That presents a problem, as there are only so many pitchers capable of producing the kind if impact the Royals (and, yes, those other teams) would hope for. Supply and demand. The supply is low, the demand is high. That being the case, as more teams poke around, the price starts to go up (or at least the asking price). For the Royals, that’s not what they want to hear. We all know that their reputation precedes them – the largest free agent contract they’ve handed out was to Gil Meche before the 2007 season for $55 million and five years.

Two big targets are Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Greinke, as we know, can lead a rotation and, after Cole Hamels and Matt Cain signed extensions, is the big fish in the pond this winter.

Sep 20, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starter Zack Greinke (23) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

And reports say that he’s looking for a six year deal. For a former Cy Young Award winner with no hint of an injury history  and only 29 years old, that’s a great deal to look for. The Royals (and any other team) would be lucky to have him.

This is the part where you’d hear the record scratch. That six year deal? Greinke wants it to value $150 million.

That is a lot of Chipotle.

It was a long shot that Greinke would return to Kansas City anyway. Almost immediately after the Royals traded him to Milwaukee, fans noticed that he would be a free agent after 2012 and let the possibility trickle into their minds. What a great deal it would be to pick up Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Lorenzo Cain (and the recently traded Jeremy Jeffress) for Greinke, then turn around and re-sign the player they traded away. The best of both worlds!

If the Royals had been more successful in 2012, perhaps Greinke would be more inclined to return. The reason he asked to be traded in the first place was because the team wasn’t improving quickly enough, but success could rekindle that love for Kansas City that caused him to keep his place on the Plaza (of course, he could just be a budding real estate mogul).

At that price? Greinke will not be a Royal.

But Anibal Sanchez. He could be a target. There was injury concern, then some worry that he wouldn’t adjust going from the National League to the American League. A strong run through the latter part of the regular season with Detroit and solid work in the playoffs put him in the spotlight and allayed those fears.

And it drove his pricetag up.

Now, the price seemed at first that it might be modest and achievable for the Royals and really any other team. But scarcity and the shared interest changed that. A $15 million annual salary is all but certain at this point, and Sanchez also wants a long-term commitment. Six years for $90 million.

But there’s a catch. As Jon Heyman reported, that demand may increase to seven years and $100 million for some teams. So maybe he’s willing to play for the Royals, but he may charge a premium. Part of what got the Meche deal done was giving him a fifth year when other teams were only willing to go four. Extra years mean extra money, and it’s also extra risk for the signing team. Sanchez, though, will get paid.

Will that be by the Royals?

I hope so for my sake as a fan. Sanchez is the best free agent who’s remotely attainable for the Royals. But the odds he’ll sign with Kansas City get lower every day as his value continues to rise. I’d love for the Royals to start spending, but until they do, I have to be skeptical that they will cough up the money. Part of that is their own doing and their own approach, but it’s also the market playing out naturally. Both are big obstacles if the Royals are to make a splash in free agency this winter.

We’ve already talked about Anibal Sanchez as the Royals likely top target and the potential availability of Dan Haren. Another name the Royals have been linked to is the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse.

Along with Sanchez, Lohse could be “at the top of [the Royals] list” this winter.

September 18, 2012; St. Louis, MO. USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (26) throws to a Houston Astros batter during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

The latest news is that the Cardinals haven’t offered Lohse anything yet, and, with St. Louis in the playoffs, aren’t likely to take his focus off the action on the field. They’ll have the opportunity to offer him a qualifying offer – estimated to be around $13.3 million for one year – in order to obtain compensation if he signs elsewhere. His current contract paid him $41 million over four years.

The Royals wouldn’t surrender a pick if the Cardinals do make a qualifying offer, so that isn’t a concern. Lohse turned 34 years old almost two weeks ago, so he’s looking for his last big payday. Former GM and XM Radio host Jim Bowden thinks the Royals could be a fit, with some conditions:

KC Royals would be a nice fit for Lohse will be interesting to see if Royals decide to play for him & will commit yrs & $ needed to be in it

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) October 15, 2012

Translation: the Royals may have to overpay for Lohse’s services.

Caution Advised

I’ve already mentioned Lohse’s age. If age can be a concern for Haren (who is 32), then Lohse’s needs to be considered. While his best years have come in the last five years, there’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be solid, and age has a way of causing rapid regression. The Royals already have Bruce Chen on staff for next year and his overall numbers looked like what you’d expect from a pitcher in his mid-thirties who didn’t always have it every night.

Lohse will get a lot of buzz since he’s a guy who can go throw 200 innings in a year and because he’s been a part of successful Cardinals teams. That has value and he’d be a good piece of a competitive rotation. He’s been around league average throughout most of his career, doesn’t walk too many, doesn’t give up a lot of homers, doesn’t get hit too hard.

My fear is that the Royals will take Bowden’s advice and pay a little more than they need to to bring Lohse aboard. I’m afraid they’ll pay him a Gil Meche type of deal based on a career year. My fear is that he turns into the 2013 version of 1990′s Storm Davis. While his 2012 numbers look good – and nobody can look past a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings – instinct suggests he can only be worse next season.

Over his career, Lohse has a 4.45 ERA, working out to a 97 ERA+. His strong ERAs with the Cardinals are tempered by the fact that he’s in the National League, so relatively, his three good years are still good, but many other pitchers are in the same area in the rankings. It doesn’t automatically transfer to the other league if he were to sign with the Royals. Since Lohse isn’t a strikeout guy, and more balls will get put into play, moving to a more offensive-oriented league could hurt him. His 2012 numbers outperformed his peripherals, as his BABIP was a low .262 and his xFIP sat more than a run higher than his ERA (3.96). He’s due to regress and I have a bad feeling the Royals will have to choose between Lohse or Sanchez – and they’ll choose poorly.

Taking Inventory

That’s not to say that Lohse is a 6.00 ERA waiting to happen. He’s got value, but not what I think the Royals will have to pay. He has a fastball that hangs around 90 mph, mixes in a slider and changeup, all of which were valuable pitches this season. His secondary stuff has been consistently good. He can get you 190-210 innings a year.

There’s just no one skill that stands out. He’d be a fine #3 starter, but I’d rather retain Jeremy Guthrie over him. If he were affordable to the point that the Royals could sign Sanchez, Guthrie and Lohse, then I’d be less concerned. While David Glass has said he’s going to pay up this winter, the skepticism won’t go away until it’s confirmed that he’s signed anyone. All three may command eight figure annual salaries, and I can’t see Glass going that far. Also, Lohse would be making somewhere from  $10-13 million in 2016 when he’ll be approaching 38 years old, and that’s if he’s looking for a four year deal. If he makes the Royals pay for an extra year, that’s obviously a bigger commitment, and one that could haunt them before the deal hits its midway point.

Would Lohse be an upgrade from Luke Hochevar or Chen? Yes. If he were affordable, I’d have little worry about him, but he’s going to cost, and perhaps even more than just the dollars involved. If it comes down to Lohse versus Sanchez and the Royals choose Lohse, there’s the opportunity cost as well, both in missing out on Sanchez or in having a $13 million salary weigh down the team in three years and possibly prevent signing another, younger, better option. I’d rather take the shot on Sanchez.

Note: Buster Olney passed on that he’d heard a Lohse deal could command $60-75 million, which is far too much for a pitcher of his caliber, in my opinion.

They’re going to have to find pitching from some source, be it from free agency or a trade. Rany Jazayerli provided a persuasive breakdown of the Royals rotation post-2012 and where it stands going into next season. The gist is that the Royals can’t expect to succeed in 2013 if Jeremy Guthrie is the big signing of the offseason. Some parts of the rotation could stick around but they’d have to be shifted downward to make room for more capable pitchers. An ace would be nice, but a #2* (ideally two) would be fine.

*By this distinction, I mean a pitcher who would be reasonably considered the second guy in a rotation on most MLB teams. Some teams like the Angels have some #1 types and multiple #2 types. Some teams have a lot of 4s and 5s…like the Royals.

Enter Anibal Sanchez.

Background

Sep 5, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) delivers in the seventh inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Sanchez was an international signing by the Red Sox in 2001 shortly before his 17th birthday. He played in the Venezuelan League for two years, but ran into an elbow injury in 2003 and didn’t hit the United States minor league circuits until 2004 when he debuted in Low A Lowell (Massachusetts) but was a top five prospect in the Red Sox system. He was included with Hanley Ramirez in a trade to the (then) Florida Marlins that sent Josh Beckett to the Boston Red Sox.

He made his major league debut with the Marlins on June 25, 2006 in Yankee Stadium, going 5.2 shutout innings on his way to his first major league win. He threw a no-hitter that same season. From 2006 to 2009, he went up and down from the big leagues, missing most of 2007 with shoulder surgery to repair a tear in his labrum. He threw 109.2 innings in 2007 and 2008 combined. By 2009, though, his injury problems were mostly behind him. Over the last three seasons, he’s put up similar numbers including at least 31 starts and 195 innings in each, splitting 2012 with the Marlins and Detroit Tigers.

The Repertoire

Sanchez’s fastball velocity has been consistent throughout his big league career, averaging just under 92 mph, but he’s been hitting the mid-upper 90s in recent seasons.

Via FanGraphs

He threw the fastball less often in 2012 than in past years, but also had less success according to FanGraphs. His secondary pitches were all strong, though, and his changeup has always been his best pitch going back to his days as a prospect.

The Money

It’s one thing to identify who you want, it’s another to be able to sign them.

Sanchez made $8 million in 2012 in his last year of arbitration, split between Miami and Detroit. At only 29 years old next opening day, he’s one of the top options on the market and will look to be compensated appropriately (back in July before the Cole Hamels extension, Sanchez was considered the third best option headed for free agency).

Baseball-Reference lists A.J. Burnett as the pitcher most similar to Sanchez through age 28. In 2006, just shy of 29 years old, Burnett signed a five year $55 million contract with Toronto. The first year of that deal was only for $1 million in salary and $1.2 million in a signing bonus, but subsequent years paid him $13.2 million in 2007 and 2008. After that Burnett optioned out of the deal and signed with the Yankees for a bigger contract. I’d think $13 million a year is a good baseline for his salary. There are some red flags, as he’s had elbow surgery in 2003 and the 2007 shoulder surgery and hasn’t surpassed 200 innings in a season yet, but after inflation and with pitching at a premium every offseason, I think most teams will consider those concerns but there haven’t been reports of complications or recurrences, so it shouldn’t keep Sanchez from cashing in.

If the Royals sign Guthrie to be the third starter and go after Sanchez, it may be at the upper end of what they can afford. Guthrie may get anywhere from $8 to $10 million a season, and if Sanchez got $13 million (and the Royals signed him), they’d pay up $21-23 million on those two (and may then have to go after a trade for another pitcher where they may be able to add a prospect for some financial wiggle room from the trading team). Sanchez may be interested in a shorter deal of three or four years

In the last series of the year, the Royals broadcast team talked to David Glass on Fox Sports Kansas City and the Royals Radio Network and Glass mentioned two pitchers specifically when asked about the pitching market – Zack Greinke and Sanchez. Bob Dutton speculated that Sanchez is at the top of the Royals list.

As he should be.

The Verdict

Sanchez should be at the top of the Royals list (along with Greinke, though it’s unlikely they’ll be able to sign him). He’s a pitcher with improved control who still gets strikeouts. He doesn’t have strong fly ball tendencies, so his home runs allowed numbers should stay stable. Within Kauffman Stadium with a strong defense behind him, I think the Royals will be in a full court press to get Sanchez. He’s not an ace and he wouldn’t be the number one guy on most staffs, but he’s a very good pitcher who covers a lot of innings and gives a quality performance. He won’t be cheap, but he won’t be as pricey as Greinke or other top-flight starters of past seasons. The Royals will probably have to outbid the Chicago Cubs, Tigers and likely others.

If what Glass has said is true, they’re going to do it.

Prior to the recent trading deadline, conventional wisdom indicated the Royals were seeking major league ready starting pitching to help their struggling staff.  The Royals possess the trading chips that could have secured a big name such as the Cub’s #1, Matt Garza, but they were unwilling to part with them.  When all you’re offering is Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Francoeur, Jonathan Broxton, and/or Jose Mijares, you aren’t going to get much in return.

This lack of movement provides us with a clue that it’s unlikely the Royals plan to open up the prospect vault and trade any of their blue chip minor leaguers anytime soon.  This leaves us with the hope that one of the Royals promising pitchers on the farm will suddenly develop into a superstar, which is not likely anytime soon, or maybe, just maybe David Glass might finally consider writing a check during free agency for a legitimate arm to lead the club.

Based on experience, I realize it’s unlikely the Royals will pursue any truly big names, other than the slight possibility that they might go after Greinke.  However, there will be a few “affordable” pitchers available in the coming free agency period who I think the Royals should consider next off season.  I’ll give you my short list showing the current status of these pitchers, and with the exception of Greinke and possibly Jackson, I don’t think the Glass family can make the excuse that any of these guys are too expensive.  Any one (or better yet – two) of these players could provide a positive impact for the club in 2013.

Zack Greinke                   LAA      28 yrs    $13,000,000     9-4 W/L           3.61 era

Brandon McCarthy         OAK     29 yrs   $4,275,000        6-3 W/L             2.54 era

Anibal Sanchez             DET      28 yrs   $8,000,000        6-8 W/L             3.99 era

Edwin Jackson              WSN     28 yrs   $11,000,000      7-7 W/L            3.57 era

Colby Lewis                  TXR      33 yrs   $3,250,000        6-6 W/L             3.43 era

Shaun Marcum              MIN      30 yrs   $7,725,000        5-3 W/L             3.39 era

Joe Saunders                ARI       31 yrs   $6,000,000        5-7 W/L             3.62 era

Almost every one of these athletes carries some type of baggage.  Greinke has his famous personality disorder, Brandon McCarthy has experienced shoulder problems, Colby Lewis is out for the season, etc., etc.  But I’m still confident any one of these players would represent a significant upgrade for the Royals staff.  (I realize that isn’t saying much.)

Now that the race for the pennant is over, at least for the Royals, we need some new story lines to keep us interested.  The decisions regarding who will play a role in the Royals starting rotation in 2013 is destined to be one of the most interesting story lines and probably the issue that will either make or break the team next year.