May 20, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) during an at bat against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t really want to talk about the Royals making Sam Deduno look like an ace, so I am leaving that to someone else.  For today I would like to talk about how things have been changing for several years in baseball.  Gone are the days when RBIs and Wins were the main factors in who won MVP and Cy Young awards.  Go look at Felix Hernandez and his 2010 Cy Young award with only 13 wins to see a case study of this phenomenon.  Hall Of Fame voting is likely to follow suit.  There is evidence of this change already occurring in internet HOFer and Posnanski favorite Bert Blyleven, who got elected after many years of waiting, and a ton of us internet nerds fighting for him and against Jack Morris.  I think former Royal Carlos Beltran may be one of the players to benefit from the internet as far as his chances to get into Cooperstown.

As I watched the Cardinals series I pulled up Beltran’s Baseball-Reference page just to reminisce and see how good he really has been.  By the time I was done perusing his career, I was convinced that he should be in the Hall of Fame once his career is over.  There are five different measures of a player that B-R lists that talk about HOF norms.  I will briefly cover each one and how Beltran ranks.  Three of them he would either be in or right on the line and the other two he comes up very short.

The three that are good are:

Hall of Fame Monitor – Gives points for hitting key milestones by year and career, like seasons where a player hits .300 or 30 HRs, things like that.  Carlos by this metric has 100 points which is exactly the cutoff for a likely HOFer.

Hall of Fame Standards – Similar to the last one, but focused entirely on career totals like a point for ever 200 extra base hits over 300 for example.  In this Beltran has 43 points and a likely HOFer has 50.

JAWS –  Uses career and peak WAR totals to match up by position.  Beltran is ranked as the 9th best center fielder of all time by this system, ahead of current HOFers like Andre Dawson and Kirby Puckett

The two where he lags are the traditional measures:

Black Ink – Gives points for seasons where a player led the league in things like HR, RBIs, and AVG, and then fewer points for leading in lesser regarded stats like games, walks, or runs.  Beltran has one black ink point for leading the league with 162 games in 2002, and black ink level for a HOFer averages 27 points, so he is a long way off.

Grey Ink – Is the same as black ink but focuses on finishing in the top ten rather than first.  Beltran fares better here at 87 points, but still well below an average HOFer of 144 points.

The two he does poorly in focuses a lot on traditional statistics that are the exact ones slowly being pushed out in favor of stats like WAR.  If you look at Beltran from the newer stats perspective he is much better.  Sure he didn’t lead the league in

May 28, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) throws a ball to a fan after the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. St. Louis won the game 4-1. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

things like HRs or RBIs, but he was good at those things and a premium defender at a premium defensive position.  He has over 8 career WAR from defense, and if you look at non-traditional “Ink” he also lead the league in offensive war in 2006 and finished in the top 10 five times.  In this he is similar to another player that the internet cognoscenti has pushed for, Tim Raines.  Another reason that these may shift is that there are more teams during all of Beltran’s career than those who played before teams like the Marlins, Rockies, Rays, and D-Backs existed, so it is harder than ever to lead the league in anything.

The last part of the argument for Beltran is that he does have a lot of recognition for being a great player throughout his career.  He has a Rookie of the Year, 7 All-Star games, MVP votes in 7 seasons (4th place highest finish), 3 gold gloves, and two silver sluggers.  He hits for average and power, has one of the best success rates on stolen bases of all time, plays great defense, and has 130 assists from the OF in his career.  That is a five-tool player who has collected 347 HRs and 306 SBs while hitting .283 so far over his career.  He should make The Hall in my opinion, and as the old guard leaves and new BBWAA voters start being populated by internet members like Rob Neyer and Buster Olney (they have to get to ten years of membership before they can vote for HOF), this sort of player will have a much better chance of making it in since these voters will value defense, OBP, and the other stats of the new generation.

Only one question remains for me, and that is which team will Beltran go in for.  He has played for the Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, and Cardinals.  He spent less than a season with Houston and San Francisco, so they are out.  His contract with St. Louis will be over after this year, so unless he is signed again this off-season he will have only spent two years with the Cards.  That leaves the Royals who he came up with, and the Mets sho signed him to his first big free agent contract.

Carlos spent at least part of 7 seasons in Kansas City and New York both.  He played in 795 games as a Royal and 839 with the Mets.  His best seasons came mostly for the Mets though, as they had him from age 28 through part of his 34 year old season.  That means he wracked up 24.7 WAR as a Royal and 31.2 as a Met, which is closer than I would have guessed.  It is likely that he goes in as a Met, and it is too bad he probably doesn’t remember KC as fondly as KC remembers him.  All that being said, it was fun to watch Beltran when he was here, and he will always be one of my favorites.

As you are undoubtedly aware, George Brett is the only player in the Royals Hall of Fame also enshrined in Cooperstown. I think a case can be made for a couple others but those are hinged on borderline players who probably should have never been elected. I’ll address those later. 

The idea here wasn’t just to see how many votes they received, but also, I wanted to compare their total to similar and lesser players on the same ballot. I had no doubts playing for the Royals was viewed as a negative in the writer’s eyes but I wanted to see by how much. It was quite a lot as it turned out.

Amos Otis – 1990

Otis didn’t receive a single vote despite being a five time All Star and one of the key contributors to the great Royals’ teams of the 1970’s. Were his 39.2 bWAR and 115 OPS+ Hall worthy? Of course not, but neither were the 15.1 bWAR and 74 OPS+ Bucky Dent posted, and Dent somehow received 3 votes. Personally speaking, I find this a far greater crime than Aaron Sele receiving 1 vote this year. Maury Wills (37.5 bWAR, 88 OPS+), in his 13^th year on the ballot, received 95 votes.

Steve Busby

Busby was ineligible for Cooperstown voting due to playing only parts of eight seasons. He actually only played three full seasons (1973-1975) so a valid argument could be made for his exclusion from the Royals HoF.

Paul Splittorff – 1990

Like Otis, Splittorff also failed to receive a vote. The only two players to receive votes with numbers comparable to Splitt’s (20.1 bWAR, 101 ERA+) were Jim Bibby (17.3 bWAR, 99 ERA+) and Mike Torrez (19.7 bWAR, 98 OPS+), and they both received only 1. In other words, nothing to see here.

Cookie Rojas – 1983

Rojas didn’t receive any votes either, but as his career numbers (6.7 bWAR, 83 OPS+) attest, he didn’t deserve any. I was actually surprised to learn that he didn’t post the worst stats on the ’83 ballot. That honor fell to Tommy Helms. Despite a 6.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+, Helms received 1 vote. Weird. I guess being the 1966 National League Rookie of the Year carried a lot of weight for one particular voter.

Dennis Leonard – 1992

Leonard was Jack Morris before being Jack Morris was cool. From 1976 to 1981 Leonard led the American League in starts, innings and wins. He also finished second to Nolan Ryan in strikeouts. Being the winningest pitcher of the late ‘70’s and early 80’s just doesn’t carry the same amount of weight as being the winningest pitcher of, say, the 1980’s. Leonard received 1 vote in 1992, which honestly sounds about right. I wonder, though, how voters would have treated him if injuries hadn’t derailed his career. I suspect he still would have been one and done but he at least may have reached double digits in votes. No pitcher with a worse career received more votes than Leonard in ’92.

Hal McRae – 1993

McRae received zero votes despite a 123 OPS+ that was higher than nine other candidates who received votes. Andre Thornton (2), though, was the only player with a lower bWAR (22.0) than McRae (24.7) to receive votes. It’s more than possible that spending the majority of his career as a designated hitter also contributed to his shut out.

Freddie Patek

Like Busby, Patek never appeared on a ballot. Unlike Busby, Patek should have, because he played 14 years in the major leagues. I could understand if he spent the entirety of his career as utility infielder but he didn’t. He was a 3 time All Star who led the American League in stolen bases from 1971 to 1979 with 336. Patek’s 21.3 bWAR and 79 OPS+ weren’t Hall worthy but neither were the numbers of several contemporaries, who not only appeared on ballots, but actually received votes. Don Kessinger (6.8 bWAR, 73 OPS+) received 2 votes in 1985, Larry Bowa (20.0 bWAR, 71 OPS+) received 11 votes in 1991, and as I mentioned earlier, Bucky Dent (15.1 bWAR, 74 OPS+) received 3 votes in 1990. Dent actually played fewer seasons than Patek but he spent most of them with the Yankees, and that’s likely the only reason he received any voting love. I’m glad the 11 games he played with Royals in 1984 didn’t keep him off the ballot.

Larry Gura – 1991

Gura was shut out but at least he was allowed to appear on a ballot. (Yes, I am bitter. Why do you ask?) No pitcher with lesser numbers received votes on this ballot.

George Brett – 1999

According to Baseball Almanac, Brett’s 98.2% is the fifth highest percentage ever, trailing only Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken Jr., and Ty Cobb. I have nothing to add here.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Former Kansas City Royals player George Brett at bat during the 2012 Legends and Celebrity softball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Frank White – 1996

Compared to the rest of the players above (excluding Brett, of course), White made out pretty well. He received 18 votes but was bounced from the ballot for falling below the 5% cutoff. There are many Royals fans who believe White should be enshrined in Cooperstown. They almost always point to Bill Mazeroski, a second baseman with near identical numbers to White’s.

John Mayberry – 1988

In ’88 Manny Mota (16.1 bWAR, 112 OPS+) received 18 votes, despite having never come to the plate 500 times even just once in his 20 year career. In his 12^th year on the ballot, Harvey Kuenn (22.8 bWAR, 108 OPS+) received 168 votes. Mayberry (21.5 bWAR, 123 OPS+) received zero.

Dan Quisenberry – 1996

Quiz was on the same ballot as White and received the same amount of votes, 18. Bruce Sutter, appearing on his third ballot, received 137 votes. Sutter eventually got in while Quisenberry was bounced from consideration. Their numbers aren’t as identical as White and Mazeroski’s but they’re close enough to wonder why one got the love and the other a cold shoulder.

Willie Wilson – 2000

Wilson received 10 votes in his one and only year on the ballot. His 43.5 bWAR was the highest among the players who missed the cut and higher than four position players who got enough support to stick around a while longer. Those players would be Steve Garvey (34.4 BWAR, 160 votes), Dale Murphy (42.6 bWAR, 116 votes), Dave Parker (36.3 bWAR, 104 Votes) and Dave Concepcion (36.5 bWAR, 67 votes). He was also just a tick below eventual Hall of Famer Jim Rice (44.3). I don’t believe Wilson got slighted though. Outside of Concepcion, the players above were much better hitters than he was.

Jeff Montgomery – 2005

Monty (19.5 bWAR, 135 ERA+) received 2 votes and that’s probably fair. I’m guessing the 13 writers who voted for Jim Abbot (17.5 bWAR, 99 ERA+) did so for non-statistical reasons. I suppose that’s not much different than voting for Bucky Dent because of who he played for, but I liked Abbot, so I’m going to let it slide.

Bret Saberhagen – 2007

How in the heck does a guy with 2 Cy Young awards, 56.0 bWAR and a 126 ERA+ receive only 7 votes? Oh right, he won only 167 games in his career. That was less than Jack Morris (39.3 bWAR, 105 ERA+, 202 votes) and Orel Hershiser (52.7 bWAR, 112 ERA+, 24 votes). I’m actually more surprised that Hershiser was eliminated from the ballot considering he was a Dodger, had the great season in 1988 and won over 200 career games. As far as Morris goes, Saberhagen was better, and it wasn’t  close.

Mark Gubicza

Gubicza never appeared on a ballot either, because Royals. His 132-136 record and 109 ERA+ must not have interested those who crafted the 2003 ballot. Rick Honeycutt (109-143, 104 ERA+) somehow received 2 votes that year. Danny Jackson (112-131, 100 ERA+) didn’t receive any votes but at least he was up for consideration.

Kevin Appier – 2010

Just like Saberhagen three years before, Appier (51.5 bWAR, 121 ERA+) won the statistical battle against Morris (39.3 bWAR, 105 ERA+) but lost the vote battle, badly. In this case, it was 282-1. Pat Hentgen (30.0 bWAR, 108 ERA+) also received 1 vote. Pat Hentgen was no Kevin Appier.

Probably the greatest hitting catcher ever…not good enough for voters. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Ridiculous. That sums up my opinion of what happened with the Hall of Fame votes cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Nobody gets in? Are you kidding me? Maybe the deepest pool of talent ever…and not one player meets the 75 percent minimum needed for enshrinement.

As you may or may not know, the FanSided MLB writers were invited to cast ballots of our own (not for the actual Hall, of course),  with results compiled by Lewie Polis at the Cleveland Indians site “Wahoo’s on First”. This vote saw two players hit the 75 percent mark: Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza. Both should probably be working on their HOF induction speeches…but not this year.

For the record, my ballot included Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Piazza, Tim Raines, and Lee Smith. I only used five of the possible ten votes…but those were the five guys I thought were most dominant in their careers and deserved to go in immediately. I think Craig Biggio is very deserving as well, and at one point I had him on my ballot, but must have talked myself out of him for some reason. I wanted to vote for the guys I really remember dominating…and Biggio, in my opinion, is a guy who was more of a grinder. Never really the dominating type…but really, REALLY, damn good…and deserving of a spot in Cooperstown (which I imagine will come his way eventually).

I’m not really here to discuss or defend who was or was not included on my ballot, but simply to say the vote this year was a disgrace to the Hall. I think the BBWAA should be ashamed of themselves. I get where some of these guys are coming from to a degree…but to leave out guys like Piazza and Biggio, if they aren’t voting in the likes Bonds or Clemens, is ridiculous.

Where does this nonsense end? It’s hard to say…left to their own devices, the BBWAA turned baseball’s historical shrine into a joke. How can you go to the HOF and walk through it…discussing the history of the game…without mention of players like Bonds or Clemens? You can’t just erase them. It won’t happen. And it’s not like leaving them out of the HOF wipes the memory of two of the most dominant players EVER from our minds. So…what’s the point?

The worst part of it all is how the BBWAA members come out of this looking like hypocrites. Outside of the game of baseball, who profited more from the “steroid era” than the writers? Were these guys up in arms when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were dueling each other in the chase for the Roger Maris single-season home run record? No. They were loving that people were reading their articles…not just baseball fans, either, but everyone. I remember that season, and everywhere you went, EVERYONE was glued to either the Cardinals or Cubs games. And if the games weren’t available, we waited for the updates to scroll across the tickers on various sports and news channels. The media – and the WRITERS – loved it.

So what happened? Why the backlash? Yeah…looks like some of these guys cheated. But when, and why, did the voters stop turning a blind eye? Maybe a lack of decisiveness from the top, as in MLB Commissioner Bud Selig and the HOF Board of Directors. Look, I don’t necessarily think Pete Rose deserves to be left out of the Hall, but he is with good reason. Many years ago, with the Black Sox Scandal, Kenesaw Mountain Landis was made baseball’s first commissioner. Landis banned the players in question from baseball for life, saying:

Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player who throws a ball game, no player who undertakes or promises to throw a ball game, no player who sits in confidence with a bunch of crooked ballplayers and gamblers, where the ways and means of throwing a game are discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball.

Whether or not you agree, there’s a reason Pete’s not in the HOF. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Pretty clear, right? Whether you agree about the effect this had on players like Buck Weaver or Joe Jackson…you have a clear cut decision made by the man in charge. The same decision that was used in the Pete Rose case years later. Does Rose belong in the HOF? I don’t know. But I do know this…what Landis said tells me Rose is out. And the HOF has kept him off the ballots based on this decision, made in 1921.

Of course…how could we expect such a decision to be made by Selig? The same man we saw at the 2002 All-Star game shrugging his shoulders when teams were running out of pitchers in a tie game. How should he know what to do? He’s only in charge of Major League Baseball.

My point is…a lack of clear and firm decision-making at the top has trickled down to the voters. They don’t know what to do. There is no clear right or wrong way to go for these guys…heck, five of them turned in blank ballots! Blank ballots? With the laundry list of superstars eligible this year? Clearly they are just winging it. Making it up as they go. Shrugging their shoulders…like Selig in 2002.

Where does this end? Will they find some ridiculous reason to keep Greg Maddux from being a first-ballot inductee next year? Probably not. But if Craig Biggio, a guy who has never been associated with steroids, can’t make the cut in a year where the plaques of much better players were kept off the walls, who knows what happens next? Until Selig or the HOF itself lays down the law…the voters (and fans) will just keep shrugging our shoulders, wondering where this all went wrong.

Congratulations should go to him as he’s being recognized for the greatest individual honor a player can receive after retiring.

The Hall of Fame.

It just sounds regal. Exclusive. Monumental.

And yet, more and more, year by year, I feel more indifferent about it.

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Larkin, a 12-time All-Star who fashioned an .815 OPS over 19 seasons, received the largest percentage of votes, being named on 84.25% of the 148 ballots cast.  This is the highest percentage garnered by any player in the three years of BBA voting.

Bagwell, who hit 449 HR and had a .948 OPS in his 15 seasons in Houston, was selected on 115 ballots for a 78.77% rate.  As with the official voting done by the Baseball Writers of America, a player must be named on 75% of the ballots to be recommended by the alliance.

Last year, the BBA recommended second baseman Roberto Alomar and pitcher Bert Blyleven, both of whom were inducted into Cooperstown during the summer.  In 2010, no player reached the 75% mark in BBA balloting, the year that outfielder Andre Dawson was selected for the Hall by the baseball writers.

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s vote has no impact on the official vote taken by the Baseball Writers of America.  However, the BBA has often been a predictor of major awards granted by the writers.

The final voting results are as follows:

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