Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

When the Royals acquired Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade, the organization knew they were getting a player who still had some growing to do offensively, but would bring a solid glove to a premium position.

In his first season in a Royals’ uniform, Escobar lived up to those expectations. His line for the 2011 season was not pretty: .254/.290/.343, good for an OPS+ of 74. Many fans were not pleased, but were willing to live with a weaker bat as long as Escobar kept playing such tremendous defense at shortstop. They were also hoping some offensive improvement was on the horizon.

Prior to the 2012 season, Escobar was signed to a 4 year, $10.5M contract extension with option years that could keep him in Royal blue through 2017 for just over $21 million total. At the time, it seemed like the Royals made a good move, as long as Escobar’s defense didn’t fall off too much. However, even the best defensive players need to have some kind of offense to prove they deserve that kind of money.

In the 2012 season, Escobar started to make his case.

Escobar finished last season with a line of .293/.331/.390 to go along with 35 steals and 42 extra-base hits. He wasn’t great at drawing walks, and he struck out 100 times, but he still was able to put up an OPS+ of 98. All in all, a perfectly acceptable line for a very good defensive shortstop.

Even after the season, there were still concerns that his production was a bit of a fluke, at least in part due to a career-high BABIP of .344. That, along with his poor BB% and K% resulted in a lot of fans expecting some regression from the 26 year-old Venezuelan in 2013.

It’s still early in the season, but thus far, it seems Escobar didn’t get the memo that he was supposed to slide back.

Prior to the game against the Rays last night, Escobar had a line of .290/.337/.452, with 3 HR and a .339 wOBA. Before you suggest he’s just getting lucky, consider the fact that his current BABIP is .289, which, combined with a LD% of 22.4 (roughly in line with last year’s number) and his speed, suggests that Escobar has actually been on the wrong side of luck so far, generally speaking. Granted, his HR/FB is currently 12.5%, which is almost certainly unsustainable, so I wouldn’t expect close to 20 HR over a full season. I do think he could end up with 10-12, however.

While the spike in power has been great to see, the numbers that stick out most to me in Escobar’s stat line are his BB% and K%. Currently, Escobar has a walk percentage of 6.9, which is below the Major League average, but quite a bit higher than his career average. His strikeout percentage currently sits at 7.8, which is extremely good considering his career number in that category is over 13. Obviously the small sample size caveat still applies, but the big changes in these statistics, along with the power surge, suggest that Escobar may be learning what pitches he has the best chance of driving and what pitches he should let go. This may not tell the whole story, however.

After diving deeper into the numbers, it seems Escobar is seeing fewer strikes in the zone than he ever has (48.5%), while swinging at and making contact with more pitches out of the zone (36.1% and 80.8%, respectively). These stats suggest that Escobar could regress some, as swinging at so many balls out of the strike zone typically is not a strong strategy for long-term success. That being said, Escobar has always been a guy with above average contact percentages, so he shouldn’t turn into a complete pumpkin. If he can continue working a walk every now and then, his strikeout rate can rise some without a huge negative impact to his overall productivity and value to the team.

What exactly is his value to the team, you ask?

Prior to last night’s game, here is where Escobar ranked among American League shortstops:

AVG: 3^rd

OBP: 3^rd

SLG: 2^nd

wOBA: 2^nd

WAR: 1^st

All while playing great defense for a team just half a game out of first place. Put that together, and think about this:

Right now, Alcides Escobar has a very good argument that he should be the AL starting shortstop in the All-Star Game.

Granted, there is still a lot of baseball to be played before the starters are announced, and even if Escobar maintains his current level of play, there’s no guarantee he’d get the nod due to the total joke of the fan voting process. If it was solely based on merit, Jed Lowrie is the only other option, since he’s the only SS having a better offensive season than Escobar, but his numbers are screaming for a regression based on an abnormally high BABIP and LD%. Regardless, Escobar is currently outperforming guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, and Elvis Andrus. Andrus, by the way, just signed a contract extension worth $120 million over 8 years. In case you forgot, Escobar is locked up for less than 20% of that for the next 5 seasons.

Even if Escobar regresses some, that contract is looking like an even better deal for the Royals than we previously thought. Andrus and Escobar have been roughly similar in their performance levels over the past 2 seasons. Andrus gets a little more love from the defensive metrics, while Escobar provides a little more power at the plate, but overall, their productivity is very comparable.

Paying a fraction of the cost for similar results is money well spent. Escobar still has a way to go before we can call his contract the best in baseball, over the contracts of guys like Matt Moore, Evan Longoria, and even fellow Royal, Salvador Perez. But there is no question that Escobar has one of the more team-friendly contracts in the sport.

Let’s look at the main reasons Escobar is being tabbed for regression first.  His walk rate did not change last year, but his strike out rate went from 12.2% in 2011 up to 15.4%.  That is not generally what you would like to see.  Additionally, he posted a BABIP of .344 after being below .300 in his first two full seasons.  This is actually in line with his minor league BABIP results, but maintaining that high of a number at the major league level takes a lot of skill.  Finally, one of the main factors that contributed to this high BABIP and the increase in power, mostly due to more doubles, is his line drive rate.  Alcides’ LD% increased from 18.1 up to 23 in 2012, and that’s a good thing.  The problem is that line drive rate has a very low correlation year to year.  In fact, of all the hitting metrics tested, it has the lowest correlation at 0.293, which means we can’t count on it being sustained.  The last piece here is the increased strike out rate that came from lower contact rates, and just keep in mind that his swing rates and pitches per plate appearance, so he wasn’t more selective.

That is a lot of evidence that suggests Alcides Escobar’s 2012 was partially luck driven, but there are a couple of things he did a lot better.  One thing that makes me think he is getting better is that last year he maintained his ground ball rate while increasing his line drive rate.  That means that he avoided fly balls posting his best FB% ever at 23.7%, and that is highly correlated year to year.  If he

March 6, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) hits a double in the first inning during a spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

hits fewer line drives this year it may mean his number of ground balls may increase rather than them turning into fly balls.  This is imperative for a hitter with so little home run power because almost all of his fly balls will end up being outs.  The second thing in Escobar’s season that stands out to me is his change in pitch values.  Last year he crushed fast balls compared to prior seasons, and he has been getting better at this over time.

In case you are unfamiliar with these, wFB is runs above on fastballs, while the wFT is two seem fastballs, wFC is cutters, and wFA is four seam and unclassified fastballs.  What these show is that Alcides was an above average hitter on fastballs last year for the first time in a full season, and that he improved from 2010 to 2011 as well.  Just for reference sake, Billy Butler’s wFB last year was 27, and Billy saw a fastball about 53.5% of the time last year versus Escobar’s 58.6%.  That means pitchers could start throwing fewer fastballs to Alcides, but even extreme fastball hitters still see a fastball 45% of the time.  He does not fit this category as these tend to be dead pull hitters with lots of power, think Ryan Howard.

At his age, Alcides Escobar’s improvement last year could be mostly due to development as a player through hitting the fastball well and avoiding fly balls.  If that development continues in his 26 year-old season this summer it could offset the regression from a little luck last year, and keep in mind that his BABIP and such don’t point to a crazy amount of luck either.  There is no reason that he cannot repeat, or even better, what he produced at the plate last summer

Berroa had a solid 2003 season, but like much of that year, it was just a mirage. His production dropped off sharply and it turns out he was two years older than believed when he was traded to Kansas City from Oakland. That led to the need to make a change and the trade for Pena. After two years of decent defense but feeble offense, Pena was converted to pitcher. He’s now floating around the White Sox organization.

September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) makes a throw to first for an out against the Los Angeles Angels during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Dayton Moore inherited a rough shortstop situation. Scratch that. He inherited a complete black hole of a shortstop situation. The Royals got a good 2008 from Aviles, but he needed Tommy John surgery in 2009, prompting the Royals to trade for Yuniesky Betancourt. Before Aviles, the last decent shortstop the Royals had was Rey Sanchez, but you have to go back to 2001 to see him. After that, it went Neifi Perez to Berroa to Pena to Aviles to Betancourt before finally getting Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade.

In light of that, the Royals also had few shortstop prospects. Going back through Baseball America’s prospect rankings, projected lineups had the following players in at short:

• 2007 – projected Jeff Bianchi in 2010
• 2008 – projected Tony Pena in 2011
• 2009 – projected Mike Aviles in 2012
• 2010 – projected Bianchi in 2013
• 2011 – projected Christian Colon in 2014

Of course, the projection made in 2011 was done before the Royals got Escobar, but that demonstrates how barren shortstop talent was in the Royals organization. Bianchi was ranked as high as 11^th in 2010 but he’s battled injuries throughout his minor league career. Older rankings listed Mike Moustakas as a shortstop (which he’d played in high school), but Baseball America was so confident in his ability to stay at that position that he was in projected future lineups as a right fielder.

It’s tough to find a good shortstop. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

In 2012, I found five players who played shortstop in 90% of their games, made 500 or more plate appearances and had an OPS+ above 100.

Some teams can find shortstops who can play the position but aren’t productive at the plate and that becomes acceptable. Like the catching position, defense is at a premium so finding anyone who can play there is enough for most teams. Finding someone who can produce at the plate is a bonus.

To do that, teams draft and scout players who play shortstop and hopefully can stay there. Most of the time, though, a player needs to move. Either they lose range as they get older, they fill out and aren’t as quick, they aren’t that good at the position, their arm is bad, or any number of reasons pop up that requires a move. Finding prospects who can play (and stay) at shortstop injects value into a farm system.

And faced with of that dearth of talent, Dayton Moore went out and got it.

The shortstop talent pool extends well beyond Escobar. Whereas before, you’d have to fudge the rankings to make Moustakas a shortstop prospect, now the Royals have two true shortstops in their Baseball America top 10 and five total in their top 22 according to the publication.

That’s light years from the situation Moore inherited. More importantly, most of those prospects figure to be players who can stick at shortstop or, at the very least, can be capable in utility roles to play shortstop part time. This provides value that could be used in the majors or can be turned into big trade value later on. Teams are always looking for shortstops. The Indians just got Trevor Bauer by finding a way to get the Reds to give up Didi Gregorius, one of their top shortstop prospects. Maybe you don’t like Bauer because of his attitude or the long-toss, but he can be a number one starter someday and those don’t grow on trees either. To trade a young, defensive-oriented shortstop for him (and in Cleveland’s case, not even one from their system) is a steal.

So who are these guys?

Adalberto Mondesi

There’s an argument to be made that Mondesi, and not Bubba Starling, is the top non-pitching prospect in the Royals system. He turned 17 in July, a year after signing with the Royals out of the Dominican. He celebrated by hitting .290/.346/.386 in the upper levels of rookie ball for the Idaho Falls Chukars. He succeeded against players who were two or three years older and with more professional experience. He’s got pretty good pop already according to scouts and he’s only now starting to fill out. Oh, and he switch hits, too. Jason Parks raved about him the last time we had him on the Kansas City Baseball Vault. Mondesi has a good shot at being the top prospect in the system after this year.

Orlando Calixte

Calixte is the other top 10 prospect in Baseball America’s rankings who plays shortstop. They say he has more power and contact ability than most shortstop prospects and after success in A ball in 2012 (at the age of 20) he has a good shot at Double A this year. He has the range, arm and hands to stay at shortstop and BA deemed him the closest shortstop prospect to the big leagues. Kevin Goldstein (when he was with Baseball Prospectus) said that watching Calixte field is what a big league shortstop looks like.

Feb 21, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Christian Colon (72) poses for a picture during photo day at the Royals Spring Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Christian Colon

Colon is pegged as a SS/2B in Baseball America’s annual prospect book, but Bob Dutton has suggested (and J.J. Picollo has confirmed) that Colon is the likely player to step in if there’s a long-term injury to Alcides Escobar in 2013. BA doesn’t list him in the shortstop depth chart – instead putting him at the top of the second base chart – but Colon was drafted as a shortstop and figures to start in Triple A at that position while either Johnny Giavotella or Chris Getz play second in Omaha.

Jack Lopez

The Royals built up their depth of talent in the system by going after players that most teams assumed wouldn’t sign. Lopez is one of those players. In the 2011 draft, the Royals took him in the 16th round and gave him a $750,000 bonus to go pro instead of taking a scholarship to Miami. He’s small (5’8″ and 170) and reports are that he hasn’t hit well because “pitchers can knock the bat out of his hands” but BA predicts that if he can get stronger, he can play shortstop everyday.

Humberto Arteaga

Arteaga turned 19 a month ago after spending the last two seasons in rookie ball. After signing in 2010 out of Venezuela, he’s not considered to have the same upside as some, but could be the best fielder of the group. He’ll have to get on base to have value, but if he makes strides with the bat, he could surprise a lot of people.

Ramon Torres

Torres just turned 20 and has been in the Dominican Summer League and played last year in Arizona, so he’s slower to develop than some of these guys, but the report on him gives him a great approach and judgment of the strike zone. He doesn’t strike out much and is able to take a walk, so even if there isn’t much power, he could be effective in the field and possibly get on base, which is a good combo for a shortstop. He’ll probably be taking a backseat to the rest of the shortstop crew, but might also move to second base. Five years ago, though, he’d probably be right around Bianchi in the shortstop prospect depth chart though, and that’s a sign of immense progress.

I wasn’t kind to Dayton Moore the other day, but I do want to give him credit for what he’s done for the problem positions in the organization. Shortstop was as empty as it could be when he took over and now, there are half a dozen guys who could turn into valuable trade chips or possibly play at the big league level.

And that doesn’t even count Escobar.

In 2011, Escobar hit: .254/.290/.343/.633. He also had 73 SO, 25 BB, stole 25 bases and was caught 9 times.

In 2012, Escobar hit: .293/.331/.390/.721. This was coupled with 100 SO, 27 BB and 35 stolen bases while being caught only 5 times.

I don’t consider myself a player-analysis guru. Far from it, in fact. I originally thought that Escobar’s improvement must have come from a increased amount of patience at the plate. However, I don’t know that that’s true. Escobar only walked 2 more times in 2012. I generally look and see if there was a significant change on the kinds of counts a player swung on throughout the season.

Alcides’ “first-pitch swinging” percentage went up from 24% in 2011 to 25% in 2012. His “swinging-strike percentage” went up as well from 12% to 14%. I don’t know if these are stats that are big factors or what the league average of such statistics is, but I expected to see significant change in these advanced statistics and others, and I”m not seeing much of a bump.

One reason for the uptick in production probably has something to do with Alcides’ somewhat inflated BABIP of .344. The traditional idea is that a BABIP should average out around .300. Escobar’s BABIP from 2011 was .285, so, if you believe in sabermetrics, it’s reasonable to imagine that Esky’s production should be expected to fall somewhere near the median of the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Even if that’s so, and Escobar hits somewhere in the “.270″ area, his ability to steal bases has shown growth and that makes him even more of a danger. Stealing 10 more bases in 2012 while getting caught 4 FEWER times is nothing to sniff at.

Escobar has shown an increased ability to steal bases. Or Yost just sent him more in 2012. You make the call. (John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

In my opinion, Escobar’s ability to swing the lumber and become an offensive threat is merely gravy upon the meat and potatoes of my estimation of him as a player.

Escobar has great range and is capable of making highlight-reel plays. He is, in my opinion, one of the best defensive shortstops in the A.L., if not baseball. He made a few more errors in 2012 than he did in 2011, but his incredible ability to get to the baseball makes up for that slight bump.

And if he is somehow able to maintain this sudden outburst of offensive prowess?

It’s gravy, Baby. Gravy.

It Was a Short But Disappointing Month of October for the Royals(Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

Well, if what Royals fans wanted was October baseball, they got it in 2012. Unfortunately, it wasn’t because of a playoff run, but because the schedule said they had to play in October. None the less, the three games that the Royals played during this month DID mean something…to the Detroit Tigers. One win against the Royals or a loss by the Chicago White Sox would mean a AL Central title for the Tigers. The Royals had a chance to make things interesting. The Tigers were too much to handle though, and won game one of the three-game set to clinch. They proceeded to soak the walls of the visitor’s clubhouse with booze and laughter. The Royals could only watch and think back to the high expectations that they did not live up to this season. It was a short month, but here’s a look at what happened in the Month of October…
I. Record/Standings
a. October Overall Record: 1-2 (.333)
Season Record: 72-90 (.444)
AL Central: 3rd (of 5)
American League: 11th (of 14)
Major League: 23rd (of 30)
b. October Home Record
1-2 (.333)
Season Home Record: 37-44 (.457)
c. October Road Record
0-0 (.000)
Season Road Record: 35-46 (.432)
d. October Streaks
Winning: none
Losing: none
Current: Lost 1
e. October Opponents
Tigers: 1-2
II. Ned Yost Quote of the Month
10/1-after the Tigers clinched the AL Central at Kauffman Stadium. Should the Royals watch?
“No, I want ‘em to feel it,” Yost said. “We can witness it all we want. We want to be there and feel it.”
III. High Point
Escobar’s Proud Moment after beating Detroit on 10/2
In the lone Royals win of the month, Alcides Escobar was on a one-man mission to impress. It turns out that the game was being televised to home homeland of Venezuela. His family & friends back home were watching. Escobar did not disappoint, he had three hits including a home run, drove in two, stole a base, and was spectacular in the field. It’s been a great year for Escobar, and Royals fans should be excited that he will be in the lineup in 2013.
IV. Low Point
Season ends with an offensive fizzle on 10/3
Luis Mendoza tossed a gem in the final game of the season, but the offense only combined for a total of six hits and zero runs. It was a good summation of the frustration that 2012 brought. Often times this year, we’d get a good pitching performance, but get no offense. Other times, we’d score a bunch or runs, but the pitching would be awful. On this night, the Royals were 0-5 with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on base. The result was a 1-0 loss and lots of fans walking away with a bad taste in their mouth.

Royals Fans Siezed the Opportunity to Cheer Miguel Cabrera’s Crowning Achievement (US Presswire)

V. Surprises and Disappointments
1) Cabrera’s Triple-Crown Reception.(Surprise) Royals fans again proved that they are a quality bunch. In the last game of the year, the fans paused to cheer Cabrera’s amazing accomplishment. It must have surprised Cabrera and the Tigers, because they were greeted the same as if they had been in Detroit. It was a classy sendoff by Kansas City fans, who may just have been happy to have something special to cheer for.
2) Bullpen Record. (Surprise) The 2012 Royals bullpen set an American League record by striking out 537 strikeouts during the season. They surpassed the record set by the 2001 Cleveland Indians. This is a good sign for the young Royals bullpen, but some of this could have been in part to an increase in innings pitched. That increase is due to having to rescue poor starting pitching. So, yes, it’s a good sign, but it’s also an unintended consequence.
3) No Fight in This Dog. (Disappointment) I know it wouldn’t have made any difference in the Royals’ season, but it would have been nice to make the Tigers work for their crown a little bit. After getting swept in a four-game series last week, the Royals lost two of three in the final week of the season. After playing so well against the White Sox, it would have been good to see some of the same results against the Tigers. It could have been due to the face that in the end, Detroit was simply the better team.
VI. Transactions
None

Alcides Escobar – Mr. (first three days of) October (Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE)

VII. Player of the Month
Alcides Escobar
In the three games that made up October, Alcides was impressive. Of course he flashed leather like he has all year, be he finished his best year at the plate in fine fashion as well. He had six hits in the three games, batting .429 with a home run and two RBI. He was productive on the bases too, stealing a base in each of the three games. It’s an important finish for Escobar, as he’ll be an integral part of the team’s success next year (if there’s any success to be had). I get the feeling that Escobar is truly happy to be here & that he’ll continue to be a productive member of this lineup.
Honorable Mention: Johnny Giavotella. Granted, he only got to play in one game, and it was the meaningless last game of the year, but he played well. Johnny went 2-4, and leaves Royals fans wondering exactly what his fate will be next year. He never really got the chance to prove his worth in Kansas City. It will be interesting to see if he ever gets the chance to do so.
VIII. Pitcher of the Month
Luis Mendoza
Mendoza did not get a win, but he had one of his better performances of the season and what was the best pitching performance of October. Luis pitched seven strong innings, scattered six hits, and allowed just one run. He gave up three walks, but struck out six Tigers. In the end, his offensive teammates were not able to score one run. The bullpen finished the game without allowing a run and the Royals lost the game 1-0. It was an up & down year for Mendoza, but he’ll have a lot of success in Kansas City next year if he is able to pitch this well with consistency.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Guthrie. Sure, he got the only win in October, but he had the offensive support to mask whatever shortcomings he had during this outing. Still though, it was another in a string of good starts by Guthrie. He tossed six innings, giving up two runs and five hits. He struck out three batters, but also walked three. Now, it’s up to the front office if they’ll bring back the guy who somehow ended up being the Royals’ best pitcher by the end of the year.
IX. Compare to October 2011
The 2011 Royals didn’t play in October. A familiar sentiment…
X. Summary
2012 was a tough year that was plagued by a couple of terrible months. October was short, but still managed to be disappointing in its own way. As it sits, the Royals won’t be involved in the postseason yet again. In fact, with the Washington Nationals making the playoffs this season, it means that every team in Major League Baseball, the NBA, the NFL, and the NHL has made it to the playoffs more recently than the Kansas City Royals have. Let that stat stew in your brain this offseason, because there won’t be baseball again until April. It will be interesting to see what the organization does during the winter. There are big issues and big holes to fill if this team is ever going to be competitive. Whether or not the team makes real changes is a decision that is in the hands of only a few important people. As fans, all we can do is hope.

The duo of Jarrod Dyson and Alcides Escobar made club history today as they are the first Royals teammates to both steal 30 or more bases since the World Series Champion team of 1985.  This season won’t have the same outcome as the 85 season had, but it’s still a nice little accomplishment for the pair of Royals.

There are only four other pairs of teammates to accomplish the feat so far this year.  Brewers teammates Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez have 30 and 36 respectively, and Jimmy Rollins and Juan Pierre of Philadelphia, also are a 30 stolen base duo with 37 and 30.  In Miami, speedsters, Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio both have surpassed 30 stolen bases and the final duo in the AL East are Rays teammates Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton.  Norichika Aoki could join his Brewers teammates over the last few days of the season if he can swipe 2 more bags and Jordan Schafer can join his Astros teammate, Jose Altuve, if he can grab 3 more bases.

September 25, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (bottom) steals second base with Detroit Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta (27) covering during the sixth inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

The most important piece of this puzzle is getting on base, first.  No matter how fast a guy is, the old saying stands true  that you can’t steal first base.  Dyson has an on base percantage of .332 which is 11 points higher than his career on base percentage.  Escobar’s career on base percentage is slightly over .300, but this season he’s improved greatly in that category with a .329 on base percentage.  Obviously these higher on base percentages are going to result in more opportunities to steal a base, not to mention the big jump in playing time for Dyson as he filled in for the ailing Lorenzo Cain.

Escobar is slightly more efficient this year with a stolen base success rate at 86% by swiping 32 bags and only getting caught 5 times.  Dyson has a success rate of 85% as he has stolen 30 bags and has only been caught 5 times as well.  However, it’s important to note that Escobar has yet to be picked off and Dyson has been picked off 7 times.  In knowing that, the edge definitely goes to Escobar as the most well rounded base stealer on the team.

Most of us knew we were getting a great defensive shortstop in Escy, but we didn’t know we’d get this much production at the plate from him.  His base running/stealing is another element of his game that is just adding to his value as a very well rounded shortstop and one of the league’s best.  Dyson is a fringy 4th outfielder type, but his ability to capture an extra base when the team needs it most is a very important part of his game.  Most teams value having a guy like that on their team and it’s something that could keep Jarrod on the team for next year, at the very least.

Stealing bases can be a huge asset to a team’s success.  Teams sacrifice players on the base path all the time by using bunts and situational hitting, but if a player can advance bases solely on his own behalf, that adds tremendous value to his overall game.  However, a player can also do more harm than good if he can’t steal bases at a high success rate.  This duo was very successful in aiding the team on the base path and hopefully they can continue that success into next season as well.

Will Smith opens the series for the Royals tonight at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE

When Last We Saw …

These two teams haven’t seen each other since May 25-27 when they met at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. KC was coming off losing two-of-three in New York against the Yankees but after taking the series in Baltimore finished the trip beating the Indians twice in Cleveland on that nine game road trip.

Season Series …

KC trails the season series 3-2 but did win two of the previous three at Baltimore in May. The season series began in May with O’s coming to town taking the series winning both games.

Royals fans won’t forget the 15-inning game with Jonathan Broxton blowing the save and Nate Adcock saving the ‘pen. The next day Kansas City built a 3-0 lead that Luke Hochevar and crew couldn’t hold onto losing 5-3.

In the first game at Baltimore the birds knocked Bruce Chen out with a five run fifth en route to a 8-2 victory. Jason Hammel handcuffed KC in six innings no allowing a run on five hits while striking out seven. DH Chris Davis went 2-for-4 driving in three runs, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones drove in two runs each.

Game two of the series saw the Orioles again jump out to a lead of 3-0 but the Royals scored the game’s final four runs. Humberto Quintero of all players put KC ahead driving in Eric Hosmer with a double to the left. Hosmer extended the lead in the eighth driving in Mike Moustakas on a single, also to note Greg Holland picked up the win with Broxton the save.

The final game of the series was back and forth with the teams exchanging the lead. Hochevar took the no-decision going 4 2/3 innings striking out six. Jeff Francoeur gave the Royals the lead with a solo homerun and Quintero added an insurance run with another double that scored Alcides Escobar.

5/16 – Orioles 4 @ Royals 3 F/15
5/17 – Orioles 3 @ Royals 5
5/25 – Royals 2 @ Orioles 8
5/26 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 3
5/27 – Royals 4 @ Orioles 2

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):

Thursday, 6:05 pm – Will Smith (2-4, 6.00)  v. Wei-Yin Chen (10-6, 3.46)
- Smith will be seeing Baltimore for the first time in his career on Thursday night in his eighth MLB start.
- While 1-4 in his last five starts he’s gone 5+ four times, the lone win game at the Angels in which might be his best start going seven innings allowing one run on two hits.
- Chen took a no-decision in his May 27^th start against KC after going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s won his last two starts against Oakland and at Tampa Bay.
Friday, 6:05 pm – Luke Hochevar (7-9, 5.04) v. Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.80)
- Hochevar is 0-1 with a ND this season against the O’s this season.
- In the start at Baltimore he threw 109 pitches striking out six, allowing seven hits.
- Gonzalez will be making his first career start against KC and has alternated wins/losses during his last five starts with the last being a win over Tampa Bay which he went seven innings.
Saturday, 6:05 pm – Luis Mendoza (5-8, 4.36) v. Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38)
- Mendoza comes in as probably the Royals most consistent starter being 2-4 in his last six starts going back to July 4.
- His last two starts saw him go 7.1 innings both starts which he’s 1-1 (beat Cleveland and lost at Chicago).
- Tillman since losing his long game of 2012 has won four straight starts. Wins have come at Cleveland, Tampa Bay, at New York and Seattle, against the Mariners he went seven innings.
Sunday, 12:35 pm – Bruce Chen (8-9, 5.51) v. Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55)
- Chen suffered his fifth loss of the season on May 25 in Baltimore when he allowed six runs on seven hits going only four innings.
- In his career he’s 2-2 against the O’s in five career starts but has only thrown 25.2 innings.
- Hunter has losses in three of his last four starts with a no-decision at New York. On May 16 he also got a ND against the Royals at the K which he went seven innings.

Tonight we continue an exciting new venture for Kings of Kauffman and its podcast, the Royalman Report.

Jeff Logan of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society joins forces with us to form the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Kansas City’s ESPN 1510 AM from 6-7 p.m. every Thursday night. Listeners can tune into traditional radio or streaming live on 1510.com.

Tonight’s guest is Bill Fischer, a former Kansas City Athletic (1961-1963) as a pitcher. He currently serves as the Royals special pitching assistant.

We’ll also go over what we’re watching for the rest of the season as the Royals spiral towards another 90-loss year.

It all starts at 6 p.m. CST on ESPN 1510 AM in Kansas City or 1510.com if you’re out of the area.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Alcides Escobar is one of the Royals most exciting players in 2012 (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I got the idea for this story while watching Alcides Escobar jolt two no-doubt home runs in the same game while batting from his new home in the two-hole on Saturday, July 14 during a 6-3 Royals victory over the first place White Sox.  By the end of the game, Escobar was batting .311 and was surprising all of us with his ability to hit for power and average.

Think about how excited the clubhouse gets when Moustakas belts a home run.  They meet him at the top of the dugout steps, they high five and chest bump each other.  Now, think about what would happen if Chris Getz ever hits another of his “every blue moon” dingers.  (Getz hasn’t had a home run in any park – major or minor league – since 2009 during his stint with the White Sox.)  The team would meet him at home plate, they would pick him up and carry him back to the bench.  They would drown him in Gatorade.  Why?  Because it wasn’t expected.  When a player exceeds your expectations, it truly makes the game a thrill to watch.

Alcides Escobar came to us in the Zack Greinke trade.  Milwaukee packaged him with Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress to get our former Cy Young pitcher.  In addition to Greinke, the Royals tossed Yuniesky “Boomerang” Betancourt into the deal as well for good measure.  Unfortunately, Yuni didn’t stick, and he came back to us again this year.

The players the Brewers traded to the Royals were the best prospects they had to offer.  Lorenzo Cain would have been the Brewers starting Centerfielder, Jake Odorizzi is considered to be a future solid contributor from the starting rotation, and Jeremy Jeffress is a former 1^st round pick who is still developing.

Alcides had also garnered some significant accolades, particularly for his defense.  Beginning his career as an Amateur Free agent in 2003, he’s always hit for average in the minors (.293 career over 6 seasons), but his bat has consistently been overshadowed by his glove, and as we all know, offensive prowess doesn’t always translate as well from the minors to the big leagues the way defensive ability does.

Alcides Escobar demonstrates his superb defensive skills. (Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE)

Prior to assuming regular duty with the Brewers in 2010, Escobar was ranked as the #1 prospect in the Brewers system by Baseball America, and Sports Illustrated claimed he was the 17^th most promising prospect in all of baseball saying, “Escobar has the arm, infield actions, hands and range to win Gold Gloves at shortstop. He makes the routine plays and the tough ones, too. Plus, he has speed that impacts the game offensively, and his swing’s not so bad either.”  Saying his swing is “not so bad” isn’t exactly the greatest compliment, but there is no doubt that everyone recognized Escobar’s dynamic defensive potential.

Escobar struggled somewhat in his first full season in the majors with the Brewers.  He hit a light .235 (which unfortunately is still a few points above the “Hosmer line”) and experienced some difficulties defensively too.  He committed the 3^rd most errors of all National League shortstops, and had the unfortunate luck to mishandle the ball with incredibly bad timing.  Brewers fans claimed Escobar suffered from a “lack of focus” and had a habit of committing costly errors at exactly the wrong time.  This disappointing performance may have been why the Brewers were willing to include Escobar in the trade.  Lucky us.

After the Greinke trade, the only note MLB.com included about Alcides in their story was that he had “the tools to be an extremely exciting defensive player” but he struggles at the plate.  ESPN said almost exactly the same thing.

So, what did we think we were getting when Alcides Escobar trotted out to man the left side of second base to begin the 2011 season?  We thought we were getting a light hitting defensive whiz who needed to work on his concentration and focus to be successful at the major league level.  And in 2011, that’s exactly what we got – a .254 batting average, 4 home runs, and 15 errors, but he was at least as good or a little bit better in almost all areas over his previous season.   So, we were pleasantly surprised as his performance mildly exceeded our expectations.

To begin 2012, I believe most of us were expecting another similar season out of Esky.  We expected him to play strong defense, and to hold his own on offense, but we didn’t think he could be a game changer or even a player that we could count on for a key hit.  Escobar has met our defensive expectations with some of the most exciting infield defense most of us have ever witnessed, but on offense…  he’s surpassed our wildest expectations.

If you think Alcides Escobar can't hurt you with his bat, you are mistaken. (Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE)

Think back to last March as we were contemplating the season opener.  What would you have predicted about Alcides Escobar?  Would you have ever dreamed he would be mentioned in the same breath as Derek Jeter on offense?  Jeter and Escobar have been jousting for the league lead in batting average among shortstops.  Jeter has 7 home runs, Esky has 4.  Jeter has 27 RBI, Escobar has 29.  Escobar has far, far better range and defensive skills than the always dependable but long-in-the-tooth Jeter, making plays on balls that Derek would only waive at.  And Escobar is providing this production for the Royals at a $15 million discount over what Jeter is charging the Yankees.  Stunning, but true.

A few nights ago, Brad Brickell tweeted (@BradBrick) that the Royals win the Greinke trade on Escobar alone, and I agree with him, at least to this point.  Greinke is a great pitcher, and I’d love to have him back again when he hits free agency later this year.  But up to this point, I think it’s clear that Alcides has easily exceeded our expectations, and he’s a key factor in our bright hopes for the future.  Hopefully, all baseball fans will realize this when they’re voting for the All Star players in 2013.

If there’s one thing that most bloggers and writers should stay away from doing is questioning the effort being put out by any given player. No matter what can be perceived by simply watching a game, whether on the TV or in person, there is no way anyone could ever know what is going through the mind of another person. It’s a reason I hate the “body language” argument so much: you can only interpret what you see, and what you see is full of incomplete information.

But enough is enough with Jonathan Sanchez.

The Royals lost Monday night – effectively trying to ruin the swagger of my posting day – after Sanchez gave up seven runs in 1 1/3 innings.

I’ll have to admit it has been a while since I have sat down and actually watched a complete Royals game. Heck, it’s been a while since I’ve sat down and watched even a couple innings. This season has quickly turned into a replica of the many before it, and the same bad baseball, terrible plate-disciplined offense, and loud contact pitching staff has made me put forth very little effort to watch my favorite team. Apparently, the same has happened to Sanchez with how much effort he’s willing to put into his pitching.

When watching the highlights of the two homeruns hit off of the Royals left hander I was struck by how little effort Sanchez was using to throw. I’ve made the comment before about his outings on Twitter that it just doesn’t look like he’s trying out there. There’s no explosiveness. There’s none of the all-out, back leg flailing effort from him that I was used to seeing when he was one of my favorite pitchers to watch like in this highlight from 2010.

And this is where it gets sticky. No fan knows for sure whether or not Sanchez has been told to slow down his delivery in an effort to improve his command (which is an incredibly flawed way of thinking, as I wrote here). No fan knows whether or not if Sanchez is hurt. No fan knows whether or not Sanchez is truly and absolutely and without any doubt, over-the-top upset with himself over the way he’s pitched. All anyone has to go off of is perception.

The perception, in the case, is a damning reality.

Not every athlete needs to be a fiery personality. Not every athlete needs to wear his or her emotions on their sleeves, showing the joys of victories and the pains of defeat. Not every athlete is built the same that way.

But what the fans see can sometimes unfortunately twist the narrative of how much a player cares. Continuing to get pounded by opposing teams, and then getting blasted by one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and then not showing even the slightest hint of frustration or pissed-offness, will wear on a fan base.

What’s worse is it has started to turn higher up. Jonathan Sanchez’s 2012 season to this point is no longer about Melky Cabrera and the trade that brought him to town. It’s about his lack of success, his lack of effort, his lack of production, and how the organization keeps going to him to start games.

Basing personnel decisions on a fan reaction is no way to run a franchise. But when the reaction is so perversely negative to a player’s attitude and perceived lack of desire to improve his production, onus is on the organization to act before their lack of desire to improve the team’s production is questioned.

That time may already be here.

The Good

Alcides Escobar.

I was wrong.

Escobar has been great this year; better than expected. The rise he’s taken from noodle-batted (h/t @devilfingers), all glove shortstop to near-elite level bat at the shortstop position is really quite something.

Yes, his batting average is largely a product of an obscenely high BABIP (nearly 100 points higher than a season ago), but that is just as much due to a near 5% increase in line drive percentage, as it is pure luck. And even though he’s never been known or perceived as a patient hitter, his walks are on pace to better last year’s (although still just for over 30, which leaves much to be desired) so there’s improvement in that area as well.

Even though I’m not of the opinion that the Royals “won” the Zack Greinke trade – that’s too much value to lose out of a single spot on the roster to have it not be replaced by four players – having Escobar as the every day shortstop is a nice security blanket to have. And even if this BABIP infused offensive statistics may be even the littlest bit misleading, Escobar is at least filling into more of the player profile he was supposed to have when he was first acquired.

The Bad

When I first started doing this format I thought it would be a good idea to force myself to come up with a “good” category, so I would have to write something positive about the team I am mostly negative about. However when the same movie is being played out on a nightly basis, the same movie that has been played too often over the past two decades, it gets difficult to continue look at the positives when they’re clouded by all the bad things that make the ending scene incredibly predictable.

These couple paragraphs of “bad” could again be spent on how the Royals continue to waste at-bats on Jeff Francoeur (who has turned back into Jeff Francoeur ), the overwhelmingly confusing struggles of Eric Hosmer, or the starting rotation that continues to spin in perpetuity in the sea of mediocrity, but there’s really one very succinct way to sum of the bad, courtesy of Carrington Harrison’s tweet this morning:

The Royals wins and games back totals on July 16^th in each of the last six seasons:

2012 – 38 (10.5)

2011 – 38 (12)

2010 – 39 (11)

2009 – 37 (11.5)

2008 – 43 (11.5)

2007 – 39 (16)

That should be knock-you-on-your-heels staggering. It caught me by surprise.

No matter how much talent is in the farm system, no matter how much talent is on the major league roster, no matter how much the perception may be that the organization is headed in the right direction, at some point, that perception needs to lead to reality in the “wins” column.

This is year six of the Dayton Moore regime. And while there are excuses to be made – some with validity, most without – about where the franchise was when he took over and injuries, there is no excuse for a team to be this depleted of starting pitching talent, and there is no excuse for this team to continually freely give away outs on offense whether through terrible strike zone judgment (look at this!) or awful base running.

Even if – if – the overall talent on the major league roster is better at this point than it has been at any point in the last five seasons, this team on the field still can’t get out of it’s own way in terms of the category that matters most. Wins.

And wins are the only thing fans should trust.

The Upcoming

Rather than preview the upcoming Royals schedule, which at this point looks to be pretty meaningless, I’ll just say these two words: Wil Myers.

Hopefully, hopefully soon, he’ll be what’s upcoming.

Sure, you could make the argument that losing games – in any sport, at any level – has to do mostly with the deficiencies of the roster and/or the flaws of management strategies, but with the Royals over the past six years (or 25 years) the same story gets written far too often during a loss. It’s just how it is.

What’s started to happen though is while there are fans that are upset with watching the same base running mistakes, the same awful plate discipline, and the same pitch-to-contact bad starting pitching, there are also those that point endlessly to the positives (of which there are many) as a reason for hope.

It’s understandable, and in some ways admirable, but when the rays of hope are continually clouded out by the storms of unoriginal bad baseball, there shouldn’t be much of a reason to fault the many that are still skeptical of progress.

This isn’t about the Royals, it’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary from all the losing.

While trying to think of a proper opening to this week’s Rant I kept finding myself coming back to that phrase as a way of justifying, – no, explaining – the feelings and tensions among most Royals fans after a loss. No fan base likes losing and when the losing turns to being just as laughable as it is predictable, there’s often nowhere else to turn with the disgust than to continually point to all the other (losing) instances that look the same, and categorizing it as such. It would be like watching a Farrelly Brothers movie: the jokes are the same, the writing is the same, and inevitably, the ending is the same.

Is there progress? Yes. Billy Butler has turned on the power this year and is finally being recognized for the truly special hitter he is, and is an All-Star. Despite Alex Gordon’s first three weeks of the season, he’s been great and continues to get on-base at a ridiculous rate (non-Joey Votto Division) and play terrific defense. Mike Moustakas has exceeded expectations and the bullpen has been spectacular. Alcides Escobar deserved an All-Star nod as well.

All of these things are points of progress and reasons that the future looks bright. Presumably. But there are still questions.

Questions about the roster construction,* questions about the rotation now and looking ahead, questions about this teams ability and lack of concern for walks on offense. To completely ignore these questions because either a) the Royals won a few games last week or b) because there are still positives out there, is irresponsible to the overall cause of the process.

*Why is Jason Bourgeois on this team?

One of my many complaints of sports media and the state of journalism in general in today’s landscape is the unwillingness of the writer or broadcaster to ever ask “why”, or challenge the status quo with the pertinent questions. Questions that, if posed correctly, are needed to hold those accountable that need to be so. Questions that if asked to the Royals would hold them accountable for a brand of baseball that still far too often looks like it did six years ago.

Teams lose games all the time. Good teams don’t lose games the same way all the time. And good franchises don’t lose games the same way all the time, for years and years in a row.

As a whole, the Royals fan base does tend to be a negative one, I think we can all admit that. I’m guilty, other writers on this site are guilty, and certainly writers on other sites are guilty. But that’s about a fan base that has grown tired and weary of all the losing.

The Royals will win a few games this week. The Royals will probably win a few games next week too. But when another three-to-four game stretch like the one that was just played in Minnesota happens (and it will happen), the “negativity” will not be the fault of an overzealous, ignorant, jump-to-conclusion fan base; the fault will be of an organization that continues to lose games the same way it has for six years.

The Good

As much fun as it is to continually drive the Alex Gordon bandwagon, I can understand that it does tend to wear on the reader from time-to-time. I can.

But I also don’t think it gets talked about enough just how good a player Gordon is, or that this year’s version of the Royals would look far different, and far worse, if he were not on the team.

Gordon is currently sixth among all American Leaguers in fWAR, and according to advanced metrics (take those for what they’re worth on a two-plus-month sample) he has been the best defensive player out of any position. Holy schnikes.

Since finally breaking the .200 batting average mark on April 26, Gordon has hit .296/.388/.438 in 59 games.

Even though the power isn’t where it was a year ago, Gordon’s plate discipline and walks have far exceeded his career norm, making him almost the perfect type of leadoff batter. Plus, with the improved discipline, there’s more hope that the power will come too, putting him back into the “star” category that he was in a year ago.

The Bad

Even though one of the strengths coming into this year was supposed to be the offense (though, not by me) and it has thus far been an extreme disappointment, there’s really only one position that can be looked at as the biggest problem of them all: right field.

The struggles of Hosmer at first and the never-ending Getz/Betancourt experience at second and the noodle-bat of Jarrod Dyson in center are bad in their own way. But, all of those positions don’t have a clear answer, and at least in one of those cases the season-beginning starter at least performed well – to some degree of “well” – before being lost to injury.

The right field problem continues to be a mystery though as Wil Myers continues to be a terror in Triple-A, and the only reason (or at least presumably only reason) that he’s not currently in a major league uniform is because he doesn’t have a natural position that isn’t already being occupied by either an a) equally talented player or b) by a player that is better suited to perform defensively.

There is the Super Two argument, to be sure, but what seemed before as something that was more monetary and cost controlled in reason, seems to border more on the absurd now that Jeff Francoeur continues to see every (freaking) day playing time with little justification to do so. Especially now, that Myers seems all but perfectly ready for the next challenge, and most likely Super Two is out of the picture.

Francoeur’s re-signing with the Royals at the time was incredibly perplexing not solely for the reason that a player with a history of being average-at-best was locked up to two-years guaranteed before the outfield market established itself, but that Dayton Moore and the Royals were paying on a player’s career BABIP-induced year and not his historic norm. Hey, it happens, and at the time when Melky Cabrera turned down the same contract to stay in Kansas City, it may have seemed prudent to keep Francoeur around on a similar deal if for no other reason than to have a legitimate, everyday big-leaguer in the lineup.

But that would also call into question Francoeur’s relevance to be an every day major league player.

This season he’s been down right dreadful, and there’s no arguing that. The fact that he’s batted fifth every day without change is comedy fodder alone, but also that he’s accumulated a negative fWAR to this point shows just how unproductive he has been at what is supposed to be one of the more offensive positions on the field.

What’s even more discouraging is that even though there are numerous stories out there now about Francoeur’s impending departure via trade, the Royals seem to not really know if giving up Francoeur at this time and replacing him with Myers would be beneficial to the club.

Aside from Francoeur’s two, two-week hot streaks each year that make his numbers seem better than they really are, there doesn’t seem to be much at this point that he offers in terms of real value over a younger, cheaper, more athletic, and better hitter in Myers. But, in the #OurMissionTime2012 season, the supposed leadership (and already committed marketing campaigns) Francoeur brings to the table was thought to be a difference maker. Well, it is, just not in the way the Royals, and probably Royals fans, had hoped.

This thought isn’t meant to be reactionary, though in some ways, it probably is. Even though the Royals peaked last week at just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, the roster overall most likely isn’t good enough to compete or finish for the division crown. So dealing with Francoeur’s deficiencies with range, plate discipline, contact abilities, base running abilities, and consistency, may be buying an extra year of non-arbitration for Myers. May be.

But at some point it has to be about winning and winning now. Free passes are given far too often to players that are underperforming for the Royals organization, and this would appear to be another one of those occasions. Though, you could make the argument that the decision to continue to play Francoeur (though the decision to continue to bat him fifth is indefensible) is about winning – just winning three years from now while Myers has still yet to hit arbitration.

No matter the reason, a right fielder batting .256/.293/.387 (not all the far off from his career numbers, mind you) is killing the lineup.

The Upcoming

The Royals sure do know how to ruin a good thing. Just when it appeared the organization was back on track, there’s a hurdle thrown out in front of them and the players collectively fell over themselves. And it doesn’t get any easier.

After a favorable June schedule that resulted in another winning month for the club (14-12), July starts out with a punch to the stomach with four on the road in Toronto, and three on the road in Detroit before the All-Star break.

Any time Jonathan Sanchez has taken the mound this year it has been a guaranteed frustrating outing, and today was no different.

Sanchez walked six batters in just 4 1/3 innings of work while allowing 10 hits and 6 runs today, all earned. In a month that set up prime for the Royals to make a run at the AL Central lead, Sanchez has thrown 21 innings and given up 27 hits, 18 walks, 16 earned runs, and struck out just 14. Ouch.

A stretch of stats that’s normally reserved for the Mac Suzuki’s or, gulp, Luke Hochevar’s* of the world, Sanchez’s lack of production and perceived lack of desire or care has turned him into public enemy No. 1. With good reason. Each passing day that Melky Cabrera continues to perform above expectations, the once-justifiable trade turns more and more into a disappointing laugher. A laugher, in which the only real “win” for the Royals at this point, would appear to be a release of the left-hander.

*I know, he’s pitched better of late. His career numbers are still pretty ugly.

But that can’t quite happen, really.

One glaring weakness of the Royals roster is the starting rotation, and while a replacement in Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock, Vin Mazzaro, or others, might seem to be a viable alternative to the struggling Sanchez at this point, all of those arms will be needed to help out a struggling bullpen that’s being asked to take on a load that no other bullpen in baseball is being asked to do. For the time being, the best option for the Royals may be to wait and hope that Sanchez can turn things around.

Of course, that sentence changes, if they announce a move of Sanchez sometime soon.

Tomorrow the Royals send Bruce Chen to the mound in hopes of splitting the series against the Twins. The bright side after the doubleheader loss is that the Royals have still guaranteed themselves a winning month of at least no worse that 14-12. Rad flags still surround this team, like being outscored this month despite a favorable win-loss record, but back-to-back winning months is something to be proud of.

Also tomorrow the All Star Game rosters will be announced. Alcides Escobar, Billy Butler, and Mike Moustakas all have the numbers to justify their selection at their positions, so it’ll be fun to see if more than the requisite bullpen arm, charity selection, is taken from the Royals.

 Alcides Escobar – Shortstop

Alcides Escobar is a coin flip to represent the Royals in the All-Star Game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

 The Case For: Don’t look now, but Alcides Escobar is currently hitting .316 and sporting a .355 on-base percentage. Those numbers place him first and third among American League shortstops, respectively. He ranks third with his .779 OPS, second with 19 doubles, and third with 12 stolen bases. He batted .349 in June with a .477 slugging percentage. In short, he’s been raking.

 And all this comes from a guy who was brought to the Royals in the Zack Greinke trade as a defensive specialist with a lot to learn on offense. Well, Escobar has learned all right. His confidence at the plate is palpable, and this incarnation of Escobar in no way resembles the timid, distrusting batter we saw at the beginning of the 2011 season.

 And Escobar never stopped being an elite defender. He possesses excellent range, and despite a somewhat pedestrian fielding percentage, he currently ranks second among AL shortstops with 128 putouts and is tied for third with 53 double plays. He also has been regularly featured on Sportscenter’s Top Plays, which is about as impactful for his chances of making the All-Star team as every statistic I’ve cited in the previous two paragraphs combined.

 The Case Against: I don’t feel entirely comfortable nit-picking Escobar since he has been so fantastic this year. The only quibble I can summon is that Escobar lacks power, having hit only two home runs on the season.

 Also, since the less productive Derek Jeter is a lock to make the team, Escobar could get squeezed behind a power bat like Asdrubal Cabrera or, gulp, a nepotistic selection such as Ron Washington’s own Elvis Andrus.

 The bottom line is that Escobar deserves the honor. He can only hope that politics don’t interfere with the correct decision.

 Odds of Making Team: 51%. If you’ll notice, the combined percentage odds I’ve divvied out to these three players total out to 126%. That figure reflects my 26% certainty that the Royals will get a second All-Star selection for the first time since Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal were honored in 2003.

 My Pick: He’s tentatively in, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get shafted by Ron Washington.

Mike Moustakas – Third Baseman

2012 isn't likely the year for Mike Moustakas to represent the Royals at the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Moustakas ranks 3^rd among American League third basemen with an .803 OPS, 3^rd in homers with 13, and 4^th in doubles with his 17. He has also displayed surprisingly world class defense at third base. Moustakas leads all AL third basemen with 23 double plays started, which is seven more than pursuers Brett Lawrie and Miguel Cabrera. He also ranks second in assists and second in fielding percentage. By almost any metric, he has been an elite defender this season.

On top of his league rankings, Moustakas has arguably been the best all-round Royal this season. He currently sits second on the team in home runs, RBI, and OPS, and is third on the team with 17 doubles.

Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera seem like locks at this point. But Moustakas has a legitimate case to make this team as the back-up to the back-up third baseman.

The Case Against: Moustakas’ mid-.260’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page. Furthermore, as good as his defense has been, ultimately the reality is that the All-Star game is more about offense than defense. The guys with impressive counting numbers are more likely to get the nod. And offensively, it would be difficult to argue that Moustakas deserves to make the team over teammate Billy Butler.

He is young and still improving, and will no doubt get his opportunity to play on the big stage in his blossoming career. But for guys who are neck and neck in quality like Butler and Moustakas, the player with the longer track record of success should get the nod.  Butler simply deserves to be recognized as the best player on the Royals. Moustakas’ best chance would be if the Royals garner two roster spots.

Odds of Making Team: 10%

My Pick: Moustakas will make plenty of All-Star teams, but it’s not going to happen in 2012.

Billy Butler – Designated Hitter

Billy Butler might be swinging for the fences in the home run derby next week. Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

The Case For: Butler leads the Royals in home runs, runs batted in, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Oh, and he’s currently second on the team in batting average. He’s been the most consistent Royal for several years now, and is coming into his own as bona fide superstar. We’re roughly halfway through the season, and Butler is on pace to shatter his career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

As much as I hate to jinx Butler’s power surge through the season’s first half, I nonetheless feel compelled to mention that Billy (16 HR’s through 76 games) has made himself into a legitimate threat to surpass Steve Balboni’s infamously embarrassing club home run record of 38.

Plus, Butler owns the third best OPS among qualifying designated hitters, trailing only Boston’s David Ortiz and Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion. Chicago’s Adam Dunn is running neck and neck with Butler, but he has several teammates (Paul Konerko, Chris Sale, Alex Rios come to mind) at least as deserving of a spot. Because every team needs to represented, the quota on White Sox all-star candidates probably doesn’t run four-deep.

The way I see it, the All-Star game is the perfect opportunity to carry three designated hitters, since most of the non-starters at the game won’t figure to get more than one at-bat anyway.

Bonus: Butler would become a natural candidate for the home run derby if he was named to the squad. If Saturday’s bomb against the Twins is any indication, he could put on quite a show.

The Case Against: Butler must get tired of hearing this, but no conversation regarding his talents is complete until the obligatory mention that he doesn’t play defense. When he’s competing for a roster spot with defensive stalwarts Moustakas and Escobar, that fact simply has to be taken into account.

Odds of Making Team: 65%

My Pick: He’s in.

Jim Nash finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 1966 for the Kansas City A’s with a 12-1 record and a 2.06 ERA. He was gracious enough to talk to us about his career and journey to the big leagues on the latest episode of the Vault.

Turns out, a chance discussion with manager Al Dark may have helped him get noticed during spring training and earned him a shot at the majors that year. He covers it in detail on the show.

We also talked to Aaron and Chance from Biking for Baseball – a group who travels by bike across the country and is visiting every big league stadium this season. Between games, they team up with Big Brothers Big Sisters to share baseball with children all over the country. They’re a fun group and doing good things.

After parting with our guests, we argued over Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, talked about All Star candidates and Royalman ranted about Jonathan Sanchez.

We’ll be back next week with more discussion of Kansas City baseball, past, present and future on ESPN 1510 Thursday at 6 p.m. CST.

You can catch up on old episodes of the Kansas City Baseball Vault here on Kings of Kauffman. Episodes of the Royalman Report are available on the site as well.

Follow the Kansas City Baseball Vault on Twitter and Facebook for future programming updates. Also follow Kings of Kauffman for article updates, discussion and other information.

Let me give you an example.  I was recently looking at the Royals team history page and discovered something interesting.  If you review the column of “Top Players” you’ll see a number of recognizable names of athletes that contributed mightily to the success (or relative success) of each specific season.  You’ll find Alex Gordon, Amos Otis, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Beltran, David Cone, Johnny Damon, Kevin Appier, Zack Greinke, John Mayberry, Dan Quisenberry, Willie Wilson, Joakim Soria, etc. and of course George Brett – a veritable who’s who of Royal’s history.  You’ll also see Jose Offerman, Mark Teahen and a couple other mild surprises.

This made me think…  What is, or what should be, the definition of the Top or Best player?  Baseball Reference defines the Top Player as the individual with the highest WAR (Wins Against Replacement) rating of any player on the team.  WAR is a tangible analysis that takes both offense and defense into account, but it doesn’t make any attempt to measure leadership or intangibles, and it seems to favor pitchers slightly in my opinion.

5 time All Star Mike Sweeney was never the best player on the Royals according to Baseball Reference (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Let me give you an example of the lack of leadership skills and intangibles in the WAR calculation.  Remember Mike Sweeney?  There is a lot of mixed opinion about Mike, and deservedly so, yet he put up some dynamite offensive numbers for a few years combined with the ability to hold his own at first base, and he was the undeniable leader of the Royals during his time as Captain.  Yet this 5 time All Star who hit .333 with 144 RBIs, 71 walks, and a league leading 15 HBPs in 2000, and a 2002 season that saw him hit .340, .563 slugging, and 148 OPS+ was never the “Top Player” for the Royals according to Baseball Reference and his WAR rating.  In 2002, that honor went to Paul Byrd.

What do you think of that?  Was Paul Byrd a more important piece of the puzzle for the Royals in 2002 than Mike Sweeney and his .340 batting average? (.340 is 2^nd only to George Brett’s .390 in 1980, and how would you like to have a .340 hitter on the Royals right now?)  In 2002, Paul Byrd was 17-11 with a 3.90 ERA and he led the league with 7 complete games – he was definitely a very valuable pitcher, but I don’t think his performance could be defined as “dominating.”  Paul Byrd appeared in 33 games.  Mike Sweeney played in 126 (less than a full season due to the beginning signs of his many recurring back issues), had the first straight steal of home by a Royal in over 20 years, was named to his 3^rd consecutive All-Star game, led the league in defensive assists by a 1^st baseman – and he was the Captain of the team.  But this wasn’t good enough to be the Royals “Top Player.”

Obviously, my definition of the best player on the team is going to differ from other fans, and from other experts as well.  My subjective definition simply asks, “Who was the player the Royals could least afford to do without?”  In 2002, I believe the answer has to be Mike Sweeney.

Before the 2012 season began, who did you think the Royals’ best player would be this season?  If you’re like most of the rest of us, you may have thought, or at least hoped, it would be Eric Hosmer.  If so, those hopes were dashed weeks ago as we’ve witnessed one of the most dramatic sophomore slumps in recent memory.  A few of you may have predicted Alex Gordon, or maybe Joakim Soria prior to his injury.  Predictions are based on hopes, and as a Royals fan you certainly know that hopes are often dashed.

If you said Billy Butler, you were pretty much on target.  (Although according to WAR rating, Alex Gordon is on top for the second year in a row – I don’t agree in 2012.)  However, I am hesitant to name a DH as the best player citing the same reservations many have for naming a pitcher as MVP.  And unless a Royals pitcher is completely and utterly dominating (see Steve Busby, Dennis Leonard, David Cone, Zach Greinke, or Bret Saberhagen) I have similar misgivings.

For 2013 we have several potential candidates for best player.  I’ll list my nominations below and include the odds that I think I’m right.  And, I’ll also acknowledge that there’s no possible way any reader will agree with me 100%.

Could Mike Moustakas become the best player on the Royals? (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

Mike Moustakas:  The improvement Mike has shown from 2011 to 2012 has been nothing short of breathtaking.  He is much more comfortable at the plate this year, and in the field he doesn’t even look like the same player.  I believe Mike’s personality has many leadership qualities and he’s maturing into a presence that will almost certainly make him the best player on the team at some point in his career.  For 2013, I’d say the odds of Mike being the Royals best player, the guy they can least afford to do without, are about 3 to 1.

Eric Hosmer:  Although he hasn’t come close to fulfilling our expectations this year, Hosmer’s potential is so tantalizing that I have to put him near the top of the list.  I believe Eric is just a tweak or two away from “righting the ship” and getting back on track to becoming the offensive powerhouse we all know he can be.  His defense is still solid, but it may take a while for his personality to mature into a true clubhouse big dog.  I’ll put Hosmer’s odds of being the best player in 2013 at 5 to 1.

Alcides Escobar:  If you told me I could only watch one play from each Royals game, I would pick the inevitable web gem that Esky turns in virtually every night.  It is truly a thrill to watch Alcides display his otherworldly defensive skills while protecting the left side of the diamond.  I’ll go out on a limb and say that after watching him for less than two seasons he may not be the absolute best defensive shortstop I’ve ever seen, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone better than him.  Escober is hitting around .290 at a premium position and I believe the only thing that could potentially limit his ability to be a great club house leader are his English language skills.  Alcides is my dark horse candidate for best player in 2013 and he’s my favorite to watch play in 2012.  I’ll put his odds at 10-1.

Jeff Francoeur:  I believe Jeff is the closest thing the 2012 Royals have to a clubhouse leader and his rocket arm and intangibles are great.  Who’s the guy you see chest bumping his team mates every night and cheering them on with one of the most upbeat personalities in the majors?  It’s Frenchy.  Who else tosses baseballs wrapped in $100 bills and gets into hilarious mock disputes with opposing mascots?  Frenchy’s power numbers are way down this year and his average has dipped, so his on-field performance is not trending in the right direction which makes him a risky wager.  I also wouldn’t bet on Jeff being “da man” in 2013 due to the fact that he may not even play in a Royals uniform.   If he is still wearing Royals blue in 2013, I would put Francoeur’s odds at 15-1.

Wil Myers:  At some point in 2012, no matter how hard the Royals brass try to hold him back, he’ll force his way to Kansas City.  And he may light it up offensively when he arrives, but his defense still needs work and there’s almost no way anyone can be a true clubhouse leader in his first or second year.  Odds 30-1.

Billy Butler:  Great DH, one of the best in baseball.  But as I explained earlier, I just don’t think a DH can be the best player.  If a DH is your best player, then your team is in trouble.  Odds 30-1.

Jake Odorizzi:  See “Wil Myers.”  Odds 50-1.

Alex Gordon:  Gold Glove defensive left fielder who has been a disappointment at the plate this year.  He’s a solid contributor and I want him on my team, but he’s not a vocal clubhouse leader and has little chance to be the best player on the team in my rating system.  In 2013, I’d rate him at 50-1.

There are a few other players who have a shot at being the best player, but all of them have significant question marks either because they may not recover from injuries (Joakim Soria and Danny Duffy), they haven’t played in the majors long enough for us to get a good sense of their performance (Salvador Perez), or because Dayton Moore hasn’t traded for them yet or signed them as a free agent (Zach Greinke – hint, hint…)

And don’t get me started about relief pitchers.  Unless you are Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry, or Joakim Soria in his prime, you can’t even be considered the Top Player on the team.  It would be the same as voting the field goal kicker as the top player on an NFL team – it’s not going to happen.

Could Yuniesky Betancourt be the best player? Haha, just kidding! Almost got you, didn't we? (Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE)

Yuniesky Betancourt:  I’ll just skip straight to the odds.  10,000,000,000 to 1.  I had to throw him in just for kicks.

The biggest reason we have difficulty selecting the potential top player is because the Royals are so young.  Most of the time I believe that’s a good thing and not a bad thing, but it causes them to be inconsistent as they go through the struggles of figuring out how to succeed in the big leagues, and most of them simply have not matured into the true leaders that they will hopefully one day become.

I still believe that we are two solid starting pitchers away from being a contending team and I’m holding on to hope that we find these hurlers somewhere, either in the farm system, through trades or free agency, before the start of the 2013 season.  When this happens, we’ll find our team playing in October, and this is the time when true clubhouse leadership emerges and performance on the field has a historical impact on your team and your legacy.   When we play in October, that’s when we’ll definitely learn who is the best player on this team.

Who should be the scapegoat for another year of disappointing Royals baseball?  Whose head needs to roll as a result of the team’s poor showing?  Dayton Moore? Kevin Seitzer?  How about Rex Hudler?

Should Ned Yost be the scapegoat for what has been a disappointing season so far? (Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE)

One of the interesting aspects of social media is that it provides a real time peek into the thoughts of hard core sports fans.  Every evening you can sit down at your computer and watch the commentary during the game.  One of the most frequent themes on Twitter has been that Ned Yost is to blame for this disappointing season and that he should be taken to the nearest bus terminal with a ticket to Anywherebuthere Town, USA.  But I say – not so fast.

Before I explain my thoughts, let’s take a peek into the world of social media and look at just a few of the many thousands of comments concerning Ned Yost:

• Aaron Stilley @Royal_Heritage – You may say Yost is a by-the-book manager, but today I saw him pioneer the use of a late inning defensive downgrade while leading!
• Scott Thomas @hosmermania – Ned Yost=Hank Hill. Old fashioned grumpy guy who hunts. Never does anything new. Very predictable.
• Mike Engel ‏@michaelengel – How many people in uniform were surprised by the bunt? One? The left field ball boy? #Yosted
• Josh Green ‏@Jashg84 - As long as Yost is in there, it will continue like this unfortunately
• 1Yankh8r ‏@1Yankh8r – Can’t wait to see how the Spin Doctors in the Yost camp sell last night’s debacle. #FireYost

#FireYost has become a popular hashtag.  So is #Yosted.  And fans are right to be upset.   Some of Yost’s decisions this season on the surface appear to be nearly inexplicable.  But let’s take a closer look.

I think the best way to judge a manager is to evaluate what he is doing with the talent he has been given.  For instance (I realize this is a very unrealistic example, but I’m trying to make a point), what if one participant in the Indy 500 was forced to ride a bicycle – how well do you think this person would do and where do you think he or she would finish?  You would expect him to finish last because the race wasn’t fair, he wasn’t given the same sleek expensive race car to drive as all the other competitors.  You know what I’m getting at, don’t you?

The Royals payroll is about $61 million.  That’s about $2.5 million per victory so far this year.  Wins are going for about $5 million each in Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) this year, and almost $6 million in Boston.  By comparison, if higher payroll means greater talent, then Ned Yost isn’t playing all that badly with the hand he’s been dealt.  The Rays do an awesome job at less than $2 million per victory.

Are the Royals going to bunt again?!? (Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE)

Still, how do you explain all the crazy managerial decisions Yost has made?  There have been times I’ve wanted to tear out what little hair I have left every time I watch Yuniesky Betancourt trot out to 2^nd base or yet another failed and ill-advised bunt attempt go awry.

The Royals have been caught stealing more than any other team in the American League except one.  This is pretty remarkable considering 10 teams (in the American League alone) have stolen more bases than the Royals.  Just imagine how bad this statistic would be if Jarrod Dyson hadn’t been playing recently.  Aren’t the Royals young and athletic?  Don’t most of them have average speed or better, with the possible exceptions of Billy Butler and Humberto (why did we trade for him again?) Quintero?  Are the coaches sending the green light at the wrong time?  Are the players using poor technique?

How many times this year have you seen a Royal caught napping and picked off the bases?  Many more times than I care to recall.  Is poor coaching to blame?

There are a couple schools of thought regarding a stable lineup.  Some people say it’s beneficial to a player to always know his role and where he’ll bat when he comes to the stadium.  Yost obviously didn’t attend this school.  Yost believes in juggling the lineup as if it were a bowling ball, a power saw, a flaming torch, and a butcher knife.  Unfortunately, when you play with fire, somebody is going to get burned.

I wish I knew why many of the Royals are slumping at the plate this year.  Is this Ned Yost’s fault?  Last year, Kevin Seitzer was considered to be a hitting guru on the level of Charlie Lau.  This year, Hosmer was unable to hit his way out of a paper bag for six weeks, Alex Gordon is on track for 12 home runs compared to 23 last year, and the team is trending toward scoring about 100 fewer runs than last season.  Is this Kevin Seitzer’s fault?  Is he not providing the same quality guidance and instruction as last year?

So how good are these Royals and how much talent does Ned Yost have to work with?  There’s really no way to know.  With acknowledgement that some may disagree with me, the 2012 Royals may have one of the major’s best defensive shortstops in Alcides Escobar, one of the best defensive catchers (when Salvador Perez returns – please hurry), the best defensive left fielder in Alex Gordon, the strongest outfield arm in Jeff Francoeur, possibly the major’s most improved player in 3^rd baseman Mike Moustakas, the player with the greatest potential in Eric Hosmer, the speediest bench player in Jarrod Dyson, one of the top hitters in a position loaded with talent, DH Billy Butler, the hardest throwing relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera, and a very capable bullpen. But without decent starting pitchers, there is simply no possible way to know how good this team is.

The pitching anchor of the 2012 Royals is Bruce Chen.  Just let that soak in for a moment.  On opening day this season, we sent Bruce Chen to the mound in Anaheim to face Jered Weaver.  Weaver was an All-Star and 2^nd in the Cy Young balloting last year.  Chen’s heater is about 84 mph.   The Royals brought a knife to a gunfight that day and they were shutout 5-0 in a swift 2 hours and 22 minutes, the 2^nd shortest game of the season – it was merciful and quick.  This isn’t the way you want to start a season and it set the tone for what was to come.

Bruce Chen is the Royals #1 pitcher. No really, I'm not kidding. (Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

I don’t blame Bruce Chen.  Bruce is a very likeable guy who gives it everything he has every time he walks to the mound.  But he shouldn’t be in a position where a team looks to him as the stopper.  Chen earns $4.5 million per year.  Weaver earns $14 million.  It’s like sending your funny cousin Joey into the ring to face Mohammed Ali in his prime every five days.  Who would do that?   Why are the Royals doing it?  It’s insane!  How can we blame Ned Yost for this injustice?

I believe it all boils down to pitching.  Pitching is the lifeblood of a baseball team.  Wins and losses begin with the guy who takes the mound in the 1^st inning.  Pitching holds the other team down, keeps your side in the game, and provides your teammates with a chance to win.  A baseball team simply cannot be successful without strong starting pitching.

When you watch a team play that has poor starting pitching (aka The Royals), anything else you see on the field is an attempt to make up for this shortcoming.  Everyone else must extend themselves and try to do things they aren’t capable of doing.  They must try to steal when the timing isn’t right.  They constantly bunt in a desperate attempt to move runners into scoring position.  They try to hit 6-run homers when nobody is on base.  The manager flip flops the lineup trying to find a winning combination that will overcome the lack of talent on the mound.  He’ll move the potential All-Star 1^st baseman into right field trying to squeeze one more drop of offense out of a team that must overcome a mishmash hodge podge rotation cobbled together from castoffs, 2^nd level trades, and Independent Leagues while waiting for the top prospect hurlers in the minors to one day, some day, fulfill their potential.

So, who’s fault is it that the Royals don’t have a major league caliber starting pitching rotation?  In my opinion, it isn’t Ned Yost’s fault.  He can only manage with the team he’s been given.  He doesn’t draft, he doesn’t make trades, it’s not his main responsibility to evaluate talent and bring prospects up from the minors.  It’s his job to coach the team on the field.  No doubt he overcompensates and ends up doing things that look stupid in retrospect, but many of these decision are made in desperation while attempting to surmount the overwhelming pitching handicap the Royals have been saddled with.  All things considered, it simply isn’t possible or fair to call Ned Yost the worst manager in the major leagues, and we won’t be able to make this assessment accurately until and unless the Royals Front Office provide him with a competitive rotation.

You may say the Royals can’t afford to compete in the free agent wars and their small market revenue stream places them in an unwinnable position.  Well, no doubt it makes things more difficult, but I don’t see anyone in Tampa making excuses for their low payroll, and they are winning.  And by the way, they’re winning with an abundance of talented young pitching.  Just sayin’.

How will Kansas City greet Zack Greinke Tuesday when he returns to Kauffman Stadium for the first time since being traded. Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

At this point many probably feel the Brewers got the better of the deal since they made the postseason with Zack and were two wins from the World Series last fall. Another reason Royals fans feel like the trade didn’t work out is because Betancourt was brought back this past offseason. It also doesn’t help that since the trade Greinke’s 23-8 during the last two seasons. During those two seasons Kansas City could’ve used a number one starter.

Saying his time in the city of fountains was up and down is an understatement because he only had two seasons with a winning record, one .500 season, lost 17-games in 2005 and dealt with a social anxiety disorder during his time in KC. As for the bright spots he did strikeout 15 Indians on August 25, 2009 which broke the team’s strikeout in a game record, previously held by Mark Gubicza.

His crowning achievement was winning the 2009 Cy Young award with a 16-8 record and 2.16 ERA for a team way removed from the postseason. That season he represented the Royals in the All-Star Game in St. Louis striking out two of the three hitters faced.

How will the crowd react Tuesday night? I expect it to be a mixture of cheers and boos when he takes the mound likely in a navy blue Brewers jersey. Royals fans never got to say goodbye and with Zack being a free agent this winter I think some people are holding out hope he returns since he and his wife still own a home in Kansas City.

When I heard that he was scheduled to pitch during this brief homestand there was no doubt that I’d drive down from Omaha to see the “return” of the former hero. I was there for the wins and losses in addition to the night where he toyed with Cleveland, I won’t boo but it will be bittersweet seeing him in another uniform.

Maybe if he’d stayed KC they’d be further in the “process” than they are now but there would also be no Alcides at short or No Odorizzi, no Cain (who could still contribute if he can stay healthy), no Jeffress (who might get back to KC at some point). In addition who knows if Greinke becomes the guy he is right now, the one who is nearly unbeatable at Miller Park and 7-2 this season. It’s possible that if he remains might of continued had he not got the change of scenery due to the struggles of 2010.

So if you’re at the K on Tuesday, it’s understandable if you root for the Royals while remembering the good times we had with number 23 throwing for Kansas City. However once Zack throws his first pitch to Alex Gordon your emotions might change a bit.

Tommy Milone kept the Royals off-balanced earlier this season in Oakland can KC return the favor this weekend? Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

These two teams met in early April with the A’s taking two-of-three against KC, Oakland won the first and third games of that series. The Royals were coming off an opening series win in Anaheim lost a 1-0 game, won 3-0 eighth inning game and lost 5-4 in 12-innings.

In the opener Kansas City met Tommy Milone who three-hit the Royals over eight innings, the stat that sticks out is he didn’t strike out anyone. Luis Mendoza threw 5 2/3 innings on 97 pitches allowing just one-run. Grant Balfour picked up the save coming in the ninth inning stranding Mitch Maier on second base after walking him with one-out.

Danny Duffy made the start in game two on what was a rainy night in Oakland, more on that in a moment and handcuffed the A’s over six innings. Cliff Pennington’s double was the only hit that Duffy allowed during the game. KC struck for two runs in the fourth inning putting up two-runs with Mike Moustakas doubling home Billy Butler and Humbero Quintero getting Jeff Francoeur home on a sac fly.

For much of the night there was a steady mist that fell during the game which picked up late. Maier hit a homerun in the seventh putting KC up 3-0 which was all the run support needed on this night. In the eighth the rain really picked up which after the inning put the contest in a rain delay resulting in the game being called.

Game three started the Jonathan Broxton anxiety which every Royals fan seems to have when Mr. Excitement (my nickname due to this) given how it ended. The game went back and forth with quality starts from Bruce Chen and Brandon McCarthy.

Fast forward to the top of the 12^th inning when KC took a 4-3 lead. Broxton, struck out Daric Barton before walking back-to-back A’s, Alcides Escobar committed an error to start the trouble. Two straight walks were followed by an RBI-groundout tying the game which Broxton then hit two hitters in-a-row ending the game.

Probable Pitching Match-Ups (All Times Central):     

Friday, 7:10 pm – Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.52) v. Felipe Paulino (2-1, 2.03)
- Colon is 1-2 in his last three starts against the Angels, Giants and Yankees picking up a win at San Francisco. His lone win he went five innings striking out seven with two walks, in the other two games he lost he pitched six plus with three strikeouts and no walks. In his career against the Royals he’s 15-9 with a 4.92 ERA.
- Paulino’s record doesn’t show just how good he’s been for the Royals with a win at New York sandwiched around two no-decisions against Baltimore. Saturday, Felipe went only 5.2 innings compiling five walks and strikeouts in 109 pitches at Camden Yards. In three career starts against Oakland he’s 0-0 but has a 12.46 ERA going just four innings allowing six-runs.

Saturday, 1:10 pm – TBD v. Luke Hochevar (3-5, 6.19)
- It’s not know who the A’s will start on Saturday against KC, the Athletics list four starters on their roster but we’ll see if they make a roster move.
- Hochevar despite losing two of his last three starts he’s seen his ERA drop from 7.02 to 6.61 to its current 6.19 state. Kansas City won 4-2 on Sunday in Luke’s last start but he couldn’t escape the fifth inning going just 4.2 innings striking out seven, walking one. In seven career games Hoch is 0-6 with a 6.39 ERA against Oakland.

Sunday, 1:10 pm – Tommy Milone (6-4, 3.64) v. TBD
- Milone was mentioned earlier from his mastery of the Royals back in April but coming into this start he’s just 1-2. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts losing 4-1 at Texas and 2-0 against New York while beating Los Angeles 2-1. After not throwing 100 pitches in his first seven starts, he’s reached the century mark over the last three.
- One would think with Kansas City not announcing a starter that Jonathan Sanchez who pitched Tuesday in Omaha could be called up. Vin Mazzaro could also get a spot start or Mendoza who threw 3.2 innings Monday at Cleveland if the team didn’t make a move.

Now the comment that sparked that rant was said with the disclaimer “right now” – as in at that time of June a season ago – Escobar was playing as the best.

Aside from how ridiculous it is to claim that any shortstop is the best during any stretch of a season as long as Troy Tulowitzki has his name written next to a “6” on a lineup card, the mention of Escobar isn’t wholly without understanding given the amount of hyperbole that usually comes with Royals shortstops and their talents.

What was a beyond laughable sentiment a year ago because Escobar finished the year with a .290 on-base percentage*, has started to gain just a little bit of steam again this season because of his BABIP-fueled start at the plate which has lead to a plus .300 batting average.

*And no matter what you think of a player’s defense, it’s pretty damned impossible to make up for that many outs on offense.

And really, it makes sense. Royals fans have always had the propensity to overvalue rather ordinary skills from some players because of either a wry smile or because they hustled just so gosh darn much, but at the same time undervalue skills like being an awesome hitter for…well there really aren’t good reasons why for that. And Escobar is no different in that his defense – which is pretty good, I’m not arguing that – somewhat overshadows that he makes a ton of outs on offense. (And that the Royals received him by trading Villian #1, even though that villain did nothing but speak honestly and have a three year run of almost 20 fWAR)

(TWENTY fWAR!)

So I decided I would take a quick look at Escobar’s stats for this season to see if anything jumped out at me to make me believe that he has in any way changed himself offensively to be considered more of an all-around great shortstop. In short: not really.

We’ll start with two numbers:

2011: 4.2 BB%, 12.2 K%

2012: 3.7 BB%, 15.7 K%

Understandably Escobar’s season isn’t yet 200 plate appearances old, so the goal horn (that’s for you, McGannon) of Small Sample Size Alerts is going off in the background as I write this, but the picture of “Shortstop Jesus” somehow being a different hitter isn’t accurate. He may not be worse, but there’s not really any telling evidence that he is better either.

Two more numbers:

2011: .081 ISO, .285 BABIP

2012: .101 ISO, .361 BABIP

These two sets of numbers possibly paint a little more fair picture of what Escobar currently is as a hitter. Granted his 2011 BABIP is low and part of that may have something to do with his rather substantial lack of power. It should stand to reason that batted balls hit with more force should be harder to be turned into outs, but a 2012 near 80-point increase in BABIP while strikeouts are up and walks are down? Eeesh. Holy unsustainable, Batman.

None of this is to say though that Escobar can’t keep up this string of luck and ride out another couple months hitting at this level. It’s possible. But there’s very little about Escobar’s career in professional baseball that should lead to a belief that he is something other than a very low walk, highly reliant of balls-in-play batter, because he’s not. That is exactly what he is.

Escobar is great fun to watch play defense and his athleticism at least leaves some hope that his bat will take major leaps forward into being a more valuable asset, but as with many things in Royals’ land, be patient until that day actually comes before planting a flag into the ground declaring it has arrived.

What would be nice is if fans would finally realize that Billy Butler planted that flag into the ground four years ago. Which I guess – yeah, why not – I guess is the point to this entire rant: just another way for me to write about how Billy Butler is a really good hitter, disguised as an Escobar post. Suckers.

But now the circumstances have changed; the Royals have faced injury, ineffectiveness, and an insufferable losing streak. They are toeing that “disappointed” line in a dangerous way.

As we move into June, the players listed below have only a few more weeks to prove that they deserve to be the Royals single, obligatory All-Star selection. I’ve now come to the realization that it would take a run of epic proportions to catapult a second Royal onto the American League roster*. But we’ll see over these next weeks if any of these players (or the team as a whole) can take the league by storm.

*anti-jinx alert. Come on boys.

OFFICIAL ROYALS ALL-STAR POWER RANKINGS, Vol. 3

Billy Butler has displayed excellent power in 2012. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

1.Billy Butler – Season: .289/.352/.521 with 11 home runs, 11 doubles, and 35 RBI. Last Week: .217/.308/.478 with 2 home runs.

Butler takes the top spot this week mostly by default, after a week in which most of his competition stalled. But Butler’s .478 slugging percentage does incite optimism. As Mike Moustakas encountered a mini-slump, Butler has emerged as the lineup’s best hitter.

The main reason that Butler has elevated to the top spot is an obvious one: He’s been the best hitter on the team. Butler has also put in his dues by being the team’s best hitter over the past several seasons. He’s one of the longest tenured Royals, which means that, for better or worse, Butler is practically synonymous with Kansas City baseball. As long as he is producing at his current clip, I’m not sure it matters what position he plays.  While the designated hitter position continues to boast a wealth of worthy All- Star candidates, it remains plausible that Butler would be an enticing bat to stash in the American League line-up for a pinch-hitting opportunity.

2. Mike Moustakas – Season: .272/.335/.485 with 8 HR, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Last Week: .227/.346/.409 with  5 RBI, 4 walks.

Moustakas has spent the better part of the past two weeks in a certifiable free fall. On May 27th, his slash numbers had fallen down to .264/.320/.465 from his season-high of .313/.370/.545 on May 7th. It looked like the Royals third baseman may have reverted to his  form of those dark days immediately following his call-up in 2011.

Mike Moustakas slips from the top spot in the rankings for the first time. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

But Moustakas has recorded hits in each of the past three games, including a 4 RBI game on Tuesday in which he hit his 8th home run of the season. So the potential crisis may have been averted.

The bad news for Moustakas is that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera has been raking in recent weeks, and has raised his OPS to a robust .882. Mark  Trumbo of the Angels presents another potential dilemma now that he has been moved to third base. Although Trumbo is not on the All-Star ballot as a third baseman, he is certainly in line for a coach’s pick with his 1.029 OPS.

Moustakas’ drop in rank is more of a product of what’s happening around him than of a short slump. A strong week (or a Butler slump) could bring him back to the top of these rankings.

3. Tim Collins – Season: 2.42 ERA in 26 IP, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 18 hits. Last Week: 4.1 IP, 2 hits, o ER, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.

Now here’ s a guy who has done nothing to diminish his chances of representing the Royals at Kauffman Stadium this summer. Collins has been electric this season, and last week was no different.

Tim Tim Collins has reached new heights this season. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

In fact, Collins has not given up a run since May 7th. In that time, he has pitch 9.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and struck out 16 batters. He’s been the best reliever on the team, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Before you mention Jonathan Broxton, keep in mind that in his 19.2 innings of work, he’s struck out only 12 batters while allowing 18 hits.

Collins, for his part, has struck out 26 more batters in just 6.1 more innings of work. The cherry on top of this argument, if it’s necessary, is that Collins has allowed the same number of hits and walks as Broxton despite those 6.1 extra innings.

Am I getting too excited about two months worth of dominant relieving from Collins? Maybe.

But keep this in mind: through this season’s first two months, Collins has a K/9 ratio of 13.2. Retired 7-time All-Star closer Billy Wagner, who at the (listed) height of just 5 feet, 10 inches is a popular comp for Collins, recorded a career K/9 ratio of 11.9.

Obviously, it’s unfair to compare an entire career of one player to two months from another player. But Collins has the potential to turn that comp into a legitimate one.

Just some food for thought.

4. Alcides Escobar – Season: .303/.344/.404 with 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases. Last Week: .292/.346/.292 with 4 runs.

Escobar has jumped a level offensively this season, but it might not be enough to make him an All-Star. David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Despite maintaining a relatively high batting average throughout the season, Escobar has had difficulty hitting for power. Last week was a perfect example of that trend, as Escobar hit .292, but did so without the benefit of an extra base hit. As such, he finished the week with an identical .292 slugging percentage.

All that being said, Escobar has still put together a fantastic season. And of course, his defense certainly helps erase any offensive deficiencies he may possess. But defense is not easily quantifiable in terms of All-Star worthiness, especially since Escobar doesn’t (yet) own an entire shelf of Gold Gloves, as does direct competitor Derek Jeter.

Unless he can put together a ridiculous offensive stretch, Escobar will likely be overlooked at the shortstop position.

5. Felipe Paulino – Season: 2.03 ERA in 31 innings, 34 strikeouts, 12 walks. Last Week: 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

Paulino struggled a bit with command in his last start, although he pulled himself together for long enough to put up a reasonably effective outing. He dropped a spot this week, however, because he showed his first chinks in the armor by walking five batters.

Felipe Paulino is probably a longshot to make the All-Star game. Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The walks are an area of concern, although I can excuse them if the trend doesn’t continue into Friday’s planned start against the historically lowly A’s offense. Seriously, go look at their lineup on Friday, I’ll wait*.

*If you are one of those who believe that Jeff Francouer was overpaid by Dayton Moore last season, just be thankful that the Royals don’t owe Coco Crisp and his .440 OPS $14 million over the next two seasons. 

I’m of the opinion that the walks were a result of Paulino’s awareness that he didn’t have his best stuff that night. If he felt that his stuff was hittable, I can at least understand the control issues. Who wants to voluntarily serve up meatballs?

He’s essentially become the ace of the Royals pitching staff, and as such carries with him the expectation of recording a quality start every time out. He couldn’t afford a quick hook. I expect him to get back on track Friday and continue to pitch effectively leading into the All-Star break.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jonathan Broxton (3 saves in past week), Jeff Francouer (1.306 OPS last week!!!), Bruce Chen (just pulled career win percentage over .500)

The good news? We have in-house candidates who are actually deserving of those spots. Remember, as I stated last week, that these ranking are largely subjective. They are based primarily off overall performance, although extra credit is passed out for those who are playing well now and who have, by proxy,  earned greater expectations moving forward.

Enjoy.

1. Mike Moustakas – (Last Week: .250/.323/.571)

Moustakas hit three home runs last week, drove home four RBI, and scored six runs. He’s been as consistent a presence in the line-up as anybody. Moustakas’ overall slash line for the season rests at .295/.351/.525, and he continues to lead AL third basemen in some major offensive categories. As of Tuesday afternoon, Moustakas ranked first among AL third basemen with his .876 OPS, tied for first with 11 doubles, second in Slugging Percentage, and third place with his seven home runs. Moustakas may not have the same cache as some of his contemporaries, but right now he’s putting up enough production to trump cache.

There was no way he was going to slip down the rankings this week.

2. Billy Butler – (Last Week: .440/.516/.760)

Speaking of hot streaks, Billy Butler is scorching right now. Butler hit two home runs last week, but also put up 11 hits and, more importantly, walked four times against just three strikeouts. Butler has hit with authority for most of the season, but one flaw (for the nit-picker) had been his reduced walk rate. Even with the positive week, Butler has only walked 11 times this season, against 26 K’s. Butler’s season slash line is now an impressive .308/.369/.528, and it seems like a few more walks are the only thing keeping him from raising his OPS above .900.

Billy Butler has been crushing the ball over the past week. Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Butler’s surge has catapulted him above Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion in the all-important American League designated hitter OPS chase, as Butler’s .897 mark rests below only Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Boston’s David Ortiz among the league’s DH’s.

Ortiz is a certifiable lock, both for his present performance as well as his lifetime achievement within the game (insert PED joke here). Dunn, though, is coming off of a god awful season, and has struck out 62 times this year while sporting a .247 batting average. Obviously, Dunn’s 14 home runs and .596 Slugging Percentage are more important indicators of his success this season than batting average. But there is at least an outside chance that Ron Washington can be persuaded to choose Butler, since the game is in Kansas City.

A guy can dream, right?

3. Alcides Escobar – (Last Week: .321/.387/.321)

Escobar didn’t really do anything to lower his ranking in this list, although he didn’t hit an extra base hit all of last week. For the season he sits at .301/.342/.418, which is excellent for a shortstop with his defensive skills. Furthermore, can Royals fans be any happier with Escobar’s play? Even when he isn’t hitting the ball with authority, he manages to put together professional at-bats. If I had told you during the off-season that Escobar would have a .760 OPS in late May, wouldn’t you be jumping for joy?

I don’t want to put too much pressure on Escobar, but screw it, I’ll ask anyway. Doesn’t his play this season, combined with the great early returns from farmhand Jake Odorizzi, justify the Zack Greinke trade? And what if Lorenzo Cain eventually comes back healthy and posts a productive season? Is it time to give Dayton Moore credit for dealing Greinke for peak value while under difficult circumstances? Should I just stop asking questions and move on?

4. Felipe Paulino – (Last Week: 2 games started, 13.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 17 K’s, 4 Walks)

Ok, one more question. Remember during spring training when people wondered whether it would be prudent to start Paulino in the bullpen so the organization could get an extended look at Luis freaking Mendoza? Me neither. I’ve blocked it out of my memory, like the the Jim Pittsley era and any movie featuring Paul Walker.

That spring training “dilemma” seems like eons ago now that Paulino has come off the D.L. like gangbusters, throwing 97 mph heat along with a devastating, knee-buckling, now-you-see-me-now-you-don’t slider to a revolving door of confused and hapless batters.

Here’s a crazy (and somewhat discouraging) stat for you: after four starts for the Royals, Paulino is now tied for third on the team with 29 strikeouts, only nine behind team leader Bruce Chen.

It may seem like a long shot now, but if Paulino continues to blow away hitters he can become a surprisingly viable All-Star candidate for what has been a battered rotation.His 1.42 ERA and 10.30 K/9 ratio look shiny, especially compared to the rest of the starters on staff.

5. Tim Collins – (Last Week: 4.2 innings pitched, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA)

Filthy. That’s the only adjective to describe Collins’ performance over the past week. Collins deserves to surpass closer Jonathan Broxton in these rankings, because frankly, he has been the better pitcher this season. And this is not all about Broxton blowing another save against the Orioles last Wednesday. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. But it wasn’t everything.

No pitcher on the team has had me shouting expletives of joy more often this season than Collins. Over the course of the past week alone, he’s probably made five or six hitters look utterly hopeless. I mean, swinging a foot over a falling curve ball hopeless.

In a bullpen full of electric arms, the diminutive Collins has pitched 21.2 mostly high-leverage innings, posting a 2.91 ERA and striking out 32 batters while only walking seven. The strikeouts put Collins second on the team, miraculously, and his 13.29 K/9 ratio is borderline ridiculous.

If another token reliever is chosen to represent the Royals at the All-Star game this season, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be Tim Collins.

Honorable Mention: Bruce Chen (deceptively steady), Jonathan Broxton (free-falling but not out of consideration yet).

Escobar is an integral part of the Royals offense so far. (Photo Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Any discussion of Alcides Escobar basically has to focus on his defensive prowess at shortstop. If you’ve seen him play, you know what he can do. Especially after watching Yuniesky Betancourt fumble around for two years, seeing Escobar make plays from short left field is an absolute treat. We truly are spoiled, and it’s one of the better-kept secrets in baseball, from my perspective.

With that defense comes a questionable offense, however. Escobar wasn’t brilliant with his bat in 2011 (.254/.290/.343), but most fans were willing to dismiss questions purely based on Escobar’s defensive merit. While he showed a spark with the bat in the minors, especially at AA and AAA, that never truly materialized in Milwaukee or in his first year with Kansas City, but the Royals saw enough potential and value to sign him to an extended contract. When the Royals received Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade, I asked my brother-in-law and loyal Brewers fan what he thought of the return. In short, he basically mentioned that he’d really miss Lorenzo Cain and had heard that Jake Odorizzi would be a good piece, but was frustrated with Escobar’s weak bat (hit .235/.288/.326 with Milwaukee in  2010) and the errors that seemed to pile up too high (20 in 2010, followed by 15 in 2011 and 3 a quarter of the way into the 2012 season).

So, with that in mind, I didn’t expect much either and was reasonably happy with the offensive output the Royals saw from Escobar in 2011. After all, when you’re a defensive whiz at a “defense-first” position, lower batting numbers are more tolerable than they might be from, say, a right fielder.

Well, then we have to consider Escobar’s current line: .301/.342/.418

If he put up those numbers over a whole (or half) season, the guy should be a no-doubt All Star. Should be in consideration for a Gold Glove and potentially a Silver Slugger, depending on how the other AL shortstops wrap things up (Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, and Asdrubal Cabrera might get in the way of that pipe dream). Anyway, even seeing Escobar at fourth in AL shortstop batting average, fifth in OBP, and fifth in slugging. In 2011, those rankings were tenth, tenth, and…tenth, all of which were last among qualifying players. Now, that’s a turnaround I can work with. As for the Royals, this is easily the best first 40 games of a shortstop’s season in Kansas City since Rey Sanchez in 1999 (.299/.325/.429), which makes it even more fun to enjoy.

Looking specifically at Escobar, his isolated slugging percentage (ISO) is at .116, which is the highest in his career (including the minors). He’s already been worth about the same fWAR as he was from 2008-2010 with Milwaukee, and half of his total last season. His fielding metrics are currently low, but when they (likely) bounce back to normal, that should only boost the WAR value more. All of this is bolstered by his healthy .350 BABIP, so keep that in mind, but it’s definitely fun to watch Escobar get some hits so far this year. And when he gets on base, he can run. He has seven stolen bases so far (87.5% success rate) and has scored 16 runs for Kansas City. With 12 doubles, he’s getting in scoring position often and is already over halfway to his total of 21 doubles in 2011. For a guy that’s still just 25 and who will be in town for his prime seasons, that sort of improvement and general success is something that’s absolutely fantastic to see.

Places of concern abound, however. Escobar’s BB/K ratio is lower than those of his first two full seasons of play. His strikeout rate is the highest it’s been in the majors. He’s hitting 2.64 times more grounders than fly balls, though his line drive rate has increased. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .222 with a .300 OBP (with 2 outs and RISP, he’s hitting .278/.350/.333).

The concerns are definitely there, and Escobar’s output has sort of been a roller coaster ride so far this year as his offensive production comes in fits and starts, but as we get deeper into the season those fluctuations will be reduced and we should see his line stabilize. When it does, if he can maintain a BABIP above .300, we should be getting some solid offense from our shortstop. On a team that doesn’t know who to rely on, having a guy low in the batting order that can still get on base and bring in runs is extremely useful. And when he’s doing that while making amazing plays at short, then I’d say he’s worth the $1 million the Royals are handing him this season.

After all, FanGraphs shows his value as $4.8 million at this point. I think we’d all take that bargain value, especially considering that his guaranteed yearly salary never tops $3 million throughout his contract. And it’s easy to dream of future value, with his best offensive years likely ahead of him. If he can continue to play stellar defense and keeps ratcheting up his offensive production little by little, he’ll easily be worth the options worth $5.25 and $6.5 million in 2016 and 2017, his age 29 and 30 seasons.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, however. History still suggests this offensive success isn’t made to last, but I can definitely dream. Basically, enjoy the production we’re getting out of Escobar and sing his praises to every baseball fan you meet. It’s about time he gets plenty of recognition to go with Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas this season. But you should still talk about them, too.

In every game, the first baseman will make several putouts.  With the exception of the few times each game that the first baseman may catch a line drive, or beat the catcher back to the base on a grounder, most of these outs are preceded by another defensive player snagging the ball and throwing it to the first baseman.  If it wasn’t for Alcides Escobar, aka #ShortStopJesus, and Mike Moustakas, aka #Moose throwing leather all over the left side of the infield, Eric Hosmer wouldn’t be credited with nearly as many putouts.

Jeff Francoeur puts fear into the hearts of opposing baserunners (Image: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE)

For all their short comings, one thing the Royals have in good supply is strong defense.  The left side of the field is covered by Gold Glover Alex Gordon, future Gold Glove shortstop Escobar, and the most improved third baseman in baseball, Moustakas.  When Salvador Perez returns at catcher I believe he will significantly solidify our only current position of defensive weakness.  Eric Hosmer plays strong defense, and Chris Getz, Jarrod Dyson / Lorenzo Cain can hold their own with the best of them.  But there is one aspect of our defense that nearly outshines the others with consistently stunning and noteworthy performances – Jeff Francoeur and his lethal ability to gun down unsuspecting baserunners.

When I began writing this story, I started to research all the records for outfield assists so I could compare Francoeur to the great Carl Yastrzemski (he lead the league in outfield assists 7 times) and Roberto Clemente (led the league 5 times and many say he had the best arm ever), or talk about how some of the “so called” greatest players, such as Albert Belle and Barry Bonds were the easiest outfielders to run on, etc., etc.  And then, I decided against it.

If given the choice, would you rather read about the history of the Grand Canyon, or would you prefer to stand on the edge, peering down into the magnificent canyon below while the sun set in the surrounding desert?  Endure a tedious classical art lecture, or gaze opon the timeless face of the celebrated Mona Lisa?  I decided not to engage in a boring discussion of defensive assists and simply pause for a few moments while we take in the majesty of the greatest outfield arm of our generation.

One of my all-time favorite baseball highlights is the video of Francoeur’s perfect, perfect, perfect throw to nail the Tiger’s Jhonny Peralta at third base on August 7 last year.  Apparently, Peralta didn’t get the memo about Frenchy’s ability to throw runners out.  I challenge you to find a more beautiful, almost breathtaking defensive play – Francoeur running toward the line to pick up the ball, whirling and launching a rocket to 3^rd, capped by the ho-hum nonchalant tag made by Moustakas as if it happened every day.  And check out the Tigers 3^rd base coach’s reaction as he hangs his head during the slow motion replay, it’s classic.  Click here to see perfection.

Then, fast forward to this season, May 1, 2012 and apparently Peralta was suffering a memory lapse evidenced by his ill-advised attempt to test Francoeur’s arm again.  (Peralta would make a great subject for an SNL Weekend Update “Really?!?” skit.)  Click here to see the result, as if you don’t already know.  Don’t you just love watching Jhonny Peralta run the bases against the Royals?  On the downside, this highlight would be a lot more enjoyable if the Royals weren’t losing 9-0 in the 4^th inning.

Another of my all-time favorite defensive highlights is from September 7, 2011 when Michael Taylor of the Oakland A’s came to bat in only his 4^th game and lined what appeared to be a sharp single into right field.  Well, bad luck for Taylor, Jeff Francoeur was playing right field and as a baserunner you can never take anything for granted on a ball hit to Frenchy.  Even more amazing to me is the fact that Hosmer went to first base to cover the throw from Francoeur.  That is the definition of heads-up.  Click here to see the embarrassing moment.  Welcome to the big leagues rookie.

Last year, the ESPN blog ranked active outfielders’ throwing arms and came up with a virtual tie for the number one position between Francoeur and Shin-Soo Choo.  In 2012, Choo has one assist, Francoeur has 5.  End of discussion.

The difference between those who have the ability to throw out runners from the outfield and those who don’t is absolutely huge.  In 2012, Francoeur is tied for the AL lead with 5 assists and only 16 other guys have two or more.  Everyone else has one or none.  Francoeur’s ability to throw out runners is similar to Willie Wilson’s ability to steal bases, or George Brett’s ability to hit for average, or Humberto Quintero’s ability to swing at the first pitch and tap a dribbler back to the pitcher – it’s far above the abilities of almost any other player in the league.

One thing worth mentioning in this story is that with all his talent, Jeff Francoeur didn’t lead the Royals in outfield assists last year.   In 2011, that honor went to Alex Gordon.  Remember this when you hear someone talking about an unfair arms race, they may be talking about the Royals rather than the Russians.

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From now until the All-Star selections are announced later this summer, I’ll be subjectively breaking down the five Royals each week who I think have the best shot to make the team, based both on the previous week’s performance as well as what can reasonably expected moving forward.

All cited statistics are valid through Tuesday, May 15th’s ridiculously surprising victory over the Texas Rangers. You know, the one that was won by Vin Mazzaro, secured a series sweep over the best team in the AL, and brought the Royals record to 15-20.

2012 Kansas City Royals All-Star Power Rankings

1. Mike Moustakas – In an article posted a couple of weeks ago, I downplayed Moustakas’ chances of making the All-Star game because of the high-priced talent at his position. But in the time since that sage opinion hit the interwebs, a couple of things have broken in his favor.

One, Evan Longoria suffered a hip injury, taking him out of consideration for a spot if he isn’t voted in by the fans. Considering the fact that

Mike Moustakes may now be the logical choice to represent the Royals in the All Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Longoria was hitting .329/.433/.561 with four home runs and 19 RBI’s when he last played (on April 30th), it’s safe to say that Moustakas’ candidacy has been bolstered.

Longoria could, however, still be voted in by the fans, and perennial All-Stars Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera are also on the ballot as third basemen. So Moustakas in by no means a shoe-in. But the Royals third baseman is currently putting up a better line, .310/.371/.540, than any other eligible third baseman (sans Longoria) in the American League.

The second benefit for Moustakas is the way he is breaking away from the rest of the Royals offensively. Aside from newly promoted Irving Falu, Billy Butler is the only other Royal with an OPS over .800, and he still lags fifty points behind Moustakas. If he continues to keep his stat line above those of Cabrera, Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez, it will be hard to pick a different Royal for the big game in Kansas City this summer.

2. Alcides Escobar - I’ve stated Escobar’s case here before, and he continues to stake his claim for one the American League shortstop spots in the All-Star game. Escobar has put together several defensive highlights over the past week, including this incredible web gem on a play he made in short left field.

Escobar’s bat has held up admirably as well. Heading into Wednesday, he has compiled a line of .287/.320/.426, good for fourth among AL shortstop qualifiers with a .746 OPS.

So why, might you ask, do I now view Moustakas as a more viable All-Star?

It has to do with the competition each player faces. While the injury to Evan Longoria has opened things up for Moustakas, strong offensive streaks from Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera have hurt Escobar’s chance to make the cut. Remember that Derek Jeter is having a resurgent season, and even if he wasn’t, would be an almost certain selection by the fans anyway.

Simply put, there is more firepower for Escobar to compete with at the moment than for Moustakas. That makes a difference.

3. Billy Butler – At this point, Butler is a longshot to be the Royals All-Star representative. Sporting a .288/.340/.489 line heading out of Texas on Tuesday, Butler is pretty firmly entrenched as the fourth best designated hitter in the American League behind David Ortiz, Adam Dunn, and Edwin Encarnacion all currently OPS’ing over .900.

Butler will need a vintage Butler-esque hot streak in order to get back into the mix, and while he is due for an offensive run, he’ll still be hard-pressed to make up the 150+ OPS points he currently needs to surpass Dunn or Ortiz.

One day, Butler will get his due, but he’ll need to show more consistency and/or ride a ridiculous hot stretch before he can be considered among the elite hitters in the American League. For now, he’ll likely have to settle for being one of the elite hitters on the Kansas City Royals.

4. Jonathan Broxton -Based off of his initial performances from early April, Royals fans may be hesitant to anoint Broxton as an All-Star caliber player. But even with that disastrous opening week blown save against Oakland, Broxton has put up a stellar campaign.

Jonathan Broxton is probably the only Royals pitcher with a chance to make the All-Star game. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Those who watch every game may lament Broxton’s knack for getting himself in (and out of) trouble, but I’m fairly certain that AL manager Ron Washington doesn’t watch the first year Royals closer pitch every day. What Washington might notice, however, is that Broxton currently ranks third among AL closers with a 1.32 ERA and fourth in the league with eight saves.

If Washington is put in a position to take Texas’ Adrian Beltre over Moustakas, Broxton may be the guy he looks at to fill the obligatory Royals spot on the American League Roster.

5. Alex Gordon – To be honest, not too many Royals have distinguished themselves as reasonable candidates for the fifth and final spot on this list. But as I mentioned at the top of this post, one of the factors that will go into these rankings is expected future results.

Gordon has as much room for growth as anyone on the team  besides Eric Hosmer, except he already owns a 150 point lead over Hosmer with his .729 OPS.

Gordon absolutely deserved the All-Star nod in 2011, so it would be poetic justice to see him make a meteoric rise to the top spot of these rankings.

HONORABLE MENTION: Danny Duffy (2012 season R.I.P), Jarrod Dyson (the man just gets on base), Bruce Chen (that would be great to see, no?)

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With my ideal lineup the Royals I feel would put up more runs than they currently do . Photo Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Wednesday night against the Red Sox we saw a line-up that had everyone a buzzed given how it looked after it was publically revealed. Fans seemed to be surprised at Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas getting midweek rest and Billy Butler time at first. Results being what they are that lineup is 1-0 this season.

With the off day taking place I started thinking about what I’d do if given the chance to set a lineup. Here is my ideal lineup.

1. Jarrod Dyson, CF – Currently hitting .283 overall at the moment, in the 13 games he’s played in KC he’s led off 12 of them. In those 12-games he is hitting .286, 2-of-3 on the base paths with a .662 OPS and 17 total bases. His speed when he reaches has given the opposition fits moving around on the bases which flustered Matt Albers.

2. Johnny Giavotella, 2B – Here is the guy I’d like to hit second even though I also like Alex Gordon in this spot. The numbers I’m drawing upon are from 2011 and aren’t that glossy because Ned only hit Johnny second five times. Still he was 6-of-21 for a .286 average with a homerun, three doubles and a triple. Johnny just seems to make something happen each at-bat to get on base.

3. Billy Butler, DH – Country Breakfast has batted in this spot 17 of 30 games played during the 2012 season the difference is his batting average hitting third is .254 to as opposed to .353. In this spot he’s hit four HR’s with 14 RBIs compared to two and 9 when batting fourth. Interesting to note Billy has been plunked three times when batting in this spot.

4. Eric Hosmer, 1B – This is in good faith as I need not remind anyone that Hos hasn’t hit at all this season thus far. Nonetheless don’t let what’s happened the first 30 games make you think Hosmer won’t hit his projected numbers.

5. Mike Moustakas, 3B – The fifth spot really gave me pause because it’s a spot that I liked Alex or Moose at over Frenchy. To me in I’ve liked the small sample size I went with the long-term thought here of Moustakas. It was only one game that we saw Mike hit fifth but and he went 1-for3 this spot is where I’d like him to be while wearing a Royals uniform.

6. Alex Gordon, LF – Gordon in the sixth spot? With a deep lineup, Gordo just got pushed down in my lineup but could easily get flopped with Moose depending on the match-up.

7. Jeff Francoeur, RF –Francoeur hitting seventh is something most actually want to see with how slow he’s started. Like Gordon, Francoeur hasn’t hit in this spot since 2010 and actually had success. In 165 plate appearances he belted six HR’s plus driving in 30.

8. Brayan Pena/Humberto Quintero, C – I’d rather Salvador Perez here but nothing we can do about that  until he and Manny Pina come back. If we could combine Pena’s bat with Quintero defense I’d take that.

9. Alcides Escobar, SS – Has better numbers hitting eighth than in the ninth spot but I really like him here with the ability to turn over the lineup. While only hitting .260 in 77 plate appearances he does have 20 hits. In the ninth position is where 8 of his 10 doubles are in addition to his lone homer and triple. Batting ninth has been good for Esky’s as 10 of his 12 extra base hits have come in this spot. So far in 2012 his slugging percentage risen up to .410 from last season’s .343 average.

This arrangement leaves Chris Getz, Irving Falu, and Mitch Maier plus whatever catcher who isn’t playing on the bench. The Royals are averaging 3.9 runs but let’s make that four by rounding up and I think that this lineup could surpass that.

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If Marlon Byrd was half a foot to his left or if Cody Ross took a split second longer to secure the ball, the Red Sox very well may have won on Wednesday night.

Instead, both were involved in misplays that led to three Royals runs in the first inning off of nemesis Jon Lester with two outs. Jarrod Dyson grounded out and Alex Gordon struck out against Lester, who owned a 1.30 ERA in seven career starts against Kansas City, including the last no-hitter against the Royals.

Then the Royals got Billy Butler on base with a walk. Jeff Francoeur singled. Johnny Giavotella, recalled Wednesday afternoon from Omaha, hit a hard tailing line drive to Byrd in center, but the ball went off his glove and bounced away from him. Butler scored and Francoeur went to third.

Brayan Pena beats the tag as he heads back to second on a strange double in the first inning. Photo: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Brayan Pena doubled deep to left and Ross seemed to have caught the ball at first, but as he continued his stride, it came loose, left his glove, hit the left-field wall before he pulled it back in. The umpires ruled that he hadn’t secured the ball completely so when it hit the screen over the scoreboard on the wall, Butler and Giavotella had scored and Pena scurried back to second for a double.

The Royals left the first with a 3-0 lead and racked up 38 pitches.

Bruce Chen was solid in 6.2 innings, finding trouble in the top of the third when he loaded the bases but snuck a fastball past David Ortiz for the second out. Adrian Gonzalez doubled into the gap to clear the bases and tie the score, but they didn’t threaten Chen any other time.

The Royals added a run on an Alcides Escobar double that scored Irving Falu and Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton held the 4-3 lead.

The breaks went their way for a change, both at bat and in the field. A hard liner by Ortiz was right at Escobar. After Broxton gave up a single to Ross and walked Jarod Saltalamacchia, Byrd laid down a bunt to put the lead run in scoring position. Alex Gordon was positioned nearly perfectly to make a sliding catch of a Ryan Sweeney line drive, popped up and threw home to keep pinch runner Darnell McDonald at third. Broxton induced a Mike Aviles ground out to shut the door.

This is the kind of game the Royals would typically lose (and without Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in the lineup too), but they caught a little luck. The result gives them a winning homestand, a breath of fresh air after their 0-fer to start the season. Winning two out of four games against the Yankees and taking the Red Sox series could start some positive momentum as the Royals head back on the road with a series against the White Sox starting on Friday.

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The Changing of the Guard: Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

For many years now, whenever the east coast teams have come to town, I have diligently and faithfully attended at least one of the games between the Royals and the “Team Who Must Not Be Named.”  I have seen the line-ups that money can buy and goaded those who dared to enter the K wearing pinstripes.  I have watched the Bronx Bombers live up to their names, inflating ERAs and padding statistics.  And every year, I have this feeling that we’re just not as good as “those guys.”

Last year, I took a friend of mine, Kaleb, to the game.  Kaleb is a huge fan of Mariano Rivera.  At last year’s game, we watched Rivera make short order of the Royals in the ninth inning to secure one more save as he quickly approached Trevor Hoffman’s record.  This year, Kaleb wore his “Rivera—42” shirt to the game hoping to inspire similar results.

Brett and I have talked for weeks about taking Kaleb to tonight’s game.  Brett, who creates art professionally for Urban Outfitters on the Plaza, conspires with me to create art and writing projects.  Some of Brett’s best handiwork (in my opinion) is the cover he did for the Royals’ book I’ve been working on.  Kaleb and I met Brett at Chick-fil-A where we quickly ate and carpooled to watch the first game in the series against the beasts from the east.  As is our norm, we arrived at the stadium as soon as the doors opened and headed straight for the Pepsi Party Porch in right field.  Brett was quickly rewarded with a batting practice home run ball as a cheap souvenir.  We called out to Raul Ibanez and welcomed him home.  Ibanez acknowledged our greeting with a wave and a smile.  And then, appearing out of seemingly thin air, there was Rivera.

A fan of the “Evil Empire” immediately reminded me about River’s pending retirement, and that Rivera had been talking to management about playing at least an inning in the outfield.  It seems Rivera not only stays in shape chasing down fly balls in batting practice, but wants the chance to have his own “outfield experience.”  So, I was told, Rivera used batting practice as a time to “train” in hopes of getting into a game as a reserve outfielder.  We watched Rivera run from foul pole to foul pole, catching flies and throwing them back in to second base.  A contagious smile spread across his face.

And then, on a deep drive to left-center, the unimaginable occurred.  Rivera gave chase and jumped, landed awkwardly, and immediately fell to the ground.  Later reports would confirm what I immediately knew in my heart—torn ACL.

I, too, have experienced the joy and pleasure of tearing an ACL in a “freak” accident years ago and remember the burning pain.  With surgery and therapy, it took me a full year to return to “normal.”  Given that timeline, I fear that Rivera’s career may have ended on the warning track at the K.

The incident created space for conversation between fans of both teams.  It seemed that everyone in the stadium like Rivera, regardless of which team they supported.  No one wanted his career to end this way.  One man said, “I wanted to see him pitch tonight and watch our boys get a chance to beat the best.  I think we could take him this year.”

On this spring evening, change was in the air.  The boys of summer looked old compared to the young boys in blue.  We tried to calculate the average ages of the starting lineups, and had the Royals younger as a team by some six or seven years.  Steve Physioc tweeted, “@Royals 4 starting infielders have 7 years of #MLBexperience.  #Yankees have 50. #KC #ourtime will come.”  And youth led the way for the Royals.

Danny Duffy, whose age matches his uniform number of 23, struck out six and only allowed two runs in his six innings pitched.

Mike Moustakas, also 23, lead the way with a 420-foot home run to dead center in the bottom of the second inning, and plated two more in the fifth, giving the Royals a 4 – 1 lead at that time.

The young infield that Physioc noted turned an around the horn double play in the top of the fourth and out-hustled their opponents all night.  (Alex Rodriguez couldn’t get to a foul pop-up off the bat of Alex Gordon.  I bet money Moose would have made that play.)

“Breaks” and “luck” that money has bought for seasons finally fell in favor of the Royals.

The ninth inning serves as the perfect summary to the night.

The Royals were leading by a run and called for Jonathan Broxton to close the game.  Jeter, Granderson, and Teixeira were the scheduled hitters for “The Others.”  Derek Jeter did his best to spur on his teammates, fouling off three fastballs before getting his fourth hit of the night, a single to right field, boosting his average above the sacred .400 mark.  Curtis Granderson followed with a walk as the umpire appeared to temporarily lose track of the strike zone.

This was the point in the game when every Royals fan began to tremble.  We could read the signs.  We knew that, somehow, “luck” always favored the more expensive team.

Mark Teixeira ripped a ball and—miraculously—Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar, and Eric Hosmer turned one of the most brilliant double plays I have ever witnessed in person.

With the tying run now on third, Alex Rodriguez stepped up to the plate.  The fan in the navy shirt in front of me said, “It’s time to show these Midwest boys how it’s done.”  A-Rod fouled off the first pitch.  Strike one.  Everyone in the stadium was standing, screaming, clapping, and cheering.

The second pitch was a called strike, and A-Rod turned to argue with the ump.

If any Royals player had dared to do what A-Rod did, they would have been ejected immediately.  In fact, after each of the next six pitches, A-Rod either glanced or glared at the ump.  A-Rod tried to upstage the ump and worked the count full.  On the ninth pitch of the at-bat, A-Rod hit a dribbler of a ball toward third base.  Mike Moustakas charged hard to barehand the ball and throw on the run, beating A-Rod by half a step at first.

The Royals won.

Kaleb shook his head and smiled, “Deep inside of me, there is a Royals fan that is saying, ‘That was incredible.’”

“In order to be the best, you have to beat the best” the old saying goes.  Last night we caught a glimpse that maybe “Our Time” is closer than we think.

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Billy Butler has been crushing the ball this season, but he's not likely to make the All-Star team. Image: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

But, barring a historic run over the next month, he won’t be the All-Star representative of the Kansas City Royals*.

*Sure, it’s still possible for the Royals to earn more than one All-Star selection. But for now, I’ll still refuse to dignify that notion. Answer me this: how many unbiased observers do you expect to check a member of the AL-worst, 6-15 Royals on their respective All-Star ballots?

If the American League roster were announced today, that honor would be bestowed upon shortstop Alcides Escobar.

Escobar has been one of the most improved hitters in the major leagues this season. For some perspective on the evolution of Alcides, consider his performance this April versus what he compiled in April 2011.

April 2011 Escobar:.221/.248/.260 with a .507 OPS, four extra base hits, and a 44 OPS+

April 2012 Escobar: .295/.329/.449 with a .778 OPS, nine extra base hits and a 113 OPS+

While Escobar’s credentials may not look great compared to Butler’s, the truth of the matter when it comes to All-Star selections is that, often times, the biggest factor is a player’s position of eligibility.

Butler faces a murderer’s row of preposterously talented and high-performing sluggers at the designated hitter position. Among those registered as DH’s on MLB’s official All-Star ballot are perennial All-Stars (David Ortiz and Michael Young), oft-injured and possibly rejuvenated stars (Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, and Travis Hafner),  a young upstart (Jesus Montero),  and a wild card (Edwin Encarnacion).

Of the above listed players, Encarnacion and Ortiz have posted a higher OPS than Butler, while Hafner, Morneau, Dunn, and even Young are nipping at their heels. Along with production, there are a lot of established names on that list.

Conversely, shortstop might be the weakest offensive position in the American League. Among Escobar’s chief competition for a roster spot are one perennial All-Star and mortal lock to start the game (Derek Jeter),  a one-time All-Star who broke out in 2011 (Asdrubal Cabrera), a thought-to-be washed up vet who found new life in 2011 and now looks washed up again (Jhonny Peralta), a thought-to-be washed up former Royal who is having an almost assuredly fluky hot stretch for a playoff contender (Mike Aviles), a young up and comer who isn’t quite there yet (Elvis Andrus), and a plethora of coulda-shoulda-woulda stars who are currently performing like 2011 Alcides Escobar (Yunel Escobar, Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez, J.J. Hardy).

As mentioned above, Jeter is a foregone conclusion. No need to belabor that point. Cabrera has performed well in the follow-up campaign to his breakout 2011 season. Andrus is a dark horse who could secure his spot with a strong offensive showing in the next month.  Aviles is a non-concern, because he is past due for an 0-21 streak with 12 strikeouts and everybody knows it.

Alcides Escobar could be the first Royals shortstop to make an All-Star team since Kurt Stillwell in 1988. Image: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

Alcides Escobar is right in the mix. His offensive numbers trail only Jeter, Cabrera, and Aviles, while his five stolen bases are tied with Andrus atop AL shortstops. Defensive metrics are difficult to gauge at this point of the season, but Escobar’s reputation with the glove surpasses all of the contenders except perhaps Andrus. The 23 year old Andrus would, on account of his national exposure and expectations of grandeur, be a logical choice to squeeze past Escobar for a spot on the team, except for one fact: The Rangers already have a boatload of incredibly awesome players who are more deserving of places on the team, including Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Young, Neftali Feliz, and Yu Darvish.

Cabrera is a more reasonable option, as he is plying his craft on a Cleveland Indians team just waiting to get exposed. But with Alcides posting comparable offensive numbers, his defensive advantages could make this comparison a wash.

Remember, the Royals need someone to represent the team in their home ballpark over All-Star weekend. The case has been made against Butler. The only other legitimate option, third baseman Mike Moustakas, is up against stalwarts Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez. So that’s not happening, barring injury or miracle. Escobar is shaping up to be the best candidate.

Now that you’ve seen the case for Alcides Escobar, consider what his offensive emergence means for the Royals. If he can continue to hit the ball with authority, that 4 year, $10.5 million contract extension he signed (with two team option years) will look like highway robbery for the Royals.

And if Escobar’s efforts are recognized with his first All-Star appearance, he will become the first Royals shortstop to make an All-Star team since, gulp, Kurt Stillwell in 1988.

Now consider that for a moment.

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Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

Baseball players are a superstitious lot.  There are some superstitions that almost everyone follows, and there are some that are bizarrely unique.  For those of us who watched Tuesday’s game on TV, we witnessed Alcides Escobar wearing Yuniesky Betancourt’s shoes.  Escobar did have a hit in the game, keeping his average above .300, but the Royals still lost the game.

Some superstitions start at a young age.  Starting in little league, no one dares to step on the chalk foul line on the way on or off the field.  Maybe this is in line with “step-on-a-crack-break-your-mother’s-back” type of thinking.  However, there is always that one guy on the team who always steps on the chalk.  I have yet to observe who the Royals’ line-steppers are.  Maybe they need to work harder at converting others.

Another common superstition is not talking about a no-hitter for fear of jinxing it.  This subject was actually broached on the Royals’ Twitter time-line last week, about five minutes before Luke Hochevar surrendered his first hit of the game.  Rookie mistake.

Baseball players are people of routines and when they find a routine that works—whether it includes shirts, bats, and hats—they stick with it.  (Remember Roy Hobbs and his bat Wonderboy?)  Some players have lucky undershirts or a favorite place to sit on the bench.  Rumor has it Alex Gordon wore the same hat all season last year.  (Maybe he needs to find it for this season?)  These behaviors of routine are then transferred onto the diamond, as players us them to help focus and duplicate previous successful endeavors.

One of my personal favorite superstitions, the rally hat, started with the players and has passed on to us fans.  A rally hat is any hat worn inside-out, upside-down, with the bill pointed to heaven or to the guy behind you or in a multitude of other ways.  (A Royals rally hat is not to be confused with anything that the “royals” from the other side of the ocean wear on their heads.)  Come late innings, the losing team almost always breaks out some kind of rally cap to inspire on-the-field success.

Many players also have their own unique superstitions.

I have heard that when Reggie Jackson signed with the Angels after having multiple successful seasons with the Yankees, that he took his batting helmet with him, having  an Angels’ logo painted over the Yankees logo.

Satchel Paige reportedly had his pitching arm rubbed down with axle grease before every outing.  He believed it helped him to pitch nine innings every time.

Wade Boggs might take the cake as one of the most superstitious players of all time.  He ate chicken before every game and later published a cookbook of all of his chicken recipes.  He woke up at the same time every day (I wonder how that works in different time zones) and always took 150 ground balls during infield practice.  He drew a Hebrew word in the batter’s box meaning “life” before each at bat and would always smooth the dirt in front of him with his left foot while standing at third base.

With the Royals’ losing streak approaching epidemic proportions, many fans have tried to break the slump employing their own superstitions, and I am no exception.  For one game, I tried to comment on everything on Twitter.  The next game, I had a Twitter fast.  (Michael Engel was supposed to join me, but he broke in the seventh inning.  Weak.)  I have participated in L’il Frenchy’s “wear-a-different-Royals-shirt-everyday” and am starting to get strange looks.  I overheard one fan, who is an avid collector of Royals’ autographs, is spending time rearranging his autographed baseballs, trying to find the “right combination.”

What all of this comes down to is simple: we desperately want a win. 

I cannot help but look at the beginning of this season through the lens of Story.  According to best-selling author Donald Miller, a story is simply “a character who wants something and overcomes conflict to get it.”  At the beginning of every story, we are introduced to the protagonist, the leading character.  The first chapters of a book or first scenes of a movie show us the goodness in the character, enabling us to become emotionally attached to this character’s success.  Following the introduction to the character, we catch a glimpse of what it is that the character desires as well as the obstacles that the character must overcome in order to succeed.  The greater the desired object of the character, the more resistance he will face, the more demanding the obstacles he will have to overcome.

Let’s revisit the first few chapters of this year’s Royals story.

In the off-season, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all signed contract extensions.  The slogan of “Our Time” is adopted for the 2012 season.  Even in the middle of football season, people are talking Royals baseball.  The fan base is truly excited, believing that we’ll be surprised and rewarded on the field.

The obstacles start occurring even before the season officially starts.  Manny Pina and Salvador Perez both go down with knee injuries.  Joakim Soria is out for the season with his second Tommy John surgery.  Felipe Paulino has a strained forearm.  Blake Wood has an irritated ulnar nerve.

The season starts, and we quickly fall in love with our character.  The first time through the rotation, the Royals starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Lorenzo Cain impresses us in the field and at the plate.  The Royals’ win their first series against the Angels and come home from their first road trip at .500.  We see the potential.  We believe—Nosotros Creemos.

Round two of the obstacles:  Lorenzo Cain gets injured.  And, as of this writing, a 12-game losing streak.  No wins at home.  Zero statistical luck.  Double plays (and a triple play!) mean that there are runners on base and hard hit baseballs.  They just happen to be hit right at people.  Phenomenal reliever Greg Holland is placed on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his rib cage.  Moments ago, it was released that Cain experienced a “minor setback” in his rehab assignment, further delaying his return to the team.

Once the obstacles start coming, they will not stop until the want of the character is satisfied.  (Think “Lord of the Rings” or “Star Wars” or any good movie.)  This is the critical time for character development.  We learn how the character reacts when nothing goes according to plan, when the worst-case scenario becomes a reality.  In the middle of the pain of the struggle, the character is tested to see if he truly has what it takes to press on and continue to pursue his dream, even without any positive reinforcement.  Will he cave in to resistance or persevere through it?  This is the ultimate question.

If I were in charge of writing the story of this year’s Royals, it would go like this:

Slowly, the Royals will start winning, and slowly the players will return to the team healthy.  By the All-Star break, Cain, Paulino, Holland, and Giavotella will all be in KC and contributing to the team’s success.  The Royals will be in third place in their division, still under .500, but only by a few games.  After the All-Star break, the Royals catch fire, becoming the hottest team in all of baseball.  Perez will return to the lineup to guide the pitching staff into consistent and brilliant performances.  The team that walked through the valleys in April will be able to do no wrong.  And for the first time in decades, the Royals make it into the postseason.

The last time the Royals were in the postseason, I lived in Springfield.  In just a few weeks, I’ll be moving my family back toSpringfieldso my daughters can spend more time with their grandparents.  I’ll willingly join the ranks of the displaced Royals’ fans if this will help the Royals tell a better story this season.

For now, I’ve got my shirt on inside-out, the bill of my hat pointed to heaven, and my autographs arranged in the order of today’s lineup.  It can’t hurt.

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For young Royals fans who may not remember, the Royals and Blue Jays have a history together.  In October 1985, the Royals played the Blue Jays in a thrilling 7 game playoff that stood as possibly the most exciting series in Royals history…  for about 11 days until the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the greatest World Series ever played.  (Please note, some Cardinal fans have disputed the notion that the 7 game 1985 World Series was in fact the greatest ever played.  However, they are wrong.)

The Blue Jays have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the financially rich Yankees and Red Sox, and the pitching rich Tampa Bay Rays.  While faced with this stiff competition, the Blue Jays still compiled a .500 record in 2011, both winning and losing exactly 81 games.  In 2011, the Royals won the season series with the Blue Jays 4-3.

The Blue Jays feature a few new players on their roster this year.  Arizona and Toronto traded second baseman in a deal that sent Kelly Johnson to replace Aaron Hill who has only been a shadow of himself since his 2009 All Star season.  Hill batted .225 with 6 HR and 45 RBIs for Toronto in 2011.  He made Alcides Escobar look like a slugger.

Pouty Colby Rasmus is getting a fresh start with the Toronto Blue Jays Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Famously homesick former first round draft pick and Alabama boy Colby Rasmus came to the Blue Jays in a multi-player deal with the Cardinals last July, and played centerfield for the last several weeks of the season.  The Cardinals, and now the Blue Jays continue to offer him additional chances to prove himself due to his tremendous five-tool upside, but even at only 25 years old, patience is wearing thin with his sullen attitude.  So far, he hasn’t proved to be much of an upgrade over Rajai Davis who remains on the bench and available if needed.

Omar Vizquel, one of the greatest defensive infielders in the history of MLB, is now a bench player for the Blue Jays Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

The Blue Jays also carry one of my all time favorite players, 9 time gold glove winning 45-year-old Omar Vizquel now rides the bench for Toronto as a utility infielder.  He hasn’t played for Cleveland since 2004, but I still just can’t picture him in anything other than an Indian’s uniform.  I haven’t seen Vizquel play for a while, but he was a defensive highlight machine back in the day.  I always loved watching him make plays, the same way I love watching Alcides Escobar play right now. (Well, with the possible exception of the 12^th inning in Oakland late last Wednesday night.)  Vizquel is a great veteran presence in the dugout and the locker room.

Even with Vizquel on the team, the average age of the Blue Jays is only 29.1 (there are 10 “older” teams) compared to the Royals 26.9.

Toronto pitching was only slightly better than the Royals last year, with a team ERA of 4.32 compared to the Royals 4.44, with more strikeouts at 1169 compared to the Royals 1080.  Toronto pitching also plunked 77 batters last year, which was good for second most in the AL behind the brush-back pitch happy Boston Red Sox.  The Jays were close to the middle of the pack in most every pitching category, except wild pitches – they led the league in 2011 with 73.

The Blue Jays proved they are a socially conscious organization by giving their closer Sergio Santos paternity leave immediately after the 2012 season began.  I remember the days when players would rush to the hospital to be with their wives who were struggling to hold off the birth until after the final out of a game, only to appear in the lineup the very next day.  It wasn’t that long ago.  Santos returned to the team last Sunday and will be available to the Blue Jays during their series with the Royals.

The Toronto Blue Jays feature slugger and former Royal Jose Bautista Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

And then there’s Jose Bautista.  Bautista crushed American League pitching last year with a .302 batting average and league leading .608 Slugging, 1.056 OPS, 132 Walks, 24 IBB (some players never get intentionally walked during their entire career!) and 43 home runs.  Not bad for a 20^th round pick.

Did you know Bautista played 13 games for the Royals in 2004?  I wish I could say I predicted he would turn into the hot hitting player he has become today.  I guess it just shows that the experts know better than us amateurs, right?  Oh that’s right, they didn’t predict it either, did they?

The first game of the series is scheduled for Friday evening beginning at 7:10 pm.  This is of course a Buck Night, and a Fireworks Friday night, as well as a Thumb Band night (whatever that is) for the first 20,000 fans.  Retro batting jerseys will be distributed to the first 20,000 fans at the 6:10 pm game on Saturday, and the 1:10 pm Sunday game is a family fun day.

So take your family to the K this weekend and have some fun watching the Royals take on former Royal Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays, and get yourself a thumb band, or a batting jersey, or a little face paint while you’re there.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Apr 7, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman

Since it’s in the nature of fans to overreact to every little thing that happens in a baseball season—especially a very anticipated Opening Day—I’ve decided to participate in that tradition. I like overreacting; it’s cathartic. I like, at times, being the fan that sees the first loss of the season and then projects a record of 0-162. That is not only comical in its absurdity but also allows me to vent pent up frustration.

Unfortunately, I missed the boat on the first game, and the Royals won the second and third games. So, instead I decided to provide a look at the first series, noting some things I saw that trouble and please me. They may be things you’ve already noted; they may not be. You’ll have to read to find out (in the media-biz we call that a teaser).

Game 1

February 21, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher

First off, what is that thing growing on Jered Weaver’s face? He looks like he should be running the dunk tank for a traveling carnival. Other than that, he pitched great … damn him. But more than that, the Royals actually looked nervous for most of this game. They were swinging at bad pitches, check swinging, popping pitches up. It was ugly. Weaver was great AND Royals hitters were bad. It took that combination to produce a truly awful offensive performance.

That nervousness was a good thing though. It means they care enough to get nervous. In my mind, it means they understand their expectations and have expectations for themselves. It’s almost adorable in a way to see players get as psyched up for a single game as fans do. In baseball that’s a rarity since players usually know that game one is just as important as game 73. Their anxiousness and over-excitement is a sign of their youth, but in my mind it’s a good sign of their youth. I want players that get a little nervous for Opening Day.

On a very positive note, Bruce Chen pitched well—really well. That’s a great sign after a not-so-solid spring. He did exactly what good-Chen always does—pitched inside aggressively, changed speeds, stayed down, and mixed his pitches. It was so great to see. It makes me wonder how fans would have reacted if the team had won but Chen had given up five runs and the offense had outscored the Angels. What would the reaction be if the team so far was playing right into what people believed they would be—all offense and no starting pitching?

I’m firmly of the belief that this game turned when Jeff Francoeur was picked off at second base. Yunieski Betancourt singled next. So, if you believe as I do that Francoeur would have scored, you have to believe that game would have looked completely different. Here’s how I think it would have looked. Francoeur scores. The Royals have a one-run lead going into the seventh inning. Aaron Crow pitches his lights out seventh, but Ned Yost decides to bring in Greg Holland at the beginning of the eighth inning to protect that lead. Scoreless eighth. Scoreless ninth from Jonathan Broxton. We’re all clearing vacation time for the World Series. I believe Yost left Crow in because there was no lead to protect and he wanted to stretch Crow to save the other arms. If they had a lead in the eighth inning, Yost would have gone to Holland. If Francoeur hadn’t been picked off, they probably would have had a lead. Speculative? Yes. But still.

Game 2

This is the game of good feelings. Luke Hochevar pitched very well. Despite the good numbers, he didn’t have his best stuff. He had trouble commanding that fastball at times and left it up a few times. He was hit hard some, but fortunately, those shots went right to Royals defenders. Still, Hochevar did a great job to grind out 6.1 innings of solid pitching without his greatest command. That’s what a number one starter does—event though he’s technically not the number one.

The lineup looked much more relaxed in game two. They were more patient, got themselves into more good hitters counts, and took advantage of them. I was pleasantly surprised by Humberto Quintero. Though I don’t expect that type of performance to persist, it was nice in the moment. Alex Gordon still struggled, but did manage a walk and collect his first outfield assist of the season. I wonder if the pressure of a new contract is weighing on him, but I think he’ll come around soon.

I loved to see the execution of moving the runner over and getting him in. Do you remember? Quintero doubled to lead off an inning; Escobar sacrificed him over to third, and Lorenzo Cain hit a sacrifice fly to get him in. I know that it’s bad to give away outs, but I can’t remember how many games last season in which getting that run in from third would have really helped, and the Royals failed to do so. In that situation, if the batter can get a hit, do it. But no matter what, get the run in. Cain got the run in, and that made me happy. That made a two-run lead a three-run lead, and they are very different—at least they feel very different.

Game 3

This game was almost the mirror of game two. The Royals jumped on the scoreboard early. Jonathan Sanchez struggled at times, but gutted out five innings with only two runs given up. Hosmer did his thing and is on pace for like 100 home runs—which seems likely. With a total team effort, the Royals won the series, beating a team everyone thinks is much better than they are.

What really stood out to me was how well Alcides Escobar and Chris Getz played. Escobar hit second and showed a lot of patience at the plate. It’s looking like he’s taking the approach he had during his good stretches last season and making it work for him. He had a bunt single, which was great. He needs to do those little things to make himself productive on offense—walk, get bunt singles, take extra bases, hit the ball the other way.

Let me say that I am not a huge Getz fan. I think he’s way overvalued by Yost, but I also must admit that he hit the ball pretty well today—or at least as well as he can. He has to be the same type of hitter Escobar is trying to be. He has to utilize his speed, be patient, and drive the ball to all fields. He’s not going to hit it over anybody so he’s got to hit it where they aint and run. That said, I don’t think he’ll have the patience to continue to be productive. Escobar might.

Gordon continued to struggle. I’m not too worried, but I’m ready to see him grab a hit to build confidence. I think Gordon has issues with confidence. All the check swings and strikeouts indicate to me that he isn’t seeing the ball, committing to it, and letting his hands go. He seems indecisive, and that helps someone go 0-for-the-series. I think he’ll get on track; the question is when. The longer he goes without a hit, the harder on his confidence it will be.

All-in-all a very good series for the Royals. They took on a top team in the American League and took two of three. They played solid defense and hit the ball well. Their starting pitchers gave up only four runs in more than 17 innings. Their bullpen was a little shaky, but they should be fine. Now, they head to Oakland where they SHOULD win. Good teams win the series they should so this is a good test of the type of team the Royals are going to be. From the immediate, small sample, they might be pretty good.

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Bruce Chen was the lone bright spot in the Royals 2012 opener. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

It’s very easy to overreact to one game.

The Royals didn’t seem like they could hit much of anything from Jered Weaver and the bullpen gave up five runs in the bottom of the eighth to spoil a solid six innings from Bruce Chen in Anaheim.

Chen was solid, throwing strikes and staying ahead of Angels hitters. In six innings, he never went to a three ball count and struck out four while walking none. After a rough spring, Chen came out working the plate and going after a lineup made up of hitters swinging from the right side and held the Angels scoreless, giving way to Aaron Crow.

Crow stepped in and struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh, mowing down Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols and Torii Hunter. Pujols and Hunter especially looked lost at the plate against Crow. The eighth inning, however, wasn’t as kind to the former first rounder, as three soft singles loaded the bases.

Greg Holland took over, but despite stranding 94% of runners inherited in 2011, all three scored on Friday. An infield chopper from Peter Bourjos allowed the first run to score and kept the bases loaded, and a bases clearing triple from Erick Aybar gave the Angels a cushion. On the big hit, Jeff Francoeur was playing towards center field and couldn’t make it to the spray hit from Aybar.

At the plate, the Royals never figured out Jered Weaver’s slider. The top four batters struck out nine times and went a combined 0-16. The Royals only managed back to back singles in the third inning by Brayan Pena and Alcides Escobar, later adding two hits in the seventh inning with a Jeff Francoeur double and Yuniesky Betancourt single. Francoeur was picked off of second base before Betancourt’s hit, though, but otherwise likely would have scored.

But again, it’s one game out of 162. Greg Holland should be fine. Aaron Crow should be fine. The top four hitters should be fine. If such issues are still present in late May, then concern is warranted. Until then, today’s another day.

In Game 2 of the series, the Royals send Luke Hochevar to face Dan Haren.

Game 1 Scorecard:

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I haven’t done a very good job of hiding my devotion and fandom of Alex Gordon. Then again, I haven’t really tried. I’ve written about him enough on this site that there’s really little need to link all the posts again again.

But when the Royals announced on Friday that they had agreed to terms on the long-awaited long-term extension with the left fielder, I was left to do nothing more than smile.

We don’t really know what this means for the team this year, or next year, or the year after that. We don’t really know if this is the first, or I guess the third or fourth, sign that the organization truly is started to take a turn towards putting a competitive team on the field year-in and year-out. We don’t know if this contract will end up looking bad a couple years down the road like the Gil Meche and Jose Guillen contracts, or largely irrelevant like the Zack Greinke contract.

What we do know though is that through all the negative things Dayton Moore has done during his tenure as General Manager of the team, he at least has been true to his word when he said he was going to be aggressive in retaining the homegrown talent.

Everyone by now knows the story of Alex Gordon and how he came to be the lightning rod for fan interaction. Heading into last year, most fans couldn’t stand the guy both as a player, due to underachieving, and as a guy, due to some perceived attitude problem. He had troubles staying healthy, which didn’t fit with an athlete of his caliber and the kind of shape he keeps himself in, and he struggled at his natural position of third base, which he was supposed to be the next George Brett.

But heading into last year (with a bandwagon headed by me, I’m proudly to say) Gordon transformed not only his career, but also his image with a fanbase primed to want to believe again. His play in 2011 led to a Gold Glove at a new position, and “dominance” at a new spot in the lineup, lead off. Both new ventures in his career, both successes, and the fans were back on his side.

Quite a few Royals writers and bloggers have been leading the charge to get a new contract signed with Gordon. (Forgive me.) There wasn’t ever a big worry that it wouldn’t happen, but as Spring Training rolled on with very little news either way on the negotiations, there started to be some doubt. Come to find out, Dayton Moore and Co. were just doing what they’re very good at doing: getting things done behind the scenes, without the fans and media attention.

This contract means a lot to this organization. I’m not usually one to think that a contract with one player, in any terms, has a reflection or influence on any of the other players, but maybe in this case it does. Maybe now that three (!) Royals this Spring Training have signed new contracts it will only turn some media attention to the other young players on the roster to do the same. Eric Hosmer would be the most logical next target, and the national and local media have already set their sights on that story. Is it far-fetched? Possibly, but who among us really saw either Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez coming? It’s a nice dream to dream.

The only worrisome aspect about the Gordon contract is how the money is broken up over the next four years. Being back-loaded for $10MM and $12.5MM in 2014 and ’15 respectively, that money will be cutting into the budget that will also have to be used to cover arbitration years and other new contracts to the likes of Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland, and others. But those are small worries.

For now, this is something to just sit back and enjoy. Sure there are risks involved in giving this type of extension.  Mainly, it’s Gordon’s potential to regress back to the player he was before 2011.

But the risks are greatly outweighed by the commitment of the Royals organization, and the effort to follow through from the organization, to put a winning team of the field by retaining one of its best players.

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Alex Gordon projects as the most valuable Royal again in 2012 based on one resource. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

I’m reasonably sure that by this point, most of those who swing by baseball blogs have an understanding of WAR (wins above replacement) or at least an idea. The short form is this if you haven’t run into the acronym: take the contributions of a player on the field, come up with a baseline for a player signed off the street or from the minor leagues and then judge how much better or worse than that “replacement” player someone is and assign a value to it.

Lewie Pollis, editor of Wahoo’s On First on the FanSided Network, built a Simple WAR Calculator and shared it with the baseball community. It’s just that – simple. The goal, as he explains, is this:

The Simple WAR Calculator is my attempt to make these value stats more accessible. By inputting just a few numbers you can get a reasonable estimate of how much a player is worth. It is my hope that it will save my fellow stat nerds some trouble calculating WAR from projections as well as helping non-sabermetrically inclined fans to understand where value comes from and how much each facet of a player’s game helps his team win.

With that in mind, I figured I’d plug in some Royals hitters and see how they wind up.

I used the collected projections on FanGraphs.com to come up with an average estimation of a player’s projection. Then I put those averages into Lewie’s WAR Calculator and looked at the results.

Within the calculator, baserunning and defense are rated on a scale, so it’s not exact. I made the best estimation I could based on scouting and my own interpretations. The full spreadsheet is available here if you’re interested in seeing the collected projections and averages.

The calculator isn’t an exact tool, but it can provide an idea of potential value for Royals players (a pitching version is in the works). Players with lower projected on base percentages really took a hit. That’s to be expected. If you’re not on base, you can’t score a run and runs are what create wins. In the case of Chris Getz, who has shown skill in stealing bases and has a reputation of average defensive ability, those extra areas helped him retain value, despite replacement level on base percentage and very low slugging. Betancourt, who has no such reputation and relies on a slugging percentage that is decent for his position and is below average everywhere else, did not fare well in this exercise.

Last year’s most well-rounded player, Alex Gordon, projected to be the best again in 2012, though Eric Hosmer could easily take that spot as well if he’s able to get on base a bit more than he did last year and if he starts to develop quickly at the plate and in the field as scouts suspect he will.

I omitted Salvador Perez because it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll get and projections assumed he would get the majority of the time behind the plate. In the cases of Getz, Betancourt, Quintero and Pena, they all had a range of projected plate appearances, and it’s not clear now how often each will play. Since projected playing time for both positions (second base and catcher) ended up being a close split, so I left it’s a close enough estimation.

Cain and Escobar both benefit from speed and defensive ability, while projections are reasonably friendly to both as well. Butler’s projections were entered to consider him as a DH so defense didn’t factor in. When rated as a first baseman, his value dropped – as one would expect.

One final note: while spring training stats aren’t a great gauge of how a player will actually play once the season starts, the top players in the table are doing quite well in spring training this year. There’s something to watch during the season.

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I’m glad you asked. As always, the players I choose to feature are based loosely on their inherent value to the club, as well as a healthy dose of pure unadulterated subjectivity.

The MIRAGE DIVISION

Max Ramirez – Spring stats: .391/.481/.826 with three home runs and 11 RBI’s.

I predicted a while back that Ramirez would get play with the Royals this season, and in the meantime, Salvador Perez’ injury has made that notion a greater possibility. That being said, I find it hard to believe that Ramirez will be a 1.307 OPS player  moving forward.

Instead, it seems like Ramirez is cleaning up in the scenario best suited for him – against quadruple-A pitching. He may well get forty games on the big league roster, but a period of sustained success would be a first in the big leagues.

In the meantime, I’ll air on the side of caution.

Chris Getz – Spring stats: .333/.370/.375 with three stolen bases.

Saying that Getz is due to regress is as drab as saying that the sun is hot. Nonetheless, it is always terrifying to see Getz swing the bat well in spring training because we can never predict what Ned Yost might do under the spell of a couple gritty Getz performances. Just know this: the closer we get to the regular season, the more likely it becomes that Yost picks Getz to man second base over the struggling Johnny Giavotella (who we’ll get to later).

Mitch Maier – Spring stats: .333/.394/.500 with four extra base hits.

See Getz, Chris.

Maier has always had the innate ability to crush the ball during spring training, but so far it has never translated into consistent regular season success. He’ll probably make the team again, but his .894 spring training OPS should not illicit much optimism. Maier will be 30 in June and he’s more likely to regress at this point than make significant strides I’d love to be wrong on that though.

Wil Myers – Spring stats: .278/.278/.278 with no extra base hits

Myers wasn’t in camp long enough to form a solid opinion on, so I’ll provide you with an unsupported one. Despite hitting for zero power this spring, Myers is due for a breakout season at AAA Omaha. He’s the best of the hitting prospects left at the minor league level, and he should be more comfortable beginning his second season in the outfield. I think Myers will display enough power to go with his sweet swing to earn a late-season promotion.

Salvador Perez – Spring stats: .000/.000/.000

Salvador Perez will miss the first half of the season with a knee injury. Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

This is an easy one. Perez suffered through a wild spring training that saw him sign a club friendly contract extension, promptly go 0-15 in his first spring training at-bats, and then suffer a knee injury that will cost him at least the first two months of the season. Admittedly, all those zeroes across the board are pretty jarring.

Perez’ spring was a mirage, though, because I expect him to be a reliable player moving forward. His bat, which looked too good to be true during his call-up last season, was too bad to be true during his miniscule spring sample size. His offense should eventually be more than capable as a supporting skill behind his stellar defense.

The Royals will closely monitor Perez as he rehabs this injury and he should be re-installed as a lynchpin of the organization by the All-Star break.

Tommy Hottovy – 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Great story, seems like a great kid. The peripherals are there too. It’s funny, we aren’t supposed to take too much stock in spring training stats, unless of course there is competition at a position. Then those stats suddenly become a deciding factor in the shaping of the roster. Hottovy has been excellent this spring, but that doesn’t mean he’s making the team. There are simply too many other players ahead of him, even with the almost certain extended loss of closer Joakim Soria.

-Mike Montgomery – 20.50 ERA, 2.2 IP, 1 strikeout, 3 walks.

Montgomery was simply too bad to be believed in his limited time with the big club this spring. Royals Nation now just has to hope that Monty can avoid the type of early season swoon that submarined his 2011 campaign.

Even with the struggles, however, Montgomery is arguably the best arm in the Royals farm system, and he’ll get plenty more chances. I think he’ll pull himself together and make his major league debut during 2012.

-Jonathan Sanchez – 21.00 ERA, 3.0 IP, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

If Sanchez’ spring is not an aberration, then may God have mercy on my soul. Sanchez has made Bruce Chen look like Steve Carlton in managing to pitch only three innings this spring. Sanchez has, however, packed  a lot of work into those innings, giving up seven runs and walking two batters during what has been a disastrous introduction to Royals fans.

Something tells me Dayton Moore is not in a rush to get Sanchez signed to an extension.

The Real Division

Billy Butler – .415/.478/.732 with 3 home runs, 4 doubles, and 7 walks.

Butler has been clinical this spring in what has been a welcome continuation of his late-season surge in 2011. He is absolutely mashing right now, and seems poised to become a feared hitter this season.

In fact, Butler even showed up to  camp in good enough shape to convince Yost to give him an occasional start at first base. He appears ready to put together is best season yet. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

Alex Gordon – .405/.460/.643 with 2 home runs, 4 doubles and 6 walks.

Any lingering reservations about the long-term ability of Gordon should be put to rest by his torrid spring. I won’t take too much time breaking down Gordon, since I’m fairly sure that 99.9% of the fan base saw last season as a true breakout, but I must admit it’s been nice of him to spare us a spring worth of questions regarding his long-term prospects. This guy is ready to be the star he was always supposed to be.

Lorenzo Cain – .486/.537/.1000 with 4 home runs, 7 doubles, and 4 walks.

Lorenzo Cain's big Spring Training has been the real deal. Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

I thought Cain was too good for Triple-A last season and his scorching spring training performance this season will be taken as proof of that notion. Cain may be the most impressive Royal in Arizona right now, as his .500 spring average has just been ridiculous. I don’t think Lorenzo lamented playing in Omaha last season while Chris Getz and Mitch Maier earned major league paychecks. Oh wait, no, he definitely did.

Cain is proving that there is no fire quite like the one lit under somebody who is blocked for an entire season by wholly insufficient roster filler. Although even Cain must have understood how crazy it was that all three of KC’s outfielders had career years and stayed healthy throughout 2011.

Eric Hosmer – .367/.431/.571 with 2 homers, 4 doubles, 7 walks, and 17 RBI.

At this point it has almost become a bore to wax eloquently about Hosmer. He is one of a handful of the best young players in the game, and has also solidified himself as a clubhouse leader to boot. Interesting fact that made me like Hosmer even more this spring: he is half Cuban, and thus bilingual. It wasn’t hard to understand why Hosmer is the most popular player on the team before, but now it makes even more sense.

All that being said, is there a player you would trade Hosmer for straight up right now? I say no.

Greg Holland – 3.86 ERA with 7.0 IP, 11 strikeouts and 1 walk.

This spring Holland has shown exactly what he is. He’s a strikeout machine who is a could easily become a top-flight closer, perhaps as soon as this season. Holland is also the main reason why Royals fans seemed strangely ambivalent about the loss of closer Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery.

The bullpen should be one of the best in baseball this season, and Holland is the best of the bunch.

Alcides Escobar – .324/.359/.459 with 2 triples.

I’ve always believed that Escobar will eventually hit acceptably, so I can only hope that his spring performance is a sign of things to come. If so, then Escobar’s recently minted contract extension might be even more favorable than that of (recently injured) starting catcher Salvador Perez.

Luis Mendoza – 0.77 ERA with 11.2 IP, 12 strikeouts, and 1 walk.

Okay, I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Admittedly, I’ve frequently written Mendoza off as a rotation candidate before, but those days are over. The Royals have been insistent in their assertion that Mendoza has it figured out, and I finally believe them.

Furthermore, if Mendoza was “in the mix” for a rotation spot coming into March, then what has he possibly done to hurt his chances? Do I even need to mention that two Royals starters have put up an ERA over 20?

My prediction: Bruce Chen starts the season on the DL, Mendoza makes the rotation.

Bruce Chen – 15.00 ERA with 12 IP, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

Spoiler Alert! I think Chen might have some sort of injury, and if not, needs to fabricate on immediately. That two-year contract he signed in the off-season has an ominous feeling to it already. After a couple of above average seasons, Chen may be ready to become the rotation’s resident albatross.  I’d like to think he is simply taking time getting comfortable, but at his advanced age, it’s prudent to be skeptical. I hope I’m wrong.

Mike Moustakas – .216/.275/.243 with 1 extra base hit and 9 strikeouts.

Moustakas has had a rough spring, as is evidenced by the fact that his slugging percentage rest 32 points below his OBP.

Haven’t we seen this story before? I know it’s tempting to say that Moustakas will simply get through this and pick up where he left off last September, but I have a foreboding feeling that tells me otherwise. Moustakas may end up being more Alex Gordon than Billy Butler, as in, he might take some time to realize his considerable potential. Sure, he should be able to improve upon his Spring Training line (how could you not), but by how much*?

*Was that previous paragraph designed as  a complicated jinx intended to spark Moustakas into a fantastic April? Absolutely! I’m definitely ready for Opening Day.

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The Royals will likely ask Gordon to leadoff and aggressively run the bases in 2011 (Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

What is the job of a leadoff hitter?  His job is to get on base and score runs by any means possible.  It doesn’t matter if he gets a hit, a walk, forces an error, lays down a bunt, is hit by a pitch, bite, scratch, slash, burn, dive – anything to turn himself into a potential RBI.  Then, job number two is to move his way around the bases by getting good leadoffs, watching the pitchers’ moves, avoiding a pickoff, stealing when appropriate, taking the extra base when he can, and being aggressive.  Generally, the prototypical leadoff hitter is also fast, very very fast.

Who fits this description on the Royals roster?  Jarrod Dyson fits many pieces of this description, but his projected batting average is less than optimal, and he may not even make the major league roster.  Lorenzo Cain has the potential to fit the description, but he hasn’t demonstrated elite base stealing skills in the minors and we haven’t witnessed his abilities first hand for an extended period at the big league level yet.  How about Alcides Escobar?  Maybe, but then again, maybe not.  The Royals don’t currently have a player in the Willie Wilson mold, and they aren’t projected to have one for the foreseeable future.

So, why is Alex Gordon batting leadoff?

Alex Gordon is batting leadoff because last year he hit .303, he took 67 walks, he stole 17 bases (but was picked off 8 times), he banged out 45 doubles, he was hit by pitches 7 times, and he scored 101 runs.  (Plus 23 homers – Bonus!)  Alex knows how to get on base and he knows what to do once he gets there.  He isn’t the fastest guy on the team, but he’s not the slowest either, and he’s a good solid choice to hit leadoff.

The sight of Alex Gordon batting leadoff reminds me somewhat of former Royals coach Whitey Herzog’s decision to regularly place George Brett at the top of the order from 1977 – 1979.  Herzog’s theory was that nobody got on base more frequently than Brett and this would lead to increased opportunities for other batters to push him around and score runs.  I was an avid Royals fan in the 70’s and I must confess I wasn’t very excited about Brett batting leadoff.  Without conducting any research, my bias against this decision clouded my memory and I had assumed the Royals probably under-achieved with this approach.

I was skeptical of the decision to bat Brett at the top of the order because first of all we know George was able to hit for more than just average and on base percentage, he had power and the ability to stoke clutch base hits.  I assumed the Royals weren’t able to take advantage of this talent when placing him in a leadoff role with nobody on base.  And later in the game when he typically wasn’t leading off, he was hitting behind the batters in the bottom of the order who didn’t present as many RBI opportunities.  You would think that his RBI count would have gone down while batting first, but you’d be wrong.  Brett had 88 RBIs in 1977 (about average for his career) while playing in only 135 games, which projects to nearly 100 if he had played 155 games that season.  So, it doesn’t appear that batting first had any significant impact on his RBI total.

Brett was no slouch running the bases, but he wasn’t a burner either, so it would seem plausible that his run total would be reduced due to the difficulties he would face with scoring from first on a double, stretching a double into a triple, or challenging a strong outfield arm at the plate.  Once again, that thought would be wrong.  Brett scored the 3^rd most runs in the league in 1977.

While leading off 58% of the time (he only played in 139 games), Brett scored 105 runs in 1977 which was good for the 3^rd most in the American League that year behind Rod Carew who batted 3^rd for the Twins at 128 runs (in 155 games) and Carlton Fisk who started the season batting 8^th and finished the season batting 5th in the Red Sox order at 106 runs scored (in 152 games played.)   Hal McRae also scored 104 runs that year while batting primarily 2^nd in the order.  Brett and McRae – now that was a one/two punch!

Do you know what is conspicuously absent from a list of the American League top 8 in runs scored from 1977?  Prototypical leadoff hitters!  (None of them even batted at the top of the order!)  I don’t think anyone ever accused Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, or Bobby Bonds of burning up the base paths.  Rod Carew was fast, but not that fast.  These guys scored runs because they hit for average and they knew what to do when they got on base.  Their hitting skills and base running expertise permitted them to overcome their lack of blazing speed.

And how about the leaders of the 2011 season?  Of the Major League top ten in runs scored last year, only two of them regularly batted in the leadoff position or could be considered prototypical type leadoff hitters.  The rest of them were just like George Brett, Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Bobby Bonds, and Rod Carew in 1977.  You may recognize some of their names from 2011: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Jose Bautista.

Alex Gordon is following in the footsteps of many great leadoff hitters and run scoring leaders who didn’t quite fit the “perfect” mold and characteristics of a prototypical top-of-the-order athlete.  Gordon may not be the Royals leadoff hitter forever and my guess is his tenure in this role depends on what Lorenzo Cain does with the bat over the next few months.  Until then, I’m happy to watch Alex Gordon stride to the plate immediately after the umpire yells, “Play ball!”

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At first glance there isn’t much to disagree with in a move like this. Fans overly romanticize the roles of good defensive catchers and slick-fielding shortstops, so in locking up both of them there’s hardly any PR downside. Championships are won with pitching and defense – or at least that’s what Baseball drills into the media coverage despite some evidence to the contrary – and a team can ensure their pitching and defensive prowess when they lock up a premier defensive shortstop. Surely that makes the team better, and the contract a steal, right?

Well only if you’re in the camp of fans that thinks having a shortstop that fields like Escobar outweighs the ones that hit like Escobar.

In a reaction to the signing, R.J. Anderson at Baseball Prospectus broke down the extension (subscription required) and the risks involved with signing an offensive performer, regardless of his defensive abilities, like Escobar. The highlight of the piece is summed up with this line: “There have been 25 seasons since 1980 where a shortstop 25 or younger hit no better .260/.300/.350 in each of the three slash lines.”

Twenty. Five.

Escobar is a fan favorite in Kansas City, and for good reason. His shortstop play is better than anything seen around Kauffman Stadium in a long time. And, when the team talks in hyperbole about how good he is with the glove – although it can still border on the ridiculous – at least there’s some evidence that it is actually true, unlike with other players like Yuniesky Betancourt and Tony Pena Jr.

But, there’s still enough lacking with Escobar’s bat to at least raise the question if his glove is good enough to overcome.

Out of 20 qualifying shortstops last season, Escobar finished 14^th with a 2.2 fWAR. (Betcha can’t guess who was last – oh who am I kidding, yes you can.*) Even though WAR isn’t the great equalizer amongst stats, when you take into account that Escobar rated at least no lower than third on defense, that’s quite the drop in overall value. And it’s directly related to just how bad he was offensively.

*By the way, how great is it that the Royals are thinking about playing two of the worst infield bats in all of baseball, everyday? Betancourt and Escobar. Outs? Who needs outs?

Escobar’s defense is a cut above the rest, and with that there is some value, especially when you consider the Royals will be running out a young pitching staff in the very near future. But when that level of defensive greatness is offset by that level of inept offense, you have to really wonder just how much it is worth.

For every supposed run he saves on defense with a sparkling play, just how many is he leaving on the bases by being in the lineup for 600 plate appearances?

Unless you’re in the camp that thinks signing young players to new contracts increases the ability of the team to sign Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, or Mike Moustakas longterm, there’s really very little reason to do this now. As Anderson points out, Escobar’s only real skill is his defense, which, to this point, isn’t overly valued or measured in the arbitration process. Plus, there’s very little reason to believe signing either Perez or Escobar will have any effect on the future contract negotiations with Hosmer, unless you think it merely takes his price from $180MM to $165MM, which the Royals can’t afford anyway.

There’s nothing wrong with the Escobar contract. The Royals at the very least have a player whose name they know they can write into the lineup for the coming five seasons, and there is some value in that. But when you also take into account that Escobar was acquired for a top tier pitcher, is really the only return in that trade that fans can reasonably assume will be an important piece to the roster, and he was an historically bad offensive performer last season, that should speak a lot more than some highlight defensive plays.

It’s a nice signing. It feels good that young players will actually be around for a while, for a change. But when you look at Escobar as a whole, this contract should be met with little more than an “eh, that’s nice”, instead of excitement that the Royals have locked up a potential star.

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The Royalman Report - logo by @AHairOffSquare

We weren’t in the Man Cave, but we still got it together to have a full discussion on the Royalman Report.

It was a busy week for the Royals and we covered the Salvador Perez injury and his potential replacements after surgery. Alcides Escobar signed an extension and we covered the importance and the symbolic gesture behind it. We dug into the pitching staff, particularly the final two starting spots, the enigma that is Luis Mendoza and the overstocked bullpen.

We even tossed in a bit of Chiefs free agency talk.

Along with the discussion there are two interviews within this episode. First we talked with Jeff Montgomery about the coming season and other aspects of Royals broadcast team. After that, Michael Engel interviewed John Dewan, the author of The Fielding Bible and owner of Baseball Info Solutions. He offered insight into the methodology and significance of detailed defensive statistics.

Join us on March 24th as we have a full day of events scheduled at Kelly’s Westport Inn. From 2-6 pm we’ll hold a fantasy draft with a group of listeners. After that we’ll have a remote broadcast and from there we’ll help host the @TweetupKC crowd. More details about the event can be found here.

You can listen below or download the mp3 directly.

The Royalman Report is hosted by Troy “Royalman” Olsen with co-host Michael Engel and features Chris “Fake Ned Yost” Kamler and 610 Sports blogger Jeff Herr and airs  live Sundays at 7 p.m. central time at RoyalmanReport.com as well as on Livestream.com/RoyalmanReport.

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September 21, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop

After a slew of bad news, Thursday brought some good news for the Kansas City Royals’ fan base. The Royals announced a four-year contract extension with short stop Alcides Escobar.

The deal is four years guaranteed for $10.5 million and there is a potential ceiling of it being worth $21.75 million with two club options.

This is obviously significant news for the franchise, as the extension puts the gold-glove caliber short stop in Royals blue through the 2015 season, with club-friendly options for 2016 and 2017—Escobar’s free agency years.

Escobar joins the young core of players that are signed through the next four-to-five years, which are seasons that the franchise fully expects to compete for division titles and World Series championships. Dayton Moore and company seem to be doing their due diligence in terms of keeping around the bulk of the talented Royals youth through the 2016 season and this a very good thing.

The Royals most recently extended catcher Salvador Perez through 2019, which makes sense, considering he’s only 21 years old and plays at a much more vital position. That deal was terrific for the Royals, and the Escobar deal is tremendous as well—let’s just hope the short stop Jesus can stay healthy for more than two weeks after signing this extension, unlike fellow Venezuelan Perez.

Locking up Escobar insures above-average defense up the middle for at least the next four seasons.  It’s something the Royals have not possessed for quite awhile, before Escobar arrived. His bat produced .254/.290/.343 in his first full major league season. I, and the Royals, would prefer it to be closer to .270/.310/.360 with the same level defense. But, in a team already full of offensive weapons, locking up good defense is not such a terrible thing.

Escobar will be 30 years old at the end of the deal and entering the “downside” of his career. While he is in a Royals uniform he will be in the expected-prime of his career and should perform at his highest capability during his contract.

More importantly, the move insures the Royals infield, including Perez, is set through at least 2016, as Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Johnny Giavotella are all signed through 2018. The average age of that infield,  is currently 23 years old, for those of you keeping score at home.

With the Escobar and Perez signings, the youth movement just transformed into a contending reality for the next four-plus seasons. The pieces are in place, some question Giavotella at second base, but regardless, the core of the franchise’s cornerstones are all signed up to play ball at Kauffman for the next several years.

This is a very good thing.

Now they just have to go out and win some ball games.

Alcides Escobar is a focus for the Royals Front Office. (Photo Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)

With all this talk of extensions for young players, I really got to thinking hard about who comes first in this arrangement. Who’s the most important piece to sign? What positions are most necessary? Who has both the skill and the attitude that makes them an integral part of the puzzle going forward?

We already know the first answer. Salvador Perez was signed early last week to a nice 5-year, $7 million contract with a few option years tacked on. It’s the classic case of a low-cost, high-reward extension. It’s been covered extensively, so I don’t want to focus too much on that.

Instead, I just want to think about who comes next.

The young players in camp have made the fanbase put quite a bit of emphasis on signing some long-term. There are the obvious ones — Eric Hosmer — and the ones you think you want, though you want to see a bit more from them first — Mike Moustakas and Danny Duffy. But there are always some that you forget about before you realize they’re gone.

Well, yesterday I bluntly said (on Twitter) that I thought Alcides Escobar should be a focus. When some followers presented legitimate cases why that shouldn’t be so, I sat and thought about it a little more. And then I made up a list of the order I’d want guys signed in, which, oddly enough, follows the early part of the Royals’ desire for extensions (according to Buster Olney of ESPN):

Alex Gordon
Alcides Escobar
Eric Hosmer
Danny Duffy
Mike Moustakas
Greg Holland
Aaron Crow
Johnny Giavotella
Louis Coleman
Lorenzo Cain

We’ll see where that takes us. The first disclaimer is that 2012 performances will obviously juggle this list a bit. Should Cain be a rockstar in centerfield, he’ll vault up the list. Should Holland throw it in the dirt every time, he’ll go down. It’s all relative. Still, I think the first five are set in stone for me.

Gordon is obvious. I’m not going to belabor that point or say again what’s already been said.

The case for Alcides Escobar is much like that for Sal. He plays great defense at a premium defensive position. That alone gets guys long-term contracts. So far in his career, his bat (.252/.294/.339) has been less than stellar, not quite matching his production (.298/.353/.409) at AAA Nashville (Go Sounds!). I can’t really say that his production will shoot through the roof once he gets more time since he’s had two full seasons in the majors, but he did take a small step forward in 2011. Should he take another one, well, there won’t be any debate. And since we’ve given Sal a deal without knowing for sure if he’ll be a great batter or a subpar one, I’m not really sure why Escobar gets the shaft in that respect. He’s a great defensive player at a premium defensive position. A Sal-like contract wouldn’t be out of the question at all, if the Royals could get it.

So, given those three, the Royals would have two core pieces of their defense and a (hopefully) strong piece of their offensive locked up alongside Billy Butler.

I would think the Hosmer debate is obvious, though some may question why he’s not higher. To be frank, I believe the Royals will look for that perfect opportunity to sign him, whenever that is. With Boras in tow, he’ll probably wait until he’s garnered MVP votes or become an All-Star or whatever the case is. So, again, it just comes down to when the Royals find the right time to get him. And they’ll likely have an easier job with Escobar than with Hosmer.

For Duffy and Moustakas, they need to produce. Reports out of camp are good for both of them, from what I’ve seen, and we’ll see if that translates to the regular season. I love both of these guys, but if they don’t take a step forward over a full season, it’ll be hard to justify the contract extensions right now. In Moustakas’ case, Cheslor Cuthbert looks like he could be the incumbent should Moustakas fall, and that provides some insurance that might make it more difficult to go for that extension. Just depends on how the Royals feel about it. And Duffy’s case is that he could be a great pitcher for the Royals for many years and seems to want to be a Royal for many, many years, but he still has to produce. With some issues with other lefties in the organization right now, he’s got the limelight, but should they jump forward and pass him, it gets tougher.

The rest of the list is sort of all over the place. I feel like we need to anchor down the bullpen, a la the Joakim Soria contract years ago, if these guys can stay strong. Holland, Crow, and Coleman all have legitimate cases to stick around for years, and if they throw out another good season, they may end up doing just that.

As for Giavotella and Cain, both are guys that need to hit to stay. In Cain’s case, his defense can save him a bit. In Gio’s case, he needs to hit since his defense isn’t quite as strong. Cain will reach arbitration sooner, but locking up that center fielder for years, should he play well, could be as strong an interest to the Royals as Sal and Escobar are. Like with Gio, we just have to wait and see what he does this year. For a lot of these guys, a lot rides on their ability to stay in the game and play well in 2012.

Well, that’s what I think about it. Like I say, that list can get juggled depending on performance. When Wil Myers hits, he’ll slot in somewhere, but I don’t think that’ll be extremely soon.

Feel free to tell me why I’m crazy or how you’d rank them in the comments below.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed. You can follow Gage on Twitter.

Dayton Moore processing. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

It’s easy to make fun of Dayton Moore for his use of the term Process. There’s a lot of talk about “trusting the Process” and sticking with the Process. In a way, it smacks of having a secret plan to fight inflation (a la Josh Lyman in The West Wing). While there’s obviously a plan in place for the minor leagues (build up scouting and player development; sign high-ceiling draftees who pass through due to money concerns; build up through Latin America), he still has to field a team for the big leagues where it all counts.

At various points, Moore has stated the areas that he sees as most important to a winning ballclub:

• Be strong up the middle.
• “Every championship team has a legit #3 and #4 hitter.”
• “You can never have enough starting pitching.”

Those aren’t the only elements, but they’re the ones Moore likes to mention. While he’s built up the farm system that is now starting to blossom and grow at the big league level, some of these pieces weren’t close to the big leagues as recently as 15 months ago.

Be strong up the middle

This is awfully close to a baseball cliche, but I’ll let it slide this time due to my perception that, hey, I agree with it. Middle infielders have more chances on defense to make a play*. For instance, in the American League in 2011, middle infielders had over 10,000 total chances for both of the shortstop and second base positions. Third baseman combined for just over 6000 chances. In the outfield, center fielders combined for 5777 fielding chances – more than a thousand opportunities than left fielders or right fielders had. Since fielders up the middle have the ball in their area more often, it’s beneficial to have them capable of making the plays.

*First basemen technically get more chances, but most of those are putouts based on assists from other infielders. 

A solid catcher is vital as well, both for preventing stolen bases but also for working with the pitchers.

At the end of November 2010, the Royals had the option of Mitch Maier or Gregor Blanco or Jarrod Dyson as their center fielder going into 2011. All three are capable defenders, and in Dyson’s case, he’s the best of the group, but all three lack in their offensive potential. Moore signed Melky Cabrera – who isn’t a good defensive player but obviously worked out with the bat.

Then the Zack Greinke trade rumors started to swirl around. Moore made it known that he wanted “up-the-middle position players who are near major league ready” for the 2009 Cy Young winner.

Before Christmas, he’d gotten his wish, acquiring Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar to fill those gaps. While the Royals promised Melky playing time (having not expected to gain another center fielder in a trade at the time), Cain had a shot to win the job. Escobar was Milwaukee’s top shortstop prospect the day he signed with them and was their best overall prospect for a couple of years.

Now, heading into 2012, Cain is set to be the opening day center fielder and his defensive abilities are much greater than Cabrera’s. He’s got a chance to be productive at the plate as well (though anyone expecting 200 hits – from Cain or Cabrera – is probably going to be left wanting). Escobar could be the best defensive shortstop in the league. Despite some lapses at times last year, he showed great range, a strong arm and good instincts. If he hits at all, he’ll be of great value.

The Royals locked up their catcher of the future earlier in the week, but even back in December of 2010, Salvador Perez was still working his way up, getting his chance to be the top catching prospect due to Wil Myers shifting to the outfield. The last piece of the defense up the middle – Johnny Giavotella – is the one spot that doesn’t quite fit the narrative. While Giavotella should be fine with the bat, his fielding has been suspect. Or, more accurately, he’s not expected to be among the elite. I think he’ll work his way into being average at the position, which should be fine.

“Every championship team has a legit #3 and #4 hitter.”

Eric Hosmer.

Touch 'em all, Eric. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Lets face it, I don’t really have to convince you about Eric Hosmer’s abilities, right? He’s going to hit third or fourth for the next fifteen years.

Now, the #4 option will take some convincing for some, but the Royals are secure in making Billy Butler their cleanup man. Might as well be the man known as Country Breakfast.

“You can never have enough starting pitching.”

This is one of Dayton’s favorite lines. It’s also where the “to do list” isn’t quite done. Trading Greinke in December 2010 didn’t help and Gil Meche retiring wiped out the Royals two best starters since 2008. They opened 2011 with Luke Hochevar on the mound and a mix of others filling in while most of the pitching prospects were still yet to start in Triple A. The Paulino pickup last summer and Sanchez trade helped and Danny Duffy made the jump, so the rotation looks better on paper at least.

Moore made it clear that he was looking at trades as a primary source for starting pitching if the Royals were to upgrade this offseason. Free agency would be next, though clearly the Royals didn’t go that route.

They may not have to, either.

For all the woes that the starting pitching provided last year, if you consider only those starts by returning pitchers – Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy – and remove the slough that is Kyle Davies and company*and the group had a 4.49 ERA. The AL average for starters was 4.43.

*not to discourage Nate Adcock fans – he had two good starts out of his three last year, but that third wasn’t so great.

If (and it’s a big if) the rotation can see improvement from Paulino and Duffy and if Jonathan Sanchez can return to what he was in 2010, the Royals will be set. Additionally, they also have Mike Montgomery and Aaron Crow as potential fits for the starting five, and even Everett Teaford and Luis Mendoza had strong 2011 seasons that could put them in the mix.

It’s not quite Atlanta during the 1990s, but the Royals probably won’t be resorting to the Scott Elartons, Jose Limas and Luke Hudsons out there to fill in the gaps.

And that’s just for 2012. In 2013, Will Smith (an under-discussed favorite of mine), Jake Odorizzi, John Lamb (hopefully), Chris Dwyer and perhaps Noel Arguelles could all be fighting for a spot in camp.

...processing...processing... Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

I won’t say that Moore has landed three out of three here, but in just over a year, he’s managed to stock up the middle of the field, entrenched his bruisers in the middle of the lineup and the pitching, well, it could be worse. That’ll have to do for now, but by the end of the year, there may be optimism that all three goals will be checked off.

Then – we hope – the real fun starts.

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Will the Royals go back to Fundamentals in Spring Training? (Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE)

There is one thing I absolutely, positively don’t want to hear Ned Yost say this Spring.  It’s just five words, but they strike fear deep into my Royals loving heart.  Five words that bring back bitter memories of a time in Royals history I’d like to forget.  Five words I don’t ever want to hear again, and here they are: “We’re going back to fundamentals.”  This sentence is the death knell, the sign that all hope is lost and your season is over before it begins.

It wasn’t all that long ago that our favorite team was in such dire straits that our coach uttered these dreaded words.  The Royals ended 1996 in 5^th place and followed this up by losing 46 of their first 82 games under Manager Bob Boone to begin 1997 before he was fired.  Tony Muser finished the remainder of the ’97 season with an even worse winning percentage than Boone had begun the year.  The following Spring of 1998, Muser’s inspired solution for the Royals poor performance was to emphasize fundamentals.

If you’ve ever attended a Little League team practice you’re probably familiar with baseball fundamentals.  The coach teaches the kids how to grip the bat, how many steps to lead off the base, how to turn a double play, how to use the crow hop technique, how to stand on the rubber when you pitch, take a walk after the 4^th ball, chew gum and spit sunflower seeds, rub out the back line of the batter’s box, scratch your crotch, kick dirt on the umpires shoes, and never change your socks when you’re on a hitting streak.

With great wisdom and understanding of the complex nuances of the game, Muser cleverly focused on the truly critical aspects of baseball skill proficiency during his preseason practice sessions.  He stressed that the players must use the expression “My Fault” when they made a mistake rather than “My Bad”, and to wear their baseball caps straight on their heads during batting practice.  He also encouraged the team to start pounding tequila instead of milk and cookies.  You think I’m kidding – I’m not.  Muser will never be mistaken as the genius strategist “Bill Belichick of Baseball.”

To this day, Muser remains so completely hard-core old-school that he is probably still dumbfounded that these fundamental concepts didn’t turn the team around.  I’m old school too, but I’m not stupid and I know how to prioritize the important issues.  Every good Manager in any industry must do this correctly if he wants his team to win.  How successful was Muser’s regimen of bizarre elementary and foundational philosophies?  72 wins in 1998.  64 wins in 1999.  77 wins in 2000.  65 wins in 2001.  I’m shocked we didn’t ride this wave of fundamental excellence to a title.  (If it’s not obvious, that’s sarcasm.)

Is it really so hard for a professional to master the fundamentals?  If my boss thought I needed to work on fundamentals in a job that I had made my vocation after years of training and experience, I would be fired.  If the Royals players of 1998-2001 couldn’t master the fundamentals, they should have been fired too.

I understand everyone needs to practice so they don’t get rusty and we all have the ability to improve (and of course everyone knows American Leaguers don’t know how to bunt, mostly because it’s a useless talent, so I suppose this could have been a reasonable basic skill they could have worked on), but if these guys aren’t long past the fundamental stage by the time they arrive in the show, then they have no business whatsoever playing in the major leagues.

Fortunately, I don’t have any fear that Ned Yost will announce a focus on fundamentals during Spring Training this year.  The Royals of 2012 are perfecting their techniques, not learning them.  Alex Gordon has already won a Gold Glove and I’m confident Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, and Sal Perez are fully capable of the same accomplishment.  Four Royals players hit 44 or more doubles in 2011.  The outfield led the league in assists.  (And turned in some stunningly memorable plays while doing so.)  They had the 4^th highest team batting average in the majors and 9^th most double plays turned.  The Royals haven’t arrived yet, and they have plenty of skills that require improvement, but as for fundamentals – the team is far past worrying about this as a concern.  And for that, I am extremely grateful.

Thanks for visiting Kings of Kauffman. You can stay current on all the Kings of Kauffman content and news by following us on Twitter, Facebook, or by way of our RSS feed.  You can also send your questions to our mailbag at KoKMailbag@gmail.com and follow Alan Barrington on Twitter to be notified each time he posts a story and receive his incredibly insightful sports commentary.

Johnny Giavotella should hit behind Gordon. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

As spring training got underway, Ned Yost made an early mention of his vision for the Royals starting lineup. Like last year, he sees Alex Gordon as his leadoff hitter.

Gordon doesn’t fit the typical image of what one might think upon mention of the phrase “leadoff hitter”. Often, that produces the thought of the scrappy, quick player who would open up the game with a drag bunt and try to steal second.

Despite that, Gordon is best suited for the spot at the top of the lineup because he does exactly what a leadoff hitter should do – get on base. Gordon’s .376 on base percentage led all Royals regulars last year. When batting leadoff (as Gordon did for 89 games), he got on base at a slightly better rate (.383) but also produced a .916 OPS. Gordon in the leadoff spot produced in 2011.

Ned Yost discussed what qualities Gordon has that made him a great leadoff hitter when talking with Dick Kaegel of Royals.com – his ability to take walks, drive the ball and produce when the lineup comes back around. Gordon was the most productive player on the Royals last year at the plate, and leading him off also gets him more plate appearances over the course of the season.

For the rest of the lineup, there aren’t a lot of surprises. Behind Gordon, the Kansas City Star projects the rest of the lineup:

1. Alex Gordon – See above.
2. Johnny Giavotella – Yost told Kaegel that Giavotella’s ability to spray the ball the other way and can take pitches makes him a good fit for the second spot. The first half of that, I agree with, though Gio saw 3.65 pitches per plate appearance last year, below the league average of 3.81. It’s a small difference, but it’s still below average. Perhaps after seeing time last year at the big league level and with the knowledge that he’s slated to be the starter will allow him to settle into that role as #2 hitter.
3. Eric Hosmer – Hosmer will probably be hitting in the #3 spot for the next, oh, 15 years or so. He’s the centerpiece of the offense and after a strong rookie campaign, he’s got the highest ceiling of anyone on the team.
4. Billy Butler – After the All-Star Break in 2011, Butler had more RBIs (57) than every other major league hitter except for Robinson Cano (61), Matt Kemp (59) and Evan Longoria (tied with Butler). Of that group, Butler’s 37 extra base hits finished second behind Cano’s 40. I think he can handle the cleanup spot.
5. Mike Moustakas – Moose hopes to build on his blistering finish to 2011. He’ll likely bat fifth against right-handed pitchers. In 267 plate appearances against righties, Moose had a respectable .289/.327/.414 line. When lefties are on the mound, he didn’t fare nearly as well (.191/.258/.236) so when a southpaw is on the mound he’ll hit sixth in place of …
6. Jeff Francoeur – Over the course of his career, Francoeur has hit left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. Last year, he wasn’t too bad against righties, but his best matchup is against a left-handed pitcher (.934 OPS in 2011, .839 career).
7. Salvador Perez – While Gordon’s batting average might slip a little bit and Francoeur could always regress a bit, the one player from last year who is least likely to repeat his numbers from 2011 is Perez. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the potential to be a productive batter, though. His .362 BABIP is rarely sustainable over the course of a full season and he may end up having some streaky moments in 2012. He isn’t one to look for a walk, so he might go through stretches where he doesn’t get on base often.
8. Lorenzo Cain – For me, I’d look to bat Cain seventh ahead of Perez. Cain’s speed is tough to utilize if he’s behind a plodder like Perez. He might strike out more than most would want to see, but he’s been a solid hitter through the minors and did well in half a season in Milwaukee in 2010. He’s going to have trouble duplicating Melky Cabrera‘s 2011 numbers in 2012, but let’s face it, so is Melky Cabrera.
9. Alcides Escobar – While the expectations for his bat are low, Escobar hit well enough last year to be of value, especially considering his defensive play. Nobody should be surprised to see him batting ninth all season, but he does still have some room to grow as a hitter. Last year, he had more than 30 extra base hits, stole 26 bases and had stretches of great production. He could walk more, as he reached base at Getz-ian levels.

There’s no solid option for the #2 spot, but Giavotella is probably the best fit considering the rest of the lineup’s makeup. Cain isn’t an ideal #2 hitter but may end up there if Giavotella struggles. If Gio struggles in Surprise, it may put Getz or Yuniesky Betancourt in the lineup more often. That probably sticks Cain in the two spot.

The bottom of the lineup is saturated with right-handed batters, which might cause problems in late situations, but the Royals have lefty Mitch Maier on the bench and switch-hitting Brayan Pena if it comes to it.

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I’m sure I speak for all Kansas City Royals fans when I ask that you consider this young and upcoming team this year. I respect that you currently do not like the offers that you have received by other clubs at this time and will sit out until something to your liking comes your way.

Roy Oswalt announced he'll wait on signing with a team on Thursday hopefully this helps KC's chances Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

 At this stage of your career it’s hard to fault you for wanting to chase a championship having fallen short in previous attempts with the Houston Astros and most recently the Philadelphia Phillies. Sure the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are built to win now with their current rosters, but anything can happen in the game of baseball as you well know.

The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals are solid options for someone in your current position, but why not the Royals? I don’t need to remind you that since 1985 the club has had minimal success, however, have you seen the parts of this roster?  Your spot in the pitching rotation is assured and you could have any of the first three spots that you desire.

I think you’d fit in well with Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jonathan Sanchez and Felipe Paulino who currently project to be the team’s first four starters. You’re known for working deep into ballgames, but should the need arise, how about this bullpen bridge that can get you the win with Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and all-star closer Joakim Soria to nail it down?

Since you’re coming from the National League I’m sure you’ve got some concerns about run support and how the Royals lineup could help you out in that regard. Let me introduce you to the team’s starting lineup: Alex Gordon in left, Johnny Giavotella at second, Billy Butler at DH, Eric Hosmer at first, Jeff Francoeur in right, Mike Moustakas at third, Salvador Perez behind the plate, Lorenzo Cain in center, and Alcides Escobar at short.  That’ll be up to Ned Yost and not myself, but it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Sure you may think that fans aren’t passionate in the Kansas City market with all the losing that takes place, but after last season we cannot wait to kick off 2012. Also we’ve got a little event coming in July know as the All-Star Game, which hasn’t been in town since the 1973 season. So, these are a handful of considerations for you and for a one or two-year contract that you might be seeking.

Let me also point out that Kauffman Stadium is very pitcher-friendly with its dimensions. In addition, road trips to Comerica Park in Detroit and Target Field in Minneapolis are on the schedule multiple times within the division. We also feel that with you on board it would counter the Tigers lineup and help KC contend in the division or the wildcard.

I hope that you have all the necessary information that you may need in considering Kansas City for your 2012 pitching destination. The fan base would really enjoy having you on this staff as the team tries to change the culture.

Sincerely,

Royals fans

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I have a couple of other wish lists to share from a couple of our writers here:

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On Tuesday it was announced that the Royals had agreed to terms on a one-year contract with “shortstop” Yuniesky Betancourt to be a utility infielder for the coming 2012 season.

The news spread across Twitter just as everyone was sure the “veteran infielder” being pursued by the Royals had to be former Atlanta Brave and owner of two World Series rings, Edgar Renteria. All the pieces and arguments for Renteria seemed to fit the normal criteria Dayton Moore uses when acquiring players: Brave, World Series, reputation greater than performance.

Yuni picture and shameless promotion for Minda Haas of www.mindahaas.net

To everyone’s shock however it wasn’t Renteria but the erstwhile shortstop Betancourt, who for his brief stint with the Royals was either supremely hated by fans or merely tolerated for “being better than the last guy”.  His 2010 performance of a meager .9 WAR and negative 9.5 UZR (!) suggested that even though he may have been better than the guy before him, simply being able to write the same name next to the “6” in the lineup everyday holds little significance when that name performs at a pretty terrible level. (more…)

Yuniesky Betancourt, the Bad Penny (AP Photo)

I must have had a premonition.  In last Sunday night’s post Patience is Better than Sacrifice, I stated my belief that one of the positive aspects of the Zach Greinke trade was Dayton Moore’s nifty inclusion of Yuniesky Betancourt in the package.  What a pleasant and unexpected surprise for all of us.  We all feared that Dayton’s unnatural attraction to Yuni (read about Dayton’s early attempts to acquire Yuni in Mike Engel’s post here) would hinder our efforts to build a championship caliber team.

It was no surprise when Greinke was traded and we were very happy and relieved to learn of the group of young and talented players the Royals received in return for him.  What we didn’t expect was for Yuniesky to be included in the deal.  We were stunned.  We were thrilled.  We had renewed hope for the future.  Yuni was gone and the black hole at Shortstop was filled by a young wunderkind named Alcides Escobar.

And then just like a bad penny, Yuni turned up again.  (more…)