One question that didn’t seem to be on anybody’s mind was “how will the bullpen do?”

It was assumed that the bullpen would keep rolling along. With big arms in Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins as the primary options, it seemed like they’d continue their successes. Crow and Collins have both been solid in the early going, but Holland blew his second save chance of the year, then gave up a run on the next night and was pulled for Herrera. Even his next appearance required a Joe Mauer strikeout in the rain to strand three runners (that he’d put on) and preserve a lead.

Apr 4, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera (40) pitches against the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. The Kansas City Royals defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-1. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Panic. Uproar. Hand-wringing.

Then, Herrera entered Tuesday night’s game in Atlanta as the owner of a sparkling 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 5.1 scoreless innings.

On April 21, 2012, Herrera gave up a homer to the first batter he faced, Edwin Encarnacion. After a ground out, he gave up a homer to  Colby Rasmus. Then he gave up zero homers in May. And in June. And July. August. September. He went nearly a full year between giving up homers, then gave up three in four batters against the Braves.

The Royals and Herrera thought he was tipping his pitches, and perhaps he was. But, as Craig Brown pointed out, tipping or not, he was laying in some fat pitches to some good hitters. Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Dan Uggla combined to hit 63 homers last season with Upton and Uggla in down years. In 2011, the trio combined for 81. If you put a fastball down the middle to these guys, they’ll hit it out.

And that’s what happened to Herrera.

So on Wednesday, Ned Yost had to protect a one run lead after a fantastic Wade Davis start in Atlanta. And while many were worrying about the bullpen, Yost instead went right back to Herrera, who rewarded his faith by striking out Andrelton Simmons to start the eighth inning, then induced a pop up from B.J. Upton after a Ramiro Pena pinch hit single. Heyward grounded into a force out.

Then, Holland came in to close the game out. A combination of off days and no save situations (or, after a complete game from Shields and eight innings from Santana, no innings really) meant that Holland hadn’t pitched since the rainy game against the Twins. In many situations, a reliever can be shaky after a long layoff, and Holland had went a week without getting into a game. After his previous struggles, there was enough reason to remain concerned. Facing Upton, Evan Gattis and Uggla didn’t make it any more comforting.

So of course Holland steps up and strikes out the side on 14 pitches. He threw nine strikes, five of which were on whiffs. None of the three Braves hitters made contact.

April 17, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) pitches in the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Royals won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

It makes you wonder what anyone was worried about in the first place.

They say that a relief pitcher has to have a short memory. Less than 24 hours after giving up three bombs, Herrera cruised through an inning to hold a one-run lead. Holland, after struggling for most of his 2013, came in and looked dominant.

Now maybe Holland and Herrera go back out tomorrow and get shelled again. Maybe they go through the rest of the year struggling and Wednesday is just a nice reminder of how easy it is to close out the last two innings. Herrera’s 2013 won’t be defined by one night in Atlanta. Holland’s 2012 saw him finish with a 2.96 ERA (and 2.29 FIP) despite an April where he gave up eight runs in 6.1 innings (but only 14 from May until the end).

Holland’s control issues early can’t be ignored, but he also can’t be condemned by four appearances. Likewise, one bad night for Herrera is probably an anomaly considering his solid 2012 and dominant start to 2013. If there’s a pitch-tipping issue, address it, monitor it over the course of the year, and catch it before it’s another issue. Wednesday’s games should do a lot to ease concerns about the back-end of the Royals bullpen. They won’t be perfect the rest of the way. Nobody can be. But there’s going to be more good than bad.

Exhale. Deep breaths.

Apr 6, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers to the plate during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Royals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

First, the obvious (and not very good) numbers: Holland has a 12 ERA in 4 appearances this year (just 3 innings – like I said – small sample size). He’s yet to give up a home run (which can often inflate a relief pitcher’s stats very easily, given the small amount of innings they throw), but has given up a troubling amount of hits with 5 (averaging 15 hits per 9 IP). Needless to say…that’s less than ideal. Against 20 batters so far this year, Holland has allowed 5 hits and 6 walks, while also striking out 5. That accounts for 16 of the batters faced, meaning so far this year, it’s been feast or famine…if a batter doesn’t strike out, he’s probably getting on base. So what gives?

Jumping over to Fangraphs to look at Holland’s PitchFX, Holland has basically used two pitches this year, the fastball and slider – which is to be expected, as those are his best pitches. The heater is a little off from the past couple of seasons. In 2010 it maxed out at 98.1 MPH before jumping up to 99.7 in 2012. This year his fastest has been 97.2. Not throwing close to 100 MPH is nothing to freak out about, though, if he can just consistently throw it pretty hard. His average velocity is off from 2012 as well, however, down from 96.1 to 94.7 – which is the lowest average velocity he’s posted in any season yet. Now…there’s plenty of time to get those numbers up…he’s probably going to toss between 60 and 70 innings, so he’s got a long way to go.

What jumps right out at me when it comes to the fastball is, for starters, the 71% line drive rate Holland has given up so far. Looking down the line at his numbers, I see major red flag, in that he’s thrown 30 strikes vs. 32 balls with that pitch this year. Not good. He’s all over the map with the fastball, and if he can’t locate that pitch, well, he’s going to be in some big trouble (duh).

I really don’t see anything alarming about his release point. It seems pretty on par with where it was in a successful 2012 campaign, and again, the small sample size doesn’t give us much to dissect. It could simply be that he’s putting too much pressure on himself, and I’m somewhat inclined to believe that the problem with Holland is between the ears. This year comes with a lot of expectations, and with that, a lot of pressure that these younger guys aren’t used to dealing with.

The situation is certainly a bit worrisome, and of course needs monitoring…I’d hate to see it become one of those things where the troubles and self doubt keep compounding and Holland doesn’t dig his way out at all (at least not this year). It happens every year with closers. I think (hope) the Royals will stop trotting him out there to finish off the opposition if he doesn’t get his head on right very soon. The good news? The bullpen is full of guys who can do the job. If Holland needs a chance to get his head on right, the team shouldn’t suffer if someone else is called upon.

Right now, it might even be the smart move to just go with the hot hand for a few games…I hesitate to use the phrase “closer by committee” (as it never seems to work), but it could be a short term answer. I don’t recommend anyone freak out just yet…but a couple of clean innings would go a long way to making me feel a lot better about Holland as the closer this year. Hopefully, in another week, this will all seem like ancient history.

For all the scouting reports, statistics, and strategy, sometimes there’s something else at work.

And I think I broke the Royals bullpen.

Here’s my confession: Since the Royals have played mostly afternoon games, I’ve missed out on seeing them live due to the day job and all. I can still listen through the radio, and it’s fine. Plenty of accounts from Twitter and other sources give me an idea of what’s going on. But getting the chance to see the game, start to finish, is also quite important for me as a fan and as someone who offers his opinion of the team for others to read.

Apr 07, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers to the plate during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Royals defeated the Phillies 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

So on Saturday night, I was glad to have the opportunity to watch the team play in real time. They had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the ninth, and I felt comfortable with Greg Holland protecting the lead and turned off the TV to head to a bonfire held at a friend’s house where I could see some other friends I haven’t seen in a while. Seemed a worthy trade off since I was already running late to the event.

And they blew the lead. Pretty spectacularly, at that.

Then this afternoon, the Royals game was cruising along, featuring a franchise-record-tying seven RBIs from Billy Butler, including his first career grand slam. James Shields battled back from a four run first and looked fantastic otherwise. Tim Collins was solid, Jarrod Dyson added on an extra run and they took a 9-4 lead into the bottom of the ninth. No problem.

I help coach a little league team, and we had a scheduled scrimmage at 4 p.m. but with warmups starting at 3:30. With a five run lead, I, again, turned off the TV and headed out the door. Between innings of the scrimmage, the head coach asked me if the Royals had won. Well I’d been in the same spot he was – coaching – so I’d just assumed they had finished off the 9-4 lead. Here’s the exchange:

Coach: “Did the Royals end up winning?”

Me: “I haven’t checked. I assume so. They were up 9-4.”

Coach: “9-8.”

Me: “No, it was 9-4.”

Coach: “Yeah, and they gave up four more.”

Me: “Did they put in Hochevar?”

Coach: “No, I think they had Holland in.”

Me: “Ohhh crap*.”

*I may not have said “crap”.

So those two are on me. Some kind of magic must be at work and it’s cursed the Royals bullpen in the first week of the season. I promise not to make the same mistake any more this season. I apologize to Greg Holland for wrecking his record early in the year and to Luis Mendoza for ruining a great start that should have been a win on Saturday. Maybe I’m being silly, but the Universe is swift in its punishment and clearly, it’s telling me not to turn the TV off, or I’ll have to suffer the agony of learning of Royals leads turning to dust.

I take no responsibility, however, for J.C. Gutierrez surrendering a homer to Jimmy Rollins. That one’s all his. I wanted Louis Coleman or Donnie Joseph.

You’re on your own with this one J.C. Gutierrez. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

You can always tell how dominate a guy is by how many batters he strikes out per 9 innings pitched.  Take a look at Aroldis Chapman this year, who has 112 strike outs in only 62 innings pitched.   That many strike outs in that amount of innings is just unheard of, and is on pace to be record breaking.  That fact alone is why Chapman is the most dominating pitcher in baseball right now, even as a reliever.  It’s also to show how Holland, who isn’t on Chapman’s level, is still doing his fair share to keep up.  Holland strikes out over 11 guys per 9, while Chapman is at an astonishing 16 k’s per 9.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) pitches during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

I’ll definitely take that type of production out of a guy who is trying to slam the door on the opposition.  On top of his 98 mph fastball he also has a devastating slider that I’ve seen touch 90 on the stadium gun.  I may be slightly biased, but I think Greg Holland is a guy we need anchoring down the 9th for several years to come.  For a while now, I’ve been very high on his ability as a pitcher and his ability to be an elite closer.  I’ve been advocating that he should close all season and he is doing just that now, and flourishing in his current role.

Since he has taken over the role when Jonathan Broxton was traded, he has converted 7 out of 7 save chances with a 0.73 ERA.  Meanwhile, Broxton has a 6.43 ERA in his role with the Reds in 8 games.  It’s also been a lot less stressful watching Holland in the 9th this past month instead of seeing Broxton load the bases and somehow manage to get out of it.  I believe the Royals bullpen is extremely strong, but I think the right guy is handling the 9th right now.

Holland is a guy the Royals took in the 10th round in 2007 out of Western Carolina.  He doesn’t become a free agent until 2017 and is currently earning close to half a million dollars.  In my opinion, he is the perfect guy to hand the ball off for the next few years.  He is trying to make a name for himself and potentially earn several million dollars in the near future.  I hope the Royals continue to use him in the closer role so he can continue his growth in tight situations and progress even further as we head into next season.  Plus, he has one of the greatest entrance songs a pitcher can have.  Nothing strikes more fear in the opposition than a little Electric Feel.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA batter Wil Myers drives in a run with a fielder

This is my first post in nearly two months.  A lot of things have come up in the past two months that have taken my attention away from my articles, but now I’m back and ready to focus on my posts.  At this point in the season, not many things have gone right, however there are still a few interesting developments I’d like to see play out over the course of the next two months.

The first thing I’d like to see is Billy Butler give a nice run towards breaking Steve Balboni‘s single season record of 36 home runs.  With the juiced ball and steroid era, it was commonplace for teams to have multiple players with 30 and 40 home run seasons.  The Royals have remained quiet with the long ball and at 27 years and counting no one has surpassed Balboni’s 36 home runs in 1985.  I’m aware Butler only has 20 home runs through Sunday’s game but with a few hot streaks here and there it is possible for him to challenge the record.

The next thing I’d like to see is Greg Holland really stake a claim to the closer’s role as we head into next season.  Now I’ll admit I’ve been one of the biggest Holland advocates for the past two years.  I really like his makeup and his electric stuff, but I truly believe he could be a very dominate closer for the Royals for at least the next few years.

It’s been really nice to see Mike Moustakas carry over his hot September from last season into this year.  It’s been an even better surprise to see how well he has played defensively at third base.  On the other side of the diamond has been Eric Hosmer, who has been a little different story than Moose.  Hosmer still has time this season to get things in gear and put together a respectable season, although his time will be running out very soon.  It would certainly make me feel a bit more at ease going into the off season with Hosmer raking over the last several weeks of the season.

The last thing I’d like to see the rest of the way is the arrival of the most talked about prospect in all of baseball, Wil Myers.  Now it may be possible the Royals decide to keep Myers down until next year, but that will anger a lot, if not all, of the fan base.  I’d love to see what Wil can do the rest of the way if he gets the call.  It will, at least, add a little bit of suspense for the final two months to see if he gets promoted to Kansas City.  We will just have to wait and see what the front office decides to do, as he may end up waiting until next May to finally put on a Major League uniform.

I hope to see a few of these stories develop into realization.  These are some things that keep me watching even in the dog days of the season when the team is struggling to stay out of the basement in the AL Central.  What are some other interesting topics fans are looking forward to the rest of the season?  I’d love to hear what others are thinking about.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitterto be notified each time he posts a story.

The move did leave the Royals without a designated pitcher to shut the door in the ninth – until later in the day when Ned Yost named Greg Holland the next closer.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) pitches during the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Holland had a great 2011 but his 2012 has been up and down. Early in the year he dealt with a rib injury that put him on the disabled list. Since returning, he’s worked his ERA down to more palatable levels, though his walk rate is higher than last year’s 2.9 BB/9 at 5.2 BB/9. He’s given up more hits, too, but after last year’s 5.6 H/9, it’s hard for any pitcher to repeat that stellar number.

He’s seemed to be the heir apparent to Broxton’s closers role since it became clear that Broxton was on the trading block. His strikeout ability should allow him to get out of jams with less panic than Broxton’s save attempts, though the peripheral numbers are still scary. What hits he has given up this year may be in part due to his inducing more ground balls (which are more likely to sneak through for hits than a fly ball). His .388 BABIP on the year supports that thought.

If Holland falters, Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera are favorites to step in.

Another option – though he’s a long shot – is Jeremy Jeffress, who was recalled from Omaha to fill Broxton’s roster spot. In two appearances at the big league level this year, Jeffress gave up four hits and walked two, though he managed to scatter those runners in such a way that none scored. Those appearances came in the first homestand of the year.

Since, he’s put up 58 innings in Omaha with a 4.97 ERA. He’s struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings in Triple A, which is typical for him, but his ERA is a bit deceiving, as he’s given up far less walks than is the norm. In his minor league career, Jeffress had a walk rate of 5.7 BB/9 before 2012. His current rate is 3.9 BB/9 right now, which is encouraging. He features a fastball that regularly sits in the upper 90s (and regularly hits triple digits) and a curveball that can be really nasty when he has command of it. If he can get it together, he’ll make an already solid-looking return for Zack Greinke in 2010 look that much better.

And as the Royals fade into oblivion yet again, there are rumors (aren’t there always?) that Dayton Moore is in talks with just about every team, about every player, as the trade deadline approaches. Of course, with those rumors always comes the caveat that the Royals need to be compelled to trade any of their players.

Yeah, because as this roster is currently constructed, contention is imminent, and trading players would negatively affect the future.

Aside from the obvious reasons to not hang on to a mostly untalented roster, there’s a stiff breeze blowing from the south from a franchise that’s wide-open for trading business, and looks intent on sending everything packing that’s not bolted firmly to the floor.

Jeff Luhnow took over the Houston Astros’ GM position in December – leaving the Cardinals organization and being a major player in their rising success over the past few years – and immediately became the (new) jewel of the saber-community eye. He interviewed Keith Law. He hired Mike Fast.* He immediately started unloading his over-valued, over-priced players nearing the end of their contracts.

*An admitted Royals fan. Poor guy.

And as this season’s trade deadline is nearing, the Astros have traded their closer (ahem), their first baseman, their third baseman, and their best starting pitcher. What each deal brought in return doesn’t matter as much as the reasons for doing so.

The Astros are a bad team, and holding on to players who a) can easily be replaced by a minor leaguer (Chris Johnson) b) serve little purpose on a losing ball club (Brett Myers) or c) just aren’t that good anymore past their recognizable name, would be a huge mistake (Carlos Lee). Huge.

Granted, where the Astros are in their process of rebuilding is (presumably, at least in narrative) different than where the Royals currently are in theirs. But the correlation between each of those causes for trades with Houston and Luhnow serves as a stark reminder of the missteps so far with Dayton Moore during his regime, and ones that hopefully he’s not repeating as the clock ends the deadline tomorrow.

A)   Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt: two players currently on the roster that can, and most assuredly would, be more than adequately replaced by younger, cheaper players currently in Triple-A. Of course, at this point, another team would have to want either of these players, and there’s little reason to think any objective mind would care to have Francoeur wounded-giraffing his way around their outfield and swinging at everything that moves at the plate, or Betancourt Betancourting everywhere.

B)   Jonathan Broxton, or, Joakim Soria redux: the “closer” is a largely overrated role on a pitching staff anyway, but especially one on a regime that has yet to finish a season less than 10 games under .500. There’s no place for Broxton on this team anymore, given how bad that been over the past month-plus, and now would be the ideal time to find out if Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Tim Collins, or Kelvin Herrera can step in to fill the role in order to prepare for next season.

C)   Jeff Francoeur, again: this one is just too easy.  Francoeur at this point in his career is quite possibly the worst everyday player in baseball. His negative 1.7 fWAR is the lowest in the major leagues, and there’s no amount of contrived leadership or naked batting practice that can make up for that. The contract offered to Francoeur was a mistake then, and remains a beacon for the reason teams should never pay for a player coming off a career year, before his positional market establishes. Dayton Moore beat the market to the punch when he signed Francoeur to his 2 year, $13MM deal, and the market punched back with a right-hook from hell.

If the Royals really wanted to be daring they would take this opportunity of over-valued relievers, and float the idea of a Broxton-plus package that consisted of both he and one of the other very cheap, and very young, bullpen arms.

Losing Holland, Collins, Herrera, or Crow could be a tough pill to swallow simply from a salary stand point, but there’s few other players currently on the roster that the Royals could flip in exchange for actual talent, and not have it be a major setback to the overall goal.

No matter the case, whether the Royals choose to be daring or practical as the final hours of the deadline approach, they cannot afford to stand-pat. Patience in The Process has been preached each year at this time, and because of that, moves that could have made a dramatic impact on the roster haven’t been done.

For this season, one in which more questions were raised than answers given, it would be nice if the Royals took a page out of the Houston playbook and made a concerted effort to trade everyone that doesn’t look to figure into the 2013 roster plans.

The Good

Well, um, there’s…well there’s…and there’s…

Billy Butler was named AL Player of the Week? Yeah, I guess that works. In his last 21 games Butler has been – well he’s been Billy Butler.

If it weren’t for Butler (.378/.440/.561 in his last 21 games) and Alex Gordon (.352/.406/.473 in his last 21 games) there would be little reason to watch the Royals on a nightly basis. Heck, probably even a weekly basis.

The Bad

Where’s a good place to start? The Royals have lost 21 of their last 27 games and the optimizing that was brewing at the start of June, has quickly faded back to the normal KC-fan despondence. The Twins, whom all Royals fans got pleasure in (finally) being able to mock to start the season, have climbed ahead of the Royals in the standings by slugging their way to victories despite missing Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe for a handful of games.

Yes, Buddy Bell was right.

Is there anything to look forward to? Heck, who knows? The quick answer would be “yes” because with each passing day the Royals are that much closer to calling up Wil Myers, but because that roster move has been inexplicably put-off for over a month now, it’s more likely that it won’t happen until September.

The Royals keep using the argument that a spot needs to be created for Myers before he can make his trek to Kansas City, but when the player he’s replacing is Jeff Francoeur, that would be like a TV network saying they just can’t find a place for the new Louis C.K. pilot because they already have ‘Whitney’ in that time slot. A change is a necessity, not a burden.

The Upcoming

The Royals next six games are against a Cleveland team that’s looking to unload some of its veteran, high-cost players, and a Texas team that’s likely to come into Kauffman Stadium and hit 27 homeruns in their three-game set.

So, a mid-summer home stand watching an (again) basement dwelling team on a massive losing stretch? That sounds super fun.

“It takes a different kind of skillset to play baseball. You don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball.”

Originally this was supposed to be a post about Kyle Zimmer and why I love the pick, and the potential of the athlete, so much. I was going to break down his delivery and his stuff (with some help from some Internet friends) and project his future from my rather limited perception of him. However after overhearing what I was sure was just a father repeating some Neanderthal narrative about how the kind of physical shape baseball players are in, I couldn’t think of anything else.

In that instant amidst, Tweeting something obnoxious and having our grocery list recited to me, my brain called an audible and I couldn’t get the phrase “you don’t have to be a good athlete to be good at baseball” out of my head. I was stuck.

Everything that I had ever fought, every traditional mindset, every head-in-the-sand nonsensical outlook on the training of pitchers and baseball players was summed up in that father’s seemingly insignificant sentence.

Too often people confuse athleticism with strength or the ability to jump high, or run fast. Those traits do play a role in being an athlete for sure, but to mischaracterize baseball players as “non athletes” or “not very athletic” because you don’t see them at an NFL-style combine in their underwear running and jumping does not mean they’re not athletes. They’re some of the best athletes.

Baseball is a stagnant sport. There’s lots of standing around, lots of explosive movements required from a standing start, and lots of hip flexibility and reactionary skills that a “non athlete” couldn’t do. Do not confuse physical shape, or how a player looks with how athletic he is.

As I mentioned on the podcast I was on recently, in my opinion the true definition of athleticism is how well someone controls his or her body.

In order to generate the necessary torque to throw a baseball or swing a bat, the level of body control to fire reflexes and the body sequencing required to turn on a 99 mph fastball to hit it 400 feet is super athletic. The ability to repeat pitching mechanics to generate high velocities with control is super athletic.

Stop it with the idea that baseball players aren’t athletes. And if you’re having this opinion, please don’t repeat it out loud, there might be someone the next table over who just wants to enjoy a quiet night with his wife.

The Good

Well, winning is a lot more fun than losing. After the horrific start culminating in a 12 game losing streak, the Royals have been one of the better teams in baseball (at least record wise) and have pulled themselves to within 5 games of the division lead. How’s about that?

In the Rant a couple weeks ago I said that June (admittedly an idea stolen from someone else) would be a huge month for the Royals because the schedule turned in their favor, and the offense couldn’t be that bad for very long. Well, the offense still isn’t great, but with Alex Gordon going all on-base machine since returning to the leadoff spot, the offense has turned things around to help the bullpen win some games.

Yes, the bullpen.

Because, this is going to be the theme of the entire season, the bullpen continues to be amazing. Simply. Amazing.

Led by Tim Collins (imagine that visual) the revolving door of the final three-to-four spots in the bullpen haven’t been as big a detriment as one would normally associate with the taxi squad. Stability in Collins, Aaron Crow, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Mijares, and now Greg Holland, has allowed the Royals to not only stay in games to come back to win late, but have logged multiple innings to protect leads.

For all the negative things I’ve said about Dayton Moore’s roster construction over the last year-and-a-half on this site, one big positive has been his ability to put together a bullpen. And this year, he’s done one helluva job.

The Bad

For all the talk about Billy Butler not being “clutch”, and for all the talk about how Billy Butler doesn’t drive in runs, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot being said about how Jeff Francoeur only has 18 RBI, and we’re more than two months into the season.

Sure there are some things to like about Francoeur’s game like his arm or his occasional hot streaks, but his negative points get overshadowed by the media perception of him being such a great guy/baseball player, for what really only amounts to him having a recognizable name.

While I don’t pay much attention to stats with runners in scoring position they’re still fun to look at, especially when they can be manipulated to prove the point I’m trying to make.

During his career Francoeur has hit .270/.325/.419 with runners in scoring position. For Butler, during his career, he has hit .309/.392/.471 with runners in scoring position.

You know what’s great about those numbers? With runners in scoring position Butler’s stats are actually better than his career numbers (.297/.360/.462), contrary to what the narrative would have you to believe because of some arbitrary RBI total.

I only bring this up because the highly esteemed, and incredibly readable Jeff Parker brought up yesterday how during the broadcast, the Royals announcers went completely out of their way to talk about how Butler went a stretch of eight games without registering an RBI. Meanwhile, as Jeff pointed out, nothing is ever said of Francoeur for what he doesn’t do well.

This isn’t yet another way to sneak a Butler post into a post about something else (or maybe it is), and this is probably much to do about nothing. The reason Butler gets so much scrutiny from fans and the Royals might be because he has the potential to be one of the very best hitters in baseball (he already is), and the reason Francoeur skates by with nary a word of his deficiencies is because he has the potential to be merely one of the very average players in baseball (he already is).

Francoeur shouldn’t be given the pass that he seemingly is, and he shouldn’t have his spot in the lineup granted to him without competition, also like he seemingly is.

Jeff Francoeur is what he’s always been: a player that should probably be platoon-only as a lefty-masher that plays some decent defense. And if he’s the reason for either a) keeping Wil Myers in Triple-A or b) forcing Wil Myers to a position he mostly can’t handle everyday at the major league level, then the Royals need to find a different reason.

The Upcoming

It would be foolish not to mention the weekend home series against the Cardinals, but I’m sure we’ll have enough of that here over the course of the week to more than fill the readers’ appetite.

What has to be mentioned though is how the Royals are this close to playing really meaningful games again, and despite the depletion of the bullpen and the lack of production from the rotation, six more against NL opponents and three of those being against a team that on paper they’re better than (Houston), leaves even me optimistic.

And for me, that’s saying something. This is starting to get really fun.

Greg Holland will be back and available tonight against the White Sox. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Nate Adcock was optioned to Omaha to make room for him.

Vin Mazzaro was called up from Omaha earlier in the week, and after an eight pitch inning last night in relief and could be in line for a spot start while Jonathan Sanchez is on the DL and could get work as a long reliever while Luke Hochevar is struggling. Luis Mendoza is around for those duties as well, but he’s out of options. I thought Adock would be a better option to stick around, but he’ll rejoin Omaha’s rotation.

In his absence, the Royals bullpen has had solid performances from Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera and others, but adding Holland, who may have been the best arm in the bullpen coming into the season, will give them another weapon.

Holland had been on the disabled list with a rib injury and his control suffered. In his last outing before going on the DL, he threw 22 pitches, but only seven for strikes against Toronto on April 20. That pushed his season ERA to 11.37 in 6.1 innings. He threw two innings in Northwest Arkansas, giving up one hit and striking out three, all in the first inning of the Naturals no-hitter on Thursday.

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Holland started the night with three strikeouts as he makes his way back to health and the Royals bullpen.

Chris Dwyer is happy and with good reason. Photo: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Chris Dwyer took over and, despite struggles all year, rolled through 6.2 innings and left after 103 pitches. Brendan Lafferty finished the eighth inning for him and put the feat in the hands of Kendal Volz.

The first batter Volz faced – Jermaine Curtis – ripped a line drive but it was right at shortstop Christian Colon. Two ground outs later and the Naturals celebrated their second no-hitter in team history. The first came last year when Will Smith and Kelvin Herrera combined to shut down Memphis.

This is encouraging for Dwyer, who hasn’t had a lot of encouraging signs since hitting Double A. Coming into the game, he had a 7.46 ERA and was walking six batters per nine innings. At 24 years old, he’s running out of time to show that he can be an impact prospect anymore. Nights like tonight show that, now and then at least, he can be a dominant pitcher.

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Mar 16, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) slides safely into third base during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals knew that Lorenzo Cain would be out for a little while still after what was initially thought to be a groin strain turned out to be a torn hip flexor.

Now, he’ll resume his minor league rehab assignment and will report to Surprise, Arizona. Unfortunately, he’s still 4 to 8 weeks from returning to action, according to Bob Dutton. Until then, the Royals will continue to look at Jarrod Dyson and mix in Mitch Maier in center field.

To this point, both have filled in well. Maier is batting just .222 but he’s reached base 35% of the time and has played strong defense in center. He’d be just fine as an injury fill in full time in my opinion. The Royals want to see what they have in Jarrod Dyson. Recently, he’s been playing better than his early season cameo when he was sent back down after two games. He has a base hit in all seven games he’s played in this year and he’s seeing more pitches per plate appearance (4.0) than the league average (3.82). Last night, he had two at bats of eight or more pitches at the top of the order.

That will play for this team. If he keeps making contact, his speed will be an asset. If he can work a walk and get some pitch counts up, even better.  If for some reason there’s another setback with Cain or neither of Dyson and Maier can stay in center, Derrick Robinson is still hitting surprisingly well in Omaha, and the Royals may have occasion to call up Wil Myers to Omaha and could use the roster spot.

In pitching news, Greg Holland threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and said he felt fine after 26 pitches. He was placed on the disabled list after a dreadful appearance against the Blue Jays last month where he threw 22 pitches but just 7 strikes.

He was a potential replacement for Joakim Soria coming into the year, and at least figured to be an elite setup man after a breakout 2011, but he hadn’t recreated the same dominance from last season. In one of his seven appearances did he retire the side in order. He’ll start a minor league rehab assignment soon and should be on the mend shortly after that. Until then, the trio of Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins have been effective and Kelvin Herrera has been great in lower leverage situations.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com.

I was actually sitting in the stands in Surprise on the day when Joakim Soria blew out his elbow.  I didn’t know for sure what was happening before the trainer went to the mound, but after watching him pitch to a couple batters I tweeted to @Ethan_Bryan,  “I can see Soria’s mojo slipping away before my eyes.”

Royals fans are looking forward to having Salvador Perez behind home plate again. (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the darkest days of this young year actually occurred before the season began.  Last March 13 during Spring Training, Salvador Perez got his cleats stuck in the dirt and twisted his knee while warming up starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez.  An MRI revealed Perez had torn his lateral meniscus which required surgery to repair.  It is likely he’ll be out of the lineup until sometime around the All-Star game break.

You may also remember that prior to Salvador Perez’s stint on the DL, Manny Pina suffered a similar injury that has prevented him from getting any playing time this year.  This left the Royals with Brayan Pena as the only healthy major league caliber (stretching the definition of “ML caliber” just a little) catcher in their system.

We heard rumors that the Royals considered several temporary options to fill Salvador’s position, including Ivan Rodriguez who decided to retire last week, but settled on a trade with Houston that has Astros fans feeling pretty good and Royals fans a little uneasy.

To obtain catcher Humberto Quintero, and backup outfielder Jason Bourgeois from Houston (yes, the same Jason Bourgeois that was recently demoted in favor of “one-tool” Jarrod Dyson), the Royals packaged Minor League pitcher Kevin Chapman and the dreaded “player to be named later.”  (PTBNL)  On the surface, this doesn’t seem like a terrible deal for either team, except for the unknown piece of the agreement.  The Astro’s gave up two guys who weren’t going to make their team, in exchange for a decent minor league pitcher from the Royals with potential to eventually become a respectable reliever, plus the ominous PBTNL.

Even the specter of the PBTNL wouldn’t be too worrisome, except for this comment which was Tweeted by Alyson Footer, MLB’s beat reporter and Sr. Director of Social Media for the Astro’s – “I’m getting impression that Chapman is projected to be 7th/8th inn reliever and that the ptbnl is a good one, not just throw-in.”

Humberto Quintero is filling in for Salvador Perez and may become his permanent backup. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

And then during the announcement of the trade, Jeff Luhnow, General Manager of the Astros, stated that the player to be named later would be the key component of the trade.

What are Royals fans supposed to think about this?  While our farm system may still be loaded with talent even after the promotions of Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Duffy, and Cain; few of us believe that we have extra pieces to simply give away in exchange for a temporary player that could be virtually useless in a few weeks – unless he becomes Perez’s permanent backup.  (Cue the ominous movie background music.)

Because Quintero (or “Q” as many call him) has played part-time in the National League, few of us knew much about him upon his arrival in KC.  Dayton Moore told us “Humberto Quintero is a guy we like as a solid catch-and-throw guy and has a lot of experience at the Major League level and gives us the depth that we need at this point.”  You remember DM calling Q a “solid catch-and-throw guy,” right?  So what did you expect when you heard this?  Did you expect the 3^rd most stolen bases allowed? Did you also expect him to be among the leaders in passed balls?  I doubt it.  Considering Q is only a part-time player, these results are not encouraging.

Quintero is batting a semi-respectable .283/.366/.429 (before Tuesday’s game), with zero HR’s, but he has never hit higher than .250 over the past 9 seasons (except 2006 when he only played in 11 games) so I’m certain we can expect to see his numbers regress dramatically soon.  Brayan Pena is hitting just as well as Q right now in nearly every category and no doubt will continue to produce offensively at a higher level than Humberto over the remainder of the season.

Brayan Pena rides the bench most nights while Humberto Quintero starts (Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

I haven’t been a fan of Pena’s defense ever since he failed to block home plate at least twice last year on critical plays, but stats suggest his defense has been just as good as Quintero’s so far this year.  Quintero’s WAR is 0.2, Pena’s is 0.3.   Pena earns $875,000 and Quintero earns $1M.  But more importantly, Quintero cost us a PTBNL.  (I know, I’m harping on the PTBNL thing, but it bothers me so I can’t help it.)

I just don’t understand why we needed Quintero?  Couldn’t we have just picked up almost any journeyman free agent catcher off the street to backup Pena while waiting for Salvador Perez to recover, rather than trade away an unknown PTBNL?

Maybe I’m worried over nothing, but what if the PTBNL is based on playing time?  Quintero is getting the majority of the starts this year (for reasons unknown) and it’s possible that the more games he plays, or more plate appearances he receives will result in us forfeiting a higher caliber prospect.  Why wouldn’t the Royals have announced the terms of the PTBNL?  I’ve always said – if someone purposefully won’t tell you something, it’s because they don’t want you to know.  And why don’t the Royals want us to know?  My guess is that if it was something we’d be happy to hear, they’d tell us.

In my opinion, the Royals didn’t make a good move here.  We gave up prospects to get Quintero which tells me they projected him to be Perez’s permanent backup.  It tells me they believed Quintero is a stronger player than Pena.  It also tells me that once again, they don’t always know what they’re doing.

April hasn’t been so kind to the Royals – again – and all the warm and fuzzies coming into 2012 were quickly dashed after the club thought it to be a good idea to roll off 12 straight losses, and be the first team in a century to lose as many at home to start the season as they did. So, that’s something.

Alex Gordon has stunk. Greg Holland has stunk. Joakim Soria and Salvador Perez got hurt and no one seems to know what to get Millie or Jimmy for their wedding present.

All of that being said it is May, and May means new beginnings in the form of flowers from April showers, or something. And with that hopefully some things will start to turn around for the team like Eric Hosmer’s BABIP or the starting rotations out-making ability. One thing we do know for sure though is Alex Gordon no longer stinks and is back on track to winning the 2012 AL MVP award.

On to the bag: (more…)

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball players are a superstitious lot.  There are some superstitions that almost everyone follows, and there are some that are bizarrely unique.  For those of us who watched Tuesday’s game on TV, we witnessed Alcides Escobar wearing Yuniesky Betancourt’s shoes.  Escobar did have a hit in the game, keeping his average above .300, but the Royals still lost the game.

Some superstitions start at a young age.  Starting in little league, no one dares to step on the chalk foul line on the way on or off the field.  Maybe this is in line with “step-on-a-crack-break-your-mother’s-back” type of thinking.  However, there is always that one guy on the team who always steps on the chalk.  I have yet to observe who the Royals’ line-steppers are.  Maybe they need to work harder at converting others.

Another common superstition is not talking about a no-hitter for fear of jinxing it.  This subject was actually broached on the Royals’ Twitter time-line last week, about five minutes before Luke Hochevar surrendered his first hit of the game.  Rookie mistake.

Baseball players are people of routines and when they find a routine that works—whether it includes shirts, bats, and hats—they stick with it.  (Remember Roy Hobbs and his bat Wonderboy?)  Some players have lucky undershirts or a favorite place to sit on the bench.  Rumor has it Alex Gordon wore the same hat all season last year.  (Maybe he needs to find it for this season?)  These behaviors of routine are then transferred onto the diamond, as players us them to help focus and duplicate previous successful endeavors.

One of my personal favorite superstitions, the rally hat, started with the players and has passed on to us fans.  A rally hat is any hat worn inside-out, upside-down, with the bill pointed to heaven or to the guy behind you or in a multitude of other ways.  (A Royals rally hat is not to be confused with anything that the “royals” from the other side of the ocean wear on their heads.)  Come late innings, the losing team almost always breaks out some kind of rally cap to inspire on-the-field success.

Many players also have their own unique superstitions.

I have heard that when Reggie Jackson signed with the Angels after having multiple successful seasons with the Yankees, that he took his batting helmet with him, having  an Angels’ logo painted over the Yankees logo.

Satchel Paige reportedly had his pitching arm rubbed down with axle grease before every outing.  He believed it helped him to pitch nine innings every time.

Wade Boggs might take the cake as one of the most superstitious players of all time.  He ate chicken before every game and later published a cookbook of all of his chicken recipes.  He woke up at the same time every day (I wonder how that works in different time zones) and always took 150 ground balls during infield practice.  He drew a Hebrew word in the batter’s box meaning “life” before each at bat and would always smooth the dirt in front of him with his left foot while standing at third base.

With the Royals’ losing streak approaching epidemic proportions, many fans have tried to break the slump employing their own superstitions, and I am no exception.  For one game, I tried to comment on everything on Twitter.  The next game, I had a Twitter fast.  (Michael Engel was supposed to join me, but he broke in the seventh inning.  Weak.)  I have participated in L’il Frenchy’s “wear-a-different-Royals-shirt-everyday” and am starting to get strange looks.  I overheard one fan, who is an avid collector of Royals’ autographs, is spending time rearranging his autographed baseballs, trying to find the “right combination.”

What all of this comes down to is simple: we desperately want a win. 

I cannot help but look at the beginning of this season through the lens of Story.  According to best-selling author Donald Miller, a story is simply “a character who wants something and overcomes conflict to get it.”  At the beginning of every story, we are introduced to the protagonist, the leading character.  The first chapters of a book or first scenes of a movie show us the goodness in the character, enabling us to become emotionally attached to this character’s success.  Following the introduction to the character, we catch a glimpse of what it is that the character desires as well as the obstacles that the character must overcome in order to succeed.  The greater the desired object of the character, the more resistance he will face, the more demanding the obstacles he will have to overcome.

Let’s revisit the first few chapters of this year’s Royals story.

In the off-season, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all signed contract extensions.  The slogan of “Our Time” is adopted for the 2012 season.  Even in the middle of football season, people are talking Royals baseball.  The fan base is truly excited, believing that we’ll be surprised and rewarded on the field.

The obstacles start occurring even before the season officially starts.  Manny Pina and Salvador Perez both go down with knee injuries.  Joakim Soria is out for the season with his second Tommy John surgery.  Felipe Paulino has a strained forearm.  Blake Wood has an irritated ulnar nerve.

The season starts, and we quickly fall in love with our character.  The first time through the rotation, the Royals starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Lorenzo Cain impresses us in the field and at the plate.  The Royals’ win their first series against the Angels and come home from their first road trip at .500.  We see the potential.  We believe—Nosotros Creemos.

Round two of the obstacles:  Lorenzo Cain gets injured.  And, as of this writing, a 12-game losing streak.  No wins at home.  Zero statistical luck.  Double plays (and a triple play!) mean that there are runners on base and hard hit baseballs.  They just happen to be hit right at people.  Phenomenal reliever Greg Holland is placed on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his rib cage.  Moments ago, it was released that Cain experienced a “minor setback” in his rehab assignment, further delaying his return to the team.

Once the obstacles start coming, they will not stop until the want of the character is satisfied.  (Think “Lord of the Rings” or “Star Wars” or any good movie.)  This is the critical time for character development.  We learn how the character reacts when nothing goes according to plan, when the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.  In the middle of the pain of the struggle, the character is tested to see if he truly has what it takes to press on and continue to pursue his dream, even without any positive reinforcement.  Will he cave in to resistance or persevere through it?  This is the ultimate question.

If I were in charge of writing the story of this year’s Royals, it would go like this:

Slowly, the Royals will start winning, and slowly the players will return to the team healthy.  By the All-Star break, Cain, Paulino, Holland, and Giavotella will all be in KC and contributing to the team’s success.  The Royals will be in third place in their division, still under .500, but only by a few games.  After the All-Star break, the Royals catch fire, becoming the hottest team in all of baseball.  Perez will return to the lineup to guide the pitching staff into consistent and brilliant performances.  The team that walked through the valleys in April will be able to do no wrong.  And for the first time in decades, the Royals make it into the postseason.

The last time the Royals were in the postseason, I lived in Springfield.  In just a few weeks, I’ll be moving my family back toSpringfieldso my daughters can spend more time with their grandparents.  I’ll willingly join the ranks of the displaced Royals’ fans if this will help the Royals tell a better story this season.

For now, I’ve got my shirt on inside-out, the bill of my hat pointed to heaven, and my autographs arranged in the order of today’s lineup.  It can’t hurt.

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

To properly celebrate the return of baseball to Kansas City in for the 2012 season, the Royalman Report packed up and headed to an undisclosed location to broadcast among the many fans hanging out before  the first game at Kauffman Stadium.

Chris Kamler, Michael Engel, Troy Olsen and guest James Geist discuss the Royals.

We discussed the first two series of the year, the bullpen and compared closer possibilities. We had to cover Lorenzo Cain’s DL stint of course, and covered our opening day memories of the past. We also got to talk to a few fans near the broadcast location. It was a blast, however the game after the broadcast wasn’t quite as fun…

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

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Jonathan Broxton has big shoes to fill. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-US PRESSWIRE

Broxton’s signing this winter was first seen as a way to build a dynamic bullpen with the former All Star in the mix. Perhaps he could return to form as a successful reliever after a year and a half of injury and ineffectiveness. Now, he’s thrown right back into the key spot in the back of a bullpen.

It’s been said a few times, but the bullpen was one area where the Royals were deeper than many teams, so many other players could have stepped into Soria’s role.

Yost said that Broxton’s previous experience is what won him the role. As a Dodger, Broxton had 32 holds in 2008 before taking over as closer. In 2009, he saved 36 of 42 games and struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings in the two years. In 2010, he started the year with a 0.83 ERA through 32.2 innings and had a 48/5 K/BB ratio. On June 27, he threw 48 pitches in an appearance, giving up four runs in one inning. Over the next 29.2 innings pitched including that outing, he had a 7.58 ERA with five blown saves in 11 chances and a 25/23 K/BB ratio. Many blamed Dodgers manager Joe Torre for overuse and he missed most of 2011 with a sore elbow.

Yost says he’s healthy enough to close on consecutive days, though.

Greg Holland is probably going to see some closing opportunities if Broxton can’t go on a given day.

There are a few things at work here, including a reliance to stick with someone who has “closer experience”. Broxton also isn’t likely to see a lot of outings that take him beyond one inning, so that makes it easier for Yost to put him at the back of the bullpen. Holland is also free to come in for appearances to get the last out or two in an inning and stay in for the next one, which should get him more innings, which is favorable since he’s the best reliever on the team now.

Broxton struck out 11 in eight innings of work during spring games, giving up one earned run. On a few occasions he was hitting the upper 90s with his fastball. If he falters, Holland is right there to step in and Kelvin Herrera, who made the cut, or Aaron Crow could get a look as well.

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I haven’t done a very good job of hiding my devotion and fandom of Alex Gordon. Then again, I haven’t really tried. I’ve written about him enough on this site that there’s really little need to link all the posts again again.

But when the Royals announced on Friday that they had agreed to terms on the long-awaited long-term extension with the left fielder, I was left to do nothing more than smile.

We don’t really know what this means for the team this year, or next year, or the year after that. We don’t really know if this is the first, or I guess the third or fourth, sign that the organization truly is started to take a turn towards putting a competitive team on the field year-in and year-out. We don’t know if this contract will end up looking bad a couple years down the road like the Gil Meche and Jose Guillen contracts, or largely irrelevant like the Zack Greinke contract.

What we do know though is that through all the negative things Dayton Moore has done during his tenure as General Manager of the team, he at least has been true to his word when he said he was going to be aggressive in retaining the homegrown talent.

Everyone by now knows the story of Alex Gordon and how he came to be the lightning rod for fan interaction. Heading into last year, most fans couldn’t stand the guy both as a player, due to underachieving, and as a guy, due to some perceived attitude problem. He had troubles staying healthy, which didn’t fit with an athlete of his caliber and the kind of shape he keeps himself in, and he struggled at his natural position of third base, which he was supposed to be the next George Brett.

But heading into last year (with a bandwagon headed by me, I’m proudly to say) Gordon transformed not only his career, but also his image with a fanbase primed to want to believe again. His play in 2011 led to a Gold Glove at a new position, and “dominance” at a new spot in the lineup, lead off. Both new ventures in his career, both successes, and the fans were back on his side.

Quite a few Royals writers and bloggers have been leading the charge to get a new contract signed with Gordon. (Forgive me.) There wasn’t ever a big worry that it wouldn’t happen, but as Spring Training rolled on with very little news either way on the negotiations, there started to be some doubt. Come to find out, Dayton Moore and Co. were just doing what they’re very good at doing: getting things done behind the scenes, without the fans and media attention.

This contract means a lot to this organization. I’m not usually one to think that a contract with one player, in any terms, has a reflection or influence on any of the other players, but maybe in this case it does. Maybe now that three (!) Royals this Spring Training have signed new contracts it will only turn some media attention to the other young players on the roster to do the same. Eric Hosmer would be the most logical next target, and the national and local media have already set their sights on that story. Is it far-fetched? Possibly, but who among us really saw either Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez coming? It’s a nice dream to dream.

The only worrisome aspect about the Gordon contract is how the money is broken up over the next four years. Being back-loaded for $10MM and $12.5MM in 2014 and ’15 respectively, that money will be cutting into the budget that will also have to be used to cover arbitration years and other new contracts to the likes of Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland, and others. But those are small worries.

For now, this is something to just sit back and enjoy. Sure there are risks involved in giving this type of extension.  Mainly, it’s Gordon’s potential to regress back to the player he was before 2011.

But the risks are greatly outweighed by the commitment of the Royals organization, and the effort to follow through from the organization, to put a winning team of the field by retaining one of its best players.

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Joakim Soria has been the key member of the Royals bullpen since Octavio Dotel was traded away back in 2007. Since, he’s been an All-Star twice and looked like the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera as the never-wavering elite closer in the game.

His elbow, of course, has other ideas.

Before the worst news was reported, Robert Ford discussed the impact of a Soria injury and how it relates to the construction of the Royals bullpen:

Modern-day bullpens are built backward, from the closer on out, and having instability at the closer’s spot can be a recipe for disaster. If Soria has to miss significant time, the Royals may be able to weather the absence of their closer better than most.

Following the now-standard model of bullpen construction, the Royals need to determine who their closer is going to be to open the season.

Closer Candidates (unscientific estimated likelihood, or, a guess if you will)

Jonathan Broxton (50%): Broxton was, at one point, an elite set up man who inherited the closer’s role with the Dodgers, then had an All-Star 2009 where he struck out better than 13 batters per nine innings and limited teams to less than one baserunner per inning. In 2010, he ran into arm troubles and his performance suffered into last year. His velocity and strikeouts dropped while batters hit him harder, walked more and put up a 5.68 ERA against him. He looked sharp in one spring outing, but in Tuesday’s game, he gave up a few hits and committed an error. My guess is that Ned Yost will cite his “experience as a closer” as a means to setting him up in that role.

Aaron Crow (20%): The Royals officially announced what most everyone knew was going to happen anyway, that Aaron Crow would move back to the bullpen after a half-hearted look at him as a rotation candidate. That’s not so much Crow’s fault, as most of his seven innings have been strong and he’s been striking people out. On Tuesday, he used six pitches to strike out the first two Angels he faced. When Soria struggled last year as the closer, Crow took over the role (technically) though he never ran into a save opportunity while Soria settled down. When called into tight spots in other contexts, though, Crow usually showed the ability to come in and get the out.

He has the typical fastball/slider combination that many late-inning relievers have and both pitches can be strong when he has them going well. He’s prone to a little inconsistency and had bad platoon splits. Right-handers put up a .537 OPS against him. Lefties? .919.

Greg Holland has the stuff, but does he get the opportunity to close? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Greg Holland (20%): There’s a great bit of research over at ESPN about Holland’s slider and his potential as a closer. Unlike Crow, the pitch gives him the opportunity to manhandle left-handed batters who mustered only a .522 OPS against him. Righties were at .519.

He definitely has the stuff to close. At times, it’s downright filthy (hence my continued efforts to call the North Carolina native “Dirty South”). Holland strikes batters out, he was more efficient with his pitches in 2011 than after his 2010 debut, and reaching less three ball counts allowed him to avoid  walks.

The best stat to make his case as the closer is this one: Holland inherited 33 runners last year. Two scored.

So far this spring, he has seven strikeouts in 5.1 innings and no walks. He’s a favorite of the Twitter crowd to snag the closer’s role and with good reason. If the Royals take a progressive approach though, they may use him more like an old school fireman to relieve whenever a threat pops up. If he’s truly the Royals best reliever, his value is best realized in those moments that matter, and not a three run game that most other Royals relievers could close out.

Kelvin Herrera (9%): Herrera is often cited as having “closer stuff”, which is a simple way to say that he has an upper-90s fastball and strong secondary pitches. Against the Dodgers this spring, he struck out four in two innings, using his fastball, a curveball and his changeup to put batters away. With Soria’s injury, he’s more likely to make the team, whereas before he might have ended up in Omaha and been the first pitcher recalled. With many other options, Herrera isn’t likely to be put into the role, but if he pitches well and others struggle, he has his chance to succeed in the role.

The Field (1%): I suppose it’s possible that Louis Coleman or Blake Wood (assuming his elbow soreness isn’t an issue) could get a look if there are concerns or other issues that press them into service. Jeremy Jeffress has shown better control and still has the heat that made him one of the Brewers top prospects. These are longshots to close, but they’ll have a role in Kansas City’s bullpen throughout the year.

The Royals were fortunate to have the depth to handle the potential loss of Soria, so they don’t have to scramble to find someone to close. The arms are there and they can be utilized almost at will. Since most of the bullpen is so young, they have options and can be shuttled to and from Omaha if someone starts to slow from fatigue. Say Jeffress is pitching well in Omaha and Coleman has thrown more innings than were planned. The Royals can swap them out and get a less taxed arm up from the minors for a short stretch then swap them back out if they want to.

Lefties Everett Teaford, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares and Tommy Hottovy can eat up innings as well, depending on which ones make the team (Collins, at 1.50, has the worst ERA of the four, which is a great place to be if spring training stats translate to regular season performance somehow). One of Felipe Paulino or Luis Mendoza will probably be in the bullpen as a long reliever as well while the other is in the rotation.

Losing Soria isn’t the way the Royals would want to go, but they aren’t without options to fill his shoes. I would bet that Broxton will get the first look but if there are any struggles, Holland is the most likely long-term option to finish off games.

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Alcides Escobar is a focus for the Royals Front Office. (Photo Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

With all this talk of extensions for young players, I really got to thinking hard about who comes first in this arrangement. Who’s the most important piece to sign? What positions are most necessary? Who has both the skill and the attitude that makes them an integral part of the puzzle going forward?

We already know the first answer. Salvador Perez was signed early last week to a nice 5-year, $7 million contract with a few option years tacked on. It’s the classic case of a low-cost, high-reward extension. It’s been covered extensively, so I don’t want to focus too much on that.

Instead, I just want to think about who comes next.

The young players in camp have made the fanbase put quite a bit of emphasis on signing some long-term. There are the obvious ones — Eric Hosmer — and the ones you think you want, though you want to see a bit more from them first — Mike Moustakas and Danny Duffy. But there are always some that you forget about before you realize they’re gone.

Well, yesterday I bluntly said (on Twitter) that I thought Alcides Escobar should be a focus. When some followers presented legitimate cases why that shouldn’t be so, I sat and thought about it a little more. And then I made up a list of the order I’d want guys signed in, which, oddly enough, follows the early part of the Royals’ desire for extensions (according to Buster Olney of ESPN):

Alex Gordon
Alcides Escobar
Eric Hosmer
Danny Duffy
Mike Moustakas
Greg Holland
Aaron Crow
Johnny Giavotella
Louis Coleman
Lorenzo Cain

We’ll see where that takes us. The first disclaimer is that 2012 performances will obviously juggle this list a bit. Should Cain be a rockstar in centerfield, he’ll vault up the list. Should Holland throw it in the dirt every time, he’ll go down. It’s all relative. Still, I think the first five are set in stone for me.

Gordon is obvious. I’m not going to belabor that point or say again what’s already been said.

The case for Alcides Escobar is much like that for Sal. He plays great defense at a premium defensive position. That alone gets guys long-term contracts. So far in his career, his bat (.252/.294/.339) has been less than stellar, not quite matching his production (.298/.353/.409) at AAA Nashville (Go Sounds!). I can’t really say that his production will shoot through the roof once he gets more time since he’s had two full seasons in the majors, but he did take a small step forward in 2011. Should he take another one, well, there won’t be any debate. And since we’ve given Sal a deal without knowing for sure if he’ll be a great batter or a subpar one, I’m not really sure why Escobar gets the shaft in that respect. He’s a great defensive player at a premium defensive position. A Sal-like contract wouldn’t be out of the question at all, if the Royals could get it.

So, given those three, the Royals would have two core pieces of their defense and a (hopefully) strong piece of their offensive locked up alongside Billy Butler.

I would think the Hosmer debate is obvious, though some may question why he’s not higher. To be frank, I believe the Royals will look for that perfect opportunity to sign him, whenever that is. With Boras in tow, he’ll probably wait until he’s garnered MVP votes or become an All-Star or whatever the case is. So, again, it just comes down to when the Royals find the right time to get him. And they’ll likely have an easier job with Escobar than with Hosmer.

For Duffy and Moustakas, they need to produce. Reports out of camp are good for both of them, from what I’ve seen, and we’ll see if that translates to the regular season. I love both of these guys, but if they don’t take a step forward over a full season, it’ll be hard to justify the contract extensions right now. In Moustakas’ case, Cheslor Cuthbert looks like he could be the incumbent should Moustakas fall, and that provides some insurance that might make it more difficult to go for that extension. Just depends on how the Royals feel about it. And Duffy’s case is that he could be a great pitcher for the Royals for many years and seems to want to be a Royal for many, many years, but he still has to produce. With some issues with other lefties in the organization right now, he’s got the limelight, but should they jump forward and pass him, it gets tougher.

The rest of the list is sort of all over the place. I feel like we need to anchor down the bullpen, a la the Joakim Soria contract years ago, if these guys can stay strong. Holland, Crow, and Coleman all have legitimate cases to stick around for years, and if they throw out another good season, they may end up doing just that.

As for Giavotella and Cain, both are guys that need to hit to stay. In Cain’s case, his defense can save him a bit. In Gio’s case, he needs to hit since his defense isn’t quite as strong. Cain will reach arbitration sooner, but locking up that center fielder for years, should he play well, could be as strong an interest to the Royals as Sal and Escobar are. Like with Gio, we just have to wait and see what he does this year. For a lot of these guys, a lot rides on their ability to stay in the game and play well in 2012.

Well, that’s what I think about it. Like I say, that list can get juggled depending on performance. When Wil Myers hits, he’ll slot in somewhere, but I don’t think that’ll be extremely soon.

Feel free to tell me why I’m crazy or how you’d rank them in the comments below.

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July 18, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Louis Coleman (46) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

These numbers just aren’t working out. It’s frustrating me because no matter how bad some of the Royals pitching staff has been, I’d like to keep the ones who have potential. So many of them have potential, but there’s simply not enough room.

Ned Yost has indicated that he would like to carry 12 pitchers and four bench players into the season. That means five starters and seven relievers, but however I slice it, a potentially valuable commodity gets left out. Actually, more than one.

It’s an unusual feeling for Royals fans, to feel like we have too much talent for one roster. I made a comment the other day on Twitter that the 2012 Omaha Storm Chaser bullpen might be the second best bullpen in baseball.

Here’s how it breaks down. I believe the five holdovers from last year’s starting rotation will win their jobs back; that leaves seven spots in the bullpen. Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, and Jose Mijares are all pretty much locked in. That leaves three spots for Aaron Crow (who Yost has indicated will stay in the bullpen if he can’t make the rotation), Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Luis Mendoza, Blake Wood, and Kelvin Herrera. The other candidates seemingly have no shot—and frankly, I don’t think Wood’s got much of a shot either.

Aaron Crow. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Six guys for three spots. Each guy brings something a little different to the table. Collins is another lefty. Crow has great strike out potential. Coleman’s a steady hand with good deception. Mendoza’s got versatility to throw multiple innings and start occasionally. Wood has the power sinker to get ground balls. And Herrera might have the best stuff of all of them. So, who gets left out? And more importantly, what are the ramifications of those decisions.

We have to assume at this point that Crow will get one of the remaining spots. Yost has essentially said as much. He was an All Star in the bullpen, and I think Yost doesn’t want to play with Crow’s confidence by sending him to AAA to work as a starter, which is what I think they should do. At some point, they will have to decide what they have in Crow and give him a chance to be that, whatever it is. If it’s a starter, they have to let him try to be a starter instead of shuffling him back and forth between roles.

Anyway, despite what one lowly, rotund blogger thinks, it looks like the Royals will give one of those bullpen spots to Crow. That leaves two. I’m pretty certain that Yost will want to carry more than one lefty in the pen. That means that as long as Collins isn’t terrible in the spring, he’ll get one of the spots. He was supposedly very effective in the intrasquad matchup, and people are raving about a mechanical adjustment that helped improved his command. We’ll see.

That leaves one spot for three talented pitchers … and Blake Wood (ZING!). Some are not as high on Mendoza as I am (if thinking a guy can excel in a swingman role is being “high” on him). I find value in a pitcher who can move between bullpen and rotation, throw some strikes, keep a team in a game, and who the team doesn’t have to worry about in terms of his future. The Royals can use Mendoza however they want. And he’s out of options, which along with his versatility, is the greatest point in his favor.

I have no answer for who gets the last spot. I don’t think it will be Wood or Herrera because Wood isn’t good enough and both have options. It comes down to Coleman or Mendoza. Coleman pitched very well last year. I like him a lot as a pitcher. But he can’t make a start if the Royals need him to, and he probably can’t take over in the third inning and bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen with three or four innings of work.

On the flip side, Mendoza isn’t as proven as Coleman. Michael Engel wrote a very scathing critique of Mendoza that pointed out his greatest flaw: he doesn’t strike out many hitters. Consequently, his numbers from AAA look a little deceiving. Coleman, on the other hand does strike guys out.

Ultimately, performance in the spring might decide this conundrum. But if all considered pitch well enough, the Royals have to ask themselves some tough questions. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, who fills the long relief role? It could be no one, but that might wear out the bullpen quickly. It could be Crow. But he’s never filled that role before, and they have his future to consider.  Also, he spent the last half-season being pretty ineffective. If they choose Coleman over Mendoza, they probably lose Mendoza to the waiver wire.

If they choose Mendoza, they will gamble that he can sustain his performance from last season without the benefit of high strike out numbers.* It’s a pretty risky gamble, made slightly better by the Royals’ good defense. Note please that one of the criticisms of Mendoza is that he won’t be able to maintain his low BABIP from 2011, .268. By contrast, Coleman’s was .246. In fact, looking a little closer at the numbers makes Coleman’s season from last year look a little less shiny (4.30 FIP, 3.92 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9), just like Mendoza.

*I wrote this before Sunday’s game in which Mendoza and Herrera pitched very well.

I’m so torn about this decision, and I don’t even have to make it. Luckily, spring performance should help decide. But I’m going to do the ballsy thing and give my thoughts right now, before seeing a pitch.* If I had the choice to make, and I had to make it right now, I’m taking Mendoza. I think having someone to fill the swingman role is important with such a suspect rotation, and keeping Mendoza gives the Royals the chance to have both pitchers if they need them moving forward—say if Broxton gets traded midseason or someone gets hurt. If Mendoza is ineffective, they can cut him and bring Coleman up without too much damage being done.

*Again, I wrote this before Sunday’s game. Though it wasn’t on television so technically I still haven’t seen a pitch.

Feel free to openly criticize that decision and let me know who you would keep and why.

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May 22, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s safe to say Greg Holland had quite the breakout season last year. There weren’t too many who saw his strong performance coming, possibly no one at all. Throughout the season, I was still having trouble grasping what he was accomplishing on the mound. A quick glance at his 2011 stat line will show just the type of dominance I am talking about. Holland racked up 74 strikeouts in only 60 innings of work, good for an 11.1 K/9 ratio. He notched 5 wins and 4 saves and recorded a miniscule 1.80 ERA. On top of all of those terrific numbers, he only gave up 37 hits and had a remarkable WHIP of 0.933. In my eyes, he clearly had the best season of any Royals pitcher on the staff.

While Holland had a spectacular 2011 campaign, his 2010 season did not go nearly as well. He pitched in 15 games and his ERA approached 7, settling at 6.75. His WHIP was also at an alarming 1.661. He walked 8 guys in 18.2 innings for a 3.9 BB/9 ratio, which isn’t good, but is also a small sample size. However, he wasn’t all that bad in 2010, as he struck out batters at an 11.1 K/9 clip. Even though he would have much rather had a better season, statistically speaking, he still illustrated to everyone how capable he is of dominating batters with his electric fastball and sharp slider.

I got the idea to write about Greg Holland after listening to the Danny Parkins February 22nd pod cast regarding 3 top Royals bloggers, including our own Michael Engel, and their takes on the 2012 Royals. I have not heard much about Holland heading into spring training, which was mentioned by those on the show, and it strikes me as odd. Here is a guy who absolutely tore up the league last year and slammed the door on any team who even thought of starting a rally. Also, it seems Jonathan Broxton has already been anointed as the 8th inning guy, and like those on the pod cast, I was curious as to what exactly warranted this decision. It is early, and certainly anything can change at this point, but it doesn’t seem feasible to grant Broxton the 8th inning. He is coming off September elbow surgery and has a lot to prove. I hope he can regain his former All-Star form, but until he has proved himself, why not go with someone who clearly established himself last year as an elite reliever?

Holland is very capable of becoming a closer in the future. I would be a very strong advocate of this move as it only seems like a matter of time before the Royals end the union between Joakim Soria and the 9th inning. Holland shines in moments where the game is on the line and has displayed the confidence needed to be a shutdown closer. I’ve heard talk of trying him out in the rotation, but I think a guy with only 7 career starts in professional baseball has found a niche in the backend of the bullpen. Why mess with something that seems to be working, right?

He is mainly a two-pitch pitcher and that translates into a very effective reliever when those pitches are dominant. Holland’s slider is one of the most effective sliders in all of baseball and it has even caught the eye of Kings of Kauffman Senior Editor, Michael Engel. Engel also wrote a great piece on Holland last year and nicknamed him “Dirty South” due to his roots in Asheville, North Carolina. You can revisit Engel’s article here.

If you can’t tell by now, I’m very high on Greg Holland. I believe we can count on him to perform very well again this summer, and help solidify the pen if Soria has another rocky year and Broxton is unable to stay healthy.

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I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

Expect to keep seeing this quite a bit in 2012. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

I’m going to repeat this once more (and for the last time), so if you’ve seen it before, skip ahead. Dayton Moore and the Royals have been busy this offseason. Not busy looking for starting pitchers and not busy looking for new bats. They’ve been busy finding the pieces to finish up their killer bullpen.

But really, there weren’t a lot of moves to be made. The Royals bullpen only increased by two members, as Jonathan Broxton became the new, well, whatever role he’ll supposedly fill and Jose Mijares became lefty insurance. There were lots of rumors about using the Broxton addition to move Joakim Soria and leave Greg Holland to closing, but that’s all in the past. Right now, we’re barely different than last year’s team. Let’s just get a quick recap of where that team stood in several categories with regards to the rest of the American League:

Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th (4.70)
Wins in Relief: 3rd (26)
Losses in Relief: 13th (26)
Save Percentage: 10th (63%)
Holds: 10th (58)
Inherited Runners Scored Percentage: 2nd (25%)
Games Pitched on Zero Days Rest: 2nd lowest (56)
Average Outs Recorded Per Outing: 1st (3.6)

If you have any questions about those rankings, throw them out in the comments. All I know is this paints a very muddled picture. Was the bullpen good or bad? Was it good or bad as a result of how rough the rotation was? Can we really blame the bullpen when they had quite a bit of work over the course of the year due to that rotation?

What it seems like to me is that they did a respectable job with the hand they were dealt. Manager Ned Yost didn’t overwork them too badly, though the consecutive days stat could be biased a bit toward one or two pitchers. I had no idea that they had done so well with inherited runners, but the fact that they allowed that many runs, compiled that many losses, and blew that many saves makes me reconsider my acclaim at their success. Of course, as the season wore on, young arms got tired and handing the ball to the bullpen became less of a sure thing. Nonetheless, how can we think about this bullpen going into 2012? Are they truly killers?

Well, I pulled out three projection systems for 10 pitchers that could (or should) be a part of the 2012 bullpen. I’ll use ZiPS, Bill James, and RotoChamp to get three different perspectives. And I’ll try to show them in a way that’s not totally confusing, using their 2010 and 2011 lines alongside their projections to get an idea of what we’re seeing.

Let’s start with Joakim Soria because, well, who else do you start with when you think of the Royals’ bullpen?

For the most part, projections show a return to form from 2011 and more of what we expect from Soria. And I see no reason to debate that, as he’s shown us he can stick in there when healthy, so let’s leave it at that. Soria is a stable player for the bullpen.

We’ll turn to Jonathan Broxton next.

Broxton’s going to be an interesting one to watch. After being nails for the Dodgers earlier in his career, he started to falter the last couple, including a bruised elbow that sidelined him for most of 2011. Between that and the move to the AL, it’s hard to get a read on how he’ll perform. All signs point to him being healthy for 2012 and ready to pitch for the Royals, however. And all three projection systems show that in their analysis. While they’re more bullish on Broxton than I am (or than I expected them to be), I think we can expect solid numbers from Broxton. And if he can pitch consistently throughout the season, he could be a crucial piece for close games in late innings.

Greg Holland

Everyone expects a little regression from Holland’s ridiculously good 2011 campaign. His BABIP last season was .250, which is plenty low and offsets the 3.77 he found himself with in 2010. Settling at a midpoint seems like a good idea, and that’s what the projections have done. I expect Holland to sit closer to the RotoChamp projection than the others, however, even though their hits/9 is a little low. Holland will still be a crucial piece of the bullpen, but maybe not quite as amazing as he was last season. The battle between him, Coleman, and Broxton for the “set-up role” will be one that could go all season if Holland doesn’t end up replacing Soria as the closer should Soria get injured.*

*Knock on wood. Every piece of wood. Even Blake Wood.

Blake Wood

I’ll be honest and say that I have no idea what to expect from Wood. He was extremely frustrating to see pitch at times, but surprisingly productive at other times. And I guess that just means we should expect something similar to last year. Every projection system shows some amount of regression, but I’d expect Wood to sit around an ERA of 4 and to be neither great nor horrible, providing solid relief when you least expect it and poor relief when you need outs. This all leans on him making the roster, of course, but he should be a likely candidate unless he spoils it for himself in Spring Training.

Louis Coleman

Coleman was the guy that always made me think he was right there the whole time, just about ready to break free, but restrained by his high home run numbers. He still had an amazing season considering he missed almost a month of the season and will be another important piece of the bullpen in 2012. I would guess he can take a step forward on those home runs numbers while staying roughly constant in every other way. Bill James’ projection seems to be the closest for me, showing exactly that. With a step forward in the home run area for Coleman, the back four righties of the bullpen (Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman) should be a formidable set for opposing lineups to face as they try to rally.

Aaron Crow

For whatever reason, Bill James didn’t project Crow, but it doesn’t matter. I see Crow regressing a bit, sticking closer to his late-season numbers than his initial ones, but he can still be an important part of the bullpen. We have some projection issues here, as RotoChamp saw Crow as a starter, but the numbers are similar nonetheless. I think the ZiPS projection is a bit bearish, but Crow should maintain his strikeouts and potentially his walks as well, staying roughly in the same point as he was last year. Like Coleman, if Crow can cut his home run numbers a bit, he’ll make it into that upper tier of relievers. But he’ll still be a useful arm nonetheless. And if they’re thinking about trying him as a starter, he could become a middle relief sort of guy, as Wood might be the only other useful righty candidate for such a role. The prognosis? Still useful, but maybe less of the early Crow and more of the later Crow.

Kelvin Herrera

I’m really intrigued by Herrera’s chances, as he could either go the Jeremy Jeffress route or he could stick as another strong righty reliever. If you’re counting at home, that would mean the Royals would have seven average-to-great righty relievers in their bullpen, so I don’t know if we can count on them all making it. But Herrera has shown strong numbers in the minors, flashing a 1.60 ERA in 2011 across high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a September call-up to Kansas City. He usually strikes out about 9/9 IP, and while that should continue this year, I expect closer to 8/9 IP. Like Wood, Herrera’s case probably hinges on his Spring Training performance, but his existence alone exhibits why the Royals have a good reason to rely on their deep, deep bullpen.

And on to the lefties.

Tim Collins

Collins will be another interesting one, as he seemed to be fatigued by the time the season ended. He pitched in 68 games, eight more than Soria and 11 more than Crow, which likely contributed to that fatigue. And Yost seemed to be content with (over)using Collins no matter his fatigue. Collins has some legitimate competition in Jose Mijares this Spring Training, with Everett Teaford also available, so the team won’t have to rely on him quite as much. Still, more competition is better than less, and Collins will at least have to perform or be sent down, hopefully keeping the bullpen stocked with a capable left-handed reliever.

Jose Mijares

Mijares is a guy that I vouched for when the Royals signed him. It’s definitely good to try many options, and, as I said above, it gives a bit of insurance and competition for Collins. Mijares was a great reliever for the Twins a few years back, but his weight and other issues led to less use and less productivity as the seasons wore on until Minnesota dropped him this offseason. It’s a good flyer to take on a guy that could be a huge boost should he return to form. And if he doesn’t do that, no harm, no foul. Collins and Teaford, plus Mike Montgomery or other lefty prospects, could fill that role.

Everett Teaford

Teaford’s another guy that got some partial projections as a starter, but he should only exist as a spot starter and mostly as a lefty reliever option. He’ll also have to fight his way onto the roster, and he’s probably less likely to make the roster than Collins and maybe Mijares. I think Teaford was a bit lucky last season, but he’s got the ability to put in about what Bill James’ projection shows when the Royals need him. It’s just another sign of the depth this season.

What we can really take from this, as I’ve said before, is that the Royals have considerably more depth and insurance in their bullpen for 2012 than they did going into 2011. There are more players than can ably contribute when needed, and that should make it easier to keep the bullpen performing all year. As some prospects move forward, there should only be more options, allowing for extreme selectivity going forward. Even though Broxton’s contract is only a year, this all points to the team being prepared for a great bullpen for many, many years as they approach the start of their window of competition.

So, while the bullpen was a great point of strength in 2011, it should be as strong or stronger in 2012 given the number of options and the players’ performance in previous seasons. The projection systems are understandably mixed, but even with some of their lower projections, the bullpen will be solid for this season. Considering how they ranked in some categories last season, there’s room for improvement. And there should be improvement.

Of course, the wild card in all of this is new pitching coach Dave Eiland. He may change the pitching strategies of some younger players, and we’ll have to keep track of any changes in performance or style from 2011 to 2012. Just another thing to keep in mind.

Has Moore built a “killer bullpen” for 2012? Well, yes and no. He didn’t add much to build that bullpen. But it also didn’t need a ton of additions to become a killer. Broxton and Mijares should only add depth in two areas where competition and number of options will only help the team to stay in it throughout 2012. And with a rotation that’s questionable and difficult to project, having a strong bullpen with many potential members can only be a good thing.

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In 2011 the Royals bullpen finished 9^th in all of baseball with an 8.13 K/9 and did that after throwing a combined 508+ innings, only one of nine teams to amass that high of an inning total. Given that it’s no surprise why Dayton Moore targeted free agent additions Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares in the offseason – if there isn’t any way of getting more innings out of the rotation, then the bullpen needs more arms.

But, if the 2012 season truly is one that the Royals can make a run at the AL Central crown, what bullpen arm is best served to fill the role of closer?

Joakim Soria. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Joakim Soria has long been the subject of trades rumors and rightfully so. On a team that has no real shot at contention, an elite level closer is more of a luxury than a need. It’s been argued in a number of places – most loudly by Greg Schaum – that Soria’s best value to the team is tied more to what he can bring back in a trade than what he provides throwing the ninth inning twice a week. But at this point, is Soria’s value so low that he might not even be the best option to close this year? (more…)

However, on this day, the whiff I’m getting holds the strong scent of processed deli meat. (more…)

• Yesterday, there were a lot of rumors of the A’s shopping Gio Gonzalez and targeting Wil Myers. Buster Olney mentioned that Trevor Cahill could be another option from Oakland. I’m still not sold …
• Myers is mentioned in a potential deal for James Shields from Tampa as well. They may also want Joakim Soria and Christian Colon along with Myers.
• Dayton Moore on Myers: “I’d like to keep Wil Myers’ name out of the paper as much as possible.“
• Apparently, the Royals missed out on Derek Lowe before Cleveland traded for him.
• Since the Blue Jays just acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox, that probably ends their interest in Soria or Greg Holland.
• Ken Rosenthal reported last night that Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo interviewed for the vacant General Manager’s position with Houston.

While the Royals might not be very active, given that they’re not interested in spending in free agency and have a lot of the lineup set, there aren’t quite the rumors flying like last year’s meetings. Nonetheless, there is interest in Joakim Soria and Greg Holland, particularly from Toronto.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Royals are “downplaying” but would likely move Soria for a starting pitcher and would listen on Holland. The acquisition of Jonathan Broxton and collection of young arms in the bullpen make it easier for the Royals to trade either or both and have little lost in the effectiveness of the bullpen overall.

Rany Jazayerli feels a big trade brewing – he calls it Dayton Radar, or “Daydar”.

Greg Schaum of Pinetar Press thinks that David Lough and Clint Robinson will be traded this week and given an opportunity to play elsewhere. Can’t say that I disagree with that. Both are blocked by better players in the starting lineup or overshadowed by progressing prospects on their way up. He also thinks Jed Lowrie might be a fit, since the Red Sox seem to be shopping him.

Bob Dutton from the KC Star is in Dallas and will have a live chat today at 1 p.m., according to his Twitter feed.

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Photo by Chris Williams/Icon SMI

It was announced today by baseball media types that the Royals have signed right-handed reliever Jonathan Broxton to a one-year, $4 million deal with an extra $1 million in incentives based on games pitched. Broxton, a 6’4″, 300-pound 27-year old and former Los Angeles Dodger, just ended a two-year contract that paid him $4 million in 2010 and $7 million in 2011. It was reported that more than ten teams were likely in on Broxton before he signed with Kansas City, so the Royals must have offered something significant – money, a guaranteed spot on the Opening Day roster, or something else – to get him signed. I’ll run through Broxton’s history and the implications for the Royals after the jump.

(more…)

That started the floods gates (with reason) of Royals fans and bloggers alike with hearts all a-flutter that maybe, just maybe, Dayton Moore was actually going to take a run at the veteran right-hander. Then, a little later on Tuesday, the second bomb dropped, and it was reported that the Royals had interest in Mark Buehrle.

Now, the true level of interest could be nothing more than Dayton Moore doing his due diligence, and doing what every responsible GM should, and just testing the waters of a couple veteran pitchers that would both be sure upgrades to a under-talented starting rotation. (more…)

Now, I think that’s a fine choice. Chen was arguably the best starter for the Royals this season. What made me think was a post on Twitter from someone this morning, whose Twitter handle and name I don’t recall, that argued for Greg Holland over Chen. And it made my brain start cranking about whether that’s a good argument or not. I’m not sure there’s an easy answer.

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After a consistent rise through the Royals farm system after signing as a 5th round pick in 2009 out of LSU, Coleman took his 2.16 career minor league ERA to Kansas City with him and produced a successful rookie season.

In 59.2 innings in the big leagues, Coleman’s efforts resulted in a 2.76 ERA and 9.65 K/9. If not for Greg Holland, he may have been the most consistent arm out of the Royals bullpen in 2011.

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It’s just the way life works. It’s the same with religion or politics or science or whatever you want. There are always certain folks that either can’t wrap their minds around a new concept or don’t want to accept that what they’ve believed all this time has been wrong. So, they reject the new information.

I’m not one to tell people what to think. Or, at least I try not to do so. Instead, I want to talk about how to discuss the current Royals with these folks. How do you get across the improvements the team is making and the abilities of some of the players on the field without using newer stats? Well, I gave it a shot…

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This month’s mailbag will be a little shorter than last because I got two questions that called for rather long-winded answers, and I didn’t think pushing 2,000 words to answer questions was something people would want to read. I’m not that other guy.

As always if you want to join in on the fun, drop us a line at KoKMailbag@gmail.com. Now, on to the emails:

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Greg Holland 1983 Topps style from A Hair Off Square

One day, when the Royals are playing in late October, I can hear the voice of Tim McCarver saying “Greg Holland into the game, who you may know was the first draft pick by Dayton Moore to debut in the big leagues. Not Danny Duffy, not Eric Hosmer. Greg Holland.”

Then he’ll throw it to Joe Buck while the Royals preserve the lead and win the pennant/World Series/what have you.

That’ll be a pretty cool memory one day, but Holland has a chance to be much more than a footnote or a blip on Dayton Moore’s resume.

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Holland is a Royal once more. (Minda Haas)

This morning, the Royals announced that beloved speedster and quote magician* Jarrod Dyson will be sent to Omaha, where he will fill the roster spot shoes of Greg Holland. Holland, in turn, will be making his triumphant return to the Kansas City bullpen. While many, including myself, thought Holland might have a shot to start the season in the majors, he has instead seen some further AAA seasoning as the Royals’ bullpen toiled.

*”That’s what speed do.”

The move surprised me at first, but I quickly realized the reasoning behind this and what Royals management may have been thinking.

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Nobody has been reported to be in the best shape of their life yet, but I’m sure that’s coming.  My hunch is that Brayan Pena is the first such reference when it happens (and it always happens).

But that’s not important.  Onto the news:

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Disclaimer: small sample size caveats apply.
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It wasn’t a huge issue at the time since Robinson Tejeda was dealing with some health issues, so the extra arm in the ‘pen helped fill that gap while he the Royals decided if he needed a DL stint to deal with it.  It turned out that Tejeda needed time off, so he hit the disabled list with biceps tendinitis and Kila Ka’aihue took his place on the roster and order was restored.  But when Jose Guillen was designated for assignment on Thursday, the Royals didn’t promote a hitter from Omaha to replace him, rather, they sent Philip Humber to Kansas City, another reliever.  It’s like a second sequel to a bad horror movie, only this eight man bullpen creates more problems than it solves and needs to go.
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