The Royals had been mum about his condition at first, but he’s since headed back to Kansas City for an MRI and the early prognosis is that he’ll be ready for a return in 2-to-4 weeks. High ankle sprains can be tricky, and the Royals don’t want Dyson to rush back and re-injure himself. Dyson, at least, is in good spirits:

Thanks everyone for the love, mrzoombiya will be ok and will have a healthy return soon, I want to wish my team the best of luck on the road

— JarrodDyson (@mrzoombiya) May 17, 2013

David Lough filled in fine in his first game back in the big leagues, going 2-4 with the Royals only RBI and he offered an outfield assist on a Brandon Moss double attempt. If the Royals are going to continue to split time between Jeff Francoeur and a left-handed bat, Lough’s first game is at least encouraging.

Jorge Bonifacio with Wilmington in their 2013 home opener (Jen Nevius).

Speaking of right field, key Royals prospect Jorge Bonifacio will be on the shelf for 6-to-8 weeks with a broken bone in his hand. That pauses what was turning into a big season in High A Wilmington, as Bonifacio – ranked sixth among Royals prospects by Baseball America – had a .325/.404/.452 line in 34 games in the Carolina League. With Wil Myers traded and Bubba Starling a level lower and struggling, he’s the next impact outfield prospect the Royals have (or was prior to the injury).

Bonifacio turns 20 years old next month, so the injury doesn’t throw him way off track, but a you still want a top prospect to be on the field rather than recuperating. He’s got an advanced approach for his age and makes good contact. With a few mechanical tweaks, he may turn into a bigger power hitter, as well.

Finally, the only other two Kansas City Royals on the disabled list aside from Dyson are Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. Both are on the rehab track after Tommy John surgery last summer.

Duffy recently threw a four inning simulated game on May 16th and continues to do other workouts. Paulino threw a three inning game on the 17th and a four inning game is his next step. It also appears that both pitchers are going on a normal rest schedule to get in line with a regular starting schedule. Duffy’s surgery occurred on June 13th. Paulino’s was on July 3rd. Typically, it’s at least 11 months for a pitcher to come back to regular game action after tearing their UCL. Duffy’s velocity was back into the mid-90s earlier this month, so he may not miss a beat when he comes back.

Duffy made it to May 13 with surgery coming a month later. Paulino threw his last pitch in Kansas City on June 6 and had surgery on July 3.

April 22, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (23) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Going into the 2013 season, both will still be rehabbing. The typical timeframe these days is about a year, though, of course, every arm and injury is different. John Lamb had Tommy John surgery on June 3, 2011 but his return didn’t come until the middle of last August (though the delay turned out to be more related to an ankle injury that popped up than any slow recovery of the arm). A typical schedule could put Duffy in line to return next June and Paulino just before the All-Star break, assuming no setbacks.

But then they also need to have some rehab starts. Figure on at least a month for each, so that pushes it back to July for Duffy and August for Paulino. That limits the amount of impact they may have on a 2013 Royals team (though could still turn into 10 starts for Duffy and six or so from Paulino).

There’s also the question of how effective they may be when they come back. While most pitchers can return to regular duty within a year, they’re not fully effective until a year and a half or so.

A study done by Jeff Zimmerman and Brian Cartwright for the 2013 Hardball Times Annual noted that pitchers generally see a jump in their ERA and HR/9 rates in the first year back from Tommy John surgery. Those combined 16 starts may not be very meaningful aside from getting both pitchers back into the routine of being a part of a big league rotation. By the second season back, performance returns to the normal projected levels. Zimmerman and Cartwright used Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman as recent examples of this pattern. So in 2013, it’s a safe bet that in a shortened season, Paulino and Duffy will see worse numbers than they’d left with.

It makes it a bit more difficult to evaluate Duffy in that regard because his overall sample size in the big leagues isn’t very large as he hasn’t quite made the normal full season equivalent number of starts and is still a bit of a question mark. It won’t be entirely certain if he fits a pattern if 2013 is rough and 2014 is much better or if it’s simply his own development. In his six starts last year, his hits and homers per nine innings had both gone down while his strikeout rate had risen. Those are good signs, despite an increase in walks per nine innings. His xFIP of 4.77 would have been an improvement over his 5.64 ERA in 2011 (but not his 4.53 xFIP that year).

Duffy looks like an average major league starter with upside to be much better, so those are the signs to look for in 2013 with an eye toward a solid leap in 2014. Based on the historical data, Duffy’s probably due to be stuck in place a bit in his couple months of time.

May 26, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Felipe Paulino (59) pitches in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Paulino’s not an easy guy to nail down either. He struggled so much in the National League before the Royals took a chance on him and were rewarded. His body of work leans much more towards the bad than the good, though his recent results are favorable, especially his start to 2012. But we still don’t really know. He’s always looked like he should be a better pitcher based on his fielding independent numbers and to watch him, he does have the kind of stuff that would seem to make him a good pitcher.

His 2013 could be right around average in his limited time. After parts of two seasons where he had 177 innings and a 3.86 ERA (combining his Colorado and Kansas City stats), so if he follows the pattern, that would put him in the 4.50 ERA range. Both pitchers could contribute once they return but it’s not safe to assume that their return will push the Royals towards a late-season playoff run.

An aspect where neither pitcher follows the pattern is their velocity. There’s usually a drop in velocity on a fastball from year to year (just based on age and wear) but a larger drop can signal a problem. Neither Paulino nor Duffy had sharp drop. Duffy even gained two MPH on his fastball from 2011 to 2012 (though it could have dropped as the 2012 season wore on if he’d seen 30 starts, nonetheless he was averaging 95 MPH when he was shut down). Paulino’s fastball velocity started increasing from 2007 to 2010 but not in a huge chunks. He went from 95.3 to 95.4 to 95.5. In 2011 and 2012, he averaged 95.1 MPH on the fastball. That’s not a sharp drop at all.

What might be most important to watch is their velocity in 2013. There’s not as strong of a pattern to pitchers coming back from surgery and having it affect their velocity. Some lose speed, some gain. Some stay the same. They’re both hard throwers and I think their secondary pitches would be more effective if they were to remain that way. If that’s the case, 2014 could be a fun year to watch both.

May 21, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Felipe Paulino (59) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals beat tomorrow night’s deadline by agreeing to terms with pitcher Felipe Paulino on a one-year deal for 2013 to avoid arbitration.

Paulino had been projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $2.7 million in arbitration, but the deal’s value came in at $1.75 million, a cut from last year’s $1.90 million. Bob Dutton of the Star reported that incentives in the deal could increase the value to $2 million. Paulino’s Tommy John surgery and questions related to his rehab timetable had to have led to his pay cut.

In seven starts last year, Paulino threw 37.2 innings and had a 1.67 ERA. In five of those seven starts, he surrendered no earned runs – however, his final start only lasted 0.2 innings, as he left the game with an apparent groin injury suffered while fielding an infield dribbler. He went on the disabled list and, after some rehab starts, found the tear in the UCL, necessitating surgery.

While he was healthy, Paulino had struck out 25% of the batters he faced in 2012, walking just 9.6%. Paulino started his throwing program this week and is hoping to get to a minor league rehab assignment in late May according to MLB.com, which would put him on track for a return to the big leagues in late-June, barring further complications.

The Royals have two more players eligible for arbitration – Chris Getz and Luke Hochevar. Paulino’s signing shouldn’t impact Getz in any way, but with the Royals looking for more pitching, and with a projected $4.4 million salary for Hochevar next year, it seems something’s got to give. Hochevar’s performance has been poor through his entire Royals career and he’s getting expensive. He’ll also tie up a 40 man roster spot if they tender him a contract. They’ll want that spot for another starter at some point, whether it be by trade or free agent signing.

• Pitcher Luke Hochevar
• Second Baseman Chris Getz
• Pitcher Felipe Paulino

If the Royals offer any of the three a contract, they’ll remain on the 40 man roster, figures will be exchanged by January 18 (at the latest) and by February 20, one way or another, the player will have a contract figure, either by prior agreement on terms or by an arbiter’s ruling.

If they don’t offer a contract, that player will be a free agent. Before he was designated for assignment, Brayan Pena was eligible but now is off the roster. Catcher Brett Hayes was also eligible after being claimed off waivers, but the Royals have agreed to a $600,000 deal for 2013 with him.

May 21, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Felipe Paulino (59) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

It’s getting fairly late in the game. So far, there hasn’t been much indication one way or another about what the Royals are going to do. Paulino is probably going to be safe. He’s pitched well since joining the Royals and, despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, the Royals seem to have him in mind for a return in or around July. MLB Trade Rumors projects his salary to fall around $2.7 million, which isn’t a big hit to the payroll, especially with what he’s shown previously.

If there is a hitch, it’s the injury factor. Last year, he opened the season on the disabled list, made seven starts, went back on the DL, made a few rehab starts, then was diagnosed with a UCL tear. There were concerns about his health before the tear, with questions about his shoulder. Perhaps the time off and a good rehab program as he rebuilds arm strength will assuage those concerns, or perhaps he won’t ever get back the effectiveness he’s shown with the Royals. He should be an easy guy to retain.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 90%

Getz is probably safe, too. He faced multiple injuries, finally succumbing to a fractured thumb in mid-August. The good news? Despite those injuries, Getz had a career year at the plate, hitting .275. He had the second most extra base hits in his career.

The bad news? Even though it was only 13 extra base hits, it was the second most extra base hits in his career. He hit .275, sure, but he only got on base at a .312 clip. He was pretty good in the field, but overall, still barely above a replacement level player. He’s just not somebody a team can reliably put into an everyday second baseman role. As a late-inning replacement for defense or as a pinch runner? Fine. As a once-or-twice-a-week start? No problem.

July 15, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second basemen Chris Getz (17) turns a double play with a throw to first over Chicago White Sox base runner A.J. Pierzynski (12) during the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

MLBTR projects his salary to be $1.2 million in 2013. About 2.5 times the league minimum. That’s reasonable for a player of his experience. But the Royals do have options if they want to go in another direction. Johnny Giavotella hasn’t taken the reins but he has an opportunity to do so in spring training. If he hits and shows any semblance of near-average defense, the job is his. The Royals were impressed with Tony Abreu last year and Irving Falu took his first opportunity in the big leagues and ran with it. None of these are perfect options, but they could be effective. I think it’s his last chance, but Giavotella has the most upside of the group, while Getz has hardly any upside at all. The Royals might be better off non-tendering Getz and using Falu as a utility infielder and part time second baseman. They’d same some marginal money, but they’d have more flexibility, as Falu can switch hit and play multiple positions.

Still, the Royals love Getz and rave about his grit. He’s the scrappy, old-school, dirty jersey player coaches love. I think they let that mask his obvious faults, but hey, it’s not my team.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 70%

The big question in this whole operation is Luke Hochevar.

The story is no different. He looks great for stretches, the looks wretched for other stretches. For all the “stuff” he has on the mound, he just can’t get consistent results. One day he’ll outduel David Price and can turn around and give up seven runs before you’ve reached your seat.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Kansas City Royals defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

He’s projected for $4.4 million in 2013 by MLBTR, but only Ubaldo Jimenez had more losses in the American League. Nobody else allowed more runs or earned runs. He entered 2012 with a 5.29 career ERA and it went up after 2012.

You look at his numbers – a decent 6.2 K/9, close to 200 innings a year, usually a good ground ball rate – and he looks like at least an average pitcher, but he’s usually well below that. He just should be better. The Royals believe in him, and that’s what they should do while he’s still on the roster, but he’s got to turn it around, and for real this time.

But to pay him $4.4 million to guess at if he’d flip the switch or not is silly, especially when other gaps need to be filled. With Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith and Bruce Chen, the Royals have a rotation they can march out there filled with players better than Hochevar already. If they sign or trade for another pitcher, all the better. With Paulino (see above) coming back along with Danny Duffy and (knock on wood) the emergence of Mike Montgomery, Hochevar is just unnecessary, especially at that price. They simply don’t need him.

My percentage guess he’s retained: 15%

But for now, nothing’s happened.

Dayton Moore has never taken a case to arbitration, so look for the Royals to make their decisions before the deadline. Even if there’s no announcement of money by the deadline, both sides can come to an agreement up until a scheduled arbitration hearing. The deadline just determines who’ll actually be kept on the roster.

Paulino and Getz should be safe. Hochevar’s gotta go.

(That would be a fun game, let’s try: Luke Hochevar, starting pitcher. Nope, see, that doesn’t work.)

So much has been made of the Royals need to “finally commit to winning”, that if money isn’t spent then the owner of a business who is entitled to make money on his business greedy David Glass might just have to rewind himself straight out of town. (Because that’s how it works.) The time is now and the division is ripe for the taking, because it’s really quite terrible after all.

But at what cost comes this pursuit of starting pitching? Is it by any means necessary? Is it overspend for a product that you know isn’t worth the cost? Is it, as some have written, making a “trade that hurts”?

Hopefully, the answer to all of these questions is “no”.

While there was supposed to be a window to complete this “Mission” – a window that keeps getting moved every year or so – opening and going through that window still needs to be done with some semblance of responsibility, just in case the effort to jump through isn’t met with a blue ribbon, but rather a deafening silence.

Payroll is a commodity just like service time for young, cheap players, and in Dayton Moore’s tenure one thing he’s struggled with doing – the thing he’s struggled with the most – is appropriately allocating his available payroll dollars to players that can and will produce. (Say what you will about Glass, he’s spent more. Much more. He’s not been the one choosing the players.)

Because of this track record there’s a concern, a much deserved concern, that the starting pitching targets acquired will either a) not be much better than the arms already on the roster for a higher cost b) be a much higher cost but not be the type of difference makers to matter, saddling the organization with sunk costs in future years or c) be acquired by trade that cripples a preserved strength – offense – that really isn’t a strength to begin with.

There should almost be a “homerun or hope” approach to the arms targeted to better help this team moving forward. Have two or three names that can be acquired at the top of the free agent costs in baseball (Zack Greinke?) and try to get one of them. (One difference maker sets this team up better than two or three middle of the road guys.) And have two or three names that can be acquired by using pieces in the low minors to a rebuilding team (Calixte, Mondesi, Ventura, etc.).

If none of those work, then try and find the “change of scenery” guy with the chance to be more under the Royals system, the same way the scouts saw something in Felipe Paulino. This way the organization isn’t crippled with the contract of a pitcher who’s probably no better than a No.3 with a roster that’s really not quite there yet, and there are pieces still in place from June and July of next year to use as pieces to really make a splash.

The main concern is a panic move at this point. While everyone wants to see a winning team for a change, overpaying for a pitcher just for the sake of making a move and getting someone you don’t truly want, would be a big mistake.

At the end of the year, first round pick Kyle Zimmer had surgery to clean out some bone chips in his elbow (though this was never as threatening as the ligament tears the others suffered).

Obviously none of that is good news.

The good news is that they’re all on their way back.

Soria has recently started throwing again and reports say that he looks good. The Royals have a decision to make on his contract, but the most reasonable idea is to buy out his remaining options for $750,000 rather than pay him $8 million in 2013 (when they don’t know how effective he might be).

Blake Wood is set to start throwing again tomorrow and seems to be ahead of schedule. While Wood isn’t as big of a name as others in the bullpen, he was a serviceable middle relief option in 2011. His presence on the 2012 Royals could have helped soak up a few more innings. He would have been a good option in the first half of the season when the Royals were routinely using five or six relievers to get through games.

April 22, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Danny Duffy (23) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Duffy and Paulino are the two names that mean the most going into 2013. Both are expected to be a part of a contending Royals rotation (or at least be in the competition for it). Paulino is staying in Kansas City to work his way back. Bob Dutton reported he’s likely two months from starting a throwing program of any kind. He was off to a hot start last season and had he stayed healthy, would look like a great fit in the rotation right now.

While Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer languish in the minors, Duffy made it up in 2011, then broke camp in the rotation last year. He started out well, striking out more batters and looked like he was figuring out the level of competition, but after six starts, his elbow gave out. As a lefty, he added that element to the rotation, as the other options as southpaw starters turned out to be Will Smith, Bruce Chen, Ryan Verdugo (once) and Everett Teaford. None of those options are particularly overpowering, and a staff would do well to have a strikeout guy every fifth day, especially throwing from the left side.

Both Duffy and Paulino hope to get back around July. Rehab time on Tommy John surgery is usually about 10-14 months, so that may be the optimistic timetable.

Lamb and Zimmer are the two closest to 100%. Lamb’s surgery was long enough ago that it’s just a matter of getting his game conditioning back and used to the pace of the game again. Lamb will start back in Double A after 13 innings at the Rookie level late in 2012. He struck out 14 batters and walked four, though he wasn’t totally sharp. After an offseason of work and more time, his strength and command will return.

Zimmer’s injury was something reported as well-known at the time and bone chips weren’t a short-term worry. It’s still a little scary when your first round pick goes under the knife, especially when it’s a pitcher and the area of concern is the elbow. But everything went fine and he’s in line to start next season at High A Wilmington. In nine starts as a pro, Zimmer worked in 39.2 innings with an ERA of 2.04. He had better than a 5/1 K/BB ratio over that span and most reports pointed to a lot of life on his fastball. Zimmer could be a fast riser in the Royals system, possibly in Double A by the end of next season if he pitches well. Like Lamb, he’s expected to be 100% once spring training rolls around.

These are all good signs. The Royals look to add pitching this offseason, but there’s always a need for good arms on a pitching staff. The Royals could see four pitchers come back and contribute next year at the big league level, which would be a big lift and added depth for the whole organization.

Hope springs eternal.  In the chest of all long suffering fans beats an optimistic heart, one that yearns for his or her team to succeed and looks forward to the day when they can celebrate the same championship they’ve watched others enjoy for years.  Occasionally, there will be substance behind the hope and evidence that this year could be different, this could be the year we finally break through.

As you know, this season was “Our Time” and many of us believed 2012 would mark a turning point toward respectability.  Many of the talented young players we’ve watched growing up in the best farm system in baseball were finally arriving in the major leagues and Dayton Moore’s plan was coming together.  If you’ll admit it, I bet you were thinking the Royals would play well this year.  Few of us believed they were playoff bound in 2012, but almost all of us were confident other teams would not be looking past KC this season.

Then something happened.  I’m not sure if any of us know exactly what happened, but something happened.  The Royals play in a weak division which allowed them to remain competitive with a mediocre record and this motivated us to hold onto hope.  But now, only the most die-hard fan still believes the Royals have a shot at the playoffs.  Oh yes, we all still root for them and cheer them on and sit on the edge of our seats shouting for another victory…  but we’ve become realists and we know we won’t be watching the boys in blue this October.  Again.

When did this happen?  When exactly did the Royals 2012 season go off the rails?  If could have been at any one of many twists and turns in the road, and each of us might point toward a different event that caused it.  Here are a few candidates for the prime pothole that caused the Royals train to jump the track:

Pick a Date:  Injuries – There have been so many devastating injuries that have impacted the Royals that I can’t select one date.  At the major league level, the Royals lost Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain for approximately the first half of the season.  Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria have undergone Tommy John surgery.  Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz have been on-again and off-again with various injuries.  Other Royals have likely played hurt because the team couldn’t afford to lose another player.  Is it possible that one of these injuries could have cut the cord on the Royals’ season?

March 26:  Part of the excitement about 2012 surrounded the youth movement in KC.   The decision to leave Johnny Giavotella in Omaha and play a platoon of Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz probably wasn’t the key factor that derailed the Royals season, but I would say it was a telling sign of things to come and questionable decisions that would be made by the Royals brass.

Jonathan Broxton's April 11 meltdown is one of the candidates when looking for the reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

April 11:  Broxton’s first meltdown, and it was a classic.  Two walks, two hit-by-pitches, two runs scored, Broxton’s first blown save of the year, and the A’s didn’t even need a hit.  This was the first real splash of cold water I experienced following an off-season and Spring filled with hope and expectation.

April 14:  Chris Perez’s Twitter rant and victory over the Royals following an onfield melee.  I believe Perez’s tweet somehow motivated the Indians and demotivated the Royals.  This was just the 3^rd loss in the 12 consecutive loss streak and we all discovered the Royals were apparently a fragile team.  I work with an Indian fan and wow is it annoying when he defends Chris Perez, aka one of the biggest jerks in professional sports.  Here’s what Perez said on Twitter on April 14:

@chrisperez54 Huge team win tonight; time for a sweep to tell the Royals it’s not “Our Time”, it’s#TribeTime. P.S. You hit us, we hit you. Period.

April 24:  The 12^th loss of the 12 game losing streak occurred on April 24.  Many fans will point to this streak and complain that the Royals season ended almost before it began.  I have a difficult time arguing against this rather valid point, but still, the Royals fought back to within 4 games by the halfway mark, so I don’t think the streak completely derailed the season, but it certainly threw a gigantic roadblock in the way.

Eric Hosmer's season long slump is another reason the Royals season has gone off the rails. (Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE)

May 16:  Hosmer was under the Mendoza line almost by the time the first week of the season ended.  But most of us thought it was just a rough patch and he would pull out of it by mid-April.  Then we thought he’d be ok by early May, and then we thought for sure by the end of May he’d be swinging the bat well.  We were wrong.  On May 16 in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles, Hosmer walked to the plate 7 times and came away with zero hits, ending the game with a .174 average.  Yost took him out of the lineup the next two days.  By this time, we all knew Hosmer’s slump had become more than just a run of bad luck, and more importantly Ned Yost knew it too.  If any of your players goes through a prolonged slump, it negatively affects the team.  But if the team’s presumed star goes through a slump that so far has lasted for more than half the season, it’s extremely difficult for the team to overcome and could be a cause for that team’s playoff hopes to go off the rails.

June 30:  The Royals had climbed to within 4 games of .500 and were starting to open some eyes across the league.  Then without warning… THUD.  The worst team in baseball, the Minnesota Twins, took both games of a doubleheader from the Royals, and the team hasn’t sniffed .500 ever since.

July 2:  Robinson Cano omits Billy Butler from the home run derby.  I realize that this decision by the liar Cano has nothing to do with the Royals on-field performance, but it says everything about the respect we have across the league – none.  And occasionally, lack of respect can affect your psyche, which impacts your performance, etc., etc.

Which incident do you say was the cause of the Royals season to derail, or do you point to a different event, or a combination of events?  I suppose there are still many games to play during the long baseball season, and as they say, “it’s not over ‘till it’s over.”  But no matter what happens, I know “the Royals will get ‘em next year!”

If you don’t know anything about the automobile market in 1985, there’s a good reason for that.  There was nothing to know.  Nobody collects cars built in the 80’s because they were stodgy, slow, and ugly.  The market was starved for something exciting, a vehicle that could rejuvenate the industry.  We all sat on the edge of our seats waiting for the reveal of the new S-Series, a vehicle that you don’t remember and probably have never heard of – for good reason.  Have you ever seen an S-Series model Saturn?  Yuck.  It turned out to be an uninspiring piece of plastic junk.

The huge un-recouped investment in the Saturn Corporation by General Motors and subsequent lack of creative and groundbreaking design dulled all the luster on this once eagerly awaited car company.  And as you know, Saturn is now long gone, relegated to the dust bin of history.

Eric Hosmer may not be as good as we hoped he would be (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

It hurts me to even say this, but what if Eric Hosmer is the Royals’ Saturn Corporation?  The Royals of the past 20 years make a good comparison to the automotive industry of the 1980’s – underperforming, uninspiring, and underwhelming, with little hope of a turnaround.  The fan base has been desperate for any sign of hope and are willing to fall over themselves (me included) when even one prospect appears to have the slightest chance of becoming the next big thing.

We’ve set ourselves up for a potentially huge disappointment with Eric Hosmer.  When was the last time a prospect was so highly anticipated with an expectation that he could potentially turn the club around?  Zack Greinke might be the closest player, but I don’t think anyone expected Zack to elevate the entire team the way we believed Hosmer would impact the organization.

Hosmer was a #1 draft pick, the 3rd player selected in the 2008 draft.  He tore through minor league pitching like Bo Jackson through an Seattle Seahawk defensive backfield.  He carried himself like a veteran with one of the most magnificent and picturesque follow-through swings Royals fans have ever seen.  He had all the makings of a potential Superstar.  Many of us pinned our greatest hopes on him simply because we have been looking for light at the end of the tunnel for so long, even a spark would send us into a frenzy.

Our good looking young first baseman was ranked as the #8 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2011, batted .439 during his 26 game stint in AAA (that is not a misprint), and he impressed nearly everyone with his talent as he made his way toward the majors.  He debuted last year to oohs and ahhs, just the same as the Saturn S-Class did years ago.  But now that we bought our Hosmer sedan, drove him to work and parked him in our driveway every night for a few months, the bloom is beginning to come off the rose and we’re not quite as excited about him as we were a year ago.  I’m beginning to have just a tiny little bit of buyer’s remorse.

Royals fans have been making excuses for Hos for months now.  “He’s just in a sophomore slump, he’ll come out of it”, “as soon as he starts hitting to the opposite field, things will come together for him”, “he makes good contact, his hits are just finding a lot of gloves”, etc., etc.  We’re making excuses because we don’t want to admit that he may not be as good as we’ve hoped, because giving up on Hosmer is tantamount to giving up on the Royals.  Because we’re loyal true-blue fans, we keep waiting, and watching, and hoping for any sign that Hosmer’s bat will find its way again and reignite our passions the way our expectations of his future performance did a few months ago.  Because we love the Royals, this creates a situation where we CAN’T give up on Hosmer.

Let’s be realistic for a moment and say that other players have pulled out of worse sophomore slumps, although I can’t think of any right now.  Even on our own team, Alex Gordon took a few years to find his way and now he’s a strong contributor, although not a Superstar.  And this is really where the problem lies – Eric Hosmer can eventually be a good player, he might even be an All Star (someday, maybe), but because of our high expectations, he’ll end up as a stunning disappointment if he isn’t a Superstar.  Face it, if Hosmer were a newly premiering Fall Television Series, his ratings would have already forced the networks to pull him from the schedule.

So here’s what I think – the race for the 2012 pennant is over.  The winner hasn’t been decided yet, but there can be little doubt that one of the losers will be the Kansas City Royals.  We’re threatening the Twins for last place; Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Joakim Soria will be on the shelf until at least 2013 or later; and the season is more than half over.  Let’s start preparing for next year.  Let’s stop worrying about bruising Hosmer’s psyche and let’s send him to Omaha and let him earn his way back to the majors.  It’s worked for other players, including Alex Gordon, it certainly couldn’t hurt Hosmer.

Let Hosmer spend some quality time with the club’s hitting instructors and see if he can recapture some of the magic he experienced in 2011.  And while they’re at it, maybe they can coach him to stop that stupid swipe-grab he tries to make at first base every time there’s an errant throw.  I’m not sure if he is just putting on a show with this move, or if he honestly thinks it’s a proper way to play a short hop.  It looks very amateurish to me and he’s going to clown-suit himself eventually when one of these throws skips past him and down the right field line.  This technique has burned him at least once this season that I’ve personally witnessed, and will probably come back to bite him and the Royals some day when the game is on the line if he doesn’t stop it.

Eric Hosmer sends a ball over the outfield wall in Spring Training (Credit: Alan Barrington)

I remember sitting in the stands last Spring in Surprise Arizona, eager with anticipation for Eric Hosmer’s at bat.  I even snapped a picture of his flawless swing that resulted in a Cleveland Indian pitch being deposited over the Center Field wall – it was a thing of beauty.  But something happened to Hosmer between that day and the start of the regular season, and the result is that he’s lost his way and he can’t seem to find it again.  Let’s face the facts, and let’s treat him the way we would treat anyone we love – tell him the truth and send him to get help.  It’s either that, or we all need to admit that he may not be as good as we hoped he would be.

Many of the challenges the Royals have faced this year can be attributed to the multitude of injuries that have plagued the team.  The Royals experienced more serious injuries in Spring Training than during all of 2011, and we are only now beginning to see a sliver of light at the end of the tunnel.

The 2012 injury story began with a backup catcher in a noncompetitive situation.  While Manuel Pina wasn’t expected to contribute much to the Royals in 2012 (little did they know they could have used him to open the season after Salvador Perez went down), but on February 22 he torn his meniscus and this injury was the beginning of a long line of devastating setbacks the team has suffered to its roster.

Joakim Soria spoiled Royals fans for several years. (Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE)

On March 13, Salvador Perez twisted his knee resulting in an almost identical injury to Manuel Pina, causing the Royals to lose 2 of their top 3 catchers for the first half of the season.  This roster hole forced the team to pick up Humberto Quintero, Mr. “Catch and Throw,” in a trade with Houston.  “Q” as he was frequently called by teammates was heralded as a great defensive player, although I never personally witnessed any evidence of this, and at bat he performed as you would expect a veteran bench player to perform.  (Lousy.)  So the Royals endured the first half of the season with little to no production from behind the plate.  Fortunately, Salvador returned to the lineup in June, and all is right with the world again.  Well, at least in the catching world.

I was sitting in the stands in Surprise, Arizona on March 18 when Joakim Soria was on the mound and felt a “tug” in his elbow.  He hadn’t pitched well that day and there was an uneasiness in the stands among Royals fans that something was definitely wrong.  We later learned that tug was a warning bell that Soria was going to require Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career, and forced the Royals to use Jonathan “roller coaster” Broxton as their closer.  As many people have accurately said, for the most part Broxton is getting the job done, but few players have caused fans (including me) more angst than he has.  Soria definitely spoiled us.

But Joakim isn’t the only Royals pitcher to go under the knife.  Not that any of us would have been excited to see Blake Wood in Kansas City this year, but he is out for the season with a case of the Tommy John illness.  As is Felipe Paulino – just as he was beginning to prove that possibly all of his potential and “stuff” might translate into solid performances and wins.  It’s sad when your rotation is so weak that you miss Felipe Paulino.  But I miss him, I really really do.

The Royals anxiously await Danny Duffy's recovery from Tommy John surgery (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

It brings a tear to my eye as I remember Danny Duffy exiting the game after throwing only 13 pitches on Mother’s Day.  I think every educated baseball fan immediately knew this meant another key contributor was lost for this season, and possibly beyond.  If you’re wondering, yes, Tommy John strikes again.  Is it contagious?

Not that I’m thrilled to see Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup, and I’m not enamored with Chris Getz either, but when the team is thin at a few positions like second base, you don’t want to see anyone on your roster sitting in the trainer’s room.  Escobar has experienced nagging ankle problems, and Getz has been working through a variety of ailments including bruised ribs and a lower leg lateral strain that have sent both of them up and down so many times that it’s been a guessing game about who will play second base each day.

The Royals started the year strong, winning 2 out of 3 from the heavily favored Angels.  Then on April 10, while winning the 3^rd of their first 5 games of the year, Lorenzo Cain bumped into the Centerfield wall while chasing down a fly ball and suffered what was initially called a “slight pull of the left groin.”  This slight pull turned into a torn hip flexor and an on-again, off-again stay on the disabled list that has kept him out of the Royals lineup ever since.

Salvador Perez blocks the plate, and all is right with the world again. (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

The good news is the Royals appear to be healing up.  As mentioned earlier, Salvador Perez has already made an impact in the short time he’s been back on the team, and most Lorenzo Cain is on the verge of making his first appearance in KC this year.

Unfortunately, the team’s pitching woes won’t be corrected anytime soon, but if Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, Joakim Soria, and John Lamb (a Top 20 prospect who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011) needed to sit out a year, it’s much better that it happen this year rather than next.  (Although, I suppose we don’t know for certain when any of them will return.)  In 2013 we expect Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to be in KC, Eric Hosmer’s sophomore slump to be in the rear view mirror, we’ll have Salvador and Lorenzo for the entire season, and the Royals front office will be laser focused on adding a prime arm or two to the rotation through trades or free agency.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the serious injury bug doesn’t visit the Royals again next year.

He’s still seeking a second opinion, but commonly, the UCL is the ligament replaced during Tommy John surgery.

We know all of this already because Paulino is the fourth Royals pitcher to require the procedure after Joakim Soria, Blake Wood and Danny Duffy all went under the knife.

Paulino opened the season on the disabled list with a sore right elbow but was strong when he returned, allowing just seven earned runs in 37.2 innings while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. He looked like he was ready to assume the role of the rotation’s workhorse.

Then in a start against the Twins, he slipped fielding a grounder and landed awkwardly. He was placed on the disabled list again, this time with a groin strain. He made a rehab start in Double A Northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, working three innings. It was assumed that he was near a return to the big leagues.

Instead, it’s another pitcher on the shelf.

That tempers some of the enthusiasm Royals fans were feeling after a strong 7-2 stretch of games that has the team just five games under .500 and 4.5 back of first in the division.

They rebounded pretty nicely, though.

A return trip home was just right for the Royals, as they used late inning heroics to sweep the Brewers, take a series against the Cardinals, and unleashed a stifling mix of bullpen arms to get past the Astros. As they head home for the last interleague series of the year, they’re 7-2 in their last three series, taking their wins by a combined margin of nine runs.

"It ain't easy," Ned Yost might say. Photo Credit:

After Tuesday’s 2-0 win, the TV broadcast team noted a surprising stat. The Royals are second in the American League in shutouts. Even with a rough looking starting rotation and a slew of injuries, the Royals have reached that distinction.

This past week-plus showed one Royals blogger that this is a tougher team than we’d thought during their 12 game losing streak in April. In May and June (so far), the Royals are 25-21.

The result of the recent surge has the Royals five games under .500 and four and a half games behind the Indians in the AL Central.

All this without their long-time closer. All this with a struggling Eric Hosmer through the first two months of the year. All this with 10 different starting pitchers, two of which have had significant injury battles (Danny Duffy is out after Tommy John surgery; Felipe Paulino opened the year on the DL and is currently rehabbing for a return later in the month).

All this without their future franchise catcher.

It’s way too early to get worked up and start cutting paper for the parade on the Plaza, but it’s encouraging to see a team that looked like any other team from 2004 to the present for stretches of April make such a different impact as the season approaches its midpoint. Eric Hosmer started out with a surge in June but has cooled a bit. Still, he’s doing much better than he had performed in April and May. Alex Gordon looked to be regressing back to the same hitter we’d grown frustrated with, but moving back to the leadoff spot has worked wonders, as he’s gotten on base all but one game since and usually reaches multiple times a game.

Then, when their bullpen needed as much rest as possible – the Royals got about 70% of their innings from the bullpen in the last two games of the St. Louis series – they managed to get six innings out of Jonathan Sanchez and two (rough) innings from Louis Coleman. The following night, Luke Hochevar turned in a great start and ate up another 7.2 innings.

Now Paulino is close to a return. Now Salvador Perez is close to a return. Eventually, Wil Myers will have wiped out any excuses the Royals could make to say he shouldn’t be in the big leagues. Lorenzo Cain might even make it through this latest rehabilitation assignment.

Those are three good pieces for this team. Perez has been on fire during his rehab assignment and could be back up as early as Friday’s opener at home against the Cardinals. Paulino is about a week away, and Myers could show up at any time now that the Super Two deadline is projected to have passed.

It’s counting on a lot to say that the trio will lead to a resurgence, but Paulino was the best starter the Royals had before his groin injury. Myers has hammered more homers than Clint Robinson, minor league superstar and the former Texas League Triple Crown winner in 2010, in more than 100 fewer at bats. Perez offers a lot more behind the plate and with the bat than either of Humberto Quintero and Brayan Pena.

Will those three be enough to push the Royals to some kind of push in the division? They’ve gotten some solid starts out of Vin Mazzaro which has surprised nearly everybody and at some point, even with a taxi squad in Omaha, the bullpen could fade in the second half after so many innings.

The 2012 season has been a target of sorts while we wait out The Process. Some have jumped on Dayton Moore for being in year six of his rebuilding effort while other teams have made quicker strides. Setbacks have occurred, but it is frustrating to see teams turn things around much quicker. Still, the latest stretch has show the Royals that they don’t always need the biggest output at the plate to win.

"Can you believe this luck, you guys?" Photo Credit: Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

Most nights, three or four runs won’t be enough, but on some nights it is, fortunately. Right now, the Royals are learning how to make that happen. That’s a lesson that teams of the last decade never managed to pick up.

Now, though, it’s Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar on the field during these close wins. Its Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera holding the lead for Jonathan Broxton. Pieces of future championship teams are learning how to win the tough games – against National League opponents at least.

Here’s to hoping it sticks. Optimism is a fun feeling, even if there’s the conditioned twinge of skepticism still hanging around.

The Storm Chasers hit four homeruns, two by Max Ramirez. Salvador Perez again caught all nine innings and went 4-for-4. He also scored three runs. Johnny Giavotella went 2-for-5.

Brian Fletcher playing some LF with the Blue Rocks

NW Arkansas took yet another game from Tulsa, as they won 7-6. The Naturals scored four runs in the bottom of  the 7th inning and held on for the victory.

There were two KC Royals making rehab appearances with the Naturals. Felipe Paulino started and allowed three runs on four hits and two walks over just three innings. He allowed two homeruns and struck out just one. Paulino threw 54 pitches, 33 for strikes. Lorenzo Cain got the start in centerfield and batted leadoff, as he went 2-for-5 with two runs scored. He also played all nine innings.

The Naturals also welcomed two new members to the club: Brian Fletcher and Alex McClure. Both got into their first Double-A games on Wednesday. I could see the Fletcher move happening, since he was Wilmington’s best hitter, but McClure has been under .200 all season long. However injuries to middle infielders Christian Colon and Sharlon Schoop gave McClure the opportunity (both are now on the DL). Unfortunately, Fletcher started in left field (where he doesn’t play his best baseball) and was taken out late in the game for defense (he went 0-for-4 with a run scored). McClure went 1-for-4, but struck out twice.

Still no games yet for Bubba Starling with Burlington, who is 2-0 to start the season.

Oakland entered the game as losers of eight straight and the Royals opened up doing everything they could to make sure they lost the ninth. Alex Gordon walked and a newly-activated Yuniesky Betancourt doubled to right-center to drive him in. After a fly ball moved him to third and a bloop by Mike Moustakas drove him in, the Royals had given Paulino two runs to work with. The Royals recorded eight hits, with every batter except Jarrod Dyson contributing one.

That’s all it took.

Felipe Paulino rolled on Friday night. Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Despite some shakiness in the middle innings, Paulino was strong, striking out five and inducing eight ground outs. He also picked off two runners, catching Jemile Weeks taking off for third too soon and catching him with a throw to Moustakas and later picked off Yeonis Cespedes at first. The A’s only got three hits, including one on a comebacker to the mound that Paulino lost after it deflected off his glove.

Over 29,000 fans saw the Royals win their first game after an off day and just their sixth game at home.

The Royals bullpen took over for the final three innings, continuing a stretch of scoreless innings. The last run surrendered by a Royals reliever came off of Jose Mijares on May 28, a string of 11.2 scoreless from the bullpen. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland and Jonathan Broxton finished things off, with each recording at least one strikeout. Holland allowed the only baserunner, walking Kurt Suzuki to lead off the eighth.

Broxton fought back from a 3-1 count to start the ninth against Josh Reddick, but came back to strike him out looking on a slider. He overmatched Cespedes, striking him out on on three straight swings on fastballs after starting him off with a ball. Kila Ka’aihue grounded out to short to end the game.

Paulino has a 1.70 ERA after 37 innings over six starts in 2012 with a 1.14 WHIP and 39 strikeouts. He’s given up runs in just two starts since coming off the disabled list and looks every bit like an ace of this pitching staff. He threw 94 pitches tonight and could have thrown more, but Ned Yost opted for the bullpen instead of sending him out again.

Tomorrow’s game starts at 1:10 p.m. with the Royals only a game behind Detroit and could end up in third place by the end of Saturday. Brandon McCarthy should be activated tomorrow to start for Oakland and Luke Hochevar will try to keep Oakland’s offense from waking up.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

With the loss the Royals fall to 17-27 on the year, and in the hashtag and catchy slogan season, 10 games below .500 is magnified when the other teams in the division aren’t all that good either. Plus, what the heck happened to supposed to be star players on the Royals roster?

Oh well, that’s a discussion for another time. What went down tonight wasn’t shocking after a first inning debacle of a call and not one, but two, potential defensive outs were lost on botched pickoff attempts. If ever there was a definition of #royaling, that was it. Well those two plays, and Jeff Francoeur being thrown out at home with the infield pulled in.

Not a whole lot else noteworthy happened. This was the type of game you fall asleep in the second inning, wake up in the eighth inning, and you haven’t missed a thing. That is of course, unless you’re interested in watching a team that finished worse than the Royals last year (and the year before), and so far this season looks light-years ahead of Kansas City in terms of both talent and on-field philosophy.

After a 12-win, 6-loss run that started to breathe some life and hope into the fanbase, the Royals have answered by losing 6 of 9 games and haven’t looked pretty doing so.

A positive? Felipe Paulino starts Saturday. And hopefully, just hopefully, Alex Gordon has a huge game.

Bruce Chen will look to snap the Royals two-game losing streak in the series opener at Baltimore. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

When these teams met last Wednesday and Thursday at Kauffman Stadium, it was KC who was the hotter team having gone 4-1 on a roadtrip on the southside of Chicago and Arlington. Baltimore has been one of the early surprises of the season leading the AL East.

In the quick two-game series, Kansas City jumped out to the lead with the end result being Baltimore coming back late to earn the sweep. Game one went 15-innings which was highlighted in many Royals fans minds of Jonathan Broxton blowing his second save of the season and Nate Adcock surrendering a 15^th inning bomb to Adam Jones in the 4-3 Orioles win.

Game two again KC built an early lead with Humberto Quintero and Johnny Giavotella driving in the runs putting the Royals up 3-0 in the third. The O’s got two back in the next inning with Jones again hitting a homer this time of the two-run variety. Luke Hochevar who pitched well ran into trouble in the seventh inning after back-to-back singles (highlighted by Jarrod Dyson misplaying what should’ve been only a single).

J.J. Hardy who tied the game for Balitmore in game one, again came up with the big hit putting the birds in front for good. Aaron Crow who has been good in relief was unable to help Hochevar out walking Lois Esposito and Xavier Avery back-to-back loading the bases which culminated with Hardy’s hit.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 6:05 pm – Bruce Chen (3-4, 4.17) v. Jason Hammel (5-1, 3.12)
- Chen, enters this start having won his last three starts beating the Red Sox, at Rangers and Diamondbacks. He’s reached the seventh inning in each of these starts and averaging five strikeouts and 1.3 walks in these starts. Another thing helping is KC is giving Bruce run support scoring 4.6 runs compared to just an average of two runs in his first six starts.
- Hammel, Has been great so far this season for the AL East leaders starting 5-1 with two no-decisions. He’s 2-0 with a ND in his last three starts beating Boston and Washington while not figuring into the loss against the Yankees. In his last two starts he went five and 5 1/3 innings allowing 6.5 hits in his last two starts and 4.5 runs.
Saturday, 3:05 pm – Felipe Paulino (2-1, 1.42) v. Wei-Yin Chen (4-1, 3.35)
- Paulino, So far in three of his four starts in 2012 he’s not allowed a run, the game he did at Chicago he did suffer his lone loss. Felipe went seven innings last week against Baltimore but the Royals bullpen was unable to hold onto the lead. In four starts Paulino is averaging seven strikeouts which includes nine against the O’s last Wednesday and eight in the Bronx on Monday.
- Chen, Suffered his first defeat at Washington 9-3 in his last start for the rookie out of Taiwan. The six-runs he allowed were a season high and nearly a third of the 22 runs allowed this season. He’s been getting 4.6 runs of support in each start.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.61) v. TBD
- Hochevar, Sure I and Royals fans have had fun at the former number one pick expense but let’s give him credit as of late. In Luke’s last three starts he’s made it into the seventh inning and seen his ERA go from an even nine to its current 6.61 form. Also encouraging has been his strikeout numbers in the last three starts increasing with 5, 6 and 8 in those games.
- TBD, For now we’ll have to wait and see who Buck Showalter goes to if that is activating someone from the DL or calling up someone from the minors.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

It was the start of interleague play and the Royals were hosting the Cardinals.  As soon as we arrived at the stadium, I ran into an old family friend, Doug.  Doug asked me what I knew about this young rookie, Albert Pujols.  My eyes glazed over in a blank stare.  The entire time my wife and I were inTexas, I was relatively ignorant of the happenings of the baseball world.  I did go watch the Royals play the Rangers with some friends on two separate occasions.  The Royals won both games.

Doug continued, “He’s only a rookie, but I’m telling you, pay attention to him.  He’s going to be great.”  As if on cue, Pujols singled to centerfield.  In his second at-bat, Pujols singled to left and doubled to right a couple innings later.  I was immediately impressed.

The game as a whole was a lot of fun.  We formed new friendships and had a wonderful time at the stadium on a beautiful spring eve.

At the end of nine innings, the game was tied.  For multiple innings, the game continued to plod along, with more and more church members leaving after every completed frame.  Finally, in the bottom of the 13^th inning, Mike Sweeney hit a massive homerun to left-center, leading the Royals to victory.  I took it as a sign of good things to come.

Every year, the church organized a night at the K.  Sometimes we’d even go so far as to coordinate a tailgating party as well.  I was much more interested in batting practice than tailgating, as usual, and went inside the stadium early with my friend Andy.  As we were strolling around watching the pre-game practice, an usher approached us asking if we’d like to win the Seat Upgrade for that night’s game.

“How many seats are available?” we asked.  When we discovered that only two people could win, we politely turned down the offer.  Baseball was meant to be shared with friends.

There was one year when a horrible miscommunication happened.  When ordering our seats for the August game, we requested to be on the third base side so that we would be in the shade upon arrival.  Instead, we got seats in the first base side and absolutely roasted for the first four innings of the game.  Thankfully, the Royals won that hot and humid game.

Last night, the church wanted to treat me to something special as a “going-away” gift.  A large group of people met in the church parking lot and carpooled to the K.  We entered into the stadium through Gate C and were escorted to the .390 Bar & Grill.  I had never before set foot in the glass-enclosed lounge, decorated with pictures of all the Royal greats, every seat with a fantastic view of the field.  The church had arranged for a buffet of bar-be-que and chicken tenders, fries, cheesy corn, and cupcakes.  We stuffed ourselves while watching the Orioles take batting practice.

My daughter, who was only months old when we moved from Texas, is now a pre-teen and asked me to take her down to watch Felipe Paulino warm up in the bullpen.  She’s learned quickly.  While watching Paulino pound fastballs, we visited with my friend who ushers and maintains crowd-control in the left-field seats.  He told us the story of the idiot-guy who jumped into the fountains last week, and how they could never find the baseball he retrieved, which was supposed to be reclaimed by the club.  After Paulino’s warm-ups, we shouted greetings to the remainder of the boys in the bullpen and joined our friends in our seats for the evening by the left-field fountains.

The game absolutely flew by, until the eighth inning, when Baltimore cut the lead in half.  What I really want to be writing right now is how Alex Gordon’s double in the bottom of the eighth was just the run the Royals’ needed to secure a win after Broxton gave up a solo home run to Wilson Betemit in the ninth.  What I really want to write is about how Gordo is one of the many faces that are leading the Royals forward into a new era.  But, in my opinion, the ump blew the call on the play at the plate and I can’t write those words.  The game would go, of course, to extra innings.

We stayed until the 13^th inning was completed.  At that point, my youngest daughter was exhausted and needed to go home to bed.  There were tears in her eyes as she asked, “Why are we leaving?  Can’t we stay just a little longer?  But the game’s not over.”  Her mom and I knew it was time to go.  It wasn’t easy leaving the K last night.  It wasn’t easy saying good-bye.

In two weeks, we’ll be moving toSpringfield.  We have had a terrific decade here at the church and inKansas City.  There will be tears when we start heading south and a whole bunch of questions about why we’re moving and maybe we should stay just a little longer and how there’s still some game left to be played.  It is so hard to say good-bye to friends who love you like family and who go out of their way to plan an amazing evening just for you.  It is so hard to say good-bye as the “what-ifs” bounce around and the “only-ifs” respond.  It is so hard to say good-bye knowing the next text message or email might be an extra ticket to today’s game.

When all was said and done, the Royals lost the game at my going-away party, some six innings past the regulation nine, and it left a melancholy-taste deep in my soul.  But even if they had won, it wouldn’t make saying good-bye any easier.  The good news after last night’s game was not the final score, but the friends who went out of their way to share one more evening at the K with me.  So as the #OurTime season continues, maybe SungWoo Lee could teach me and my family a thing or two about being long-distance fans.

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The game that was scheduled versus the Tigers was rained out and postponed until Monday, Sept. 24, officially ruining everyone’s TV watching and Twitter fun for tonight. In doing so, the three-game series turns into a two-game set in which Royals fans can only hope Jim Leyland decides to give his ace Verlander an extra day’s rest. Sadly at this time, Verlander is still scheduled to go for Wednesday.

A positive however is the extra days rest this rainout gives to a struggling rotation, and the flexibility it gives to the team as Mendoza can head back to the bullpen in a long-relief role, in preparation of Felipe Paulino making his season debut on Saturday.

Mendoza already figured to be the odd man out of the rotation when Paulino returned from the DL, but being able to push everyone back a day allows Ned Yost to keep Bruce Chen on his regular rest for Friday’s game, and not have to scramble to find someone to start on Thursday.

Paulino’s return scheduled for Saturday couldn’t have come at a better time. The Royals pitching so far this year has struggled to the tune of a 4.58 ERA (good for fifth worst in all of baseball, an all too familiar trend), and even though Paulino isn’t known for going deep into games, anyone that can give them quality innings by limiting contact at this point is much needed.

What today’s cancellation also does is allow Jonathan Sanchez and Danny Duffy another day’s rest.

Sanchez was already pushed back a day for experiencing flu-like symptoms, so getting him another day to see if he can not only get healthy, but try and find a fix to the control issues that have plagued him so far this year, is much needed. He’s never been a control guy, but he’s never been this bad either. Sanchez will pitch Wednesday.

Duffy’s extra day couldn’t be better timed. Already having been skipped last Friday for experiencing “minor elbow tightness”, allowing Duffy to get as much non-mound throwing in as possible to work through his ailment is just what the doctor ordered.

For his start on Thursday Royals fans should watch closely because “elbow tightness” is never a phrase you want to hear in regards to one of your best pitchers.

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Felipe Paulino was placed on the DL before the season started and helped Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy stick in the big league rotation. He had a strained right forearm and is making a rehab start for Northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, according to Bob Dutton.

I’d expect that Paulino will make a start for Omaha as well before the Royals determine when to make a switch. Duffy has pitched well in two starts before some struggles in Sunday’s game, but his ERA overall is 3.63 and his average fastball velocity is rivaled only by Stephen Strasburg so far this year. Mendoza, on the other hand, has had two rough starts, walking nine in 13 innings and giving up 24 hits. He may have two more starts to convince the Royals he’s actually changed and that his 2011 wasn’t a mirage. You know my thoughts on the matter.

Lorenzo Cain early in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

The more immediate good news is that Lorenzo Cain is close to returning. After a fine running catch in Oakland, Cain strained his groin, landing on the DL. He made his first rehab appearance Sunday for Northwest Arkansas and Dutton reports that he’s tentatively set to return on Friday when the Royals will be in Minnesota.

Cain was hitting .133 through four and a half games when he hurt himself, but after a strong spring, he may be the answer to the Royals problems in the top of the order. So far, Ned Yost has used a mix of Yuniesky Betancourt, Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar and Jeff Francoeur in the top two spots in the order. Cain isn’t a traditional leadoff hitter, but his speed would play well there. He’d also be a good bat between Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer – two lefties – at the top of the order.

His return would also help out by adding offensive potential with great defense. In his absence, the Royals have played a rotation of Jarrod Dyson (who misplayed some balls in two games of the Cleveland series) and Jason Bourgeois while Mitch Maier has gotten the most work. None of the three are seen as consistent regulars, though Maier has filled that role in the past. They’re all better suited to being late inning replacements for defensive or pinch-running purposes.

Blake Wood may be ready to return soon to reinforce a bullpen that has been heavily taxed early on in 2012. His return would help since Greg Holland was placed on the DL after his awful appearance on Friday night. Joakim Soria, of course, is out for the year, while Manuel Pina and Salvador Perez both have a way to go to recover from meniscus surgeries.

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Felipe Paulino hits the DL. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals announced that Felipe Paulino would begin the year on the 15-day disabled list. The right-hander had been part of a six man battle for a five man pitching rotation.

This news comes a day after Ned Yost announced that Bruce Chen would be the opening day starter in Anaheim against the Angels. Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez  will slot in behind him and after the injury, Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy fill in the last two spots.

Paulino worked 11.2 innings in spring, allowing 10 runs and 16 hits. The Royals have the option to backdate his DL stint to Monday. The injury itself is called a “right forearm flexor pronator strain” and Paulino said he felt some tightness.

Of course, this could be an easy fix to stash a pitcher in Omaha to get some rehab starts. I’m sure there is some tightness there, but with Chen, Hochevar and Sanchez locks to make the rotation and Duffy showing some success (and Mendoza’s solid spring numbers), Paulino was looking like a pitcher headed to the bullpen for a long relief role which really doesn’t suit him, as he’s struggled in the bullpen in the past (9.15 ERA in 39.1 innings). Buying time with Paulino on the DL and in Omaha for rehab gives the Royals a chance to evaluate a few turns through the pitching staff and move forward based on how everyone is performing.

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Mendoza has made his pitch. (Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE)

As we’re all prone to do, Royals fans have made quite a bit of fuss over Luis Mendoza possibly making the Opening Day rotation. Since Bob Dutton even says Mendoza is “expected” to be the choice for the final rotation spot, joining Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen, and Danny Duffy, you can bet there’s something to it. And all of the fuss makes sense based on Mendoza’s history in the majors, where batters haven’t been kind to him.

But, through all of that, I just kept wondering this: why does it matter that much? We’re pretty certain Danny Duffy will make the team, as he’s had a solid Spring. It seems ridiculous that he would end up in Omaha at this point, even though Paulino and Mendoza are out of options. I just can’t get that worked up about Mendoza getting a spot in the rotation to start the season.

Why is that? Well, there are a few reasons. The first is simple. My expectations and hopes are based more on individual success than overall team success. I’m looking for steps forward from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Johnny Giavotella Salvador Perez Alcides Escobar. I really want to see those guys avoid any pitfalls and find even greater success. Since two of the other guys, as mentioned, are gone or injured, my expectations for a team advance have been mired a bit more, so my focus is even greater on individual achievement first, and team achievement second. If the singular players take a step forward now, the team can take a step forward in the future. Well, at least, that’s how I think about it.

Mendoza fits right into this. If he can continue what he did at the end of last season, fantastic. If not, who cares? The Royals will have given him a shot in a major league rotation. I can’t imagine that they’d let Paulino end up on waivers, so they’d keep him in the bullpen. If Mendoza falters and Paulino pitches well, you swap them. No big deal. Everyone’s happy. Doesn’t make a difference if the Royals don’t compete too tightly with the Tigers (and Indians?).

Another reason I can’t get too worked up is that even though people were raving about Paulino in early spring workouts, he continues to get hammered to the tune of 16 hits and 10 runs in 11.2 innings. Now, I understand that’s not completely fair. There have just been two games in which he’s really given up too many runs:

Vs. Seattle on 3/14/12:                              3 IP,  4 H,  4 ER,  2 BB,  1 K
Vs. Milwaukee on 3/25/12:                   2.2 IP,  6 H,  5 ER,  3 BB,  3 K

In his other two outings, he walked no batters, allowed six hits, struck out five, and allowed just one run in six innings. That’s a much different line than the one above. But I guess it comes down to a simple thought. Do you go with the guy who’s had consistent Spring Training success or with the guy who pitched well in the season last year?

This isn’t an easy question. After all, both guys have had rocky pasts in the league. Paulino has only had one season with an ERA below 6 before coming to the Royals. Mendoza has a career ERA of 7.36. I know there’s some talk about the Royals being concerned about Mendoza being a case like Philip Humber, who went to the White Sox and had a solid year in the rotation. I’m not going to deal with that issue. The main question here is whether you give the spot to the guy who’s earned it this spring or to the guy who was with the team last season.

In my mind, you have to give it to Mendoza. He’s had the better spring, whether you believe in it or not. He’s outpitched Paulino. The Royals have given him extra starts over the other guys to either prove he can stick or to prove he can’t. He’s ran with the opportunity. Has it been perfect? Of course not, but it’s been impressive nonetheless. And there’s that point where you just have to say, “All right, we gave him the opportunity and he earned it. Not much else we can do.” Besides, if you start telling guys that they can’t make the roster even when they have a great Spring Training, then what message are you sending?

Finally, I don’t have a problem with Mendoza in the rotation because there are bigger problems around the team. Like I’ve said, if Mendoza flops, it’s an easily solved problem. The issues at catcher are worse, and the problems in thinking in the front office are scarier. Trade for Humberto Quintero? Only if you’re giving up essentially no one. Send Giavotella to Omaha and then claim it’s solely because of defense? Please. I’ve tried to defend them, but the decisions made in the last week* really make me want to take back some of the things I’ve said. Essentially, Mendoza pitching in what’s already been described as the worst part of the Royals roster can’t make issues much worse. There are bigger fish to fry. Frankly, this just isn’t a huge problem.

*While I was on vacation, I might add. Checking those updates and trying to have a relaxing vacation anyway was almost impossible.

Mendoza may flop. He may be brilliant. More likely, he’ll just be a standard pitcher. No matter what happens, there’s an easy fix to that problem, if it arises, and any success may be fun to see this season. So, if the Royals make the decision to leave him in the rotation, let’s not throw a fit. Let’s root for him to succeed.

Well, at least until the Royals decide to sign him to a long-term contract. Then we’ll talk.

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Mar 16, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

Some people don’t believe there is such a thing as a “good problem,” and seeing as how the Royals had only seemed to have the bad kind until recently, many of these people might have been residents in our very own fan base. I’m here to tell you that the Royals have a good problem…several in fact. (more…)

It's going to take more than a good headshot for Aaron Crow to land a starting role in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Aaron Crow is one of many vying for a spot in the Royals rotation and Wednesday night he got a tryout. Starting against Kevin Millwood, Crow had a good first two innings but lost his control in the third and fourth innings, being replaced by Brandon Sisk in the fourth inning after a leadoff single by Ichiro Suzuki and a walk to Justin Smoak. Crow threw 48 pitches, half for strikes. Both Suzuki and Smoak scored after Crow left the game.

Jonathan Broxton worked a strong inning after Sisk, throwing his fastball in the mid-90s and hit 96 on his first of two strikeouts. He also induced a ground out from Ichiro where he barely beat him to the bag on a soft grounder to first.

Felipe Paulino came in trying to follow up on a strong spring debut but got hit hard and didn’t locate his pitches at all. He gave up four runs and benefited from an out on the base paths when Stefen Romero tried to stretch a double into a triple. He calmed down in the second inning and had an easy third inning of work, but he’s still got work to do to cement his spot  in the rotation. Paulino was grooving his fastball in at 94-96 mph and hit 97 on a few.

The Royals didn’t make a lot of noise with the bats as they only managed five hits, though two hard hit balls were ruled errors. The only two Kansas City runs came in the seventh inning after a Jeff Francoeur bloop double down the right field line and  a shot by Irving Falu into right. Falu advanced to second on a chopper by Jarrod Dyson and scored on a Max Ramirez single up the middle.

As spring training games go, it was an uneventful night. Wil Myers struck out twice and didn’t look comfortable at the plate, but made two good plays in right field, first starting a relay to nail Romero at third, then snagging a tailing line drive by Vinnie Catricala.

If I’m to take anything away from this game it’s that Crow seemed to tire after three innings and didn’t do a lot to work himself out of trouble in the fourth. While he still has an outside chance at some starting work, he’s best suited for the bullpen where he can run through two innings with his fastball and slider. Once Paulino settled in, he didn’t get hit that hard, but he’d been hit enough in the sixth to put the team behind it. Jonathan Broxton looked strong and looked to trust his stuff and the Mariners couldn’t touch it.

Mike Moustakas missed his second game after getting hit in the knee against the Giants. He’s a good bet to get back in there tomorrow.

The Royals will face the Los Angeles Dodgers tomorrow afternoon at 3:05 CST.

Scorecard for 3/14/12:

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Kansas City Royals pitcher Luis Mendoza. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

The top three rotation spots are already solidified.  Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen, and Luke Hochevar will  lead the staff as the top three starters.  That leaves the Royals to fill two more spots as we head into April, with Opening Day looming.  Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino were who I initially thought would fill out the latter part of the rotation.  However, I’m pleasantly surprised with the spring that Luis Mendoza has put together so far, and he seems to have firmly tossed his name in the race.  It would be great if he continued to perform and make this a very difficult decision for Manager Ned Yost but we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez have been poor to start the spring, but that doesn’t mean we should be panicking.  Chen is currently sporting a 9.64 ERA and has given up nine hits and five earned runs in only 4.2 innings of work.  It’s early in the spring and because he is a veteran and knows how to pick himself up, I’m confident he will still be a reliable starter for the Royals this season.  Sanchez hasn’t been aided with much defensive help but has still given up three earned runs in one inning of work.  On the plus side, he did not give up a walk in that inning but was still roughed up for four hits.  I’m not going to put too much stock in their performances thus far but I will be expecting some noticeable progression from the two, as we close out March.

Luke Hochevar has continued with his improvements from the last half of the season last year into this spring and had a good outing in his first spring start.  Over five innings he has allowed only two runs while striking out three.  I think it’s finally the year where Hochevar stamps his name as a competent top of the rotation starter.  I do not think he will ever be an Ace or a true number one, but I believe he can be a very good two or three for a contending team.

Danny Duffy really impressed in his first time out this spring.  He recorded five straight strike outs and did not allow a single base runner in his two innings so far.  I would love for Duffy to be a dominant backend guy the Royals can count on this year.  I still believe he is going to have his bumps in the road as the season advances, but I’m confident he will earn a spot out of Spring Training, especially if he continues to show flashes of brilliance like we saw only a few days ago.

That leaves one more rotation spot up for grabs, and I think Felipe Paulino has the slight edge over Luis Mendoza at this point.  While Mendoza has impressed, in my opinion, this spot is Paulino’s to lose.  Mendoza has started two games and went a combined six innings giving up zero runs and striking out four while only walking one.  If he keeps this up, it will be hard to deny him a rotation spot but if that doesn’t happen he could still be a long reliever out of the gate for this team.  Paulino, in his one start hasn’t given up a run in his two innings, but did allow three hits and only struck out one batter.  He still has done nothing to lose the spot, and while it’s very early, I expect him to be the final starter, assuming Duffy takes the 4th spot.

It certainly will be an entertaining end to the spring as we will find out who will fill out the last two rotation spots.  I hope Mendoza continues to pitch the way he has and maybe force the Royals hand to put him on the Opening Day 25 man roster.  It’s still a viable option that he is one of the first guys looked at for a spot start, or something along those lines, at some point throughout the season.  Either way, we have been blessed with some good outings by most of the guys so far, and there’s still time for Chen and Sanchez to start pitching like we would expect them to, in time for Opening Day.

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July 24, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher

Is everyone having a good time riding the optimism train? Good, now let me be the one to crash it. Just kidding; I like optimism. It allows fans of perennial losers a way to continually reconnect with the team that repeatedly breaks their hearts.

Obviously, optimism is like smack to Royals fans right now. We just can’t get enough of it, and it will probably claim more than a few victims if those pie-in-the sky expectations aren’t met. Oh well, O-T-S-S (Only the Strong Survive).

I was thinking yesterday about regression, since it’s one of the things that may sneak up and ruin the current state of optimism. Bob Dutton wrote a piece about Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur and the likelihood that they regress. In a tremendous shock, the hitting coach Kevin Seitzer thinks they won’t—or at least that’s what he told Dutton.

There is one candidate who few are mentioning as a regression candidate who I believe may regress in a big way. In fact, many are talking about him as a breakout candidate, a potential driving force behind the Royals rotation: Felipe Paulino.

It’s interesting to me that few are mentioning him as a regression candidate. I say few because I did read one piece from John J. Parent at Call to the Pen that mentions the possibility of Paulino, who turned 28 in October, regressing. But many, many, many more are on the “Paulino takes a step forward” bandwagon including but not limited to Rany Jazayerli and Michael Engel. Me? I move between the two, but for this piece I want to talk about why he might fail and why no one is seeing it.

August 8, 2011; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher

Paulino is a sabrmetricians pitcher. Why? Because he strikes people out, he has swing and miss stuff, and seemingly the only knock on him is when hitters put the ball in play against him, it drops for a hit more than one would expect. Sabermetricians call this “bad luck.” For the last two seasons Paulino has had an FIP and xFIP lower than his ERA—in 2011 much lower. Sabermatricians love these pitchers because other people undervalue them, and perhaps Paulino is undervalued.*

*I would like to note that I am neither a sabermetrician (the math’s too hard) nor an enemy of sabermetics. I like sabrmetrics and think it is an extremely effective means of evaluation in many cases … but not all.

But sometimes, and this is not a stance in opposition of sabermetrics or statistics in general, there are elements that we as observers cannot or do not understand based on our perspective. Sometimes we’re too deep into the trees to see the forest. Sometimes we can see the forest but no trees. Sometimes we’re at a beach where there are no trees.

To me, Paulino seems to be a candidate who may defy the principle sabrmetrics is really built on—inductive reasoning.* Sabermetricians use slices of a pitchers performance that exist entirely within his control (strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed) and attempt to use those numbers to project overall performance. I’ve often written articles that champion a player as undervalued and ready to breakout because I saw something in his peripheral numbers that I thought gave hope to his overall performance. And often times, it works … but not always (For our purposes, I’ll use ERA for overall performance of pitchers because to me the overall objective of a pitcher is to not give up runs).

*For all the logicians reading, if I’ve misused this phrase I apologize, but it seemed to fit my point at the time.

Paulino is an example of how we may be seeing trees and missing forests. Here are some interesting facts. 1) Paulino has never had an ERA under 4 in the major leagues. 2) Before last season, he had never had an ERA under 5.11. And most importantly 3) His career ERA is 5.28 while his career FIP is 4.18. Of course, some could say that he’s moving toward his career FIP now that he has a good defense behind him. His ERA with the Royals was 4.11 so maybe he has figured something out and will begin to meet the potential many stat hounds see in him on a consistent basis. But he never has before.

And that’s the crux of why I’m uncertain about Paulino and why I see him as a candidate for regression. Throughout the entirety of his career, he’s never been a consistent performer. Yes, he strikes guys out. But if he’s going to strike out eight hitters a game and give up five runs doing it, I’d rather he not be pitching. Sometimes, and I know it’s hard to read, there are things that get lost in the translation between the small slices of stats and the overall performance. Sometimes, pitchers give up runs for reasons we can’t fully predict or understand, not immediately anyway. Sometimes, pitchers are successful for reasons we can’t fully understand. Paulino may be that guy who should have always been consistently good but never was. I feel like that might be the case looking at his overall track record of mediocrity.

There have been a few guys, even in the era of sabermetrics, who for some reason, never fulfilled their potential, never lived up to the hype. Why? Because they had something about them or their game that eluded analysts, statistical or otherwise. When hitters put balls in play against Paulino, the get hits at a high rate. Many statisticians call this “luck,” but some pitchers have consistently high BABIPs. You can’t call it “luck” if it happens all the time. This could be the thing about Paulino’s game that doesn’t match the dogma so we don’t understand it. Or maybe it’s something else.

OR he may breakout and help the Royals win the World Series. This is the scenario I’m hoping for. I’m just open to the possibility that it may not occur. I know a lot of people are driving the Paulino bandwagon because so many have claimed to like him for so long (Right, just like you liked that band before everyone else. I got it). But don’t be surprised if he takes a step backward this season.

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Felipe Paulino helped his cause on Thursday. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Felipe Paulino started the game, his first appearance of the spring, and worked two good innings as he works to remain in the starting rotation. He reaped the benefits of inducing double plays in both innings and also coaxed another ground out while striking out one. Paulino should be safe when it comes down to deciding the rotation (barring injury), but having him put up a couple of good innings is good for his cause and, of course, good for the Royals.

Aaron Crow also saw his first action and was even better, striking out two and giving up just one walk in his two innings. He’s more of a longshot to crack the starting five and may just be better in the bullpen anyway, but the Royals are looking at him in case they’re pressed to use him in a larger role.

Jose Mijares, Tommy Hottovy, Louis Coleman, Brandon Sisk and Jeremy Jeffress each worked an inning and all but Hottovy recorded a strikeout. Altogether, the Royals pitchers handled the Rockies.

A few players continued hot streaks in early spring action. Lorenzo Cain had two hits and seems to be putting the ball in play every time up. That bodes well for him, as many have been concerned about his offensive ability as he tries to replace – somehow – a 200 hit season from Melky Cabrera. It’s still early and he could always slump the last three weeks of spring, but he’s been one of the more impressive players in the young Cactus League season.

Max Ramirez continued to rake, hitting his third spring homer and getting his seventh RBI. It’s still not likely that he’ll really push Brayan Pena for the backup job, but if he keeps hitting, the Royals won’t have a choice. Pena is out of options though so he’s got nowhere to go, and should be a decent enough backup for Salvador Perez.

As much as it pains me to say it, Yuniesky Betancourt homered and made some plays at second base. It seems my pleas for Irving Falu to be the utility player will go unanswered.

Alex Gordon also ripped a double to open the game.

The Royals made a number of outs on the basepaths, and have been getting thrown out in other games as well. Ned Yost made a point to be aggressive on the basepaths last year so that’s probably the plan this year too. My hunch is that the Royals are seeing what they can and can’t get away with now so it gives them an idea of what they should be aware of once the season starts. Last year’s team made a lot of things happen by being aggressive but they also ran themselves out of innings. That’s a tough balance to hit, but that’s also what spring training is for – to find it out.

The Royals will play the Reds tomorrow at 2:05 p.m. CST. Danny Duffy will make his first spring appearance.

I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

Sep 10, 2011; Seattle, WA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Felipe Paulino (59) pitches to the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Kansas City defeated Seattle 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

One of the most talked about topics by Royals fans this off season has been whether or not the team will acquire another starter to bolster their staff.  It seems fairly certain the Royals won’t be making any additonal moves regarding starting pitching, at this point.  That would leave us with Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Bruce Chen as anchors to the staff and Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, Everett Teaford, and Aaron Crow as possible candidates to be 4th and 5th starters.  It seems more likely Duffy and Paulino will end up filling out the bottom of the rotation, but we’ll have to see what happens over the next several weeks.  Unless he falls apart in spring training, Paulino seems to be a given to make the rotation.  Felipe Paulino will be one of my most interesting watches this year, and I think he could very well be the best and most important starter for the Royals.

I’m aware of his 10-31 career record, and that alone could make my prediction seem preposterous.  And After hearing his record, some of you may think I’m one drink away from claiming that Mark Redman was deserving of his 2006 All-Star nod.  However, I’m not going to hold Paulino’s career record hostage as there is more to a pitcher than his W-L record.  I’m also not going to declare him a world beater, but I am saying the Royals have a guy, who is capable of reaching 10-12 wins as their 4th starter.  General Manager Dayton Moore did a great job of buying low on Paulino, as he was acquired last May, for cash considerations, from Colorado.  In 2012, the team will only be paying him $1.9 million dollars.

A brief look at Paulino’s major league career would indicate he hasn’t seen much success with either the Astros or the Rockies.  He was 6-21 in three seasons with the Astros, but still had a tremendous K/9 of 8.1.  In his time with Colorado in 2011, he posted a 0-4 record with a 7.36 ERA.  However, in his time with the Royals last year, he posted a 4.11 ERA and fanned 119 batters in 124.2 innings pitched.  He was also able to limit his walks, or at least bring them down near his career average of 3.8 BB/9.  One thing I really like about Paulino is the fact he is able to pitch deep into games and help eat some innings in order to preserve the bullpen.  In Kansas City, Paulino had his best stint yet as a major leaguer, and, according to fangraphs.com, he also tied with Alexi Ogando for the fastest fastball velocity at 95.1 mph, for all major league pitchers with 120 innings pitched.  That puts him ahead of guys like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Felix Hernandez.

There are many things that could have helped Paulino transition over to the American League and put together a decent year in 2011. For instance, changing scenery and finally switching to a pitcher-friendly home park would certainly help the majority of pitchers out there.  Many careers don’t seem to flourish out of Coors Field, unless your name is Ubaldo Jimenez or Jorge de la Rosa.  At 28 years old he is entering his prime and certainly capable of stringing together many quality starts throughout the season.  One thing is certain though, he will have to continue to make an adjustment and do a better job of utilizing his fastball on the corners of the plate.  We have seen him dominate before but now I, and other Royals fans, would like him to be consistent in his outings.  If the Royals are to contend in the AL Central, Paulino will be an integral part of their season.  I’ll leave you all with this information.  In his last four starts in 2011, Paulino notched 2 wins with a 3.75 ERA and tallied 31 strikeouts to only 7 walks.  Now wouldn’t that be a pleasant surprise out of your 4th starter, if he carried those numbers into 2012?

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Newcomer Jonathan Sanchez could be a force in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-US PRESSWIRE

I know you want to read some more about the Royals starting rotation heading into 2012. Most fans think the offense will be the key strength of the team, that the defense will be much better than most years and that the bullpen will be strong as well.

It’s just that missing piece, the starting rotation.

No, the Royals have no ace, and with the market settled (except for Roy Oswalt, who can’t seem to decide where he wants to play, if at all), they won’t have one. Their rotation is a mix of third and fourth starters – which isn’t a bad thing, provided you have someone who could be a number one or two guy. At best, the rotation could be average if the pattern holds.

There is, however, one area that may lend the Royals some room to grow.

Since 2000, the Royals have finished below the league’s average strikeout rate in every season except 2008 and 2009.

For many of those years, Zack Greinke was the main reason the Royals were close or surpassing the league average.

Over that twelve year span, 37 of the 48 teams making the playoffs had a higher staff strikeout rate than the league average. It’s not so simple to say that a lot of strikeouts make teams better or that if your team has a high strikeout rate you stand a better chance to make the playoffs. Plenty of teams have missed the playoffs while surpassing the league average, but it’s notable that only one team has won the American League pennant while finishing below average: the Tigers in 2006.

So strikeouts probably help.

The key members of the Royals bullpen are solid strikeout sources. Blake Wood had the lowest K/9 of the top five relievers in innings pitched last season, and he still struck out eight per nine innings. Greg Holland, who fell short of cracking the top five in innings pitched, punched out better than 11 batters per nine and Kelvin Herrera, who should see a lot of time in the majors,  has a career 8.7 K/9 in the minor leagues.

So if the Royals are to make improvements in their staff’s strikeout potential, it’s going to fall to the starters.

Going into 2012, Felipe Paulino is probably going to keep his rotation spot (though things can change in spring training) and since he led the team in K/9 from starters with 8.6. In the offseason, the Royals swapped out Jeff Francis (4.5 K/9) for Jonathan Sanchez (9.1 K/9 in 2011 and 9.4 K/9 lifetime). Luke Hochevar also seemed to rediscover his slider in the second half of the year and from July to the end of the year, increased his K/9 from 4.6 K/9 to 7.7 K/9. Since his slider has been one of the better pitches, statistically, in baseball, he uses it often in two strike counts. If he’s going to ever have an out pitch, that’s the one.

Then there’s Danny Duffy, who, as a rookie, struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings. Even if he doesn’t improve that rate, he’ll at least get more innings, which means the rest of the league is exposed to his strikeout abilities more often.

While there’s no true correlation between strikeouts and winning, the connection makes some sense. A pitcher who can strike out batters will be missing bats. They’re probably harder to get a good look at (at least a lot of the time) and if the ball is never put in play, the batter’s rarely going to get on base. If a strikeout pitcher gets going, they can dominate a whole game.

The hope, then, is that Paulino can continue to strike batters out and build on success from 2011*. Sanchez will have the strikeouts there, but walks have always been an issue. He’s going to be streaky as his control comes and goes, but he should still punch out plenty of batters. It falls on Duffy and Hochevar to maintain their strikeout numbers from late last year. That should lead the Royals to have a better than average strikeout rate, which, combined with the bullpen, the solid offense and the better defense, could give them an opportunity to exceed expectations.

*Hat tip to Jeff Parker who unearthed this article comparing Paulino with Edwin Jackson.

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Lorenzo Cain had some success with the Brewers in 2010. Let's hope he provides similar results with the Royals. Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Like so many of you, I’m bouncing off the walls with anticipation for the upcoming season. I keep checking the date, as if pitchers and catchers reporting will be enough to quench my thirst for baseball. It won’t be. But it’s the methadone for baseball addicts, and I need something to curb this craving. I feel like Tyrone Biggums (for those of you who watched Chappelle’s Show).

Partially, I’m excited about the Royals’ chance at success this season, which, as many have noted, is a little higher than usual. But I’m also excited to see the many uncertain storylines play out.

With that in mind, I give you the top five storylines I will be watching closely during Spring Training.*

*There are many, many more than five, but I have to set some limits or we will be here all day. Also, these are not in any particular order.

1)   Lorenzo Cain in center field

Fellow KoK writer Alan Barrington and I had a short back and forth the other day on Twitter in which we disagreed with the criticism by some that Cain is overrated. The crux of our argument is that one must first be rated to be overrated, and no one outside of Kansas City, and maybe Milwaukee, knows who Cain is. If you asked someone from New York who will start in center field for the Royals they would probably answer, What position does Eric Hosmer play again? Go Yanks! I gotta go to the free clinic real quick somethin’s burnin again.

This is part of the reason I’m interested in seeing Cain. He isn’t such a known quantity. He has potential; he hit .306/.348/.415 in 158 PA with the Brewers in 2010 and really mashed in AAA last year (.312/.380/.497). At the plate, Cain needs to be a patient hitter with line drive power and good speed. He strikes out quite a bit, but it’s not debilitating.

It’s a very safe bet that Cain will be much better in the field than Melky Cabrera. Cain has plenty of speed to cover the big outfield at Kauffman and is still making strides as a center fielder. Some say, he has Gold Glove potential as a fielder, and that means he doesn’t have to hit .330 to be effective.

I’ll be interested to see if he really has the type of defensive impact people say he can. If he has that and finds a way to be a patient, semi-productive hitter, the Royals have a great commodity in center field. If he doesn’t, they may be scrambling to find a way to stop the bleeding in center. Did the Giants call no takesies-backsies?

2)   Are you sure you’re Mike Montgomery?

Last year in Spring Training, Montgomery came out firing bee-bees. People started wondering if he would break camp with the team, and rumors swirled that he took it hard when he didn’t. Of course, that decision looked justified after a very tough year in AAA, during which Montgomery’s command abandoned him like good taste abandoned VH1’s programing director.

Still, those who watched him go through last season speculate that he may be a better pitcher for it. He’s got dynamite stuff, and is still young at 22.

Many expect to see Montgomery in the majors this season, though after his fantastic spring last year, people were saying the same thing. If his command is back, and I mean for good, he’ll get his call fairly early in the year. And then, who knows? He’s the type of pitcher who could be called up and instantly become the team’s most effective starter. He and Luke Hochevar are the keys to this pitching staff.

Johnny Giavotella has to find a way to play an average second base if he wants to have a positive impact for KC. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

3)   Johnny Giavotella at second base

I really like Giavotella, or maybe I just dislike Chris Getz so much it makes me like Giavotalla that much more. Either way, I really want Giavotella to break out this year, and I have a feeling he will. Bill James is thinking along the same lines. He predicts a solid year from Giavotella, .295/.342/.419, at the plate. That should be right around where he is all the time.

Giavotella has to be solid with the bat because he struggles with the glove. So, while I’ll be paying attention to his progress at the plate, I’m really interested to see his progress in the field. Most speculate that he will never be a decent fielder because his lack of athleticism hurts his range. While that may be, his lack of athleticism shouldn’t prevent him from making every play within his range. In Spring Training, Giavotella needs to be worked with to make every routine play, always. I don’t mind if he doesn’t have Alcides Escobar’s range, but he needs to make all the plays he can get to.

During these exhibitions, I’ll be looking to see if Giavotella can be what we expect at the plate and take a step forward with the glove. If he can, the Royals don’t even need to think the name Getz.

4)   Who’s afraid of Felipe Paulino?

Honestly, I think the answer is … the Royals. Why? Because Paulino is a wild card, one of those guys who should be pretty good but really isn’t, but people keep giving him chances because he should be good, but he really isn’t, and then he teases people with a stretch that makes them think he’s pretty good, but he really isn’t. My point is, he really isn’t that good.

Or is he?

I can’t tell, and anyone who thinks they can is delusional. Sure, Paulino had a decent stretch last season with the Royals. And yet, he finished the year with an unspectacular 4.46 ERA. He had good strikeout numbers, but his walk rate was pretty high and hitters had a .341 BABIP on him (That’s not luck either. That’s opposing hitters hitting flat fastballs really hard).

I’ll watch Paulino to see when/if he falls. Until he arrived in Kansas City, he never established himself as a consistent performer. Why should we expect him to be one here? And yet, people keep talking about how Paulino should be a lock for the rotation and how he’s so great. When will this illusion end? Will it end? I have to think it’s going to end at some point, and if Paulino struggles in Spring Training and Aaron Crow or Montgomery tear it up, will the team be willing to shift Paulino to a new role? Should they? I have questions but few answers.

5)   Wil Myers against semi-major league pitching

We know Myers can rake at the minor league level, but I want a taste of what he might look like in the majors. Granted, he has more learning to do and will probably start the year in AA, barring a dynamite spring, which might earn him a ticket to Omaha. I’ve only seen Myers play once, and Montgomery struck him out in the Royals Futures Game.

It’s not too hard to imagine Myers hitting well in Spring Training. I know the Royals faithful would be tickled three shades of blue to see him mash in Surprise, and he’s certainly swinging a hot bat going into it. He hit .360/.481/.674 in the Arizona Fall League after a somewhat disappointing season last year.

With Myers in the outfield next to Cain and Alex Gordon, the final piece of the position-player puzzle is in place. This spring, we get to glimpse what we believe will be the Royals lineup that pushes them back into relevance.

Storylines that just missed the list: “Hochevar’s Two-faced ways” and “A Starling is born.”

Now, I need to go find all my baseball movies and watch them before the season starts. First up, The Sandlot.

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Are the Royals Playoff hopes pinned on Mike Montgomery? (USA Today)

Everybody knows that championships are built on strong pitching and defense, right?  If you can’t hold the other team down, it doesn’t matter how many runs you score – you won’t win.  Would it surprise you to learn that the two teams with the most runs allowed in Royals history also had two of the top three worst Won/Lost records?  Probably not.

In 2006, the Royals allowed their opponents to score a total of 971 runs (that’s 5.99 per game folks) in a 100 loss season which is tied for their 3^rd worst record of all time.  One year prior in 2005 the Royals allowed 935 runs, good for a 106 loss season, their worst one year performance ever.  Ugh. The boys in blue had a pretty good offensive season last year and still scored only 730 runs, or 4.5 per game – proof that no matter how formidable your offense, you absolutely must shut down the other team defensively or you won’t be planning anything more than a fishing trip in October. (more…)

That leaves Alex Gordon, who many hope will receive a contract extension, as the only player who doesn’t have a deal for 2012. (Though either by extension or an arbiter’s ruling, he’ll have a contract in place at some point before spring.)

Sanchez, acquired for Melky Cabrera in the offseason, will make $5.6 million next year, his last year of arbitration. Hochevar’s deal will pay him $3.51 million after a strong second half of 2011. Paulino, who was picked up off the scrap heap last year and led all Royals starters with 8.6 K/9, gets $1.9 million and Maier will make $865,000.

The lack of an agreement with Gordon doesn’t signal that he’ll receive a contract extension, but it’s a strong hint that it could be in the works. Last year, Billy Butler was without an agreement after the deadline. Days later, the Royals announced his extension. Gordon figures to be able to cash in on a season in which he was in the top ten in many offensive categories, led the majors in outfield assists and won a Gold Glove. Historically (or at least in the last decade), outfielders around Gordon’s age and experience have gotten contract extensions of 4-5 years at an annual average salary of around $8 million a season.

If an extension isn’t announced, the Royals will go to an arbitration hearing where a judge will rule on the figures that the Royals and Gordon’s side exchange for his salary. According to Jon Heyman, the Royals and Gordon are $1.3 million apart, with Gordon requesting $5.4 million and the Royals offering $4.15 million. Arbitration hearings will take place between February 1 and February 21. Gordon made $1.4 million in 2011.

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There’s been a lot of focus on starting pitching improvements for the Royals going into 2012, but the team is seemingly staying pat for the offseason. I haven’t seen any rumors involving any free agent or trade targets lately, so we may well be where the front office wants to start the season. Of course, given that the team tends to make moves without much warning, an acquisition could happen at any point. Still, I feel like we’re at our stopping point.

That being said, I wanted to take a look at how this rotation stacks up to the one we started 2011 with and take some glances at where we could find ourselves following the season.

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At first glance a right hander going into his age-34 season, coming off an injury plagued 139 inning campaign, would be a cause for concern for teams in search of much needed (or just wanted) rotation help. Those injuries coupled with the always possible “will he or won’t he?” questions that surround Oswalt retiring, make him an almost surefire option for a competitive veteran-team overpay, or a return to the state of Texas where Midas Nolan Ryan can work his magic and will him to a Cy Young type season. In what would be a normal offseason in Kansas City, those would be the storylines

Not this season however. (more…)

It’s just the way life works. It’s the same with religion or politics or science or whatever you want. There are always certain folks that either can’t wrap their minds around a new concept or don’t want to accept that what they’ve believed all this time has been wrong. So, they reject the new information.

I’m not one to tell people what to think. Or, at least I try not to do so. Instead, I want to talk about how to discuss the current Royals with these folks. How do you get across the improvements the team is making and the abilities of some of the players on the field without using newer stats? Well, I gave it a shot…

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When the Royals acquired Felipe Paulino from the Rockies for cash way back in May, my response was this: meh. I didn’t really know much about him and wasn’t too impressed by what I saw statistically. For me, I didn’t see a reason to be upset or excited because, well, he was just another stripped cog in a busted gear system. Of course, he then had to prove me wrong.

After Paulino found himself with a bloated 7.36 ERA as a late-innings reliever after 18 games in 2011, it was fair for the Rockies to designate him for assignment. Perhaps trading Clint Barmes for Paulino was a bad idea for the Rockies, as their second basemen have subsequently been, well, Chris Getz or worse. But their heart was in the right place, as Paulino came to the Royals and has started 14 games, relieved in one, and has arguably been the best starter on the staff.

How is he pitching to accomplish this and what could he mean for the Royals down the line? Well, that’s what I wanted to know.

(more…)

Kansas City struck first, turning three singles by Scott Podsednik, David DeJesus and Billy Butler into the first run of the game. The Astros countered with a one out RBI double by Pedro Feliz that scored Hunter Pence.
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