Via Jen Nevius

It has been a rough go for Dwyer since his first full season in 2010, which he split between High-A and Double-A after signing in 2009 as a draft eligible freshman out of Clemson. Delivery issues have been his problem, as he tends to throw across his body and not finish pitches. That takes away the bite on his 12-to-6 curveball.

The Royals envisioned him as a middle of the rotation starter but he has not harnessed his pitches. In 2011 with NW Arkansas, he was 8-10 with a 5.60 ERA in 27 starts. Over 141 innings, he allowed 124 hits (14 homeruns) and walked 78, compared to 126 strikeouts.

Dwyer returned to the Naturals to start the 2012 season, but he went 5-8 with a 5.25 ERA in 17 games (16 starts). He allowed 79 hits (13 homeruns) and walked 44 in 85.2 innings. He struck out 71. Despite his struggles, the Royals pushed him to Triple-A, where he was worse. In nine starts, he allowed 73 hits (ten homeruns) and walked 24 in 50.1 innings. He struck out 33, but opponents hit .349 against him and he finished with a 6.97 ERA.

The Royals could send Dwyer back to Omaha, but they could also send him back to Double-A, as he has yet to master that level. He will be 25 in April, so his prospect status is running out.

MLB.com ranks Dwyer as the Royals 12th best prospect. Interestingly, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star does not rank him as a top prospect.

Check out this video by kcscoliny from the 2011 Royals Futures Game, as Dwyer faces second baseman Johnny Giavotella:

The Storm Chasers collected 13 hits. Tony Abreu and Adam Moore each collected three hits, as Moore scored two runs. Clint Robinson and Max Ramirez both had two hits.

NW Arkansas has now lost six in a row to Springfield, as they lost Saturday night 4-1. The Naturals collected six hits, all singles. Their lone run tied that game at 1-1 in the top of the 3rd inning on Rey Navarro‘s two out RBI single.

In the bullpen game, Bryan Paukovits was the second pitcher and threw three scoreless innings.

Lane Adams

Wilmington scored one run in the top of the first inning and waited until the late innings to take the game over Salem, 7-4. The Red Sox cut it to 5-4, but Lane Adams hit a two-run homerun in the top of the 9th inning to seal the deal.

The Blue Rocks collected 16 hits, with five players having multi-hit games. Juan Graterol went 4-for-4 and Orlando Calixte went 3-for-5 with three RBIs.

Edwin Carl picked up the win with three shutout innings of relief. The Blue Rocks outfielders threw out two base runners at the plate.

Kane County won their first game in Dayton, 9-1. The Cougars scored five runs in the 4th inning (after already leading 3-0) and never looked back.

Daniel Mateo hit two homeruns, accounting for four runs. Dean Espy went 3-for-5. Alex Llanos and Henry Moreno each collected two hits in the win.

Kyle Smith picked up his first win with the Cougars, as he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out nine. Michael Giovenco followed with 2.1 scoreless innings of relief. He struck out four.

Bubba Watch: Burlington and Danville were postponed on Saturday. Not sure yet if/when it will be made up.

April 15, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cleveland Indians center fielder Mitch Maier delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

If you thought Monday night’s KC Royals game was bad, then you didn’t get a chance to check out the Omaha game. They lost to OKC, 16-6. The game was actually semi-close (OKC led 4-2 heading into the 6th inning), before OKC scored ten runs in the 6th inning.

Chris Dwyer made his Triple-A debut and allowed seven runs on 11 hits and three walks over 5 innings (plus three batters into the 6th). Roman Colon followed by allowing seven runs in that 6th inning (his only inning of work). Granted, only one run was earned (Omaha made four errors on the night).

The best part of the night may have been the move from right field to the mound for Mitch Maier (yet again) in his return to Omaha. He allowed two unearned runs on two hits in his one inning of work (he went 0-for-3 at the plate).

Brian Fletcher hit two homeruns, but NW Arkansas lost to Arkansas, 11-6. It was the Naturals fifth loss in a row. Fletcher drove in four runs.

Noel Arguelles had another tough start, as he threw 110 pitches over just 4.2 innings. He allowed seven runs on seven hits and six walks. Those runs were scored over the 4th and 5th innings. In Baseball America’s latest issue, Arguelles was named the Royals biggest disappointment at midseason.

Wilmington collected just five hits and lost in Myrtle Beach, 2-0. Two of those hits came from Matt Fields.

Matt Ridings was the hard luck loser, as he allowed both runs on six hits over six innings.

The Blue Rocks made a roster move, sending catcher Kevin David (who was struggling and receiving less and less playing time) to Kane County. Murray Watts will join the team on Tuesday.

Kane County was the only Royals affiliate to win on Monday night, as they beat West Michigan, 9-5. The Cougars scored six runs in the bottom of the 3rd inning.

Tim Ferguson started the 3rd inning with a solo homerun. They went on to collect six more hits in the inning (Ferguson had two hits in the inning), a walk, and a sac fly.

All of that scoring made a winner of Aaron Brooks, who allowed three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings.

Bubba Watch: Burlington beat Princeton, 10-3 and Bubba Starling went 2-for-5 with two runs scored.

Mike Montgomery. (Photo: Minda Haas)

In a move that is mildly surprising but not really shocking, the Royals demoted Mike Montgomery to Double A Northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning and promoted Chris Dwyer from the Naturals to Omaha, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.

Both left-handed pitchers have notably struggled in the last two seasons after success up to the A-ball level.

Dwyer’s been stuck in Double A since 2010, making four starts there that season, playing all of 2011 there and only recently showing any signs of consistent command. Montgomery looked good enough to make the big league club in 2011 during spring training but was sent down anyway and hasn’t been the same since the middle of 2010 when he had some arm issues that nagged him.

Dwyer has had a number of strong outings this year for the Naturals and it felt like the 24-year-old was close to at least getting bumped up from Double A for once. He threw the first seven innings of a Naturals no-hitter in May and over his last six starts, he’s thrown 31 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a 25/9 K/BB ratio.

Montgomery had two absolute bombs in his last three starts, giving up 11 runs in 1.1 innings (even though only 4 were earned) and 8 runs in his next start July 3. He had a 24/9 K/BB ratio in his last 24.1 innings, but also gave up 40 base hits in that time. There have been suggestions that his velocity may be down, too.

Ideally, this works as a wakeup call for Montgomery and he gets back to the guy who rocketed through the low levels getting everybody out. He’s competitive and maybe he’ll be pushed by this move. Aaron Crow was demoted as a starter in 2010 from Double A to High A and came back the next spring and earned a spot in the bullpen, eventually being named an All-Star.

Or, maybe Montgomery keeps languishing. He really hasn’t been sharp for a while now and while he’s just 23 years old, poor results are still poor results. He still has the stuff to be a strong starter, but the likelihood he can reach that potential is shrinking.

Clint Robinson and Max Ramirez both collected two hits, with Ramirez driving in three runs. Tony Abreu went 3-for-4 with two RBIs.

Feb 29, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Chris Dwyer (33) poses for a picture during the Royals photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

NW Arkansas took the pitcher’s duel over Arkansas, 1-0. The Naturals were outhit 2-3, but picked up the game’s lone run on a wild pitch in the 6th inning.

Chris Dwyer allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings. He struck out seven and did not walk a batter.

Wilmington was rained out in Carolina on Friday night. The two teams will play a doubleheader on Saturday. Jason Adam will start the first game against Mike Rayl with Tyler Sample starting the second game against Will Roberts.

Prior to the game, it was announced that Jake Kuebler (who has spent part of the season on the “DL”) was released. Taking his place is first baseman Matt Fields, who was just signed from the independent Frontier League. He had nine homeruns in 31 games (which led the league), but he has yet to hit at Frawley Stadium.

Kane County collected just four hits, as they lost to Clinton, 6-1 to start the second half in the Midwest League. Daniel Mateo had two of those hits.

Robinson Yambati gave the Cougars four solid innings of relief. He allowed one run on three hits.

KC Royals second round draft pick in 2011, catcher Cameron Gallagher, was taken out in the first inning after a catcher’s interference call just five batters into the game. Hopefully he is okay. 2012 draft pick Beau Maggi replaced him and went 0-for-2 with three walks.

March 11, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Mike Montgomery (22) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

After winning ten in a row, Omaha has now lost two straight, as they lost the finale in Nashville on Sunday, 4-1. The Storm Chasers out-hit the Sounds, 10-6 but committed three errors, went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and grounded into two double plays.

Wil Myers went 4-for-5, but did not score a run. Salvador Perez caught all nine innings (but did not collect a hit).

With the injury to Chris Getz at the big league level, Johnny Giavotella was taken out after his first at-bat (a first inning strikeout). Max Ramirez replaced Gio in the lineup and went 2-for-4.

Mike Montgomery was solid, despite the loss. He allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks over six innings.

NW Arkansas ended their two game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over Springfield to split the four-game series. Chris Dwyer pitched into the 8th inning before really getting into trouble. He allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out six.

The Cardinals made it interesting in the 9th inning, but Buddy Baumann worked around an RBI double and two walks to escape with the save.

Yem Prades provided the insurance (and actual game winning run) with a solo homerun in the top of the 9th inning. Eric Duncan gave the Naturals the lead in the 4th inning with a two-run homerun.

Wilmington tied an unfortunate record in the team’s history: most losses in a first half. They tied the 2000 team with 41 first half losses. The 2000 team (which was full of prospects at the time) was one of the worst teams in history. The Blue Rocks lost to Winston-Salem, 6-5 in ten innings to end the first half.

It was a bullpen game for the Blue Rocks and they actually led 4-1 before the Dash scored three runs in the 4th inning. Nick Rogers was the hard-luck loser, as he allowed an unearned run in the top of the 10th inning. He walked three (he did not allow a hit) over 2.1 innings.

The bottom two in the Blue Rocks order, bench players Michael Liberto and Luis Piterson, went 4-for-9. The Blue Rocks out-hit the Dash, 11-9, but went just 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and struck out 12 times.

The Blue Rocks have the next three days off for the All-Star break and hopefully can forget about the first half and play better when the second half starts on Thursday in Carolina.

Kane County is heading into the All-Star break on a down note, just like the Blue Rocks. The Cougars have lost five in a row (and eight of their last nine), as they lost Sunday’s finale to Cedar Rapids, 5-3. The Cougars bullpen did throw four hitless (and scoreless) innings of relief.

On offense, Daniel Mateo, Jorge Bonifacio, and Orlando Calixte each had two hits (six of the team’s eight hits). Calixte hit his tenth homerun of the season.

Going into 2011, the Royals had a slew of high-profile arms in their system. Baseball America placed five pitchers within their top 100 rankings.

Danny Duffy reached the majors and mostly struggled, came out in 2012 and looked impressive. Then a UCL tear ended his season. He just underwent successful Tommy John surgery himself. Mike Montgomery, lauded as the top prospect in the system before 2012 by Baseball America, has had a handful of exciting starts, but mostly has had the same command and control issues that plagued him last season. Jake Odorizzi has made an impression in Triple A and has jumped in front of the group as the best pitching prospect anywhere near the majors. Chris Dwyer has struggled since reaching Double A and is running out of time.

All four, along with Lamb, were top 100 prospects. Lamb, at #18, was considered the best.

There hasn’t been any indication of what level Lamb may end up at to start his rehab pitching, but he’ll probably toil in lower levels to get back to game speed with a shot at a couple of Double A starts at the end of the year. Perhaps if things go well enough, he might see a stop in Triple A, which would set him up nicely to return to that level next spring with an opportunity to make his way to Kansas City in mid-season.

It all depends on his elbow and how he’s able to regain his strength.

Lamb never relied on high velocity to be effective, though he can work in the low-90s with his fastball. His best weapon is hitting spots with his fastball. He’s a tough, smart pitcher who had control of his secondary pitches early in 2011 and looked like he might reach Omaha by season’s end.

So if he arm strength is there and the stuff returns, it’s not out of the question to see him in Triple A. It’s just unlikely.

Often, a pitcher still needs a lot of time to get back to full speed, though rehab programs and recovery times are making that regrouping window smaller and smaller in many cases. Every injury is different, so it’s not fair to hold Lamb to the standard of Stephen Strasburg, who returned to the big leagues just over a year after having Tommy John surgery. The Royals also had enough cause to hold Lamb back since he wasn’t automatic for Triple A and the Royals weren’t looking for him to contribute at the major league level this soon either.

Lamb was a trainee with Jaeger Sports, and I’m sure he’s adopted much of their long toss teachings to get back in shape. The additional arm strength may even add some zip to his fastball and help his endurance as he returns. We’ll have to see as he makes his way back and gets into games.

We have to wait on Duffy. Dwyer may never be more than a reliever, if that. Montgomery will still probably be up this year, but who knows how well he’ll be able to do. Odorizzi is the best of the bunch (thankfully). But Odorizzi alone won’t be enough when the organization ends up sniffing contention again. John Lamb would be a fine complement – so hopefully all goes well starting next month.

Holland started the night with three strikeouts as he makes his way back to health and the Royals bullpen.

Chris Dwyer is happy and with good reason. Photo: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Chris Dwyer took over and, despite struggles all year, rolled through 6.2 innings and left after 103 pitches. Brendan Lafferty finished the eighth inning for him and put the feat in the hands of Kendal Volz.

The first batter Volz faced – Jermaine Curtis – ripped a line drive but it was right at shortstop Christian Colon. Two ground outs later and the Naturals celebrated their second no-hitter in team history. The first came last year when Will Smith and Kelvin Herrera combined to shut down Memphis.

This is encouraging for Dwyer, who hasn’t had a lot of encouraging signs since hitting Double A. Coming into the game, he had a 7.46 ERA and was walking six batters per nine innings. At 24 years old, he’s running out of time to show that he can be an impact prospect anymore. Nights like tonight show that, now and then at least, he can be a dominant pitcher.

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The wacky Puffy Taco mascot of the San Antonio Missions AA Baseball team

The first thing you need to know about the Naturals’ road trip to San Antonio is that they were confronted with possibly the wackiest mascot in baseball.  Nuttier than the Flying Squirrel in Richmond, VA; loonier than the Lansing, MI Big Lug Lugnut; much cuter than Gnate the Sand Gnat of Savannah; and equally as crazy as the Sushi Rolls of Vancouver, Canada.  You’ll almost never see him on a list of the most off-the-wall minor league characters, but I’m smitten with the mascot of the San Antonio Mission’s (the AA affiliate of the San Diego Padres), the Puffy Taco and his trusty companion, Ballapeño.  And don’t forget their best friend H.E.Buddy, the grocery bag mascot (yes, grocery bag) from the dominant local grocery store chain H.E.B.

Once you get past the kitschy trappings of minor league baseball, they actually play some fun games that are meaningful – at least to the players and the fans of players with high potential that we expect to eventually see in the majors.   And that’s the reason you’re reading this story right now.

I wish I could give you a sunshine and roses report of the Naturals performance, but that wouldn’t be the truth.  So, what I’m going to do is offer you is my list of “takeaways” from the game, both good and bad.

Here’s my first takeaway, and you aren’t going to like it.  Will Myers was not impressive.  Not at all.  I only saw him play one game, but he looked completely lost at the plate and nothing like the guy who tore up the Arizona Fall League a few months ago.  In the first inning he struck out swinging on 3 pitches (and looked bad doing it) immediately after the first two batters of the game hit solid singles up the middle and we needed him to move the runners.  In his second at bat he popped straight up to the catcher.  He struck out again in another at bat.  The only hit he received in 5 at bats was against a pitcher who was on the ropes, following a long delay and a coach’s visit to the mound, he squirted a broken bat single over the second baseman’s head.  Not an impressive day’s work for Mr. Myers.

The Naturals Christian Colon waits for a pitch while Wil Myers looks on from the on deck circle. April 9, 2012 CREDIT: Alan Barrington

On the other hand, on this particular day Christian Colon looked every bit the player and leader the Royals selected him to be.  He was 4 for 4 at the plate, and every hit was a ringing line drive.  He turned two nearly identical outstanding defensive plays in the field, running hard to his right, backhanding a ground ball before it could escape into left field, and throwing back across his body to force a fast runner at second base.  When Tim Melville, the Naturals starting pitcher, threw five straight balls to begin the game, Colon didn’t wait to act.  He showed leadership on the field, called time out and went to the mound alone to calm Melville down.  It must have worked, Melville didn’t give up a run and only allowed 3 hits, 1 walk (the first batter of the game), and 6 strikeouts in 5 innings pitched.

Colon stole second, only his first stolen base of the season, but when I describe the play I think you’ll agree he needs to make more attempts.  After he stole second base, he stood up and I probably could have counted three Mississippi’s before the ball arrived from the catcher.  Colon got an absurd jump on the pitch and made the Mission’s battery look like they were chasing shadows.

One other thing about Christian Colon – Baseball Reference says he’s 6’ 1” tall.  I didn’t take a measuring tape onto the field, but he doesn’t look anything close to that in my opinion.  But if you think his size might indicate he isn’t tough, consider this – He was hit by a pitch, and I don’t think he made any attempt to move out of the way.  Christian ended the night reaching base five times in five at bats.  I love the toughness and the willingness to do anything necessary to get on base and give his team a chance to win.

The Naturals starting pitcher Tim Melville warms up prior to the game. April 9, 2012. CREDIT: Alan Barrington

Tim Melville started the game on the mound for the Naturals and I didn’t know much about him before the game.  But this week I learned he knows how to mix his pitches and can make the opposing hitters chase balls in the dirt.  Unfortunately, I didn’t find the radar gun readout in the stadium until late in the game (it was lost in the sea of advertising signs on the outfield wall), so I don’t know how fast he was throwing, but he was definitely fooling people and pulling the string on occassion.

I was very impressed with the defensive play of light hitting second baseman Sharlon Schoop.  He made a fantastic play moving hard toward the right field line, throwing himself into a headlong dive, and came up firing a bullet to nail the runner at first.  It was “Frank Whitesque” and the best defensive play of the night.  However, I wish I had positive comments about the rest of his game.  He wandered two far off second and was nearly picked off by a snap throw from the catcher.  (How embarrassing would that be to get picked off second by the catcher?)  He struck out on a ball that was nearly over his head which got the crowd excited and a few of the drunk Missions fans sitting near me taunted him with a few choice words on his walk back to the dugout.  I considered joining them.

A few more miscellaneous notes:

• Melville was replaced on the mound by Elisaul Pimentel.  Pimentel got rocked and only lasted 2/3 of an inning.
• Catcher Ryan Jenkins did a good job of going with a tough pitch and poking it up the middle for a base hit to drive in 2 runs.
• Third Baseman Kurt Mertins laid down a picture perfect sacrifice bunt to move two runners, then hustled down the line and beat the throw to first on an error to load the bases.
• Edinson Rincon let a ball play him in left field.  He ran in to field a ball that was about to land in front of him, thought of diving for it (I think he could have gotten to it if he had committed rather than hesitating), changed his mind and backed off.  The ball bounced past him, but he was able to get it back to the infield before the runner could advance to second.
• Some of the guys I really wanted to see didn’t make it into the game: Promising pitchers Chris Dwyer, Noel Arguelles, Jake Odorizzi, and catcher Ben Theriot.  And of course, pitcher John Lamb is still recovering from surgery so it will be a couple more months before anyone has a chance to see him play.

Noel Arguelles, the only Naturals player on the Royals 40 man major league roster. April 9, 2012 CREDIT: Alan Barrington

This team doesn’t appear to be full of superstars in-waiting as the Naturals of the past two years have been.  But there is talent here that the fans of Northwest Arkansas will enjoy watching this Summer, and in particular a pitching staff that has the ability to completely shut down the opposing team on any given night.  Maybe I’ll get lucky and see some of those guys take the mound the next time I get to see the Naturals play.

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Omaha opened up at home, kicking off their second season in Werner Park (and as the “Storm Chasers’) with a come from behind 8-4 win over Albuquerque.

Clint Robinson scored three times and had two doubles, while Kevin Kouzmanoff drove in three with two doubles. Johnny Giavotella went 2-5. Will Smith got the start and survived two bases loaded jams, but didn’t have the control he usually has. He walked six and was lifted after three innings and 74 pitches. Ethan Hollingsworth and Jeremy Jeffress held the Isotopes in check while the Royals started to come back and eventually gained the lead. Louis Coleman struck out the only batter he faced to earn a save after Tommy Hottovy put two batters on.

Northwest Arkansas opened on the road at Corpus Christi and the only real bright spot was a decent start from Chris Dwyer. The lefty has had his struggles, especially last year, but he struck out five and, even better, walked just one over 4.1 innings. The Naturals lost 9-0 but due to five errors, only five of the runs were earned.

Christian Colon had a rought 2012 debut with two throwing errors while going hitless in five at bats. Wil Myers was 1-3 with a single and a walk.

Kane County scored nine times in the second inning, including a triple and grand slam from outfielder Lane Adams. They turned around and gave up six runs in the bottom of the inning though, but held on to win 11-10. Daniel Mateo went 2-4.

The pitching started out rough, but the Cougars held on with the combination of Matt Ridings and Nick Graffeo, who combined for the final 3.1 innings, holding the Quad Cities River Bandits to one hit while striking out four combined. Graffeo worked the ninth for the save.

Wilmington in High A didn’t play today, but kick off their season on Friday on the road against Myrtle Beach. Tyler Sample, 2008 third round pick, gets the first start for the Blue Rocks.

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Kevin Kouzmanoff had reason to smile on Monday afternoon after a walkoff double. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Remember how it seemed like the Royals were winning games in walkoff fashion twice a week last season? I guess old habits die hard.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ripped a pinch hit double to center field with two outs, scoring Mike Moustakas and winning run Wil Myers in the bottom of the ninth in the Royals second spring training game.

Players mobbed Kouzmanoff as the Royals finished off a comeback from an early 5-0 and 6-1 deficit.

Bruce Chen had the start with two innings of work planned, but gave up hits to 7 of the 12 batters he faced. Just one of the hits he gave up all day went for extra bases, but in the first inning a throwing error by Johnny Giavotella allowed Elvis Andrus to score from first on a single by Adrian Beltre. Ian Kinsler scored on the play as well as Beltre moved up to second, then scored after two more hits. Chen opened the second inning by getting a ground out but a Kinsler single followed by an Andrus triple got him in trouble. After Josh Hamilton made the second out of the inning, Ned Yost pulled Chen in favor of right-handed Louis Coleman to face Beltre, who singled, driving in Andrus.

After Jeff Francoeur and Lorenzo Cain hit back to back doubles to put the Royals on the board, the Rangers got the run back after two singles and a double off Mike Montgomery.

Montgomery wasn’t sharp in his first outing of spring – he threw just 18 strikes in 32 pitches – but he was able to induce a ground ball double play in his first inning and retired the Rangers in order in his second and last inning of work. Chris Dwyer also pitched and handled Texas. He did walk a batter, but nobody got a hit and he struck Luis Hernandez out looking on a slow curve.

The Royals scored twice in the fifth after an Alcides Escobar triple and Alex Gordon homer, then again in the sixth after Derrick Robinson punched a single through the infield with the bases loaded. Then, after three straight walks (and a 5-2 forceout/tagout) in the ninth, Kouzmanoff delivered his walk off shot.

Eric Hosmer had two singles and Wil Myers scored twice. Blake Wood, who’d shut down the Rangers with two ground outs and a strike out on six pitches, got the win.

The Royals have split squad action tomorrow, with games against the Padres and Indians both kicking off at 2:05 CST. Luke Hochevar and Will Smith (respectively) will start and are scheduled for two innings in their games. Jake Odorizzi and Noel Arguelles are also scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

3/5/12 Scorecard:

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Danny Duffy impressed last year as a non-roster invitee and was soon in the big leagues. Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals released their list of spring training non-roster invitees last week, and as usual the list is filled equally with promising young prospects and replacement level bargains. Many won’t make an impact on the 2012 Royals, but nonetheless it is an opportunity to impress the front office brass. A strong showing as a non-roster invitee can put a top prospect on the fast track.

Non-roster invitees are intriguing because they are all upside. Even established major leaguers who find themselves signed as non-roster invitees are promised nothing but an opportunity. There is nothing to lose, but everything to gain.

For instance, the Royals brought in 23 non-roster invitees in 2011, and only Tim Collins and Louis Coleman made the opening day roster. But they weren’t the only players who made an impression.

Fellow non-roster invitees Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and Luis Mendoza eventually played games for the Royals last year. Several other prospects, including Mike Montgomery, impressed as well.

So, you must be thinking, which non-roster invitees have the best chance to make an impact in 2012? How thoughtful of you to ask. I’ve put together my list, ranking each invitee from most to least likely to have an MLB impact this year. I’ll also give percentage odds for each player, in order to show which guys have earned the greatest share of my confidence in their ability to help this year’s Kansas City Royals.

What could be more scintillating than that?

Mike Montgomery – 85%

I’ve already given my thoughts on Montgomery here, so I’ll try to keep this short and sweet. Not only do I think the Royals need Montgomery to produce for the big league club this year, but I also think he almost surely will impress. I expect Montgomery to follow Danny Duffy’s 2011 trajectory and earn a major-league call-up sometime in May. Montgomery simply doesn’t need another full season in Omaha, and he possesses superior raw stuff to Duffy. It’s also important to remember that Duffy’s leapfrog of Montgomery last season was a notable shock. Montgomery remains the better prospect with the better stuff, and I think he’ll have a campaign that’s slightly better than Duffy’s 2011. And this is coming from a guy who thought Duffy positively impressed last season. Montgomery is all set to be a gem.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 60%

This is where the meaning of the word ‘impact’ becomes skewed a bit. I have no delusions of grandeur regarding Kouzmanoff. Although once a promising prospect, Kouz is essentially a replacement level player at this point (career .300 OBP). At the same time I think he has a fighter’s chance to make the 25 man roster (as a backup to Mike Moustakas at third base), and he very well may be the only person on this list who is able to make that claim.

In order to have an impact, a player actually has to suit up for the team. Whether through an inspired spring performance, injury, or inconsistency, I’m 60% confident that Kouzmanoff will play in 40 or more games for the Royals this season. If that becomes the case, then I am 95% confident that I will inevitably unleash a drunken, expletive-laden tirade against Kouzmanoff this summer when he is mired in a 0-21 spell and sporting a .285 OBP.

Wil Myers – 39%

Ok, hear me out here. Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and Lorenzo Cain will be the starting outfield for the opening day Royals, barring injury. The next best available options appear to be Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough.  Each of those guys has their merits, but none of them are Wil Myers.

Here’s a question for you: why can’t Myers be this year’s version of Eric Hosmer? Myers is 21 years old, or to put it a different way, the same age Hosmer was at the beginning of last season. Myers also played last season at Northwest Arkansas, the same level Hosmer reached in 2010 before being placed on the fast track.

Wil Myers played in the Futures game last year, and could potentially play for the Royals this year. Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Like Hosmer in 2010, Myers dominated in the subsequent Arizona Fall League. Sure, his numbers don’t stack up with Hosmer’s Double-A figures. But Myers had some extenuating circumstances. He suffered a nasty knee injury after a fluky spill at the beginning of the season, and struggled to regain his form afterwards. But like Hosmer, the physical tools are still there: the quick bat, the plate discipline, and the rocket arm have not gone anywhere. Plus, Myers has already played twice as many games at Double-A as Hosmer did. The Royals moved Myers from catcher so that he could progress quickly through the system, and with a strong spring, I think they’ll give him the same chance Hosmer did to shoot through the system like a meteor. Furthermore, after last season, Myers has something to prove. I expect to see him with the Royals by the end of the season, even if it’s just for a cup of coffee.

Max Ramirez – 29%

Here’s a guy who I have had trouble deciding on. He should probably be placed further down this list, since he is ostensibly behind Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena, and Manny Pina on the depth chart. But he is a career .867 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. And since he’s played 646 games in the minors over eight seasons, I’d venture to say that his offensive numbers aren’t a mirage built on small sample size. That .867 OPS is 100 points better than Pena’s minor league total, and 200 points over what Pina has produced thus far.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, I would not be overly shocked if the Royals cut bait with Pena and Ramirez emerges as Perez’ backup this season. Keep in mind that Perez is young and fresh, and may not need more than 30 games off behind the dish this season. Wouldn’t it be nice to finally have some pop and patience at the catcher position? Even if Ramirez is utilized primarily as a pinch hitter, I see some value there. Oh, and while writing this piece, I learned that Ramirez’ given first name is Maximiliano. So there’s also that to inspire confidence.

Irving Falu – 26%

I know what the most cynical and sarcastic of fans will say here: “whenever you can get a 28 year old career minor leaguer with a .696 career OPS into the lineup you’ve got to seize the opportunity.” I know that’s what you’re thinking because it was exactly what I first thought upon seeing Falu’s name among the non-roster invitees. But then I realized that the primary backup infielders will probably be some combination of Kouzmanoff, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Chris Getz, and I suddenly began reconsidering Falu’s candidacy in earnest. And there are some things to like about Falu.

For instance, did you know that he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts during his minor league career? Or that he has logged games at all three outfield spots, second base, shortstop, and third base? Or that 2011 was his best statistical season? I’m not saying he’s a lock to contribute or anything, but I think assuming he’s still with the organization, that he’ll be the first middle infielder recalled if there is an injury. If that’s not a ringing endorsement then I don’t know what is.

Chris Dwyer – 25%

Hey, I’m not saying I’m banking on it, but I would not be shocked to see Dwyer make a couple of starts for the Royals in 2012. After pitching four games for Northwest Arkansas in 2010, Dwyer remained in Double-A for the entirety of 2011. Although he struggled during the first half, Dwyer turned it on in the second half and actually out-produced highly touted prospect Jake Odorizzi while both were toiling for Northwest Arkansas. Dwyer also has more strikeouts than walks in his career, so the stuff is there. If the front office believes that the second half Dwyer is the real version, then he could be a fast riser this season.

Zach Miner – 20%

Sure he doesn’t strike out anybody, and he is still working his way back from a major injury in 2010. I get that. But looking at Miner with squinted eyes, I also see that Miner has a 25-20 career record in the major leagues to accompany his 4.24 cumulative ERA. Once you see the other pitchers on this list, and their career major league experience, you’ll see why Miner is so high up this list.

Will Smith – 16%

Smith would probably be above Dwyer on this list if my intuition hadn’t led me to believe Dwyer will have a breakout season. Smith, though, did plenty well for himself at Northwest Arkansas in 2011. Smith put up a 13-9 record and a 3.85 ERA in a full season of Double-A, and was probably the best pitcher on NWA’s staff. Also going for Smith is the fact that he’s already pitched (albeit poorly) in Triple-A while in the Angels system. There’s no reason that Smith should go back to Northwest Arkansas next year, which means that he will be among the pitchers in Omaha with the best chance to get a late season or injury-induced call-up. I’d say that’s makes him about a 16% chance to make an impact on the big league club.

Jake Odorizzi – 7%

Odorizzi is clearly a year away, and that is not a bad thing. He got roughed up a little bit in his introduction to Double-A last year after torching High-A Wilmington. Odorizzi won’t turn 22 until March, so another season spent between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha could still be constructive for one of the organization’s top young prospects. There is still an outside chance that

Tony Abreu – 6%

I’m just not seeing it with Abreu. Give me Falu every day of the week. Abreu can’t hit and doesn’t walk. He owns a career .279 OBP. He should be purely minor league filler. Major league service time alone places him above the other names on this list.

Greg Golson – 5%

The best thing Golson has going for him is his versatility. He’s played all three outfield positions in the minors and possesses a enough speed to make him dangerous on the base paths. Unfortunately, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Golson has been struck out a whopping 941 times in his minor league career, against just 207 walks. Myers, Jarrod Dyson, and David Lough are simply better players than Golson and will get any call-up before him.

Cody Clark, Paulo Orlando, Tommy Hottovy, Francisley Bueno Julio Rodriguez – 0.00%

None of these guys has a chance to crack the big league roster in 2012. Frankly, their inclusion among the non-roster invitees seems a bit dubious. I’m not even going to sugarcoat it: when I saw Francisley Bueno’s name mentioned among the camp invites, I had no idea who he was. None at all. What is he doing at major league camp?

But I guess that’s the nature of non-roster invitees. There are no expectations. If Dayton Moore wants to bring in a guy whose name translates to “good”, then by all means he should be empowered to do so. And if Bueno somehow turns into Ricky Vaughn, then I will happily eat crow.

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Pitchers: Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, Jake Odorizzi, Will Smith, Francisely Bueno, Tommy Hottovy, Zach Miner

Catchers: Cody Clark, Max Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez

Outfielders:  Wil Myers, Greg Golson, Paulo Orlando

Infielders: Tony Abreu, Irving Falu and Kevin Kouzmanoff

I don’t think I’m alone in saying I want to see what Montgomery and Myers can do in MLB camp but realistically both in my opinion won’t be in Kansas City until after the all-star break. From a practical standpoint I think the team needs the versatile Falu to have a good camp to help the bench. Lastly let’s be realistic, Kouzmanoff was signed to be in KC so this is his tryout to be the team’s backup to Moose at third.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Mike Vamosi on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

• Royals Prospect Review: Danny Duffy
• Royals Prospect Review: Chris Dwyer
• Trading the Farm to Mortgage the Future? - Mike Vamosi’s debut article on Kings of Kauffman.
• Airing of Grievances - Kevin Scobee enjoys Festivus and discusses Yuniesky Betancourt.
• Christmas Wishes - Ryan Wood with a letter to Santa for the upcoming Royals season.
• Kings of Kauffman Royals Wish List - My wishlist for the season as well as those from Alan Barrington, Mike Vamosi and Paul Thompson, our three newest staff writers.
• Merry Christmas Royals Fans - Brett Christie joined in the fun, too.
• Yuletide Verse From a Kansas City Fan - Ethan Evans provided a well-done poem about the Royals.
• Kings of Kauffman Mailbag – Ep. 3 - Kevin Scobee answers readers’ questions. You can ask your own at KoKMailbag@gmail.com.

Dwyer, 4th round pick in 2009, ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects before 2011. His performance assures that he can’t rank in that group again this year. In 141.1 innings in 2011, Dwyer put up a 5.60 ERA and 1.429 WHIP while walking more than five batters per nine innings for Double A Northwest Arkansas. For Dwyer, who turns 24 in April, it’s not the performance that he’d have wanted to assure the Royals that he was ready for the next step.

It begs the question: does Chris Dwyer have a next step?

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This year, the Naturals hope to repeat, while the Omaha Storm Chasers try to add to the success in the Pacific Coast League playoffs.  Kane County is also representing the Royals in the Midwest League.

Playoff series started yesterday.  So how did everyone do?

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• Mike Montgomery is walking 4.5 batters per nine innings with a 5.35 ERA for Triple A Omaha.
• John Lamb is out for a year or more after Tommy John surgery.
• Jake Odorizzi was dynamite in Wilmington, but his transition to Northwest Arkansas hasn’t been as seemless.
• Danny Duffy has shown flashes at the big league level but still struggles with his pitch counts and just took his lumps in a three inning, eight run debacle in which he threw 90 pitches to get nine outs.

With starters starting to go deeper into games and numerous candidates vying for bullpen roles, players like Dwyer, Lamb and Smith are shifting to get more innings in minor league camp.

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The Royals crop of minor league players may be the most talented in recent history.  That’s according to Baseball America’s annual prospect rankings, which place nine Royals in their top 100.

Nine prospects from one organization is a record in the 22 years that BA has been doing the top 100.

Who made the cut?  You probably won’t be surprised.

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Rankings:
~ Baseball America: #8
~ Royals Review #6
~ Kevin Goldstein: #6
~ John Sickels: #9 B
~ Royals Prospects: #6
~ 2010 Kings of Kauffman Rankings: #11
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Crediting a “willingness to spend large amounts of money in the draft and a solid player-development system” the Royals enjoy the deepest and most talented minor league system in baseball.  This distinction was one that Royals fans who follow the minors has been expecting since somewhere around May or June, but the validation feels good, doesn’t it?

In what must have been a difficult decision, Eric Hosmer was selected as the top prospect in the Royals system.
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It should be no surprise that Mike Moustakas is the recipient of the Brett Award and John Lamb won the Splittorff Award.

On top of those honors, the Royals also named players of the year for their minor league affiliates today.
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We’re just past two weeks past his 20th birthday, and John Lamb has been promoted from High A Wilmington to Double A Northwest Arkansas.  This follows an earlier midseason promotion, as he was advanced from Low A Burlington to Wilmington back in May.
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