But let us pause and remember those Royals who left the organization over the winter with a little “Where are they now?” examination.

The Trade

Myers at the plate. (Photo: Minda Haas)

One of the biggest moves of the MLB offseason was the Royals trade of Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and (eventually) Elliot Johnson. It’s natural to look wistfully at Durham to see how the Royals prospects are faring.

Wil Myers

I’m sure there’s a little part of every Royals fan who was hoping that Myers would flop outside of the Royals organization. Just a little. So far, however, that’s not the case. The Rays are playing service time games and stashing him in Triple A, where Myers is, understandably, raking.

He’ll probably make it to the big leagues in June.

Of course he wasn’t the only part of the trade. The Royals also sent Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery (as well as Patrick Leonard) to Tampa.

Mike Montgomery

Montgomery gave up four runs in three innings during spring training and, so far, hasn’t been able to tap back into the talent that made him a top pitching prospect as recently as 2011. He was placed on the seven day disabled list on April 21 after making just one start for Durham.

Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi is still able to strike batters out, but he’s still averaging less than six innings a start due to more pitch count questions. He’s striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings so far, which bodes well for some success. If he becomes a bit more efficient he’ll be leaning more towards the #2/#3 starter ceiling rather than his #4 safe zone.

Patrick Leonard

Things haven’t gone as well for Leonard since the trade. He showed good power and on base ability with the Burlington Royals in the Appalachian League last year, but in Low A Bowling Green, he’s striking out a quarter of the time but with no power to show for it. He’s still just 20 years old and there’s time to grow, so if I’m a Tampa fan, I’m not worried, but from a Royals fan perspective, I’m not sweating losing his bat.

The main components to this are projecting the WAR values from each player for the contracts/player control time that was traded.  Then coming up with a discount rate, that would approximate the win inflation over the time period, to make sure wins this year are worth more than subsequent years.  The rest of it is just simple math.  As you can see I am not including Elliot Johnson, Mike Montgomery, or Patrick Leonardas I believe there value to the teams is either zero or close enough to zero that I can ignore

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore (left to right), newly acquired pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis, and manager Ned Yoast pose for photos after the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

them.  I put James Shields down for two seasons similar to last year at 4 WAR each, and then zero from then on out since his contract will end.  Then I projected Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and played with what Wade Davis would have to do to make the trade somewhat even.  You can quibble a lot with these projections, but whatever they are, Davis is going to have to be pretty good to make this trade valuable for the Royals.  TWins are a sum of all WAR for the year for that side of the trade (Shields + Davis or Myers + Odorizzi), and DWins use the discount rate to present value the wins in terms of now.  As I go on I will be discussing how to make a model like this better since this one is pretty simple.

First, the projections need to be better.  I am pretty comfortable with Shields, but the others are much harder to project.  My preference would be to crowd source these win values to get expectations from multiple fan bases both biased and unbiased, but that would require me having a significant amount more power in the blogosphere.  In lieu of that I will probably need to go look at scouting expectations and then use aging curves for the three players who are younger and going to be around for a while.  Once you have those it is just a matter of setting a discount rate.  A win this year is more valuable than a win next year, and though you could argue for specific times and specific teams this could change a lot, I think this is still a good assumption.  How to set the actual discount rate could go several ways though.

You could try and set a league wide discount rate using win inflation, meaning look at what team payrolls are per WAR year over year recently, and then project an inflation rate from there.  This could be a good way to set the rate, but it is not what I was thinking.  You could also do this on a team by team basis since the Tampa Bay way won’t allow it to grow payroll at the same rate as the Dodgers or Yankees.  Personally, I would prefer to set inflation rates separately for the players.  The model above assumes one discount rate, consistent with a league-wide win inflation rate, but I think each player’s risk profile might give better results.  That way we could use what we know about the players to set the rate.  Prospects are riskier, so their discount rate should be higher than established big leaguers (we are more confident in what James Shields will be than the other three so his discount rate should be lower).  Also, pitchers should probably have a higher discount rate than position players due to higher injury risk and year to year variation.  Once you have done all this, a good estimate of each trading team’s expected present value of wins should be formulated, and then you move on to money.

One team or the other (or for multi-team trades you could compare more) is going to have an edge in WAR expectancy, but that is not the only factor.  Payroll should be used as well.  In the case of this trade the Royals have a lower win expectancy and took on more payroll with Shields’ contract, which is why most stat heads gave the clear victory to the Rays on the trade.  Anyway, that is an introduction to the method I would like to develop.  If you like it or have any questions or modifications I should consider let me know.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

In 2012, Odorizzi started the season in Double-A and finished it with two starts in the big leagues. Many clamored for his promotion when he started for the US in the Futures Game, but those fans had to wait until September.

Odorizzi has a nice, easy delivery, which makes his fastball look faster. He is still refining his offspeed pitches.

He started the season back with NW Arkansas, and made just seven starts (3.32 ERA), before being promoted to Triple-A. With Omaha, he was 11-3 with a 2.93 ERA over 19 games (18 starts). He then struggled a bit in his big league debut.

The biggest problem for Odorizzi is the high pitch counts. I saw it in 2011 when he was with Wilmington. He seems to fall in love with the strikeout, but needs more than three pitches to put the hitters away. He also tries to be too fine with his pitches, which leads to walks (40 in Omaha and four in 7.1 big league innings).

I like Odorizzi and I think he could be great if he just attacks hitters instead of trying for the strikeout. It’s hard to think of him as a top three rotation piece when he has yet to throw 150 innings in a season in the minors. Over his final ten regular season starts with Omaha, he threw seven innings just three times.

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star ranks Odorizzi as the Royals fourth best prospect. MLB.com has him coming in at number three. Odorizzi should get a shot at a spot in the Royals rotation in spring training. However with the moves the team has already made, it is more likely he will start the season back in Triple-A.

I’d like to look more closely at Odorizzi because he is right on the cusp of not only being in the major leagues but reaching his potential as well, which is limited but not unimpressive.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi follows through with a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE

Let us begin with his very, very brief stint with the big league club last year. During that time, he pitched seven innings, gave up four earned runs, allowed eight hits, four walks, and struck out four. Not much to be learned from those numbers, but if you remember, he had some control issues and gave up a few hits. But let’s say the extremely limited sample size doesn’t allow us to take anything significant from the statistical data itself.

To find substantial data, I dug into his minor league numbers. They were pretty good if somewhat misleading. His AAA ERA, 2.93, looks great, but if you probe a little deeper you see a 4.19 FIP. You also see a pretty high BB/9 rate, 3.35 and a high LOB% as well 81.3 percent. The worry I had for Odorizzi last year was his high number of hits and walks allowed. Essentially, he was allowing runners on base and then getting out of tough jams. It’s good he was getting out of jams; it’s not good that hitters were reaching base so much.

His H/9 to me hint at a point of concern, a question really. Does Odorizzi miss enough bats? It’s been stated that he doesn’t have electric stuff, and that’s all that’s going to keep him from being a true ace. In the majors an inability to miss bats, relegates a pitcher to 4-5 starter range, and the Royals really don’t need anymore 4-5 starters. In his two starts at the end of the season, Odorizzi induced a swinging strike 6.6 percent of the time (small sample size I know). For comparison, Duffy induced a swinging strike 9.3 percent of the time last year. Justin Verlander has done so at a 9.8 percent clip over his career. Odorizzi’s looks low compared to those two, but keep in mind it was his first stint in the majors and the sample size is small. In Duffy’s first season, he got swinging strikes only 7.7 percent of the time.

Odorizzi has this pattern, you see. He gets a taste of a level, struggles on that level, and then comes back and dominates the next season. At least, that’s what he did with AA (I don’t know if you can call it a pattern if it only happened once). He struggled at Northwest Arkansas in his last seven starts of 2011, came back in 2012 and destroyed Texas League hitters to the tune of 11.13 K/9 and a 2.20 FIP. That’s incredible, especially considering the league.

I think Odorizzi will end up back in AAA. What I’m looking for is his bounce back. I’m looking to see if some of the problems that were covered up in AAA last season will be resolved this season. Will he get his strikeout rate back up (it dipped to 7.38 K/9 at AAA)? Will he get his walks and hits allowed down? This should allow him to fix one of his other problems from AAA last year, short outings. He had so many people on base, his pitch counts sored, and he often didn’t make it past five innings.

If Odorizzi starts hot in Omaha, I’d love to see him get a chance in late May or early June. He’s a smart, poised young pitcher. A little refinement, and the Royals could have the first two pieces of their in-house pitching solution in place (Duffy and Odorizzi).

David Glass: All About Average. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve all seen the comments from David Glass. The Royals position players and bullpen stack up with anyone in the division. It’s time to open up the checkbook and buy some quality starting pitching. Finally.

But then comes the rain on our parade. Glass says we can make a run at things with a pair of threes. That’s a heck of a bluff in poker…but in baseball? The other players at the table can see our cards. Can a pair of threes take us to the postseason? Do we even know what a “number three” starter really is?? Is there a definition? I’m going to define a “number three” and see where that might leave the pitching rotation in 2013.

To get really basic, a starting rotation is made up of five pitchers. Looking at it that way…you figure, ideally, you have two guys who are above league average (your numbers 1 and 2) and two guys who are probably below average (numbers 4 and 5). That leaves us with the third spot, sitting right in the middle of the rotation, the barrier between below average and above average. A number three pitcher is basically league average. That’s simple enough.

What is average?

Looking at it from a team aspect, the American League is made up of 14 teams with starting pitcher WAR that ranges from 19.3 (Detroit) all the way down to 2.4 (Minnesota). The Royals starting pitching, through Tuesday’s games, sits at 7.3, which is better than three other AL teams – the Blue Jays, the Indians, and the Twins (luckily, two of those teams are in our division).

The average AL starting rotation has a WAR of 9.65. Looking at average from that perspective, the league is split right down the middle with seven above and below average teams. The Royals are below average and out of contention. Six teams with above average rotations are still in the playoff hunt.

The one above average team not anywhere close to the postseason is Boston, with a 10.2 WAR. A couple of teams who are slightly below the mark are the Orioles at 9.5 and the Angels with a 9.3 (they rank 8 and 9, just behind Boston). Simply put, above average seems like the way to go.

I next looked at individual pitchers in my hunt to define that number three guy. I decided to include starting pitchers from both the AL and NL, and put a minimum of 100 innings pitched on my query. Fangraphs came back with 128 starting pitchers on a total of five pages.

That works out pretty well, with the number of pages being equal to number of spots in a rotation. I thought the best way to figure out what makes up an average pitcher in the big leagues would be to jump to page three. What I found was a group of pitchers who ranged from 2.3 to 1.6 WAR. Then I checked pages two and four, making sure to include everyone in the 2.3 through 1.6 range, with the results listed below.

The average WAR of the 35 pitchers listed above is 1.98. Taking that number and multiplying by 5, we get a total of 9.9, which is pretty close to where we started earlier with an average rotation WAR of 9.65 (remember with the team WAR, we only included AL teams).

We can safely say the average major league starting pitcher with at least 100 innings has a WAR of about 2. I think it’s safe to include all of the above guys, taking into account that guys will have up or down seasons.

Is Guthrie an ordinary average guy? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals have one guy at the low end of our scale – Jeremy Guthrie, with a 1.6 WAR in 78 innings since coming to KC (the number is lower if you figure in his time with the Rockies). The current rotation of Guthrie, Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Will Smith have a combined WAR of 6.2.

David Glass wants to shove his chips into the middle of the table with a pair of threes. Should he? Or should he fold and see what the next hand brings?

If you have read anything else I’ve written at this site, you know I am a proponent of cutting Luke Hochevar loose. This is my experiment, so bye-bye Luke.

We appear to be stuck with Bruce Chen (under contract through 2013), so we’ll leave him in the mix. Dayton Moore has expressed interest in retaining Guthrie. I’m still not nuts about the idea (depending on the contract), but he’s definitely had some nice success in KC. Some think he’s phenomenal, and he has looked good. I personally believe he’s pretty average (the Fangraphs WAR numbers agree), but hey, this team is all about average.

A big question with Guthrie, though: does he count towards our pair of threes? We’ll assume, given our owner’s history, that Guthrie is in fact one of our signings, giving us one more addition.

At this point we’ve got Guthrie and Chen for a combined WAR of 3. Let’s say our remaining addition brings a 2 WAR to town. That’s three pitchers at a combined WAR of 5, with two falling into our previously determined range of being average (Guthrie with his 1.6, and our Free Agent with a 2).

We can safely assume the rest of the rotation will be rounded out with two of the following: Smith, Mendoza, or Jake Odorizzi.

Jake’s an unknown at this point, but has more upside than anyone in the rotation. Given his potential, let’s

KC’s secret weapon? Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

plug him in as our number four and round things out with either of the other guys (I don’t really care which one), and assign the last two rotation spots a WAR value of 2.5 (combined). That puts us at 7.5, right about where we are right now.

Ok, so I took the scenic route to my point. What I’m saying is this: two average guys won’t do it.

If we upgrade from two to three average guys, each with a WAR of 2, and mix in two below average guys (let’s give them a each a 1.5), we’d have a total WAR of 9, which is absolutely better, still below average, but in the ballpark.

Sure, guys can pitch over or under (see Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren) their general skill level. Dan Haren is a guy, by the way, I think the Royals should be very interested in this winter. A possible “buy low” candidate who could come out firing in 2013.

So who knows? Maybe a couple of those 2 WAR guys put up better numbers and nudge our rotation to a WAR of 10 or 11. If that happens, we can absolutely hang tough in the Central. If Odorizzi hits the ground running, that certainly improves our chances.  Remember though, in this scenario of a WAR between 9 and 11, I upgraded to THREE average pitchers…not just a pair. Even then it’s no sure bet.

So, Mr. Glass, if the Royals are going to have a real chance…I’d recommend you have at least three of a kind heading into 2013. And you might want to consider setting your sights on something a little more “above average” before you think about going all in.

Feb 29, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi (49) poses for a picture during the Royals photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

The sixth inning started with Odorizzi at 72 pitches. He retired Shin-Soo Choo, the only batter to get a hit off of him to that point, but then Jason Kipnis (Odorizzi’s first career strikeout victim in the first) tripled. Asdrubal Cabrera singled up the middle to bring in Kipnis, then Carlos Santana hit the first of two homers on the day. Dave Eiland came out to settle him down, but after a Michael Brantley single,  the Royals pulled him from the game.

His final line was 5.1 innings with six hits, one walk and three hits allowed. He struck out three. Of his 87 pitches, 55 were strikes. Eight of the outs he recorded were fly balls while four were on the ground.

It’s good to get the start out of the way, though. He held his own.

The rest of the pitching staff, for the most part, didn’t.

The Indians scored five times in the seventh and seven more in the ninth. In the seventh, Everett Teaford, Tommy Hottovy and Vin Mazzaro combined to walk four batters and allowed four hits. Adam Moore (who had homered in his first at bat as a Royal earlier) had a throwing error that allowed Choo to score on a stolen base attempt. Another run scored on a Jeff Francoeur throwing error.

Jeremy Jeffress allowed most of the runs in the ninth. Brantley doubled to lead off the inning and Casey Kotchman grounded out to move him to third. Then Jeffress walked Jack Hannahan, gave up a hit to Ezequiel Carrera, walked Lou Marson, then walked Choo with the bases loaded. A ground out scored Carrera, then a single scorEd Marson. Louis Coleman came in to relieve Jeffress and gave up the second of Santana’s two homers.

With the loss, the Royals are officially eliminated from winning the division (they’d have had to go undefeated the rest of the year and have the White Sox lose every game just to get a tiebreaker with Chicago). It was also their 82nd loss of the season, ensuring that they can’t reach .500 this year.

They still have a chance to finish the year with the most wins since Dayton Moore became general manager. In 2008, the Royals won 75 games. By going 6-4 in the final stretch of the year, they could surpass that. In a season where the opening day center fielder and franchise catcher missed half the year due to injury and the key offseason acquisition was designated for assignment, I suppose that has to count for progress.

But thank goodness that Jake Odorizzi is finally here. Expect good things to come.

After seven innings, Paul Splittorff came out of the game having given up five runs (three earned) and took the loss. He would make 391 more starts and another 36 relief appearances en route to the Royals Hall of Fame.

Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch in his Triple A debut. Photo: Minda Haas – mindahaas.net

Today, Jake Odorizzi makes his major league debut, a much-anticipated event by Royals fans. Odorizzi represents more hope for a homegrown starting rotation that can lead the franchise back to the playoffs. It’s comparable to Danny Duffy‘s debut from May 2011 when he went four innings against the Rangers. There was plenty of buzz then, just as there is now for Odorizzi. When the time comes for Mike Montgomery to finally make it up here, he’ll generate a lot of interest as well (and the same can be said for John Lamb, Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura and others).

The standard by which Royals debut starts should be judged is that of Steve Busby. On September 8, 1972, Busby pitched a complete game in his major league debut, striking out seven and securing the win.

Other starting debuts haven’t been as solid. Just this year, Will Smith and Ryan Verdugo made their major league debuts and both were pulled early from the start. Smith was tossed into Yankee Stadium and gave up three homers in 3.1 innings. He’s turned it around and given the Royals some strong outings since. Verdugo was rocked for six runs in 1.2 innings by the Mariners on July 17. He was left off the active roster when it expanded in September.

Even worse than Verdugo’s start was Dan Reichart’s debut (there’s a fun name from the past). In 1.2 innings on July 16, 1999, Reichert gave up seven runs. An inauspicious beginning to a season in which he’d finish with a 9.08 ERA (and to a career that would end with a 5.55 ERA). Another pitcher who was supposed to anchor a Royals rotation was Jim Pittsley. His major league debut was similar to Will Smith‘s – 3.1 innings, five runs allowed and three homers on the road. His debut was exactly 17 years before Smith’s too (May 23, 1995).

Sometimes, though, even good debuts don’t always indicate impending success. Jimmy Gobble debuted with six shutout innings on August 3, 2003 (a win that put the Royals up by two games in the AL Central at that point). He struggled for the next few seasons before looking like an effective reliever in 2007. Then he imploded and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2009. Kyle Snyder threw five innings and gave up only one run on May 1, 2003. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness through his career but had an effective season in relief for the Red Sox in 2007. J.P. Howell was drafted in the first round in 2004, started 2005 in High A  but by June 11 of that year, he was making his debut and going five innings, striking out eight in a victory. He started 2006 in Triple A and then was traded for Joey Gathright.

Of course, the fun is in looking back at players that we know have found success and seeing how they performed at the highest level for the first time.

Mark Gubicza? His first start was a good one – six innings and only one run allowed in 1984. Kevin Appier‘s first start in the big leagues wasn’t strong in 1989 (5.1 IP and four runs allowed), but we know that he didn’t let that hold him back once the 1990s started and he was dominant in the first half of the decade.

Then there’s Zack Greinke. At 20 years old on May 22, 2004, he took on Oakland, held them to two runs over five innings and, well, that’s about it. The game went into extra innings and he didn’t factor into the decision. Since, he left the game, moved to the bullpen, won the Cy Young and has since been traded twice. (For the record, Bret Saberhagen‘s major league debut came in relief of Splittorff in 1984. He threw 4.2 scoreless innings a week before his 20th birthday.)

So what’s in store for Odorizzi? We’ll learn that tomorrow. Ned Yost has stated that the result isn’t as important as the experience, that Odorizzi just needs to get the game out of the way and battle at this level. It won’t make or break his career one way or another. He was a top pitching prospect when the year started and he’ll retain that status going into next year. But most importantly, the wait is over.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

The Royals were originally thinking of having him in the bullpen and possibly using him that way but at this point, he’s unlikely to do that unless the plan changes. Luis Mendoza was scheduled to pitch tonight but due to strep throat he missed his turn and Bruce Chen went in his place. Ned Yost told the media before Wednesday’s game that it would then be Jeremy Guthrie Thursday and Mendoza Friday if he’s feeling well. Will Smith would pitch Saturday and then Sunday would turn into Odorizzi’s day.

Of course plans can change.

There was a bit of curiosity in the timing, though, as Yost suggested that he didn’t want to throw Odorizzi against the Tigers or White Sox. Instead, his start would come against Cleveland. It’s not clear if he just doesn’t want to put too much pressure on Odorizzi. Jeff Parker made the point that at this time of year, there’s at least some value in seeing Odorizzi against a playoff contender rather than a last place team. It’s just an odd decision.

Will Smith made his debut in Yankee Stadium. It went poorly, but there wasn’t any hesitation to put him in that situation. Odorizzi’s last start was against Reno when he got shelled for eight runs and gave up four homers. Perhaps sending him out against the Indians is Ned’s way of easing him him. It would be nice to see how he reacts to a playoff-contending team’s lineup though.

Odorizzi would still have enough time to make another start this year as well. A few extra innings would help the Royals evaluate him at this level before waiting until next spring training to get a longer look. To me, that’s a good thing. They may keep him on an innings limit if he does make two starts in September, though nobody has said that would be the case. It’s possible they’d be concerned about overdoing it. After two playoff starts added 10.2 innings, Odorizzi has exceeded his previous season high in innings of 147 from last season (with 156 so far in 2012). Ten more innings with the Royals wouldn’t be a huge jump to me.

If nothing else, though, Odorizzi is on a path to face his first big league hitter at Kauffman Stadium. It’s been a long wait.

Jake Odorizzi and Adam Moore (Photo: Minda Haas)

All but Odorizzi had previously been added to the 40 man roster. The Royals purchased Odorizzi’s contract in order to promote him. He was required to be added at some point this winter anyway in order to avoid the Rule 5 draft.

Absent on this list is Wil Myers, the Minor League Player of the Year. This was expected. Myers doesn’t need to be protected to avoid selection by other teams in the Rule 5 draft and the Royals have multiple players they want to add in the offseason to protect. Robert Ford reported that the Royals have told him they want to protect 10-12 players but have only 3-5 spots with which to do it. Sam Mellinger predicts he’ll be called up in April next year after he’s waited long enough to gain the Royals an extra year of service time. That’s usually about a two week wait.

The plan with Odorizzi is to use him out of the bullpen for now, but there’s an idea to start him against Cleveland next weekend.

In 25 starts (and a 26th game where he’d thrown 6.2 innings after a two inning start by Everett Teaford) between Omaha and Northwest Arkansas, Odorizzi threw 145.1 innings, striking out 135 batters and walking 50 with an ERA of 3.03. He’d also pitched twice in the PCL playoffs, accumulating another 10.2 innings and 10 strikeouts, though he had an awful game in Reno, giving up eight earned runs and four homers.

The Royals have already seen Adcock, Hottovy and Falu. The new guy in town is Adam Moore, who made his major league debut with the Mariners in 2009 and has a career .526 OPS. They’ll play him here and there to get a look at him. Manny Pina is already up and has yet to make it into a game. Adcock had 30.1 innings in ten games in Kansas City for a 2.67 ERA. He made two starts. Hottovy worked out of the bullpen, getting in 6.2 innings and giving up three earned runs. Falu was impressive in his time in the big leagues. The longtime organizational soldier hit .321/.333/.434 in 56 plate appearances with most coming in May.

Four players on the 40 man roster who could be called up, but weren’t today, are Clint Robinson and Ryan Verdugo, who had brief stints in the big leagues earlier this year and Derrick Robinson and Noel Arguelles who haven’t made major league debuts yet. Verdugo and the Robinsons could still make their way up, but Arguelles had a 6.41 ERA in Double A so he would be a shocker to see any time this year. He’s on the 40 man due to signing a major league contract when he defected from Cuba.

The Odorizzi promotion leaves the Royals with 39 spots on their 40 man roster.

There isn’t a whole lot to write about the game. The Aces came out swinging and Omaha collected just three hits. They couldn’t capitalize on Reno starter Trevor Bauer‘s wildness (five walks). The Storm Chasers actually scored first, on an RBI ground out in the 2nd inning.

It all went downhill from there.

To say it was a bad night for Jake Odorizzi would be an understatement. He was thrashed for nine runs (eight earned) on nine hits over just 3.2 innings. He allowed four homeruns.

Only reliever Blaine Hardy was unscored upon, as he pitched 2.1 scoreless innings of relief. He walked just one while striking out four.

The Storm Chasers will look to rebound Wednesday night, as they play Game 2 of the PCL Finals in Reno. Ryan Verdugo will get the start for Omaha against Daniel Cabrera, who used to pitch in the big leagues (and was once considered a key piece in Baltimore).

April 10, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) loses his bat during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Late August is the hardest time to be a Royals fan. They’re out of any type of race other than a race for top draft picks in 2013.

They’re not calling up any young prospects of the future for at least a few days and maybe not even then. They’re stuck in this state of mediocre baseball and near hopelessness.

By now, we pretty clearly have a sense of who the 2012 Royals are: an extremely inconsistent team with players still learning what it takes to be successful at the major league level. Eric Hosmer has disappointed to a level I’ve never seen before when we consider expectations (granted I’m only 26). Mike Moustakas has been decent but not jaw dropping. He continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, and watching him swing and miss at the same pitches over and over again makes me want to throw objects at a television … my television to be specific.

I point to Hosmer and Moustakas only because they are the poster children for this new wave of talent meant to push the Royals back to prominence. But of course they are not the sole holders of blame. Starting pitching has been terrible (as most thought it would be). Jeff Francoeur has been atrocious (as many thought he probably would be). And some of the moves made by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore have been awful (as anyone with brain cells knew they would be).

Now, we’re stuck in this purgatory, a holding pattern, and it feels like eating plain bread. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Wil Myers. Nobody knows what Moore will do with Jake Odorizzi. Right now, all we have are dreams of the future, and those dreams are opaque at best.

That’s why I hate late August for the Royals. When we get to September, we can at least sink into the warm delusion of our strong Septembers. Last season the Royals went 15-10 with what many considered to be a glimpse into their lineup of the future. Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Hosmer, and Moustakas were all in the majors, and the Royals started winning. Fans could then delude themselves into thinking that this was proof of future success. I want that delusion to get here already. Much like in the movie Inception, I need the dream world because it’s much better than the real world (or something like that … I don’t know that movie was super confusing).

The only pieces of the puzzle left are Myers, Odorizzi, and a pitcher to be named. Maybe that pitcher will be John Lamb or Yordano Ventura or Kyle Smith or Kyle Zimmer. Who knows? Maybe it will be a free agent (I doubt it). But for now, we’re left only to stew in this place of wonderlessness.

You see, wonder is what drives the passion of Royals fans. We wonder what the future will bring (I’m using “wonder” as a double entendre). We look at our future with a sense of wonder. We look at players like Myers and Odorizzi with a sense of wonder. It’s what keeps us going as fans. If we can’t wonder, morale drops like Francoeur’s batting average after facing a righty for one game.

The wonder is off both Hosmer and Moustakas. I’m not saying they won’t be great players. They might be, and if they do become great players it will be wonderful. But it won’t be the same thing we feel when everything is possibility, as it is with Myers and Odorizzi, as it is with next season.

I need September to get here. I need to see the future Royals so I can replace the sense of stuckness I feel now with a sense of wonder.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

They also rode the arm of Jake Odorizzi, who improved to 10-2 in Triple-A. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks over seven innings.

If you’re interested in checking out the Storm Chasers celebration on Saturday night, check out Minda Haas’ site Royal Blues for photos.

NW Arkansas lost the first game of their doubleheader in Frisco, 3-0. The Naturals collected just two hits.

Noel Arguelles waited three days to make his next start (after two rainouts). He took the loss, as he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over five innings. He struck out six.

The Naturals also lost the second game, 3-1. They actually out-hit Frisco 6-4, but went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They had a chance to win the game (or at least tie it) in the top of the 7th inning. They had the bases loaded and one run already in, but Carlo Testa grounded out to end the game.

Whit Merrifield went 2-for-4 with a triple. Justin Marks took the loss, as he allowed all three runs on four hits and a walk over four innings.

Wilmington couldn’t complete the sweep over Lynchburg, as they lost 3-2. The Blue Rocks scored both of their runs in the first inning. Three of their four hits came in that first inning.

With the game tied at 2-2 in the top of the 9th inning, Braeden Schlehuber reached on a fielding error in center field and moved all the way to third base. He came around to score when the Blue Rocks middle infielders tried to turn a double play (but couldn’t).

The Blue Rocks had the tying run on third base with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, but Murray Watts flied out to end the game (he ended up 2-for-4).

The Wilmington loss dropped them to just 2.5 games ahead of both the Hillcats and Frederick. The Blue Rocks now head to Frederick for five games and then to Lynchburg for three more games.

Kane County led 4-3 heading into the 8th inning, but lost 7-4 in Burlington. The Bees scored four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning aided by three singles, three walks, and a wild pitch.

Alex Llanos went 3-for-4 and Chris Elder went 2-for-4 with two RBIs in the loss.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-4 loss in Greenville.

The Nationals were 69-93 in 2010. They were 80-81 last year. Today, they have the best record in the big leagues and, not coincidentally, their starting pitching has given up the least amount of runs in the league. Similarly, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh are all in the top ten among starting rotations in runs allowed per game and are in the playoff hunt.

The Royals scored more runs in 2000 than any other Royals team in franchise history. Their 879 runs scored eclipsed the old record of 856 runs set in – wouldn’t you know it?  - 1999. In those two seasons, they scored 1735 runs. They won 141 games and lost 192. The offense was around the top third in all of baseball, but the pitching staffs gave up the second most runs in the majors in 1999 and the third most in 2000. A strong offense can’t erase awful pitching.

Now, the Royals find themselves with a lineup that feels like it should be able to produce runs over the long-term (or at least, that’s what the scouts say), but the key to success will be pitching, specifically starting pitching.

That’s as true today as it was on the last day of the season in 2011 as it was on the first day that pitchers and catchers reported. The Royals entered 2012 needing pitching and in the middle of August, they still need starting pitching. Injuries have hurt. If all goes well with recovery, they should see Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino return next July or so, but their contributions may only have an impact if he Royals can manage to piece together some winning months prior to the duo’s return.

The team’s relative inactivity in the offseason to add significant depth to a potential rotation gives me pause about hoping for significant upgrades in the rotation, although some may be on the Royals radar this winter. The Royals ideal situation is to develop pitching via the farm system as the Rays have done with James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson et al; like the Nationals have done with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler. Hopefully, the Royals go after some of the arms available in free agency or through trade because, in the meantime, while there are a number of strong performances in the minor leagues by pitchers who compose what could be the next wave of talent, most aren’t ready to make the jump yet.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Jake Odorizzi has performed well since his promotion to Omaha, allaying concerns that he might struggle early in a tougher league. Last year, he’d racked up 108 strikeouts in 78.1 innings for Wilmington, but became homer-prone in the Texas League and ended his 12 start stint in Northwest Arkansas with a 4.72 ERA. He started his 2012 season back in Double A, put in seven good starts and earned a promotion.

Since then, he’s been putting up good numbers in Omaha, capped off by an outing on Tuesday where he went 6.2 innings before allowing a hit. In 89.1 innings in Triple A, he’s got a 2.92 ERA (though his walk rate is up and he’s giving up more hits, so there could be some good fortune in that ERA). He’s a flyball pitcher, so it will likely make him home run prone once he gets to the big leagues, but he can miss enough bats and should have pretty good control to allow him to limit damage. He projects as a number three starter with some upside and should get to Kansas City in September for a couple appearances.

Another prospect to dream on is John Lamb, who has finally made it back to the mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June and in the process of maintaining his conditioning, aggravated a tendon in his ankle and had to hold off on game action.

On Tuesday, he started for the Arizona Royals in Surprise, throwing a scoreless inning and striking out two. A batter reached on an error, but Lamb gave up no hits or walks.

The Royals will probably be very patient with him for the rest of this season, just getting him worked back into game speed. I think we’d all like to see him make a start at each level until he got back to Double A, but I think he’ll work within the rookie levels, then into instructional leagues. J.J. Picollo said on a recent Royals TV broadcast that they’re looking for Lamb to start in Double A next year and be on the fast track. Lamb’s got a good shot to make that happen – he’s been touted for his temperament before even being drafted, and has come back from significant injury before. He might see Kansas City late in 2013, possibly on a similar path as Odorizzi has been on this year of a few starts for the Naturals, a long stint in Omaha and then Kansas City in late August or as a September callup.

Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura is another guy to keep an eye on. He’s possibly got the most upside of any starter in the system, but those types usually have some risk. In his case, the Royals are probably going to have to resist the urge to turn him into a reliever if he encounters any bumps in the road. He’s small (listed at 5’11″ 140 pounds, though he looks like he’s filled out since) and the perception is that smaller pitchers are fragile or can’t hold up to the rigors of 200 inning seasons.

That being the case, he has the potential to be a high strikeout pitcher if he starts, has shown decent control, and has the type of stuff that misses bats. He can hurl a fastball into the triple digits, his curveball is developing into a solid secondary pitch and his changeup could be more than adequate. He’s currently on the disabled list in Double A with carpal tunnel symptoms in his wrist, but should finish the year there, start back there next year and hit Omaha in the summer months.

Of course, Kyle Zimmer should be in this discussion. The Royals first rounder in 2012 is only 20 years old coming out of college and has already started to shine in Low A Kane County’s rotation. He’s made eight pro starts, building up 33.2 innings, striking out 39 batters and walking just seven. He’s also been getting a decent amount of grounders in his short pro career. Strikeouts plus low walk totals plus groundball tendencies are great components for a future star to have. He’s had one rough start of those eight, but all of his others have been dominant. He’ll start next year at High A Wilmington and might be up in mid-2014 if he keeps rolling.

One pitcher who needs a new challenge is Sam Selman. The lefty from Vanderbilt has been destroying the Pioneer League and will hopefully get a shot at a higher level to see how his dominance continues. He’s striking out 13.9 batters per nine innings at Idaho Falls.

Kyle Smith struck out 11 batters in five innings in his first pro start for Idaho Falls and was moved to Kane Country afterwards. He’s continued to perform well there, making nine starts and striking out 58 batters in 45.2 innings. He has nearly a 5/1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He’ll turn 20 next month and isn’t the big, tall pitcher the Royals usually go for as a starter, but he deserves a look as he moves up the minor league ladder. His best start came two weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings, gave up just three hits and struck out 12 while walking none against Cedar Rapids. More of that, please.

Jason Adam

Another good arm in the system is Jason Adam. He started the season off well for Wilmington, hit some rough patches in May and June, but has righted the ship and is pitching well. His 5-11 record is deceiving, as he’s hardly gotten any run support in most of his starts, best demonstrated by a May 19 start when he went six innings, struck out seven and gave up two runs, and the Blue Rocks got no-hit. He’s surpassed seven innings in six starts to lead Wilmington and has a good share of 6+ IP starts as well.

As a result, he’s probably thrown too many innings to get anything more than a courtesy start in Double A. At 141 innings this year, he might be shut down soon. He’s a strong candidate to start the year in Double A next year after demonstrating enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9) and prevent walks (2 BB/9) this year while also inducing his share of ground balls. He has good stuff, but it’s not dominating, though he’s been adding velocity recently. He’s hit the mid-90s with his fastball before, and if he can build up to that level, it gives him more upside. He’s another guy who scouts suggest could be a #3 starter down the line.

Unfortunately, for the moment, this is all just dreaming on these guys, because Odorizzi’s the closest to the big leagues and won’t have much time in the big leagues if at all by next spring and it may keep him from making the team out of Surprise. Lamb and Ventura will probably hit Triple A next year, but among Zimmer, Adam, Selman and Smith, there’s not a single pitch at the Double A level yet. That puts them some ways away from the big leagues.

Ideally, the Royals will be able to add these arms to the mix in the future. They won’t have much impact next season so if the Royals are to build up their rotation (which they need to do), they’ll have to go after those free agent targets. They may have to put one of these arms into a trade to get a better return on a starter with another team. The Royals want to bring their star starters up from the minor leagues and have a homegrown staff, and that’s commendable, but for the moment, unless Mike Montgomery (5.71 ERA in 41 innings after his demotion to Double A) or Chris Dwyer (6.21 ERA in Omaha) figure things out – sooner rather than later – the homegrown pipeline of pitching talent will remain a pipe dream.

Jake Odorizzi (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Omaha beat Las Vegas in the first game of their four-game series, 7-0. The Storm Chasers had two 3-run innings to go along with a no-hitter watch from Jake Odorizzi. He carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning before a walk and a Jack Cust single with two outs broke it up. Overall, Odorizzi allowed that one hit and two walks over seven innings. He struck out four. Brandon Sisk got into trouble in the 8th inning (two hits) before inducing an inning-ending double play. He cruised through the ninth 1-2-3.

Every starter for Omaha had at least one hit, except Wil Myers and Derrick Robinson. Irving Falu and Johnny Giavotella each collected two hits, while Max Ramirez went 3-for-4.

Wilmington‘s winning streak came to an end in Potomac with a 7-5 loss. The Blue Rocks held a 5-0 lead heading into the 5th inning when the P-Nats scored two runs off Leondy Perez, and another five more in the 6th inning.

The Blue Rocks couldn’t capitalize on ten hits and six P-Nats errors. It didn’t help that they went just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and struck out 13 times.

*Both NW Arkansas and Kane County had off on Tuesday.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a solo homerun and three strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-2 win over Princeton.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

Jake Odorizzi pitched well for the Storm Chasers, but ended up with the no-decision. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out four.

Irving Falu and Adam Moore each collected two hits, while Wil Myers went 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored.

Whit Merrifield leading off on Opening Night for Wilmington

Down 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th inning, NW Arkansas scored two runs in that inning and walked off winners over Midland, 5-4. With one out, the newest Natural, Whit Merrifield doubled. After an intentional walk, Kevin Kouzmanoff flied out, moving the runners up a base. So with two outs, Manny Pina delivered the game winner, an RBI single to center.

Merrifield had an eventful first game in Double-A. He homered in the 5th inning with two outs off a former foe, Sonny Gray (who dominated in his time at Vanderbilt). Plus, he scored the game winning run.

The Naturals bullpen duo of Buddy Baumann and Ryan Dennick combined to throw five scoreless innings of relief. They allowed one hit and three walks while striking out six.

Wilmington was blasted by Winston-Salem, 8-0. The Blue Rocks were out-hit 13-3. Geulin Beltre collected two of the hits and also threw a runner out from right field at second base.

The Blue Rocks were sloppy, as they made two errors along with a passed ball. The Dash also stole five bases.

Kane County lost their first game in Clinton, 6-2. Both teams collected eight hits, but the Cougars’ hits were all singles. Jorge Bonifacio and Dean Espy each collected two hits.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in Burlington’s 7-1 loss to Danville.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

Different Day, Same Result (Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE)

Have you stopped paying attention? Or, like me, do you continue to torture yourself with optimism and search like Sherlock Holmes for any bit of good news. Basically, the same thing we’ve all been doing for as long as we can remember. With Chiefs training camp about to start, the Summer Olympics in London, and the pitter-patter of College Football, odds are that the amount of people paying attention to our Major League Baseball team is going to fall drastically.

Well, I have some ideas that might help the Royals retain some of their audience in 2012. This is what they should do the rest of the way:

1) Scrap the Rotation.
Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Jeremy Guthrie. That’s your current five man rotation. ERAs of 5.54, 5.26, 4.31, 6.26, and 6.49 respectively. You need to blow it up, shake their hands & tell them thank you, and go with your “ideal” rotation for the rest of the year – no matter how bad it gets. That may mean keeping Mendoza and even Smith, but let’s say you go with Aaron Crow, Ryan Verdugo, Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock & call up Jake Odorizzi. You throw those guys out there & let them see what they can do over the course of 65 games. Starting every 5th game, each of them would get aprox. 13 starts. By the end of the year, you’d know exactly what you have in these guys. Right now, you’ve got a guy who’s been talked about as a starter, a minor league sensation, the potential saving grace of the Sanchez-Cabrera trade, and a couple of guys who’ve spent half the season on I-29.

Another Call to the Bullpen-Will Anyone Answer? (Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

2) Rest the Bullpen.
These guys are burnt out. With the exception of Aaron Crow, who’ll be worked into the starting rotation, everyone else needs a break. I’d like to see Tommy Hottovy get a chance to replace Crow and see some innings – again, to see if he’s any good. I like a majority of the bullpen guys, but the problem is that they’re usually entering the game in a bad situation and without the benefit of a lead. Over the course of a season though, all of these innings are going to catch up with them. Guys will tire out, perform worse, and possibly get injured. The relief needs some relief.

3) Put your 2013 Team on the Field.
When I look at the current team, I like it. I think it can be great. They’re gaining experience everyday that will (hopefully) someday pay big dividends, especially if they’re not playing from behind all the time. I only see two gaps – Right Field and Second Base. It’s not that Frenchy & YuniGetz are horrible every day, but everybody knows that they’re not the long term solution. What other positions on the field aren’t occupied by our long term solution? Therefore, you get Johnny Giavotella back to Kansas City and give him the rest of the season to prove that he can hit at the Major League Level. He’s got nothing left to prove in Omaha & has been mishandled thus far in KC. He’s your everyday second baseman the rest of the way. Finally, you pull the freaking trigger on Wil Myers and play him in the outfield. I think that Jeff Francoeur would make a great mentor for Myers, and would be a good use of his talents for the remainder of the year. Basically, you make Francoeur Wil’s personal fielding & etiquette coach. I’d rather see him cut his teeth at the big league level with absolutely no pressure than to continue to watch him hit .340 in Omaha. His arrival will bring a spark to the fanbase.

The Kid is Ready-Make it Happen Already (Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

4) Set your Ideal Lineup.
I don’t care who is hitting what, I’m tired of seeing the lineup shuffled every single day. Hosmer is not (hopefully) an 8 hole hitter. Mike Moustakas should never hit eigth. Create your lineup and stick with it. Gordon, Escobar, Cain, Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Myers, Giavotella. GO. Looks good, right? Get guys comfortable with where they’re hitting. Bunt in bunt situations with good bunters. Play to the talents of individual hitters for the greater good of the collective lineup. I understand that it’s hard to have a consistent lineup when guys aren’t performing, but always shuffling the lineup makes players ancy. It gets in their head. They shouldn’t have to look at the lineup card every day to figure out where they’re hitting.

Throwback Roadies (Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE)

5) Throwback Uniforms.
Moving beyond the talent on the field, you’ve got to do more to entertain the fans as well. This should involve being the first team to wear throwback uniforms for every game. I’m not talking about the baby blue alternate top – I mean the KC Monarchs throwbacks that they work against the Twins this past Saturday. Not only were they completely awesome, they have a tendency to make players look more gritty than they might already be. Complete the look by scrapping the Royal Blue “KC” black helmets and just wear plain black helmets the rest of the way. Road uniforms could be the ones the team wore against the Pirates on June 9th. (without the BLUE) Also, “new” uniforms means more apparel sales along the way. Who knows, maybe you start a trend in Major League Baseball?

6) Free Parking.
Why not? I get it that the Royals would lose revenue by not being able to charge thousands of cars $10 to park their car and walk 1/2 a mile to get into the stadium. However, I feel that something like having to pay for parking is just one more excuse why people would not want to come out and watch this team in person this year. If you don’t charge to park (see: Kansas City T-Bones), more people would show up and you could make your money back in concession and merchandise sales. Also, you’ve got to reimburse the fans who have already bought parking passes. You could do this with “stadium bucks” if you prefer. Besides, you can’t lose money on parking because you’re not giving the fan anything in return, just a piece of pavement. A very narrow piece of pavement.

7) Reward the Season Ticket Holders.
Do this by upgrading everyone to the lower bowl. If you have season tickets in the lower bowl, you get moved forward (if you want). Everyone else who bought season tickets in the upper deck? Come on down… Instead of having scattered loyal fans way up high, you make their year and put them closer to the action. This accomplishes many things and sets you up for others. First of all, the stadium would look more full on TV. Secondly, some of those fans who bought cheap seats might realize how much better the experience is when you sit closer, and be willing to shell out a little more money for lower bowl tickets next year. Surely there were a lot of one-time season ticket holders this year because of the All-Star Game opportunities, so you’ve got to do something to try and get them to become repeat customers. Also, it’s a pretty cool way to say thank you to the fans that made a financial commitment to you, even though you haven’t done the same for them.

Plenty of Good Seats Still Available (Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

8 ) Backfill the Upper Deck.
Now that everyone has been moved downstairs, you’ve got to do something with that spacious upper deck. Make it $5 general admission seating for the rest of the season. Remember the excitement of waiting in line for the best GA ticket? Well, that’s gone now, and the best you can do (cheapest) is a Hy-Vee Outfield Seat, which is in the corners of the Upper Deck for $12. “$12? Na, I’ll just stay home. $5 and free parking? Take me out to the ballgame. Buy me beers and sausages.”

9) Improve the TV Broadcast.
This is for the fans who prefer to stay home, can’t afford to – or don’t have time to go to every game, or would rather not fight the heat or the crowd. You think I’m going to say replace Rex Hudler or worse (in my opinion), Steve Physioc. But I’m not. I’m going for the gold here. I love Joel Goldberg, but you replace him with former 38 The Spot host Holly Starr. This may be a desperate attempt to retain viewers, but I think we’re at that point. Keep Joel as part of the Pre & Post game if you want, but make Holly his co-host. You can lose Jeff Montgomery. I don’t care if she doesn’t know a thing about baseball – People will watch.

What do they define insanity as? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. With these changes, the rest of a lost season could definitely be an interesting one to watch.

Alcides Escobar is one of the Royals most exciting players in 2012 (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I got the idea for this story while watching Alcides Escobar jolt two no-doubt home runs in the same game while batting from his new home in the two-hole on Saturday, July 14 during a 6-3 Royals victory over the first place White Sox.  By the end of the game, Escobar was batting .311 and was surprising all of us with his ability to hit for power and average.

Think about how excited the clubhouse gets when Moustakas belts a home run.  They meet him at the top of the dugout steps, they high five and chest bump each other.  Now, think about what would happen if Chris Getz ever hits another of his “every blue moon” dingers.  (Getz hasn’t had a home run in any park – major or minor league – since 2009 during his stint with the White Sox.)  The team would meet him at home plate, they would pick him up and carry him back to the bench.  They would drown him in Gatorade.  Why?  Because it wasn’t expected.  When a player exceeds your expectations, it truly makes the game a thrill to watch.

Alcides Escobar came to us in the Zack Greinke trade.  Milwaukee packaged him with Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress to get our former Cy Young pitcher.  In addition to Greinke, the Royals tossed Yuniesky “Boomerang” Betancourt into the deal as well for good measure.  Unfortunately, Yuni didn’t stick, and he came back to us again this year.

The players the Brewers traded to the Royals were the best prospects they had to offer.  Lorenzo Cain would have been the Brewers starting Centerfielder, Jake Odorizzi is considered to be a future solid contributor from the starting rotation, and Jeremy Jeffress is a former 1^st round pick who is still developing.

Alcides had also garnered some significant accolades, particularly for his defense.  Beginning his career as an Amateur Free agent in 2003, he’s always hit for average in the minors (.293 career over 6 seasons), but his bat has consistently been overshadowed by his glove, and as we all know, offensive prowess doesn’t always translate as well from the minors to the big leagues the way defensive ability does.

Alcides Escobar demonstrates his superb defensive skills. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

Prior to assuming regular duty with the Brewers in 2010, Escobar was ranked as the #1 prospect in the Brewers system by Baseball America, and Sports Illustrated claimed he was the 17^th most promising prospect in all of baseball saying, “Escobar has the arm, infield actions, hands and range to win Gold Gloves at shortstop. He makes the routine plays and the tough ones, too. Plus, he has speed that impacts the game offensively, and his swing’s not so bad either.”  Saying his swing is “not so bad” isn’t exactly the greatest compliment, but there is no doubt that everyone recognized Escobar’s dynamic defensive potential.

Escobar struggled somewhat in his first full season in the majors with the Brewers.  He hit a light .235 (which unfortunately is still a few points above the “Hosmer line”) and experienced some difficulties defensively too.  He committed the 3^rd most errors of all National League shortstops, and had the unfortunate luck to mishandle the ball with incredibly bad timing.  Brewers fans claimed Escobar suffered from a “lack of focus” and had a habit of committing costly errors at exactly the wrong time.  This disappointing performance may have been why the Brewers were willing to include Escobar in the trade.  Lucky us.

After the Greinke trade, the only note MLB.com included about Alcides in their story was that he had “the tools to be an extremely exciting defensive player” but he struggles at the plate.  ESPN said almost exactly the same thing.

So, what did we think we were getting when Alcides Escobar trotted out to man the left side of second base to begin the 2011 season?  We thought we were getting a light hitting defensive whiz who needed to work on his concentration and focus to be successful at the major league level.  And in 2011, that’s exactly what we got – a .254 batting average, 4 home runs, and 15 errors, but he was at least as good or a little bit better in almost all areas over his previous season.   So, we were pleasantly surprised as his performance mildly exceeded our expectations.

To begin 2012, I believe most of us were expecting another similar season out of Esky.  We expected him to play strong defense, and to hold his own on offense, but we didn’t think he could be a game changer or even a player that we could count on for a key hit.  Escobar has met our defensive expectations with some of the most exciting infield defense most of us have ever witnessed, but on offense…  he’s surpassed our wildest expectations.

If you think Alcides Escobar can't hurt you with his bat, you are mistaken. (Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE)

Think back to last March as we were contemplating the season opener.  What would you have predicted about Alcides Escobar?  Would you have ever dreamed he would be mentioned in the same breath as Derek Jeter on offense?  Jeter and Escobar have been jousting for the league lead in batting average among shortstops.  Jeter has 7 home runs, Esky has 4.  Jeter has 27 RBI, Escobar has 29.  Escobar has far, far better range and defensive skills than the always dependable but long-in-the-tooth Jeter, making plays on balls that Derek would only waive at.  And Escobar is providing this production for the Royals at a $15 million discount over what Jeter is charging the Yankees.  Stunning, but true.

A few nights ago, Brad Brickell tweeted (@BradBrick) that the Royals win the Greinke trade on Escobar alone, and I agree with him, at least to this point.  Greinke is a great pitcher, and I’d love to have him back again when he hits free agency later this year.  But up to this point, I think it’s clear that Alcides has easily exceeded our expectations, and he’s a key factor in our bright hopes for the future.  Hopefully, all baseball fans will realize this when they’re voting for the All Star players in 2013.

The Storm Chasers came back with three runs in the bottom of the 9th inning, capped by Johnny Giavotella‘s two-run homerun. Clint Robinson, who hit a two-run homerun in the first inning, popped up with the tying run on first base to end the game.

Brian Fletcher

NW Arkansas broke their losing streak with a 5-4 victory over Arkansas in the series finale. The Naturals used the homerun ball to end the streak. John Whittleman hit a two-run homerun in the first inning and Brian Fletcher hit a three-run homerun in the 5th inning.

Mike Montgomery earned the victory in his first home game with the Naturals since 2010. He allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits and four walks over 6.1 innings. He threw 89 pitches, just 48 for strikes. Juan Gutierrez returned to the mound after Tommy John surgery (he signed with the KC Royals this past offseason) and struck out two in his one inning of relief.

In case you haven’t heard, veteran catcher Jason Kendall signed a minor league deal with the Royals and has been added to the Naturals roster. He is expected to start for them on Friday. Maybe he can help their struggling pitchers?

It took until there was one out in the top of the 8th inning for Wilmington to pick up their first (and only) hit of the game against Myrtle Beach’s Kyle Hendricks. That hit came via Murray Watts, who picked up an RBI double. Problem is, the Blue Rocks lost 2-1, as they were swept by the Pelicans.

Jason Adam was the hard luck loser, as he dropped to 2-10 on the season. He was again beaten by the longball; he allowed a two-run homerun in the bottom of the 5th inning. He only allowed two hits and one walk while striking out four. Hendricks struck out at least one batter in every inning except the 6th (he pitched 7.1 innings), for a total of eight.

Kane County‘s game at Bowling Green was suspended, with the Cougars winning 2-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning. Angel Baez had pitched a perfect inning in the start. A rain delay of close to two hours halted the game and it will be made up on Friday night (the regularly scheduled game will follow with a seven-inning affair).

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling hit his third homerun of his career in the first inning in Burlington’s 4-3 win over Danville. Starling went 2-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base (his third of the season).

Irving Falu and Clint Robinson each had two hits in the win.

Jake Odorizzi improved to 6-0 in Triple-A, as he allowed the one run on seven hits and four walks over six innings. He struck out four.

March 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Mike Montgomery (22) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for Mike Montgomery, they did. He was demoted to Double-A NW Arkansas and lost on Saturday night to Springfield, 5-1. He allowed all five runs on six hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six while throwing 60 of his 92 pitches for strikes.

The Naturals offense was dormant, with their lone run coming via a Carlo Testa homerun. They had just three hits.

The Naturals have now lost three in a row and will try to salvage the series finale at Springfield on Sunday.

Wilmington moved to within a game of first place in the Northern Division of the Carolina League with a 6-3 win over Potomac. Elisaul Pimentel picked up his first win since being sent back to the Blue Rocks. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Matt Fields hit another homerun, his 9th since joining the Blue Rocks, while Lane Adams went 3-for-4. Whit Merrifield went 2-for-5 in the win.

Kane County beat West Michigan, 6-4. The two teams combined for 21 hits and seven errors. Justin Trapp led off and went 3-for-5 with a homerun. Dean Espy and Tim Ferguson each collected two hits.

Bryan Brickhouse picked up the win, as he allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits over six innings. He struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Burlington moved on to Princeton, but had the same result that they had over the last three days in Kingsport: another postponement.

Will Mike Moustakas overtake Billy Butler in HR's and RBIs in the second half?. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City will get to .500 at the K

I really feel that the Royals will play better at home and my faith comes from what I was a part of during the All-Star break at the K. The city and fan base wants a winner and I think they’ll come out to support the team which will translate to the team feeling the love which will turn to wins.

Mike Moustakas leads the team in HR’s and RBIs

Get ready for more MOOOOOOOOSE! Chants in the second half of the season because I feel the Royals sophomore third baseman will continue to improve. He’s not far behind Country Breakfast in homeruns and runs batted in which I think he’ll overtake him in the second half.

Wil Myers won’t appear until August of September

Driving back from KC on Wednesday I decided to listen to both 610 (the Royals flagship) and 810 (the former rights holder) on the drive back. Flipping between both got me to thinking that Wil Myers might not be in Kansas City as soon as hoped. Dayton Moore was on 810 and he mentioned that Jake Odorizzi might be in triple-A the whole year and depending on how Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur do (or get moved) he’ll be a Storm Chaser longer.

Royals won’t make a move at the deadline

I’m gun-shy about what GMDM will do at the deadline, I’ve got fears that nothing will happen. Obviously many fans want Frenchy gone for the purpose of letting Myers play. With 2013 being now dubbed the year it seems prospects might not be moved to get pitching at this deadline which is the biggest need right now. I really want to be wrong on this prediction in the worse way. In the offseason probably will be a different story when the team will need to acquire pitching.

Kansas City finishes the season around .500

Not only will the team get to .500 at home which helps the overall record is why I make this prediction. The team might’ve finished the first half with a whimper but I feel this group will make strides like they did last year and will be a thorn in the side of those competing. I’m also of the belief that the starters will help the bullpen which also helps the W/L record. Better starting pitching will lead to a less taxing of the ‘pen which makes the entire staff better.

In our second show of All-Star Weekend, we find the Royalmen in the epicenter of All-Star Festivities right outside of the Power and Light District at The Flying Saucer. We started out show with a bit of a scare as we went on the air right as a bomb threat occurred.

Once that was cleared, we turned to happier topics such as what the All-Star festivities meant to Kansas City and Fan Fest. The first half of the show, Chris is joined by Rambling Morons cohorts Laurie Kunkel and Chris Atkins. The second half of the show focused on the Futures Game and the performances of Royals Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Yordano Ventura as well as the game’s MVP Nick Castellanos and the ridiculous speed of Billy Hamilton with reaction from Michael Engel and Troy Olsen.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Many of the challenges the Royals have faced this year can be attributed to the multitude of injuries that have plagued the team.  The Royals experienced more serious injuries in Spring Training than during all of 2011, and we are only now beginning to see a sliver of light at the end of the tunnel.

The 2012 injury story began with a backup catcher in a noncompetitive situation.  While Manuel Pina wasn’t expected to contribute much to the Royals in 2012 (little did they know they could have used him to open the season after Salvador Perez went down), but on February 22 he torn his meniscus and this injury was the beginning of a long line of devastating setbacks the team has suffered to its roster.

Joakim Soria spoiled Royals fans for several years. (Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE)

On March 13, Salvador Perez twisted his knee resulting in an almost identical injury to Manuel Pina, causing the Royals to lose 2 of their top 3 catchers for the first half of the season.  This roster hole forced the team to pick up Humberto Quintero, Mr. “Catch and Throw,” in a trade with Houston.  “Q” as he was frequently called by teammates was heralded as a great defensive player, although I never personally witnessed any evidence of this, and at bat he performed as you would expect a veteran bench player to perform.  (Lousy.)  So the Royals endured the first half of the season with little to no production from behind the plate.  Fortunately, Salvador returned to the lineup in June, and all is right with the world again.  Well, at least in the catching world.

I was sitting in the stands in Surprise, Arizona on March 18 when Joakim Soria was on the mound and felt a “tug” in his elbow.  He hadn’t pitched well that day and there was an uneasiness in the stands among Royals fans that something was definitely wrong.  We later learned that tug was a warning bell that Soria was going to require Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career, and forced the Royals to use Jonathan “roller coaster” Broxton as their closer.  As many people have accurately said, for the most part Broxton is getting the job done, but few players have caused fans (including me) more angst than he has.  Soria definitely spoiled us.

But Joakim isn’t the only Royals pitcher to go under the knife.  Not that any of us would have been excited to see Blake Wood in Kansas City this year, but he is out for the season with a case of the Tommy John illness.  As is Felipe Paulino – just as he was beginning to prove that possibly all of his potential and “stuff” might translate into solid performances and wins.  It’s sad when your rotation is so weak that you miss Felipe Paulino.  But I miss him, I really really do.

The Royals anxiously await Danny Duffy's recovery from Tommy John surgery (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

It brings a tear to my eye as I remember Danny Duffy exiting the game after throwing only 13 pitches on Mother’s Day.  I think every educated baseball fan immediately knew this meant another key contributor was lost for this season, and possibly beyond.  If you’re wondering, yes, Tommy John strikes again.  Is it contagious?

Not that I’m thrilled to see Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup, and I’m not enamored with Chris Getz either, but when the team is thin at a few positions like second base, you don’t want to see anyone on your roster sitting in the trainer’s room.  Escobar has experienced nagging ankle problems, and Getz has been working through a variety of ailments including bruised ribs and a lower leg lateral strain that have sent both of them up and down so many times that it’s been a guessing game about who will play second base each day.

The Royals started the year strong, winning 2 out of 3 from the heavily favored Angels.  Then on April 10, while winning the 3^rd of their first 5 games of the year, Lorenzo Cain bumped into the Centerfield wall while chasing down a fly ball and suffered what was initially called a “slight pull of the left groin.”  This slight pull turned into a torn hip flexor and an on-again, off-again stay on the disabled list that has kept him out of the Royals lineup ever since.

Salvador Perez blocks the plate, and all is right with the world again. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

The good news is the Royals appear to be healing up.  As mentioned earlier, Salvador Perez has already made an impact in the short time he’s been back on the team, and most Lorenzo Cain is on the verge of making his first appearance in KC this year.

Unfortunately, the team’s pitching woes won’t be corrected anytime soon, but if Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, Joakim Soria, and John Lamb (a Top 20 prospect who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011) needed to sit out a year, it’s much better that it happen this year rather than next.  (Although, I suppose we don’t know for certain when any of them will return.)  In 2013 we expect Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to be in KC, Eric Hosmer’s sophomore slump to be in the rear view mirror, we’ll have Salvador and Lorenzo for the entire season, and the Royals front office will be laser focused on adding a prime arm or two to the rotation through trades or free agency.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the serious injury bug doesn’t visit the Royals again next year.

We were honored to be a part of the Baseball Prospectus event on Sunday afternoon.

The Royalman Report came to you from the historic Gem Theater in the Jazz district at 18th and Vine in a panel format. Included with us was Craig Brown from Royals Review and took questions from attendees related to the ideal pitching staff, David Glass, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and more.

It was a very special moment and we’re appreciative of the Joe Hamrahi and the Baseball Prospectus guys for inviting us to take part and also want to thank Bob Kendrick from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum for taking time out of his busy schedule to help us set it up at the Gem, as well.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Within an outstanding atmosphere and a few sprinkles of rain (which helped bring the temperature down into reasonable territory, as opposed to the triple digits the Midwest has been tormented by recently), fans were able to faces to names as the best minor league talent was putting on a show at Kauffman Stadium.

The field at the K during the Futures Game, shot by @scottweiters

The Royals fans gave warm welcomes to their three representatives. Jake Odorizzi and Yordano Ventura (who will reportedly be promoted to Double A) started the game for Team USA and the World Team respectively while Wil Myers started in right field. All three gained large ovations when they were announced, with Myers getting the largest.

Once the game started, Odorizzi made one mistake to Jurickson Profar, who took a high fastball into the right field corner and over the wall for a homer, but Odorizzi struck out Diamondbacks pr0spect Alfredo Marte to finish the inning. Ventura dispatched the US team with little incident, inducing three groundouts in a perfect inning. In the Futures Game, pitchers don’t go more than an inning, so the Royals duo of pitchers were in and out quickly.

Wil Myers batted third for George Brett‘s USA team and received a standing ovation in his first at bat. He grounded out to third, but it was close at first. Myers played the whole game, moving to center field halfway through the game. He drove in three and went 2-4 with two singles and a sacrifice fly. He made every play in the outfield that he had a shot at, but didn’t make quick reads in center, so he has more to get used to in that spot. He didn’t look lost, just not as comfortable as he did in right.

The World team jumped out to a 4-0 lead after the Profar homer and a two-run homer by Jae-Hoon Ha of the Cubs. They added the fourth in the third inning but only one more all day.

The US team got on the board after Billy Hamilton drove a ball to deep center that got over Ha’s head, which was dangerous with Hamilton’s speed – he ended up with a two run triple and flew around the basepaths in the process. Kelton Wong of the Cardinals hit a one-out chopped back to Chris Reed of the Dodgers who looked Hamilton back and made a bad throw to first which let Wong get over to third after driving in the run. Myers grounded out to second to tie the score.

The runs just piled up after that for the US team. In the sixth inning, they put up nine runs, including a three run bomb to center by game MVP Nick Castellanos of the Tigers. Ariel Pena was hit hard repeatedly in the inning and gave up eight runs and only retired Myers, who hit a sacrifice fly to drive in a run.

Manny Machado was impressive in the game. On the US side, the Orioles prospect doubled off the left field wall and made a couple of leaping catches at shortstop. Mike Olt from the Rangers system had a deep drive for a double as well.

The game wasn’t really close, but it was an entertaining event regardless and attendance was better than most other Futures Games. Many were Royals fans there to see Myers and company, but they were treated to the elite of the minor leagues – and a lot of offense.

Bonus – I wanted to share this gif of a foul ball that Myers just missed during the game that broke the camera behind home plate (simply click the image):

Wil Myers fouls one off ... of the camera.

July 10, 2011; Phoenix, AZ, USA; USA outfielders Matthew Szczur (4) , Bryce Harper (middle) and Wil Myers (right) celebrate after the 2011 Futures Game at Chase Field. USA won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

In today’s know-everything-first, savior-in-the-making, prospect pleasure land, people tend to over-hype everything. Media allows us access to high school football games (a lot of them), little league games, college sports, and so on. On the Internet, we can get analysis and scouting reports on children—read that line again and let it sink in. Think of Bryce Harper, the phenom of the moment. According to ESPN, Baseball America, the Washington Nationals, and Under Armor (he endorses them), Harper is the second coming of Babe Ruth or Willie Mays. According to Fangraphs, he’s hitting .274/.348/.471, which is exceptional for a 19-year-old.

My point, and I’d say it’s a point of criticism, is that we go to extremes with our perspective on players … especially prospects. Until they reach the majors, they are a relative unknown, which helps create our extreme views. We knew less about Harper the player before he got to the majors so that gave us the license to create the fantasy Bryce Harper in our imagination. And fantasy Bryce Harper is phenomenal, perhaps to an unobtainable degree.

If Harper stays the player he is today and finishes his career with the same slash line as right now, he will have been a relative disappointment. He will not have walked on water, leapt tall buildings, solved the debt crisis, and rolled back prices all while creating sweet catch phrases like “That’s a clown question, bro.” Even though his numbers so far this season would equal a pretty good major league player over the course of 15 seasons, it won’t be good enough.

Harper may live up to his hype. The media loves to help players reach it by exaggerating every small things they do as if no one has ever done it before (Remember when Harper hustled around the bases on a popout and ESPN gushed as if no one had ever ran out a popout? Boy, that was terrific journalism). But it takes a lot to get there. He’ll have to be a superstar, nothing else will suffice because people have already created the player they want him to be.

This all came to my mind while I was watching the Omaha Storm Chasers game this morning on MiLB.tv. I wanted to see Jake Odorizzi pitch; I watch most of his starts. The broadcasters mentioned that he would start the Futures Game, but they also talked about another guy who started in the Futures Game something like a decade ago: Josh Fields. Fields is playing for the Albuquerque Isotopes now so Odorizzi pitched against him on Monday.

As Fields, a guy with great promise in his day and plenty of major league opportunities, dug in, I thought to myself: Look at the contrast here. One guy’s star has faded another’s is shining bright. No one knew that Fields would bust at the big league level, but fewer people back then were paying attention to the minor league level. Fields was coming up just as fans started raising expectations on top prospects.

Today, we pin hopes to players in the minor leagues more so than ever. Many Royals blogs and news outlets reported Bubba Starling’s big day on Monday, hitting the first two homeruns of his professional career. Harper and Mike Trout are two of the biggest names in baseball and have been since they were in the low minors. We see these bits of news on rookie ball players like Starling, or Harper when he was down there, and let it fuel our hopeful frenzy. Oddly, when Bubba went 0-5 the other night, no one said much but when he hit two homeruns in one game, we started clearing a spot on our mantels next to Jesus and John McClain (Doesn’t everyone’s mantle have John McClain from Die Hard on it?).

I’ll admit, it’s fun to be hopeful. I spent all this morning looking up stuff about Bubba and dreaming of he, Wil Myers, and Alex Gordon in the outfield. But to do so without critical thought is not fair to the player, the team, or yourself as a fan. Gordon felt the pressure that comes with people pinning their hopes to him. Everyone knew he’d be the next George Brett. Everyone knew he’d be great. And for a long time, he wasn’t, and fans were mad at him for it. Was our disappointment his fault? No. It was ours. We created the fantasy Alex Gordon, and he folded under the pressure of trying to be that thing.

I notice this more as I think about the All-Star Futures Game. The Royals have three young players in it: Odorizzi, Myers, and Yordano Ventura. I’ve already given my thoughts on Myers (good and bad). I know very little about Ventura. So, I’ll give you my thoughts on Odorizzi, and more importantly, I’ll try to do it in a realistic way.

Feb 29, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi (49) poses for a picture during the Royals photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

I’ve seen most of his starts this year, and I’m excited like everyone else. To me, his greatest weapon is his fastball. He commands it well, especially up in the zone as an outpitch. If I’m excited about one aspect of his game, it’s that he can use his fastball effectively, something that not too many Royals starters have. He’s poised on the mound and consistent. Sometimes his breaking pitches get a little wild, and they don’t have the type of hard-breaking, late movement associated with aces like Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez. But they’re pretty good.

Here’s what scares me about Odorizzi: he gives up a lot of hits. He’s given up 52 hits in 47.2 innings at Omaha this season. When I watch him, he’s always pitching with guys on base. He’s always pitching out of jams. He usually gets out of them because he can strike guys out, which makes his ERA look fine. It’s 2.83 in Omaha, but his opponent’s BA is .274. But it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that against top-flight talent in the majors.

That’s why I’m excited to see him in the Futures Game. I want to see him get tested against the best hitters in the minors. I want to see him have a few guys on with nobody out and see if he can work out of that jam. In the majors, he’ll face tough hitters like Miguel Cabrera with runners on base, not random Albuquerque Isotopes players … well … like Josh Fields

It’s easy to look at Odorizzi and become unreasonably excited. From that comes unreasonable expectations and unreasonable disappointment. It makes more sense to be realistically optimistic and contextually open-minded than to hang our hopes and dreams on a kid, and then rip the kid for not delivering.

Jim Nash finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 1966 for the Kansas City A’s with a 12-1 record and a 2.06 ERA. He was gracious enough to talk to us about his career and journey to the big leagues on the latest episode of the Vault.

Turns out, a chance discussion with manager Al Dark may have helped him get noticed during spring training and earned him a shot at the majors that year. He covers it in detail on the show.

We also talked to Aaron and Chance from Biking for Baseball – a group who travels by bike across the country and is visiting every big league stadium this season. Between games, they team up with Big Brothers Big Sisters to share baseball with children all over the country. They’re a fun group and doing good things.

After parting with our guests, we argued over Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, talked about All Star candidates and Royalman ranted about Jonathan Sanchez.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

April 9, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) at bat against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at O.co Coliseum. Oakland defeated Kansas City 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Jake Odorizzi was looking to stay undefeated in Triple-A for Omaha (and technically he still is), as the Storm Chasers beat New Orleans, 8-5. The Storm Chasers have now won four in a row. Odorizzi lasted just three innings and allowed all five runs, though only two were earned. The four-run 3rd inning did him in. One run scored on a Tony Abreu fielding error and two scored after that (with two outs).

Down 5-1, Omaha came storming back, with two runs in the bottom of the 3rd inning and three more in the 4th inning. Wil Myers hit a two-out, two-run homerun in the 3rd inning (his 12th in Triple-A). Lorenzo Cain, who has moved up in his rehab, hit a two-run homerun in the 4th inning.

Wilmington lost the series finale to Potomac, 7-4 as the two teams split the four-game series. Elisaul Pimentel returned to the Blue Rocks after spending last season there (he was pitching in Double-A). He took the loss, as he allowed seven runs (six earned) on six hits and two walks over just 4.1 innings.

Tyler Sample celebrated his 23rd birthday with two shutout innings out of the bullpen. To make room for Pimentel, the seldom used Michael Liberto was promoted to Double-A.

The Blue Rocks return home to play a short three-game series beginning on Thursday before heading back out on the road Sunday. It will be their first home series of the second half.

Kane County salvaged the series finale against Beloit, 3-1. Angel Baez threw 5.2 scoreless innings to earn his second win, despite walking four (he allowed just three hits).

Julio Aparicio collected two hits with a batting average of just .438 (in just four games).

*Still no Bubba Starling, but he tweeted that he will debut Thursday in Johnson City.

Mike Montgomery should get a shot in the Royals' rotation. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

So far this season, the Royals have used 22 different pitchers (including Mr. Terrific, Mitch Maier). They used 23 in all of 2011, 25 in 2010, 23 in 2009, and 25 in 2008. I don’t know that that means too much, except when you look at last season’s roster, a few of those guys didn’t show up in Kansas City until the second half or late in the year. We’ve got a little ways to go and there are always a few guys (Ryan Verdugo, Doug Davis, Brandon Sisk, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, etc.) who could arrive and vault that total number toward 30. If things keep moving as they are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen.

Well, we’re down two starters to Tommy John surgery: Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Their replacements, Vin Mazzaro and Luis Mendoza, haven’t been quite as terrible as some would have predicted, but they haven’t helped out the cause lately, either. And that makes you wonder where the starts are going to come from. If the Royals’ bats can’t stack up enough runs to offset the replacement pitchers, what do they do to win?

Honestly, it’s hard to say. One thing I’d like to see them try, however, is to hit the brakes on the pitcher shuffling with Omaha. Stop grabbing relievers at random and bringing them up because the starters aren’t cutting it. If the starters are the issue, try new starters. Try something different. Try Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi.

I understand why they may not want to do this. You lose options on those guys if they come to Kansas City and then implode, necessitating a return to Omaha. They’re both 22, and it’s possible they get slammed and lose confidence a bit. Or, if they have the mental resolve (which I’m in no place to comment on), they rebound and work harder the next time. Montgomery has been laboring at Omaha for a while now, and his starts have been touch-and-go during that time. It’s really difficult to say just how he’d throw with the Royals, but he may need that experience to take a step forward. As for Odorizzi, he hasn’t been in Omaha nearly as long, but he’s pitched well and struck out just over three batters per every walk. Now, he needs to get some more grounders (0.39 groundout/flyout on the season with Omaha), but there’s seemingly little else he needs to do.

And, mainly, the Royals need arms.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

As I said, they could call up Doug Davis. He’s been throwing fairly well so far and could potentially eat some innings for the Royals. He could be a potential stopgap in the bleeding rotation. But he’s not nearly as important to the Royals as Montgomery and Odorizzi are.

If the Royals’ plan is to hold their biggest remaining cards (Wil Myers, Montgomery, Odorizzi, mainly) for a big splash in 2013, I get that idea. But they have shown signs of life this season and could at least edge into the conversation, even if they have a low probability of winning the division. Some youthful sparks could do that, though, of course, it’s hard to say what will happen.

But if the biggest argument is not rushing them (which I’ve used before many times), then at least Montgomery should get a shot at a few starts. Try it out and if he sticks, great. If not, no harm, no foul, and he hopefully learns something. I find this a hard argument to make, as I tend to be a “wait-and-see” sort of guy, but when we’re relying on shutouts from Luke Hochevar and strong pitching from Bruce Chen or Jonathan Sanchez, we’re already in trouble. Pitching was a question mark before the season and it’s developed into an even bigger one as the season has progressed. It may be time to try something novel rather than resort to the same method we’ve been using.

So, I’m going back on my prior debate about whether Mike Montgomery or Will Smith was the right choice for a call-up. Mike Montgomery is the right choice at this moment. He appears to be starting to strike out a few more batters. He’s inducing more grounders than flyballs on the season. And, potentially most importantly, he’s been with Omaha long enough to learn a few things. I feel like the coaching staff with the Royals could help him a bit in his progression, as would seeing stronger batters and experiencing the life of a big league starter.

Some of these reasons may seem trivial or tenuous. I understand that. I just think we’ve been riding the same old pitching merry-go-round for long enough. It’s time to try something new and see how that works.

Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi should be that something new.

They used to say that the All-Star Game itself was a chance to see players from the other league that would otherwise only match up in the World Series. With interleague play, that aspect has diminished. In the Futures Game, though, fans can see prospects they’ve likely never seen in person.

Last season, the Royals showcased their Omaha and Northwest Arkansas rosters after a home game, and for me, who can’t always travel to the minor league affiliates (in fact I’ve yet to make it to Omaha or Springdale – but I’m working on it), it was a chance to see Mike Montgomery, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers in person for the first time on the field. It’s the same situation with the All-Star Futures Game.

With that in mind, I want to take a shot at guessing who will land on the roster for the Royals. Futures Game rosters are split into World and U.S. teams and every team gets a representative (just like the big leagues All-Star Game).

Last season, the Royals were represented by Kelvin Herrera and Myers.

This year’s candidates:

Wil Myers

By this point, what else is there to say about Myers’s season? He was mashing in Double A and he’s still socking the ball in Triple A. It doesn’t seem as if there’s a practice of non-repeat participants but that or a big league call up would be the only things preventing him from being the big name in the game. He was among the best young hitting prospects in baseball before the year. Now he’s the next big bat with callup speculation surrounding him.

Jake Odorizzi

Like Myers, questions of when Odorizzi will be called up have been swirling since he tore through Double A and impressed right away in Omaha. Rosters are generally filled with A ball and Double A players, but many Triple A players will make it in and Odorizzi has been strong and consistent all season. He’s also a name, having been ranked highly in prospect countdowns even back when he was in the Brewers organization. He’s earned the opportunity if they come calling.

Yordano Ventura

Ventura’s drawn attention since before the 2011 season, gaining praise for his high velocity and dominating performance. He was a Carolina League All Star after posting a 3.10 ERA in 61 innings for Wilmington. He’s struck out 78 batters in that span which is the sort of number that catches a lot of attention in these sorts of exhibitions. If Myers is part of the U.S. team, Ventura could jump ahead of Odorizzi as part of the World team. He has the mix of raving scouting reports, a name with some buzz connected to it, and current performance to make the team.

Sugar Ray Marimon

Marimon doesn’t have the same prospect luster that the others have, but he had a good 2011 (that was cut short by rotator cuff issues) and he’s built on it at the High A level. Like Ventura, Marimon was part of the Carolina League All-Star Game after a 2.12 ERA in 68 innings. He doesn’t have the same stuff or strikeout numbers as Ventura, so he’s a longshot to get into the game.

Jorge Bonifacio

Every year when prospect rankings come out, there’s usually one guy who everyone pegs as their big riser. Bonifacio is that guy. He’s rewarded the experts with a fine season in Low A Kane County, leading the team in OPS (and the Cougars have been hitting well as a team all year). He’s 19 years old as of two weeks ago and is showing promises of a bright future. If the roster construction dictates an outfielder on the World side, Bonifacio would be a good fit. He’s shown pretty good plate discipline by the numbers, walking a career high 7.8% of the time and cutting his strikeout rate down to 16.6% after a 36% rate in 2010 in the Arizona’s Rookie League and striking out 22.5% of the time in short season Burlington last year. The skills look to be there and he has some buzz but it may be a year early for Bonifacio.

Unlike other All-Star Games, the rosters for the Futures Game are selected by Baseball America, Major League Baseball and the 30 teams – so the status of a prospect matters as much as their performance. For that reason, fine seasons by John Whittleman in Northwest Arkansas or Edwin Carl in Low A just don’t get noticed because neither are considered impact prospects.

Wil Myers - looking to the future. Photo: Minda Haas

My guess is that Wil Myers will be named to the U.S. team. He’s just hitting too well to keep him from being a part of the exhibition. Some have suggested that the Royals are leaving Myers in Omaha to allow him to take part in the the Futures Game in front of the hometown crowd. Even if that’s the case and it’s a consideration, it can’t be much more than a small percentage of consideration. That’s my take, anyway. It’s all rendered moot if the Royals go for it and call him up.

Along with Myers, I think Ventura will be invited to take part. He can regularly hit triple digits and when he’s on, he dominates. He was among the top ten Royals prospects on many preseason lists coming into the season, so the hype is with him too. Odorizzi definitely has a case, but my guess is that those selecting rosters will try to diversify it a bit.

The Royals are likely to have two representatives no matter how they line up. All five players above have strong cases to make the team so even if Odorizzi and Myers get called up, other candidates are available to be step in.

The game itself is scheduled at 4 p.m. CST on July 8th.

Going into 2011, the Royals had a slew of high-profile arms in their system. Baseball America placed five pitchers within their top 100 rankings.

Danny Duffy reached the majors and mostly struggled, came out in 2012 and looked impressive. Then a UCL tear ended his season. He just underwent successful Tommy John surgery himself. Mike Montgomery, lauded as the top prospect in the system before 2012 by Baseball America, has had a handful of exciting starts, but mostly has had the same command and control issues that plagued him last season. Jake Odorizzi has made an impression in Triple A and has jumped in front of the group as the best pitching prospect anywhere near the majors. Chris Dwyer has struggled since reaching Double A and is running out of time.

All four, along with Lamb, were top 100 prospects. Lamb, at #18, was considered the best.

There hasn’t been any indication of what level Lamb may end up at to start his rehab pitching, but he’ll probably toil in lower levels to get back to game speed with a shot at a couple of Double A starts at the end of the year. Perhaps if things go well enough, he might see a stop in Triple A, which would set him up nicely to return to that level next spring with an opportunity to make his way to Kansas City in mid-season.

It all depends on his elbow and how he’s able to regain his strength.

Lamb never relied on high velocity to be effective, though he can work in the low-90s with his fastball. His best weapon is hitting spots with his fastball. He’s a tough, smart pitcher who had control of his secondary pitches early in 2011 and looked like he might reach Omaha by season’s end.

So if he arm strength is there and the stuff returns, it’s not out of the question to see him in Triple A. It’s just unlikely.

Often, a pitcher still needs a lot of time to get back to full speed, though rehab programs and recovery times are making that regrouping window smaller and smaller in many cases. Every injury is different, so it’s not fair to hold Lamb to the standard of Stephen Strasburg, who returned to the big leagues just over a year after having Tommy John surgery. The Royals also had enough cause to hold Lamb back since he wasn’t automatic for Triple A and the Royals weren’t looking for him to contribute at the major league level this soon either.

Lamb was a trainee with Jaeger Sports, and I’m sure he’s adopted much of their long toss teachings to get back in shape. The additional arm strength may even add some zip to his fastball and help his endurance as he returns. We’ll have to see as he makes his way back and gets into games.

We have to wait on Duffy. Dwyer may never be more than a reliever, if that. Montgomery will still probably be up this year, but who knows how well he’ll be able to do. Odorizzi is the best of the bunch (thankfully). But Odorizzi alone won’t be enough when the organization ends up sniffing contention again. John Lamb would be a fine complement – so hopefully all goes well starting next month.

Feb 29, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

A five-run top of the first inning propelled Omaha over Iowa, 9-4. Salvador Perez again caught all nine innings. Perez and Tony Abreu (4-5 in the order) combined to go 5-for-9 with six RBIs.

Jake Odorizzi started and allowed two runs on four hits over 5.1 innings. He struck out seven in approving to 4-0 with the Storm Chasers. Problem was, he needed 95 pitches to get that far.

NW Arkansas was pounded by Tulsa, 10-2. A seven-run 6th inning did in the Naturals. Ryan Dennick allowed all seven runs in that inning and only recorded two outs. Every Naturals starter had one hit except Carlo Testa.

Wilmington and Salem were rained out on Tuesday night. They will play a doubleheader on Wednesday night beginning at 5:05pm ET.

Kane County held off a late rally by Quad Cities, as they won 7-5. The River Bandits brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the 9th inning but Malcom Culver finally finished them off to pick up his second save.

Kellen Moen picked up the victory, as he allowed just one run on three hits over six innings. The offense collected 12 hits, as both Jorge Bonifacio (2-for-4) and Lane Adams (2-for-4) hit homeruns. Murray Watts went 3-for-4 in the win.

How will Kansas City greet Zack Greinke Tuesday when he returns to Kauffman Stadium for the first time since being traded. Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

At this point many probably feel the Brewers got the better of the deal since they made the postseason with Zack and were two wins from the World Series last fall. Another reason Royals fans feel like the trade didn’t work out is because Betancourt was brought back this past offseason. It also doesn’t help that since the trade Greinke’s 23-8 during the last two seasons. During those two seasons Kansas City could’ve used a number one starter.

Saying his time in the city of fountains was up and down is an understatement because he only had two seasons with a winning record, one .500 season, lost 17-games in 2005 and dealt with a social anxiety disorder during his time in KC. As for the bright spots he did strikeout 15 Indians on August 25, 2009 which broke the team’s strikeout in a game record, previously held by Mark Gubicza.

His crowning achievement was winning the 2009 Cy Young award with a 16-8 record and 2.16 ERA for a team way removed from the postseason. That season he represented the Royals in the All-Star Game in St. Louis striking out two of the three hitters faced.

How will the crowd react Tuesday night? I expect it to be a mixture of cheers and boos when he takes the mound likely in a navy blue Brewers jersey. Royals fans never got to say goodbye and with Zack being a free agent this winter I think some people are holding out hope he returns since he and his wife still own a home in Kansas City.

When I heard that he was scheduled to pitch during this brief homestand there was no doubt that I’d drive down from Omaha to see the “return” of the former hero. I was there for the wins and losses in addition to the night where he toyed with Cleveland, I won’t boo but it will be bittersweet seeing him in another uniform.

Maybe if he’d stayed KC they’d be further in the “process” than they are now but there would also be no Alcides at short or No Odorizzi, no Cain (who could still contribute if he can stay healthy), no Jeffress (who might get back to KC at some point). In addition who knows if Greinke becomes the guy he is right now, the one who is nearly unbeatable at Miller Park and 7-2 this season. It’s possible that if he remains might of continued had he not got the change of scenery due to the struggles of 2010.

So if you’re at the K on Tuesday, it’s understandable if you root for the Royals while remembering the good times we had with number 23 throwing for Kansas City. However once Zack throws his first pitch to Alex Gordon your emotions might change a bit.

Myers ripped a line drive over the left field fence.

Wil Myers - looking to the future. Photo: Minda Haas

In 22 games and 89 plate appearances in Omaha, Myers has convinced many (including myself) that he’s ready for the big leagues. He has eight homers, 15 extra base hits. He’s carrying a .325/.371/.723 line in Omaha and .336/.398/.728 when you combine that with his time in Northwest Arkansas. He’s hit 40 extra base hits – and it’s June 9th.

After a stellar offseason that included a standout performance in the Arizona Fall League, the struggles of 2011 are behind him. He’s not fighting fluke injuries like last year, he’s a year older and he’s displaying power that scouts felt he was capable of, but weren’t sure when it would manifest.

Wil Myers is ready for the Kansas City Royals, but the Kansas City Royals may not be ready for him. Yet.

It’s frustrating to see a player roll over competition like Myers has done while the big league team struggles to get more than three runs many nights. Fans clamor for a call up of the new big name on the scene and get upset when it doesn’t happen. I get the frustration, but in the big picture, here are two factors in play that are keeping Myers in Omaha:

1. Where to play him?

While Myers has dabbled in center field a bit at both levels this year, he’s only been a professional outfielder for about 18 months after being drafted as a catcher. He’s by no means a budding everyday center fielder. He could hold his own I’m sure, but he’s much more suited for right field, which is currently patrolled by Jeff Francoeur and his offseason contract extension.

Francoeur is a Royal through next season unless they happen to trade him, which would be an option that likely won’t materialize until closer to the trade deadline in July. The Royals seem intent to keep trotting Jarrod Dyson out nearly every day, Alex Gordon isn’t going to sit and Francoeur’s not going to be a part-time player. When Myers gets up, it’ll be to play everyday. They could put him in center, but it might be an adventure. This isn’t as big an issue as:

2. Myers’s potential Super Two status:

Baseball’s arbitration system is part of the Royals considerations. Typically, a player becomes eligible for arbitration after three seasons. Until that point, they make around the league minimum, which is handy for teams who have solid young players but who don’t have to commit much of their payroll to them right away.

If a player plays 172 days in the big leagues, it’s considered a year of service time. There are usually around 183-186 days within a baseball season, so often, a team will keep a player in the minors before purchasing their contract and promoting them to the big leagues. That allows the team to have full control of their rights for a full six years plus the time they accrue in that first year. For instance, Eric Hosmer debuted on May 6 last season. He built up 146 days of service time, so the Royals have his rights for the rest of this year and for five more full years after.

That kind of clever timing really benefits a team, so to keep ownership from manipulating things too far in their advantage, baseball recognizes some players as Super Two players which is defined in the CBA as a player with between 2 years, 86 days of service time and three years of service time. The top 22% of players in service time within that group qualify for arbitration, meaning they have two years around the league minimum, but they usually get a good raise in their third year. Essentially, it gives that player four years of arbitration rather than three.

For a small market team, that could mean a lot. In the Royals case, they’ll have Eric Hosmer almost certainly as a Super Two player after next season and Mike Moustakas may be in there as well. If Wil Myers fell into that category, contracts start adding up quickly. Consider players like Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. All three were Super Two players and Pence’s salary jump from $439K in his second season to $3.5 million was the smallest jump of the trio. Howard and Fielder saw their first year of arbitration pay out at $7 million and $10 million respectively. Once that first arbitration number is set, it usually doesn’t go down, so the Royals could be on the hook for millions more than if they’d waited.

For what it’s worth, Myers could be called up today and might sneak outside the top 22% and not qualify for Super Two status, but the only period that feels safe would be mid-to-late July to keep Myers under the two years, 86 days threshold. There’s never a firm date, since Super Two status is relative to other players within that class, so it’s a bit of guessing. July should be safe, though.

Fans are going to blame David Glass and hurl the typical vitriol at him as being cheap or doing things the Wal-Mart way, but it’s prudent for a team that simply won’t allow their payroll to balloon to the point where they have no flexibility. Would Wil Myers be enough to propel the Royals to the playoffs in 2012? It’s pretty likely that that wouldn’t be the case, so for the sake of perhaps five more wins this season, the Royals would sacrifice millions down the road – millions that could go towards signing a starting pitcher during free agency or which could be applied to a contract extension. That’s just not worth it in the big picture.

In that same game in which Myers hit the grand slam off Oswalt, Everett Teaford made two innings of a rehab start. That’s usually not big news, but on this night, the player who relieved him stood out.

Jake Odorizzi stepped in and threw 6.2 innings, allowing five hits and one run. He struck out ten.

Jake Odorizzi. Photo: Minda Haas

In 28.1 innings in Triple A, Odorizzi has great numbers. His ERA sits at a sparkling 2.22, his strikeout (8.6 K/9) and walkrate (2.9 BB/9) look good, and while he’s given up some base hits, they haven’t translated into runs. In 66.1 innings in the minors across Double and Triple A, Odorizzi has a 2.85 ERA and nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

He’s vaulted ahead of Mike Montgomery as the team’s top pitching prospect, and just 22, he’s close to being ready for his debut.

The same Super Two considerations apply to Odorizzi as to Myers and pitchers can get pricey in a hurry as well. Last year, he rolled through Wilmington and was promoted mid-season to Northwest Arkansas and struggled. There were concerns he’d run into similar issues this year with another mid-season promotion, but that hasn’t happened yet (and hopefully won’t), but another jump to the big leagues may be getting too quick with him. The Royals are a franchise that has said they’d rather be too late on a prospect than too early, so they’ll exercise caution with Odorizzi.

That’s not to say that Odorizzi won’t see Kansas City this year. If nothing else, he’s a great candidate for a September callup if he’s not up sooner. It’s also possible that Odorizzi could be the next pitcher to get called up. The Royals weren’t shy about bringing Danny Duffy to the majors last year when he looked ready.

Now, with all of that in consideration, my hunch is that the Royals feel alright about their odds in the Super Two gamble. I tweeted a few days ago that I think Myers makes it up after this round of interleague play. At a certain point, they just can’t fight it. Only Josh Hamilton has more home runs in professional baseball than Myers right now.

Odorizzi is a different story. I think Kansas City wants to see a couple more starts from him before moving him to the big leagues. Jonathan Sanchez is close to returning, which clogs up the rotation and Teaford will be back soon. Maybe Teaford is optioned back to Omaha right after being activated, but if Felipe Paulino ends up on the DL, the Royals may want both arms up. It’s just more complicated, and the Royals won’t help themselves by calling up Odorizzi for one start then shuttling him back down. When he’s up, he should be here to stay.

Everett Teaford. Photo: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Omaha got the best of Round Rock and Major League veteran Roy Oswalt, 7-2. In his second start since signing with the Texas Rangers, Oswalt allowed five runs on six hits over four innings. All five runs came in the bottom of the 3rd inning, four coming on Wil Myers‘ grand slam (his 8th homerun in Triple-A).

It was a KC Royals rehab game on Thursday night. Everett Teaford started and allowed one run (on a solo homerun) over two innings. He allowed two hits while striking out two. Chris Getz led off and played second base. He went 1-for-2 with a run scored and a walk. Salvador Perez DH’ed and went 2-for-4, with a double and a strikeout.

Jake Odorizzi picked up the win, as he allowed just one run on five hits and two walks over 6.2 innings. He struck out ten (97 pitches, 68 for strikes). He did however leave the game with the bases loaded, but Tommy Hottovy threw just two pitches to escape and close out the victory.

NW Arkansas walked off against Arkansas, 6-5 in ten innings. With runners at second and third base and two outs, Yem Prades delivered the game winner, a ground ball to third base. He went 3-for-6 with two runs scored. The game headed to extra innings after the Travelers tied the game at 5-5 in the top of the 9th inning.

The game was tied at 4-4 after the 5th inning before the Naturals tied the game in the bottom of the 8th inning on a Rey Navarro RBI single. The Naturals had 13 hits, with Christian Colon and Paulo Orlando collecting two of them.

After Chris Dwyer struggled yet again (89 pitches over just four innings), Buddy Baumann came on in relief and did not allow a hit or walk over four scoreless innings.

(more…) ]]> http://kingsofkauffman.com/2012/06/07/royals-june-7th-minors-recap/feed/ 0 http://kingsofkauffman.com/2012/06/06/2012-kc-royals-vs-the-1990-dallas-cowboys-tale-of-the-missing-piece/ http://kingsofkauffman.com/2012/06/06/2012-kc-royals-vs-the-1990-dallas-cowboys-tale-of-the-missing-piece/#comments Wed, 06 Jun 2012 22:15:10 +0000 Alan Barrington http://kingsofkauffman.com/?p=13428 A changing of the guard had taken place.  The team had a new General Manager, a new Director of Personnel, and a new Coach.  The philosophy of the organization had evolved away from using old veterans to young talented new comers with lots of potential.  Several of the new young athletes had surfaced in the previous season, but their sophomore year on the field proved to be challenging for the team.  (See Sophomore Jinx.)

The team experienced a slump that extended over half the season and they lost more than 75% of their games during this stretch.  For all their talent, it seemed that one major piece was missing for most of the year.  By the end of a long and frustrating season, the team was finally coming together and it was only due to injuries to a key player that they didn’t finish on a winning streak.

Pitcher Luke Hochevar and catcher Humberto Quintero - representing two positions where a potential missing piece could emerge. (Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

Could the description above fit the 2012 Kansas City Royals?  It’s close.  Over the past few years the Royals have experienced a changing of the guard at all levels from the field to the front office.  They’ve transitioned from a team that plugged holes with washed up veterans with nowhere else to play, to a team of young upstarts low on experience but high on potential.  The young players have shown flashes of their talent and gave us a glimpse of what they could accomplish in 2011, but have been mired in several slumps caused by injuries and growing pains, and a lack of a strong starting pitching rotation in 2012.  The first paragraph might be referring to the 2012 Kansas City Royals, but it’s a more accurate description of the 1990 Dallas Cowboys.

In 1990, the Dallas Cowboys introduced the sports world to a trio of extremely talented players who became commonly referred to as “The Triplets.”  Michael Irvin, a wide receiver, was drafted in the first round of 1988.  Troy Aikman, quarterback (you remember him – the guy who hawks buffalo wings for a living now), was drafted in the first round of 1989.  Both players started the season and were featured throughout by the Dallas Cowboys.  But it wasn’t until 1990 first round draft pick Emmitt Smith, running back (and the NFL’s future all-time leading rusher), took the field in October following a long holdout with a 121 yard rushing performance that the team finally began to fulfill its promise.

Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer - two of the "found" pieces. (Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

In my opinion, the Dallas Cowboys of 1990 make a good comparison to the 2012 Kansas City Royals.  Both teams changed coaches, executives and philosophies from previous seasons.  Both teams had introduced a few of it’s young studs the previous year.  The Cowboys had Irvin and Aikman, the Royals have Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas (I’d like to put Salvador Perez in this group too, but I’ll hold off until I see his performance when he returns from his knee injury.)  Both teams slumped out of the gate – the Cowboys lost 75% of their games between September 16 and November 11.  The Royals notoriously lost 12 in a row in April.

Then came Emmitt Smith, the missing piece of the puzzle for the Cowboys.  By November 18, 1990, Emmitt had firmly established himself and the Cowboys rattled off four consecutive wins and were within one victory in their final two games (or a single loss by the Saints) of making the playoffs.  Then Troy Aikman separated his shoulder and everything went down the toilet – at least for 1990.  But good things, actually VERY good things were to come for the Cowboys over the next few seasons.

It’s difficult to say exactly what the missing piece might be for the Royals.  The easiest answer is that the Royals are missing a couple of quality starting pitchers.  But what if having Salvador Perez behind the plate to call different pitches on the night of April 11 in Oakland would have prevented Jonathan Broxton’s nightmare-inducing 12^th inning meltdown (that still haunts my dreams to this day) and could have changed the course of this season?  What if this painful loss hadn’t kick-started an avalanche of bad luck and lost confidence that took a month to overcome?  What if Salvador Perez is the missing piece?

I had a chance to watch Lorenzo Cain play in Surprise this Spring before he was injured and he was quite impressive.  I think he could have made an impact for us if he had been on the field this year, and if you think Jarrod Dyson is the answer in Center, you’re kidding yourself.  Maybe Cain is the missing piece, but probably not.

Could Wil Myers be the missing piece? (Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE)

And what about the looming presence of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi in Omaha?  Could they make an appearance this year, establish themselves, and then help take the Royals to the playoff promised land next year and beyond?  What if Mike Montgomery figures it out?  (I have my doubts.  Serious doubts.)  What if the Royals packaged Cheslor Cuthbert and Yordano Ventura in a trade and picked up a #1 pitcher?  (I don’t want to trade these guys, I’m just speculating on what could happen.)  You never know what might transpire to supply the final piece of the puzzle and ultimately push the Royals over the top.

In 1989, the Cowboys record was 1-15.  The next year, when all three Triplets appeared on the field at the same time they were 7-9 and probably only missed the playoffs due to an injury to Aikman.  In 1991 they were 11-5 and reached the playoffs.   In 1992 they were 13-3 and began their Super Bowl run with victories in 1992, 1993, and 1995.

Is it really that much of a stretch to see the Royals add a missing piece or two and playing competitive baseball in the second half of this year?  Am I dreaming to think the Royals can make the playoffs in 2013?  Would you commit me to a mental hospital if I said the Royals could be World Series bound in 2014?

Yogi Berra, "It's deja vu all over again."

Picture yourself in 1990, reading a Cowboy’s website (if there had been such a thing) and ask yourself the same questions.  Would it have been realistic to expect a 1-15 team to be competitive the next season, to reach the playoffs the following year, and to begin an unprecedented Super Bowl run after that?  You probably would have called the writer crazy and delusional.  In hindsight we know this was the beginning of one of the greatest football dynasties ever.  (It’s difficult for me to type these words considering my all consuming hatred of the Cowboys.)  But few, if any, could have realized this in 1990.

I don’t know exactly what the future holds for the Royals, but I believe they may be just a couple of missing pieces away from becoming the team we’ve all dreamed about.  The Cowboys proved it can be done, it’s not just a pipe dream, and I know it can happen again.  I believe it’s possible because as I learned in school – history has a way of repeating itself.  And as Yogi Berra once famously said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

In our third episode of the Kansas City Baseball Vault, we had the pleasure to speak with legendary groundskeeper George Toma. Toma shared stories of working the grounds at Municipal Stadium when the A’s were in Kansas City, working with Charlie Finley and an incident with monkeys let loose in the ballpark. No, really.

We also got to talk with John Sadak (@johnsadak) the voice of the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sadak discussed the progress of Jason Adam, Yordano Ventura, Cheslor Cuthbert and gave us his insight into the Royals High A minor league affiliate.

This episode also featured a rant from Troy Olsen regarding the reaction to the Will Smith start on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Chris Kamler, of course, egged him on. We also covered the plight of Johnny Giavotella, Eric Hosmer‘s continuing slump and other Royals-related topics.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Our intrepid reporter, Fake Ned, also known as Chris Kamler, spent last weekend in Omaha with the Storm Chasers. We present to you a short show compiled of interviews with members of the Storm Chasers staff. You’ll hear an interview with Martie Cordero, the GM of the Chasers about Werner Park and what a great option it is for a short summer trip.

We also talked to Park Hill South alum Tommy Hottovy about his tour with the Royals earlier this year and some advise he has for Danny Duffy. Finally, we ended with some post-game sound after Jake Odorizzi‘s AAA debut. We talk with Jake and his manager Mike Jirschele.

Don’t forget the Royalman Report is on every Sunday at 7 and catch our new show, The Kansas City Baseball Vault on ESPN 1510 AM Thursday’s at 6.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch in his Triple A debut. Photo: Minda Haas - mindahaas.net

He held his own in 6.2 innings, striking out four and walking just one. Nine hits against him resulted in three Rainier runs, but Odorizzi looked good from most reports. In throwing 95 pitches, 68 went for strikes. He gave up one home run, leaving the ball up to Carlos Peguero in the second inning. A heavy wind was blowing out to left at Werner Park, so the mistake ended up over the wall.

Chris Kamler of the Royalman Report was out at the park and said Odorizzi was  working with a 95 mph fastball and two different breaking pitches, with one being referred to as “Uncle Charlie” by Storm Chasers announcer Mark Nasser. Odorizzi stated that he could tell the difference between Double A and Triple A, but that the jump from High A to Double A was a bigger jump.

Wil Myers was the other big call up this week and he’s adjusted to Omaha quite well so far. In two games, he’s gotten five hits in nine at bats. Last night, he went 3-4 and fell a homer short of the cycle and drove in a run. I think he’s going to be just fine at this level.

We talked to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus about both top prospects on the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Thursday. You can hear his take on the two players here.

We also talked with former Kansas City Athletic Joe Rudi. The three time All Star and Gold Glove winner talked about coming up through the minors, dealing with Charlie Finley, and world championships.

Jeff Logan discussed upcoming events from the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society, including the monthly meeting this May 24 at the Westport Flea Market and the upcoming Kansas City A’s reunion on June 8. We also gave away Kansas City T-Bones tickets to three lucky callers in our weekly trivia contest.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

In 2012 for Northwest Arkansas, he threw 38 innings and struck out 47, an 11.1 K/9. He only walked 2.4 batters per nine innings.

With a 3.32 ERA, Odorizzi showed the Royals what they need to see and moved him up to Triple A Omaha.

Jake Odorizzi. Photo: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Odorizzi was acquired from Milwaukee in December of 2010 in the Zack Greinke deal, coming over after Baseball America had already deemed him the Brewers number one prospect. Now, he’s leapfrogged Mike Montgomery to be the top pitching prospect in the Royals system.

He made a good first impression with the Royals last year, tearing through the Carolina League in similar fashion to how he handled the Texas League this year. Lots of strikeouts, not many walks. If Odorizzi could work more ground outs (he’s at 36% for 2012), he’d be an elite prospect. As it is, he’s still a very good one anyway. Kevin Goldstein puts his ceiling as a #3 starter with a shot to be a #2.

He’s a smart pitcher who can use any of four pitches at any time. His fastball hangs around 90-94 but can hit 95 or 96 mph according to Odorizzi. His curveball and changeup are effective weapons as well and his slider is developing.

What the Royals are hoping for is a quick adjustment to Triple A. Last year, in his first look at Double A action, Odorizzi struggled at first but finished respectably. His 4.72 ERA was disappointing, but his strikeout rate was still alright and he wasn’t walking many more batters than usual. Combining his 2011 and 2012 time in Double A, Odorizzi made 19 starts for 102.1 innings and 101/32 K/BB ratio is close to his career minor league ratio of 401/112 (3.58/1).

Odorizzi may have a shot to get into the big leagues this year, especially at the rate that the Royals pitchers have been falling to injury. They’ve also been active in using players’ option years to keep fresh arms in the big leagues. If Odorizzi impresses, he may look like a more favorable alternative than Vin Mazzaro, Luis Mendoza or others who may be in the rotation. After a handful of starts, if he’s doing well, the Royals may take a look in late July (Goldstein suggests it’s still too optimistic to see him in a month’s time) to see how he reacts to the big leagues. He’s likely to be added to the 40 man roster in September anyway, as he’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after this year if not, as pointed out by Bob Dutton so the Royals, in knowing they’ll add him later in the year, may figure they might as well see what he can do a couple months early.

For now, though, he has the Pacific Coast League to get ready for. The Storm Chasers are waiting until Friday to make a move to fit Odorizzi on the roster and he’s likely to make his Triple A debut at home against Tacoma after that transaction is finalized. Everett Teaford was the probable starter for Friday but with his call up back to Kansas City, it’s Odorizzi’s spot with the rest of the Omaha rotation still in place.

Just in case you’re wondering, if you’re a subscriber to MILB.tv, you can see any Storm Chasers game streaming live online.

You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

On tonight’s show, we’ll talk with Kevin Goldstein of ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus about such topics as the Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi promotions, Eric Hosmer, and other prospects. Kevin’s a great baseball commentator and shared his time with us back in November. Quite a bit has changed since then. You can follow Kevin at @Kevin_Goldstein on Twitter.

We also have former major league catcher Doc Edwards lined up as our second guest. Doc played for the Kansas City A’s from 1963 to 1965 and currently manages the San Angelo Colts in the United Baseball League. He’s supposedly going to call us from the dugout during a game, so maybe we’ll see if we can call a squeeze play during the show.

Just like last week, we plan to have a trivia question and a giveaway, so be sure to listen in. Last week, three listeners won free ticket packages to go see the Kansas City T-Bones. You like winning things, right?

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

May 07, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez (57) is relieved by manager Ned Yost (3) in the fourth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Today, I realized I can no longer do this.  I can’t be hopelessly optimistic about someone who has given me little in return to back up my optimism.  I was never a fan of the Luke Hochevar pick in the 2006 draft, but I sucked it up and tried to find a reason to like the pick and give my support for Hochevar.  First, let me state that Hochevar should have never been the 1st overall pick and because of his selection there, he is going to be the most scrutinized player from that draft.  It’s also hard to swallow that Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Tim Lincecum were all top ten picks that year as well, and were passed on.

While Hochevar hasn’t been bad every time out, what makes him so frustrating to watch, is the fact he is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game.  He’s had days of complete game shutouts and then he’ll turn around and have an outing like the home opener onslaught that a sold out crowd witnessed earlier this year at Kauffman Stadium.  A starter needs to be consistent, something Hochevar is not.  Yeah, Bruce Chen won’t dominate a line up but you can expect 6 innings and 2-3 runs every time he toes the rubber.  There’s peace of mind knowing what to expect from your starter on any given day.

That being said it really is time to at least scan around for other options to start in place of Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez.  I’m not sure how much longer their leash is, but it can’t be too long.  Sanchez and Hochevar combined have went past 5 innings only twice thus far this season.  Hochevar is now the 6th worst pitcher in MLB history according to ERA that includes pitchers with over 100 starts.  That’s an interesting piece of information that can be found here* along with the rest of the top, or should I say bottom, ten.  I tend to get a sick feeling in my stomach every time it’s Sanchez’s turn in the rotation.  I know 5 walks and 3 innings is very likely.  These two make watching the Royals a nauseating task.  Normally, I’m not this down on the Royals, but I hate seeing the starting pitching give these types of performances.

*It’s interesting to note Kyle Davies is right in front of Hochevar on this list.

Therefore, there may come a time relatively soon where a change has to be made.  Ryan Verdugo, Nate Adcock, and Everett Teaford are all guys I truly believe can give us a quality start just about every time out.  The most important things a starter can do is keep the team in the game and go deep in the game to preserve the bullpen arms throughout the season.  Jake Odorizzi is also an intriguing name that I’d love to see in Kansas City at some point during the season.

I really don’t like giving up on a player, but it appears as though Hochevar is not capable of overcoming his blow up inning more times than not.  I believe there is a lack of focus there, even though no one will come out and say that.  I’m sure he prepares himself very well and puts in the time and effort, but there is something with the mental side of his game that is just not adding up.  A guy with the repertoire of pitches that Hochevar sports should not be nearly this inconsistent and should be a top of the rotation starter.  It’s just very frustrating to continue to watch him and anticipate his blow up inning.

All I’m hoping for is this doesn’t continue.  Whether Hochevar and Sanchez figure out a few things and can pitch deeper into a game or Ned Yost finally makes a move and replaces one or both of them with a few candidates I mentioned earlier, something will need to change.  The starting pitching is the weak spot of the team but that doesn’t mean you can’t make changes to try and produce different outcomes.  These two are certainly not cutting it.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

April was a good month for a lot of the higher profile prospects and some less-touted players had strong performances. That’s what we’ll look at today.

Omaha Storm Chasers (17-8)

Hitter of the Month: Tony Abreu

Abreu put up a .340/.364/.491 line and drove in 17 runs. He scattered extra base hits all month, with a pair of triples and homers and six doubles. He could be an option if the Royals find themselves facing an injury at the big league level. He’s played exclusively at shortstop (save one game at DH) but he could play any infield position if necessary.

Pitcher of the Month: Nathan Adcock

In his first appearance of 2012 at the big league level, Adcock stepped in for Bruce Chen after a rough day and continued solid pitching that started in Omaha. Across four starts for the Storm Chasers, he covered 26.1 innings and gave up just four runs. He’s been difficult to hit but he hasn’t struck many batters out. His career minor league strikeout rate is 7.1 K/9 but he’s only struck out 4.8 per nine innings in one month. He held his own at the big league level as a Rule 5 pick last year so he could be a good emergency starter/long relief option, though he may not be someone with a high ceiling. That’s okay. There’s always a spot somewhere for an organizational warrior.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (12-12)

Hitter of the Month: Wil Myers

It’s great news to have Wil Myers in the running for a monthly recognition considering the way his 2011 started. After a strong fall league performance, Myers is keeping the momentum going and then some. He’s a slugging machine and has been improving on already strong numbers. In his first 11 games, Myers struck out 18 times. In his last ten he’s only struck out seven. He has 14 extra base hits – eight doubles and six homers. Last year, he had eight homers all season in Double A. If he keeps up this pace, I’d be very surprised to see him anywhere but Omaha come mid-June if not sooner. He’s been playing some center field too, and if he can adjust to a more demanding outfield position defensively, he’ll be even more valuable as a prospect.

Pitcher of the Month: Jake Odorizzi

Another big prospect name. Odorizzi gets this nod because he’s held back by one bad outing. On April 12 he threw just .2 innings and gave up four runs. Without that start, though, his ERA would stand at 2.74. Even at his 4.18 ERA with the bad game, his FIP is a solid 2.47. He hasn’t allowed many runners – he only has a 1.14 WHIP – but they’ve scored at a high rate. Only 55.6% have been stranded. As long as Odorizzi is avoiding allowing runners, the innings will climb and the runs against will even out and he’ll look a lot better on paper. He’s struck out 29 in 23.2 innings.

Wilmington Blue Rocks (10-13)

Hitter of the Month: Angel Franco

Franco has been hanging around the Royals system for a few years after signing in 2006. His career line to this point sits at .271/.339/.353 but in limited time in High A, he’s hitting a strong .375/.453/.446 in 18 games. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but he’s been a base-stealing threat at every level. So far this year, he’s walking more than he has typically and striking out less as well. He’s getting to an age where he can fill out and mature and if he keeps it up, could be a sleeper prospect going forward.

Pitcher of the Month: Jason Adam

His last start wasn’t great (six earned runs in four innings) but Jason Adam’s overall numbers still look great. In five starts, he threw 26.2 innings, striking out 25 and walking just eight. He’s impressed scouts and writers while pitching in a higher level in his second season of pro action. Control was a strong point last year in Kane County (2.2 BB/9) and so far it’s still a strong point (2.7 BB/9). He’s been striking out more batters per nine innings though, and has been inducing more ground balls than last year (54% vs. 45%). Adam has given up a hit 37% of the time when the ball is put into play, which suggests he may have been unlucky to this point if that regresses to the norm of around 30% historically. Those are fantastic signs for a young pitcher. Limiting walks + increased strikeout rate + increased ground ball rate is a recipe for potential breakout.

Kane County Cougars (11-14)

Hitter of the Month: Jorge Bonifacio

There have been many candidates for best hitter in Kane County. Lane Adams, Justin Trapp and Daniel Mateo are all hammering the ball right now. Bonifacio, though, gets the nod because he’s the most highly regarded of the group. Many picked him as a sleeper breakout candidate and he’s lived up to the acclaim. His .340/.415/.443 line is strong and his plate discipline has improved. In 2011 he walked 6.2% of the time. This year, he’s drawing a walk 10.8% of the time but it hasn’t caused him to get passive at the plate. He’s still ripped 32 hits.

Pitcher of the Month: Santiago Garrido

Garrido has been in the Royals organization since early 2007 and this is his first sign of success. So far he has a 4.87 career ERA and Kane County is his highest level of competition, but so far, he has a 0.84 ERA in 21.1 innings. He’s shown the ability to get ground balls (50% or better GB rate since 2009), but walks too many to be the real deal so far (4.2 BB/9 career). He’s worth keeping an eye on though just in case he’s put it all together.

The wacky Puffy Taco mascot of the San Antonio Missions AA Baseball team

The first thing you need to know about the Naturals’ road trip to San Antonio is that they were confronted with possibly the wackiest mascot in baseball.  Nuttier than the Flying Squirrel in Richmond, VA; loonier than the Lansing, MI Big Lug Lugnut; much cuter than Gnate the Sand Gnat of Savannah; and equally as crazy as the Sushi Rolls of Vancouver, Canada.  You’ll almost never see him on a list of the most off-the-wall minor league characters, but I’m smitten with the mascot of the San Antonio Mission’s (the AA affiliate of the San Diego Padres), the Puffy Taco and his trusty companion, Ballapeño.  And don’t forget their best friend H.E.Buddy, the grocery bag mascot (yes, grocery bag) from the dominant local grocery store chain H.E.B.

Once you get past the kitschy trappings of minor league baseball, they actually play some fun games that are meaningful – at least to the players and the fans of players with high potential that we expect to eventually see in the majors.   And that’s the reason you’re reading this story right now.

I wish I could give you a sunshine and roses report of the Naturals performance, but that wouldn’t be the truth.  So, what I’m going to do is offer you is my list of “takeaways” from the game, both good and bad.

Here’s my first takeaway, and you aren’t going to like it.  Will Myers was not impressive.  Not at all.  I only saw him play one game, but he looked completely lost at the plate and nothing like the guy who tore up the Arizona Fall League a few months ago.  In the first inning he struck out swinging on 3 pitches (and looked bad doing it) immediately after the first two batters of the game hit solid singles up the middle and we needed him to move the runners.  In his second at bat he popped straight up to the catcher.  He struck out again in another at bat.  The only hit he received in 5 at bats was against a pitcher who was on the ropes, following a long delay and a coach’s visit to the mound, he squirted a broken bat single over the second baseman’s head.  Not an impressive day’s work for Mr. Myers.

The Naturals Christian Colon waits for a pitch while Wil Myers looks on from the on deck circle. April 9, 2012 CREDIT: Alan Barrington

On the other hand, on this particular day Christian Colon looked every bit the player and leader the Royals selected him to be.  He was 4 for 4 at the plate, and every hit was a ringing line drive.  He turned two nearly identical outstanding defensive plays in the field, running hard to his right, backhanding a ground ball before it could escape into left field, and throwing back across his body to force a fast runner at second base.  When Tim Melville, the Naturals starting pitcher, threw five straight balls to begin the game, Colon didn’t wait to act.  He showed leadership on the field, called time out and went to the mound alone to calm Melville down.  It must have worked, Melville didn’t give up a run and only allowed 3 hits, 1 walk (the first batter of the game), and 6 strikeouts in 5 innings pitched.

Colon stole second, only his first stolen base of the season, but when I describe the play I think you’ll agree he needs to make more attempts.  After he stole second base, he stood up and I probably could have counted three Mississippi’s before the ball arrived from the catcher.  Colon got an absurd jump on the pitch and made the Mission’s battery look like they were chasing shadows.

One other thing about Christian Colon – Baseball Reference says he’s 6’ 1” tall.  I didn’t take a measuring tape onto the field, but he doesn’t look anything close to that in my opinion.  But if you think his size might indicate he isn’t tough, consider this – He was hit by a pitch, and I don’t think he made any attempt to move out of the way.  Christian ended the night reaching base five times in five at bats.  I love the toughness and the willingness to do anything necessary to get on base and give his team a chance to win.

The Naturals starting pitcher Tim Melville warms up prior to the game. April 9, 2012. CREDIT: Alan Barrington

Tim Melville started the game on the mound for the Naturals and I didn’t know much about him before the game.  But this week I learned he knows how to mix his pitches and can make the opposing hitters chase balls in the dirt.  Unfortunately, I didn’t find the radar gun readout in the stadium until late in the game (it was lost in the sea of advertising signs on the outfield wall), so I don’t know how fast he was throwing, but he was definitely fooling people and pulling the string on occassion.

I was very impressed with the defensive play of light hitting second baseman Sharlon Schoop.  He made a fantastic play moving hard toward the right field line, throwing himself into a headlong dive, and came up firing a bullet to nail the runner at first.  It was “Frank Whitesque” and the best defensive play of the night.  However, I wish I had positive comments about the rest of his game.  He wandered two far off second and was nearly picked off by a snap throw from the catcher.  (How embarrassing would that be to get picked off second by the catcher?)  He struck out on a ball that was nearly over his head which got the crowd excited and a few of the drunk Missions fans sitting near me taunted him with a few choice words on his walk back to the dugout.  I considered joining them.

A few more miscellaneous notes:

• Melville was replaced on the mound by Elisaul Pimentel.  Pimentel got rocked and only lasted 2/3 of an inning.
• Catcher Ryan Jenkins did a good job of going with a tough pitch and poking it up the middle for a base hit to drive in 2 runs.
• Third Baseman Kurt Mertins laid down a picture perfect sacrifice bunt to move two runners, then hustled down the line and beat the throw to first on an error to load the bases.
• Edinson Rincon let a ball play him in left field.  He ran in to field a ball that was about to land in front of him, thought of diving for it (I think he could have gotten to it if he had committed rather than hesitating), changed his mind and backed off.  The ball bounced past him, but he was able to get it back to the infield before the runner could advance to second.
• Some of the guys I really wanted to see didn’t make it into the game: Promising pitchers Chris Dwyer, Noel Arguelles, Jake Odorizzi, and catcher Ben Theriot.  And of course, pitcher John Lamb is still recovering from surgery so it will be a couple more months before anyone has a chance to see him play.

Noel Arguelles, the only Naturals player on the Royals 40 man major league roster. April 9, 2012 CREDIT: Alan Barrington

This team doesn’t appear to be full of superstars in-waiting as the Naturals of the past two years have been.  But there is talent here that the fans of Northwest Arkansas will enjoy watching this Summer, and in particular a pitching staff that has the ability to completely shut down the opposing team on any given night.  Maybe I’ll get lucky and see some of those guys take the mound the next time I get to see the Naturals play.

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Bret Saberhagen was drafted in the 19^th round, but performed so well in the minors that it only took him one year to get to the big league.  Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13^th round.  Dan Quisenberry wasn’t drafted at all and ended up leading the majors in saves five times.  (Can you believe that?)  All of these great players have something in common – they overcame relatively low expectations to become strong contributors in the major leagues.  You certainly know how much Sabes and Quiz have contributed to Royals history, and Pujols is already considered to be shoe-in for the Hall of Fame.

Have you considered the possibility the Royals could have a few low expectation players who may breakout and surprise all of us by forcing their way to Kansas City?  It doesn’t happen very often, and you never know when it will occur, but when it does it’s one of the most exciting things about baseball.

Greg Billo's performance demands attention (Kane County Chronicle)

Consider Greg Billo.  Greg was selected in the 28^th round of the 2008 draft as a 170 pound high school kid.  He toiled through a couple of short and rather undistinguished seasons as a pitcher on three different rookie league teams.  Then, in 2011 on the Kane County Cougers (A Team), he blossomed with an absurd 1.93 ERA, 119 strikeouts to 25 walks, and HR/9 of 0.4.  His SO/9 rate dropped a bit from 2010, but all his other metrics look strong for the pitcher many consider to have the best control in the Royals organization.

Billo has been a professional for 4 years now and he’s still learning and growing and adapting and making himself a better pitcher each season.  “I learned to keep the ball down (last year) and that was a big help for me,” said Billo, “and being able to throw my off-speed pitches for strikes made it so much easier to pitch.”  Billo also credits his improvement in 2011 to “a few mechanical changes and a lot of little tweaks,” made under the watchful eye and guidance of Cougars pitching coach Jim Brower.

Do you know who else pitched for the Kane County Cougars last year?  Yordano Ventura, considered to be about the 10^th best prospect in the Royals organization also started for Kane County.  Who do you think was the # 1 pitcher for the Cougars last year?  Well, it wasn’t Yordano.  Now I’m not saying Billo is going to end up as a better pitcher than Ventura and his 100 mph fastball or that he has more upside, or anything of the sort.  Yordano is a year younger with tons of potential and we all have very high hopes for him.  But, I am saying we shouldn’t count Billo out.  His improvement has been so great over the past year that I’m not sure any of us can possibly know for certain what his future holds.

Greg doesn’t have blazing stuff like many other Royals pitchers, but what he does possess is intelligence, and saavy, and a willingness to listen to the guidance of his coaches and commit to doing what is necessary to be successful.  Billo identifies Greg Maddux as a pitcher he’d like to emulate (not a bad choice) and if everything goes as planned, he expects to be pitching for the Naturals by mid-season of 2012.

MLB.com ran an article after the 2011 season and listed the minor league players for each club who had the best season by position.  They recognized Greg Billo as the right handed starting pitcher who had the best season of all Royals minor leaguers.  This includes a few names you might recognize in addition to Yordana Ventura.  Have you heard of Jake Odorizzi?  How about Luis Mendoza?  Billo impressed MLB last year, and if he impressed them, well…  the rest of us should probably be impressed too.

The Royals minor league system is full of outstanding talent that we may or may not eventually see in Kansas City.  Some of these guys will flame out, some will ultimately have a great future in the majors, and some could end up as trade bait for the Royals to attain some missing pieces.  As you know, one of the pieces the Royals are missing right now is a strong right handed starting pitcher.  Billo isn’t ready for this responsibility right now, but I think it’s safe to assume the Royals will have a similar need in the coming seasons.  I suggest we root for Greg Billo to continue to improve and force the Royals brass to consider him as a future candidate for this job.  Just ask Dan Quisenberry, you never know where impressive talent will come from.

Despite Tommy John surgery in 2011, Kevin Goldstein named John Lamb as one of his top 101 prospects in baseball. Photo: James Lamb

As you may know, Kevin Goldstein is one of the bigger names in online baseball commentary. In the wee small hours of the morning, he released his Top 101 overall prospects in baseball, listing five players from the Royals system:

• 19. Wil Myers
• 27. Bubba Starling
• 47. Jake Odorizzi
• 82. John Lamb
• 83. Cheslor Cuthbert

Conspicuously absent is Mike Montgomery.

When we talked to Goldstein on the Royalman Report in November, he’d listed Montgomery as a three star prospect and sixth among Royals prospects. At the time, it was a simple matter that Montgomery hadn’t pitched very well for his lowered ranking, but Goldstein conceded that the upside was still there, but the likelihood of Montgomery’s reaching that ceiling had lessened. (And it’s notable that Eric Hosmer wasn’t on Goldstein’s top 101 going into 2010, so it’s never a perfect list.)

This afternoon, Goldstein was on 610 Sports with Nick Wright and pointed out that Montgomery hasn’t been a great pitcher since the middle of 2010. The lefty had run over minor league batters to that point, but arm soreness put him on the disabled list twice. Then he struggled in 2011.

Even after a rough 2011 in Double A, Goldstein is big on Wil Myers, and despite Tommy John surgery, he likes John Lamb too. On 610, he also mentioned that Chris Dwyer is a prospect who could still be good.

Other mentions:

• Goldstein is a Lorenzo Cain fan and thinks his combination of speed, defense and decent offensive production could result in a season that could come close to what Melky Cabrera accomplished overall in 2011.
• Eric Hosmer could be even better this year than we expect. Goldstein mentioned he expects multiple All-Star appearances and MVP opportunities. He said .300 and 25+ homers is an annual possibility.
• For Goldstein, Mike Moustakas is the most interesting player coming into 2012. Last year, Moose made adjustments to hit better but the power wasn’t there. This year, the goal is to continue to hit with those adjustments in mind while adding the power back into his approach.

Follow Goldstein on Twitter – he has great information, and if you’re not 100% baseball-minded, he tosses in some pop culture commentary as well.

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Danny Duffy impressed last year as a non-roster invitee and was soon in the big leagues. Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals released their list of spring training non-roster invitees last week, and as usual the list is filled equally with promising young prospects and replacement level bargains. Many won’t make an impact on the 2012 Royals, but nonetheless it is an opportunity to impress the front office brass. A strong showing as a non-roster invitee can put a top prospect on the fast track.

Non-roster invitees are intriguing because they are all upside. Even established major leaguers who find themselves signed as non-roster invitees are promised nothing but an opportunity. There is nothing to lose, but everything to gain.

For instance, the Royals brought in 23 non-roster invitees in 2011, and only Tim Collins and Louis Coleman made the opening day roster. But they weren’t the only players who made an impression.

Fellow non-roster invitees Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and Luis Mendoza eventually played games for the Royals last year. Several other prospects, including Mike Montgomery, impressed as well.

So, you must be thinking, which non-roster invitees have the best chance to make an impact in 2012? How thoughtful of you to ask. I’ve put together my list, ranking each invitee from most to least likely to have an MLB impact this year. I’ll also give percentage odds for each player, in order to show which guys have earned the greatest share of my confidence in their ability to help this year’s Kansas City Royals.

What could be more scintillating than that?

Mike Montgomery – 85%

I’ve already given my thoughts on Montgomery here, so I’ll try to keep this short and sweet. Not only do I think the Royals need Montgomery to produce for the big league club this year, but I also think he almost surely will impress. I expect Montgomery to follow Danny Duffy’s 2011 trajectory and earn a major-league call-up sometime in May. Montgomery simply doesn’t need another full season in Omaha, and he possesses superior raw stuff to Duffy. It’s also important to remember that Duffy’s leapfrog of Montgomery last season was a notable shock. Montgomery remains the better prospect with the better stuff, and I think he’ll have a campaign that’s slightly better than Duffy’s 2011. And this is coming from a guy who thought Duffy positively impressed last season. Montgomery is all set to be a gem.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 60%

This is where the meaning of the word ‘impact’ becomes skewed a bit. I have no delusions of grandeur regarding Kouzmanoff. Although once a promising prospect, Kouz is essentially a replacement level player at this point (career .300 OBP). At the same time I think he has a fighter’s chance to make the 25 man roster (as a backup to Mike Moustakas at third base), and he very well may be the only person on this list who is able to make that claim.

In order to have an impact, a player actually has to suit up for the team. Whether through an inspired spring performance, injury, or inconsistency, I’m 60% confident that Kouzmanoff will play in 40 or more games for the Royals this season. If that becomes the case, then I am 95% confident that I will inevitably unleash a drunken, expletive-laden tirade against Kouzmanoff this summer when he is mired in a 0-21 spell and sporting a .285 OBP.

Wil Myers – 39%

Ok, hear me out here. Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and Lorenzo Cain will be the starting outfield for the opening day Royals, barring injury. The next best available options appear to be Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough.  Each of those guys has their merits, but none of them are Wil Myers.

Here’s a question for you: why can’t Myers be this year’s version of Eric Hosmer? Myers is 21 years old, or to put it a different way, the same age Hosmer was at the beginning of last season. Myers also played last season at Northwest Arkansas, the same level Hosmer reached in 2010 before being placed on the fast track.

Wil Myers played in the Futures game last year, and could potentially play for the Royals this year. Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Like Hosmer in 2010, Myers dominated in the subsequent Arizona Fall League. Sure, his numbers don’t stack up with Hosmer’s Double-A figures. But Myers had some extenuating circumstances. He suffered a nasty knee injury after a fluky spill at the beginning of the season, and struggled to regain his form afterwards. But like Hosmer, the physical tools are still there: the quick bat, the plate discipline, and the rocket arm have not gone anywhere. Plus, Myers has already played twice as many games at Double-A as Hosmer did. The Royals moved Myers from catcher so that he could progress quickly through the system, and with a strong spring, I think they’ll give him the same chance Hosmer did to shoot through the system like a meteor. Furthermore, after last season, Myers has something to prove. I expect to see him with the Royals by the end of the season, even if it’s just for a cup of coffee.

Max Ramirez – 29%

Here’s a guy who I have had trouble deciding on. He should probably be placed further down this list, since he is ostensibly behind Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena, and Manny Pina on the depth chart. But he is a career .867 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. And since he’s played 646 games in the minors over eight seasons, I’d venture to say that his offensive numbers aren’t a mirage built on small sample size. That .867 OPS is 100 points better than Pena’s minor league total, and 200 points over what Pina has produced thus far.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, I would not be overly shocked if the Royals cut bait with Pena and Ramirez emerges as Perez’ backup this season. Keep in mind that Perez is young and fresh, and may not need more than 30 games off behind the dish this season. Wouldn’t it be nice to finally have some pop and patience at the catcher position? Even if Ramirez is utilized primarily as a pinch hitter, I see some value there. Oh, and while writing this piece, I learned that Ramirez’ given first name is Maximiliano. So there’s also that to inspire confidence.

Irving Falu – 26%

I know what the most cynical and sarcastic of fans will say here: “whenever you can get a 28 year old career minor leaguer with a .696 career OPS into the lineup you’ve got to seize the opportunity.” I know that’s what you’re thinking because it was exactly what I first thought upon seeing Falu’s name among the non-roster invitees. But then I realized that the primary backup infielders will probably be some combination of Kouzmanoff, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Chris Getz, and I suddenly began reconsidering Falu’s candidacy in earnest. And there are some things to like about Falu.

For instance, did you know that he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts during his minor league career? Or that he has logged games at all three outfield spots, second base, shortstop, and third base? Or that 2011 was his best statistical season? I’m not saying he’s a lock to contribute or anything, but I think assuming he’s still with the organization, that he’ll be the first middle infielder recalled if there is an injury. If that’s not a ringing endorsement then I don’t know what is.

Chris Dwyer – 25%

Hey, I’m not saying I’m banking on it, but I would not be shocked to see Dwyer make a couple of starts for the Royals in 2012. After pitching four games for Northwest Arkansas in 2010, Dwyer remained in Double-A for the entirety of 2011. Although he struggled during the first half, Dwyer turned it on in the second half and actually out-produced highly touted prospect Jake Odorizzi while both were toiling for Northwest Arkansas. Dwyer also has more strikeouts than walks in his career, so the stuff is there. If the front office believes that the second half Dwyer is the real version, then he could be a fast riser this season.

Zach Miner – 20%

Sure he doesn’t strike out anybody, and he is still working his way back from a major injury in 2010. I get that. But looking at Miner with squinted eyes, I also see that Miner has a 25-20 career record in the major leagues to accompany his 4.24 cumulative ERA. Once you see the other pitchers on this list, and their career major league experience, you’ll see why Miner is so high up this list.

Will Smith – 16%

Smith would probably be above Dwyer on this list if my intuition hadn’t led me to believe Dwyer will have a breakout season. Smith, though, did plenty well for himself at Northwest Arkansas in 2011. Smith put up a 13-9 record and a 3.85 ERA in a full season of Double-A, and was probably the best pitcher on NWA’s staff. Also going for Smith is the fact that he’s already pitched (albeit poorly) in Triple-A while in the Angels system. There’s no reason that Smith should go back to Northwest Arkansas next year, which means that he will be among the pitchers in Omaha with the best chance to get a late season or injury-induced call-up. I’d say that’s makes him about a 16% chance to make an impact on the big league club.

Jake Odorizzi – 7%

Odorizzi is clearly a year away, and that is not a bad thing. He got roughed up a little bit in his introduction to Double-A last year after torching High-A Wilmington. Odorizzi won’t turn 22 until March, so another season spent between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha could still be constructive for one of the organization’s top young prospects. There is still an outside chance that

Tony Abreu – 6%

I’m just not seeing it with Abreu. Give me Falu every day of the week. Abreu can’t hit and doesn’t walk. He owns a career .279 OBP. He should be purely minor league filler. Major league service time alone places him above the other names on this list.

Greg Golson – 5%

The best thing Golson has going for him is his versatility. He’s played all three outfield positions in the minors and possesses a enough speed to make him dangerous on the base paths. Unfortunately, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Golson has been struck out a whopping 941 times in his minor league career, against just 207 walks. Myers, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough are simply better players than Golson and will get any call-up before him.

Cody Clark, Paulo Orlando, Tommy Hottovy, Francisley Bueno Julio Rodriguez – 0.00%

None of these guys has a chance to crack the big league roster in 2012. Frankly, their inclusion among the non-roster invitees seems a bit dubious. I’m not even going to sugarcoat it: when I saw Francisley Bueno’s name mentioned among the camp invites, I had no idea who he was. None at all. What is he doing at major league camp?

But I guess that’s the nature of non-roster invitees. There are no expectations. If Dayton Moore wants to bring in a guy whose name translates to “good”, then by all means he should be empowered to do so. And if Bueno somehow turns into Ricky Vaughn, then I will happily eat crow.

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