Kevin Appier‘s final line on that night: 9 innings, one hit, one run, one walk, 11 strikeouts. And because the Royals couldn’t score, he took the loss.

That may be the most painful example of a great start – an excellent start – wiped out by no run support. Might be. Except nearly a year before, on July 23, 1992, Appier threw 10 innings of shutout ball, allowed just three baserunners and got to watch as Cleveland won a 1-0 game in 14 innings.

Appier has two starts in his career where he achieved a game score higher than 90, but the Royals never scored a run and eventually lost. That’s brutal.

But what about a full season like that?

The Royals made headlines before the 1993 season when they signed Kansas City product David Cone to a three year deal to come home. It was Ewing Kauffman’s last big move before his death that August. With Appier already in the fold, it looked like a strong 1-2 punch. And it was. Appier won the ERA title (and should have won the Cy Young Award, in my entirely biased opinion) while Cone a 3.33 ERA. Both pitchers combined for 492.2 innings pitched.

Cone finished the year with 14 losses. He spent all year getting hardly any run support at all. The Royals scored five or more runs nine times when Cone was starting and never scored more than seven in a game. Cone enjoyed 3.6 runs scored 2.9 runs per 27 outs in Cone starts, and 2.6 runs per 27 outs when Cone was actually on the mound. Basically, if Cone slipped up and threw even a quality start (three earned runs in six or more innings), he could still run a good chance of being the losing pitcher. That’s a slim margin of error.

May 6, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the fourth inning of the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Enter James Shields. His two starts against the Chicago White Sox have him feeling sympathy with Appier and Cone. Shields threw six innings in his opening day start in Chicago, giving up one run, but the Royals mustered none of their own and Shields drew the loss. On Monday, Shields carried a no-hitter deep into the game, but even after losing his shot at history, he had still thrown eight innings of shut out ball. The result, as we know, could become infamous depending on how the rest of the season unfolds.

Shields didn’t come back out for the ninth inning after his dominant start. Ned Yost turned it over to Greg Holland, who fell behind, gave up hits, and, despite Chicago’s best efforts to bail him out, gave up the tying run. Kelvin Herrera gave up a homer in the tenth inning. The Royals lost. Howls of outrage. Gnashing of teeth.

In his seven starts, the Royals are 3-4. In those four losses, he’s given up a combined five runs. In one of those starts, at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, he still went the distance and really made just two mistakes. The Royals have scored a combined six runs in those losses and a combined 22 runs while he’s been on the mound.

Shields is doing his part. If the Royals are able to get a timely hit in the opener, maybe get a second run on Monday, he (and the Royals) could have two more wins.

But alas, sometimes that’s baseball. Shields is the ace of this staff, and he’s been running into his counterpart on nearly every team he’s faced.

*at the start of Tuesday, May 7

With the exception of Cobb (who’s pitched well), Shields has faced either the #1 or #2 starter on the opposing teams. And these aren’t #1′s in name only. These are perennial Cy Young candidates and/or winners. With the exception of the Royals explosion against Hamels, the Royals haven’t done much against the tough competition. But again, Shields has done his part, outdueling his counterpart (at least by the game score) in every game but opening day.

After a game like Monday, when Shields was probably (we don’t know but it’s a safe bet) going to close out the shutout, you could understand how he might be frustrated, even if he’d never say so publicly.

There’s only so much Shields can do. He’ll continue to pitch deep into games, get key outs, and perform like the best pitcher the Royals have seen since Zack Greinke in 2009. But it won’t mean much if the Royals can’t get him some support. For what it’s worth, in 1994, David Cone went 16-5 and the Royals gave him better than five runs a game of support. Cone won the Cy Young Award. If the Royals can score for Shields, he’ll be in that discussion this year.

It’s early, but some of those sentiments are changing.

May 1, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6), left fielder Alex Gordon (4) and right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) celebrate at the end of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With winning comes celebration and for everything the Royals have done well on the field, a few of the intangible elements have creeped into the story. It’s just the nature or sports that a team doesn’t win without some kind of intangible quality, and while I can accept that to an extent, I don’t think it’s enough to significantly sway performance (but it certainly can’t hurt).

This week, the Royals have started to get a little demonstrative. There was Jeff Francoeur‘s greeting of Eddie Rodriguez after a triple in Tuesday’s win. Then there started to be all of this reporting on the hand signals the players do when they reach base. Josh Vernier did some digging:

•  Francoeur and Alex Gordon will share a “you can’t see me” move (mimicking WWE star John Cena).
• Mike Moustakas and James Shields use a “C” to represent California.
• Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, and Moustakas make a “wolfpack” sign, as Vernier describes.

Then Billy Butler tried a few things out. He singled on Wednesday, then pointed to his bicep, grinning like a kid in a sandlot.

From Royals.tumblr.com

Later in the same game, he doubled and was motioning on second base as if he was playing air guitar. Apparently, though, as a nod to his Country Breakfast nickname, he was acting as if he was frying bacon, flipping it twice for each base on the hit. Joel Goldberg called it “Air Bacon” on FSKC.

So winning obviously is making the team feel good, and the morale is high. Winning will do that, but James Shields brought along a strong clubhouse presence to Kansas City along with a nasty changeup, and it’s paying dividends (so says the narrative). He’s started a tradition in the clubhouse involving a neon deer. The “King of the Game” gets to turn the light on after every win and everyone celebrates. I’m sure it keeps spirits up and, as Shields says, it allows the team to focus on the win and not someone’s 0-4 day, so there’s no harm in it. That’s not to say that if there was a neon light-up deer in the clubhouse last year that the Royals would have won. It still takes talent.

But they’re winning, so national writers are taking notice. Buster Olney of ESPN acknowledged that judging baseball results after just one month can be pointless, but mentioned that the Royals have played tough teams and won despite struggles from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

Jonah Keri discussed Ervin Santana‘s contributions so far in light of the initial reactions to the trade. The slider has been a big weapon early on, but Keri pointed out that Santana has to keep it up and that there are still question marks – but he didn’t go so far as to dismiss the idea of the Royals having something brewing, either.

SI.com’s Jay Jaffe looked at research into hot starts by other teams in baseball over the years and suggest that there’s reason for optimism for the Royals this year. It’s encouraging. Did you know that since 1995 (and the wild card), of the 54 teams to start exactly 15-10, 26 made the playoffs in some form? Jaffe has other nuggets like that in his column.

So it’s easy to see why the clubhouse in treating this season’s start like it’s the feel-good montage of a baseball movie where the underdog succeeds against all odds. They’re trying to be that team this year. Whether they get the happy ending or not remains to be seen, but more people are paying attention the more they win.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) is congratulated by center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) after Moustakas hit a two run home run in the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The month of May will be the ultimate test for the new and improved Kansas City Royals. Beginning with the current series versus the Tampa Rays (which started on April 30), the Royals schedule is stacked with what appears to be one challenge after the next with the exception of a brief respite (knock on wood) when the team visits the Houston Astros for a three game set.

After Tampa leaves town the Royals will face: the Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s, Houston Astros, the Angels (again), St. Louis Cardinals, and then wind up the month (and carry into June) against the Texas Rangers.

Yikes.

After game two versus Tampa (which is underway as I type this up), the Royals with either be 3 or 5 games above .500 for the season…the question on my mind is this: will they be above .500 on June 1?

The good news is that a couple of these teams are struggling. We already mentioned the lowly Astros. As of this writing, the Angels are just 10-17. The Royals play a combined 10 games against these two opponents, which should help. But…the Angels will have to get hot at some point, won’t they? And the White Sox (this weekend’s opponent) have a losing record – but they are always a thorn in this team’s side.

The Yankees seem beatable with a loaded disabled list. They still sit at 16-10, but the Yankee mystique seems to be lacking this year, and the Royals get them at Kansas City this time around.

The Orioles, Cardinals, and A’s seem like they could be trouble, though. And of course the Rangers are always tough to beat.

It won’t be easy (obviously). The Royals offense has been lacking. For all the talk of a need for pitching last winter, we all just assumed the offense (which was also bad) would get better. That Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer would figure it out and round out the lineup with some power. So far…not so much. Although Moose FINALLY had a big game, which included his first 2013 home run, in game 1 versus Tampa.

Apr 30, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

With the upcoming schedule, the Royals are going to have to show more balance than we’ve seen thus far. The starting pitching can’t be leaned on as a crutch every night. The offense has to get more consistent. We are seeing signs that it could happen, but it’s got to happen pretty much every time out there in May. The starting pitching (at least those front three) has to keep it up. We haven’t seen much of Mendoza (though he hasn’t been overly impressive) and Wade Davis is a mixed bag. The rotation is much improved, though, no doubt. With James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, the Royals should avoid any prolonged losing streak.

The fire this team has (which took center stage in Tuesday’s rally against the Rays) is the wild card in all of this, in my opinion. We don’t need every guy to go out and play or pitch a perfect game. We just need a team that refuses to quit. That’s what James Shields brings to the table. Well…that and phenomenal pitching. Shields has instilled a fiery, never say die attitude in this clubhouse. And it might be just enough to carry this team through when slumps strike or (god forbid) injuries hit.

So…where will this team be on June 1? It’s hard to say, but I know this much…it’s going to be a hell of a fun ride. And for the record (you didn’t think I’d cop out on a prediction, did you?), I think when May comes to an end the Kansas City Royals will have a 28-25 record and be very much in the thick of things. Who knows…maybe when they make a trade this year, the team will be helping itself for a change, rather than sending key pieces to playoff contenders. Wouldn’t that be a nice change of pace?

James Shields and the Royals open a three game series against his old team the Rays on Tuesday night. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Kings of Kauffman – At 12-13 what’s been the number one issue for the Rays? 

Rays Colored Glasses – If there’s one number that the Rays have to address, that’s their 3.79 team ERA, just 8th in the American League. The Rays’ pitching staff has been very streaky all year, tossing 5 shutouts but also allowing 6 or more runs six times. The keys to fixing that are going to be David Price and Roberto Hernandez.

Price finally got his first win yesterday, but his ERA still stands at 5.21 despite a 35-9 K-BB ratio as he has allowed a crazy 6 home runs in 38 IP (1.4 HR/9). Price has been good his last two times out, but the Rays need him to get back to being that ace pitcher he has been for them the past few years. If he can do that, pairing him with the untouchable Matt Moore will leave opposing teams shaking in their boots.

Hernandez, on the other hand, has just a 4.66 career ERA so his 5.28 mark this year isn’t so surprising, but he has looked electric, managing a 30-10 K-BB in 30.2 IP with a strikeout rate not too far off from double his career average as the Rays have altered his pitch usage to utilize his great changeup more often. But Hernandez has to become more consistent throughout his outings and find a way to get his results in line with his stuff. There’s reason for optimism, but that means nothing if Hernandez doesn’t start putting some solid starts together.

In the bullpen, the major concerns is Jake McGee, who is striking out batters like no tomorrow (14.0 K/9) but allowing far too many walks and home runs on his way to just a 6.48 ERA. That’s a sharp contrast from his 1.95 ERA from last season. McGee has been relying too heavily on his fastball in big spots and Rays have to get him right as well.

The offense is always a concern for the Rays as well, but they’ve gotten solid contribution all over the place and adding in Luke Scott will only make things better. If there’s one player the Rays have to get going, it’s Yunel Escobar, who has hit just .164 in 80 PA’s. He will return from a hamstring injury for Game 1 of the Rays-Royals series.

KOK – Tampa Bay is 8-4 at the Trop while just 4-9 away? Any reason for this oddity 25 games into the season?

RCG – Watching the team, I don’t think there has really been any difference and it really has just been a matter of the Rays just happening to be playing poorly on the road and well at home. That’s illustrated best by the fact that the Rays’ team OPS at home is better than away (.725 vs. .686) something shocking giving how tough a ballpark they play in, while their pitching staff has been just about as good, managing a 3.50 ERA and a 3.90 FIP at home and a 4.07 ERA and a 4.10 FIP on the road. The Rays have really just been basically the same team everywhere and one tough road trip in Texas, Boston, and Baltimore and a great home stand versus the Yankees and A’s are making the difference seem a lot more than it should be. It’s early in the season, and by the end of it all I’ll be shocked if the Rays’ home and away records aren’t remarkably similar.

KOK – Have fans been wondering when Wil Myers will be freed with how James Shields and Wade Davis have done so far?

RCG – Everyone is talking about Wil Myers, but I don’t think anyone cares about Shields and Davis anymore. Both of them, especially Shields, were great for the Rays, but they were also easily replaceable because the Rays just have so much pitching. It’s a real possibility that the Rays could lose Shields and Davis yet still have a significantly better starting rotation with Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Jeremy Hellickson looking vastly improved in the early goings.

Back to Myers, he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire at Triple-A, not hitting for much power, and most Rays fans have just accepted that he’s probably not coming up until June. The Rays’ offense has not been that bad, all things considered, and while Myers will be a big boost to the Rays when he comes up, if keeping him at Triple-A makes him a better player in the long-term, Rays fans are fine leaving him there as long as it takes.

KOK – Who are the pitchers that KC can expect to see this week at the K?

RCG – The Royals are lucky enough to miss both Matt Moore and David Price, but it will certainly not be smooth sailing for them as they take on Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, and Roberto Hernandez.

Cobb, 25, has been incredible to begin the year, going 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA, but I don’t believe he has looked as good as the numbers would indicate. He attacks hitters with a heavy sinker, but the issue with him has always been missing bats. He throws an excellent split-change, but the key for him is his curveball. Cobb has been throwing a lot to begin at-bats and a decent amount with two strikes, but I don’t think it’s that great of a pitch and I expect the league to adjust soon. Will that happen before or after the Rays leave Kansas City?

Hellickson is a pitcher who has elicited much debate between the traditionalists and the sabermetricians the past couple years, but this is the season where they all agree that he’s a very good pitcher. Hellickson’s ERA is just 4.31 in his first five starts, but he’s pitching like a completely different pitcher right now. In his last three starts, Hellickson, a pitcher who has struck out just 6.2 batters per 9 innings in  his career, has struck out 23 while walking just 6 in his last 3 starts spanning 20 IP. And that isn’t just an aberration–Hellickson has made a major breakthrough. Hellickson’s bread-and-butter has always been his fastball and changeup, but this season, he has added his curveball as a third plus pitch, and that gives him a real chance to become a true number two starter. Hellickson will obviously still have his struggles, especially when his fastball command is off, but he’s emerging as a really good pitcher and just maybe one of the best in baseball.

And then there’s the enigma, Hernandez. As we talked about above, Hernandez can befuddle hitters with his electric arsenal but has been missing way too often over the heart of the plate. Hernandez has two really good pitches in his sinker and changeup and another solid one in his slider, but often his sinker moves so much that he doesn’t know where it’s going, and when he misses he gets hit hard. If Hernandez can be a little more consistent, he has the ability to be a rock-solid innings-eating 4th or 5th starter. No matter how Hernandez does for the Royals, there will be a few swings from Kansas City hitters about as ugly as you’ll see. The question is whether those will be canceled out by his mistakes.

Pitching Match-ups and game times –

Tuesday: Alex Cobb (3-1, 1.82) v. James Shields (1-2, 3.09), 7:10 pm
Wednesday: Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 4.31) v. Luis Mendoza (0-1, 5.14), 7:10 pm
Thursday: Roberto Hernandez (1-4, 5.28) v. Ervin Santana (3-1, 2.00), 1:10 pm

One of the most important things the Big Game James brings to the table is the 7 innings per game that he is thrown.  Last year we got used to seeing Royal starter after Royal starter bounce in the 5^th and 6^th innings, or 3^rd inning for Jonathan Sanchez.  It is a lot more fun to look at the pitching match-ups each day and feel like the odds are in our favor.  Beyond lasting into games, there is a lot to like so far from Shields.  His 8.23K/9 and 2.31BB/9 are in line historically.  The strike out rate is down slightly from last year, but not in a way to be concerned about and last year was a career high.  These are typically the first thing I look at, and then I moved on to stats that might tell us about how lucky he has been so far.

April 20, 2013; Boston, MA USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) walks to the dugout after pitching in the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

LOB% looks normal, and BABIP was .284 and only slightly below expectation.  The only issue to count on going forward is that Shields will likely give up a few more home runs.  Right now he has a 6.1% HR/FB rate, which is unsustainable and should regress toward 11% over the course of the year.  This has led to a 0.51HR/9 which is about half of James’ historic rate.  So it looks like overall he has been just a bit lucky with batted balls in play and with fly balls staying in the park, but as you will see in a moment that even if those rates were normal, his expected performance would still have been very good.

So far Shields has an ERA of 3.09 and WHIP of 1.09, which is pretty great.  Even better though, the stats that try to correct for the luck issues look good too.  His FIP is 2.68, xFIP is 3.23, and SIERA is 3.40, so nothing about his performance to this point is pointing to major drop off.  What the stats are saying is that as the HR rates come back to normal we would expect his ERA to move up by only a tenth of a point or two.

Next I looked at his pitch mix to see if he is attacking hitters any differently than in past years.  It seems that he is using his cut fastball much more often than in he had any previous year, this being offset by fewer curves and change-ups.  The pitch values (runs above average by pitch type) say that his cutter has been his best pitch, so he or Salvador Perez calling the game seem to be managing the pitch selection well.

Finally, I went back to the PITCHf/x charts and ZONE% to see if the injury risks discussed  (see link to previous article above, link to Zimmerman’s article is in there if you don’t know what I am referring to) last year are still hanging around.

The velocity chart from Fangraphs shows no issues, and really wasn’t an issue last year, but is still nice to see.

James seems to be hitting the strike zone well.  Baseball Info Solutions has his ZONE% at 48.3% and PITCHf/x has it at 47.3%.  Both numbers are up significantly from last year.  The BIS number is in line with his 2010 and 2011 performances.  Prior to 2012 his PITCHf/x ZONE% were in the low 50s, so that is still slightly below historic rates, but not far enough off for me to be too concerned due to the increase from last year to this.

The horizontal release point was the last concern, and it still seems to move around horizontally more than I would like.  In the first four games especially this was true.  This chart is from yesterday though, and aside from a couple of pitches, the mass of points shows much more consistency.  I will continue to keep an eye on this, and hopefully the consistency will follow last game and continue to get better.

Overall James Shields has been a huge upgrade over any of the “Aces” the Royals have had leading their starting rotation for the last decade with the exception of Zack Greinke’s couple of good years.  This still hasn’t made me forget Wil Myers, but I have to admit that the success so far has dulled the pain a little.  Shields has been fun to watch, and has lived up to every expectation to this point.  So far, so good.

The main components to this are projecting the WAR values from each player for the contracts/player control time that was traded.  Then coming up with a discount rate, that would approximate the win inflation over the time period, to make sure wins this year are worth more than subsequent years.  The rest of it is just simple math.  As you can see I am not including Elliot Johnson, Mike Montgomery, or Patrick Leonardas I believe there value to the teams is either zero or close enough to zero that I can ignore

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

them.  I put James Shields down for two seasons similar to last year at 4 WAR each, and then zero from then on out since his contract will end.  Then I projected Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and played with what Wade Davis would have to do to make the trade somewhat even.  You can quibble a lot with these projections, but whatever they are, Davis is going to have to be pretty good to make this trade valuable for the Royals.  TWins are a sum of all WAR for the year for that side of the trade (Shields + Davis or Myers + Odorizzi), and DWins use the discount rate to present value the wins in terms of now.  As I go on I will be discussing how to make a model like this better since this one is pretty simple.

First, the projections need to be better.  I am pretty comfortable with Shields, but the others are much harder to project.  My preference would be to crowd source these win values to get expectations from multiple fan bases both biased and unbiased, but that would require me having a significant amount more power in the blogosphere.  In lieu of that I will probably need to go look at scouting expectations and then use aging curves for the three players who are younger and going to be around for a while.  Once you have those it is just a matter of setting a discount rate.  A win this year is more valuable than a win next year, and though you could argue for specific times and specific teams this could change a lot, I think this is still a good assumption.  How to set the actual discount rate could go several ways though.

You could try and set a league wide discount rate using win inflation, meaning look at what team payrolls are per WAR year over year recently, and then project an inflation rate from there.  This could be a good way to set the rate, but it is not what I was thinking.  You could also do this on a team by team basis since the Tampa Bay way won’t allow it to grow payroll at the same rate as the Dodgers or Yankees.  Personally, I would prefer to set inflation rates separately for the players.  The model above assumes one discount rate, consistent with a league-wide win inflation rate, but I think each player’s risk profile might give better results.  That way we could use what we know about the players to set the rate.  Prospects are riskier, so their discount rate should be higher than established big leaguers (we are more confident in what James Shields will be than the other three so his discount rate should be lower).  Also, pitchers should probably have a higher discount rate than position players due to higher injury risk and year to year variation.  Once you have done all this, a good estimate of each trading team’s expected present value of wins should be formulated, and then you move on to money.

One team or the other (or for multi-team trades you could compare more) is going to have an edge in WAR expectancy, but that is not the only factor.  Payroll should be used as well.  In the case of this trade the Royals have a lower win expectancy and took on more payroll with Shields’ contract, which is why most stat heads gave the clear victory to the Rays on the trade.  Anyway, that is an introduction to the method I would like to develop.  If you like it or have any questions or modifications I should consider let me know.

Velocity was not an issue yesterday.  All of James’ pitches were in similar speed ranges to the last couple of years, or a tiny bit higher according to Fangraph’s PITCHf/x data.  It is good to see his velocity already here this early in the season.  Movement on the pitches looked mostly similar as well.  The fastball especially looked like it was similar as far as vertical and horizontal movement.  Of his three main pitches, only the cutter looked like it was moving a little bit less and two things could be contributing to that.  His overall speed of his cutter was a couple of miles per hour above last year yesterday, and it was a cold game which can affect the pitcher’s grip.  All looks good so far.  Let’s continue on to the injury risk factors from Zimmerman’s article a couple of months ago.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Two concerns to look at here, release point movement and Zone%.  Per the aforementioned article, James’ Zone% from 2007 through 2011 was in the 51 to 52% range.  He was throwing the ball in the strike zone a little over half the time.  In 2012 that slipped to 45%, and an inability to throw strikes could indicate a problem.  Yesterday his PITCHf/x Zone% was 52, so back in line with the five years prior to last year.  That’s great, but over one game may not mean much.  The pitch release point had the same issues that were there last year.  His horizontal release point moved from -1.75 to 0, although most of the pitches are clustered around -1, if you look at a presumably healthy pitcher like Justin Verlander all of his pitches yesterday were between -2.5 and -1.5 a much tighter cluster.  The range of horizontal releases for Shields is almost twice that of Verlander.  Next time Shields is pitching I need to look at his location on the pitching rubber to see if this is still due to moving his starting foot position, which was the concern highlighted by Zimmerman.

Overall James Shields had a nice start to begin his career as a Royal, minus the run production that handed him a loss.  Most of the signs in the PITCHf/x data are what we want to see with good velocity, movement, and Zone%.  I will continue to monitor his release point to see what is driving it and if inconsistency continues.

Apr 1, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

A 2-2 changeup to catcher Tyler Flowers stayed up in the zone and he drilled it to left field for a homer and the game’s only run in the fifth inning. Other than the mistake, Shields was as advertised, scattering eight hits over six innings and striking out six. The White Sox only had a few hard hit balls – the Flowers homer, of course, and an Alex Rios single later in the inning – getting a few bloops to fall in after fighting off inside pitches.

He mixed his pitches well and had good movement on his two seam fastball all day. Shields could have been more efficienct, but gave the Royals what they were looking for from the leader of their pitching staff. He threw 102 pitches with 66 going for strikes.

His counterpart, Chris Sale, was excellent and kept the Royals from making solid contact most of the day while striking out seven and walking just one. The hardest hit ball came off the bat of Salvador Perez in the second inning on a first pitch fastball, driving it to the wall for a long single. Sale used his changeup and breaking pitches to dominate the Royals and in key moments.

The Royals had the bases loaded in the third inning after Jeff Francoeur singled, Alex Gordon walked and Alcides Escobar reached on an infield single. Sale started Butler off with a slider for a swing and miss, got a changeup over for a called strike, then after a slider missed, went with another and got the swinging strike out. Mike Moustakas popped out to the second baseman in shallow right field to end the threat.

Apr 1, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Another blown opportunity came in the seventh when Eric Hosmer led off with a single off Sale and Lorenzo Cain shot a line drive up the middle. Gordon Beckham made a great diving play on the ball, though, and what should have been a single was an out. Francoeur grounded into a double play three pitches later. In the following inning, Escobar got a hit into shallow left center with two outs and chased Sale out of the game. Nate Jones came in and gave up a walk to Butler, allowing Escobar to steal second and go to third on a wild pitch in the process. With Moustakas up, the White Sox went with lefty Matt Thornton and he overwhelmed Moose on three strikes, getting him swinging on a high fastball to end the inning.

The last chance Kansas City had came against Addison Reed. Hosmer walked after Perez grounded out leading off, then stole a base as Cain struck out, but was left standing on second as Francoeur offered at the first pitch slider from Reed and grounded out to shortstop.

Reed threw 15 pitches, six of which were sliders. Perez grounded out chasing one that was going to be low, Hosmer and Cain took two each as balls and the final slider was looking like a borderline strike. He probably could have waited on a better pitch since Reed had yet to locate a slider in the zone.

Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera both threw a scoreless inning each. Crow was erratic, but kept his pitches in control enough to retire all three batters. Herrera walked Rios on four pitches, but sandwiched a Paul Konerko flyout between Adam Dunn and Dayan Viciedo strikeouts to get through the inning.

Escobar and Francoeur had two hits each. Butler and Hosmer both had a single and a walk. The Royals stranded seven baserunners. they ran into a very good pitcher and the conditions were as different from the Cactus League as you could find, with a gametime temperature of 44 degrees with wind. Add in some shadows (though Sale would have been good, shadows or not) and it was a low-scoring environment.

After the annoying day off after opening day, the Royals will send Ervin Santana to the mound on Wednesday against Jake Peavy at 1:10 p.m. CST.

March 12, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals, of course, were below league average, which in 2012 was 2.45 SO-BB. They sat at 2.17 SO-BB with a starter ratio of 1.72. That’s bad like Andrew Ridgeley’s career after Wham!. The relievers were better, but not that much better at 2.36. We know the relievers strikeout a lot of hitters, but they also walk too many. Add to that the fact that they had plenty of long relief outings last year from pitchers like Nathan Adcock, Everett Teaford, and Vin Mazzaro, and the Royals bullpen struggled with walks. Hopefully, fewer innings will help with that.

It’s one of the most basic principles of baseball: don’t give away first base. And if you can, don’t even let the hitter put the ball in play because if they put it in play, there’s a much greater chance they’ll get on base. If they don’t put the ball in play (I’m counting a homerun as in play), and the pitcher doesn’t walk the hitter, there’s a near zero percent chance that hitter will reach base. Simple math.

The Royals know this. When they went out and overhauled their rotation, I imagine they believed the strikeouts would go up and the walks would go down. And they will. I tried to take a rough average of each member of the starting five’s SO-BB ratio throughout his career. I fudged a bit on Davis and Mendoza since elements of their careers complicate their numbers as starters. Instead, I took numbers from Davis’ 2011 (when he was last a starter), and I took Mendoza’s numbers from his three years with the Royals which equal about a season of starting. The results were that this rotation, if they perform only at their career averages, will have a SO-BB ratio of 2.25. That seems discouraging, and maybe it should be. But we must also remember that this is just a rough picture of what these pitchers might be in 2013. James Shields had a number of just average strikeout years before 2010 when he started piling up strikeouts, and that skews the data. Wade Davis had very high strikeout numbers from the bullpen last year, and we have yet to see if that will translate back into the starting rotation. It’s not as if there is no possibility that the Royals will make it into the 2.5 range.

If there’s hope that the Royals will rise above league average in the SO-BB category, it lies in a few things. Shields pitching as he has the last couple of seasons. That seems pretty reasonable. Davis showing the strikeout potential he showed in the bullpen as a starter this year. This seems doable. And Jeremy Guthrie continuing to pound the strike zone like he did with the Royals last year. We watched as Guthrie put on a show in his final 14 starts of last season, but he wasn’t striking a ton of people out. He fanned only slightly more than his usual amount while in Kansas City (5.5 K/9). The difference was he dropped his walk numbers down to 1.9 BB/9. That’s very good, closer to the numbers he put up in Baltimore in 2010 when he had a 3.83 ERA in 32 starts and a SO-BB ratio of 2.38.

It’s a stat to keep your eye on for this season. Obviously, it’s not the only way to gauge a pitching staff’s success, but it will be tough for the Royals to contend if they don’t get that number to around 2.4. Are they capable? Absolutely. But like so many things for this season, it will require progress on the part of a few key players.

February 21, 2013; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays outfleder WIl Myers (60) poses for a picture during photo day at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Remember Wil Myers? Of course you do. For some of you, it’s still an open wound. You’re still heartbroken. He’s like that old girlfriend/boyfriend you always wonder about (is he the one that got away?). And with all the spring training battles coming to an end, it’s easy to let your mind wander and wonder again.

KC fans loved him. Some still aren’t sold on “the trade.” And…I guess with good reason, to a degree. He was the best Royals prospect. He’s still highly rated by Baseball America and just about every other prospect ranking website/magazine guru out there. If you Google Wil Myers, you’ll see links that contain phrases like “No. 1 fantasy prospect” or “Wil Myers tops fantasy baseball 2013 rookies.” You’ll see (off to the right of your screen) a heading that says “People also search for,” which is followed by the names Jake Odorizzi, James Shields, Wade Davis, and Mike Montgomery.

So yes…Myers is still a name that KC fans think about and the Royals are still somewhat connected to their former future star. But should we care? Isn’t it time to move on? This isn’t a movie…we aren’t Martin Blank, going back to our ten-year high school reunion to rekindle something with Debi Newberry (Grosse Point Blank reference if you are too lame to get it). Wil Myers is gone for good. There is no future. No reunion. No rekindling.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Lucky for Royals fans, though, we did get something nice in return to help us move on. Shields is the ace of a revamped pitching rotation, while Davis gets his shot at starting again now that he’s out of Tampa. Both are key figures in the Royals attempt to compete in 2013. Both are important to KC’s hopeful return to relevance.

We can argue and ask “what if” all day long. What if Myers was in right field instead of Jeff Francoeur? What if Myers becomes a perennial All-Star? What would our lineup be like with Myers hitting .290 with 30 home runs? Well…what if? What if he did in fact do all that for the Royals, but the rotation still featured underwhelming pitchers like Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and (insert name of just about any pitcher from the last decade not named Zack Greinke here). What if we had kept Myers and kept this franchise on the same course? That’s the scenario that bothers me. Not “What if Myers is a stud?” but “What if this team never went for it?”

It’s time to move on. Let’s not worry about Wil anymore. That ship has sailed. Let’s concentrate on the guys we still have, and the guys we’ve brought on board this offseason. There is a lot to like about the current roster. If you believe in WAR (and I do), Fangraphs had Alex Gordon as the sixth most valuable position player in the American League last season. Billy Butler was an All-Star (a REAL All-Star) and won the Silver Slugger. Of course there is a lot to like about guys like Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain. And I’ve already mentioned the revamped pitching rotation.

And the river of prospects hasn’t exactly dried up. We’ve still got Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura, Bubba Starling, Adalberto Mondesi, and so on. I’ve wondered for a while now, “why can’t we win now AND build for the future simultaneously?” Well, it appears that’s exactly what’s happening in Kansas City.

So get over it. Breaking up is hard to do? Nah. It’s not like we just traded Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez. If you love something set it free, right? Well, let’s “Free Willy” and be happy to have guys like James Shields suiting up in Royal Blue this year. This trade is already a “win” in my opinion. What Myers does in the future won’t sway my thinking…it won’t become a bigger win, nor will it turn into a loss. It was a perfectly fine trade that helped both teams. I don’t care if Myers fails or succeeds. If he does hit .290 with 30 homers, more power to him. If he doesn’t become an All-Star, well…that’s fine, too. It doesn’t matter to me anymore. You have to give something to get something, right? That’s what this trade was – two teams giving value for value. Now let’s focus on the Royals and let the Rays fans worry about Wil.

Opening Day is just around the corner, and there is some real enthusiasm surrounding this team. Maybe when September rolls around and the scoreboard commands us to “Make Some Noise” there will be some actual excitement behind the screams. Maybe there will actually be something on the line for the first time in a very long time. If this team gets on the right track in 2013, Myers will be a footnote in Royals history. The next generation of fans will ask, “Wil who?”

The hardest decisions have been made, as I think most would be okay with either Brett Hayes or George Kottaras backing up Salvador Perez, and there are four capable arms vying for the last bullpen spot and the fifth, J.C. Gutierrez, looked pretty good in Monday night’s win over the Dodgers.

So what else is new in the world of the Cactus League Champion Kansas City Royals? (They clinched the title on Tuesday)

- Sports Illustrated released six covers for their Major League Baseball preview and James Shields is featured on the cover that will hit the midwest.

Your 5th of 6 @mlb Preview Covers… Big games await James Shields and the revamped @royals: bit.ly/11Htnu9 twitter.com/SInow/status/3…

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 26, 2013

- Opening Day is in less than a week, and the Royals home opener is in less than two, but the Royals groundscrew wasn’t taking any chances. The weather has been crazy over the last month, with 70 degree days followed by a week of snow. So with Kauffman Stadium covered in snow, they decided to take to the field with shovels. I don’t think the faux fire on the screen really helps them feel any warmer, though…

#Royals grounds crew gets a little help from the video board guys as they work hard to prep for April 8. #toasty twitter.com/Royals/status/…

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) March 26, 2013

- A study called the Brand Keys Sports Fan Loyalty Index dropped the Royals from 28th in fan loyalty last year to 29th this year. The study looks at various factors, including the excitement on the field, how well a team plays, how fans connect with the team and players and the tradition of the team.

Also, of course, they factor in attendance, merchandising, broadcast reach and the business side of things as well as the emotional. The Royals are behind it as a smaller market. The top five teams over each of the past six years list teams you’d expect – the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies – year after year, with brief mentions of teams regarded as being in smaller markets like Cleveland and Oakland. To me, it seems like the rankings tie closely to market size and record.

I can’t deny my own bias, though. I’ve been a Royals fan since I even knew what baseball was. I grew up in Western Kansas before the Colorado Rockies existed. The Royals were the only game in town. I didn’t even get WGN back home, so the Cubs and White Sox were out of the running. I’m not sure how much of the study accounts for scenarios like mine, where I’ve been exactly the kind of loyal fan they’re hoping to identify. Seriously, anyone who can still follow this team rabidly (and if you’re reading this blog, that includes you I’d guess) after such a long record of poor play has to be considered loyal.

I couldn’t assume that the Royals would be high up on the list though, but of the fans that do stick around, they’re definitely loyal. Perhaps it’s just semantics and “fanhood” or “following” term than loyalty.

- The Royals cut four minor leaguers, according to Bob Dutton. The four – all pitchers – are Michael Giovenco, Jose Jimenez, Leondy Perez and Elisaul Pimentel. The most recognizable of those is Pimentel, who was part of the 2010 Scott Podsednik trade, coming over from the Dodgers with Luke May. Pimentel was last seen in Wilmington after struggling in Double A.

- Finally, a sad news item. Carlos Fortuna was a prospect in the Royals system out of the Dominican Republic. He last pitched in 2009, but put pitching on hold to battle liver and lung cancer. He passed away on Sunday, a week before his 23rd birthday.

I can’t put any better words on the situation than what Dick Kaegel has already collected from former teammates of Fortuna’s – take a moment to read their stories here.

Last season, there was a clear difference between Jeremy Guthrie, “Coors Field pitcher” and Jeremy Guthrie, “any other stadium pitcher”. This year, the question moves to James Shields. The key acquisition of the Royals offseason could see a big difference in his numbers after a career in Tampa Bay.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The key factor that may spell doom in 2013 is Kansas City’s defensive abilities. It’s not the first time and perhaps not the last that the Royals are compared to the Tampa Bay Rays in regards to their respective defensive efficiency. Statistically, the Rays were the second best team in the majors. The Royals were third worst. The thinking is, then, that Shields will be going to a new team that isn’t as solid defensively as the Rays, more balls will go for hits, meaning more baserunners, and more opportunity to give up runs.

It’s something to keep in mind.

Perhaps a full season of Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain plus no involvement at all of Yuniesky Betancourt can improve Kansas City’s numbers. Perhaps Shields himself can help how they look, statistically. Last year, he had a 52.3% ground ball rate – a career high. Are those two factors enough to get the Royals into the middle of the pack defensively? Possibly, but it can’t be assumed.

It’s not all doom, though. Shields is also moving from the AL East to the AL Central, meaning he’ll face the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox far fewer times than he otherwise would have. Last season, 14 of his 33 starts came against AL East teams, with six coming against the Yankees. In his career, 94 of his 217 starts have been against AL East teams. He’s made 40 starts against non-Royals AL Central teams. The assumption is that in facing Boston and New York often, he’s suffered from facing high-salary, All-Star-laden lineups.

It’s true that Boston and New York have done damage against him. In his career, he’s got a 4.56 ERA against each AL East powerhouse. His overall career numbers against the division improve when also considering the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. Overall, his career ERA against the AL East is 3.98 in 621.1 innings.

Against the AL Central in his career, Shields has a 4.16 ERA in 262 career innings (again, omitting any games against the Royals). AL Central teams have gotten more hits against Shields and the Rays and have reached base more often (.296 OBP allowed against the AL East versus a .316 OBP against AL Central teams).

So perhaps that switch from AL East to AL Central won’t help him that much.

His career numbers, though, also include his early years and his rough 2010 season. More recently (that is in 2011 and 2012) Shields has been among the better pitchers in the American League, keeping his walkrate low but striking out a higher percentage of batters.

Just looking at 2012, then, Shields performed better against the AL Central than the AL East. In 94.1 innings against AL East teams, he had an ERA of 4.21 whereas against Central teams it was 3.60 (in 50 innings). More batters reached when Shields faced the Central, but the East teams hit more homers (13 in 94.1 innings compared to just two in 50 innings).

We can’t really expect Shields to surrender only two homers in 50 innings, but it’s probably safe to say that Shields won’t give up as many homers facing more Central teams than East teams in 2013.

The information suggests that Central teams make more contact and get more singles, but AL East teams walk more and hit more homers (and also strike out more). None of it is definitive.

We should also consider that Shields will pitch more games in Kauffman Stadium. In his career, he’s given up one homer in 24 innings at the K. Some of that is due to the stadium depressing home run numbers. Part of that is also due to the Royals having pretty thin home run numbers through Shields’s career. In Tampa, he gave up less than a homer per nine innings (0.90 HR/9), less than his career average of 1.1 HR/9. Tropicana Field is more of a pitchers’ park; Kauffman Stadium is fairly average (but is a lower home run environment).

So let’s make a call here. It feels right to suggest that Shields facing the Central more often will help him simply because the threat of the home run is lessened, and he still has strikeout and ground out abilities to get out of innings when he does put runners on. Is the change going to be significant? I doubt it, but I do think he’ll perform slightly better if the Royals defense can show improvement. If the defense doesn’t, it may be a wash.

(Info came from Baseball-Reference and team-by-team numbers can be found here.)

March 12, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

There’s not really concern with Shields – it’s just spring training, after all – and as expected, he was named the Royals opening day starter officially by Ned Yost. It will be his fifth career opening day start after four with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’ll face Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox on April 1. The Royals also lined up their next three starters, following Shields with Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie and Wade Davis, according to a Bob Dutton report. The fifth spot has not been announced yet. Santana is set to pitch the Royals home opener on April 8.

-Hosmer’s homer is a good sign, as signs of panic have been going through the Royals fan club. After a rough World Baseball Classic, the specter of his 2012 struggles continues to hang over him. Connor Moylan at Royals Review had an excellent post about that anxiety that weighs his importance to the Royals, his past hype and the general angst Royals fans end up feeling when things go sour – that “here we go again” feeling. For what it’s worth, the Royals hitting coaches, Jack Maloof and Andre David, have worked with minor leaguers coming through in the past, so there’s familiarity that may help the younger hitters, Dutton reminds.

-Unfortunately for Endy Chavez, he won’t be one of the players working with them this year, as the Royals announced that he’s been released. He had signed with the Royals on New Year’s Eve on a minor league deal but in 32 at bats only had six hits. There are 38 players left in big league camp.

-Major League Baseball granted left-handed pitcher Noel Arguelles a fourth option year. Typically, players can be optioned to the minor leagues three times only, but if they have less than five years of professional experience, a fourth year can be granted. The same kind of thing happened to Luke Hochevar. The deal Arguelles signed in 2010 placed him on the 40 man roster, but he missed the whole year dealing with a shoulder injury. Baseball America has the full list of players granted a fourth year and explains the process in greater detail. Arguelles was optioned to Double A Northwest Arkansas two weeks ago.

-Just a reminder that Fox Sports Kansas City will air two spring games next week – Monday the 25th against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Wednesday the 27th against the Chicago Cubs.

-It’s not Royals related, but it still relates to Kansas City Baseball: the Jackie Robinson biopic “42″ will release on April 12 in theaters, but on April 11, the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum and AMC Theaters are coordinating on a premier event on April 11. Harrison Ford, who plays Branch Rickey in the film, is supposed to be there. You may have heard of him. It’s a chance to take part in what I think is going to be a cool evening of baseball history. More information is at 42KansasCity.com.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Will Smith (53) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, the Royals beat up on the Arizona Diamondbacks and decided, “This streak goes to 11.”  Alex Gordon, James Shields, and Will Smith all shined, with Shields and Smith combining for 5 scoreless innings. Gordon gunned a runner down at third base (what else is new?) and went 3-for-4 with a grand slam. Not too shabby!

It was nice to see Shields go multiple innings after throwing only one in his debut. He breezed through mostly trouble free. In the first inning, Diamondbacks rookie speedster Adam Eaton caused a little trouble, laying down a bunt that was fielded by Shields, who then made a throwing error to first base. Eaton, though, was eventually thrown out on the bases. Shields went on to toss three innings, gave up three hits, zero walks, and struck out two.

Shields gave way in the fourth to the very hot Will Smith. The lefty continued pitching well, going two innings of no hit baseball. He walked a batter and struck out two. He finished the day with an ERA of just 1.29 thus far in Arizona.

While, again, its only spring training, Smith’s performance gives reason for optimism. Baseball Reference is tracking spring stats this year, and thanks to their handy “quality of opposition” tool, each player’s performance can be put into context based on the type of players they face. The scale goes from 1-10, with anything more than 9 considered big league talent. Before today’s game, Smith boasted a 9.6 on the scale, meaning he’s had some great success against some pretty solid hitters. I don’t think he’s got a chance, but if he keeps this up, maybe he should be in the mix for that fifth rotation spot.

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Today was fun. Two of the players KC will count on most this year, Gordon and Shields, had great games, and I’m feeling good after this win. I will admit I’m an eternal optimist when it comes to the Royals, but I have to say this year’s optimism comes with a feeling of legitimacy. Every year, I come into spring training optimistic. Not necessarily thinking the team will be good (although I always try figuring out what has to go right for them to win the division, which usually ends with my head exploding), but that I’ll witness a break through season from the young players. An optimism that says, “We probably won’t win THIS year…but if a couple of these guys succeed and we have another good draft…”

This year though? It kind of feels like we’re on to something here. The success in Arizona feels real, like it will carry over. These guys are loose. They’re having fun. The pitching looks good. The defense looks good. The bats look good. What’s not to like? I know some of us think the Royals are waiting for the regular season to unload the type of losing streak that won’t just ruin your week…but suck the life out of an entire season. I say we just enjoy this ride and stick with the optimism. At least for now.

Hit us up at KoKMailbag@gmail.com. On to the bag:

Should Kelvin Herrera move to starter? Why won’t Crow? – Jeremy in Blue Springs

I love the idea of Herrera as a starter and I’m not sold on the reasons being given that he wouldn’t be able to do it. Just because a reliever transitions to starter doesn’t automatically mean that they need to start pacing themselves in an effort to get deeper into games. Of all the pitchers I’ve coached, trained, and all the innings I’ve thrown myself, to have the thought that pitch No.2 needed to be thrown with any less conscious effort than pitch No.88 is befuddling to me. And if I have a pitcher that’s worried about pitch No.88 in the first inning, then I don’t want him pitching for me.

And if there’s a worry that he’ll run out of gas, train better. The biggest misconception about pitchers is that they need some kind of outwardly endurance that can only be acquired by running lots and lots of miles; that pitching is a marathon. It’s not. It’s just not.

Pitching is just a bunch of sprints run one after another with somewhere between a 5 and 10 minute break every 18 or so. If you’re telling me that Herrera’s 100 mph, or any other pitcher’s fastball, can’t last for 6 to 7 sequences of 18 pitches over the course of 2 ½ hours, then I’ll show you an pitcher and an organization that doesn’t know how to condition.

What’s your deal with Gordon? – Steve in Wichita

I’m assuming this one is for me personally since I’m the resident Gordon fanboy around these parts.

I’m a sucker for elite athletes, and as much as I use statistics to frame my arguments, at my core I’m still a baseball fan with a player/coach/recruiter/scouts eye. And because of that the first thing I look for before anything else is the natural body control and movement skills that are unmistakable in terrific athletes. Gordon is one of those guys. There is no weakness to what his athleticism can do – except elite speed – and those are the guys that turn into All-Stars and top tier players. Those are the ones you bet on to fulfill their potential.

How would you have advised Dayton Moore this offseason? – Jordan in Ames

Use the only resource you are truly in abundance of: money. Not talent.

Wil Myers may or may not have been better than Jeff Francoeur this season, but given what we know of Francoeur and his career, the odds are not in his favor. And the idea that prospects are just prospects and they bust is the most self-fulfilling form of dis-logic imaginable. Under that same line of thinking Billy Butler would have never been good, Alex Gordon would have never been good, and any star on any team would have been, and will never be good. It’s the easy way to defend the players that are currently on the team without ever establishing who will be next…

I’m off the rails now…this offseason…

Attack with offense. This is still a lineup that is vastly unproven in the spots that need to improve, and incredibly proven in other spots that will most certainly see 600 plate appearances. The central focus on pitching and pitching only never made much sense to me. There are still at least three glaring holes in the every day lineup with at least two more that could easily be. That’s not a recipe for success.

Wil Myers may have been what the Royals needed to get a return like James Shields, but in the immortal words of Dr. Malcom in Jurassic Park: “you were so preoccupied with whether or not you could that you didn’t stop to think if you should.”

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher James Shields (33) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

However, what if someone told you that the trade almost turned into a missed opportunity? According to Ken Rosenthalof Fox Sports, the Royals were almost too late with their decision.The Rays were in talks with multiple teams about James Shields. The Royals figured the Detroit Tigers were in on the discussions, but instead, it turned out that the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks were at the negotiating table with Tampa Bay. Moore and the Royals had a choice, and it wouldn’t be a cheap one from a talent perspective.

Working late into the night and early morning, Moore and his assistants crammed into a small conference room at their hotel. Moore went to a white board, listed and ranked the organizations top prospects and finally, laid out the price named by the Rays. Four quick swipes from the eraser in Moore’s hand, and the names of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were all removed from the group. Moore looked to his assistants and explained that while the price was high, the return was valuable and essential. The deal was struck and the Royals had beaten the Diamondbacks and Rangers to the punch. The next day Arizona signed Brandon McCarthy to two years and the Rangers moved on in search of help elsewhere. The Royals had landed two extremely important pieces to their future, Shields and Wade Davis, a strong reliever with starting experience.

If that deal wouldn’t have happened, the Royals spring training would have a much different look, feel and buzz surrounding it. Instead of the buzz of Shields and Davis working alongside of Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie, we’d be seeing of Odorizzi was ready to make the jump into the rotation. There would also be the discussion of where Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza fit in the rotation. Out in right field, it’d be Wil Myers alongside of Jeff Francoeur shagging fly balls and preparing to make the full-time jump to the big leagues.

Who knows if the Royals would have shopped around for a suitor to take Myers in exchange for a top-of-the-rotation guy ready to turn the Royals’ woes around. Hell, maybe Moore could have found another team willing to take Myers, while leaving Odorizzi intact with the organization. But, with all that aside, Moore stepped up to the table, grabbed the dice and laid down the big money. With as many years that have passed in Kansas City where fans complain about the passiveness GMs have assumed in the area, Moore silenced those critics while feeding ammunition to his personal critics, for now. The man took a risk, but when the Royals are nipping at the heels of the Tigers, the gallery of critics will sound more like the front pew in church.

Our first visit to the latter camp comes via James Shields with his quote in this article on ESPN.com earlier this week.

“I feel like I have an old-school soul,’’ Shields said. “I pride myself on going deep in games. I don’t care if I give up four runs or no runs. I like saving the bullpen. I think it’s very important.”

Let’s ignore for a second that everyone should care whether James Shields gives up four runs or no runs, and James Shields giving up no runs is far more important than James Shields going nine innings, and focus on the first nine words of what’s sure to be the swoon-inducing phrase of the season.

“I feel like I have an old-school soul.”

For all the good that Shields brings to the Royals, and there’s plenty of that as Matt Klaassen writes, one thing that will not be fun to listen to all summer is the overreaching narrative that he’s a “bulldog” or a “gamer” or in this case, an “old-school soul”.

This is a thing with the Royals — especially the Royals under Dayton Moore — the pumping up of semi-meaningless or superfluous traits as somehow meaning more-than. There’s been no shortage of detractors of the regime that has yet to win even 76 games since it took over, and one of the major reasons for that is their crippling focus on the things that cannot be defined, cannot be measured, and cannot be used to predict future performance. The last of those things being the most important.

Because in James Shields the Royals now have something they haven’t had in nearly two full seasons, and have really only had one of in the last decade: a legitimate No.1 starter.

While I could argue that there really are only ten No.1 starters throughout baseball (there are, though I’d let you talk me into there being 12), at the very least there is a clear-cut difference between Shields and the rest of the staff. That’s a nice change.

He’s finished with below a 3.30 xFIP the last two seasons, and he’s only finished higher than a 3.90 xFIP once, his rookie season. The guy can pitch and pitch well, there’s no need to pump him up with these undefinable buzzwords.

But that’s what’s going to happen and the people will love him for it. Sure, the quote was his words and not the organization’s, but given what fans have endured during the past seven years, given the hyperbole surrounding Yuniesky Betancourt’s “defense”, Chris Getz being “mistake free”, and Jeff Francoeur’s “leadership”, James Shields’ “old-school soul” will be another marker down the road of irrelevant storylines the Royals will have this season.

Besides, when I think old-school soul, I don’t think James Shields, I think Al Green.

All eyes of Royals fans will be on James Shields one inning of work Thursday against the Padres. Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

What can be expected for one inning? How many strikes are thrown? Batters faced? How quick the outing is? I think they all can be focused on Thursday but I think a scoreless inning with a strikeout will be fine for most.

We obviously won’t know more about Shields until later in the spring when he gets more work in, however pitching in Arizona will be different than his previous camps in Florida. The scenery is different but the game is the same. Shields is a veteran and he’s going to go at a pace he’s comfortable with.

The interesting thing about the Shields start is that he asked for one inning and manager Ned Yost allowed it. Based on reading articles from Jerry Cransick of ESPN.com article it doesn’t seem like the clubhouse will have a problem with this request.

Again if he struggles in Thursday’s start you won’t see the billboards around town get taken down. Most fans won’t pan it if he struggles in a spring training start. “It’s still inevitable that Shields’s first Royals inning will be talked about and analyzed as people are always more anxious to pick apart spring performances.

Other newcomers to Surprise are Jeremy Guthrie who came to KC last July and Ervin Santana who are in their first camps with the Royals. Both have experience with pitching in Arizona during the spring but how they do with the Royals coaches watching their preparation will be interesting.

Wade Davis made his first start against the Cleveland Indians in Goodyear and even with it being two innings it went well. The goal will be be to stretch him out and he’ll get longer outings as spring continues but in some ways Davis going two innings allowing just one will allow peace of mind.

Silencing the Indians in February isn’t the same as doing so in April, May and so forth or just seeing a handful of hitters. Interested observers will need to see more in the coming starts.

When Shields takes the mound on Thursday, Royals fans will stop and pay attention. And considering what the Royals gave up, many might go check out the Rays and see what Wil Myers is up to. As of Wednesday Myers has three hits in seven at-bats for a .429 average.

While some vets choose to find a place to get a quick workout in off the tee or take some extra groundballs on a vacant  infield before hitting the showers, many rush to the clubhouse to exchange their baseball spikes for a pair of golf spikes. I’m sure it’s not unordinary either for a manager to relieve himself early from a split-squad game only to make the short drive to the local course for his 3:30 p.m. tee-time.

Seeing as golf and baseball go hand-in-hand when it comes to spring training, and even during the regular season on off-days for pitchers with ailing backs (insert Josh Beckett joke here), it’s only appropriate to play-through a few holes of golf with a bag filled with clubs made up Royals’ pitchers vying for spot in the rotation or bullpen for 2013.

August 22, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Driver: RHP James Shields

This selection is one of the obvious choices when one takes into mind the role of a driver. Usually the first club out of the bag, the long-bomber has two jobs: be juiced with power and take that golf ball for a long, long ride. Shields has filled both of those roles time and time again with his former team. The young ace has record six straight seasons of 200 innings or more and becoming known for registering the heat for all nine innings, while limiting his walks to 60 or below in five of those six seasons. He’s also no stranger to the power-arm role, delivering back-to-back seasons in 2011 and 2012 of 200-plus strikeouts (225 and 223 respectively). If Shields can continue to prove he’s a consistent 200-inning, 180-plus strikeout kind of guy, this trade alone could save Moore’s reputation in KC.

3-Wood: RHP Ervin Santana

Some years you can’t help but want to give this guy a giant fist bump, or some years it seems like he just needs a hug to ease the pain. When you leaf through his numbers over the last nine seasons, you see some numbers that jump off the page from a healthy stand point. Unfortunately, you also catch a glimpse of some misfortune when it comes to the injury bug. However, when healthy, Santana is going to provide the support for Shields the Royals need in-order for this No. 1-2 combination to elevate the franchise out of futility and well past mediocre. 2008 showed the flashes of power and command, compiling 219 innings on the mound with 214 strikeouts to only 47 walks. Just like any golfers 3-wood, you need the power to get down the fairway, but the control to stay out of the hazards. Santana’s issue has been command over the past few seasons with his walks being closer to the 80s, rather than the 50s.

3-Hybrid: RHP Wade Davis

The game of golf has changed and lately, you find many golfers carrying the flexibility of the hybrids as opposed to the stiff and rigid play of the irons. Well, as the second key piece to the Shields-Will Myers swap, Davis provides that flexibility in a big way. Even though all reports for now say Davis will be holding down a spot in the rotation, his versatility over the past few seasons shows why he was a big acquisition in exchange for Myers and Co. Last year with the Rays, Davis appeared in 54 games to punch out 87 hitters in a little over 70 innings of work out of the bullpen. During 2010-2011, Davis went a combined 23-20 as a starter, something which the Royals would welcome with open arms seeing as consistency has not been a staple of the starting rotation as of late. At the end of the day, Davis is going to play a big role in the rotation, and if need be for short-handed reasons or glaring need; Davis will fill a bullpen spot quite nicely.

4-Hybrid: LHP Danny Duffy

We know this much with the young Duffy:  he’s got some big league “stuff.” Yost and the Royals are unsure of where Duffy fits in at the moment. He’s still nursing himself back to health after Tommy John Surgery, but showed his excitement for his return to the mound, even if it was only for the chance to throw 15-20 rust-shaking fastballs. Rumors have swirled that Duffy’s return would actually call for him to patrol the bullpen, until a spot in the rotation opened up, if even one ever actually does. However, because of his youth and promise, the Royals are going to make it a point to keep him around and involved until he’s ready to fully assume hold of a coveted spot in the rotation.

5-Iron: RHP Felipe Paulino

While Duffy’s role is in limbo right, Paulino’s may be easier to figure out. The righty showed signs early on last season that he was going to have a quality contribution to the rotation. However, much like Duffy, injuries tanked his season. Through seven starts he posted a 1.67 ERA with a 3-1 record. Apparently, the Royals saw enough flash of ability to ink him to a $1.75 million contract for the 2013 season. This leads me to believe that the Royals see him as a candidate to break camp with the team, however, a crowded rotation could designate Paulino for bullpen duty. With the pedigree of a starter, Paulino will likely eat up innings in long relief. Few golfers would venture to pull their 5-Iron out when asked to pick their favorite club, which is why Paulino fits this duty just fine. He may not be a front-runner for the next poster-figure of the Royals, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to prove his worth.

6-Iron: RHP Nathan Adcock

Manager Ned Yost has shown his loyalty to Adcock over the last few seasons, regularly calling for Adcock as one of the first arms from the pen. The big righty has displayed versatility with being able to swing from the pen to the rotation for spot starts, but has also showed consistency in relief. The nasty factor isn’t necessarily in Adcock repertoire, but being able to fill multiple roles allows him the opportunity to stick with the big league club. Adcock logged just over 60 innings of big league service with the Royals in 2011, but struggled with control at times, which had a hand in his ERA inflating to 4.62. If he eliminates allowing the big fly in relief situations, he’ll prove to be a useful arm on the active roster.

Jun 3, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) delivers a pitch in the seventh inning against the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won the game 2-0. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

7-Iron: RHP Kelvin Herrera

Many golfers have little problem with hitting their big clubs for distance, but we’ve reached the pivotal part in golfers game where the short game rules. The 7-Iron is a club that gives you the freedom of hitting with power, but also the control to lock-in for a crucial stroke. Herrera, who is relatively new to the big league scene, showed brilliance at time in 2012, logging over 80 innings while putting his 100-mph arm on display to blow away opposing hitters. His combination of power and pure filth, his mid- to upper-80s slider, shows why the Royals have high hopes and faith in Herrera’s ability out of the pen. The young righty has the potential and the nastiness in his pitches to blossom into a coveted closer at some point in his career.

8-Iron: LHP Everett Teaford

Honestly, either RHP Louis Coleman or Teaford could play the role of the next two clubs, simply because their ability to work through some jams and tough job assignments. Teaford, however, gives some left-handed depth in the pen dominated by righties. Teaford has consistently posted 30+ strikeouts over the past two seasons with a combined 90 innings of work at the big league level. He doesn’t dazzle you with his pitching, but he’s gritty, which is just what you need sometimes when you’re sitting a few paces off the fairway or a short stroll from the tee box to the pin. Teaford’s job could be at risk however with an abundance of starting pitchers vying for a few precious starts, and the likeliness of a couple being demoted to relief duty if they can’t scratch out a rotational spot.

9-Iron: Coleman

Afore mentioned, this really is a push between Teaford and Coleman. Coleman has been a familiar face over the past few seasons and a very recognizable delivery from the mound. His funky pitching style keeps hitters off-balance at times, but at times he failed to fool the big bats, surrendering 10 HRs in 2012 in just 50 innings of work. The plus side in his innings of work this past season was 65 strikeouts. He’s got the arm and ability to work out of jams, but too often he struggled with his control, allowing for the offensive explosions at time. Again, Coleman could be an odd-man out if the Royals choose to load their bullpen with some of the big arms which fail to make the rotation.

Pitching-Wedge: RHP Aaron Crow

The former All-Star and Mizzou star, Crow has transformed from a promising rotation prospect, to a quality set-up man for the ninth frame. Crow struggles with consistency, flashing signs of shear dominance, to spurts of struggle and futility. The young arm has posted back-to-back seasons of 65 strikeouts, but in 2012 Crow entered into eight save opportunities, but blew six of eight chances. He won’t have to struggle or worry about not breaking camp with the Royals, and will enter the season as the undisputed set-up man to the closer.

Sand-Wedge: LHP Tim Collins

When it comes to a specialty club, there isn’t another club in the whole bag that golfers despise having to resort to. However, for the Royals, Collins provides a safety blanket in tough situations. When games are tight and the pesky lefties head to the plate, it’s almost a sure thing that you’ll see the bullpen gate fly open with the 5-foot-7-inch lefty not far behind. Just this last season alone, Collins was just shy of 70 innings of work, but racked up 93 strike outs. In 2011, Collins posted 67 innings with 60 strikeouts, bringing his two-season tally to 153 punch outs through only 136.2 innings of duty. Golfers all around the world would give just about anything to have that type of proficiency when chipping out of the sand.

August 11, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Tim Collins (55) pitches in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Royals defeated the Orioles 7 – 3. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Putter: RHP Greg Holland

For many years, Royals fans became accustomed to welcoming former closer Joakim Soria (now with the Texas Rangers) into the game for the critical save opportunities. With Soria no longer with the Royals, Holland has stepped up to the fill the role vacated. For much of last year KC relied on Jonathan Broxton (now with the Cincinnati Reds), but after being dealt midway through the season, the job was handed to Holland. In 20 chances, Holland iced 16 saves, while piling up 91 strikeouts through 67 innings of service. Barring injury, Holland will have little competition this spring for the closer role considering his success in the past season. If he can sustain his efficiency through last season, Holland will play a hand in what the Royals hope, is quite a few more wins than the Royals are accustomed to in recent times.

While none of this is exact science, you can see how a pitcher’s strength or skill set would transfer to the game of golf. Just recently, Jeff Francoeur took the time to organize a team scramble tournament, selecting Herrera, Paulino and Coleman to his team. While spring training is a time for players to readjust their minds and bodies to the everyday grind of baseball, it’s also a time for a little relaxation and team bonding.

So with that comes the time to open the KoK Mailbag to flush out of the bad mojo that may still be left from an offseason that saw a questionable trade, an encouraging signing, and a Dayton Moore patented “WTF” veteran presence acquisition.

As always, have a question, shoot it to KoKMailbag@gmail.com

On to the bag:

I can’t wait until James Shields comes to town, wins a Cy Young, and shuts up all you stupid bloggers. – James, Raytown.

Two things: 1) I’m just going to assume the name is a coincidence 2) so do I. As do most of us “bloggers”, I’m sure.

And that’s the strange disconnect in this odd little battle of one side versus the other that typically involves one side shouting at the other simply because they happen to view things differently: we all want the Royals to win.

Now there are some that will argue that the Royals “winning” in 2013 – which most likely won’t result in more than 85 wins – will do more harm than good for the future of the franchise, and their argument is not without validity. If your position is that Dayton Moore is not a competent general manager – and that argument is not without validity either – anything that shows the existence of real progress only sets the organization back because it would almost assuredly mean more Dayton Moore.

With more, uh, Moore, means less J.J. Picollo. By that, I mean, the true architect of the success the Royals are about to enjoy will be lost to another organization and a promotion, because there’s no way a man of Picollo’s resume continues to be just a Scouting Director for long. No way.

That’s just how one side sees it.

The other sees wins as wins, and as long as this year’s wins are more than last year’s wins, well then that’s better. And that argument isn’t without validity either.

The only issue with that argument though is you have to still be objective. If you hope upon hope, and wish real hard, maybe the Royals win 90 games in 2013. Sure there are some projections that have them doing something around that, but let’s be honest, right field and second base will be among the worst positions in the game, there are still people that think Jarrod Dyson should be playing centerfield and leading off every day, and the starting rotation picked up one above-average starter this offseason to give them a total of one above-average starter. Ninety wins is asking for a lot.

So even if the Royals win 85 games this year, improve on 2012, at what benefit is it really in relation to the cost if they don’t make the playoffs?

And sure 2014 plays into the picture, but the argument of “well if they make the playoffs in the next two years, this trade is a win” is utter nonsense. In order for this trade to be a “win”, the Royals need to either make the World Series, or come within a game or two of it. Why? Because the value to the next five years after ‘14 lost in Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, and having them cheaply coupled with hopefully mid-peak Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alicides Escobar…. you get the picture.

“The Process”, actually, worked. It just worked later than expected. And before the Royals could really capitalize by using their considerable resources – money because of a large group of cheap players, instead of players themselves – Dayton Moore panicked because there are fans that see a win total, and only a win total, as signs of progress.

Which, oddly, is the same group that four years ago was saying that it was the wins that didn’t matter, but all the behind the scenes stuff did.

Every year is the time to win, but you still have to be objective about your chances. I once heard Keith Law on a podcast say that teams that didn’t have a legitimate shot at making a title run should be in constant rebuild mode. (Or at least something to that effect.) Teams shouldn’t sacrifice long-term potential for moderate short-term gains. It’s a waste of resources and assets that ultimately doesn’t amount to much.

This is all a long way of saying yes, I hope James Shields does win a Cy Young. But I still got the 2013 Royals at 80 wins (as of right now), and I don’t see even a dominant James Shields really mattering all that much.

If you could compare the Dayton Moore regime to one current television show, which one would it be? – Josh, Austin.

No brainer: ‘How I Met Your Mother’.

The show has had a longer run than intelligently justifiable. For all the things that it’s supposed to be (funny, or a winner) it’s not, there’s one excruciatingly unlikeable character (Robin or some combination of Chris Getz, Ned Yost, or Luke Hochevar) among a gaggle of forgettable parts, and the one piece of the puzzle that’s supposed to be the comic relief and the most recognizable of them all (Barney or Jeff Francoeur), is so far-and-away, eye-roll inducing annoying, it’s unbearable.

Other than that, both ‘How I Met Your Mother’ and the Dayton Moore regime have been real gems.

What’s your pre-Spring Training prediction for the Royals record? – Brian, Georgia

As I said above, 80 wins. Of course that’s movable up or down dependent on Spring Training and who wins the position battles coming out of it.

By the way, there is no more overrated, and insanely archaic baseball philosophy than the idea that 20 scattered at-bats a week for four weeks, against mediocre pitching, is a true barometer for which player deserves more playing time than another. Spring Training as a playing time determinant is a farce and not enough media members do a good enough job of calling out organizations on that fact.

Also, as it stands now I’m 80% confident that Miguel Tejada is named the starting second baseman by the middle of March. And 80% is probably too low. That’s the Dayton Moore “WTF” move of the offseason, and while the laughable “there’s nothing to see here” people continue to give these kinds of acquisitions a pass, I’ve seen this movie before. Like every Ben Stiller or Farrelly Brothers vehicle: second verse, same as the first.

I agree that it’s a big trade, but it was an odd statement coming out of a conversation about the relative value of other alternatives.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitchers James Shields (left) and Wade Davis speak during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The frequency with which minor league players of the year are traded early in their big league careers is rare. To have one traded before their big league career truly starts is unprecedented. And if Shields brings a playoff appearance (or two) with him, then yes, it’s probably going to go down as the biggest trade in team history.

But for now, I just can’t put it in that category. It’s too soon to make that claim and there are strong contenders for that title already.

To be the Biggest Trade in Royals History, I’m thinking it has to be transformative. Something that impacts the franchise for years to come. There are some that looked like run-of-the-mill deals but turned out to bring Royals legends into the fold (like the trades that brought Cookie Rojas,  Hal McRae or Amos Otis to Kansas City), but they may not have been the blockbusters that break into SportsCenter today or put the Royals at the center of baseball coverage.

The Zack Greinke trade is close. A year removed from the Cy Young Award, the Royals traded him off for four players who looked like they could all be regular contributors. Alcides Escobar had been a top shortstop prospect for years. Lorenzo Cain was among the Brewers best prospects and even today, despite injury questions, he’s getting every shot to be the everyday center fielder. Jeremy Jeffress‘s potential was being compared to Craig Kimbrel‘s at the time. Some called Jake Odorizzi “Zack Greinke Lite”.

That’s a big trade. In one move the Royals restocked their upper minors and major leagues with potential regulars with room to grow. (And Odorizzi, of course, was included in the Shields trade).

I remember being younger when the Royals traded Bret Saberhagen to the Mets. I wrote more in-depth about this deal a while back, but it wasn’t dissimilar to the Greinke deal. Cy Young winner traded for parts who could contribute soon. It was even bigger to me than the Greinke deal, partly because it was a surprise to me at the time, and partly because Saberhagen had won two Cy Young Awards and had brought a World Championship to Kansas City.

Oct 22, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) hits a base hit against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of game seven of the 2012 NLCS at AT

But to me, the biggest trade, both in names and in meaning to the franchise was the trade that sent Carlos Beltran to Houston and brought Mark Teahen, Mike Wood and John Buck to Kansas City. The Royals weren’t thrust into the spotlight but the symbolism involved was immense. The Royals had already dealt away Jermaine Dye and Johnny Damon. Beltran was the last piece they couldn’t lock down and, in near-desperation to get anything for him, they gambled on players who had to produce.

Wood turned out to be irrelevant. Buck had his moments, but never ended up being anything but a near-average catcher. Teahen looked like a true star in the making after leading the team in homers in 2006, but just two years later, he was falling below replacement level. The Royals missed, just as they’d missed with most of their pitching prospects in the years when they still had Beltran, just as they’d missed on strong returns for All-Star players in Dye and Damon. Missing on the Saberhagen trade didn’t cripple the Royals. Their 1992 wasn’t good, but they were able to turn it around in 1993 and were surging before the strike in 1994.

But this Beltran trade turned many fans away and cemented the “stars won’t stay here” narrative in Royals fans’ psyche. In their best month of the 2004 season, they were three games below .500. They lost 104, 106 and 100 games in the 2004-2006 stretch and have just Chris Getz (who came over from the White Sox for Teahen) as the thread of that deal. The need for a complete rebuild led to the ouster of Allard Baird and the new investment in the farm system that led to going after high-ceiling high-bonus players like Wil Myers.

That’s a lot of baggage in one trade.

Perhaps it’s that issue of the time of the deal. I wasn’t alive when the Otis et al deals were made, and the coverage of those moves would have been drastically different from the 24 hour cycle of sports news and Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors that we have now where there aren’t just reports of the deal but rumors for weeks leading up to it and instant reaction from everyone with a modem. The era changes the perception, and a deal made under similar circumstances in 1983 isn’t going to resonate as loudly as it does now (but then, if Gregg Jefferies had had his numbers from 1993 in 1992, he might have stuck around a bit longer and that trade looks a lot better).

I could see an argument that the Myers-Shields deal is right in the running though. It’s a departure from the last 20 years of rebuilding plans. Now the Royals are going out to get the big fish and giving up big prospects to do so. It makes a statement, and if the Royals win a division or make the playoffs in the next two years, there won’t be a question about it. It will then be the biggest deal in franchise history.

Until then, there’s still a lot of work to do to overcome the impact of moves completed in the past.

June 10, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe you agree with that assessment, maybe you don’t, but that sets up an idea of what expectations should be for the 2013 season. There will need to be some growth from the offense, but even that won’t be enough. If the Royals are going to be close to a division title or even a wild card spot, Morosi’s take has to be true – the new rotation of James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis and whoever ends up winning the fifth spot has to be better than the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins.

Just to get an overview, I looked at the projected starting rotations (based off of MLB Depth Charts) and compared the four non-Tigers pitching staffs and looked at their previous three seasons and the ERA+ figures for those rotations. There’s no clear second-best team, but the Royals are at least in the mix by that quick comparison.

There are, of course, caveats to consider with this comparison. Pitchers with asterisks have either relieved for significant parts of one or more seasons (Myers, Davis, Duensing) or are young enough that they don’t have three full seasons to measure (Carrasco, McAllister, Hendriks, Sale, Quintana, Diamond). Peavy only pitched half seasons in 2010 and 2011.

Also, players like Jimenez look bad in this measurement when his seasons prior to the last three were very good. Santana is dragged down by a bad 2012 after a solid 2010 and 2011, while Shields has 2010 as an anchor but his last two seasons were great. But if we assume that most of these pitchers will be around where they’ve been in the past this gives a close enough overview of who the Royals have to compete with.

I think they hold up pretty well, but Chicago has a mix of solid contributors and one potential true “Ace”. Theirs is a strong group and I’d give them a solid edge over Kansas City. Sale has the potential to be very good for years to come. He could also get hurt. Or Peavy could. Or Danks and Floyd could both collapse and fail to reach their league average performance of the last few years. Of course, there’s enough skepticism about Shields outside of Tropicana Field (and without Tampa Bay’s defense behind him) to raise similar questions, and if Santana’s terrible 2012 wasn’t just an outlier, he’s going in the wrong direction.

Davis is a complete wild card. He was dominant for much of 2012 but that was exclusively out of the bullpen. He has some good pitches, good movement, and throws hard, but those attributes don’t always stick around for a full game as a starter when a reliever can just let it all out in shorter stints. If he can harness it and utilize his arsenal over six inning stretches consistently, well, the Royals will have a nice #4 starter. But there’s just as much chance he gets shuffled back into a bullpen role later on if he struggles with the transition back to starting. If he can hang around average (which he was close to in 2010-2011 as a starter in Tampa) he’ll stick in the back-end.

So many factors. So many possibilities. The Detroit Tigers rotation is the class of the AL Central, but maybe Morosi’s right. Maybe Kansas City will have the second-best rotation in the division. I heart hopes he’s right. My head says he’s still a bit off.

The Royals are on track to have four starters for the entirety of 2013 who didn’t pitch a full season with Kansas City in 2012. It’s a major overhaul of a starting staff that threw less innings than all but two teams (the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies had less innings from starters) and were in the bottom third in the majors in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR from their starters. After all that activity, of course I’m going to be curious about these projections.

August 22, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) gets ready to throw a pitch against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Be sure to check out the full Royals ZiPS projections here – I’ve filtered out everyone but the top eight potential starting pitchers (James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Bruce Chen and Will Smith) for the Royals in 2013 (omitting Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino due to an uncertain timetable of recovery), but definitely go to Szymborski’s link for the full listing of projections which include ratios, counting stats, and advanced elements like WAR.

Along with ZiPS projections, I looked at projections from the Bill James Baseball Annual for 2013 as a means of comparison. The James projections have a reputation of being optimistic so I think seeing both together can give us an idea of how these things can vary. I’ll add the disclaimer that these are just projections and not predictions.

Here’s a table of our select group of pitchers in alphabetical order:

In general, that looks alright. Shields is expected to be the leader of the staff and the projections demonstrate that. The James projections were done just after the 2012 season (the book came out in early November) so Davis is projected as a reliever. ZiPS has him as a starting pitcher. Based on these projections, here are your top five in FIP and ERA:

You can how the two systems differ. If the James ERA projections are how the season goes, it’ll be a fun summer. Everyone’s either better than or right around average. But ZiPS? Not nearly as fun. Again, projections aren’t predictions, but they take into account various factors and try to get close. Last year’s ZiPS projections had Billy Butler at 19 home runs and Jonathan Sanchez having a 4.36 ERA. They weren’t too far off from getting Chris Getz right, though, and Mike Moustakas finished with one more homer than ZiPS projected.

What I take away is that these projections look more like a range of performance. Players find ways to do better than you’d ever expect or to have a bad season that confuses everyone. It is a game played on the field and not on the spreadsheet, after all. (If you’re curious, Bill James projects Wil Myers to hit 28 homers with an OPS of .824 in 147 games.)

September 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Will Smith (53) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

With pitching, it can be even more difficult to project because pitchers get hurt, numbers can look awful after just a handful of bad games, performance regresses. Making things more difficult, the Royals have a trio of pitchers acquired via trade who now have different defenders behind them, a different catcher behind the plate and will pitch about half their games in a different stadium.

Szymborski notes that his projection for the average American League ERA is 4.09. By that measure, none of these pitchers will be better than average (though that figure also factors in relievers. He doesn’t give a projected average ERA specific to starting pitchers). That’s a little bit scary considering these were the moves that were supposed to put the Royals right at the heels of the Detroit Tigers. The Royals should be better than in 2012, but looking at their top five starters ERAs (with more than 80 innings pitched) from last season, it’s hard to not be better.

Injuries factored into those depressing totals – I’m sure Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino would have done better than Smith and Hochevar did last season at least – but that’s no excuse. Every team deals with injuries.

I do find it interesting to see how well the projections treat Smith and Davis. If Davis can be better than average, that adds a lot of value to the trade that got him here. Smith could be a lot closer to pushing Chen out than we think. Either of them could surprise.

The  Royals should be better, but it’s no guarantee. It’s important to recall that while they were active and made improvements to the rotation, they did so by acquiring players who were made available to them. Santana was expendable to the Angels. Davis had been shifted to the bullpen by the Rays, and a crowded (and younger) rotation made Shields available. Guthrie wouldn’t have been an option last season if not for his own struggles in Colorado. All four have shown what they can do – Santana had strong years as recently as 2010 and 2011, Davis wasn’t too far from being an average starter during his first two full seasons in that role, Shields has been very good the last two years – but now this group has to go out and do it again. They have to outperform these projections if they’re to lead Kansas City to meaningful baseball that extends past the All-Star break.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher James Shields speaks during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t think too many fans will argue Dayton Moore has done quite a bit to improve the starting pitching on this team – but how much has it improved?

Back in September, I took a look at the Kansas City rotation versus an average staff using fWAR. An average AL rotation had an fWAR of 9.65, while Kansas City’s, at that time, was a 7.3…well below average. By the end of 2012, it had gone up to a 7.6…still well below average.

At the time, I was examining whether getting a couple of number three starting pitchers would be enough to get us to that average mark of 9.65…of course, the Royals have almost completely overhauled the rotation at this point, so I’m going to go back to that fWAR number and try to see where the team sits as of right now.

We’ll start with James Shields, the new ace of the rotation who came over from the Tampa Bay Rays.  For his career, Big Game James has a cumulative fWAR of 25.3 over the span of seven years. I’m going to toss out the first season, which only saw him throw 124.2 innings, and begin with his first full season. That gives Shields a total fWAR of 23.4 in six seasons from 2007-2012. During that stretch, Shields has an average fWAR of 3.9…not too shabby, and puts the Royals more than halfway to that 7.3 number. We’re off to a good start.

The number two man in this rotation will likely be Jeremy Guthrie, who pitched in KC last year after Moore was able to sucker the Colorado Rockies into taking Jonathan Sanchez in a swap of struggling pitchers. Guthrie pitched like an ace once he arrived, although it’s safe to say he won’t be quite that good again…but given his history of pitching for the Baltimore Orioles – should be at least an average pitcher. Beginning with his first season in Baltimore, Guthrie has amassed a career fWAR of 12.1 (2007-2012).  That works out to an average fWAR of 2.16 per season. The new rotation already sits at 6.06 based on these two pitchers just doing what they normally do.

Ervin Santana – The key to a winning season? Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The number three pitcher in the 2013 rotation is Ervin Santana. With Santana, we have a pitcher who can either be dominant or pretty frustrating to watch…probably not as frustrating as Luke Hochevar…but I’m not here to bag on Luke (this time). Santana has been a monster at times – posting fWAR’s of 3.4 and 5.8 in 2006 and 2008…but last year dropped all the way into negative territory with a -0.9. For his career, however, Santana has a total fWAR of 17.3 from 2005-2012, good for an average of 2.16. This puts him even with Guthrie. Guthrie has probably been a steadier performer throughout his career, but Santana has shown flashes of brilliance, and could be the guy who really makes the difference in 2013.

Three pitchers into this experiment – and the fWAR of the rotation sits at 8.22, already surpassing what the Royals starting rotation did in 2012. Given the average for an AL rotation last season was roughly 9.65, the front end of this rotation puts KC in a position to be at least average, if not a little better.

There are still question marks at the back of the rotation. Will Wade Davis be able to perform well enough as a starter? He was below average from 2009-2011 in the role (only six starts in 2009), putting up a total fWAR of 2.6 during that time, in 64 total starts. As a reliever in 2012, he was dominant, and put up a 1.1 fWAR in 69 innings, while posting an ERA of just 2.43. If Davis can be a legit number four…and I think (hope) he can…we’re in business.  Even if he only posts an fWAR of about 1.0, the team total sits at 9.22, just a shade below that 9.65 mark.

The number five spot will probably go to Hochevar, Bruce Chen, or Luis Mendoza…with all three probably sharing the duty during the season. I’m guessing Chen breaks camp with the job, being the only lefty of all the pitchers mentioned thus far, but I don’t know that he’ll be good enough to hold the job for long. Whatever the case, Mendoza had an fWAR of 1.7 last year, Hochevar a 1.5, and Chen a 1.3. As bad as Chen and Luke were last year as the 1-2 combo for this team…they won’t hurt the team nearly as much sharing the duties of the fifth man.

The bad news? Those last two spots could be trouble.

The good news? Last season, all five spots were trouble (outside of Guthrie’s run).

Keep in mind the intangibles these guys bring to the table as well. Shields is a proven number one starter with postseason experience, and by all accounts, a strong leader. Santana has seen postseason action (five series in four seasons) on a winning Angels team, and Guthrie came of age pitching against the AL East, facing dominant Yankees and Red Sox lineups.

With the new front three, the Royals should have pitchers who can fight and hang in there with the best the AL Central has to offer. I’m not saying any of the three are Justin Verlander, but I think all three could beat Verlander on any given day. And hey…if we get to a Wild Card game…I’ll take my chances that, with a guy like Big Game James on the bump, we’ve got a shot.

But 2013 is the year the Royals think they’re ready to compete for a division title, or at least a year they’re making an all-out effort to compete, if they can just find enough pitching and the right mix of veteran defensive back-ups to provide the necessary leadership for a young(ish) roster in need of guidance. If they can just find enough pitching and defense.

Pitching and defense win championships and the reason we know this is because there is no shortage of sound bites and articles of people surrounding the industry telling us every chance they get. Pitching and defense: it’s the “currency of baseball”, or something, and without it, presumably, you can’t contend for a divisional title. Contend for a divisional title.

You see, there is a difference between “competing” and “contending”. Long have fans just wished the Royals would finish somewhere near .500, just to have the hope that each night there was at least a 50/50 chance of seeing a winner. That’s from a fan perspective. That’s competing.

From an organizational perspective, however, finishing .500 probably does more harm than good because it gives the appearance that progress is being made, steps are being taken, when in reality, finishing .500 in a weak division is something that should be the norm, not the outlier.

Finishing .500 is really no different than finishing with just 70 wins, because you’re not contending. There’s an argument to be made that if your team isn’t close enough to contend for a playoff spot with a major push for a championship, then the focus should be on acquiring and hoarding as much future talent as possible. There’s an argument.

For 2013, that’s not the approach the Royals chose to take.

In addition to the futility of 2012, in 2011 the Royals finished 27^th in baseball with a 4.45 ERA. In 2010, 29^th. The last time the Royals finished in the top 20 in baseball in ERA was 2007. Five full seasons ago.

So because pitching and defense win championships, and the Royals have been so bad at developing their own starting pitching while Dayton Moore has been general manager, it is understandable how the organization would come to the conclusion that their only hope of competing in 2013 is to acquire starting pitching and lots of it (or at the very least, acquire some kind of an upgrade over what is currently in the rotation), and sign some kind of insurance for a defense that has two very glaring weaknesses to supplement the pitching as much as possible.

When the going get tough, though, the tough don’t trade 25 years worth of controlled contracts for a 31 year old pitcher with two years remaining, and a swing man who has never stuck in the rotation for two contract years and three option years. That’s what the Royals did, however, and out the door went their only legitimate replacement to one of the worst everyday players in baseball.

Then that move has since been compounded by adding some defensive bodies to the mix after the signing of Endy Chavez, which is mostly of little consequence unless Jarrod Dyson falls on his face in centerfield, and Miguel Tejada, which is so over-the-top astonishing, yet at the same time predictable, it makes perfect sense.

When first announced, the Tejada deal was a minor league contract with an invitation to the big league camp in spring training. Basically, a flyer on a guy as insurance. Which in itself is reasonable until you remember that Tejada didn’t play in the major leagues a season ago, is going to be 39 years old, and hasn’t been any good for at least three seasons. Then, as if the shear notion of Tejada wasn’t enough, reports are out now that the deal will come with a guarantee of a spot on the 40-man roster once the Royals clear space for the former MVP to be added. That’s $1.1MM given to a player that serves little purpose other than to fulfill the “veteran leadership” quota.

So in an effort to assemble a competing roster for the first time in his tenure as general manger of the Royals, Dayton Moore has traded for Wade Davis (who will make $32.6MM over the next five years if all his club options are picked up), James Shields ($21MM over the next two years if his 2014 club option is picked up), and Ervin Santana ($12MM), and signed Endy Chavez (minor league contract) and Miguel Tejada ($1.1MM).

In all, Moore has acquired upwards of $74.7MM worth of players this offseason in exchange for the reigning Minor League Player of the Year and the organization’s closest and most polished starting pitcher candidate, for a chance to compete in a division where they’re still probably the third best team on paper.

Going all in is a reasonable organizational directive if the team is coming off an 85-win season and there are clear signs of contending for a division title and a push for a championship. But when the team is coming off a 72-win season and the 70+ million dollars worth of players acquired merely guarantee a shot at .500, then you’re relying more on the dealer than your own cards.

Greg Schaum, the awesome operator of and writer for Pinetarpress.com, recently projected the Royals to win 78 games next year; if you don’t follow him on Twitter you should. I was a little surprised by how low that number was, as were many others who let Greg know about it, I think. But I wanted to think about this myself as well so I started really digging into numbers, mostly projections and numbers from last year.

Schaum’s prediction seemed overly cautious but reasonable. In the offseason, things always look rosier than in reality. I was thinking maybe a little higher, 81, but certainly not 95. Then, I dug into the numbers and started to see that the potential for 90 wins is certainly there. Is it likely? Probably not. But the Royals wouldn’t really need a chorus of career years to get to 90 wins. They’d just need guys to perform as expected and stay relatively healthy.

Here’s why I believe that. I think people are actually underselling the importance of pitching changes and player growth—hard to believe, I know. This makes sense given the battered psyche of Royals fans. But if we dig into the numbers, the future looks a little brighter than the darkest parts of our hearts might believe.

We’ll start with the hitters and the projections Bill James has made for the Royals lineup, which is virtually unchanged from 2012:

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Gordon(.284/.366/.457) 19 HR, 95 R

Alcides Escobar (.272/.314/.365) 5 HR, 74 R

Eric Hosmer (.276/.342/.442) 20 HR, 79 R

Billy Butler (.300/.368/.490) 24 HR, 78 R

Mike Moustakas (.264/.316/.455) 23 HR, 75 R

Salvador Perez (.299/.329/.456) 16 HR, 65 R

Lorenzo Cain (.280/.332/.424) 15 HR, 83 R

Johnny Giavotella (.286/.339/.407) 7 HR, 55 R

Jeff Francoeur (.260/.314/.418) 13 HR, 50 R

Chris Getz/Irving Falu (.267/.327/.337) 1 HR, 32 R

Jarrod Dyson (.257/.323/.314) 0 HR, 29 R

Brett Hayes 0 HR, 10 R

I put homeruns and the slash lines in for context, but the most important stats are the runs scored. That’s what we’re interested in. Add up those runs scored and you get 725 runs. That’s not bad. That’s one run less than the Tigers scored last year and good enough for 12th in MLB. It’s also only five short of the 730 the Royals scored in 2011 with career years from Francoeur, Gordon, and Melky Cabrera. But remember, in 2011 Escobar wasn’t hitting and the Royals didn’t get full seasons from Perez, Moustakas, or Hosmer. If those players give full seasons of what is expected of them, the Royals can get to the 730 range again. They might need to maximize players’ opportunity to be successful *cough* sit Francoeur against righties *cough*, but they can be that offensively productive without out-of-this-world seasons from a bunch of guys.

Now, the pitching, and this seems to be where people are underestimating the value of the changes—hard to believe, right. Here are the projections by James for the Royals starting rotation:

James Shields (3.67 ERA, 89 R, 218 IP)

Jeremy Guthrie (4.20 ERA, 92 R, 197 IP)

Ervin Santana (4.04 ERA, 92 R, 205 IP)

Wade Davis (4.20 ERA, 89 R, 190 IP)*

Bruce Chen (4.25 ERA, 86 R, 182 IP)**

*This is my projection for Davis. James’ projection was for Davis as a reliever. I tried to approximate him based on his previous starting experience.

**I made Chen the fifth starter because I believe he should be the fifth starter.

By these projections, the Royals starting staff will account for 448 R over 992 IP in 2013. That’s a 4.06 ERA, which is an incredibly drastic change from 2012 when the starting rotation accounted for 527 R in 890 IP for a 5.00 ERA. This is a remarkable projection. For a team to shave a full run off the starting staff’s ERA while adding 100 innings is remarkable. If the Royals can do that, they will be playoff contenders almost certainly.

However, with starting pitching, injuries ineffectiveness are bound to play a role. So, for the sake of making this projection as fair as possible, let’s raise that ERA a little to 4.20 to account for some of those unknown variables. That’s around major league average. That brings the starting staff to 463 R over 992 IP (I’m still going to assume we get the same number of total innings from starters).

Sep 27, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen was fantastic last year, and because there are so many pitchers in the bullpen I’m going to do their numbers as a group. They had a 3.17 ERA last year, and there’s no reason that with a years worth of experience and a better starting staff they won’t at least stay that good. Assuming the Royals pitch roughly the same number of innings this year as last, that means the bullpen will account for 162 R in 459 IP in 2013. That brings the total number of runs allowed to 625 (Again, that’s using our conservative estimate of starting pitching. If we go with James’ estimation, it’s 610 R).

Luckily, we can come up with projections on win totals from projections on run totals. The Pythagorean winning percentage formula gives our projection (725 runs scored and 625 runs allowed) a record of 92-70. Of course, that doesn’t mean that Royals will win 92 games, but I think it means that the Royals have the capability of winning 92 games without some miracle scenario.

Let me be clear. I do not think the Royals are going to win 92 games. Things are going to happen that the numbers, projections, and so on can’t account for, but I think it’s fair to say that their expectation should be between 86-88 wins. They easily have the players to win that number of games. The improved starting rotation will make an extreme difference from last year when not only did they have a staff full of 4 and 5 starters, but that staff underperformed as well. They were expected to pitch like 4s and 5s and pitched like minor leaguers (some of that was due to the injuries to Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino). On offense, getting a full year of Perez and bounce back years from Hosmer and Francoeur will help tremendously (Yes, Francoeur is terrible, but he’s not as bad as he played last year).

The reason I think some people are coming up with projections lower than 86 wins is that we’re programmed as Royals fans to expect our players to underperform. We’re programmed to expect more damaging injuries than other teams, and it’s fair to have these reactions because it’s happened so many times. But let’s consider the alternative. What if there isn’t massive underperformance? What if there aren’t too many serious injuries? If those two are true, this team should win at least 86-88 games with the potential to win 92 and up.

That will be an extremely fun season to watch.

Goodbye Wil Myers… Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

I know you’re probably tired of reading about the Tampa trade by now…and while I was looking forward to writing about it, I’m not sure how excited I am to do so at this point…but I do have some things I’d like to say about the trade and state of the Royals.

First of all…a moment of silence for all the fans who are in mourning and hoping Elton John comes out with another version of “Candle in the Wind” in memoriam of Wil Myers’ Kansas City career.

Ok, now that we’ve all had a moment to reflect…

Was this a good deal? That’s hard to answer. And it can be argued many ways for either side. I’ll say this…I had very mixed emotions when I sat down to my computer Sunday night as the story started to break. I wound up monitoring the reactions until well after midnight…and went to bed still a little unsure of how I felt about the trade. The only thing I was sure of? I probably invest way too much emotion in this team.

As I rolled out of bed the next morning…sports radio talking heads were interviewing various “experts” on the topic…most to mixed reviews. The national sportswriters were split down the middle – some claiming the Royals were fleeced, some claiming they did great to land an ace another solid pitcher. It was on the drive to work that morning that I came to a decision – I’m on board with this. I do like this deal.

Let me get this out of the way…the whole “Did they overpay?” debate…I don’t know. My initial thought was “what the heck just happened??” But overpaid by whose standards? Did they overpay because Baseball America said these prospects were good? Because they have a lot of potential? Because a stat-head said it didn’t add up?

I don’t buy it. Look…I’m into all that just as much as the next baseball geek – trust me…I analyze and crunch numbers and follow the prospects and up-and-coming high school and college players. But…having the best farm system doesn’t mean crap. It’s nice…sure…but it doesn’t mean you’re going to win at the big league level – which is really all that matters. And, by the way, we still have a great farm system. The high-end prospects might be further away from the big leagues than Myers or Jake Odorizzi, but they are still damn good.

Anibal Sanchez – did we ever really have a chance? Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

The economics of baseball also come into play here. Is it stupid for KC to trade away players they can control on the cheap for several years for a high priced ace and another pitcher with a big league salary? I don’t know. I guess. And people want to argue that if KC can afford to add that salary…why don’t they go after Anibal Sanchez? Or Shaun Marcum? Or Ryan Dempster? Or bring Zack Greinke back?

Here’s the reality: those guys don’t want to come here. Why? Because they don’t want to play for loser…not just a loser…but a cheap loser. A loser who will say “we can’t afford to get better.” It’s great in theory…go sign Sanchez and Dempster and keep Myers. Don’t you think that Dayton Moore would have loved to do just that? Do you know why he didn’t? It wasn’t an option. No way they could compete with the bidding war on a guy like Greinke – as we have all seen. No way Anibal Sanchez wanted to go from the Tigers to the lowly Royals. Dempster shot down an offer. And if we went after Marcum to be anything more than a 4 or 5 starter I think I would’ve vomited. Moore did what he had to do to turn the page here in KC…to move away from a losing mindset. He went out and paid dearly to improve his big league club greatly.

You know who absolutely loves this move? The players on the big league team like Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Sal Perez, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Jeremy Guthrie, the newly acquired Ervin Santana…and so on and so on. Why? Because losing sucks. They don’t like it. They don’t like to be the punchline of MLB jokes. They like to win. And guess what? You thought it sucked to lose a guy like Myers – who we never saw suit up in Kansas City? How bad does it suck when guys can’t wait to get off this sinking ship? Guys who we have grown to love and root for like the players I just mentioned? You think they will stick around with a rotation like the one we trotted out there last year? Nope. But if the team starts winning…that’s when guys say “I want to stay put. I like it here.”

Winning can go a long way for a team like the Royals. Not only does it change the perception from outside (and potentially lures future free agents), it changes everything within the organization. It builds confidence. Guys have more fun coming to the ballpark. They build friendships. They want to be here. They believe they can win.

Shields and Davis…let’s win some ball games. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

They get mad when they don’t. It changes an organization’s entire way of thinking. You think guys like Hosmer and Moose won’t work a little harder now? Won’t be more excited? Won’t have more confidence? I say you’re crazy.

I say not only did the starting pitching improve…the bullpen just got better, too. The same bullpen that is already regarded as one of the best in baseball, but gets worn out due to overuse. Look at the durability in this rotation now. That won’t happen in 2013 – the relievers will be fresh all year, rather than worn down in August.

Not only does the starting pitching improve the bullpen…it just made the offense better as well. If you want to project Myers to be the next big thing, if you’re going to use his minor league stats to project his major league success, then you can’t believe Moustakas and Hosmer won’t improve. They will. And now, the pressure is off. The games where KC trails an opponent by six runs in the third inning are gone…because our starting pitching just got better. No more pressure to hit balls out of the park. No more watching young batters trying to hit a 7-run homer to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

It all flows through the starting pitching. But what about Jeff Francoeur, you ask? What about him? Who cares? First of all, let me say…I want him gone, but I do think he will play somewhat better (it’s not easy for someone to suck that bad). If this team’s success comes down to how Jeff Francoeur plays, though…well…the rest of the team is a lot worse than we thought. No team has a perfect nine on the field. Every team has a weak spot or two. Or more. If you want to point to a negative, look past Frenchy and ask this question: Why do the Royals stink at developing pitchers? That’s the root of a very big problem, and why this trade was necessary to begin with. But that’s a topic for another day.

I’ve rambled on long enough (give me a break, I’ve been waiting a few days to chime in…but I’m starting to feel more wordy than Rany). So…to those who want to ask “What if?”

What if Wil Myers wins Rookie of the Year? What if Wil Myers goes on to hit .280 with 30 homers every year for the next 10 years? Well, what if he doesn’t? And even if he does? The Royals still might be better off in the long run.

There was denial (“No way they’d trade six years of Wil Myers for two of James Shields“), anger (“This is a HUGE mistake!”), bargaining (“Well maybe they didn’t give up that much more. Maybe it was just Myers and a lower prospect.”), depression (“This sucks.”) and finally acceptance (“Fine. I like Shields. It’s done. I can’t change it. Bring on 2013.”)

Despite that cycle, I still think the Royals paid full retail and left a tip in their acquisition of Shields. I like the return. I don’t like the price. But Shields is good – and I’ve always been a fan – and he instantly changes the Royals rotation from a bunch of schlubs last year to a true rotation that can make some noise.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left), newly acquired pitcher James Shields (center), and manager Ned Yoast display Shield

But, again, I still don’t like the price. After 2014, the Royals won’t have Myers, will have to go find a right fielder (David Lough isn’t much of a full time option, though there’s a place for him; I’m not comfortable with Jarrod Dyson and Lorenzo Cain occupying center field and right, mostly due to Dyson’s inconsistency and Cain’s injury history), and Shields won’t be around. The Royals will have Wade Davis and a PTBNL left to show for the deal, while Tampa can have Myers approaching his prime, a developed Jake Odorizzi and a (possibly) rebuilt Mike Montgomery. all four at least four seasons past 2014.

I’m willing to keep an open mind, though.

First, the Royals have to make the playoffs during the Shields window. One of my issues with the trade, despite some national and local media proclaiming otherwise, is that it doesn’t make the Royals an instant threat and it doesn’t give them some flexibility down the line either. Matt Moore would have been locked up through 2019 potentially. David Price would be around until after 2016. Both would have had the same impact Shields had on the rotation, but they would have given the Royals some wiggle room so that they didn’t have to find a 16 win improvement in one season or, have to write off 2013 as the leadup to contention and make 2014 the *real* contending year.

It’s just complicated for me to buy into that. But, if they do it. If the offense turns around and the pitching is strong, it’s not impossible. Just improbable. Marc Simon of ESPN looked at last year’s performance and laid out a scenario by which the Royals could make such an improvement. A LOT has to go right. But it’s possible. Jeff Zimmerman of Royals Review plugged in projections from Bill James’s Annual and determined that 94 wins could be possible if everyone does as James projects. I think Jeff will tell you that James usually has very optimistic projections every year, and I believe I saw somewhere that while the Royals would win 94 games in that scenario, Detroit would win 101. So there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. And all my belly-aching and frustration with trading a top five overall prospect would be dashed if the Royals made the playoffs. I’d gladly eat crow.

So that’s one way Shields can change my mind.

Shields also told the MLB Network that he’d be open to negotiating an extension. That would change a lot of the perception of the trade. Since one of the biggest gripes is that Shields is only a two-year team member, adding some years wipes that out. Many will point out that the extension would start once Shields had turned 33 it’s more of a risk, but Jeremy Guthrie Signing: Outrage and Context” href=”http://kingsofkauffman.com/2012/11/25/the-jeremy-guthrie-signing-outrage-and-context/” target=”_blank”>I don’t mind the Jeremy Guthrie signing, so I’m not going to make that same complaint. Some pitchers are capable of throwing 200 innings year after year, and while it does create apprehension about impending injury, they’re pitchers, and pitchers can get hurt if they throw four innings in a season or 204. It’s the risk inherent in the position. If he were to sign an extension and turn the trade from two years of Shields to, say, five years, that’s a lot closer in value, and extends the window with Shields at the top of the rotation (assuming nobody else leapfrogs him, he stays healthy and the Royals don’t make other acquisitions).

That the Tigers were heavily pursuing a deal makes it all the better. By getting Shields, the Royals improve their rotation and odds of reaching the top of the division and also keep him from going to Detroit, which doesn’t improve them and extend the gap between the two. To then extend him would add more value that the Tigers didn’t get and enable them to use their target against them.

Another way I can change my mind about the deal comes down the road. Teams are now seeing that the Royals are serious about bringing in the pieces necessary to compete. That can work out to bring other players towards Kansas City. If the Royals do make this deal work and it turns them into a perennial contender, we can point to this move – and all the angst included – as the turning point. This happens to teams looking to break through. The Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez in 2004 after a 43-119 season and they improved by 29 games to 72-90. Two years later they won the wild card with 95 wins and lost the World Series. Signing Rodriguez was seen as the Tigers proclaiming that they were ready to play.

The Royals tried to make this kind of statement to an extent early in Dayton Moore’s tenure, signing Gil Meche to a five-year $55 million deal that was laughable to most at the time. In the first two years, Meche was a combined 8.5 bWAR player and was playing well in 2009 until Trey Hillman let him throw a complete game on 132 pitches, then kept sending him out there with a sore shoulder and within two weeks he was back to throwing more than 120 pitches. He was never the same. To that point though, he had proven the critics wrong, and had he been healthy through the life of his contract, maybe the Royals would have won more, maybe they extend Zack Greinke. The Meche signing would look like Dayton Moore’s Stand.

That’s what this Shields deal can be. The time when the Royals said “enough” and wanted to play with the rest of the big boys.

I’m past the point of complaining about losing Myers. It’s done. The next step is waiting for 2013, cheering on the team, and hoping that the moves made this offseason pan out as the front office hopes.

The trade’s motivating factor is Dayton Moore’s desire to win now. An understandable goal and one I could get firmly behind if Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francoeur and Chris Getz were to find themselves elsewhere next year. It’s hard to dispute the belief that signing Edwin Jackson or Ryan Dempster and replacing Francoeur with Myers would do more to accomplish Moore’s goal than trading for Shields. The Royals weren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut last season and Moore has thus far ignored question marks at second base, right field and centerfield (sorry, kids, Willy Taveras doesn’t count).

Oh right, acceptance, moving on then.

Shields instantly becomes the team’s best starting pitcher and will front the rotation. Since 1994, there have been 19 seasons where an AL Central starter pitched 200+ innings with a SO/9 of 8 or higher. Of those 19, only 2 saw ERA+’s of less than 110 (Javier Vazquez, in 2006 and 2008). Shields has reached that combo three seasons in a row. Moving away from the tough AL East it’s not hard to imagine him putting up an ERA+ in the 115-125 range. A lot has been made about his career 4.54 road ERA, but if you remove trips to Boston and New York, it drops to 4.26. Granted that is still unimpressive but it’s not awful.

Davis has been described over and over again as the wild card in the trade, which I think is an accurate assessment. His two years as a starter were very Hochevar-ish so the hope is that he can take the lessons learned in the bullpen, where he was dominant last season, and apply them in the rotation (think Zack Greinke, 2007). The more I think about it, I believe that when it comes to 2013 contention, Davis may be more important than Shields. Shields will certainly be good but if Davis steps up and fulfills his potential KC will have two above average starters to go along with Santana and Guthrie, two pitchers who will likely hover around league average. Of course if Davis can’t transition effectively back into the rotation he’ll be moved to the bullpen and a various assortment of junk will take his spot.

July 19, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Wade Davis (40) throws a pitch against the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Indians 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Southside Sox did a rotation comparison between the Royals, White Sox and Tigers and found the Royals still trailing their division rivals, despite the overhaul. They used 2012 numbers which I think can be a little deceiving. Shields, Davis and Santana are coming over from tougher divisions so I think they’ll receive a Central bump in effectiveness, so to speak. I’m not saying the Southside Sox author was necessarily wrong in his conclusion but that it’s just not an ideal comparison. He does make a solid point about Guthrie you may want to check out though.

His article made me curious about how the Royals top four have fared in their careers against the Central. They’ve done pretty well as it turns out. Shields actually has the highest ERA, which I found surprising but not concerning since most of the damage was done by the White Sox. Below are their career innings pitched and ERA’s vs the Royals’ Central opponents.

Something else that can’t be discounted is that KC will open the season with five starting pitchers capable of eating innings. That will take a tremendous load off a bullpen which saw way too much action last season. The Royals opened 2012 without a single pitcher possessing even one 200 inning season in their respective careers. That has now changed because Shields, Santana and Guthrie have combined for 13 such seasons. Davis, Chen and Hochevar each have at least one 180+ inning season just within the last couple years. So yeah, the bullpen should stay fresh.

I think Moore has built a solid rotation, albeit at a high cost. The Royals may very well be good enough to contend next season, of course that’s depending on your definition of contend. I define it as staying in the race until early August. Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino should be back by then to give the team a late season boost, but they’re likely to be a bit rusty, so how much they’ll actually contribute is anybody’s guess.

Winning now though? I don’t see it happening. Detroit is just too good. KC won’t take the their division but we could see the team’s first .500 season since 2003, in fact I’ll be disappointed with anything less. 2014, however, could be when the magic happens. Full seasons of Duffy and Paulino with Kyle Zimmer and John Lamb on deck, yeah, that’s going to be fun to watch.

Myers is gone and I’ve made my peace with it. Now I’m ready for KC to win some games and set this city on fire.

After the blockbuster trade of Wil Myers (plus) for James Shields and Wade Davis, we had to go out and get another opinion on the trade.

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As the hot stove warms up, it was time to cover the latest roster moves by the Royals in advance of the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

Our return of this blockbuster deal, netted us a solid frontline starter and a solid bullpen arm who could be a bit of a project to produce as a number three or number four down the road.  Big Game James Shields is the best starting pitcher this team has seen since Zack Greinke.  In 2011, he was an All-Star and took third in the American League Cy Young balloting.  He wasn’t quite as strong in 2012, but he still threw over 200 innings for the 6th straight season.  One thing is certain, we can count on Shields to be out there every fifth day as he’s started 33 games in each of the past five seasons.

Wade Davis will be the wild card in this deal for a few years to come.  I believe we know what we have in Shields, but Davis is definitely a question mark.  As a reliever last season he struck out 87 hitters in just over 70 innings of work.  He’s had solid years as a starter for the Rays, as he’s collected double digit wins in both his seasons as a full time starter.  His contract is very favorable to the Royals and if he can be a solid three or four starter, then this trade can be viewed as a definite win for the Royals.  Of course, that’s a very big if.  I am very optimistic that Davis will stick in the rotation, mainly because I don’t know what he would do out of the bullpen.  One thing that should happen as a result of this trade is finally push Luke Hochevar out of the rotation, at least I hope it does.

To land quality, established, front line pitching, one must give up talent as well.  The Royals certainly did just that, as they gave away three highly touted prospects.  The most notable being Baseball America’s current Minor League Player of the Year, Wil Myers.  Myers is certainly capable of being a perennial All-Star as he crushed Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2012 and has a great track record of hitting during his years spent in the minors.  However, he could also be a flop as some other coveted Royals prospects never amounted to much at the Major League level.  We all remember Mark Quinn and Dee Brown.  With Myers’ value the highest it has ever been, the Royals capitalized and received two great arms in return.  Personally, I would have loved getting Price in return or perhaps Hellickson and Shields together, but Davis and Shields drastically changes our major league rotation for the better.

The Rays also received the Royals best pitching prospect in Jake Odorizzi.  I’m not sold on the fact that Jake Odorizzi will be an elite pitcher or even a number two or three for that matter.  I think it speaks volumes that he was a first round draft pick, and yet two teams have already traded him away.  I think his ceiling equates exactly to a Wade Davis type and Davis has already been proven in the big leagues, as a solid reliever and an average starter.  In that part of the trade, I believe we made out just fine.

Mike Montgomery is a very intriguing guy for me.  It is clear he just is not getting it right now.  A change of scenery and a new organization has me believing he can turn himself into a very serviceable starter or solid lefty bullpen arm for several years.  Just remember he’s only 23 years old, and the Rays have a history of developing young pitching.  I didn’t want to see him go, but for him to be successful he would have to eventually leave this organization and I would like for him to succeed.

So, what does this all mean?  Simply put, the Royals are making a conscious effort to push for the playoffs.  That is the main reason why I have reached my peace with this move.  I think I’m just so used to being a fan of a team that is always the one receiving prospects, that it just caught me off guard.  Once I realized that we might actually have a serviceable rotation top to bottom, it kind of got me really excited for this coming season to start.  I do not think the front office’s work is done by any means.  If the organization wants to go all in and commit to winning, I think there is room for one more additional quality starter.  I don’t want to put a label on these next two years as being “playoffs or bust”, but a winning record and a contending team in September is a must.

I still don’t like the fact we overpaid for pitching, but the deal is done and it should benefit us in the short run to compete in the AL Central to try and break our playoff drought.  One last thing, it will be nice, come April, to actually send out a starter on Opening Day who we can legitimately call an Opening Day starter.

What I offer the viewing public is a hazy answer to these two questions: What would it have looked like if Shields had been a part of the Royals rotation in 2012? And by extension, to what extent might he impact 2013? Obviously, there are many flaws in this inquiry; most obvious among them is the person conducting it. But also, the high level of turnover makes the 2013 rotation virtually incomparable to the 2012 rotation. But using my favorite friends conjecture and speculation I’ll find a way to make it seem like I’ve stumbled upon some grand statistical truth. Or not. Yeah?

Ok. Check the methods. I started by constructing the numbers for the Royals starters from last year (this is why they may look a tenth off from other sites). I actually added up all the numbers from only their starters and did the averages and everything. So, essentially what I’m doing is replacing an average Royals starting pitcher from 2012 with Shield’s 2012. This is a little disingenuous because in reality, Shields would have crowded out some of the worst performances so chalk it up to a conservative statistical exercise. I chose to use Shields’ 2012 not just because it’s the obvious choice to compare to the Royals’ starting pitching in 2012 but also because it’s pretty representative of what people should expect from Shields in 2013. This inquiry also doesn’t account for Shields’ ability to eat innings—meaning if Shields had been in the rotation last year the Royals starters would have gone more total innings. It’s just a replacement of his innings for average Royals innings.

Here’s what I came up with:

Royals*          Shields          Royals w/Shields

Earned Runs             495                 89                   457

Hits                             981                 208                 938

Walks                          315                 58                   292

ERA                             5.00                3.52               4.62

WHIP                          1.46                1.17                1.38

*These are numbers for all 13 pitchers who started a game for the Royals last season

There you have it, a pretty remarkable difference. Almost half-a-run in improved ERA is pretty significant for one pitcher to bring to the table. He can have that type of impact because he pitches so many innings. His 227.2 innings pitched represent more than a quarter of the total number of innings Royals starters pitched in 2012—890. That is both incredible and not surprising. It’s incredible that Shields gives his team so many innings; it’s also incredible how little the Royals starters pitched last year. So it’s not surprising that Shields’ numbers make such a large dent. In innings, he’s worth 1.25 Royals starting pitchers in 2012, which if you’re a stats person is just nuts.

How do the numbers with Shields in the Royals lineup compare to the rest of the league? Still not great, but better. American League average for starting pitching ERA was 4.39, which isn’t too far away from the Royals numbers with Shields in the rotation. Last year, they were 11th in starting pitcher ERA (AL). Personally, I was shocked to learn they weren’t last or next to last. With Shields, they would have only moved up to 10th, but remember this is a pretty conservative estimate. I think it’s fair to say that in reality, with him replacing the worst performances, they might have made it near the 7-8 range.*

*This is off topic, but sometimes I wonder how this team even won 72 games last year. They were just not very good at all.

Looking ahead, I’m thinking this provides a little rosy glow to a trade many, including me, have criticized as short-sighted and reckless. Assuming the Royals get a Shields performance circa the last two years, he’ll greatly impact the rotation. The odds of a 12 game losing streak decrease dramatically, and there’s something to be said for playing with a lead entering the sixth inning occasionally. Consider that no starting pitcher for the Royals was worth more than 1.8 WAR last season, and Shields was worth 4.3, and this trade makes 2013 look hopeful. Are the Royals the favorite in the AL Central? No. But they’re in the conversation for sure.

I imagine the Royals have the chance to make it to around 4.00 ERA as a starting staff next season if everything falls into place. This would be a HUGE help. Last season, that would have been good enough for 5th in the American League just ahead of the Angels. That, of course, will require good seasons from Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis as well. That’s probably asking too much, but what the hell, dream big.

Thanks to copious amounts of propaganda and time to emotionally detach from the transaction, I’m starting to feel much better about it. Is it a HUGE gamble? Yes. Essentially, Moore is betting that in the next two years Shields, and in the next four years Davis, provide enough value in helping the team win to make up for the lost value of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi from 2015-2018, at least. That could mean increasing revenue via winning so they can spend to sign position players long term. It could mean buying time to let Jorge Bonifacio develop and counting on him to become a legitimate everyday outfielder at the major league level. Whatever the scenario, it’s a huge gamble.

But I’m starting to fall on the side of those who think the Royals had to gamble at some point. Yes, the price was high; that’s gambling. They don’t give money to people who don’t bet. Trust me, I’ve tried that strategy and it doesn’t work. The alternative may have been to keep Myers and live with a very uncertain rotation for another year or two or more, essentially guaranteeing a non-contending team in 2013 and maybe again in 2014. People can quote all the Anibal Sanchez numbers they want; he was never coming to Kansas City. Anything less than Shields gave them an even worse shot at competing. So, when does that end? Dayton Moore decided it would end in 2013 and that he would worry about 2015 later. That might be the best move for the Royals right now. It sounds like hedging my bets, but it’s true that we won’t know until 2016 or so—maybe sooner if the Royals make the playoffs in 2013 or 2014.

I’ll leave you with a quote from one of my favorite movies, Rounders, that I think perfectly sums up the argument for why this trade might be a good one for the Royals (I say ‘might’). In it Mike McDermott, played by the awesomely badass Matt Damon, is torn between going for a big score in a poker game or playing it safe and walking away:

“I told Worm you can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle.” (He pauses for dramatic effect as he’s nearly out the door)

“But you can’t win much either.”

James Shields. Photo Credit: Tim Heitman – USA Today

The Royals and Rays put themselves into the spotlight today after their Sunday night seven-player trade with Wil Myers and James Shields as the principle players involved. Everyone was talking about it. National writers, local writers, people on Twitter and Facebook. All of baseball. Reactions have ranged from apoplectic to ecstatic to hyperbolic. Some have doubled down on their dislike, some have started to accept the deal.

I’m honestly still sorting it out for myself.

To me, the trade hinges on two questions – 1) Is Wil Myers for real? and 2) Are the Royals actually close?

If both are true, then both teams come out strong in the trade, but in different ways. The Rays get to re-load their farm system with players with gobs of service time left who should contribute. The Royals get an honest-to-God #1 starter who can take the mound on opening day and who could, if it comes to it, start a deciding game at the end of the year.

If 1 is true and 2 is not, the Royals lose. Big time. Wil Myers, as Rany Jazayerli pointed out, had the most homers in the high minor leagues by a 21-year-old since 1963. While doing so, he also hit .300 and walked at an acceptable rate. Yes, he struck out a lot, but it was a conscious decision to get more power and production at the expense of some contact. Myers has been regarded as a great judge of the strike zone who’s almost too picky, so he got more aggressive and homered 37 times last year. Many thought he could be a 25-30 homer guy in the majors and had the ability to hit for average as well. That’s a great player (although it seems a lot more skeptics have crept out of the woodwork in the last 24 hours). If the Royals aren’t that close, then they just tossed away a potential All-Star for a shot at 81 wins. Remember, this was a 72 win team in 2012, so to get to the 88 wins that won the AL Central last year, they have to come up with 16 more than last year. I’m not sure that Shields does that.

Ho hum. More awards. (Photo: Minda Haas)

If 1 isn’t true but 2 is, the Royals win. I’m a believer in Myers, but can’t deny that I don’t know how he’ll hit major league pitching because he’s never faced major league pitching. While I don’t think it’s fair to say “well he’s just a prospect” because he’s not just ANY prospect. He was the Minor League Player of the Year. He’s hit at every level. But let’s say he flounders, or he only ends up in the .280 range with 15 homers per year. That’s still a player of value, but not a middle of the order hitter. Tropicana Field isn’t a homer-friendly park, so maybe that costs him five homers a year. If the Royals turn out to be one big pitcher away, things break the right way and they make the playoffs, most would consider it worth it after the long-term drought.

If neither are true, then it’s a wash. Everyone got up in arms over nothing.

On the surface then, both teams got quality in return and I think the Royals gave up more quality and quality players in a situation more friendly for their new teams. If Wil Myers struggles in 2013, the Rays have him for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and (if they’re smart) 2019 and he can turn it around at any point there. The Royals have basically two years to get their value out of this trade. Shields is good, but he can’t do it alone.

Of course, the trade isn’t just Shields and Myers. The Royals shipped off their top prospect in Myers, a top pitching prospect in Jake Odorizzi, and a pitcher who twice was their top overall prospect in Mike Montgomery (along with Burlington third baseman Patrick Leonard) and got a speculative Wade Davis back, who they say they’ll put in the rotation. Odorizzi looked great in Wilmington and hit some rough patches in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, but generally, he’s regarded as a middle rotation pitcher, which can have value, especially when he’s playing at the league minimum (or close) for three years. Montgomery gives the Rays immense upside to play with. He’s the lottery ticket. If he figures out his command, the Rays have a good left-handed arm at their disposal. They’ve turned out a lot of great pitching lately (which is what puts them in the position to trade Shields and Davis in the first place) and their philosophy is more in line with Montgomery’s throwing program as well.

That feels like a lot, and I think is what drove much of the “worst trade ever” discussion.

But it’s still not a great trade. I’ve said before that the Royals had options. They were in on Ryan Dempster, who has had success just as Shields has. They added payroll that bumped them up to an estimated $84 million, well over their reported $70 million cap. Why not sign another starter out there, even overpaying a bit, to allow yourself to keep Myers. I’d rather the Royals pay too much money than with too many prospects. When you consider that Shields only has two years left on his deal and is into his thirties, while the Rays get the full extent of their new acquisitions’ playing time (save a couple weeks of Odorizzi), and it’s troubling. This is the affordable talent the Royals were after when rebuilding the farm system.

Jeff Francoeur is going to be under heavy scrutiny after Wil Myers was traded. Photo Credit: Kim Klement – USA Today

Sure, the Royals could challenge for the playoffs, but there are so many factors in play. They have about two years to do so, unless a prospect really develops quickly. They’ll have to replace Jeff Francoeur in 2014 and the farm system’s next best outfield prospects are still in the lower levels (Bubba Starling and Jorge Bonifacio). They’ll have to roll the dice on a free agent or make another trade to replace Francoeur or hand it over to David Lough, who they’ve never seen to trust, or move Cain over from center field to play him in right with Jarrod Dyson in center. Those options aren’t ideal and create some question marks. The Royals second base situation is still murky. The other starters in the rotation have to be good as well. If Jeremy Guthrie turns into an average pitcher like he’s usually been or gets worse, if Ervin Santana gets hurt or doesn’t regain form, if Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar continue to stink or Luis Mendoza turns back into a pumpkin, it won’t matter who’s at the top of the rotation. The Royals are also counting on Wade Davis to be a capable starter, when he found great success out of the bullpen last year after lackluster results as a starter.

The Royals also have to avoid significant injuries, regression from Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, continued struggles from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Salvador Perez has to stay healthy. And the defense has to be much more efficient (Rany cited a measurement that the Rays rated much better than the Royals at actually converting plays into outs). Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino can’t suffer setbacks and had better be strong when they return after Tommy John surgery.

That’s a lot of things that have to go right for the Royals. It’s a lot of things that have to go wrong, too. They’ll probably land in the middle somewhere, which just doesn’t feel like it’ll be enough.

But 2014, maybe that’s the good year. The Royals make a jump from 72 wins to 84 or so in 2013, then build off of that success in 2014. If that’s the case, they have to be in front or close by mid-season, or else Shields is a candidate to get flipped for more prospects. The Royals would be back where they’d started, but without Myers, without Shields, without Francoeur and two years farther into Hosmer and Moustakas’s service time. In that scenario, the Royals had better hope that Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura are ready because they’ll be the best chances for pitching success out of the system.

It’s a big gamble. It’s new territory. I could see the argument that we may value our own prospects more than necessary, but in the case of Myers and Odorizzi, they’re real prospects, regarded by many as real contributors in the future. It’s not overrating Orlando Calixte because most of the news on him will tout his abilities to point him out to everyone.

This trade improves the Royals rotation, but it doesn’t do enough. Even with Shields, the Royals are gambling on a lot to go right when so much has gone wrong for so long. The clock is ticking. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised.

Photos by Minda Haas

The Royals were clearly after James Shields during the winter meetings and when the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke, it opened up the need for the Royals to go after getting the deal done.

My initial reaction? To get Shields, who isn’t a true ace, and Davis, who was moved to the bullpen last year, still improves the Royals rotation in 2013, but at a steep price. Mike Montgomery hadn’t put it together in Triple A, but the velocity and left-handedness give him an opportunity for a new start in Tampa and they could reinvigorate him. He never seemed a fit for the Royals training approach, and, as Jason Parks said on the Kansas City Baseball Vault, the Rays like to throw. Montgomery is a long-toss guy, so that regimen fits him. Odorizzi in the deal is confusing, as he seemed like he had a shot to be in the rotation next year at some point.

Myers, though, is the key, and most think he can be a perennial star hitter. He’s not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but some have compared him to Ryan Braun with his ability to make contact and hit for power.

Obviously, this is a big deal and the Royals are going for it in 2013 and 2014, but my initial reaction – this team better make a wild card spot or win the division the next two years or it’s a big loss.

Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that #Royals may be at critical stage in decision on whether to trade Myers for an SP such as #Rays’ Shields.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2012

No further explanation of what “critical stage” means. No further explanation of if an offer had been made.

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

Wil Myers is a top five overall prospect. He’s a potential superstar in the middle of the order. Yes, he’s just a prospect, but that “just” is a pretty darn good prospect. That seems to be the main idea behind why some are fully in support – not just accepting, begrudgingly or otherwise – but actively hoping for.

Why the outrage? Well here’s my take. Myers, once he debuts, will have at least six seasons of team control. At least two of those will be very cost-effective seasons before he reaches arbitration. If the Royals time it right (waiting about two or three weeks), they can get five months of Wil Myers in 2013 and six full years after. Most scouts and evaluators see Myers as a middle of the order bat, capable of 25-30 homers. He’s always been considered one of the best at judging the strike zone in the minors, and, at 21 years old, could have the best sense of the strike zone on the team, second only to Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. He can hit for power and for average.

That’s a very good player.

True, he may never reach that potential. He may struggle early and take some time to develop as a big leaguer. That’s part of the risk and can’t be ignored. He struck out 140 times last year, well above his prior high in a season. He’s new to the outfield and may become an average big league right fielder at best. He’s not a speedster though he runs well. A good amount of his value is in his bat (though not quite like Billy Butler, and there’s still a chance Myers can be a good outfielder and steal 10+ bases a year).

Now James Shields is a very good pitcher. He’s been one of my favorites for a long time. I snag him every year in rotisserie baseball leagues because he throws a lot of innings, strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t walk too many. I’m not saying he isn’t good. He definitely is.

October 2, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But the problem is that Shields is under contract for only two more years.

The Royals won 72 games last year. James Shields doesn’t take them to 88. He may not take them to 84. He would improve the rotation, but it’s not as if the Royals were two games away and needed one more arm to push them over. They’re still working on the rebuilding and development side. Definitely on the upswing, but not there yet.

Some say it’s worth making the move if your team wins a World Series or gets into the playoffs even. While that would be amazing and I couldn’t be upset about it (that’d be crazy), again, it’s not as if Shields takes this team over and makes them challenge Detroit right away. There’s a chance, sure, but it’s still a flimsy proposition. Myers doesn’t make that difference up either, but here’s the key part of the move that I don’t like.

2013: Royals see improvement with James Shields in the rotation. Jeff Francoeur plays right field. Wil Myers (potentially) challenges for Rookie of the Year

2014: Jeff Francoeur is gone. James Shields sits atop an improved Royals rotation, a year older and 230 innings farther along. Wil Myers is (potentially) still rolling. The Royals have ______ in right field.

2015: Jeff Francoeur is gone. James Shields is gone. Wil Myers is gone.

The Royals give themselves a two year window to “win now” with Shields in that case, and maybe it works. Fantastic if so. But the alternatives aren’t too bad out on the market either. The Royals were connected to Anibal Sanchez again this afternoon, almost as strongly connected to him as they’ve been all offseason. If the Royals can take on Shields’s salary of an additional $9 million right now, why not take on Sanchez at $14 or 15 million? Adding Shields puts the Royals at an estimated $75 million. Is that so far from $80 million? Okay, then find a way to move Luke Hochevar or Bruce Chen and that’s $4.5 million right there – back at the same level you would have been with Shields.

Or sign Brandon McCarthy for $10 million over two years if he’s interested. You have the same improved rotation for a two year window, but keep Myers.

Or Shaun Marcum. Or Ryan Dempster. Or trade a smaller batch of prospects for Bud Norris. Or Jonathan Niese.

There are other options.

If the deal was to take on Matt Moore, the loss of Myers is okay, because Moore is signed through 2019 if all options are exercised. It’s feasible to say that Myers could be signed to an extension at some point that could put him in a similar position of buying out his first two years of free agency. The Royals also give themselves more shots to cash in on the trade. With Shields, they’d only have two seasons to make it happen. With Moore, they’d have more opportunities. And if the Rays don’t give him up? Fine. Don’t answer the phone when Andrew Friedman calls back.

The kicker, though, is that Bob Dutton and Jon Heyman both think that it would take MORE than just Wil Myers to get James Shields. There’s no idea of how much more, but to me, even the idea of more is getting absurd. Even more reason to pass.

There can be a tendency to overvalue prospects. I like Jason Adam. We’ve talked to him on the podcast often and he’s a good kid. But many other teams have a tall righty who throws 92-93 with good makeup and who projects as a #3 or #4, so making him untouchable is a bit silly. Every team has that live armed pitcher they hope can be a starter but may be a better back-end reliever. But we might overdo it on the Yordano Ventura hype. It happens. The curse of familiarity, maybe. We know the names, we follow their progress and it gets us thinking of better days. But they’re both top 10 prospects in the organization and they do have value.

But when a prospect is truly elite. When every expert and publication puts that player at the top of their prospect lists, when the stats and scouts agree, that player isn’t just a prospect anymore.

According to Jeff Passan, Royals officials are meeting right now to discuss the ideas. We’ll see how they decide.

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

So many trade rumors swirling around. So much trade talk flying everywhere. It’s hard to keep track of it all. It’s hard to think that the Royals will make it through the next month without sending their whole roster to Tampa, Seattle, or Oakland. It scares me a bit, as I’m always afraid of the lopsided trade that goes against the Royals.

For the most part, I feel like most of this talk is nonsense. I think the Royals are exploring all of these options, but I also think there’s really only one option that makes sense (of course this doesn’t preclude the Royals from making a move that makes no sense): Bill Butler for James Shields.

I came to think conclusion while trying to consider what would serve both teams best, and this is all I came up with. All the other scenarios just don’t add up. Wil Myers is too valuable for different reasons (potential value at the major league level and years of team control at a cheap price). Alex Gordon is also too valuable at 6-7 WAR unless Tampa is considering trading Matt Moore, which I don’t think they are. Mike Moustakas has no value to Tampa, and the prospects for Seattle either aren’t good enough for the Royals’ needs (a number one type starting pitcher) or aren’t ready yet (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker). It’s a matter of the three major compenents coming together: performance value, need, and contract.

Butler for Shields is the only combo that makes that trinity work because each team gets equal value for something they desperately need, and the contracts essentially even out. Shields put up a 4.3 WAR last season, which is really great for a pitcher. He’s good for around a 3.5-4 WAR easily. Butler put up a 3.2, his best ever, and is poised to repeat that performance, as he’s entering his prime hitting years. So, Shields may be a little more valuable using that metric, but I’d call it roughly a wash. I think that metric overvalues defensive contribution and baserunning and thus undervalues players like Butler who primarily DH and can’t run.

Obviously, the Royals need starting pitching, but more pointedly, they need ace-like starting pitching. Is Shields and “ace”? If not, he’s damn close. He’s gone over 200 innings every season since 2007. He’s had a xFIP from 3.24-3.87 since 2007. His K/9 rate has been over eight since 2010. His BB/9 is 2.35 and under since 2007.  And for those of you who like the old-school ERA, four of his six full seasons have been mid-threes or below.

On the other side of the coin, the Rays need a difference maker with the bat. Butler is most certainly that. His slash line last season was stellar, .313/.373/.510. His power numbers were up, 29 homeruns and an ISO of .197. Maybe most importantly, no one for Tampa with more than 400 PA had a higher wRC+ (weighted runs created in relation to league average). Butler’s wRC+ was 140, meaning he created 40% more runs than league average, which tied him with David Wright, Josh Hamilton, and Joe Mauer. That’s very good company to be in, and the Rays need that type of offense to compete in what is now a somewhat weakened AL East. Butler provides a consistent and ascending middle of the order hitter.

September 3, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

One of the big holdups I have with the Royals trading Myers is that he’s under cheap team control for a long time, while the player they get in return may not be. I’d hate to end up in a Brewers-Greinke situation in which we give up a potentially great player(s) with many years of team control for a good player we’re renting for a year or a year and a half. Butler for Shields doesn’t present this problem. Butler has one more year on his contract than Shields does, but for the Royals that shouldn’t make much of a difference. The Royals could keep Shields for 2013 and 2014 for roughly $21 million, with 2014 being a team option year at $12 million.* Butler is due $16 million over the next two seasons guaranteed, but has a team option for 2015 at $12.5 million. This makes Butler a little more valuable contract-wise, but it may make up for what may be seen as a little less value in performance. That said, neither is in the young and cheap phase of his career, but both seem to be worth the money they’re paid. With Butler and Luke Hochevar’s contracts off the payroll (I’ll pack Hoch’s bags for him), and with Bruce Chen, Jeff Francoeur, and Ervin Santana coming off next year, the Royals could afford to keep Shields for both years if they wanted to. And the Rays would save money trading for Butler since he costs less than Shields.

*These contract numbers are according to Baseball Reference, and I’m not sold that their numbers are completely legit. They may just be base salary, no incentives or anything. I’m not sure, but other sites have differing numbers.

The only question I really have is, why isn’t this getting done? What’s the hold up? I mean, either side (probably the Royals), may need to throw in some low-level prospects. Nothing too fancy, maybe someone like Kyle Smith or Jorge Bonifacio or Cheslor Cuthbert. Nothing so prized as Kyle Zimmer or Adalberto Mondesi. Both sides are winners in this scenario. It makes too much sense not to do it.

• Young Guns – Ethan Evans
• Royalman Report 9/18/11 – Decently Decent with Guest Mike McCartney
• Counting Chickens - Kevin Scobee
• Flash Gordon – Gage Matthews
• Royals Free Kila Ka’aihue - Michael Engel
• Presence of Pitching - Brett Christie
• Apologizing to Melky Cabrera - Michael Engel
• Market Fresh: James Shields – Michael Engel
• Jeff Francoeur Has 20/20 Vision - Michael Engel
• Hit Parade – Ryan Wood