Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.

Dayton Moore, apparently just standing around, not signing Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

In a way, I’m surprised that there hasn’t been more said about this, but Dayton Moore made a statement to Bob Dutton about the current starting pitching market.

Moore was forthright in admitting that he may have misjudged the free agent market early on. As he told Dutton:

“I guess if we had known all along that Edwin Jackson or Oswalt were going to take one-year deals maybe we would have done things a little differently or thought things through a little differently. But I don’t think so.”

The reason behind Moore’s skepticism is a desire to keep the path open for the young pitchers in the system to be called up when they’re ready. Danny Duffy is already up and the hope is that Mike Montgomery puts it together in spring or early on in Omaha and earns his promotion as well.

Through it all, Moore has stuck to his guns.

The question has come up though – why didn’t Moore sign Roy Oswalt? Why not Edwin Jackson? Jackson only signed a one year deal with Washington and Oswalt’s rumored deal (when he finally settles on a team) shouldn’t be any bigger than one year and seven million dollars. Outrage! What is this guy doing? Is he openly sabotaging the team’s chances?

It’s clear that the Royals need outside help or vast improvement from the current crew. They traded for Jonathan Sanchez on the hopes that he returns to his 2010 form when he struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings and held batters under seven base hits per nine. At the end of November, they worked out a deal to keep Bruce Chen after a pair of solid seasons in the Royals rotation. Moore cited Chen’s consistency as a reason to hustle to get a deal done.

Now, he’s being ripped for the move because “he should have just signed Oswalt or Jackson”.

Let’s review. The Royals signed Chen at the end of November, coming to the agreement on November 23.

At that time, C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle had yet to sign and were outside of the Royals price range. Oswalt was said to be waiting for those two pitchers to come off the market, thus lowering the number of impact starters out there and hopefully adding value. This was two weeks after the Royals had signed Chen. Since, yes, Oswalt has lowered his demands and went from being open to a one-year deal  (though not until a month after the Royals and Chen agreed to their deal). Now it’s understood by most reporters that all he’ll get is a one year deal, but he’s being patient and picky.

"Yeah, just one year, but I don't know where yet." Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Part of the huffing and puffing suggests that the Royals hadn’t even expressed any interest. When a former Cy Young candidate and a pitcher with solid control and good strikeout numbers through the years is on the market, a team that needs a big starter for a potential shot at contention had better go after the guy. A common question out there (by some, not all) is “why didn’t the Royals go after Oswalt?”

Let’s rewind ourselves to November 11th. On that date, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that the Royals were meeting with Bob Garber in Milwaukee.

So what?

Bob Garber is the agent to one Roy Oswalt.

In other words, two weeks before signing Bruce Chen, the Royals inquired about Oswalt. Now, I don’t know the nature or breadth of those discussions. As Levi Payton suggests, it may have just been due diligence, just on the off chance that Oswalt was ready to go to a smaller market team with a lot of energy and a lot of hope.

At that time, as noted above, Oswalt was waiting out the big money southpaws so maybe the Royals came away with the impression that they’d have to overpay to secure his services. Maybe Oswalt wasn’t ready to sign at all with anybody. Maybe he flatly told the Royals “no”. We don’t know because neither side is telling us, but at that point the Royals shifted to going after Chen. It’s not an outrageous guess that they may have went after Oswalt, were rebuffed and went to their secondary plan.

But wait, why not Edwin Jackson? Why not give him a one year deal before the Chen agreement?

Edwin Jackson cashed in and hopes to next year as well. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

For one, at the time (late November) even the Yankees thought Jackson’s price was too high according to reporting by Jon Heyman. Some figures in early January had Jackson seeking a five year deal for $12 to $15 million a season. It wasn’t until recently that Jackson was reported to be open to a one-year deal, even spurning three year offers from the Orioles and Pirates to sign in Washington. Those deals were said to be around $10 million a season over three years. Washington will pay him $11 million. My hunch is that Jackson saw Washington as a great fit for a) the money b) the goal of a one year deal (which allows him to re-enter the market next year) and c) a chance to fit in with a sleeper contender. Pitching alongside Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman is probably more attractive than being mixed in with Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez.

The sense I’m getting from some Royals fans on Twitter and Facebook is that the Royals sat on their hands entirely*. However, given the market at the time of the Chen agreement, there’s no indication that the Royals would have been able to sign either Oswalt or Jackson, and waiting may have left them out of the Chen sweepstakes too.

*Then there’s the group that would have complained if the Royals could have signed Oswalt, citing his back and age while bemoaning the fact that he was blocking Montgomery. Moore can’t win no matter what he does, sometimes.

Then there’s the evaluation that 2012 might not quite be the year for the Royals. A lot of things would have to fall right for a one-year deal (if one could have been reached at the time) to impact the team enough to push them past Detroit (who, it should be said, won the division by 15 games in 2011). It’s arguable if any pitcher can make up that big of a difference when other factors are similar. The Tigers have a good set of hitters, a good bullpen and strong starters.

Even if there’s no regression from Alex Gordon or Jeff Francoeur or Eric Hosmer (dread that sophomore slump), is it going to be enough? And could one pitcher – like a 34-year-old with back issues or a 29-year-old who’s bounced around the league his entire career – be enough to overtake the Tigers? Unlikely, though it would improve the odds, and I’d have been in favor of a move.

Add it up and it’s easy to see how Moore’s decision-making led him to pursue Chen and leave Oswalt and Jackson for the rest of the league. At the time, the investment was outside of the Royals range and the pitchers’ availability or willingness to come to Kansas City is questionable as well. Dayton Moore can’t sign a player for the Royals if they don’t want to be a Royal. That leaves him in the position to where he has to make the best move he can at the time under the conditions.

The Royals missed out on Edwin Jackson. The Royals are likely to miss out on Roy Oswalt. Or, more likely, they never had a shot, so did they really “miss out”?

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The Royals hope to celebrate often in 2012. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Royals fans are infatuated with the 2012 incarnation of their favorite team, and rightfully so. Simply looking at the roster full of top young prospects makes me want to re-enact a patented Royals game-winning mosh pit from last year*.

*I love that walk-0ff celebration photo. The first thing I noticed about this photo to the right was Joakim Soria soaring approximately eight feet off the ground like a frog jumping lily pads. But then I noticed something even better: Eric Hosmer in the middle of the pile, being swarmed like a superhero that requires ten mere mortals to subdue.

But we already know what Royals Nation thinks about this team. Their (my) eager anticipation is palpable. We see the Process taking shaped and fully expect the Royals spend a healthy portion of the summer in contention.

However, there are better sources for unbiased prognostication than a group of unrepentant homers. In fact, there is even a “best” source. Vegas.

The sports books of Las Vegas have the most to lose from their prognostications, which means that they’ve undoubtedly hired the best in the world to handle the job. The Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd published some 2012 lines on the Ball Star blog this week, and correctly pointed out that the Royals are still considered long-shots to win in 2012.

But my curiosity immediately led me to wonder what those odds meant, especially in terms of wins and losses. So I went to sportsbook.com and decided to break down the odds on the three Royals-related future propositions.

1. Royals 30/1 odds to win the World Series

The Royals are given 30 to 1 odds to win the World Series in 2012, which even in my estimation seems a bit optimistic. They are lumped with five other teams (Marlins, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, and Brewers) with the 13th best odds. Those preceding five teams combined to post a 401-407 record last season, good for a .496 winning percentage or (roughly) an average finish of 80-82.

Of course a lot has changed since way back in 2011. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, the Nationals acquired Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson (and Rick Ankiel! and Mark Teahen!), The Marlins picked up Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, the Dodgers are all set to remove the suffocating albatross that was Frank McCourt from their around necks, and the Cubs, well, the Cubs re-signed Kerry Wood.

If anything, overall, it looks like the group has gotten a bit better. The Royals sit with relatively impressive company.

The 30/1 odds also place the Royals somewhere between the 13th and 18th best teams in baseball. In 2011, the 13th best team was the Los Angeles Dodgers, who finished with an 82-79 record. The 18th best teams were the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds, who both finished with 79-83 records.

Sure I’m only looking at one sports book, but I’ll gladly cling to the narrative that Vegas expects the Royals to be around a .500 team next season. In fact I intend to take that expectation as gospel.

2. Royals 15/1 to Win the American League Pennant

All five teams that the Royals share World Series odds with are in the National League. But they will really be judged by their contemporaries in the American League.

As you can see, the Royals are considered 15 to 1 odds to win the AL. That figure puts the Royals comfortably between the Tampa Bay Rays (15/2) and the Toronto Blue Jays (20/1) among American League hopefuls, and positions them as considerable favorites over fellow AL Central  rivals Cleveland (30/1), Chicago (40/1), and Minnesota (40/1).

The odds also indicate that the Royals are expected to be the 7th best team in the American League this year. What exactly does that mean? It means that they are looking a .500 record right in the eyes. In 2011, the 7th best team in the American League was the Blue Jays, whose overall record was 81-81.

Their status as the prognosticated runner-up in the AL Central is noteworthy as well. Cleveland, in particular, is a surprise. The Indians finished with an 80-82 record and picked up Ubaldo Jimenez in a deadline deal last season. They also acquired Derek Lowe and the immortal Roberto Hernandez Heredia, who both looks and pitches just like Fausto Carmona, only three years older.

Nevertheless, it’s good to see that the affable members of Royals Nation aren’t only ones predicting the Royals will outplay every team in the division who doesn’t start Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

3. Eric Hosmer 50/1 to Lead the Majors in Home Runs

While we’re looking at the lines, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight Hosmer’s perceived chances of leading the major leagues in home runs. He is considered to be the 25th most likely candidate to accomplish the feat, as he’s tied with the Angels’ Mark Trumbo with his 50 to 1 odds.

Last season the 25th best home run hitter in the major leagues cracked 29 jacks. His name was David Ortiz, and he ended 2011 with a .953 OPS. His name was also Joey Votto, who put up a robust .947 OPS to go with his 29 homers. And also Nelson Cruz, who got his 29 long balls in only 475 at bats, and went on to hit another eight home runs in the playoffs. In the interest of full disclosure, his name was also Josh Willingham and Mark Trumbo. Either way, I like the idea of Eric Hosmer hitting 29 home runs in 2012.

Sure, it would be fair to argue that this whole endeavor has been wildly unscientific. Based on the fact that I only looked at one source, you would be right. But there are still a couple weeks to go until spring training begins and this seems like relatively hopeful news. If nothing else just consider it more vindication for that gut feeling you probably already have. So let’s just kick back and take a moment to think about Eric Hosmer, with the help of a few breaks and some stiff breezes to right center field, making a certifiable September run at Steve Balboni’s epic franchise home run record while playing on a .500 team.

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That doesn’t mean that I haven’t been keeping up with what’s going on out there in the baseball world. Far from it.

I wanted to pass along a few great links that you should check out:

Earlier today, Billy Butler was named the recipient of the 2012 Hutch Award. The award is named after Fred Hutchinson who died at the age of 45 after a battle with cancer. Proceeds from the awards luncheon go towards cancer research and early detection efforts. Butler is an active member of the Royals when it comes to community outreach, and it has to be an honor to have his efforts recognized.

Connor Moylan did a fine job at Royals Review explaining why I’ve turned a 180 on the potential for signing Edwin Jackson. Last August I said Jackson was “more hype than substance“. Now, I’d like the Royals to sign Jackson, but don’t think that they will.

Over at I70 Baseball, Heath Cummings is drinking the Kool-Aid and gave away spoilers for the first six months of 2012 as they relate to the Royals. Good news! At the end of June, the Royals will be 11 games over .500!

Finally, my favorite find this week:

Ethan Bryan is a baseball fan and father who is passing on his love of baseball and the Royals to his daughters. He’s undertaking a huge project – trying to publish a book about the experience of life as a baseball fan and father. I can say all kings of great things about his posted excerpt but it’s really best that I let it speak for itself. Read it here. If you’re interested in helping him get the project off the ground, he’s raising funds to get published.

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The team almost went into a complete meltdown while the well-traveled Bruce Chen (career ERA+ of 95) was on the disabled list.

With a starting lineup full of guys picked from top prospect lists (past and present) and a bullpen loaded with young arms who are picking up high leverage innings and experience, the Royals feel like they might have a shot at contention in 2012.

There’s just that one thing – a big gaping hole known as the starting rotation.

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