The article itself talked about a straight up swap of Ethier for Francoeur.  That is not something the Royals should do despite the huge gain it would have for this year and probably the next couple.  As we all know, Francoeur is in the last year of his deal with the Royals at $7.5 million this year.  Pro-rated since we are a quarter of the way through the season that means he is still owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $5.6 million.  Andre Ethier on the other hand is inked through 2017 when he will be 35 years old, and an option on 2018 that I assume will end up being bought out.  The total deal is for $85 million (assuming said buyout) minus what he has been paid this year.

Based on recent results he is a 2 to 3 WAR player right now, so for this year an extra $6 million or so would be worth it.   Next year’s $15.5 million is probably also okay.  The problem is in 2015 this becomes $18 million for a 33 year old player who wasn’t that great in is peak, and you are still on the hook for 2016 and 2017 as well.  All of this leads me to a figure of around $40 million or so that I would be willing to pick up on Ethier.  After pro-rating this year and taking out Frenchy’s cost for the rest of the year, Ethier is still owed $76 million, almost double what I would be willing to pay him in a vacuum.  We are not in a vacuum though.

If this year and next year are considered very important to the Royals, and it seems they are, and we consider player value inflation, then I could reasonably see Ethier’s total worth to the Royals increase into the $55 to $60 million range.  So the first question then becomes will the Dodgers eat $15+ million on a contract that was signed about a year ago to get Yasiel Puig to the bigs.  If they are, then I would do this.  A way to make it more palatable to them would be to have them pay parts of his contract in 2015, 16, and 17 since before that what he will be making is reasonable.  Then the second question is how big of a payroll the Royals can have, and isn’t that always one of the questions?

Apr 6, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) doubles during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Francoeur isn’t burning through American League pitchers at the moment, but he’s certainly doing enough to turn his critics snide remarks into more of questions of disbelief.

For instance, opening day, Frenchy went 2-for-4, which caught a few Royals fans by surprise considering his rather dull spring training numbers.

But, the most surprising thing with Francoeur’s numbers, for the moment, is the way he’s getting them. As of late, Frenchy has actually shown decent restraint on pitches out of his hitting zone. Granted, he’s always going to be the lumber-jack style, free swinging hitter at the plate, but for now, he’s showing a decent approach.

It’s not even that Francoeur is being any more or less selective I should say on unhittable pitches, but once Frenchy decides to swing and actually makes contact, the ball is jumping off his bat. Frenchy’s swing is a combination of relaxation, smooth and destructive explosiveness all in one.

Take his at-bats in the series against Minnesota. That double he ripped to left center to hit hard. I mean so hard the outfielder completely turned his back to the infield in order to make a dead sprint to the wall where the ball would be waiting for him. Anytime an outfielder’s numbers on the back of his jersey are clearly showing, you know the pitcher wants that pitch back. If you aren’t satisfied with that at-bat, take his home run on Wednesday night. Not only did Frenchy drop the bat-head to the ball in a hurry, but he did it with a purpose. Sure, you can gripe about the pitch being just above his shoe laces, or that it still doesn’t change that Francoeur is hitting .286 with only one walk and six strikeouts. However, you can’t complain about lack of production at this point in the season.

By no means is this enough to change the overall perception that Frenchy just isn’t meant to be an everyday player, especially for the Royals, but at least he’s producing in the moment. The Royals are 6-3 with Francoeur playing a role throughout many of those wins. My advice, enjoy it while it lasts.

The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

Xavier Paul – He is not as young as I would like, but Paul is a career .275 hitter against right handed pitching.  He has decent on-base skills and speed, and not a zero in power, though below average for sure.  Not my first choice, but serviceable and I don’t know that Cincinnati has room for him.

Tyler Colvin – The Rockies seem to be interested in him playing quite a bit, so it might take more to get him than I would want to spend.  He is exactly the profile of a platoon player, though.  Crushes right handed pitching and not great against lefties.  Last year he hit 17 HRs against righties and only 1 when facing southpaws.  Fielding metrics used to hate him, but not over the last couple of years.  The Royals recently talked with the Rockies about a trade, though Hochevar is not going to get Colvin.

Kole Calhoun – The Angels have four guys that are better than Calhoun and Vernon Wells.  Looking at Wells on the Angels’ depth chart made me smile a little since it means we don’t have the worst right field situation in the AL.  He is a more expensive Jeff Francoeur!  Nothing quite like having a backup get paid $21 million a year for two more years.  Calhoun has shown good on-base and power in the minors although he struggled in a cup of coffee last year.  The Angels also may need some starting pitching due to Tommy Hanson’s injury issues.

Chris Coghlan – Probably cheap, and if he could regain his form of 2009, would be an awesome steal.  That isn’t likely, but even in a bad 2011 he hit right handed pitching well.  Maybe he would be better in a platoon, and every player is better off away from Jeff Loria.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Gindl – Took a big step back in AAA last year, but probably worth evaluating.  Milwaukee doesn’t seem to need or want him badly, and his spring has been good so far.  He is only 24 and has shown the ability to get on base and hit for a least moderate power, which could mean a decent future depending on how he adjust to the majors.

Travis Snider – Still only 25 and could turn out to have an Alex Gordon sort of breakthrough based on what he was once thought of as a hitter.  If the Pirates decide to start him maybe Jerry Sands would be available, and could scoop up Sands.  He could just start over Francoeur and we could forget about this platoon thing.

Anthony Gose – He struggled in his first major league experience last year, and the outfield in Toronto is not lacking currently, if you believe in Colby Rasmus.  Maybe he could be stolen due to the shine coming off of the apple last year, but I doubt a 22 year old with his minor league track record would be cheap enough.

Roger Bernadina – With Denard Span coming in, it seems that Bernadina just became the world’s best 4^th outfielder.  Maybe the Royals could trade them Jarrod Dyson plus something so that they still feel like they have viable backup.  If that was possible I would put Bernadina in center, Lorenzo Cain in right, and cut Frenchy outright.  No way the Royals would do this, but I can dream.

The nice thing about finding someone to play opposite Francoeur in the batter’s box is that the bar is fairly low.  All they have to do to be valuable to the Royals is hit righties in an average fashion and not kick the ball around defensively.  My guess is that every guy on this list could do this, and some of them could be better when lefties are pitching too.  Hopefully the Royals can get an evaluation and trade done sooner rather than later, so that the platoon can begin.  Otherwise we need to give David Lough a chance as Tony said a couple of days ago.  The added benefit of getting someone who may be able to help the team for several years should make these sorts of players attractive at the current time.

Most of the positions are clear cut and dry, with little need for competition.

However, when it comes to seeing who gets penciled in to right field, we’ve reached quite a peculiar situation.

Throughout spring training, you’ve cycled a few people through the spot, with mixed results, but two players seem to be the final option.

So, it’s now decision time: Player A, or Player B?

Player A is 29 years old, batting .234 through 47 spring at-bats, with one home run, 12 strikeouts and a .280 on-base percentage.

Player B is 27 years old, carrying a .543 AVG through 35 at-bats, six doubles, a .556 OBP and .771 slugging-percentage.

Defensively, neither is spectacular, however Player A has a very impressive arm from right field, while Player B has a .980  lifetime-fielding percentage.

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder David Lough (7) scores a run during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

But, as you can see, each player is having a completely different type of spring training. Which brings me to the question, why isn’t Yost putting more faith in Lough?If you haven’t figured out who each player is yet, Player A is the profile of struggling big-league veteran Jeff Francoeur, while Player B is  David Lough, the Royals’ 20th ranked prospect.

In 2012, Lough saw his first promotion to the big leagues, finding playing time in 20 games and turning in a less-than-impressive .237 AVG, while being a career .294 hitter through his multiple stops in the minor league circuit. Lough has posted four minor league seasons with a batting average over .300.

Frenchy is obviously struggling at the plate. Following last year’s eye-gouging .235 performance at the plate, Francoeur is not showing many signs of improvement, specifically plate discipline or increased contact.

With Lough beginning to drift more from prospect status, to career-minor leaguer, why shouldn’t Lough get the nod over Frenchy when Opening Day arrives? Lough obviously isn’t an offensive liability, considering the performances the Royals are used to seeing from Francoeur. Some argue that Frenchy’s powerful arm is right field is good enough to sway favoritism, but while he may cut down a runner at the plate every now and then, his range is not the most impressive attribute of Dayton Moore’s “golden-boy.”

The notion is out there that Moore is looking to find a platoon-partner for Frenchy, preferably a left-handed hitter, which Lough provides. Unfortunately for Lough, his fate will come down to whether the Royals feel if Jarrod Dyson is up to the challenge as the fourth outfielder.

I wouldn’t hold your breath that Lough makes the Opening Day roster, but it would definitely be refreshing to see someone besides Francoeur whiffing at every off-speed pitch at his shoelaces.

Yet because it’s spring and because there’s seemingly two camps you can be in as a Royals fan, the We’re Going To The Playoffs! or the Negative Pop Tart Brigade (rational thought is usually confused for the latter), the rewriting of history has begun and it’s being centrally focused on right field.

The entire 2013 Royals season is being built on the what-ifs and progressions and the career rejuvenations of more than half the projected 25-man roster, but no player has fans arguing against logic more than Jeff Francoeur, especially with what he’s done in a Royals uniform.

So now we continue the series that was started a couple months ago, and to further show just how average-at-best Jeff Francoeur is as a major league baseball player, despite how very much some fans want to make it seem as if he was an All-Star caliber performer in 2011. The reality is, Jeff Francouer wasn’t in 2011 (and certainly isn’t now) even one of the best right fielders, not even counting all outfielders.

Here are some more facts about that fabled 2011 season in which Jeff Francoeur lost weight, changed his approached, and still was exactly average among players at his own position:

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with a 2.9 fWAR good for 14^th among just right fielders.

In 2011 among all outfielders, Jeff Francoeur finished 32^nd in fWAR.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with a negative-3.5 in FanGraphs Ultimate Base Running, good for 97^th out of 102 right fielders.

If traditional stats are your thing:

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with 87 RBI, good for 8^th among just right fielders.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with a .285 batting average, good for 10^th among just right fielders.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with 20 homeruns, good for 13^th among just right fielders.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with a .476 slugging percentage, good for 12^th among just right fielders.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur finished with a .329 on-base percentage (second best in his career over a full season), good for 20^th among just right fielders.

And then there’s this:

Jeff Francoeur’s fWAR rank among qualified right fielders each year of his career starting in 2006: 20^th, 6^th, 22^nd, 23^rd, 22^nd, 14^th, 22^nd.

To put it another way: in seven full major league seasons Jeff Francoeur has finished 20^th or worse among just right fielders in fWAR five times.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) walks back to dugout after striking out during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

I’m a card carrying member of the basement brigade, and why yes, I do eat pop tarts for breakfast, lunch and dinner (I prefer blueberry). I tend to focus more on what a player does on the field and less what he does in the clubhouse. Jeff Francoeur may be a great teammate, and have a great smile, but he also posted a .287 on-base percentage last year. In my book that trumps all the off the field positives he brings to the team.

Optimism doesn’t come easy for me anymore. Two decades of incompetence will do that to a person. Many people look at the Royals roster and see a potential playoff team but I see a third place team that might win 80 games this year. For the Royals to play meaningful baseball in September this season a lot has to break right. All the team’s what ifs have to fall in place and that’s something I can’t envision happening.

According to more than a few debates I’ve had this winter this viewpoint somehow makes me less a fan than those who have bought in. This is, of course, absurdly untrue. Since I have the platform, I’d like to address four comments thrown my way over and over again.

“You want players to fail.”

It’s a bit of reach to think that complaining about a player’s lack of production equals cheerleading. Expecting a player to fail is not the same as hoping he’ll fail. I expected Yuniesky Betancourt to under perform, and to get far too many plate appearances, and that’s exactly what happened. Was I hoping he’d embarrass himself every time he came to the plate? Of course not. If someone can find an article or a tweet where I was cheering for failure then I’ll retire from the Royals blogosphere to live a life of quiet solitude.

“Games aren’t played on paper.”

Computer is sometimes substituted for paper but the point remains the same. This seems to be the go-to phrase when statistics are mentioned. I know games aren’t played on paper, and I’m glad, because I really do enjoy watching the Royals play. I also know anything can happen and a team can over perform its expectations, it does happen, but I don’t think you should ignore statistical evidence that suggests it won’t.

“Nobody has ever hired you to be a general manager.”

There’s a bit of hypocrisy involved in this statement. A few of the people who told me this spent the entire NFL season complaining about Scott Pioli. I’ve marveled at the way the Kansas City media highlights failures by the Chiefs front office while at the same time ignoring the same failures that are occurring across the street. To get back on topic though, no, I’ve never been a General Manager candidate. Here’s the thing folks, blogging isn’t just throwing a few hundred words onto the internet, there is hours and hours of research involved, some of which that shows Dayton Moore has made mistakes. Just because I’ve never been a GM doesn’t mean I’m incapable of recognizing those mistakes.

“You hate every move Dayton Moore makes.”

If you follow me on twitter or read my blog posts then you know that I’ve praised many of Moore’s moves. It’s intellectually dishonest to claim otherwise. Sure, I criticize more than praise, but the fact is a Moore team has never sniffed .500 or the postseason. That’s not exactly the track record of a GM who’s above criticism. Moves of Moore’s that I’ve endorsed include, among others, the Zack Greinke trade and extensions to Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar. 

I was there to see you drafted, Jeff. There to buy you out of your Clemson scholarship because you held hostage all other organizations saying you’d only play for the Atlanta Braves. How classy. How great. Here was this hometown kid willing to alienate an entire industry just to play for his hometown team. Needless to say, I was smitten at first sight.

Since then, the attraction has turned to a deep yearning. You’re all I can think of, and I’m willing to derail a roster to make you know it.

This mirror holds my eyes too bright
I can’t see the others in my life

I can’t avert my gaze. I can’t stop my thoughts. You’re all I can think about. I rushed to the market to commit two guaranteed years to keep you as my over day right fielder; just as you rushed to the depths of my heart with your infectious smile.

Were we too young? Our heads too strong?
To bear the weight of these lover’s eyes.
‘Cause I feel numb, beneath your tongue
Beneath the curse of these lover’s eyes.

There are times I think we’ve gone too far. Heck, your Wikipedia page was updated to say you were a member of my underwhelming major league roster before you actually were. Our bond, while over-the-top and insanely predictable, knows no bounds.

But do not ask the price I paid,
I must live with my quiet rage,

Wil Myers. Needed. To. Go. There’s no way I could stand by and watch the fans and the media tear you apart as you flailed and flopped your way through another season. I had to remove their temptation. I had to remove your competition. Now you’re front and center, as you should be.

Tame the ghosts in my head,
That run wild and wish me dead.

Stupid bloggers.

Should you shake my ash to the wind
Lord, forget all of my sins
Oh, let me die where I lie
‘Neath the curse of my lover’s eyes.

So what if I took a 72-win team, traded one of baseball’s best offensive prospects and your inevitable replacement, for two arguably marginal upgrade pitchers for the cost, and left you in line to get 600 more plate appearances. I will be forgiven because I’m driven by my affection for you. If that’s the worst that can be said about me, then we’re doing alright, me and you.

‘Cause there’s no drink or drug I’ve tried
To rid the curse of these lover’s eyes
And I feel numb, beneath your tongue
Your strength just makes me feel less strong

I tried it for a couple of years, Jeff, being without you on my team. From the moment I took this job there were jokes made at our expense that our hook-up was only a matter of time. Well, they were right. I inherited David DeJesus, I tried Jose Guillen, but it was always you that I wanted.

But do not ask the price I paid,
I must live with my quiet rage,

Sixteen million of the best dollars I’ve ever spent. I bought high on you in every way possible.

Tame the ghosts in my head,
That run wild and wish me dead.

Stupid bloggers.

Should you shake my ash to the wind
Lord, forget all of my sins
Or let me die where I lie
Neath the curse of my lover’s eyes.

When Wil Myers becomes an impact bat with plus-level plate discipline at a fraction of your price, it still won’t matter. I got two years of a 31-year-old pitcher, and back-and-forth reliever-starter…and I got you.

And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, help me on my way.
And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, I’ll be on my way.

{Instrumental interlude complete with dreams of field-frolicking happiness}

And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, help me on my way.
And I’ll walk slow, I’ll walk slow
Take my hand, I’ll be on my way.

Forever, me and you. Forever. My leader. My winner. My Jeff.

La la la, La la la, La la la, la la
La la la, La la la, La la la, la la

I hate starting columns with a quote. It is rule No.1, or at the very least it’s in the top three, of things not to do in journalism. It’s the lazy man’s game of trying to engage a reader. Either you can write a lede, or you can’t, and if you can’t, then you don’t have the passion for what you’re writing.

But in this case, I can’t resist.

“I want to prove to Kansas City fans that what they saw two years ago is what they’re getting this year.”

A striking display of bravado and delusion (though, I guess I wouldn’t expect less from a professional athlete when asked to talk about himself by a reporter), Jeff Francoeur thinks no one is able to do a simple search for his 2011 numbers, and comparison to the rest of the league in that year, as well as look at his career numbers and not come up with an objective measure. Either that or he’s directing his comments to the front office of the only team that feels about him the way they do.

When Francoeur says it’s “back to the drawing board”, I’m sure he’s referring to his lifetime supply of Etch A Sketches.

In 2011 Jeff Francoeur ranked 14^th among 23 qualified right fielders in fWAR. Not first. Not second. Not even in the top 10 as the hyperbole surrounding the player that has spent most of his career being one of the worst everyday players in the sport would suggest. Among players with at least 1000 games played from 2000-2012, he ranks 163 out of 183 in fWAR. That’s not good.

Yet despite all the evidence to the contrary, the media (not all) fail to hold the Royals and Francoeur accountable by writing glitzy articles glossing over just how bad he’s been for most of his career by recounting meaningless stories about naked batting practice and openly, affectionately, calling him “Frenchy”. The Royals fail to hold the Royals accountable for being (hopefully) the only team in baseball willing to give Francoeur an uncontested starting position by trading away – at the very least – an equal player, who’s seven years younger.

But the time to compete is now. Or something.

Hyperbole is what this brand of Royals organization does best. When your regime has never won more than 75 games and every move comes across as more wheels spinning, non-definable rhetoric, hyperbole can be a necessary public relations tactic. The Jeff Francoeur hyperbole train that’s about to come rolling in as Spring Training starts is going to be a fun game of misdirection and illusion.

But, just as this article on FOX Sports KC sums it up nicely: “(Francoeur) ain’t a magician”. The Royals aren’t either. There’s no making this elephant disappear.

For instance, let’s look at two players:

These two players have similar plate discipline. They walked at the exact same rate, struck out at close to the same frequency, swung at a similar percentage of pitches (and at those outside the strike zone) and even saw nearly the same number of pitches – even down to the same split of balls to strikes.

Here are their season statistics with those figures:

Pretty sharp difference between those two players. It’s night and day. One was productive with good power. The other had slight contributions but other than the homers, wasn’t very good for his team. It’s odd though. Two players with similar discipline, and the one with a worse line drive percentage had a better batting average on balls in play (usually a good LD% will lean towards a higher BABIP).

Of course, by now, you may have guessed that this is the common trick of using the same player’s numbers from different years to demonstrate the volatility of performance. You’d be guessing correctly, as Player A is Jeff Francoeur in 2011 and Player B is Francoeur in 2012 (I’m sure the photo was a nice hint).

September 04, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) breaks his bat in the second inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A safe assumption would have been that Francoeur swung at more pitches and more bad pitches in 2012 and that led to his decline. That’s his reputation. The man’s favorite sport besides baseball is golf. He just loves to swing. But he swung at, basically, the same number of pitches overall and the same number of pitches outside the strikezone (according to FanGraphs).

In 2012, Francoeur hit more ground balls (45%) than in 2011 (40.2%). While he hit more line drives, the ground balls came at the expense of fly balls (40% in 2011 vs. 33.7% in 2012). There’s part of his power drop. Less fly balls result in less chances for the ball to reach (or go over) the fence. Makes sense.

It would also make sense that even if he’s swinging at about the same number of pitches, he wasn’t making as good of contact, and hit more grounders as a result. Many of those turn into outs. For a player like Francoeur, who won’t take a walk unless you force it on him, his on base percentage is going to depend on his batting average more than, say, Billy Butler or Alex Gordon, two players who walk much more often.

Here’s the big difference between Francoeur’s two seasons as a Royal: hitting left-handed pitching. When he signed, the prevailing idea was that Francoeur would at least have a platoon advantage against lefties and in 2011, that was the case. He had a .279/.318/.445 line against righties that season, but a .302/.363/.570 line against lefties. In 2012, that advantage was gone. He still hit better against left-handers, but it wasn’t by much. His 2012 batting line was .239/.278/.374 against right-handed pitching but .225/.307/.388 against lefties.

According to Texas Leaguers, he swung at about the same percentage of pitches against left-handed pitchers in 2012 as in 2011, but he swung and missed more frequently, especially against changeups. With problems hitting lefties, Francoeur turned into the disaster he was in 2012. His biggest offensive advantage vanished.

With all of that in mind, is all hope lost? Part of the despair after the Wil Myers trade came from the knowledge that it all but guaranteed that Francoeur would be the starter in right field in 2013. The thought of watching Francoeur chase all year while Myers presumably lit up Tampa is a painful one.

But hope is not lost. Francoeur probably isn’t as good as he was in 2011 and he’s probably not as bad as he was in 2012. As a Royal over the past two years, he’s been an average hitter with an OPS+ of 101. Maybe he’s not going to reach his 2011 levels, but a .261/.309/.429 line isn’t going to win any awards, but it’s not a catastrophe either. Averaging his counting stats as a Royal land right in the same neighborhood as his 162 game average throughout his career.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have Myers, and I’m skeptical of Francoeur. Looking over his numbers over a full season, year by year, 2011 was unusual. It’s asking a lot for him to approach that level of production. However, if the rest of the Royals lineup is more successful than last year and Francoeur can be closer to his career averages, he could at least hold his own at the bottom of the lineup. His 2011 was particularly strong and in 2012, he regressed completely to the other side. If his performance regresses back towards his average level of performance, he may not be the disappointment he was last season.

Background

Sep 20, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians left fielder Thomas Neal (36) bats during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Cleveland won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Neal was drafted by the San Francisco Giants out of high school in 36th round of the 2005 draft. In 2007, he suffered a dislocated shoulder and missed most of the season, but returned strong in 2008 to hit .276/.359/.444 with 15 homers and 25 doubles for Augusta in the South Atlantic League. In 2009, he jumped into the prospect picture by hitting 22 homers and 41 doubles in San Jose and putting up a 1.010 OPS in 559 plate appearances.

That prompted him to be ranked as the Giants fourth-best prospect by Baseball America before the 2010 season, behind just Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler. That season, his homers dropped but he still hit doubles and still got on base. In 2011 Baseball America ranked him seventh in the Giants system. He was traded at the deadline to Cleveland for Orlando Cabrera.

His power numbers fell off in 2011 due to some returning shoulder problems and a hand injury early on. He hit more ground balls than usual and seemed to be impatient as his walkrate dropped in Triple A. In 2012, he was designated for assignment during spring training, but was assigned to Double A. There, the power returned and he hit .314/.400/.467 with 24 doubles and 12 homers in 470 at bats. Despite the shoulder injuries, Baseball America’s scouting reports credit him with a strong arm in the corners and that he has a plan at the plate. One comparison made was to Jermaine Dye.

Neal was a September callup last season for Cleveland, hitting .217/.250/.261 in 24 plate appearances.

Why the Royals Should Target Neal

First, it’s a low-risk move. The Royals can offer opportunity to Neal and he can be a young player with some upside to give them another option in right field.

These are the outfielders invited to Royals camp and their age on Opening Day (* denotes on 40 man roster):

• Alex Gordon* (29)
• Lorenzo Cain* (26)
• Jarrod Dyson* (28)
• Jeff Francoeur* (29 – and happy belated)
• David Lough* (27)
• Endy Chavez (35)
• Willy Taveras (31)
• Xavier Nady (34)
• Luis Durango (26)

Neal, at 25 years old, is younger than all of those options and, compared to other non-roster players, has a lot more chance to be productive.

Second, The Royals upper minors aren’t loaded with outfield prospects yet. Jorge Bonifacio, Bubba Starling are a few years away still. Brett Eibner has struggled with the bat. Derrick Robinson was let go and signed with the Reds. Elier Hernandez is only 18 years old and has 60 games under his belt. Brian Fletcher‘s yet to see Triple A. Fred Ford‘s not a bad prospect, but he’s no closer than Starling is.

Third, the Royals have given many the impression that Francoeur is on a short leash. After a tough 2012 season, any early 2013 struggles probably get him benched at least, and a release would be possible if no trade partner emerged. In the event that Francoeur did get cut, the Royals options would come down to using some combination of Lough, Dyson and Cain to fill the center field and right field spots. Neal gives them another option in that regard.

Maybe he never pans out. The shoulder injuries may be a chronic problem that end up taking away more and more of his power away and giving him nothing for an arm in the outfield. He could have a healthy year, figure things out, and start mashing again. We don’t know.

But it’s worth a look to find out.

It isn’t like Royals fans haven’t been through this before. Tona Pena Jr. was heralded for his defensive genius, and that genius “made him a more-than-suitable every day shortstop” in the major leagues. It didn’t.

Yuniesky Betancourt was acquired the first time (!) in a trade because the Royals felt (well, we can only assume this is how they felt) they were buying low on a starting caliber shortstop with the potential for an elite glove and the occasional production at the plate. He wasn’t. Betancourt was then acquired for the second time (!!) because of some kind of attitude that the team and coaches really liked, and they thought would be helpful and willing to except a backup role. Again, he wasn’t.

In all, each of these scenarios were, and are, entirely understandable. There’s no reason for a team to be open and honest about how bad a player is, even when the stats prove the case. But, when the defense of those stats is predicated on some mythical understanding of the World of Baseball, well then there’s an issue. And that is the territory we’ve entered into with the Royals.

A recent press conference about the 2013 Royals and the acquisition of two pitchers at the expense of Wil Myers (the obvious and eventual replacement for Francoeur in right field), took an expected turn. Questions were asked about the status of right field with the implications that a team going “all in” can’t possibly be unaware of the damage they’ve done to the offense by trading the replacement for what was one of, if not the, worst players in baseball a season ago.

Now whether or not you believe trading Myers at this point in The Process was a shrewd move (it wasn’t, really, given all the dynamics) or not isn’t the point. The point is that Dayton Moore and the Royals have so convinced themselves, so brainwashed themselves, so believe in the unicorn that is Jeff Francoeur, that they are willingly aligning their reputations with him by being so steadfast in their commitment towards him.

Which would be fine, if some sort of objective measure did the aligning. It’s not. Francoeur is a “winning type player” despite the fact that he’s played on more teams in his career that have lost 90 games than haven’t. Despite the fact that he was once traded in mid season from a team, and then that team played nearly 10-wins better without him. Despite…well you get the idea.

And so, here are just a handful of statements about Jeff Francoeur, factual statements, about his career in the major leagues. No editorial comment accompanies these statements other than to say simply: they are facts and are easily acquired by a couple of mouse clicks and pivot tables.

• Jeff Francoeur fWAR rank among all right fielders since 2008: 2008: 22nd of 22; 2009: 23rd of 25; 2010: 22nd of 26; 2011: 14th of 23; 2012: 22nd of 23.

• Jeff Francoeur fWAR rank among all outfielders since 2008: 2008: 62nd of 62; 2009: 57th of 62; 2010: 54th of 62; 2011: 33rd of 62; 2012: 56th of 57.

• Since 2008 the only right fielders with 1500 plate appearances or more with a lower SLG than Jeff Francoeur: Kosuke Fukudome, Ichiro Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, and Mark Teahen.

• Since 2008, of all outfielders in baseball with 1500 plate appearances or more, there is only one with a lower wRC+ than Jeff Francoeur: Mark Teahen.

• Since 2008, Jeff Francoeur ranks last of 62 qualified right fielders in Win Probability Added, at -9.66. Next to last is Austin Kearns at -5.21.

• Since 2000, among right fielders with at least 2000 PAs, Jeff Francoeur ranks 71st of 73 in wOBA. Rob Mackowiak is higher.

• From 2000-2012, there have been 183 players play in at least 1000 games, Jeff Francoeur ranks 163rd in fWAR.

• Francoeur has 84 stolen base attempts in his career. During that same time, 114 players have at least 80 stolen base attempts. Francoeur is second-to-last with a 58% success rate.

• There have been 521 outfielders receive at least 4000 plate appearances since 1900, Jeff Francoeur ranks 502nd in OBP.

• From 1900-2012, 1,202 players (all positions) received at least 4000 plate appearances, Jeff Francoeur ranks 1,078th among them in OBP.

• In 293 games as a Royal, Mark Quinn had 2.7 fWAR. In 301 games as a Royal, Jeff Francoeur has 1.7 fWAR.

• In seven full major league seasons, Jeff Francoeur has been on a team that has lost at least 90 games, four times.

News broke earlier today that the Kansas City Royals had reached an agreement with second baseman Chris Getz on a contract that would have him return to the team for the 2013 season. To sum that sentence up another way: more blog post fodder!

Over the past couple of years Getz, along with Jeff Francoeur, has been the player fans and writers following the team have pointed the majority of their frustrations. Most of the pointing done, and words written, fall under the category of extreme hyperbole, but for the most part the angst isn’t all that misplaced when you consider the hype surrounding the player that has done little on the field to justify it.

That was, I suppose, until last season. The new and improved batting stance unlocked the “power” that had been hidden in his swing for three full seasons (he still hasn’t hit a homerun since 2009), helping Getz push his slugging percentage to a career high .360.* The improvement from Getz was so profound (that’s how bad he was in 2011 and 2010 with a bat in his hands) that fans actually began to use the phrases “not that bad” and “he’s the least of the Royals worries” when trying to justify the playing time of a batter with 13 extra-base hits all season and average-at-best defense. Getz may not have been the least of the team’s worries, but his playing time is a symptom of what has ailed the franchise for six years now.

*LOL

Not that it’s all Getz’s fault he’s been forced into duty he’s probably ill-suited for; he’s not a starting second baseman in the major leagues. It’s near impossible to argue that at this point. Johnny Giavotella was penciled in as the starting second baseman, but a poor spring and the acquisition of Yuniesky Betancourt created an opening to use the Getz Grittiness every day. These things happen when self-imposed low budget teams (heh) don’t have their first laid plans workout the way they had planned. A lack of depth hurt them, and hurt them in a bad way, at the pivot position last season.

And this season, there’s a worry it could happen again.

The contract given to Getz isn’t all that scary for a player of his, um, talents, provided his playing time is handled accordingly. But the same main competitor for the position he had last season is the same he has this season, and the Royals have already shown a clear distaste (and odd bias) for Giavotella’s defense, making it appear far too many plate appearances will be given to a player whose only offensive skill seems to be to be able to put the ball in play, weakly.

Getz’s value as a backup is near non-existent because the only position he can really play is second base, and a backup infielder that’s stuck to play one position that isn’t shortstop provides very little value.

So it’s Getz vs. Giavotella II. Or something. May the best man win.

No matter how it’s sliced, this is good news for those that search to find Royals subjects to write about on a weekly basis. Because no matter which side of the fence you’re on, you can always come up with a good 600 words Chris Getz, and the subplots that surround him.

(I sincerely apologize for the title of this post.)

However with the Royals as we look ahead to 2013, there should be more questions asked about whether or not the offense can sustain any subtractions to its future, instead of just assuming that an acquisition of any pitcher will make this team better. Chances are, with subtractions from the offense (here’s looking at you, Wil Myers trade rumors), the Royals would have traded from one part of the team to another, and not amounted to much overall gain.

Somewhere during the last two months of the 2012 season and into the offseason, fans and pundits have decided the Royals offense was fixed and/or headed in the right direction. Some, you would think, have decided that it’s already arrived, thus resulting in a surplus of talent that needs to be traded in an effort to fix a starting rotation that has been laughably underdeveloped during the six years of Dayton Moore’s regime.

What’s so wrong about that? The offense isn’t good either.

In 2012 the Royals ranked 10^th in the American League in wOBA, and 9^th in OBP. If you want to be one of those people that say advanced stats are meaningless, then fine, the Royals finished 12^th in runs scored. Couple the Royals well documented inabilities (or blatant unwillingness to evolve with the rest of the industry) to take walks or show even average plate-discipline, along with their bad base running and questionable offensive game management, you get a team that struggles to score runs. Trading offensive talent – especially the talent that has more cost-controlled years available than any other piece of the “core” – may result in a zero sum. The type of impact pitcher needed to make a difference would cost too much of the current offensive roster (in terms of value to the organization) plus payroll dollars, not allowing those gaps created to be fixed.

Of course, at the center of all of this is the right field situation, where the incumbent was one of the worst every day players in baseball a season ago, and is blocking a better talent that happens to be center of trade speculation. In most other situations the idea of a blocked prospect used as trade bait to strengthen another unit of the team would be looked upon as good news, but in the case of Myers v Jeff Francoeur, the term “blocked” is more of an honorary term and not one of practicality.

Jeff Francoeur at this point in his career, with all we know of him as a player, should not be looked upon as an answer to any positional question, and serious discussions should be had over whether trading for any starting pitcher matters as long as Francoeur is still the every day right fielder. Because not only does his level of bad take away from whatever level of good the Royals would receive in a trade in terms of pure value from performance, there should also be very real concerns from within the organization about what it says when a well-known GM favorite continues to get a free pass when he continues to play so poorly.

The argument against trading Myers – or a few other Royals offensive pieces – isn’t just an argument that the difference between Myers and Francoeur would be greater than the difference between Pitcher Currently On Roster and Pitcher To Be Acquired, but that the Royals are operating as if they’re a team that has a surplus of talent. They don’t.

What they do have for 2013 – or at least what they did have before they spent $17MM for two back-of-the-rotation starters – was a surplus of money.

If the Royals were truly looking to make a “splash” this offseason by acquiring starting pitchers to make a run at the divisional title in 2013, then their window to do so was to spend in free agency on a front-loaded contract for a difference maker. Take advantage of the young, cheap talent while they could, while still also making an effort to compete.

What they did instead was trade for, and pick up a $12MM portion of an option on a lottery ticket that’s been getting worse for three years in Ervin Santana, and re-sign a 34-year contact reliant right-hander to three years guaranteed, in Jeremy Guthrie. It’s one thing to have the restraints of the market back you into a corner; it’s another to willingly back yourself into that corner by spending money recklessly. That corner, seemingly, is named Trade Wil Myers.

The case for keeping Wil Myers isn’t simply that it would keep from having to watch Francoeur swing a bat for another full season (though that would be compelling enough), it’s that a trade of an impact potential bat with six full years of cost-control left needs to be countered by real impact in return. With offensive holes in right field (if he’s traded), centerfield, second base, and legitimate question marks at first base and third base still left unanswered, the “window” for the Royals would close a little more by trading a piece that could help to answer some of those questions, than it would open by acquiring a single starting pitcher.

How bad can he really be? Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

There are rumors out there that teams are calling Dayton Moore regarding some bullpen arms, and that Moore is willing to trade an arm only if that team will take Frenchy as well. I’m not sure how likely that scenario is…but that’s the word. Of course this would be ideal as it would not only clear a nice chunk of payroll for Moore to allocate to more pressing areas of need (you know…like PITCHING) but it would also remove the roadblock in front of top prospect Wil Myers.

Of course, there are also rumors swirling that Moore is listening to offers on the impact bats, such as Myers, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon. Ideally…I’d like to see the Royals add pitching, remove Frenchy, and keep all those players I just mentioned. However, to receive a pitcher who’s proven they can pitch at the big league level, is still young and under team control for a few years, and a guy who could be an ace – it’s highly likely that someone like Myers would be the price, which leaves us with Frenchy as the right fielder for 2013.

I know it sounds bad. But with the potential upgrade to the rotation, how bad is it really, to be stuck with another year of Francoeur?

For his career, according to Fangraphs, he has accumulated a WAR of 10 over an eight-year career. That works out to him being a player with about a 1.3 WAR on average. Most of his career value was accumulated over the span of three seasons of course, putting up solid numbers of 3.8, 3.2, and 2.9 WAR. That last number most of you will remember well, as it came during his first year in KC, back in 2011.

With those three big years subtracted from the equation, Frenchy is a much less attractive player of course, but still not generally a guy who plays as terrible as the -1.2 WAR of 2012 suggests. He’s only had one other year of negative value, back in 2008, when he posted a -0.8 WAR and had similar numbers to 2012 when comparing OBP and SLG.

Looking over his career, Francoeur is not a great player, but has generally been a solid (yet unspectacular) player. He generally contributes at least some kind of positive value to his team. I’m not saying he’s a guy to get excited about. Not remotely. But he is a guy that should play better than what we witnessed in 2012. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll come out in 2013 and probably hit about .260 or so, with horrible plate discipline as usual, and maybe hit about 15 homers. Will he return to his 20/20 numbers of 2011? Hell no.  But I doubt he hits .230 either.

Matt Moore – worth the price of Myers? Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Look, I’m not defending the guy. Well, maybe a little. The truth is, I’d like to see him gone just as much as 99.9% of the rest of you. But…if Dayton Moore is able to strike a deal with a team like Tampa…something like Wil Myers for Matt Moore…I mean, that’s hard to turn down, right? Moore is signed to a very team friendly contract and under control through 2019. He looks like a potential ace, which we desperately need in KC. Wouldn’t we have to bite the bullet and recognize maybe the team would be better off with a young ace and one more year of Frenchy?

A 2013 starting rotation led by Moore, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ervin Santana looks pretty good. Add in a guy like Luis Mendoza and maybe Bruce Chen until Jake Odorizzi proves he’s ready…that’s a pretty legitimate rotation. It’s good enough that we could squeeze Luke Hochevar completely out of the picture.

Yes, it would be tough to see a talent like Myers crushing the ball in another uniform. But he may be the only chip we have that can land a pitcher of Moore’s caliber. If fans want to see Moore pull of a trade for big time arm, it might be time to say goodbye to Myers. But in the right deal, it’s worth it. I mean…how bad can one more year of Frenchy really be?

And why not? Factoring in playing time (600 minimum plate appearances) you can make a very credible argument he just put up the worst season in team history. Others have put up poorer numbers for sure, Angel Salazar and Tony Pena Jr come quickly to mind, but they weren’t allowed to continue playing every day, and that’s really the difference between a bad year and a historically awful year. For reasons known only to himself, Ned Yost sent Frenchy to the plate 603 times in 2012. And how did Frenchy reward Yost’s misguided loyalty?

By doing this:

…and this:

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) walks back to dugout after striking out during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

going to be dealt in the off season for pitching, and hey, somebody had to play right field. I would have preferred one year but I kind of understood Moore’s motivation. Or at least I thought I did. As you know, Myers wasn’t dealt, and was several kinds of awesome this year.

Reasons to keep Myers down ranged from he needed to work on his defense to he needed to cut down on his strikeouts, and my favorite, he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. Whatever. The first two may have been legit but the third one was just noise and wasn’t offered up as an excuse until late in the season.

I found Moore’s comments about not wanting to block young pitchers in 2014 amusing since Frenchy’s contract did exactly that to Myers. If Myers does get traded (Trevor Bauer, anyone?) this winter I think 600 plate appearances for Frenchy next season is an easy prediction to make. Which means with no one to push him for playing time, and his successor no longer in the organization, another contract extension is likely coming.

The rules stipulated that if you won your league during the regular season you had to move up and play in the post season tournament for the next higher division, in this case, the “C” league.  Conversely, if your team finished last, you dropped to the next lower league’s tournament.  And wouldn’t you know it, my “D” league team ended up playing in the championship game for the “C” league against the team that had come in last place in the “B” league.  Makes your head spin a little bit, doesn’t it?

I know you’re dying to learn the result of the Championship game, aren’t you?  We won.  The best team in the “D” league handily defeated the worst team in the “B” league, while all the “C” teams sat on the sidelines during their own league Championship game.

During the regular season I knew our softball team was good, but I had no idea just how good we were.  How could I?  We were never really challenged and we weren’t allowed to live up to our potential until the post season tournament.  We were just a “D” team after all, and we thought that surely every “C” and “B” team was much better than us.  Well, we were wrong.

Wil Myers is the best player in the minor leagues according to Baseball America. (Credit: Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE)

Ever heard of a guy named Wil Myers?  He plays a variety of outfield positions in the Royals minor league system.  He also played catcher a couple of years ago too, but surrendered this position to make room for the rocket-armed Salvador Perez, but that’s another story.  Except that it’s proof he’s willing to do whatever the Royals ask him to do, anything necessary to put himself in a position to move up to the majors.  He batted .314 this season with an impressive 37 home runs and 109 RBIs in only 134 games.  Baseball America just ranked him as the 3^rd best prospect in the entire minor leagues, and oh by the way – Baseball America also named Wil as their Minor League Player of the Year for 2012.

Beginning with his head turning performance in the Arizona Fall League a year ago, Myers has been on a tear that has captured the attention of baseball prognosticators nationwide who are all drooling over his potential.  For a somewhat scrawny looking 6’5”, 205 lb bean pole, Wil’s homerun prowess is prolific.  At the ripe old age of 21, just four other players have hit 36 or more home runs in a minor league season over the past 30 years.  Their names are Wil Myers (37), Paul Konerko (37), Jose Canseco (36), and – drum roll please – Mike Moustakas (36).

Paul Konerko has 400+ home runs in his career, over a hundred more than any Royal ever, and at 37 years old he’s still batting over .300 and proving he has many miles left on his talented bat.  Jose Canseco has turned into a bit of a joke recently with his weird Twitter rants and embarrassing desire to renew his baseball career at 48 years of age, but back in the day, this half of the Bash Brothers could swing the wood.  Jose retired in 2001 with 462 career home runs.  I believe this puts Wil Myers in pretty good company and speaks volumes about his potential in the major leagues.

Now, let’s talk about Jeff Francoeur for a moment.  If you’ve been paying attention to the Royals this year, you know that Frenchy has a great arm, and a talented, ummm, well, let’s see…  I’ll take the politically correct route and just say he hasn’t performed up to expectations this season.

Jeff Francoeur (Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE)

Jeff has been hovering about 30 or 40 notches above the Mendoza line for most of the year, he’s hit 13 home runs and driven in 41.  Let me say that again – he’s our Right Fielder, one of the corner positions where the team should expect to derive most of its power, and he’s driven in a pathetic 41 runs.  He leads the team in strikeouts per plate appearance, he doesn’t walk much, doesn’t steal many bases, and he covers the outfield like a mule that’s been weighted down with a prospector’s once-in-a-lifetime gold strike.

According to Baseball America’s WAR stat (Wins Against Replacement), Francoeur is having one of the worst seasons in the history of professional baseball.  At least he isn’t burdening the Royals with a huge payroll number.  Oops – he’s earning $6,000,000 this year for taking up valuable space on our roster.  Yes, that’s a 6 with six zeros.  And the Royals are contracted to pay him a whopping $7.5 million next season.  Can you say “it’s good to be Dayton Moore’s buddy”?

Yes I love Frenchy’s smile, his great attitude, and his team mentality.  But at some point (and I reached this point many months ago), you want to win more than you want to root for the nice guy to pull out of his long, lingering, mind-numbing slump.

The concept of watching your team field a historically inept player day-in and day-out, would be almost understandable if there were no other options.  But wait – don’t the Royals have that Wil Myers guy down in Omaha, leading his team to another PCL Championship Series last week?  The concept becomes inexplicable when you see the big picture and learn that not only do the Royals have a replacement option for the worst player in the majors, but the replacement just happens to be the very best player in the minors!

So, what would you do?  Or rather, what would have done a few months ago when this best player vs the worst player scenario became obvious?  Would you let Wil Myers pound away on inferior minor league pitching and chase a few more fly balls in the outfield to further perfect his craft?  Or, would you bench Frenchy and write Myers name on the Royals lineup card to give him a taste of what is to come next year when he surely, hopefully, we all pray will be playing Right Field for the Royals?  I know what I would do.  I didn’t even need to think twice about it.

Over the last few days, Myers as been playing at third base, rather than his typical center field. This is after moving him from right field to center, which only followed after moving him from catcher to the outfield.

Wil Myers at third base. (Photo: Minda Haas)

The musical chairs act hasn’t affected his hitting, but it seemed like 2012 would be a year where the Royals could tolerate any passable defense in right field so long as Myers was hitting. He’s hit. There have been some rough patches, but his overall line is strong. He can take a walk. He hits for power. He’s struck out more this season but he’s still around a .300 batting average and the tradeoff is more power numbers.

Sure, versatility isn’t a bad thing and you never know when he may be called to play third base at some point in an emergency situation, but according to Robert Ford of 610 Sports, the Royals feel that third base is Myers’s strongest position.

This raises a few questions. First, if they felt third base is his best position, what led them to that conclusion? The handful of innings in June at the position? Pre-game fungo sessions? Why not start him at third base once he shed the catching gear with the option of the outfield ready if the experiment failed?

It smacks of moving a player around for the sake of moving a player around, to me.

Wil Myers was stuck in the minors to learn the outfield and get comfortable, with an eye towards moving into right field. He’s blocked by the Jeff Francoeur contract for the rest of this season and despite showing that he was worthy of a look at the big league level as early as June, it’s almost September and he’s probably not going to be called up to the majors this season.

I’ll guess that the Royals will keep him in Omaha to let him win the Pacific Coast League with his team. Then I’ll guess that they’ll suggest that he’s not ready at third and want him to get more work there and they have Mike Moustakas there too, so they can’t bring him up to start 2013. Most likely, that’s the game the service time clock, which isn’t an awful idea in theory, but it’s counter to every statement the Royals have made that they want to win now and have the best players up and want to bring young players up when they’ve shown they’re ready. They seem fully prepared to let Myers just stay there.

Eric Hosmer came up after a month of Triple A. Moustakas spent about a year there. Danny Duffy was up after two Omaha months. Did the philosophy change, or is the target moving around again? If they’re concerned about the struggles of Hosmer and Moustakas, well say that. Say “we brought some players up we thought were ready and they’ve done well but we may want to take another track this time.” Good enough for me. Don’t keep switching positions and sitting on veterans and tell me the .300 hitter who leads the minors in homers isn’t ready to hit at this level.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Myers is ready. He could play a reasonable right field in the majors. Or, at least, he can be as good riight now as Francoeur has been. This year, Francoeur hasn’t shown good range and while his arm is still potent, it’s not as valuable as it was last season, according to FanGraphs. It might make it to that level by season’s end, but even with the arm, his range is so bad he still struggles to keep up. Also, his arm is only good for anything if he can get to the ball. Surely Myers could make the same plays Francoeur has and probably make plays he hasn’t.

Ford suggests that Myers could be an option to spell Moustakas at third on days against left-handed pitching. That could be an option and you’d want to have the player ready for that scenario, but why now? He’s never played third (and it shows, according to Lee Warren and Minda Haas), and now a month and a half in Triple A will be enough time to plug him in there, yet a year in right field (a less demanding defensive position on the defensive spectrum) isn’t enough time to try him while he’s mashing the ball?

I don’t get it.

Sure, there are roster logistics at play. Myers would have to be added to the 40 man roster, but with a week left before September, does Francisley Bueno need his spot? Is Adam Moore a priority? Are Jason Bourgeois and Ryan Verdugo and Tommy Hottovy vital to this organization? Chris Getz is right there, ready to be put on the 60 day disabled list, too. There are ways to make it work.

But maybe I’m looking for a conspiracy where none exists. Maybe I’m so conditioned by curious decision making by this organization that it’s jaded me to the point that it all starts to feel arbitrary. If so, I’ll accept that charge.

Moustakas is showing signs that he could be a supreme defensive third baseman and can also be a force at the plate for extended stretches. Myers isn’t going to replace him defensively.

I mean, if I’m overreacting, please tell me. At this point, the Royals have said that they felt they had enough pitching, then had to call on Ryan Verdugo, Vin Mazzaro, Nathan Adcock and others in Spot Start Roulette after injuries mowed down Duffy and Felipe Paulino. They’ve sent Alex Gordon and Billy Butler down after struggles in the not-so-distant past, but Eric Hosmer was left to swipe at the low and away pitch all summer. They made a point to see what Jarrod Dyson could do in center, but haven’t afforded the same opportunity to Johnny Giavotella while letting Yuniesky Betancourt play the majority of the time at second until his release.

Now, the new narrative may turn out to be “We want to see more of Wil at third and evaluate where that fits our ballclub.”

The best case for Myers is to play right field. Every day. I’ll concede the occasional start in center to give someone a rest (thought I don’t know that he’ll be a fit for the duties of center over long stretches). If he can play third base well enough to be thought of as someone who might spell Moustakas once every other week, okay, fine, but conduct that test in Kansas City. My fear is that it’ll be too easy for the Royals to resist wasting more time.

Ignore for a second the needs of the starting rotation. However apparent the holes are with the current 5-man setup, and they are apparent, there are equal amounts of questions that are yet to be answered surrounding an organization that continues to employ a swing first, second, third, and ask questions later, offensive approach.  And because of that offensive strategy added to a base running philosophy akin to the little league team whose runner keeps circling the bases because he represents the last run allowed to score in the inning, no matter how good the starting pitching becomes it might still be overshadowed by an offense that works itself into outs in any way possible.

Despite being 6^th in all of baseball in batting average at .268, the Royals are just 22^nd in runs scored. Surely a lot of that run-scoring disparity is due to so many outs being recorded on the base paths, but it’s also in large part due to the team’s inability to reach base without putting a ball in play.

The Royals currently are 29^th in baseball in walks drawn with 302. Major League average at this point in the season is 367. The Royals are so bad at drawing walks that the same amount that separates them from the Los Angeles Angels at 24^th, is just four less than what separates the Angels from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 12^th.

The distance between the Royals and a slightly above average team in walks drawn is really inexplicable when you consider the easiest way for a small market team to compete is to avoid outs any way possible, with drawing walks being a central component of that, and they are once again one of the very worst at it in the game.

But because the Royals do hit for a high average as a team the offense is looked at as a strength. And positions of strength are usually where teams look towards to trade from when attempting to improve other areas. Well, the most attractive trade pieces currently on the Major League roster are most likely the only two that are most helping the team’s cause of non-out making: Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.

In one you have a great athlete that plays Gold Glove (however meaningful a Gold Glove is) level defense while accumulating 6.9 fWAR last year, and will knock on the door of 5 fWAR this year. In the other you have a 26-year-old that’s turning into one of the better hitters in baseball. Both are under contract and are inexpensive, and both would figure to bring back the most in return if flipped for talent elsewhere.

But would it be worth it?

There doesn’t figure to be much of a difference in the offensive lineup that’s currently being fielded from the one that will be written on the scorecard in 2013. And with rumors circulating more and more that it won’t be until May of next year before Wil Myers takes the place of Out King Jeff Francoeur, there really isn’t much of a reason to expect much of a difference in run scoring and walks drawn.

This is simply an organization that doesn’t value walks, and because of that, it will always be difficult for them to score runs.

However much of an impact it would make on the pitching staff to trade either Gordon or Butler, the net gain might not be worth it when coupled with the crippling loss it would be to the offense.

I advocated last week on the Royalman Report that the best strategy at this point would be to stand pat and hope some of the young pitchers take a step forward, while also seeing if some combination of Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, or even Joakim Soria can make an adjustment to the starting rotation. Would it be a gamble? Sure. But it’s one at this time the team can afford to make because the chance of any pitcher signing with Kansas City that’s distinguishably better than what is already in the rotation is slim.

The Royals are in need of a higher caliber starter than would be available for them in free agency, and possibly than would be better than available via trade. At this point, taking away from an offense that is already 40 runs below the American League average to make an insignificant upgrade over what is currently in the rotation, just wouldn’t be right.

There’s little chance any of the difference-making pitchers would sign with Kansas City. That’s just how it is. But unless there’s a real opportunity to sign one the next tier pitchers in free agency, there’s no sense in trading either Gordon or Butler for that guy.

The Good

Looking good, Billy Ray.

He’s been called overrated. He’s been called merely average. Some rather foggy-glassed fans have called him called a liability. What Billy Butler really is to the Kansas City Royals, is a remarkable rock of consistent and now, near elite level of production. (15^th in all of baseball in RC+) This season he’s no worse than the team’s second best hitter, and looking forward given the way things have gone this season, he would look to repeat that for at least the next few years.

As Butler’s power increases (homerun numbers anyway), his walk numbers would figure to do the same, even though they haven’t this season. And in a lineup and an organization that shows a complete disregard for outs of any manner on offense, having a batter that provides both categories in a lineup that’s rather void of either is invaluable.

The Bad

There’s an argument to be made for why Wil Myers has not, or is not playing baseball games in Kansas City. There is. I think. Maybe.

Whether it would be the 40-man crunch due to the Rule V draft in November, or the gaming of service time so Myers doesn’t hit free agency the year after Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are scheduled to, the reasons for keeping Myers in Omaha are flimsy at best.

The organization already showed its hand in calling up players “when they were ready”. Hosmer was brought up a month into a season of clear non-contention to burn service time because he was deemed ready. Moustakas was the same, as was Danny Duffy. The Royals have already proven that they’re willing to shirk the normal rules of service time and money to get players to the big leagues once they’ve proven they’re ready.

So why is it that Myers continues to hit, and hit well, in Triple-A while Jeff Francoeur continues to be one of the worst players in baseball?

There’s probably a very, very good reason why Myers is still not in Kansas City. The worry would be, however, that the precedent has already been set by the organization that is now changing their rules to accommodate a player they’re well known to love, that just isn’t that good.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

Following a sweep-saving, extra-innings win by the Royals over the Rangers witnessed by the Royalmen from a Kauffman Stadium suite, we talked about Ned Yost’s ultamatum and the DFA’ing of Yuniesky Betancourt and the firing of Doug Sisson. Seems that the entire team is fixed now, right? Might’ve been a bit of sarcasm there. Regardless, we talked about it all and caught up with the rest of the minor leagues and reset several other storylines around the team.

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Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) looks on from the dugout against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

I use to have this football coach who was a little bit kooky, a little bit nutty in a down-home-Midwest-drill sergeant kind of way.  He had a flattop haircut decades after that was something people were still doing. He use to pad up and play scout team quarterback with us, which felt odd even at the time. He also had these incredible sayings that kind of made no sense. The one that’s sticking in my mind at this moment is “If you always do what you always did, you’ll always get what you always got.”

It seems true enough even if it’s completely false. Sometimes, you can in fact just keep doing what you’ve always done with differing results because the circumstances surrounding that action change. For example, a large group of people in New York continued to back mortgage futures into the mid 2000s, at first making billions of dollars and then losing billions of dollars when the housing bubble burst. Same doings, differing results.

That said, I think it might help Ned Yost to learn my old, zany coach’s lesson a little bit. Recently, he made a statement to Bob Dutton, my favorite beat writer of all time, that Dutton put in an article about Yost’s “steady as she goes” approach to losing many baseball games: “You don’t do crazy stuff that you wouldn’t do if you were winning ballgames. You try to stay as even-keeled as you can. You stay positive. You keep working. We don’t change anything.”

I read this, and immediately, the voice of my old coach popped into my head, “If you always do what you always did, you’ll always get what you always got.” Yes! Of course! When you experience sustained losing, you must change something or you will continue to lose. That seems like the most basic sports principle of all time, and yet, it alludes Yost. The principle behind Yost’s philosophy, I’m guessing, is to not be overly swayed by small sample sizes. Statisticians know the perils of this. But the Royals are 41-60. They’ve lost 21 of their last 27. That’s not a small sample size. It’s in fact a very healthy sample size when the question is should something be changed? Abso-freaking-lutely something should be changed!

There is a point when patience becomes impotence, when faith in the ability of your guys is clearly misplaced. As Royals fans, we know where that faith is misplaced: Jeff Francoeur and Yuniesky Betancourt. Are the Royals a winning team, even with an optimal lineup of the organization’s best players (yes I used “organization” intentionally as our best second baseman and right fielder are currently in AAA)? Maybe, maybe not. But to consistently repeat an action, like playing two players who are not effective, and expecting changing results when the circumstances surrounding that action never really change is willful ignorance (Some call it insanity; too me, that’s a slight on the truly insane like myself and Donald Trump).

Is Yost stupid? I don’t know for sure, but I doubt it. I’m guessing he’s a decently smart baseball guy. He’s just not wise. He’s clearly not a big picture guy, and that’s just crazy when the biggest picture he should be concerned with is doing whatever it takes to win baseball games. It feels like he’s more concerned with getting players to play well. It would seem like these two things are connected, but they really aren’t. He needs to get the team to play well. Sometimes, that means changing the team so it doesn’t include dead weight. And yes, he needs Dayton Moore’s help to do this.

Moore showed some signs that he might be a little wiser than Yost. He made a change today, trading Jonathan Broxton for a couple of solid minor league arms. Kudos for Moore for taking a player who had some value to other teams but not really to the Royals and turning it into some value for the Royals. Now, he and Yost need to figure out how to do that with players inside their own organizations or both of them may learn what the brutal winds of change their so hesitant to bring about feel like when they’re sweeping them away.

And as the Royals fade into oblivion yet again, there are rumors (aren’t there always?) that Dayton Moore is in talks with just about every team, about every player, as the trade deadline approaches. Of course, with those rumors always comes the caveat that the Royals need to be compelled to trade any of their players.

Yeah, because as this roster is currently constructed, contention is imminent, and trading players would negatively affect the future.

Aside from the obvious reasons to not hang on to a mostly untalented roster, there’s a stiff breeze blowing from the south from a franchise that’s wide-open for trading business, and looks intent on sending everything packing that’s not bolted firmly to the floor.

Jeff Luhnow took over the Houston Astros’ GM position in December – leaving the Cardinals organization and being a major player in their rising success over the past few years – and immediately became the (new) jewel of the saber-community eye. He interviewed Keith Law. He hired Mike Fast.* He immediately started unloading his over-valued, over-priced players nearing the end of their contracts.

*An admitted Royals fan. Poor guy.

And as this season’s trade deadline is nearing, the Astros have traded their closer (ahem), their first baseman, their third baseman, and their best starting pitcher. What each deal brought in return doesn’t matter as much as the reasons for doing so.

The Astros are a bad team, and holding on to players who a) can easily be replaced by a minor leaguer (Chris Johnson) b) serve little purpose on a losing ball club (Brett Myers) or c) just aren’t that good anymore past their recognizable name, would be a huge mistake (Carlos Lee). Huge.

Granted, where the Astros are in their process of rebuilding is (presumably, at least in narrative) different than where the Royals currently are in theirs. But the correlation between each of those causes for trades with Houston and Luhnow serves as a stark reminder of the missteps so far with Dayton Moore during his regime, and ones that hopefully he’s not repeating as the clock ends the deadline tomorrow.

A)   Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt: two players currently on the roster that can, and most assuredly would, be more than adequately replaced by younger, cheaper players currently in Triple-A. Of course, at this point, another team would have to want either of these players, and there’s little reason to think any objective mind would care to have Francoeur wounded-giraffing his way around their outfield and swinging at everything that moves at the plate, or Betancourt Betancourting everywhere.

B)   Jonathan Broxton, or, Joakim Soria redux: the “closer” is a largely overrated role on a pitching staff anyway, but especially one on a regime that has yet to finish a season less than 10 games under .500. There’s no place for Broxton on this team anymore, given how bad that been over the past month-plus, and now would be the ideal time to find out if Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, or Kelvin Herrera can step in to fill the role in order to prepare for next season.

C)   Jeff Francoeur, again: this one is just too easy.  Francoeur at this point in his career is quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball. His negative 1.7 fWAR is the lowest in the major leagues, and there’s no amount of contrived leadership or naked batting practice that can make up for that. The contract offered to Francoeur was a mistake then, and remains a beacon for the reason teams should never pay for a player coming off a career year, before his positional market establishes. Dayton Moore beat the market to the punch when he signed Francoeur to his 2 year, $13MM deal, and the market punched back with a right-hook from hell.

If the Royals really wanted to be daring they would take this opportunity of over-valued relievers, and float the idea of a Broxton-plus package that consisted of both he and one of the other very cheap, and very young, bullpen arms.

Losing Holland, Collins, Herrera, or Crow could be a tough pill to swallow simply from a salary stand point, but there’s few other players currently on the roster that the Royals could flip in exchange for actual talent, and not have it be a major setback to the overall goal.

No matter the case, whether the Royals choose to be daring or practical as the final hours of the deadline approach, they cannot afford to stand-pat. Patience in The Process has been preached each year at this time, and because of that, moves that could have made a dramatic impact on the roster haven’t been done.

For this season, one in which more questions were raised than answers given, it would be nice if the Royals took a page out of the Houston playbook and made a concerted effort to trade everyone that doesn’t look to figure into the 2013 roster plans.

The Good

Well, um, there’s…well there’s…and there’s…

Billy Butler was named AL Player of the Week? Yeah, I guess that works. In his last 21 games Butler has been – well he’s been Billy Butler.

If it weren’t for Butler (.378/.440/.561 in his last 21 games) and Alex Gordon (.352/.406/.473 in his last 21 games) there would be little reason to watch the Royals on a nightly basis. Heck, probably even a weekly basis.

The Bad

Where’s a good place to start? The Royals have lost 21 of their last 27 games and the optimizing that was brewing at the start of June, has quickly faded back to the normal KC-fan despondence. The Twins, whom all Royals fans got pleasure in (finally) being able to mock to start the season, have climbed ahead of the Royals in the standings by slugging their way to victories despite missing Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe for a handful of games.

Yes, Buddy Bell was right.

Is there anything to look forward to? Heck, who knows? The quick answer would be “yes” because with each passing day the Royals are that much closer to calling up Wil Myers, but because that roster move has been inexplicably put-off for over a month now, it’s more likely that it won’t happen until September.

The Royals keep using the argument that a spot needs to be created for Myers before he can make his trek to Kansas City, but when the player he’s replacing is Jeff Francoeur, that would be like a TV network saying they just can’t find a place for the new Louis C.K. pilot because they already have ‘Whitney’ in that time slot. A change is a necessity, not a burden.

The Upcoming

The Royals next six games are against a Cleveland team that’s looking to unload some of its veteran, high-cost players, and a Texas team that’s likely to come into Kauffman Stadium and hit 27 homeruns in their three-game set.

So, a mid-summer home stand watching an (again) basement dwelling team on a massive losing stretch? That sounds super fun.

They’ve made it apparent that Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Mijares and Jonathan Broxton are the key names available.

Now it’s a matter of turning those names into something of value. That’s the goal, right? Trade the veterans for other players, usually younger, and continue loading up during this rebuilding stretch.

But here’s where I’m worried. The Royals as an organization have shown that they can scout players and identify solid draft picks. They’ve loaded the farm system with talent and potential. They aren’t always good at evaluating the problems with players they currently have on the roster and I think it’s going to cloud their minds during the deadline.

Francoeur in a good moment. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

Jeff Francoeur is a great guy. He’s active within the community, takes rookies out to dinner, shows them how to conduct themselves after the game and he’s almost always got a smile on his face. Unfortunately, those kinds of things aren’t so important that they add anything to the score during the game. Leadership only goes so far until it has to be supported by performance. Last year, he might have hacked at some bad pitches but he was hitting the ball. Sometimes they were choppers but often, those hits turned into doubles. Bad habits can be overlooked when a player is going good. And in 2011, Francoeur was going good.

But players don’t change their ways usually and performance leaks catch up. In Francoeur’s case, he looks lost at the plate, swinging at bad pitches, taking good ones, and hasn’t produced much of anything.

That hurts his trade value severely. He already carries a stigma that his leadership can’t overcome and his contract is a burden as well.

Now the Royals have to try to get something for him.

Betancourt has the same kind of issues. The Royals will talk about how he has right-handed pop, but even in the last two years when he’s reached double digit homers, his slugging percentage was barely around .400. Combine that with a reputation for bad defense and the same poor pitch selection as Francoeur and there’s a player who’s tough to trade off for a prospect.

The Royals say both are on the trade block, but both could just as easily be on the waiver wire this time next month with their lack of performance. What teams are going to give up value for that? There’s little point to trading anything of significance for players who could end up on the scrap heap in a few weeks. Either they’ll be essentially free or they won’t be of use to a contending team.

Where the Royals are most deluding themselves, though, is with their pursuit of a return for Jonathan Broxton.

Yes, he has 23 saves in 26 attempts this year, but teams aren’t blind.

While Broxton used to be the behemoth setup man and closer for the Dodgers, regular overuse by Joe Torre led to injury and he hasn’t been good since 2009. Now and then he can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, but he’s not the dominant force he used to be. His strikeout rate is nearly half of his career rate and it wasn’t much better last season. He’s always walked around 3.5 batters per nine innings, but he’s also much more hittable since his struggles in LA.

The Royals tell teams they want a young starting pitcher who’s ready to be in the big leagues for him.

Newsflash: Every team wants that player. Dayton Moore knows of this principle. In January 2011, bloggers at the Digital Digest asked him how he can claim to look for on base percentage players but how he doesn’t end up signing players who have that scouting profile. His answer was that the market created that challenge – that other teams wanted those kinds of players and you had to “take what you can get“.

Now, nobody can blame Moore for trying to see if a team will give up a pitcher who’s close to becoming a mainstay in the rotation, so if it’s a calculated approach to snag a bit more value, great. If they can pull it off. At a point, though, they’ll have to take what they can get, and if that’s a diamond in the rough, so be it.

It smacks of the same kind of tunnel vision Allard Baird had when trying to trade Carlos Beltran. He made it clear to everyone that he wanted a third baseman and a catcher. Nevermind if there might have been a solid outfielder who could have turned into a star. It didn’t fit the positions he was fixated on. There are rumors that Robinson Cano could have been had for Beltran, but he wasn’t a third baseman, so no dice.

In this case, Moore has to approach it as if it’s a draft. In the draft, you don’t draft for need unless you know the player is going to produce immediately. That’s a rare occurrence. Draft the best talent and you’re better off. In this case, if there’s any talent and it’s not the stated requirement of “MLB-ready young starter” then the Royals need to jump on it.

Betancourt and Broxton are on one-year deals. The Royals get nothing if they ride them out for the rest of the year. Betancourt isn’t going to return much at all but he’ll get something, some fringe minor leaguer who might turn into something. That’s enough. Francoeur’s contract would have to be absorbed to move him and again he might not get much, but they have to do it. Broxton’s most likely to move, but not if the Royals hold out for that pitcher. They’ll either end up with something subpar, like a Vin Mazzaro, or they’ll end up with nothing.

They’re treating Broxton as if his 23/26 saves mean something. It’s not often that pitchers with a 1.402 WHIP are treated as hot commodities. Teams know the numbers. They’ve seen how often he puts a runner on to lead off the inning (40% of the time). They know he’s put the tying or lead run on base 16 different games in 31 games where he’d entered with the lead. Would any other GM want that for their closer? Nevermind that most of the contending teams have a closer already or options who are in the same class as Broxton.

Sooner or later, Broxton’s tendency to let runners on will catch up to him and teams don’t want it to be during a meaningful game. If they have to settle on some A-ball prospect, they have to make the trade.

Moving Francoeur and Betancourt have the added benefit that whatever you get for them almost doesn’t match the benefit of simply taking their combined .277 on base percentage out of the lineup (which is just the same as saying they make an out in 72.3% of their plate appearances) and injecting Wil Myers and Irving Falu or Johnny Giavotella (who’s hitting .402 this month and has a 21 game hitting streak for Omaha) into the lineup.

It’s time to recognize that some dead weight needs to be cut and some pieces need to be moved for whatever’s out there. The Royals have the bullpen reinforcements to absorb Mijares or Broxton leaving and Myers can’t be much worse than Francoeur at this point. I’d take the opportunity to go with a full youth movement and bring up Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery just to get what you can out of them. See what they can do. Let them learn at this level and see who rises to the challenge. Heck, start them in the bullpen even. Manage their appearances as best you can to build them up slowly the rest of the year. Try something a bit different – the current way isn’t working.

But that won’t happen. Dayton will sit on Broxton and say later that the right match didn’t materialize, when he was focused on what he had to have and not what he could have. Frenchy’s leadership will be valued over his performance and Betancourt – well I really don’t understand Moore’s obsession with Betancourt. Moore has acquired him twice – on purpose – and nobody’s going to confuse Betancourt for a good baseball player. There’s still time for Falu or Giavotella to learn to become one.

It’s a tough game, and only one team is happy at the end of the year, but the Royals have to position themselves better just to avoid being the most miserable. It’s time to make some moves. Maybe it’s just being impatient, maybe it’s frustration. Yeah, the pitching is a problem and the Royals have to address it this offseason (and get something at the deadline if they can), but that doesn’t mean they can’t fix the other problems on the roster and in their approach to building it.

Will Hosmer have another series like he did last time the Royals played the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

KC and LAA haven’t seen each other since the first week of the season when the Royals took two-of-three against the Angels. Los Angeles won the opening game before Kansas City took the next two, my how things have changed during the year for both franchises during the season.

Season Series …

In the season opener LA won 5-0 in a well pitched game from Bruce Chen but it was Jared Weaver who got the win as Aaron Crow took the loss. Erick Aybar hurt the boys in blue driving in three runs during the five run eighth which was the difference in game one.

The next day Kansas City touched up Dan Haren en route to a 6-3 victory evening up the series. Jeff Francoeur went 2-for-4 driving in two, Eric Hosmer batting in the third spot was 2-for-5 which he scored twice with an RBI. Not to be forgotten Luke Hochevar went 6 1/3 innings allowing two runs with four strikeouts.

Easter was the last time these teams played with the Royals beating the Angels 7-3 moving to 2-1. KC struck Ervin Santana for three runs in the highlighted by Billy Butler hitting a two-run homer that brought in Hosmer. Country Breakfast and Hos combined for six of the seven runs Kansas City scored, Jonathan Sanchez picked up the win to show how long ago this was.

4/6 – Royals 0 @ Angels 5
4/7 – Royals 6 @ Angels 3
4/8 – Royals 7 @ Angels 3

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 9:05 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.57) v. C.J. Wilson (9-6, 2.82)
- Chen has two no-decisions in his last two starts for the Royals
- In his last start against the Mariners he left the game after 5 1/3 innings when Ned Yost might of left him in too long. Chen struckout six, allowing four runs on seven hits.
- Wilson who came over from the Rangers in the offseason will be facing the Royals for the first time this season. In his career he’s 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA against Kansas City in 13 career appearances.
Saturday, 9:05 pm – Will Smith (1-3, 7.97) v. Garrett Richards (3-1, 3.53)
- Smith who was drafted by the Angels in the seventh round of the 2008 draft will face his original team for the first time.
- Last week against the M’s he went 6 1/3 innings taking the loss giving up four runs on eight hits. He did strike out five walking just two Seattle hitters.
- Richards three wins have come against the Mariners, Diamondbacks and most recently the Tigers last week in Detroit. He went seven innings allowing three hits, striking out two with four walks.
Sunday, 2:25 pm – Luke Hochevar (6-8, 4.91) v. Jered Weaver (10-1, 2.20)
- Hochevar like Chen has no-decisions in his last two starts but the impressive stat is how he’s gone at least five innings in each of his last eight starts.
- Luke went seven innings against Minnesota on Friday night which the Royals lost 2-1 in 11 innings but struck out six without a walk allowing just a run.
- Weaver was masterful on Opening Night against KC and his only loss came on May 13 at Texas. Like Hochevar he went seven innings on Friday but picked up his 10^th win against the Rangers in Anaheim.

We’ve discussed the likelihood of the Royals trading closer Jonathan Broxton or right fielder Jeff Francoeur.

Broxton’s stock is higher of the two, as Francoeur has been ineffective most of the year and has a bad contract anchoring him in Kansas City. The Giants had reportedly sent scouts to Triple A to check out Storm Chasers and they’ve been linked recently to Broxton (but have also expressed interest in Chris Perez of the Indians). The Royals are asking for a lot and most teams may not be seeking him to fill their closer’s role, but rather for additional depth and setup roles. The Mets were rumored to be interested as well as the Angels and as long as Broxton’s save percentage is high, he’ll draw some interest, whether the peripherals match up or not.

The Royals want to move Francoeur to free up a spot for Wil Myers. Jim Bowden suggested they’re trying to convince teams to take him, but a .661 OPS is tough to unload, especially when there’s a 2013 salary of $7.5 million to consider.

Some other rumors involve bigger names, but less substantial chance of putting something together.

Alex Gordon was rumored to be a player of interest for the Yankees as recently as yesterday though the Ichiro trade probably puts that possibility to rest. Other teams could pop up if they’re looking for outfield help, though, and Gordon might be a player who’d fetch a big return.

If there’s heat on Gordon now, it may not cool off until after the deadline. There just hasn’t been as much reported on other teams being interested – but there could be negotiations nobody is letting leak. I’d guess there’s a very low likelihood he’ll be traded, though. The Royals seem content to stick to their asking price on their players.

In particular, Dick Kaegel reported yesterday that the Pirates had inquired about Billy Butler. Their offer was Justin Wilson of Pittsburgh’s Triple A team, but Jayson Stark said that they’re in “buy-low” mode so that’s a low-ball offer for the Royals lone All-Star.

Other Royals that are known to be available are Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Mijares. I’m sure the Royals would listen on Chris Getz if a team were to come calling.

The Royals have somewhat been involved in looking for pitching to trade for. There are reports that they’ve inquired on Matt Garza and Paul Maholm, while they also were said to be looking at Mariner Justin Vargas and were said to be scouting Wandy Rodriguez for at least one start. The goal is to get a starter who has some years of team control available. Their acquisition of Jeremy Guthrie might hold them for now.

Rany Jazayerli pointed out a distinction the Royals would do well to recognize. The Cubs are pricing pitchers like Garza as potentially helping two pennant races, this year’s and next year’s. The Royals are out of it now basically and would be foolish to pay the asking price for him to get just one year of significance out of him. I agree with that, though there are enough examples that some trade deadline deals are better in terms of the prospect value given up than offseason deals.

Dayton Moore isn’t afraid to deal this time of year – in 2010, he put three trades together to move Alberto Callaspo, Scott Podsednik, Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel. He has just over a week before the non-waiver trade deadline to put something together.

The Royals lost on Sunday in a fashion that bad teams make a habit of losing: with the same formula they always do. A team came into Kauffman Stadium over the weekend losers of five of their last seven and last in the division standings, only to outplay, out hit, and out execute the home Royals.

Sam Deduno, who might be the only player in baseball whose Baseball Reference page does not come up on the first page of a Google search, anonymously took the mound Sunday with just 21 career innings to his name, and no career victories. He is also 29 years old.

A career journeyman minor leaguer if there ever was one, Deduno is the quintessential “all arm, no feel” pitcher as evident by 15 walks in his 21 career innings in the major leagues, and a 5.1 BB/9 in 780 minor league innings.

He is everything that a Royals offense can’t defeat.

Even though Deduno did walk 3 in his 6 1/3 innings of work, 8 of the 27 batters he faced saw three pitches or less, and 17 of his total pitch count was thrown to Alcides Escobar alone. The Royals offensive approach of “swing first and ask questions later” struck again, and to no shock to anyone, they could only muster a single run against a pitcher who, in eight seasons of professional baseball, had only pitched 15 major league innings.

Every player is entitled to have a bad game. Every team is entitled to have a bad game. It’s when those bad games pile up, when the bad at-bats string together, when the bad seasons stack on top of each without any discernment of where one ended and the next began, that questions need to be asked.

This is year six of the Dayton Moore regime and while all Royals fans can disagree about the how long it takes to get a major league team up and running and playing at least .500 baseball, there should be no argument to the contrary that it shouldn’t take this long. Bad personnel decisions aside – each probably defensible when looked at on their own, but not collectively – after seven drafts, six off seasons, and six trading deadlines, an organization should have at least lucked into a few difference-making players at this point to help push the team’s record to respectability.

But where are they? Joakim Soria was taken in the Rule V draft, and for as much credit as the Royals deserve for drafting him, they deserve just as much credit for not cashing in and selling-high on a borderline useless player for a losing team at the peak of his value. Melky Cabrera performed well but was then traded to San Francisco (a trade I wholeheartedly agreed with), only to perform even better.

There are other solid personnel moves, sure. Mark Teahen for Chris Getz at this point looks like a “win” simply because Getz is still playing baseball (and playing well) and Teahen is not. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Zack Greinke all signed extensions at one point because they wanted to stay with the organization, but those signings felt a little more like effects of circumstance because they were already in uniform.

The Royals are 40-54 and mere percentage points are all that keep them out of last place in one of the worst divisions in baseball. For all negative comments directed at blog posts such as this one, and those on other Royals blog sites, for the piling on the Royals organization for all their wrong turns and missteps, shouldn’t there at some point be an equal amount of negativity directed at the organization that gives us the mountains of material? Shouldn’t there be some responsibility and accountability taken from the organization that, in year six, has yet to play within at least ten games of average?

No. The fans that are upset and desire success for a change are called condescending names like “critical spirit”.

The line of success has been drawn, erased, and drawn again for what must be the third time now. Continually reestablishing the goal line is either the best job security ploy in the history of success, or the greatest sign of futility in the history of business. Either way, it isn’t working.

It shouldn’t be about blame. The time for blame has passed. At this point it is about getting it right. Unfortunately for those currently running the Royals they’ve been saddled with the disappointment and disgust of a franchise that spent two decades in irrelevance before they took their positions. They’re both blessed and burdened for having one of the most engaged fan bases in baseball, so the amount of scrutiny they’re under can border on the ridiculous. But that’s not an excuse.

This, is year six, and while other perennially losing organizations have built and lost, and built again in the same time frame that it’s taken the Royals to not quite build, fans are being told that it’s still going to take just a few more years until the results will actually be tangible. Oof.

This is year six. It is time for results.

The Good

Well, I guess we need to start looking towards the future again, huh?

I don’t often get caught up in the hoopla over draft picks. Perhaps I’m a cynic (don’t roll your eyes) but I’d like to see a young player have at least a year of success before I start to concern myself with whether or not he’s going to be an impact big leaguer.

But when Kyle Zimmer was drafted I was incredibly happy (which for me is saying something) and downright giddy to see how he would translate into pro ball.

Attempts to actually sit down and write something substantial about what it is I like about him have proved fruitless, but Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball summed up all kinds of good stuff at The Hardball Times. In short: oh my.

Arm speed isn’t simply the natural gift that baseball people want you to believe (you can improve and change arm action, significantly), but Zimmer has it in abundance. And the ease with which he creates torque with his trunk by getting down the mound into his kick is beyond impressive.

Zimmer fits the profile: hard thrower and a good athlete with projectable movement skills and body sequencing. He’s everything that could make my pitching heart swoon.

The Bad

For the month of July the Royals are 5-13. Yeah, that’s bad.

Echoing the sentiments from above: teams are allowed to have bad stretches and even bad months. I’m sure there’s a stat out there that gives the number of losing months playoff teams have had in any given year over the past decade, and surely there’s going to be a few on that list. But it’s when the losing months continue to happen without a change in the roster that’s the most concerning. Specifically: right field.

Jeff Francoeur is last in all of baseball among outfielders in wOBA, OBP, RC+, and fWAR.

Read that sentence again.

By almost every objective measure Jeff Francoeur is playing like the worst outfielder in baseball this year. The worst. Meanwhile, Wil Myers slugs his way from ballpark to ballpark in the minor leagues, and the big-league Royals sit 14 games under .500.

This isn’t about leadership anymore with Francoeur, it’s about production. It was a bad mistake to lock up a historically average-at-best player before the market established. It’s an even worse mistake to continue play a player every day that is having such a negative effect on the rest of the team, while a clear replacement is available at no cost.

The idea that there is nowhere to play Myers in Kansas City right now is preposterous. There is a place for him to play, and it’s a pretty obvious one.

The Upcoming

Each of the next four series the Royals play will be against teams that are better than them. Of course, that isn’t saying much when you’re talking about one of the worst records in baseball, but a West Coast road trip scorching hot Anaheim and Seattle, followed by a home stand against Cleveland and Texas, would only seem to make things worse in the win-loss column for Kansas City.

And things can always get worse.

Francoeur eventually needs to vacate right field. (Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

If you’ve been reading our articles at Kings of Kauffman for a while, you might know that my first article ever published for this site attempted to legitimize signing Jeff Francoeur way back in the fall of 2010. I didn’t get very far, and I missed a few things that I could’ve used to bolster a case for a signing that I didn’t agree with. It’s just interesting to note that I’ve come all this way and now I’m trying to figure out what the Royals should do with Francoeur.

I was one of the guys who got into Frenchy fever in 2011, as I was pleasantly surprised by his contribution and production. His smooth and suave interview skills wooed me, and I soon found myself as a Francoeur fan. I’ve since woken up from that state of (dis)belief, as we all have this season, and now feel stuck with the guy. Talk about a mood change.

So, Francoeur went from batting .285/.329/.476 in 2011 to .252/.291/.384 so far in 2012, including a sweet .208/.238/.299 line in his last 151 plate appearances since peaking at a .284 batting average. To be fair, if Francoeur would’ve stayed around that peak line – which was similar to the 2011 line – the conversation would be very different. It’s funny what 36 games can do to our perception of players. But Francoeur plays everyday, striking out four times as often as he walks, and providing below-average offense (average is .266/.331/.444 for right fielders). And, to make matters worse, he’ll make $6 million this season, with about $2.75 million remaining to be earned for 2012. Oh, and there’s that nice $7.5 million that we have to look forward to next year.

And then there’s Wil Myers.

Though Myers has cooled off a bit, he’s still hitting .313/.402/.631 at Omaha, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s going to force his way to the Royals roster. That’s where things snag a bit: Myers is likely to be a right fielder. And Francoeur seems unlikely to yield playing time for Myers with that price tag dangling in the wind. Now that Lorenzo Cain is healthy, he’s our center fielder, so even if the Royals wanted Myers at center, they’d have to struggle with moving Cain out. And Alex Gordon is cemented into left field through at least 2015. So, the easiest solution seems to be removing Francoeur. He is the weakest link.

Did I say easiest? I think I meant hardest.

I guess Francoeur could have some trade value. He’s not necessarily the French god of right field, but there’s something. If Dayton Moore could trade Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel for more than buffalo chips, he’s got to get something for Francoeur, right? Don’t forget that Tim Collins came out of that deal with Atlanta, though the Royals soon discarded the other pieces from the return. Bundle Francoeur with a mediocre pitcher, and we could potentially see a similar deal. Well, except for that weight of the $7.5 million 2013 season dragging behind his moving truck. And except for the fans’ general love of Francoeur, though that seems to have cooled a bit this season. Also, we all have to remember that Moore is a big fan of Francoeur, so he may have a hard time letting him go.

Wil Myers is biding his time in Omaha. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

I guess what I’m saying is that it’s hard to decide what to do with Francoeur. The Royals have a player in Myers that could conceivably replace his ouput or even exceed it, though we won’t know for sure until Myers gets the call. You never know what Francoeur will do, but his recent stretch has made this decision more necessary, though no less difficult. Also, whether you believe in such things or not, the other guys seem to really enjoy Francoeur’s leadership and advice. It’s up to each person to decide if he believes that, but I trust the other players’ views and thoughts. If Francoeur really does make a difference in the clubhouse, it’s even more difficult to make this decision.

If Myers continues to hit well and Francoeur continues to flounder, something will have to happen. The problem is that the longer you wait, the lower Francoeur’s trade value gets, if it can go lower. But then you wonder if that’s even a concern. If we get peanuts for him and aren’t paying his contract, that’s that much more payroll that’s open for 2013 that could be used toward, say, a pitcher. With that thought, it’s almost worth giving him away.

This got a bit longer than I’d predicted, and I apologize. But I want to make it clear that this is a difficult matter to work through. It’s not going to be an easy decision, but it’s going to be a decision that arises at some point. With Myers banging on the door, it wouldn’t be useful to keep him out of Kansas City for another season and a half. If he continues to play like he has, the Royals have to be interested in having that bat in the lineup for every game. And that means removing the current right fielder.

It’s going to be a tough decision, but it has to be done at some point. Whether before this trading deadline, in the offseason, or during next season, Francoeur will almost assuredly have to make space for Wil Myers. It’s just a matter of time.

If there’s one thing that most bloggers and writers should stay away from doing is questioning the effort being put out by any given player. No matter what can be perceived by simply watching a game, whether on the TV or in person, there is no way anyone could ever know what is going through the mind of another person. It’s a reason I hate the “body language” argument so much: you can only interpret what you see, and what you see is full of incomplete information.

But enough is enough with Jonathan Sanchez.

The Royals lost Monday night – effectively trying to ruin the swagger of my posting day – after Sanchez gave up seven runs in 1 1/3 innings.

I’ll have to admit it has been a while since I have sat down and actually watched a complete Royals game. Heck, it’s been a while since I’ve sat down and watched even a couple innings. This season has quickly turned into a replica of the many before it, and the same bad baseball, terrible plate-disciplined offense, and loud contact pitching staff has made me put forth very little effort to watch my favorite team. Apparently, the same has happened to Sanchez with how much effort he’s willing to put into his pitching.

When watching the highlights of the two homeruns hit off of the Royals left hander I was struck by how little effort Sanchez was using to throw. I’ve made the comment before about his outings on Twitter that it just doesn’t look like he’s trying out there. There’s no explosiveness. There’s none of the all-out, back leg flailing effort from him that I was used to seeing when he was one of my favorite pitchers to watch like in this highlight from 2010.

And this is where it gets sticky. No fan knows for sure whether or not Sanchez has been told to slow down his delivery in an effort to improve his command (which is an incredibly flawed way of thinking, as I wrote here). No fan knows whether or not if Sanchez is hurt. No fan knows whether or not Sanchez is truly and absolutely and without any doubt, over-the-top upset with himself over the way he’s pitched. All anyone has to go off of is perception.

The perception, in the case, is a damning reality.

Not every athlete needs to be a fiery personality. Not every athlete needs to wear his or her emotions on their sleeves, showing the joys of victories and the pains of defeat. Not every athlete is built the same that way.

But what the fans see can sometimes unfortunately twist the narrative of how much a player cares. Continuing to get pounded by opposing teams, and then getting blasted by one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and then not showing even the slightest hint of frustration or pissed-offness, will wear on a fan base.

What’s worse is it has started to turn higher up. Jonathan Sanchez’s 2012 season to this point is no longer about Melky Cabrera and the trade that brought him to town. It’s about his lack of success, his lack of effort, his lack of production, and how the organization keeps going to him to start games.

Basing personnel decisions on a fan reaction is no way to run a franchise. But when the reaction is so perversely negative to a player’s attitude and perceived lack of desire to improve his production, onus is on the organization to act before their lack of desire to improve the team’s production is questioned.

That time may already be here.

The Good

Alcides Escobar.

I was wrong.

Escobar has been great this year; better than expected. The rise he’s taken from noodle-batted (h/t @devilfingers), all glove shortstop to near-elite level bat at the shortstop position is really quite something.

Yes, his batting average is largely a product of an obscenely high BABIP (nearly 100 points higher than a season ago), but that is just as much due to a near 5% increase in line drive percentage, as it is pure luck. And even though he’s never been known or perceived as a patient hitter, his walks are on pace to better last year’s (although still just for over 30, which leaves much to be desired) so there’s improvement in that area as well.

Even though I’m not of the opinion that the Royals “won” the Zack Greinke trade – that’s too much value to lose out of a single spot on the roster to have it not be replaced by four players – having Escobar as the every day shortstop is a nice security blanket to have. And even if this BABIP infused offensive statistics may be even the littlest bit misleading, Escobar is at least filling into more of the player profile he was supposed to have when he was first acquired.

The Bad

When I first started doing this format I thought it would be a good idea to force myself to come up with a “good” category, so I would have to write something positive about the team I am mostly negative about. However when the same movie is being played out on a nightly basis, the same movie that has been played too often over the past two decades, it gets difficult to continue look at the positives when they’re clouded by all the bad things that make the ending scene incredibly predictable.

These couple paragraphs of “bad” could again be spent on how the Royals continue to waste at-bats on Jeff Francoeur (who has turned back into Jeff Francoeur ), the overwhelmingly confusing struggles of Eric Hosmer, or the starting rotation that continues to spin in perpetuity in the sea of mediocrity, but there’s really one very succinct way to sum of the bad, courtesy of Carrington Harrison’s tweet this morning:

The Royals wins and games back totals on July 16^th in each of the last six seasons:

2012 – 38 (10.5)

2011 – 38 (12)

2010 – 39 (11)

2009 – 37 (11.5)

2008 – 43 (11.5)

2007 – 39 (16)

That should be knock-you-on-your-heels staggering. It caught me by surprise.

No matter how much talent is in the farm system, no matter how much talent is on the major league roster, no matter how much the perception may be that the organization is headed in the right direction, at some point, that perception needs to lead to reality in the “wins” column.

This is year six of the Dayton Moore regime. And while there are excuses to be made – some with validity, most without – about where the franchise was when he took over and injuries, there is no excuse for a team to be this depleted of starting pitching talent, and there is no excuse for this team to continually freely give away outs on offense whether through terrible strike zone judgment (look at this!) or awful base running.

Even if – if – the overall talent on the major league roster is better at this point than it has been at any point in the last five seasons, this team on the field still can’t get out of it’s own way in terms of the category that matters most. Wins.

And wins are the only thing fans should trust.

The Upcoming

Rather than preview the upcoming Royals schedule, which at this point looks to be pretty meaningless, I’ll just say these two words: Wil Myers.

Hopefully, hopefully soon, he’ll be what’s upcoming.

Will Mike Moustakas overtake Billy Butler in HR's and RBIs in the second half?. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City will get to .500 at the K

I really feel that the Royals will play better at home and my faith comes from what I was a part of during the All-Star break at the K. The city and fan base wants a winner and I think they’ll come out to support the team which will translate to the team feeling the love which will turn to wins.

Mike Moustakas leads the team in HR’s and RBIs

Get ready for more MOOOOOOOOSE! Chants in the second half of the season because I feel the Royals sophomore third baseman will continue to improve. He’s not far behind Country Breakfast in homeruns and runs batted in which I think he’ll overtake him in the second half.

Wil Myers won’t appear until August of September

Driving back from KC on Wednesday I decided to listen to both 610 (the Royals flagship) and 810 (the former rights holder) on the drive back. Flipping between both got me to thinking that Wil Myers might not be in Kansas City as soon as hoped. Dayton Moore was on 810 and he mentioned that Jake Odorizzi might be in triple-A the whole year and depending on how Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur do (or get moved) he’ll be a Storm Chaser longer.

Royals won’t make a move at the deadline

I’m gun-shy about what GMDM will do at the deadline, I’ve got fears that nothing will happen. Obviously many fans want Frenchy gone for the purpose of letting Myers play. With 2013 being now dubbed the year it seems prospects might not be moved to get pitching at this deadline which is the biggest need right now. I really want to be wrong on this prediction in the worse way. In the offseason probably will be a different story when the team will need to acquire pitching.

Kansas City finishes the season around .500

Not only will the team get to .500 at home which helps the overall record is why I make this prediction. The team might’ve finished the first half with a whimper but I feel this group will make strides like they did last year and will be a thorn in the side of those competing. I’m also of the belief that the starters will help the bullpen which also helps the W/L record. Better starting pitching will lead to a less taxing of the ‘pen which makes the entire staff better.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

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The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Sure, you could make the argument that losing games – in any sport, at any level – has to do mostly with the deficiencies of the roster and/or the flaws of management strategies, but with the Royals over the past six years (or 25 years) the same story gets written far too often during a loss. It’s just how it is.

What’s started to happen though is while there are fans that are upset with watching the same base running mistakes, the same awful plate discipline, and the same pitch-to-contact bad starting pitching, there are also those that point endlessly to the positives (of which there are many) as a reason for hope.

It’s understandable, and in some ways admirable, but when the rays of hope are continually clouded out by the storms of unoriginal bad baseball, there shouldn’t be much of a reason to fault the many that are still skeptical of progress.

This isn’t about the Royals, it’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary from all the losing.

While trying to think of a proper opening to this week’s Rant I kept finding myself coming back to that phrase as a way of justifying, – no, explaining – the feelings and tensions among most Royals fans after a loss. No fan base likes losing and when the losing turns to being just as laughable as it is predictable, there’s often nowhere else to turn with the disgust than to continually point to all the other (losing) instances that look the same, and categorizing it as such. It would be like watching a Farrelly Brothers movie: the jokes are the same, the writing is the same, and inevitably, the ending is the same.

Is there progress? Yes. Billy Butler has turned on the power this year and is finally being recognized for the truly special hitter he is, and is an All-Star. Despite Alex Gordon’s first three weeks of the season, he’s been great and continues to get on-base at a ridiculous rate (non-Joey Votto Division) and play terrific defense. Mike Moustakas has exceeded expectations and the bullpen has been spectacular. Alcides Escobar deserved an All-Star nod as well.

All of these things are points of progress and reasons that the future looks bright. Presumably. But there are still questions.

Questions about the roster construction,* questions about the rotation now and looking ahead, questions about this teams ability and lack of concern for walks on offense. To completely ignore these questions because either a) the Royals won a few games last week or b) because there are still positives out there, is irresponsible to the overall cause of the process.

*Why is Jason Bourgeois on this team?

One of my many complaints of sports media and the state of journalism in general in today’s landscape is the unwillingness of the writer or broadcaster to ever ask “why”, or challenge the status quo with the pertinent questions. Questions that, if posed correctly, are needed to hold those accountable that need to be so. Questions that if asked to the Royals would hold them accountable for a brand of baseball that still far too often looks like it did six years ago.

Teams lose games all the time. Good teams don’t lose games the same way all the time. And good franchises don’t lose games the same way all the time, for years and years in a row.

As a whole, the Royals fan base does tend to be a negative one, I think we can all admit that. I’m guilty, other writers on this site are guilty, and certainly writers on other sites are guilty. But that’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary of all the losing.

The Royals will win a few games this week. The Royals will probably win a few games next week too. But when another three-to-four game stretch like the one that was just played in Minnesota happens (and it will happen), the “negativity” will not be the fault of an overzealous, ignorant, jump-to-conclusion fan base; the fault will be of an organization that continues to lose games the same way it has for six years.

The Good

As much fun as it is to continually drive the Alex Gordon bandwagon, I can understand that it does tend to wear on the reader from time-to-time. I can.

But I also don’t think it gets talked about enough just how good a player Gordon is, or that this year’s version of the Royals would look far different, and far worse, if he were not on the team.

Gordon is currently sixth among all American Leaguers in fWAR, and according to advanced metrics (take those for what they’re worth on a two-plus-month sample) he has been the best defensive player out of any position. Holy schnikes.

Since finally breaking the .200 batting average mark on April 26, Gordon has hit .296/.388/.438 in 59 games.

Even though the power isn’t where it was a year ago, Gordon’s plate discipline and walks have far exceeded his career norm, making him almost the perfect type of leadoff batter. Plus, with the improved discipline, there’s more hope that the power will come too, putting him back into the “star” category that he was in a year ago.

The Bad

Even though one of the strengths coming into this year was supposed to be the offense (though, not by me) and it has thus far been an extreme disappointment, there’s really only one position that can be looked at as the biggest problem of them all: right field.

The struggles of Hosmer at first and the never-ending Getz/Betancourt experience at second and the noodle-bat of Jarrod Dyson in center are bad in their own way. But, all of those positions don’t have a clear answer, and at least in one of those cases the season-beginning starter at least performed well – to some degree of “well” – before being lost to injury.

The right field problem continues to be a mystery though as Wil Myers continues to be a terror in Triple-A, and the only reason (or at least presumably only reason) that he’s not currently in a major league uniform is because he doesn’t have a natural position that isn’t already being occupied by either an a) equally talented player or b) by a player that is better suited to perform defensively.

There is the Super Two argument, to be sure, but what seemed before as something that was more monetary and cost controlled in reason, seems to border more on the absurd now that Jeff Francoeur continues to see every (freaking) day playing time with little justification to do so. Especially now, that Myers seems all but perfectly ready for the next challenge, and most likely Super Two is out of the picture.

Francoeur’s re-signing with the Royals at the time was incredibly perplexing not solely for the reason that a player with a history of being average-at-best was locked up to two-years guaranteed before the outfield market established itself, but that Dayton Moore and the Royals were paying on a player’s career BABIP-induced year and not his historic norm. Hey, it happens, and at the time when Melky Cabrera turned down the same contract to stay in Kansas City, it may have seemed prudent to keep Francoeur around on a similar deal if for no other reason than to have a legitimate, everyday big-leaguer in the lineup.

But that would also call into question Francoeur’s relevance to be an every day major league player.

This season he’s been down right dreadful, and there’s no arguing that. The fact that he’s batted fifth every day without change is comedy fodder alone, but also that he’s accumulated a negative fWAR to this point shows just how unproductive he has been at what is supposed to be one of the more offensive positions on the field.

What’s even more discouraging is that even though there are numerous stories out there now about Francoeur’s impending departure via trade, the Royals seem to not really know if giving up Francoeur at this time and replacing him with Myers would be beneficial to the club.

Aside from Francoeur’s two, two-week hot streaks each year that make his numbers seem better than they really are, there doesn’t seem to be much at this point that he offers in terms of real value over a younger, cheaper, more athletic, and better hitter in Myers. But, in the #OurMissionTime2012 season, the supposed leadership (and already committed marketing campaigns) Francoeur brings to the table was thought to be a difference maker. Well, it is, just not in the way the Royals, and probably Royals fans, had hoped.

This thought isn’t meant to be reactionary, though in some ways, it probably is. Even though the Royals peaked last week at just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, the roster overall most likely isn’t good enough to compete or finish for the division crown. So dealing with Francoeur’s deficiencies with range, plate discipline, contact abilities, base running abilities, and consistency, may be buying an extra year of non-arbitration for Myers. May be.

But at some point it has to be about winning and winning now. Free passes are given far too often to players that are underperforming for the Royals organization, and this would appear to be another one of those occasions. Though, you could make the argument that the decision to continue to play Francoeur (though the decision to continue to bat him fifth is indefensible) is about winning – just winning three years from now while Myers has still yet to hit arbitration.

No matter the reason, a right fielder batting .256/.293/.387 (not all the far off from his career numbers, mind you) is killing the lineup.

The Upcoming

The Royals sure do know how to ruin a good thing. Just when it appeared the organization was back on track, there’s a hurdle thrown out in front of them and the players collectively fell over themselves. And it doesn’t get any easier.

After a favorable June schedule that resulted in another winning month for the club (14-12), July starts out with a punch to the stomach with four on the road in Toronto, and three on the road in Detroit before the All-Star break.

Now, Francoeur has a .263/.300/.402 line with seven homers and 24 RBI. He’s been streaky, with a rough April, a very good May and a June where he’s only recently started to drive the ball again. He’s struggled with small ailments that haven’t been problem enough to keep him out of the lineup, but they’ve limited his range in the outfield.

His name is coming up in trade speculation these days, as his veteran leadership could be attractive to a few teams looking for corner outfield help.

Why Teams Want Jeff Francoeur

Frenchy touches them all. Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The qualities that most use to describe Francoeur are often tied to his intangibles. He’s a former phenom who’s flamed out and has worked his way back, playing with the Rangers in their first World Series and having an great 2011. His work ethic is lauded, and he’s credited as being the very model of a “clubhouse guy”. He’s a fan favorite and often goes out of his way to show appreciation of his fans, as evidenced by his Bacon Tuesday antics in Oakland and his penchant for tossing baseballs into the stands with $100 bills wrapped around them.

What that has to do with winning ball games isn’t clear. I’m usually one to lean on the numbers, and since you can’t put a number on “leadership” it’s impossible to quantify. I do think it has an effect, though. With a group of young players around, he’s the guy who shows them how to be a big leaguer in the day to day grind. He’s noted as being a great teammate. To front offices, that stuff matters.

He also has stretches of power, reasonable enough speed and one of the best outfield arms in the game.

He hustles and wants to make the big play.

Why Teams Might Shy Away

Let’s face it, Francoeur’s reputation is one of a hacker. He’s never seen a pitch he didn’t want to swing at. One of his offseason hobbies is golf. The guy just loves to swing.

When he connects, he can be a 20 homer guy and last year reached that mark while also adding 47 doubles.

The flipside is that he doesn’t draw a lot of walks, strikes out a lot and doesn’t have the surplus of power to overcome either shortcoming. He’s the last guy you want up if you need to work a long count, as he’s often going after the first pitch in the at bat (he’s done so 35 times in 2012 and has a cool seven hits to show for it for a .200 average).

The second year on his contract might keep teams away, too. If he had just a one year deal, the investment wouldn’t be so great that a team would feel saddled with his contract if he doesn’t perform.

Why the Royals Would Want to Trade Him

With Alex Gordon‘s contract extension, he’s clearly the guy in left field long term. The Royals still have years of team control on both Jarrod Dyson and Lorenzo Cain if they feel either can be the full time center fielder or if they choose to platoon the two. They have David Lough in Omaha who could possibly handle a role as well if pressed into action.

But who am I kidding? Trading Francoeur opens up right field for Wil Myers.

That’s the main reason the Royals would trade him. Myers may be able to play center field, but most agree that he’d be out of position there. He may be called up while Francoeur is still on the team in 2012 and play there while the Royals shop Frenchy, but he’s a short term option in center.

To the right team, Francoeur would have value that could return a young arm that could contribute or a high-risk, high-reward kind of prospect.

Other Potential Road Blocks

I mentioned his contract, which isn’t so big that it’s a burden, especially to a big market team, but being on the hook for the second year could discourage teams.

There’s also the issue that to trade Francoeur, the perceived value the Royals may have of him may not match the actual value he has on the trade market. Dayton Moore signed Francoeur when he was working his way up the Braves ladder and the running joke on the internet is that Moore has an unhealthy obsession with Francoeur.

Basically, you’d have to find a GM who likes Francoeur MORE than Dayton Moore. Does one exist?

The Royals might also see themselves as still in the race and won’t want to part with a veteran in favor of a rookie.

Teams Who May Have Interest

On Wednesday afternoon, the big buzz was that the Dodgers may have interest. Jon Morosi suggested that they might be a fit especially in light of an injury to Andre Ethier. With Matt Kemp already on the shelf and not set to return until after the All Star break, Ethier suffered an oblique strain, which could take a while to heal. He’s had battles with injuries at other points in his career too, so his recovery may not be quick or without setbacks.

The Dodgers started out hot, carrying the best record in the majors for a while but have faded and now are tied with the Giants for the division lead in the NL West. Without Kemp and Ethier, they’ll be hurting and a veteran bat would be on the top of their list.

The Nationals could be a fit as well. Big money outfielder Jayson Werth has been out since early may with a broken wrist and may not be ready for a rehab assignment until late July. The Nats are in first in the NL East right now but Atlanta and New York have been playing well. A mix of Rick Ankiel (.680 OPS), Steve Lobardozzi (.655 OPS) and Roger Bernandina (.688 OPS) have been patrolling the outfield with Bryce Harper. Mike Morse can play out there too, but he’s only just returned from his own injury battle this month.

Right nearby, the Orioles might look to add someone. Nick Markakis has been hurt for a while and Endy Chavez, Ryan Flaherty and others have tried to fill in around Adam Jones. The Orioles could use another bat to stay in the running in the AL East.

Potential Return 

This is the part of trade discussions that I’m awful at. The Dodgers have made odd trades in the past (they traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake), so who knows who they might want to give up. In 2010, they traded one of their top catching prospects at the time, Lucas May, and a wild card pitcher in Elisaul Pimental to the Royals for Scott Podsednik. It wasn’t a steal but it was a decent return for a one year outfielder with average production at best.

I think the Royals would look to bring in a young arm. There wouldn’t be a high-profile prospect involved unless Francoeur heated up dramatically in the next couple of weeks and other teams got desperate, but they could get someone from a Double A team with some promise and maybe a throw-in with him.

The Royals bullpen is supposed to be the strength of its pitching staff, and if you review almost any pitching statistic, you’ll find this is true.  And who should be the cream of the crop in this group?  The closer of course.  The closer should dominate opposing batters, intimidating them into submission during the final inning of a game.  While Broxton’s ERA has been solid, by almost every other measurement you’ll discover that he is teetering on the brink and in my opinion his luck may run out soon.

Of the Royals five most often used relief pitchers (including Aaron Crow, Jose Mijares, Kelvin Herrera, and Tim Collins) Broxton possesses the highest WHIP, the lowest strikeout ratio, and the most H/9 (hits per 9 innings.)  This type of performance will eventually impact his luck-induced ERA performance and will result in runs scored, lots of them.  When Broxton waddles to the mound, the only hearts he strikes fear into are in the pounding chests of nervous Royals fans.

I'm just not that into you Jonathan Broxton (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Maybe this is a little bit shallow of me to say, but I prefer my team’s players at least have the appearance of athleticism and not wear pants that two teammates can fit inside.  Broxton looks more like a reject from a Tommy Boy casting call than a professional baseball player.  And I know it’s results that count, not appearance, but really…  Broxton’s body is his tool, it’s what allows him to be a major league pitcher.  If he was a serious athlete who truly wanted to excel, he’d drop 100 pounds and get himself in shape.

Broxton’s performance is like a locomotive whose wheels are coming off, but it just hasn’t jumped the track yet.  He’s a train wreck waiting to happen.

I attended one of the recent interleague games in Houston and had a chance to watch Broxton and the other pitchers take a few swings in the batting cage during pregame warmups.  There was a lot of discussion about a few balls that Broxton sent into the left field seats and off the outfield wall.  It was a pretty impressive display – for a pitcher.  But I still don’t think any of the fans who were oohing and aahing at his hitting prowess were excited at the prospect of watching Broxton and his lifetime .000 batting average step into the box.  Can you imagine Jonathan hitting a ground ball to the shortstop and trying to “leg it out.”  The mental image is jarring.

The good news is that there is a solution to this problem.  I recommend the Royals point to Broxton’s stellar ERA, his track record as an All-Star closer, package him with Jeff Francoeur (sorry Frenchy, I love ya, but you have to go – #FreeWil) and try to get something, anything, in return before they both implode and lose all their value.

Dayton Moore should take some time out during the All-Star festivities, visit with his General Manager buddies that attend the game, and find a new home for both of these guys.  Frenchy has value as a clubhouse leader & goodwill ambassador, and Broxton could potentially be a decent 7^th inning guy – that has to be worth something.

The time is now Dayton.  Find a deal, pull the trigger, cut our losses before Broxton and Frenchy lose their value, and let’s move forward to the future with Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera as our closer.

Let me give you an example.  I was recently looking at the Royals team history page and discovered something interesting.  If you review the column of “Top Players” you’ll see a number of recognizable names of athletes that contributed mightily to the success (or relative success) of each specific season.  You’ll find Alex Gordon, Amos Otis, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Beltran, David Cone, Johnny Damon, Kevin Appier, Zack Greinke, John Mayberry, Dan Quisenberry, Willie Wilson, Joakim Soria, etc. and of course George Brett – a veritable who’s who of Royal’s history.  You’ll also see Jose Offerman, Mark Teahen and a couple other mild surprises.

This made me think…  What is, or what should be, the definition of the Top or Best player?  Baseball Reference defines the Top Player as the individual with the highest WAR (Wins Against Replacement) rating of any player on the team.  WAR is a tangible analysis that takes both offense and defense into account, but it doesn’t make any attempt to measure leadership or intangibles, and it seems to favor pitchers slightly in my opinion.

5 time All Star Mike Sweeney was never the best player on the Royals according to Baseball Reference (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Let me give you an example of the lack of leadership skills and intangibles in the WAR calculation.  Remember Mike Sweeney?  There is a lot of mixed opinion about Mike, and deservedly so, yet he put up some dynamite offensive numbers for a few years combined with the ability to hold his own at first base, and he was the undeniable leader of the Royals during his time as Captain.  Yet this 5 time All Star who hit .333 with 144 RBIs, 71 walks, and a league leading 15 HBPs in 2000, and a 2002 season that saw him hit .340, .563 slugging, and 148 OPS+ was never the “Top Player” for the Royals according to Baseball Reference and his WAR rating.  In 2002, that honor went to Paul Byrd.

What do you think of that?  Was Paul Byrd a more important piece of the puzzle for the Royals in 2002 than Mike Sweeney and his .340 batting average? (.340 is 2^nd only to George Brett’s .390 in 1980, and how would you like to have a .340 hitter on the Royals right now?)  In 2002, Paul Byrd was 17-11 with a 3.90 ERA and he led the league with 7 complete games – he was definitely a very valuable pitcher, but I don’t think his performance could be defined as “dominating.”  Paul Byrd appeared in 33 games.  Mike Sweeney played in 126 (less than a full season due to the beginning signs of his many recurring back issues), had the first straight steal of home by a Royal in over 20 years, was named to his 3^rd consecutive All-Star game, led the league in defensive assists by a 1^st baseman – and he was the Captain of the team.  But this wasn’t good enough to be the Royals “Top Player.”

Obviously, my definition of the best player on the team is going to differ from other fans, and from other experts as well.  My subjective definition simply asks, “Who was the player the Royals could least afford to do without?”  In 2002, I believe the answer has to be Mike Sweeney.

Before the 2012 season began, who did you think the Royals’ best player would be this season?  If you’re like most of the rest of us, you may have thought, or at least hoped, it would be Eric Hosmer.  If so, those hopes were dashed weeks ago as we’ve witnessed one of the most dramatic sophomore slumps in recent memory.  A few of you may have predicted Alex Gordon, or maybe Joakim Soria prior to his injury.  Predictions are based on hopes, and as a Royals fan you certainly know that hopes are often dashed.

If you said Billy Butler, you were pretty much on target.  (Although according to WAR rating, Alex Gordon is on top for the second year in a row – I don’t agree in 2012.)  However, I am hesitant to name a DH as the best player citing the same reservations many have for naming a pitcher as MVP.  And unless a Royals pitcher is completely and utterly dominating (see Steve Busby, Dennis Leonard, David Cone, Zach Greinke, or Bret Saberhagen) I have similar misgivings.

For 2013 we have several potential candidates for best player.  I’ll list my nominations below and include the odds that I think I’m right.  And, I’ll also acknowledge that there’s no possible way any reader will agree with me 100%.

Could Mike Moustakas become the best player on the Royals? (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Mike Moustakas:  The improvement Mike has shown from 2011 to 2012 has been nothing short of breathtaking.  He is much more comfortable at the plate this year, and in the field he doesn’t even look like the same player.  I believe Mike’s personality has many leadership qualities and he’s maturing into a presence that will almost certainly make him the best player on the team at some point in his career.  For 2013, I’d say the odds of Mike being the Royals best player, the guy they can least afford to do without, are about 3 to 1.

Eric Hosmer:  Although he hasn’t come close to fulfilling our expectations this year, Hosmer’s potential is so tantalizing that I have to put him near the top of the list.  I believe Eric is just a tweak or two away from “righting the ship” and getting back on track to becoming the offensive powerhouse we all know he can be.  His defense is still solid, but it may take a while for his personality to mature into a true clubhouse big dog.  I’ll put Hosmer’s odds of being the best player in 2013 at 5 to 1.

Alcides Escobar:  If you told me I could only watch one play from each Royals game, I would pick the inevitable web gem that Esky turns in virtually every night.  It is truly a thrill to watch Alcides display his otherworldly defensive skills while protecting the left side of the diamond.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that after watching him for less than two seasons he may not be the absolute best defensive shortstop I’ve ever seen, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone better than him.  Escober is hitting around .290 at a premium position and I believe the only thing that could potentially limit his ability to be a great club house leader are his English language skills.  Alcides is my dark horse candidate for best player in 2013 and he’s my favorite to watch play in 2012.  I’ll put his odds at 10-1.

Jeff Francoeur:  I believe Jeff is the closest thing the 2012 Royals have to a clubhouse leader and his rocket arm and intangibles are great.  Who’s the guy you see chest bumping his team mates every night and cheering them on with one of the most upbeat personalities in the majors?  It’s Frenchy.  Who else tosses baseballs wrapped in $100 bills and gets into hilarious mock disputes with opposing mascots?  Frenchy’s power numbers are way down this year and his average has dipped, so his on-field performance is not trending in the right direction which makes him a risky wager.  I also wouldn’t bet on Jeff being “da man” in 2013 due to the fact that he may not even play in a Royals uniform.   If he is still wearing Royals blue in 2013, I would put Francoeur’s odds at 15-1.

Wil Myers:  At some point in 2012, no matter how hard the Royals brass try to hold him back, he’ll force his way to Kansas City.  And he may light it up offensively when he arrives, but his defense still needs work and there’s almost no way anyone can be a true clubhouse leader in his first or second year.  Odds 30-1.

Billy Butler:  Great DH, one of the best in baseball.  But as I explained earlier, I just don’t think a DH can be the best player.  If a DH is your best player, then your team is in trouble.  Odds 30-1.

Jake Odorizzi:  See “Wil Myers.”  Odds 50-1.

Alex Gordon:  Gold Glove defensive left fielder who has been a disappointment at the plate this year.  He’s a solid contributor and I want him on my team, but he’s not a vocal clubhouse leader and has little chance to be the best player on the team in my rating system.  In 2013, I’d rate him at 50-1.

There are a few other players who have a shot at being the best player, but all of them have significant question marks either because they may not recover from injuries (Joakim Soria and Danny Duffy), they haven’t played in the majors long enough for us to get a good sense of their performance (Salvador Perez), or because Dayton Moore hasn’t traded for them yet or signed them as a free agent (Zach Greinke – hint, hint…)

And don’t get me started about relief pitchers.  Unless you are Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry, or Joakim Soria in his prime, you can’t even be considered the Top Player on the team.  It would be the same as voting the field goal kicker as the top player on an NFL team – it’s not going to happen.

Could Yuniesky Betancourt be the best player? Haha, just kidding! Almost got you, didn't we? (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Yuniesky Betancourt:  I’ll just skip straight to the odds.  10,000,000,000 to 1.  I had to throw him in just for kicks.

The biggest reason we have difficulty selecting the potential top player is because the Royals are so young.  Most of the time I believe that’s a good thing and not a bad thing, but it causes them to be inconsistent as they go through the struggles of figuring out how to succeed in the big leagues, and most of them simply have not matured into the true leaders that they will hopefully one day become.

I still believe that we are two solid starting pitchers away from being a contending team and I’m holding on to hope that we find these hurlers somewhere, either in the farm system, through trades or free agency, before the start of the 2013 season.  When this happens, we’ll find our team playing in October, and this is the time when true clubhouse leadership emerges and performance on the field has a historical impact on your team and your legacy.   When we play in October, that’s when we’ll definitely learn who is the best player on this team.

“It takes a different kind of skillset to play baseball. You don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball.”

Originally this was supposed to be a post about Kyle Zimmer and why I love the pick, and the potential of the athlete, so much. I was going to break down his delivery and his stuff (with some help from some Internet friends) and project his future from my rather limited perception of him. However after overhearing what I was sure was just a father repeating some Neanderthal narrative about how the kind of physical shape baseball players are in, I couldn’t think of anything else.

In that instant amidst, Tweeting something obnoxious and having our grocery list recited to me, my brain called an audible and I couldn’t get the phrase “you don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball” out of my head. I was stuck.

Everything that I had ever fought, every traditional mindset, every head-in-the-sand nonsensical outlook on the training of pitchers and baseball players was summed up in that father’s seemingly insignificant sentence.

Too often people confuse athleticism with strength or the ability to jump high, or run fast. Those traits do play a role in being an athlete for sure, but to mischaracterize baseball players as “non athletes” or “not very athletic” because you don’t see them at an NFL-style combine in their underwear running and jumping does not mean they’re not athletes. They’re some of the best athletes.

Baseball is a stagnant sport. There’s lots of standing around, lots of explosive movements required from a standing start, and lots of hip flexibility and reactionary skills that a “non athlete” couldn’t do. Do not confuse physical shape, or how a player looks with how athletic he is.

As I mentioned on the podcast I was on recently, in my opinion the true definition of athleticism is how well someone controls his or her body.

In order to generate the necessary torque to throw a baseball or swing a bat, the level of body control to fire reflexes and the body sequencing required to turn on a 99 mph fastball to hit it 400 feet is super athletic. The ability to repeat pitching mechanics to generate high velocities with control is super athletic.

Stop it with the idea that baseball players aren’t athletes. And if you’re having this opinion, please don’t repeat it out loud, there might be someone the next table over who just wants to enjoy a quiet night with his wife.

The Good

Well, winning is a lot more fun than losing. After the horrific start culminating in a 12 game losing streak, the Royals have been one of the better teams in baseball (at least record wise) and have pulled themselves to within 5 games of the division lead. How’s about that?

In the Rant a couple weeks ago I said that June (admittedly an idea stolen from someone else) would be a huge month for the Royals because the schedule turned in their favor, and the offense couldn’t be that bad for very long. Well, the offense still isn’t great, but with Alex Gordon going all on-base machine since returning to the leadoff spot, the offense has turned things around to help the bullpen win some games.

Yes, the bullpen.

Because, this is going to be the theme of the entire season, the bullpen continues to be amazing. Simply. Amazing.

Led by Tim Collins (imagine that visual) the revolving door of the final three-to-four spots in the bullpen haven’t been as big a detriment as one would normally associate with the taxi squad. Stability in Collins, Aaron Crow, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Mijares, and now Greg Holland, has allowed the Royals to not only stay in games to come back to win late, but have logged multiple innings to protect leads.

For all the negative things I’ve said about Dayton Moore’s roster construction over the last year-and-a-half on this site, one big positive has been his ability to put together a bullpen. And this year, he’s done one helluva job.

The Bad

For all the talk about Billy Butler not being “clutch”, and for all the talk about how Billy Butler doesn’t drive in runs, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot being said about how Jeff Francoeur only has 18 RBI, and we’re more than two months into the season.

Sure there are some things to like about Francoeur’s game like his arm or his occasional hot streaks, but his negative points get overshadowed by the media perception of him being such a great guy/baseball player, for what really only amounts to him having a recognizable name.

While I don’t pay much attention to stats with runners in scoring position they’re still fun to look at, especially when they can be manipulated to prove the point I’m trying to make.

During his career Francoeur has hit .270/.325/.419 with runners in scoring position. For Butler, during his career, he has hit .309/.392/.471 with runners in scoring position.

You know what’s great about those numbers? With runners in scoring position Butler’s stats are actually better than his career numbers (.297/.360/.462), contrary to what the narrative would have you to believe because of some arbitrary RBI total.

I only bring this up because the highly esteemed, and incredibly readable Jeff Parker brought up yesterday how during the broadcast, the Royals announcers went completely out of their way to talk about how Butler went a stretch of eight games without registering an RBI. Meanwhile, as Jeff pointed out, nothing is ever said of Francoeur for what he doesn’t do well.

This isn’t yet another way to sneak a Butler post into a post about something else (or maybe it is), and this is probably much to do about nothing. The reason Butler gets so much scrutiny from fans and the Royals might be because he has the potential to be one of the very best hitters in baseball (he already is), and the reason Francoeur skates by with nary a word of his deficiencies is because he has the potential to be merely one of the very average players in baseball (he already is).

Francoeur shouldn’t be given the pass that he seemingly is, and he shouldn’t have his spot in the lineup granted to him without competition, also like he seemingly is.

Jeff Francoeur is what he’s always been: a player that should probably be platoon-only as a lefty-masher that plays some decent defense. And if he’s the reason for either a) keeping Wil Myers in Triple-A or b) forcing Wil Myers to a position he mostly can’t handle everyday at the major league level, then the Royals need to find a different reason.

The Upcoming

It would be foolish not to mention the weekend home series against the Cardinals, but I’m sure we’ll have enough of that here over the course of the week to more than fill the readers’ appetite.

What has to be mentioned though is how the Royals are this close to playing really meaningful games again, and despite the depletion of the bullpen and the lack of production from the rotation, six more against NL opponents and three of those being against a team that on paper they’re better than (Houston), leaves even me optimistic.

And for me, that’s saying something. This is starting to get really fun.

Who should be the scapegoat for another year of disappointing Royals baseball?  Whose head needs to roll as a result of the team’s poor showing?  Dayton Moore? Kevin Seitzer?  How about Rex Hudler?

Should Ned Yost be the scapegoat for what has been a disappointing season so far? (Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the interesting aspects of social media is that it provides a real time peek into the thoughts of hard core sports fans.  Every evening you can sit down at your computer and watch the commentary during the game.  One of the most frequent themes on Twitter has been that Ned Yost is to blame for this disappointing season and that he should be taken to the nearest bus terminal with a ticket to Anywherebuthere Town, USA.  But I say – not so fast.

Before I explain my thoughts, let’s take a peek into the world of social media and look at just a few of the many thousands of comments concerning Ned Yost:

• Aaron Stilley @Royal_Heritage – You may say Yost is a by-the-book manager, but today I saw him pioneer the use of a late inning defensive downgrade while leading!
• Scott Thomas @hosmermania – Ned Yost=Hank Hill. Old fashioned grumpy guy who hunts. Never does anything new. Very predictable.
• Mike Engel ‏@michaelengel – How many people in uniform were surprised by the bunt? One? The left field ball boy? #Yosted
• Josh Green ‏@Jashg84 - As long as Yost is in there, it will continue like this unfortunately
• 1Yankh8r ‏@1Yankh8r – Can’t wait to see how the Spin Doctors in the Yost camp sell last night’s debacle. #FireYost

#FireYost has become a popular hashtag.  So is #Yosted.  And fans are right to be upset.   Some of Yost’s decisions this season on the surface appear to be nearly inexplicable.  But let’s take a closer look.

I think the best way to judge a manager is to evaluate what he is doing with the talent he has been given.  For instance (I realize this is a very unrealistic example, but I’m trying to make a point), what if one participant in the Indy 500 was forced to ride a bicycle – how well do you think this person would do and where do you think he or she would finish?  You would expect him to finish last because the race wasn’t fair, he wasn’t given the same sleek expensive race car to drive as all the other competitors.  You know what I’m getting at, don’t you?

The Royals payroll is about $61 million.  That’s about $2.5 million per victory so far this year.  Wins are going for about $5 million each in Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) this year, and almost $6 million in Boston.  By comparison, if higher payroll means greater talent, then Ned Yost isn’t playing all that badly with the hand he’s been dealt.  The Rays do an awesome job at less than $2 million per victory.

Are the Royals going to bunt again?!? (Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE)

Still, how do you explain all the crazy managerial decisions Yost has made?  There have been times I’ve wanted to tear out what little hair I have left every time I watch Yuniesky Betancourt trot out to 2^nd base or yet another failed and ill-advised bunt attempt go awry.

The Royals have been caught stealing more than any other team in the American League except one.  This is pretty remarkable considering 10 teams (in the American League alone) have stolen more bases than the Royals.  Just imagine how bad this statistic would be if Jarrod Dyson hadn’t been playing recently.  Aren’t the Royals young and athletic?  Don’t most of them have average speed or better, with the possible exceptions of Billy Butler and Humberto (why did we trade for him again?) Quintero?  Are the coaches sending the green light at the wrong time?  Are the players using poor technique?

How many times this year have you seen a Royal caught napping and picked off the bases?  Many more times than I care to recall.  Is poor coaching to blame?

There are a couple schools of thought regarding a stable lineup.  Some people say it’s beneficial to a player to always know his role and where he’ll bat when he comes to the stadium.  Yost obviously didn’t attend this school.  Yost believes in juggling the lineup as if it were a bowling ball, a power saw, a flaming torch, and a butcher knife.  Unfortunately, when you play with fire, somebody is going to get burned.

I wish I knew why many of the Royals are slumping at the plate this year.  Is this Ned Yost’s fault?  Last year, Kevin Seitzer was considered to be a hitting guru on the level of Charlie Lau.  This year, Hosmer was unable to hit his way out of a paper bag for six weeks, Alex Gordon is on track for 12 home runs compared to 23 last year, and the team is trending toward scoring about 100 fewer runs than last season.  Is this Kevin Seitzer’s fault?  Is he not providing the same quality guidance and instruction as last year?

So how good are these Royals and how much talent does Ned Yost have to work with?  There’s really no way to know.  With acknowledgement that some may disagree with me, the 2012 Royals may have one of the major’s best defensive shortstops in Alcides Escobar, one of the best defensive catchers (when Salvador Perez returns – please hurry), the best defensive left fielder in Alex Gordon, the strongest outfield arm in Jeff Francoeur, possibly the major’s most improved player in 3^rd baseman Mike Moustakas, the player with the greatest potential in Eric Hosmer, the speediest bench player in Jarrod Dyson, one of the top hitters in a position loaded with talent, DH Billy Butler, the hardest throwing relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera, and a very capable bullpen. But without decent starting pitchers, there is simply no possible way to know how good this team is.

The pitching anchor of the 2012 Royals is Bruce Chen.  Just let that soak in for a moment.  On opening day this season, we sent Bruce Chen to the mound in Anaheim to face Jered Weaver.  Weaver was an All-Star and 2^nd in the Cy Young balloting last year.  Chen’s heater is about 84 mph.   The Royals brought a knife to a gunfight that day and they were shutout 5-0 in a swift 2 hours and 22 minutes, the 2^nd shortest game of the season – it was merciful and quick.  This isn’t the way you want to start a season and it set the tone for what was to come.

Bruce Chen is the Royals #1 pitcher. No really, I'm not kidding. (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I don’t blame Bruce Chen.  Bruce is a very likeable guy who gives it everything he has every time he walks to the mound.  But he shouldn’t be in a position where a team looks to him as the stopper.  Chen earns $4.5 million per year.  Weaver earns $14 million.  It’s like sending your funny cousin Joey into the ring to face Mohammed Ali in his prime every five days.  Who would do that?   Why are the Royals doing it?  It’s insane!  How can we blame Ned Yost for this injustice?

I believe it all boils down to pitching.  Pitching is the lifeblood of a baseball team.  Wins and losses begin with the guy who takes the mound in the 1^st inning.  Pitching holds the other team down, keeps your side in the game, and provides your teammates with a chance to win.  A baseball team simply cannot be successful without strong starting pitching.

When you watch a team play that has poor starting pitching (aka The Royals), anything else you see on the field is an attempt to make up for this shortcoming.  Everyone else must extend themselves and try to do things they aren’t capable of doing.  They must try to steal when the timing isn’t right.  They constantly bunt in a desperate attempt to move runners into scoring position.  They try to hit 6-run homers when nobody is on base.  The manager flip flops the lineup trying to find a winning combination that will overcome the lack of talent on the mound.  He’ll move the potential All-Star 1^st baseman into right field trying to squeeze one more drop of offense out of a team that must overcome a mishmash hodge podge rotation cobbled together from castoffs, 2^nd level trades, and Independent Leagues while waiting for the top prospect hurlers in the minors to one day, some day, fulfill their potential.

So, who’s fault is it that the Royals don’t have a major league caliber starting pitching rotation?  In my opinion, it isn’t Ned Yost’s fault.  He can only manage with the team he’s been given.  He doesn’t draft, he doesn’t make trades, it’s not his main responsibility to evaluate talent and bring prospects up from the minors.  It’s his job to coach the team on the field.  No doubt he overcompensates and ends up doing things that look stupid in retrospect, but many of these decision are made in desperation while attempting to surmount the overwhelming pitching handicap the Royals have been saddled with.  All things considered, it simply isn’t possible or fair to call Ned Yost the worst manager in the major leagues, and we won’t be able to make this assessment accurately until and unless the Royals Front Office provide him with a competitive rotation.

You may say the Royals can’t afford to compete in the free agent wars and their small market revenue stream places them in an unwinnable position.  Well, no doubt it makes things more difficult, but I don’t see anyone in Tampa making excuses for their low payroll, and they are winning.  And by the way, they’re winning with an abundance of talented young pitching.  Just sayin’.

Myers ripped a line drive over the left field fence.

Wil Myers - looking to the future. Photo: Minda Haas

In 22 games and 89 plate appearances in Omaha, Myers has convinced many (including myself) that he’s ready for the big leagues. He has eight homers, 15 extra base hits. He’s carrying a .325/.371/.723 line in Omaha and .336/.398/.728 when you combine that with his time in Northwest Arkansas. He’s hit 40 extra base hits – and it’s June 9th.

After a stellar offseason that included a standout performance in the Arizona Fall League, the struggles of 2011 are behind him. He’s not fighting fluke injuries like last year, he’s a year older and he’s displaying power that scouts felt he was capable of, but weren’t sure when it would manifest.

Wil Myers is ready for the Kansas City Royals, but the Kansas City Royals may not be ready for him. Yet.

It’s frustrating to see a player roll over competition like Myers has done while the big league team struggles to get more than three runs many nights. Fans clamor for a call up of the new big name on the scene and get upset when it doesn’t happen. I get the frustration, but in the big picture, here are two factors in play that are keeping Myers in Omaha:

1. Where to play him?

While Myers has dabbled in center field a bit at both levels this year, he’s only been a professional outfielder for about 18 months after being drafted as a catcher. He’s by no means a budding everyday center fielder. He could hold his own I’m sure, but he’s much more suited for right field, which is currently patrolled by Jeff Francoeur and his offseason contract extension.

Francoeur is a Royal through next season unless they happen to trade him, which would be an option that likely won’t materialize until closer to the trade deadline in July. The Royals seem intent to keep trotting Jarrod Dyson out nearly every day, Alex Gordon isn’t going to sit and Francoeur’s not going to be a part-time player. When Myers gets up, it’ll be to play everyday. They could put him in center, but it might be an adventure. This isn’t as big an issue as:

2. Myers’s potential Super Two status:

Baseball’s arbitration system is part of the Royals considerations. Typically, a player becomes eligible for arbitration after three seasons. Until that point, they make around the league minimum, which is handy for teams who have solid young players but who don’t have to commit much of their payroll to them right away.

If a player plays 172 days in the big leagues, it’s considered a year of service time. There are usually around 183-186 days within a baseball season, so often, a team will keep a player in the minors before purchasing their contract and promoting them to the big leagues. That allows the team to have full control of their rights for a full six years plus the time they accrue in that first year. For instance, Eric Hosmer debuted on May 6 last season. He built up 146 days of service time, so the Royals have his rights for the rest of this year and for five more full years after.

That kind of clever timing really benefits a team, so to keep ownership from manipulating things too far in their advantage, baseball recognizes some players as Super Two players which is defined in the CBA as a player with between 2 years, 86 days of service time and three years of service time. The top 22% of players in service time within that group qualify for arbitration, meaning they have two years around the league minimum, but they usually get a good raise in their third year. Essentially, it gives that player four years of arbitration rather than three.

For a small market team, that could mean a lot. In the Royals case, they’ll have Eric Hosmer almost certainly as a Super Two player after next season and Mike Moustakas may be in there as well. If Wil Myers fell into that category, contracts start adding up quickly. Consider players like Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. All three were Super Two players and Pence’s salary jump from $439K in his second season to $3.5 million was the smallest jump of the trio. Howard and Fielder saw their first year of arbitration pay out at $7 million and $10 million respectively. Once that first arbitration number is set, it usually doesn’t go down, so the Royals could be on the hook for millions more than if they’d waited.

For what it’s worth, Myers could be called up today and might sneak outside the top 22% and not qualify for Super Two status, but the only period that feels safe would be mid-to-late July to keep Myers under the two years, 86 days threshold. There’s never a firm date, since Super Two status is relative to other players within that class, so it’s a bit of guessing. July should be safe, though.

Fans are going to blame David Glass and hurl the typical vitriol at him as being cheap or doing things the Wal-Mart way, but it’s prudent for a team that simply won’t allow their payroll to balloon to the point where they have no flexibility. Would Wil Myers be enough to propel the Royals to the playoffs in 2012? It’s pretty likely that that wouldn’t be the case, so for the sake of perhaps five more wins this season, the Royals would sacrifice millions down the road – millions that could go towards signing a starting pitcher during free agency or which could be applied to a contract extension. That’s just not worth it in the big picture.

In that same game in which Myers hit the grand slam off Oswalt, Everett Teaford made two innings of a rehab start. That’s usually not big news, but on this night, the player who relieved him stood out.

Jake Odorizzi stepped in and threw 6.2 innings, allowing five hits and one run. He struck out ten.

Jake Odorizzi. Photo: Minda Haas

In 28.1 innings in Triple A, Odorizzi has great numbers. His ERA sits at a sparkling 2.22, his strikeout (8.6 K/9) and walkrate (2.9 BB/9) look good, and while he’s given up some base hits, they haven’t translated into runs. In 66.1 innings in the minors across Double and Triple A, Odorizzi has a 2.85 ERA and nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

He’s vaulted ahead of Mike Montgomery as the team’s top pitching prospect, and just 22, he’s close to being ready for his debut.

The same Super Two considerations apply to Odorizzi as to Myers and pitchers can get pricey in a hurry as well. Last year, he rolled through Wilmington and was promoted mid-season to Northwest Arkansas and struggled. There were concerns he’d run into similar issues this year with another mid-season promotion, but that hasn’t happened yet (and hopefully won’t), but another jump to the big leagues may be getting too quick with him. The Royals are a franchise that has said they’d rather be too late on a prospect than too early, so they’ll exercise caution with Odorizzi.

That’s not to say that Odorizzi won’t see Kansas City this year. If nothing else, he’s a great candidate for a September callup if he’s not up sooner. It’s also possible that Odorizzi could be the next pitcher to get called up. The Royals weren’t shy about bringing Danny Duffy to the majors last year when he looked ready.

Now, with all of that in consideration, my hunch is that the Royals feel alright about their odds in the Super Two gamble. I tweeted a few days ago that I think Myers makes it up after this round of interleague play. At a certain point, they just can’t fight it. Only Josh Hamilton has more home runs in professional baseball than Myers right now.

Odorizzi is a different story. I think Kansas City wants to see a couple more starts from him before moving him to the big leagues. Jonathan Sanchez is close to returning, which clogs up the rotation and Teaford will be back soon. Maybe Teaford is optioned back to Omaha right after being activated, but if Felipe Paulino ends up on the DL, the Royals may want both arms up. It’s just more complicated, and the Royals won’t help themselves by calling up Odorizzi for one start then shuttling him back down. When he’s up, he should be here to stay.

May 22, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) in the dugout against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

I remember thinking about how the Royals might go about winning games with such a terrible starting rotation before the season began. It’s hard to win when you can’t pitch, and it looked like for a majority of their innings they’d be getting bad pitching. I thought then that with such a good offensive lineup they would need to win a significant number of high scoring games—6-5, 8-6 and so on.

Right now, the Royals are 23-30, not good, but not out of the realm of where most people thought they should be—especially considering the 12-game losing streak. But when I reflect on how they’ve won those games, the high-scoring battles aren’t ringing any bells. Why? Because they haven’t won any.

That’s really not fair; they have won one. Yes, one. The Royals record when their opponent scores 5 runs or more is 1-20. That’s not very good for a team whose lineup was suppose to carry them.

Now, obviously, the offense hasn’t produced as expected. They’ve scored 214 runs all season, that’s 4.03 runs per game. Eric Hosmer has been a shell of himself, though he’s shown some signs of life lately. Alex Gordon struggled early and is starting to turn it around. Jeff Francoeur also struggled early. The Royals also had an abysmal time hitting with runners in scoring position (though their overall team batting average is good enough for ninth in MLB, another piece of evidence to support the notion that BA isn’t everything).

The offense has been weaker than expected, but that alone doesn’t tell the story either. In Saturday’s loss to Oakland, the Royals got down early thanks to another Luke Hochevar-like effort by Luke Hochevar. They were down 6-1 after the fourth inning. I’ve heard players on this team say they have the fire power to come back from deficits like this, which is good because they’re going to have plenty of them.

It all fell apart though after the Royals scored two runs to make it a game at 6-3. At that point, it looked like they might actually mount a comeback, but they couldn’t make those 1-run innings 3-run innings. Then, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow, and some really terrible defense gave us a glimpse of Royals teams past, and it was over 9-3.

As those of you who watch baseball know, the game is played in context. Different elements of each game impact other elements of that game. Think about the rally-killing sac-bunt Ned Yost called for in the fourth inning tonight. That had huge ramifications throughout the game. That took a potential 5 or 6-run inning and made it a 3-run inning. If Yost had been thinking about how his team would probably need many more runs to win that game, he probably wouldn’t have called for a sac-bunt.

So, the issue isn’t that the Royals aren’t scoring a lot of runs—they’re not—but that they aren’t scoring a lot of runs when they need to. This isn’t necessarily a solvable problem, but it’s not necessarily something to be written off as unsolvable either. People would be very wrong in tossing this issue aside by saying Well they can’t control when the runs come. They come when they come. Not true.

Managers have a pretty good idea of when they’re going to have to play for 7 or 8 runs (anytime Will Smith is pitching for example). Maybe that means fewer sacrifice bunts or playing more offensive players on a given day. Maybe it means running less to wait for extra base hits, knowing that a stolen run won’t do much for you. Maybe it means keeping spirits high when the team is down by the third inning.

For players, this issue seems more psychological. Last season, when the team was 8-20 through 53 games when opponents scored 5 or more runs, it felt like they were in every game—even when they were down 5 runs. The same sort of “overcoming all odds” mentality is lacking this season. Maybe it’s because some players have struggled at the plate, and they feel less confident about their ability to recapture a lead. I’m not sure. But it just doesn’t feel the same.

Obviously, a team is going to lose more games than not when it gives up at least 5 runs. But for this very unique team, they have to win more high scoring games than they are currently. They have to feel comfortable playing from behind. With a bad rotation, that’s going to happen a lot. Yost needs to make decisions with this in mind. His mentality with virtually every starter, except maybe Bruce Chen and Felipe Paulino, needs to be one that focuses on getting into the other teams bullpen early and playing for big innings. Otherwise, this team will not flirt with .500 this season like they should.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

The Royals Celebrate a Successful May. (John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April was an awful month for Royals fans everywhere.  “Our Time” quickly turned into “When does football season start?”.  However, the Kansas City Royals showed that they weren’t quite ready to pack it in for the season just yet.  Here’s a look at what happened in the Month of May…

I. Record/Standings    
a. May Overall Record: 15-13 (.536)
          Season Record: 21-28 (.429)
          AL Central: 4th (of 5)
          American League: 13th (of 14)
          Major League: 26th (of 30)
     b. May Home Record
          5-7 (.417)
          Season Home Record: 5-17 (.227)
     c. May Road Record
          10-6 (.625)
          Season Road Record: 16-11 (.593)
     d. May Streaks
          Winning: 4 (5/12-5/15: White Sox, Rangers)
          Losing: 3 (twice) (5/16-5/18: Orioles, D-Backs)(5/22-5/25: Yankees, Orioles)
          Current: Won 2
     e. May Opponents
          Tigers: 1-1
          Yankees: 3-4
          Red Sox: 2-1
          White Sox: 2-1
          Rangers: 2-0
          Orioles: 2-3
          D-Backs: 1-2
          Indians: 2-1

II. Ned Yost Quote of the Month
     5/20- after the Royals are shut out 2-0 by the D-Backs
“We’re still to a point where we’re firing on about six cylinders,” Yost said. “I think once we get going on all eight cylinders, we’re going to be a good team. … I think we still have a lot of ceiling left with our team, a lot of room to improve.”

III. High Point
     Finishing the sweep of Texas in Texas on 5/15
The Royals were 1-5 in Arlington in 2011.  They were 0-4 there in 2010.  Going into this series, the Rangers held the best record in the American League and were easy favorites over the lowly Royals.   This win marked the fourth in a row – their longest of the season – and their sixth win in seven games.  The Royals came out strong, batting around and scoring 4 runs in the top of the 1st and added two more over the next two innings.  Mike Moustakas hit his 5th Home Run of the season as the Royals pounded out 10 hits and capitalized on 2 Ranger errors.  Confidence was high and the team was starting to believe that  they would be able to recover from the slow start to the season.

IV. Low Point
     Losing on 5/25 to the Orioles
After the Texas series (above), the Royals had climbed to 15-20 – just 5 games under .500 and pulled within 4.5 games of first place in the AL Central.  However, after that game, the Royals came home to face Baltimore and dropped game 1 in a heartbreaking 15 inning 4-3 loss.  The team would go on to lose 7 of their next 9 games.  Sure, anything looks better after losing 12 in a row, but after this loss to the Orioles in which the Royals found themselves behind 8-0 before scraping across 2 runs in the 8th, things were looking bleak again.  The loss dropped the team 8.5 games out of first place – their largest deficit of the season.  Thankfully, the guys would get things straightened out and win 4 out of their next 5 to end the month.

V. Surprises and Disappointments
     1) Jeff Francouer’s resurgence. (Surprise)  As April ended, Frenchy was hitting  just .229 with 0 HR & 3 RBI.  He was better known for interacting with the crowd in between innings than for his ability to hit a baseball.  As Melky Cabrera was tearing things up in San Francisco, the fans in KC were starting to think that the team traded the wrong outfielder.  However, Francoeur went 3-4 on May 1 & proceeded to hit safely in 21 of 27 games during the month.  He ends May with an average of .280, 5 HR, and 9 RBI.  He helped carry the team while its brighter stars were still trying to find their swing.
     2) Road Warriors (Surprise).  At 16-11, the Royals have MLB’s 4th best road record.  They’re winning at a .593 clip away from Kauffman Stadium.  In May, they were even better than that.  Sure, it’s disappointing to see them play so well away from home, but wins are wins wherever they come from.  Like other teams in the AL Central, their home record stinks while there are picking up wins on the road.
     3) The Sanchez/Cabrera Trade (Disappointment) Early returns show that the Royals may have biffed this one hard.  At month’s end, Jonathan Sanchez is rehabbing in Omaha after being on the Disabled List since  early May.  For the season, he’s started 6 games.  The Royals have won just two of them, and Sanchez carries a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 6.75.  Cabrera meanwhile,  is the best hitter in baseball at .373 and set a club record with 51 hits during the month.  That’s more than all but 3 Royals have for the year.    
     4) Lorenzo Cain‘s Hip (Disappointment) In relation to #3, this guy was the hope for the future that forced the Royals’ hand.  He played in just 5 games and hit .133 before tearing a hip flexor in the rain in Oakland on April 24th.  More disappointing though, has been his slow rehab.  I’m not saying that Cain is doing anything wrong in his path to get back to KC, but it’s just disappointing to hear that he continues to have setbacks in his rehab.  We may not see him until July at this pace, and the Royals will have to continue to have to piece things together in the outfield until he returns.  Even then, he may not be at 100% for the entire year.

VI. Transactions
     1) 5/3: Placed 2B Yuniesky Betancourt on 15-day DL.  Called up 2B Irving Falu from AAA Omaha.
     2) 5/5: Activated RHP Felipe Paulino from the 15-day DL.  Optioned RHP Louis Coleman to AAA Omaha.
     3) 5/8: Recalled RHP Vin Mazzaro from AAA Omaha.  Optioned LHP Tommy Hottovy to AAA Omaha.
     4) 5/9: Placed LHP Jonathan Sanchez on 15-day DL.  Recalled 2B Johnny Giavotella from AAA Omaha.
     5) 5/12: Activated RHP Greg Holland from 15-day DL.  Optioned RHP Nathan Adcock to AAA Omaha.
     6) 5/14: Placed LHP Danny Duffy on 15-day DL.  Recalled RHP Nathan Adcock from AAA Omaha.
     7) 5/17: Recalled LHP Everett Teaford & RHP Louis Coleman from AAA Omaha.  Optioned RHP Nathan Adcock & RHP Vin Mazzaro to AAA Omaha.
     8 ) 5/19: Placed LHP Everett Teaford on 15-day DL.  Recalled RHP Nathan Adcock from AAA Omaha.
     9) 5/22: Placed 2B Chris Getz on 15-day DL.  Called up LHP Will Smith from AAA Omaha.
   10) 5/29: Recalled RHP Vin Mazzaro from AAA Omaha.  Optioned RHP Nathan Adcock to AAA Omaha.

Francoeur & Falu - The Glue Holding the Royals Offense Together. (Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

VII. Player of the Month
     Jeff Francoeur
For many of the reasons mentioned above, Francoeur has helped the Royals offense stay above water during the month of May.  Frenchy had 9 multi-hit games during the month, including a 4-4 performance in a 2-0 loss to the D-Backs on May 20th.  He put together an 8 game hitting streak from 5/20-5/28.  The Royals will need him to continue producing, especially while others are struggling.  If the Royals can get Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer rolling, and others, including Frenchy, can continue to produce, then the Royals offence will be potent once more .
Honorable Mention: Irving Falu.  Since being called up in early May, most Royals fans have been trying to figure out if he’s the real deal.  Falu just continues to impress.  He’s played in 12 games, and in 43 ABs, is batting .326, slugging .442, and has held his own in every regard.  Time will tell if he’s in the Royals plans for the future.

VIII. Pitcher of the Month
    Bruce Chen
After going 0-5 in his April starts, the mighty Bruce found his groove in May.  He lost his first decision in May to drop to 0-4 on the season and his name was thrown in the hat of guys you wouldn’t want to see in the rotation anymore.  Chen fought back with big wins against Boston, Texas, and Arizona to improve to 3-4.  Just like that, Chen was back.  He had a disappointing outing against Baltimore, but then came back and pitched well against Cleveland to end the month.  His season record now stands at 4-5, but in May he was 4-2.   During 4 of those starts, he threw into the 7th inning, which helped to rest an overworked bullpen.  Lots of guys on this staff have the ability to throw a great game, but then follow it up with a disappointing outing.  Chen is included in that bunch, but fared better than the rest of them in May.
Honorable Mention:  Jonathan Broxton.  He had a rough start this year and had just 3 saves in April.  As May progressed, he found his groove and had just one stumble – a blown save against Baltimore in a difficult loss.  Set that game aside, and he gave up 0 runs and just 8 hits the rest of the month.  He’s turning out to be a viable option at closer, which could turn into either an extension or trade bait as the season moves on.  We’ll just have to wait and see what the Royals Front Office has in mind for Broxton.

IX. Compare to May 2011
     The 2011 Royals were just 10-17, and saw their good start slide below .500.  The month of May started off well, with the team winning their first two games and improving to 16-13 on the young season.  However, the team got lost in a 5 game losing streak in the middle of the month that saw them fall to 20-22.  A loss on May 16th saw them lost to the Indians 19-1 at home.  Kyle Davies lasted just 1/3 of an inning that day.  After back to back wins, the Royals lost another 5 in a row.  The Month ended with another 3 game losing streak before beating the Angels on May 31.

Eric Hosmer made his much anticipated Big League Debut on May 6th in Oakland.  Everyone watched with baited breath as he walked in his first plate appearance.  He would hit .283 for the month with 5 HR & 17 RBI, looking strangely comfortable on the big stage.

May 2011 also brought two young pitchers to Kansas City for the first time.  Everett Teaford and Danny Duffy both took the big league mound for the first time during this month.  Duffy started 3 games in May, received no decisions, but had an inflated ERA of 4.11 as Royals fans saw him throw way too many pitches for his own good.

X. June Outlook
     The Royals open up June on Friday with a 6-game homestand.  Based on the results so far this season, this may not be such a good thing.  After facing the A’s & Twins, they take an off day, then travel to Pittsburg h where the pitchers will get to hit for the first time in 2012.  Interleague play will continue when the team returns to the K to take on Ned Yost’s old team, the Brewers.  After the quick 3-game series, the Royals will travel down I-70 to take on the St. Louis Cardinals.  From there, it’s on to Houston before coming back to KC to take on the Cardinals again to conclude Interleague Play.  The Rays will follow for three games, then it’s off to Minnesota, where the month will end with a Doubleheader (make up game from the 4/28 weather postponement).  All in all, they’ll play 15 games against the National League & 12 games against the American League.  The Royals had better be able to turn around their fortunes at the K if they want to see their record creep back towards .500 -  they play 3 more games at home than they do on the road in June. 
     There are also some good promotions in June at the K:
     6/1 vs. A’s-Girls Night Out (there you go guys.  2 birds/1 stone)
     6/2 vs. A’s-Vintage 1960 Cap/Salute to KC A’s (throwback uniforms?)
     6/12 vs. Brewers-Hometown Heroes T-Shirt Tuesday
     6/25 vs. Rays-”Water Appreciation Day” – free water bottle (water appreciation?)
     6/26 vs. Rays-Vintage T-Shirt (that looks somewhat similar to Rays color scheme?)

XI. Summary
     The Royals put up a winning record in May for the first time since they went 14-12 in 2000.  It’s a small step, but a good sign for this young team that is still taking its lumps.  That’s just what Royals fans have been clamoring for over the past several years – get the guys you want in Kansas City & let them figure it out.  That’s what they’re doing, so we need to give them some slack every now & then.  We all want them to go wild this year and win the division.  It’s not going to happen, but they’re going to get better.  They’re learning every day.  They’re being allowed to fail at the big league level.  Because of that, they will be better down the road.  I believe in the coaching staff, and in the moves they’re making.  The team seems to be on the right track – we’ll see if they can carry May’s momentum into June.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

Season Series – Cleveland 4-2, Indians swept series in KC April 13-15 with Royals taking 2-of-3 April 24-26

Can Billy Butler and Jeff Francoeur keep up their hot hitting in Cleveland to close the road trip? Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

Since the last time – These two foes met roughly a month ago with KC taking two-of-three after getting swept by the Tribe to open the 2012 home slate. Last time the teams met Cleveland was 9-8 and tied for the AL Central lead since they’ve gone 17-13 and leads the division by half a game over the White Sox and the Royals by six and a half games. Kansas City left the last meeting with a 5-14 record and have gone 14-13 since.

Heading into the Match-Up – Over the weekend the boys in blue took the series against the AL East leading Orioles while the Tribe were swept on the Southside being outscored 25-16 over the three-game series.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Monday, 3:05 pm – Nate Adcock (0-2, 2.33) v. Josh Tomlin (1-2, 4.67)
- Adcock In the 15-inning loss to the O’s Nate threw a then season high five innings and gave up an Adam Jones bomb to left in the only run allowed by him. His other loss came in the only start he made against the Diamondbacks going five, surrendering just one run.
- Tomlin has won his last two starts beating the White Sox twice in a five day stretch earlier this month. He’s pitched once against the Royals losing 4-2 on April 26 going 4 2/3 innings.

Tuesday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (0-1, 13.50) v. Justin Masterson (2-3, 4.62)
- Smith had a tough welcome to the show last week getting the ball at Yankee Stadium. In his first MLB start he went 3 1/3 allowing five runs on six hits.
- Masterson is 1-3 in his last four starts for the Indians going six innings in each appearance and into the seventh in his last two. In those starts he’s 1-1 with two no-decisions in the loss he allowed six runs in a 12-1 defeat at Boston.

Monday, 11:05 am – Bruce Chen (3-5, 4.81) v. Jeanmar Gomez (3-3, 3.94)
- Chen didn’t have his best stuff Friday night in Baltimore which was surprising given his previous starts. In the loss at Baltimore Bruce went just four innings allowing six runs on seven hits in his shortest outing since the loss at Minnesota.
- Gomez I’m sure Royals fans remember Mr. Gomez from the opening series at the K. In his last three starts Gomez is 1-1 with a ND winning against Miami but losing to Chicago on Friday night 9-3 allowing six runs.

In every game, the first baseman will make several putouts.  With the exception of the few times each game that the first baseman may catch a line drive, or beat the catcher back to the base on a grounder, most of these outs are preceded by another defensive player snagging the ball and throwing it to the first baseman.  If it wasn’t for Alcides Escobar, aka #ShortStopJesus, and Mike Moustakas, aka #Moose throwing leather all over the left side of the infield, Eric Hosmer wouldn’t be credited with nearly as many putouts.

Jeff Francoeur puts fear into the hearts of opposing baserunners (Image: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

For all their short comings, one thing the Royals have in good supply is strong defense.  The left side of the field is covered by Gold Glover Alex Gordon, future Gold Glove shortstop Escobar, and the most improved third baseman in baseball, Moustakas.  When Salvador Perez returns at catcher I believe he will significantly solidify our only current position of defensive weakness.  Eric Hosmer plays strong defense, and Chris Getz, Jarrod Dyson / Lorenzo Cain can hold their own with the best of them.  But there is one aspect of our defense that nearly outshines the others with consistently stunning and noteworthy performances – Jeff Francoeur and his lethal ability to gun down unsuspecting baserunners.

When I began writing this story, I started to research all the records for outfield assists so I could compare Francoeur to the great Carl Yastrzemski (he lead the league in outfield assists 7 times) and Roberto Clemente (led the league 5 times and many say he had the best arm ever), or talk about how some of the “so called” greatest players, such as Albert Belle and Barry Bonds were the easiest outfielders to run on, etc., etc.  And then, I decided against it.

If given the choice, would you rather read about the history of the Grand Canyon, or would you prefer to stand on the edge, peering down into the magnificent canyon below while the sun set in the surrounding desert?  Endure a tedious classical art lecture, or gaze opon the timeless face of the celebrated Mona Lisa?  I decided not to engage in a boring discussion of defensive assists and simply pause for a few moments while we take in the majesty of the greatest outfield arm of our generation.

One of my all-time favorite baseball highlights is the video of Francoeur’s perfect, perfect, perfect throw to nail the Tiger’s Jhonny Peralta at third base on August 7 last year.  Apparently, Peralta didn’t get the memo about Frenchy’s ability to throw runners out.  I challenge you to find a more beautiful, almost breathtaking defensive play – Francoeur running toward the line to pick up the ball, whirling and launching a rocket to 3^rd, capped by the ho-hum nonchalant tag made by Moustakas as if it happened every day.  And check out the Tigers 3^rd base coach’s reaction as he hangs his head during the slow motion replay, it’s classic.  Click here to see perfection.

Then, fast forward to this season, May 1, 2012 and apparently Peralta was suffering a memory lapse evidenced by his ill-advised attempt to test Francoeur’s arm again.  (Peralta would make a great subject for an SNL Weekend Update “Really?!?” skit.)  Click here to see the result, as if you don’t already know.  Don’t you just love watching Jhonny Peralta run the bases against the Royals?  On the downside, this highlight would be a lot more enjoyable if the Royals weren’t losing 9-0 in the 4^th inning.

Another of my all-time favorite defensive highlights is from September 7, 2011 when Michael Taylor of the Oakland A’s came to bat in only his 4^th game and lined what appeared to be a sharp single into right field.  Well, bad luck for Taylor, Jeff Francoeur was playing right field and as a baserunner you can never take anything for granted on a ball hit to Frenchy.  Even more amazing to me is the fact that Hosmer went to first base to cover the throw from Francoeur.  That is the definition of heads-up.  Click here to see the embarrassing moment.  Welcome to the big leagues rookie.

Last year, the ESPN blog ranked active outfielders’ throwing arms and came up with a virtual tie for the number one position between Francoeur and Shin-Soo Choo.  In 2012, Choo has one assist, Francoeur has 5.  End of discussion.

The difference between those who have the ability to throw out runners from the outfield and those who don’t is absolutely huge.  In 2012, Francoeur is tied for the AL lead with 5 assists and only 16 other guys have two or more.  Everyone else has one or none.  Francoeur’s ability to throw out runners is similar to Willie Wilson’s ability to steal bases, or George Brett’s ability to hit for average, or Humberto Quintero’s ability to swing at the first pitch and tap a dribbler back to the pitcher – it’s far above the abilities of almost any other player in the league.

One thing worth mentioning in this story is that with all his talent, Jeff Francoeur didn’t lead the Royals in outfield assists last year.   In 2011, that honor went to Alex Gordon.  Remember this when you hear someone talking about an unfair arms race, they may be talking about the Royals rather than the Russians.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

After a rough 2011, Wil Myers drew skepticism from some about his potential as a prospect. After a season of .254/.353/.393 hitting and just eight homers in a hitter-friendly league and home stadium, the shine was off the apple.

Wil Myers takes off. Photo: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

That Myers had fought off a fluke knee injury and resulting infection and he missed a fair amount of time. He also shifted from behind the plate to the outfield full time. As a 20-year-old at the Double A level, he already had some obstacles to get around. In that light, his season was a reasonable success, just not a wild one. He was still part of the All-Star Futures Game and still a Texas League All-Star in midseason, and a .353 on base percentage at any level is good to see.

Still, when the Arizona Fall League came around, Myers had some critics to quiet.

So he did.

Myers hit .360/.481/.674 in 23 games for the Surprise Sagueros and was one of the standouts in the league. He walked more than he struck out while 14 of his 31 base hits went for extra bases.

He earned an invite to spring training where he had five singles in 18 at bats with the big league team.

Now, he’s tearing up the Texas League and is getting the call to Triple A.

His .343 batting average leads the league. His 13 homers are good for second place. Myers and Nathan Freiman are tied with 98 total bases. With an OPS of 1.146, he’s the best hitter at the Double A level.

The adjustment to right field has been better than expected to the point that the Royals have had him play center field more frequently this month and he’s even started at third base a couple of times. The Royals trust his athleticism and moving him from behind the plate may have diminished his value as a prospect (since catchers who can hit are very rare) but should make him a more valuable player overall (since he shouldn’t need as many off days in the outfield and injury isn’t as big of a concern). Before the 2009 draft, Perfect Game USA noted in his scouting report that Myers had “highest level tools and size, and they play all over the field.” So far he’s living up to that billing. His arm is strong (he threw 90 mph in high school) and he has playable speed in center.

Some have suggested that Myers could be a September call up in 2012. That may be a bit quick, despite his skills. I think he could hold his own over the course of a month in the big leagues, but the Royals aren’t a club that jumps levels often with their prospects. They follow the mantra of “better late than early”.

Regardless, Myers is ready for Omaha.

If there’s a knock on him in 2012, it’s that he’s struck out more frequently than at any other level. Through 35 games, he’s struck out 28% of the time. His strikeout rate went up a bit last year in his poor 2011, but it didn’t reach these levels. He’s clearly making hard contact, but he could be that much more productive with less strikeouts. He’s still walking more than 10% of the time, so he’s still got his trademark patience at the plate (Myers walked nearly as often as he had struck out in both levels of A ball). He’s also benefited from Arvest Ballpark, with a .271/.338/.644 to .408/.482/.831 road/home split.

That’s a sharp difference, but even on the road, Myers has been strong.

He’s ready for this new challenge.

J.J. Cooper from Baseball America noted that Mike Moustakas had similar splits in his breakout 2010 season in Northwest Arkansas and it took 66 games for him to reach Omaha. Myers, as one of the best outfield prospects in the game (and maybe the best after Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have made it to the big leagues) didn’t have a lot more to prove at Double A.

Where to fit Myers (and who to displace) is another thing. The Royals currently have Jeff Francoeur signed through 2013. Alex Gordon has signed an extension. Lorenzo Cain was penciled in as the everyday center fielder this year and Jarrod Dyson has played well, so long term, Myers may not see Kansas City until mid-2013 while the outfield gets sorted out (unless he adjusts to center field enough to hold his own).

That’s getting ahead of things. First he has to continue to rake in Omaha. In Triple A right now, David Lough and Derrick Robinson are having good years. Jason Bourgeois is struggling so far since being optioned to Omaha, so Myers will likely take at bats from him and play in right field. The Royals may want to keep Bourgeois in the lineup more often to justify the trade that brought him to Kansas City but Myers should play every day.

Wil Myers has played in 35 games. He’s gone hitless in three of them (and still walked three times in one of those).

Omaha’s the next step in his path. He’s ready.

UPDATE
Myers singled in his first at bat, which Lee Warren of Yahoo Sports recorded and shared:

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