The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

Chen bombed in Spring Training, though, leaving Yost no choice but to name Mendoza a starter. If Yost made that decision based on Spring stats then he made the right move for the wrong reason, because really, it wasn’t that tough a decision when you think about it.

• Mendoza is almost six years younger than Chen. Yes, Chen has a more established track record but the older a player gets the less reliable his track record becomes. I read once that careers don’t take the field. I don’t believe that’s true of players in their prime, but of those on the down slope of their career, it’s absolutely spot on.
• Chen is in the final of year his contract while Mendoza can still help future Royals’ teams. Mendoza shouldn’t be penalized because Dayton Moore mistakenly gave Chen a two year after the 2011 season. He makes the Royals better now, and if he can perform as well as he did last year, that’s one less question mark going forward.

April 15, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Mendoza still has to prove the 3.83 ERA he put up over his final 20 starts wasn’t a fluke. I think even something in the 4.00-4.25 neighborhood would be acceptable. In years past, a guy coming off a 97 ERA+ would start the season opener. Now, he barely makes the rotation. If that’s not a sign of an improved rotation then I don’t know what is.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Speculation started about a potential trade (as teams like the Mets are being hit by injuries and could use some arms to help fill in), but finally, VP of Media and Broadcasting Mike Swanson tweeted that Chen would be the team’s long reliever and Luis Mendoza would be the Royals fifth starter to open the year. The move was later confirmed by the official team Twitter account.

Camp opened up with Chen, Luke  Hochevar and Mendoza fighting for the fifth starter spot. Hochevar was sent to the bullpen last week but it still seemed like the Royals favored Chen – and his $4.5 million salary – over Mendoza. After a strong winter ball season, Mendoza had a 0.82 ERA in 11 spring innings and had walked just two batters with the Royals. Chen, by contrast, had surrendered 12 earned runs in 13.2 innings and gave up seven homers. Arizona isn’t the best environment for him as a fly ball pitcher, and perhaps, like last year, he was working on a few things, but the performance was so stark that the Royals made the call to go with Mendoza.

Chen to the bullpen could impact other decisions. While he isn’t a specialist against lefties, it may compel the Royals to stick with a right-hander when choosing their last relief pitcher, meaning Louis Coleman, J.C. Gutierrez, or Dan Wheeler (on a minor league deal) could win that job. That would shut out Donnie Joseph and Francisley Bueno. Both lefties have thrown well this spring, but both have options.

That being said, at the time of the demotion, there were essentially four candidates elligible for the 5th spot in the rotation. Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, and Yordano Ventura are all getting a good look. Granted, most individuals think it would be a long shot for Ventura to jump the other three to get the spot. I think the same goes for Will Smith, though he’s looked good in limited time this spring. That means that the two frontrunners for the position were and are Chen and Mendoza.

And Chen may have very well played himself out of those talks on Saturday.

After a debacle of a 1st inning where Bruce gave up 3 home runs, including one to ex-Royal David Dejesus, Chen ended up throwing 92 pitches, giving up 7 runs and 5 home runs. In fact, Chen has given up 7 home runs and 12 earned runs in 13.2 innings.

Now the caveat of spring training stats is exactly that….it’s spring training. But it’s not like Chen has a proven track record to look at over the last few season to give us assurance.

So why should he get the 5-spot instead of Luis Mendoza? Mendoza had a decent second half last year and (knock on wood) couldn’t be any worse than Chen.

It speaks to the difference in this year that we can have a discussion over whether Chen or Mendoza should be our 5th starter. In all honesty, I’m not TOO concerned about who’s taking the bump in that spot. (As long as it won’t be Hochevar)

So what do you think? Has Chen played his way out of a rotation spot? Or do you think his most recent outing won’t matter?

But that doesn’t mean that we can’t look at how best to leverage that fifth spot.

September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Bruce Chen has put in some decent years as a starter for the Royals, getting by on guile and finesse. Luke Hochevar is the well-documented enigma, but the good games are usually really good (although the bad ones are really bad). Luis Mendoza is on the outside looking in. None of the three are ideal fits for a rotation spot.

So what’s a team to do?

I have to give credit to someone else for this potential solution. Last weekend, the Kansas City Baseball Vault helped present a showing of Major League at the Screenland Armour. Before we started the movie, though, we threw it out to the attendees who might have questions about the Royals. One gentleman pitched this idea:

Platoon Chen and Hochevar.

Aside from the handedness advantages, the idea is that there are enough splits and metrics to figure out where a pitcher could have an advantage – which stadiums, against which types of hitters –  so why sit on one guy as your main option every fifth game when you can swap them out?

It’s unconventional, which is likely why it’ll never happen. Baseball is much more old-fashioned than most other major sports. If the baseball thought process was applied to basketball, Magic Johnson never runs the point for the Lakers (nor does Lebron James). Football offenses would be trapped in the “three yards and a cloud of dust” mentality rather than the open, spread offenses of today. While pitch counts are limited and innings are monitored, that’s hardly a radical step in baseball evolution. That’s just protecting the business investment and not necessarily something that benefits performance on the field.

Like any different idea, there are benefits and downsides.

September 24, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

One benefit is that rather than sitting on 30 starts from Hochevar, he might instead make 15 or 10. Less times on the mound should mean that Hochevar has less chances to hurt the team with bad starts (and even if all 10 are bad, well, at least it’s just those 10). Team less likely to hit homers? Maybe you put Chen out there. Are they a team prone to striking out? Hochevar has better swing and miss stuff. If they’re a ground ball hitting team, Mendoza’s a good fit for that matchup.

It could even go so far as digging into which home plate umpires have tendency to call a game more towards a pitcher’s strengths.

If a pitcher is cruising, they can go deeper into the game on the idea that they can be skipped the next time out. Each of the three will throw less innings and won’t be overworked, so depth remains intact. The Royals seem committed to opening the season with Mendoza and one of Chen or Hochevar as long relief options as it is, so why not just rotate them? Any of the three can start a game and the other two can be the long relief options behind them. If there’s a meltdown in progress, they can change gears right away rather than fight through.

Pitchers knowing they don’t have to try to stretch out to seven innings may throw harder, get a little more out of their stuff. They just go out and throw, rather than trying to ration their pitch counts. They can use all of their weapons because they only face a lineup twice and don’t have to hold something back for that third time through. In 2012, Hochevar and Mendoza followed the pattern of the rest of the league by performing better the first two times through the lineup than the third. Chen was worse against a lineup the first time through in 2012 but over the course of his career, he’s in the same boat as the others.

In a way, this three-headed monster approach isn’t much different than what the Colorado Rockies tried to do last season. With difficulties from their starters, they switched to a four man rotation and set 75 pitch limits on all starters. They also applied a piggy-backing element so that after the pitch limit, they’d shift to the next reliever who would be on a similar pitch count. The idea is to have pitchers face batters twice through the lineup and then switch to a new arm.

August 6, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

League-wide, pitchers generally do better the first two times through a lineup (and relievers especially the first time they face a team). This takes advantage of that fact. Then again, you have to consider that a team trying such approach probably doesn’t have the starters who can mow through a lineup three or four times, and the pitchers who can’t supplant the sub-par starters are probably not great either. So piggy-backing isn’t something you’ll see often unless the teams are very bad.

In the Royals case, they’re comfortable with their top four starters. That means it could only be a modified piggy-back approach. Rather than lining up a full staff of long relief guys who happen to start, it’s really just tweaking the last spot in the rotation. For the Royals, perhaps that would be beneficial considering they have Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland at their disposal as well. If they can get to the seventh inning with a lead, they should be okay. If it takes choosing the right starter and following them up with a long reliever, maybe that can work.

Theoretically, it’s an interesting solution. It turns a negative (Hochevar has his meltdown inning, Chen doesn’t have the stuff to dominate most nights, Mendoza’s not a control or strikeout specialist) into a positive. Limit the exposure of your worst starters and get the most out of their skills when the situation calls for it. Keep it fluid and allow for an escape anytime someone gets on a roll, of course. No need to be a slave to the idea if someone breaks out.

Of course, there are the downsides. First, if there’s no clear winner of a fifth spot, then nobody’s risen to the top and none of the three are strong options. It’s still marching out Chen, Hochevar or Mendoza. The cast of characters is the same, just used in different ways.

More variables come up. If the rest of the rotation doesn’t need a long reliever, you might go 8-10 days between starts for somebody and the disruption of a program may limit their effectiveness. We’ve all seen pitchers who have extended rest and come back too strong and don’t have the command.

Some additional problems arise. Will a pitcher be able to prepare properly by shifting roles so often? They should be able to, but many need the routine. There’s also the human element. Everyone has to buy in. Mendoza is approaching arbitration and Chen and Hochevar should be free agents next winter. They’ll want the innings and wins to show up on their resumes.

Now, if the Royals do nothing, some of these issues may still apply. They’re professionals and they’ll say the right things, but none of them will be happy being the long relief options when the season starts. Moving in and out of that role shouldn’t please them either. They could still find themselves with long stretches without getting into a game, depending on when a long reliever is necessary (or not). Theoretically, though, the Royals expect James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Santana and Wade Davis to be solid in their starting roles, so one can assume that they expect about six innings a start from the quartet. That leaves the Royals with that fifth spot reserved for long relief help as it is, so they’re in the same kind of situation.

I should be clear – I don’t think the Royals will try this idea out and I don’t know how well it would work, but the ideas seems like something that could be worth attempting. If there’s a team that will try it, though, it’s probably not the Royals. Ned Yost isn’t opposed to new ideas. He’s stated that using a closer more as a fireman makes sense. He’s also said that, while it makes sense, he’s not going to be the guy to try the theory out.

However, after looking over projections, it struck me that Will Smith fits in nicely as a starting rotation option relative to others. To this point, we know what Bruce Chen will be. He’ll have some good games. He’ll have some bad ones. He’ll settle in nicely as a #5 starter if he can get through six innings a start and get a quality start most times out. That’s fine. It’s bland, it’s uninspired, but it’s fine. There’s not a lot of upside to starting Bruce Chen. The league isn’t going to be surprised by Bruce Chen.

Similarly, Hochevar’s struggles for consistency have been well-documented here as well as in the traditional media. The only sort of consistency he has is his inconsistency. It’s maddening. He’s a former number one overall pick. He’s shown the ability to have fantastic starts at times. Starts that get everyone back on the bandwagon. But it’s difficult to trust what he can do. Plus, he’ll turn 30 this season, so that does limit some of his upside. I suppose it’s not too late, but who can blame a guy for being highly skeptical?

Jul 24, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Will Smith (53) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Knowing how the Royals operate, they’ll give either of those two the first crack at the last spot in the rotation. But Smith should get a look if either falters. Overall, his 2012 numbers look rough. His big league debut in Yankee Stadium went poorly after he gave up three homers in 3.1 innings. He followed that up with a good second showing, but gave up another three homers to the Minnesota Twins on June 4 and with the Royals playing starting pitcher roulette, he was sent back to Omaha with a 9.00 big league ERA.

He gave up another nine runs in 10.1 innings over his next two starts once he returned to Triple A.

Some were claiming that throwing him into the fire of Yankee Stadium intimidated him. Broke his confidence. Maybe there was a bit of that going on – Smith gets hit hard in New York, gets sent down, tries to make it up. Maybe he tries too hard and it follows him to Triple A. But after his shaky return to Omaha, he sorted things back out. Over four starts from June 26 to July 13, Smith threw 27.2 innings, struck out 29, walked only five and gave up just four earned runs. He earned his way back to the majors.

Once he made it back, Smith went right back into the starting rotation and stayed there through the end of the season. He made it through at least six innings in eight of his final thirteen starts and over that return stretch had an ERA of 4.64 (and a full season ERA of 5.32). Not great, of course, but the second stretch gives hope that he can be productive. Smith is only 23 years old and turns 24 in July. In the minors, he showed good control (2.1 BB/9) and could harness it again going forward. He’s been able to get ground balls throughout his professional career and has a decent record (in the minors) of keeping the ball in the park (and after he returned to Kansas City, he gave up only six more homers in 75.2 innings after July 19.

The Royals like Smith’s makeup and if he can progress a little, he should at least equal a potential contribution of Hochevar or Chen. He outperformed Hochevar’s ERA last season as it is and wasn’t far off from Chen’s 5.07. Right now, the choice might look like Hochevar or Chen, but it doesn’t have to be.

I don’t expect Smith to break out of spring training and win a spot in the rotation. This is where roster trickery steps in. Smith has two options left, and unless there’s an injury or he vastly outperforms Chen and Hochevar in Surprise, he’ll start the year in Triple A where he can pitch on a regular schedule, but he’ll probably be the first starter called up if an opening comes up. Last year was the first season in which Chen surpassed 190 innings since 2005. Hochevar isn’t reliable (as the next terrible start is always lurking) and should be on a short leash. Luis Mendoza could step in, but the Royals seem content to stick with him in a long relief role. That makes Smith an easy option in that situation.

By the end of the 2013, season, Smith should be installed in the rotation. If he can progress, he may not be much more than a fourth starter on most teams, but league-average starters who can throw 200 innings a year are plenty valuable. Smith fits that bill nicely.

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen (52) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

In 2009, Chen made one start for Panama, but the team lost both of its games and didn’t go any further. The full tournament lasts less than three weeks, so while Chen’s preparation for 2013 will be slightly interrupted, but it shouldn’t hurt him too much as he gets ready, but it might leave an opening for another starter to sneak into the fifth spot in the rotation. China’s not considered a favorite, so he could end up making one start as in 2009 and being back in Arizona, maybe getting some of his work bumped by a few days.

He’s a veteran and the Royals have an idea of what he’ll be able to do once he’s in camp full time and going into the season.

Other Royals involved in the WBC include:

• Cheslor Cuthbert, who went 4-8 in Nicaragua’s two games in the qualifying round. Despite his efforts (which included a home run), Nicaragua didn’t qualify for the 2013 tournament. He finished 2012 in Wilmington and remains among the Royals top prospects at the age of 20.
• Paulo Orlando helped Brazil qualify by going 4-12 and scoring three times at the top of the lineup. He may get a chance to face Chen, as China and Brazil are in the same Pool. Orlando made it to Triple A in 2011 but spent all of 2012 in Double A Northwest Arkansas. At 27 years old, he’s minor league depth, and was beaten by Yan Gomes (Toronto Blue Jays) as the first Brazilian to reach the majors.
• Luis Piterson finished 2012 in Wilmington but made just one plate appearance for Colombia. He struck out.
• Sugar Ray Marimon made one start for Colombia, working five innings and giving up just one run – the home run hit by Cheslor Cuthbert – in his team’s only win in the qualifiers.

Here’s footage of that homer:

Other rosters for qualifying teams will be announced later this week, but there haven’t been many hints that other Royals will end up recruited to the WBC.

• Can Jonathan Sanchez discover his pre-2011 form?
• Can Luke Hochevar carry over a great second half into 2012?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Danny Duffy take a John Danks type step in his second season?
• Can Felipe Paulino prove that his 2011 season was legit?

The bottom two questions never got answered thanks to injuries but the answers to the first three were no, no and no. But you know all this and really don’t care to be reminded of the 2012 rotation’s historical mediocrity. I don’t blame you, but moving forward, we see not a lot has changed.

The 2013 rotation, barring a trade, is basically set and the question marks that existed before 2012 are still there.

• Can Ervin Santana discover his pre-2012 form?
• Can Jeremy Guthrie carry over a great second half into 2013?
• Can Bruce Chen be a league average starting pitcher?
• Can Luis Mendoza prove that his 2012 season was legit?

Eerie, isn’t it.

I haven’t really declared one way or another my opinions on the Santana and Guthrie deals. That’s because I keep flip flopping on whether I like them or not. There are reasons to like and dislike both of these moves. Santana and Guthrie will be paid  a combined 37 million dollars over the next three seasons and I just can’t help but wondering if that money should have gone to a more elite starting pitcher.

September 7, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Once again Dayton Moore jumped in with both feet before the market had a chance to set itself. Craig Brown is spot on when he discusses why this is “ultimately a flawed strategy“. Criticize Craig’s negativity if you must but he predicted that Sanchez would be train wreck when a lot of people (myself included) were cautiously optimistic.

The flip side, of course, is that you can throw all the money you want at free agents but you can’t make them pick it up. If Moore waits too long then he could miss out altogether and we’d be forced to watch a rotation that contained both Hochevar and Chris Volstad. I don’t know about you but I had nightmares about such a scenario.

Again, there are reasons to like and dislike the two deals. Santana and Guthrie have decent track records so it wouldn’t come as a great shock if both put up 200 inning, 110 ERA+ seasons. If that happens I expect the Royals to flirt with contention. Of course that’s contingent on the offense remembering how to hit, which I believe they will.

As for the last two questions above, I’m more optimistic that Chen will approach league average than Mendoza, and I base that solely on their respective SO/BB numbers. I like what Mendoza accomplished when he re-entered the rotation (122.1 IP, 3.83 ERA) but I’m not sure he can do that over the course of a full season. As of right now though, I have no problem with him occupying the rotation’s fourth or fifth spot.

Oct 1, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen (52) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Before this year there was only one season in team history where a pitcher tossed 185+ innings with an ERA+ below 85. One season from 1969-2011, and that was Larry Gura, in 1983 (200.1 IP, 83 ERA+). Now there are three. Bruce Chen (191.2, 81) and Luke Hochevar(185.1, 71) are now card carrying members of this club. Overall, Chen was actually just the third 35 year old left-hander since 1901 to have such a season. Gura and Hall of Famer Rube Marquard (198, 78 in 1922) are the other two. While Gura was even worse at 36 years old (77 ERA+) Marquard was much better, posting a 106 ERA+ in 1923. I’m still not a fan of Chen’s but I think his SO/BB numbers suggest he’s legitimate bounce back candidate (as in bounce back to league average).

Luis Mendoza exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations and pitched 166 innings. He was better than Chen and Hochevar but was still below league average. This means that the Royals had three players pitch 162+ innings with ERA+’s less than 100. It’s not an uncommon occurrence overall, they’re the 17th team to accomplish this since 2002, but it had never happened before in Kansas City.

Mendoza performed better than I thought he would but I’m not going to be eating any crow. I maintained that he would be unsuccessful if he didn’t strike more people out. He also walked entirely too many hitters to thrive as a pitch to contact guy. Success came this year when his SO/9 went up and his BB/9 went down. Well maybe I’ll have a small slice since I didn’t think he had it in him to drastically improve his SO and BB rates. He did. Splitting his season in two shows the differences.

4/9 – 6/23: 60 IP, 4.5 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9, 4.95 ERA
6/29 – 10/3: 106 IP, 6.28 SO/9, 2.46 BB/9, 3.82 ERA

If Mendoza can carry those second set of numbers into 2013 he would slot nicely into the back end of the rotation. It’s somewhat similar to the song we sang with Hochevar last winter so there is reason for pessimism.

Innings often fail to tell the whole story because if a pitcher is bad enough he’ll be bounced from the rotation. We’ve seen this many, many times this century (Chris George, anyone?) So ignoring innings, and looking at games started, we find that for the second consecutive season the Royals had five pitchers start 10+ games and end the season below league average. Only the 2006 team had more. Will Smith and Jonathan Sanchez join Chen, Hochevar and Mendoza on this list. Those five pitchers accounted for 73% of the starts this year.

And that, my friends, is how you lose 90 games in a season.

July 8, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Everett Teaford (61) is one of the pitchers who make up the revolving door known as the Royals starting staff. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Apparently, it’s important to strike hitters out without walking that many. Can we check to see if the Royals starters have gotten this memo? MLB.com posted an article yesterday explaining that this year’s strikeout to walk ratio is at its highest since 1884. That’s right 1884, not 1984. Back when Willie Nelson first started owing the IRS a ton of money and Teddy Roosevelt rode a dinosaur during his charge on Hitler’s bunker (I minored in revisionist history).

The SO/BB ratio is super high: 2.42. That means on average pitchers get 2.42 strikeouts for every walk. So, for a game if a pitcher has three walks seven or eight strikeouts. The upturn, seems to reflect a trend in pitching evaluation. Nowadays, with the prominence of statistical analysis, sabermetrics, and an emphasis on peripheral statistics for pitchers, more people are searching for strikeout pitchers, with the hopes of lowering their walk numbers if need be.

I think many people, and I count myself among them, look at the strikeout and the walk as polar opposites (even if they’re really not it’s easiest to understand them as such). A strikeout guarantees the hitter will not get on base (as opposed to a ball in play). A walk guarantees the runner will reach base (again as opposed to a ball in play). What a high SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is controlling that game in the positive. What a really low SO/BB ratio means is that the pitcher is also controlling that game in the negative.* If a pitcher has low strikeouts and low walks, they are kind of abdicating control of the game … kind of.

*Please note that I do believe the pitcher controls batted balls to a degree, but let us assume for the moment that he does not.

When I read the article on MLB.com, I wanted to see how the Royals’ pitchers are controlling the game with regards to their SO/BB ratio. As a team, the Royals’ SO-BB ratio is 2.08, which is below league average by a significant amount. A small section of the problem is that the Royals don’t strike that many guys out, 17th in MLB with 808. The big problem is that they walk way to many hitters, fifth most MLB with 388. Part of that was a certain terrible pitcher named Jonathan Sanchez (44 BB in 53 IP), but part of it is the high walk rates of Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Luis Mendoza, and the sometimes starters like Will Smith, Everett Teaford, and Danny Duffy.

Looking at the data, the picture is a little fuzzy but seems to point to the fact that Royals pitchers are not controlling the game in a positive way. Of their current starters, only Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie have a SO-BB ratio better than league average (and they both serve meat balls with high HR/9 and BABIP numbers to prove it). Mendoza, the teams best starter for the last couple months, has a frightening 1.5 SO-BB ratio, but is saved by low HR/9 totals and good ground ball numbers. Smith also has frightening SO-BB numbers at 1.70.

In comparison, the best pitchers in the AL hang out from 3.70-4.00 for their SO-BB ratio: Justin Verlander (4.05), Jered Weaver (3.75), Felix Hernandez (3.70), Chris Sale (3.91). Right now, the Royals have none of these types of pitchers (not even Duffy as he has been so far). Guys like Mendoza, pitchers who keep the ball low and get a lot of weak groundballs, can work as fourth and fifth starters. But to compete at a playoff level, the Royals need pitchers who can be in the 3.70-4.00 range with their SO-BB ration. And those guys can’t be anomalies like Guthrie who are in the zone all the time but only to the hitter’s delight.

Looking down the road, it doesn’t look that much better. Jake Odorizzi’s got a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, which isn’t very good. Again, he strikes out a fair amount but walks too many (gives up too many hits as well). Kyle Smith in Low A has been good at 4.5 SO/BB, but that’s Low A. Yordano Ventura is another pitcher who could use fewer walks; he’s struggled since being called up to AA.

Right now, it looks pretty grim, especially if you believe that the Royals need someone who can serve as an ace, which I do. But we’ll see. Duffy has that potential if he stops walking so many hitters. Kyle’s Smith and Zimmer have that potential I think. But potential can’t play a game. It can’t win a pennant. When it can, the Royals will be set.

*All data from Aug. 11, 2012

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Alex Gordon will look to continue his recent hot streak as the Royals visit Seattle for the only time this season. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

As mentioned the M’s were at the K just last week when they took three of four against Kansas City. Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki earlier this week to the New York Yankees, who went 7-for-20 with five runs scored, one double and triple.

Season Series …

Ichiro wasn’t the only Mariner to hurt the Royals last week left fielder Casper Wells drove in seven runs over the four game series. Jesus Montero was 8-for-17 scoring five runs plus drove in eight runs against KC. Pitching wise the M’s got solid efforts from three of their four starters which was capped by Felix Hernandez eight inning performance.

In the opener Seattle put the final nail in the Jonathan Sanchez coffin scoring five first inning runs and knocking him out after an inning and a third. Jason Vargas went six innings allowing three runs but was picked up by his ‘pen allowing one run over the final three innings. Alex Gordon had three hits with Mike Moustakas providing two in the 9-4 defeat.

Game two was similar to game one with the Royals not getting a long outing from its starter when Ryan Verdugo made his MLB debut and only went 1 2/3 innings. Verdugo allowed six runs on eight hits in his rough debut. KC fought back from a six-run deficit twice in the game but ultimately lost 9-6, Lorenzo Cain had a two-run pinch hit home run.

Kansas City fell behind 1-0 in game three but tagged Kevin Millwood for three runs in the second inning. Gordon and Cain each drove in two runs and six of the seven Royals starters drove in a run in the 8-7 win, Bruce Chen took a no-decision. Billy Butler was the hero in the game with a walkoff HR to left centerfield.

Will Smith gave KC a 6 1/3 inning start which he struck out five walking just two in what was largely a good start. Facing King Felix proved difficult even with Kansas City getting eight hits, they were 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and grounded into two double plays. Montero drove in four runs in the Mariners 6-1 victory.

7/16 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 4
7/17 – Mariners 9 @ Royals 6
7/18 – Mariners 7 @ Royals 8
7/19 – Mariners 6 @ Royals 1

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Thursday, 9:10 pm – Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31) v. Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91)
- Mendoza picked up his first victory at home on Saturday night against the Twins going 6 1/3 well pitched innings in a 7-3 win.
- In his career he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA against Seattle in four games which includes one start.
- Vargas has won his last three starts and has been given run support of 7 (at Oak), 9 (at KC) and 2 (at TB) runs in these starts. He hasn’t won at home since May 9, 2-1 against Detroit at Safeco Field.
Friday, 9:10 pm – Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 6.49)  v. Blake Beavan (5-6, 5.54)
- Guthrie made his Royals debut on Sunday at home against the Twins allowing five runs in five innings, striking out four and walking three.
- He’s faced the Mariners ten times with each appearance being a start, his record is 2-6 both wins were complete games.
- Beavan threw last week at the K picking up the win going six innings, he allowed five runs and struck out three.
Saturday, 3:10 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.54) v. Kevin Millwood (3-8, 4.13)
- Chen’s last start came in the third game of the series last week in which he got the ND throwing 5 1/3 innings. He allowed four runs on seven hits striking out six without issuing a walk.
- Last week was the first time in his career that Bruce faced the M’s.
- Millwood got rocked in during his five innings at Kansas City last week which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits. On June 8^th he was part of a combined no-hitter for the team against the Dodgers in Seattle.
Sunday, 3:10 pm – Will Smith (2-3, 6.26) v. Felix Hernandez (9-5, 2.80)
- Smith started Tuesday night in Anaheim going seven innings in the Royals 4-1 victory allowing just two-hits.
- He’ll get another shot at King Felix who he faced in the series finale last week where he worked into the seventh inning before being pulled.
- Hernandez like Smith pitched and won on Tuesday night the only game of the previous series for his team. Against the Yankees he went 7 1/3 innings allowed four hits and two runs.

Royals fans are appreciating Luis Mendoza. (Photo Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

Before the season began, the Royals were making a decision between Luis Mendoza, 2011 Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year, and Felipe Paulino, who was arguably the best Royals starter in 2011. For many, the decision was simple: Paulino was better. For others, like myself, it was a bit tougher. And that’s what the Royals faced as well. They saw the Mendoza that made huge strides forward and looked like a different pitcher from previous years. With Mendoza out of options, the Royals were concerned about letting him get away, a la Philip Humber the year before.

Well, Paulino went out with an injury and Mendoza took the fifth starting spot, joining Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Danny Duffy in the Royals rotation. In his first four starts, Mendoza threw 18.0 innings and compiled a 6.00 ERA. He was quickly moved to the bullpen, making one spot start in May, and was just so-so in his six appearances between May 6 and June 6, putting together an ERA of 4.91 over 25.2 innings. It seemed that Mendoza might be nearing his end in Royal blue, as he didn’t see many outings.

When the Royals needed another starter for their June 12 game against Milwaukee, they called on Mendoza, and he hasn’t relinquished the starting role. Since that start, Mendoza has a 3.27 ERA over 44.0 innings in seven starts. He’s only pitched fewer than six innings once, which is essentially the opposite of now-Rockie Sanchez. And he’s the Royals’ second-best starter since June 8, after Hochevar (3.06 ERA in eight starts) and above Chen (7.42 ERA in 9 starts). He’s become a valuable member of a fledgling pitching staff.

And some people didn’t even want him around.

We could never see the injuries coming. It’s not predictable. You can suspect, but you can’t know. And having those insurance pitchers around is potentially the most valuable part of having depth on your team. It allows you the flexibility to fill holes and find the best fits in certain situations.

In this situation, the best fit has been Luis Mendoza. I know not everyone will agree, but at this point there’s no reason to not have Mendoza in the rotation for the rest of the year. I was at the K to see his start on Saturday night, and I can say that I was impressed at his ability to induce grounders from the Twins’ (admittedly weak) lineup. It’s always good to see that ability.

So, enjoy Mendoza. He’s pitching well, which is something that’s seemingly hard to come by in Kansas City. If we have to ride him and Hochevar through the rest of the year, it seems we’re in good hands based on what we’ve seen lately. Let’s hope that’s true.

I’m just happy to see Mendoza pitch like I hoped he would. Welcome to the Royals’ starting rotation, Luis Mendoza. Keep fighting for that spot.

Will Hosmer have another series like he did last time the Royals played the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

KC and LAA haven’t seen each other since the first week of the season when the Royals took two-of-three against the Angels. Los Angeles won the opening game before Kansas City took the next two, my how things have changed during the year for both franchises during the season.

Season Series …

In the season opener LA won 5-0 in a well pitched game from Bruce Chen but it was Jared Weaver who got the win as Aaron Crow took the loss. Erick Aybar hurt the boys in blue driving in three runs during the five run eighth which was the difference in game one.

The next day Kansas City touched up Dan Haren en route to a 6-3 victory evening up the series. Jeff Francoeur went 2-for-4 driving in two, Eric Hosmer batting in the third spot was 2-for-5 which he scored twice with an RBI. Not to be forgotten Luke Hochevar went 6 1/3 innings allowing two runs with four strikeouts.

Easter was the last time these teams played with the Royals beating the Angels 7-3 moving to 2-1. KC struck Ervin Santana for three runs in the highlighted by Billy Butler hitting a two-run homer that brought in Hosmer. Country Breakfast and Hos combined for six of the seven runs Kansas City scored, Jonathan Sanchez picked up the win to show how long ago this was.

4/6 – Royals 0 @ Angels 5
4/7 – Royals 6 @ Angels 3
4/8 – Royals 7 @ Angels 3

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 9:05 pm – Bruce Chen (7-8, 5.57) v. C.J. Wilson (9-6, 2.82)
- Chen has two no-decisions in his last two starts for the Royals
- In his last start against the Mariners he left the game after 5 1/3 innings when Ned Yost might of left him in too long. Chen struckout six, allowing four runs on seven hits.
- Wilson who came over from the Rangers in the offseason will be facing the Royals for the first time this season. In his career he’s 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA against Kansas City in 13 career appearances.
Saturday, 9:05 pm – Will Smith (1-3, 7.97) v. Garrett Richards (3-1, 3.53)
- Smith who was drafted by the Angels in the seventh round of the 2008 draft will face his original team for the first time.
- Last week against the M’s he went 6 1/3 innings taking the loss giving up four runs on eight hits. He did strike out five walking just two Seattle hitters.
- Richards three wins have come against the Mariners, Diamondbacks and most recently the Tigers last week in Detroit. He went seven innings allowing three hits, striking out two with four walks.
Sunday, 2:25 pm – Luke Hochevar (6-8, 4.91) v. Jered Weaver (10-1, 2.20)
- Hochevar like Chen has no-decisions in his last two starts but the impressive stat is how he’s gone at least five innings in each of his last eight starts.
- Luke went seven innings against Minnesota on Friday night which the Royals lost 2-1 in 11 innings but struck out six without a walk allowing just a run.
- Weaver was masterful on Opening Night against KC and his only loss came on May 13 at Texas. Like Hochevar he went seven innings on Friday but picked up his 10^th win against the Rangers in Anaheim.

The Royals had a 5-3 lead when Bruce Chen took the mound to start the fifth inning. He gave up a single, got two flyouts and then A.J. Pierzynski hit a line drive up the middle. The Royals sent pitching coach Dave Eiland to talk to Chen but it did no good. On the second pitch, Dayan Viciedo golfed a homer to left-center to give Chicago the lead.

Now, it was a tough pitch to hit and Chen didn’t make a mistake. Viciedo hit one out he could have easily let go, but Chen wasn’t sharp most of the start, either.

Ned Yost said later he could have pulled Chen earlier in the game or, if it were the sixth inning, the second hit would have been his last batter. He admitted that with it being the fifth, he wanted to leave Chen in to get the third out and qualify for the win. In doing so, the Royals fell behind, and, despite some scraping and clawing to tie the game and retake the lead, ultimately lost in the 14th inning.

I get it. Yost wanted to get his veteran the win in his stat column. It’s not the first time a manager has done so, and it won’t be the last.

But it really should be the last, and here’s why:

Pitcher wins don’t tell the whole story. They tell you that a pitcher was in the game when his team took the lead and he was the earliest pitcher to appear with that lead. Usually, it’s a starter. But a pitcher win doesn’t tell you the quality of a pitcher’s appearance. It doesn’t qualify that he may have walked six batters and gave up six runs but because his team scored seven, he’s the winner. It only tells you who was on the mound when that team had the lead.

Fast forward to the bottom of the ninth. Billy Butler hits a chopper that somehow gets him on second base. Jarrod Dyson pinch runs. If Dyson is able to steal third, or the Royals were able to get a base hit, or he finds any way to score, the Royals win in walk-off fashion. The pitcher who would have “earned” the win would have been Jonathan Broxton.

Nevermind that Broxton blew the lead in pursuit of another misleading stat, the save.

Here’s what a save tells you: a pitcher finished the game and held a lead that was one, two or three runs. Of course, baseball has turned the save into something only closers can get. Nobody else pitches with the lead in the ninth but the closer. Unless they fail spectacularly, that role isn’t changed. Often that’s the best reliever on the team, but sometimes it’s just a guy who’s been a closer before and has the “closer’s mentality”.

Broxton didn’t have it last night. He’s often not had it. Kevin Youkilis singled on the second pitch to lead off. Broxton has allowed 13 of 32 batters leading off to reach base – that’s a .406 on base percentage. So 40% of the time, the leadoff batter reaches against Broxton.

Last night, the single was the least of his concerns. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios walked on four pitches each. So the bases are loaded. There’s nobody out, Broxton is on the brink of disaster. If it were a remote incident, I don’t mind chalking it up to one night after a long break being an issue, but this is a consistent problem with Broxton – he allows too many baserunners.

Broxton drew some support from fans during the All-Star Final Vote. The idea was that, with 20 saves in (then) 23 opportunities, that he was doing his job. While I can’t refute that he eventually got the saves, can anybody feel confident when he comes into a game? How much is on Broxton and how much is just on getting away with it? Last night, for instance, Broxton should have given up the go-ahead run, but a strong throw from Jeff Francoeur, a great effort by Salvador Perez, and a little helpful umpiring turned a run into an out.

Broxton has had ten appearances where he faced three batters and recorded three outs. In only three of those outings has he done so without putting on a runner.

Would anyone’s feelings have been hurt if Yost had brought in Tim Collins or Louis Coleman after the second walk?

I’d like to think that these are isolated problems. But Broxton hasn’t been sharp most of the year and expecting him to keep putting on so many baserunners and maintaining an ERA anywhere near where it is now (2.20) is foolish. It will catch up to him at some point and Yost needs to be ready to play for the team win rather than keeping Broxton just because he’s the “closer”. Fangraphs has Broxton’s FIP at 3.52 and his xFIP at 4.15. I think that’s a lot closer to where he’ll end up than where his ERA is now. He’s stepped into a tough situation. He’s trying to be the same player he was before injury and he’s following Joakim Soria.

Chen has given up six runs in seven of his 19 starts (and four of his last six). He’s given up two or less runs in seven of his 19 starts as well. He’s hit or miss – and you can usually tell by the third inning which it is. Last night, he gave up two homers and three runs in the first inning. The homer against Viciedo was a tough break (because, again, it wasn’t like Chen threw a pitch right down the pipe – it was down and out of the zone), but putting two on and with Chen’s struggles recently, Yost acknowledged after the fact that he should have pulled Chen. Kelvin Herrera was ready in the bullpen.

For the want of that pitcher win, Chen made one more pitch and the game changed.

Maybe next time, Yost will decide if it’s better to ignore the pitcher’s win column if it means the team’s increases by one.

Vin Mazzaro gets the start in the opener against the Cardinals as the I-70 Series shifts to Kauffman Stadium this weekend. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Records: St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) @ Kansas City Royals (31-36)

Season Series: Royals 2-1 (won series in St. Louis June 15-17)
June 15 – Kansas City 3-2               WP: V. Mazzaro                LP: K. Lohse        S: J. Broxton
June 16 – St. Louis 10-7                   WP: M. Boggs                    LP: T. Collins       S: J. Motte
June 17 – Kansas City 5-3 F/15     WP: J. Broxton                 LP: E. Sanchez

Recap of last weekend: In game one the Royals took a 3-0 lead on the Cardinals before St. Louis scored twice in the seventh innings. Jonathan Broxton had an adventurous ninth before Mike Moustakas threw out Tyler Green at home to end the game. On Saturday the Cardinals won 10-7, the home team roughed up Bruce Chen taking a 6-1 lead after two innings. KC stormed by scoring the next six-runs taking a 7-6 lead in the seventh before the Redbirds countered with three in the bottom of the inning. The finale on Father’s Day went 15-innings with the Royals winning 5-3 when Yuniesky Betancourt hit a two-run homer in the top of the fifteenth inning.

Since they last they met: KC went to Houston and took 2-of-3 against the Astros after losing the first game of the series. St. Louis traveled to Detroit in a rematch of the 2006 World Series but lost the series to the Tigers two games to one, winning the middle game.

Central Standings:
AL Central                                                           NL Central
Cleveland Indiana (36-32)                             Cincinnati Reds (38-30)
Chicago White Sox (36-33)           0.5          Pittsburgh Pirates (36-32)             2.0
Detroit Tigers (34-35)                     2.5          St. Louis Cardinals (35-35)             4.0
Kansas City Royals (31-26)            4.5          Milwaukee Brewers (32-37)        6.5
Minnesota Twins (27-41)              9.0          Houston Astros (28-41)                 10.5
Chicago Cubs (24-45)                      14.5

Sal is back!: Tonight Salvador Perez will make his 2012 season debut for the Kansas City Royals. In addition ex-Royal Carlos Beltran is back at the K for the first time but wearing red and white. Beltran in his career is a .299, with 60 homeruns, 268 RBIs and 95 stolen bases at the Kauffman Stadium.

Turning it around at home: Kansas City is 11-20 at home this season but did sweep the Brewers in their quick three-game home stand last week. Since starting 0-10, the Royals have played better winning six of their last nine at home.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Joe Kelly (0-0, 2.89) v. Vin Mazzaro (3-1, 2.57)
Saturday, 1:10 pm – Adam Wainwright (5-7, 4.46) v. Luis Mendoza (2-3, 4.69)
Sunday, 1:10 pm – Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.80) v. Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.70)

Who should be the scapegoat for another year of disappointing Royals baseball?  Whose head needs to roll as a result of the team’s poor showing?  Dayton Moore? Kevin Seitzer?  How about Rex Hudler?

Should Ned Yost be the scapegoat for what has been a disappointing season so far? (Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the interesting aspects of social media is that it provides a real time peek into the thoughts of hard core sports fans.  Every evening you can sit down at your computer and watch the commentary during the game.  One of the most frequent themes on Twitter has been that Ned Yost is to blame for this disappointing season and that he should be taken to the nearest bus terminal with a ticket to Anywherebuthere Town, USA.  But I say – not so fast.

Before I explain my thoughts, let’s take a peek into the world of social media and look at just a few of the many thousands of comments concerning Ned Yost:

• Aaron Stilley @Royal_Heritage – You may say Yost is a by-the-book manager, but today I saw him pioneer the use of a late inning defensive downgrade while leading!
• Scott Thomas @hosmermania – Ned Yost=Hank Hill. Old fashioned grumpy guy who hunts. Never does anything new. Very predictable.
• Mike Engel ‏@michaelengel – How many people in uniform were surprised by the bunt? One? The left field ball boy? #Yosted
• Josh Green ‏@Jashg84 - As long as Yost is in there, it will continue like this unfortunately
• 1Yankh8r ‏@1Yankh8r – Can’t wait to see how the Spin Doctors in the Yost camp sell last night’s debacle. #FireYost

#FireYost has become a popular hashtag.  So is #Yosted.  And fans are right to be upset.   Some of Yost’s decisions this season on the surface appear to be nearly inexplicable.  But let’s take a closer look.

I think the best way to judge a manager is to evaluate what he is doing with the talent he has been given.  For instance (I realize this is a very unrealistic example, but I’m trying to make a point), what if one participant in the Indy 500 was forced to ride a bicycle – how well do you think this person would do and where do you think he or she would finish?  You would expect him to finish last because the race wasn’t fair, he wasn’t given the same sleek expensive race car to drive as all the other competitors.  You know what I’m getting at, don’t you?

The Royals payroll is about $61 million.  That’s about $2.5 million per victory so far this year.  Wins are going for about $5 million each in Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) this year, and almost $6 million in Boston.  By comparison, if higher payroll means greater talent, then Ned Yost isn’t playing all that badly with the hand he’s been dealt.  The Rays do an awesome job at less than $2 million per victory.

Are the Royals going to bunt again?!? (Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE)

Still, how do you explain all the crazy managerial decisions Yost has made?  There have been times I’ve wanted to tear out what little hair I have left every time I watch Yuniesky Betancourt trot out to 2^nd base or yet another failed and ill-advised bunt attempt go awry.

The Royals have been caught stealing more than any other team in the American League except one.  This is pretty remarkable considering 10 teams (in the American League alone) have stolen more bases than the Royals.  Just imagine how bad this statistic would be if Jarrod Dyson hadn’t been playing recently.  Aren’t the Royals young and athletic?  Don’t most of them have average speed or better, with the possible exceptions of Billy Butler and Humberto (why did we trade for him again?) Quintero?  Are the coaches sending the green light at the wrong time?  Are the players using poor technique?

How many times this year have you seen a Royal caught napping and picked off the bases?  Many more times than I care to recall.  Is poor coaching to blame?

There are a couple schools of thought regarding a stable lineup.  Some people say it’s beneficial to a player to always know his role and where he’ll bat when he comes to the stadium.  Yost obviously didn’t attend this school.  Yost believes in juggling the lineup as if it were a bowling ball, a power saw, a flaming torch, and a butcher knife.  Unfortunately, when you play with fire, somebody is going to get burned.

I wish I knew why many of the Royals are slumping at the plate this year.  Is this Ned Yost’s fault?  Last year, Kevin Seitzer was considered to be a hitting guru on the level of Charlie Lau.  This year, Hosmer was unable to hit his way out of a paper bag for six weeks, Alex Gordon is on track for 12 home runs compared to 23 last year, and the team is trending toward scoring about 100 fewer runs than last season.  Is this Kevin Seitzer’s fault?  Is he not providing the same quality guidance and instruction as last year?

So how good are these Royals and how much talent does Ned Yost have to work with?  There’s really no way to know.  With acknowledgement that some may disagree with me, the 2012 Royals may have one of the major’s best defensive shortstops in Alcides Escobar, one of the best defensive catchers (when Salvador Perez returns – please hurry), the best defensive left fielder in Alex Gordon, the strongest outfield arm in Jeff Francoeur, possibly the major’s most improved player in 3^rd baseman Mike Moustakas, the player with the greatest potential in Eric Hosmer, the speediest bench player in Jarrod Dyson, one of the top hitters in a position loaded with talent, DH Billy Butler, the hardest throwing relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera, and a very capable bullpen. But without decent starting pitchers, there is simply no possible way to know how good this team is.

The pitching anchor of the 2012 Royals is Bruce Chen.  Just let that soak in for a moment.  On opening day this season, we sent Bruce Chen to the mound in Anaheim to face Jered Weaver.  Weaver was an All-Star and 2^nd in the Cy Young balloting last year.  Chen’s heater is about 84 mph.   The Royals brought a knife to a gunfight that day and they were shutout 5-0 in a swift 2 hours and 22 minutes, the 2^nd shortest game of the season – it was merciful and quick.  This isn’t the way you want to start a season and it set the tone for what was to come.

Bruce Chen is the Royals #1 pitcher. No really, I'm not kidding. (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I don’t blame Bruce Chen.  Bruce is a very likeable guy who gives it everything he has every time he walks to the mound.  But he shouldn’t be in a position where a team looks to him as the stopper.  Chen earns $4.5 million per year.  Weaver earns $14 million.  It’s like sending your funny cousin Joey into the ring to face Mohammed Ali in his prime every five days.  Who would do that?   Why are the Royals doing it?  It’s insane!  How can we blame Ned Yost for this injustice?

I believe it all boils down to pitching.  Pitching is the lifeblood of a baseball team.  Wins and losses begin with the guy who takes the mound in the 1^st inning.  Pitching holds the other team down, keeps your side in the game, and provides your teammates with a chance to win.  A baseball team simply cannot be successful without strong starting pitching.

When you watch a team play that has poor starting pitching (aka The Royals), anything else you see on the field is an attempt to make up for this shortcoming.  Everyone else must extend themselves and try to do things they aren’t capable of doing.  They must try to steal when the timing isn’t right.  They constantly bunt in a desperate attempt to move runners into scoring position.  They try to hit 6-run homers when nobody is on base.  The manager flip flops the lineup trying to find a winning combination that will overcome the lack of talent on the mound.  He’ll move the potential All-Star 1^st baseman into right field trying to squeeze one more drop of offense out of a team that must overcome a mishmash hodge podge rotation cobbled together from castoffs, 2^nd level trades, and Independent Leagues while waiting for the top prospect hurlers in the minors to one day, some day, fulfill their potential.

So, who’s fault is it that the Royals don’t have a major league caliber starting pitching rotation?  In my opinion, it isn’t Ned Yost’s fault.  He can only manage with the team he’s been given.  He doesn’t draft, he doesn’t make trades, it’s not his main responsibility to evaluate talent and bring prospects up from the minors.  It’s his job to coach the team on the field.  No doubt he overcompensates and ends up doing things that look stupid in retrospect, but many of these decision are made in desperation while attempting to surmount the overwhelming pitching handicap the Royals have been saddled with.  All things considered, it simply isn’t possible or fair to call Ned Yost the worst manager in the major leagues, and we won’t be able to make this assessment accurately until and unless the Royals Front Office provide him with a competitive rotation.

You may say the Royals can’t afford to compete in the free agent wars and their small market revenue stream places them in an unwinnable position.  Well, no doubt it makes things more difficult, but I don’t see anyone in Tampa making excuses for their low payroll, and they are winning.  And by the way, they’re winning with an abundance of talented young pitching.  Just sayin’.

Enter Humberto Quintero.

Oh boy, Humberto. (Screengrab via Reddit)

Sure, it looked like typical clubhouse hazing, but some are upset. You see, Bruce Chen is Asian ethnically (though he was born in Panama), and Quintero’s actions were to creep up behind Chen and harken back to school yard hijinks by pulling his eyes into a squint with his fingers.

On the national stage, even.

Chen has since responded and, Chen being Chen, has handled the incident with humor and grace to downplay a situation that otherwise could have been awkward for Fox, the Royals, and the players involved.

I am proud to be of asian descent and I love the way my eyes look!I think it makes me look sexy.I am not offended by Quinteros actions

— Bruce Chen (@ChenMusic) June 10, 2012

He later added that Quintero was pointing out one of his best features.

I don’t think Quintero meant any offense towards Chen and he’s been considered somewhat of a prankster anyway (he used to have the nickname Barney Rubble in San Diego and had a Fred Flintstone poster over his locker during spring training). Baseball players are around each other and on the road for most of the year, and often they have downtime to come up with all sorts of inside jokes and to goof around. This seems derived from that but it happened to show up during a national broadcast.

The Royals likely aren’t going to bring this up anymore save for some statement that Quintero feels regret for the gesture and that it was a dugout joke.

Should he get off that easily? How much does intent matter in these kinds of situations?

It’s an issue that goes beyond just sports. My take is that, yes, it’s offensive just as it would be if Quintero came up behind anyone he didn’t know who happened to be Asian and did the same thing. He shouldn’t be off the hook and even if Chen doesn’t take offense, others have. Any discipline will be doled out in-house and we might not ever hear about the reaction of the front office.

Bruce Chen was solid all night. Photo: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Chen was great, throwing 62 of his 88 pitches for strikes and hitting his spots while walking none. The Twins didn’t hit the ball hard all night and he passed the game off to Greg Holland.

Facing three right-handed hitters, he struck out Brian Dozier and Drew Butera, then induced a grounder from Jamey Carroll. Alcides Escobar rushed the throw and Eric Hosmer couldn’t scoop it, but Holland struck Denard Span out looking on a slider to end the inning. Jonathan Broxton worked another stressful inning to get the save, stranding Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau on base in the process.

After a miserable loss last night, this was a solid way to bounce back. The overworked Royals bullpen needed a rest, and seven solid innings from Chen helps that. He could have work an eighth, but Ned Yost said after the game that he didn’t want to do that with just a one run lead and righties coming up.

Francisco Liriano‘s slider could have been registered as a weapon in the middle innings. During the fourth inning, Liriano struck out four batters, with Jeff Francoeur reaching on a slider in the dirt. All four strikeouts were swinging, including two bad at bats by Mike Moustakas and Hosmer.

The lone run of the game came after Eric Hosmer reached on a fielder’s choice, stole second, and scored on a Brayan Pena single that found a hole on the left side. The Royals could have added an insurance run in the eighth when Alex Gordon doubled with one out, but he was caught between second and third on a comebacker by Johnny Giavotella. Billy Butler singled on a looping line drive to center that surely could have scored Gordon with two outs (assuming Giavotella would have been thrown out at first rather than Gordon being caught trying to advance). It didn’t factor into the game, but it could have been a costly mistake. Gordon was picked off of first earlier in the game when he went on the first move by Liriano.

Felipe Paulino takes on Nick Blackburn tomorrow. Paulino has been solid in 2012 and we’ll hope he keeps it up in the last game of the series.

May 22, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) in the dugout against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

I remember thinking about how the Royals might go about winning games with such a terrible starting rotation before the season began. It’s hard to win when you can’t pitch, and it looked like for a majority of their innings they’d be getting bad pitching. I thought then that with such a good offensive lineup they would need to win a significant number of high scoring games—6-5, 8-6 and so on.

Right now, the Royals are 23-30, not good, but not out of the realm of where most people thought they should be—especially considering the 12-game losing streak. But when I reflect on how they’ve won those games, the high-scoring battles aren’t ringing any bells. Why? Because they haven’t won any.

That’s really not fair; they have won one. Yes, one. The Royals record when their opponent scores 5 runs or more is 1-20. That’s not very good for a team whose lineup was suppose to carry them.

Now, obviously, the offense hasn’t produced as expected. They’ve scored 214 runs all season, that’s 4.03 runs per game. Eric Hosmer has been a shell of himself, though he’s shown some signs of life lately. Alex Gordon struggled early and is starting to turn it around. Jeff Francoeur also struggled early. The Royals also had an abysmal time hitting with runners in scoring position (though their overall team batting average is good enough for ninth in MLB, another piece of evidence to support the notion that BA isn’t everything).

The offense has been weaker than expected, but that alone doesn’t tell the story either. In Saturday’s loss to Oakland, the Royals got down early thanks to another Luke Hochevar-like effort by Luke Hochevar. They were down 6-1 after the fourth inning. I’ve heard players on this team say they have the fire power to come back from deficits like this, which is good because they’re going to have plenty of them.

It all fell apart though after the Royals scored two runs to make it a game at 6-3. At that point, it looked like they might actually mount a comeback, but they couldn’t make those 1-run innings 3-run innings. Then, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow, and some really terrible defense gave us a glimpse of Royals teams past, and it was over 9-3.

As those of you who watch baseball know, the game is played in context. Different elements of each game impact other elements of that game. Think about the rally-killing sac-bunt Ned Yost called for in the fourth inning tonight. That had huge ramifications throughout the game. That took a potential 5 or 6-run inning and made it a 3-run inning. If Yost had been thinking about how his team would probably need many more runs to win that game, he probably wouldn’t have called for a sac-bunt.

So, the issue isn’t that the Royals aren’t scoring a lot of runs—they’re not—but that they aren’t scoring a lot of runs when they need to. This isn’t necessarily a solvable problem, but it’s not necessarily something to be written off as unsolvable either. People would be very wrong in tossing this issue aside by saying Well they can’t control when the runs come. They come when they come. Not true.

Managers have a pretty good idea of when they’re going to have to play for 7 or 8 runs (anytime Will Smith is pitching for example). Maybe that means fewer sacrifice bunts or playing more offensive players on a given day. Maybe it means running less to wait for extra base hits, knowing that a stolen run won’t do much for you. Maybe it means keeping spirits high when the team is down by the third inning.

For players, this issue seems more psychological. Last season, when the team was 8-20 through 53 games when opponents scored 5 or more runs, it felt like they were in every game—even when they were down 5 runs. The same sort of “overcoming all odds” mentality is lacking this season. Maybe it’s because some players have struggled at the plate, and they feel less confident about their ability to recapture a lead. I’m not sure. But it just doesn’t feel the same.

Obviously, a team is going to lose more games than not when it gives up at least 5 runs. But for this very unique team, they have to win more high scoring games than they are currently. They have to feel comfortable playing from behind. With a bad rotation, that’s going to happen a lot. Yost needs to make decisions with this in mind. His mentality with virtually every starter, except maybe Bruce Chen and Felipe Paulino, needs to be one that focuses on getting into the other teams bullpen early and playing for big innings. Otherwise, this team will not flirt with .500 this season like they should.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

Season Series – Cleveland 4-2, Indians swept series in KC April 13-15 with Royals taking 2-of-3 April 24-26

Can Billy Butler and Jeff Francoeur keep up their hot hitting in Cleveland to close the road trip? Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

Since the last time – These two foes met roughly a month ago with KC taking two-of-three after getting swept by the Tribe to open the 2012 home slate. Last time the teams met Cleveland was 9-8 and tied for the AL Central lead since they’ve gone 17-13 and leads the division by half a game over the White Sox and the Royals by six and a half games. Kansas City left the last meeting with a 5-14 record and have gone 14-13 since.

Heading into the Match-Up – Over the weekend the boys in blue took the series against the AL East leading Orioles while the Tribe were swept on the Southside being outscored 25-16 over the three-game series.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Monday, 3:05 pm – Nate Adcock (0-2, 2.33) v. Josh Tomlin (1-2, 4.67)
- Adcock In the 15-inning loss to the O’s Nate threw a then season high five innings and gave up an Adam Jones bomb to left in the only run allowed by him. His other loss came in the only start he made against the Diamondbacks going five, surrendering just one run.
- Tomlin has won his last two starts beating the White Sox twice in a five day stretch earlier this month. He’s pitched once against the Royals losing 4-2 on April 26 going 4 2/3 innings.

Tuesday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (0-1, 13.50) v. Justin Masterson (2-3, 4.62)
- Smith had a tough welcome to the show last week getting the ball at Yankee Stadium. In his first MLB start he went 3 1/3 allowing five runs on six hits.
- Masterson is 1-3 in his last four starts for the Indians going six innings in each appearance and into the seventh in his last two. In those starts he’s 1-1 with two no-decisions in the loss he allowed six runs in a 12-1 defeat at Boston.

Monday, 11:05 am – Bruce Chen (3-5, 4.81) v. Jeanmar Gomez (3-3, 3.94)
- Chen didn’t have his best stuff Friday night in Baltimore which was surprising given his previous starts. In the loss at Baltimore Bruce went just four innings allowing six runs on seven hits in his shortest outing since the loss at Minnesota.
- Gomez I’m sure Royals fans remember Mr. Gomez from the opening series at the K. In his last three starts Gomez is 1-1 with a ND winning against Miami but losing to Chicago on Friday night 9-3 allowing six runs.

Bruce Chen will look to snap the Royals two-game losing streak in the series opener at Baltimore. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

When these teams met last Wednesday and Thursday at Kauffman Stadium, it was KC who was the hotter team having gone 4-1 on a roadtrip on the southside of Chicago and Arlington. Baltimore has been one of the early surprises of the season leading the AL East.

In the quick two-game series, Kansas City jumped out to the lead with the end result being Baltimore coming back late to earn the sweep. Game one went 15-innings which was highlighted in many Royals fans minds of Jonathan Broxton blowing his second save of the season and Nate Adcock surrendering a 15^th inning bomb to Adam Jones in the 4-3 Orioles win.

Game two again KC built an early lead with Humberto Quintero and Johnny Giavotella driving in the runs putting the Royals up 3-0 in the third. The O’s got two back in the next inning with Jones again hitting a homer this time of the two-run variety. Luke Hochevar who pitched well ran into trouble in the seventh inning after back-to-back singles (highlighted by Jarrod Dyson misplaying what should’ve been only a single).

J.J. Hardy who tied the game for Balitmore in game one, again came up with the big hit putting the birds in front for good. Aaron Crow who has been good in relief was unable to help Hochevar out walking Lois Esposito and Xavier Avery back-to-back loading the bases which culminated with Hardy’s hit.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 6:05 pm – Bruce Chen (3-4, 4.17) v. Jason Hammel (5-1, 3.12)
- Chen, enters this start having won his last three starts beating the Red Sox, at Rangers and Diamondbacks. He’s reached the seventh inning in each of these starts and averaging five strikeouts and 1.3 walks in these starts. Another thing helping is KC is giving Bruce run support scoring 4.6 runs compared to just an average of two runs in his first six starts.
- Hammel, Has been great so far this season for the AL East leaders starting 5-1 with two no-decisions. He’s 2-0 with a ND in his last three starts beating Boston and Washington while not figuring into the loss against the Yankees. In his last two starts he went five and 5 1/3 innings allowing 6.5 hits in his last two starts and 4.5 runs.
Saturday, 3:05 pm – Felipe Paulino (2-1, 1.42) v. Wei-Yin Chen (4-1, 3.35)
- Paulino, So far in three of his four starts in 2012 he’s not allowed a run, the game he did at Chicago he did suffer his lone loss. Felipe went seven innings last week against Baltimore but the Royals bullpen was unable to hold onto the lead. In four starts Paulino is averaging seven strikeouts which includes nine against the O’s last Wednesday and eight in the Bronx on Monday.
- Chen, Suffered his first defeat at Washington 9-3 in his last start for the rookie out of Taiwan. The six-runs he allowed were a season high and nearly a third of the 22 runs allowed this season. He’s been getting 4.6 runs of support in each start.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.61) v. TBD
- Hochevar, Sure I and Royals fans have had fun at the former number one pick expense but let’s give him credit as of late. In Luke’s last three starts he’s made it into the seventh inning and seen his ERA go from an even nine to its current 6.61 form. Also encouraging has been his strikeout numbers in the last three starts increasing with 5, 6 and 8 in those games.
- TBD, For now we’ll have to wait and see who Buck Showalter goes to if that is activating someone from the DL or calling up someone from the minors.

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

As the Royals finished their homestand, the Royalman Report added another episode of discussion.

This week, we recapped Fake Ned’s trip to Omaha and listened to comments from Storm Chasers General Manager Martie Cordero and pitchers Tommy Hottovy and Jake Odorizzi (who had debuted in Triple A on Friday).

We covered a lot of Omaha and minor league information, including Wil Myers‘s debut, Christian Colon‘s breakout, Mike Montgomery‘s issues and more. We also talked a bit about player development and the Royals and why some teams have figured it out and the Royals are still lagging.

Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas earned praise as well for carrying the team offensively – those guys are raking.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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From now until the All-Star selections are announced later this summer, I’ll be subjectively breaking down the five Royals each week who I think have the best shot to make the team, based both on the previous week’s performance as well as what can reasonably expected moving forward.

All cited statistics are valid through Tuesday, May 15th’s ridiculously surprising victory over the Texas Rangers. You know, the one that was won by Vin Mazzaro, secured a series sweep over the best team in the AL, and brought the Royals record to 15-20.

2012 Kansas City Royals All-Star Power Rankings

1. Mike Moustakas – In an article posted a couple of weeks ago, I downplayed Moustakas’ chances of making the All-Star game because of the high-priced talent at his position. But in the time since that sage opinion hit the interwebs, a couple of things have broken in his favor.

One, Evan Longoria suffered a hip injury, taking him out of consideration for a spot if he isn’t voted in by the fans. Considering the fact that

Mike Moustakes may now be the logical choice to represent the Royals in the All Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Longoria was hitting .329/.433/.561 with four home runs and 19 RBI’s when he last played (on April 30th), it’s safe to say that Moustakas’ candidacy has been bolstered.

Longoria could, however, still be voted in by the fans, and perennial All-Stars Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are also on the ballot as third basemen. So Moustakas in by no means a shoe-in. But the Royals third baseman is currently putting up a better line, .310/.371/.540, than any other eligible third baseman (sans Longoria) in the American League.

The second benefit for Moustakas is the way he is breaking away from the rest of the Royals offensively. Aside from newly promoted Irving Falu, Billy Butler is the only other Royal with an OPS over .800, and he still lags fifty points behind Moustakas. If he continues to keep his stat line above those of Cabrera, Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez, it will be hard to pick a different Royal for the big game in Kansas City this summer.

2. Alcides Escobar - I’ve stated Escobar’s case here before, and he continues to stake his claim for one the American League shortstop spots in the All-Star game. Escobar has put together several defensive highlights over the past week, including this incredible web gem on a play he made in short left field.

Escobar’s bat has held up admirably as well. Heading into Wednesday, he has compiled a line of .287/.320/.426, good for fourth among AL shortstop qualifiers with a .746 OPS.

So why, might you ask, do I now view Moustakas as a more viable All-Star?

It has to do with the competition each player faces. While the injury to Evan Longoria has opened things up for Moustakas, strong offensive streaks from Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera have hurt Escobar’s chance to make the cut. Remember that Derek Jeter is having a resurgent season, and even if he wasn’t, would be an almost certain selection by the fans anyway.

Simply put, there is more firepower for Escobar to compete with at the moment than for Moustakas. That makes a difference.

3. Billy Butler – At this point, Butler is a longshot to be the Royals All-Star representative. Sporting a .288/.340/.489 line heading out of Texas on Tuesday, Butler is pretty firmly entrenched as the fourth best designated hitter in the American League behind David Ortiz, Adam Dunn, and Edwin Encarnacion all currently OPS’ing over .900.

Butler will need a vintage Butler-esque hot streak in order to get back into the mix, and while he is due for an offensive run, he’ll still be hard-pressed to make up the 150+ OPS points he currently needs to surpass Dunn or Ortiz.

One day, Butler will get his due, but he’ll need to show more consistency and/or ride a ridiculous hot stretch before he can be considered among the elite hitters in the American League. For now, he’ll likely have to settle for being one of the elite hitters on the Kansas City Royals.

4. Jonathan Broxton -Based off of his initial performances from early April, Royals fans may be hesitant to anoint Broxton as an All-Star caliber player. But even with that disastrous opening week blown save against Oakland, Broxton has put up a stellar campaign.

Jonathan Broxton is probably the only Royals pitcher with a chance to make the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Those who watch every game may lament Broxton’s knack for getting himself in (and out of) trouble, but I’m fairly certain that AL manager Ron Washington doesn’t watch the first year Royals closer pitch every day. What Washington might notice, however, is that Broxton currently ranks third among AL closers with a 1.32 ERA and fourth in the league with eight saves.

If Washington is put in a position to take Texas’ Adrian Beltre over Moustakas, Broxton may be the guy he looks at to fill the obligatory Royals spot on the American League Roster.

5. Alex Gordon – To be honest, not too many Royals have distinguished themselves as reasonable candidates for the fifth and final spot on this list. But as I mentioned at the top of this post, one of the factors that will go into these rankings is expected future results.

Gordon has as much room for growth as anyone on the team  besides Eric Hosmer, except he already owns a 150 point lead over Hosmer with his .729 OPS.

Gordon absolutely deserved the All-Star nod in 2011, so it would be poetic justice to see him make a meteoric rise to the top spot of these rankings.

HONORABLE MENTION: Danny Duffy (2012 season R.I.P), Jarrod Dyson (the man just gets on base), Bruce Chen (that would be great to see, no?)

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May 11, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton (32) gets congratulated by shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) after hitting a home run in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals wrapped up the weekend series in Chi-town with a 9-1 win Sunday to complete a series win.  They now have split or won their last six series and have won 8 of their last 14 after losing 12 in a row in April.  Now they get the daunting task of slowing down one of the best teams in baseball, the Texas Rangers.  Not to mention the best player in the game, Josh Hamilton, just came off one of the greatest weeks a hitter could ever have, including a 5-5 4 homerun game last Tuesday.

The Royals face the Rangers in a short 2 game series in Arlington, Texas.  Bruce Chen and Scott Feldman will be given the nod on Monday to take the mound and open the series.  On Tuesday there has been speculation as to who the Royals will start with most signs pointing toward Vin Mazzaro.  Colby Lewis will be the Rangers starter on Tuesday night.

Feldman, a career .500 pitcher, will be making his second start of the season tomorrow.  He has a 4.35 ERA in 10.1 innings of work on the season.  Feldman is not much of a strike out pitcher and the Royals should be able to put some good at bats together against him.  Colby Lewis is coming off two rough road starts where he allowed 6 runs in each.  While his last two starts are forgettable, he has managed to be stellar at home going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA.

The main concern I have in the series is how well the Royals can keep the Rangers hitters in line.  I believe Bruce Chen can give us one of his usual starts which will give the Royals a fighting chance.  I’m very skeptical of Mazzaro, but he does have the ability to go 5 innings.  However, it’s also very likely he struggles to go 3 or 4 innings and the Texas lineup does what they do best, and mash.

Before the games get underway there are a few other interesting facts to know.  Ian Kinsler, the second baseman for the Rangers, and Josh Hamilton lead all of Major League Baseball in runs scored.  The Rangers also have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball.  Their bullpen ERA is tops amongst all teams, so it won’t be ideal if the Royals are trailing and have to make any attempt at a comeback against solid relievers like Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, and closer Joe Nathan.

This series is sure going to be an interesting one.  Will Josh Hamilton keep up his torrid hot streak?  Can the Royals starters and bullpen keep the Rangers at bay?  Will the Royals be able to keep pace with the best offense in baseball?  A lot of questions will be answered and we will soon find out how this series will play out.  Hopefully the Royals can, at least, manage a split on the road and head back to Kauffman Stadium on a good note.

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If Marlon Byrd was half a foot to his left or if Cody Ross took a split second longer to secure the ball, the Red Sox very well may have won on Wednesday night.

Instead, both were involved in misplays that led to three Royals runs in the first inning off of nemesis Jon Lester with two outs. Jarrod Dyson grounded out and Alex Gordon struck out against Lester, who owned a 1.30 ERA in seven career starts against Kansas City, including the last no-hitter against the Royals.

Then the Royals got Billy Butler on base with a walk. Jeff Francoeur singled. Johnny Giavotella, recalled Wednesday afternoon from Omaha, hit a hard tailing line drive to Byrd in center, but the ball went off his glove and bounced away from him. Butler scored and Francoeur went to third.

Brayan Pena beats the tag as he heads back to second on a strange double in the first inning. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Brayan Pena doubled deep to left and Ross seemed to have caught the ball at first, but as he continued his stride, it came loose, left his glove, hit the left-field wall before he pulled it back in. The umpires ruled that he hadn’t secured the ball completely so when it hit the screen over the scoreboard on the wall, Butler and Giavotella had scored and Pena scurried back to second for a double.

The Royals left the first with a 3-0 lead and racked up 38 pitches.

Bruce Chen was solid in 6.2 innings, finding trouble in the top of the third when he loaded the bases but snuck a fastball past David Ortiz for the second out. Adrian Gonzalez doubled into the gap to clear the bases and tie the score, but they didn’t threaten Chen any other time.

The Royals added a run on an Alcides Escobar double that scored Irving Falu and Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton held the 4-3 lead.

The breaks went their way for a change, both at bat and in the field. A hard liner by Ortiz was right at Escobar. After Broxton gave up a single to Ross and walked Jarod Saltalamacchia, Byrd laid down a bunt to put the lead run in scoring position. Alex Gordon was positioned nearly perfectly to make a sliding catch of a Ryan Sweeney line drive, popped up and threw home to keep pinch runner Darnell McDonald at third. Broxton induced a Mike Aviles ground out to shut the door.

This is the kind of game the Royals would typically lose (and without Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in the lineup too), but they caught a little luck. The result gives them a winning homestand, a breath of fresh air after their 0-fer to start the season. Winning two out of four games against the Yankees and taking the Red Sox series could start some positive momentum as the Royals head back on the road with a series against the White Sox starting on Friday.

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May 07, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez (57) is relieved by manager Ned Yost (3) in the fourth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Today, I realized I can no longer do this.  I can’t be hopelessly optimistic about someone who has given me little in return to back up my optimism.  I was never a fan of the Luke Hochevar pick in the 2006 draft, but I sucked it up and tried to find a reason to like the pick and give my support for Hochevar.  First, let me state that Hochevar should have never been the 1st overall pick and because of his selection there, he is going to be the most scrutinized player from that draft.  It’s also hard to swallow that Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Tim Lincecum were all top ten picks that year as well, and were passed on.

While Hochevar hasn’t been bad every time out, what makes him so frustrating to watch, is the fact he is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game.  He’s had days of complete game shutouts and then he’ll turn around and have an outing like the home opener onslaught that a sold out crowd witnessed earlier this year at Kauffman Stadium.  A starter needs to be consistent, something Hochevar is not.  Yeah, Bruce Chen won’t dominate a line up but you can expect 6 innings and 2-3 runs every time he toes the rubber.  There’s peace of mind knowing what to expect from your starter on any given day.

That being said it really is time to at least scan around for other options to start in place of Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez.  I’m not sure how much longer their leash is, but it can’t be too long.  Sanchez and Hochevar combined have went past 5 innings only twice thus far this season.  Hochevar is now the 6th worst pitcher in MLB history according to ERA that includes pitchers with over 100 starts.  That’s an interesting piece of information that can be found here* along with the rest of the top, or should I say bottom, ten.  I tend to get a sick feeling in my stomach every time it’s Sanchez’s turn in the rotation.  I know 5 walks and 3 innings is very likely.  These two make watching the Royals a nauseating task.  Normally, I’m not this down on the Royals, but I hate seeing the starting pitching give these types of performances.

*It’s interesting to note Kyle Davies is right in front of Hochevar on this list.

Therefore, there may come a time relatively soon where a change has to be made.  Ryan Verdugo, Nate Adcock, and Everett Teaford are all guys I truly believe can give us a quality start just about every time out.  The most important things a starter can do is keep the team in the game and go deep in the game to preserve the bullpen arms throughout the season.  Jake Odorizzi is also an intriguing name that I’d love to see in Kansas City at some point during the season.

I really don’t like giving up on a player, but it appears as though Hochevar is not capable of overcoming his blow up inning more times than not.  I believe there is a lack of focus there, even though no one will come out and say that.  I’m sure he prepares himself very well and puts in the time and effort, but there is something with the mental side of his game that is just not adding up.  A guy with the repertoire of pitches that Hochevar sports should not be nearly this inconsistent and should be a top of the rotation starter.  It’s just very frustrating to continue to watch him and anticipate his blow up inning.

All I’m hoping for is this doesn’t continue.  Whether Hochevar and Sanchez figure out a few things and can pitch deeper into a game or Ned Yost finally makes a move and replaces one or both of them with a few candidates I mentioned earlier, something will need to change.  The starting pitching is the weak spot of the team but that doesn’t mean you can’t make changes to try and produce different outcomes.  These two are certainly not cutting it.

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The game that was scheduled versus the Tigers was rained out and postponed until Monday, Sept. 24, officially ruining everyone’s TV watching and Twitter fun for tonight. In doing so, the three-game series turns into a two-game set in which Royals fans can only hope Jim Leyland decides to give his ace Verlander an extra day’s rest. Sadly at this time, Verlander is still scheduled to go for Wednesday.

A positive however is the extra days rest this rainout gives to a struggling rotation, and the flexibility it gives to the team as Mendoza can head back to the bullpen in a long-relief role, in preparation of Felipe Paulino making his season debut on Saturday.

Mendoza already figured to be the odd man out of the rotation when Paulino returned from the DL, but being able to push everyone back a day allows Ned Yost to keep Bruce Chen on his regular rest for Friday’s game, and not have to scramble to find someone to start on Thursday.

Paulino’s return scheduled for Saturday couldn’t have come at a better time. The Royals pitching so far this year has struggled to the tune of a 4.58 ERA (good for fifth worst in all of baseball, an all too familiar trend), and even though Paulino isn’t known for going deep into games, anyone that can give them quality innings by limiting contact at this point is much needed.

What today’s cancellation also does is allow Jonathan Sanchez and Danny Duffy another day’s rest.

Sanchez was already pushed back a day for experiencing flu-like symptoms, so getting him another day to see if he can not only get healthy, but try and find a fix to the control issues that have plagued him so far this year, is much needed. He’s never been a control guy, but he’s never been this bad either. Sanchez will pitch Wednesday.

Duffy’s extra day couldn’t be better timed. Already having been skipped last Friday for experiencing “minor elbow tightness”, allowing Duffy to get as much non-mound throwing in as possible to work through his ailment is just what the doctor ordered.

For his start on Thursday Royals fans should watch closely because “elbow tightness” is never a phrase you want to hear in regards to one of your best pitchers.

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Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Bruce Chen pitches the ball against the Oakland Athletics. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

The losing streak continues.  Make that 7 in a row for the Royals as they lost a close one last night to the Tigers by a final of 4-3.  It’s tough to keep an open mind when things are, seemingly, spiraling out of control.  There are, however, a few things that we can take away as positives even though they are caught in the midst of a 7 game losing streak.

The first and most important positive I have taken away from the streak are the performances by Danny Duffy.  Many have suspected for a while about what Duffy is capable of, but his first two starts this season have been very impressive, to say the least.  He went toe-to-toe with, arguably, the best pitcher in all of baseball and held his own.  Although he was on the losing end, he impressed many as he handled the Tigers lineup with relative ease.  Duffy is certainly showing us he has “Ace” stuff and it shows in his stat line which can be found here.

It’s also been very nice to see how well Bruce Chen is pitching.  He brings consistency to his starts, which can be very helpful for the offense.  Every time Chen takes the hill, we can almost expect 5-6 innings with about 2 or 3 runs allowed, so the offense has a grasp on how many runs they would need when he starts.  He hasn’t been rewarded for his efforts this season, but I’m willing to bet he still piles together 10-11 wins throughout the course of the season.

It might surprise some fans that Chris Getz has made this list of positives, but he has been a pleasant surprise through the first 12 games of the season.  I know I might get some grief for mentioning Getz, but he has not been to blame for this team’s poor start.  He has always brought speed to his game and now it seems he is stinging the ball with some authority, which is a definite positive.  Even some of his outs have been well struck.  Normally we might be blaming Getz, but he has not given us that ammunition at this time and hopefully he will continue to contribute.

While Bruce Chen is the consistent starter for the pitching staff, Billy Butler has been the most consistent hitter in the lineup.  This should come as no surprise, as Butler, for several years, has given the Royals a consistent showing season in and season out.  He is a doubles machine and already has 6 this season.  He is still in the process of turning some of those doubles into homeruns, but it’s a warming feeling when we know Butler will be the anchor in the lineup through thick and thin.

I would have liked to see Mike Moustakas jump out to an amazing start at the plate, but he still has provided us with some moments where he’s shined.  He does have 5 doubles and one homerun through the his first 10 games but has walked zero times while striking out ten.  The positive I see from Moose is his glove at third base.  He has made some dazzling plays while also playing errorless up to this point.  The knock on Moose was his glove, but it could be possible he is transitioning into an above average third baseman.

It’s definitely not easy to be positive when the team started out 3-2 and is now in the middle of a nauseating 7 game losing streak.  With a young team, losing streaks are bound to happen, but at the same time, winning streaks are going to be right around the corner as well.  It’s going to take getting over this hump, but I do believe it will happen especially with some of the positives I’ve just mentioned.

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Apr 7, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman

Since it’s in the nature of fans to overreact to every little thing that happens in a baseball season—especially a very anticipated Opening Day—I’ve decided to participate in that tradition. I like overreacting; it’s cathartic. I like, at times, being the fan that sees the first loss of the season and then projects a record of 0-162. That is not only comical in its absurdity but also allows me to vent pent up frustration.

Unfortunately, I missed the boat on the first game, and the Royals won the second and third games. So, instead I decided to provide a look at the first series, noting some things I saw that trouble and please me. They may be things you’ve already noted; they may not be. You’ll have to read to find out (in the media-biz we call that a teaser).

Game 1

February 21, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher

First off, what is that thing growing on Jered Weaver’s face? He looks like he should be running the dunk tank for a traveling carnival. Other than that, he pitched great … damn him. But more than that, the Royals actually looked nervous for most of this game. They were swinging at bad pitches, check swinging, popping pitches up. It was ugly. Weaver was great AND Royals hitters were bad. It took that combination to produce a truly awful offensive performance.

That nervousness was a good thing though. It means they care enough to get nervous. In my mind, it means they understand their expectations and have expectations for themselves. It’s almost adorable in a way to see players get as psyched up for a single game as fans do. In baseball that’s a rarity since players usually know that game one is just as important as game 73. Their anxiousness and over-excitement is a sign of their youth, but in my mind it’s a good sign of their youth. I want players that get a little nervous for Opening Day.

On a very positive note, Bruce Chen pitched well—really well. That’s a great sign after a not-so-solid spring. He did exactly what good-Chen always does—pitched inside aggressively, changed speeds, stayed down, and mixed his pitches. It was so great to see. It makes me wonder how fans would have reacted if the team had won but Chen had given up five runs and the offense had outscored the Angels. What would the reaction be if the team so far was playing right into what people believed they would be—all offense and no starting pitching?

I’m firmly of the belief that this game turned when Jeff Francoeur was picked off at second base. Yunieski Betancourt singled next. So, if you believe as I do that Francoeur would have scored, you have to believe that game would have looked completely different. Here’s how I think it would have looked. Francoeur scores. The Royals have a one-run lead going into the seventh inning. Aaron Crow pitches his lights out seventh, but Ned Yost decides to bring in Greg Holland at the beginning of the eighth inning to protect that lead. Scoreless eighth. Scoreless ninth from Jonathan Broxton. We’re all clearing vacation time for the World Series. I believe Yost left Crow in because there was no lead to protect and he wanted to stretch Crow to save the other arms. If they had a lead in the eighth inning, Yost would have gone to Holland. If Francoeur hadn’t been picked off, they probably would have had a lead. Speculative? Yes. But still.

Game 2

This is the game of good feelings. Luke Hochevar pitched very well. Despite the good numbers, he didn’t have his best stuff. He had trouble commanding that fastball at times and left it up a few times. He was hit hard some, but fortunately, those shots went right to Royals defenders. Still, Hochevar did a great job to grind out 6.1 innings of solid pitching without his greatest command. That’s what a number one starter does—event though he’s technically not the number one.

The lineup looked much more relaxed in game two. They were more patient, got themselves into more good hitters counts, and took advantage of them. I was pleasantly surprised by Humberto Quintero. Though I don’t expect that type of performance to persist, it was nice in the moment. Alex Gordon still struggled, but did manage a walk and collect his first outfield assist of the season. I wonder if the pressure of a new contract is weighing on him, but I think he’ll come around soon.

I loved to see the execution of moving the runner over and getting him in. Do you remember? Quintero doubled to lead off an inning; Escobar sacrificed him over to third, and Lorenzo Cain hit a sacrifice fly to get him in. I know that it’s bad to give away outs, but I can’t remember how many games last season in which getting that run in from third would have really helped, and the Royals failed to do so. In that situation, if the batter can get a hit, do it. But no matter what, get the run in. Cain got the run in, and that made me happy. That made a two-run lead a three-run lead, and they are very different—at least they feel very different.

Game 3

This game was almost the mirror of game two. The Royals jumped on the scoreboard early. Jonathan Sanchez struggled at times, but gutted out five innings with only two runs given up. Hosmer did his thing and is on pace for like 100 home runs—which seems likely. With a total team effort, the Royals won the series, beating a team everyone thinks is much better than they are.

What really stood out to me was how well Alcides Escobar and Chris Getz played. Escobar hit second and showed a lot of patience at the plate. It’s looking like he’s taking the approach he had during his good stretches last season and making it work for him. He had a bunt single, which was great. He needs to do those little things to make himself productive on offense—walk, get bunt singles, take extra bases, hit the ball the other way.

Let me say that I am not a huge Getz fan. I think he’s way overvalued by Yost, but I also must admit that he hit the ball pretty well today—or at least as well as he can. He has to be the same type of hitter Escobar is trying to be. He has to utilize his speed, be patient, and drive the ball to all fields. He’s not going to hit it over anybody so he’s got to hit it where they aint and run. That said, I don’t think he’ll have the patience to continue to be productive. Escobar might.

Gordon continued to struggle. I’m not too worried, but I’m ready to see him grab a hit to build confidence. I think Gordon has issues with confidence. All the check swings and strikeouts indicate to me that he isn’t seeing the ball, committing to it, and letting his hands go. He seems indecisive, and that helps someone go 0-for-the-series. I think he’ll get on track; the question is when. The longer he goes without a hit, the harder on his confidence it will be.

All-in-all a very good series for the Royals. They took on a top team in the American League and took two of three. They played solid defense and hit the ball well. Their starting pitchers gave up only four runs in more than 17 innings. Their bullpen was a little shaky, but they should be fine. Now, they head to Oakland where they SHOULD win. Good teams win the series they should so this is a good test of the type of team the Royals are going to be. From the immediate, small sample, they might be pretty good.

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Moustakas & Escobar Still Learning to Dance Together (Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE)

After what seemed like the world’s longest off-season, the Royals finally played a game that mattered on Friday night. There was tremendous buildup – not just because all of the hype of the returning rookies and guys coming off career years, but also because of increased expectations. These guys are winners. They’ve won at every level & now it’s “Our Time” to win where it really counts. You also had the whole Albert Pujols circus & national broadcast to deal with. And man, to have to wait until 9:00 to get going?!? By the time the game started I couldn’t tell if I wanted to bounce off the walls or go to bed.

By the way, it’s got to be so difficult to come up with a new one line slogan every year. I can’t imagine sitting in a room & having to come up with a positive slogan for the 2007 season. Three straight seasons of 100+ losses really brings out the optimism in people. I give a lot of credit to the person who came up with the “Our Time” slogan. It’s so fitting & is said with such confidence by the Royals during countless commercials & promos.

It just turned out that “Our Time” didn’t start on Friday night.

As is often the case early in the year at any level, the pitchers are comfortably ahead of the hitters. Angels ace Jered Weaver was as good as anticipated, but even Bruce Chen looked like an All-Star. He matched Weaver inning for inning, bad swing for bad swing for six innings.

That, unfortunately, was the difference in the game. While Chen exited to give way to our surefire bullpen after six, Weaver went eight strong. Not to say that I wasn’t completely pleased with Chen’s performance – he was outstanding. However, the difference between our “Ace” and Jered Weaver, those two innings, is the length of the bridge to the closer. Again, our bullpen (along with our offense) is supposed to be able to compensate for our lack of starting pitching. It’s ironic that our two strongsuits failed while our weakness dominated.

On Friday night, Aaron Crow had one outstanding inning – the seventh. The eighth was a nightmare. If Chen is able to go even one more inning, then Crow pitches a great eighth & we get to Jonathan Broxton in the ninth with a chance to win. Instead, Crow lost his ability to locate a pitch after getting the first out in the eighth and left multiple balls out over the plate, which the Angels hitters pounced on. They looked like starving dogs that hadn’t eaten all winter. After Crow got out of there & Greg Holland came in – ideally to close the door as he did so well in 2011 – Erick Aybar stepped in and slugged every Royals fan in the gut with a bases clearing bleeder down the Right Field Line.

It was a game in which pitching dominated. Hitters looked anxious, as evidenced by just the one (intentional) walk in the game. They looked sluggish. We saw numerous bad swings and poor decisions. Weaver’s slider was nasty, but we were hoping to see a little more offense than we got in the Opening Act. It’s tough to sit there & watch Alex Gordon strike out on multiple check-swings, but that’s Game 1 kind of confusion. Hosmer’s swing looked long & slow – and he chased pitches out of the strike zone all night. Jeff Francoeur was over-anxious, but I could see him working – just trying to hit a fastball rather than wait for that dirty slider.

Frenchy’s mistake at second base highlighted a very emotional seventh inning. In a game like this, it only takes the slightest misstep to change the outcome. It seemed like the game had finally tipped in the Royals’ direction when Francoeur ripped a double to left. The veteran had come through and picked up his young teammates. However, a quick spin move by Weaver caught Frenchy too far off second and just like that there were two outs and nobody on. It could have meant a run for the Royals, which at that point looked like it might have been enough for a win.

As it turned out, the Angels had tipped the scales back in their direction, and in the bottom of the eighth, they finally capitalized. They pounded out five straight hits, sent 10 men to the plate, and exited with a 5-0 lead. Ballgame.

When there is such buildup and high expectations for an event, it’s easy to get down after it doesn’t go your way. I’m sure that the lockerroom was pretty quiet afterwards. That’s where we need to have leadership that can remind this team that no matter how disappointing, it still only counts as one loss. One out of 162. As Royals fans, we need to remember the same thing. Sure, it stinks to lose on opening day, but the beautiful thing about baseball is that they get to turn around and play again this afternoon. They’d better be ready, because it will be another tough game.

The moral to the story is that in the end, Chicken Little learns to suck it up and stop being – well, a chicken. He learns to have courage and get back out there. Even with the threat of another acorn falling on his head.

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Bruce Chen was the lone bright spot in the Royals 2012 opener. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

It’s very easy to overreact to one game.

The Royals didn’t seem like they could hit much of anything from Jered Weaver and the bullpen gave up five runs in the bottom of the eighth to spoil a solid six innings from Bruce Chen in Anaheim.

Chen was solid, throwing strikes and staying ahead of Angels hitters. In six innings, he never went to a three ball count and struck out four while walking none. After a rough spring, Chen came out working the plate and going after a lineup made up of hitters swinging from the right side and held the Angels scoreless, giving way to Aaron Crow.

Crow stepped in and struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh, mowing down Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols and Torii Hunter. Pujols and Hunter especially looked lost at the plate against Crow. The eighth inning, however, wasn’t as kind to the former first rounder, as three soft singles loaded the bases.

Greg Holland took over, but despite stranding 94% of runners inherited in 2011, all three scored on Friday. An infield chopper from Peter Bourjos allowed the first run to score and kept the bases loaded, and a bases clearing triple from Erick Aybar gave the Angels a cushion. On the big hit, Jeff Francoeur was playing towards center field and couldn’t make it to the spray hit from Aybar.

At the plate, the Royals never figured out Jered Weaver’s slider. The top four batters struck out nine times and went a combined 0-16. The Royals only managed back to back singles in the third inning by Brayan Pena and Alcides Escobar, later adding two hits in the seventh inning with a Jeff Francoeur double and Yuniesky Betancourt single. Francoeur was picked off of second base before Betancourt’s hit, though, but otherwise likely would have scored.

But again, it’s one game out of 162. Greg Holland should be fine. Aaron Crow should be fine. The top four hitters should be fine. If such issues are still present in late May, then concern is warranted. Until then, today’s another day.

In Game 2 of the series, the Royals send Luke Hochevar to face Dan Haren.

Game 1 Scorecard:

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For the most part, it has been since the close of the 2011 and the moves of the offseason that has many chomping at the bit. Add in the fact that ESPN will be showing the game to a national audience although that reason is most likely to show off the Angels free agent signings. For Royals fans though, 9 p.m. Friday is Our Time!

Bruce Chen will toe the rubber and lead Kansas City in game one of 162 games this season where hope reigns eternal. Having the team be relevant past the ASG is what we want as long suffering fans and this might finally be the season that we’ve got hope going into September…and dare I say, October.

Waiting for the late night opening pitch will be tough especially since most of the league will have played already. As colleagues on Kings of Kauffman have written, this feels a lot like Christmas Eve waiting to open your presents. The home opener will be similar. If your team opens on the road, it’s like getting two presents.

We can talk about how the team will do later and for the most part it’s how we’ve spent the offseason. Chen versus Jered Weaver looks like a mismatch on paper, but anything can happen between the lines on the first day.

One game won’t make your season, but with high expectations for once, the team with the youngest Opening Day roster just has me chomping at the bit. I don’t need to tell Royals fans that optimism has been lacking since 1985. We had a strike shortened season in 1994 and the 2003 season with a lot of losing bookending all of this.

Tonight at Angels Stadium is Opening Day in my mind because it’s when OUR Kansas City Royals take the field and begin the climb to make us proud. Find your blue, wear it proud, have friends over or go somewhere to watch the game tomorrow night because 2012 is OUR TIME and I’m beyond excited for tonight!

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We were pleased to feature a trio of local sports commentators on the latest Royalman Report.

Curtis Kitchen covers a bit of everything at CurtisKitchen.com but primarily focuses on the Big XII and Kansas State sports. He also works with 610 sports. He joined us to discuss the Frank Martin escape from Manhattan and the state of KSU basketball.

We then jumped into Royals baseball with Nate Bukaty, who you’ll recognize from his reporting during the Royals pregame and postgame shows. We covered a bit of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game beforehand but then got to talking about the starting rotation, particularly Luis Mendoza‘s potential to continue the success he had last season in Omaha.

Finally we were joined by Robert Ford, who handles the pregame and postgame shows for 610 sports. A key topic was the Yuniesky Betancourt/Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella second base drama.

We finished up with the usual crew talking about the Alex Gordon contract extension.

It was great to have the trio on the show.

A programming note: We don’t have a show scheduled for Sunday night as usual but will be out at Kelly’s Westport Inn on opening day April 6 for a tweet up among Royals fans, Kings of Kauffman readers and Royalman Report listeners. Anyone (21+) in the KC area can hang out and talk some Royals baseball before the Royals take on the Angels, then stay and watch as the season finally gets underway.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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Let’s start with the mea culpa.

Last week I broke downthe spring training performances of various Royals in an attempt to predict which efforts were mirages, and which were real. In any such breakdown, the author will oftentimes end up with egg on their faces. It’s inevitable. Especially when such predictions are delivered with unabashed certainty.

The Royals surprised me (and the rest of the world) by naming Bruce Chen the opening day starter. Allan Henry-US PRESSWIRE

As Kurt Vonnegut would say, “so it goes”.

But sometimes, when the error is so egregious that it cannot be overlooked, the writer of said grossly miscalculated prediction must step forward and offer his condolences to those who took his words at face value.

Now is one of those moments.

Within that aforementioned piece, in the wake of another horrible spring start, I predicted that veteran lefty Chen would begin the season on the disabled list. I went so far as to insinuate that Chen may have been a dubious off-season signing, in lieu of his age and noted lack of “pure stuff”.

Of course, Chen pitched exceedingly well in his next start. So well, in fact, that he was named the opening day starter immediately after the game was over. Suddenly, my hypothesis was more outdated than 1995 Sandra Bullock thriller The Net.

In the matter of a couple of days, Chen was named the opening day starter, Felipe Paulino was (somewhat curiously) placed on the disabled list, and Luis Mendoza laid claim to the final rotation spot. It was also announced, and subsequently lost in shuffle behind the plethora of other moves, that Luke Hochevar would be the starter for the home opener. So it looks like, in a way, Hochevar was rewarded for his stellar second half and strong spring training. I’m happy for Hoch, who has been the most consistent Royals pitcher since last season’s All-Star break. Proof: in the second half of 2011 Hochevar sported a 3.52 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 79.1 innings pitched. Batters combined to OPS .647 against him. With this in mind, I felt that he earned the opening day start for the second consecutive season.

But Chen got the Opening Day nod after a ghastly spring, and the decision was the biggest news of the week. Even with his solid final start, Chen finished spring training with an 11.50 ERA. He gave up 34 hits and 24 runs in 18 innings. Either something was wrong with him physically, or he was still feeling out his arsenal. Turns out it was the latter.

According to manager Ned Yost, Chen didn’t use his overhand fastball at all this spring until his last start. So, yeah.

That helps explain Chen’s wildly inflated spring ERA that hovered around 20 at points this spring, and also helps build the case that I was woefully misinformed to judge three weeks of spring training through box scores and occasional radio broadcasts.

So has my stance on Chen changed since I threw his career to the scrap heap last week?

Sure. With tail firmly between legs, I’d like to apologize to Chen, his family, friends, and acquaintances for throwing him under the proverbial bus last week. Obviously, there were factors I wasn’t aware of that were at play.

That being said: I still think Hochevar deserved to start Opening Day.

Felipe Paulino hits the DL. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

The Royals announced that Felipe Paulino would begin the year on the 15-day disabled list. The right-hander had been part of a six man battle for a five man pitching rotation.

This news comes a day after Ned Yost announced that Bruce Chen would be the opening day starter in Anaheim against the Angels. Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez  will slot in behind him and after the injury, Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy fill in the last two spots.

Paulino worked 11.2 innings in spring, allowing 10 runs and 16 hits. The Royals have the option to backdate his DL stint to Monday. The injury itself is called a “right forearm flexor pronator strain” and Paulino said he felt some tightness.

Of course, this could be an easy fix to stash a pitcher in Omaha to get some rehab starts. I’m sure there is some tightness there, but with Chen, Hochevar and Sanchez locks to make the rotation and Duffy showing some success (and Mendoza’s solid spring numbers), Paulino was looking like a pitcher headed to the bullpen for a long relief role which really doesn’t suit him, as he’s struggled in the bullpen in the past (9.15 ERA in 39.1 innings). Buying time with Paulino on the DL and in Omaha for rehab gives the Royals a chance to evaluate a few turns through the pitching staff and move forward based on how everyone is performing.

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August 8, 2011; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar (44) throws a pitch during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

As we are nearing opening day, a few things should start to clear up.  There are some pieces to the puzzle the Royals still have to figure out, and it’s becoming a guessing game for their fans to try and solve as well.  One thing that is certain, is Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz will be platooning at second base to start the season.  This makes me question so many things, and the move has left a sour taste in the mouths of Royals diehards on Twitter .  In no way can this work in the Royals favor.  But I digress, there’s still many other questions to answer.  Who will be the lefty out of the bullpen?  Who will be the number four and five to fill out the rotation?  Also, who will be the next Royals closer in the wake of Joakim Soria needing his second Tommy John surgery?

Jose Mijares, Tim Collins, Everett Teaford, and Tommy Hottovy are all in the race to be the left-handed reliever out of the pen.  Three out of four of these pitchers have spotless ERAs and Collins has still managed a miniscule 1.08 ERA, at this time.  I think Mijares is the lead dog of the pack simply because he was brought in to be the go-to lefty.  Although, the other three guys are making their cases to start the year on the opening day roster as well.  It does seem possible to me, that two of these four could make the team but I would definitely say no more than that.

I don’t know about all of you, but I have been less than impressed by what I’ve seen out of the starters so far this spring.  I want to clarify that I’m aware the Royals aren’t anywhere near the Phillies or Angels in terms of starting pitching, but I was hoping they would be above adequate this spring.  Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza are the only two guys who have pitched extremely well and there is no guarantee Mendoza even makes the team as a starter.  Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino have all underperformed this spring and aren’t doing much to claim their spots in the rotation.  I know not much weight should be put into spring training stats, but the fact that Chen has given up 27 hits in 12 innings is very disheartening.  It would be nice if a few of these guys pitched like they wanted the job.  That being said, Paulino is pitching his way out and Mendoza is pitching his way into the rotation.  I believe Duffy will start out in the rotation and am looking for Sanchez and Chen to bounce back after very rough springs.  I do not think there is room for Paulino, Duffy, or Mendoza out of the bullpen, if that question comes up, as there is an abundance of arms already out there now.

The starting pitching has been a question mark all off season, but one thing we thought was certain, was the closer’s role.  With the news that Joakim Soria will undergo his second Tommy John surgery, the question remains, who will fill his shoes?  I say  Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, and Jonathan Broxton, in that order.  Holland has the dominating stuff and one of the best sliders in the game, so I feel extremely confident with him in the 9th.  Crow was bestowed upon as the closer for a short amount of time last season and Broxton is coming off some elbow issues but is still capable of returning to his former All-Star self.  I would be okay with any of these relievers, but I’m personally pulling for Holland.

We only have a few more weeks, if not sooner, before we get some of the answers to these questions.  Whatever happens though, I’m sure it will make for some great conversations and playful banter.  Either way, Opening Day is less than two weeks away!

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March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

The optimism is looking a little less enthusiastic right about now. Soria’s out for the year. Salvador Perez is out for half the year. The starting rotation has looked pretty bad in spring training, even everyone’s golden boy Felipe Paulino—wanted to see him shine, felt like he might not, hate being right.

The shine has come off the apple a touch, and the Royals are starting to look a lot like the same team that finished last season—pretty good offense, terrible pitching. Even fan-favorite and potential-filled Danny Duffy was roughed up in his last spring start, no doubt brining on worries that all the talks of mechanical tweaks improving his command were just talk.

But I’ve decided to help boost morale a little. Why? Because I was a little stunned by Duffy. I wasn’t sure how a guy could look as good as he does and still put up bad numbers. I know Luke Hochevar has that problem, but his brain is as fragile as Rush Limbaugh’s grip on reality. Duffy though seems mentally tough. So, I re-watched his last start and saw some things that make me think that Duffy should be ok. I focused on his terrible second inning in which he gave up four runs. Here they are:

• Against the first hitter of the second inning, Duffy dominated. He threw a great 0-1 changeup for a swing-and-miss strike and went right after the hitter 0-2 to get a pop-out in foul territory. Easy and efficient.
• Alex Gordon lost a ball in the sun and essentially gave the Angels an out. It happens in baseball, but it doesn’t make it any easier to hold offenses down. That hitter, Bobby Abreu, eventually doubled to left field on a 3-2 fastball on the outside edge.
• With runners at second and third with one out, Duffy struck out Alberto Callaspo on three pitches. He started four of the first five hitters of the inning out in 0-2 counts. (if Gordon hadn’t lost the ball in the sun this inning would be over)
• Fifth batter of the inning hits a weak looking fly ball to left-center. I was shocked that Gordon didn’t get to it. He reached for it—without diving for some reason—and barely missed it. Two runs came in to score. From there, it falls apart.

If you’re not catching the theme so far, it’s that Duffy had some bad breaks in his last outing. That game could have looked very different if one or two things go his way. I know it’s a pitcher’s job to limit damage when things don’t go his way, but at the same time, a pitcher is going to have a tough luck outing from time to time. Duffy wasn’t wildly inaccurate. He didn’t walk a ton of hitters. He didn’t get hit really hard. He just had some tough breaks.

Actually, I’d say it was a pretty encouraging start. He pitched ahead of many hitters. He used an effective changeup from time to time. He didn’t nibble the way he did last season. It looked like he isn’t afraid of contact so much now. These are the things we want to see from Duffy.

I think he’s headed in the right direction and still expect him to have a much-improved season. Does it mean the Royals rotation problems are solved? No. Paulino hasn’t looked great. Bruce Chen has looked abysmal. Luis Mendoza has looked good, but who knows with him really. But I think Duffy still looks terrific despite some ugly looking numbers. When the season hits, don’t be surprised if he’s looking like the Royals best starting pitcher at times.

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I’m glad you asked. As always, the players I choose to feature are based loosely on their inherent value to the club, as well as a healthy dose of pure unadulterated subjectivity.

The MIRAGE DIVISION

Max Ramirez – Spring stats: .391/.481/.826 with three home runs and 11 RBI’s.

I predicted a while back that Ramirez would get play with the Royals this season, and in the meantime, Salvador Perez’ injury has made that notion a greater possibility. That being said, I find it hard to believe that Ramirez will be a 1.307 OPS player  moving forward.

Instead, it seems like Ramirez is cleaning up in the scenario best suited for him – against quadruple-A pitching. He may well get forty games on the big league roster, but a period of sustained success would be a first in the big leagues.

In the meantime, I’ll air on the side of caution.

Chris Getz – Spring stats: .333/.370/.375 with three stolen bases.

Saying that Getz is due to regress is as drab as saying that the sun is hot. Nonetheless, it is always terrifying to see Getz swing the bat well in spring training because we can never predict what Ned Yost might do under the spell of a couple gritty Getz performances. Just know this: the closer we get to the regular season, the more likely it becomes that Yost picks Getz to man second base over the struggling Johnny Giavotella (who we’ll get to later).

Mitch Maier – Spring stats: .333/.394/.500 with four extra base hits.

See Getz, Chris.

Maier has always had the innate ability to crush the ball during spring training, but so far it has never translated into consistent regular season success. He’ll probably make the team again, but his .894 spring training OPS should not illicit much optimism. Maier will be 30 in June and he’s more likely to regress at this point than make significant strides I’d love to be wrong on that though.

Wil Myers – Spring stats: .278/.278/.278 with no extra base hits

Myers wasn’t in camp long enough to form a solid opinion on, so I’ll provide you with an unsupported one. Despite hitting for zero power this spring, Myers is due for a breakout season at AAA Omaha. He’s the best of the hitting prospects left at the minor league level, and he should be more comfortable beginning his second season in the outfield. I think Myers will display enough power to go with his sweet swing to earn a late-season promotion.

Salvador Perez – Spring stats: .000/.000/.000

Salvador Perez will miss the first half of the season with a knee injury. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

This is an easy one. Perez suffered through a wild spring training that saw him sign a club friendly contract extension, promptly go 0-15 in his first spring training at-bats, and then suffer a knee injury that will cost him at least the first two months of the season. Admittedly, all those zeroes across the board are pretty jarring.

Perez’ spring was a mirage, though, because I expect him to be a reliable player moving forward. His bat, which looked too good to be true during his call-up last season, was too bad to be true during his miniscule spring sample size. His offense should eventually be more than capable as a supporting skill behind his stellar defense.

The Royals will closely monitor Perez as he rehabs this injury and he should be re-installed as a lynchpin of the organization by the All-Star break.

Tommy Hottovy – 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Great story, seems like a great kid. The peripherals are there too. It’s funny, we aren’t supposed to take too much stock in spring training stats, unless of course there is competition at a position. Then those stats suddenly become a deciding factor in the shaping of the roster. Hottovy has been excellent this spring, but that doesn’t mean he’s making the team. There are simply too many other players ahead of him, even with the almost certain extended loss of closer Joakim Soria.

-Mike Montgomery – 20.50 ERA, 2.2 IP, 1 strikeout, 3 walks.

Montgomery was simply too bad to be believed in his limited time with the big club this spring. Royals Nation now just has to hope that Monty can avoid the type of early season swoon that submarined his 2011 campaign.

Even with the struggles, however, Montgomery is arguably the best arm in the Royals farm system, and he’ll get plenty more chances. I think he’ll pull himself together and make his major league debut during 2012.

-Jonathan Sanchez – 21.00 ERA, 3.0 IP, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

If Sanchez’ spring is not an aberration, then may God have mercy on my soul. Sanchez has made Bruce Chen look like Steve Carlton in managing to pitch only three innings this spring. Sanchez has, however, packed  a lot of work into those innings, giving up seven runs and walking two batters during what has been a disastrous introduction to Royals fans.

Something tells me Dayton Moore is not in a rush to get Sanchez signed to an extension.

The Real Division

Billy Butler – .415/.478/.732 with 3 home runs, 4 doubles, and 7 walks.

Butler has been clinical this spring in what has been a welcome continuation of his late-season surge in 2011. He is absolutely mashing right now, and seems poised to become a feared hitter this season.

In fact, Butler even showed up to  camp in good enough shape to convince Yost to give him an occasional start at first base. He appears ready to put together is best season yet. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

Alex Gordon – .405/.460/.643 with 2 home runs, 4 doubles and 6 walks.

Any lingering reservations about the long-term ability of Gordon should be put to rest by his torrid spring. I won’t take too much time breaking down Gordon, since I’m fairly sure that 99.9% of the fan base saw last season as a true breakout, but I must admit it’s been nice of him to spare us a spring worth of questions regarding his long-term prospects. This guy is ready to be the star he was always supposed to be.

Lorenzo Cain – .486/.537/.1000 with 4 home runs, 7 doubles, and 4 walks.

Lorenzo Cain's big Spring Training has been the real deal. Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

I thought Cain was too good for Triple-A last season and his scorching spring training performance this season will be taken as proof of that notion. Cain may be the most impressive Royal in Arizona right now, as his .500 spring average has just been ridiculous. I don’t think Lorenzo lamented playing in Omaha last season while Chris Getz and Mitch Maier earned major league paychecks. Oh wait, no, he definitely did.

Cain is proving that there is no fire quite like the one lit under somebody who is blocked for an entire season by wholly insufficient roster filler. Although even Cain must have understood how crazy it was that all three of KC’s outfielders had career years and stayed healthy throughout 2011.

Eric Hosmer – .367/.431/.571 with 2 homers, 4 doubles, 7 walks, and 17 RBI.

At this point it has almost become a bore to wax eloquently about Hosmer. He is one of a handful of the best young players in the game, and has also solidified himself as a clubhouse leader to boot. Interesting fact that made me like Hosmer even more this spring: he is half Cuban, and thus bilingual. It wasn’t hard to understand why Hosmer is the most popular player on the team before, but now it makes even more sense.

All that being said, is there a player you would trade Hosmer for straight up right now? I say no.

Greg Holland – 3.86 ERA with 7.0 IP, 11 strikeouts and 1 walk.

This spring Holland has shown exactly what he is. He’s a strikeout machine who is a could easily become a top-flight closer, perhaps as soon as this season. Holland is also the main reason why Royals fans seemed strangely ambivalent about the loss of closer Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery.

The bullpen should be one of the best in baseball this season, and Holland is the best of the bunch.

Alcides Escobar – .324/.359/.459 with 2 triples.

I’ve always believed that Escobar will eventually hit acceptably, so I can only hope that his spring performance is a sign of things to come. If so, then Escobar’s recently minted contract extension might be even more favorable than that of (recently injured) starting catcher Salvador Perez.

Luis Mendoza – 0.77 ERA with 11.2 IP, 12 strikeouts, and 1 walk.

Okay, I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Admittedly, I’ve frequently written Mendoza off as a rotation candidate before, but those days are over. The Royals have been insistent in their assertion that Mendoza has it figured out, and I finally believe them.

Furthermore, if Mendoza was “in the mix” for a rotation spot coming into March, then what has he possibly done to hurt his chances? Do I even need to mention that two Royals starters have put up an ERA over 20?

My prediction: Bruce Chen starts the season on the DL, Mendoza makes the rotation.

Bruce Chen – 15.00 ERA with 12 IP, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

Spoiler Alert! I think Chen might have some sort of injury, and if not, needs to fabricate on immediately. That two-year contract he signed in the off-season has an ominous feeling to it already. After a couple of above average seasons, Chen may be ready to become the rotation’s resident albatross.  I’d like to think he is simply taking time getting comfortable, but at his advanced age, it’s prudent to be skeptical. I hope I’m wrong.

Mike Moustakas – .216/.275/.243 with 1 extra base hit and 9 strikeouts.

Moustakas has had a rough spring, as is evidenced by the fact that his slugging percentage rest 32 points below his OBP.

Haven’t we seen this story before? I know it’s tempting to say that Moustakas will simply get through this and pick up where he left off last September, but I have a foreboding feeling that tells me otherwise. Moustakas may end up being more Alex Gordon than Billy Butler, as in, he might take some time to realize his considerable potential. Sure, he should be able to improve upon his Spring Training line (how could you not), but by how much*?

*Was that previous paragraph designed as  a complicated jinx intended to spark Moustakas into a fantastic April? Absolutely! I’m definitely ready for Opening Day.

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Dayton hasn't had a good week. It's getting to me. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Eight days ago, Salvador Perez was diagnosed with a torn meniscus.

Joakim Soria found ligament damage in his elbow and is likely headed for Tommy John surgery.

In response to the hole at catcher, the Royals traded what some consider a top-20 prospect in Kevin Chapman for a catcher who wasn’t even going to make the Astros and a 30-year-old outfielder who didn’t get any kind of full-time action until last year. And Chapman might not be the only prospect the Royals give up.

It’s a move that has many fans scratching their heads and others in baseball questioning the wisdom of the deal, too.

More AL Exec: “Quintero’s going to get squeezed out, makes 7 figures, and you give up a real prospect for him?”

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) March 22, 2012

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said that the player to be named later would be a key to the Quintero deal. The implications behind that amaze me. Quintero, among the worst players in the game at getting on base, being a piece of the trade is fine. The Royals needed a catcher that wouldn’t be a liability behind the plate until Perez could return. No problem. I’m not even too sore about losing Kevin Chapman, who has real skills but has to harness them to be productive. He’ll probably have a career as a lefty middle relief guy with Matt Thornton upside for a couple of years. It’s not a crime to give him up.

But this player to be named later business is increasingly worrying. Usually, a PTBNL isn’t much. They’re just someone to plug into the lineup somewhere in the minors most of the time. But because recently signed players aren’t eligible to be traded. Recently signed players such as 2011 draft picks. Just the thought of some speculation concerns me.

But the week gets worse still.

The Royals most important pitching prospect, Mike Montgomery, has already been jettisoned back to minor league camp with no further shot to make the team out of spring training and no signs of improvement from last year’s dismal year.

To top it off, Bruce Chen got destroyed against the White Sox today and hasn’t had a decent outing yet. And he’s signed for two seasons. Oh, Danny Duffy got hammered as well.

Not Dayton Moore’s best week.

It’s a bit frustrating, especially considering the optimism entering spring training. Perhaps the optimism even makes it more disappointing to see certain aspects of the team continue to flounder. At least before nobody really thought there was progress in the near future. Royals fans could focus on the koan of “one of these years” while accepting their suffering.

My biggest fear is that there’s a solid chance that the Royals open this season with Johnny Giavotella and Danny Duffy in Omaha. I’ve railed against Luis Mendoza before but he’s performing. The Royals are pretty much stuck with Chen though, unless he’s just so awful that they can’t avoid dumping him (not that they would because of that second year on his contract and all).

Moore signed Yuniesky Betancourt, and while I accept the premise that if his name was Jeff Betancourt or Yuniesky Smith and had the exact same attributes, I’d be less offended, it’s still Yuniesky Betancourt, and everybody knows who he is as a player. And he might end up being the opening day second baseman. Or it might be Chris Getz, who has changed his batting stance and is hitting this spring. My issue is that players rarely change who they are after a certain point and Getz is past that point. Maybe he’s figured something out, but odds are he hasn’t. Giavotella won’t improve defensively beyond what experience in the big leagues can give him. It’s clear who he’ll be with the glove. That makes it all the more important that he works out how to hit major league pitching because that’s where his value lies.

But Giavotella, with sporadic playing time, hasn’t hit that well. He drove in a run today against the Angels with a single. He’s still hitting just .220, so he’s not doing himself any favors. If he hits for the next two weeks of spring, he’s a cinch to open up in Los Angeles on April 6, but if he’s only made slight progress, I wouldn’t put it past the Royals to keep Getz and Betancourt platooning at second. Giavotella can go back to crushing Triple A pitching and staying stagnant.

March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy (23) throws against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

The same goes with Duffy. Though now that Soria is out, the Royals may be able to keep all six of the potential five starters (be sending one of Felipe Paulino or Mendoza to the bullpen), if that’s not an option, Duffy, with options, will go back to Omaha. I still don’t see Mendoza keeping this up into the season, but to this point, he’s managed to keep building on last year’s numbers and if it’s between he or Duffy, Mendoza’s winning.

That’s not to say that Duffy’s been as bad as the 7.56 ERA he sports now. He’s had two bad innings out of 8.1 pitched this spring, he’s striking batters out and hasn’t had bad control. Today’s second inning is a great example of how numbers can sometimes deceive when not viewed in the proper context.

Duffy opened up the second inning by getting Vernon Wells to pop out for the first out. Kendrys Morales came up for his first at bat of spring and didn’t make solid contact on a pitch, but it was placed well enough to get into right field for a single. Bobby Abreu got to two strikes then fouled a pitch off towards the left field foul line. Alex Gordon went over and had plenty of time but lost it in the sun. It fell foul, but prolonged the at bat. Abreu doubled. After a strikeout by Alberto Callaspo for the second out, Chris Iannetta doubled in both Morales and Abreu, then scored himself after an Erick Aybar single and Howie Kendrick triple.

If Gordon catches the foul ball, though, Callaspo’s strikeout ends the inning and Duffy doesn’t give up a run. It wasn’t ruled an error – plays in the sun rarely are, especially on foul balls – but if it were, reconstructing the inning would compel the official scorer to deem all runs unearned. Duffy had another unearned run in the first after a passed ball allowed Kendrick to advance from second to third. He scored on a ground out to short that would have kept him on second.

No, those circumstances don’t excuse Duffy from giving up the runs. He still gave up the hits after Callaspo’s strike out (though he also had a two strike pitch to Iannetta called a ball that looked like a strike as well and would have avoided all the trouble he ran into on the next pitch and beyond).

Despite that, and despite his being the most talented pitcher the Royals have in the rotation mix, it’s probably going to chase him to the minors where he has nothing else to learn.

I guess right now I’m having a crisis of confidence in Dayton Moore to make the decisions necessary to put developing, talented players in a position to continue to develop and exhibit their talent. His wonky moves aren’t helping. Nevermind the redundancy that is Jason Bourgeois (who is faster than Mitch Maier but not as fast as Jarrod Dyson, and who hits better than Dyson but not Maier). While I also liked the Jonathan Broxton signing, it’s an odd use of $4 million when the Royals have an overflowing bullpen as it is.

Can anyone talk me off the ledge?

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Is Joakim Soria's sore elbow a sign of the Royals luck running out? Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Royals were fortunate to have a full and healthy team for virtually the entire season. A few pitchers hit the disabled list, but Bruce Chen was the most significant of the bunch. Matt Treanor was the only position player to miss time (if you ignore Jason Kendall who never came off the 60 day DL) and that even led to the eventual call up of Salvador Perez.

Often, such strings of luck snap back – rapidly – to the norm.

Teams always struggle to prevent injuries. Pitch counts are designed to limit the wear on a pitcher’s arm. Catchers routinely get more off days than other players. A small injury usually leads to a day off to play it safe.

Sometimes, though, there’s nothing you can do and the Royals are running into that problem now early in spring training.

First Paulo Orlando and Manuel Pina were hurt. Orlando’s organizational depth so the impact isn’t that great and while the injury (sports hernia) isn’t of the same severity of a torn ACL (not to downplay the injury – a sports hernia can NOT be comfortable for anyone), he should return sometime this season. Pina turned his knee while his cleats were stuck and tore his right meniscus. Surgery repaired the injury and he’ll miss all of spring, but again, the impact wasn’t great at the time because he was projected as the starting catcher in Omaha and it would take injuries at the big league level to have him in Kansas City.

Fast forward to Salvador Perez suffering the same injury (to the other knee) and the problem becomes larger. Perez, understood as the franchise catcher after signing a contract that could keep him in Kansas City until 2019, has a recovery time of 12-14 weeks. He’ll miss about half the season if all goes well. Pina could be of use before then, but now, the Royals have to find someone to fill in with Brayan Pena behind the plate.

Before Perez got hurt, the Royals got a scare from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Both are fine, but there was enough reason to hold both out from playing the field for precautionary reasons.

After this weekend, the Royals ran into what could be two other rough injuries.

Blake Wood was pulled from a game against the Padres in the middle of a batter. He’s supposedly out 10-14 days while the injury is evaluated.

I know what you might be thinking. “It’s just Blake Wood.” True, he doesn’t have the flash that Kelvin Herrera or Greg Holland do, but in 2011, Wood was a perfectly acceptable reliever. A few blown leads here and there in 2010 seem to have stuck in the minds of some fans. With more experience in the big leagues than most of his bullpen mates and coming off of a 3.75 ERA in 2011 (and 8 K/9) over 69.2 innings, Wood was a decent bet to make the team again. Now, after the injury and a bullpen that’s notably crowded, he might not get that chance. The Royals have other options, but the depth is nice.

It’s especially nice after Sunday’s news that Joakim Soria is having soreness in his right elbow as well. After his rough 2011 season, the Royals were hoping for a bounceback year. According to comments to Bob Dutton after Sunday’s game, Soria felt good before the game but felt discomfort after a couple of pitches and left the game.

His comments don’t seem to indicate that he had any pain beforehand, but his performance this spring hasn’t been good to this point. There weren’t any reported injury problems last season while he struggled early on, and he rebounded and had a reasonable stat line. He’s given up ten hits in 3.1 innings, so something’s not right. Robert Ford pointed out that he’s unlike other closers since he doesn’t rely on the velocity other pitchers have and he may not be as fine with his command right now. Soria told Dutton that “I wasn’t finishing my pitches” so perhaps pain held him back.

At any rate, it’s not good.

The Royals will find out more in a few days, but the injury bug may be a theme this season. An unusually healthy year last year isn’t any guarantee that things will regress and they’ll see more injuries or less. As a younger team, they’re probably less likely to get hurt due to less wear and tear. Some may point to a change in training staff and an increased willingness to sit a player rather than having them play through it (which ruined Mike Aviles‘s 2009 season).

There are players with some injury history on this team. Jonathan Broxton was available for the Royals because of his injuries getting him pushed out of Los Angeles. If Soria’s out, he takes a more prominent role in the bullpen. Bruce Chen has suffered a number of injuries over the years and is the oldest player on the team. He’s not a sure bet to stay healthy all year. Alex Gordon‘s run into an injury here or there and Lorenzo Cain sprained his knee in 2009 and missed half his season in the minors and Hosmer and Moustakas have had some small things (Hosmer had a hand injury in 2009 that hasn’t been an issue since, Moose opened 2010 on the DL with a strained oblique).

So nobody’s safe. The Royals have built a system where they’ll leave some players in Omaha who could contribute at the big league level, so they’re equipped if the injury bug starts biting. The best case, of course, is that those moves don’t become necessary.

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Kansas City Royals pitcher Luis Mendoza. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

The top three rotation spots are already solidified.  Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen, and Luke Hochevar will  lead the staff as the top three starters.  That leaves the Royals to fill two more spots as we head into April, with Opening Day looming.  Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino were who I initially thought would fill out the latter part of the rotation.  However, I’m pleasantly surprised with the spring that Luis Mendoza has put together so far, and he seems to have firmly tossed his name in the race.  It would be great if he continued to perform and make this a very difficult decision for Manager Ned Yost but we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez have been poor to start the spring, but that doesn’t mean we should be panicking.  Chen is currently sporting a 9.64 ERA and has given up nine hits and five earned runs in only 4.2 innings of work.  It’s early in the spring and because he is a veteran and knows how to pick himself up, I’m confident he will still be a reliable starter for the Royals this season.  Sanchez hasn’t been aided with much defensive help but has still given up three earned runs in one inning of work.  On the plus side, he did not give up a walk in that inning but was still roughed up for four hits.  I’m not going to put too much stock in their performances thus far but I will be expecting some noticeable progression from the two, as we close out March.

Luke Hochevar has continued with his improvements from the last half of the season last year into this spring and had a good outing in his first spring start.  Over five innings he has allowed only two runs while striking out three.  I think it’s finally the year where Hochevar stamps his name as a competent top of the rotation starter.  I do not think he will ever be an Ace or a true number one, but I believe he can be a very good two or three for a contending team.

Danny Duffy really impressed in his first time out this spring.  He recorded five straight strike outs and did not allow a single base runner in his two innings so far.  I would love for Duffy to be a dominant backend guy the Royals can count on this year.  I still believe he is going to have his bumps in the road as the season advances, but I’m confident he will earn a spot out of Spring Training, especially if he continues to show flashes of brilliance like we saw only a few days ago.

That leaves one more rotation spot up for grabs, and I think Felipe Paulino has the slight edge over Luis Mendoza at this point.  While Mendoza has impressed, in my opinion, this spot is Paulino’s to lose.  Mendoza has started two games and went a combined six innings giving up zero runs and striking out four while only walking one.  If he keeps this up, it will be hard to deny him a rotation spot but if that doesn’t happen he could still be a long reliever out of the gate for this team.  Paulino, in his one start hasn’t given up a run in his two innings, but did allow three hits and only struck out one batter.  He still has done nothing to lose the spot, and while it’s very early, I expect him to be the final starter, assuming Duffy takes the 4th spot.

It certainly will be an entertaining end to the spring as we will find out who will fill out the last two rotation spots.  I hope Mendoza continues to pitch the way he has and maybe force the Royals hand to put him on the Opening Day 25 man roster.  It’s still a viable option that he is one of the first guys looked at for a spot start, or something along those lines, at some point throughout the season.  Either way, we have been blessed with some good outings by most of the guys so far, and there’s still time for Chen and Sanchez to start pitching like we would expect them to, in time for Opening Day.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Jordan McLaughlin on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

Jason Parks was kind enough to join the Royalman Report for discussion about the team’s performance through the first week of spring training games, including his impressions of  Bruce Chen, Bubba Starling and Mike Montgomery (among others). He’s not a fan of Chen’s and said that Bubba Starling might not have great odds to make the big leagues. How bad are those odds? Well, Jason explains.

You can follow Jason on Twitter at @ProfessorParks and read his work on Baseball Prospectus. If you’re interested in his first appearance on the podcast, that episode is archived for your listening enjoyment.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler, 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and Sam Sapenaro of the K Crew and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Kevin Kouzmanoff had reason to smile on Monday afternoon after a walkoff double. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Remember how it seemed like the Royals were winning games in walkoff fashion twice a week last season? I guess old habits die hard.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ripped a pinch hit double to center field with two outs, scoring Mike Moustakas and winning run Wil Myers in the bottom of the ninth in the Royals second spring training game.

Players mobbed Kouzmanoff as the Royals finished off a comeback from an early 5-0 and 6-1 deficit.

Bruce Chen had the start with two innings of work planned, but gave up hits to 7 of the 12 batters he faced. Just one of the hits he gave up all day went for extra bases, but in the first inning a throwing error by Johnny Giavotella allowed Elvis Andrus to score from first on a single by Adrian Beltre. Ian Kinsler scored on the play as well as Beltre moved up to second, then scored after two more hits. Chen opened the second inning by getting a ground out but a Kinsler single followed by an Andrus triple got him in trouble. After Josh Hamilton made the second out of the inning, Ned Yost pulled Chen in favor of right-handed Louis Coleman to face Beltre, who singled, driving in Andrus.

After Jeff Francoeur and Lorenzo Cain hit back to back doubles to put the Royals on the board, the Rangers got the run back after two singles and a double off Mike Montgomery.

Montgomery wasn’t sharp in his first outing of spring – he threw just 18 strikes in 32 pitches – but he was able to induce a ground ball double play in his first inning and retired the Rangers in order in his second and last inning of work. Chris Dwyer also pitched and handled Texas. He did walk a batter, but nobody got a hit and he struck Luis Hernandez out looking on a slow curve.

The Royals scored twice in the fifth after an Alcides Escobar triple and Alex Gordon homer, then again in the sixth after Derrick Robinson punched a single through the infield with the bases loaded. Then, after three straight walks (and a 5-2 forceout/tagout) in the ninth, Kouzmanoff delivered his walk off shot.

Eric Hosmer had two singles and Wil Myers scored twice. Blake Wood, who’d shut down the Rangers with two ground outs and a strike out on six pitches, got the win.

The Royals have split squad action tomorrow, with games against the Padres and Indians both kicking off at 2:05 CST. Luke Hochevar and Will Smith (respectively) will start and are scheduled for two innings in their games. Jake Odorizzi and Noel Arguelles are also scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

3/5/12 Scorecard:

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

On the day before the first Royals spring training game, we gathered on a Saturday night for an episode of the Royalman Report where we discussed the Royals camp news to that point, the addition of Bruce Chen (@ChenMusic) and Willie Aikens (@WAikens) to Twitter and some of the best tweets from Royals players this spring. We also talked at length about Salvador Perez, his extension, and his potential on the team now and going into the future.

We also got minor league pitcher Brooks Pounders on the line and asked him about his experience of being traded, the differences in approach between the Pirates and Royals, and his training with Alan Jaeger and long-toss regimen. Of course we had to talk about the relationships and friendships between players in camp and the enthusiasm that seems to be carrying from the big league team all the way to the lower levels of the minors. And the name – Fake Ned wouldn’t let him go without asking him about the name.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler, 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and Sam Sapenaro of the K Crew and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

Subscribe via the RSS feed and get updates when new episodes are uploaded.

Stuck in a cubicle, on a road trip, or using your smartphone?  Stitcher is a multi-platform radio app that’s available on Apple products, Droid, Blackberry and other phones.  Find us here on Stitcher.

You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

Follow the Royalman Report on Twitter.  While you’re at it, track down Kings of Kauffman on Twitter as well.

Bruce Chen has become the latest Royal to pick up Twitter. Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Bruce Chen just joined Twitter at the behest of Nick Wright at 610 Sports, and if you’re on the social networking site, you realize it has caused quite the wave within Royal Nation.

If you’re not on Twitter, well then, you’re missing out. After witnessing the uproar of approval caused by Chen’s introduction to the Twitterverse, a single impenetrable thought occurred to me.

If you call yourself a Royals fan, then you have to be on Twitter.

There’s no way around it anymore. Sure it was fun to be a Twitter hater for a while, to bemoan the impending death of the English language, to condemn this social media as yet another source of mindless rot.

Trust me, I know the arguments. I am a recovering Twitter hater myself. But when I finally dropped the preconceived notions and gave it a real chance, I realized all that I had been missing.

Sure, Twitter can be like a gossip site. But it can also be like a news wire.

There is so much access, such an incredible archive of information, that it’s impossible to soak it all in. I follow athletes, sports writers, comedians, actors, friends, and colleagues.

Before you say “I don’t care to know what everybody in the world had for lunch” or something to that effect,  consider the reality of the situation. These people who you’ve chosen to follow, at your own discretion and based off your own interests, are often tweeting news articles, poignant or funny videos, pictures, and observations. The fact that they also tweet what they ate for lunch is merely a bonus.

As I alluded to earlier, The Kansas City Royals have a strong presence on Twitter. The Royals figure to have among the youngest teams in baseball, so that’s no surprise. But with a strong local media contingent in Surprise, Arizona for the opening of spring training, the fodder has been especially rich.

I know that ultimately, my words alone can’t convince you of the relevance of Twitter. That’s why I’ve compiled the following list of the ten best tweets to come out of camp in Surprise. Don’t worry, I’ll also provide context when necessary. I’ve also attached the players’ (and organization’s) Twitter handles in parentheses for your reference.

10. Fox Sports KC (FSKansasCity):

Sights & sounds from #Royals camp: Danny Duffy messes w/ Everett Teaford during a clubhouse interview: http://youtu.be/WECcGrrBYJU.

For this tweet, you really need to watch the accompanying video. It’s a short bit, but I think it says something about the clubhouse chemistry. Teaford is giving a straight-faced interview response about starters going deep into games when an off-camera Danny Duffy starts messing with him. Teaford doesn’t skip a beat, delivers some quality deadpan humor, and the scene seemed to bode well for clubhouse chemistry. Nothing earth shattering, but a fun little video.

9. Wil Myers (@wilmyers):

#MLB camp has been a great experience so far. Tons of talent in this organization and working hard to help contribute!

You have to like the attitude Myers has taken in MLB Spring Training. He’s almost a mortal lock to start in Omaha, but it’s still nice to see him saying the right things coming off his success in the Arizona Fall League. All signs point to him being a fast riser this season.

8. Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc):

(1) Just chatted w/Sal Perez. Says he called his mom, Yilda Diaz last night and told her to get a water and sit down” (2) Told her about contract and his mom cried. Says they talked on phone for three hours and neither slept much last night.”

This is just a cool anecdote that Fox Sports KC’s Goldberg  was able to parlay directly to his followers, albeit in two separate tweets. There was frankly a lot to like with the Perez contract from the Royals’ perspective, so it’s nice to see that the security of the deal is a game-changer for Sal as well. Goldberg provides his Twitter followers with some nice emotional context from Perez, and it helps explain why Perez agreed to the deal. For fans, it’s a win-win of information and emotional pull.

7. Eric Hosmer (@hos3kc):

If you were absent during our struggles don’t expect to be present during our success #ourtime

Kings of Kaufman’s Brett Christie wrote a piece about the Hosmer tweet earlier this week that summed up the importance of this one. Hosmer has obviously embraced this season’s slogan of “Our Time”, and that is a good thing. One of the pitfalls of Twitter, however, is that the 140-character limit on tweets can sometimes leave a contextual void. Hosmer’s comment caused a brief stir, although he later apologized (via Twitter) and said he didn’t mean the tweet as a knock on fans.

6. Robert Ford (raford3):

Danny Duffy’s delivery definitely looks smoother & easier to repeat. Doing a good job of keeping the ball down #Royals

Here’s an example of the raw information that can be obtained through Twitter. Robert Ford provides excellent analysis for 610 Sports, and he is definitely worth a follow. I had been hoping that the mechanical adjustments Duffy has been explaining in his various media interviews was something tangible, and Ford’s observation here seems to back Duffy up. For a guy with as much talent as Duffy, a smooth, repeatable delivery could turn him into a star sooner rather than later.

5. Everett Teaford (@teaparty61):

How do I know I am uninteresting? @ChenMusic has more followers then me in less time then 1 practice!

Everett Teaford has a great sense of humor, so this tweet was in good taste. And it was true. Chen’s followers skyrocketed after his introduction to Twitter. I guess I also like the notion of Royals players competing for Twitter followers. It seems like a friendly competition between the guys, and as far as I’m concerned it harmless fun. Plus, only one practice for Chen to surpass Teaford? His Twitter potential might be greater than I had previously suspected.

4. Bruce Chen (@chenmusic):

(1) “This is my first tweet ever! (2) “Does this mean that I lost my tweetirginity?

Bruce Chen’s first tweets simply had to be included in this list. Chen has long been a fun personality inside the locker room and possesses considerable Twitter potential. The story of how Nick Wright (@getnickwright) convinced Chen to join is also worth telling, and it can be found easily on Wright’s previously linked Twitter feed. Just saying.

3. -Danny Duffy (dduffkc23):

Bury me a Royal

Here is an example of the simple beauty of Twitter. Duffy is another player who has wholly embraced the “Our Time” mentality, and it has been fun to watch. His enthusiasm for this season just seems infectious.

2. Aaron Crow (@acrow43):

I would give anything to go back to college and have to opportunity to pitch against ku tomorrow and shove it up their @$$

As a KU alum, I can say without remorse that this was a classic tweet. There was some pure emotion in there, and he showed ingenuity and creativity with his use of the dollar signs. In the afterglow of Kansas’ incredible come from behind overtime victory over Mizzou, the emotions were understandable.

1. Sam Mellinger (@mellinger):

Overheard before today’s intrasquad, from @Hos3KC to @ChenMusic: “Gimme a first-pitch fastball and I’ll mention you on Twitter. #Royals

This tweet essentially encompasses everything I like about Twitter. Mellinger heard some playful banter that wasn’t going to be the center piece of a column and offered it up to Twitter. It’s a legitimately funny line from Hosmer, who is playing off Chen’s new-found presence on Twitter as well as his own soaring popularity. Everyone just seems excited to play baseball. As a fan, It’s a perfect piece of information to digest on Twitter.

So what are you waiting for?

You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.

The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

A random meeting in the Kauffman Stadium Team Store led Troy “Royalman” Olsen to meet Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo. After a brief conversation, J.J. agreed to join us on the Royalman Report and this is the result.

Picollo discussed the things the Royals are looking at in Surprise during spring training, who he expects to bounce back, and who the Royals hope to see big breakouts from. He also discussed the impact of the new CBA on the Royals draft strategies going into 2012. The team’s thoughts behind the Yuniesky Betancourt signing and reflections on negotiations with Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson were also addressed.

We also checked in with Joel Goldberg about what the players are doing down in Arizona. He gave us his insight into the internal competitions between players and keeping spring training from getting boring (especially when it’s all drills early on). He also talked about how some of the pitchers looked and who might sneak into the rotation.

This week’s Fake Ned Minute is a little blue, so we’ll call it not safe for work, but he redeemed himself by producing a fantastic bit with Mike McCartney that takes off of a famous scene from a famous baseball movie. Definitely look for that after the Goldberg segment. Fake Ned also paid off a lost bet.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler, 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and Sam Sapenaro of the K Crew and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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You can also subscribe via iTunes: JUST CLICK HERE (and iPad, iPhone, iTouch users can get the Livestream app here to watch live or archived shows).

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