The Royals hope to celebrate often in 2012. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Royals fans are infatuated with the 2012 incarnation of their favorite team, and rightfully so. Simply looking at the roster full of top young prospects makes me want to re-enact a patented Royals game-winning mosh pit from last year*.

*I love that walk-0ff celebration photo. The first thing I noticed about this photo to the right was Joakim Soria soaring approximately eight feet off the ground like a frog jumping lily pads. But then I noticed something even better: Eric Hosmer in the middle of the pile, being swarmed like a superhero that requires ten mere mortals to subdue.

But we already know what Royals Nation thinks about this team. Their (my) eager anticipation is palpable. We see the Process taking shaped and fully expect the Royals spend a healthy portion of the summer in contention.

However, there are better sources for unbiased prognostication than a group of unrepentant homers. In fact, there is even a “best” source. Vegas.

The sports books of Las Vegas have the most to lose from their prognostications, which means that they’ve undoubtedly hired the best in the world to handle the job. The Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd published some 2012 lines on the Ball Star blog this week, and correctly pointed out that the Royals are still considered long-shots to win in 2012.

But my curiosity immediately led me to wonder what those odds meant, especially in terms of wins and losses. So I went to sportsbook.com and decided to break down the odds on the three Royals-related future propositions.

1. Royals 30/1 odds to win the World Series

The Royals are given 30 to 1 odds to win the World Series in 2012, which even in my estimation seems a bit optimistic. They are lumped with five other teams (Marlins, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, and Brewers) with the 13th best odds. Those preceding five teams combined to post a 401-407 record last season, good for a .496 winning percentage or (roughly) an average finish of 80-82.

Of course a lot has changed since way back in 2011. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Nationals acquired Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson (and Rick Ankiel! and Mark Teahen!), The Marlins picked up Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, the Dodgers are all set to remove the suffocating albatross that was Frank McCourt from their around necks, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood.

If anything, overall, it looks like the group has gotten a bit better. The Royals sit with relatively impressive company.

The 30/1 odds also place the Royals somewhere between the 13th and 18th best teams in baseball. In 2011, the 13th best team was the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished with an 82-79 record. The 18th best teams were the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds, who both finished with 79-83 records.

Sure I’m only looking at one sports book, but I’ll gladly cling to the narrative that Vegas expects the Royals to be around a .500 team next season. In fact I intend to take that expectation as gospel.

2. Royals 15/1 to Win the American League Pennant

All five teams that the Royals share World Series odds with are in the National League. But they will really be judged by their contemporaries in the American League.

As you can see, the Royals are considered 15 to 1 odds to win the AL. That figure puts the Royals comfortably between the Tampa Bay Rays (15/2) and the Toronto Blue Jays (20/1) among American League hopefuls, and positions them as considerable favorites over fellow AL Central  rivals Cleveland (30/1), Chicago (40/1), and Minnesota (40/1).

The odds also indicate that the Royals are expected to be the 7th best team in the American League this year. What exactly does that mean? It means that they are looking a .500 record right in the eyes. In 2011, the 7th best team in the American League was the Blue Jays, whose overall record was 81-81.

Their status as the prognosticated runner-up in the AL Central is noteworthy as well. Cleveland, in particular, is a surprise. The Indians finished with an 80-82 record and picked up Ubaldo Jimenez in a deadline deal last season. They also acquired Derek Lowe and the immortal Roberto Hernandez Heredia, who both looks and pitches just like Fausto Carmona, only three years older.

Nevertheless, it’s good to see that the affable members of Royals Nation aren’t only ones predicting the Royals will outplay every team in the division who doesn’t start Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

3. Eric Hosmer 50/1 to Lead the Majors in Home Runs

While we’re looking at the lines, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight Hosmer’s perceived chances of leading the major leagues in home runs. He is considered to be the 25th most likely candidate to accomplish the feat, as he’s tied with the Angels’ Mark Trumbo with his 50 to 1 odds.

Last season the 25th best home run hitter in the major leagues cracked 29 jacks. His name was David Ortiz, and he ended 2011 with a .953 OPS. His name was also Joey Votto, who put up a robust .947 OPS to go with his 29 homers. And also Nelson Cruz, who got his 29 long balls in only 475 at bats, and went on to hit another eight home runs in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, his name was also Josh Willingham and Mark Trumbo. Either way, I like the idea of Eric Hosmer hitting 29 home runs in 2012.

Sure, it would be fair to argue that this whole endeavor has been wildly unscientific. Based on the fact that I only looked at one source, you would be right. But there are still a couple weeks to go until spring training begins and this seems like relatively hopeful news. If nothing else just consider it more vindication for that gut feeling you probably already have. So let’s just kick back and take a moment to think about Eric Hosmer, with the help of a few breaks and some stiff breezes to right center field, making a certifiable September run at Steve Balboni’s epic franchise home run record while playing on a .500 team.

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Sure small markets like the Royals want players like the three players listed who are still young and clubs can control them for inexpensive costs which these markets need. Fan bases want you to make a deal that turns you from middle of the pack team to contending for a wildcard or division title. But it begs the question should you clear out your farm system for a guy who you might only have for a year or two?

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The Royalman Report, LIVE Sundays at 7 pm CST

The Royals didn’t make a big splash at the Winter Meetings,  but there were plenty of rumors, all of which made for interesting conversation.

To help us with that, Nathaniel Stoltz from FanSided’s SeedlingsToStars.com talked with us about various topics, but primarily about the value of prospects to an organization and within trades (such as Wil Myers), as well as the impact of the CBA and how teams will build farm systems going forward.

We also discussed the big headlines of the week as well as the potential of signing Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and others to long-term extensions, especially in light of other such agreements.

Click the embedded player below to listen to this week’s show or you can download the mp3.

If you want your business featured during breaks on the Royalman Report, contact us at 816-394-9578 or email royalmanreport@gmail.com.  

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If you’re the type that prefers to see the in-studio video stream…check it out below:

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• Yesterday, there were a lot of rumors of the A’s shopping Gio Gonzalez and targeting Wil Myers. Buster Olney mentioned that Trevor Cahill could be another option from Oakland. I’m still not sold …
• Myers is mentioned in a potential deal for James Shields from Tampa as well. They may also want Joakim Soria and Christian Colon along with Myers.
• Dayton Moore on Myers: “I’d like to keep Wil Myers’ name out of the paper as much as possible.“
• Apparently, the Royals missed out on Derek Lowe before Cleveland traded for him.
• Since the Blue Jays just acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox, that probably ends their interest in Soria or Greg Holland.
• Ken Rosenthal reported last night that Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo interviewed for the vacant General Manager’s position with Houston.

Earlier, reports stated that the Royals would listen to offers involving either Joakim Soria or Greg Holland, with starting pitching being the primary target.

A full afternoon at the winter meetings has popped up a few more rumors concerning the Royals:

• The Royals are one of five teams reportedly interested in Carlos Guillen as a utility player. Guillen has struggled with injuries in recent years, and will be 36 years old on opening day. He has played virtually every position on the diamond and has a career 111 OPS+.
• Gio Gonzalez of Oakland has been mentioned as a potential target for the Royals. There have always been whispers and mentions of Gonzalez as someone the Royals would be interested in, especially on Twitter. Oakland would likely be after prospects for the 26-year-old lefty.
• Another starter that the Royals may be after is Jeremy Guthrie. With a free agent class of pitchers being both highly in demand and somewhat underwhelming, the Royals are more likely to get a pitcher via trade rather than overpay for a starter. Guthrie looks like a right-handed poor man’s Mark Buehrle and could be a fine alternative if the price was right. The Orioles would have to get pitching in return, according to reports.
• In case you’re wondering, former Royals pitcher Jeff Francis is drawing some attention on the market, as well.
• According to Bob Dutton’s chat earlier today, the Royals are looking for another situational left-handed reliever. There are also “no plans – none” to move Joakim Soria to the rotation. He also has a guess of a mid-January contract extension for Alex Gordon in the 4 year/$30 million territory.