First, let’s recall the Greinke bullpen move success.  He moved to the bullpen after leaving baseball for awhile and was quite good out of the pen for the Royals in 2007.  He went from a guy with a low 90s fastball to a mid 90s guy who could reach back and get a 97 or 98 when needed.  In 2008 when he headed back into the rotation, Greinke lost some of the velocity that he showed in the pen, which is to be expected, but his overall velocity was improved from his time before the switch.  Now his fastball was sitting 93 or so and he still showed the ability to go up and hit 96 or 97 at times.  Wade Davis showed the velocity gain in his transition to relief, but this year has not been able to maintain any of the gains when starting again.

The Fangraphs velocity chart may show something even worse.  Last year Davis’ fastball averaged 93.7 MPH, and toward the end of the year was sitting above 95 consistently.  This also lead to a massive spike in strike out rate from 5.14K/9 in 2011 to 11.13 last year.  Looking at this year, his velocity is back down to an average fastball just above 91 MPH.  That is his lowest average ever.  Now it does show that his velocity tends to tick up a bit as the season wears on as a starter and as a reliever, so maybe he will be 92 to 93 in the middle of summer.  If that happens though, that would be more in line with 2010 and 11 when he was a back of the rotation guy at best, and his strike out rate this year is showing the same sitting at 6.64 per 9.

There has been a major change to his pitch mix.  He has been using a cutter that he hadn’t thrown in the past.  Davis has thrown the cutter 16 to 19 percent of the time and so his two and four seam fastballs have been used a lot less.  None of his pitches have done very well based on pitch values and most of this comes from an increased line drive and home run rate.  One of the problems with the cutter, in my opinion anyway, is that it might make his change up less effective.  The speed differential between the two pitches is only about 2 MPH, 88 down to 86, so the batters may not be thrown off by the change at all.  Part of that might also be because his change has been on average 1 MPH faster than last year too.

For Davis to be effective like last year something is going to need to change.  Right now he looks way too much like the bad Wade Davis that Tampa Bay took out of their rotation and nothing like the good Wade Davis they had in their bullpen last year.  The answer is probably not as simple as getting away from the cutter, but that may be one place to start.  Hopefully as summer comes his velocity will come back as it has before and help some, but it would be nice to see him show some signs that the successes of 2012 in the pen can be moved into the starting role.

From the chart you can see that the Royals have mostly been scoring well above or well below their average.  With an average of slightly below four and a half and a fairly normal distribution you would expect the most common outcome of a game to be in the four or five run categories, the two closest to average.  That is not the case.  The most common out come is three runs or two runs, and six and nine have happened more often than four and five.  This is a pretty skewed distribution.

Last year the distribution did have some of the same characteristics if you look at the next chart, but there were a lot more four run games, and a maximum of 11, which the Royals have already matched and exceeded this year.  The five, six, and seven run games last year showed up more often than one or two run games, but so far this year they only equal the two run game total.  What this says to the optimist and statistician in me is that as our sample of games for 2013 grows, this distribution will become more normally distributed.  For that to happen it would mean a lot more four to seven run games in lieu of one to three run games.  Also, the Royals have a winning record (dead on their Pythagorean expectation to boot) despite all of the low scoring games, so this could indicate a lot of good to come.

That’s the record James Shields had after his first 8 games started in 2012.

We talk all the time on here about how overvalued the “W’ is as a statistic, but unfortunately, the world we live in still hasn’t seemed to consider the ridiculous ways an individual gains a “win” or a “loss.” Michael talked last week about the way Shields’ record seemed “Grienkesque” in the way he’s compiled a 2-3 record despite an ERA of 2.48 with 53 strikeouts and 14 walks

Guess what Shields’ record was after his first 8 games in 2011?

3-1 (ERA – 2.08) 51 SO and 13 walks

There are some conflicting statistics here. Shields’ 2011 and 2013 stats are very similar and yet the discrepancy in record is pretty glaring. 7-1 to 3-5.

However, in the first 8 games of 2012, James had an E.R.A that was actually more than an entire run higher than his current progress. The difference? In 2011 and 2013, Shields was getting an average of 4.125 runs per game from his offense. In 2011, it just worked out that he was on the right side of the fence. In 2012, Shields, though still good, wasn’t anywhere near his current progress. However, his offense was averaging 5.125 runs a game.

All of this to say, I’m kind of bummed out that James has been getting slapped with so many losses. Not because I think anything of the “win,” but because I hear too many people talking about “wins” and “losses” as if they are the one thing that defines a pitcher’s success.

It gives me a headache.

So to all of you people, Shields has had a great start to the year. Don’t be morons. If a pitcher is good, it makes sense that he would probably have more wins than losses when the season ends. If he pitches well and his team provides him any sort of offense, he’s likely to do all right in that department.

However, if his team is struggling offensively (as the Royals have been this season, though it looks like they brought their bats to the game against the Angels last night) then it’s not too unbelievable to see James hang a 3-5 record through the first 8 games of the season.

Just stop acting like his record is important and have faith that the bats will start to pick up and help steer the course of his record back onto the straight and narrow.

The longest losing streak so far in 2013 belongs to the team that spent the most money in the off-season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have wracked up 7 losses in a row, and have a chance to extend that number tonight.  Miami is a good opportunity for a win, but I believe in you LA.  They have not yet won a game this month.  They also have a 6 game losing streak.

All but two major league teams have lost at least three in a row, so the Royals are in good company.  Only the New York Yankees, who everyone was writing off before the season, and the Texas Rangers have not lost 3 in a row yet.  Maybe the Royals can hand the Yanks three in a row over the weekend since they are due.  There are six teams tied with the Royals with a longest streak of 3 (Baltimore, Boston, Colorado, Seattle, and St. Louis), so the Royals have managed to out perform 22 of the 30 teams so far in avoiding losing streaks.  Of the 3 in a row max club, the Royals, Orioles, and Cardinals have only one streak of three, while the Red Sox, Rockies, and Mariners have 2 streaks each.

The leaders for most streaks of 3 losses or more are, unsurprisingly, Miami with 6 such streaks and Houston with 5.

This may seem frivolous, but as I am sure most of you are aware, the Royals kind of have a habit of sustained losing streaks.  Avoiding them feels really good.  Last year the Royals had the brutal 12 game April losing streak and 10 streaks of 3 or more losses in total.  That is one and a third losing streaks per month.  We are over a month in with only one such streak so far, and it is of the shortest variety due to last night’s victory.

I think this is just as important for the fans as well. We all have our rituals that make us feel as if we somehow hold sway over the outcome of a game. There’s the effervescent rally cap, a classic maneuver a fan makes when his team is struggling late in the game.

Down here in Bolivar, there are two bros that watch/follow Royals games with me and we all have our own rituals for coaxing victory out of they guys. We all went on a stadium tour a few months ago and at the end, we got some Royals swag to take with us. The hats we got were a little bit crummy. They weren’t even snap-backs. They were like those lame belt-loop ones that hardly anyone our age wears.

Anyways, after mocking these hats incessantly, my buddy Trev has started rocking his during the game because every time he wears it, we start scoring runs. It’s a little eerie, really.

My other buddy Jake has a bat signed by Amos Otis that he likes to hold during the games. It makes the players play better. For reals.

I, myself have this awesome Royals light that I turn on after each Royals win. Much like, Paul Revere….or something.

What do you guys do?

I want some weird traditions, man.

The run environment of baseball has been a topic of conversation for several years.  Over time the number of runs per game has been dropping, and many people have speculated that this is due to things like increased PED testing or increased quality of pitching.  Whatever the reason(s), the last three years have seen this trend stagnate.

As you can see, the runs scored in 2010, 11, and 12 were basically identical per game in the American League.  So far this year the runs have been slightly less per game.  This is not surprising since run production tends to be suppressed due to things like cold weather early in the season.  The overall run production this year is down 3.9% per game from last year, so the Royals run production being down 4.1% from last year is right in line with the league drop.  This is not comforting in that it says the offense has not progressed, but I wanted to start by at least showing that it has not regressed before pressing on.

Another thing to pay attention to is who the Royals have faced.  Their overall strength of schedule is 12^th according to ESPN (last year they ended up at 17^th), so their schedule has been a little tougher than average.  Not only that, but over half their games have come against some pretty tough starting pitching (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Clay Buchholz, and Ryan Dempster).  Don’t be surprised if the Detroit series does not help the offense bring its numbers up as they will add Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Anibal Sanchez to the tally.  Tough competition and low scoring games sounds like playoff baseball, and so far the Royals are above .500 in that situation.  This to me is a good sign.

Now to the actual player performance and composition.  Due to Ned’s love of changing the line-up and two trips to National League parks it is hard to say what the typical starting 9 in order are, but roughly it is this:

Alex Gordon

Alcides Escobar

Billy Butler

Mike Moustakas

Lorenzo Cain

Eric Hosmer

Salvador Perez

Jeff Francoeur

Chris Getz

Only one of these players does not belong on any major league team as a starter, and my assumption is that Francoeur will get less playing time as the season goes on and more will go to Jarrod Dyson (or David Lough who is raking in Omaha).  Less Frenchy over time will help this offense.  Also, only one player is at a level that is unsustainably good, Lorenzo Cain, but I don’t expect him to fall off of a cliff, just come back to Earth.  That leaves two groups, those doing as expected and those under-performing.

The expected group includes Gordon, Escobar, and Getz.  Gordon might not continue quite at the level he is at, but he has produced at a similar clip for a whole season before.  His OPS+ is 141 and in 2011 his season OPS+ was 140, so he is at or only a tiny bit above what he should be.  Alcides is continuing what he did last year only with slightly more power.  If he develops a little above last year no one should be shocked as that is fairly common of 26 year old players.  Chris Getz is a mediocre hitter, and will probably continue to be a mediocre hitter.  His average will likely come up and his slug will likely come down with no discernible change in team performance due to him.  That is fine since he bats ninth.

Now the under-performers.  Billy Butler will be fine, and as he rises back to his level the offense will improve.  I would move Lorenzo

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals players Eric Hosmer (left) and Mike Moustakas (right) during batting practice before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Cain behind him to try and keep pitchers from walking him so much, but either way this is not a concern.  That leaves the young guys.  Salvador Perez is the only one nobody has been vocally down on.  Sal is hitting .258/.269/.348, so I’m not sure why he has been ignored by those concerned, but whatever.  He is a stud defensively and I guess his last two partial seasons are enough that everyone is giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Hosmer and Moose on the other hand are struggling mightily and every Royals fan knows it.  There is more concern here due to their performances last year, Hosmer the entire 2012 campaign and Moustakas’ second half.

Eric Hosmer is doing poorly, but there are signs that he is going to get right because he is still getting on base.  The power is the major concern here.  Way too many ground balls and only one extra base hit, and only a double at that, are keeping his numbers from being okay.  I am still optimistic that he will have a decent season, especially since one good game, say a double and home run in the same day, would make everything look a lot better very quickly.

Mike Moustakas is another story.  His line, .158/.226/.193, is atrocious.  There is no sugar coating the results when you aren’t hitting, or getting base, or showing any power.  His past and age make me think that it is just a slump at a bad time, but that doesn’t mean I am not concerned about the short term.  Worst case scenario is that he needs a remedial session in AAA to get back on track if in a couple of weeks he is still looking this bad at the plate.  Gordon and Butler, among others, have had to do this sort of thing so don’t freak out if Moose gets sent down it does not mean he is never going to be any good.  There is no way that the final line for all third basemen ends up looking that bad by the end of the year, and up is really the only possible direction.

What I take from the players themselves is that there are a lot more players or positions to expect improvement from as the year goes on than there are expected regressions.  In other words, despite the struggles of a significant portion of the offense, this team has pretty much replicated last year’s offensive output.  This offense should therefore be better than last year’s once all 162 have been played.  We already know how much better the starting pitching has been, and should be expecting them to come backward a little bit due to a pretty fantastic start.  Hopefully as the starting pitching starts to find their level, which still should be pretty good, this offense can do the same and we can continue to watch good baseball.  Then come June we can start talking about trades and such to bolster any continuing weaknesses.

Team batting has gone somewhat as expected in my opinion.  They are right in the middle of the pack in runs and the main concern is the lack of home runs and walks.  The usual pattern of recent years where they rank very well in average and significantly worse in OBP is still there, once again due to really low walk rates, but this year OBP is slightly higher than normal due mostly to avoiding strike outs.

Apr 14, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) slides into third base with a lead off triple against the Toronto Blue Jays during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There is a very good sign that should not be ignored here.  Only two players have been good enough that I don’t think their rates are sustainable, Alex Gordon and Chris Getz.  If some of the struggling bats can start hitting a bit, mostly Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas but almost everyone else can do more too, then these ranks might be a little low come seasons end.  Both runs rank and WAR rank show a nice average offense, so growth would be welcome.  On to pitching:

That is beautiful, and not something we have seen as Royals fans in a long time.  Very high K rates and low walk rates are a very good way to be successful as a pitching staff.  The middle of the road home run rate has kept this from being a stellar beginning.  ERA is nearing top-5 status and the FIP and XFIP numbers back up the ERA so far.  My preseason belief once they set the rotation was that this was a slightly above average starting rotation and a fantastic bullpen.  This is a sustainable start from a rankings perspective.  I doubt Ervin Santana can keep being as good as he has been, but I also believe Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza can be quite a bit better.

The combined WAR total of pitching and hitting ranks 12^th in the majors, and that puts them right on the edge of contention with 10 teams making the playoffs.  Most of this does not look like unsustainable luck like 2003 was, so I am really starting to get excited about a long summer of meaningful baseball games.  It’s still far from a done deal that this team will contend, but the early returns are not hurting the preseason optimism.

The Royals chose Luis Mendoza over Bruce Chen.

A revelation. A breath of fresh and reasonable air. In my post on moving a certain terrible pitcher to the bullpen, I noted that the fifth starter decision might be a signal that Royals decision makers are changing their approach/perspective … are maturing really. So, it seems, they have … at least a little … maybe.

Mar 18, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (left) during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The evidence for this decision was clear; Mendoza pitched much better last season and this spring. He’s at the peak of his career; Chen is about a month away from Social Security. The fact that a few years ago Chen had a slightly above league average season means very little compared to the travesty of last season, and everyone (that is anyone with eyes and the capability to reason) saw it. Everyone saw that Mendoza is a better option for the fifth spot (I use hyperbole with the term ‘everyone’ for emphasis on just how many people thought Mendoza the better option than Chen).

But that’s never stopped the Royals before. Everyone saw the awfulness of the Yuniesky Betancourt signing, and that didn’t stop the Royals from signing him and then compounding the situation by giving him a starting job at second base. Everyone saw that paying Jose Guillen money to play baseball would be a bad idea. Sign away. Over the course of many, many years, the Royals have turned their backs on reason, and there was evidence suggesting that this year, the year they’re supposed to be going for it, might be the same (tendering Luke Hochevar a contract!!!!).

Choosing Mendoza as the fifth starter flies in the face of their terrible decision making and seems to support the very simple notion that they are trying to play the best players most often (it seems so simple, right!?). It also seems to indicate that they can accurately evaluate who the better of two players is, a flimsy claim for this team from time to time. It’s not that my evaluation ability is better than those calling shots for the Royals. I mean, it is, but that’s not the point. The point is the Royals have typically been in the extreme minority in their opinions on players and still gone with grit over game performance, guts over the ability to hit a baseball.

The good spring decisions they’re making are, of course, only one step. Other important decisions lie on the horizon that will indicate if those calling the shots at Kauffman really have a new approach capable of winning. They’ve already settled on J.C. Gutierrez as the final man for the bullpen, which is, I think, not a terrible decision just a calculated one. Many on Twitter are unhappy that Donnie Joseph didn’t get the job, and while I might have chosen him, I certainly see the logic in a small-market, relatively low-budget team maintaining some priority on inventory. The backup catcher spot went to George Kottaras, another reasonable decision. But once the season gets rolling and a player starts to struggle (perhaps a certain right fielder), this ‘new approach’ will be tested, as it will near the All-Star break when Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino come back and when it will be decision time on whether or not to move Ervin Santana.

Approaches to running a baseball team are not based on one or two decisions, they are the lens through which an organization sees the game, the perspective of their gaze. The Cardinals and Rays have winning perspectives. They don’t just make a good decision every now and then; they make consistently good decisions. In the past, when Ned Yost saw Hochevar allow 7 runs in an inning, based on his post-game comments and talk surrounding Hochevar, it seemed like he literally saw something different than I did. That’s because his perspective seemed much different than a sane person’s. It’s hard to change perspective, and I hope that we can begin to mark this time as a time the Royals decision makers found a way to change theirs. It’s looking like that might be the case.

The rankings for the Royals are mostly fair, but before I discuss where I think they are off I want to talk about the win projection.  In the end this system has a projection of 80 wins for the Royals.  This is exactly what I predicted in the Kings of Kauffman prediction article earlier this week.  You would think having projections systems along with some good writers over at Fangraphs agree with me would lead to a greater confidence in my original prediction, but that is not the case.

There are a couple of things that I disagree with a little, but can’t argue too much with, in that I think projections are a little low on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.  These don’t change my mind though, since I think the optimism on Salvador Perez is probably a little too high.  Where this really affected my thinking was in two spots, right field and starting pitching.  The right field WAR is calculated with Jeff Francoeur receiving 630 plate appearances at a total WAR of 0.4, and that is almost surely not going to happen.  If Francoeur is bad then the platooning being discussed will likely become a reality quickly in some form, either acquisition, David Lough coming up, or Jarrod Dyson playing more in center with Lorenzo Cain moving over to play right.  The only other option is that Frenchy does get a full season of PAs, and that will likely only happen if he is producing at a better clip than 0.4 WAR per season.  It would surprise me a lot of the Royals don’t get better production out of right than is being predicted by Fangraphs, so that should add a win.  Possibly more, but I’ll call it one.

The second part, starting pitching, will likely be an even bigger deal.  Here are their projections:

They have James Shieldsat 4.4 WAR, which is fair and possibly even a little too high sinc

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) and team mates celebrate with first baseman Eric Hosmer (35) after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

e 4.5 is his career high even if his ERA and FIP could end up better than what is shown.  I would be shocked if Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis all end up in the four and half ERA/FIP range, and that is the first part of my disagreement.  Obviously, since they did this things have changed too.  Luis Mendoza is now the number five starter, and will not be getting 40IP.  He will be an upgrade over Bruce Chen, which is why everyone has been hoping for Mendoza to get the spot and the Royals evidently agree as well.  My guess is that this staff will end up with another 2+ wins worth of value at the least.  Especially when I look at rotations like the Rockies getting a better projection.  Jeff Francis got projected at 2 WAR, and I would rather have anyone in the Royals staff, and Jon Garland got 1.4 WAR in projection in 90 IPs which is just plain crazy.  The only way that rotation is better is if guys like Drew Pomeranz bump Garland out of the rotation.

Just adding Mendoza and making it clear that the Francoeur is not going to be given much leash has made this Royals team better than I, and Fangraphs, originally thought a couple of weeks ago.  That is probably another 3 or 4 wins, which is starting to push the Royals toward an expectation of contention.  If they can move into the mid-80s for wins, then I think we are in for a fun September.  Sure, Detroit was projected as the best team in this same article at 94 wins, but Detroit has failed to live up to their hype a couple of times in the past few years.  Monday cannot get here fast enough.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I happened to watch the Spring Training game against the Chicago White Sox earlier today, and found myself taking a lot of positives from it. I thought I’d share some thoughts about the game that seem significant to me:

I’m happy with where Jeremy Guthrie is. I was worried for a while. He looked pretty bad in his first few outings of the spring. He couldn’t locate. His fastball didn’t seem to have much zip or movement. Essentially, he looked like his Colorado self (in terms of results anyway).

Today, though, he looked like the Guthrie that made the Royals eager to give him $25 million in the offseason. He made one mistake in the fifth and gave up a homer, but other than that, he was very clean. The run he gave up in the first inning was a fluke—contingent on a soft bloop to left field on a good pitch and a hit that would have been fielded but instead ricocheted off third base. His secondary pitches looked deadly today, and his fastball had some life. Most importantly, he located.

Alcides Escobar looks ready to go. Like Guthrie, Escobar looked a little lost to start the spring. He was fighting some back spasms for a few days and looked a little pull happy early in the spring. Consequently, it looked like he might fulfill the prophecy of regression many have set for him or perhaps dip even further than most are predicting.

But against the White Sox, Escobar stayed focused up the middle and to right field. He had a nice line-drive base hit up the middle and lined out to second once. That’s what he needs to do, drive the ball to right and right center. Pull inside fastball when necessary. I’m still waiting for him to lay a few down successfully. That was a big part of his game last year—bunting for base hits—and I haven’t seen him do it much (though I haven’t been able to watch most of the games). If he can once again enact the identity of a number two hitter, he will be a very good number two hitter. Makes sense, right?

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

This might kill me to write, but Jeff Francoeur isn’t looking terrible lately. I watched the game against Anaheim the other day and thought Hmmm, Francoeur’s swing looks shorter than usual. In that game he absolutely CRUSHED a ball over the batter’s eye in center field. Against the White Sox today, he had two doubles, both hit very sharply with good, tight swings (that is, good for Francoeur; he’ll never be Albert Pujols). I’ve been a staunch opponent of starting Francoeur in right field, and I’m of the belief that whatever is working for him now is probably fleeting. But if he has to be the starting right fielder for the Royals, I’d rather he be playing well than playing poorly.

Interestingly, this swing seems to allow Francoeur not only to hit the ball more but to foul pitches away as well. He’s always going to swing at whatever is thrown, but if he can foul off the pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at instead of missing them, he’ll give himself more chances to put balls in play.

Alex Gordon is flat out destroying the ball. It is Spring Training, and the White Sox used minor league pitching against the Royals, but Gordon is having terrific at-bats. He’s piling up extra-base hits (including home runs) and doesn’t seem fooled by what any pitcher is doing (major league or otherwise). If he carries this over into the season, the Royals will have a serious weapon at the top of their lineup, and Gordon will force himself into the All-Star game where he should have been in the last two seasons (2011 for sure).

Hawk Harrelson is a terrible play-by-play guy (the game was on MLB.tv via the White Sox Broadcast).

I realize that these are all positive (except for the last one). Maybe that’s because the game went pretty well; maybe it’s because I’m getting more and more optimistic as the season approaches. I don’t know. Right now, the Royals look ready to put their best foot forward to start the regular season.  Let’s hope nothing changes that over the course of the next week.

If you follow the Royals’ minor league system at all, there is one theme.  Wilmington is a tough place to hit.  Being a position player in the system and getting a promotion to high A ball is the equivalent of the Royals Brass telling you that they would like to see how you handle failure.  It is a pitchers park of nearly epic proportions.  Cuthbert’s 2012 line of .240/.296/.322 is definitely scary, and maybe completely meaningless as well.  I went back and looked for Royals in Wilmington going back to 1994 to see who hit well there.  Plenty of players, including Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, and even Ken Harvey had nice seasons for the Blue Rocks, but there is a consistent similarity among them all, and that is that they were all in their early 20s.  Only one player under age 20 had a significant amount of playing time in Wilmington and had good hitting numbers.  Wil Myershad a nice half season in is age 19 season.

Cheslor Cuthbert via Jen Nevius

The best parallel for Cheslor is Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was actually a year older at each stop, but had a similar path of decent rookie ball year and a pretty good line between low A and A ball.  Then he arrived in Wilmington and struggled to a line of .229/.311/.363 as a 20 year old.  The following year he repeated his time at high A, and did much better, getting a promotion to AA where his numbers exploded.  That is the hope for someone like Cuthbert in 2013.  Getting a chance to age and repeat could lead to similar growth as a player.  Not only that, but the fact that he is following a similar path at a younger age means that the ceiling for him may be very high.

Digging into last season there were some good signs.  Away from his home park, Cuthbert’s average was similar, but his OBP was 20 points higher and his slugging was 60 points higher.  Also, after three really awful months, his OBP in the last two months (a little over 100 PAs) of the season were .343 and .364 with the usual small sample size caveats.  Everyone is loving up Adalberto Mondesi this spring, and for good reason, but don’t forget about Cheslor Cuthbert.  It would not at all be surprising to me if next year he was in AA and/or AAA and creating questions about how to handle the log jam at third base.

December 12, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore speaks during the press conference at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

About a week ago, I wrote a post vilifying the Royals for their flippant use of the term “competition”. I chastised them for using a rhetoric of lies while giving players like Luke Hochevar the chance to continually disappoint. I even had a very witty Ron Mexico joke in there.

The very next day, they pulled Hochevar from the rotation, and my post was DOA.

Go ahead and search the major Royals blogs (especially Kings of Kauffman, which his in my opinion the bestest blog ever!). You’ll find plenty of writing about Hochevar’s move to the bullpen so I’m not going to go there. I’ll just state that moving a guy who can’t pitch with runners on base into a position in which one primary function is to pitch well with guys on base is a little confusing. But here’s hoping he turns into Mariano Rivera.

Instead, I’m thinking about the shift in approach that this move signals … if it does in fact signal one … which I don’t think it does. Those same writings on Hochevar mention this potential shift, but I’m not so optimistic that a shift has necessarily occurred. In fact, I’m not sure that Hochevar being moved could even be evidence of a shift in approach.

Moving Hochevar is not an un-Royals move. It’s actually a very Royals move once viewed as a whole. Because you can’t look at this move in the moment; it must be looked at in its entirety. What have the Royals really done here? They drafted a guy number one overall, moved him quickly threw the minor leagues, pushed him to be their number one starter, and then stuck by him through one of the worst starting pitching careers in history. They stuck with him much, much longer than anyone in their right mind would have, and finally, when they were the last ones left to realize what he was, they made a move to salvage that product.

In what way is that un-Royals like? On different scales (over different periods of time) that’s the story with Jason Kendall and Mike Jacobs and Jose Lima and so many others that if we crowd sourced might fill multiple rosters. Go ahead, name the one’s I’ve left out for the sake of brevity in the comments section.

No, Hochevar is not the measure of a shift in approach or attitude or perspective. The Hochevar move is a team making a big mistake, realizing it way, way, way too late, and trying to salvage. The real test of whether or not a shift in approach has occurred might be in the two other fifth starter candidates: Luis Mendoza and Bruce Chen. Anyone with eyes knows that Mendoza is the better pitcher and deserves that job. Anyone who knows baseball a little, knows that Chen’s best years (the two roughly average years he had with Kansas City) are behind him. Choosing Mendoza over Chen might signal that the Royals have opened up more to bailing on their mistakes when they’re apparent, a small shift in attitude but an important one. It might signify that they no longer get oddly protective of certain players who can’t perform, as if those players are all David Glass’s favorite nephews.

Really, it will take a body of decisions to evaluate whether or not the Royals decision makers have evolved their thinking to fit a team that is seemingly in place to win now. Do they stick with Jeff Francoeur if he struggles mightily in the first month? Do they send Donnie Joseph to AAA even if he is the best option they have as the last member of their bullpen and their best LOOGY option? These are difficult decisions (ok, the first one isn’t) the answer to which changes depending on where a team is at in its progress. If a team is rebuilding, options and service time and protecting large numbers of players is more important. If a might contend, those things should matter less (that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t matter at all; it just means they should matter less).

The next month and a half will give us a clearer indication if the those pulling the strings at Kauffman Stadium have actually wised up or if it’s just business as its often shitty usual.

Let’s look at the main reasons Escobar is being tabbed for regression first.  His walk rate did not change last year, but his strike out rate went from 12.2% in 2011 up to 15.4%.  That is not generally what you would like to see.  Additionally, he posted a BABIP of .344 after being below .300 in his first two full seasons.  This is actually in line with his minor league BABIP results, but maintaining that high of a number at the major league level takes a lot of skill.  Finally, one of the main factors that contributed to this high BABIP and the increase in power, mostly due to more doubles, is his line drive rate.  Alcides’ LD% increased from 18.1 up to 23 in 2012, and that’s a good thing.  The problem is that line drive rate has a very low correlation year to year.  In fact, of all the hitting metrics tested, it has the lowest correlation at 0.293, which means we can’t count on it being sustained.  The last piece here is the increased strike out rate that came from lower contact rates, and just keep in mind that his swing rates and pitches per plate appearance, so he wasn’t more selective.

That is a lot of evidence that suggests Alcides Escobar’s 2012 was partially luck driven, but there are a couple of things he did a lot better.  One thing that makes me think he is getting better is that last year he maintained his ground ball rate while increasing his line drive rate.  That means that he avoided fly balls posting his best FB% ever at 23.7%, and that is highly correlated year to year.  If he

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) hits a double in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

hits fewer line drives this year it may mean his number of ground balls may increase rather than them turning into fly balls.  This is imperative for a hitter with so little home run power because almost all of his fly balls will end up being outs.  The second thing in Escobar’s season that stands out to me is his change in pitch values.  Last year he crushed fast balls compared to prior seasons, and he has been getting better at this over time.

In case you are unfamiliar with these, wFB is runs above on fastballs, while the wFT is two seem fastballs, wFC is cutters, and wFA is four seam and unclassified fastballs.  What these show is that Alcides was an above average hitter on fastballs last year for the first time in a full season, and that he improved from 2010 to 2011 as well.  Just for reference sake, Billy Butler’s wFB last year was 27, and Billy saw a fastball about 53.5% of the time last year versus Escobar’s 58.6%.  That means pitchers could start throwing fewer fastballs to Alcides, but even extreme fastball hitters still see a fastball 45% of the time.  He does not fit this category as these tend to be dead pull hitters with lots of power, think Ryan Howard.

At his age, Alcides Escobar’s improvement last year could be mostly due to development as a player through hitting the fastball well and avoiding fly balls.  If that development continues in his 26 year-old season this summer it could offset the regression from a little luck last year, and keep in mind that his BABIP and such don’t point to a crazy amount of luck either.  There is no reason that he cannot repeat, or even better, what he produced at the plate last summer

First, there are 4 players in the Detroit line-up that could end up as liabilities:

Andy Dirks just turned 27 and has only two partial years in the majors.  Last year he looked good in the 344 plate appearances he received.  Two things jump out at me though.  A BABIP of .365 is probably not sustainable, but more importantly how he has been used.  Of those plate appearances 261 came against righties and 83 against lefties.  They plan to platoon him due to his splits, but the other side of the platoon is uncertain.   Also, his power is limited with a career high of 15 homers between AA and AAA in 2010 and he rates out negatively defensively as well.

Torii Hunter had an incredibly lucky year at the plate last year with a BABIP of .389, and he is now 37 years old.  His aging has been showing slowly with power ticking down over time.  His average is likely to drop back to the .260s or 70s and 15 HRs is likely the max.  His walk rates and K rates got significantly worse last year.  He was always a defensive stud, but his legs aren’t what they used to be although he rated out very well last year by UZR for the first time in a number of years.

Victor Martinez is now 34 and just sat out a whole year.  His power looked diminished two years ago even though he put up a stellar batting average.  Projections see him taking a big step back overall this year.  He will probably still be useful as a hitter, but not a significant piece you want in the middle of your line-up.

Jhonny Peralta hit .239/.305/.384 last year.  He used to hit for power, but those years seem behind him.  His average will probably come back a little, but the rest of what he offers is pretty mediocre.

Based on these the Royals are obviously better than Detroit at Left Field, DH, and Short Stop.  Jeff Francoeur is still worse than a diminished Torii Hunter.  It would not surprise me if Second Base was similar for both teams as Omar Infante is nothing special, and Salvador Perez should be significantly better than Alex Avilatoo.  Those six positions will need to be decidedly in the favor of the Royals for run production between the two teams to be similar because the other three positions are solidly in Detroit’s favor.

February 22, 2013; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat against the Atlanta Braves during spring training at Disney Wide World of Sports complex, Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In the last nine seasons Miguel Cabrera has been very, very good.  Good enough that he is heading toward certain Hall of Fame territory and that Triple Crown is quite a feat.  Prince Fielder is pretty good too in case no one had noticed.  Austin Jackson is not in that rarefied air, but he is better than Lorenzo Cain unless Cain takes a large step forward.  Still, a big year out of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, which is not out of the question, could make the offensive difference between the Royals and Tigers negligible.  Just to clarify though, this means the Royals would need to close up a 50 run gap from last year, which means the Royals need to take a big step forward (as they should) and the Tigers take a small step back.

On to the second problem for the Tigers, defense:

Over the years I have gone from loving the new defensive metrics, to looking at them askance, to checking multiple sources hoping to find a consensus.  The Tigers corner infielders are Miggy and Prince, and their defense last year, and every year, has been bad.  For some reason though, UZR has like Jhonny Peralta the last two years at short after making him look terrible for most of his career.  At the same time UZR hates Alcides Escobar in 2012.  I have no idea how to process Jhonny Peralta being two WAR better than Escobar based on defense.  Baseball Reference had them closer to the same last year, but I am starting to believe Jeff Zimmerman’s  theory on shifting helping out Moose and hurting Alcides in the advanced stats.  Everything I see tells me Omar Infante is the only decent defender in the infield for Detroit.  In the outfield, Dirks had negatives last year, for what it’s worth, and Hunter is not what he used to be due to age, so center is the only place with a plus defender.  Avila seems to be a decent catcher, but catcher fielding is even harder to quantify than the others, so I won’t try and give a sweeping pronouncement.  Here I think the Royals have a significant advantage in LF, 3B, SS, 1B, and Catcher.

The third problem for the Tigers is the bullpen:

Let’s get the good out of the way first.  Joaquin Benoit and Brayan Vilarreal are probably pretty good.  I only say probably because Vilarreal only has 54 2/3 innings of quality relief to his name in the bigs.  Even last year, when Vilarreal established himself, his xFIP was 3.96, so he may not actually be good.  Benoit, on the other hand, has been good for the last three years and is their best relief pitcher.  After those two you have a lot of questions.  Bruce Rondon is supposed to be the closer, but he has major control problems and is probably not going to be taking care of the 9^th inning this year if his spring continues as at began.  Phil Coke and Darin Downs are not impressive in any way along with Octavio Dotel who is 49 and has been consistently middle of the road.  Maybe Al Alburquerque is a stud, but he still hasn’t done it over a whole season.  This is a bullpen that would be lucky to have three really solid guys.  The Royals have Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, and Kelvin Herrera at the back end, and this is a huge advantage.

Now for Detroit’s huge advantage:

The rotation for the Tigers is much, much better than the Royals.  In fact, it is better at each of the five rotation spots.  Justin Verlander is better than pretty much everyone, Royal or not, and James Shields is not in that stratosphere.  Then Detroit has three somewhat indistinguishable guys in Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Anibal Sanchez.  Scherzer is probably the riskiest since he has been inconsistent.  Fister has had solid seasons the last two years.  He is likely to be good again, but without the upside of Scherzer.  Anibal Sanchez has put up sub-4 ERAs in the past three seasons, four seasons if you include a partial season in 2009.  Sanchez puts people on base at too high of a rate to be dominant, but he has been consistently good.  I think the Royals could match these three with Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis, but that will take some luck and on an expectation basis the Tigers are well ahead.  If I were ranking these six I would probably go Fister, Sanchez, Guthrie, Scherzer, Santana, and Davis.  The first three are the most solid, and the other three have the highest upside.  Finally, the fifth spot.  The Royals are bound and determined to make Luke Hochevar fifth, while Detroit has Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello.  I will be honest. I hate Porcello, and always have.  In my opinion he is only marginally better than Hochevar, so I hope that’s who gets the job.  He cannot strike anyone out, and is not a great control pitcher either.  Drew Smyly on the other hand is a giant ball of potential.  He blew through the minors and struck out everyone on the way.  There are still some control issues, but nearly a K per inning can make up for some walks.  He is a question mark due to the limited time at the major league level, but he is likely better than anything the Royals can put in the 5^thspot.

September 26, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Luis Mendoza (39) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It is unlikely that the Kansas City rotation will find a way to outperform Detroit’s.  The main hope will be trying to match their starters and hope to take advantage of the other weaknesses.  For that to happen, Ervin Santana will need to be like his last couple of months last year rather than the atrocious start.  Hopefully being in Kauffman will help him keep the home runs down a bit.  On the bright side it is unlikely he will have an 18.9% HR/FB rate again…unless he is done as a major league pitcher.  KC will also need Davis to smoothly transfer back to the rotation and post an ERA near or below four.  Those are both possible, and coupled with Shields being what he has been and Guthrie doing the same, minus the Coors Field Experience, that would be a decent front four.  The fifth spot being Luis Mendoza would make me feel like this is an average rotation with some upside.  Instead we will likely see Hochevar, and that makes this a slightly below average rotation, so any of the other pieces breaking down could lead to a lot of problems, at least until Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino get back.  Those two make me very optimistic about next year’s rotation.

Overall the Tigers are the favorite due to their top end talent, which is second to none.  There are enough questions on this Detroit team though, that I don’t think they will go out and win 100 games and run away with the division  That means the Royals have a shot, but they will need to have a few things go their way with the rotation, and have the hitting disappointments of last year turn into positives.

In 2011 Salvador emerged late in the year, and began his career by picking a couple of guys off while oozing moxie in his first game.  Since then he has continued to impress.  Only an injury last year and his rather large body give reason for concern.  What should we expect out of him this year, and in the long-term?  We know a few things.  He is really slow, and base running is never going to be a strength.  He is a catcher, so that is not unusual.  We also know that he hates people that can run the bases.  Last year he had 18 caught stealing on 43 attempts (41.9% caught), and 53 total assists in half a season.  He has a huge arm, and he is not afraid to use it.  Defensively he is not a concern, except whether or not a tall guy like him can stick at catcher.  His bat has also been really good, so let’s talk about that some too.

If you pull stats on catchers who have had big starts to their career under the age of 22 like Sal, then you get a nice feeling about his long-term potential.  So, for instance, I went to Fangraphs for a ranking of catchers in their 21 and 22 year-old seasons in the expansion era by wRC+.  Look at the list of catchers that had above average production with the bat:

These, along with a few other names, are the ones that continue to show up time and again if you look for Salvador Perez comps.  HOFers like Johnny Bench and Gary Carter (and Ivan Rodriguez assuming steroid era issues don’t keep him out), near HOFers like Joe Torre, the best of today in Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, and a whole lot of really productive players to go along with them.  If you look at him over this same time period for ages 21 and 22 he is 25^th in plate appearances among catchers, but 15^th in HRs, 2^nd in Avg., 5^th in SLG., and 8^th in wOBA.  I tried setting PAs between 300 and 600 to get rid of those who already had more than a full season under their belt by this point of their career, but Salvador dominates that group with the best average, second best slug, and second best wOBA.  It is hard not to get excited about this guy being on the Royals for the next seven years (thank you ridiculously team friendly contract).

Right now what we are all focused on is 2013, so though it is hard not to drool over the potential of a catcher who can hit for average and power and play plus defense, what about this year?  First I looked at projections.

Fangraphs has these posted, and ZIPS is somewhere between Steamer and Bill James.  That means three out of four projection systems are all expecting some average regression, but a decently similar OBP, and a little less slug.  Also, you will note similar homer totals to last year despite getting a full season.  Part of that is due to a 13% HR/FB rate last year that is probably a little high, but I was a little surprised to see no one projecting him in the 20 range for home runs in the coming season.  Projections are by nature conservative though, so I tend to like what I see.  That is an above average hitter and defender at a premium defensive position.  It puts him in the 3 to 5 WAR range for this year (which will pretty much pay for his entire contract of the next seven years if it happens).  Even if Perez has to move off of catcher due to his size/knees (Hosmer insurance?), his bat might end up being big enough to play anywhere if the power continues to develop.

September 05, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) connects for a double in the sixth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Going beyond projections I went and looked at catchers from the previous lists I generated, and how they did in their age 23 season using Baseball-Reference.  Those in the same range of plate appearances seemed to take steps back in that year (ex. BJ Surhoff and Michael Barrett), but those players didn’t flash the power Perez did prior to that year.  The one in the group that stood out as taking a step forward was Jason Kendall who went .294/.391/.434, but once again may not be a good power comparison.  The others had more time in the majors prior to their 23 year season.  I tried to stick to those flashing power prior to age 23, but not crazy like Johnny Bench who is a bad comp for humans in general.  Guys like Benito Santiago, McCann, and Bill Freehan struggled at 23 while Pudge and Ted Simmons put up lines similar to the projections for Salvador.  None of these seem to be very conclusive, but they make me wary that the 3+ WAR projections might be closer to the top end (at least the hitting component) for this season rather than a middle point.

It is also possible that trying to look at comparisons of 21 and 22 year-old catchers who have been really good is a small sample size issue, especially when you need 4+ decades of data to get enough players to do much of anything.  All in all it is hard for me to see a scenario where Salvador does not provide at least a league average bat and high caliber defense for 2013 unless there is another injury.  If his average drops 20 points and his power is more doubles than home runs we should all still be very excited about the years to come. The more I look at it I am expecting even more than that in the future, while feeling that we are little optimistic about the present.  This year I am going to try and keep my expectations for him a little in check and hope mostly for a full, injury free season.

My number eight top Wilmington Blue Rocks moment is…

The 1998 All-Star Game

Current big leaguer and former Frederick Key Jerry Hairston Jr at the 1998 Carolina League All-Star Game.

Normally, the All-Star Game is played between the Carolina League and the California League. However in 1998, the Blue Rocks hosted the Carolina League ASG, pitting the Northern Division against the Southern Division (I think something logistical changed the format). The great part about the game was that fans had seen all of the players selected play at Frawley Stadium at least once prior to the event.

Prior to the game, the All-Stars were at the now-defunct Kahunaville (which was across the street from the stadium). It was a unique setting (think a smaller version of Dave and Buster’s), as players were scattered throughout the “game area” and pool tables for an autograph session. There were not a ton of people there (mainly because it was a Tuesday afternoon), which meant there was plenty of time to get every players’ autograph, take pictures, and even have conversations.

After that, the players were herded back to the ballpark for batting practice, which was followed by the homerun derby. The Carolina League had a few homerun hitters that season that mainly played in the Southern Division, like Joe Crede and Mike Hessman, but hitting long balls out of Frawley Stadium proved tough.

Prior to the game, Robin Roberts became the first inductee into the Blue Rocks Wall of Fame (he played back in 1948 with the original club). He also became the first Blue Rock to have his number retired (#36).

The North beat the South, 5-2, as Blue Rocks second baseman Emiliano Escandon delivered an 8th inning bases clearing double to break the 2-2 tie.

But there’s not much I can do about that. I’ve tried to be as objective as I can, giving credence to data, patterns, comps, and general understanding. I tried to limit the influence of things I feel matter less—how I wantthe team to do and certain statistical elements. With that in mind, here is my prediction for the Royals’ 2013 season: 90-72.

June 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4), center fielder Mitch Maier (12) congratulate center fielder Jarrod Dyson (1) after sliding in safely for the winning run in the ninth inning of the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I know; I know. It’s much more optimistic than most people’s, but someone has to be the outlier, the nut job. I have no problem being that guy. Let me tell you why it’s so high.

For starters, read my last post. The basis of my very generous prediction is my belief that the Royals are set for a breakout similar to that of the Rays in 2008. The Rays greatly improved an atrocious pitching staff in 2008, which allowed them to make a tremendous jump in wins.* The Royals probably aren’t set for as large a jump in pitching performance—mostly because their bullpen wasn’t as bad in 2012 as the Rays bullpen in 2007. But the Royals have the potential to improve greatly both offensively and in pitching (the Rays improved only slightly offensively).

* I am currently working on a theory that improving starting pitching may disproportionately improve a teams win total.

What would it take for the Royals to orchestrate a Rays-like turnaround? I’m glad I rhetorically asked. Essentially, the Royals need flip their run differential from -70 to +100—keeping in mind of course that the number of runs they scored and surrendered last year will not effect the number they score and surrender this year. A +100 run differential puts them in the general neighborhood of 90 wins. (Note: run differential is the difference between how many runs the score and how many they give up.)

It all starts with starting pitching. If the Royals get their starting staff’s ERA down to roughly the American League median (4.30) and increase their innings by 100 to 990 and their bullpen simply stays the same, their runs allowed would drop from 746 to 635. An increase in starter innings to 990 is very reasonable, perhaps even conservative, as Ned Yost and James Shields have already stated that their expectation is 1000 innings from the starting rotation. For the sake of conservative estimate, this is also predicting no improvement at all from the bullpen, though it should improve with the starting staff going deeper into games. Last year, the bullpen was woefully overused forcing the Royals to rely on a large number of bullpen arms some of which were not their best. Which is to say, 635 is a conservative expectation for runs allowed; it could be lower.

Of course, the Royals only scored 676 runs last season so ONLY improving the starting pitching would put them at what most people are predicting, roughly 85-87 wins. The Tigers had a Pythagorean win-loss of 87-75 last season with a run differential of +56. But if the Royals improve offensively, they should make a significant jump in wins. In 2011, the Royals scored 730 runs with fantastic years from five of their top-nine players (in terms of playing time) and four pretty bad years from Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, and a combination of Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena. Given where players like Moustakas, Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Johnny Giavotella are in their development, I think it’s very possible that the Royals make it to around 730 runs. Maybe in another post I’ll do an analysis of this lineups potential to score runs, but for now, let’s just say I think they can make it to around 730. The caveat, of course, is health, but I think they’re more capable of dealing with a few injuries than in the past few seasons (though perhaps not certain injuries to key players).

A run differential of around +100 gives the Royals a chance to win around 90 games. Last season, Texas had a run differential of +101 and had a Pythagorean win-loss of 91-71 (actually record, 93-69). And all it really requires is that the starting pitching pitch average (which is honestly asking too little of the first four, especially James Shields), and the lineup progress as young lineups do.

Honestly, I think the low predictions for the Royals by most people are the result of viewing 2012 conservatively: The Royals ONLY won 72 games in 2012. I see 2012 and say Wow the Royals were able to win 72 games despite the never-ending stream of crap that came their way. Four Tommy John surgeries, including the two most effective starting pitchers. Cain–out for half the season. Perez–out half the season. Jeff Francoeur—the worst everyday player in baseball. Hosmer—a year no one expected. Jonathan Sanchez—12 of the most horrific starts I’ve ever seen. All of this stuff happened and more, and yet, they still managed to win 72 games—one more than in 2011. And their Pythagorean win-loss was 74-88 (in 2011 it was actually better at 78-84).

September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Now, I know bad stuff happens, but I just cannot image all of this bad stuff happening again. And I think if something bad does happen—if Francoeur has another abomination of a season, if Perez misses time—the Royals are more equipped to handle it. George Kottaras is better than Humberto Quintero and Pena. The Royals have two people in place who can play a serviceable right field and seem more willing to bench Francoeur if he’s not performing.

Yes, on the flip side, some of the players who had great seasons in 2012 may regress, but really, only three players had better than expected seasons in 2012: Escobar, Billy Butler (with increased power), and Jeremy Guthrie (with the Royals anyway). I don’t think anyone thinks Butler is going to have a bad season. He may not hit 29 homers again (I think he’ll hit at least as many), but he will produce. Escobar seems likely to regress a little, but he’s a young guy so it’s not unusual for him to be getting better. Don’t be surprised if he can stick in the .280-.290 range. Guthrie may regress, but I don’t think he’ll fall too far—certainly not to where he was in Colorado. I imagine he can regress and still be at least league average.

Essentially, my prediction for the Royals sees what most people see; I just think it will yield more wins than they do. Most people see Hosmer having a bounce-back season. Most see the starting staff getting better. Most see the Royals getting a better year out of right field. Most see Moustakas improving as well. So, why won’t they win 90? And you can’t say because they’re the Royals.

For more encouragement, look at the addition by subtraction. Sanchez will not make 12 starts this year. Yuniesky Betancourt will not make 228 plate appearances. I love Pena, but he and Quintero will not have a combined 370 plate appearances. Luke Hochevar will not be allowed to make 32 starts with a 5.73 ERA, and the Royals have pieces to replace him.

To me, this is a recipe for a big turnaround. So … I’m predicting a big turnaround. Sure, some things have to go right. The Royals need to stay healthy, especially Perez, Alex Gordon, and Shields. But that’s every team in every season. Maybe my prediction is overly optimistic, but I just can’t look at the data and see only average in this team. The talent is better than that. If they play as they can play, they have a chance.

I came to this conclusion the other day when, in a particularly strong bout of optimism, I thought maybe the Royals can find a way to do it this year. If they keep it close into September, maybe they can take this division with 90 wins after a late season run. *eye twinkle*

This led to an unfounded belief that maybe the Tigers aren’t as good as people think. So, I dug into the numbers, and was crushed by the reality that the Tigers are freaking incredible on paper. It’s kind of hard to look at.

October 02, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Tony Abreu (34) gets the out on Detroit Tigers second baseman Danny Worth (29) at second base and throws to first in the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Start with their pitching staff, third in the AL in ERA (3.75) last year, and that was with a suspect bullpen. They were second in starters’ ERA at 3.76, which is fantastic. Their top four starters had ERAs under 3.74; Justin Verlander led the group with a 2.64. The only starter in their top six in starts with an ERA over four was Rick Porcello, and I could see him losing his spot in the rotation to Drew Smyly. Every one of these pitchers other than Porcello had a K/9 rate of at least 7.64, and each of them had a BB/9 rate under three.

On the offensive side, the picture doesn’t get much prettier (that is if you’re hoping for the Royals to compete; if you’re hoping for the Tigers to win 95 games, things are looking great). The Tigers’ team slash line was .268/.335/.422. They were fourth in the AL in OPS at .757 behind New York, Texas, and Los Angeles. Of course, that was without their starting DH, Victor Martinez, who was out the whole year with a torn ACL. He’ll be back this year because clearly they need more help hitting bombs off Luke Hochevar.

The most terrifying aspects of this lineup are not Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. They’re incredible; they’re going to hit. Everyone knows it. It’s guys like Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks who really stand out. Jackson hit .300/.377/.479 last season. He was worth 5.5 WAR (according to fangraphs), which was more than Prince Fielder. Dirks, in only 344 PA, hit .322/.370/.487 and was worth 1.6 WAR, a number dragged down by his poor fielding.

To help with all this, noted Royal killer and ageless wonder Torii Hunter has joined the Tigers. YAY!

That’s not to say that the Tigers are without flaws. Jackson and Dirks’ numbers were inflated by very high BABIPs—but so are Alex Gordon’s. There’s no telling where Martinez will be after ACL surgery, a year away from baseball, and being another year older. He’s 34 years old. In fact, this team, while not old, has plenty of miles on it and plenty of padding around the waistline. I wonder sometimes how Cabrera and Fielder hold up as well as they do with all the weight they carry, and essentially, this is the Royals’ only hope: that the Tigers get hit by the injury bug.

Of course, there are other deficiencies in their game that might make an AL Central race more interesting. The Tigers’ added bulk makes them pretty useless running the bases. They’re a one-base-at-a-time kind of team. It also makes them a below-average fielding team. Jackson is good in center field, Jhonny Peralta is decent at shortstop, and Omar Infante is pretty good at second base, but that’s about it. Everyone else actively hurts them on defense, especially Cabrera and Fielder, with the possible exception of Hunter in right field, though most of his value last year came from his arm, and we’ll see if that holds up.

Oct 24, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Jose Valverde (46) walks back to the dugout after being relieved by manager Jim Leyland (middle) in the seventh inning during game one of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at AT

The great question is if the Tigers are so great, how come they only won 88 games last year? Well, the defense and base running are a part of it. But the real answer? The bullpen. It was 10^th in the AL in ERA and blew 16 saves last season, which doesn’t include games it blew before a save opportunity was in place. The Tigers lost 23 games via a relief pitcher, which means 23 times last year, the rotation handed a game over to the bullpen either tied or in the lead and lost that game. The Royals only lost 21 games in relief, and their bullpen pitched over 100 innings more than the Tigers’. To put it in greater perspective, the Texas Rangers bullpen pitched roughly the same number of innings as the Tigers’ and lost only 14 games.

And really, there isn’t much to indicate that the bullpen will be a lot better, but bullpens are finicky. Meaning it’s tough to count on their bullpen being bad again. More likely, their bullpen will be average, and won’t lose them so many games next season.

In a way, though, I’m glad the Tigers are as good as they are on paper. It makes the notion of the Royals chasing them a little more exciting. James Shields in interviews compares the 2013 Royals to the 2008 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. I’m not sure it’s a fitting comparison, but the Devil Rays had two mammoth teams in their division to compete against and were better for it. Yes, the Tigers are great on paper. They are most certainly the favorites in the division, but sometimes something special happens.

And I’m back to unfounded optimism.

September 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) drives the ball to right field against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

*The other two are James Shields and Alex Gordon because I don’t think many think the Royals have a chance to win without either of these three. Someone in the comments will inevitably mention Billy Butler, and while he’s very important, he doesn’t play defense and is a liability on the bases—barely missed the top three.

For proof, let’s look at who replaced him during his time out of the lineup in 2012. While the Royals’ record wasn’t tremendously improved by his return, which was probably the result of his impact being offset by a slide from Mike Moustakas and the continued ineptness from the starting staff, his added value compared to those he replaced was ENORMOUS. In 74 games, Perez produced 2.6 WAR (from Fangraphs). Humberto Quintero racked up .3 in 43 games, Brayan Pena was -.3 in 68 games. In just a few more games than Pena, Perez was worth nearly 3 WAR more. That’s incredible. His 2.6 WAR was ninth best in MLB among catchers, and he only had 305 PA.

From a strictly offensive standpoint, Perez simply produces more runs than most catchers in the league (and he’ll turn 23 in May). Among qualifying catchers, Perez would have been eighth in wRC+ (weighted runs per PA plus) at 114, just behind A.J. Pierzynski—but he didn’t qualify. Many of the other catchers on that list are primarily offensive catchers, guys like Pierzynski, Joe Mauer, and Ryan Doumit, and he hung with them in his age 22 season.

Back to Perez’s stand-ins. Perez has a wRC of 41, which means by this measure he created 41 runs. In 340 combined PA, Quintero and Pena created only 25 runs, 10 for Quintero and 15 for Pena. Both of those were below league average per plate appearance. I’m not certain, but I don’t see Brett Hayes doing much better.

Of course, it’s the amazing defense that makes Perez an oddity. Unlike Pierzynski, the league doesn’t commit repeated grand larceny on Perez. Pierzynski had -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) in 2012; Perez had 9 in 74 games. Many compare Perez to Yadier Molina, and looking at the numbers from last season, that seems reasonable. Molina led the league with 16 DRS—a number Perez may have reached in a full season of work. Only Molina and Buster Posey have the same type of dynamic catching ability mixed with firepower on offense that Perez has. Both of those players have led their teams to World Series championships. Coincidence? I think not.

I like numbers and stats and things, but for this type of assessment, we need also to imagine. Let’s close our eyes and ask this question. Can you imagine the Cardinals winning their championships without Molina? Can you imagine the Royals winning with Hayes catching every day? If you answered yes to the first one, I can see your point. Those Cardinal teams had Albert Pujols and great pitching and a great manager. If you answered yes to the second one, you may be forgetting the Royals do not have Pujols or undeniably great pitching or a great manager. Perez actually means more to the Royals than Molina means to the Cardinals because the Royals have fewer proven players and fewer resources to obtain new players. The Royals need every run saved and created.

This is a sobering idea because Perez didn’t play the whole 2012 season. He’s a big catcher with a lot of potential for injury. If he gets hurt, I cannot imagine the Royals competing for a playoff spot. In that sense, their season rests, in part, on his body. All the projections and optimism and expectations mean very little if he gets hurt. The same might be true of Shields and Gordon; they seem like lynchpins. It’s an article for another time, but it seems like small-market teams have more lynchpins because of their inability to replace fallen players. I think we can safely say that the Royals would have no ability to replace Perez. He’s a weapon few have and one the Royals cannot live without.

And….Gasp! Your Royals fan wants a jersey! But how will you know what player’s jersey to invest in? Royals players seem to zoom in and out of Kansas City as if Kauffman Stadium was a giant revolving door. And buying a Royals player’s jersey is like trying to keep up with the most current Iphone. You’re gonna have to trade it in next year for a new one. Well, fear not, procrastinating shopper! I will help you acquire a jersey that will (hopefully) last for awhile. The trick is to disregard guys you don’t think will be around for much longer…..or guys that stink…unless you’re trying to make a point. Well, we’ll get to that.

I hope this gives you some direction in your holiday jersey-acquiring endeavors. And seriously. If you find an Jose Offerman jersey somewhere in the Large to X-large range, you let me know and we will figure out a way for you to get that to me. (You’ll see what I’m talking about in a minute.)

Let’s get started:

1. George Brett – Okay, this is kind of a cop-out, but…I mean…you can be assured that he’s never going to be traded. So there’s that.
2. Salvador Perez – Once he was back from injury last year, it looked like the Royals made one of the smartest moves in history by extending him right before Spring Training last year. This guy’s jersey is a long-term investment. It’s a smart buy.
3. Alex Gordon – Those who bought his jersey right after we drafted him have spent a couple of years sweating out the purchase, but he’s finally come up spades as a baseball player in the last few years. I think this would be a safe buy.
4. Carlos Beltran – Being that I was hardly alive the last time the Royals played a significant game in September/October, I can say that the first Royal I really followed with vigor was one Carlos Beltran. That guy was a great Royal. Heck, he was one of the few people who put on a Cardinal uniform last season that I didn’t loathe. I didn’t like him….but I didn’t loathe him either. Incidentally, please buy the ROYALS Beltran jersey and not the Cardinals one, unless you want to break your special Royals fan’s little heart.
5. (Insert Super Obscure Jersey Here) – I am a gentleman who loves an obscure jersey. A couple of years ago, I went to Chiefs training camp and saw a guy in a Dustin Colquitt PRO BOWL JERSEY! Mad respect goes to that guy for laying down lettuce for that outerwear. How many of those do you think have been sold. 3?….5?….It can’t be double digits. Anyways. I love when someone snags an obscure jersey to wear to games. I’m talking about your Jose Offerman jerseys, your Doug Mientkiewicz* jerseys and the like. If your Royals fan likes obscurity as much as I do, this may be the path for you to take. You may have to do a little research to figure out which obscure player would be best, but trust me….the overjoyed look on your loved one’s face will be well worth it. (*I just Googled Mientkiewicz’s name to see how to spell it. Did you know that guy is managing the Minnesota Class-A advanced team now? Wasn’t expecting that. Interesting.)

My high school was small enough that there was not a baseball team. We had track, cross-country, basketball, and eight-man football, but no baseball. I really started following the Royals passionately during my freshman year of high school. It wasn’t long before I felt I had the authority to act supremely snobbish whenever someone started talking about the team. I knew who Alex Gordon was. I knew Hochevar was going to be the next coming of Zack Greinke.*

*I didn’t know as much as I thought.

It wasn’t long before I realized that judging and mocking people who I think are “lesser fans” than myself was a waste of time.* Anymore, I think are willing to call yourself a Royals fan, you deserve no mockery from people who have, perhaps, followed the team for a couple more years than you have. You’re not really jumping on the bandwagon of a winning team. Heck, when and if the Royals ever amount to anything, I’m going to be so ecstatic about the state of things, I don’t think I’ll have time to get annoyed by “Royals fans” suddenly appearing out of the woodwork.

*Unless it’s a fan of another team telling me about how dumb Royals management is. Look, the Royals often make foolish decisions. But if I hear the “the Royals traded Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye!” argument, I will ignore you. It proves to me that you haven’t been tuning in for about ten years.

Anyways, this spiel actually comes from watching that new Dick’s Sporting Goods commercial that was released a few weeks ago. If you haven’t seen it, watch it here.

This reminds me of why I love sports in general and specifically, baseball. As an individual who majored in English and is currently a high school English teacher, I enjoy things for the stories they tell.

The reason I’m a fan of baseball? All the stories I’ve gotten to be a part of. Each game I’ve watched was a story. Each game I’ve attended was a story. Stories that I experienced with family and people close to me and that makes each story special.

The reason I love baseball is because when I’m sitting in the stands watching Alex Gordon lace a double into the corner to drive in two runs, I am immensely happy. And when Hochever gives up 7 earned runs in the first inning of a game, I am sick to my stomach.

“Well, uh….Luke has got good stuff…..and toughness….grit….words.” (Don McPeak-USA Today Sports)

Baseball tells a story and that is why I come back to the Royals year after year. The stories may not always be happy. But they are MY stories and that’s a connection that can’t be broken by how well the team plays.

Although, it’d be nice if the team could be good.

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Kansas City Royals infielder Irving Falu (19) looks on against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Royals 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

I know many of us are concerned with how the Royals’ starting rotation will look in 2013. It’s the most important issue, and if they acquired no position players and only starting pitching this offseason, most would call that wise, including me probably.

But that doesn’t mean this team has no holes in the lineup. It does. So, instead of giving you another starting pitching post, I’ve decided to talk about a position that concerns me moving into 2013 (actually two positions concern me, but my concern for right field is simply an understanding that Jeff Francoeur is terrible and holding a place for Wil Myers).

I’m a little concerned with how the second base situation will work out. Mike Vamosi recently wrote that he feels the Royals will continue to give Chris Getz opportunities at second base, not because Vamosi feels he deserves it but because Getz is beloved by Ned Yost and Dayton Moore. I think a fairly solid argument that Getz DOES NOT deserve to hold a position by himself exists. He’s a lifetime .257/.314/.316 hitter and even in his “bounce back” year last season, he only hit .275/.312/.360. He does have a decent glove at second base, but nothing that makes up for his very weak bat.

So, let’s look instead at the candidates who could potentially contribute. We know Getz can’t, or at least should only be used to platoon; that’s been proven. Johnny Giavotella was supposed to be the guy who unseated Getz, who brought offense to the second base position. That, of course, has not materialized, and I’m almost ready to write him off completely. Because if Giavotella can’t hit, he can’t play. He’s had 376 PA in the major leagues for a slash line of .242/.271/.340. That is nowhere near close to acceptable. He strikes out way too much, doesn’t walk enough, and if you watched him play at all looks overmatched by big league breaking stuff. So, as of right now, I’m not pulling for Johnny anymore.

I am, however, pulling for everyone’s favorite 29-year-old rookie, Irving Falu. This guy can play. Sabermatricians will hate him because he relies on a high BABIP to be successful. In 21 big league games last season (91 PA), he hit .341/.371/.435 with a .382 BABIP. He rarely walks, but he doesn’t strike out that often either. He puts a lot of balls in play, but in those 21 games, he had a 34.7 percent line drive rate. That means he was hitting a lot of line drives. It’s a small sample size, but I would love to see him get a chance in Spring Training to both make the club and see significant time at second base.

Tony Abreu also received some time at second base late in the season, but to me, he’s just a poor man’s Falu. He walks less and strikes out more. He also relies on a high BABIP, but even more so than Falu. In AAA last year, AAA mind you, he walked 3.1 percent of the time and struck out 15.2 percent of the time. That’s incredible. What’s even more incredible is that he did it while hitting .322. His BABIP was .365. In his major league time, he was considerably less effective with a BABIP of .298 and a batting average of just .257.

Right now, I’m thinking the answer is probably a platoon, Getz against righties and Falu against lefties (that is if Falu doesn’t win the starting job outright in Spring Training). Falu’s a switch hitter, but in a very small sample size against lefties last year he hit .385. Getz has, over his career, hit better against lefties, but that’s probably because he has around 800 more plate appearances against righties and only 288 against lefties in his whole career. Clearly, managers attempt to protect Getz against lefties.

Honestly, I’m not thrilled with the situation. I don’t want Getz playing at all, and though I like Falu and think he would make a fine utility infielder, I’m not sold on his ability to hit consistently with his inability to walk. He could certainly have success, and I really want him to. Vladimir Guerrero made a career off the approach Falu has, though he had much more power. If he can keep putting balls in play hard, he should take the starting job and keep it. If he can’t, the Royals will need to figure something out. Either a serviceable platoon situation or bringing someone in who can do the job.

It will be a subplot of Spring Training to follow, and a source of great anger in me if Falu is not even given consideration for a starting job at second base so that Yost can continue his love affair with the continually disappointing Getz.

I’d like to look more closely at Odorizzi because he is right on the cusp of not only being in the major leagues but reaching his potential as well, which is limited but not unimpressive.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi follows through with a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via US PRESSWIRE

Let us begin with his very, very brief stint with the big league club last year. During that time, he pitched seven innings, gave up four earned runs, allowed eight hits, four walks, and struck out four. Not much to be learned from those numbers, but if you remember, he had some control issues and gave up a few hits. But let’s say the extremely limited sample size doesn’t allow us to take anything significant from the statistical data itself.

To find substantial data, I dug into his minor league numbers. They were pretty good if somewhat misleading. His AAA ERA, 2.93, looks great, but if you probe a little deeper you see a 4.19 FIP. You also see a pretty high BB/9 rate, 3.35 and a high LOB% as well 81.3 percent. The worry I had for Odorizzi last year was his high number of hits and walks allowed. Essentially, he was allowing runners on base and then getting out of tough jams. It’s good he was getting out of jams; it’s not good that hitters were reaching base so much.

His H/9 to me hint at a point of concern, a question really. Does Odorizzi miss enough bats? It’s been stated that he doesn’t have electric stuff, and that’s all that’s going to keep him from being a true ace. In the majors an inability to miss bats, relegates a pitcher to 4-5 starter range, and the Royals really don’t need anymore 4-5 starters. In his two starts at the end of the season, Odorizzi induced a swinging strike 6.6 percent of the time (small sample size I know). For comparison, Duffy induced a swinging strike 9.3 percent of the time last year. Justin Verlander has done so at a 9.8 percent clip over his career. Odorizzi’s looks low compared to those two, but keep in mind it was his first stint in the majors and the sample size is small. In Duffy’s first season, he got swinging strikes only 7.7 percent of the time.

Odorizzi has this pattern, you see. He gets a taste of a level, struggles on that level, and then comes back and dominates the next season. At least, that’s what he did with AA (I don’t know if you can call it a pattern if it only happened once). He struggled at Northwest Arkansas in his last seven starts of 2011, came back in 2012 and destroyed Texas League hitters to the tune of 11.13 K/9 and a 2.20 FIP. That’s incredible, especially considering the league.

I think Odorizzi will end up back in AAA. What I’m looking for is his bounce back. I’m looking to see if some of the problems that were covered up in AAA last season will be resolved this season. Will he get his strikeout rate back up (it dipped to 7.38 K/9 at AAA)? Will he get his walks and hits allowed down? This should allow him to fix one of his other problems from AAA last year, short outings. He had so many people on base, his pitch counts sored, and he often didn’t make it past five innings.

If Odorizzi starts hot in Omaha, I’d love to see him get a chance in late May or early June. He’s a smart, poised young pitcher. A little refinement, and the Royals could have the first two pieces of their in-house pitching solution in place (Duffy and Odorizzi).

September 10, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Chris Volstad (32) reacts after a pitch in the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

A quick heads up for readers of this blog: 90 percent of what you read this offseason will be about starting pitching. For me, this is a good thing. The Royals need starting pitching so we should write primarily about starting pitching. I’m just warning you so you’re not surprised by the repetitive theme of starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

With that in mind I’d like to write about … starting pitching. Specifically, the Earth shattering move the Royals made last week, signing Chris Volstad off waivers. Michael already covered this briefly, but I’d like to think more about it because I just read a post by the great and wise Rany Jazayerli that got me considering the Volstad move.

Let’s first note where everyone is starting the conversation: Volstad is not very good. We can all pretty much agree on that. He’s about replacement level. Nothing special but not Kyle Davies. He was once a well thought of prospect who never matched the expectations people had for him. He’s 26, right handed, doesn’t throw overly hard, and is extremely tall. He relies heavily on his defense and isn’t a strikeout pitcher.

I’m not going to consider whether or not Volstad is a good sign. It’s really too early to know that or even speculate with certainty because of how unset the Royals rotation is. I want to consider whether or not there is any way Volstad can have success in Kansas City.

After having poured over statistics, and having watched him pitch for the Cubs last season, my answer is maybe but probably not. I would put his chances of success in Kansas City at 20 percent, which is better than I would have given him with the Cubs.

Why so low? For one reason, moving into the AL for the first time will probably hurt Volstad. He’s only ever pitched in the NL so his strikeout numbers, never very good, will probably slip a bit. He walks to many people, and in the AL that kills. His lack of strikeout stuff makes him a wannabe Derek Lowe without Lowe’s command (in his prime anyway).

So, why so high at 20 percent (which is 20 points higher than Luke Hochevar)? Because Volstad is only 26, and he’s had “success” before. I use “success” in its loosest form. He’s never been Justin Verlander, but he’s been a decent pitcher before. His sinker has decent movement. His only real obstacle, that is, to reaching his potential as a solid 4, potentially decent 3, is his lack of command. He walked 3.48 hitters per nine innings last year. That’s not good at all when he’s only striking out 5 or 6 hitters per nine (in the NL). In 2011, maybe his best year statistically (3.64 xFIP), he only walked 2.66 hitters per nine. He needs to be around the 2-2.5 range to be effective.

If he can locate his sinker down in the zone consistently and get ground balls without walking people, he can be successful in Kauffman Stadium with the Royals’ defense. That’s a very big if. That’s why he only gets 20 percent, but that’s better than Hochevar’s 0 percent.

The bigger questions still lie out there. Will Volstad make the rotation? Make the team? What role will he fill? Isn’t he just Luis Mendoza, only taller and maybe more volatile? These are all questions that need to be answered. Not now, but eventually.

August 19, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie (33) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I’m not sure I really understand this. Jeremy Guthrie was the Royals’ best starting pitcher after joining the team in July. The Royals gave him a chance to right the sinking ship that was his career. He did it, and he was thankful for the opportunity. So thankful, he expressed his willingness to negotiate a contract extension as soon as possible. This was during the season.

What was the Royals’ response? We’ll wait.

Excuse me? Why? What is to be gained from waiting? It’s safe to say that among the most important goals the Royals should be reaching for is the re-signing of Guthrie. It’s the general consensus among Royals talking heads (myself included) that the Royals will need to find at least two starting pitchers who can range from 2-3 in the rotation to be competitive. This formula, though, is predicated on the re-signing of Guthrie. If the Royals cannot re-sign Guthrie, they need three new starting pitchers of 2-3 quality.

Finding two quality starting pitchers is hard enough. Finding three in one offseason is bordering on impossible, especially when considering the current state of Royals pitching prospects. Kansas City has players with plenty of potential: Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, Kyle Smith (who people sell short for some reason), John Lamb. But none of these players is Opening Day 2013 ready. Most are 2014-2015 prospects, which means none of them will be stepping up to fill the void for next season.

And really, you can’t have enough starting pitching anyway. Even if one or two of these prospects were ready to take the ball in April, the Royals should still be talking to Guthrie yesterday. My favorite theory of pitching development is to have as many quality pitchers as possible, have them compete for spots which makes them better, and then when someone inevitably gets hurt, the pitching staff can maintain. Bonus: the extra quality pitchers are trade commodities. This idea that one pitcher might block another is, as Joe Biden would put it, malarkey.

My fear is that the Royals missed a golden opportunity with Guthrie. By talking to him in September and making it clear they want him around, they could have squelched the pull of free agency, the pull to have teams bid for him. Certainly, they can overpay for him once free agency starts, but that type of short sightedness doesn’t help small-market teams. By talking early, they held the potential to keep his agent form putting feelers out and seeing what market demand might be, or at the very least, the gesture shows the level of support the Royals were willing to provide.

Every day a deal doesn’t get done, the pull of free agency grows. Other teams saw his turn around after being traded from Colorado. They know he can pitch under the right conditions, and other teams are more willing to utilize statistical analysis to understand just what they can get and should be willing to offer Guthrie.

So, I return to my question: Why didn’t the Royals start talking contract extension with Guthrie in September? Did they want to see him start one or two more games? If that’s the case, it’s ridiculous. One or two more starts won’t tell a team much about a pitcher. I’m thinking, as I puzzle over this question that truly confuses me, that maybe it’s a case of paralysis by analysis. Maybe the Royals front office was afraid of the downside of signing Guthrie and that froze them into passivity.

Small-market teams cannot be deliberate. They cannot wait and see. Some people criticize Dayton Moore for the quick moves he makes in free agency. I don’t mind this strategy. I don’t think it’s always the best, but I like the idea that he has a strategy that attempts to level the economic playing field. He needs to turn that strategy to Guthrie, to sign him before free agency opens, as soon as possible in fact. If he’s reading this, and I’m sure he is, he needs to stop and call Guthrie’s agent immediately, even before writing a snazzy comment about how awesome my idea is.

It was hard this time finding out that the 2012 Royals were consistent losers. My question was Is there anything in the win-loss statistics that might provide insight into what the Royals might fix moving forward? A statistical anomaly that might explain why they lost more than I had hoped for and expected?

September 20, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals fans show their support as the team celebrates after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The answer? No there is not. It turns out the Royals were pretty much just losers across the board. They had a pretty even home-road split. They had a pretty even first half-second half split. I thought maybe in one-run games, but their numbers in one-run games are actually much better than their overall record (27-26). They didn’t get blown out much more than their overall record would indicate. They just lost a lot of three to four-run games.

Their win-loss numbers inside the division aren’t overly interesting. They had a good year against Chicago, a bad year against Minnesota, and everything else was pretty much expected—two games up on Cleveland and destroyed by Detroit. Overall, they were 34-38 in the division—not surprising and fairly boring.

I did learn that the Royals played a pretty tough schedule outside their division. Of their 18 opponents, 11 finished with records .500 or over, with Cleveland and Minnesota being two of the seven that didn’t. Against those winning teams, the Royals were 47-50, a pretty respectable record considering how bad the overall record was.

The one statistically interesting thing I found was how terrible the Royals win-loss record was against losing teams. Against losing teams, teams with records below .500, they were 25-40. That’s pretty bad, and much of that comes from the horrific years against Minnesota and Seattle. Combined the Royals were 8-18 against those two teams. That’s just sad. I think the Washington Generals could do better … at baseball I mean.

If you listen to the sabrmatricians, which more people should, they’ll tell you that win-loss records aren’t a great indicator of anything other than how many games a team won and lost. To a degree, they’re right. But what the win-loss records can do, sometimes, is show people big patterns about a team’s ability to win and lose. If they lose a lot of one-run games, a fan base might know that it’s a late inning problem or that those loses are a statistical oddity that might shake out the following year. If a team has an incredible win-loss in September, that says something as well, usually that they’re facing minor leaguers who will be selling insurance before too long.

The win-loss records from the Royals are somewhat enlightening if not encouraging. They say that the 2012 Royals were consistent losers with no statistical oddity (in terms of win-loss only) that points to an easily found culprit. Of course, we can point to starting pitching and management and timely hitting or whatever, and those might be the answer. But the answer to my question is simply that the Royals of 2012 were consistently terrible, not up and down terrible, but reliable in their losing.

The Royals Fell Flat as the Month of September Ended.(Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

Going into the last full month of the season, the Royals had some nice momentum and the phrase “.500″ was even starting to creep back into some people’s vocabulary. They had just swept the Detroit Tigers and put together their best month of the season. Any momentum was quickly halted with a disappointing doubleheader defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Twins on September 1st. They continued with their poor start to the month, losing 5 of their first 7 games. They also ended the month with a thud, losing 7 out of their last 8. However, sandwiched nicely in-between disappointing streaks was a pretty good stretch. They beat up on the first place White Sox and won 9 out of 14 through the middle of the month. They looked like a different team during that stretch, one that could beat anyone. However, towards the end of the month, the Royals seemed to be falling apart at the seams. An influx of injuries, mental mistakes, multiple errors, and mindless mishaps were all signs that pointed to a team that looked to be completely exhausted. Here’s a look at what happened in the Month of September…
I. Record/Standings
a. September Overall Record: 12-17 (.414)
Season Record: 71-88 (.447)
AL Central: 3rd (of 5)
American League: 10th (of 14)
Major League: 22nd (of 30)
b. September Home Record
7-9 (.438)
Season Home Record: 36-42 (.462)
c. September Road Record
5-8 (.385)
Season Road Record: 35-46 (.432)
d. September Streaks
Winning: 4 (9/19-9/22: White Sox, Indians)
Losing: 6 (9/23-9/28: Indians, Tigers, Indians)
Current: Lost 1
e. September Opponents
Twins: 3-3
Rangers: 1-3
White Sox: 4-2
Angels: 1-2
Indians: 3-3
Tigers: 0-4
II. Ned Yost Quote of the Month
9/12-after being “determined” to get Luke Hochevar his first win since July 31st. Hochevar gave up 5 ER in 5 IP, but the offense gave him a lead and the Royals ended up winning 10-5.
“He hasn’t won a game in his last seven starts and I wanted to get him over that hump,” Yost said. “He was working hard out there, maybe a little too hard, but he was trying with everything he had to get over that hump, too. I was bound and determined to give him every opportunity to do it. Part of my job is to get guys in a frame of mind so they can go out and compete and be successful. Sometimes you’ve got to let ‘em work through some things.”
III. High Point
Beating the Angels with Late Inning Power on 9/15
Zack Greinke took the mound to face his old team in his old stadium and kept the Royals in check for 8 1/3 innings. Jeremy Guthrie nearly matched him, pitching 8 full innings but giving up a single run in two separate innings. The Royals had scattered just 5 hits throughout the game, and things looked bleak. However, after a leadoff strikeout by Alcides Escobar in the 9th, Alex Gordon stroked a single and chased the former Cy Young Winner. Ernesto Frieri replaced Greinke and on the first pitch he threw, Billy Butler hit a long home run to the deepest part of the park. Just like that, it was a tie game. Salvador Perez came up next, and three pitches later, hit a walk-off home run to end the game. Like a skilled ninja, the Royals lured the Angels deep into their lair, then swiftly dispatched their opponent in dramatic fashion.
IV. Low Point
Getting swept in a four game series by the Tigers on 9/27
After playing tough against the first place White Sox, the Royals went to Detroit to take on another contender. I saw it as a chance to see how the Royals could stack up against the Tigers. Well, it turns out that they really didn’t. The Tigers won the first 3 games, then in the 4th, the Royals looked completely worthless. In the game, the Royals made 5 errors, including 3 by the usually slick-fielding Mike Moustakas. Doug Fister tied an American League record by striking out 9 Royals in a row. It was just embarrassing. The loss meant a rare 4-game sweep, and a 5-game losing streak for the Royals.
V. Surprises and Disappointments
1) Hosmer’s Forgettable Season.(Disappointment) Things just never really got going for our talented first baseman in 2012. His early struggles that everyone thought he’d be able to shake have refused to go away. Hosmer hit .179 during the month of September and ended the month, and maybe his season, by diving for a ball and partially tearing his rotator cuff. Here’s hoping that the disappointment of 2012 serves as motivation for him to work harder than he ever has during this offseason so he can try to redeem himself next year.
2) Going Streaking. (Surprise) During September, the Royals went streaking in both directions. While this might be fun to watch on a college campus, it can be frustrating as a baseball fan. The disappointment in this is that the losing streaks outweighed the winning. They had a losing streak of 6 in a row that came immediately on the heels of a 4-game winning streak. While the losing streak seemed long, it was still only half as long as their losing streak in April. They’ve got to find ways to not lose so many games in a row.
3) Picking Favorites. (Disappointment) I know it’s not over yet, but the Royals can be credited with giving the Detroit Tigers the AL Central crown. They played with a vengeance against the then-first place White Sox, and then rolled over against Detroit. It’s got to infuriate the White Sox, who have imploded over the past month or so. Losing to the Royals is never a good thing, but it’s something they’ll be thinking about all winter. Did the Royals decide that they wanted the Tigers to win the division? Maybe – I mean, wouldn’t you rather see the Tigers win than the White Sox?
4) No Walking. (Disappointment) The Royals drew just 59 walks for the month of September. That’s almost half the number of walks that the Yankees drew and the least in the Major Leagues. This contributed to the Royals having the 2nd worst OBP in the AL, better only than the Boston Red Sox. Going into Saturday’s win at Cleveland, the 5-game road trip had produced just 1 walk and 45 strikeouts. That must have been brought to their attention, because they drew 5 walks in that Saturday game.
VI. Transactions
1) 9/1: Recalled OF David Lough from AAA Omaha and C Manny Pina from AA Northwest Arkansas.
2) 9/4: Recalled RHP Jeremy Jeffress from AA Northwest Arkansas.
3) 9/14: Recalled OF Jason Bourgeois from AAA Omaha.
4) 9/16: Called Up RHP Jake Odorizzi from AAA Omaha. Recalled RHP Nathan Adcock, INF Irving Falu, C Adam Moore, and LHP Tommy Hottovy from AAA Omaha.

Billy Butler Continues to Mash in 2012. (Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

VII. Player of the Month
Billy Butler
Billy just continues to have a great season. He played in every game during the month of September, and hit .336 with 11 doubles and 24 RBI. Billy had 8 multi-hit games in September, including 5 games where he had 3 hits. His consistent bat hammered out streaks of 6, 10, and just ended another 10 game hitting streak. All in all, he hit in every one but three games during the month. He’s putting up numbers comparable to those that he put up in 2010, but with 30 more RBI and almost double the amount of Home Runs. He heads into the final homestand of the year hitting .312, slugging .511, and with 107 RBI. He has filled the team’s need for a full-time designated hitter, and is definitely one position that won’t be in question going into 2013. It will be nice to stand up and applaud Billy for his finest season this coming week.
Honorable Mention: Alex Gordon. Despite being moved out of his leadoff spot, Gordon has continued to hit – and field. While Alex’s average was down in September, he continued to hit doubles. He’s now got 51 on the season, which ties him with Butler in 2010 & is just 3 behind Hal McRae’s club record of 54. Gordon also gets kudos for drawing 11 walks in a month where it seemed like the Royals forgot how to do so.

The Results Were Usually Good When Kelvin Herrera Took the Ball in September. (Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

VIII. Pitcher of the Month
Kelvin Herrera
Herrera was the most opportunistic pitcher out of the Royals bullpen in September. He appeared in 14 games throughout the month, and the Royals won 8 of those games. Herrera walked away with a 3-1 record and a 1.84 ERA. He collected Saves in both opportunities on September 22nd & September 29th. In the latter, he got to come in and pitch the bottom of the 14th inning after the Royals were able to break the tie in the top of the inning. Herrera has been a solid Right-Handed arm for the Royals in 2012. His 2.38 ERA over 83 1/3 innings is impressive. Also impressive is his Walk to Strikeout ration of 21/75. In a month where the starting pitching wasn’t all that great, the bullpen has had to carry the weight. That’s something that isn’t solely a September issue, and we’ve got to give credit to the guys in the bullpen for helping out the starters all year. For Herrera, he earned his spot on 2013′s roster in September.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Guthrie. Despite only having a 1-0 record in 5 outings, the Royals won 4 of those games. He pitched at least 7 innings in four of those outings, and never gave up more than 4 earned runs. His ERA for the month was an impressive 2.25. He’s gotten better as the season has progressed & he’ll get one more start on Tuesday night.
IX. Compare to September 2011
The 2011 Royals came together to form their “team of the future” by the time September hit. As a result, they wowed Kansas City fans by playing well and having their best month of the entire season. At 15-10, they outscored their opponents by 29 runs. The month also included their longest winning streak of the season (7 games). The Royals lost their final home game of 2011 on September 21st before going on the road for the final 6 games of the year. They won 3 of those games before dropping the final 2 games of the season in Minnesota. The games in September were heavily weighted to AL Central opponents, and the Royals were 2-1 against division-winning Detroit. They were good against Chicago again, going 5-2 against the White Sox. They also went to the West Coast to play the Mariners and A’s, going 4-3.
Royals starters had a good month, with several guys compiling good records, good ERAs, good walk-to-strikeout ratios, yada, yada, yada. Joakim Soria (remember him?) had 4 saves, Greg Holland had 2. Offensively, Salvador Perez had arrived in full, and hit .375 with a .513 Slugging %. Mike Moustakas had figured things out, and hit .352 with 4 HR. Eric Hosmer hit .349 with 19 RBI. Even Jeff Francoeur was on fire, hitting .329 for the month and pounding 5 HR.
September 2011 saw just one call-up by the Royals, probably because everyone else was already in Kansas City. Kelvin Herrera took to the mound in the top of the 8th against the Tigers on September 21st. He promptly hit Ryan Raburn with the first pitch. He’d proceed to give up a double and a home run, allowing 3 runs in his 1 inning of work. He pitched just one other time 5 days later and would fare much better, not allowing a hit.
X. October Outlook
The Royals have just three games left, a final series at the K against the First Place Detroit Tigers. The Tigers dominated the Royals last week, sweeping a four game series. The two teams have swept each other in each of their last four series. We’ll see what everyone has left in the tank, and if they can top their win total from 2011. They currently sit at 71 wins on the season, which is exactly how many they won a year ago. With just one win against the Tigers, the organization can claim that “progress” is being made. If the Tigers can beat the Royals just once, they’ll win the AL Central, so they’ll definitely have something to play for.
During this final homestand, there’s really only one promotion left in October at the K: They’ll be handing out Early Bird Schedules and Team Photos at all three games.
XI. Summary
There are three games left in a season that began with such hope, such promise. A lot has happened in 2012, including having the nation’s eyes focused on our stadium for the All-Star Game. There have been many ups and downs as we’ve gone. There were signs of success and signs of strife, but we mostly saw signs of a young and inconsistent team. Hopefully, with another year of experience under their belt, they will come back stronger and more seasoned in 2013. For now though, they should focust on these remaining three games. We’ll see how Ned Yost is able to motivate them for this final homestand. I know that they don’t really have anything to play for, but I hope that pride still exists, and the guys will come out and give the home fans something to cheer for this week.

August 21, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost (3) in the dugout during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve heard it on repeat since before the 2012 season started, and we’ll continually hear it all offseason. The Royals need starting pitching. They need it bad. They need it like Zac Brown needs wool knit hats to cover his bald head.

But perhaps the focus on starting pitching is obscuring the fact that the Royals are an imperfect team in other respects as well. With that in mind, I give you a list of the other things the Royals need to make 2013 less of a train wreck than 2012.

A near elite offense

The lack of high level numbers offensively was a tough reality for the Royals in 2012. They’ve scored 669 runs in 159 games, that’s 4.2 runs per game good for 20^th in the majors. Compare that to last season when they scored 730 runs, 10^th in the majors, and 4.5 runs per game. In a season when people thought a great offense and a mediocre pitching staff gave them a chance at .500, the offense actually got worse.

To change this, a few obvious things need to take place. Eric Hosmer has to hit like he did during his time in the majors in 2011. Mike Moustakas has to take another step forward, especially with his plate discipline. It’s fine if he only hits .265, but if he does that, he has to hit for power and get on base a little bit.

Step two, Jeff Francoeur has to go (and hopefully I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know). He is terrible, and really there’s no other way to define him. Wil Myers should be the one to take his place, but a replacement level player would be an improvement. Francoeur has a -1.3 WAR this year. Yes, this man who has 587 plate appearances for the Royals is not even at replacement level.

If these things don’t happen, the Royals have no chance. They cannot put up average or even above average offensive numbers and compete. They must be near an elite level offensively to compete.

Even better defense

The defensive metrics for the Royals are probably pretty good. By most accounts the Royals have a very rangy defense with good arms in the outfield. They also have a stud defensive catcher who can greatly impact the game throwing out runners.

But from a consistency standpoint, 2012 wasn’t the greatest year for the Royals defense. We too often saw our All-Star caliber shortstop drop routine groundballs that for him should be like tying his shoes, and that was indicative of the number of routine mistakes the Royals made this season. In terms of fielding percentage, the Royals’ are 24^th in the majors at .982. Last year, they were 12^th with .985. Next year, they need to be top-8 and do well in the areas the metrics bring into play, which is almost a given unless something unexpected happens.

Because the pitching will be bad and they probably won’t strike out many hitters, the defense needs to be elite. Kauffman Stadium sets up well for pitchers like Jeremy Guthrie who have trouble with the long ball, but in order to neutralize a pitching staff that doesn’t strike anybody out, as much as they can anyway, the Royals need elite defense.

Better managing

Normally, I do not assign much value to managing in baseball. They don’t hit, pitch, field, or run so how on Earth can we say they win or lose baseball games? But after watching some of the atrocious decisions made by Ned Yost this season, I’m starting to change my tune a bit.

If anyone ever needed to just get out of his team’s way, it’s Yost. If there were a WAR for managers it would clearly show that Yost lost the Royals games this year. He bunts in ridiculous situations (apparently he still thinks he’s in the NL and has been transported to 1920). His dedication to Francoeur makes me physically ill, and he always seems to stick with a pitcher just long enough for him to put a game out of reach.

They won’t replace him, but if he could just see the error of his own ways … that won’t happen either. They might be screwed on this one.

Adam Moore behind the plate in Omaha (Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas)

After being on the roster for twelve days, Adam Moore has caught only once and Manny Pina hasn’t played at all.

Adam Moore made quite an impact in his Royals debut. He was tabbed to catch Jake Odorizzi in his big league debut last Sunday. This was primarily because he’d been catching Jake in Omaha for a good chunk of the summer. After leading Odorizzi through three scoreless innings against the Indians, Moore stepped to the plate for his first Royals at-bat in the bottom of the third.

He promptly deposited the third pitch he saw over the Left Field wall.

He became just the fourth Royal ever to accomplish the feat in their first at-bat. He was the first to do it since Calvin Pickering back in 2004. We all know how his career panned out. I actually got to witness Pickering’s debut & can remember thinking that he was a monster who was going to hit a million home runs for the Royals. He ended up hitting eight.

That bomb last week was Moore’s first major league home run since September 7, 2010. In all fairness, it was his first major league at-bat since April 6, 2011.

He also walked, grounded out, and struck out to go 1-3 on the afternoon. Not a bad debut, but he hasn’t seen the field since. I’m of the opinion that if you call them up, you play them. At this point, we’ve seen enough of Salvador Perez to know that he’s a stud, and after missing the first part of the season with an injury, it might not be a bad idea to give the kid some rest. We also know everything we need to know about Bryan Pena. We know that he’s a servicable backup, but not much of a first baseman. Either way, if Pena, Pina, and Moore are going to compete to backup Salvy in 2013, this is a good chance to start the competition.

Manny Pina saw some time in Kansas City last summer. He caught four games in August and had 15 ABs. He had two hits (including a double) in his debut, and then went back to Omaha for the remainder of the season. After a knee injury in February of this year, he spent most of the season at AA Northwest Arkansas. He hit .260 with 5 HR. Before spring training, he was expected to compete for the backup job.

As far as Adam Moore goes, he caught for Odorizzi last week – will he catch for him again on Saturday? I sure hope so. I’m interested to see some more at-bats out of him so we can see if it’s worth trying to keep him around for next year. With just five games left in the season, it will be interesting who gets the starts behind the dish.

The Royals Celebrated 12 Wins over Division-Leading Chicago in 2012.(Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Not as a contender of course, but as the pesky underachievers who could spoil the party. Their play over the next 10 days will determine the winner of the American League Central Division.

To the Chicago White Sox fan’s relief, they and the Royals are done seeing each other for the season. The Royals beat up on the Sox again this year, going 12-6 against the self-proclaimed “Good Guys”. (The Royals were 11-7 against them in 2011) The Royals played a big part in Detroit’s run at the Division Title by winning these games, and by winning 4 of 6 against the Sox in September. Going into today, Chicago finds themselves at just 9-12 for the month, in the middle of a five-game losing streak, and clinging to a one-game lead in the Division.

Of the Royals’ remaining 10 games, seven of those will be against the team that has been chasing the White Sox for most of 2012 – the Detroit Tigers. This could either be good news or bad news for Tigers fans. Up to this point, the Tigers hold a 7-4 advantage over the Royals this season. However, in their most recent matchup, the Royals swept Detroit in a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. Before that, the Tigers were the ones doing the sweeping, winning their three-game series in Detroit back in July. All in all, the Tigers are 4-1 vs. the Royals at home and 3-3 at Kauffman.

It shapes up to be an advantage for Detroit, considering that the first four games are in Detroit, with tonight’s game being a make-up of a rainout on April 30th. Justin Verlander will face the Royals tonight, and if the rotation holds true, the Royals would not have to face him again. However, it’s likely that if Detroit’s playoff chances come down to needing a win on the final day of the season, they’d move the Cy Young winner up a day to face KC on October 3rd. Verlander on the hill does not mean an automatic win for the Tigers though – the last time he faced the Royals, he was roughed up about as bad as he ever has been. You know that will be on his mind when he takes the ball tonight.

While the Royals & Tigers are battling in Detroit, Chicago will be facing Cleveland for three at home, then will welcome in the Tampa Bay Rays for a four-game set. Chicago is a healthy 8-4 against Cleveland this year, and are 3-0 against Tampa Bay. With seven straight home games, they’ve got to like their odds. Advantage Chicago?

After this first four-game set between the Tigers and Royals, Detroit will travel to Minnesota for a three-game series. The Tigers are just 8-7 against Minnesota this year, but are 5-1 in the Twin Cities.

The final three games of the year will come down to Chicago at Cleveland and Detroit at Kansas City. Depending on what happens over the next week, the race could come down to these three games. Royals fans should treat this as our World Series. These will be games that Detroit will HAVE to win, so they’ll be all business. It will be great experience for the Royals to strap it on and go toe to toe with the Tigers to see how they match up. In a season of disappointment and underwhelming achievements, it will be good to see how our guys measure up against a team in the hunt for the playoffs.

Chicago definitely has the home field advantage going into this final stretch, getting to play 7 of 10 at home. Detroit is playing better baseball right now, but not by much. They’re just 10-11 in September and have lost 3 of 4. As a matter of fact, at 11-11, the Royals record for September is better than both contending teams. If they’re able to keep it up, Chicago will win the division.

As for the Royals, they’ll finish in third place, their best finish since 2003. That was also their last winning season. They won’t break the .500 mark again this year, but they will have a say in which team raises a banner as the 2012 AL Central Champions.

August 5, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals players Jeff Francoeur (21) and Brayan Pena (27) celebrate after Francoeur brought in the winning run against the Texas Rangers during the tenth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

A few days ago, I spoke to the class I teach about this very lyric: “The future’s so bright I gotta wear shades.” I used it as an example of how frequently we take something out of context and make that thing mean what we want it to mean. For those of you who do not watch those VH1 countdown shows about one-hit wonders, this song is often misunderstood as a song of hope for the future. It’s actually a song about nuclear escalation told through the excitement of a young scientist who knows his business will keep booming.

While the deepest parts of my heart want to look at the Royals’ success over the last couple of months and see a bright, bright future, this song and the idea of how people used it force me to rethink.

I don’t mean to be the wet blanket, and I want people to have enthusiasm about the Royals. But we’ve seen this story before. The Royals’ inconsistency digs deep holes they’re never able to get out of, but then, they play well when the games mean absolutely nothing. Last season, the Royals were (15-10) in September, their only winning month since April. Some thought this was a positive sign that after a season of ups and downs, they’d finally found the lineup that would lead them into the future.

This season clearly proved that hope a pipe dream. Why? Because, just like our favorite 1980’s one-hit wonder, people took that time out of context. It was September, a time when if you’re playing for nothing, winning gets a little easier. It’s also a time when teams with comfortable leads start using players who they otherwise wouldn’t to rest players for a playoff push. But to have a winning record in September while out of contention is like dominating in a recreation softball league. It would mean something … if it weren’t a recreation softball league.

It’s easy to see why fans do this. We really want a winner. We want a winner so bad we’re willing to see one in a team not ready to start winning. Coming into this season, fans knew that the starting pitching wasn’t good enough, but we allowed ourselves to believe the lineup would be great. It hasn’t been. It’s been slightly below average (18th in runs scored). We allowed ourselves to believe that a great lineup could give us a .500 season. Sure, injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the Royals, but that’s the thing about the fantasy scenarios we construct, nothing goes wrong in them. Injuries and ineffectiveness happen to everyone. That’s reality.

Since August 1, the Royals are 24-19. That’s a respectable record, and for the Royals, it’s a very good record. The team is playing well. Jeremy Guthrie has looked like an All-Star. Eric Hosmer is turning things around. Some of the young players, like Tony Abreu and David Lough, are doing well during their opportunity. And what does all of this mean? Not very much actually. In a game built entirely on consistency over the course of an entire season, playing well for two months means virtually nothing.

Does that mean the Royals will be bad again next year? Not necessarily. But we can look at the roster and very safely say that it won’t be that much better than this year’s. Maybe the Royals have the good sense to resign Guthrie. Maybe Jake Odorizzi makes the team out of spring training and is effective immediately (though I’m increasingly thinking this won’t be the case). Maybe, the Royals sign a starter in the offseason (I doubt they sign anyone of significance). But what will be significantly different?

Well, Hosmer might not slump the entire year like he did this year. Perhaps Luke Hochevar will no longer be on the team. Maybe Jeff Francoeur will finally be asked to just stop, and Wil Myers will get his chance.

These are all ‘maybes” and “what ifs.” So, I guess what I’m getting at is that if we are to avoid the let down that this season feels like, we need to see the future through shades that are more tinted with realism. Hope is good. We should feel hope. But let’s not let hope invade the territory of how we see reality. They can be separated, I think, and as someone who hates the let down of a 12-game losing streak and terrible Hochevar performances, I’m going to try to do that. I’ll root very hard that they play well, and I’ll hope. But I won’t see moments of Royals success and assume this means overall success is just around the corner.

"We've Made the Big Time - Omaha!" (Matt Ryerson-US PRESSWIRE)

The Royals should put all of their effort into making the Omaha Storm Chasers the most dominant Minor League Baseball team in History. Forget about the Royals. Let them be the doormat of the American League for the foreseeable future. Put forth zero effort into their success.

Now, I’m not ignorant. I know that the purpose of the minor league system is to develop future major league talent. However, it’s also to entertain. Within the Royals organization, Omaha is where our players perform best. Once they make it to Kansas City, something happens and they are all of a sudden not the player that we thought they were. What’s worse, if they are that good of a player, the Kansas City Royals are often considered the minor league team for MLB’s big spenders. Good players pack their bags and move on to better things. Mediocre players spend their careers being mediocre in Kansas City or driving back and forth to Omaha.

It’s a Jeckyl & Hyde situation for the Royals. In Omaha, they are world beaters. In Kansas City, they are beaten by the world. (See: Kila Ka’aihue)

So, my proposition is to turn things on their head and just try to win as many games in Omaha as possible. Even Ned Yost said earlier this week that they weren’t going to pull any players up to Kansas City until after the AAA Playoffs are over. “We don’t want to take away from their chances of winning.”

So why do we ever? Why don’t we beef up their roster instead? That way, the Royals could be a roster filled with experienced, underachieving, aging Major League players, and the Storm Chasers could be filled with our best and brightest talent. Make Omaha the goal, not Kansas City. Leave them there in AAA, let them win championships year after year, and pay them accordingly. It would take a change in philosophy, some understanding by all involved, but I think that it would ultimately be embraced by the fans and the players.

What you would avoid is the annual frustration that we experience here in Kansas City. Instead, in the Storm Chasers, you have a team that is currently plowing their way through the 2012 Season. They are the defending Pacific Coast League Champions. They’ve got the second-best record in the entire PCL and are just two games behind Sacramento for that mark. With just four games to go before the playoffs begin, they are 82-58. 24 games over .500 and Back to Back American Northern Division Champions.

That kind of success is unfathomable here in Kansas City. Instead, we’re questioning Jeff Francoeur’s existence, complaining about the price of parking, and counting the number of fans at the K each night. In Omaha, they’re playing in front of sell-out crowds in a new stadium, prepping for a “Blue Out” for the first two games of the playoffs, and headlining the All-PCL team. They’re finishing with their third straight winning record. Manager Mike Jirschele is in his 10th straight season at the helm. He’s secure in his job and surely would never want to manage the Royals. The players need to follow his lead.

And all of this success comes without their best stars from recent years.

I’m talking first of all about Moustakas and Hosmer. These are two guys who could do no wrong in Omaha. They have shown flashes of brilliance over just about two seasons in Kansas City, but it’s nothing compared to how good they were at AAA. So why not send them back? Think about how stacked that team would be with just those two guys added to the roster. Mike Moustakas hit .290 with a .531 slugging percentage in parts of two seasons in Omaha. In 107 games, he hit 25 HR & drove in 92 runs. With his improved defense over the past couple of seasons, he’d enable Wil Myers to go back to playing the outfield where he belongs. And, on that note, the stress & wondering that Myers is going through right now over when he’d be called up to KC would immediately dissipate. He would be right where he needed and wanted to be.

For Eric Hosmer, he played just 26 games in Omaha, but hit .439. He’s hitting .241 in Kansas City this year.

Keep going down the list. Guys like Salvador Perez and Billy Butler had great experiences in Omaha. Let’s get them back there so the Storm Chasers can dominate. What’s so great about keeping them in Kansas City? Their greatest hope is that they might be selected for an All-Star Game (one guy per year) or that they might be able to hit over .500. Wouldn’t playing for a Pacific Coast League Championship on a yearly basis be more exhilirating?

Ned Yost thinks so. He said earlier this week that, “winning a championship is probably a greater experience than coming up here and playing in the big leagues.”

I could not agree more.

Nate Adcock took the loss, as he allowed those six runs on seven hits in just the 2nd inning. After that, he only allowed two hits.

Jake Odorizzi was named the Pacific Coast League’s Player of the Week. Infielder Christian Colon, who fouled a ball off his face after a promotion to Triple-A, will miss the rest of the season.

NW Arkansas scored a run in the first inning, but went on to lose to Frisco, 6-1. Mike Montgomery was in trouble in every inning but the third, and lasted just five innings. The five walks and a three-run homerun did him in.

In the loss, Paulo Orlando went 3-for-4.

Blue Rocks first baseman Matt Fields

With big league GM Dayton Moore in attendance in Frederick, Wilmington lost both games of their doubleheader. Their lead in the Northern Division in the Carolina League dropped to just a 1/2 game. The games got started late, as rain pushed back the start time by about an hour.

Game 1 was picked up in the 3rd inning, as it was suspended from a July game in Wilmington (in which Dylan Bundy started). Anyway, it was a back-and-forth affair late and the Blue Rocks had a chance in the bottom of the 9th inning. With a run in, a runner on first base, and just one out, Angel Franco grounded into a game-ending double play.

Matt Fields went 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored.

Game 2 was so much worse. The long ball once again came back to haunt Blue Rocks starter Jason Adam. The Keys scored five runs in the first inning as Adam allowed back-to-back homeruns, one was a three-run shot. He was in-and-out of trouble throughout his five innings of work.

Shortstop Orlando Calixte was hit by a pitch in the 4th inning and immediately was replaced.

Brooks Pounders was named the Carolina League’s Pitcher of the Week.

Kane County was the only KC Royals affiliate to win on Monday night, as they defeated Burlington, 5-4. Down 3-1 heading into the top of the 8th inning, the Cougars scored four runs and held on. Chris Elder hit a grand slam, just his second homerun of the season (first with the Cougars).

Alex Llanos and Tim Ferguson each collected two hits in the win. Angel Baez made the start and allowed an unearned run over five innings of work. He gave up four hits and three walks, but struck out six.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-5 with a solo homerun in Burlington’s 5-4 win in 12 innings. The second game of their doubleheader was postponed. He reached on a fielding error in the 12th inning and scored the winning run.

The Royals’ Patrick Conroy was named the Appalachian League’s Pitcher of the Week.

Burlington

Mark Threlkheld has cracked the top ten in hitting in the Appy League (tenth) with a .294 batting average. He has 33 RBIs, which ranks him ninth (in a tie). He went 6-for-23 (.261) with five runs scored and four RBIs. Patrick Leonard is tied for second in the Appy League in RBIs with 42 and dropped to second place in homeruns with 13 (he hit just one last week). He did hit .333 (8-for-24) last week. Fred Ford is third with 12 homeruns (one of his three hits last week).

It was another tough week for prospect Bubba Starling. He went 4-for-23 (.174) with 12 strikeouts.

Daniel Hernandez is ninth in the Appy League in ERA (3.64) and he leads the Royals in innings pitched (59.1 innings). He’s been getting roughed up a bit as of late. Last week, he allowed six runs on 11 hits over two starts (12.2 innings). The strikeout to walk ratio still continues to be great (13 to 2 last week). Yender Caramo is right behind Hernandez in innings pitched (59). Last week, he made one start and allowed just one run over six innings. He did allow nine hits, but did not walk a batter while striking out four.

Reliever Daniel Stumpf has been dominant throughout the 2012 season for the Royals. It was no different in his two appearances last week. Over four innings, he allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out four.

Idaho Falls went 3-4 last week. The Chukars are tied for second place in the South Division of the Pioneer League at 11-10. They also return home for a nine-game homestand (around an off day). Of the Chukars losses last week, only one was by more than three runs.

The top offensive performers for the Chukars have cooled off a bit. Ethan Chapman dropped to .322, as he only played in three games (3-for-11 with four RBIs). Nick DelGuidice dropped his average to .298, as he 4-for-17 with three RBIs. Adalberto Mondesi‘s average dropped to .285 after going just 4-for-26 with 13 strikeouts.

The one positive on offense for the Chukars last week was third baseman Diego Goris. He went 7-for-20 (.350) with seven runs scored and six RBIs.

Check out MiLB’s feature on 2012 second round draft pick Sam Selman, who leads the Pioneer League in ERA (1.31) and strikeouts (73). In his one start last week (August 14th), he allowed one run on five hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out 11.

Cory Hall made two relief appearances last week and allowed three hits over 2.1 scoreless innings. He struck out three.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Jake Odorizzi delivers a pitch during the first inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

They also rode the arm of Jake Odorizzi, who improved to 10-2 in Triple-A. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks over seven innings.

If you’re interested in checking out the Storm Chasers celebration on Saturday night, check out Minda Haas’ site Royal Blues for photos.

NW Arkansas lost the first game of their doubleheader in Frisco, 3-0. The Naturals collected just two hits.

Noel Arguelles waited three days to make his next start (after two rainouts). He took the loss, as he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over five innings. He struck out six.

The Naturals also lost the second game, 3-1. They actually out-hit Frisco 6-4, but went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They had a chance to win the game (or at least tie it) in the top of the 7th inning. They had the bases loaded and one run already in, but Carlo Testa grounded out to end the game.

Whit Merrifield went 2-for-4 with a triple. Justin Marks took the loss, as he allowed all three runs on four hits and a walk over four innings.

Wilmington couldn’t complete the sweep over Lynchburg, as they lost 3-2. The Blue Rocks scored both of their runs in the first inning. Three of their four hits came in that first inning.

With the game tied at 2-2 in the top of the 9th inning, Braeden Schlehuber reached on a fielding error in center field and moved all the way to third base. He came around to score when the Blue Rocks middle infielders tried to turn a double play (but couldn’t).

The Blue Rocks had the tying run on third base with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, but Murray Watts flied out to end the game (he ended up 2-for-4).

The Wilmington loss dropped them to just 2.5 games ahead of both the Hillcats and Frederick. The Blue Rocks now head to Frederick for five games and then to Lynchburg for three more games.

Kane County led 4-3 heading into the 8th inning, but lost 7-4 in Burlington. The Bees scored four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning aided by three singles, three walks, and a wild pitch.

Alex Llanos went 3-for-4 and Chris Elder went 2-for-4 with two RBIs in the loss.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-4 loss in Greenville.

Tonight, superfans collide, as the Baltimore Orioles version of a superfan will be a guest via Skype on the Royalman Report. Tune in to see what happens when Carne Cabeza aka the LuchadOriole (aka Neal Moorhouse) joins the show as a guest. Will he be friend or foe? Will team alliances create conflict or will the two find common costumed ground? Tune in to the Royalman Report – same Royalman time, same Royalman channel!

Also, the Royals managed to win a few games, going 5-1 on the homestand and Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter. It’s been a pretty good August, so maybe there’s some good feeling still to be had.

Finally, we’ll have an announcement about the future status of the podcast.

The chat room and livestream broadcast will be below for you to chime in and interact with us in the studio as well as fellow listeners:

The Royalman Report is brought to you by Kelly’s Westport Inn at 500 Westport Road in Kansas City, Missouri.  Tell them the Royalman Report sent you.

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Blue Rocks shortstop Orlando Calixte

Saturday night’s Wilmington Blue Rocks game was considered boring for the first eight innings. Well, boring for those who do not like pitcher’s duels. It got exciting quick in the bottom of the 9th inning when Cheslor Cuthbert led off the inning with a single off Lynchburg reliever Juan Jamie. He moved to second base on a wild pitch and Nick Van Stratten moved him to third base on a ground out. Van Stratten had squared to bunt but pulled back and slapped it up the middle.

The Hillcats elected to intentionally walk the next two batters to load the bases with one out. Luis Piterson hit into a force out (the out came at the plate), which brought up shortstop Orlando Calixte with two outs and the bases loaded.

The 2-2 pitch was VERY close. So close that the entire Lynchburg infield began exiting the field. The catcher triple-clutched his throw because he couldn’t believe the home plate umpire did not call the pitch a strike.

Anyway, with new life and a 3-2 pitch, Calixte took the fastball into left field, just out of reach of the diving left fielder for the game winner. While the Blue Rocks were celebrating and chasing Calixte around the field, the Hillcats coaching staff was going nuts at the umpire. I don’t blame them and I’m pretty sure any other coaching staff in baseball would have been freaking out (the pitch looked that good).

After the game, Calixte talked (through interpreter Angel Franco, the Blue Rocks utility fielder) about the game winning hit, facing a pitcher who throws so hard, how many game winning hits he has had in his career, and how he took that 2-2 pitch. He, like Pounders, was also pied in the face during the interview, but kept on going. Pounders was kind enough to wipe some of the shaving cream out of his face.

Following all the shaving cream pies, Blue Rocks manager Vance Wilson wanted to make sure he was facing the hallway just in case a pie was coming his way. He talked about the throws by Brett Eibner, the start from Pounders, his bullpen duo of Chase Boruff and Robinson Yambati, the defensive abilities of Lynchburg shortstop Nick Ahmed, and how well his team is finally playing with the playoffs about two weeks away.

Jul 17, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Ryan Verdugo (62) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Omaha returned home and beat Nashville, 5-3. The Storm Chasers also clinched the American Northern Division of the Pacific Coast League.

Ryan Verdugo was solid yet again, as he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Anthony Seratelli went 4-for-4 in the win. Rey Navarro made his Triple-A debut at second base and went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base.

NW Arkansas was postponed for the second straight night. They will make up Saturday night’s game as part of a doubleheader on Sunday in Frisco.

The game of night in the KC Royals farm system was in Wilmington, as they walked off 1-0 winners over Lynchburg. They increased their lead to 3.5 games in the Northern Division of the Carolina League in the second half.

It was a well-pitched game between Brooks Pounders of Wilmington and Dimasther Delgado of Lynchburg. Pounders lasted seven innings for the second straight start and allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out seven. When he did get into trouble, he was bailed out by two GREAT throws from centerfielder Brett Eibner to end back-to-back innings. Delgado allowed just four hits and a walk over six innings.

It came down to the bottom of the 9th inning with hard-throwing Juan Jamie on the mound for the Hillcats. With the bases loaded and two outs, shortstop Orlando Calixte came to the plate. With a 3-2 count, he ripped the fastball just out of the reach of the diving Dan Brewer in left field and the Blue Rocks began celebrating and chasing Calixte all over the field.

Pounders talked after the game about his back-to-back great starts, the throws from Eibner, and his pickoff move. He was then pied in the face to end the interview by catcher Juan Graterol.

Kane County pounded out 14 hits and beat Burlington, 7-3. Five different Cougars had multi-hit games. Only one of those hits went for extra bases.

Kyle Smith picked up his fourth win, as he allowed an unearned run on three hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out nine. Cody Fassold followed with 2.2 perfect innings of relief. He struck out five.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Burlington’s 2-0 loss at Greenville.

Judy Johnson is a Hall of Famer and the namesake of the field at Frawley Stadium. His statue stands outside the ballpark. He was a key member to some of the best teams in Negro League history. You can find out more about Johnson HERE .

The thing that disappoints me is that they have dropped the ball over the years with honoring the Negro Leagues in Wilmington (just like they have in Kansas City). Back in the day, both teams used to wear Negro League uniforms (I am a sucker for old school uniforms). Then their game worn hats would be auctioned off to support the Negro Leagues. They do have auctions going on throughout the concourse of autographed memorabilia tonight (which are drawing some crowds).

This year is no different. It is also Star Wars Night, with Star Wars characters set to be in attendance. It seems as if the promotional team is more interested in pushing that than the history of the Negro Leagues and Judy Johnson.

Anyway, to the game (and enough of my rambling).

First half Northern Division champion Lynchburg (the High-A affiliate of the Atlanta Braves) is in town and the Hillcats are 2.5 games back of the Blue Rocks in the second half standings. The Blue Rocks have taken the first two games of the four-game series, as the pitchers have allowed just two runs to the Hillcats. In Game 1, the Blue Rocks won 2-1 and walked off on a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the 10^th inning. In Game 2, the Blue Rocks scored ten runs in the bottom of the 2^nd inning and rode the arm of Matt Ridings to another victory.

Taking the mound for the Blue Rocks tonight is Brooks Pounders, who the Royals acquired this past offseason from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the fact that Pounders has been with Wilmington since June, this will be the first time I will be seeing him pitch. With the Blue Rocks, he is 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 13 games (12 starts). He has allowed more hits (74) than innings pitched (63.1). His last start at Potomac was a great one: 7IP, 4H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K.

The Hillcats will be sending Dimasther Delgado to the mound. Overall he is 6-6 with a 4.35 ERA in 20 starts. He, like Pounders, allows more hits than innings pitched (125 hits in 107.2 innings). Delgado faced the Blue Rocks in back-to-back-starts (June 29 and July 5) and allowed three runs in each game.

Lineups:

HILLCATS: Mycal Jones (CF), Nick Ahmed (SS), Dan Brewer (LF), Chris Garcia (1B), Edward Salcedo (3B), Adam Milligan (RF), David Rohm (DH), Emerson Landoni (2B), and Chad Comer (C).

BLUE ROCKS: Orlando Calixte (SS), Brett Eibner (CF), Lane Adams (RF), Matt Fields (1B), Cheslor Cuthbert (3B), Nick Van Stratten (DH), Geulin Beltre (LF), Juan Graterol (C), and Luis Piterson (2B).

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August 16, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Chris Getz (17) gets the force out on Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (not pictured) at second base and throws to first for a double play in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Getz was having his best year as a big leaguer in 2012, despite two previous trips to the disabled list during the season. His season ends with his batting average, slugging percentage and OPS all being career highs and, had he been healthy most of the year, would have likely been able to reach career highs in hits and doubles.

Instead, it’s cut short.

There hasn’t been a move to replace Getz on the roster yet, but all signs point to Johnny Giavotella replacing him. Giavotella was hitting .323/.404/.472 in Omaha. After the Royals announced that Getz would miss the rest of the year, Giavotella was pulled from Omaha’s lineup against Las Vegas. Earlier this season, Giavotella  spent a month with Kansas City and hit .217/.260/.261.

The Getz versus Giavotella debate has worn on all season, going back to spring training. Giavotella didn’t take advantage of the first opportunity to win the job and went to Omaha to continue to work on his defense. He was also working back from offseason hip surgery and as the months have gotten warmer, so has his bat. With Getz performing adequately at the plate and displaying good defense, the Royals hadn’t been compelled to make a change.

Since being drafted in the second round in 2008, Giavotella has drawn questions about his defense. Despite extensive work in Triple A, he’s probably only going to be average at his very best at the position. The Royals will accept that if he hits. Despite hitting everything in the minors, he hasn’t been able to translate it to major league success and the Royals have seemed timid about giving him an opportunity to sink or swim. If he hits like many scouts think he can, he’ll be a good offensive weapon in the lineup and should balance out any problems with the glove. If he doesn’t hit, the next man in line is Christian Colon, who was recently promoted to Omaha and got seven hits in his first 17 at bats, including a double and a homer. He recently fouled a ball that hit the ground and then hit him in the eye, so he’s currently on the DL.

I see it playing out with Giavotella getting the rest of this year to see if he can hit big league pitching. If not, we may see more of the Getz/Giavotella merry-go-round while Colon spends some time in Omaha waiting to step in (assuming the Royals don’t involve Giavotella or Colon in a deal this offseason).

Veteran Doug Davis courtesy of Minda Haas (Royal Blues)

It was a matchup of Doug Davis against former Storm Chaser Sean O’Sullivan and O’Sullivan won the battle. Davis allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out eight, but allowed two solo homeruns. O’Sullivan allowed just one run on four hits and three walks over seven innings while striking out six.

The Storm Chasers lone run came via Mitch Maier‘s 4th inning solo homerun. Anthony Seratelli went 2-for-3 in the loss. In case you were wondering, Johnny Giavotella did not play.

NW Arkansas‘ game in Midland was postponed due to bad weather. However, the Naturals were eliminated from the postseason, as Springfield beat San Antonio.

Where did all of Wilmington‘s offense suddenly come from (and where has it been all season)? They scored ten runs in the 2nd inning and cruised to an 11-1 victory over Lynchburg. The Blue Rocks hold a 2.5 game lead over the Hillcats for the second half Northern Division title (the Hillcats won the first half).

The Blue Rocks collected 12 hits, but just three doubles, so they singled the Hillcats to death and capitalized on three Hillcats errors. Five Blue Rocks hitters had multi-hit games.

Matt Ridings was the beneficiary of all that offense, though he didn’t need a whole lot. He allowed an unearned run on three hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out seven.

Kane County and Clinton took their scoreless duel into the 10th inning when the LumberKings scored two runs. The Cougars got a run in the bottom of the 10th inning on Justin Trapp‘s solo homerun (he went 3-for-5). However they could not complete the comeback and lost 2-1.

Remember Tim Melville? He started for the Cougars in his return from the DL (where he has spent most of the season) and allowed just one hit and two walks over four innings. He struck out four. Andrew Triggs followed with four perfect innings of relief with four strikeouts.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts in Burlington’s 5-1 loss to Greenville. Playing shortstop for the Astros (in just his sixth game), the top pick in this past June’s draft, Carlos Correa, went 2-for-4 with a homerun.

We also spoke with former KC A’s First Baseman and six time All-Star Jim Gentile about his time with Kansas City, being a member of the Orioles Hall of Fame and the famed summer of 1961, when he went toe to toe with Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

The Nationals were 69-93 in 2010. They were 80-81 last year. Today, they have the best record in the big leagues and, not coincidentally, their starting pitching has given up the least amount of runs in the league. Similarly, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Pittsburgh are all in the top ten among starting rotations in runs allowed per game and are in the playoff hunt.

The Royals scored more runs in 2000 than any other Royals team in franchise history. Their 879 runs scored eclipsed the old record of 856 runs set in – wouldn’t you know it?  - 1999. In those two seasons, they scored 1735 runs. They won 141 games and lost 192. The offense was around the top third in all of baseball, but the pitching staffs gave up the second most runs in the majors in 1999 and the third most in 2000. A strong offense can’t erase awful pitching.

Now, the Royals find themselves with a lineup that feels like it should be able to produce runs over the long-term (or at least, that’s what the scouts say), but the key to success will be pitching, specifically starting pitching.

That’s as true today as it was on the last day of the season in 2011 as it was on the first day that pitchers and catchers reported. The Royals entered 2012 needing pitching and in the middle of August, they still need starting pitching. Injuries have hurt. If all goes well with recovery, they should see Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino return next July or so, but their contributions may only have an impact if he Royals can manage to piece together some winning months prior to the duo’s return.

The team’s relative inactivity in the offseason to add significant depth to a potential rotation gives me pause about hoping for significant upgrades in the rotation, although some may be on the Royals radar this winter. The Royals ideal situation is to develop pitching via the farm system as the Rays have done with James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson et al; like the Nationals have done with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler. Hopefully, the Royals go after some of the arms available in free agency or through trade because, in the meantime, while there are a number of strong performances in the minor leagues by pitchers who compose what could be the next wave of talent, most aren’t ready to make the jump yet.

Jake Odorizzi has a rotation spot waiting for him in KC. (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Jake Odorizzi has performed well since his promotion to Omaha, allaying concerns that he might struggle early in a tougher league. Last year, he’d racked up 108 strikeouts in 78.1 innings for Wilmington, but became homer-prone in the Texas League and ended his 12 start stint in Northwest Arkansas with a 4.72 ERA. He started his 2012 season back in Double A, put in seven good starts and earned a promotion.

Since then, he’s been putting up good numbers in Omaha, capped off by an outing on Tuesday where he went 6.2 innings before allowing a hit. In 89.1 innings in Triple A, he’s got a 2.92 ERA (though his walk rate is up and he’s giving up more hits, so there could be some good fortune in that ERA). He’s a flyball pitcher, so it will likely make him home run prone once he gets to the big leagues, but he can miss enough bats and should have pretty good control to allow him to limit damage. He projects as a number three starter with some upside and should get to Kansas City in September for a couple appearances.

Another prospect to dream on is John Lamb, who has finally made it back to the mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June and in the process of maintaining his conditioning, aggravated a tendon in his ankle and had to hold off on game action.

On Tuesday, he started for the Arizona Royals in Surprise, throwing a scoreless inning and striking out two. A batter reached on an error, but Lamb gave up no hits or walks.

The Royals will probably be very patient with him for the rest of this season, just getting him worked back into game speed. I think we’d all like to see him make a start at each level until he got back to Double A, but I think he’ll work within the rookie levels, then into instructional leagues. J.J. Picollo said on a recent Royals TV broadcast that they’re looking for Lamb to start in Double A next year and be on the fast track. Lamb’s got a good shot to make that happen – he’s been touted for his temperament before even being drafted, and has come back from significant injury before. He might see Kansas City late in 2013, possibly on a similar path as Odorizzi has been on this year of a few starts for the Naturals, a long stint in Omaha and then Kansas City in late August or as a September callup.

Yordano Ventura

Yordano Ventura is another guy to keep an eye on. He’s possibly got the most upside of any starter in the system, but those types usually have some risk. In his case, the Royals are probably going to have to resist the urge to turn him into a reliever if he encounters any bumps in the road. He’s small (listed at 5’11″ 140 pounds, though he looks like he’s filled out since) and the perception is that smaller pitchers are fragile or can’t hold up to the rigors of 200 inning seasons.

That being the case, he has the potential to be a high strikeout pitcher if he starts, has shown decent control, and has the type of stuff that misses bats. He can hurl a fastball into the triple digits, his curveball is developing into a solid secondary pitch and his changeup could be more than adequate. He’s currently on the disabled list in Double A with carpal tunnel symptoms in his wrist, but should finish the year there, start back there next year and hit Omaha in the summer months.

Of course, Kyle Zimmer should be in this discussion. The Royals first rounder in 2012 is only 20 years old coming out of college and has already started to shine in Low A Kane County’s rotation. He’s made eight pro starts, building up 33.2 innings, striking out 39 batters and walking just seven. He’s also been getting a decent amount of grounders in his short pro career. Strikeouts plus low walk totals plus groundball tendencies are great components for a future star to have. He’s had one rough start of those eight, but all of his others have been dominant. He’ll start next year at High A Wilmington and might be up in mid-2014 if he keeps rolling.

One pitcher who needs a new challenge is Sam Selman. The lefty from Vanderbilt has been destroying the Pioneer League and will hopefully get a shot at a higher level to see how his dominance continues. He’s striking out 13.9 batters per nine innings at Idaho Falls.

Kyle Smith struck out 11 batters in five innings in his first pro start for Idaho Falls and was moved to Kane Country afterwards. He’s continued to perform well there, making nine starts and striking out 58 batters in 45.2 innings. He has nearly a 5/1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He’ll turn 20 next month and isn’t the big, tall pitcher the Royals usually go for as a starter, but he deserves a look as he moves up the minor league ladder. His best start came two weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings, gave up just three hits and struck out 12 while walking none against Cedar Rapids. More of that, please.

Jason Adam

Another good arm in the system is Jason Adam. He started the season off well for Wilmington, hit some rough patches in May and June, but has righted the ship and is pitching well. His 5-11 record is deceiving, as he’s hardly gotten any run support in most of his starts, best demonstrated by a May 19 start when he went six innings, struck out seven and gave up two runs, and the Blue Rocks got no-hit. He’s surpassed seven innings in six starts to lead Wilmington and has a good share of 6+ IP starts as well.

As a result, he’s probably thrown too many innings to get anything more than a courtesy start in Double A. At 141 innings this year, he might be shut down soon. He’s a strong candidate to start the year in Double A next year after demonstrating enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9) and prevent walks (2 BB/9) this year while also inducing his share of ground balls. He has good stuff, but it’s not dominating, though he’s been adding velocity recently. He’s hit the mid-90s with his fastball before, and if he can build up to that level, it gives him more upside. He’s another guy who scouts suggest could be a #3 starter down the line.

Unfortunately, for the moment, this is all just dreaming on these guys, because Odorizzi’s the closest to the big leagues and won’t have much time in the big leagues if at all by next spring and it may keep him from making the team out of Surprise. Lamb and Ventura will probably hit Triple A next year, but among Zimmer, Adam, Selman and Smith, there’s not a single pitch at the Double A level yet. That puts them some ways away from the big leagues.

Ideally, the Royals will be able to add these arms to the mix in the future. They won’t have much impact next season so if the Royals are to build up their rotation (which they need to do), they’ll have to go after those free agent targets. They may have to put one of these arms into a trade to get a better return on a starter with another team. The Royals want to bring their star starters up from the minor leagues and have a homegrown staff, and that’s commendable, but for the moment, unless Mike Montgomery (5.71 ERA in 41 innings after his demotion to Double A) or Chris Dwyer (6.21 ERA in Omaha) figure things out – sooner rather than later – the homegrown pipeline of pitching talent will remain a pipe dream.

The top of Omaha’s order, Falu and Anthony Seratelli, went a combined 5-for-12 with three RBIs. Derrick Robinson went 3-for-5 with three runs scored in the win.

NW Arkansas was battered in Midland, 13-3. The RockHounds led 11-0 after three innings. JC Sulbaran, who the KC Royals received from Cincinnati for Jonathan Broxton, continues to struggle with his new team (3IP, 9H, 11R, 5BB, 3K, 3HR). His ERA climbed to 10.64.

The bright spot for the Naturals was the relief outing from Ryan Dennick. He pitched four shutout innings and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out five.

The Naturals scored three runs, but only picked up five hits, two from Paulo Orlando.

Blue Rocks reliever Nick Rogers

Wilmington and Lynchburg were locked in a pitcher’s duel and carried it into extra innings. The Blue Rocks came out victorious in ten innings, 2-1. They walked off on a bases loaded walk (the third walk of the inning).

Andy Ferguson started for the Blue Rocks and allowed just one run (on a 6th inning solo homerun) over six innings. He allowed four hits and two walks while striking out nine. Nick Rogers, who seems to have rebounded from his struggles over the last two months, pitched three scoreless innings of relief (just one hit and one walk while striking out five).

Kane County beat Clinton, 5-3. 2012 first round draft pick Kyle Zimmer pitched another gem for the Cougars. He allowed two unearned runs on seven hits and two walks over seven innings. He struck out three. Zimmer also picked a runner off second base.

On offense, Jack Lopez went 2-for-3 and Michael Antonio scored two runs and drove in two runs in the win.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a run scored and two strikeouts in Burlington’s late inning loss to Princeton. He also threw a runner out at the plate.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s first guest is “Diamond” Jim Gentile, a former All-Star and runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 1960 and an MVP candidate in the 1960s. He played in Kansas City with the Athletics in 1964 and 1965 after strong years with the Orioles.

We’ll also talk with Randy Herr, longtime Kansas City baseball fan and father of co-host Jeff Herr.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Cabrera was having a great season, challenging for the batting title while being a key part of the Giants offense, being selected to start the All-Star Game, and winning the exhibition’s MVP award. This followed up on a breakout year in 2011 when Melky turned an opportunity with the Royals into a career year, registering 200 hits, one of just five batters to do so.

Now, much of that is called into question.

Nobody knows when Cabrera may have started using an illegal substance. It certainly could have been one time and he happened to get caught. There will be suspicions though. Cabrera came into 2011 having lost a lot of weight and performed better than ever after a career of mostly mediocre to average seasons. Until other information comes out, I’m going on the assumption that he used one time, perhaps to continue the strong performance he’d happened upon in 2011.

August 31, 2011; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Melky Cabrera (53) in the dugout during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

That’s not going to stop the questions, though. Cabrera had never had a season with an OPS above .752 in a season. He’d never surpassed 30 doubles until 2011. He had more than 50 additional hits than his next highest season. That sudden spike in performance won’t go unnoticed by those who want to point fingers. For the sake of giving someone the benefit of the doubt, I hope there’s only smoke and no fire, but I wasn’t the only one who thought his performance was a fluke most of last year (and at a certain point, I just had to accept what was happening despite my previous skepticism).

It’s unfortunate. Cabrera seemed to be a fit in the Royals clubhouse last year and fans took to him in San Francisco.

But he broke the rules.

The Royals traded Cabrera in the offseason for Jonathan Sanchez and while it looks like an awful trade today, at the time it was reasonable for both sides. Few expected Cabrera to maintain his success much less improve upon it, and Sanchez had shown potential in the past. It ended up going as badly as possible for the Royals with Cabrera’s big year, Sanchez’s awful season, and is only somewhat improved by getting good performances from Jeremy Guthrie after the Rockies took Sanchez off the Royals hands.

Some have said that this indicates that the Royals “won” the trade since Cabrera is out for the rest of the regular season.

They didn’t get any of Cabrera’s 159 hits in 2012 and the suspension sure doesn’t take away Sanchez’s stinkbomb starts. There turns out to be no winner in this deal and the Royals are fortunate to have gotten any kind of return to salvage anything after such poor results.

These situations tarnish the game and the accomplishments of the players involved. Last year, the Royals outfield performed as well as any in baseball history at the plate. It was one of few high points in another losing season. Now there’s a question mark over it. Still, no matter how disappointing it is to any 2011 Royals marks, it’s more disappointing to Giants fans and teammates, who are fighting for a playoff spot and now lost a key producer for a third of the year for something he may not have even needed to do.

Nate Adcock started for the Storm Chasers and left in the 8th inning with a runner on second base and one out. Vin Mazzaro entered and allowed the runner to score (and took the loss).

On offense, the Storm Chasers only had five hits, with Max Ramirez picking up two hits. He also drove in both runs.

Christian Colon was placed on the DL due to an eye injury. He spent a good chunk of his season in Double-A on the DL already. You can find out more HERE (the bottom of the article).

Clinging to a 4-2 lead, Midland scored five runs in the bottom of the 6th inning to defeat NW Arkansas, 7-5. The Naturals made it interesting in the top of the 9th inning, by scoring a run and putting runners on first and second base with just one out. However Whit Merrifield and Brian Fletcher struck out to end the game.

Yem Prades went 3-for-5 in the leadoff spot and Paulo Orlando went 2-for-4 in the loss.

Jason Adam

It was the Adam & Adams show for Wilmington on Wednesday night, as they beat Potomac, 9-1. Lets start with outfielder Lane Adams. He drove in the Blue Rocks’ first run in the top of the first inning and came around to score another in that seven-run inning. In the end, he went 3-for-5.

Jason Adam made another dominant start for the Blue Rocks, as he pitched six shutout innings. He allowed four hits and struck out five. He didn’t allow a hit until the 3rd inning and only had multiple base runners in one inning (the fourth, but with two outs).

Clinton scored all ten of their runs from the fourth to the sixth innings to beat Kane County, 10-4. This was after the Cougars had a 3-0 lead.

Every starter for the Cougars, except Justin Trapp had at least one hit. Alex Llanos went 2-for-4. Chris Elder, who has been on the move all season, went 3-for-4 with two doubles and three RBIs.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored in Burlington’s 2-0 win over Princeton. Each team collected just three hits.

As bad as a situation like this may be, what would you think about this individual if he had made almost the same exact mistake previously, and learned absolutely nothing from the experience?  You might say he was a mad lunatic, hell-bent on self destruction.  You might think he was a subversive implant on a mission to destroy.  You might say his name is Dayton Moore.

Let me take you back a few years to explain how we got to Dayton Moore’s last stand.  No doubt you are aware that Dayton Moore spent the first several years of his administrative baseball career with the Atlanta Braves.  After becoming the Royals General Manager in 2006, he made three trades with his former organization within about a year, sending a couple of guys you never heard of plus Octavio Dotel to the Braves in exchange for another guy you never heard of plus Tony Pena, Jr. and “dum, dum, DUMMMM!” (that’s my weak attempt at ominous movie mood music), Kyle Davies.

You remember Kyle Davies, right?  He’s the guy that many believe is possibly the worst starting pitcher in the history of the major leagues, by a long shot.  And what normally happens when a team brings up a pitcher who goes down in flames on the mound?  If he’s had success in the minors, as Davies did, they’ll probably give him a few chances, several more starts to get accustomed to the speed and talent level in the majors.  If he still isn’t successful, the player will soon be demoted back to AAA or released.  But that’s not what happened with Kyle.

In 2007, Davies came to the Royals in mid-season, pitched 50 innings and posted a 6.66 era.  Let that soak in for a moment – a 6.66 era.  To put that in perspective, the Royals current embarrassing group of starting pitchers all have era’s of 5.50 or less.

What do you think was the result of Davies near historically poor performance in 2007?  Was he chased out of Kauffman and demoted to Omaha?  Was he placed on the waiver wire?  No, he was shockingly rewarded with another season in the Royals rotation.  And another.  And another.  And another, until July 2011 when the Royals finally gave Kyle and his 5.59 lifetime era his walking papers.  And by the way, Luke Hochevar’s lifetime era is 5.29 – don’t get me started.  That will need to be the subject of a future story.

Do you remember how Dayton Moore was mercilessly vilified for his decision to keep running Kyle Davies out to the mound year, after year, after year?  Kyle had only one somewhat promising season in 2008 when he threw for a 4.06 era, and Dayton rode that train of possibility all the way to the end of the line and beyond.  There really is no explanation for the blinders DM wore when reviewing Davies unless you believe he simply could not admit he had made a mistake.  He was like the man who keeps doubling down at the roulette wheel thinking the odds have to land in his favor eventually.

Dayton Moore will need to make a decision soon about Jeff Francoeur (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

History appears to be repeating itself with Jeff Francoeur.  If you don’t know this already, Frenchy is another product of the Atlanta Braves system that DM is so fond of.  I think Moore believes so strongly that the Braves talent evaluation process is infallible that he refuses to give up on any product of their system until his reluctance to do the right thing drives the Royals fan base to the brink of insanity.

Jeff Francoeur was a first round pick of the Braves in 2002.  He was relatively successful in the minor leagues, although he never lit the world on fire anywhere he went.  He eventually received a call-up to the majors in 2005, as all first round picks eventually do, whether they deserve it or not.

Francoeur has shown flashes of promise, particularly in his 2007 season when he batted .293 with 105 RBIs.   However, “flash” is a particularly accurate description of Frenchy’s talent.  For example, during a couple of his full seasons in the majors, he has batted .239 in 2008, .249 in 2010, and he strikes out a whopping 118 times per year.  Aside from the fact that he may have the greatest outfield arm of our generation, there is very little to like about Francoeur’s performance.  Yes he has a great attitude, yes he is a clubhouse leader, yes he purchases pizza for the fans in the bleachers, yes he had one respectable recent season in a Royals uniform, yada, yada, yada…  But you know what?  That simply isn’t good enough.

Wil Myers will eventually be the Royals right fielder. Well, someday, right? (Credit: Mindy Haas)

I am sick and dang tired of the Royals settling for mediocrity.  If a player isn’t cutting it, then trade him, demote him, or DFA him – I don’t care what you do and I don’t care how much money you’re paying him, just get him off the field.  Particularly when he’s blocking the path of a young stud like Wil Myers.  I know Wil has struggled since the All Star break, but you might struggle too if you had put up super-human numbers, led the minor leagues in home runs and done everything expected of you to receive your call-up, and then the promotion never came because Dayton Moore’s favorite son inexplicably continues to play every day.

Once upon a time, Dayton Moore made a stand with Kyle Davies.  I don’t think any of us truly understand why he did it, or why he didn’t learn anything from the experience.  It appears that he is making another stand now with Jeff Francoeur.  Except this time, based on the teams’ underwhelming performance and lack of any real direction or focus, it could be Dayton Moore’s last stand.

Jake Odorizzi (Photo Credit: Minda Haas)

Omaha beat Las Vegas in the first game of their four-game series, 7-0. The Storm Chasers had two 3-run innings to go along with a no-hitter watch from Jake Odorizzi. He carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning before a walk and a Jack Cust single with two outs broke it up. Overall, Odorizzi allowed that one hit and two walks over seven innings. He struck out four. Brandon Sisk got into trouble in the 8th inning (two hits) before inducing an inning-ending double play. He cruised through the ninth 1-2-3.

Every starter for Omaha had at least one hit, except Wil Myers and Derrick Robinson. Irving Falu and Johnny Giavotella each collected two hits, while Max Ramirez went 3-for-4.

Wilmington‘s winning streak came to an end in Potomac with a 7-5 loss. The Blue Rocks held a 5-0 lead heading into the 5th inning when the P-Nats scored two runs off Leondy Perez, and another five more in the 6th inning.

The Blue Rocks couldn’t capitalize on ten hits and six P-Nats errors. It didn’t help that they went just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and struck out 13 times.

*Both NW Arkansas and Kane County had off on Tuesday.

Bubba Watch: Bubba Starling went 1-for-4 with a solo homerun and three strikeouts in Burlington’s 8-2 win over Princeton.

Jeremy Guthrie, dominating. Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

That means that in his last three starts, Guthrie has gone 21 innings, given up just three earned runs and allowed only 18 baserunners while striking out 18.

Not bad for a guy the Royals got for Jonathan Sanchez.

Some fun facts about the game:

• Guthrie has thrown 15 straight shutout innings for the Royals. Sanchez has thrown 11.1 innings total for the Rockies in three starts.
• All eight of Guthrie’s strikeouts tonight came on a swing and a miss.
• After two rough starts as a Royal, Guthrie’s ERA has went from 6.68 to 5.75. He has a 4.02 ERA as a Royal. If you could cherry-pick a couple of innings out of those starts (like the third inning against the Twins and first two against the Mariners – and no, of course you can’t, but let’s dream a little), he could have a 1.58 ERA. I know, I know. That’s cheating.
• Tim Collins struck out the side in the eighth inning. He leads the team in relief appearances with three strikeouts or more with eight now.
• Collins also set a new team record for strikeouts in a season by a left-handed reliever with 77.
• David Holtzman from the Royals pointed out that Collins (5’7″), the shortest pitcher in team history, broke a record set by Andrew Sisco (6’10″) in 2005.
• The Royals pitchers struck out 12 batters, the third time they’ve done so in a nine inning game this season.It’s the ninth time they’d struck out 12 overall.
• By shutting out the A’s tonight, the Royals have more team shutouts (9) than the Washington Nationals (7) who lead the majors in team ERA.
• The Royals team ERA was 25th in the league coming into the night.
• Tonight’s was the fourth shutout thrown by the Royals against the A’s.
• The only wins the Royals have against the A’s have been those shutouts. The Royals haven’t won in the three games in which the A’s have scored against them.

What do these facts mean? Not a lot, but Guthrie has been a welcomed addition to the team, especially considering how bad Sanchez was and that the Royals were ready to dump him for nothing in return. Tim Collins has been a solid piece in the bullpen.

Also it’s fun to get a win behind very good pitching. It’s been too rare this season.