Will Smith in Omaha. Photo by Minda Haas (mindahaas.net)

Weird rumors bounced around Twitter as random user @RyanMFKovacs tweeted that his friend was being called up to the Royals. When asked by someone who that friend was, he answered Will Smith. No official word came from the Royals until later in the afternoon, as moves had to be made to get Smith on the roster.

Chris Getz has been fighting a hurt rib and was placed on the 15 day disabled list. To open up a spot on the 40 man roster, Blake Wood, who’ll undergo Tommy John surgery, was moved from the 15 day to 60 day DL.

Smith joined the team in New York Tuesday. The Royals announced after the team’s loss that Smith would get the start on Wednesday.

His response?

“Same game. Bigger stadium.”

Smith had a 4.01 ERA in Omaha in 2012 over 51.2 innings pitched. His best asset is control, as over 96 starts and 564.2 innings he has a 2.1 BB/9. In 2012, his walkrate was 2.3 BB/9, but if one were to omit his first start on Omaha’s opening day* his walkrate improves to 1.29 BB/9.

*Smith walked six in three innings – an uncharacteristic line for his track record. Sure, you can’t just ignore it, but if you could…

The tall lefty throws strikes and has given up hits in Omaha, but after injuries to Jonathan Sanchez and Danny Duffy the Royals are in need of arms and want to keep a crew of long relievers on hand while the rotation tries to stabilize. Smith’s stuff consists of a low-90s fastball, a decent changeup and a slider which he’s developed since coming over with Sean O’Sullivan in the Alberto Callaspo trade in July of 2010.

Smith made two appearances in spring training with the Royals, pitching four innings with no runs allowed while striking out two and walking none.

March 22, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

The optimism is looking a little less enthusiastic right about now. Soria’s out for the year. Salvador Perez is out for half the year. The starting rotation has looked pretty bad in spring training, even everyone’s golden boy Felipe Paulino—wanted to see him shine, felt like he might not, hate being right.

The shine has come off the apple a touch, and the Royals are starting to look a lot like the same team that finished last season—pretty good offense, terrible pitching. Even fan-favorite and potential-filled Danny Duffy was roughed up in his last spring start, no doubt brining on worries that all the talks of mechanical tweaks improving his command were just talk.

But I’ve decided to help boost morale a little. Why? Because I was a little stunned by Duffy. I wasn’t sure how a guy could look as good as he does and still put up bad numbers. I know Luke Hochevar has that problem, but his brain is as fragile as Rush Limbaugh’s grip on reality. Duffy though seems mentally tough. So, I re-watched his last start and saw some things that make me think that Duffy should be ok. I focused on his terrible second inning in which he gave up four runs. Here they are:

• Against the first hitter of the second inning, Duffy dominated. He threw a great 0-1 changeup for a swing-and-miss strike and went right after the hitter 0-2 to get a pop-out in foul territory. Easy and efficient.
• Alex Gordon lost a ball in the sun and essentially gave the Angels an out. It happens in baseball, but it doesn’t make it any easier to hold offenses down. That hitter, Bobby Abreu, eventually doubled to left field on a 3-2 fastball on the outside edge.
• With runners at second and third with one out, Duffy struck out Alberto Callaspo on three pitches. He started four of the first five hitters of the inning out in 0-2 counts. (if Gordon hadn’t lost the ball in the sun this inning would be over)
• Fifth batter of the inning hits a weak looking fly ball to left-center. I was shocked that Gordon didn’t get to it. He reached for it—without diving for some reason—and barely missed it. Two runs came in to score. From there, it falls apart.

If you’re not catching the theme so far, it’s that Duffy had some bad breaks in his last outing. That game could have looked very different if one or two things go his way. I know it’s a pitcher’s job to limit damage when things don’t go his way, but at the same time, a pitcher is going to have a tough luck outing from time to time. Duffy wasn’t wildly inaccurate. He didn’t walk a ton of hitters. He didn’t get hit really hard. He just had some tough breaks.

Actually, I’d say it was a pretty encouraging start. He pitched ahead of many hitters. He used an effective changeup from time to time. He didn’t nibble the way he did last season. It looked like he isn’t afraid of contact so much now. These are the things we want to see from Duffy.

I think he’s headed in the right direction and still expect him to have a much-improved season. Does it mean the Royals rotation problems are solved? No. Paulino hasn’t looked great. Bruce Chen has looked abysmal. Luis Mendoza has looked good, but who knows with him really. But I think Duffy still looks terrific despite some ugly looking numbers. When the season hits, don’t be surprised if he’s looking like the Royals best starting pitcher at times.

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Which event is the highlight of his Royals career so far? There’s the 6.2 inning championship-clinching start in the Texas League Championship Series last season, or there’s the combined no hitter with Kelvin Herrera on July 19, where Smith took care of the first seven innings before passing it off to Herrera.

This winter, Smith barely snuck into our top 25 prospect rankings, mostly because I thought he was a good example of how Dayton Moore can find nice throw-in prospects in trades (as he was the “extra” tossed in with Sean O’Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo), but also because he’s shown strong control through his minor league career – and has a bit of upside too.

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With a bevy of prospects working their way up, the organization took an approach to move older players to make room for younger to fill in the gaps, both to evaluate them for future roles, and both to get solid returns in the form of even more young players.

At the deadline, the Royals traded Alberto Callaspo, Scott Podsednik, Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel and received Tim Collins, Luke May, Sean O’Sullivan, Will Smith, Eisaul Pimentel, Gregor Blanco and Jesse Chavez in return.

It remains to be seen what the long-term impact of the moves will have for the Royals, but the main benefit of the trades is this – there’s the chance for a long-term impact.  Let’s face it, Podsednik, Farnsworth and Ankiel weren’t going to be in Kansas City in 2012, and Callaspo regressed a bit from a strong 2009 that saw him collect 60 extra base hits.

Over the next couple days, I’ll look at these moves more in-depth to determine who “won” each trade, both in the short and long term.
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With a strong background in scouting, Moore’s rebuilding of the minor league system via the draft has been touched upon, and while he hasn’t been very good at constructing a major league roster, he’s shown an eye for finding talent in other minor league systems as well. That looks like the theme behind this season’s trades – Dayton Moore found a mostly overlooked player and was able to get him included in a deal.
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All that drama almost overshadowed the returns of Rick Ankiel off the disabled list and Alex Gordon from Triple A purgatory.
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Yes, this is a bit of shameless self promotion.  And yes, you may have found your way to the article by way of the trackback link in the comments of Michael’s article on the deal.  Regardless, I truly value Nathaniel’s thoughts and opinions (though we often disagree) and wanted to make sure everyone was aware of them.

Awesome.

Then the bullpen fell apart.

It’s hard out there for Royals fans.
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At least he got Encarnacion out at first.

Lerew’s outing nicely symbolized the game for the Royals. The Blue Jays took the Royals out behind the woodshed and brought their bats with them, taking the second game of the series 13-1.
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Five times the Blue Jays had two runners on and less than two outs, but only scored in two of those situations.  The Royals helped themselves by getting double plays in the other three innings, which was enough to keep themselves alive and sneak into extra innings.
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Then the Royals worked some late-inning magic and turned it around.
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Former Royal Jeff Suppan took the hill on the other side, the type of wily veteran starter that usually gives the Royals fits. Something had to give.
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Now, on with the show: the Royals returned to Minnesota’s Target Field this week, then traveled to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati to restart interleague play.
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Well let’s just go take a look-see, eh?
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Needless to say, the move was a win for Dayton Moore. Let’s look deeper:
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Jose Guillen leads the team with 11 homers, but when he’s slumping, like he has been over his last nine games (5-32), the homers become scarce. Alberto Callaspo has been a welcome surprised in the power department, as he’s hit 7 homeruns, but he hasn’t hit a homerun since May 20. A surprising third on the team in homers is Billy Butler, who has only 5 on the year. It’s surprising because he’s hitting .342 on the season, so he’s obviously seeing the ball well. Beyond those three, where will the power come from? Whenever Rick Ankiel comes back, he’ll be a source of power, but he’s been out for more than a month and was slumping before that. Mike Aviles and David DeJesus have some pop, but nobody would expect them to contribute more than 10-15 dingers in a season. The rest of the team has no track record or scouting expectation of power.

It comes down to Butler. The hitting is great, but when’s the power going to come around?
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So what happened next? Is the honeymoon over?  Would the Royals remember that they are, in fact, still the Royals?  Well read on, as we recap the week’s happenings and trends:
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The series that my responses were intended for, Around The Blogs In 30 Days, seems to have died off as their focus has turned to other things.  I don’t blame them in the least for moving on from the series, and I must say that they do an excellent job covering the Mets on a daily basis.  That said, it seems like a shame to not share my responses somewhere so I thought I’d publish them here.  If nothing else it has been fun to look back at my responses before the season started in relation to where things stand with the Royals today.  I hope you enjoy reading the following questions and answers which appear exactly as they did when I sent them back to Mets Paradise back on April 3rd. (more…)

Additionally, Ned Yost‘s first lineup makes a lot more sense (the Royals face LHP Mark Buehrle tonight, still no Kila):
LF – Scott Podsednik
2B – Mike Aviles
RF – David DeJesus
1B – Billy Butler
DH – Jose Guillen
3B – Alberto Callaspo
CF – Mitch Maier
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt
C – Jason Kendall

Compare that with Hillman’s insistence to bat Kendall sixth in the order. Up until the 8 and 9 spots, that’s not a relatively bad lineup. Underwhelming still, but I’m glad to see Maier get a higher slot.

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One of the films they would show with regularity was Pollyanna starring Hayley Mills (later of The Parent Trap and Saved By The Bell fame). If you don’t know the story, it goes like this: Pollyanna moves to an embittered town after becoming orphaned. Her aunt is a spinster, and the town is full of general grumpiness and discontent. Until Pollyanna comes along. She refuses to see anything in a negative light, always looking for the bright side. Why, she even makes Rany look like a Grinch. One of her favorite techniques was to play “The Glad Game” – coming up with anything and everything that made her glad.

Well, the Royals are 11-17, they’ve only won one series all year. They just came out of a series at Tampa where they scored only 8 runs. Their pitchers have walked more than any other team. The bullpen has fallen apart multiple times.

I think we could use some Gladness in Kansas City.  Here’s what I’m glad about:
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So far in 2010, Trey Hillman has tried to use the same lineup in general, but he just can’t help but tinker. (more…)

All told, the Royals went 3-3 which, considering some of the performances of certain pitchers, is a small miracle. So it could be worse. But it could be a lot better. If it doesn’t improve, more people may be following Roman Colon out of Kansas City.

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For the purposes of this exercise, when it comes to the Royals roster choices, we are assuming that everyone involved is completely healthy and ready to go.   Also, any player on the team’s 40-man roster is eligible to be included in the below.   In case you aren’t familiar with the three of us: JT is Jon Twibell, ME is Michael Engel, and WF is Wally Fish.

Before we get into the breakdown, the opening day roster is as follows:

Pitchers (12): Brian Bannister, Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Kyle Davies, Kyle Farnsworth, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Dusty Hughes, Luis Mendoza, John Parrish, Joakim Soria, and Robinson Tejeda.  Gil Meche starts on the DL but is scheduled to return April 11th.

Catchers(2): Jason Kendall and Brayan Pena

Infielders (6): Mike Aviles, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, and Chris Getz.  Josh Fields and Alex Gordon start the season on the disabled list.

Outfielders (5): Rick Ankiel, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, and Scott Podsednik

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The Position Players:

Catcher: Jason Kendall (35) was given a 2-year, $6 million dollar contract in the offseason to upgrade the defensive aspect of the position.  In his 14-year career he’s hit 0.290/.369/.383 but he’s been in decline for a while.  In 2008 and 2009 he’s hit around 0.244/.329/.315.  He is an upgrade with the glove and will get on-base at a better clip than Buck or Olivo did last season, but the team has voted SLG off the island in the process.

JT: Brayan Pena (28) – While I don’t think Pena will ever be a great player, I do feel that he can be more than serviceable. He has some pop, is a switch hitter, and plays with an enthusiasm seldom found on the Royals. Jason Kendall is over the hill, and has been for some time. Give Pena a chance to play an entire season.

WF: Brayan Pena is in many ways the antithesis of Jason Kendall.  We still don’t know what Pena is capable of but that falls on the shoulders of Dayton and Trey.  At the plate he showed promise in 165 at bats last season with some power, good plate discipline (12 to 18 BB to SO), and the ability to make solid contact.  Defensively, he looks to be a project, but the Royals inexplicably refused to take a good look at him as a catcher late last season.

ME: Pena – There’s something about Pena that I root for.  Swirling in the Quad-A maelstrom for so long, I just want to see him succeed. It’ll take improvements in his defense and plate coverage to be the everyday catcher, but if he can manage that, he’ll be highly productive at the plate.

1st Base: Billy Butler (23) has been solid offensively since he made his Royals’ debut back in 2007 at 21-years of age.  Last year he took his game to another level in the second half, and showed some good progress defensively at 1B.  As the season went on he clearly became more comfortable at the plate and on defense.

JT: Butler - This is a no-brainer for me.  Porkchop can flat out hit and his better-than-expected defensive play eased my fears of him being a full time DH.

WF: Butler now knows that he belongs.  I expect big things, including 30 HR, from a confident and self-assured Billy in 2010.

ME: Butler – I have a feeling about this kid … Really, though, if he continues to grow as a defensive player (meaning average with potential to improve), he helps the club even more because it allows Hillman to use the DH spot for the more defensively-challenged trio of Guillen/Callaspo/Fields when all are healthy.

2nd Base: Chris Getz (26) will be an upgrade defensively over Alberto Callaspo and while he can’t match Bert at the plate, he does have some offensive ability.

JT: Getz - I would like to have placed Callaspo here, but his defense just isn’t up to snuff.  Getz is a quicker and better option at 2nd.   I also like that he stole 25 bases in only 106 games last season.

WF:  Getz – Dayton Moore did very well for himself and the organization when he was able to turn Teahen into Getz.  As Jon mentioned, Chris stole 25 bases in 106 games.  Perhaps more importantly is the fact that he only got caught stealing twice.  His OBP in the majors is only 0.323, but getting on-base should be something Getz does very well as he continues to get comfortable in the big leagues as his 0.369 OBP in the minors can attest.  He’s a heady, intelligent player who makes the most of his ability.  It doesn’t hurt that he profiles to be a good defensive 2B as well.

ME: Getz – When Moore traded Teahen for Chris Getz and Josh Fields, Getz was set all along to get a shot at the everyday second base position.   It’s not certain if he’s that good of a defender or not, but he should be able to be more consistent than Callaspo did last season, and will steal some bases, as well.

Shortstop:  Yuniesky Betancourt (28) remains the starter.  The good news is that he is better than the 0.240/.269/.370 player we saw in Kansas City last year.  The bad news is that he is woefully inadequate with the glove and it doesn’t seem likely that he can turn that part of his game around anytime soon.

JT: Mike Aviles (29) - I realize that his arm strength isn’t back yet, but I was encouraged to see him tear-it-up offensively in Spring Training, reassuring me that his woes at the plate last year stemmed from his elbow injury. Even though he isn’t at full strength, I still like him better at shortstop than Betancourt.   Betancourt has absolutely no plate discipline and hardly ever walks (21 in 508 PA’s last season).  His defense isn’t good enough to make up for his offensive deficiencies.   Depending on whether or not you believe in UZR and the plus/minus system, as some don’t, Betancourt was the worst defensive shortstop in the game in 2008 before the Royals traded for him last season.

WF: Mike Aviles should be the starting SS whether his arm is 75%, 85%, or 100%.  A partially healthy Aviles gives the Royals a better chance to win than a fully healthy Betancourt.  Some times things aren’t as simple as they seem but in this case it really is that simple.

ME: Aviles – I’ve discussed at length how I feel about Aviles. For one, I’m on the bandwagon no matter how his bat gets into the lineup. You can’t expect a 2008 repeat, but 3/4 of that production would still be excellent production for a shortstop. The questions, of course, are if he’s for real (I think so) and if he can remain healthy after major elbow surgery last spring (crossing my fingers).

3rd Base: Alex Gordon (26) has struggled with injuries recently and he has failed to live up to the hype that was heaped upon him.  Still, he was the consensus second best player in the 2005 draft, and he showed what he is capable of in 2006 when he captured Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year award.  All of the potential is still there and he still only has 334 games of major league experience on his resume.  The Royals need to give him at least one more year.

JT: Alberto Callaspo (26 and soon to be 27) - Some may not agree, but I think Callaspo is the better option at the hot corner over Alex Gordon.   While Callaspo may not have the home run power that Gordon possesses, Bert is a much better all around hitter and doesn’t have gaping holes in his swing like Gordon.   Although the sample size of Callaspo at 3rd base is small, I feel that he can be serviceable. Bottom line, his bat needs to be in the lineup.

WF: Gordon - Here we come to the first place where I disagree with Jon.  Callaspo is a better hitter right now than Gordon, but Bert cannot match Alex’s upside and potential and it is far too early to give up on him.  Callaspo also cannot, in my opinion, match Gordon defensively at 3B.  The sample size may be small, but Alberto proved to me in spring training that 3B is not where his future lies.  I will agree with my colleague that Callaspo’s bat needs to be in the lineup but not at the expense of Gordon and not by playing him at 3B.

ME: Callaspo – I love Callaspo’s ability to make contact, and while I think he can hit .300 every year of his life, his power surge last year isn’t in line with his numbers coming up through the minor leagues.   He is coming into his peak years, though, so it could be that he’s reaching his double-hitting potential.  Ideally, Callaspo would be able to play third base at an average level until Alex Gordon returns.

Left Field: Scott Podsednik (34) is a 0.277/.340/.381 hitter with nine years of major league experience.  If the Royals get the 2003, 2005, and 2009 version of Scotty Pods then the Royals can expect a solid season out of their new left fielder.  If they get the 2004, 2006, 2007, or 2008 version, they may want to throw him back.  Regardless of which version the Royals get, he brings speed to the table.  If he falters, and he very well could, the Royals have Maier waiting in the wings.

JT: Mitch Maier (27) – Coming off of a great spring training, Maier gets my vote to play left field over Scott Podsednik. Maier is a better fielder, and if he can hit half as well as he did during the spring, it will have been a good season for Maier.

WF: Podsednik – I wouldn’t have gone out and signed Pods in the first place, but now that he’s on the roster the Royals should use him.  That’s not to say that I’m anti-Maier.  I really like Mitch and what he brings to this team and have an inkling that he could become an everyday major league player if given the chance.  As the team’s 4th OF he’s going to get plenty of playing time as all three starting outfielders have struggled to stay on the field at times during their careers so I think that chance comes this year.  After hitting 0.213/.289/.309 in the first half of the season, Maier became a different player in the second half and hit 0.263/.361/.346.  As Jon mentions, he had a very impressive spring.  I think it is very possible that Maier will be a starter and Podsednik will be the 4th outfielder by the all-star break.

ME: DeJesus – I still don’t understand the move to right field for DeJesus.   Thankfully, Trey Hillman has relented from the idea of DeJesus hitting third (and thankfully, the Royals have solid options to hit there, as well).  I expect DeJesus to lead off, produce at his normal average but not spectacular level, and perhaps play well enough to be a valuable trade chip at the end of the year.

Center Field: Rick Ankiel (30) is not your typical player, but everyone knows the story.  What is important is that while he may be 30 years old, he is extremely young as a hitter and has lots of room to grow and improve as he continues to gain experience.  Ankiel has a cannon for an arm and also provides the Royals with a legitimate power source to pair with Butler.  I would not have signed Podsednik, but I would have taken a flier on Ankiel.  My only disappointment with this signing is that the mutual option for 2011 isn’t a straight club option and that he was reportedly promised CF.

JT: Ankiel – Last year, Ankiel was respectable defensively in center and displayed a great arm.  His bat is suspect and he needs to bounce back after a down year last year.

WF: Ankiel – I’m bullish on Rick as a member of the Royals.  He played much of the season hurt after crashing into the wall early on in the season and by most accounts the effects of that collision lingered and took their toll on his offensive performance.  Regardless of the cause, he needs to prove he can hit if he wants to remain an everyday player and I worry that hitting him cleanup to protect Butler might be asking a little too much of him.  Of course that gets us into the fun game of “if not Ankiel then who.”  When the answer is Jose Guillen, many of my concerns about Ankiel evaporate.

ME: Maier – Okay, so here’s the deal: I have a franchise on MVP Baseball 2005 on PlayStation 2 where I’ve periodically edited players to reflect the Royals’ minor league rosters, and since I’m in 2014, I’ve got a lot of the current prospects up and running. Mitch Maier hits about .320 one year for me, then follows up by hitting .210 the next year, then rebounding to surpass .300 once again the next year. It’s eerily not too far off from his usual pattern of having a great season in his second year at a new level. This will be his second Major League season … hmm …

Right Field: David DeJesus (30) shifts to RF to make room for Podsednik in LF.  I don’t think there is a doubt in anyone’s mind that he will excel defensively in right just as he did in left.  DJ is a 0.286/.358/.425 hitter over the course of his 7-year major league career.  Royals fans should expect more from David in 2010 as he’s not showing any signs of slowing down.

JT: DeJesus – A no-brainer here. You know he will be playing everyday. Although, I think he is better suited for LF and Maier would be better in CF, with Ankiel in RF.  However, we know that Ankiel was “guaranteed” CF, so that’s where he will be.

WF: DeJesus – Put him in LF, CF, or RF and I will be confident that he will get the job done.  He’s a true professional who puts the team first and is great in the community.  DJ is a player we can all be proud of and encourage our kids to root for.  It doesn’t hurt that he’s good too.

ME: Ankiel – I’d put Ankiel in right field to showcase his arm. I just don’t buy him in center, but that’s where he’ll be anyway. If he can stay healthy and recapture his 2008 production, I’d be plenty happy.

Designated Hitter: Jose Guillen (33 soon to be 34) wants to play in the field, but that ship has sailed.  It will be interesting to watch how Guillen adapts to life as a DH and as we all know it could end badly.  Jose now has 13 seasons on his resume with a 0.271/.322/.442 line, but like Jason Kendall, Guillen’s best days are in the rear-view mirror.

JT: Kila Ka’aihue (26) - Why not?  Dayton Moore preaches OBP, yet the one player in his system who exhibits a great OBP can’t seem to get any extended time in the Majors.  When Jose Guillen is my other choice, I’ll go with Ka’aihue every time.

WF: Alberto Callaspo – I completely agree with Jon about Kila and Guillen, but for me this team’s DH has to be Alberto Callaspo for the same reasons Jon mentions for Bert at 3B.  On my roster, Kila would be on the bench with Guillen given his outright release.

ME: Guillen – I really want to believe the contract year productivity theory and hope it’s true- though not so true that Dayton Moore feels compelled to extend his contract…

Bench:

JT: IF/OF Willie Bloomquist – Although nothing flashy, he is usually solid defensively and does the “little things” at the plate, i.e – laying down a bunt, moving over runners, getting a sacrifice fly, etc.  C Jason Kendall – I would put Kendall here because I feel his influence will be more beneficial in the clubhouse than on the playing field.   I have no problem at all with him being a backup catcher.  OF Scott Podsednik – I do like his speed, but not much more than that.  He doesn’t hit for power and just turned 34.   He should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder at this point in his career.  3B/1B Alex Gordon – Ah yes, the ultimate enigma.   Oozes with talent and physical strength, yet has been unable to stay healthy and put together a season worthy of the number 2 overall pick back in the 2005 draft.   Unless he can fix the holes in his swing, I’m not sure how much longer he will be in a Kansas City uniform.

WF: OF-Mitch Maier, C-Jason Kendall, 1B/DH-Kila Ka’aihue, and UT-Willie Bloomquist.  While Maier is on the bench as the 4 outfielder on the roster, he would receive ample playing time on this roster even if the three starters manage to stay healthy.   As much as I want Pena to catch every day, he’s going to need to take some breaks and a 60/40 of 65/35 platoon situation with Kendall seems appropriate.   With Gordon at 3B, Getz at 2B, and Callaspo at DH, it will be a challenge to get Kila’s bat into the starting lineup from time to time.  While he won’t start many games, he will be a huge late inning weapon as a pinch hitter.   I wrestled with weather to keep Bloomquist or Betancourt on the roster.  I honestly think Yunie has more offensive potential, but Bloomers has the versatility.   Thus, Wee Willie gets the last bench spot while Betancourt and Josh Fields are sent packing.

ME: OF Scott Podsednik – I feel like Maier’s spring performance earned him a look as the everyday centerfielder.   I just don’t buy Podsednik as an everyday player, but he’s reasonable as a fourth outfielder and to spell Ankiel if he gets banged up through the season.  UT Willie Bloomquist – If Bloomquist plays as often as he did last season, something went wrong.   He’s just fine as a utility player, though I’d rather he play in the infield more than the outfield, where he takes some weird routes to balls in play.  He’ll also steal a few bases and doesn’t strike out very often.  C Jason Kendall – I don’t mind that the Royals signed Kendall.  I don’t.   Truly.  The terms of the contract that he signed, however, are all wrong.   Kendall’s going to be the everyday catcher, and should improve the defense and wild pitch/passed ball numbers of last season, but he’s going to struggle to be replacement level at the plate.  SS Yuniesky Betancourt – Until Aviles shows he can make the throw with confidence across the diamond, Betancourt’s going to have the everyday job at short.   Unfortunately, the Royals’ lack of any depth at the position in the minor leagues means Betancourt is almost impossible to get rid of (and that contract doesn’t help either).  DL Alex Gordon – I really hope this is the year Gordon puts it together.   It’s becoming clear that expectations must be tempered due partly to his inability to avoid injuries, and his above average strikeout rate.   His ceiling gets lower every year, but he can still reach that ceiling if he stays in the lineup.  DL Josh Fields – I simply don’t know where Fields is going to fit in this lineup right now without injuries, demotions, or other moves.  He’s more suited for a DH role, but if someone gets hurt who would otherwise fill that role, I’d rather see Kila Ka’aihue come up and get a shot than insert Fields in there.  He might be “injured” for a while…

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Preferred Lineup:

We know that Trey loves to tinker with his lineup so instead of trying to predict how he will write it out for any given game, it’s probably best to just provide you with our preferred batting orders.

JT: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Mike Aviles, 3-Alberto Callaspo, 4-Billy Butler, 5-Kila Ka’aihue, 6-Rick Ankiel, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Mitch Maier, 9-Chris Getz

WF: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Mike Aviles, 3-Billy Butler, 4-Rick Ankiel, 5-Alberto Callaspo, 6-Alex Gordon, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Chris Getz, 9-Scott Podsednik

ME: 1-David DeJesus, 2-Alberto Callaspo, 3-Billy Butler, 4-Rick Ankiel, 5-Jose Guillen, 6-Mike Aviles, 7-Brayan Pena, 8-Mitch Maier, 9-Chris Getz

~~~~~

The Rotation:

#1 Starter: Zack Greinke (26) won the 2009 AL Cy Young Award and is coming off one of the 35 best seasons turned in by a starter going back to 1880.

JT: Greinke – Best in the AL

WF: Greinke – Ditto

ME: Greinke – So he probably won’t put up a 2.16 ERA again.  Add a full run and it’s still superb. If he has the new changeup in control, he’s going to be even more dangerous.  What can you say about a player who puts up one of the best seasons in the last 20 years, and still wants to improve?

#2 Starter: Gil Meche (31) started 100 games from 2006 to 2008.  Thanks in part to Trey Hillman’s pitcher abuse program, Meche managed to start only 23 games, his lowest total since 2004.

JT: Meche – The Royals need him to return to his 2007/2008 form and stay healthy.

WF: Meche – I’m not confident that his shoulder can hold up the entire year but since we are assuming everyone is healthy, this is a no brainer.  He is far and away the second best pitcher on the staff.

ME: Meche is available to come off the DL before the April 11th game which he’s tentatively scheduled to start, so while he’s on the DL, I’m effectively including him in the rotation. For Meche, it’s all about his workload and his health. He struggled when his back started to tighten last year from poor handling by Hillman, and it added stress to his shoulder which hampers him still today.

#3 Starter: Luke Hochevar (26) is 48 starts into his major league career.  He’s still trying to justify being the first player taken in the 2006 draft.

JT: Hochevar – Has shown flashes of brilliance, needs to be more consistent.

WF: Hochevar – Consistency is definitely the buzzword when it comes to Hoch and his future with the Royals.  He has the stuff to succeed and be a #2 or #3 starter, but simply having the stuff is only a small part of the battle.

ME: Hochevar – I just have a feeling that Hochevar figures it out this year. He’s been consistently getting groundballs all spring, and Kansas City’s infield defense…okay well it’s still bad but it’s not AS bad as last season. If Hochevar can maintain focus and avoid big innings, he can finally reach the potential that made him the first overall pick in 2006.

#4 Starter: Brian Bannister (29) is the sabermetrics guru of the Kansas City Royals organization, and yes that counts the front office.  BB has the least impressive stuff of the rotation but his talent plays up because he is a student of the game and “gets” the art of pitching.

JT: Bannister – Was great last season until he went down with a bum shoulder.

WF: Bannister – I was convinced he was, at best, a back of the rotation guy, but he changed my mind last season.  I still have some reservations since he appears to wear down at times and I worry about his future as he ages and loses some of the zip and life on his pitches.  That said, I’m done doubting Brian Bannister.  He can pitch in the middle of my rotation any day.

ME: Bannister – Until he hit the same wall that Meche hit after too many pitches, Bannister showed his advanced approach to pitching is no 2008 fluke. He’ll never be an ace, but he can be one of the best fourth starters in the league if he continues to improve and avoids fatigue.

#5 Starter: Kyle Davies (26) will make his 100th start in his major league career this month.  While he has shown flashes, overall the results do not sync up with his ability.

JT: Davies – Can he put more than one good start together?

WF: Davies – If you’ve been reading Kings of Kauffman for any amount of time you know that I am a big Kyle Davies believer and fan.  I know the results have been underwhelming.  I recognize that he has already logged 523.0 innings in the majors.  I know that he has a hard time getting out of the 5th inning with his pitch count under 90.  Still, something tells me that he has a future in the middle of a major league rotation if the switch ever goes on and he realizes that he doesn’t need to nibble and be so fine with his pitches.  His stuff and talent are terribly undervalued by Royals fans.  He’s still only 26 and I still believe.

ME: Davies – The question with Davies is focus and consistency. He has the stuff for a number two starter, but he never seems able to harness it. If he does, he’ll be a luxury as a fifth starter.

~~~~~

The Bullpen:

The bullpen is a little tougher to tackle in this format so we’re going to address them as a group.  The Royals chose to go with Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Robinson Tejeda, Roman Colon, and Luis Mendoza from the right.  John Parrish and Dusty Hughes are Trey’s options from the left in the team’s quest to get the ball to stud closer Joakim Soria.

JT:  Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth need to re-establish themselves in 2010. Farnsworth was horrible when the game was on the line and Cruz was inexplicably roughed up throughout the season.  Robinson Tejeda and Roman Colon showed flashes last year, especially Tejeda’s September, but they need to be more consistent for the Royals this season.  Luis Mendoza, Dusty Hughes, and John Parrish are all newcomers to the big league club. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen any of them pitch yet, so I will refrain from comment for the time being.

WF: I’ve never been a big Roman Colon fan (even before his opening day performance) and I still don’t understand what the Luis Mendoza acquisition was all about.  Fortunately one of the two, and logic would suggest it will be Mendoza, will get the axe when Meche comes off the DL.  Still, I think the team would have been better off with Carlos Rosa and Blake Wood on the roster instead.  Even if they faltered, at least we could take solace in the fact that the organization was actually giving someone from the farm system a chance by choice.  The rest of the pen is fine considering the other options on hand right now.  I actually like the left-handed duo of Hughes and Parrish though that is more of a gut feeling than anything else.  If you want more thoughts on the bullpen, don’t worry, Michael has got you covered.

ME: RHP Luis Mendoza – I don’t know too much yet, as the Royals just acquired Mendoza over the weekend. His minor league numbers don’t look great, and he’s probably a roster casualty when Meche needs to come off the DL.  RHP Kyle Farnsworth – I’m starting to believe in Farnsworth.   I just shuddered as I wrote that, but it’s true.  He should maintain his strong strikeout rates, and he doesn’t walk too many batters either.   If he can avoid the longball, he’ll be a decent option.   Just keep him out of high-leverage situations!  RHP Robinson Tejeda – Another player I’ve written to some length about, Tejeda can be electric out of the bullpen.   He’s unhittable at times, but the issue always comes down to walks.   While he may hold teams to a poor batting average against, they still get on base with the amount of free passes he dishes out.  He’s got to get that in line, but I think it’s likely one of those issues that can’t be trained away.  RHP Juan Cruz – Cruz has performed well during spring training, which gives me hope that he can regain the dominance of his Diamondback days.   He hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball, but he must have lost movement to get hit as hard as he did last year.   His control will be a bit of an issue, but if he can strike out more batters, it can balance out.  LHP Dusty Hughes – Hughes pitched well enough to get the job out of spring training, but he’s nothing spectacular.  He’ll have more of a specialist role, but should be solid.   Can’t expect too much, though.  LHP John Parrish – Parrish won the second left-handed job over Edgar Osuna, posting a 1.86 ERA in 8 spring games with 11 strikeouts in 9.2 IP.  He just got the last bullpen spot over Anthony Lerew, who was the unlucky loser after the Royals acquired Mendoza.  RHP Roman Colon – Word out of Surprise has Colon penciled in as a potentially dominant setup man for Joakim Soria.   Armed with a new slider, he’s suited for the role, if he can perform with consistency.  If he falters, this role may go to Juan Cruz (if he can bounce back) or perhaps Robinson Tejeda (and pray he gets the control problems fixed).  RHP Joakim Soria – A no brainer, as Soria shows no signs of slowing down.  He’s a top-five closer in the league and the only concern is potential injury, as he did spend time on the DL last season.

~~~~~

Prediction:

JT: I don’t foresee this season going well for Trey Hillman and his club.  They simply don’t have enough talent to compete and if they suffer from injuries like they did last year, it could get really ugly.  They are still two-three years away from making a run at the AL Central.  67-95 record, last in the AL Central.

WF: Jon is absolutely right, this team still lacks the talent needed to compete for even third place in this AL Central.  People can talk all they want about how the Central is weak or how the projections have a team winning with a win total in the low 80s.  Even if that were true, the Royals are nowhere near that level and it takes too many ifs and maybes for the optimist in me to get this squad to 0.500.  I also don’t believe the AL Central champion this year will win less than 90 games.  I’ve got them tabbed to finish with a 68-94 record which will land them in 4th or 5th place in the AL Central depending on how badly the Cleveland Indians pitching staff winds up being this year.

ME: Overall, the Royals’ lineup will have holes too large to expect contention unless something magical happens. The strength the team carries is in the starting rotation, where they have the best pitcher in the league and a staff that goes relatively deep.  If the bullpen can hold up, the defense can get close to average, and the offense can show up now and then, this Royals team should be capable of 75 wins.   That’s optimistic, but should be enough to get the Royals ahead of Cleveland (though I’d still peg them for fourth in the AL Central – not our time yet).

~~~~~

(Wally Fish is the lead writer for Kings of Kauffman and Call to the Pen.  He is also FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

In the spirit of full disclosure, I had no earthly idea how this would turn out when I started putting together the numbers.  My initial assumption was that the Royals would fare well.  We are talking about each player’s career seasons after all.  Since it is the Royals we are talking about I also assumed that they would still fall short in a number of categories.

The Methodology and Tough Decisions:

I selected the best full season from each player on my projected opening day roster.  In trying to put together my 25-man roster, I realized that the Royals are going to have to make a number of very tough decisions.  For the purposes of this exercise I am concerned with how they would perform as a team over the entire 2010 season if each player replicated the best season on their existing major league resume.  In picking my roster, I made the basic assumption that none of the players considered would open the season on the DL.

When it comes to the position players, there were three decisions I had to make to round out the bench.

First, I kept Mitch Maier over Brian N. Anderson as the 4th outfielder.  My own personal feelings aside* both players are getting equal playing time thus far in the spring and Maier is decidedly winning the battle between the two.  The other factor in this decision was that Anderson has an option remaining while Maier doesn’t.  In the end this one really wasn’t a tough call considering what the two players have shown thus far in Surprise.

*Mitch Maier is a better player than Brian Anderson.

Second, Willie Bloomquist doesn’t make the team and gets released.  With a healthy Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo on the bench, there just isn’t room for Wee Willie.  Even if we factor in that Alex Gordon will probably start the season on the 15-day DL, I still don’t see how the Royals can keep Bloomquist.

Third, Josh Fields gets put on waivers and the Royals cross their fingers that no one claims him before they can get him to Triple-A Omaha.  In reality, Fields will most likely make the team because of Gordon’s probable DL stint, but his days with the team may be numbered unless someone else is cut or traded.

Before moving on to the pitching staff, I think it is important to recognize that the above shows some progress in terms of adding talent at the major league level.  Last season there was no question that Wee Willie B had a spot on the opening day roster.  Heading into 2010, I don’t see how the organization can justify keeping him around if they are trying to win and field the best team based on the options at hand.  This is a sign of minor progress in my book, but it is progress nonetheless.

To round out the pitching staff, a few decisions had to be made with regard to the final bullpen spots, but the rotation and part of the bullpen was pretty easy to put into place.  The 5th spot in the rotation remains up for grabs between Kyle Davies and Robinson Tejeda, but regardless of who claims the spot by opening day there is little doubt in my mind that the “loser” will wind up in the bullpen and will make some starts during the season.

[Update]  Kyle Davies got destroyed again on Sunday.  I am still holding out hope that he has a bright future, but his spring training performance is making it very hard to maintain my position.  Spring numbers mean next to nothing but Davies is looking more and more like he is bullpen bound.

First, Carlos Rosa heads back to Triple-A Omaha, at least to start the year.  This move is based on the working assumption that Rosa has a fourth option to use as Bob Dutton reported back on February 17th.  If this is incorrect, then he stays on the roster and Roman Colon, who is definitely out of options, gets the boot.

Second, Victor Marte joins Rosa in the Triple-A bullpen.  Again referring to Dutton’s options chart, it appears that Marte has all three of his options remaining.  I’m not sure Victor has much long term value to the Royals, but they don’t have to get rid of him so they may as well keep him around.

Third, all of the pitchers who received minor league deals fail to make the team.  This one isn’t much of a stretch though RHP-Josh Rupe has been one of the more impressive bullpen options thus far this spring.

A Reason For Hope?

As you look at the list that follows, you will notice that a majority of the players on my 25-man roster had their best season in either 2008 or 2009.  I’m not sure if this is a reason for hope or not.  It is also worth pointing out that Jose Guillen, Scott Podsednik, and Jason Kendall are the only position players who have close to a zero percent chance of having a career season.  The rest of the ten offensive players very well could perform at a higher level in 2010 than they have at any prior season.

~~~~~

The Position Players:

Catcher:  Jason Kendall (1998)
First Base:  Billy Butler (2009)
Second Base:  Chris Getz (2009)
Third Base:  Alex Gordon (2008)
Shortstop:  Yuniesky Betancourt (2007)
Left Field:  Scott Podsednik (2003)
Center Field:  Rick Ankiel (2008)
Right Field:  David DeJesus (2008)
Designated Hitter:  Jose Guillen (2003)
Bench C:  Brayan Pena (2009)
Bench 2B/3B:  Alberto Callaspo (2009)
Bench 2B/SS:  Mike Aviles (2008)
Bench OF:  Mitch Maier (2009)

~~~~~

The Pitching Staff:

Starter #1:  RHP-Zack Greinke (2009)
Starter #2:  RHP-Gil Meche (2007)
Starter #3:  RHP-Brian Bannister (2007)
Starter #4:  RHP-Luke Hochevar (2009)
Starter #5:  RHP-Kyle Davies (2008)
Reliever:  RHP-Robinson Tejeda (2009)
Reliever:  RHP-Kyle Farnsworth (2001)
Reliever:  RHP-Juan Cruz (2008)
Reliever:  RHP-Roman Colon (2009)
Reliever:  LHP-Dusty Hughes (2009)
Reliever:  LHP-Edgar Osuna (2009)
Closer:  RHP-Joakim Soria (2008)

While we are on the topic of pitching I should point out that I went ahead and used Hochevar’s 2009 season instead of his 2008.  While 2009 was worse in terms of ERA+, he did drop his BB/9 and increase his SO/9 and obviously his SO/BB.  His H/9 increased from 10.0 to 10.5 which caused his WHIP to jump just a bit from 1.47 to 1.49.  Hoch’s big downfall in 2009 was the jump in his HR/9 which went from 0.8 to 1.4.

~~~~~

So if each and every player on the above listed 25-man roster managed to duplicate their career-best seasons in 2010, how would they stack up against the 2009 AL average and the 2009 AL Central leader in each category?

I calculated the data based on my 25-man roster and realized that I needed to adjust the scale of the Royals team.  In 2009 the AL average for team at bats was 5,569 and the AL Central high was 5,641.  My Royals roster came in a 6,022 so I recalculated the offensive totals for Kansas City based on 5,600 at bats.  On the pitching side, my Royals staff threw 1,282.67 innings while the AL average was 1,444 and the AL Central high was 1,459.  The only stat I had to adjust was runs allowed and did so based off the AL average innings mark.

Let’s start with the Royals, each at their best (RCY), against the 2009 AL average team (09 ALAv):

The above shows the Royals coming out ahead in almost every category.  They fail to best the AL average in only two places and they are the categories any fan would probably guess right off the bat given the players that make up the roster.  Not only do they fall short in the HR category relative to the league average, they fall 28 short.  Last year Kansas City finished second to last in the AL with 144, using their total of 155 based on the above they would have finished … second to last in the AL.  When it comes to drawing walks the real 2009 Royals generated 457 BB good for another second to last finish.  Using their career years would cause them to rise just one spot to finish 12th last year instead of 13th.  The 822 runs scored by this career year roster would tie them for the 5th best season, with the 1977 team, in franchise history.  In 2009 their run total would have placed them 4th in the AL, five runs ahead of the Minnesota Twins.

The Royals offense, even based on career years, still wouldn’t dominate compared to the other AL team in 2009.  The pitching staff is an entirely different story.  The team finished 2009 with 842 runs allowed which was good for a 12th place finish out of the 14 AL teams.  Using their career years, their 635 runs allowed would rank them first in the AL by a whopping 57 runs.  Runs scored was just one of the categories in which they would have led the American League.  They would fail to finish first in BB/9 and SO/9.  Their 3.0 BB/9 team mark would fall just shy of besting the Minnesota Twins 2009 mark of 2.9.  The Royals 7.6 SO/9 would finish 3rd in the AL behind the Yankees 7.8 and Red Sox 7.7.

We’ve looked at the career year Royals in relation to the AL averages, so now lets take a look at how they stack up against the best AL Central finisher in each category.

It should be pointed out that the AL Central leader in 3B and SO/9 was in fact the Royals.

In addition to looking at the Royals production if each of their players matched their career best seasons, I thought it would also be interesting to look at how the numbers would compare if we used their career numbers based on a 162 game average (RC162a).

With that comparison made, we can now put all the columns together.

The above fails to consider defensive statistics all together, but it does give us a range of how productive and effective the Royals 25-man roster will be over the course of the 2010 season.  If they all collectively match their career best seasons, the Royals will be one of the best teams in the AL with a pitching staff that is off the charts with a productive offense to back it up.  The current roster is going to be well below average when it comes to home runs no matter how you slice it, but if each player matches their career best season the Kansas City Royals will be the 2010 AL Central division champions.  This is, of course, the best case scenario.

If the Royals match their career stat line when putting their career numbers into 162 game average, the picture gets a little less rosy.  In this light the offense would finish above the AL average in 5 of the 10 offensive categories and below the AL average in the other 5.  The pitching staff would be above average in 3 of the 7 categories and below average in the other 4, but the numbers are close.  I don’t know if this team could win the AL Central, but it would certainly be competitive and probably give us another season like 2003.

I don’t think were are going to see this team match their collective career averages, let alone collectively have career years.  However, this does provide a scenario, however unrealistic it is, that uses the current roster and winds up with a competitive Kansas City Royals team for 2010.  I’m still predicting a last place finish, but a little positive thought never hurts!

(Wally Fish is the lead blogger for Kings of Kauffman and FanSided’s MLB Director.  Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)