September 10, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Chris Volstad (32) reacts after a pitch in the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

A quick heads up for readers of this blog: 90 percent of what you read this offseason will be about starting pitching. For me, this is a good thing. The Royals need starting pitching so we should write primarily about starting pitching. I’m just warning you so you’re not surprised by the repetitive theme of starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

With that in mind I’d like to write about … starting pitching. Specifically, the Earth shattering move the Royals made last week, signing Chris Volstad off waivers. Michael already covered this briefly, but I’d like to think more about it because I just read a post by the great and wise Rany Jazayerli that got me considering the Volstad move.

Let’s first note where everyone is starting the conversation: Volstad is not very good. We can all pretty much agree on that. He’s about replacement level. Nothing special but not Kyle Davies. He was once a well thought of prospect who never matched the expectations people had for him. He’s 26, right handed, doesn’t throw overly hard, and is extremely tall. He relies heavily on his defense and isn’t a strikeout pitcher.

I’m not going to consider whether or not Volstad is a good sign. It’s really too early to know that or even speculate with certainty because of how unset the Royals rotation is. I want to consider whether or not there is any way Volstad can have success in Kansas City.

After having poured over statistics, and having watched him pitch for the Cubs last season, my answer is maybe but probably not. I would put his chances of success in Kansas City at 20 percent, which is better than I would have given him with the Cubs.

Why so low? For one reason, moving into the AL for the first time will probably hurt Volstad. He’s only ever pitched in the NL so his strikeout numbers, never very good, will probably slip a bit. He walks to many people, and in the AL that kills. His lack of strikeout stuff makes him a wannabe Derek Lowe without Lowe’s command (in his prime anyway).

So, why so high at 20 percent (which is 20 points higher than Luke Hochevar)? Because Volstad is only 26, and he’s had “success” before. I use “success” in its loosest form. He’s never been Justin Verlander, but he’s been a decent pitcher before. His sinker has decent movement. His only real obstacle, that is, to reaching his potential as a solid 4, potentially decent 3, is his lack of command. He walked 3.48 hitters per nine innings last year. That’s not good at all when he’s only striking out 5 or 6 hitters per nine (in the NL). In 2011, maybe his best year statistically (3.64 xFIP), he only walked 2.66 hitters per nine. He needs to be around the 2-2.5 range to be effective.

If he can locate his sinker down in the zone consistently and get ground balls without walking people, he can be successful in Kauffman Stadium with the Royals’ defense. That’s a very big if. That’s why he only gets 20 percent, but that’s better than Hochevar’s 0 percent.

The bigger questions still lie out there. Will Volstad make the rotation? Make the team? What role will he fill? Isn’t he just Luis Mendoza, only taller and maybe more volatile? These are all questions that need to be answered. Not now, but eventually.

Chris Volstad, your newest Kansas City Royals pitcher. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

The move itself doesn’t bother me. Why not grab a cheap 26-year-old pitcher and see what happens? Most likely he’ll be used as insurance against injury, as he’s yet to show he can be a successful big league pitcher. But it doesn’t hurt anything for KC to take a gamble.

It’s the attitude of our front office that bothers me. In an article  by Bob Dutton, Dayton Moore said:

“We know who we are and how we have to build this team,” general manager Dayton Moore said, “and how we have to build our rotation. We’re going to be as aggressive as we can, but we know who we are and how we need to do it.”

Ummm…what? How are we supposed to interpret that comment? Does he mean that we know we need depth, so we are being smart and grabbing players we can stash in AAA in case of emergency? Or is he saying that the Royals can never hope to compete in free agency, and we can never dream of picking up an established starting pitcher?

My fear is Moore means the latter. Moore goes on in the same article to say building a team in Kansas City through the free agent market won’t work. Plain and simple. And I don’t disagree…the team doesn’t have the big market dollars to throw around. However, ownership should have enough money to go out and pick up a couple of legit players. If the scouts and front office officials believe in the position players and bullpen, they can afford to spend on a couple of starting pitchers.

If those players aren’t available, the Royals need to look long and hard at whom they are willing to part with in a trade. Moore does say the trade market is a viable option for the Royals, so that’s not out of the question. I also don’t necessarily believe Moore has the stones to pull off a big deal.

The comment from Moore, in my opinion, just reeks of a defeatist attitude. I’ve defended Moore for the most part during his tenure. I think he’s done a lot of great things here with getting David Glass to spend in the draft and raising the team’s presence in the international market, but maybe that’s where Moore belongs. Head of scouting or player development might be more in his wheelhouse.

I guess I shouldn’t fault Moore for setting his sites lower – most people in his position would probably get beaten down after a few years running this team. But the fans deserve better than that.

“We’re going to be as aggressive as we can, but we know who we are…”

Hey…we’re just the Royals… Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Not exactly confidence building words. We’ve gone from Glass saying that we’ll spend money on the rotation and doing what needs to be done…to this. So much for the excitement fans were feeling. The chatter among Royals fans for the last several weeks has been “Who do you think we’re going to bring in? Anibal Sanchez? Dan Haren?”

The talk moving forward will probably sound more like the fans from the first “Major League” movie. “Chris freaking Volstad? Who are these freaking guys?”

(I went ahead and edited that last part for basic cable)

The difference being, of course, this is not a feel good baseball movie where a bunch of loveable losers go to the playoffs. This is real life.  We need a GM who won’t basically go on record and say “Oh well…we’re just the Royals. This how we operate.”

It’s about time for the front office to stop preparing the fans for failure and start figuring out how to win.

July 3, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Chris Volstad (32) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

In his National League career, he’s been just a bit better than replacement level, throwing 695.1 innings in 124 games (and 123 starts) with a 5.7 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9. Last year, he had his worst season as a pro, putting up a 6.31 ERA in 111.1 innings for the Marlins.

Volstad stands 6’8″ and weighs 230 pounds. His over the top delivery and tall frame give him a downward plane towards the plate, and he’s had good ground ball rates in the big leagues (50.2%). While his numbers don’t look great, it’s worth taking a look at him and letting him compete for a spot in the rotation.

There may even be a possibility he can show some improvement. Volstad is only 26 years old and as a former first round pick, had talent that made him seem like a potential star. Some of his advanced statistics suggest he may have been unlucky (though when he’s given up more homers on fly balls than average  in three of his four full seasons, there’s enough to temper any excitement of a post-hype breakout. Baseball Reference lists comparable players based on his performance to date, and some names may help your outlook of him, some may hurt. These are names like Brian Bannister and Scott Olsen (bot age 26 comparables), but also names like Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson, who both should cash in this offseason (listed as comparables through age-25 seasons). That doesn’t mean he’ll be Edwin Jackson and it doesn’t mean he’ll turn into Brian Bannister, just that the performance relative to age is similar.

Volstad will add depth to the competition and act as a buffer in case of more injuries like last season, and who knows, maybe he’ll turn it around and become a success in Kansas City – despite the American League being a tougher league.

The Royals will take on his contract, which puts him in his second eligible season of arbitration. In 2012, he made $2.65 million after settling to terms. This time, he’s projected to earn $3 million. With the Royals already set to pay Bruce Chen $4.5 million and Luke Hochevar somewhere in the same range or more, it seems the Royals are paying a lot to a few starters who are average at best and often much worse.

Thus, there’s already early speculation that this move is foretelling the departure of Luke Hochevar. Volstad is cheaper, younger and better statistically.