do his fair share.  Hochevar will continue his spring dominance and carry that into the regular season where he will win 15 games and finish with an ERA under 4.00 for the first time in the majors as a regular starter.

One of the more interesting things to watch will be how last September carries over into this year for Mike Moustakas.  I think we will see more power from Mous, but he still will show some struggles at times at the dish.  I look to see him hit 25 homeruns, which might seem like a lot, but it certainly is attainable for someone who has as much power as he does.  His average, however, will hover around the .260 mark throughout the season.

One thing is certain, I cannot wait to watch Lorenzo Cain roam centerfield at “The K”.  He has hit the cover off the ball this spring and has shown some good pop on top of that.  It is not out of the question that he hits 20 homeruns and finishes one stolen base shy of 20 steals, which is what I have him doing this year.  Just how Melky Cabrera had a very nice spring last year and relayed it into a great year, I think Cain will do the same thing this year for the Royals.

My final prediction is for a guy who has been a steady performer in his first few seasons in the big leagues.  He is always hitting for a good average but has been looked down upon, in the past, for his lack of elite power.  I had always thought it will take him some time to grow into his power, which I think in the second half of last season we saw a glimpse of what he is capable of doing.  I am, of course, talking about “Country Breakfast”, or Billy Butler.  A few more doubles in the past, will now turn into some homers for Butler, this season.  I believe he will hit .331 and finish 3^rd in the American League behind Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano in the batting title race.  Butler will continue to impress people with his consistency and he might even make a case for one of the top right-handed hitters in the game.

These are some of my thoughts and predictions for this season.  I hope everyone enjoyed reading what I think are realistic outcomes for the year and I’d love to hear some of your opinions regarding my predictions or if you have some you’d like to add.  It’s always fun to toss around some ideas on who we think will do what this year.  Oh and by the way, we are only two days away!!

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

August 8, 2011; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

As we are nearing opening day, a few things should start to clear up.  There are some pieces to the puzzle the Royals still have to figure out, and it’s becoming a guessing game for their fans to try and solve as well.  One thing that is certain, is Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz will be platooning at second base to start the season.  This makes me question so many things, and the move has left a sour taste in the mouths of Royals diehards on Twitter .  In no way can this work in the Royals favor.  But I digress, there’s still many other questions to answer.  Who will be the lefty out of the bullpen?  Who will be the number four and five to fill out the rotation?  Also, who will be the next Royals closer in the wake of Joakim Soria needing his second Tommy John surgery?

Jose Mijares, Tim Collins, Everett Teaford, and Tommy Hottovy are all in the race to be the left-handed reliever out of the pen.  Three out of four of these pitchers have spotless ERAs and Collins has still managed a miniscule 1.08 ERA, at this time.  I think Mijares is the lead dog of the pack simply because he was brought in to be the go-to lefty.  Although, the other three guys are making their cases to start the year on the opening day roster as well.  It does seem possible to me, that two of these four could make the team but I would definitely say no more than that.

I don’t know about all of you, but I have been less than impressed by what I’ve seen out of the starters so far this spring.  I want to clarify that I’m aware the Royals aren’t anywhere near the Phillies or Angels in terms of starting pitching, but I was hoping they would be above adequate this spring.  Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza are the only two guys who have pitched extremely well and there is no guarantee Mendoza even makes the team as a starter.  Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino have all underperformed this spring and aren’t doing much to claim their spots in the rotation.  I know not much weight should be put into spring training stats, but the fact that Chen has given up 27 hits in 12 innings is very disheartening.  It would be nice if a few of these guys pitched like they wanted the job.  That being said, Paulino is pitching his way out and Mendoza is pitching his way into the rotation.  I believe Duffy will start out in the rotation and am looking for Sanchez and Chen to bounce back after very rough springs.  I do not think there is room for Paulino, Duffy, or Mendoza out of the bullpen, if that question comes up, as there is an abundance of arms already out there now.

The starting pitching has been a question mark all off season, but one thing we thought was certain, was the closer’s role.  With the news that Joakim Soria will undergo his second Tommy John surgery, the question remains, who will fill his shoes?  I say  Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, and Jonathan Broxton, in that order.  Holland has the dominating stuff and one of the best sliders in the game, so I feel extremely confident with him in the 9th.  Crow was bestowed upon as the closer for a short amount of time last season and Broxton is coming off some elbow issues but is still capable of returning to his former All-Star self.  I would be okay with any of these relievers, but I’m personally pulling for Holland.

We only have a few more weeks, if not sooner, before we get some of the answers to these questions.  Whatever happens though, I’m sure it will make for some great conversations and playful banter.  Either way, Opening Day is less than two weeks away!

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

The Royalmen celebrated the First “podiversary” of the Royalman Report. What once started as two Royals fans trying to organize their thoughts has now turned into this… The best podcast in Kansas City.

To celebrate, we recorded live from Kelly’s Westport Inn (so the crowd is a bit raucous – use headphones when listening) and were joined by dozens of our closest friends in our biggest tweetup yet. During this episode, you’ll hear about tattoos, the burning of Peyton Manning, the Royals closer situation as well as Fat Billy Joel. You’ll hear young Zachary, a Royals fan since 1990 talk about the 5 years he spent in the womb (you really just have to hear how he explains it). You’ll hear from young Michelle, flip cup “dominator”. We also talked to some more knowledgable people in the form of Curtis Kitchen and Dave Darby. And then we balanced that with talking with Jenny and Lance Otto and Laurie “Moose Knuckle” Kunkle. It was a tremendous afternoon and helped accent a great year. Thank you for continuing to listen and help make us the number 1 podcast in Kansas City.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

The optimism is looking a little less enthusiastic right about now. Soria’s out for the year. Salvador Perez is out for half the year. The starting rotation has looked pretty bad in spring training, even everyone’s golden boy Felipe Paulino—wanted to see him shine, felt like he might not, hate being right.

The shine has come off the apple a touch, and the Royals are starting to look a lot like the same team that finished last season—pretty good offense, terrible pitching. Even fan-favorite and potential-filled Danny Duffy was roughed up in his last spring start, no doubt brining on worries that all the talks of mechanical tweaks improving his command were just talk.

But I’ve decided to help boost morale a little. Why? Because I was a little stunned by Duffy. I wasn’t sure how a guy could look as good as he does and still put up bad numbers. I know Luke Hochevar has that problem, but his brain is as fragile as Rush Limbaugh’s grip on reality. Duffy though seems mentally tough. So, I re-watched his last start and saw some things that make me think that Duffy should be ok. I focused on his terrible second inning in which he gave up four runs. Here they are:

• Against the first hitter of the second inning, Duffy dominated. He threw a great 0-1 changeup for a swing-and-miss strike and went right after the hitter 0-2 to get a pop-out in foul territory. Easy and efficient.
• Alex Gordon lost a ball in the sun and essentially gave the Angels an out. It happens in baseball, but it doesn’t make it any easier to hold offenses down. That hitter, Bobby Abreu, eventually doubled to left field on a 3-2 fastball on the outside edge.
• With runners at second and third with one out, Duffy struck out Alberto Callaspo on three pitches. He started four of the first five hitters of the inning out in 0-2 counts. (if Gordon hadn’t lost the ball in the sun this inning would be over)
• Fifth batter of the inning hits a weak looking fly ball to left-center. I was shocked that Gordon didn’t get to it. He reached for it—without diving for some reason—and barely missed it. Two runs came in to score. From there, it falls apart.

If you’re not catching the theme so far, it’s that Duffy had some bad breaks in his last outing. That game could have looked very different if one or two things go his way. I know it’s a pitcher’s job to limit damage when things don’t go his way, but at the same time, a pitcher is going to have a tough luck outing from time to time. Duffy wasn’t wildly inaccurate. He didn’t walk a ton of hitters. He didn’t get hit really hard. He just had some tough breaks.

Actually, I’d say it was a pretty encouraging start. He pitched ahead of many hitters. He used an effective changeup from time to time. He didn’t nibble the way he did last season. It looked like he isn’t afraid of contact so much now. These are the things we want to see from Duffy.

I think he’s headed in the right direction and still expect him to have a much-improved season. Does it mean the Royals rotation problems are solved? No. Paulino hasn’t looked great. Bruce Chen has looked abysmal. Luis Mendoza has looked good, but who knows with him really. But I think Duffy still looks terrific despite some ugly looking numbers. When the season hits, don’t be surprised if he’s looking like the Royals best starting pitcher at times.

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Joakim Soria has been the key member of the Royals bullpen since Octavio Dotel was traded away back in 2007. Since, he’s been an All-Star twice and looked like the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera as the never-wavering elite closer in the game.

His elbow, of course, has other ideas.

Before the worst news was reported, Robert Ford discussed the impact of a Soria injury and how it relates to the construction of the Royals bullpen:

Modern-day bullpens are built backward, from the closer on out, and having instability at the closer’s spot can be a recipe for disaster. If Soria has to miss significant time, the Royals may be able to weather the absence of their closer better than most.

Following the now-standard model of bullpen construction, the Royals need to determine who their closer is going to be to open the season.

Closer Candidates (unscientific estimated likelihood, or, a guess if you will)

Jonathan Broxton (50%): Broxton was, at one point, an elite set up man who inherited the closer’s role with the Dodgers, then had an All-Star 2009 where he struck out better than 13 batters per nine innings and limited teams to less than one baserunner per inning. In 2010, he ran into arm troubles and his performance suffered into last year. His velocity and strikeouts dropped while batters hit him harder, walked more and put up a 5.68 ERA against him. He looked sharp in one spring outing, but in Tuesday’s game, he gave up a few hits and committed an error. My guess is that Ned Yost will cite his “experience as a closer” as a means to setting him up in that role.

Aaron Crow (20%): The Royals officially announced what most everyone knew was going to happen anyway, that Aaron Crow would move back to the bullpen after a half-hearted look at him as a rotation candidate. That’s not so much Crow’s fault, as most of his seven innings have been strong and he’s been striking people out. On Tuesday, he used six pitches to strike out the first two Angels he faced. When Soria struggled last year as the closer, Crow took over the role (technically) though he never ran into a save opportunity while Soria settled down. When called into tight spots in other contexts, though, Crow usually showed the ability to come in and get the out.

He has the typical fastball/slider combination that many late-inning relievers have and both pitches can be strong when he has them going well. He’s prone to a little inconsistency and had bad platoon splits. Right-handers put up a .537 OPS against him. Lefties? .919.

Greg Holland has the stuff, but does he get the opportunity to close? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Greg Holland (20%): There’s a great bit of research over at ESPN about Holland’s slider and his potential as a closer. Unlike Crow, the pitch gives him the opportunity to manhandle left-handed batters who mustered only a .522 OPS against him. Righties were at .519.

He definitely has the stuff to close. At times, it’s downright filthy (hence my continued efforts to call the North Carolina native “Dirty South”). Holland strikes batters out, he was more efficient with his pitches in 2011 than after his 2010 debut, and reaching less three ball counts allowed him to avoid  walks.

The best stat to make his case as the closer is this one: Holland inherited 33 runners last year. Two scored.

So far this spring, he has seven strikeouts in 5.1 innings and no walks. He’s a favorite of the Twitter crowd to snag the closer’s role and with good reason. If the Royals take a progressive approach though, they may use him more like an old school fireman to relieve whenever a threat pops up. If he’s truly the Royals best reliever, his value is best realized in those moments that matter, and not a three run game that most other Royals relievers could close out.

Kelvin Herrera (9%): Herrera is often cited as having “closer stuff”, which is a simple way to say that he has an upper-90s fastball and strong secondary pitches. Against the Dodgers this spring, he struck out four in two innings, using his fastball, a curveball and his changeup to put batters away. With Soria’s injury, he’s more likely to make the team, whereas before he might have ended up in Omaha and been the first pitcher recalled. With many other options, Herrera isn’t likely to be put into the role, but if he pitches well and others struggle, he has his chance to succeed in the role.

The Field (1%): I suppose it’s possible that Louis Coleman or Blake Wood (assuming his elbow soreness isn’t an issue) could get a look if there are concerns or other issues that press them into service. Jeremy Jeffress has shown better control and still has the heat that made him one of the Brewers top prospects. These are longshots to close, but they’ll have a role in Kansas City’s bullpen throughout the year.

The Royals were fortunate to have the depth to handle the potential loss of Soria, so they don’t have to scramble to find someone to close. The arms are there and they can be utilized almost at will. Since most of the bullpen is so young, they have options and can be shuttled to and from Omaha if someone starts to slow from fatigue. Say Jeffress is pitching well in Omaha and Coleman has thrown more innings than were planned. The Royals can swap them out and get a less taxed arm up from the minors for a short stretch then swap them back out if they want to.

Lefties Everett Teaford, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares and Tommy Hottovy can eat up innings as well, depending on which ones make the team (Collins, at 1.50, has the worst ERA of the four, which is a great place to be if spring training stats translate to regular season performance somehow). One of Felipe Paulino or Luis Mendoza will probably be in the bullpen as a long reliever as well while the other is in the rotation.

Losing Soria isn’t the way the Royals would want to go, but they aren’t without options to fill his shoes. I would bet that Broxton will get the first look but if there are any struggles, Holland is the most likely long-term option to finish off games.

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Sep 11, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Joakim Soria (48) pitches to the Seattle Mariners. It may have been his last appearance as a Royal. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

On September 11, 2011, Joakim Soria threw a 2-2 pitch to Miguel Olivo. The ball went into left field for the third out of the game, securing a 2-1 victory for the Royals.

The significance of that event is that it may be the last pitch Soria throws in the regular season as a Royal.

Yesterday, Soria left a game against the Indians with pain in his right elbow. Today he went in for an MRI and the results aren’t good. According to Bob Dutton, the MRI showed damage to Soria’s ulnar collateral ligament (UCL). The UCL is the ligament replaced by Tommy John surgery. Soria will visit Dr. Lewis Yocum to determine if surgery is necessary. Yocum is the same doctor who performed Tommy John surgery on Stephen Strasburg and Royals prospect John Lamb. Soria has already undergone the procedure in 2003.

After 2012, the Royals hold an $8 million option on Joakim Soria. He’ll miss some time this year, even if surgery isn’t necessary, and after last year’s struggles and this spring’s bad numbers, the Royals have to be prepared to put someone else in his place at the back of the bullpen. Because of that, it’s difficult to justify paying $8 million for a player who may not be healthy or effective or pitch in the role that commands such salary.

If Soria misses 2012, the only way he’ll stay a Royal is if both sides can restructure his deal.

The Royals are deep in the bullpen, with Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton as the early favorites to take over the closer’s role if Soria is out. Louis Coleman is a lock to make it and Tim Collins and Jose Mijares are probably the left-handed options. Aaron Crow was a long shot to make the rotation anyway and I think he works as an all purpose reliever and Kelvin Herrera is a popular option to make the team as well. If Soria’s out, the bullpen may have a spot for a swingman, which could end up being whichever of Luis Mendoza or Felipe Paulino doesn’t crack the rotation.

Unlike the loss of Salvador Perez, there isn’t much panic or dread about this injury. No, it’s not good, but the Royals have the depth to fill in, where they’re currently scrambling to find options to replace Perez. A two-time All-Star on the shelf doesn’t help any hope of contention, though.

Results of Soria’s visit should be available tomorrow. Once those are known, the picture will become clearer.

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Is Joakim Soria's sore elbow a sign of the Royals luck running out? Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Royals were fortunate to have a full and healthy team for virtually the entire season. A few pitchers hit the disabled list, but Bruce Chen was the most significant of the bunch. Matt Treanor was the only position player to miss time (if you ignore Jason Kendall who never came off the 60 day DL) and that even led to the eventual call up of Salvador Perez.

Often, such strings of luck snap back – rapidly – to the norm.

Teams always struggle to prevent injuries. Pitch counts are designed to limit the wear on a pitcher’s arm. Catchers routinely get more off days than other players. A small injury usually leads to a day off to play it safe.

Sometimes, though, there’s nothing you can do and the Royals are running into that problem now early in spring training.

First Paulo Orlando and Manuel Pina were hurt. Orlando’s organizational depth so the impact isn’t that great and while the injury (sports hernia) isn’t of the same severity of a torn ACL (not to downplay the injury – a sports hernia can NOT be comfortable for anyone), he should return sometime this season. Pina turned his knee while his cleats were stuck and tore his right meniscus. Surgery repaired the injury and he’ll miss all of spring, but again, the impact wasn’t great at the time because he was projected as the starting catcher in Omaha and it would take injuries at the big league level to have him in Kansas City.

Fast forward to Salvador Perez suffering the same injury (to the other knee) and the problem becomes larger. Perez, understood as the franchise catcher after signing a contract that could keep him in Kansas City until 2019, has a recovery time of 12-14 weeks. He’ll miss about half the season if all goes well. Pina could be of use before then, but now, the Royals have to find someone to fill in with Brayan Pena behind the plate.

Before Perez got hurt, the Royals got a scare from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Both are fine, but there was enough reason to hold both out from playing the field for precautionary reasons.

After this weekend, the Royals ran into what could be two other rough injuries.

Blake Wood was pulled from a game against the Padres in the middle of a batter. He’s supposedly out 10-14 days while the injury is evaluated.

I know what you might be thinking. “It’s just Blake Wood.” True, he doesn’t have the flash that Kelvin Herrera or Greg Holland do, but in 2011, Wood was a perfectly acceptable reliever. A few blown leads here and there in 2010 seem to have stuck in the minds of some fans. With more experience in the big leagues than most of his bullpen mates and coming off of a 3.75 ERA in 2011 (and 8 K/9) over 69.2 innings, Wood was a decent bet to make the team again. Now, after the injury and a bullpen that’s notably crowded, he might not get that chance. The Royals have other options, but the depth is nice.

It’s especially nice after Sunday’s news that Joakim Soria is having soreness in his right elbow as well. After his rough 2011 season, the Royals were hoping for a bounceback year. According to comments to Bob Dutton after Sunday’s game, Soria felt good before the game but felt discomfort after a couple of pitches and left the game.

His comments don’t seem to indicate that he had any pain beforehand, but his performance this spring hasn’t been good to this point. There weren’t any reported injury problems last season while he struggled early on, and he rebounded and had a reasonable stat line. He’s given up ten hits in 3.1 innings, so something’s not right. Robert Ford pointed out that he’s unlike other closers since he doesn’t rely on the velocity other pitchers have and he may not be as fine with his command right now. Soria told Dutton that “I wasn’t finishing my pitches” so perhaps pain held him back.

At any rate, it’s not good.

The Royals will find out more in a few days, but the injury bug may be a theme this season. An unusually healthy year last year isn’t any guarantee that things will regress and they’ll see more injuries or less. As a younger team, they’re probably less likely to get hurt due to less wear and tear. Some may point to a change in training staff and an increased willingness to sit a player rather than having them play through it (which ruined Mike Aviles‘s 2009 season).

There are players with some injury history on this team. Jonathan Broxton was available for the Royals because of his injuries getting him pushed out of Los Angeles. If Soria’s out, he takes a more prominent role in the bullpen. Bruce Chen has suffered a number of injuries over the years and is the oldest player on the team. He’s not a sure bet to stay healthy all year. Alex Gordon‘s run into an injury here or there and Lorenzo Cain sprained his knee in 2009 and missed half his season in the minors and Hosmer and Moustakas have had some small things (Hosmer had a hand injury in 2009 that hasn’t been an issue since, Moose opened 2010 on the DL with a strained oblique).

So nobody’s safe. The Royals have built a system where they’ll leave some players in Omaha who could contribute at the big league level, so they’re equipped if the injury bug starts biting. The best case, of course, is that those moves don’t become necessary.

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July 18, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Louis Coleman (46) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

These numbers just aren’t working out. It’s frustrating me because no matter how bad some of the Royals pitching staff has been, I’d like to keep the ones who have potential. So many of them have potential, but there’s simply not enough room.

Ned Yost has indicated that he would like to carry 12 pitchers and four bench players into the season. That means five starters and seven relievers, but however I slice it, a potentially valuable commodity gets left out. Actually, more than one.

It’s an unusual feeling for Royals fans, to feel like we have too much talent for one roster. I made a comment the other day on Twitter that the 2012 Omaha Storm Chaser bullpen might be the second best bullpen in baseball.

Here’s how it breaks down. I believe the five holdovers from last year’s starting rotation will win their jobs back; that leaves seven spots in the bullpen. Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, and Jose Mijares are all pretty much locked in. That leaves three spots for Aaron Crow (who Yost has indicated will stay in the bullpen if he can’t make the rotation), Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Luis Mendoza, Blake Wood, and Kelvin Herrera. The other candidates seemingly have no shot—and frankly, I don’t think Wood’s got much of a shot either.

Aaron Crow. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Six guys for three spots. Each guy brings something a little different to the table. Collins is another lefty. Crow has great strike out potential. Coleman’s a steady hand with good deception. Mendoza’s got versatility to throw multiple innings and start occasionally. Wood has the power sinker to get ground balls. And Herrera might have the best stuff of all of them. So, who gets left out? And more importantly, what are the ramifications of those decisions.

We have to assume at this point that Crow will get one of the remaining spots. Yost has essentially said as much. He was an All Star in the bullpen, and I think Yost doesn’t want to play with Crow’s confidence by sending him to AAA to work as a starter, which is what I think they should do. At some point, they will have to decide what they have in Crow and give him a chance to be that, whatever it is. If it’s a starter, they have to let him try to be a starter instead of shuffling him back and forth between roles.

Anyway, despite what one lowly, rotund blogger thinks, it looks like the Royals will give one of those bullpen spots to Crow. That leaves two. I’m pretty certain that Yost will want to carry more than one lefty in the pen. That means that as long as Collins isn’t terrible in the spring, he’ll get one of the spots. He was supposedly very effective in the intrasquad matchup, and people are raving about a mechanical adjustment that helped improved his command. We’ll see.

That leaves one spot for three talented pitchers … and Blake Wood (ZING!). Some are not as high on Mendoza as I am (if thinking a guy can excel in a swingman role is being “high” on him). I find value in a pitcher who can move between bullpen and rotation, throw some strikes, keep a team in a game, and who the team doesn’t have to worry about in terms of his future. The Royals can use Mendoza however they want. And he’s out of options, which along with his versatility, is the greatest point in his favor.

I have no answer for who gets the last spot. I don’t think it will be Wood or Herrera because Wood isn’t good enough and both have options. It comes down to Coleman or Mendoza. Coleman pitched very well last year. I like him a lot as a pitcher. But he can’t make a start if the Royals need him to, and he probably can’t take over in the third inning and bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen with three or four innings of work.

On the flip side, Mendoza isn’t as proven as Coleman. Michael Engel wrote a very scathing critique of Mendoza that pointed out his greatest flaw: he doesn’t strike out many hitters. Consequently, his numbers from AAA look a little deceiving. Coleman, on the other hand does strike guys out.

Ultimately, performance in the spring might decide this conundrum. But if all considered pitch well enough, the Royals have to ask themselves some tough questions. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, who fills the long relief role? It could be no one, but that might wear out the bullpen quickly. It could be Crow. But he’s never filled that role before, and they have his future to consider.  Also, he spent the last half-season being pretty ineffective. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, they probably lose Mendoza to the waiver wire.

If they choose Mendoza, they will gamble that he can sustain his performance from last season without the benefit of high strike out numbers.* It’s a pretty risky gamble, made slightly better by the Royals’ good defense. Note please that one of the criticisms of Mendoza is that he won’t be able to maintain his low BABIP from 2011, .268. By contrast, Coleman’s was .246. In fact, looking a little closer at the numbers makes Coleman’s season from last year look a little less shiny (4.30 FIP, 3.92 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9), just like Mendoza.

*I wrote this before Sunday’s game in which Mendoza and Herrera pitched very well.

I’m so torn about this decision, and I don’t even have to make it. Luckily, spring performance should help decide. But I’m going to do the ballsy thing and give my thoughts right now, before seeing a pitch.* If I had the choice to make, and I had to make it right now, I’m taking Mendoza. I think having someone to fill the swingman role is important with such a suspect rotation, and keeping Mendoza gives the Royals the chance to have both pitchers if they need them moving forward—say if Broxton gets traded midseason or someone gets hurt. If Mendoza is ineffective, they can cut him and bring Coleman up without too much damage being done.

*Again, I wrote this before Sunday’s game. Though it wasn’t on television so technically I still haven’t seen a pitch.

Feel free to openly criticize that decision and let me know who you would keep and why.

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May 22, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s safe to say Greg Holland had quite the breakout season last year. There weren’t too many who saw his strong performance coming, possibly no one at all. Throughout the season, I was still having trouble grasping what he was accomplishing on the mound. A quick glance at his 2011 stat line will show just the type of dominance I am talking about. Holland racked up 74 strikeouts in only 60 innings of work, good for an 11.1 K/9 ratio. He notched 5 wins and 4 saves and recorded a miniscule 1.80 ERA. On top of all of those terrific numbers, he only gave up 37 hits and had a remarkable WHIP of 0.933. In my eyes, he clearly had the best season of any Royals pitcher on the staff.

While Holland had a spectacular 2011 campaign, his 2010 season did not go nearly as well. He pitched in 15 games and his ERA approached 7, settling at 6.75. His WHIP was also at an alarming 1.661. He walked 8 guys in 18.2 innings for a 3.9 BB/9 ratio, which isn’t good, but is also a small sample size. However, he wasn’t all that bad in 2010, as he struck out batters at an 11.1 K/9 clip. Even though he would have much rather had a better season, statistically speaking, he still illustrated to everyone how capable he is of dominating batters with his electric fastball and sharp slider.

I got the idea to write about Greg Holland after listening to the Danny Parkins February 22nd pod cast regarding 3 top Royals bloggers, including our own Michael Engel, and their takes on the 2012 Royals. I have not heard much about Holland heading into spring training, which was mentioned by those on the show, and it strikes me as odd. Here is a guy who absolutely tore up the league last year and slammed the door on any team who even thought of starting a rally. Also, it seems Jonathan Broxton has already been anointed as the 8th inning guy, and like those on the pod cast, I was curious as to what exactly warranted this decision. It is early, and certainly anything can change at this point, but it doesn’t seem feasible to grant Broxton the 8th inning. He is coming off September elbow surgery and has a lot to prove. I hope he can regain his former All-Star form, but until he has proved himself, why not go with someone who clearly established himself last year as an elite reliever?

Holland is very capable of becoming a closer in the future. I would be a very strong advocate of this move as it only seems like a matter of time before the Royals end the union between Joakim Soria and the 9th inning. Holland shines in moments where the game is on the line and has displayed the confidence needed to be a shutdown closer. I’ve heard talk of trying him out in the rotation, but I think a guy with only 7 career starts in professional baseball has found a niche in the backend of the bullpen. Why mess with something that seems to be working, right?

He is mainly a two-pitch pitcher and that translates into a very effective reliever when those pitches are dominant. Holland’s slider is one of the most effective sliders in all of baseball and it has even caught the eye of Kings of Kauffman Senior Editor, Michael Engel. Engel also wrote a great piece on Holland last year and nicknamed him “Dirty South” due to his roots in Asheville, North Carolina. You can revisit Engel’s article here.

If you can’t tell by now, I’m very high on Greg Holland. I believe we can count on him to perform very well again this summer, and help solidify the pen if Soria has another rocky year and Broxton is unable to stay healthy.

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Luis Mendoza's may have what it takes to be a key part of the Royals in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Can we all agree on one thing? The Royals’ starting rotation doesn’t have a track record that suggests it will be good in 2012. I know it’s the spring and everyone’s optimistic and hopeful and talking about chips on shoulders and shoulders on chips and so forth, but where I live—reality—this is a mediocre rotation. Do I hope they’ll be great? Sure I do. But a very wise man once said, “Well, you can wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which gets filled first.”

With that in mind, the bullpen looks like it will play a more important role than a bullpen might on a team with a more established rotation. David Lesky of Pine Tar Press had an article this Thursday outlining the importance of Joakim Soria to the bullpen and made a terrific point that the Royals will be in some games where the starter has to come out in the third or fourth inning.

I love the phrase “swing man.” It sounds like the guy is part of an elaborate Danny Ocean style con. The swing man for the Royals this season is going to play a very important role, perhaps more important than any other swing man in the league. Is everyone clear on what a swing man is? A long-relief bullpen guy who occasionally makes a start when needed.

It seems clear the Royals have an offense and bullpen capable of competing but a starting rotation capable of working a drive through window (just to add more chip to the shoulder). Sometimes, they’re going to need a swing man who can not only cover the long bridge from starter to bullpen during short starts, thus saving vital bullpen innings, but also jump in and start when Bruce Chen, or whoever, has to miss a start.

If the Royals want to compete, this pitcher needs to be able to stop the bleeding in a game and give the Royals lineup a fighting chance to get back in the game. He needs to be good enough to win a start here and there, but not so good that he should be in the rotation. He also needs to be someone who may not have a high ceiling but has a decently high floor so the Royals don’t have to worry about foster his talent in the minors. Do the Royals have a guy like that?

Hello Luis Mendoza. For those readers who haven’t heard of Mendoza, he’s a 28-year-old pitcher who burst onto the scene last season in AAA with incredible, if deceiving, numbers. In two starts in September with the big club, he pitched very well, winning both. That said, nearly everyone who thinks and writes about the Royals is in agreement that Mendoza’s 2011 was an anomaly. He doesn’t strike a lot of hitters out. He had never shown that type of promise before 2011, and he had some things really go his way.

That’s not to say that Mendoza isn’t any good. He is good. He just doesn’t miss enough bats to be considered a legitimate starting candidate. But he is perfect as a candidate for the swing man role. He’s got the arm for it—he pitched 158 innings last season. He’s pitched in a relief role before. The Royals don’t have to worry about ruining his potential by putting him in this role because he’s 28. His potential is this role.

If Mendoza struck out more hitters or had a more ridiculously low walk rate—it was decent in 2011 at 3.37 in AAA and 3.07 in the big leagues—he could be seen as a back-end starter. In essence, he’s almost good enough to start, but not quite, which makes him perfect as a swing man. Plus, he’s out of options, which means the Royals have to either keep him in the majors or hope he clears waivers, which he probably won’t.

It’s not just that Mendoza falls short of being a starter. He actually fits the Royals swing man role perfectly. He seems to be a contact pitcher, but doesn’t give up a ton of home runs. If a pitcher does give up too many walks, which Mendoza doesn’t seem to and doesn’t give up too many home runs, all he really needs is good defense behind him and a limited role. The Royals should have a pretty good defense, and with a limited role, Mendoza doesn’t have to be spectacular, just consistently average.

I’ll be very surprised if Mendoza is not the Royals’ swing man on Opening Day, especially because he’s out of options. Of course, I could be wrong about his abilities. Maybe, he’ll get rocked every time out, and the Royals will turn to another swing man—Everett Teaford or Nate Adcock. But if that’s the case, there’s really nothing hurt. Those were starts they were probably going to lose anyway. Ned Yost claims that Mendoza is getting a look as a starting pitcher this spring. I can’t see that happening. But he could be a very valuable resource as a swing man, I’m thinking worth as many as 4 wins when thinking about spot starts, long relief, and saved bullpen innings (not in WAR but just in a general sense of helping the Royals win).

I’ve started the campaign: Mendoza for Swing Man in 2012. We’re not well funded but at least we’re low in numbers as well.

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I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

I was joined by Jeff Parker of Royally Speaking and Dave Lesky of Pine Tar Press. We talked a lot about the starting rotation, the bullpen and expectations for the season.

If you missed the show live, you can find it here on the 610 Sports site.

Soria should keep celebrating with Perez in 2012. (Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

Bob Dutton, as he’s prone to do day in and day out, keeps writing great articles to keep us fans updated on Royals camp in Arizona. There’s always some good stuff to pick up. Yesterday, Dutton posted an article about Joakim Soria that said the Royals had figured out what was up with Soria last season, allowing him to improve as the season went on. New coach Dave Eiland also had some ideas about what was happening with Soria’s delivery.

Basically, it amounted to a concern about Soria’s cutter. As a guy that idolizes Mariano Rivera, as most relievers likely do, that may be hard to solve. But when a cut fastball doesn’t “cut,” there’ll be problems. They suggested that Soria’s cutter was a problem for essentially the first full two months of the season, which eventually led to him losing the closer role after May 30 (for a short time). Eiland also suggested that Soria was rushing his delivery a bit, but I don’t have the numbers (or time) to confirm that one. I just wanted to take a brief look at his cutter in that time compared with 2010 and the rest of 2011 to get an idea of what happened.

In 2010, Soria had a 1.78 ERA in 65.2 innings, compiling 43 saves, 71 strikeouts, 16 walks, and both Cy Young and MVP votes. So, this is an extreme case. Still, though, we can expect his style to be similar to that to find success. In April of 2011, Soria threw 11.2 innings with a 4.63 ERA, five strikeouts, and six walks. In May, 10.1 innings with an 8.71 ERA, 14 strikeouts, and four walks. For the rest of 2011, Soria tossed 38.1 innings with a 2.58 ERA, 41 strikeouts, and seven walks. Wondering about that ridiculous ERA in May? Well, the BABIPs for the four times I listed above were .282, .243, .500, and .294. Hopefully, that makes that May a bit clearer.

Okay, so now that we’ve dispensed with those stats, what can we learn about his cutter in each of those times? Here’s how his cutter fared over each of those spans, the average velocity, and the frequency with which Soria threw cutters:

I think that paints the image that Dutton’s article reveals. Soria’s cutter just dropped in effectiveness, dropping speed slightly and inducing fewer swings. It actually rebounded fairly well, but they didn’t want to return to it since he was successful for the rest of 2011. I don’t know if he lost some confidence in it and started missing the zone in May, but look at the Whiff rates as 2011 went on. They’re actually better than his stellar 2010. And the In Play rates are on par with or better than his 2010. It seems like he just lost it a bit coming out of Spring Training and wasn’t able to right the ship before they shifted him to a different role.

Just to look at the specific movements of the cutter, I want to take a look at the Pitch F/X data for cutter movement in the same time:

This paints a similar picture, to a degree. The vertical and horizontal measurements are in inches, spin angle is in degrees, and the spin rate is RPM. Soria’s cutter just wasn’t cutting as much, essentially. It didn’t have as much spin or as extreme of a spin and basically stopped moving as much as it used to. And the change in movement might also have resulted in fewer strikes, as the above chart showed. It’s interesting that he adapted and rebounded for the rest of 2011 even though his cutter stayed basically the same, but part of that probably has to do with using it less often to the point where batters don’t know when they’ll see it. All I can tell is that Soria’s cutter wasn’t the cutter it used to be, which was likely much of the problem.

Now, whether Eiland’s theory of rushing pitches and “dragging his arm” is correct is hard to examine. But at least this shows that there was some mechanical problem with the pitch itself. It wasn’t moving how Soria likely expected it to or wanted it to, and he therefore used the pitch less. Eiland seems to want to keep Soria doing what he wants to do rather than forcing a plan on him as ex-pitching coach McClure apparently tried to do, so we can all watch to see if that changes anything.

I expect Soria to be back to normal and both Soria and manager Ned Yost seem to feel that way. Whether they get back to the cutter will be an interesting facet to follow this season. I’m sure I’ll have an update once we get a couple months into the season.

Thanks to TexasLeaguers.com for all the Pitch F/X data.

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Expect to keep seeing this quite a bit in 2012. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m going to repeat this once more (and for the last time), so if you’ve seen it before, skip ahead. Dayton Moore and the Royals have been busy this offseason. Not busy looking for starting pitchers and not busy looking for new bats. They’ve been busy finding the pieces to finish up their killer bullpen.

But really, there weren’t a lot of moves to be made. The Royals bullpen only increased by two members, as Jonathan Broxton became the new, well, whatever role he’ll supposedly fill and Jose Mijares became lefty insurance. There were lots of rumors about using the Broxton addition to move Joakim Soria and leave Greg Holland to closing, but that’s all in the past. Right now, we’re barely different than last year’s team. Let’s just get a quick recap of where that team stood in several categories with regards to the rest of the American League:

Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th (4.70)
Wins in Relief: 3rd (26)
Losses in Relief: 13th (26)
Save Percentage: 10th (63%)
Holds: 10th (58)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 2nd (25%)
Games Pitched on Zero Days Rest: 2nd lowest (56)
Average Outs Recorded Per Outing: 1st (3.6)

If you have any questions about those rankings, throw them out in the comments. All I know is this paints a very muddled picture. Was the bullpen good or bad? Was it good or bad as a result of how rough the rotation was? Can we really blame the bullpen when they had quite a bit of work over the course of the year due to that rotation?

What it seems like to me is that they did a respectable job with the hand they were dealt. Manager Ned Yost didn’t overwork them too badly, though the consecutive days stat could be biased a bit toward one or two pitchers. I had no idea that they had done so well with inherited runners, but the fact that they allowed that many runs, compiled that many losses, and blew that many saves makes me reconsider my acclaim at their success. Of course, as the season wore on, young arms got tired and handing the ball to the bullpen became less of a sure thing. Nonetheless, how can we think about this bullpen going into 2012? Are they truly killers?

Well, I pulled out three projection systems for 10 pitchers that could (or should) be a part of the 2012 bullpen. I’ll use ZiPS, Bill James, and RotoChamp to get three different perspectives. And I’ll try to show them in a way that’s not totally confusing, using their 2010 and 2011 lines alongside their projections to get an idea of what we’re seeing.

Let’s start with Joakim Soria because, well, who else do you start with when you think of the Royals’ bullpen?

For the most part, projections show a return to form from 2011 and more of what we expect from Soria. And I see no reason to debate that, as he’s shown us he can stick in there when healthy, so let’s leave it at that. Soria is a stable player for the bullpen.

We’ll turn to Jonathan Broxton next.

Broxton’s going to be an interesting one to watch. After being nails for the Dodgers earlier in his career, he started to falter the last couple, including a bruised elbow that sidelined him for most of 2011. Between that and the move to the AL, it’s hard to get a read on how he’ll perform. All signs point to him being healthy for 2012 and ready to pitch for the Royals, however. And all three projection systems show that in their analysis. While they’re more bullish on Broxton than I am (or than I expected them to be), I think we can expect solid numbers from Broxton. And if he can pitch consistently throughout the season, he could be a crucial piece for close games in late innings.

Greg Holland

Everyone expects a little regression from Holland’s ridiculously good 2011 campaign. His BABIP last season was .250, which is plenty low and offsets the 3.77 he found himself with in 2010. Settling at a midpoint seems like a good idea, and that’s what the projections have done. I expect Holland to sit closer to the RotoChamp projection than the others, however, even though their hits/9 is a little low. Holland will still be a crucial piece of the bullpen, but maybe not quite as amazing as he was last season. The battle between him, Coleman, and Broxton for the “set-up role” will be one that could go all season if Holland doesn’t end up replacing Soria as the closer should Soria get injured.*

*Knock on wood. Every piece of wood. Even Blake Wood.

Blake Wood

I’ll be honest and say that I have no idea what to expect from Wood. He was extremely frustrating to see pitch at times, but surprisingly productive at other times. And I guess that just means we should expect something similar to last year. Every projection system shows some amount of regression, but I’d expect Wood to sit around an ERA of 4 and to be neither great nor horrible, providing solid relief when you least expect it and poor relief when you need outs. This all leans on him making the roster, of course, but he should be a likely candidate unless he spoils it for himself in Spring Training.

Louis Coleman

Coleman was the guy that always made me think he was right there the whole time, just about ready to break free, but restrained by his high home run numbers. He still had an amazing season considering he missed almost a month of the season and will be another important piece of the bullpen in 2012. I would guess he can take a step forward on those home runs numbers while staying roughly constant in every other way. Bill James’ projection seems to be the closest for me, showing exactly that. With a step forward in the home run area for Coleman, the back four righties of the bullpen (Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman) should be a formidable set for opposing lineups to face as they try to rally.

Aaron Crow

For whatever reason, Bill James didn’t project Crow, but it doesn’t matter. I see Crow regressing a bit, sticking closer to his late-season numbers than his initial ones, but he can still be an important part of the bullpen. We have some projection issues here, as RotoChamp saw Crow as a starter, but the numbers are similar nonetheless. I think the ZiPS projection is a bit bearish, but Crow should maintain his strikeouts and potentially his walks as well, staying roughly in the same point as he was last year. Like Coleman, if Crow can cut his home run numbers a bit, he’ll make it into that upper tier of relievers. But he’ll still be a useful arm nonetheless. And if they’re thinking about trying him as a starter, he could become a middle relief sort of guy, as Wood might be the only other useful righty candidate for such a role. The prognosis? Still useful, but maybe less of the early Crow and more of the later Crow.

Kelvin Herrera

I’m really intrigued by Herrera’s chances, as he could either go the Jeremy Jeffress route or he could stick as another strong righty reliever. If you’re counting at home, that would mean the Royals would have seven average-to-great righty relievers in their bullpen, so I don’t know if we can count on them all making it. But Herrera has shown strong numbers in the minors, flashing a 1.60 ERA in 2011 across high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a September call-up to Kansas City. He usually strikes out about 9/9 IP, and while that should continue this year, I expect closer to 8/9 IP. Like Wood, Herrera’s case probably hinges on his Spring Training performance, but his existence alone exhibits why the Royals have a good reason to rely on their deep, deep bullpen.

And on to the lefties.

Tim Collins

Collins will be another interesting one, as he seemed to be fatigued by the time the season ended. He pitched in 68 games, eight more than Soria and 11 more than Crow, which likely contributed to that fatigue. And Yost seemed to be content with (over)using Collins no matter his fatigue. Collins has some legitimate competition in Jose Mijares this Spring Training, with Everett Teaford also available, so the team won’t have to rely on him quite as much. Still, more competition is better than less, and Collins will at least have to perform or be sent down, hopefully keeping the bullpen stocked with a capable left-handed reliever.

Jose Mijares

Mijares is a guy that I vouched for when the Royals signed him. It’s definitely good to try many options, and, as I said above, it gives a bit of insurance and competition for Collins. Mijares was a great reliever for the Twins a few years back, but his weight and other issues led to less use and less productivity as the seasons wore on until Minnesota dropped him this offseason. It’s a good flyer to take on a guy that could be a huge boost should he return to form. And if he doesn’t do that, no harm, no foul. Collins and Teaford, plus Mike Montgomery or other lefty prospects, could fill that role.

Everett Teaford

Teaford’s another guy that got some partial projections as a starter, but he should only exist as a spot starter and mostly as a lefty reliever option. He’ll also have to fight his way onto the roster, and he’s probably less likely to make the roster than Collins and maybe Mijares. I think Teaford was a bit lucky last season, but he’s got the ability to put in about what Bill James’ projection shows when the Royals need him. It’s just another sign of the depth this season.

What we can really take from this, as I’ve said before, is that the Royals have considerably more depth and insurance in their bullpen for 2012 than they did going into 2011. There are more players than can ably contribute when needed, and that should make it easier to keep the bullpen performing all year. As some prospects move forward, there should only be more options, allowing for extreme selectivity going forward. Even though Broxton’s contract is only a year, this all points to the team being prepared for a great bullpen for many, many years as they approach the start of their window of competition.

So, while the bullpen was a great point of strength in 2011, it should be as strong or stronger in 2012 given the number of options and the players’ performance in previous seasons. The projection systems are understandably mixed, but even with some of their lower projections, the bullpen will be solid for this season. Considering how they ranked in some categories last season, there’s room for improvement. And there should be improvement.

Of course, the wild card in all of this is new pitching coach Dave Eiland. He may change the pitching strategies of some younger players, and we’ll have to keep track of any changes in performance or style from 2011 to 2012. Just another thing to keep in mind.

Has Moore built a “killer bullpen” for 2012? Well, yes and no. He didn’t add much to build that bullpen. But it also didn’t need a ton of additions to become a killer. Broxton and Mijares should only add depth in two areas where competition and number of options will only help the team to stay in it throughout 2012. And with a rotation that’s questionable and difficult to project, having a strong bullpen with many potential members can only be a good thing.

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Alex Gordon - A1. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

According to Bob Dutton, the Royals and Alex Gordon appear close to an agreement for a one year deal for 2012 that would avoid an arbitration hearing scheduled for February 16. The Royals suggested a $4.15 million salary for the season while the Gordon camp has set a figure of $5.15 million.

Should the deal become complete, the two sides can continue to negotiate a contract extension.

Reports are that the Royals have tossed out an offer of four years at $30 million. Nate Bukaty tweeted that he heard Gordon and agent Casey Close were asking for six years at $80 million.

This has set off a discussion through the afternoon about what is fair for Gordon. As a former second overall pick and one of the top players in the majors last year, the hope is that he’s finally realizing his potential after three disappointing seasons and one above average year. The Royals offer might be a little low, but the Gordon side is asking a lot based on one season.

Gordon turns 28 years old this week and a six year deal would cover his “prime” years, but runs the risk of committing to a player who might not approach his 2011 season again.

Some fans on Twitter are convinced he could get upwards of $12 million a year. Rany Jazayerli responded to Bukaty with his idea that a four year $38-42 million deal would be fair and left the door open for an option season. Others see that as a comfortable range, as well.

Maybe Gordon can convince the Royals that he’s worth it. It doesn’t hurt to ask. Both sides have the luxury of time, as Gordon isn’t a free agent until after 2013, so the sense of urgency is lessened and the Royals can always make Gordon “prove it” on the field. Gordon can agree to a deal now that can reward him for his great 2011 and guarantee a good check in the future, but perhaps at the expense of a larger deal if he approaches the same performance this year. If he flops again or gets hurt, he might cost himself money. The Royals are in the same boat. If Gordon repeats and is only on a one year deal, he’ll probably get his $12-13 million a year.

Both sides probably benefit most by meeting somewhere in the middle. The Royals can lock up a recognizable, homegrown star and Gordon can cash in on his 2011 season. Wrapping up a deal now also takes the pressure off of Gordon, and many think that a shift to the outfield and the impending arrival of other prospects allowed him to relax. If he doesn’t have to think about an extension all year, he can just play.

Billy Butler‘s extension was for four years at a guaranteed $30 million in January 2011 (which included a $2 million signing bonus). He also has an option for a $12.5 million salary in 2015 (or a $1 million buyout), giving the deal a maximum value of five years and $43.5 million if he meets incentives that would tack on $2 million in the option year. Dutton’s report of a four year $30 million offer doesn’t mention a signing bonus or any option years, but Dayton Moore has added options to Butler’s extension as well as Joakim Soria‘s and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gordon have a couple of option years at the end of a prospective deal.

In 2011 the Royals bullpen finished 9^th in all of baseball with an 8.13 K/9 and did that after throwing a combined 508+ innings, only one of nine teams to amass that high of an inning total. Given that it’s no surprise why Dayton Moore targeted free agent additions Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares in the offseason – if there isn’t any way of getting more innings out of the rotation, then the bullpen needs more arms.

But, if the 2012 season truly is one that the Royals can make a run at the AL Central crown, what bullpen arm is best served to fill the role of closer?

Joakim Soria. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Joakim Soria has long been the subject of trades rumors and rightfully so. On a team that has no real shot at contention, an elite level closer is more of a luxury than a need. It’s been argued in a number of places – most loudly by Greg Schaum – that Soria’s best value to the team is tied more to what he can bring back in a trade than what he provides throwing the ninth inning twice a week. But at this point, is Soria’s value so low that he might not even be the best option to close this year? (more…)

Well, this year’s candidate is Alex Gordon, if you haven’t read the reports on it before. I love Gordon (not as much as Kevin Scobee does, but still). I really enjoyed watching him “break out” in 2011. And I’m fascinated to see how that continues into 2012. There’s just one question that I’m wondering.

How do you know when to give a player an extension?

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With that notion in mind, now seems as good a time as any to break down the 40 man roster and rank them in descending order. I’ll rank the roster based on my expectations for the 2012 season; it is my position that 2011 is old news and therefore will serve as a mere afterthought during this breakdown.

Enjoy.

Royals 40 Man Roster Rankings:

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Will Gordon get a payday? (courtesy of MindaHaas.net)

In the offseason before 2011, Alex Gordon promised to dominate, then went out and did just that, finishing in the top ten in the American League in runs scored, hits, total bases, doubles, offensive WAR, OPS+, times on base…well the whole list is here. He also won the Gold Glove in left field, leading the majors in outfield assists.

The overall production made him the team’s most valuable player last year after many well-documented years of frustration as the former second overall pick finally performed at a level that many expected years ago before injuries and other issues slowed him down.

Gordon is still under arbitration and will get a raise this year. The hunch is that he’ll also get an extension, probably around four years. What would that mean in relation to previous outfielders who have secured extensions over the years, and what price can we guess at with Gordon? There are plenty of examples to look over to get our best guess at those answers.

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Is Joakim Soria on the Trade Block? (AP Photo)

You’ve probably heard the news that some teams have inquired about the availability of Joakim Soria.  Most recently, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox have expressed an interest, there are rumors about the Angels, and there may be others we don’t know about.  It’s obvious the Royals are shopping him around and if you’re like me, you’re both excited and highly concerned about what the Royals might receive in return for him if they pull the trigger on a trade.

While Soria is not yet a candidate for the Hall of Fame, he is arguably one of the top ten Rule 5 draft picks of all-time, he owns career marks of 2.40 ERA / 181 ERA+, 9.7 K/9, 1.043 WHIP (these numbers aren’t from his best season, I’m talking about his entire five year major league career), he averages 37 saves per season, he is a two time All-Star and his name has appeared on Cy Young and MVP ballots.  In other words, he’s pretty stinkin’ good.  Would the Royals seriously consider trading a young, successful pitcher whose best days may still be ahead of him?  Believe it or not, there is precedent for the Royals to do just that. (more…)

The 2012 season cannot start soon enough.

There’s still plenty of offseason to go though, and even though all Royals fans would rather be watching Eric Hosmer‘s first swings of the new year, there’s still plenty of news with the team to talk about. So let’s get to it.

As always if you want to join in on the fun, drop us a line at KoKMailbag@gmail.com, or shoot a tweet to @KingsofKauffman. Now, on to the emails: (more…)

Earlier, reports stated that the Royals would listen to offers involving either Joakim Soria or Greg Holland, with starting pitching being the primary target.

A full afternoon at the winter meetings has popped up a few more rumors concerning the Royals:

• The Royals are one of five teams reportedly interested in Carlos Guillen as a utility player. Guillen has struggled with injuries in recent years, and will be 36 years old on opening day. He has played virtually every position on the diamond and has a career 111 OPS+.
• Gio Gonzalez of Oakland has been mentioned as a potential target for the Royals. There have always been whispers and mentions of Gonzalez as someone the Royals would be interested in, especially on Twitter. Oakland would likely be after prospects for the 26-year-old lefty.
• Another starter that the Royals may be after is Jeremy Guthrie. With a free agent class of pitchers being both highly in demand and somewhat underwhelming, the Royals are more likely to get a pitcher via trade rather than overpay for a starter. Guthrie looks like a right-handed poor man’s Mark Buehrle and could be a fine alternative if the price was right. The Orioles would have to get pitching in return, according to reports.
• In case you’re wondering, former Royals pitcher Jeff Francis is drawing some attention on the market, as well.
• According to Bob Dutton’s chat earlier today, the Royals are looking for another situational left-handed reliever. There are also “no plans – none” to move Joakim Soria to the rotation. He also has a guess of a mid-January contract extension for Alex Gordon in the 4 year/$30 million territory.

While the Royals might not be very active, given that they’re not interested in spending in free agency and have a lot of the lineup set, there aren’t quite the rumors flying like last year’s meetings. Nonetheless, there is interest in Joakim Soria and Greg Holland, particularly from Toronto.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Royals are “downplaying” but would likely move Soria for a starting pitcher and would listen on Holland. The acquisition of Jonathan Broxton and collection of young arms in the bullpen make it easier for the Royals to trade either or both and have little lost in the effectiveness of the bullpen overall.

Rany Jazayerli feels a big trade brewing – he calls it Dayton Radar, or “Daydar”.

Greg Schaum of Pinetar Press thinks that David Lough and Clint Robinson will be traded this week and given an opportunity to play elsewhere. Can’t say that I disagree with that. Both are blocked by better players in the starting lineup or overshadowed by progressing prospects on their way up. He also thinks Jed Lowrie might be a fit, since the Red Sox seem to be shopping him.

Bob Dutton from the KC Star is in Dallas and will have a live chat today at 1 p.m., according to his Twitter feed.

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Let’s check out a few reactions first, then let’s join the crowds as we speculate on what comes next.

First, FanSided’s Joe Soriano at Call to the Pen wrote a piece about the move:

Clipped from: calltothepen.com (share this clip)

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Photo by Chris Williams/Icon SMI

It was announced today by baseball media types that the Royals have signed right-handed reliever Jonathan Broxton to a one-year, $4 million deal with an extra $1 million in incentives based on games pitched. Broxton, a 6’4″, 300-pound 27-year old and former Los Angeles Dodger, just ended a two-year contract that paid him $4 million in 2010 and $7 million in 2011. It was reported that more than ten teams were likely in on Broxton before he signed with Kansas City, so the Royals must have offered something significant – money, a guaranteed spot on the Opening Day roster, or something else – to get him signed. I’ll run through Broxton’s history and the implications for the Royals after the jump.

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We also covered Mike Montgomery‘s chances of success, why Joakim Soria won’t be a starter, Clint Robinson‘s ominous fate, Cheslor Cuthbert, Yeonis Cespedes, Latin American scouting – basically, we cover a lot in the hour.

It’s a different format than usual, as we tried out a new studio and cut out the breaks. What you get is an hour of uninterrupted discussion with one of the best-known baseball writers around. Follow him at @Kevin_Goldstein on Twitter.

Click the embedded player below to listen to this week’s show or you can download the mp3.

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The Royalman Report, LIVE Sundays at 7 pm CST

In the latest Royalman Report, we looked at the Melky Cabrera/Jonathan Sanchez trade and its implications for 2012 and beyond. We also guessed at what moves may be next for the Royals (if any).

We also covered what free agents might be options for the Royals and looked at trade targets. On top of that we discussed the possibility of moving Joakim Soria, the changing trade market as the offseason goes on and Royalman even said he’d welcome Zack Greinke back if it came to it. Breakthrough!

Next week, we’ll have an interview with the newest Royal in the organization and part of the Melky deal, left-handed pitcher Ryan Verdugo. That’ll be November 20th, so check back in then!

Click the embedded player below to listen to this week’s show or you can download the mp3.

If you want your business featured during breaks on the Royalman Report, contact us at 816-394-9578 or email royalmanreport@gmail.com.  

Kelly's in Westport - official sponsor of the Royalman Report

If you’re the type that prefers to see the in-studio video stream…check it out below:

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A couple of days ago, that could may have been true. It may be true right this moment as well. At this point Dayton Moore may have no current aspiration to dig too deeply to find a starter via trade.

That could remain his stance through the whole offseason, if the Royals were in a vacuum and the rest of the league remained unchanged. But today, Jonathan Papelbon has reportedly come to an agreement with the Phillies to be their new closer. Boston, always pressured by the Yankees to keep up in acquiring players, may be looking.

And it happens that the Royals have a darn good trade chip on their roster.

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• The Royals officially chose to retain Joakim Soria.  Technically, they rejected the $750,000 buyout which enacted the $6 million salary for 2012. Soria’s 2011 fell short of his usual expectations, and his 4.03 ERA was the highest of his career and he had stretches where he made every save an adventure. For a week of the season, Aaron Crow was technically deemed the team’s closer. Soria will look to improve on this year’s performance next season, and the Royals have said they intend to use him in spring training in longer outings, similar to how they brought him in after pulling him out of the Rule 5 draft in 2007.
• Bruce Chen is officially a Type B free agent according to the offseason Elias rankings. Chen elected to become a free agent on Sunday. A month ago, we looked at Chen’s tenure with the Royals, where he’s been one of the more consistent pitchers in the organization. Chen has sought a multi-year deal in past offseasons, but has settled to return to the Royals for one year deals the past two winters. As a Type B free agent, if he signs with another team, the Royals will be awarded a draft pick between the first and second rounds in next June’s amateur draft.

For those interested, former Royal Kyle Farnsworth is a Type A free agent after being traded last July to Atlanta and having a strong year as Tampa’s closer for most of the 2011 season. David DeJesus and Yuniesky Betancourt, both of whom were dealt last winter, are officially Type B free agents, as is Wilson Betemit, whom the Royals traded to Detroit in July.

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After a consistent rise through the Royals farm system after signing as a 5th round pick in 2009 out of LSU, Coleman took his 2.16 career minor league ERA to Kansas City with him and produced a successful rookie season.

In 59.2 innings in the big leagues, Coleman’s efforts resulted in a 2.76 ERA and 9.65 K/9. If not for Greg Holland, he may have been the most consistent arm out of the Royals bullpen in 2011.

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