Is Joakim Soria on the Trade Block? (AP Photo)

You’ve probably heard the news that some teams have inquired about the availability of Joakim Soria.  Most recently, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox have expressed an interest, there are rumors about the Angels, and there may be others we don’t know about.  It’s obvious the Royals are shopping him around and if you’re like me, you’re both excited and highly concerned about what the Royals might receive in return for him if they pull the trigger on a trade.

While Soria is not yet a candidate for the Hall of Fame, he is arguably one of the top ten Rule 5 draft picks of all-time, he owns career marks of 2.40 ERA / 181 ERA+, 9.7 K/9, 1.043 WHIP (these numbers aren’t from his best season, I’m talking about his entire five year major league career), he averages 37 saves per season, he is a two time All-Star and his name has appeared on Cy Young and MVP ballots.  In other words, he’s pretty stinkin’ good.  Would the Royals seriously consider trading a young, successful pitcher whose best days may still be ahead of him?  Believe it or not, there is precedent for the Royals to do just that. (more…)

My journalism professor always gave us two rules to live by: Don’t use a question in your headlines and don’t use a question to start your lede. They’re both the lazy-step-brother of journo-writing and it was taught to us that it showed the apathy of the writer towards his or her own story. But, I don’t care, I’m going to go ahead and break one of those rules anyway.

You see in breaking one of the hard-and-fast rules of Prof. Lofflin I’m not so much pointing to the negative side of writing, but opening my arms and saying “what the heck” to the Royals and their start to the 2011 season. It’s been excited, it’s been well played, and it’s shown the kind of progress in individual players that a growing organization needs in order to setup for future success.

In other words: What. The. Heck. (more…)

Apparently though, it also takes time, and lots of it.

With last week’s column there was a little bit a ruffled-feather with one of our loyal readers. I still have little reason to believe that the Royals’ Process needed or needs to take eight years to fully complete itself, but there it was in the comment section*, the reminder that it took the Minnesota Twins a lot of time as well. For this I must please ask one small favor to Royals fans and fans in general of any organization: stop pointing to the Twins as the lighthouse that shines the way to baseball supremacy. (more…)

So, when the Royals began increasing their payroll starting in 2007, it looked like their small market standards might begin including random free agent signings. In one year, the payroll increased from around $47 million to $67 million. Part of that resulted from the Gil Meche and Octavio Dotel signings in the previous offseason. Things kept rolling after that year, as the Royals signed Jose Guillen. The payrolls in the next few years were $58, $70, and $75 million.

Well, unfortunately, money doesn’t directly translate to wins. From 2007-2010, the Royals averaged 69 wins. While better than the three-year stretch before that, it’s not as productive as you would hope. From 2007-2009, the Twins had a comparable or lower payroll and won an average of 85 games. Basically, while the payroll didn’t create as bad of a situation as the Cubs’ did, it was still pretty frustrating.
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Gil Meche (from mindahaas.net)

In a surprise announcement today around noon, Gil Meche announced his retirement from baseball.  Meche was entering the final season of a five year contract with the Royals.

Meche was expected to fill a relief role in 2011 after making 11 appearances out of the bullpen in 2010.  He almost had shoulder surgery after nine starts that some believe could have put an end to his career at that time anyway.  Meche wanted to continue to try to pitch.

When Dayton Moore took over as general manager, Gil Meche was the first big free agent signing of his tenure.  Many laughed at the five year $55 million contract he gave Meche, but over the first two seasons, Moore looked brilliant for the move.  Meche threw a combined 416.1 innings and made 68 starts after being labeled as “injury prone.”

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Some of those players are eligible for arbitration and will be non-tendered during the winter.  Gage checked in to discuss some of those options yesterday.  Bruce Chen is officially a free agent, so he’s included in that number because the Royals do have an exclusive window in which to negotiate an extension or new contract for him, but he’s unlikely to sign anything in the near future so that trims a spot.

Jason Kendall and David DeJesus are both currently on the 60 day disabled list and thus don’t count against the 40 man roster during the season, though they do have to be reinstated to the roster, so two spots will have to be cleared.

We’ll start breaking down the 40 man roster by first looking at the pitchers.
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And thus the Gil Meche Experiment was born.

At the first mention of it, I did not like the idea at all.  Fortunately for Meche and the Royals, my opinion was wrong.
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As all fans do, I have some preferences for who we should keep on the big league roster, and who we should jettison as we look toward next season: (more…)

Noticeably absent from that list is Texas League Player of the Year Mike Moustakas.
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Well,that’s partially correct – the shoulder still does require surgery I’m sure, but Meche seems to think that his shoulder can handle bullpen workloads. It’s crazy, it’s risky, but at the same time, what does Meche have to lose? He’s guaranteed for $12 million in 2011. The shoulder’s messed up already anyway. There was a solid chance that going under the knife this late would have cost him most of, if not all, of 2011.
(more…)

News is going around that Gil Meche will require surgery on his shoulder and miss the rest of 2010.  He was on the 60-day DL and appearing in two rehab starts in the minor leagues, including a start on Monday in Omaha where he got rocked in four innings, giving up seven runs.
(more…)

MLBTradeRumors.com passed along the first hints of potential Mets/Royals discussions, via Ken Rosenthal.  You’ll notice the names on the Royals side: Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, and Kyle Farnsworth.

And while no specific offers have been leaked or made, that’s a 3-for-3 deal whose finalization would surprise nobody.

And that’s the scary part.
(more…)

Jarrod Dyson continues his trek back up through the system, as he’s been promoted to Double A Northwest Arkansas after some time in the Arizona Rookie League and Wilmington rehabbing an ankle sprain.  Dyson finished 2009 in the Texas League, producing a mere .649 OPS but he did steal 37 bases in 43 opportunities.  With he and Derrick Robinson at the top of the lineup, the Naturals have some wicked speed at the top of the lineup.
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The Royals are using the term “precautionary” and say he should be able to make his next start on Friday back in Kansas City against Oakland. Considering Gil Meche hasn’t pitched since May 25 and Luke Hochevar‘s last start was June 11 (and neither have done any rehab assignments while on the DL), I really hope this isn’t a bigger problem than it’s being reported as.
(more…)

Montgomery’s a different story. After dominating at Wilmington, he’s been pitching well for Northwest Arkansas in Double A until running into some elbow soreness at the end of May. Since then, he’s made one start on a pitch count and spent time on two disabled list stints.
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Now, on with the show: the Royals returned to Minnesota’s Target Field this week, then traveled to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati to restart interleague play.
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Well let’s just go take a look-see, eh?
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So what happened next? Is the honeymoon over?  Would the Royals remember that they are, in fact, still the Royals?  Well read on, as we recap the week’s happenings and trends:
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The series that my responses were intended for, Around The Blogs In 30 Days, seems to have died off as their focus has turned to other things.  I don’t blame them in the least for moving on from the series, and I must say that they do an excellent job covering the Mets on a daily basis.  That said, it seems like a shame to not share my responses somewhere so I thought I’d publish them here.  If nothing else it has been fun to look back at my responses before the season started in relation to where things stand with the Royals today.  I hope you enjoy reading the following questions and answers which appear exactly as they did when I sent them back to Mets Paradise back on April 3rd. (more…)

I’m not going to get too deep into analysis, but I agree that Hillman needed to go. (more…)

(more…)

All told, the Royals went 3-3 which, considering some of the performances of certain pitchers, is a small miracle. So it could be worse. But it could be a lot better. If it doesn’t improve, more people may be following Roman Colon out of Kansas City.

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As Royals fans we’ve seen some bad bullpens in the last 15 seasons but this one just defies explanation.  The good news is that they cannot collectively pitch any worse as a unit than they have in the first six games.  I don’t believe it is possible, and if I did I would have to check out on this team to maintain my sanity.  When it comes to the bullpen, things should and will get better.  I have to believe that.

The bad news is that while the bullpen should “improve” the rotation doesn’t figure to maintain their current pace for very long.  We also can’t lose sight of the fact that the offense ranks 21st out of 30 in terms of runs scored with 23.  The baserunning, thanks to the stylings of 3B coach Dave Owen, continues to be an absolute joke.  The defense may be slightly improved, not ready to make an official determination on that, but still has a long way to go.

Before I launch into some links, get back on the bright side of things for just a minute.  The Royals 23 runs scored gives them 10 more than the Houston Astros have scored in their first six games.  That’s right 6 games, 13 runs for Houston and they also have the 30th ranked farm system so Astros fans can’t even derive much hope for the future from their prospects.  In our neck of the woods, Eric Hosmer is putting the Carolina League on notice that his vision has been restored.  Put that in your pipe and Smoak it.

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Royals Kingdom:  We’ve Got 159 More of These to Go … Great.

FanGraphs: Hochevar Throwing Gas

Tangled Up In (Royal) Blue: Did I Hear Someone Tell A Lie?

Kansas City Star: Royals to open 2010 season with $70.1 million payroll, which as Bob Dutton points out in the piece is just about what the team paid out last season.

Royalscentricity: The Royals Hate Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier and yesterday’s instant classic Luis Mendoza – Royal Killer.  On the first note, the Royals hate Mike Aviles so much that he was optioned to Triple-A today to make room for Gil Meche.  Apparently Luis Mendoza is too valuable* to lose so the team will roll on with a 3 player bench comprised of Maier, Pena, and Bloomquist.

*I just let out a sad chuckle as I wrote that.

I know Wee Willie is a “super utility” player, but he can only be in one place at one time.  Speaking of Mendoza, I will echo Josh’s sentiments on Luis’ ability to pitch in the major leagues.  I’m not ready to fire everybody, but Trey Hillman and Dave Owen can sure as heck pack their bags.  Those moves are both about 9 months overdue.  As far as our overly sensitive and embattled GM is concerned, I’ve always believed that any person in that position should be given 5 years to build and develop an organization.  Based on Dayton’s performance with the major league roster, I’ve already taken a half a year off that, meaning he should be fired after this season (contract extension be damned).  I don’t know what needs to happen for Moore to save his job between then and now, but jettisoning the Trey and Owen show would be an excellent first step.

J.J. Cooper (Baseball America) published a list of the ten youngest players in each full season league of the minors.  In the Carolina League, the Wilmington Blue Rocks claim three of the ten spots with Eric Hosmer, Tim Melville, and the youngest of the league, Salvador Perez.  Omaha, NW Arkansas, and Burlington didn’t have any players make the list in the Pacific Coast, Texas, and Midwest Leagues respectively.

Dave Cameron (FanGraphs) takes a look at what makes a good organization.

Ben Nicholson-Smith (MLB Trade Rumors) examines the value of super-two status.

Mat Germain (Jays Journal) had some Dana Eveland notes from yesterday.  I bring this up here because I profiled Dana Eveland in a Market Fresh post back in early February and came to the conclusion that the Royals should have worked to get their hands on him.  Instead he found his way to Toronto when the Jays acquired him from the Athletics for cash or a player to be named later.  Right now, outside of Gil Meche’s start today, the Royals rotation is humming along rather well, but you can never have enough pitching.

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I hope everyone had a great weekend!

Between March 16th and 21st, the team released 23 year old RHP-Jack Adams who pitched for the AZL Royals during 2009.  In 21.1 innings as a reliever he was 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  He struck out 21 while walking only 3.  Adams pitched for San Jose State University and was signed by the Royals as a non-drafted free agent last summer.  Also during this week, 2B-Scott Lyons and SS-Ben Tschepikow retired from baseball.  The Royals selected both University of Arkansas players in the 2009 draft.  Lyons was taken in the 15th and Tschepikow was selected in the 17th.  LA (Royals Revival) shared some thoughts on Ben and Scott a few weeks ago in an article titled Retiring Prospects.

Between March 22nd and 28th, the team released RHP-John Bannister (26), RHP-Pernell Halliman (23), LHP-Carlos Rivas (25), C/1B-Alberto Espinosa (23), and IF-Antonio Jimenez (22).  Bannister came to the Royals back on August 11th of last year when Dayton claimed him off waivers from the Texas Rangers.  After being acquired, he appeared in 8 games with NW Arkansas and had a 5.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14.1 IP.  The Royals drafted Pernell Halliman in the 40th round of the 2008 draft out of Jackson State University.  He spent the 2009 season with the Idaho Falls Chukars and made 3 starts to go along with 12 relief appearances.  He finished the season with a 5.59 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 1.39 SO/BB.  Carlos Rivas was released by the Atlanta Braves in May of last year and landed with the Royals in High-A Wilmington.  In 20.2 IP with the Blue Rocks he had a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 2.11 SO/BB.  Another 2008 draft pick, Alberto Espinosa was selected by the Royals in the 15th round out of Broward CC.  He spent the 2009 season repeating rookie ball in Idaho Falls and hit 0.271/.355/.384 in 203 at bats.  Antonio Jimenez signed with the Royals out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.  Last season, he hit 0.205/.223/.295 in 220 at bats split between low and high A.

During that same week, the Royals signed RHP-Rodolfo Encarnacion (23) and OF-Brawlun Gomez.  Encarnacion has been pitching in the Marlins organization since 2006 and has a career 3.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.86 SO/BB.  He pairs his career 10.6 SO/9 with a 5.7 BB/9.  I couldn’t find any information anywhere about Gomez.

RHP-Bryan Bullington (29) was reassigned to the minor league camp on March 28th and is now with the Omaha Royals.  Of all the guys signed to minor league contracts this offseason, Bullington was the one I thought had a chance to break through and land a job in the Royals bullpen on opening day.  He didn’t pitch very well during spring training, so this move didn’t come as a surprise.  There is still plenty of time for Bryan to make an impact on the major league roster, but it appears I was a little too bullish on Bullington.  Based on the early season performance of the bullpen in Kansas City, a couple guys might get major league looks by the All-Star break.  Then again, the Royals bullpen was pretty terrible last season and they did very little about it until September.

Also on March 28th, the Royals traded C-Steven Lerud (25) to the Baltimore Orioles for a player to be named later.  He was a 3rd round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2003 draft and spent his entire professional career with them until this offseason when he came to the Royals as a minor league free agent.  The Orioles have since assigned him to Triple-A Norfolk.

March 31st was the first day that some bigger names were moved out of the Royals major league camp.  RHP-Blake Wood (24) and 1B/DH-Kila Ka’aihue (26) were both optioned to Triple-A.  The Omaha Royals played their opener last night and if the first game is any indication, it looks like Kila is on a mission to force Dayton Moore’s hand.  In five at bats he had a walk, single, home run, and two strikeouts.  There are a lot of reasons to believe Kila should be on the major league roster right now.  In fact in our KoK season preview, Jon had him slotted as the team’s starting DH.  I didn’t fit him into my preferred starting lineup, but I did have him as the primary bat coming off the bench.  Blake Wood is in a similar boat as Kila.  Though Blake doesn’t have the $12 million salary of Jose Guillen in his way, the contracts of Farnsworth and Cruz aren’t much better.  Wood also has to deal with the organizations unrequited love for Roman Colon.  I wanted Wood and Carlos Rosa to open the season in the bullpen over Colon and Mendoza.  Based on early returns, there is a good chance I will get my wish later in the season.

Wait, there’s more that went down on March 31st.  That was the day the Royals offered 22-year old Rule-5 lefty Edgar Osuna back to the Braves.  Atlanta declined to take Osuna back, he cleared waivers, and the Royals assigned him outright to Double-A NW Arkansas.  He provides the organization with another young lefty and while he doesn’t have the upside of some of the other prospects, I don’t think things could have turned out better for the Royals or the organization.  He gets to continue his development in AA and Kansas City doesn’t have to keep him on the 40-man roster.

On April 1st, 37-year old C-Vance Wilson retired.  He leaves his playing days behind after appearing in 635 games in the minors and another 403 in the majors.

With a spot open on the 40-man burning a hole in his pocket, Dayton Moore inexplicably acquired RHP-Luis Mendoza (26) from the Texas Rangers for cash considerations.  The April 2nd trade earned Luis a spot in the Royals bullpen and allowed him to join in on the implosion party.  In 1.2 innings thus far he has a 27.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, and does not look like he belongs in the major leagues.  This should not come as a surprise to anyone considering his ERA in the minors hasn’t been below 3.90 since he was in A-ball back in 2004.  Overall, in 8 minor league season he has a 4.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.73 SO/BB.  In the upper levels of the minors he’s been very hittable with a subpar SO/BB.  Carlos Rosa (who obviously wronged someone in the front office based on their treatment of him) and Blake Wood had to have muttered a few WTFs upon hearing the news of the Mendoza acquisition.

Waiting until the 11th hour, the Royals reassigned a large group of players to minor league camp on April 3rd.  C-Edwin Bellorin (28), INF-Wilson Betemit (28), INF-Irving Falu (26), OF-Scott Thorman (28), LHP-Bruce Chen (32), RHP-Matt Herges (40), and RHP-Brad Thompson (28).  All seven were assigned to the Omaha Royals.

Also on the 3rd, the Royals placed 3B-Alex Gordon, RHP-Gil Meche, and 3B-Josh Fields on the 15-day DL.  Gordon and Meche were backdated to March 26th so both players are eligible to come off the disabled list on April 10th.  We know that Meche is scheduled to start for the Royals on Sunday the 11th while Gordon started his rehab assignment yesterday with the Wilmington Blue Rocks and went 1-2 with a walk.

On April 4th LHP-John Parrish claimed the last bullpen spot on the major league roster.  As a result, RHP-Anthony Lerew (27) was designated for assignment.  He cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Omaha.

Also during this last week, according to Baseball America, the Royals released RHP-Jason Godin (25), RHP-Matt Kniginyzky (27), RHP-Ryan Morgan (23), RHP-Zach Peterson (25), RHP-Brett Richardson (22), RHP-Francisco Rosario (29), LHP-Gilbert de la Vara (25), LHP-Nelson Payano (27), and OF-Eric Shortell (23).  Godin, the Royals 5th round selection in the 2006 draft, pitched in Wilmington, NW Arkansas, and Omaha during the 2009 season.  He has a career 4.09 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.78 SO/BB in 4 seasons and 275.0 innings pitched.  Kniginyzky was drafted by the Royals in the 23rd round of the 2005 draft and spent the 2009 season in the Naturals rotation.  He finished the year with a 5.48 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 1.19 SO/BB.  Morgan was the Royals 26th round pick in the 2008 draft and spent his two professional seasons pitching for Idaho Falls.  In 66.1 career innings he has a 6.11 ERA, 2.01 WHIP, and 1.57 SO/BB.  Peterson, who was born in St. Paul, Minnesota pitched for the Bees and Blue Rocks last season.  Between the two stops he had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 1.89 SO/BB in 77.1 innings pitched.  He was signed as a non-drafted free agent in June of 2007.  Richardson was Kansas City’s 34th round pick in the 2008 draft.  Last season he pitched in Rookie ball for the Burlington Royals and finished with a 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.00 SO/BB in 25.0 IP.  Rosario originally signed a minor league contract with the Royals back in December and was assigned to Omaha just a few weeks ago.  De la Vara was the Royals 15th round pick in the 2004 draft and was selected by the Astros in the Rule-5 draft last year.  Houston returned him at the end of spring training and the Royals sent him to Double-A where he struggled with a 5.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 1.48 SO/BB in 64.1 IP.  He also got 7.0 innings of work for the O-Royals.  Payano signed a minor league contract with the Royals back in December after he spent 2009 pitching in Japan.  Shortell signed with the Royals as a non-drafted free agent on February 2nd, 2009.  He hit 0.214/.353/.214 in 14 at bats for the AZL Royals.

Phew, now I’m caught up.

(Wally Fish is the lead writer for Kings of Kauffman and Call to the Pen.  He is also FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

For the purposes of this exercise, when it comes to the Royals roster choices, we are assuming that everyone involved is completely healthy and ready to go.   Also, any player on the team’s 40-man roster is eligible to be included in the below.   In case you aren’t familiar with the three of us: JT is Jon Twibell, ME is Michael Engel, and WF is Wally Fish.

Before we get into the breakdown, the opening day roster is as follows:

Pitchers (12): Brian Bannister, Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Kyle Davies, Kyle Farnsworth, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Dusty Hughes, Luis Mendoza, John Parrish, Joakim Soria, and Robinson Tejeda.  Gil Meche starts on the DL but is scheduled to return April 11th.

Catchers(2): Jason Kendall and Brayan Pena

Infielders (6): Mike Aviles, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, and Chris Getz.  Josh Fields and Alex Gordon start the season on the disabled list.

Outfielders (5): Rick Ankiel, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, and Scott Podsednik

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The Position Players:

Catcher: Jason Kendall (35) was given a 2-year, $6 million dollar contract in the offseason to upgrade the defensive aspect of the position.  In his 14-year career he’s hit 0.290/.369/.383 but he’s been in decline for a while.  In 2008 and 2009 he’s hit around 0.244/.329/.315.  He is an upgrade with the glove and will get on-base at a better clip than Buck or Olivo did last season, but the team has voted SLG off the island in the process.

JT: Brayan Pena (28) – While I don’t think Pena will ever be a great player, I do feel that he can be more than serviceable. He has some pop, is a switch hitter, and plays with an enthusiasm seldom found on the Royals. Jason Kendall is over the hill, and has been for some time. Give Pena a chance to play an entire season.

WF: Brayan Pena is in many ways the antithesis of Jason Kendall.  We still don’t know what Pena is capable of but that falls on the shoulders of Dayton and Trey.  At the plate he showed promise in 165 at bats last season with some power, good plate discipline (12 to 18 BB to SO), and the ability to make solid contact.  Defensively, he looks to be a project, but the Royals inexplicably refused to take a good look at him as a catcher late last season.

ME: Pena – There’s something about Pena that I root for.  Swirling in the Quad-A maelstrom for so long, I just want to see him succeed. It’ll take improvements in his defense and plate coverage to be the everyday catcher, but if he can manage that, he’ll be highly productive at the plate.

1st Base: Billy Butler (23) has been solid offensively since he made his Royals’ debut back in 2007 at 21-years of age.  Last year he took his game to another level in the second half, and showed some good progress defensively at 1B.  As the season went on he clearly became more comfortable at the plate and on defense.

JT: Butler - This is a no-brainer for me.  Porkchop can flat out hit and his better-than-expected defensive play eased my fears of him being a full time DH.

WF: Butler now knows that he belongs.  I expect big things, including 30 HR, from a confident and self-assured Billy in 2010.

ME: Butler – I have a feeling about this kid … Really, though, if he continues to grow as a defensive player (meaning average with potential to improve), he helps the club even more because it allows Hillman to use the DH spot for the more defensively-challenged trio of Guillen/Callaspo/Fields when all are healthy.

2nd Base: Chris Getz (26) will be an upgrade defensively over Alberto Callaspo and while he can’t match Bert at the plate, he does have some offensive ability.

JT: Getz - I would like to have placed Callaspo here, but his defense just isn’t up to snuff.  Getz is a quicker and better option at 2nd.   I also like that he stole 25 bases in only 106 games last season.

WF:  Getz – Dayton Moore did very well for himself and the organization when he was able to turn Teahen into Getz.  As Jon mentioned, Chris stole 25 bases in 106 games.  Perhaps more importantly is the fact that he only got caught stealing twice.  His OBP in the majors is only 0.323, but getting on-base should be something Getz does very well as he continues to get comfortable in the big leagues as his 0.369 OBP in the minors can attest.  He’s a heady, intelligent player who makes the most of his ability.  It doesn’t hurt that he profiles to be a good defensive 2B as well.

ME: Getz – When Moore traded Teahen for Chris Getz and Josh Fields, Getz was set all along to get a shot at the everyday second base position.   It’s not certain if he’s that good of a defender or not, but he should be able to be more consistent than Callaspo did last season, and will steal some bases, as well.

Shortstop:  Yuniesky Betancourt (28) remains the starter.  The good news is that he is better than the 0.240/.269/.370 player we saw in Kansas City last year.  The bad news is that he is woefully inadequate with the glove and it doesn’t seem likely that he can turn that part of his game around anytime soon.

JT: Mike Aviles (29) - I realize that his arm strength isn’t back yet, but I was encouraged to see him tear-it-up offensively in Spring Training, reassuring me that his woes at the plate last year stemmed from his elbow injury. Even though he isn’t at full strength, I still like him better at shortstop than Betancourt.   Betancourt has absolutely no plate discipline and hardly ever walks (21 in 508 PA’s last season).  His defense isn’t good enough to make up for his offensive deficiencies.   Depending on whether or not you believe in UZR and the plus/minus system, as some don’t, Betancourt was the worst defensive shortstop in the game in 2008 before the Royals traded for him last season.

WF: Mike Aviles should be the starting SS whether his arm is 75%, 85%, or 100%.  A partially healthy Aviles gives the Royals a better chance to win than a fully healthy Betancourt.  Some times things aren’t as simple as they seem but in this case it really is that simple.

ME: Aviles – I’ve discussed at length how I feel about Aviles. For one, I’m on the bandwagon no matter how his bat gets into the lineup. You can’t expect a 2008 repeat, but 3/4 of that production would still be excellent production for a shortstop. The questions, of course, are if he’s for real (I think so) and if he can remain healthy after major elbow surgery last spring (crossing my fingers).

3rd Base: Alex Gordon (26) has struggled with injuries recently and he has failed to live up to the hype that was heaped upon him.  Still, he was the consensus second best player in the 2005 draft, and he showed what he is capable of in 2006 when he captured Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year award.  All of the potential is still there and he still only has 334 games of major league experience on his resume.  The Royals need to give him at least one more year.

JT: Alberto Callaspo (26 and soon to be 27) - Some may not agree, but I think Callaspo is the better option at the hot corner over Alex Gordon.   While Callaspo may not have the home run power that Gordon possesses, Bert is a much better all around hitter and doesn’t have gaping holes in his swing like Gordon.   Although the sample size of Callaspo at 3rd base is small, I feel that he can be serviceable. Bottom line, his bat needs to be in the lineup.

WF: Gordon - Here we come to the first place where I disagree with Jon.  Callaspo is a better hitter right now than Gordon, but Bert cannot match Alex’s upside and potential and it is far too early to give up on him.  Callaspo also cannot, in my opinion, match Gordon defensively at 3B.  The sample size may be small, but Alberto proved to me in spring training that 3B is not where his future lies.  I will agree with my colleague that Callaspo’s bat needs to be in the lineup but not at the expense of Gordon and not by playing him at 3B.

ME: Callaspo – I love Callaspo’s ability to make contact, and while I think he can hit .300 every year of his life, his power surge last year isn’t in line with his numbers coming up through the minor leagues.   He is coming into his peak years, though, so it could be that he’s reaching his double-hitting potential.  Ideally, Callaspo would be able to play third base at an average level until Alex Gordon returns.

Left Field: Scott Podsednik (34) is a 0.277/.340/.381 hitter with nine years of major league experience.  If the Royals get the 2003, 2005, and 2009 version of Scotty Pods then the Royals can expect a solid season out of their new left fielder.  If they get the 2004, 2006, 2007, or 2008 version, they may want to throw him back.  Regardless of which version the Royals get, he brings speed to the table.  If he falters, and he very well could, the Royals have Maier waiting in the wings.

JT: Mitch Maier (27) – Coming off of a great spring training, Maier gets my vote to play left field over Scott Podsednik. Maier is a better fielder, and if he can hit half as well as he did during the spring, it will have been a good season for Maier.

WF: Podsednik – I wouldn’t have gone out and signed Pods in the first place, but now that he’s on the roster the Royals should use him.  That’s not to say that I’m anti-Maier.  I really like Mitch and what he brings to this team and have an inkling that he could become an everyday major league player if given the chance.  As the team’s 4th OF he’s going to get plenty of playing time as all three starting outfielders have struggled to stay on the field at times during their careers so I think that chance comes this year.  After hitting 0.213/.289/.309 in the first half of the season, Maier became a different player in the second half and hit 0.263/.361/.346.  As Jon mentions, he had a very impressive spring.  I think it is very possible that Maier will be a starter and Podsednik will be the 4th outfielder by the all-star break.

ME: DeJesus – I still don’t understand the move to right field for DeJesus.   Thankfully, Trey Hillman has relented from the idea of DeJesus hitting third (and thankfully, the Royals have solid options to hit there, as well).  I expect DeJesus to lead off, produce at his normal average but not spectacular level, and perhaps play well enough to be a valuable trade chip at the end of the year.

Center Field: Rick Ankiel (30) is not your typical player, but everyone knows the story.  What is important is that while he may be 30 years old, he is extremely young as a hitter and has lots of room to grow and improve as he continues to gain experience.  Ankiel has a cannon for an arm and also provides the Royals with a legitimate power source to pair with Butler.  I would not have signed Podsednik, but I would have taken a flier on Ankiel.  My only disappointment with this signing is that the mutual option for 2011 isn’t a straight club option and that he was reportedly promised CF.

JT: Ankiel – Last year, Ankiel was respectable defensively in center and displayed a great arm.  His bat is suspect and he needs to bounce back after a down year last year.

WF: Ankiel – I’m bullish on Rick as a member of the Royals.  He played much of the season hurt after crashing into the wall early on in the season and by most accounts the effects of that collision lingered and took their toll on his offensive performance.  Regardless of the cause, he needs to prove he can hit if he wants to remain an everyday player and I worry that hitting him cleanup to protect Butler might be asking a little too much of him.  Of course that gets us into the fun game of “if not Ankiel then who.”  When the answer is Jose Guillen, many of my concerns about Ankiel evaporate.

ME: Maier – Okay, so here’s the deal: I have a franchise on MVP Baseball 2005 on PlayStation 2 where I’ve periodically edited players to reflect the Royals’ minor league rosters, and since I’m in 2014, I’ve got a lot of the current prospects up and running. Mitch Maier hits about .320 one year for me, then follows up by hitting .210 the next year, then rebounding to surpass .300 once again the next year. It’s eerily not too far off from his usual pattern of having a great season in his second year at a new level. This will be his second Major League season … hmm …

Right Field: David DeJesus (30) shifts to RF to make room for Podsednik in LF.  I don’t think there is a doubt in anyone’s mind that he will excel defensively in right just as he did in left.  DJ is a 0.286/.358/.425 hitter over the course of his 7-year major league career.  Royals fans should expect more from David in 2010 as he’s not showing any signs of slowing down.

JT: DeJesus – A no-brainer here. You know he will be playing everyday. Although, I think he is better suited for LF and Maier would be better in CF, with Ankiel in RF.  However, we know that Ankiel was “guaranteed” CF, so that’s where he will be.

WF: DeJesus – Put him in LF, CF, or RF and I will be confident that he will get the job done.  He’s a true professional who puts the team first and is great in the community.  DJ is a player we can all be proud of and encourage our kids to root for.  It doesn’t hurt that he’s good too.

ME: Ankiel – I’d put Ankiel in right field to showcase his arm. I just don’t buy him in center, but that’s where he’ll be anyway. If he can stay healthy and recapture his 2008 production, I’d be plenty happy.

Designated Hitter: Jose Guillen (33 soon to be 34) wants to play in the field, but that ship has sailed.  It will be interesting to watch how Guillen adapts to life as a DH and as we all know it could end badly.  Jose now has 13 seasons on his resume with a 0.271/.322/.442 line, but like Jason Kendall, Guillen’s best days are in the rear-view mirror.

JT: Kila Ka’aihue (26) - Why not?  Dayton Moore preaches OBP, yet the one player in his system who exhibits a great OBP can’t seem to get any extended time in the Majors.  When Jose Guillen is my other choice, I’ll go with Ka’aihue every time.

WF: Alberto Callaspo – I completely agree with Jon about Kila and Guillen, but for me this team’s DH has to be Alberto Callaspo for the same reasons Jon mentions for Bert at 3B.  On my roster, Kila would be on the bench with Guillen given his outright release.

ME: Guillen – I really want to believe the contract year productivity theory and hope it’s true- though not so true that Dayton Moore feels compelled to extend his contract…

Bench:

JT: IF/OF Willie Bloomquist – Although nothing flashy, he is usually solid defensively and does the “little things” at the plate, i.e – laying down a bunt, moving over runners, getting a sacrifice fly, etc.  C Jason Kendall – I would put Kendall here because I feel his influence will be more beneficial in the clubhouse than on the playing field.   I have no problem at all with him being a backup catcher.  OF Scott Podsednik – I do like his speed, but not much more than that.  He doesn’t hit for power and just turned 34.   He should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder at this point in his career.  3B/1B Alex Gordon – Ah yes, the ultimate enigma.   Oozes with talent and physical strength, yet has been unable to stay healthy and put together a season worthy of the number 2 overall pick back in the 2005 draft.   Unless he can fix the holes in his swing, I’m not sure how much longer he will be in a Kansas City uniform.

WF: OF-Mitch Maier, C-Jason Kendall, 1B/DH-Kila Ka’aihue, and UT-Willie Bloomquist.  While Maier is on the bench as the 4 outfielder on the roster, he would receive ample playing time on this roster even if the three starters manage to stay healthy.   As much as I want Pena to catch every day, he’s going to need to take some breaks and a 60/40 of 65/35 platoon situation with Kendall seems appropriate.   With Gordon at 3B, Getz at 2B, and Callaspo at DH, it will be a challenge to get Kila’s bat into the starting lineup from time to time.  While he won’t start many games, he will be a huge late inning weapon as a pinch hitter.   I wrestled with weather to keep Bloomquist or Betancourt on the roster.  I honestly think Yunie has more offensive potential, but Bloomers has the versatility.   Thus, Wee Willie gets the last bench spot while Betancourt and Josh Fields are sent packing.

ME: OF Scott Podsednik – I feel like Maier’s spring performance earned him a look as the everyday centerfielder.   I just don’t buy Podsednik as an everyday player, but he’s reasonable as a fourth outfielder and to spell Ankiel if he gets banged up through the season.  UT Willie Bloomquist – If Bloomquist plays as often as he did last season, something went wrong.   He’s just fine as a utility player, though I’d rather he play in the infield more than the outfield, where he takes some weird routes to balls in play.  He’ll also steal a few bases and doesn’t strike out very often.  C Jason Kendall – I don’t mind that the Royals signed Kendall.  I don’t.   Truly.  The terms of the contract that he signed, however, are all wrong.   Kendall’s going to be the everyday catcher, and should improve the defense and wild pitch/passed ball numbers of last season, but he’s going to struggle to be replacement level at the plate.  SS Yuniesky Betancourt – Until Aviles shows he can make the throw with confidence across the diamond, Betancourt’s going to have the everyday job at short.   Unfortunately, the Royals’ lack of any depth at the position in the minor leagues means Betancourt is almost impossible to get rid of (and that contract doesn’t help either).  DL Alex Gordon – I really hope this is the year Gordon puts it together.   It’s becoming clear that expectations must be tempered due partly to his inability to avoid injuries, and his above average strikeout rate.   His ceiling gets lower every year, but he can still reach that ceiling if he stays in the lineup.  DL Josh Fields – I simply don’t know where Fields is going to fit in this lineup right now without injuries, demotions, or other moves.  He’s more suited for a DH role, but if someone gets hurt who would otherwise fill that role, I’d rather see Kila Ka’aihue come up and get a shot than insert Fields in there.  He might be “injured” for a while…

~~~~~

Preferred Lineup:

We know that Trey loves to tinker with his lineup so instead of trying to predict how he will write it out for any given game, it’s probably best to just provide you with our preferred batting orders.

JT: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Mike Aviles, 3-Alberto Callaspo, 4-Billy Butler, 5-Kila Ka’aihue, 6-Rick Ankiel, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Mitch Maier, 9-Chris Getz

WF: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Mike Aviles, 3-Billy Butler, 4-Rick Ankiel, 5-Alberto Callaspo, 6-Alex Gordon, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Chris Getz, 9-Scott Podsednik

ME: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Alberto Callaspo, 3-Billy Butler, 4-Rick Ankiel, 5-Jose Guillen, 6-Mike Aviles, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Mitch Maier, 9-Chris Getz

~~~~~

The Rotation:

#1 Starter: Zack Greinke (26) won the 2009 AL Cy Young Award and is coming off one of the 35 best seasons turned in by a starter going back to 1880.

JT: Greinke – Best in the AL

WF: Greinke – Ditto

ME: Greinke – So he probably won’t put up a 2.16 ERA again.  Add a full run and it’s still superb. If he has the new changeup in control, he’s going to be even more dangerous.  What can you say about a player who puts up one of the best seasons in the last 20 years, and still wants to improve?

#2 Starter: Gil Meche (31) started 100 games from 2006 to 2008.  Thanks in part to Trey Hillman’s pitcher abuse program, Meche managed to start only 23 games, his lowest total since 2004.

JT: Meche – The Royals need him to return to his 2007/2008 form and stay healthy.

WF: Meche – I’m not confident that his shoulder can hold up the entire year but since we are assuming everyone is healthy, this is a no brainer.  He is far and away the second best pitcher on the staff.

ME: Meche is available to come off the DL before the April 11th game which he’s tentatively scheduled to start, so while he’s on the DL, I’m effectively including him in the rotation. For Meche, it’s all about his workload and his health. He struggled when his back started to tighten last year from poor handling by Hillman, and it added stress to his shoulder which hampers him still today.

#3 Starter: Luke Hochevar (26) is 48 starts into his major league career.  He’s still trying to justify being the first player taken in the 2006 draft.

JT: Hochevar – Has shown flashes of brilliance, needs to be more consistent.

WF: Hochevar – Consistency is definitely the buzzword when it comes to Hoch and his future with the Royals.  He has the stuff to succeed and be a #2 or #3 starter, but simply having the stuff is only a small part of the battle.

ME: Hochevar – I just have a feeling that Hochevar figures it out this year. He’s been consistently getting groundballs all spring, and Kansas City’s infield defense…okay well it’s still bad but it’s not AS bad as last season. If Hochevar can maintain focus and avoid big innings, he can finally reach the potential that made him the first overall pick in 2006.

#4 Starter: Brian Bannister (29) is the sabermetrics guru of the Kansas City Royals organization, and yes that counts the front office.  BB has the least impressive stuff of the rotation but his talent plays up because he is a student of the game and “gets” the art of pitching.

JT: Bannister – Was great last season until he went down with a bum shoulder.

WF: Bannister – I was convinced he was, at best, a back of the rotation guy, but he changed my mind last season.  I still have some reservations since he appears to wear down at times and I worry about his future as he ages and loses some of the zip and life on his pitches.  That said, I’m done doubting Brian Bannister.  He can pitch in the middle of my rotation any day.

ME: Bannister – Until he hit the same wall that Meche hit after too many pitches, Bannister showed his advanced approach to pitching is no 2008 fluke. He’ll never be an ace, but he can be one of the best fourth starters in the league if he continues to improve and avoids fatigue.

#5 Starter: Kyle Davies (26) will make his 100th start in his major league career this month.  While he has shown flashes, overall the results do not sync up with his ability.

JT: Davies – Can he put more than one good start together?

WF: Davies – If you’ve been reading Kings of Kauffman for any amount of time you know that I am a big Kyle Davies believer and fan.  I know the results have been underwhelming.  I recognize that he has already logged 523.0 innings in the majors.  I know that he has a hard time getting out of the 5th inning with his pitch count under 90.  Still, something tells me that he has a future in the middle of a major league rotation if the switch ever goes on and he realizes that he doesn’t need to nibble and be so fine with his pitches.  His stuff and talent are terribly undervalued by Royals fans.  He’s still only 26 and I still believe.

ME: Davies – The question with Davies is focus and consistency. He has the stuff for a number two starter, but he never seems able to harness it. If he does, he’ll be a luxury as a fifth starter.

~~~~~

The Bullpen:

The bullpen is a little tougher to tackle in this format so we’re going to address them as a group.  The Royals chose to go with Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Robinson Tejeda, Roman Colon, and Luis Mendoza from the right.  John Parrish and Dusty Hughes are Trey’s options from the left in the team’s quest to get the ball to stud closer Joakim Soria.

JT:  Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth need to re-establish themselves in 2010. Farnsworth was horrible when the game was on the line and Cruz was inexplicably roughed up throughout the season.  Robinson Tejeda and Roman Colon showed flashes last year, especially Tejeda’s September, but they need to be more consistent for the Royals this season.  Luis Mendoza, Dusty Hughes, and John Parrish are all newcomers to the big league club. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen any of them pitch yet, so I will refrain from comment for the time being.

WF: I’ve never been a big Roman Colon fan (even before his opening day performance) and I still don’t understand what the Luis Mendoza acquisition was all about.  Fortunately one of the two, and logic would suggest it will be Mendoza, will get the axe when Meche comes off the DL.  Still, I think the team would have been better off with Carlos Rosa and Blake Wood on the roster instead.  Even if they faltered, at least we could take solace in the fact that the organization was actually giving someone from the farm system a chance by choice.  The rest of the pen is fine considering the other options on hand right now.  I actually like the left-handed duo of Hughes and Parrish though that is more of a gut feeling than anything else.  If you want more thoughts on the bullpen, don’t worry, Michael has got you covered.

ME: RHP Luis Mendoza – I don’t know too much yet, as the Royals just acquired Mendoza over the weekend. His minor league numbers don’t look great, and he’s probably a roster casualty when Meche needs to come off the DL.  RHP Kyle Farnsworth – I’m starting to believe in Farnsworth.   I just shuddered as I wrote that, but it’s true.  He should maintain his strong strikeout rates, and he doesn’t walk too many batters either.   If he can avoid the longball, he’ll be a decent option.   Just keep him out of high-leverage situations!  RHP Robinson Tejeda – Another player I’ve written to some length about, Tejeda can be electric out of the bullpen.   He’s unhittable at times, but the issue always comes down to walks.   While he may hold teams to a poor batting average against, they still get on base with the amount of free passes he dishes out.  He’s got to get that in line, but I think it’s likely one of those issues that can’t be trained away.  RHP Juan Cruz – Cruz has performed well during spring training, which gives me hope that he can regain the dominance of his Diamondback days.   He hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball, but he must have lost movement to get hit as hard as he did last year.   His control will be a bit of an issue, but if he can strike out more batters, it can balance out.  LHP Dusty Hughes – Hughes pitched well enough to get the job out of spring training, but he’s nothing spectacular.  He’ll have more of a specialist role, but should be solid.   Can’t expect too much, though.  LHP John Parrish – Parrish won the second left-handed job over Edgar Osuna, posting a 1.86 ERA in 8 spring games with 11 strikeouts in 9.2 IP.  He just got the last bullpen spot over Anthony Lerew, who was the unlucky loser after the Royals acquired Mendoza.  RHP Roman Colon – Word out of Surprise has Colon penciled in as a potentially dominant setup man for Joakim Soria.   Armed with a new slider, he’s suited for the role, if he can perform with consistency.  If he falters, this role may go to Juan Cruz (if he can bounce back) or perhaps Robinson Tejeda (and pray he gets the control problems fixed).  RHP Joakim Soria – A no brainer, as Soria shows no signs of slowing down.  He’s a top-five closer in the league and the only concern is potential injury, as he did spend time on the DL last season.

~~~~~

Prediction:

JT: I don’t foresee this season going well for Trey Hillman and his club.  They simply don’t have enough talent to compete and if they suffer from injuries like they did last year, it could get really ugly.  They are still two-three years away from making a run at the AL Central.  67-95 record, last in the AL Central.

WF: Jon is absolutely right, this team still lacks the talent needed to compete for even third place in this AL Central.  People can talk all they want about how the Central is weak or how the projections have a team winning with a win total in the low 80s.  Even if that were true, the Royals are nowhere near that level and it takes too many ifs and maybes for the optimist in me to get this squad to 0.500.  I also don’t believe the AL Central champion this year will win less than 90 games.  I’ve got them tabbed to finish with a 68-94 record which will land them in 4th or 5th place in the AL Central depending on how badly the Cleveland Indians pitching staff winds up being this year.

ME: Overall, the Royals’ lineup will have holes too large to expect contention unless something magical happens. The strength the team carries is in the starting rotation, where they have the best pitcher in the league and a staff that goes relatively deep.  If the bullpen can hold up, the defense can get close to average, and the offense can show up now and then, this Royals team should be capable of 75 wins.   That’s optimistic, but should be enough to get the Royals ahead of Cleveland (though I’d still peg them for fourth in the AL Central – not our time yet).

~~~~~

(Wally Fish is the lead writer for Kings of Kauffman and Call to the Pen.  He is also FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

Last night Bob Dutton published Royals’ Meche admits shoulder stiffness after early exit which contained the following quotes.

“They’ve done all of the tests to check me out,” Meche said. “The shoulder is strong, but the tightness is there. I just don’t feel real loose when I’m pitching. I just have some shoulder stiffness. Nothing serious.”

“It’s been kind of in and out,” he said. “There’s no pain. So I’m not worried about it. But this stiffness, I’ve got to get to where I’m flexible. I’m doing a lot of stretching. I’m just trying to get to a point where I feel comfortable on the mound.

“I know I need to get my pitch count up,” he said, “but as long as I feel good at the beginning of the season, everything will be fine. I don’t want to get to where I’m having stiffness once we start (the season).

“Strengthwise, I feel good. I’m really not worried about it. I don’t think I’ve ever had a spring training when I didn’t have any problems.”

Do you see a common theme running through what Meche is saying?

It’s nothing serious.

First, it’s the shoulder of our second best starting pitcher who happens to be 60% through a 5-year $55 million contract.  Even if he just bruises his shoulder in the process of getting a beer out of the fridge at home, it’s serious.  There is still $24 million of contract riding on that shoulder* and if healthy, he will be one of the few Royals players in demand at the trade deadline this summer.

There’s no pain.

This may or may not be true, but I don’t know if I buy this entirely.  Meche is a gamer.  He’s a tough guy and he’s dealt with his share of arm issues in the past including missing all of the 2001 season.  Does he really feel no pain in the shoulder or is this a case of wishful and positive thinking on his part?  Of course we cannot forget that Gil disintegrated after his infamous 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th last season.  We also cannot forget that he missed the second half of July, the first half of August, and all of September with a “dead arm” and shoulder fatigue.

Everything will be fine.

No.  No it won’t.  This is the shoulder of Gil Meche we’re talking about.  The injury history, the events that unfolded last season, and the fact this is the Royals involved lead me to believe that things are not going to be fine.  I’m a Royals fan and a baseball fan.  Don’t tell me everything will be fine.  Prove to me that you are fine.

I feel good.

Maybe it’s semantics but if a pitcher is feeling good, he doesn’t need to leave a game with shoulder stiffness.  If a pitcher is feeling good there is no need to reveal that he’s felt similar stiffness in his earlier spring outing.  Stiffness does not equal feeling good.

I’m not really worried about it.

This is surely more rainbow and sunshine positive thinking on Gil’s part.  I can’t say for sure whether or not he is worried, though I find it hard to believe that he isn’t.  I can say with 100% certainty that I am worried about it.

Want more reason to worry?

Rotoworld reported about three hours ago that Meche will skip his Wednesday workout and is “unlikely” to make his upcoming start which was scheduled for Saturday.  The Rotoworld blip surely stemmed from Dutton’s piece this afternoon which revealed that Meche’s stiff shoulder has Royals pondering options.  The small positive from this is that the Royals recognize that there is a problem here.

This news follows what I heard on sports radio 810 WHB this morning.  Soren Petro, who is far and away the best sports talk radio guy I’ve ever listened to, mentioned that a source inside the Royals organization revealed that Gil Meche’s shoulder “does not look good” and that there was some discussion of surgery last season.  Petro went on to say that the team’s medical staff, according to this source, doesn’t expect him to make it through the season.  He did point out that he did not have a second source on this information, but that his source has been reliable in the past.

Regardless of the source, the events that have played out since last summer clearly point to the fact that there is a significant problem under the surface here.  Shoulder injuries can derail a major league career faster than any other and often times are difficult to pinpoint.

From my standpoint Meche has already earned most of the $55 million the Royals paid him, so I’m not so hung up on the money.  His contract wasn’t just about the years or the dollars when Dayton Moore signed him.  It was just as much about changing the perception of the organization and its standing with respect to the rest of the baseball world. Sure I want him to be healthy this year and next, but even if he isn’t his contract was a turning point in the course of the Kansas City Royals.  Just like the Sweeney contract, the Meche contract is about so much more than just the money.  What remains to be seen is whether or not the Meche contract will lead to other major signings or if it will stand alone like Sweeney’s did.

I’m hoping for the best.  For Gil Meche’s career and the Royals I want everything to be okay.  What I want to happen isn’t going to change the fact that I have a feeling that we just lost our #2 starter to the DL for part, or all, of the 2010 season.  I hope I am wrong.

~~~~~

Nick over at Royals Authority covered this topic in an article earlier today, and did an excellent job in the process.  I recommend you check it out.

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

In the spirit of full disclosure, I had no earthly idea how this would turn out when I started putting together the numbers.  My initial assumption was that the Royals would fare well.  We are talking about each player’s career seasons after all.  Since it is the Royals we are talking about I also assumed that they would still fall short in a number of categories.

The Methodology and Tough Decisions:

I selected the best full season from each player on my projected opening day roster.  In trying to put together my 25-man roster, I realized that the Royals are going to have to make a number of very tough decisions.  For the purposes of this exercise I am concerned with how they would perform as a team over the entire 2010 season if each player replicated the best season on their existing major league resume.  In picking my roster, I made the basic assumption that none of the players considered would open the season on the DL.

When it comes to the position players, there were three decisions I had to make to round out the bench.

First, I kept Mitch Maier over Brian N. Anderson as the 4th outfielder.  My own personal feelings aside* both players are getting equal playing time thus far in the spring and Maier is decidedly winning the battle between the two.  The other factor in this decision was that Anderson has an option remaining while Maier doesn’t.  In the end this one really wasn’t a tough call considering what the two players have shown thus far in Surprise.

*Mitch Maier is a better player than Brian Anderson.

Second, Willie Bloomquist doesn’t make the team and gets released.  With a healthy Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo on the bench, there just isn’t room for Wee Willie.  Even if we factor in that Alex Gordon will probably start the season on the 15-day DL, I still don’t see how the Royals can keep Bloomquist.

Third, Josh Fields gets put on waivers and the Royals cross their fingers that no one claims him before they can get him to Triple-A Omaha.  In reality, Fields will most likely make the team because of Gordon’s probable DL stint, but his days with the team may be numbered unless someone else is cut or traded.

Before moving on to the pitching staff, I think it is important to recognize that the above shows some progress in terms of adding talent at the major league level.  Last season there was no question that Wee Willie B had a spot on the opening day roster.  Heading into 2010, I don’t see how the organization can justify keeping him around if they are trying to win and field the best team based on the options at hand.  This is a sign of minor progress in my book, but it is progress nonetheless.

To round out the pitching staff, a few decisions had to be made with regard to the final bullpen spots, but the rotation and part of the bullpen was pretty easy to put into place.  The 5th spot in the rotation remains up for grabs between Kyle Davies and Robinson Tejeda, but regardless of who claims the spot by opening day there is little doubt in my mind that the “loser” will wind up in the bullpen and will make some starts during the season.

[Update]  Kyle Davies got destroyed again on Sunday.  I am still holding out hope that he has a bright future, but his spring training performance is making it very hard to maintain my position.  Spring numbers mean next to nothing but Davies is looking more and more like he is bullpen bound.

First, Carlos Rosa heads back to Triple-A Omaha, at least to start the year.  This move is based on the working assumption that Rosa has a fourth option to use as Bob Dutton reported back on February 17th.  If this is incorrect, then he stays on the roster and Roman Colon, who is definitely out of options, gets the boot.

Second, Victor Marte joins Rosa in the Triple-A bullpen.  Again referring to Dutton’s options chart, it appears that Marte has all three of his options remaining.  I’m not sure Victor has much long term value to the Royals, but they don’t have to get rid of him so they may as well keep him around.

Third, all of the pitchers who received minor league deals fail to make the team.  This one isn’t much of a stretch though RHP-Josh Rupe has been one of the more impressive bullpen options thus far this spring.

A Reason For Hope?

As you look at the list that follows, you will notice that a majority of the players on my 25-man roster had their best season in either 2008 or 2009.  I’m not sure if this is a reason for hope or not.  It is also worth pointing out that Jose Guillen, Scott Podsednik, and Jason Kendall are the only position players who have close to a zero percent chance of having a career season.  The rest of the ten offensive players very well could perform at a higher level in 2010 than they have at any prior season.

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The Position Players:

Catcher:  Jason Kendall (1998)
First Base:  Billy Butler (2009)
Second Base:  Chris Getz (2009)
Third Base:  Alex Gordon (2008)
Shortstop:  Yuniesky Betancourt (2007)
Left Field:  Scott Podsednik (2003)
Center Field:  Rick Ankiel (2008)
Right Field:  David DeJesus (2008)
Designated Hitter:  Jose Guillen (2003)
Bench C:  Brayan Pena (2009)
Bench 2B/3B:  Alberto Callaspo (2009)
Bench 2B/SS:  Mike Aviles (2008)
Bench OF:  Mitch Maier (2009)

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The Pitching Staff:

Starter #1:  RHP-Zack Greinke (2009)
Starter #2:  RHP-Gil Meche (2007)
Starter #3:  RHP-Brian Bannister (2007)
Starter #4:  RHP-Luke Hochevar (2009)
Starter #5:  RHP-Kyle Davies (2008)
Reliever:  RHP-Robinson Tejeda (2009)
Reliever:  RHP-Kyle Farnsworth (2001)
Reliever:  RHP-Juan Cruz (2008)
Reliever:  RHP-Roman Colon (2009)
Reliever:  LHP-Dusty Hughes (2009)
Reliever:  LHP-Edgar Osuna (2009)
Closer:  RHP-Joakim Soria (2008)

While we are on the topic of pitching I should point out that I went ahead and used Hochevar’s 2009 season instead of his 2008.  While 2009 was worse in terms of ERA+, he did drop his BB/9 and increase his SO/9 and obviously his SO/BB.  His H/9 increased from 10.0 to 10.5 which caused his WHIP to jump just a bit from 1.47 to 1.49.  Hoch’s big downfall in 2009 was the jump in his HR/9 which went from 0.8 to 1.4.

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So if each and every player on the above listed 25-man roster managed to duplicate their career-best seasons in 2010, how would they stack up against the 2009 AL average and the 2009 AL Central leader in each category?

I calculated the data based on my 25-man roster and realized that I needed to adjust the scale of the Royals team.  In 2009 the AL average for team at bats was 5,569 and the AL Central high was 5,641.  My Royals roster came in a 6,022 so I recalculated the offensive totals for Kansas City based on 5,600 at bats.  On the pitching side, my Royals staff threw 1,282.67 innings while the AL average was 1,444 and the AL Central high was 1,459.  The only stat I had to adjust was runs allowed and did so based off the AL average innings mark.

Let’s start with the Royals, each at their best (RCY), against the 2009 AL average team (09 ALAv):

The above shows the Royals coming out ahead in almost every category.  They fail to best the AL average in only two places and they are the categories any fan would probably guess right off the bat given the players that make up the roster.  Not only do they fall short in the HR category relative to the league average, they fall 28 short.  Last year Kansas City finished second to last in the AL with 144, using their total of 155 based on the above they would have finished … second to last in the AL.  When it comes to drawing walks the real 2009 Royals generated 457 BB good for another second to last finish.  Using their career years would cause them to rise just one spot to finish 12th last year instead of 13th.  The 822 runs scored by this career year roster would tie them for the 5th best season, with the 1977 team, in franchise history.  In 2009 their run total would have placed them 4th in the AL, five runs ahead of the Minnesota Twins.

The Royals offense, even based on career years, still wouldn’t dominate compared to the other AL team in 2009.  The pitching staff is an entirely different story.  The team finished 2009 with 842 runs allowed which was good for a 12th place finish out of the 14 AL teams.  Using their career years, their 635 runs allowed would rank them first in the AL by a whopping 57 runs.  Runs scored was just one of the categories in which they would have led the American League.  They would fail to finish first in BB/9 and SO/9.  Their 3.0 BB/9 team mark would fall just shy of besting the Minnesota Twins 2009 mark of 2.9.  The Royals 7.6 SO/9 would finish 3rd in the AL behind the Yankees 7.8 and Red Sox 7.7.

We’ve looked at the career year Royals in relation to the AL averages, so now lets take a look at how they stack up against the best AL Central finisher in each category.

It should be pointed out that the AL Central leader in 3B and SO/9 was in fact the Royals.

In addition to looking at the Royals production if each of their players matched their career best seasons, I thought it would also be interesting to look at how the numbers would compare if we used their career numbers based on a 162 game average (RC162a).

With that comparison made, we can now put all the columns together.

The above fails to consider defensive statistics all together, but it does give us a range of how productive and effective the Royals 25-man roster will be over the course of the 2010 season.  If they all collectively match their career best seasons, the Royals will be one of the best teams in the AL with a pitching staff that is off the charts with a productive offense to back it up.  The current roster is going to be well below average when it comes to home runs no matter how you slice it, but if each player matches their career best season the Kansas City Royals will be the 2010 AL Central division champions.  This is, of course, the best case scenario.

If the Royals match their career stat line when putting their career numbers into 162 game average, the picture gets a little less rosy.  In this light the offense would finish above the AL average in 5 of the 10 offensive categories and below the AL average in the other 5.  The pitching staff would be above average in 3 of the 7 categories and below average in the other 4, but the numbers are close.  I don’t know if this team could win the AL Central, but it would certainly be competitive and probably give us another season like 2003.

I don’t think were are going to see this team match their collective career averages, let alone collectively have career years.  However, this does provide a scenario, however unrealistic it is, that uses the current roster and winds up with a competitive Kansas City Royals team for 2010.  I’m still predicting a last place finish, but a little positive thought never hurts!

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

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