Jeremy established himself as a better than average starter beginning in 2007 at 28 years old.  Every year since then he has been a little above or a little below average without ever standing out.  Last year in Colorado he has his first really bad stretch, but he came to Kansas City and looked fantastic so that at the end of the year he had gotten back to slightly below average:

As you can see, this year has been different.  It is not all that likely that he will end up being 74% better than average for all of 2013 since that number is being skewed by his fantastic start on on Saturday.  Still, he was doing really well in the 5 prior starts as well.  The main difference for him this year has been a little better K rate, a career high ground ball rate, and some luck through low BABIP and high strand rate.  Even with the luck though, he has a career best xFIP and SIERA so far at 4.09 and 4.23, so even the metrics that try to strip out luck are showing a possibility that he is going to be better this year than he has in the past.  What if Guthrie has a career year?  I went and looked what that might look like, and what it might mean for the rest of his contract with the Royals.

The bar I set was a bit lower than that sparkling 174 ERA+ up there since I don’t think Guthrie can keep that up, so I looked for starting pitchers who put up 140 or more after the age of 30 for the first time.  There are quite a few players over the past 50 years who are in this group.  First I will talk about a chunk of the guys from a while ago, and then a look at two more recent players.

The first bunch includes Bob Purkey, Bob Veale, Dick Donovan, Elmer Dessens, Gil Heredia, Mike Morgan, Mike Scott, Rick Reed, Tom Candiotti, Vern Law, and Woody Williams.  If you wanted to hear that Guthrie could morph into an ace at this point of his career, I am going to have to disappoint you.  The guys who figure it out later and become dominant, think Cliff Lee or Randy Johnson, tend to have big breakouts in their late 20s.  This group should not make you uncomfortable about Guthrie’s prospects going forward though.  Most of them had 1 to 4 more decent years as a starter after their career year with a couple of them hanging around usefully until their early 40s.  Only Vern Law fell off a cliff.  He had a great year at 35 and then two bad years before

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) gets the out on Chicago White Sox right fielder Alex Rios (51) trying to steal home in the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

hanging it up.  If Guthrie can be really good for one year, and then give the Royals two more years as an average starting pitcher, then the contract given to him will have been well worth it.

Two more contemporary players really stuck out to me.  The first is Ryan Dempster.  His path is unlike all of the others due to his time in the bullpen.  He went back into the starting rotation at 31 and had a phenomenal year, and has been a consistently good starter since with only one down year in 2011.  A half decade of solid starting pitching.  The other guy is Ted Lilly.  Lilly came up a little younger than Guthrie, but didn’t really establish himself until his late 20s like Jeremy.  Then at 33 Lilly had a really nice year for the Cubs.  His next two seasons he was slightly above then slightly below average.  At 36 he was off to another good start last year before his arm gave out.  He tried to come back this year, but his two starts so far have not been promising.

All of this has made me hopeful for Guthrie’s time in KC.  There is no reason he can’t put together three solid seasons based on history, and we are only going to pay him $25 million for those years.  Typically you have to overspend in the free agent market, but in this case the Royals may have made a very valuable acquisition without needing to.  Of course, the early season returns from Guthrie could also be a mirage, but I really like how he has looked.

This is why I’m not a meteorologist. I was way off.

Guthrie was excellent on Saturday night. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Guthrie cruised all night, working efficiently and relying on a great performance from his defense to record his first career complete game shutout as a big leaguer. Guthrie regularly worked quick innings, and had just 77 pitches through seven innings. He retired the leadoff batter in all nine innings and retired the side in order in six of nine innings, including a stretch of eleven batters in a row after Paul Konerko‘s fourth inning two-out double.

The Royals scored two runs in the bottom of the first on a Lorenzo Cain triple that scored Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer and those two runs were the only scored in the game. Just enough for Guthrie.

Again, he relied on his defense. He struck out just three batters, so the ball was in play all night. Mike Moustakas made a nice barehand play on a Tyler Flowers grounder, then Alcides Escobar made a barehand play of his own to retire Dewayne Wise. Moose later made a nice play in foul territory, running over to the Chicago dugout, leaning over the railing and catching a popup by Wise in the eighth.

Nobody hit the ball hard against Guthrie, but he did run into some trouble in the eighth. Flowers hit a one out single to right before the Wise popout, which was followed by an Alejandro de Aza single in an eight pitch at bat. Ned Yost had Tim Collins and Kelvin Herrera warming up in the bullpen, walked to the mound and had about a two second conversation with Guthrie before returning to the dugout. Guthrie got Jeff Keppinger on a groundout and finished the inning.

He returned in the ninth to an ovation from the Kauffman Stadium crowd and worked a perfect inning, pointing to Salvador Perez immediately after, then getting a Gatorade bath from Moustakas and George Kottaras.

Guthrie has worked 44.2 innings in his last six starts against the White Sox, allowing just two earned runs. That’s a 0.40 ERA. You’ll remember that Guthrie was 6.2 innings into a no-hitter against the White Sox last year in August before a controversial infield hit by Konerko broke it up (and was overruled as an error later, but not before Dayan Viciedo had singled in the eighth). Guthrie has now made 17 starts with the Royals without taking a loss, which is a club record. He had matched Paul Splittorff‘s team record in his last start.

The trio of James Shields, Ervin Santana and Guthrie have worked 119.1 innings now and have a cumulative ERA of 2.48. The Royals are a combined 12-5 when they’ve started this year.

Apr 4, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (11) pitches against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Jeremy Guthrie cruised through six innings against the Chicago White Sox, racking up nine strikeouts against just five hits and one walk surrendered in the 3-1 win.  Adam Dunn and Dayan Viciedo found him particularly tough, as Dunn struck out twice against him and Viciedo struck out three times against Guthrie. Both added one more strikeout before their day was done.

After Guthrie retired the first seven batters, offensive monster Tyler Flowers walked and Gordon Beckham singled, but Guthrie was able to induce a double play to get out of the inning. His only other problem inning came in the fifth when he got two quick outs, then hit Flowers with a pitch and Beckham again singled (both players would reach base everytime they went up to bat today). Alejandro de Aza singled to right to get Flowers home, but Guthrie struck out Jeff Keppinger to end the inning and strand two runners.

The Royals did their damage in the fifth as well. Eric Hosmer worked a seven pitch, one out walk and moved to third on a hit and run single by Jeff Francoeur. Jarrod Dyson hit a chopper to first for an out but it allowed Hosmer to score and Francoeur to reach second base. Chris Getz singled to center and went to second on an error by de Aza (which also allowed Francoeur to score). Alex Gordon doubled to right and brought Getz in and the three runs were all the Royals would need.

Guthrie exited after six innings, but the bullpen held the lead, as Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland worked an inning each to keep the White Sox off the board. Holland had to work himself out of a two out, two on jam but finished the job.

The Royals offense is still a little slow to get in gear after three games, mustering only five hits against Gavin Floyd and Hector Santiago.  In the series, they scored a total of five runs, and two of those went unearned due to errors. The White Sox outfield committed three errors in the series to help the Royals out.

After two early losses, there was a lot of frustration among many Royals fans. The offense left runners on in the first two games, and with a couple of breaks, could have won all three games. Say Billy Butler gets a hit in the third inning on Monday, maybe two runs score and the Royals get the win. Maybe Alex Gordon is one foot more to his left while scaling the left field wall to try for what would become a Viciedo homer and it’s an out instead – that makes it a 3-2 game and now it’s not as comfortable for Chicago.

But the Royals didn’t get those breaks and two early losses (even against Cy Young caliber pitchers) caused much teeth-gnashing. Ideally, a win calms the masses down a bit from a collective panic. The Royals won’t win every game. There are plenty who don’t think they’ll win half of their games. There are holes on this team, but not as many as in the past. If the team’s still dropping two out of three every series into May, then doom and gloom is warranted. Not now.

We’ll see if the win inspires the Royals to National League success, as they head to Philadelphia for a three game series. Wade Davis makes his Royals debut against Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies in the first game.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I happened to watch the Spring Training game against the Chicago White Sox earlier today, and found myself taking a lot of positives from it. I thought I’d share some thoughts about the game that seem significant to me:

I’m happy with where Jeremy Guthrie is. I was worried for a while. He looked pretty bad in his first few outings of the spring. He couldn’t locate. His fastball didn’t seem to have much zip or movement. Essentially, he looked like his Colorado self (in terms of results anyway).

Today, though, he looked like the Guthrie that made the Royals eager to give him $25 million in the offseason. He made one mistake in the fifth and gave up a homer, but other than that, he was very clean. The run he gave up in the first inning was a fluke—contingent on a soft bloop to left field on a good pitch and a hit that would have been fielded but instead ricocheted off third base. His secondary pitches looked deadly today, and his fastball had some life. Most importantly, he located.

Alcides Escobar looks ready to go. Like Guthrie, Escobar looked a little lost to start the spring. He was fighting some back spasms for a few days and looked a little pull happy early in the spring. Consequently, it looked like he might fulfill the prophecy of regression many have set for him or perhaps dip even further than most are predicting.

But against the White Sox, Escobar stayed focused up the middle and to right field. He had a nice line-drive base hit up the middle and lined out to second once. That’s what he needs to do, drive the ball to right and right center. Pull inside fastball when necessary. I’m still waiting for him to lay a few down successfully. That was a big part of his game last year—bunting for base hits—and I haven’t seen him do it much (though I haven’t been able to watch most of the games). If he can once again enact the identity of a number two hitter, he will be a very good number two hitter. Makes sense, right?

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

This might kill me to write, but Jeff Francoeur isn’t looking terrible lately. I watched the game against Anaheim the other day and thought Hmmm, Francoeur’s swing looks shorter than usual. In that game he absolutely CRUSHED a ball over the batter’s eye in center field. Against the White Sox today, he had two doubles, both hit very sharply with good, tight swings (that is, good for Francoeur; he’ll never be Albert Pujols). I’ve been a staunch opponent of starting Francoeur in right field, and I’m of the belief that whatever is working for him now is probably fleeting. But if he has to be the starting right fielder for the Royals, I’d rather he be playing well than playing poorly.

Interestingly, this swing seems to allow Francoeur not only to hit the ball more but to foul pitches away as well. He’s always going to swing at whatever is thrown, but if he can foul off the pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at instead of missing them, he’ll give himself more chances to put balls in play.

Alex Gordon is flat out destroying the ball. It is Spring Training, and the White Sox used minor league pitching against the Royals, but Gordon is having terrific at-bats. He’s piling up extra-base hits (including home runs) and doesn’t seem fooled by what any pitcher is doing (major league or otherwise). If he carries this over into the season, the Royals will have a serious weapon at the top of their lineup, and Gordon will force himself into the All-Star game where he should have been in the last two seasons (2011 for sure).

Hawk Harrelson is a terrible play-by-play guy (the game was on MLB.tv via the White Sox Broadcast).

I realize that these are all positive (except for the last one). Maybe that’s because the game went pretty well; maybe it’s because I’m getting more and more optimistic as the season approaches. I don’t know. Right now, the Royals look ready to put their best foot forward to start the regular season.  Let’s hope nothing changes that over the course of the next week.

• Jeremy Guthrie signed a three-year, $25 million contract to return to the Royals.
• A lot of people weren’t impressed.

Those who dislike the deal don’t see Guthrie recreating his Kansas City performance and reverting – at least – back to the pitcher he’d always been with Baltimore, a generally average pitcher with occasional strong seasons and at worst blowing up as a pitcher in his mid-30s is prone to do.

Aug 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

My take is that if Guthrie is the only improvement beyond trading for Ervin Santana that the Royals make this offseason, then the signing is suspect. I recognize the age concerns for Guthrie and his best production other than as a Royal last summer happened in his late-20s. He’s got a track record of durability, throwing at least 175 innings every season starting in 2007. His strikeout rates and walkrates have been fairly consistent each year with no significant regression or control issues. His velocity has stayed consistent as well.

If the Royals add another pitcher who pushes Guthrie out of the Opening Day start, I don’t see a problem with the signing. Many are upset about the third year in the deal, and he’ll be 36 when the third year starts.

But here’s a question – if the Royals are supposed to improve the rotation, and Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino are hurt, Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Chris Dwyer aren’t ready, Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer still need more experience and the Royals also shouldn’t trade a hitter for a frontline pitcher, then where are they supposed to get help for the rotation?

I went off the the list compiled by MLB Trade Rumors to see which other starting pitchers were available who the Royals might have signed. I looked at the last five seasons for all options and considered how many innings they’d thrown (with the idea that more innings suggests that they’re durable and have been less injury-prone), their WAR (as calculated by Baseball-Reference) and their ERA+ (to consider who was above league average or not). I also looked at the average salaries over that five year period just for an idea of who might be looking for bigger deals as free agents (though with the understanding that some are past the point where they can ask for similar contracts that they’ve just completed).

Here are the options who have logged more than 900 innings over the last five seasons who were above average (ERA+ of 100 or more) and had 10 or more WAR (a nice average of 2.0 WAR or better per season):

• Dan Haren – 1095.1 innings, 18.3 WAR, 117 ERA+ – he’ll be 32 when the 2013 season starts
• Zack Greinke – 1035.2 innings, 23 WAR, 123 ERA+
• Ryan Dempster – 997.1 innings, 16.4 WAR, 114 ERA+ – he’ll turn 36 during the 2013 season
• Edwin Jackson – 996 innings, 12.1 WAR, 105 ERA+
• Jeremy Guthrie – 989.2 innings, 12.4 WAR, 101 ERA+

Greinke is going to cost too much for the Royals to bring him back. Dempster has a better track record than Guthrie, but is already older than Guthrie will be when his third season starts and will probably need a bigger contract. Haren has enough questions about his health that it caused the Cubs to balk at trading for him last month, but he might still be an option if the Royals think they have the payroll to sign him. Guthrie’s 2013 salary of $5 million might permit them to get Haren on a one year deal to see if he’s healthy. Jackson’s a longshot still and didn’t seem interested in signing in Kansas City last season. Not much has changed that would change his mind.

Other options out there include Sanchez (106 ERA+ since 2008), but he’s going to be the second biggest pitching contract this offseason and the Royals are stubbornly not pursuing a big money pitcher. Shaun Marcum might be a good signing, but he has injury concerns that they can’t bank on. Kyle Lohse (5.7 WAR in 809 innings, 101 ERA+) isn’t much better in the last five years than Guthrie and is going to be much more pricey and not any younger. That isn’t any good.

The other options would be iffy propositions at best. Players with recent or long-term injury problems (Roy Oswalt, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Brandon McCarthy), players who are well past their prime (Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood, Carl Pavano), or players who are just going to cost too much for the marginal production they’d provide (Daisuke Matsuzaka, Carlos Zambrano).

Two pitchers intrigued me in this project, though. Joe Blanton has under-performed his peripheral stats in the last three seasons (his ERA has been 4.82, 5.01 and 4.71 in the last three seasons, but his xFIP was 3.87, 3.15 and 3.39 in each season, respectively), and surpassed 175 innings in every season but 2011 since being a regular big leaguer. In 2011, he had some elbow problems, but there was no structural damage. He’ll turn 32 in just over two weeks.

Another dark horse option is Joe Saunders. He’s been a steady but unspectacular pitcher for the Angels and Diamondbacks throughout his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot (5.1 K/9 career rate) but doesn’t walk a lot either (2.7 BB/9). He’s very much like a left-handed Jeremy Guthrie in that regard. He’ll turn 32 in the June. He could possibly have been a more affordable signing, but he’s not a difference maker either.

Frankly, there weren’t a lot of great options out there. The pitchers who can make a significant impact are ones who will cost too much or have other questions marks. By signing Guthrie, did the Royals push themselves out of an opportunity to sign Sanchez or Greinke? I don’t think so, as they weren’t going to sign either by most assumptions anyway. Guthrie’s salary for 2013 doesn’t price them out of signing a speculative pitcher like Marcum or Haren if they can get an agreement (and probably non-tender Luke Hochevar and save whatever arbitration figure he’d command).

Maybe they miss out on Edwin Jackson as a result, but he’d be a larger commitment – either in years or dollars – than Guthrie. He’s younger and could still have upside over Guthrie. Until someone out of the Royals starting pitching prospects – Jake Odorizzi, Montgomery, Zimmer, Ventura, et al – step up to be ready to lead a staff, these are the kind of deals Kansas City has to make.

Think of it like this – did the Royals get worse by signing Guthrie? Would a rotation of Santana, Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Bruce Chen and Will Smith be better than one of say, Guthrie, Santana, Mendoza, Chen and Smith? Doubtful. If the Royals trade for another pitcher and get a James Shields to lead the rotation, shifting everyone one slot down in the pecking order starts to look reasonable. Guthrie’s not a perfect signing, but within other moves to come and based on what was available, he’s hardly the worst we’ll see in baseball this offseason. The Royals paid market value for a league-average pitcher who can chew up 200 innings. What’s the harm in that?

• Can Jonathan Sanchez discover his pre-2011 form?
• Can Luke Hochevar carry over a great second half into 2012?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Danny Duffy take a John Danks type step in his second season?
• Can Felipe Paulino prove that his 2011 season was legit?

The bottom two questions never got answered thanks to injuries but the answers to the first three were no, no and no. But you know all this and really don’t care to be reminded of the 2012 rotation’s historical mediocrity. I don’t blame you, but moving forward, we see not a lot has changed.

The 2013 rotation, barring a trade, is basically set and the question marks that existed before 2012 are still there.

• Can Ervin Santana discover his pre-2012 form?
• Can Jeremy Guthrie carry over a great second half into 2013?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Luis Mendoza prove that his 2012 season was legit?

Eerie, isn’t it.

I haven’t really declared one way or another my opinions on the Santana and Guthrie deals. That’s because I keep flip flopping on whether I like them or not. There are reasons to like and dislike both of these moves. Santana and Guthrie will be paid  a combined 37 million dollars over the next three seasons and I just can’t help but wondering if that money should have gone to a more elite starting pitcher.

September 7, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Once again Dayton Moore jumped in with both feet before the market had a chance to set itself. Craig Brown is spot on when he discusses why this is “ultimately a flawed strategy“. Criticize Craig’s negativity if you must but he predicted that Sanchez would be train wreck when a lot of people (myself included) were cautiously optimistic.

The flip side, of course, is that you can throw all the money you want at free agents but you can’t make them pick it up. If Moore waits too long then he could miss out altogether and we’d be forced to watch a rotation that contained both Hochevar and Chris Volstad. I don’t know about you but I had nightmares about such a scenario.

Again, there are reasons to like and dislike the two deals. Santana and Guthrie have decent track records so it wouldn’t come as a great shock if both put up 200 inning, 110 ERA+ seasons. If that happens I expect the Royals to flirt with contention. Of course that’s contingent on the offense remembering how to hit, which I believe they will.

As for the last two questions above, I’m more optimistic that Chen will approach league average than Mendoza, and I base that solely on their respective SO/BB numbers. I like what Mendoza accomplished when he re-entered the rotation (122.1 IP, 3.83 ERA) but I’m not sure he can do that over the course of a full season. As of right now though, I have no problem with him occupying the rotation’s fourth or fifth spot.

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Guthrie made 14 starts with Kansas City last year after they’d traded Jonathan Sanchez for him. In 91 innings, he had a 3.16 ERA. He’d been said to be looking for a three year deal, though most thought he’d get a two year deal with an option year from some team.

Guthrie had also recently changed agents, so that may have impacted the quick signing. He seemed to want to test the market, but must have gotten the offer he wanted in a city he wants to pitch in. This signing also adds Guthrie to the 40 man roster, creating one more spot that the Royals must clear as they set their reserve lists before the Rule 5 draft next month. This could also signal the end of Luke Hochevar‘s run as a Royal if they decide to non-tender him.

Bob Dutton reported that the deal breaks down to pay Guthrie $5 million in 2013, $11 million in 2014 and $9 million in 2015.

Also interesting, before any official announcement from the Royals, Guthrie tipped everyone off to his decision, tweeting about the signing:

3 more years in Kansas City! I couldn’t be more pleased & excited! Thanks to the Royals & all the great fans for your support.

Guthrie is one of a handful of big leaguers who is taking part in the European Big League Tour who will be conducting clinics with European youth with interest in baseball.

Prior to the EBLT, though, Guthrie had already visited Spain, where, among other things, he learned to fight bulls with the aid of Tomás Campuzano & Agustín de Espartinas. He also stopped to look at the 2,000 year old Roman aqueducts in Segovia, Spain. And, as it turned out, he came across some kids who were playing a bit of baseball.

Wouldn’t you know it, they are playing a little baseball in Spain as well! #MadridLeagueBaseball twitter.com/TheRealJGuts/s…

— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) October 16, 2012

On the EBLT, the group landed in Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Guthrie is currently joined by Alex Liddi of the Mariners, Chris Dickerson, currently in the Yankees organization, Rick Van den Hurk of the Pirates and Roger Bernadina of the Nationals. They’ve taken in a soccer match, admired the extensive use of bicycles (Guthrie is a biking enthusiast and bikes are extremely popular in Holland). He even did a little shopping – or at least helped Dickerson do some shopping.

With the shopping guru @therealjguts getting swanky for tonight’s dinner. #deBijenkorf say.ly/PDz4y7R

— Chris Dickerson (@CDickerson_PFTP) November 9, 2012

Apparently, he also spent a lot of time answering questions.

And that was just the first leg of the tour. Guthrie et al are now in London until the 18th. Guthrie has discovered that London has Chipotle and also made a pretty awful pun (which is redundant).

TOP 10 things I DID & DID NOT expect to see while in London: 10.DID NOT expect to see & eat @ my fav @chipotletweets! twitter.com/TheRealJGuts/s…

— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) November 13, 2012

After the 18th, though, it’s back to reality. Guthrie won’t be wandering Europe anymore and it’ll be time to negotiate. With the Royals very much out of the Zack Greinke race. Anibal Sanchez may be out of their range as well, unless other teams balk at his asking price. Guthrie still looks like a good option for the Royals, even if he’s not the ace we’d all like to see. But he’d be effective.

And hey, Kansas City does have multiple Chipotle franchises as well as a recently implemented bicycle sharing program. That has to count for something, right? No aqueducts, however (but there are plenty of fountains…).

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

That’s relevant to the Royals in two ways. First, it takes another potential starter off the market, but more directly, it’s a deal could set the market for other starters, specifically Jeremy Guthrie. The righty is likely to test the free agent market, though the Royals have exclusive negotiating rights with him until Saturday. Guthrie will be 34 next April, which is just old enough to be scary, but not old enough to be expecting a collapse. As he showed in his half season with the Royals, Guthrie isn’t the same guy they saw in Colorado and reestablished value.

He doesn’t have the track record of Peavy, who was a two time All-Star and the National League’s Cy Young winner in 2007, but Guthrie has been a slightly better than average starter through his career who can put in a lot of innings.

In other words, he’ll cash in.

So if Peavy gets two years and an option, that sounds like a good kind of baseline for Guthrie’s deal. The Royals need pitchers for 2013, but they don’t seem to want to dig deep to keep older pitchers over long-term deals. Over two years, the Royals could take advantage of Guthrie’s skills, but he wouldn’t be blocking anyone by 2015 (assuming the hypothetical option year wasn’t exercised), and by that time, the Royals could have Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura and John Lamb ready as well as Danny Duffy and/or Felipe Paulino.

Guthrie has a 103 ERA+ for his career and 106 in the American League. Peavy, who is younger with more upside, has a 110 ERA+ in the AL. As for the dollars, Guthrie won’t get the $29 million Peavy will be getting, but Peavy’s deal seems to put two years and $22 million at the starting point in my mind. More than that wouldn’t surprise me either, but it’s not likely he’ll beat Peavy’s deal, so there’s a limit in place as well. That allows for some projectivity, which is good for the Royals who are looking to keep payroll under control and can’t afford a bidding war.

It’s up to Guthrie. He likely wants to try to cash in his last big contract, but if those offers aren’t out there, he may turn back to the Royals and spend a couple more years in Kansas City.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I’m not sure I really understand this. Jeremy Guthrie was the Royals’ best starting pitcher after joining the team in July. The Royals gave him a chance to right the sinking ship that was his career. He did it, and he was thankful for the opportunity. So thankful, he expressed his willingness to negotiate a contract extension as soon as possible. This was during the season.

What was the Royals’ response? We’ll wait.

Excuse me? Why? What is to be gained from waiting? It’s safe to say that among the most important goals the Royals should be reaching for is the re-signing of Guthrie. It’s the general consensus among Royals talking heads (myself included) that the Royals will need to find at least two starting pitchers who can range from 2-3 in the rotation to be competitive. This formula, though, is predicated on the re-signing of Guthrie. If the Royals cannot re-sign Guthrie, they need three new starting pitchers of 2-3 quality.

Finding two quality starting pitchers is hard enough. Finding three in one offseason is bordering on impossible, especially when considering the current state of Royals pitching prospects. Kansas City has players with plenty of potential: Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, Kyle Smith (who people sell short for some reason), John Lamb. But none of these players is Opening Day 2013 ready. Most are 2014-2015 prospects, which means none of them will be stepping up to fill the void for next season.

And really, you can’t have enough starting pitching anyway. Even if one or two of these prospects were ready to take the ball in April, the Royals should still be talking to Guthrie yesterday. My favorite theory of pitching development is to have as many quality pitchers as possible, have them compete for spots which makes them better, and then when someone inevitably gets hurt, the pitching staff can maintain. Bonus: the extra quality pitchers are trade commodities. This idea that one pitcher might block another is, as Joe Biden would put it, malarkey.

My fear is that the Royals missed a golden opportunity with Guthrie. By talking to him in September and making it clear they want him around, they could have squelched the pull of free agency, the pull to have teams bid for him. Certainly, they can overpay for him once free agency starts, but that type of short sightedness doesn’t help small-market teams. By talking early, they held the potential to keep his agent form putting feelers out and seeing what market demand might be, or at the very least, the gesture shows the level of support the Royals were willing to provide.

Every day a deal doesn’t get done, the pull of free agency grows. Other teams saw his turn around after being traded from Colorado. They know he can pitch under the right conditions, and other teams are more willing to utilize statistical analysis to understand just what they can get and should be willing to offer Guthrie.

So, I return to my question: Why didn’t the Royals start talking contract extension with Guthrie in September? Did they want to see him start one or two more games? If that’s the case, it’s ridiculous. One or two more starts won’t tell a team much about a pitcher. I’m thinking, as I puzzle over this question that truly confuses me, that maybe it’s a case of paralysis by analysis. Maybe the Royals front office was afraid of the downside of signing Guthrie and that froze them into passivity.

Small-market teams cannot be deliberate. They cannot wait and see. Some people criticize Dayton Moore for the quick moves he makes in free agency. I don’t mind this strategy. I don’t think it’s always the best, but I like the idea that he has a strategy that attempts to level the economic playing field. He needs to turn that strategy to Guthrie, to sign him before free agency opens, as soon as possible in fact. If he’s reading this, and I’m sure he is, he needs to stop and call Guthrie’s agent immediately, even before writing a snazzy comment about how awesome my idea is.

David Glass: All About Average. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve all seen the comments from David Glass. The Royals position players and bullpen stack up with anyone in the division. It’s time to open up the checkbook and buy some quality starting pitching. Finally.

But then comes the rain on our parade. Glass says we can make a run at things with a pair of threes. That’s a heck of a bluff in poker…but in baseball? The other players at the table can see our cards. Can a pair of threes take us to the postseason? Do we even know what a “number three” starter really is?? Is there a definition? I’m going to define a “number three” and see where that might leave the pitching rotation in 2013.

To get really basic, a starting rotation is made up of five pitchers. Looking at it that way…you figure, ideally, you have two guys who are above league average (your numbers 1 and 2) and two guys who are probably below average (numbers 4 and 5). That leaves us with the third spot, sitting right in the middle of the rotation, the barrier between below average and above average. A number three pitcher is basically league average. That’s simple enough.

What is average?

Looking at it from a team aspect, the American League is made up of 14 teams with starting pitcher WAR that ranges from 19.3 (Detroit) all the way down to 2.4 (Minnesota). The Royals starting pitching, through Tuesday’s games, sits at 7.3, which is better than three other AL teams – the Blue Jays, the Indians, and the Twins (luckily, two of those teams are in our division).

The average AL starting rotation has a WAR of 9.65. Looking at average from that perspective, the league is split right down the middle with seven above and below average teams. The Royals are below average and out of contention. Six teams with above average rotations are still in the playoff hunt.

The one above average team not anywhere close to the postseason is Boston, with a 10.2 WAR. A couple of teams who are slightly below the mark are the Orioles at 9.5 and the Angels with a 9.3 (they rank 8 and 9, just behind Boston). Simply put, above average seems like the way to go.

I next looked at individual pitchers in my hunt to define that number three guy. I decided to include starting pitchers from both the AL and NL, and put a minimum of 100 innings pitched on my query. Fangraphs came back with 128 starting pitchers on a total of five pages.

That works out pretty well, with the number of pages being equal to number of spots in a rotation. I thought the best way to figure out what makes up an average pitcher in the big leagues would be to jump to page three. What I found was a group of pitchers who ranged from 2.3 to 1.6 WAR. Then I checked pages two and four, making sure to include everyone in the 2.3 through 1.6 range, with the results listed below.

The average WAR of the 35 pitchers listed above is 1.98. Taking that number and multiplying by 5, we get a total of 9.9, which is pretty close to where we started earlier with an average rotation WAR of 9.65 (remember with the team WAR, we only included AL teams).

We can safely say the average major league starting pitcher with at least 100 innings has a WAR of about 2. I think it’s safe to include all of the above guys, taking into account that guys will have up or down seasons.

Is Guthrie an ordinary average guy? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals have one guy at the low end of our scale – Jeremy Guthrie, with a 1.6 WAR in 78 innings since coming to KC (the number is lower if you figure in his time with the Rockies). The current rotation of Guthrie, Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Will Smith have a combined WAR of 6.2.

David Glass wants to shove his chips into the middle of the table with a pair of threes. Should he? Or should he fold and see what the next hand brings?

If you have read anything else I’ve written at this site, you know I am a proponent of cutting Luke Hochevar loose. This is my experiment, so bye-bye Luke.

We appear to be stuck with Bruce Chen (under contract through 2013), so we’ll leave him in the mix. Dayton Moore has expressed interest in retaining Guthrie. I’m still not nuts about the idea (depending on the contract), but he’s definitely had some nice success in KC. Some think he’s phenomenal, and he has looked good. I personally believe he’s pretty average (the Fangraphs WAR numbers agree), but hey, this team is all about average.

A big question with Guthrie, though: does he count towards our pair of threes? We’ll assume, given our owner’s history, that Guthrie is in fact one of our signings, giving us one more addition.

At this point we’ve got Guthrie and Chen for a combined WAR of 3. Let’s say our remaining addition brings a 2 WAR to town. That’s three pitchers at a combined WAR of 5, with two falling into our previously determined range of being average (Guthrie with his 1.6, and our Free Agent with a 2).

We can safely assume the rest of the rotation will be rounded out with two of the following: Smith, Mendoza, or Jake Odorizzi.

Jake’s an unknown at this point, but has more upside than anyone in the rotation. Given his potential, let’s

KC’s secret weapon? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

plug him in as our number four and round things out with either of the other guys (I don’t really care which one), and assign the last two rotation spots a WAR value of 2.5 (combined). That puts us at 7.5, right about where we are right now.

Ok, so I took the scenic route to my point. What I’m saying is this: two average guys won’t do it.

If we upgrade from two to three average guys, each with a WAR of 2, and mix in two below average guys (let’s give them a each a 1.5), we’d have a total WAR of 9, which is absolutely better, still below average, but in the ballpark.

Sure, guys can pitch over or under (see Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren) their general skill level. Dan Haren is a guy, by the way, I think the Royals should be very interested in this winter. A possible “buy low” candidate who could come out firing in 2013.

So who knows? Maybe a couple of those 2 WAR guys put up better numbers and nudge our rotation to a WAR of 10 or 11. If that happens, we can absolutely hang tough in the Central. If Odorizzi hits the ground running, that certainly improves our chances.  Remember though, in this scenario of a WAR between 9 and 11, I upgraded to THREE average pitchers…not just a pair. Even then it’s no sure bet.

So, Mr. Glass, if the Royals are going to have a real chance…I’d recommend you have at least three of a kind heading into 2013. And you might want to consider setting your sights on something a little more “above average” before you think about going all in.

If the Royals aren’t going to be in a playoff race, the least we can do is talk about it with someone whose team is.

Nick Schaefer from FanSided’s Southside Showdown joined us to talk about the White Sox division lead and their struggles against the Royals this year. In 18 games, the White Sox only scored 52 runs, leading to a 12-6 head to head advantage for the Royals. Nick had his theories.

We also talked about some of the Royals needs this offseason and continued to guess at the solutions for pitching next season. Nick offered his insight on Jake Peavy and his concern that the White Sox will try to keep him. We brought up Jeremy Guthrie, Edwin Jackson and Brandon McCarthy as potential options.

We finished up with some discussion of the Royals successful months (yes, there were some), and if it means anything. To his credit, Nick assured us that it’ll all be better soon. We’ll see about that …

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

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#CountryBreakfast. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

His next pitch ended up landing behind the batter’s eye in center field, courtesy of Billy Butler. Butler’s 27th homer of the year tied it up. Earlier in the night, Butler had hit a ball to the wall in dead center but Kauffman Stadium contained it.

Three pitches later, Salvador Perez took a 1-1 fastball deep to left. The ball hit the foul pole for a homer as the Royals took the walkoff win.

The heroics prevented Jeremy Guthrie‘s day from being in vain. Guthrie was just as impressive as Greinke, working eight innings and giving up just two runs while walking just one and giving up five hits. The Angels two runs came off of a Kendrys Morales homer in the fifth and a Torii Hunter single (that Jeff Francoeur lost in the lights) in the eighth. If the official scorer happens to turn the play into an error (it still went off his glove), only the homer would be an earned run.

Guthrie threw 107 pitches with 71 going for strikes. He only struck out two in the fast-paced game, but got eighteen (18!) outs on the ground. Only one out came in the air.

After the game, Ned Yost pointed to Gordon’s hit as being key in the comeback, since it chased Greinke from the game. That allowed Butler to face Frieri a day after he’d thrown 30 pitches in relief.

The Royals end up playing spoiler a lot this time of year, and this game was a crushing loss for the Angels. Their fans are not pleased with the decision to pull Greinke and I can sympathize. Strong starts followed by blown leads is something he probably got used to after his years in Kansas City. Butler put a charge into a ball earlier, so who knows, maybe the results would have been similar or the same. The “What if?” question has to be in LA fans’ minds. The Angels are five games behind Oakland for second in the AL West and are slipping out of wild card contention too.

The Royals 2-5 hitters were 6 for 24, which is about as good as you can do against Greinke. The only other hitter with a base hit was Francoeur. Eric Hosmer walked twice and stole a base.

Johnny Giavotella‘s throwing error in the top of the ninth was seconds away from history. Many have been tracking baseball’s march towards 500,000 errors, and Carlos Lee and Jose Reyes both committed errors in the top of the seventh for Miami moments before Giavotella’s errant throw. Even in mistakes, the Royals can’t win…

Tomorrow, the Royals send Will Smith to face his original organization. The Angels counter with Dan Haren. The Royals evens the series at 4-4 with the deciding game coming Sunday.

Can Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals continue their success against the division leading White Sox this weekend in Chicago? Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

Last month the Royals swept the White Sox at the K when they played August 17-19^th by the scores of 4-2, 9-4 and 5-2. That sweep concluded a 5-1 homestand for Kansas City before an east coast road trip to St. Pete and Boston. Jeremy Guthrie’s near no-hitter on the Sunday game of that series was the last time the teams met.

Season Series …

KC is 8-4 this season against the Chicago including 5-1 over the last two meeting winning five straight. The teams split the first two series three games apiece before the recent run of success for the boys in blue.

Last time out Luis Mendoza opened the series going seven innings allowing two runs on four hits striking out six. Greg Holland worked around two hits in the ninth before notching his fifth save of the season. Tied in the seventh inning at two, Salvador Perez’s two-run double plated Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar for a 4-2 win.

Bruce Chen and Jake Peavy matched up in the second game of the series which finished in a 9-4 Royals win. Chen went six innings with four relievers coming in after him on what was a soggy game at Kauffman. Escobar went 4-for-5 with three runs scored, Eric Hosmer and Moustakas hit homeruns with Billy Butler driving in three runs.

In the series finale it appeared that Kansas City was going to cruise to an easy win while making history in the process. Guthrie went 7.2 innings striking out five but allowing two hits but it was the first that caused controversy, the official scorer ruled an Escobar an error (later overruled by MLB).

Chicago tied the game at two chasing Guthrie from the game, Tim Collins come in trying to preserve the lead which he was unable to. With the game tied in the bottom of the eighth Butler walked to leadoff with Jarrod Dyson coming in to pinch run. Perez came up with his second clutch hit of the weekend scoring Dyson, Johnny Giavotella and Lorenzo Cain padded the lead by the time the Royals finished the inning.

5/11 – Royals 0 @ White Sox 5
5/12 – Royals 5 @ White Sox 0
5/13 – Royals 9 @ White Sox 1
7/13 – White Sox 9 @ Royals 8 F/14
7/14 – White Sox 3 @ Royals 6
7/15 – White Sox 2 @ Royals 1
8/6 – Royals 2 @ White Sox 4
8/7 – Royals 5 @ White Sox 2
8/8 – Royals 2 @ White Sox 1
8/17 – White Sox 2 @ Royals 4
8/18 – White Sox 4 @ Royals 9
8/19 – White Sox 2 @ Royals 5

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Friday, 7:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (7-9, 4.48) v. Francisco Liriano (2-1, 4.54*)
- Against Chicago this season Mendoza is 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA
- In his last time out Luis had a no-decision against Minnesota over the weekend
- Liriano has one win against the Royals this season which came as a member of the Twins
Saturday, 3:05 pm – Bruce Chen (10-11, 5.28) v. Chris Sale (15-6, 2.93)
- Chen is coming off a loss against the Rangers on Labor Day allowing six runs in six innings
- Over his last four starts at the Cell, Bruce is 4-0 with a 1,35 ERA
- Sale has been roughed up by KC in 2012 while he’s rolled everyone else, in his last outing he gave up four runs on nine hits taking the loss
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (4-3, 3.70*) v. Hector Santiago (3-1, 3.71)
- On August 8 Guthrie went eight innings striking out six allowing just five hits
- Tuesday Jeremy picked up the lone win in the Texas series going seven striking out five
- Santiago made his MLB debut against the Royals on July 6, 2011 and is coming off a win versus the Twins this week

* – Stats since joining the Royals/White Sox

He wanted to give away tickets to that night’s game against the Rangers. There wasn’t a clear motive or a contest. The only condition he applied to his invite was that the tickets go to someone who hadn’t been able to afford a game or just hadn’t made it out this year. Obviously, that’s an intriguing opportunity and I’m sure he was flooded with people asking about the seats.

Anyone want to come watch the Royals vs Rangers tonight at the K??? Got 2 tix above dugout Sec 135. twitter.com/TheRealJGuts/s…

— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) September 5, 2012

Guthrie chose to give them to follower Andrew Wood. What’s more, he even met up with Andrew and a friend outside the stadium. Wood replied to Guthrie’s invitation stating that he’d lost some friends earlier this year and purchased an All-Star brick at Kauffman Stadium with their names on it in their honor. That’s where Guthrie delivered the tickets.

This isn’t the first time Guthrie’s made someone’s day on Twitter. When he was with the Rockies earlier this year, he didn’t have a throwing partner and asked his followers for help. He came away with much more than just a game of catch. His partner turned out to be Twitter follower Woody Roseland, a cancer survivor and college student who’d had a leg amputated as a result of the illness.

It’s really easy to be cynical as a sports fan. It’s even easier when you’re a fan of a team that never wins. I haven’t made up my mind on Guthrie’s future within the Royals organization. He’s pitched well and looks to have made adjustments that have led to his improvement, rather than benefit from a lot of luck in small samples. I lean towards not giving him a long-term commitment just in case he returns in 2013 as Colorado Guthrie and not Kansas City Guthrie.

But despite that cynicism, it’s nice to be reminded that there are true good guys in the sport, even if it’s just doing little things like giving away some tickets or reaching out to a fan who wants to help him stretch out his arm.

Getting good pitching is most important, but getting a good person counts for something as well. Guthrie was a damn good return for Jonathan Sanchez, a guy who never looked like he wanted to be here.

Sanchez’s Twitter claim to fame?

Agree RT @xstrology: #Scorpio is a dangerous lover.

— Jonathan Sanchez (@jonathan_57) June 28, 2012

Yeah…he probably took some heat in the locker room after that one.

On Monday, the Rangers hit five homers to put up eight runs. In the first inning on Tuesday, Elvis Andrus led off with a homer to keep the power surge going and the Rangers added a run in the second on a double by Mitch Moreland to go up 2-0.

The Royals got on the board in the bottom of the second when Alcides Escobar snapped an 0-21 skid with a double down the line to score Lorenzo Cain. He moved to third on an Alex Gordon ground out and scored on a close play at the plate after a Billy Butler fly ball to center.

In the fifth, Lorenzo Cain singled and scored on Gordon’s homer to center, a no doubt shot. Butler followed with a single and scored from first on a double to the gap by Salvador Perez. The Royals added one more on Giavotella’s bomb.

While Guthrie had a good stretch of starts, his short stint in Boston caused some worry that the clock had struck midnight, but he followed it up with another seven inning game, then started rough tonight. Ned Yost credited a pickoff by Perez of Ian Kinsler at third as a turning point. Kinsler had led off the third inning with a double and moved to third on a sacrifice bunt. Then Perez gunned him out with Josh Hamilton up. His third pickoff of the year (after missing half the season) now leads the majors. Guthrie struck out Hamilton to end the inning and finish off the threat. He cruised from there.

The only other hint of trouble came after back to back singles by Hamilton and Beltre off Kelvin Herrera as he started the ninth inning, his second of the night. Greg Holland came in and got a strikeout out of Nelson Cruz on a filthy slider, got a second out from Michael Young on a sacrifice fly that scored Hamilton. Daniel Murphy grounded out to Giavotella to on a force to second to end the game.

That’s a solid win. The top five batters scored and drove in five of the six runs, with Giavotella’s homer from the ninth spot being the outlier. Every batter that came to the plate got a base hit. Mike Moustakas doubled off of starter Matt Harrison and Gordon’s homer was off of him as well. Harrison entered the game allowing only a .492 OPS against left-handed batters this season.

Tomorrow, the Royals will send Everett Teaford to the mound with Vin Mazzaro set to pitch as well. Will Smith‘s turn was coming up, but he pitched the first game in Saturday’s double header rather than the Friday he’d been scheduled. Hochevar was an option on short rest after 1.2 innings in game two on Saturday, but Ned Yost wanted to give him his full four days rest.

I wrote an article last week about Jeremy Guthrie, and how he is not the solution to the Royals pitching woes. I also took a parting shot at Luke Hochevar, and how he once again has turned it on (at least for the time being) which will most likely result in him being a part of the rotation again in 2013.

This can’t happen. The Royals ever changing date to become competitive now sits at 2014, unless…it hasn’t changed again, has it? I see no reason they can’t get a lot better than that a little bit sooner, as in next year, if the team is ready to end the Luke Hochevar era.

If you go back and read the end of my last article, and the ensuing discussion that took place in the comments, you’ll see a conversation about Hochevar, which made me think maybe I wasn’t being fair…maybe I should dig a little deeper when judging Luke. So I did. Looking at the stats, I don’t think I was wrong.

Here we go.

July 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) is relieved by manager. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

We’ll begin with Quality Starts (QS). This is a start in which a pitcher goes 6 innings and gives up no more than 3 earned runs. Basically,  if a pitcher has a QS, he’s left his team in a position to win. In 2012, of all American League starters, Luke ranks 32nd in QS. Of his 26 starts this year, 12 have been quality, meaning he gives KC a chance to win 46 percent of the time. The White Sox and Tigers, the good teams in the Central, have a combined six pitchers (three each) ahead of Hochevar in this category.

So quality isn’t Luke’s thing. Let’s look at runs allowed per 9 innings (not just earned, but unearned runs). Luke allows 5.4 runs per 9 innings. According to Baseball Reference, the teams he has faced this year have scored an average of 4.55 runs per 9, which means Hochevar allows almost a full run more than his opponents generally score.

Not only does Hochevar not stack up against opposing batters, the average starting pitcher is also better. The average starter, against the same opponents, with the same Royals defense behind him, would only give up 4.8 runs per 9 innings. Meaning what? Luke is below average.

Now let’s shift gears and look at WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This measures the number of wins a player gives his team over a replacement level player (minor league call up due to injury, for example). This is not comparing a big league player to the league average, but to someone who couldn’t even make the team. Detroit’s Justin Verlander has a WAR of 5.8, even after being roughed up by KC. Chris Sale, the young White Sox ace, has a WAR of 5.2. Those are the two best pitchers on the teams fighting for this division.

Hochevar has a 0.1 WAR.

On his own merits, regardless of the team around him, Luke has the talent and sheer willpower to get his team one-tenth of a victory.

The problem doesn’t begin and end with Hochevar. The currently active Royals pitchers with the most starts, minus Hochevar, are Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, and Jeremy Guthrie. The highest WAR among this group is 0.7, belonging to Mendoza. Guthrie only has a WAR of 0.1 since coming to KC. Which goes back to my claim of Guthrie not being an answer any more than Hochevar. Well, probably a little more than Hochevar, as Guthrie has seasons of 3.7, 3.8, and 4.3 WAR in his past. Luke has a 0.9 career high.

The key to fixing this rotation doesn’t begin with who we may or may not trade for or sign this winter. It begins with an amputation. The rotation has Type 2 Diabetes. Luke is the foot that has to go.

If Dayton Moore takes Hochevar to arbitration, he’s going to get a raise. I’ve seen estimates in the $6 million range. Cutting Hochevar allows us to redirect those dollars towards a better pitcher. Why pay Luke when it hinders the ability to sign a much better pitcher in the $15 million range?

The White Sox pitching staff has a combined WAR of 18.5 versus 9.2 for the Royals. Detroit has a 15.7 pitching WAR. It doesn’t take a complete overhaul of the Royals staff. But it does take one or most likely two very good starting pitchers. The White Sox have Sale at 5.2 and Jake Peavy with a 4.7 WAR. Detroit’s top guys are Verlander and Max Scherzer at 5.8 and 2.4, respectively.

August 17, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The math is simple. Subtract Luke’s salary and frustrating mediocrity. Add a high dollar pitcher who can post a WAR of 5 or more. Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, or Jake Odorizzi can do just as much as Luke, if not more, at a fraction of the cost.

Maybe Odorizzi breaks out. Maybe Guthrie sticks around and has a solid year. Maybe Duffy and Paulino come back strong for a midseason boost. We’ve got plenty of maybes…we need a sure thing.

Jeremy Guthrie at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

I can already see it. Dayton Moore made the statement several weeks ago that that the Royals will be going after pitching in the offseason (and for a while it looked like maybe at the trade deadline). We are promised some “real” pitching will be brought in. Here’s the part where they try to tell us Jeremy Guthrie is that real pitcher.

Well, let’s not be fooled by Guthrie’s recent hot streak, and more importantly, by the front office this winter when they tell us a big part of the rotation fix is Guthrie. He’s not top of the rotation talent. No way. Granted…he’s better than what we’ve seen here in a little while, but Guthrie is not the solution. The solution is bringing in a couple of guys who are at minimum number two starters in a rotation (in a REAL rotation – not in a typical Royals rotation).

I don’t mean to be completely down on Dayton Moore and David Glass – actually, I am completely down on Glass, but not Moore – there are some positives in the Guthrie situation.

The first positive is after we had given up on Jonathan Sanchez, and were ready to walk away; Moore was actually able to get someone to give the Royals something in exchange for Sanchez. I know…I couldn’t believe it either. I can’t even pull deals like that with the worst owner in my fantasy league. So we swapped out Sanchez for Guthrie, and landed a veteran guy who has had some success in the big leagues. And not just success against bad teams, but was good pitching against the lineups in the AL East. That’s a major victory for Moore, and helped our pitching staff tremendously this year. So we’ve got that going for us…which is nice.

The second positive is, going back to what I just said, the fact that this guy has had some great success against a tough division. In a rotation that features Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Luis Mendoza; Guthrie becomes the instant ace. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling him an ACE, but he’s the Royals ace, which is sad, but at the same time, adding a guy who is better than all your other starters can’t totally be a bad thing.

All that said, here is where Dayton Moore will fly us into the danger zone. He promised a fixed up rotation. And I don’t doubt for one second that Moore wants to fix the rotation and win…whether Glass will put up the cash is another story. So Moore, with his hands somewhat tied, will tell us (I can hear it now), “We really like what Jeremy brings to the table. He’s a solid veteran and great clubhouse guy, and we believe he will be a real contributor to the development and success of this team moving forward.” Then he will tell us that Guthrie could be our guy on opening day in 2013, blah, blah, blah. Nothing we haven’t heard before.

Here’s the thing – I agree with that, to a degree. He can be a part of the rotation. He can contribute, and he can probably be pretty good. He cannot, however, be a number one starter on a contender. Or a number two. He can possibly be a three, if Moore lands two pitchers who CAN be a one or two. Personally I would rather see him as a four, with Hochevar and Chen gone, but there’s a lot of work that would have to go into one offseason to make that happen.

Here’s the thing…we all know Glass will sabotage Dayton’s offseason by giving him pennies to work with on the free agent market. On top of that, we’ve already got Chen on the payroll next year, and I imagine they will bring Luke back as well (unfortunately). So if Guthrie is given a deal like that, the Royals are stuck. We know they will only spend so much on the free agent market, so why throw a big chunk of what the team can afford at a guy who ideally is no better than a three? It doesn’t make sense.

Don’t let this hot streak fool you, and don’t be thrilled when, because of this hot streak, Moore offers Guthrie a two year contract at $8.5 million per year.Guthrie is on fire, no doubt. Since coming to KC, he’s been the best starting pitcher on the mound since

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Zack Greinke left town. Guthrie has gone 39 innings in six starts. He’s got a 3.23 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and he striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings, while walking less than two. That’s all great, and that’s the kind of pitching we need to win this division. But don’t be fooled. This guy is not peaking at age 33. He’s not going to repeat these numbers.

I know, you’re thinking, “But he had some great years in Baltimore” (with the exception of one bad year where he posted an ERA of more than 5). Maybe he can repeat one or two of those years, especially in spacious Kauffman Stadium. But the facts are he’s not a high strikeout/low walk pitcher. He’s a career 5.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 guy. That’s about two less strikeouts and a full walk more than what he’s averaging for the Royals. That’s not bad…but it’s not really swing and miss stuff. We need game changers at the front end, not Guthrie.

I’m not saying the guy is garbage (he’s far from it), and god bless DM for getting him for Sanchez, but do you want Dayton’s efforts to fix this rotation to fall on Guthrie? I don’t.

And of course, the publishing of this article comes just after Luke Hochevar throws a gem…can’t you hear it now? Dayton Moore is on the radio, once again telling Kansas City that Hochevar made an adjustment and has turned a corner. That Luke and Guthrie will lead the Kansas City rotation to the Promised Land. I’ve heard this before in regards to Hochevar, and I’m not buying. Not on either pitcher. Not this time.

You may have seen a man in the seats during the Royals series against the Orioles who came dressed in tights, a cape, no shirt and a Mexican luchador mask. This man, Neal Moorhouse, has been dubbed the LuchadOriole, and is one of a growing group of superfans.

This, of course, elated our own intrepid co-host, Troy “Royalman” Olsen and we invited Nea- I mean The LuchadOriole to talk to us on the show (via video Skype, no less). It was really quite something.

Troy and Chris also reviewed Dayton Moore’s recent trades and tried to grade his performance so far. They also talked about Jeremy Guthrie‘s solid performance lately, including his flirtation with a no-hitter on Sunday.

We also made the announcement that the podcast is making some changes – rather than being known as the Royalman Report, we’ll be adopting the name of the show we’d launched on ESPN 1510 AM, the Kansas City Baseball Vault. The same ideas, insight, occasional nonsense and guests that you’re accustomed to from the Royalman Report will be included the same as always. There’s just a different name, and more of a nod to the past at times. We’ll also be temporarily moving the timeslot to noon on Saturdays for the remainder of baseball season.

This Thursday, though, marks our final episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM – so it’ll live on in podcast form, rather than terrestrial radio. That final show will be at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM this Thursday.

You can listen to this week’s show below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Kings of Kauffman – How do you explain the White Sox struggles at home against the Royals at home but being successful largely in Kansas City?

Matt Adams– Mostly chance. This team, as is the case with most, go through hot and cold streaks.  It just so happens that some poor games have been strung together against the Royals.  It would be nice to have some extra consistency against a less experienced team but the White Sox haven’t exactly been able to turn that into an advantage.

Jeremy Guthrie will face the White Sox for the second time in just over a week on Sunday at the K. Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

KOK – What is the team’s plan for Chris Sale at this point of the season? 

MA – The idea at this point is to keep him fresh through the year so that he’ll be primed for a playoff run.  It’s tricky with a guy who hasn’t even approached this sort of workload before.  You want to protect him but at the same time you don’t want to miss out on the value that he provides.  Sale is arguably this team’s ace, and you feel much better about winning games when your ace is on the mound.

KOK – On a scale to 1-10 how surprised are White Sox fans with Robin Ventura at this point?

MA – I’d put it at maybe a 2.  Nobody knew what to expect out of Robin before the season started so there isn’t much to be surprised about.  Everybody is psyched about the job he’s done.  The team is in first and the players appear to be pretty relaxed out there.  There are some gripes about his x’s and o’s here and there but overall he’s got the fans feeling good.  A manager doesn’t really need to change his style for fan opinion of him to change.  All that has to shift is the team’s record and the fan opinion will go along with it.

KOK – What’s happened in the brief time since these two teams met last week at the Cell?

MA – Since last we met there was a bit of a moral victory to accompany some big wins.  The White Sox had been notoriously bad playing in the Rogers Center and managed 3 of 4 there.  Again, likely it was just a timing thing along but feels good to not have that hanging over the team.  Paul Konerko has missed the entire week after hitting the 7-day DL from a concussion inadvertently delivered by Jarrod Dyson.  He’s available for the series for the first time since the two teams last played.

For the other side of the conversation check out Southside Showdown

Probable Starters this weekend –

Friday 7:10 pm, Chris Sale (14-3, 2.60) v. Luis Mendoza (6-8, 4.37)

Saturday 6:10 pm, Jake Peavy (9-8, 3.04) v. Bruce Chen (8-10, 5.56)

Sunday 1:10 pm, Jose Quintana (5-2, 2.77) v. Jeremy Guthrie (5-12, 5.75)

Jeremy Guthrie, dominating. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That means that in his last three starts, Guthrie has gone 21 innings, given up just three earned runs and allowed only 18 baserunners while striking out 18.

Not bad for a guy the Royals got for Jonathan Sanchez.

Some fun facts about the game:

• Guthrie has thrown 15 straight shutout innings for the Royals. Sanchez has thrown 11.1 innings total for the Rockies in three starts.
• All eight of Guthrie’s strikeouts tonight came on a swing and a miss.
• After two rough starts as a Royal, Guthrie’s ERA has went from 6.68 to 5.75. He has a 4.02 ERA as a Royal. If you could cherry-pick a couple of innings out of those starts (like the third inning against the Twins and first two against the Mariners – and no, of course you can’t, but let’s dream a little), he could have a 1.58 ERA. I know, I know. That’s cheating.
• Tim Collins struck out the side in the eighth inning. He leads the team in relief appearances with three strikeouts or more with eight now.
• Collins also set a new team record for strikeouts in a season by a left-handed reliever with 77.
• David Holtzman from the Royals pointed out that Collins (5’7″), the shortest pitcher in team history, broke a record set by Andrew Sisco (6’10″) in 2005.
• The Royals pitchers struck out 12 batters, the third time they’ve done so in a nine inning game this season.It’s the ninth time they’d struck out 12 overall.
• By shutting out the A’s tonight, the Royals have more team shutouts (9) than the Washington Nationals (7) who lead the majors in team ERA.
• The Royals team ERA was 25th in the league coming into the night.
• Tonight’s was the fourth shutout thrown by the Royals against the A’s.
• The only wins the Royals have against the A’s have been those shutouts. The Royals haven’t won in the three games in which the A’s have scored against them.

What do these facts mean? Not a lot, but Guthrie has been a welcomed addition to the team, especially considering how bad Sanchez was and that the Royals were ready to dump him for nothing in return. Tim Collins has been a solid piece in the bullpen.

Also it’s fun to get a win behind very good pitching. It’s been too rare this season.

Alex Gordon will look to continue his recent hot streak as the Royals visit Seattle for the only time this season. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

As mentioned the M’s were at the K just last week when they took three of four against Kansas City. Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki earlier this week to the New York Yankees, who went 7-for-20 with five runs scored, one double and triple.

Season Series …

Ichiro wasn’t the only Mariner to hurt the Royals last week left fielder Casper Wells drove in seven runs over the four game series. Jesus Montero was 8-for-17 scoring five runs plus drove in eight runs against KC. Pitching wise the M’s got solid efforts from three of their four starters which was capped by Felix Hernandez eight inning performance.

In the opener Seattle put the final nail in the Jonathan Sanchez coffin scoring five first inning runs and knocking him out after an inning and a third. Jason Vargas went six innings allowing three runs but was picked up by his ‘pen allowing one run over the final three innings. Alex Gordon had three hits with Mike Moustakas providing two in the 9-4 defeat.

Game two was similar to game one with the Royals not getting a long outing from its starter when Ryan Verdugo made his MLB debut and only went 1 2/3 innings. Verdugo allowed six runs on eight hits in his rough debut. KC fought back from a six-run deficit twice in the game but ultimately lost 9-6, Lorenzo Cain had a two-run pinch hit home run.

Kansas City fell behind 1-0 in game three but tagged Kevin Millwood for three runs in the second inning. Gordon and Cain each drove in two runs and six of the seven Royals starters drove in a run in the 8-7 win, Bruce Chen took a no-decision. Billy Butler was the hero in the game with a walkoff HR to left centerfield.

Will Smith gave KC a 6 1/3 inning start which he struck out five walking just two in what was largely a good start. Facing King Felix proved difficult even with Kansas City getting eight hits, they were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and grounded into two double plays. Montero drove in four runs in the Mariners 6-1 victory.

7/16 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 4
7/17 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 6
7/18 – Mariners 7 @ Royals 8
7/19 – Mariners 6 @ Royals 1

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Thursday, 9:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31) v. Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91)
- Mendoza picked up his first victory at home on Saturday night against the Twins going 6 1/3 well pitched innings in a 7-3 win.
- In his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against Seattle in four games which includes one start.
- Vargas has won his last three starts and has been given run support of 7 (at Oak), 9 (at KC) and 2 (at TB) runs in these starts. He hasn’t won at home since May 9, 2-1 against Detroit at Safeco Field.
Friday, 9:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 6.49)  v. Blake Beavan (5-6, 5.54)
- Guthrie made his Royals debut on Sunday at home against the Twins allowing five runs in five innings, striking out four and walking three.
- He’s faced the Mariners ten times with each appearance being a start, his record is 2-6 both wins were complete games.
- Beavan threw last week at the K picking up the win going six innings, he allowed five runs and struck out three.
Saturday, 3:10 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.54) v. Kevin Millwood (3-8, 4.13)
- Chen’s last start came in the third game of the series last week in which he got the ND throwing 5 1/3 innings. He allowed four runs on seven hits striking out six without issuing a walk.
- Last week was the first time in his career that Bruce faced the M’s.
- Millwood got rocked in during his five innings at Kansas City last week which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits. On June 8^th he was part of a combined no-hitter for the team against the Dodgers in Seattle.
Sunday, 3:10 pm – Will Smith (2-3, 6.26) v. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 2.80)
- Smith started Tuesday night in Anaheim going seven innings in the Royals 4-1 victory allowing just two-hits.
- He’ll get another shot at King Felix who he faced in the series finale last week where he worked into the seventh inning before being pulled.
- Hernandez like Smith pitched and won on Tuesday night the only game of the previous series for his team. Against the Yankees he went 7 1/3 innings allowed four hits and two runs.

Luke Hochevar will open the series for the Royals against the Twins this weekend at Kauffman Stadium. Hochevar has been pretty good in his last six starts which hopefully continues. Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

The last time the Royals and Twins met was at the end of June up in the Twin Cities, Minnesota took three-of-four to win the series. Kansas City and Luis Mendoza held onto win 5-4 after Mr. Excitement Jonathan Broxton made things interesting. That weekend the Twins hit homerun after homerun to take the next three games by scores of 7-2, 5-1 and 10-8.

Season Series …

This season Minnesota holds a 6-3 advantage against Kansas City in the three meetings so far in 2012. In April the teams met in Minneapolis with the result being a split due to game two getting rained out. The first week of June was the second meeting taking place at the K with Minnesota taking two-of-three. Coming into tonight KC will try to snap a three game losing streak to the division’s last place team.

4/27 Royals 7 @ Twins 6
4/28 Royals @ Twins PPD
4/29 Royals 4 @ Twins 7
6/4 Twins 10 @ Royals 7
6/5 Twins 0 @ Royals 1
6/6 Twins 4 @ Royals 2
6/29 Royals 4 @ Twins 3
6/30 DH Game 1 Royals 2 @ Twins 7
DH Game 2 Royals 1 @ Twins 5
7/1 Royals 8 @ Twins 10

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Nick Blackburn (4-5, 8.10) v. Luke Hochevar (6-8, 5.26)
- Hochevar comes into this start 3-1 with two no-decision in his last six starts against Milwaukee (ND), @Houston (W), Tampa Bay (W), @Minnesota (L), @Toronto (W) and Chicago White Sox (W)
- During this streak he’s kept his walks down and strikeout totals high but the biggest positive is he’s worked past the sixth inning in four of these six starts.
- Blackburn has only faced the Royals once this season and he got the win on June 6 going just five innings. He was bailed out by his bullpen holding KC scoreless the rest of the game.
Saturday, 6:10 pm – Scott Diamond (8-3, 2.96) v. Luis Mendoza (3-6, 4.32)
- Mendoza was the tough luck loser on last Sunday against the White Sox going 7 1/3 innings in a 2-1 defeat.
- As mentioned his best start was at Target Field on June 29^th when he went eight innings allowing one run on five hits while striking out five.
- Diamond first career start against KC game in the second game of the last series when he threw the first game of the Saturday doubleheader. In the game he threw eight innings allowing two runs on six hits in 101 pitches.
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Sam Deduno (0-0, 5.59) v. Jeremy Guthrie (3-9, 6.35)
- Newly acquired Colorado Rockies pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is being tabbed as Sunday’s starter for the series finale. With Colorado Guthrie was 3-9 with a 6.35 ERA but here is hoping that a change of scenario works out for him and Jonathan Sanchez who part of the deal
- In his career Guthrie is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in eight career games against the Twin having thrown 46.2 innings. Another positive stat is his strike to walk ratio against Minnesota striking out 28 against six walks.
- Deduno is in his first season with the Twins, having spent the first two seasons of his career in the national league is facing the Royals for the first time. He came with Colorado in 2010 and was with San Diego during the 2011 season.

Turns out they found a taker.

Guthrie can probably get through the fifth inning most days. Photo Credit: Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Royals sent Jonathan Sanchez and his 7.76 ERA to Colorado for Jeremy Guthrie and his 6.35 ERA. It’s a typical “change of scenery” deal as both have struggled this year, though Guthrie’s troubles can be somewhat attributed to Coors Field, as he has a robust 9.50 ERA in 41.2 innings there this year but a 3.67 ERA in his 49 innings outside of Denver.

The two are different pitchers. Sanchez has always been a high-strikeout, high-walk guy and Guthrie has been the opposite. His career strikeout rate is 5.4 K/9. He’s walked 2.7 per nine innings over his 1111 career innings.

Guthrie will make $8.2 million this year (Sanchez is making $5.6 million), so the Royals will take on salary. To get anything for Sanchez, who was miserable, is worth trying for, especially with Guthrie’s splits factored in. The Royals now don’t have to try a carousel of spot starters to get through the season after injuries to Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino and what was assumed to be Sanchez’s impending release.

Guthrie’s an innings eater, reaching 175 innings pitched or more every season since 2007. If he can be effective, he can give the bullpen a rest on his scheduled days.

If you’re the type, you can follow Guthrie on Twitter at @JGuthrie46.

Earlier, reports stated that the Royals would listen to offers involving either Joakim Soria or Greg Holland, with starting pitching being the primary target.

A full afternoon at the winter meetings has popped up a few more rumors concerning the Royals:

• The Royals are one of five teams reportedly interested in Carlos Guillen as a utility player. Guillen has struggled with injuries in recent years, and will be 36 years old on opening day. He has played virtually every position on the diamond and has a career 111 OPS+.
• Gio Gonzalez of Oakland has been mentioned as a potential target for the Royals. There have always been whispers and mentions of Gonzalez as someone the Royals would be interested in, especially on Twitter. Oakland would likely be after prospects for the 26-year-old lefty.
• Another starter that the Royals may be after is Jeremy Guthrie. With a free agent class of pitchers being both highly in demand and somewhat underwhelming, the Royals are more likely to get a pitcher via trade rather than overpay for a starter. Guthrie looks like a right-handed poor man’s Mark Buehrle and could be a fine alternative if the price was right. The Orioles would have to get pitching in return, according to reports.
• In case you’re wondering, former Royals pitcher Jeff Francis is drawing some attention on the market, as well.
• According to Bob Dutton’s chat earlier today, the Royals are looking for another situational left-handed reliever. There are also “no plans – none” to move Joakim Soria to the rotation. He also has a guess of a mid-January contract extension for Alex Gordon in the 4 year/$30 million territory.

Before we get into the links, I wanted to mention the two new writers have joined the FanSided MLB team this week.  The first, if you read this site daily you already know about.  Michael Engel has joined me on staff here at Kings of Kauffman as a contributor.  The second new writer is Lawrence Barreca who is joining Michael Worley over on our Orioles site, Birds Watcher.

Birds Watcher:  Will Mazzone’s Philosophy Fix Guthrie’s Problems?

Blog Red Machine: No new posts.

BoSox Injection: Sox Sign Veteran Lefty

Call to the Pen update:  will the site be up by this time next week?  Will my life get even more crazy as a result?  Stay tuned …

Chicken Friars: Erik Davis – Sleeper Prospect or Non-Prospect?

Cubbies Crib:  Cubs Quick Hits – Colvin, Frasor, and the Rotation

Deep Left Field: So Who’s the Guy the Indians Got to Pitch for Fausto?

Frisco Fastball: Giants Lock Up Affeldt For Two Years

Halo Hangout: No New Posts.

Jays Journal: Top 5 Jays SP Prospects

Lasorda’s Lair: No new posts.

Marlin Maniac: No lefties, no difference for Fish

Motor City Bengals: Bonderman, Willis Make Final Push Today

Nolan Writin‘: Edwar Ramirez had a short stop with the Rangers before being traded …

Rayhawk Review: Wade Davis Takes the 5th Spot

Redbird Rants: McClellan, Hill, or Garcia for the Fifth Spot?

Reviewing the Brew is still in need of a lead,  email us if you are interested in covering the Milwaukee Brewers.

Rising Apple: My Take on the Ike Davis Demotion and Jenrry Mejia Going Back-to-Back

Rox Pile: No new posts.

Rum Bunter: Ten Positives for the 2010 Pirates Grapefruit League

SoDo Mojo:  Cliff Lee’s Injured, But Don’t Freak Out

Southside Showdown is our new Chicago White Sox site.  We have a lead writer lined up and content should be coming soon.

Swingin’ A’s: A‘s Analysis – Bullpen

That Balls Outta Here: Reunion with Phillies Costs Brett Myers a Groin.  I really enjoyed this tidbit from Justin’s story:

Anybody catch A-Rod starting a completely routine double play that somehow made it into the highlights of the Orioles-Yankees game? That the O’s won EIGHT TO FUCKING ZERO?! Way to make it subtle, ESPN.

Teddy Never Wins is still in need of a lead, email us if you are interested in covering the Washington Nationals.

Tomahawk Take: Jason Heyward Gets Nod For Braves

Twinkie Talk: Twins Sign Mauer

Venom Strikes: Getting to the Heart of the Order

Yanks Go Yard: A-Rod to meet with Feds today

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)